Podcast Summary: The Wolf Of All Streets
Episode: Will Trump DESTROY Bitcoin Or TRIGGER A Massive Bull Run? | Macro Monday
Release Date: February 10, 2025
Host: Scott Melker
Guests: Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, James Lavish
1. Introduction
In this episode of Macro Monday, host Scott Melker delves into the intriguing question: Will Trump destroy Bitcoin or trigger a massive bull run? Joined by macroeconomics experts Mike McGlone, Dave Weisberger, and James Lavish, the discussion navigates through Trump's pro-crypto policies, market reactions to tariff announcements, and the broader implications for Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency landscape.
2. Trump's Pro-Crypto Stance and Policies
Scott Melker opens the conversation by highlighting Trump's seemingly pro-crypto administration, noting the favorable legislation and appointees. However, he raises concerns about potential conflicts arising from tariffs and trade wars that could pressure the economy and risk assets like crypto.
Notable Quote:
"By now, everybody is aware of Trump's pro crypto stance, of all of his pro crypto appointees, of all the legislation and regulation that's seemingly going in favor of the crypto industry. But this could be in direct conflict with tariffs and trade wars..."
— Scott Melker [00:01]
3. Market Reactions to Tariffs and Trump's Moves
The panel discusses recent tariff announcements by Trump, specifically the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and their immediate impact on markets. While traditional assets like Bitcoin and gold experienced initial volatility, Dave Weisberger notes that the broader market seems to be shrugging off these threats, indicating a resilience among crypto investors.
Notable Quote:
"The market is shrugging this off. It sounds like it's just another threat, and they're waiting to see what actually happens."
— Dave Weisberger [07:18]
Scott observes that despite headlines of crypto prices sliding due to tariffs, Bitcoin rebounded, suggesting that the crypto market may not view tariffs as a significant risk at this point.
4. Bitcoin and Crypto Market Analysis
James Lavish provides an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin's current market behavior, describing it as being in a "coiling spring" pattern—a period of consolidation before a significant move. He contrasts Bitcoin's relatively stable performance with the volatility in the broader cryptocurrency market, attributing this to speculative investments and meme coins driving out liquidity.
Notable Quote:
"Bitcoin is in a 5% range... and money from outside the crypto world is still coming into crypto, and you're seeing people in the crypto world cashing out, looking to buy in later."
— James Lavish [07:59]
James emphasizes that institutional investments remain bullish, while retail sentiment is bearish, setting the stage for a potential massive bull run when the "big money" drives prices up further.
5. Interest Rates and Treasury Yields
Mike McGlone discusses the Trump administration's focus on lowering 10-year Treasury yields to around 4.2%, as suggested by analyst Ana Ira Jersey. He explains that reducing yields could require a temporary dip in the stock market to restore balance, a strategy aimed at long-term economic stability.
Notable Quote:
"Don't underestimate the desire of a Trump administration to get 10-year yields lower. Which, you know, has been one of my calls and I haven't been right yet."
— Mike McGlone [03:46]
Dave Weisberger adds that despite increased tariff pressures, the market is not reacting strongly, implying that the monetary environment may remain supportive for crypto and other risk assets.
6. Discussion on Gold and Stock Markets
The conversation shifts to traditional safe-haven assets like gold. Mike posits that gold has been outperforming recently and could potentially be a better investment than Bitcoin due to its historical stability and market demand.
Notable Quote:
"I still stick with gold and I think it's going to be the better play than Bitcoin this year."
— Mike McGlone [15:48]
James Lavish, however, offers a nuanced view, suggesting that while gold remains a strong asset, Bitcoin has the potential to outperform it as the crypto market matures and institutional investments grow.
Notable Quote:
"I expect Bitcoin to outperform gold, but I expect both of them to outperform the S&P over the rest of the year."
— James Lavish [33:05]
7. Implications for Bitcoin and Potential Bull Run
Scott Melker synthesizes the insights, asserting that despite short-term volatility driven by tariffs and economic policies, Bitcoin is poised for long-term growth due to fundamental developments such as institutional adoption and strategic reserves being accumulated by states and companies.
Notable Quote:
"If the big money's buying and the small money is bearish, they're just going to be the ones who catch up when prices are much higher. That is the recipe for a massive bull run."
— Scott Melker [58:26]
James Lavish echoes this sentiment, highlighting the disconnect between retail and professional sentiments as a catalyst for significant upward movements in Bitcoin's price.
8. Conclusion
The panel concludes with a consensus that while Trump's policies introduce both opportunities and challenges for Bitcoin, the overarching trend remains positive. The intertwining of favorable crypto regulations, institutional investments, and strategic economic maneuvers suggests that Bitcoin is unlikely to be destroyed by Trump’s administration. Instead, these factors could collectively trigger a substantial bull run in the cryptocurrency market.
Final Notable Quote:
"These tariffs don't seem to matter much for Bitcoin, maybe for gold. That's all we got."
— Scott Melker [58:48]
Scott Melker wraps up by reaffirming the bullish outlook for Bitcoin, driven by fundamental strengths and strategic investments, despite the temporary setbacks posed by tariff-induced market fears.
Key Takeaways:
- Trump's Crypto-Friendly Policies: While supportive of crypto through favorable legislation and appointments, tariff pressures introduce short-term volatility.
- Market Resilience: Bitcoin shows resilience against immediate market threats, indicating strong underlying support from institutional investors.
- Gold vs. Bitcoin: Both gold and Bitcoin are seen as safe havens, with potential for significant gains, though Bitcoin may outpace gold due to its digital nature and limited supply.
- Interest Rates Impact: Lowering long-term Treasury yields could stabilize the economy, benefiting risk assets like Bitcoin in the long run.
- Institutional vs. Retail Sentiment: A bullish stance from professional investors contrasted with bearish retail sentiment sets the stage for a potential bull run in Bitcoin.
This episode provides a comprehensive exploration of the intricate relationship between political policies, economic indicators, and the future of Bitcoin. For those interested in the intersection of macroeconomics and cryptocurrency, this discussion offers valuable insights into potential market movements and investment strategies.