← The Wolf Of All Streets
Loading summary
Transcript45 lines
- [00:02]
A
Was $126,000 bitcoin the top and is this cycle completely over? Will bitcoin fall alongside all other ad sets into the fourth turning and great global crash that is apparently imminent? Or is this just a pause on the way to much, much bigger things driven by all the incredible tailwinds that we can see very transparently happening before our face? NLW and I are going to break it all down right now on the Friday 5. Let's go. Let's do. Let's do. Good morning everybody and welcome to the Friday 5 and welcome to my esteemed co host, NLW.
- [00:55]
B
What's happening?
- [00:56]
A
You know man, it's, it's so over. We're so back. It's so over. We're so back. It's so over. We're so back. At 120 we're going to zero and at 125 we're going to 185.
- [01:05]
B
It's science indeed. It's the, the, the great conundrum of our existence and the thing that gives our days meaning and purpose to debate.
- [01:15]
A
So what do you make of this price action? Obviously we did have bitcoin somewhat sweep the all time high with a shocking lack of conviction and then dropped back down temporarily below 120,000. Obviously all the technical analysts and chart guys are screaming that if you want to break out, you want it to look powerful, have a ton of volume, have a ton of follow through, we didn't really see that. So I guess that's where a lot of the concern is coming from. Past cycle we saw 65,000 high and then price briefly hit 69 and then way back down under 20. So I think it just gives people PTSD.
- [01:50]
B
Totally. Yeah. Look, I, I think that we're in, we're in macro world right now, but bitcoin is being considered on its own terms in that context. So right now I think you have the, the idea of a debasement trade has surged this week. Now it had a little bit of a blow off with gold going down a couple percent over the last few days. But basically there, there's now this sort of big conversation of this idea of the debasement trade which will seem extraordinarily familiar for all of you listeners here who have been in crypto for a long time. It's the of thing that we've been talking about forever, but it is now kind of a recognized idea. And there are folks who are not just named Larry or Fink in the tradfi space who are articulating this as well. And, and so why I say that it's sort of macro but bitcoin and crypto have its own stake in that is that I think what's going on are sort of broader wobbles in the, in the, in the larger environment. But they are. But bitcoin has its own story in that narrative. Right. It is not sort of just a, you know, high beta ass stocks. That's, that's at least my read right now. You know, I don't often do this but I do not think that we are, There is not a cycle end here because we're. The stock cycle is not over. Kind of zooming out of crypto and just looking at the conversation that's happening in major markets. Obviously AI is and continues to be this huge theme. We had a deal between OpenAI and AMD this week that really reignited conversations around circularity. We had an information article which suggested that Oracle's profits were thinner than they seemed on, on their data center or their chip rentals which wobbled, which wobbled temporarily. Oracle's market. And what you have right now is a real difficult challenge for investors in the, in, in, on Wall street where there are all of these sort of, you know, bubble signals for them. But at the same time there is, it's very hard to see how it stops soon. And so you also have you know, retail and others coming in and sort of saying like is it time to liquidate the 401k and go on all in on stocks? You know, like is OpenAI now officially too big to fail? And so this is a classic sort of, you know, PTJ Paul Tudor Jones basically said, I think this was last week. You know, we're all set up for a, for kind of a huge, huge sort of run before it, before it all goes. And it kind of feels like that's the, the moment that we're in right now. But if anything like that happens, stocks continue to rip in sort of traditional markets. Bitcoin's not going to stay where it is right now.
- [04:31]
A
Yeah. Tudor Jones basically predicting a crack up boom before the doom and gloom inevitably hits. What I find really interesting about this though is a bitcoiners have been talking about the debasement trade forever as you said.
- [04:44]
B
Yep.
- [04:45]
A
And that the fact that you needed to own bitcoin was, that was the main reason. But interestingly this is the first time that I can really remember where I'm not hearing from major institutions and these huge names that bitcoin is going to crash alongside the stock market. You have Paul Tudor Jones saying your hedges are bitcoin gold and the nasdaq, right? The others, JP Morgan Citadel saying some combination of bitcoin gold, bitcoin silver gold. All of them have bitcoin in the conversation. And as far as I can remember, this is the first time we're really seeing the mainstream narrative of bitcoin not being a risk asset and being a digital gold or a hedge against the basement across the board. It's pretty surreal, actually.
- [05:29]
B
It is. I think that what people are finally grokking is this thing that, to be fair to others who are outside of the space is unintuitive. Which is, is bitcoin a risk on or a risk off asset? The answer is yes. And that's really weird for people. It is very weird for a single asset to have both of those dynamics at once. But the reality is it just does. Bitcoin, when times are ripping, it looks like a risky asset because there's a huge portion of the world for whom it is the thing that's farthest out on their risk spectrum. And so it is a risk on asset only. But then there's this other increasingly large group of people anchored by all of us idiots over here who will never sell at any price, for whom it is this risk off asset that the greatest risk off asset that's ever existed. And the more people who fit into that, the more it has this, you know, these sort of dynamics. And now that people can give it a name and understand its correlation. Right, for how. Think about for how many years it's been people trying to even wrap their heads around what digital gold means. I think that the debasement trade part of why that narrative is resonant and important is that that's actually what bitcoiners were trying to say for a very long time. It wasn't just a risk off asset. It was very specifically about a lack or a reduction of confidence in the monetary system more broadly. Right. And so, you know, look, and they're. They're catching up.
- [06:49]
A
They're catching up. And it at least plants the seed in the mind of investors that if you believe a crash is coming, bitcoin might actually perform well and not be high beta and perform worse. And even always had the expectation in everyone's mind that bitcoin crashes harder than.
- [07:05]
B
Stocks, even more than that. And again, not to get all turbo bull sailor on everyone, but like, if you are. So look, here's the thing that's tricky about if you're convinced that AI is a bubble Right now. You know, I think everyone at this point realizes that AI has sort of put the entire economy on its back and is just carrying it or at least the, let's call it the expectations and the hopes and dreams of AI. If we're, if we're being sort of nuanced about it there's, it's very hard to see how that would unwind quickly like from the immediate term.
- [07:33]
A
Right.
- [07:33]
B
There is almost no leverage in that system right now. When people are getting nervous it's because you're. Bain Capital Markets put out a report this week that the total cost of the data data center build out by 2030 is going to need to be a couple trillion dollars and we're going to be 800 billion short. That's 2030. And there's very little debt in the system right now. At least anything other than sort of just corporate bonds. There's no leverage. Most of these companies are still spending their capex off their balance sheets. There's no room for sort of like a massive leverage un in the immediate term. Now the circularity of revenue with all of these companies means that they are kind of linking themselves up together in a way where if we see in call it a year, two years, whatever that demand pro. The demand profile for AI is wildly lower. It's actually not useful. Whatever a million kind of combination of things, you could see it all come together, unwind together quickly but not in the immediate term. So okay, coming back to what we were talking about. If you are an investor who is pretty convinced that things are getting crazy out there right now, who is convinced that there are sort of big wobbles in the larger system that are structural, that have nothing to do with just AI and stocks right now. Boy does Bitcoin look good as something that can ride it all the way up on the, on the up and then still have this sort of narrative low end on the other side, you know, it just, it looks extra good right now I think and my guess is that at some point the sort of, you know, folks are going to grock to this.
- [09:00]
A
Totally agree with that. As an aside, on my show yesterday afternoon with Mike McGlone and Gareth Soloway, Mike said I'm going to make a bold statement I've never made before. Sell everything. So just, just putting that out there. He said sell literally everything. Buy bonds. Anyways, next story. Galaxy launches Galaxy One bringing institutional quality financial offerings to individual investors. It seems like Galaxy is definitely following through on their intention to be the Goldman Sachs of crypto assets. There's a lot of different products here to unpack 4% yields on cash deposits, over 8% yields for premium I think is what they called it. But obviously institutional level trading and products surrounding the entire crypto ecosystem here seems like they're going straight ahead against not only the Schwab's and Morgan Stanley's of the world, but the Coinbases and Robinhoods.
- [09:57]
B
Yeah, I think one, one part of the story is everyone competing against everyone to be everything to everyone is sort of like if you, if you need a sort of a shorthand for, for people's strategy right now, that's, that's sort of it. The other piece though is I don't know about you, but anytime I start to see yield numbers promise that are out of sync with mainstream financial offerings, that, that's where, that's where my PTSD starts to get a little bit triggered, which is not actually about this at.
- [10:27]
A
Length the other day when this dropped, I was like, it just feels wrong. I'm not saying there's anything untoward. I'm sure that there's a way. Dave Weisberger actually live on show like signed up for Galaxy One on Monday and read the disclosures and it's definitely a security and the risks are all there. It's not, you know, obfuscated away like a Celsius or a voyager, but damn, 8%.
- [10:50]
B
Well, and also, also and I think, you know, I, I, I don't, I don't want to ever sort of judge people by their past. And you know, I think that the perception of BlockFi is that it kind of got caught up in things. But the products being run by Zach Prince. Right. So it's, there's even more echoes of, of the past here that you know, just trigger, trigger all the feels, you know, look, if someone's going to do it, Galaxy is, they're live listed on the nasdaq. They're, they're like, you know, this is, this is not a Johnny come lately sort of fly by night operation. But yeah, I think a few people have had the same reaction of, I remember 2021 and 2022 with this, with this particular announcement.
- [11:31]
A
I mean how do you feel about them as a legitimate competitor? Do you think we're just gonna see 50 of these? I mean I have a feeling everybody who can is going to launch everything company. Right.
- [11:42]
B
My guess is that they're going to be table stakes and the question for companies is going to be sort of two parts. One is what can be their anchor sort of differentiating Thing which gets people in the door, which they want to then incrementally how much of this other stuff can they carve off? It seems very difficult to go head to head with the other big players on this stuff, you know, just, just with how much space there is. But you know, their, their assessment is some combination of either they think there is a differentiation opportunity that people aren't getting, maybe they're using that sort of yield as, as the hook to try to pull that in, or they think that just there's going to be so much opportunity in this space that it's just about claiming your little piece of that pie. And that little piece of the pie is going to be a, a big piece, you know.
- [12:25]
A
Right. And maybe they don't feel that anybody has quite captured the entirety certainly on the institutional side of the crypto equity crossover because they're saying you can trade both. Obviously you can do that on Robin Hood.
- [12:36]
B
Right.
- [12:37]
A
And that's coming to the Schwab's and the Morgan Stanley. It's been announced. But maybe they can really thread the needle and find the audience that's dying for that product, you know, and to be able to blend those for, you know, securities lending and things like that, which I assume is inevitable.
- [12:52]
B
There are, there are brand reasons why you can see Galaxy better positioned than Coinbase or Robinhood for some of this stuff. You know, even if Coinbase has had this robust institutional business for a very long time, they are still broadly, from an outside view, associated with retail. They're the, the American kind of retail crypto app, Robinhood even, even more so.
- [13:11]
A
Right.
- [13:11]
B
That's the sort of the, you know, the D Dren GameStop app. So you know, there is probably a, a narrative slot to, to play to try to sneak in there. And you know, the other thing is too, it's, we may be victims of, you know, our limited, limited imaginations of where the market is right now in terms of how much there is to carve up. You zoom out 10 years and it could be that just planting the flag now means that there's just an enormous opportunity. Right. This isn't, these aren't winner take all markets. There's so much in, in the financial space that, you know, there's a lot of room to, to grab some, some piece of that pie.
- [13:44]
A
Speaking of planting your flag for some financial opportunity, our next story. Poly Market founder is youngest self made after deal with an IZ owner. Obviously Intercontinental Exchange, that being ICE. I mean this is just wild man. $20 billion, excuse me, $2 billion strategic investment from ICE, putting them at a 9 billion post money valuation. And this is just absolutely insane to me because they went through so much. I mean, this kid, if you read the article, I don't want to call him a kid, but obviously Shane, I mean, was literally taking inventory of the items in his apartment after dropping out of NYU to sell stuff to make rent. He showed pictures of him on a laptop in a makeshift office in his bathroom and he was raided by the FBI. They paid fines for the cftc. This was effectively illegal. It's still not even available in the United States. Here he is a billionaire.
- [14:42]
B
Yeah, I mean, massive validation of the category. Such a smart, to me, this is such a smart investment for, for, for ice, who by the way, not for nothing, have, have tended to use their full name more recently, I would say.
- [14:58]
A
And I reported this, I was like, not the guys in masks. Yeah. You know, throwing people out of country.
- [15:06]
B
So, you know, look, I think that they, it's, you got to think if you watched what happened around the last, you know, the election at this time last year, it is just so clear that, that, that prediction markets have a massive stake in the future. I don't think that anyone knows exactly how they're going to fit in. They really are their new category. In fact, one of the interesting conversations I've seen from a couple folks is that, you know, basically asking, are prediction markets the first sort of crypto primitive after the next crypto primitive after stables to really fully infiltrate and influence the, the sort of broader system? I think it's an interesting question. And yeah, I mean, big, big deal. Very, very validating for the category. Certainly validating for the company themselves. The Kalshee Poly market fight's going to be going to be a really fun one. It's going to be, you know, create, it's going to create a lot of great ad content if nothing else.
- [15:59]
A
And by the way, quietly, Robin Hood has predicted prediction markets like, publicly available on their site for all to see. They're not the only two players. And you know, we're going to see incumbents come in and definitely try to grab a piece of this pie. I don't think that the biggest exchanges on the planet are just gonna let Kalshi and Polymarket run with this.
- [16:21]
B
No, of course not. It's, it's a, it is a massive growth category for sure.
- [16:26]
A
Yeah. Okay, our final official story of the day. I'm sure there's a thousand more we could have talked about, but Democrats propose restricted list for D5 protocols and bill that could kill sector. I guess we've taken a hot tub time machine back a few years here to headlines that we would have definitely had in 2023. But it seems that everybody woke up and found a really un, just a really gross regulation proposal from Democrats that according to even Uniswap could completely outlaw defi wallets and crypto development in the U.S. the industry is obviously freaking out over this. What's going on here here.
- [17:08]
B
It was always going to be this. It's always some defi back door. It's always some D5 front end regulation. I mean it's always. This is the fault line there. There are two great fault lines historically for the, these sort of legislative stuff. One is the securities definition. But it's been pretty clear for the last couple of years that we were able to find ways to get over that. You know, figure out some space for things to be a security or commodity or have some in between weight like we got over that one. This is the next one. And this is really the big barrier between between us and reasonable crypto legislation is where the hell defy sits in the bank secrecy regime. That's, that's really what it comes down to. You know, I think that the question which we'll, we will have to wait and see on is to what extent this is. I think that at this point we can't, we no longer can even consider the idea that Democrats might just not understand the implications of what they're suggesting. I think that they do. That's, you know, we, we thought that all the way back in the infrastructure bill in like 2021. It's the first time this came up and it wasn't even the reality back then.
- [18:13]
C
Right.
- [18:14]
B
So they know what they're doing. So the question is how much is this a basically just a line in the sand unwillingness to allow defi to exist as such in the US versus a negotiation tactic to you know, pull the other sort of parts of the legislation towards more, you know, regulatory control in other ways. I don't know the answer but this was always going to be the, the, the, the, the, the third rail, the fault line that, that did or did break it. I mean, I think that there is a, I don't know who knows. I don't know if they can get there. I just don't know what the, what the state of the debate is.
- [18:51]
A
Yeah, this feels like one of those things that we won't be talking about again ever in a week because we can't even get the main legislation onto the floor yet this is like a sidebar to the sidebar of the main legislation. I guess it's is a signal that there are still fights to be had and will be in the future.
- [19:08]
B
The, the, the, the highest potential compromise said from an outsider, you know, non sophisticated understanding of, of Washington would be this is the type of thing that I can see them agreeing to punt. Basically like having some small concessions to Dems for being willing to remove this from main market structure legislation. Because there are such core things that need to get figured out like for example who regul markets in the US which is still indetermined at this stage. There, there might be enough momentum and enough sort of bipartisanship in the parts that they have figured out to be willing to agree to leave this a question for another day. And you know, honestly at this stage that might be the, the only outcome that we can hope for. But who knows, maybe there's more room than we think.
- [19:56]
A
Yeah, I just very seriously doubt that under this current regime things like this are going to be a talking point. I guess it's one of those things that to you know, throw, throw a, throw it up on your board and wait and see if the Democrats come back into power and Elizabeth Warren started screaming about things like this again. If she actually, you know, ends up as the chair of the Senate Banking Committee or something.
- [20:17]
B
Yep. Yeah, but. Well, I mean you know, it depends if it's, if it's a big enough deal the Democrats to derail stuff like everyone's in a very brinksmanship mood right now. So I don't know. I'm, I'm, I'm certainly not confident enough to say that we're gonna, they're going to figure it out.
- [20:31]
A
No. No. So I, I don't think the 70 year old guys and gals up in the House are going to really understand defy, much less figure out how to reasonably regulate and legislate it. Anyways, that's all we have. Are there any honorable mentions? I mean it was kind of a, it's just very steady these weeks. To me the debasement trade is the really the kicker. I just can't believe we're seeing the Ken Griffins and JP you know it wasn't Jamie Dimon to be fair, but like Ken Griffin there's like, you know at this point it's like there's the evil emperor and, and, and Darth Vader and they're talking about our thing.
- [21:07]
B
I think that you know, listen to, to Summit in some weeks market action is just a thing to talk about. It doesn't really have much meaning. It's just about sort of like broader patterns of liquidity and stuff. I actually think that right now markets are trying to figure out the balance of where they want to go and what they're going to be concerned about. I think that sort of incremental market movements right now are telling than the average sort of incremental market movements. So you know, who knows, by next week we could be in a totally different paradigm and mindset. So that, that's kind of what I'm watching.
- [21:38]
A
Sounds about right. Everybody check out nlw. Of course, check out the breakdown where he dives much deeper into all of these topics on a daily basis. Incredible. Listen, that's all we got for you today. Thank you guys. We will see you next week. Bye.
- [21:53]
B
Later.
- [21:54]
C
AI is reshaping the world. But right now it's stuck in the hands of just a few big players. But what if AI could run openly, verifiably and on chain? That's what zero G is building. The world's first decentralized AI operating system open to everyone. Imagine a network where you don't just trade tokens. You train, store and run independent AI models at scale. No lock ins, no black boxes, no single point of failure. Just, just quick, cost effective, auditable AI that anyone can build. If you believe the future of AI should be a public good and not just another corporate monopoly, join us at 0 g. AI. That's the number 0 and the letter G. AI.