War Pauses. Crypto Explodes. New Cycle Begins? #CryptoTownHall

Summary

The Wolf Of All Streets — Crypto Town Hall

Episode: War Pauses. Crypto Explodes. New Cycle Begins? #CryptoTownHall

Host: Scott Melker
Date: April 8, 2026

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Overview

This episode of Crypto Town Hall aired during a tumultuous period in global politics and financial markets. Host Scott Melker and a dynamic panel of traders, analysts, and industry experts dissect the intersection of geopolitical developments in the Middle East, the evolution of the petrodollar, significant shifts in crypto adoption, regulatory news, and the core narratives shaping the crypto market. The show also features a guest interview with Sheikh Saud Bin Faisal Kasimi, President of the Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network, introducing an ambitious blockchain project geared toward 56 Commonwealth countries.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. War Pauses and Market Volatility (00:00–07:45)

• Immediate Market Reactions:
  • The panel opens with discussion of recent war developments in the Middle East and global market reactions.
  • Short squeezes, not organic rallies, explain sudden surges in Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and silver ([00:20]).
    • “This is not a bitcoin rally... it’s a ‘see who is short what and afraid of getting run over’ rally.” — Dave ([00:20])
  • Oil prices at $92–93/bbl, gold and silver up, S&P up 2.5–3%; signals of risk-on shifting quickly to risk-off.
• Caution Amid Headlines:
  • Markets move amid rumor, uncertainty and unwinding positions, not new faith in Bitcoin fundamentals.
  • Consensus: Best to “give it a week or two” before reacting to headlines ([02:18]).

2. Geopolitics, Oil, and the Petrodollar at a Crossroads (04:20–28:04)

• Strait of Hormuz Complexity:
  • Repeated attacks and unclear information lead to instability and high insurance costs, effectively closing the oil passage ([09:09]).
  • “It’s the threat of hitting a mine... The insurance companies… make it cost prohibitive to go through.” — Dave ([09:09])
  • Emergence of stablecoin and digital payments as part of oil supply negotiations.
• Decoupling of Petrodollar System:
  • Analysts agree that bypassing the petrodollar is no longer theory, but fact; Russia and China transact oil outside dollars ([24:15]).
  • Saudi Arabia’s 2024 decision not to renew the petrodollar agreement is viewed as historic.
  • Stablecoins (USDT, possibly others) poised as the next “third act” in the dollar’s global story.
    • “We’re looking at the dollar’s third act... Bretton Woods, then Nixon’s pivot, now potentially stablecoins as a new flywheel for treasury demand.” — Carlo ([21:25])
• Role of Institutional and Regulatory Players:
  • Importance of treasury policy and Fed chair selection for Bitcoin’s future ([20:10]).
    • “The single most important thing for what happens to bitcoin over the second half of the year is... will Jerome Powell be Fed Reserve chair, or will Kevin Warsh be confirmed?” — Dave ([20:10])

3. Regulatory News and Stablecoin Frameworks (11:25–16:22)

• White House Council on Economic Advisors Report:
  • Full-throated critique of bank lobby efforts to restrict stablecoin yield, which would “forego consumer benefits” ([12:52]).
    • “Why are lawmakers bending the knee to the banking lobby?” — Dave ([13:08])
  • Regulatory debates on the “Clarity Act,” aiming to formalize crypto oversight and end “regulation by enforcement.”
• Stablecoins as a Vehicle for Dollarization: ([28:04])
  • Panelists see the rise of stablecoins as a pragmatic response to shifting global monetary power.

4. Social & Political Fatigue; Media's Role ([16:28–19:57])

• Numbness to News:
  • Information overload, media saturation, and “deranged” presidential tweets have led to collective numbness.
    • “It is impossible... to view Trump’s tweet in any other way than outrageous... but people are numb. You have to follow policy actions.” — Dave ([17:46])
• Policy vs. Rhetoric:
  • Emphasis on the importance of real policy moves over political theatrics.

5. Crypto Market Structure, Narratives, and Adoption (28:09–50:30)

• Key Narratives:
  • Quantum Threats: Noted but considered manageable; biggest target is traditional finance ([31:19], [34:59]):
    • “Crypto is the easiest to pivot... we could make Bitcoin quantum-resistant very quickly… It’s the general financial system that’s at risk.” — Ryan ([33:34])
  • Stablecoin and Regulatory Clarity: Regulatory frameworks will foster innovation and bolster US dollar’s next phase ([28:19]).
  • Crypto’s Real-world Adoption: Notable developments around institutional entry (e.g., Morgan Stanley launching a low-fee Bitcoin ETF ([28:19])) and projects like Algorand’s move to onshore in the US ([30:39]).
• Market Behavior Amid Crisis:
  • Volatility and correlation across assets; Bitcoin and silver now move in lockstep ([44:48]).
  • Cautious optimism about Bitcoin’s price range ($60k–74k), with $80k possible if macro situation stabilizes ([46:15]).

6. Security in the Digital Era: Quantum and Traditional Finance ([31:19–39:53])

• Quantum Computing & Crypto:
  • Media overstates the quantum threat to crypto; true risk lies with legacy banking infrastructure ([34:59]).
    • “Why would you spend energy on a $1T market when you could attack multi-tens-of-trillions?” — Gary ([34:59])
  • Traditional finance is more vulnerable due to poor authentication systems and centralized risk ([36:09]).
    • “Two-factor authentication — your text to your phone is your bank’s security protocol. Crazy.” — Carlo ([36:09])
• Propaganda and FUD:
  • Perception that banks and institutions stoke fear about crypto to frame the narrative, especially around sensitive regulatory votes ([39:17]).

7. Guest Segment: Sheikh Saud Bin Faisal Kasimi

Timestamps: [50:30–54:29]

• Role: President of the Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network (CWU Blockchain)
• CWU Blockchain Overview:
  • Represents a coalition of 56 Commonwealth nations for trade, education, and economic development.
  • The blockchain vertical aims to drive digital innovation, financial inclusion, and cross-border payments within the union ([51:06], [52:03]).
• Product Launch and Platform:
  • Launching a new token on Solana for speed, low fees, and fair launch — no private/pre-sales ([52:51]).
  • Long-term plan: Develop blockchain infrastructure, explore stablecoin for cross-border payments, foster practical applications ([53:36]).
  • Token launches the same day as the podcast ([54:19]).
    • “This is our first token that we launch and we hope it goes for the best for everyone.” — Sheikh Saud ([54:07])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This is not a bitcoin rally... let’s see who is short what and afraid of getting run over.” — Dave ([00:20])
• “Crypto is the safe place when quantum rolls out, not the general financial system.” — Ryan ([33:34])
• “Stablecoins are probably going to be the new flywheel for treasury demand... It’s not a rapid destruction of the dollar petro system. It’s a slow grind to a new era.” — Carlo ([21:25])
• “If quantum is what causes the Bitcoin community to resolve that [old wallet] weakness once and for all, that’s an incredibly positive thing.” — Dave ([37:07])
• “Two-factor authentication — your text to your phone is your bank’s security protocol. Crazy.” — Carlo ([36:09])
• “Oil is doing what it's doing because of overall macro — Bitcoin and silver are almost doing exactly the same thing.” — Dave ([44:48])

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• War/Economic Analysis: 00:00–07:45
• Strait of Hormuz & Petrodollar Moves: 04:20–28:04
• Stablecoin Regulation & U.S. Policy: 11:25–16:22, 28:04–30:39
• Media, Rhetoric & Political Numbness: 16:28–19:57
• Crypto Narratives, Quantum Threat, Institutional Moves: 28:09–39:53
• Panel Banter & Market Structure: 44:48–50:30
• Sheikh Saud Bin Faisal Kasimi Interview: 50:30–54:29

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Episode Tone & Style

The discussion is candid, often irreverent, and deeply informed by both macroeconomic perspective and trading desk experience. Panelists grapple with uncertainty and information overload, often opting for honest “we don’t know” admissions over bravado. The camaraderie is evident; participants debate with respect, inject humor, and maintain a tone appropriate for both market professionals and engaged observers.

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Closing

The episode refocuses from war and systemic change to concrete innovation in the crypto space, particularly with the launch of the Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network token. Concluding with both realism about global risks and excitement about crypto’s unfulfilled promise, the show offers both caution and hope to those navigating these “interesting times.”

Next Crypto Town Hall: Friday, 10:15am ET.

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(Summary prepared for listeners and non-listeners alike — skip to provided timestamps for deeper dives into each subject.)

Transcript

[A]

Morning everybody. Welcome to Crypto Town hall every other weekday here on X at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time. Quite a, quite a couple days here Dave, hope you can hear me. I don't see my mic working, but

[B]

yeah, I hear you. Can you hear me?

[A]

Yeah, I can, yeah.

[B]

I mean look, you know, we'll see. I'm watching oil prices at 92. So I guess, I mean there was a thing on Zero Hedge saying that. Oh well, just kidding, the Straits are still closed. So you know, who the hell knows? I mean this is, I already posted a little while ago, people celebrating, you know, Bitcoin and Ethereum, whatever, rallying understand this was a war. Short being, you know, unwound very quickly. And so you know, when you see gold and silver, you know, I said a while ago that silver should be more correlated to bitcoin and, and that shouldn't surprise anybody but when you see a knee jerk. Silver up 4.6%, gold rallying strongly at the same time as oil is basically inverse to everything else and all the stock indices are up 3% ish, depending on which one. I guess the S&P is 2 and a half. I mean this is not a bitcoin rally, it's not a crypto rally. Let's see who is short what and afraid of getting run over rally. And so it doesn't necessarily mean more than that. Now that said, I still believe that bitcoin is in a bottoming process where 60 is the bottom of the range. The top of the recent range has been 74. So now we're higher. Okay, but it's not, it's not exciting. What is interesting and actually very interesting is the FT story on Iran wanting crypto payments. I don't, I didn't see it say Bitcoin. I. But that, that was assumed by a bunch of people. I don't know what the story is there and I'd be curious if people really know. But you know, from a crypto perspective it's just this is just risk on until we get risk off and who knows? Unless actually this does hold and something really good comes of it. I'm curious what people think, but to me it's interesting but not much more than that. What do you think?

[A]

I mean for me I've just given up on trying to figure it out and reacting to headlines because I don't think, I mean you've said this the entire time and I think on the larger headlines it's clear what's going on. But I think in a situation like this where you have so many conflicting headlines, nobody really understands what's happening. Probably better to just sit back and give it a week or two.

[B]

Yeah, I mean look, the best analysis that I've seen, the non hyperbolic ones, understand that there's a few things that are going on here. I mean there's, you know, arguably that the, arguably the justification for going into the war and starting it all was based on information that turned out to be false. That we know with absolute certainty that Iran had a pre war war gamed out strategy that if this happens we're not going to let us get decapitated like Hussein did. And so years ago they set up this structure of 31 independent military units that have the ability to fire and operate and making that work in a ceasefire is borderline impossible. I mean we know this is true, but what we don't know and nobody knows, no one on this panel anyway and people maybe in the CIA do or you know, in the Mossad or you know, at the highest levels of government know is how much, what is the likely civilian government is going to look like when the rubble clears, when the Internet gets turned back on in Iran. That's what we don't know. Expecting fighting to end in a situation where they've actually set themselves up so that the fighting can't end. Unless all of these military groups, I don't know the exact word for it but there are 31 of them get brought under control, it isn't going to happen. But what does matter is what happens in the straits, what does matter is what happens in economic activity. And reports of the UAE attacking and drone attacks on Kuwaiti infrastructure this morning. I mean, well, there's a new one

[A]

right now which is, it's Saudi Arabia's key east west oil pipeline which enables oil exports to bypass the Strait of Hormuz was hit by a drone just now. Right.

[B]

But it's exactly what we're saying. So look, this is unstable. The question is if you're in markets, and this is what people always miss. And, and it's funny in a way, if you're in March, people say well okay, great, why is oil at 92, 93 and didn't run right back up over 100? Well, the answer is because all the shorts just got themselves obliterated and they're not going to jump to pile back in and it's just the fire that's just not going to happen. Right. And so people, markets react. They know that people are starting to learn, know they get gun shy longs, get Gun shy. Shorts get gun shy. And so you don't expect that the next move to be as, as big. It doesn't mean that it won't happen, but it won't happen as quickly. Okay, great. We got hands. I didn't see whether it was Jamie or Kenneth first.

[A]

I think Jamie was first, then Ken.

[B]

Yeah, yeah.

[C]

Hey, guys, now just, I mean, a question. I mean, I, I saw a post by British Hodle, like pretty close after the ceasefire was announced that, that Iran had shot off some missiles. I also saw a post from, with Thomas Young, who showed the, the transponder tracking map where all the ships were. You know, that maybe they didn't get the, the memo that the Strait of Hormuz is open. They're, they're, they're on the outsides of it. So, I mean, is it, do we even know if this is a real thing or is this just more of marketing?

[A]

That's what I'm saying. I, I just don't think we could possibly have the information yet. And like, I think they, they take this. I think Trump probably made this decision 15 minutes before. So it's not like 15 minutes later the entire world got the exact memo on what they were supposed to do, I would imagine. That's why I say like, give it a week or two weeks. Right. Because these things got to take a lot. I can't imagine just like you don't just open it, right. I mean, I can't even imagine how many, what did they say, 800 ships are floating around in there? Just have been waiting for weeks. So it's going to take time.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

Kev.

[D]

Hey, guys. Nice to meet you. I mean, the Chinese have a phrase called may you live in interesting times. It's not actually good news. It's seen as bad news rather than good news. And I haven't seen more interesting times in that definition in a long, long time. What's illuminating to me is not what's happening in the military war stuff, but the relevance of crypto and the fact now that we've yet another decoupling of the petrodollar and that the Straits of Hormuz will be paid for using. I think it's stablecoin, I think it's usdt. And the size and the emergence of the ARR. Ukrainian economy for crypto and crypto assets to remove itself off the regulation. Swift control there. That, that's interesting to me,

[A]

Ryan.

[E]

Yeah, interesting times for sure. I, I really like that comment. You know, everything from, you know, the straight with oil. They also have been highlighting the shortage of helium and they've been also highlighting the shortage of nitrogen based fertilizers which is greatly, are going to greatly affect our food supply. I don't know what the timeline on something like that is, but there's a lot of bleak indicators for our economy moving into the future based on this one supply route, which seems very kind of crazy to me. And, and I don't know much about this part of the world and I don't know much about oil or these type of economics. I'm a software nerd. So when people say like they shut down the Strait of Hormoz, I don't, I don't necessarily know what that means. Is that just means they have a blockade where they blow up a ship if it tries to go through or they just physically can stop a ship. I just don't even understand the physics of how do they shut down a massive shipping lane like that. I don't know if anyone has just specifics for someone that doesn't even know that.

[A]

I'm not going to pretend I know the answer to that one personally.

[B]

Yeah, it's more or less that what's actually happened is the threat of hitting a mine, not knowing where they're, where they are, or a fast attack ship or a missile being able to do it has caused the insurance companies to make it cost prohibitive to go through. So the insurance companies are going to say if you want to go through and you want to be insured, which every single company does, they can't afford it because it's some huge percentage of the economic value of what's on board. And so that's the effective manner. So the insurance companies won't allow it to go through unless the Iranians say, yeah, okay, fine, this is going to be safe. And so that's really the issue. It's kind of a strange scenario, but it amounts to the same thing, Carlos.

[E]

You could have like 100 ships all just rush the straight all at the same time. And it's more of a psychological barrier than a physical.

[B]

Well, first of all, that doesn't happen because I mean just the maritime situation, I mean, but the fact is, is ships going through the strait, the company that owns the ship is not going to let the ship go through the strait if it can't be insured.

[E]

Gotcha. Okay.

[B]

That's just the mechanics of what's happening. But whatever, I mean it amounts to the same thing. And so if they pay a toll to Iran and Iran was smart or whoever designed it in Iran was smart and said they're sharing it with Oman because quite literally there'd be no way under international law for international waters in between two countries to be considered a single country. So I mean, that'll probably help. But whatever. It's like if the answer is a dollar a barrel of oil is, you know, it becomes very interesting. It's basically a tariff. And you've. And you heard. We were on the spaces last night. Jamie, I forgot who was. Was it Jeff Ward? Jamie? I think that was Jeff.

[C]

Yeah. He's great.

[B]

Talking about. Yeah, he had a lot of really good analysis about this but basically what he said is it'll be. It's basically like a tariff. And the insurance companies, if you're paying the tariff are probably like, okay, fine. And so that's, that's what's going on anyway, I hope that answers the question. Now I see four hands up. I don't know if they're legacy or new or what we. Or what we have. Scott,

[A]

I think, yeah, I don't know if. I can't tell if

[C]

minor legacy. Go to Carlo, go to Carlo.

[D]

I have my hand up, but some people haven't yet.

[F]

Good morning, Scott.

[A]

Morning, Carlo.

[F]

So I'm relieved that we have a pause in this thing. I think Trump did what frankly he had to do because he is mostly concerned with the markets and he understood that a prolonged protracted war would destroy the global markets and our domestic markets. So I'm glad there's a pause here. Again, we're all speculating as to how this is going to play out, but can we pivot to the White House Council on Economic Advisors calling out the banks on their stablecoin yield? Bullshit.

[B]

Yeah, I was trying to post. I still don't know how to post stuff in the nest. If you look, I actually wrote a post this morning with the actual link in it. I don't know if we want to pivot just yet, but the truth is that it was a. This is about as blinding a thing as you see. I mean basically the White House Council, the economic advisors did a full economic write up and concluded that. Let's get the. Hold on, let's get these very, very, very specific.

[F]

I just put an article up in the nest that I just put out that has a link as well.

[B]

Here's the money line, Carlo. In short, a yield prohibition would do very little to protect bank lending while foregoing consumer benefits of competitive returns on stablecoin holdings. So I basically posted. So riddle me this. Why are lawmakers bending the knee to the banking lobby.

[F]

Exactly. Exactly. Why is this even. Why is this even a debate anymore? I mean.

[B]

Well, the answer is, is because they're being paid to do so. We know that it's pure unadulterated corruption and it's impossible to hide. I mean, the White House putting this out is, if it were propaganda be one thing, but it's a fully research economic paper. So I mean, I don't know. I mean, it's pretty close to impossible to me to believe that you could be a lawmaker and actually have a straight with your straight face saying, yeah, you want to protect the bank lending, you're protecting George Bailey. Meanwhile, when the reality is the economic analysis says it's the opposite.

[F]

Meanwhile, I'll remind everyone that we're still dealing with backdoor back channel conversations and the consumer is yet to see what the hell is in this revised draft. But yeah, I agree with you, Dave. It pretty much destroys their case. And if they let this go through, then they are basically ignoring the consumer and bending the knee to the banks for an unjustified, grossly exaggerated fear mongering reason.

[A]

I don't see any hand savior.

[B]

Well, Kenneth had his hand up before Omar in the macro, but that's okay.

[D]

Yeah, I was going to continue talking about the economics and impact of what's happened in the Middle East. The Clarity act stuff is, is obviously moving everything on. That is an abomination, of course. And I think it's only a matter of time until that rolls out fully and we see, you know, logic return to capital markets.

[B]

Yeah, I mean, it's not about logic, Kenneth. I think it's more that I've described this before. I mean, having sat on trading desks for both at Two Sigma, which is a hedge fund, and at Citigroup and Morgan Stanley, et cetera. I mean, what happens in these situations when geopolitical risks get like this and it is obvious that there is news that could screw up your positions, is you have much less liquidity in terms of where market makers are likely to put positions out. And so you're keeping a very relatively light profile. That means that any move that happens from people who are caught off sides is sharper and you're getting less and less liquidity the longer this goes on. And that's why you're seeing moves large in things like silver. You know, silver's always been volatile, but obviously its volatility over the last six months is just, it's historic. Right. So you're seeing that, you know, crypto has had that volatility forever for a lot of reasons. And it's gone down because of institutions, because the institutions that are in crypto are like, long term, and they're just kind of shrugging their shoulders at all of this. And when I say in crypto, I mean most of it is bitcoin. There's some ethereum, there's some other bets, a few other coins, and this being crypto Town hall. I do actually want to talk about crypto at some point, but we'll get there. But I think that, that that's what we're seeing, right? I mean, Carlo, I, I assume, you know, I, I don't know if it was your hand or Ryan's hand or Jamie's hand first. It's so hard to tell.

[F]

No, I think maybe legacy hand for me. Happy to jump in if, if we evolve the conversation.

[E]

Yeah, Legacy hand for me as well.

[C]

Okay, Jamie, just, just, Just a quick comment.

[B]

Yeah.

[C]

To the point of, like, with Carlo and, and also, like, kind of coupled with the, The. The Trump tweets. We had a lot of talk about that, obviously, yesterday as it related to the potential deadline and whatnot. And, you know, it just seems like, and this is just observational, but it just seems like there's been a purposeful choice to give out more information, either media, tweets, posts, or whatnot, to release information regardless if it turns out to be correct or not. It seems like pe people are, are okay with knowing what's going on, that it may change. Where before I think there was a lot of. We didn't know people would kind of get agitated, like they weren't in the loop. It's almost kind of like in conjunction with the, you know, attention span of social media these days. And I just think that, that it seems like, and again, this is just observational, that it's been a purposeful choice to transition to that. You know, with all of these events and all these ongoing bills that aren't getting passed and what.

[D]

What could happen.

[C]

The accuracy of it is less important than just getting it out so people can it, and it just becomes part of the everyday story.

[B]

I mean, I used the word last night on bitcoin tonight that people are numb. That to me, it is impossible, literally impossible to view Trump's tweet in any other way other than outrageous, almost deranged. I mean, it really is. I mean, I don't care if you and I support the administration for the, the most part. I just, I. You just. How do you use words like that? But, you know, it's it's just, it's.

[E]

It.

[B]

There's just no way around it. And so, you know, we. We had. We've been given a choice. We had, you know, four years of no president with, you know, people running the country that, you know, we have no idea we didn't elect. And now we have a president whose negotiating style and filter is zero. I mean, I've had conversations with individuals that are sane people, like normal sane people who aren't evil, who aren't bad, who will make comments when they get angry geopolitically saying, well, we should bomb those people back to the Stone Age. Right? That's what happens. Having a president that acts the same way or says the same way is disconcerting. I mean, there's no way around it. I mean, you have to look at it that way. But I think people are numb to it. Right? I mean, I really do. I mean, it's like at a certain point, you know, what do you listen to? You have to follow policy actions and look to see what's actually happening, because we have no fricking clue. Does that mean you like it? Of course not. Right. I mean, I don't know. I mean, you know, Scott, I know you don't want to comment on this because people, no one will tell me, no one will accuse me of TDS because I generally am supportive of the administration. But I think it's impossible not to shake your head at some of the shit that comes out. That's get said. But what gets done is a different story. Right? And that's what matters. And we'll see. I mean, I just think that, Jamie, I think the world is numb to these various things and people are trying to figure out what's actually happening. And I will point out that since Zero Hedge came out and said that the ceasefire has already been broken, oil is already up to 94 and it's still kind of grinding. So we'll see what happens. Okay, Anybody else want to talk about the Middle East?

[G]

Yeah.

[A]

I mean, I, like, I don't care that people yell at me about it. I have my opinions and they are what they are. But I also know when my opinions are relatively informed and when I have no idea what the fuck I'm talking about. I don't think right now anybody has any idea what they're talking about.

[B]

Right. Well, I've been saying that for weeks. I mean, you know, it's the only thing that I'm certain of, and I am absolutely certain of a couple of things. I am absolutely certain that the Printing presses are revving up. And the real question as to timing of it will be how long can the RINOs and Democrats block Kevin Warsh from getting a hearing? Right. And it's really Thom Tillis who's doing that. And I know that that sounds awfully obscure and not nearly as interesting as drones hitting pipelines and war, and people get very hyperbolic about. But honestly, that's the single most important thing for what happens to bitcoin over the second half of the year is will Jerome Powell be the Federal Reserve president, you know, Federal Reserve chair as we move into the midterms, or will Kevin Warsh actually be allowed to be confirmed? That's the most important story. I know that that's a hot take. No one will agree with me on that. But frankly, I think that's what matters, because once you have the administration in play, then monetary policy can actually be coherent with our treasury policy. Carlo, is that a new hand or is that a legacy hand?

[F]

No, it's a new hand.

[B]

Good.

[F]

You and I briefly debated this yesterday on the Bitcoin afternoon show that I think what we're seeing here is the gradual extraction of the petrodollar system as we know it. And I put out a pretty lengthy piece about this, which I think I'm. I'm, to a degree, proven right on. Because I think we're looking at the dollar's third act here. There is no doubt that whatever comes out on the other side of this cease fire, the Trump administration has expressed a desire to get out of the. To get out of the region in the way that they've been present. I don't think that the Gulf countries necessarily feel secure anymore under the prior petrodollar system. And I think. And the thesis that I wrote about is that we started with Bretton woods, where the dollar was collateralized by gold, and it got us out of The World War II era, brought in tremendous economic prosperity for the United States. But then that started to crumble, and Nixon pivoted in 1971 to getting off the gold standard and negotiated with Saudi Arabia the petrodollar standard, which has been a massive engine for treasury demand and had bought the dollar. 50 years of dominance based on it being the dominant currency for oil transactions. We're seeing the dollar becoming more and more marginalized, and this war just basically accelerated the marginalization of the dollar as being the predominant oil instrument. And I think stablecoins. Going back to the stablecoin conversation, I think this opens the door for the dollar to have another act so act one was Bretton Woods. Act two was the Nixon era. Act three is get away from the petrodollar system. If China wants to be the global reserve currency for settling oil, great. And stablecoins are probably going to be the new flywheel for treasury demand. And the fact that the United States seems to be more interested in being a regional power at this point, South America being mostly dollarized already seems to be a very prudent move. It's not a rapid destruction of the dollar petro system. I think it's just a slow grind to a new era. And I think there's merit in that thesis because I don't think it's sustainable that we can continue to protect that region and be the global reserve settlement currency for oil any longer because we're seeing more and more countries distance themselves from Treasuries.

[B]

Yeah, I have comments on that, but I saw Kenneth's hand go up and Jamie, you were. Well, let's go, Kenneth, because it's on the macro topic. Let's go there.

[D]

Thanks, guys. I mean, this is passionate to me, the decoupling of the petrodollar I spoke about earlier on this. But you know, when you see Russia and China from 2022 conducting over 90% of its oil and resource transactions outside of the US dollar, namely in RMB

[A]

or

[D]

rupees, you know you're in trouble because you've got the biggest. Are one of the biggest oil stations in the world in Russia, selling to the most populous place in the world outside of the petrodollar. I think your days are limited. And then on top of that, in June 2024, Saudi started not renewing its petrodollar agreement that it had called the unbreakable agreement 50 years ago with the US and now to come back to stablecoin, you've got for the first time a sovereign country transacting for oil and gas transportation, at least outside of US dollars in this toll we're talking about. That's way interesting. That's a new paradigm for currency. That's a new. Okay. You know, Bretton woods, no longer Nixon. No longer. In fact, France went looking for their gold from Nixon and that's when that all started. And now I think we see yet a further emergence of challenges to where the US dollar is going to go.

[F]

Yeah, that was 100% agree.

[A]

Just say, Carlo, I'm sure you had a follow up on that.

[F]

Yeah, I 100% agree. I put up the successor piece in the Nest, but the original thesis I put out a couple of days ago, before when we had this escalation and Trump was going to wipe Iran off the face of the earth was exactly that thesis. We've been seeing the gradual retreat from the petrodollar system, Saudi Arabia distancing themselves, this war just basically poured kerosene over that and accelerated that. And again, I think Besant may have strategically positioned the genius act, the stablecoin infrastructure, as a hedge against this ultimate pivot. Because we had the same overnight sort of pivot happen over when Nixon sent Kissinger to negotiate this deal with Saudi Arabia to get us into the petrodollar system. And I think before any treasury secretary and Dave, you've talked about this. His job is to promote the stability of the dollar, the dominance of the dollar. And that's what he does all day long. He talks about the dollar as the reserve currency. The dollar's never going to default, the dollar is king. And I think in the back room he's putting together that third act of the dollar where it does have an opportunity to maintain that. Because I, I have to agree. I don't think the dollar is in a position to maintain that position anymore and needs another vehicle for treasury demand. Stablecoins make all sense in the world to me because if South America is dollarized and it gives South America quicker, easier access to digital dollars and every digital dollar minted creates a treasury, well, then that alleviates the stress of having to rely on other nation states to accumulate treasuries, especially over oil. Just has been articulated. They're getting away from that. We're kind of out of the process already.

[G]

Yeah.

[A]

Dave, can we move on from oil in the Middle East?

[B]

And I mean, well, I mean, come on, we went from smelting town hall to Middle Eastern town hall. Now I would actually like to talk about crypto. I think there's two things that are interesting.

[A]

I mean Morgan Stanley is literally launching a bitcoin ETF today that's markedly cheaper than any of the other offerings, which is not something Morgan Stanley does. And we're talking about geopolitics that shows

[E]

the world we're in.

[B]

Look, the narratives. There are three narratives in the world of crypto that matter. Right. And in no particular order, there's quantum, there's, you know, which is not understood by most investors. And the ones who have the biggest amount of money are, you know, their basic opinion is pretty clear that it's solvable. And we're going to make sure that it, that it's solvable and it's non trivial. You Know, not being ignored, et cetera. And I think that your guest this morning, when talking about what Nick Carter saying is, is, look, it's a narrative. There is a risk. The risk gets cut in two. I did an interview last night, which I guess will come out on, you know, with Cointelegraph on this topic. It's not existential, is the short answer. Unless people are. Unless the Bitcoin community acts completely irrationally. And so Morgan Stanley is going ahead with doing what they're doing. All the other institutions, all of which have the economic ability to fix it if it has to get fixed with regard to it. It wouldn't be what people want to see, but it could happen. The second major narrative is the whole stablecoin thing and getting a Clarity act done. And there's a lot of misunderstandings out there about what Clarity does and doesn't do. What Clarity does specifically is formalize who has jurisdiction over what and the path to regulation by enforcement. Right. Meaning that regulation by enforcement dies. It becomes regulation by regulation. Right. And then the third topic is what's actually happening inside of crypto to understand value. And so, you know, things like the announcement that you heard this morning was that Algorand is changing from a foundation to a for profit company. Moving back to the US Is extremely important because they've come to the conclusion that clarity or not, what the CFTC and SEC are doing makes it possible for entrepreneurs. And that's actually a very big piece of news. I mean, I didn't know it until I listened to you.

[A]

Yeah, I wasn't aware of it until she told me.

[E]

Yep.

[B]

Right. Well, isn't that a big deal?

[A]

I think so.

[G]

Yeah.

[A]

I think it's a huge deal because they don't have to do that and they don't want to reverse that in a year. Right. So it's a huge signal in my mind.

[B]

And. Yeah. Yet all we're talking about and the correlation among assets is such that, you know, as markets are slightly retracing now on more war news, I mean, Bitcoin is going down and whatever. I mean, it is. It is what it is. I mean, when you get into these, into these sorts of days, you get higher correlations and so that's all anyone wants to do. But I mean, there's a lot of topics that could be talked about here. I mean, Kenneth, is that a legacy hand or is that a new hand? We can't.

[D]

No, that's. That's a new hand. For two things that you just said there, Dave, which are incredibly interesting. To me. And that is, you know, the ultimate value of crypto and where it's going. You know, Buterin said in January that during his office hours that, you know, crypto is at an inflection point. That inflection point is, you know, do we have real world adoption sufficient enough to take us out of this sort of gambling, crypto and the gaming world? Right. That's well documented. And I would bring that in a curious way back to your first point on quantum. 0.4% of world finance is currently on crypto stablecoin on chain, whatever way you want to call it. So that means 99.6% is in TradFi. Quantum is absolutely going to wreck that world. I mean, you know, if you think our, our crypto wallets are a threat, when you see what's going to happen banking with Quantum, is it not curious that nobody speaks about that? Is it not curious that everyone is looking just at crypto and saying, wow, what a big, big, big threat Quantum is. You know, Qubit technology, you know, Google's Willow is a much bigger threat, a huge, huge, huge concern to finance generally. So I think it's, to me, it's about adoption and it's about focus. You know, my point is I find it incredibly curious that the world's press commentary speaks about the threat that Quantum is to crypto when it's not looking at the huge, big elephant in the room that I think is relevant.

[A]

Ryan.

[E]

Yeah, so funny enough, I think everyone's got it completely backwards just to the, to the point of, I apologize, I didn't see the name of the last speaker, but crypto is a very small percentage of the financial world market here. But you have to remember, crypto is the easiest to pivot. We could make Bitcoin and these different chains quantum resistant very, very quickly compared to the greater financial system. So the reality is crypto is the safe place when Quantum rolls out, not the general financial system. The general financial system, you're going to have encryption hacks, you're going to have people getting into these banking systems, governmental systems, classified systems like all of the general encryption that can't be easily forked and rolled by open source community. Those are the real attack vectors. Crypto is actually the easiest one to fork and to roll into a news consensus algorithm. So the reality is I would much rather have all of my assets sitting on a crypto chain that can easily be fixed rather than in a financial system that's just a sitting duck.

[G]

Can I just add in here, this is something I have never been concerned about. And the reason is, look, it's Sutton's Law, right? There was a guy named Willie Sutton who used to rob banks. And they said, hey, why do you rob banks? And he said, that's where the money is. Why would you spend any energy on a one trillion dollar market when you could attack six multi tens of trillions of dollars? It's such an illogical thing. Here we have really great security. Let me go hack the most secure machinery on planet earth for

[A]

I lost. Gary.

[B]

Gary, you cut out.

[A]

He's back.

[B]

You there?

[G]

Yeah, yeah. I don't know what happened there, but I just don't know why anybody would attack Bitcoin with its security knowing they could attack wealth. Wells Fargo, bank of America. I mean the sieves of these banks, their security systems are, should be very, very easy to hack. So I just. And the money's there. I don't know why people get all stuck on this.

[F]

Crying out loud. Two factor authentication. Two factor authentication. Your text to your phone is your bank's security protocol.

[B]

Crazy. It's crazy.

[E]

Oh my goodness. Don't even get me started on the SMS 2 factor. It's, it's absolutely insane that we've tied the majority of our security systems to a phone number from a centralized issuer. But, but to Gary's point, it's propaganda. You know what's better for a, for an ETF that needs to acquire a huge amount of crypto when the, the market is running really high. Well, let's create some fud. Let's create some propaganda, let's push the market down and then let's start our etf.

[B]

I mean I, I, I, you had me at everything until that. Let's just.

[E]

Well, I'm, I'm not a, I'm not a market guy, Dave. I'm a software guy. So I'll sit here and have my conspiracy theories without any evidence.

[B]

ETF issuers make more money. They make their money on net asset value. Bitcoin doubles their revenue. Doubles. Let's just call it what it is. I mean it's just you got the incentives wrong there. But the acquirers, the funds. Yeah, sure. I mean one could, you know, there's all sorts of things right in this. I mean Bitcoin has a unique weakness in the sense of whether. And you pick your number, you know, and we know of Satoshi's coins, that's 5% of supply. There's as much as 30% of the supply that hasn't moved or isn't lost or blah, blah, Whatever the number is, that is a unique weakness. If quantum is what causes Bitcoin to the bitcoin community to resolve that weakness once and for all, to actually understand what the story is with that, that's a incredibly positive thing. If in the interim it will cause panic. Because anytime there's a tweet and people have muscle memory, right? Anytime old people, old wallets move, markets dump because people try to front run the selling. Now the question is, at a certain point, the selling's already happened, and so that's what goes on with markets. But the whole quantum situation is really interesting because the actual cost to build it, this is not something that just your garden variety hackers can do. I mean, this is a really expensive, difficult thing to build. It's going to be, you know, has to be near absolute zero. It's not easy. Not saying it won't happen, but it's not easy. And then you have to ask yourself, who are they going to be capable of doing it? Well, the risk is not that Google builds quantum computers that can hack Bitcoin, because if so, that's actually incredibly positive, in my opinion. The risk is the CCP does, right? You know, that's, that's the risk. And what's their incentive? Well, you know, those are the questions that people have and people worry about it. I think the worries are massively overblown for a variety of reasons. But you kind of understand because people tend to fight the last war, and the last war is, you know, while the old coins moving is going to cause the price to crash. Right? Does that make sense?

[G]

Right, Dave? I, I agree with this last gentleman, though. I think if once this bill gets passed or not passed, well, passed, I think you'll see this propaganda, this propaganda is coming from the banks, man. They're trying to divert the. Throw any amount of risk you can. On crypto, people don't understand it. And it would make so much sense that they would try to, you know, shift the eyeballs because they have huge security risk. Oh yeah, like the banks have to know. It's just a matter. They wake up every morning going, oh shit, what happened last night? I guarantee you every CEO is like, okay, when's the hack going to happen?

[B]

I know this for a fact. I don't have to guess about it because I've been in those meetings. So not necessarily the CEO level. Although at Two Sigma I was, but not at, not at Citi. I don't know what the current CEO's feeling is, but I can tell you that they know how exposed they are. And there's a reason every, people always wonder. Everyone, probably everyone in this panel has had experience with wire transfers that drive you crazy because of how long sometimes it takes. Well, the reason that, that, that slowness is for a reason. It's so that they can make sure is to. They don't want things to happen where they feel they're economically exposed. This two factor authentication stuff. Mike Alfred, last night on Bitcoin tonight with Jamie and I went through a very specific, you know, in terms of fact pattern. What he talked about and he's right, is that large accounts that people often go and bribe, you know, a few for thousands of dollars, you can get access to someone's cell phone and then use it to steal potentially millions of dollars. And so people like to do that. And that is a very serious thing. Scott, you've talked about this before. You use a particular service to stop SIM swapping for exactly that reason, right?

[A]

Yeah, funny. Yeah, I do and I would love to get deeper into that. But we have a special guest today that planning to have a chat with for 11 o'.

[B]

Clock.

[A]

So we have actually perfect timing.

[B]

Cool. Sorry, I didn't see the thing open.

[A]

No, no, perfect. Going to, going to pivot right now. So today we have his Highness Sheikh Saud Bin Faisal Kasimi, who's a member of the distinguished Al Qasmi royal family and Sharjah and Ras Al Khamai. I'm sorry for butchering these United Arab Emirates. He has a strong background in banking and financial technology, is recognized as an experienced entrepreneur and business leader, served as chairman of several multinational companies and sits on the boards of multiple holding groups. Some of his roles include president of the Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network and leadership positions in companies such as Riser Capital, CashPay, Sharers Care, Apple and Best Homes Real Estate. Sheikh Saud was among the earliest adopters of bitcoin and blockchain technology. He strongly believes in the digital transformation of the global economy and is committed to building platforms that create value and opportunity worldwide through the Commonwealth Union platform and established network. Representing 56 countries and connecting more than 2.6 billion people, he aims to foster global collaboration, innovation and economic growth. So welcome. Thank you for joining us. I think hopefully still on stage. I think we literally just lost him. Let me invite again.

[B]

I. I see him.

[A]

Okay. I see listener, but he was there for a moment.

[B]

Are you able to speak?

[G]

Oops.

[A]

It's a wonderful platform, isn't it?

[B]

I saw this mute go on and off. Can you hear Us.

[A]

Seems we're having some classic technical difficulties. Perhaps I see him as a listener, so perhaps we can invite him back up.

[B]

Okay, now I see him as a listener. And, yeah, this platform sometimes is crazy. Nope, still listener.

[F]

Maybe advise him to step off the app and come back in. Sometimes

[A]

try to do that. Which I hope is that. And all that introducing, you know. Yeah, it's a lot of introducing. Don't. Not often that I get to introduce his Highness, you know, so I would love to get him. Yeah, you can. You can.

[G]

You can introduce me as your highness anytime.

[A]

I don't. You know what, Gary? Now that you said it every time.

[G]

I mean, come on, it's gonna be. It's gonna be a clap. But do not call me Lord Gary. I was. While we're waiting for our gentleman, I'll tell a funny story. I was looking at buying a house in England, and the only thing, like, the house came with a large title. And I walked away from the deal because I'm like, I cannot possibly ever have the name Lord Gary.

[E]

So you can buy a square foot plot of land in Scotland and issue those titles to people. Now,

[A]

I guess we can keep chatting

[E]

about maybe the X engineers should use Anthropic to try to fix their spaces.

[B]

Well, they could use Grok.

[E]

Doesn't seem Grok is doing it.

[B]

They don't even use that. I mean, it's. Yeah, it's. It's definitely something going on here.

[A]

But I mean, this. We have like a 25% hit rate at full technological success at any given moment.

[B]

Yeah, well, you know, and yet their

[E]

sister companies launching rockets in the space.

[G]

We want to address what. Why Bitcoin is doing what it's doing right now.

[B]

Well, it's doing what it's following everything else. It's just correlated. Right. Bitcoin and silver are almost doing exactly the same things, isn't it? Yeah, exactly. Silver was up almost 5%. Now it's up 3. It's almost identical. Gary, it's kind of crazy, but I'm telling you, it's just because the macro is where all the trading is and the liquidity is just not there because people don't want to put out big bets when the next tweet, the next Trump, the next news story is going to screw them. I mean, do you think it's anything different? I mean, you've traded for a long time. I mean, you know,

[A]

I've sat on

[B]

more trading desks to know that. That's.

[G]

I was just. I was a little surprised that. Look, it Held really pretty firmly during the 20 days of insanity. Then it responded positively yesterday. I don't know, I'm just a little confused as to. And it just may be liquidity flows. But I'm, I'm pleased with the way it's responded. I was hoping it would flush out. I don't know if it's going to do that. I don't think this event is over. So I suspect there's going to be more volatility.

[B]

Oh yeah, right.

[G]

So I'm going to keep my bids low. Hopefully I don't miss a move. I just don't see how bitcoin goes gets to $80,000 right now in this environment it's.

[B]

I could tell I'll be slightly contrary. Look, I think we're still in a range. I won't convinced of any difference until it materially starts grinding higher. And I don't think that happens until there's some resolution here. Right. If it works out that this continues on for the next two, three, four, five weeks, you know, where there's continued uncertainty and there's a resolution, then the path to 80 and way beyond is very, very clear. Because what you need to get through is the period May is generally when. Because remember that last year was not an up year. There's. There was not going to be a lot of tax selling to pay taxes from capital gains. But there is a lot of. There's. This is going to be a very large tax refund year. But people are going to be spending that on gasoline if this continues to happen as opposed to spending it on investing. Right. So you know, a lot of.

[G]

Well, this is. This. They're going to pay more for gasoline no matter what happens here. Well, sure, for the next four or five months.

[B]

Right. But as we go into the summer driving season that becomes very.

[G]

The 50% like. Like they're not going to get away from this $50 that we got hit with in Florida. I was paying $3 and now I'm paying 450. That's a big delta, man.

[B]

Yep.

[A]

I paid 5 the other day for 93.

[E]

Yeah, well, I just paid $8 a gallon yesterday.

[G]

Where do you live, man?

[E]

California.

[G]

Yeah, you're going to be at 10 bucks, dude.

[B]

I paid $7 to get a third of a charge on my Tesla. So I'll tell you, all kidding aside, I mean the cost difference has just skyrocketed in favor of EVs for now until electricity costs which inevitably will go much higher from this catch up. They haven't yet, but it is Interesting.

[E]

Everyone said buy a diesel.

[C]

We did the same thing here up in New England. It went from about $3 like you, Gary, but we got to about $4. You know, in the course of like three or three weeks, you know, it's been noticeable. I, I did notice also on the bitcoin chart, it looks like it's moved out of the, the, it's sideways range up until like at least the next, you know, 74. 5. Dave, like you mentioned, I think that's in Target. And then if it continues 80s in in play, it's in, in. If it certainly continues along this direction. It's certainly been not shy with, with the war and, or the conflict. It has not reacted poorly. I think it's been very strong. I agree with Gary on that as well. Hey, by the way, you haven't mentioned the factory.

[A]

Get the, get this back up. So I apologize for not being on top of this. We're struggling here.

[B]

Yeah, no, I know. It's understanding. I don't want to go down a whole alley anyway. Kenneth, I think I saw your hand up.

[D]

Yeah, no, just very quickly, guys, I really like what we're talking about here. Insofar as when gas goes up a buck, a buck 50 from where it was, let's say, at the beginning of March in the US that further breaks things because we're talking about a country that's a net exporter. The United States get all the gas it needs and beyond from its fracking technology, et cetera. But where incremental income from tax receipts or whatever goes to spending on a commodity that the United States has a glut of because of the petrodollar price of that commodity that brings not just uncertainty in what's happening next, but fundamental fissures within how the economics works and the questioning of people. Why am I paying this. Why am I paying all this extra money for something that we have lots of.

[A]

Yeah, we actually, we managed to get back on stage with the CWU blockchain account. So welcome. Sorry we had those technical difficulties. Can you give us a mic check? Is it working there?

[H]

Yes. Do you hear me now?

[A]

Wonderful. And this, this platform is always such a challenge, but thank you for joining us.

[H]

How are you doing?

[A]

I'm doing wonderful. So now we can dive back in where we tried to start about 10 minutes ago. So maybe we can start with this. What is Commonwealth Union and Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network. And who does it represent?

[H]

Okay. The Commonwealth Union is a group of 56 countries. Okay. It's a union of the group of 56 countries. It is more like a trade and economic development, education, cultural exchange, democracy and governance. We have, it's, it's a Union of these 56 Commonwealth countries. So that's, that's one part. The blockchain is, is a vertical of one of the 500 verticals which is under the Commonwealth Union. So I, I'm, I'm the president of the Commonwealth blockchain vertical which is, which is the one which is go making this token under the blockchain vertical.

[A]

Understood. So can you provide us some context as how this serves that Commonwealth and how that came together? I mean 56 nations, a very impressive number and obviously you said there in the intro.

[H]

Yeah, so it's Commonwealth Uni Blockchain is the official vertical of Commonwealth Union. Okay. Was created to strengthen, strengthen the digital innovation and financial inclusion across the Commonwealth 56 countries. That's a small explanation what I can tell you.

[A]

Perfect. So how did this come together? Who's backing it?

[H]

Okay, we have of course we have the backing of the Commonwealth Union as the official vertical of the organization operating under the name of the Commonwealth Union Blockchain Network.

[A]

Understood. So maybe we could talk about what the benefits of what benefit the Commonwealth Blockchain offers users and obviously I guess the next question is why you chose to build it on Solana.

[H]

Well see we're launching on Solana because it offers a fast execution and low fees and easy access for a wider range of users. And it's a fair launch because there was no private sale and no presale and no special insider allocation. So everyone enters under the same public condition. And you know, I think it will be a fairly a fair launch from the beginning. This is what I'm focusing on.

[A]

Perfect. And so I know we've kind of gone through it very quickly. I mean what exactly are the products that are being built? You know, what, what is going to be the specific offering here before we get to the kind of conclusion?

[H]

So just, just for the audience, the next step is for us to, to build a real utility through the Commonwealth E blockchain network including of course the blockchain infrastructure and the exploration of stablecoin to support the cross border payments and the trade across the 56 countries. So the focus is on practical application and long term implementation. That's the thing.

[A]

Is there anything else that you specifically want to add that you want us to know?

[H]

Well, this is our first token that we launch and we hope it goes for the best for everyone.

[A]

Is that being launched literally today, this week? What are the specifics.

[H]

It will be launched today.

[A]

Very, very exciting. Well, thank you so much for taking the time to speak with us. Is there anything else you to want. Want to add before I let you go?

[H]

Nice talking to you guys.

[A]

Thank you. Okay. Wonderful. See? Easy, easy. Very, very, very good. And an honor to have you here. So, everybody else, I think we. We wrapped it up. We'll be back, obviously, on Friday at 10:15am Eastern Standard Time for the next installment of Crypto Town Hall. Thank you, everybody. We will see you then. Bye.