The Wolf Of All Streets: Whales Buy $23B BTC as Market Rises?
Crypto Town Hall | December 18, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Episode Overview
Scott Melker and a panel of crypto experts dissect the current confusing market dynamics: Bitcoin trades around $88K amid low retail enthusiasm, conflicting narratives about whale and long-term holder activity, and significant institutional maneuvers. The episode explores how fundamental innovations (Coinbase’s custom stablecoins, DTCC tokenization), macroeconomic influences (stimulus checks, elections), and investor psychology intertwine in a maturing crypto market.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Market Status: “Uninspired” Price Action Amid BTC Whale Movement
- Bitcoin at $88K, Sideways Action: Despite lackluster price movement, significant underlying activity and fundamental developments persist.
- Conflicting On-Chain Data:
- Reports of $23B in BTC whale buys in a month.
- Simultaneously, more than $300B in dormant whale BTC moved this year.
- Narrative Split: Are whales net buying, or are old whales leaving as new ones enter?
“There's one thing that says we have $23 billion in Bitcoin buys in the last month by whale wallets. While we have conflicting stories that there's been $300 billion of whale selling including over the past month.”
—Scott (01:06)
2. Whales vs. Long-Term Holders: Understanding On-Chain Behavior
- Institutional Dynamics: New whales aren’t necessarily long-term holders — institutions may be buying from old whales exiting positions.
- Short-term vs. Countercyclical Behavior:
- Long-term holders: Often price-agnostic, cashing out after years.
- Whales: May be short-term, countercyclical, and often institutions/hedge funds.
- Data Insight: 78% of recent volume from transactions >$1M — dominated by big players.
"There's a difference between whales and long term holders. What you've seen is long term holder selling...what you're seeing now is like whale buying...crypto hedge funds...have increased exposure countercyclically into this correction."
—Andre (06:46, 07:56)
3. Altcoin Narrative: Retail Absence & Muted Excitement
- Altcoins in the Shadows:
- Current cycle lacks retail-driven “alt season” enthusiasm.
- Institutional flows mostly target Bitcoin, not altcoins.
- Altcoin Risks:
- No strong narratives or innovation to excite long-term holding.
- Potential opportunity for majors, but caution for anything else.
"The altcoin narrative right now is very shaky...outside of the majors I'd be pretty nervous. But bitcoin's a whole other narrative."
—Lawyer (04:46)
"The problem here is that retail have no money. And alt season is very much driven by retail money. And it's just not here. No one has money."
—E (37:29)
4. Coinbase News: Stock Trading & Custom Stablecoins
- Expansion: Coinbase launches stock trading and custom-branded stablecoins (white-label “Scott coin” possible, fees shared with issuers).
- Business Implications:
- Strategic move to become an all-in-one finance app.
- Stablecoins as marketing tools, potential blow to credit card processors.
- Partnership with Shopify seen as future-proofing, giving merchants tools to bypass card fees.
"It's like affiliate marketing for stablecoins. Like I can have a Scott coin that's a stable coin and share in the fees. Seems pretty, pretty epic..."
—Scott (08:28)
"It's really another way to make contact with your customer and give them value and have a unique relationship."
—G (18:25)
5. Institutional Tokenization & the DTCC Announcement
- DTCC Going On-chain:
- Received SEC greenlight to tokenize securities on blockchain rails; Canton Network chosen, supported by Wall Street giants.
- Surprising lack of market impact for relevant tokens.
- Investor Skepticism:
- Value may not accrue to token holders — driven by institutional insiders, not public markets.
"DTCC...settles literally every securities transaction in the United States just announced they're using this blockchain and it's not particularly liquid and it's up 7%...How is that humanly possible?"
—Scott (28:04)
"There's a question of whether the value will flow to token holders. And with all these big banks being the major supply holders..."
—Lawyer (28:39)
6. Market Sentiment & Structural Shifts
- Maturation of Markets:
- Past stories that once moved prices by double-digits now barely register.
- Greater investor education means tokenomics are scrutinized before hype.
- Retail Frozen Out:
- Absent stimulus, market largely institution-driven.
- Retail speculation muted compared to previous cycles.
- Value Accrual Dilemma:
- Real adoption happening, but is the average investor losing out as value is captured upstream by insiders and institutions?
"All of this adoption is making this asset class uninvestable for the average person because the value is just not going to accrue."
—Scott (33:27)
7. Macro Factors: Stimulus, Elections, and Future Catalysts
- Stimulus Checks (“Warrior Dividend,” Tariffs):
- Some minor direct payouts already in play, larger ones may return pre-election.
- Retail liquidity required for any altcoin revival depends on broader economic factors (employment, stimulus, monetary policy).
- Election Year Dynamics:
- Panel expects both US parties likely to incentivize voters with direct payments.
- Potential macro tailwinds for crypto if stimulus/fiscal expansion returns.
"If they fire up the printer and start, you know, throwing cash out of the helicopter, then maybe that's the catalyst we need."
—Scott (38:47)
8. Speculation on the Next “Alt Season”
- Barriers:
- Mass retail needs “fun gambling” and idle cash amid liquidity.
- Without stimulus or strong macro tailwinds, hard to see explosive retail-driven altcoin rallies.
- Possible Sparks:
- Macroeconomic surprises (jobs, consumer confidence).
- Regulatory clarity (doubtful in itself to spark major rallies).
- Shift of “degen” capital out of betting/prediction markets and back into early-stage crypto projects.
"I do think we see that capital rotate back at, at some point. I think people are degening so hard because they think...there's no options."
—B (41:17)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Market Ennui & Cycles:
“We're so jaded. We’re just so dated.”
—Scott (03:17) -
On Altcoin Hope:
“People will stop caring again when certain things start to feel like crash game again...then they jump in and that causes more jumping in.”
—Lawyer (37:02) -
On the Evolution of the Crypto Market:
“Part of the promise of this market was that the average everyday person could get access to...new companies at an early stage...I’m just not seeing it.”
—B (30:15) -
On the “Stimulus Effect”:
“The problem here is that retail have no money...If you look at the state of just society right now, there isn't as much money circulating.”
—E (37:29)
Timestamps for Major Segments
- 00:00–01:40: Market status, conflicting whale narratives
- 04:36–08:28: Whales vs. long-term holders, institutional flows
- 08:28–13:55: Coinbase’s product launches and implications
- 13:55–18:25: Conference recaps: Bitcoin Vegas vs. Solana Breakpoint
- 18:25–24:47: Stablecoins, business models, future of finance
- 24:47–28:39: DTCC’s blockchain move and impact on tokens
- 33:00–38:00: Tokenomics, value accrual, and altcoin investor prospects
- 38:00–45:06: Macroeconomic catalysts, stimulus, and potential for retail revival
- 46:12–47:00: Could regulatory clarity ignite another alt season?
- 47:00–End: Closing thoughts and preview of future discussions
Episode Takeaway
The crypto market is maturing, with institutional capital, caution, and real-world adoption taking center stage. While fundamentals seem stronger than ever, retail excitement is missing, and the historic booms of altcoin “seasons” have not returned. The future of value accrual, retail participation, and true decentralization are in flux, awaiting fresh macro or narrative catalysts—perhaps a new round of stimulus, clearer regulation, or broader macro improvement. For now, Bitcoin remains the cornerstone, and the industry is “jaded but still here”—awaiting what comes next.