The Wolf Of All Streets: Will Bitcoin Drop Below $100K?

Episode Release Date: August 6, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guest: Peter Cheer, Academy Securities

1. Introduction

In this episode of The Wolf Of All Streets, host Scott Melker delves into the tumultuous world of cryptocurrency with guest Peter Cheer from Academy Securities. The primary focus revolves around the potential downturn of Bitcoin, the rising prominence of Ethereum, the dynamics of crypto ETFs, and innovative approaches to combating crypto-related crimes.

2. Bitcoin's Price Outlook and Market Sentiment

Scott Melker kicks off the discussion by addressing the pressing question: "Will Bitcoin drop below $100,000 in 2025?" He references data from Poly Market Traders, highlighting a slight bet on this scenario. Furthermore, he underscores a bearish sentiment reflected in options trading, noting a 10% higher volume of put options compared to calls—an uncommon trend in the crypto market.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [00:01]: "Poly Market Traders are betting slightly that this [Bitcoin dropping below $100K] will happen."
• Scott Melker [04:28]: "The block options data show traders hedging for Bitcoin drop below 100k."

Peter Cheer offers a contrarian perspective, suggesting that this bearish tilt could be a natural market correction after a phase of significant growth and profit-taking. He emphasizes the importance of building a solid foundation for future adoption.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [05:41]: "I actually like this. I think you've kind of lost some of that FOMO. It's giving time for a base to build."
• Peter Cheer [06:19]: "The crypto community can move almost at light speed. The large corporations are going to have to go through this carefully."

3. Ethereum's Strength and Institutional Interest

Transitioning to Ethereum, Scott highlights its impressive performance, noting an 80% increase since it bottomed against Bitcoin. He points out Ethereum's resilience and renewed interest, especially following positive technical and fundamental developments.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [02:39]: "Ethereum bottomed against Bitcoin, it's up roughly 80%."
• Scott Melker [03:44]: "Ethereum looking pretty good still here from a technical and I think fundamental perspective."

Peter concurs, distinguishing Ethereum from Bitcoin by emphasizing their different functionalities and appeal to institutional investors. He suggests that Ethereum's modularity and control make it a more attractive option for large-scale investors compared to other altcoins like Solana.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [03:44]: "I actually don't see Ethereum and Bitcoin really as competitors at all. They're kind of two different spaces."
• Peter Cheer [04:28]: "There's that slippage. Right. Where are we next? Who's the next adopter?"

4. Crypto ETFs and Treasury Companies

The conversation shifts to the performance of crypto ETFs, specifically noting significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs juxtaposed with inflows into Ether ETFs. Scott and Peter discuss the implications of these movements, considering factors like seasonal trends and investor strategies.

Scott raises concerns about the sustainability of treasury companies like MicroStrategy, which trade at a premium to their net asset value (NAV). He argues that such premiums are justified by the company's strategic positioning and future plans to act as a Bitcoin bank.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [07:02]: "A lot of these. And so for Bitcoin, seeing 100,000 and below as a heavily betting on a painful move back below $100,000."
• Scott Melker [11:14]: "I think these are the topics of the day and it's my show and I want to talk about them... the premium is justified."

Peter provides a critical analysis, suggesting that the value proposition of treasury companies is diminishing as more accessible crypto investment options emerge. He anticipates a natural correction as investors reassess the premiums associated with these entities.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [10:02]: "Where is the value add? And again, I think MSDR is light years ahead of others..."
• Peter Cheer [12:49]: "People who own the underlying cryptocurrency and... they're short the new carry trade."

5. SEC Regulation and Impact on Staking and Stablecoins

The discussion moves to recent SEC decisions, particularly the ruling that certain liquid staking activities fall outside securities law. This development is seen as a positive step towards integrating staking revenue into crypto ETFs and broader financial products.

Peter emphasizes the potential for growth in stablecoin products, especially as regulations become clearer. He foresees a shift of funds from traditional money markets into innovative stablecoin offerings that can offer competitive yields.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [08:33]: "SEC passed some information rules that should make it easier to pass the staking that you can get."
• Peter Cheer [16:39]: "If they can offer a yield. Right. If they can do something that competes with the money market yield side..."

6. Licensing Privateers to Combat Crypto Theft

A significant portion of the episode is dedicated to Peter Cheer's visionary proposal on enhancing crypto security. He introduces the concept of licensing privateers—private entities authorized to combat crypto theft—drawing parallels to historical privateers used during wars.

Peter outlines the potential structure, suggesting that existing crypto security firms could apply for "letters of marque" to officially act against cybercriminals. This approach aims to bridge the gap between the rapid evolution of cyber threats and the slower pace of governmental response.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [21:30]: "Letter of mark. But, you know, I think we should be exploring something like this that could move very quickly and solve a lot of the problem."
• Peter Cheer [23:56]: "They're going to have to come up with a proposal... They could have all these counterattacks very quickly on the crypto thieves."

Scott engages with the idea, comparing it to private security contractors like Blackwater, highlighting the historical efficacy and potential modern applications of such a strategy in the crypto realm.

Notable Quotes:

• Scott Melker [25:24]: "The government isn't going to do it, right? If the government's not going to do it, well, that's that's history of privateers or private industry to do things better than the government."
• Scott Melker [27:00]: "Hackers and scammers are always one step ahead of the white hats... Security ends up being reactive."

7. Market Structure and Future Innovations

The episode concludes with a discussion on future market structures and the continuous innovation within the crypto space. Scott and Peter touch upon strategies like staking and DeFi to achieve higher yields, emphasizing the importance of adaptability and expertise in navigating the evolving landscape.

Peter anticipates substantial product innovation in stablecoins and real-world asset integrations over the next few years, driven by both regulatory clarity and technological advancements.

Notable Quotes:

• Peter Cheer [18:15]: "They're really trying to use the asset to generate additional returns that people will pay up for if they're successful."
• Scott Melker [17:49]: "I think staking and using DeFi to beat any other coin is much easier."

8. Conclusion

Scott Melker wraps up the episode by acknowledging Peter Cheer's insightful contributions and the depth of the discussions. He encourages listeners to follow Peter on social platforms and stay tuned for future episodes that promise to delve even deeper into the intricacies of the crypto world.

For more insights and updates, be sure to subscribe to The Wolf Of All Streets and follow Peter Cheer on X.