Loading summary
A
Bitcoin is showing some weakness, trading at $110,000 after going down into the 108. Of course that means that the top is likely in and it's probably over because people can't take when it's not up only. But we are going to discuss whether it's possible that 124k was the top or whether bitcoin is currently refueling for another rally. Of course we're also going to talk arch public and everything else happening in the news. Got myself, Andrew and Tillman. Let's go.
B
Let's do, let's do.
A
What is up Fine people of the Internet Verse, how are you doing on this lovely Tuesday morning at the end of August when bitcoin is somewhat predictably retracing a bit and causing mass hysteria amongst the community. Before we get started, subscribe and like that's my one time a week I said it. We're done. Now I'm going to bring on Andrew and Tillman who are trying to get me to buy a Porsche.
B
No, we're trying to keep you from buying an Aston Martin or Lambo or some other car that's going to end up on the side of the road on a tow truck.
A
Yeah, I actually heard an incredible story about Vlad Tenev, the CEO of Robinhood, that he had a white countach, like the white countach, like a 1 of 100 or something and that it, as you would expect, broke down literally on the side of the road like the third time he ever drove it. And then the guy who came to tow it, he was like, are you sure you know how to tow one of these things? It's like pretty complicated. Yeah, I do this all the time and, and literally totaled it, towing it. And it's been in the shop for two and a half years. Two and a half years. Because those you can't get parts for. You know, that's not a huracan or something. But still. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not going that, that, that route anyways. Nobody wants to talk about that except for the three of us and probably everyone in the comments. But either way we're going to go ahead and get to the topic at hand. Was 124k the top? Bitcoin's price peak signals tell a different story. If you're waiting in suspense for an answer on the title here, 24k the top or is a rally just beginning? Every single indicator that they could find for this article says just the beginning. 30 of 30 indicators. Hint Bitcoin has more Room to rise. Anyone who looks at technicals, fundamentals, pool, multiple pie cycle, top indicator, Mr. VRV, Z score, all the things we've made up here to convince ourselves that we understand markets, none of them say that the top is it.
C
I'm a big fan of the Larry Fink indicator. So I don't know if they covered that one in that article but they keep, you know, on behalf of customers gobbling up bitcoin as quickly as they can. And I, I'm going to assume that they're, you know, not having conversations with customers that says well we think the local top is in and we're going to go down. Significant mirror. You know, I've got some reply guys on, you know, my page are like we're going to 22K. We're going to you know, 37K. I'm like are you out of your mind? You know that that's not like, like that's not how BlackRock gets down. So you know, anytime I see that stuff I simply just want to post a picture of Larry Fink's face. The other thing that I think is, is important to know is, and the, and the Bloomberg guys put this out, I can't remember which one but it shows who owns Bitcoin ETFs right now. And it started out in the first few quarters fairly institutional but at this point the most owned bitcoin ETF subsection is investment advisors. Meaning that across all the investment advisors, Morgan Stanley, UBS, RIAs, large RIAs, small RIAs, those that are buying the ETFs the most are connected to investment advisors that are buying on behalf of clients and their portfolios. So absolutely not the top. You can you know, use the local top. Is it a, you know, that's never the top. It's just, that's the whole point of bitcoin. It's literally never the top. So those are my thoughts.
B
I think it's funny that we were all throwing y2k esque parties not but a few months ago when we cracked 100,000 mark. Yeah, like it was the greatest thing that's ever happened in bitcoin. And it's the, we've made it to the end of the rainbow.
A
That was New Year's dude. That's like 400 years ago.
B
And now everybody's, you know, mad because it's ranging between it's now new high of 123 and you know, 109 or wherever we are this morning. It's, it's, it's signal and noise like we always talk about those, you know, people who are saying that it's the top. Maybe they're crypto OGs, maybe they've seen the tops and they're terrified of them because the tops in previous cycles have been very, very difficult to catch. And so if you have that mindset based upon your previous experience, maybe that's how you live. But to Andrew's point, Larry Fink isn't a short term investor. All the things that are coming online, all the news that you hear about every single day, they're not turning a speedboat, they're turning the Titanic. I mean, they're turning a massive boat. And it doesn't take, you know, a month to turn. It takes years to turn those types of operations and get in crypto integrated. So I, maybe it's the local top, but who cares is the point. You know, try to time the market. If you think you can time the market down to this level of certainty, yeah, I got a bridge to sell you. It's because it doesn't work. You know, if you, if you sit here and say, hey, 123 is going to be our local top before we retrace to 60, you're just, you know, you're in the dark arts because nobody has that information.
A
I would just say that I don't want to run the Titanic.
B
It was an illustration of how slow it turned, Scott.
C
I don't know.
B
Another big ship's name. All right, the USS Nimitz. How about that?
A
The Nimitz is a, it's a classic. Truly, truly famous. In the annals of history, has anybody.
C
Ever defined the term local top? What does that even mean? Local, like this week is, is that like in, in. It's the, the top of bitcoin in Tampa. I mean, or, or in, or in, you know, Colorado. I mean, what are we talking about? Like, these terms are such, they're, they're nebulous. Nobody even knows what they mean. But you sound smart when you say them. That's a, you know, I think it's a local top at 124. And then we're going to range for a while. We could go lower. And then that's how I talk in real life.
B
Well, it's a, it's a disguised way of stating the obvious. What you're really stating is, is that it's gone down. Okay, well, great. Yeah, it's gone down a little bit. All right, so it, I agree. Agree totally. It's not something to even pay attention to.
A
In my mind, I had literally no Idea that Andrew was a 1930s gangster. What are you doing? We're gonna go down and get.
C
Somebody did tell me that I needed to start over there in public earlier, late last week, so.
B
Well, Andrew's looking for advice. You know, he doesn't drink, he doesn't do drugs. He's as clean as a whistle. So I said, hey, you know, as you get old, you could get one of those big pipes, the corn cob pipe, and sit on your porch in.
A
Kentucky and, you know, they may not be drinking. He's not joking.
C
He was dead.
A
Doesn't need a pipe to have a vice.
C
I don't know. I think if you came on one of the shows with a pipe, that.
A
Might add a little bit of aura. How many kids? How many kids you have?
C
5.
A
With how many people?
C
I don't want to. Let's not get into that here.
A
Wow. Okay. So anyways, listen.
B
Let's just say that Elon Musk is Andrew's hero. Okay? He's going Elon Musk style.
C
Listen, I'm committed to the repopulation of the. It's important to me. It really is.
A
Yeah. So, you know, I think you made the most important point trying to re. Steer the Titanic back to something sensible here, which is you could go lower. You know, like, who cares if 124 is the August top or the September top? I would. I keep saying I would love to buy bitcoin in the 90s right now. I would love that.
B
Well, I almost think it's almost an. I think it's an inevitable almost. And here's my logic behind it. 100,000 was such a psychological barrier that you're going to have to retest it. And not just retest it with a couple of bounces, a retest it with a dip below it. That puts the fear of God in everybody. And you want to see what that. What buying floor looks like, right? Sweeping liquidity doesn't mean the price goes right to the price. It means it has to sweep below the price and grab all the liquidity and. And really take that portion of the market out. And so, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if we see touch 94, 96, because that's a number that'll get people's attention. They'll start bailing on the 100.
A
You know, you haven't read the comments. It says that if we go back to 100k, it's over, clown.
C
It is. Oh, my goodness. It's remarkable.
A
Like, if it factually. No opinion here. If Bitcoin goes to 99, 900. It's going to zero. I mean, it's 99999 0.
C
It is something to behold. You know, we've, everybody on this show has been in the markets for a long time. You know, human emotions are completely undefeated. Like they are undefeated. Nobody is, Nobody goes to that length. That comment, right? Like, what kind of comments are you getting when bitcoin is shooting from 117 to 121 to 122? My guess is the comments are you get less comments in that type of an environment than you do when it's moving to the downside. And it's, and it's, I mean, that has happened with pricing in the markets, both traditional and crypto, for forever, literally for half a century. That's how it works. And it's, it's. I don't know, it boggles my mind that people haven't figure out, figured out then when you get a comment like that.
B
I don't know, Andrew, I don't, I think he was being facetious. I don't think the comment was being.
A
He's been in here a lot. He's, he's very.
C
Well, facetious or not, irrespective of the comment. Just take a look at the, the, the vibe on crypto Twitter. Right.
B
Well, here, here would be my point. So what if we do go down. We were at 80,000 Friday, April 11th. Like this thing is we, we don't. We talk about volatility literally every time we talk about bitcoin as its key features. Volatility doesn't just go one way. Volatility is both ways.
C
You could add to the commentary on traditional markets over the past nine months. Like every three weeks, there's an existential crisis created by somebody somewhere and we're going lower. If you just spend about 15 minutes, listen to a guy like Tom Lee, he was on the compound of Friends. Apologize for talking about another podcast on this podcast. But he says, like V shape recoveries are the norm. They're not abnormal. They're actually the norm. And you know, everybody wants to talk about a, you know, potential bear market. But, you know, we're in, we're in year three of 20 plus, you know, percent returns. This year we're up, you know, 10 plus percent. It could be 20. Bear markets don't happen in periods like that. There, there, there's a bigger chance that we're at the beginning of another extended bull market period than a coming bear market. And you know, the host.
B
I would argue that we're on The Verge, like even, even the term bear and bull in my mind, talk about short durations of time. Five years, four years, three years. I think the, the disruptive nature of the technology of blockchain AI quantum computing, the things that humanity is on the cusp of integrating into the fabric of society, is so groundbreaking and so game changing and so inclusive to the world's population of people. There is no doubt in my mind that the printing presses have to keep going to include all those people have to have money to be included in our system. So if you're onboarding a rapid number of new users and you don't have the liquidity in the network to support the users, what do you do? You go get liquidity in the network and they have a very simple method to get liquidity. They just hit the printing button and the liquidity comes out. And so it's just like the path of least resistance. And the things that they've used to control financial markets since the dawn of time, probably going to still use them today. And there's no doubt in my mind like that they're going to print a lot of cash between now and, you know, the next decade. And so if you look at the macro environment of the technology that's coming around and the power of the capital that's being applied to that technology, there's so much growth potential and so much upside for investors. It doesn't feel like a, the start of a bear market. It does. We, I feel like it's at the start, we're start at the start of a new industrial revolution, something that's literally going to capture the attention of every human, human being that hears the news in any form or fashion on the earth. I think we're closer to that than we are to some, you know, grave report that could be issued by a human being. Because Bitcoin doesn't care about those reports. And the adoption curve that we're on with Bitcoin and the, the safety that it's representing in a new world where you want collateral that's digitized by Google. I just, you know, we're again, I think we're at the very beginning of the, of the horizon, if you will.
A
I mean, you know, the people who are going to be really, really upset when they find out that this is not a bear market. It's all these people who got liquidated. 167,791 traders got wrecked in the past 24 hours with total liquidations hitting 759 million. We've been seeing these 500 to a billion days in liquidations over and over and over again. And Bitcoin's 110 grand.
B
So I have a question.
A
All your money when Bitcoin's $110,000?
B
Well, when those liquidation events happen, a lot of people think of them as an effect. I think it's the cause. I think that when you get a market that's highly leveraged that can be moved, the big one, the big players are there for the action and they're going to move it and they're going to find those liquidation points. And that's what I'm talking about as it pertains to the liquid sweeps. If you find a zone that's heavily, you know, leveraged and we're close to the zone, and you're a market maker, you're one of the big Wall street firms that are now engaged in bitcoin's price. Well, it doesn't take much like the trigger event that quote was the cause of it, you know, was that guy that sold, you know, open market market order some large quantity of bitcoin. You know, that's just the headline that there's a lot of people that once they saw that said, oh, there's the scapegoat, trigger the cells and then there you get this cascading event. That's exactly what they want. Why? Well, cascading events take. Take you through liquidity zones and wipe out everyone that has any margin in that zone. So if you're somebody who has liquidity behind your margin and can recapitalize the trade like they can, you know, it doesn't matter how much volatility. In fact, volatility is good for you because it shakes out everyone but you and all your friends that have the cash and the staying power. And it reminds me of an old adage that somebody told me. It's like the markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. You know, it's like you gotta have money at depths of market makers to try to play that game.
A
Yeah, I agree with all of that. I just don't understand how you get liquidated for millions of dollars. Just buy the bitcoin with all that millions of dollars and go get a hobby, go buy a turbo S with those liquidations.
C
You know, it's again the, the human mind and the emotions associated with it and trading. I'm sure it's been studied ad nauseam and will continue to be studied ad nauseam. But you know, stupidity finds a new place to play in that particular arena and that graphic is a. Is a pretty good example of just that. You know, you're making binary bets based on, you know, a highly volatile asset that again, is. Is bound to, oh, in one direction pretty quickly. So it's, you know.
B
Yeah, but listen, in anything in life, it's like half the story. The risk is there, you're right. But the reward is too. Look at that James Wynn guy that caught fire this year. You know, he just had a few.
A
Caught on fire.
B
For a while there. He was the bell of the ball. He. Everybody was trying. And I think there's a lot of people that still believe that story exists where you can be right five or six times in a row on highly leveraged trades and that you can, you know, turn 10K into 100 million. You're. You're right, you can. The odds are against it. But if you keep playing that game, you're inevitably going to go broke just like James did. And so it's.
C
Why.
B
Why pursue a path that leads inevitably to loss? The. And catastrophic loss.
A
James Wynn. More like James lost. All right.
B
Hey.
A
You know, you know what probably is going to go up a lot at some point this cycle. Not that we ever talk about this, but. But Solana. And I'm gonna tell you why. I'm gonna tell you why, dude. Like, if you guys are paying attention to the treasury company market, because obviously, like, we saw Tom Lee and he came out and he made a big stink about eth and kind of him and Lubin started this war for Ethereum treasury companies and they went flying. I mean, I don't know if you saw these announcements today. Pantera Capital. This is Pantera. This isn't like a joke of a, you know, reverse merger. Pantera Capital eyes 1.25 billion raised to create Solana treasury firm report. Well, oh, and by the way.
C
Yeah, there you go.
A
Galaxy Jump and multicoin with Cantor Fitzgerald as the bank are doing a billion for buying Solana. If you look at the Solana ETH chart, actually Solana looks quite good and bottomed out, if you're looking at that kind of thing. But. And I actually, I will be very soon sharing offices for my new studio with my 12 by 7 LED screen. You guys gotta move down nice. I'm gonna look like I'm in Times Square on the moon doing shows. Gonna be amazing. You guys are gonna look horrible on zoom next to me.
B
I'm moving into a new office on the 6th, so I gotta keep going now. I know what I need to go buy is a Giant digital shared office.
A
With Upexi, which was the first Solana treasury company Equity, my first wallet over there. So, yeah, so like I, I, you know, I've been kind of hearing the bubbles of all this, but nothing to do. But this is like, this is, if you know that there's 2, 3, 5, 9, $12 billion worth of buying coming into a smaller asset, it's probably going to do pretty good.
C
Yeah, there's, there's, you know, I, I put out a, let's call it a, a medium take, not a hot take a couple days ago. You know, the, the, at the time the overall crypto market was sitting at a little more than 4 trillion. And the take was we're going to go from 4 trillion to 50 trillion in the next 15 years. And those headlines are just again, the small little seeds that get you there. That between, you know, the AI movement and then just the extraordinary 10 lane highway that we're on From a regulatory standpoint with crypto, we're simply going much, much higher. What are the pivots and changes and adjustments that get us there? I can't make that prediction, but I do know that there are a lot of smart people that are thinking the same thing. And some of those smart people are asset managers, are asset allocators. Our regulators are executives that have lots and lots of capital to deploy.
B
So I think they're looking, I think they're looking also at the case studies that have already been presented to us. Ethereum's case study was very clear during the ICO craze. We saw what it's, its adoption potential was, its true transactional throughput potential, the fee structures, the proof of work versus the proof of proof of stake. Like they learned a lot during that and they've adopted a lot of the knowledge that they've learned into new protocol. That's why they're proof of work now and proof of stake now instead of proof of work. I think Solana proved in spades its utility during the whole Meme coin phase. Like if you ever used any of those platforms to do any of that, you were blown away. At least I was, I was left going, this is as close to an Apple feel as I can get from an interface perspective. Seamless integration, very easy to use. So easy to use that you had preteens minting their own meme coins and controlling markets at 1am in the middle of nowhere. So like I think that the, the investment bankers and the true, legit, truly legit folks that are wanting to place capital in these Markets are looking at all these past evidences of your true utility because that's what I think this next phase of blockchain is going to be all about. It's about integration and utility. If you can integrate and make that integration perspective, you're in the club. So I just think Solana has already proved that to anybody that's been paying attention and you can apply that to any number of legacy business models and it becomes something that is a true marketplace that you could pop up instantly for. Merch launches, all sorts of fun things that it's proven to be the best use case for that specific chain. So I think Solana absolutely has a huge future. And I also am impressed with the fact that, you know, we had this massive price crash this, this bull run in the last, you know, few months. Well, there's a lot of, you know, if you look at Ethereum, how much it's gone up over the last like there's a lot of catch up to be had with Solana, I think. So I'm right there with you, Scott. I think that's a really good choice.
A
Yeah, I mean we've got treasury companies for everything obviously. BNB has been making new all time highs. We just had one announced. I like that, I like all these, they're fine and whatever. I have no particular but Berkshire Hathaway of bnb, it's quick.
C
Listen, the whole, the whole treasury, the pure treasury strategy play is there will be winners and losers. It will, you know, there'll be people that make it through to the other side. Berkshire Hathaway of BNB probably will not make it to, through the other side. You know, just making a, a really bold claim there but happen. Yeah. What we will find remembered like Buffett.
A
I don't know why you're so down.
C
Yeah, it, it, you know, I just, I just continue to, to, to think what I do is I follow really, really closely Eyes and Black Rock. I, I, I follow those two collection of financial minds very, very closely. What is bitwise saying? Macro. What is BlackRock doing? Macro. Oftentimes they match up much more than you think. And bitwise in the last 18 months has gone from 2 billion in assets to almost 16 billion in assets. It stands today. That's something. Right. And BlackRock is, you know, got their fingers and hands and everything all through the crypto space, way more than just a couple of of ETFs, Bitcoin and Ethereum. And so they're making a bet that the rails and, and everything that's going to run Finance on a go forward basis over the next three to five years is going to be associated with crypto and blockchain and the like. It's why their Biddle portfolio has absolutely exploded. And inside of that portfolio are things like Avalanche and Aptos and Polygon. Right. And so their bet is these things are going to be used, as Tillman said, in a very utilitarian way. And when you get to high levels of utility, there's really no end to potential price discovery because it's being used more and more and more and more. Same thing with Bitwise. They put out a, a, a, a research paper in the last couple days associated with the reality that Wall street is now coming to them and saying, hey, we, we need research, we need some information associated with the fact that we've put clients into these products. Tell us more. Over the past eight years, nobody on Wall street has asked them about that. Now they're getting it in spades saying, hey, can you tell us more? We need to know more. We need to be able to hand people something that says this is why we believe what we believe. Right. And there it is.
A
Yeah, I wrote all about this in my newsletter today. It was pretty powerful stuff.
C
Yeah.
A
Kind of makes you feel silly for talking about whether bitcoin price is going to be 108 or 112.
B
Yeah, well it's the, it's the big, it's the big boat versus the small boat. Right. Those, those things take a lot of time and they're part of that whole movement and they're building the infrastructure. And you know, I, I thought this notion a long time ago and let's apply it to the banking side of things. If Taylor Swift launched a coin successfully and made it the central coin for all transactions within her ecosystem, merch tickets, everything, the value of the coin would go up. She could mint as many as she wanted and give them to her best fans, therefore making her best fans financially independent and wealthy. So think about it from a banking adoption perspective. Your fidelity, you're some of these big financial institutions, your name means so much. You endorse some of these coins, you are part of the ecosystem. Your adoption curve actually lends itself to the price appreciation for the customers that you manage and hold the money for. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. Like if they integrate right then the new technology has more market share, therefore the price goes up. And that integration is done based upon customer demand that they've have from within their walls. Therefore the, the self fulfilling prophecy is that all of those customers and the ones that they get into those coins are naturally going to reap the benefits of that appreciation. And if you're in the business of holding trading and, and charging fees against those balances, that's a no brainer way to grow your market. That's, it's a, if you do it successfully, you can single handedly make everyone within your four walls rich. No different than a big hedge fund who happens to know a secret sauce place to put the money that gets these high yields. I think that the crazy thing that people are having a hard time getting their mind around is that the secret sauce here is just buying bitcoin. In most cases you're going to outperform everything. And you would have definitely over the last 16 years if you had done what Scott said is just like try, don't try to outsmart yourself. Just get in and be one of the early adopters.
C
So if you think about it, if investment advisors are the largest holders of Bitcoin ETFs even as of right now, and they're just now asking Bitwise for additional research, this is the first year that they've done it. Think about how small that number is compared to total portfolio values across wealth management organizations. It's, it's very, very tiny, but it's going to grow. You can't listen to a guy like Rick Edelman, who's the Larry Fink of, of wealth management, say, listen, this isn't a 3 to 5% deal, this is a 10 to 40% deal. You know, you sound crazy until the apocalypse actually hits. And, and you've been talking about apocalypse for the last 10 years. Like at some point you sound really, really smart and he's going to sound really, really smart and there's going to be a subsection of people that say, all right, I'm going to put 10 of my clients money in Bitcoin. This is what we're going to talk about at quarterly meetings. Every time I'm going to say this until they get it. Well, you know, 18 months from now, the amount of Bitcoin ETFs owned by registered investment advisors are going to be 5x what it is today. In other words, there's a floor underneath the overall price of bitcoin and that's not going away. It's a high floor. It's going to continue to be a high floor because that dynamic is not going to change. Rick Edelman is not going to wake up in six months and say, yeah, you know what about that 10 to 40 thing? I was way off, way off. My bad. No, that's, that's not, that's not what's.
B
Going to happen for a quick second. There's something that just popped up 20 something minutes ago in the news of Trump Media. Did you guys see that they just cut a deal with crypto.com? yeah.
A
It was something about their wallet. So I didn't, like, I didn't quite. That's why I didn't mention it because as I dug in, it kind of like the first headlines didn't make much sense. You were like six billion dollar deal. I'm like, it looks like they're using their wallet. I don't know. But.
B
Well, they're, they're funded by a billion dollars of CRO token cash. Tokens, cash and warrants that have a 5 billion credit line from Yorkville affiliate. So it's a massive deal. The one thing that's striking me about this deal is that I haven't talked or heard about crypto.com in years until the bitcoin conference. And they had a bunch of people there that, you know, came and talked to all of our team. You know, they evidently are making a push back into the market based upon the regulations and the clarity and these types of deals. I mean, I, being in bed with Trump Media over the next two and a half years, I don't know how you ignore the upside potential there. But you know, Eric, if you had bought when he told you to buy East, I think you'd be in a pretty, pretty good spot right now.
A
I don't know.
C
It's an ongoing. Again, it's, it's the, it's the high four type of argument every time we talk about any individual announcement. These announcements happen every day. I mean, just on this show we've talked about two massive, massive billions of dollars worth Solana treasury announcements as well as Berkshire Hathaway, you know, bnb. Now we're talking about Trump Media.
B
Well, not just Trump Media. Listen, the entity will be a digital asset treasury company focused on the acquisition of Kronos.
A
Yeah, by the way, that, that token, that CRO token had. I can't, I don't want to like fud, but there was some crazy story. Now, I can't remember entirely from like a month or two or three months ago where like they just decided to print a whole ton more of them or something. I think, man, I don't want, now, I don't want to be fud, but like, that, like they had a plan and basically they like printed a bunch more to fund operations or something, I don't know.
B
Well, here's what's interesting though. Private entities, right, Taking public chains that have been around for a long time and using them for their own purposes and for their own use cases. That's the story to me is like you're seeing real world companies partner with huge amounts of cash. It says, I mean, the credit line from York affiliate of Yorkville is basically a blank check. So it's just again, more money coming in from the unsophisticated crypto investor partnering with a quote, sophisticated crypto investor in hopes of, you know, garnering market share.
A
Okay, I just want to make sure I wasn't fudding.
B
So this is from March Burn tokens are gone forever. Right. So many.
A
Crypto.com burned 70 of the CRO token supply in 2021. Now it wants to do over to package the tokens into an etf. There's no way that can't be the Stever. Okay. It's different Steve. Or like, my God, I was so triggered. The CEO of Voyager was Stephen Ehrlich. Kind of looks like it, but no. So at least I'm not making things up right now. Yeah. So these deals are going to be a dime a dozen every five seconds. And Arch Public is going to be the way, by the way. So we're working on getting that set up with Red Light Holland, which we've talked about before, and they're just dying to buy. Actually made an announcement. I think it'll press release that as we're getting set up, bought a couple hundred thousand more worth of IBIT this morning on this dip because I was like, buy the dip, bro. So, you know, that's the company obviously that I'm helping with their bitcoin balance sheet strategy along with these two guys. But that's also a nice segue into all the amazing things that are happening on Arch Public.
C
Yeah, there, there is simply we've passed a couple of significant milestones in terms of the total customers that we serve. And so we can take a look at data and take a look at what people are sort of finding comfort in. And what that means is over the past couple months, people are even sort of bitcoin maxi folks are coming to the table and saying, listen, volatility is a feature. Bitcoin volatility has slowed just a bit, but it hasn't slowed on the likes of Sui and Solana. So people are taking algo setups. They're harvesting enormous amounts of volatility associated with Sui and Solana and then they're taking that yield that comes from that volatility and they're putting it back into bitcoin setups. Both on the arbitrage and accumulation setups associated with our bitcoin outgoes and the outcomes have been absolutely incredible. We have conversations with people and folks that are fairly sophisticated. People can say this is completely adjusted and changed the way that I look at my holdings and how they act or react. I'm almost begging for dips to happen so that I can watch the algos go grab those dips for me, devoid of human emotions. And so, you know, the folks that work with us, our service teams, our concierge folks that set these up for folks at times and give them the opportunity to, you know, go out and grab volatility, people are responding in a significant way and just simply stacking more bitcoin on the back of overall crypto volatility.
B
Right. Well, and that's just to dig a little deeper on the arbitrage strategy and how flexible it is to that end, if you want to trade the volatility, you can set the, the width of the candle that are the length of the candle that you determine to be a sale and, or a pump. So you can set these parameters exactly to what you want. Why is that important? Well, as the market shifts, like bitcoin has become less volatile than it has in previous cycles. Well, if, if that tightens and you want to still stick with bitcoin, you can tighten those parameters and you can give it instructions to take more trades. There will just be more or less price movement in those trades. You'll make less money. So a lot of people are just gravitating towards the more volatile assets like Sui, like Solana, and they're setting up what we call one to one arbitrage. So it's, you know, whatever entry they have, they have the exact exit when the price goes up. And so they're, they're just, when those events take place, they're just creating profits. And then they take those profits, like Andrew said, and roll them into more of an accumulation strategy over a longer period of time into BTC or some of the other assets that they want to hold for a long period of time. But it's a way to supercharge that accumulation. As long as that volatility remains in that asset that you're trading, then you're going to be able to harvest it.
C
And in three developments that have happened over the last month or so, you can now use our tools on Gemini Kraken And Coinbase. All three of those are available to you. One, you can also use these in a tax advantage way. We have relationships with an IRA company directed Iraq, so you can, you know, deal with taxes in that way with a qualified account. And then three, we are in the last four days of our dog days this summer, extraordinary discounts on our concierge program. I can actually say, because these are the last four days, we're talking about 30 and 40% discounts. So if you've ever been interested in being concierge program, now is the time. Literally now is the time. I believe that Scott sent out a, a really, really committed tech post yesterday. He said, do it.
B
Well, here's the thing, we've given the.
A
Product away for free from Nike.
B
If you, if you haven't taken advantage of that, you know, do so because seeing is believing. And the people who are upgrading to the concierge are not people in most cases, 90 plus percent of the time. They're not people that haven't tried the software, the people that have used it and they're saying, I want more of it. So it's a real, it's a real eye opener to say the least. If you have not used automation, especially self directed, self initiated automation, it will open your eyes and give you a sense of empowerment and a sense of control over the markets that you have not had before.
C
And we love the conversations with people that say, well what about this? Does it work in bear markets? Or I'm skeptical. You know, I've used other algos or heard about other algos that they don't work. We just simply say, hey, no problem, it's free. Use it, go use it, go try it, it's free. If you think we're full of you know what, it's free.
B
Well, in fact we, we want all that feedback. If you use it and you don't like it, call me. I want to hear why you didn't like it and I want to see if there's an improvement. It's like we're constantly building, I don't know what iteration we're on, but hundreds of iterations. And so we, we, we built this at the very beginning as a selfish endeavor because we wanted the tools. It's a pain to live in the crypto markets where you're a slave to 24, seven monitoring and emotional swings. Like I've lived that since I got into crypto, where the bed side table has a phone on it that's going off every time there's a dip or every Time, there's a pump and like that type of emotional turmoil is not something that's sustainable. And so these tools are things that you can say, I want, if these conditions are met, I want to buy. If these conditions are met, I want to sell. And it'll let you allow you to determine how much you buy and how much you sell. And you just set those and forget it. And so now you don't have to sit there and have those alerts going off. It's a completely hands off approach based upon you making its strategic decisions and layering instances up for when you want to buy and when you want to sell. And that keeps the emotion out of it. It keeps you from breaking your own rules. There's just a lot, it gets you better fill prices because it's triggering based upon math in the moment that you can't possibly keep up with and calculate with. There's all sorts of advantages that once you use it, you're going to go, aha. This, this is a game changer.
C
Yeah, we're available in Europe. Everywhere that Gemini, Kraken and Coinbase is. Right. So we are.
B
And Tradestation.
C
Yeah, our, our tools are, you know, exchange agnostic. Right. So the ones that we've integrated with Tradestation, Gemini Kraken and Coinbase, you know, wherever they have availability, we have availability. It's that simple. So Europe, just a question of where you are in Europe. You know, I don't know if, if Kazakhstan is in Europe or is in some place that I haven't heard of.
B
But you know, we have a ton of European customers. So yeah, just reach out to us and we'll try to get you set up with an exchange that services that area.
C
Yeah, just reach out and say, hey, I'm in such and such. And we'll, we'll be like, okay, yeah, we looked it up, you're good to go.
B
You know, and by the way, that's.
A
A great, there's a great nice point.
B
Of teaching here that for everybody who hasn't used it and thinks, you know, based upon the reputation of the industry, that you should never trust somebody to custody your money. Let me alleviate any of those fears. We do not custody your money. That's why we don't have any control over where you can use our software or not, because that's determined at the exchange level. So if you have a crypto exchange that you're able to utilize in your country, let us know what that exchange is and we may put it on the integration list going forward, depending upon how much Demand is there. But you know these Gemini, Kraken, Coinbase and soon to be Robin Hood, they are the ones that custody your funds. They are the ones that you interact with from a, you know, turning the software off, turning it on. So all, all you're essentially doing is plugging our software into it and utilizing it in, in, in a communication bridge.
A
And what a bridge it is. What a bridge it is fellas.
C
What a bridge.
A
Dude, it's awesome. And we got a lot less haters about it now. I'll say. I see in the comments it used to be at the beginning it was like, oh, whatever. And then slowly people start using and then they just kind of give up. Just like wait, it actually makes people a lot of money in bitcoin. And by the way, there were people in there that are like, oh, we pivoted. Which is funny. You pivoted from buying bitcoin holds ever for let's day trade bitcoin with Arch Public. It's not that this is not about day trading bitcoin. It's about utilizing the volatility of other coins to get more bitcoin that you don't need to sell ever. It's a smart accumulation strategy to do it better. That's why this has become so popular. My thousands and thousands and thousands of people are using it. Because this isn't about day trading for income. This is about getting more bitcoin with the money you were going to buy bitcoin with anyways.
B
It's about a force multiplier. It's stacking, compounding on compounding. And when you can do that in a hands off approach, then it's, it's systematic and it doesn't require a lot of attention, time and effort.
C
You know, an example that I've used from time to time with customers there, there's a big difference. You still get heat if you've got a, you know, a wood burning stove in your house and that's your heating source. Right. You're shoveling wood into it all the time and it's going to do heat. There's a big difference when you got multiple, you know, things on your wall and you can set it to 70 on the low end and 72.5 on the high end and it's going to stay there the whole time. Right. That's a, a significantly better experience in terms of comfort in your home.
B
Well, one's manual and one's automatic, right? Yeah, I mean and, and it's user driven. So you get to determine what the, thermostat in your house says. And then everything behind the scenes reacts to what you want. That's a great analogy, Andrew. I haven't heard you use that one before, but that's very, very similar. You could go and you could have wood burning furnaces in every room and you could tend them all 24, 7. On really cold nights, you might have to wake up at 1am Put some more wood in there. Or you can just hook it up to, you know, a large heater and have an H vac ductwork system and thermostats put in and then it's all done for you. You right. But it's still what you want and it's still the outcome that you're determining. If you want it 78 in there, which God help you, then you can set it to 78. If you want it to 65 like me, then you can set it to 65.
A
Gotta get it cold, man. You gotta get a cold 65. All right, I gotta go. All right, I did it. We accomplished it. You guys go to Arch public, yada yada yada.com, yada yada. Do the thing, the place and make money and bitcoin. It's amazing. I saw people now because we were talking about cars saying they want to upgrade just so they can go to the track days.
B
Yeah, we got addicted. I will tell you, we will have some more track days. That's. In fact, I. I saw there's a few of the. The track kind of performance centers all across the country. So maybe there will be one closer than Vegas.
A
Yeah, yeah, we got those around. This is the car. This is the one I was talking about, by the way, guys.
C
Oh, wow.
B
Yeah, yeah, it looks cool until there's fluid leaking out of it and you're on the side of the road. That's what's.
A
It's called an ass tin for what I've heard.
B
Hey, quick. I saw Nicole Kidman one time in Franklin, Tennessee pulling into green to Whole Foods. And she had a like, what looked to be. I don't know, I'm not a big Aston Martin guy, but what looked to be the latest, greatest brand new Aston Martin. She was parallel park, she was parallel parking and her rims grinded on that concrete curve. And I could hear it from across.
C
The room at the International Woman's Day on that one right there.
A
I think it's like International Dog Day or something. So it. So it looks so nice though. Yeah. You don't buy the new ones. These things depreciate like 90 in a year now.
C
You know what doesn't depreciate? 9 11s.
A
I know. So I've been in three places of late randomly looking at McLaren's. I think I told you guys this, but I haven't told everyone else I'm a McLaren fan. Like, I don't know, the, the GT, the gentleman's McLaren, it's like a tour, you know, and every single time they're like, it's a shame what happened with these. And I'm like, what? Every, every guy, they're like, well, they got the reputation for being, you know, crypto bro cars that got their money through scams. So like we can't get serious people to buy McLarens anymore. I heard it at every single dealership. Like, which is sad because this one's, you know, it's like a gentleman's car.
B
Well, that's because you're a crypto bro. You fit the demographic. Scott.
A
Yeah, I'm like 50 almost. They're telling you, they're like all these 25 year old kids buying their, you know, five, seven.
B
Listen, I think you said it at the very beginning before we came on Turbo S, man, that's the only way to go.
C
It's well known. This is a piece of wisdom for both of you. It's well known across high level executive car guys. So people that work at, for Toyota executive, all of those guys, they have their cars for their, the pace they work at. But their sports car, all of them have a 911.
A
They have a 911 single. Like time I listen to a interview with like an XF1 driver or something. What Inevitably like the interviewer is like, so what's your daily driver? And every single one of them's like a 911 something.
B
They're bulletproof. They, they hold their value up. They, you can drive them. I, I listen, you can buy one.
A
That's the thing. It's like they all look the same. That's what gets me.
B
It's like, well, the GT3RS doesn't look the same. So if you have to have the different look and the show off, you know, pop and wow, then that's, you know, like the rapper says, GT3RS with the wing out. You got to have that big wing. I've got three sons. I, I have no choice but to absorb that.
A
What were you gonna say?
C
Okay, cool.
B
All right guys, because I guess the.
A
Point, yeah, it's been, been a pleasure. This is quickly, has become the most fun certainly hour of my week because sometimes I even talk about crypto but, you know, whatever. Well, I'll see you at a track day soon. Everybody try Arch Public. Tillman and Andrew, thank you as always. See you guys next. See you guys later.
B
That's dope.
The Wolf Of All Streets
Host: Scott Melker
Episode: Was $124K the Bitcoin Top? Or Is the Rally Just Beginning?
Date: August 26, 2025
Scott Melker, joined by regular guests Andrew and Tillman, dives deep into the ongoing debate: was the recent $124,000 Bitcoin high the final top, or are we just getting started with a new rally? The conversation weaves through Bitcoin charts, ETF flows, trading psychology, liquidation cascades, the emergence of treasury companies, and the future of both Bitcoin and altcoins like Solana. The team also discusses emotions in trading, evolving institutional dynamics, and promising opportunities in crypto yield strategies.
Market Pullback Realities:
Scott sets the stage, noting Bitcoin's drop from $124K to around $110K and how minor retracements often cause panic in the crypto community.
"Bitcoin is showing some weakness, trading at $110,000 after going down into the 108. Of course that means that the top is likely in… But... every single indicator… says just the beginning." – Scott (01:00)
Indicators Are Bullish:
30 out of 30 major technical and on-chain indicators (Pi Cycle, NUPL, Z-Score, etc.) still see room for upside.
Scott jokes about the proliferation of proprietary signals which “convince ourselves we understand markets” (01:28).
Institutional Flows Are Rising:
Andrew highlights that the largest holders of Bitcoin ETFs are now investment advisors—a shift from pure institutions. This points to longer-term inflows, not short-term speculative tops.
"Absolutely not the top… It's literally never the top. That’s the whole point of Bitcoin." – Andrew (03:31)
Long-Term Perspective:
The crew pokes fun at the concept of a "local top," emphasizing how such labels are arbitrary and driven by emotion, not fundamentals.
"What does that even mean? Local, like this week?" – Andrew (06:52)
Cycles of FOMO and Panic:
The psychological aspect: when price is going up, people are quiet; when it drops, panic and bearish sentiment rise quickly.
"Human emotions are completely undefeated. Like they are undefeated." – Andrew (10:24)
Volatility Cuts Both Ways:
Volatility is why Bitcoin is exciting, but it works in both directions. Dips below $100K might spook the market, but are likely healthy “liquidity sweeps.”
"If you think you can time the market down to this level of certainty, yeah, I got a bridge to sell you." – Tillman (06:02)
Liquidations as a Feature, Not a Bug:
Large liquidation events are more a cause than an effect. Big players intentionally trigger stops to drive prices and shake out weak hands.
"When those liquidation events happen, a lot of people think of them as an effect. I think it's the cause..." – Tillman (15:39)
"The markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." – (17:13)
Macro Bullishness:
Both Andrew and Tillman argue that we are not even in a bear market; macro conditions—AI, blockchain, global onboarding—signal another era akin to an industrial revolution.
"I think we're at the very beginning of the horizon." – Tillman (14:42)
Liquidity & Printing Presses:
Governments will continue to print money to fuel new technological adoption and inclusion, boosting assets like Bitcoin.
"The printing presses have to keep going… There's no doubt in my mind that they’re going to print a lot of cash between now and the next decade." – Tillman (12:54)
The Solana and Treasury Company Surge:
General Treasury Firm Proliferation:
Industry-Wide Bullishness:
Andrew: "The overall crypto market was sitting at a little more than 4 trillion… The take was we're going to go from 4 trillion to 50 trillion in the next 15 years." (21:00)
ETF Demand Is Just Starting:
Advisors now own the most Bitcoin ETFs, and they’re just beginning to request research from firms like Bitwise (29:58).
"Eighteen months from now, the amount of Bitcoin ETFs owned by registered investment advisors are going to be 5x what it is today." – Andrew (30:05)
Bank & Brand Adoption:
Institutions and brands like banks or, theoretically, a Taylor Swift “fan coin” could create self-fulfilling value surges for integrated tokens, benefiting early holders and further institutionalizing crypto.
"If they integrate right then the new technology has more market share, therefore the price goes up." – Tillman (27:46)
The tone is casual, witty, and sometimes self-deprecating. The hosts blend technical insights with market cynicism, humor, and candid talk about trading psychology and adoption. Their skepticism of the “top is in” crowd is obvious, as is their confidence in both BTC’s longer-term upside and the growing place for productized crypto strategies.
For listeners, the takeaways are clear: ignore the noise and short-term panic—indicators, institutional flows, and macro trends continue to suggest the rally is just beginning. For those with a longer-term perspective, the best path remains steady accumulation and strategic use of volatility. Meanwhile, the emergence of treasury companies and mainstream ETF participation signals a maturing and expanding market. The only “tops” that matter are those you survive emotionally and position for strategically.