1.13.25 Supreme Court arguments on the TikTok ban, economic trends for 2025, and stories of unyielding bravery

Summary

The World and Everything In It – Episode 1.13.25 Summary

Release Date: January 13, 2025

Host: Mary Reichard

Co-Host: Nick Eicher

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I. Introduction

In this episode of The World and Everything In It, WORLD Radio’s Mary Reichard and Nick Eicher delve into pressing national and international issues. The primary focus centers on the Supreme Court’s deliberations on the TikTok ban, the latest economic forecasts for 2025 with insights from economist David Bonson, and inspiring stories of remarkable bravery during aviation disasters.

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II. News Segment

A. Catastrophic Wildfires in Los Angeles

The episode opens with a grim report on the devastating wildfires plaguing the Los Angeles area:

• Kent Covington reports that catastrophic wildfires have claimed at least 16 lives and caused unprecedented destruction in LA County [01:00].
• Louisiana County Sheriff Robert Luna describes the affected zones as resembling war zones, emphasizing the severity of the situation [01:11].
• Paul Tran highlights the hazardous conditions, mentioning downed power poles and smoldering fires, urging caution [01:15].

Key Points:

• Evacuations: Approximately 150,000 residents were under evacuation orders as of Sunday.
• Firefighting Efforts: Thousands of firefighters are battling the flames amidst challenging weather conditions, including sustained winds of 50 mph and mountain gusts reaching 70 mph [02:03].
• Emergency Preparedness Critique: Questions arise regarding Southern California’s disaster preparedness, with President Elect Trump criticizing environmental policies that allegedly diverted water from the region [02:37].
• Government Response: California Governor Gavin Newsom has ordered an independent review of the drying hydrants and extends an invitation to President Elect Trump to visit the affected areas, showcasing resilience and hope [02:46].

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Reichard: "Catastrophic wildfires in the Los Angeles area have now killed at least 16 people while causing historic destruction." [01:00]
• Paul Tran: "Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday." [01:23]

B. Policy Responses and Political Reactions

The discussion transitions to the incoming administration’s priorities:

• Trump’s Agenda: With the inauguration imminent, President Elect Trump is set to sign over 100 executive orders, focusing heavily on border security and immigration enforcement from day one [03:20].
• Congressional Hearings: GOP lawmakers anticipate congressional hearings to authorize aid packages for California, demanding accountability on the state’s disaster response [03:20].
• Cabinet Confirmations: Senate hearings for Trump’s cabinet nominees are underway, with some nominations, like Pete Hegseth for Defense Secretary, facing significant opposition [04:06].

Notable Quotes:

• Senator James Lankford: "If someone has violated the law in the United States, there should be consequences for violating the law in the United States." [03:55]
• Paul Tran: "We are a nation of laws." [04:06]

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III. Supreme Court Case on the TikTok Ban

A. Background and Legal Arguments

The crux of the episode revolves around the Supreme Court's consideration of the TikTok ban under the Protecting Americans from Foreign Controlled Applications Act:

• Mary Reichard sets the stage by explaining that the Supreme Court heard oral arguments lasting two and a half hours, focusing on whether TikTok poses a national security threat due to its Chinese ownership [09:08].
• The law, passed with bipartisan support, mandates TikTok to divest from its parent company, ByteDance, to mitigate foreign government control [09:37].

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Reichard: "It's time now for legal docket. On Friday, oral argument went on for two and a half hours." [09:08]
• Nick Eicher: "At the same time, US Lawmakers say they have been flooded with calls from constituents saying they are worried about losing access if TikTok is shut down." [09:54]

B. Government's Position

Elizabeth Prelogger, the Solicitor General, ardently defends the ban, emphasizing national security concerns:

• She asserts that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) could weaponize TikTok by accessing vast amounts of American user data for espionage and influence operations [11:17].
• Prelogger states, “TikTok collects unprecedented amounts of personal data. That data would be incredibly valuable to the PRC” [11:17].

Notable Quotes:

• Elizabeth Prelogger: "The Chinese government's control of TikTok poses a grave threat to national security." [11:17]
• Prelogger: "This act should not stand." [14:15]

C. TikTok's Defense

TikTok, represented by legal advocates like Geoffrey Fisher and Noel Francisco, counters the government's claims:

• They argue that the ban infringes on First Amendment rights, restricting free speech and the platform’s ability to serve as a cultural hub [12:23].
• Paul Tran emphasizes that the act "directly restricts the First Amendment rights of American creators" and suggests the ban is a pretext for censoring foreign influence [12:54].

Notable Quotes:

• Paul Tran: "It is not what goes into the mouth that defiles a person, but what comes out of the mouth." [09:37]
• Noel Francisco: "The law tries to ban speech under a false veneer of national security." [13:26]

D. Supreme Court's Considerations

The justices probe the legality and implications of the ban:

• Justice Clarence Thomas questions the nature of TikTok's speech, while Chief Justice John Roberts underscores ByteDance's ties to Chinese intelligence [14:33].
• Justice Samuel Alito suggests a possible administrative stay, allowing the incoming Trump administration to negotiate terms post-judgment [19:12].

Notable Quotes:

• Justice Clarence Thomas: "Exactly what is TikTok speech here?" [14:15]
• Justice Alito: "Imagine if you walked into a store and it had a sign that said one of 1 million products in this store causes cancer." [16:38]

E. Global Context

TikTok's issues are not confined to the U.S.:

• Various countries, including Albania, France, Germany, Belgium, and Australia, have enacted restrictions or bans on TikTok, citing similar security and societal concerns [19:12].

Notable Quotes:

• Mary Reichard: "TikTok is not only an American concern." [19:12]

Conclusion on Case: The Supreme Court's decision remains pivotal, with the potential outcomes including upholding the ban, striking it down, or issuing a stay pending further negotiations. The looming January 19 deadline heightens the urgency for a resolution [20:15].

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IV. Economic Trends for 2025

Economist David Bonson provides a comprehensive analysis of anticipated economic trends:

A. US-China Trade Relations

Bonson forecasts a shift towards more cooperative relations between the U.S. and China:

• He predicts that President Trump may leverage China’s weakened economy to secure beneficial deals, potentially influencing the Russia-Ukraine conflict [22:28].
• The proposed Mar-a-Lago Accord aims to negotiate the U.S.-China dollar exchange rate, reminiscent of the Plaza Accord of 1986 [22:28].

Notable Quotes:

• David Bonson: "We are not going to see acrimony and adversarialness, but rather some sort of positive movement." [25:49]
• Bonson: "China certainly has the capability to [end the war in Ukraine]." [25:49]

B. Tax Policy

Bonson discusses the complexities surrounding upcoming tax legislation:

• The budget reconciliation bill process necessitates strategic legislative maneuvers, potentially requiring multiple bills and tethering tax reforms with immigration and border policies [26:00].
• Key Proposals:
  • No Tax on Tips: A politically significant promise that needs to be preserved [26:00].
  • Business Expensing & Depreciation: Potential reinstatement of 100% business expensing and adjustments to the SALT deduction cap [26:00].

Notable Quotes:

• Bonson: "There has to be no tax on tips in there." [26:00]
• Bonson: "Lifting the SALT deduction cap would represent a very significant tax cut to the middle class." [26:00]

C. Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy

Bonson analyzes the Federal Reserve’s stance and future actions:

• Mortgage Rates & Housing Market: Persistent high mortgage rates pose a threat to the housing market, compelling the Fed to consider rate cuts despite conflicting economic indicators [28:53].
• Quantitative Tightening: The Fed continues to reduce its balance sheet, withdrawing liquidity even as it contemplates easing interest rates [28:57].

Notable Quotes:

• Bonson: "The Fed has to unwind a complicated thing next year." [28:57]
• Bonson: "This intellectual and policy incoherence I predict comes to an end in 2025." [31:10]

Summary: Bonson emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to fiscal and monetary policies to navigate the economic landscape of 2025, highlighting the interplay between international relations, domestic tax reforms, and financial regulations.

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V. Stories of Unyielding Bravery

A. 1982 Air Florida Flight 90 Crash

Emma Perley narrates the tragic events and heroic efforts during the Air Florida Flight 90 disaster:

• On January 13, 1982, Flight 90 crashed into the Potomac River amid a severe snowstorm, resulting in 79 fatalities with only six survivors [32:22].
• Arland Williams, a banker and one of the survivors, is posthumously honored for his heroism, although initial reports could not confirm if he was the primary hero [32:43].
• Lenny Skutnik, a bystander, also received recognition for his lifesaving actions [34:55].

Notable Quotes:

• Arland Williams: "And many of those people up on that bridge... nobody could do anything." [34:25]
• Lenny Skutnik: Awarded posthumously alongside Williams for bravery [34:55].

B. 2009 US Airways Flight 1549 ("Miracle on the Hudson")

The episode draws parallels to the acclaimed Miracle on the Hudson, showcasing Captain Chesley Sully Sullenberger’s exemplary leadership:

• On January 15, 2009, Sully successfully landed US Airways Flight 1549 on the Hudson River after a bilateral bird strike incapacitated both engines [36:10].
• The swift and coordinated response saved all 155 passengers, highlighting the critical importance of experienced and well-trained aviation crews [37:48].
• Sully’s testimony before Congress underscores the heroic teamwork that averted disaster [38:35].

Notable Quotes:

• Sully Sullenberger: "This is Cactus 1539. Hit first. We lost two of us on both engines." [36:40]
• Sully: "Brace for impact." [37:30]
• Paul Tran: "We were out there freezing to death." [34:40]
• Sully: “I inspect the plane twice to make sure everyone got out.” [37:39]

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VI. Conclusion

Mary Reichard and Nick Eicher conclude the episode by reflecting on the narratives of bravery intertwined with the complex tapestry of current events. The episode underscores the intersection of national security, economic policies, and human resilience, offering listeners a comprehensive outlook on the challenges and triumphs shaping the world in 2025.

Closing Remarks:

• Mary Reichard: Emphasizes WORLD Radio’s mission of providing "biblically objective journalism" [39:09].
• Paul Tran: Affirms a message of satisfaction and hope [39:41].

Listeners are left with thought-provoking insights on the balance between safeguarding national interests and upholding constitutional freedoms, the ever-evolving economic landscape, and the enduring human spirit in the face of adversity.

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For more detailed analyses and updates, tune into future episodes of The World and Everything In It on Apple Podcasts’ Top 100 News program.

Transcript

[Mary Reichard]

Good morning. Free speech or Trojan horse? The federal government battles TikTok at the Supreme Court.

[Elizabeth Prelogger]

The Chinese government's control of TikTok poses a grave threat to national security. No one disputes that the PRC seeks to undermine US Interests.

[Nick Eicher]

That's ahead on legal docket. And speaking of China, we will talk trade with and tariffs on Beijing. Economist David Bonson with the Monday Money beat and the world history book today, Two Stories of Heroism in the Air.

[Sully Sullenberger]

1529, you want to try to land one three.

[Kent Covington]

We may end up in Hudson.

[Mary Reichard]

It's Monday, January 13th. This is the world and everything in it. From listener supported World Radio. I'm Mary Reichard.

[Nick Eicher]

And I'm Nick Eicher. Good morning.

[Mary Reichard]

Time now for the news with Kent Covington.

[Kent Covington]

Catastrophic wildfires in the Los Angeles area have now killed at least 16 people while causing historic destruction. Louisiana County Sheriff Robert Luna in driving.

[Nick Eicher]

Around some of these areas, they literally look like war zones.

[Paul Tran]

There are down power poles, electric wires. There are still some smoldering fires. It is not safe.

[Kent Covington]

He's urging residents in affected areas not to try and return home before getting the all clear from authorities. 150,000 people in LA county were under evacuation orders as of Sunday. Thousands of firefighters continue to battle the elements as they struggle to rein in the flames. LA County Fire Chief Anthony Maroney elevated.

[Paul Tran]

Critical fire weather conditions will continue through Wednesday. The Los Angeles County Fire Department is prepared. These winds combined with low relative humidities and low fuel moistures will keep the fire threat in Los Angeles county very.

[Kent Covington]

High over the next couple of days. Forecasters expect sustained winds of 50 mph and gusts in the mountains reaching 70 mph. And as the fires continue to burn, many in California and in Washington have questions about the emergency preparedness in Southern California ahead of this disaster. President Elect Trump has been highly critical of environmental policies in the state that he says have diverted water away from Southern California. And Vice President elect J.D. vance said Sunday some of these reservoirs.

[Paul Tran]

Have been dry for 15, 20 years. The fire hydrants are being reported as going dry while the firefighters are trying.

[Nick Eicher]

To put out these fires.

[Kent Covington]

California Governor Gavin Newsom says he has ordered an independent review of why some of those hydrants ran dry. He also said he's hopeful that President elect Trump will not, in his words, politicize the disaster. Louisiana County Supervisor Catherine Barger says she has extended an invitation to the President elect to visit the LA area.

[Paul Tran]

I look forward to welcoming President elect.

[Sully Sullenberger]

Trump to our communities so he can.

[Paul Tran]

See the desperate need but also the incredible opportunity, hope and perseverance of our impacted neighbors.

[Kent Covington]

Some GOP lawmakers say they expect hearings soon in Congress to discuss an aid package for California, but add that they will want answers about the state's preparedness and response. President Elect Trump will take the oath of office one week from today, and he's preparing to sign more than 100 executive orders just as soon as he has sworn in. Securing the border will, of course, be a top priority. And Trump says efforts to deport those who have entered the country illegally will start on day one. And Senator James Lankford of Oklahoma says on that Republicans are united to be.

[Nick Eicher]

Very clear, if someone has violated the law in the United States, there should be consequences for violating the law in the United States.

[Paul Tran]

I'm not going to come out and say, hey, if someone breaks the law.

[Nick Eicher]

We'Re just going to look the other way. That's not who we are.

[Paul Tran]

We are a nation of laws.

[Kent Covington]

Also Among Trump's Day 1 orders, he will likely once again invoke Title 42, which allows the government to rapidly deport migrants at the border over public health concerns. And he intends to move to cut federal funds to so called sanctuary cities that refuse to cooperate with Immigration and Customs Enforcement. And Senate hearings are set to begin this week for Trump's Cabinet picks. Many of those picks have been meeting with senators individually for weeks now. They'll go before the committees overseeing the agencies that Trump wants them to run. Senate Majority Whip John Barrasso says he's rolling up his sleeves.

[Paul Tran]

I've met with just about all of them. I support every one of these nominees as the whip. My job is to make sure they get across the finish line, get on the job, and President Trump deserves a team early.

[Kent Covington]

Some of Trump's nominees could breeze through the confirmation process, but others not so much. Democrats seem largely united against defense secretary nominee Pete Hegseth, Arizona Senator Mark Kelly.

[Paul Tran]

There is not a job that's more.

[Kent Covington]

Serious and more critical to our national security than secretary of defense.

[Paul Tran]

And we need a qualified individual in that job. And he just does not seem to have the qualifications.

[Kent Covington]

Most Republicans say he is, in fact qualified. A hearing on Hegseth nomination is slated to start tomorrow. Among others under the microscope this week include Doug Collins for the Department of Veterans Affairs, Doug Burgum at the Interior Department, and Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio. The president elect's incoming national security adviser, Mike Waltz says Trump is determined to see the war in Ukraine come to an end soon. And he told ABC's this Week that that will mean bringing both Russia and Ukraine to the bargaining table.

[Sully Sullenberger]

Everybody knows that this has to end somehow, diplomatically. I just don't think it's realistic to.

[Nick Eicher]

Say we're going to expel every Russian.

[Sully Sullenberger]

From every inch of Ukrainian soil.

[Kent Covington]

Both sides have signaled a willingness to negotiate, but both with stipulations that could make opening those peace talks in earnest. Challenging gas prices have held steady over the past few weeks, according to industry analyst Trilby Lundberg. Her national survey puts the current cost at $3.14 per gallon on average. But she warns that prices could be on the rise soon after a recent increase in oil prices and the California wildfires.

[Nick Eicher]

The timing is unknowable, but we will also have a surge of demand as.

[Sully Sullenberger]

California attempts its recovery, which may be long, very long and very painful.

[Nick Eicher]

It'll place a heavy demand on all petroleum products as well as pretty much any commodity and equipment.

[Kent Covington]

Lundberg says Houston has the cheapest gas of any major metro area in the country right now, $2.53 per gallon. And Honolulu has the highest pump prices at $4.50. I'm Kent Covington and straight ahead, the Supreme Court hears arguments for, for and against the TikTok ban, plus the Monday money beat with David Bonson. This is the world and everything in it.

[Mary Reichard]

It's the world and everything in it for this 13th day of January 2025. So glad you've joined us today. Good morning. I'm Mary Reichert.

[Nick Eicher]

And I'm Nick Eicher. So does anyone believe the Chinese Communist Party doesn't have the ability to collect personal data from American young people by way of TikTok? The current US ambassador to China believes the CCP very much does. The company that owns TikTok is Chinese, but is not specifically a state owned enterprise. Yet like any Chinese company, it is required to have an in house Communist Party committee that is composed of employees who are party members. Ambassador Nick Burns we make the assumption.

[Paul Tran]

I certainly do as ambassador here, that the Chinese government has ultimate complete authority.

[Kent Covington]

And access to convince a state enterprise here in China or a private company.

[Paul Tran]

To do what they wish them to do. This is an authoritarian government in an authoritarian environment.

[Kent Covington]

So that is an issue.

[Mary Reichard]

Eight content creators on the platform sued the US government to try to stop it from banning TikTok. They say their freedom to enjoy TikTok and leverage it to promote their businesses is as American as apple pie content creator Paul Tran.

[Paul Tran]

It represents the dreams of countless Americans and entrepreneurs who deserve the right to choose how they reach their customers and share our stories. Real American lives. There must be a solution that protects both our national interests and our constitutional rights.

[Mary Reichard]

So last week, all the parties to the dispute came to the right place. The U.S. supreme Court. It's time now for legal docket. On Friday, oral argument went on for two and a half hours. At issue is a new federal law that is a mouthful to say the Protecting Americans from Foreign Controlled Applications Act. It was passed last March with a bipartisan majority and signed into law in April. Frank Pallone is a House Democrat from New Jersey.

[Paul Tran]

The CCP has the ability with TikTok to compromise device security, maliciously access Americans data, promote pro communist propaganda and undermine our nation's interests. This is extremely troubling. Beijing China should not have the control over Americans that TikTok gives them.

[Mary Reichard]

TikTok and the CCP really are the targets. But in addition, it singles out North Korea, Russia and Iran as foreign adversaries of the US and bars using apps those countries control. That includes any app operated by TikTok or its parent company, ByteDance. TikTok connects more than a billion users worldwide, 170 million of them in the U.S. nearly half the population. It's more than just another app. Some call it a cultural phenomenon where social movements like MeToo and Black Lives Matter found traction.

[Nick Eicher]

At the same time, US Lawmakers say they have been flooded with calls from constituents saying they are worried about losing access if TikTok is shut down or forced to sell. But from the perspective of Congress, TikTok could be a 21st century Trojan horse, an app that collects Americans data and secretly twists public opinion. Another surprising twist. President Elect Donald Trump filed an amicus brief that urges the court to block the law, and that would allow him personally to negotiate terms with TikTok and China once he's in office.

[Mary Reichard]

But the current US government says TikTok is so under the thumb of the Chinese Communist Party that TikTok really has no freedom. Listen to Solicitor General Elizabeth Prelogger defend the ban.

[Elizabeth Prelogger]

The Chinese government's control of TikTok poses a grave threat to national security. No one disputes that the PRC seeks to undermine U.S. interests by amassing vast quantities of sensitive data about Americans and by engaging in covert influence operations. Those realities mean that the Chinese government could weaponize TikTok at any time to harm the United States. TikTok collects unprecedented amounts of personal data. That data would be incredibly valuable to the prc. For years, the Chinese government has sought to build detailed profiles about Americans. Where we live and work, who our friends and co workers are, what our interests are, and what our vices are TikTok's immense data set would give the PRC a powerful tool for harassment, recruitment and espionage. The act addresses the threat of foreign adversary control with laser like focus. It requires only divestiture of TikTok to prevent Chinese government control. And that divestiture remedy follows a long tradition of barring foreign control of U.S. communications channels and other other critical infrastructure.

[Nick Eicher]

Prelogger making the national security case not targeting American speech or targeting their cat videos, but rather cutting off a pipeline of sensitive user data that ByteDance then funnels to the Chinese government.

[Mary Reichard]

TikTok, however, insists the ban is overkill. TikTok's lawyers say the act unconstitutionally restricts free speech. Geoffrey Fisher argued for TikTok creators because it's not just the company, but millions of American users whose speech is at stake.

[Paul Tran]

Wholly apart from the company's legal interests here, the act directly restricts the First Amendment rights of American creators to participate and speak. And with a court a little less than a decade ago called the modern public square and the act fails any level of scrutiny under this court's case law, American creators have long and always enjoyed the right to speak in conjunction with foreign speakers or work with foreign publishers. Restricting speech because it might sow doubt about our leaders or undermine democracy are kind of things our enemies do. It is not what we do in this country.

[Mary Reichard]

Noel Francisco is TikTok's lawyer. He argues the law tries to ban speech under a false veneer of national security.

[Paul Tran]

Under the act, one of America's most popular speech platforms will shut down in nine days. The act is content based from beginning to end that singles out a single speaker for uniquely harsh treatment. And it does so because the government fears that China could in the Future indirectly pressure TikTok to disseminate foreign misinformation and propaganda. It is also grossly under inclusive and ignores the most obvious, less restrictive alternative, simply banning TikTok Incorporated from sharing any sensitive user data with anyone. In short, this act should not stand.

[Nick Eicher]

And there you have the core conflict. Is this truly about real time foreign adversary control? Or is it really about punishing and chilling the message of a certain speaker, however much an enemy it is or may become? Justice Clarence Thomas pressed TikTok's lawyer in this exchange.

[Paul Tran]

Exactly what is TikTok speech here? TikTok, your honor, uses an algorithm that in its view reflects the best mix of content. What the act does is it says TikTok cannot do that unless ByteDance executes a qualified divestiture. That's a direct burden on TikTok speech.

[Nick Eicher]

Chief Justice John Roberts followed up, pointing out ByteDance's ties to Chinese intelligence are at the heart of the congressional findings.

[Paul Tran]

You began by saying this is a US Company operating in the United States. Yes, you, Honor. But the ultimate company that controls it, ByteDance was found by Congress, and I quote this to be subject to Chinese laws that require it to assist or cooperate with the Chinese government's intelligence work, quote, and to ensure that the Chinese government has the power to access and control private data that the company holds. So are we supposed to ignore the fact that the ultimate parent is in fact subject to doing intelligence work for the Chinese government? Well, your Honor, I don't think you are supposed to ignore that at all. But I also don't think that it changes the analysis for a couple of reasons.

[Mary Reichard]

But the government paints ByteDance as an extension of the CCP with a nonstop pipeline of data flowing back to China. Justice Neil Gorsuch pressed Prelogger the Solicitor General. He wonders why a disclaimer wouldn't take care of the problem.

[Paul Tran]

Isn't that a pretty paternalistic point of view? I mean, don't we normally assume that the best remedy for problematic speech is counterspeech? And TikTok says it could even live with a disclaimer on its website saying this can be covertly manipulated by China in case anybody were left in doubt after today about that possibility. So you're saying that won't work because.

[Elizabeth Prelogger]

That won't work, because it is such a generic generalized disclosure that it wouldn't put anyone reasonably on notice about when it's actually happening. The example I've been thinking about is.

[Paul Tran]

Argument is that the average American won't be able to figure out that the cat feed feed is getting on TV. TikTok could be manipulated even though there's a disclosure saying it could be manipulated.

[Elizabeth Prelogger]

But imagine if you walked into a store and it had a sign that said one of 1 million products in this store causes cancer. That is not going to put you on notice about what product is actually jeopardizing your health. And I think that's roughly equivalent to the type of disclosure they're contemplating here.

[Mary Reichard]

How the court analyzes this case may be the most important question. Does it review the law under a rational basis analysis giving the government the benefit of the doubt, or does the court give it strict scrutiny, the highest level reserved for when constitutional rights are at stake? If it uses strict scrutiny, the government would have to clear high hurdles. The law must have a compelling reason and achieve its purpose in the least restrictive way.

[Nick Eicher]

Justice Sotomayor Asked whether the government's interest was truly compelling, Francisco replied, even if it were, the government doesn't just get to single out a speaker. Justice Brett Kavanaugh made a reference to the appeals court that sided with the government. And here is Kavanaugh now, squaring off with TikTok lawyer Francisco.

[Paul Tran]

Chief Judge Srinivasan, in his opinion in the D.C. circuit, emphasized that there is a long tradition of preventing foreign ownership or control of media in the United States. Going back radio, television and what have you. I would think, no matter the level of scrutiny, that history has to be important. And I want to get your response to it. I don't actually think it's important in this context because that history all arises in the context of bandwidth scarcity. And in that context you have the government that's in the position of doling out a limited number of licenses. And when you have to dole out a limited number of licenses, you by definition have to pick winners and losers. And when you have to do that, you get a certain amount of discretion. I think that's the whole basis of those cases. You can't really take those cases and extend them to an area where there is no scarcity, like the World Wide.

[Nick Eicher]

Web going on to say that radio and TV over the air uses bandwidth that is finite, whereas the web has no such limit. So those rules wouldn't apply. The hearing was sprinkled with references to national security, free speech, and speculation about what the incoming Trump administration might do different. Differently. The president elect says he wants the deal making power to handle TikTok on his own terms.

[Sully Sullenberger]

You know, I have a warm spot in my heart for TikTok because I won youth by 34 points. And there are those that say that TikTok has something to do with that.

[Mary Reichard]

TikTok is not only an American concern. Multiple countries have restricted or banned it. In Albania, authorities blamed the platform for its part in inspiring someone to stab a 14 year old boy. Last month, France, Germany and Belgium also tightened rules. Australia took a different tack and banned all social media for kids under 16.

[Nick Eicher]

Back in the Supreme Court arguments, a final question is what the court might do if it thinks the law is just too broad. Justice Samuel Alito suggested an administrative stay, basically a pause on enforcement to give the new president or Congress more time. Groups like the American Civil Liberties Union and the Cato Institute side with TikTok warning of censorship. But former intelligence officials, on the other hand, side with the government, saying TikTok could go dark at a critical moment and weaponize disinformation.

[Mary Reichard]

I counted four justices who sounded firmly on the side of the government in favor of banning TikTok, but that's not enough to make a majority. Maybe they'll persuade another justice to join them. Or perhaps they'll take the idea suggested by Justices Alito and Kavanaugh, issue a stay, and give the incoming president a chance to wheel and deal. I expect a fast decision on this one, given the January 19 deadline the law sets out if TikTok hasn't divested from its CCP parent. And that's this week's legal docket.

[Kent Covington]

Additional support comes from Ambassadors Impact Network, inviting entrepreneurs to access faith friendly financing [e-mail] from Dort University student musicians at Dort enjoy opportunities to discover, develop and.

[Nick Eicher]

Share the gift of music and bring.

[Kent Covington]

Glory to God until all is made new.

[Paul Tran]

And from the Issues Etc Podcast Expert.

[Kent Covington]

Guests Expansive topics extolling christ [e-mail].

[Mary Reichard]

Coming up next on the world and everything in it, the mundane money beat.

[Nick Eicher]

Time now to talk business, markets and the economy with financial analyst and advisor David Bonson. David heads up the wealth management firm the Bonson Group. He's here now and good morning, David.

[Sully Sullenberger]

Good morning, Nick. Good to be with you.

[Nick Eicher]

Well, David, as promised, we are going to run through your very extensive white paper on trends you're expecting to see in 2025. Obviously we can't do everything in the time given, but I did manage to narrow down to three areas I think will be of special interest. I'll begin with US China, trade and tariffs on China. What are you looking for in that area?

[Sully Sullenberger]

Well, I do believe that the overall relationship with China, not just the trade component, is a really big issue coming into the administration. And I think it's going to be different than what President Trump faced when he came into office in 2017. The consensus view is more or less some version of, oh, you know, he's going to really come in and there's going to be a lot of hostility with China. He already came in and really got elected in 2016 off of a hawkish view of China that they were an adversary United States in trade. There were unfair trade deals, they were taking advantage of us, they were doing unfair things with their currency. And then the COVID moment happened where of course, a lot of the public sentiment had already moved towards Trump's side of the China discussion. And at that point it became the majority view to view China more adversarially and less as this new 21st century trading partner. And I think that he is coming in right now with a lot of leverage. China's economy is significantly weaker than it was four years ago, let alone eight years ago. And I believe that there is an opportunity for him to actually extract a lot of things from China that are beneficial to US Policy interest that would be more friendly than people believe. President Trump has taken the surprising view that he opposes this ban on TikTok. He invited President Xi to come to the inauguration. There is significant talk in the Treasury Department with the key people, including the treasury secretary nominee Scott Bessant in a Wall Street Journal op ed. This is hardly secret information that he proposed a quote, unquote, Mar a Lago accord, named after the famous Plaza Accord of 1986, where Secretary Baker in the Reagan administration brokered a deal at the Plaza Hotel regarding the US Dollar in relationship to Germany, France and Japan. It was a famous global currency deal. And they're talking about a Mar a Lago accord that would represent some sort of change in the way Chinese and US Dollar exchange rate works. So I am purposely packing in a lot of things quickly because there's a lot that's here and any number of things could go wrong that change what I'm talking about. But by President Trump not picking Bob Lighthizer to be in his administration, I think he's signaling more of an intent to get a deal with China that would be beneficial to the United States on a number of different fronts, potentially even involving China in bringing about an end to the Russia Ukraine war. China certainly has the capability to do that. Their friendliness to Putin is one of the only reasons that that war has gone on for three years. So there's just a lot there geopolitically, economically, monetarily, trade, technology. And that is one of my forecasts for 2025, that we are not going to see acrimony and adversarialness, but rather some sort of positive movement.

[Nick Eicher]

All right, David, with apologies to Ben Franklin, nothing is certain except death in taxes. How about we skip death and go straight to taxes or at least tax policy?

[Sully Sullenberger]

Well, sometimes the talk on taxes leads to talk on death. But yes, this is a big deal in 2025. We've already talked a little bit about the complexity of how it's going to get done. It requires something called a budget reconciliation bill, and then it appears it may even require two of those. There already is right now a debate, Speaker Johnson on one side and Senate Majority Leader John Thune on the other, of how they go about doing it. President Trump, of course, has never Won for details. He is pretty agnostic about how it gets done. All he cares about is that it gets done. But it makes a difference in what gets done and when it gets done. If they have to do two bills versus one. But my view is that the one campaign promise he has to keep politically is the no tax on tips. I think he won't even bring up the no tax on Social Security again. The no tax on overtime wages becomes much trickier. But the one that was really meaningful electorally, evidenced by the results in Clark County, Nevada as a great example and the one he repeated about 10 to 1 compared to the others on the campaign trails, no tax on tips. So I think he has to extend the tax tax cuts that are getting ready to Sunset from 2017. He has to find a way to get no tax on tips in there. They have to find a way to pay for this and all of that can be done. And then I think there's even room for a couple things that are not as big a deal politically but are a far bigger deal economically. If they bring back full 100% business expensing, bonus depreciation, if they get a bigger lift on the salt deduction cap, which is right now set at $10,000, it used to be unlimited. That is just something that I think they have a chance of doing, which would represent a very significant tax cut to the middle class through the back door if they get that done by lifting that cap to 20 or $30,000. So there's a couple little hidden gems out there that could get done. And there's going to be a lot of noise around this, Nick. And that's what the story of 25 is going to be. They're not coming out in February and getting a tax bill done. And if it has to go through a second reconciliation, it really can't get done until the end of the year if it gets wrapped into one big what we are calling an omnibus bill that's going to cover some border, immigration, trade, tax things all at once. April is the earliest and it's very unrealistic. It's probably more like July and it's going to be tricky. But the argument for it is you make people vote for the tax side by connecting it to some of the immigration and border side. All the tax things get more complicated, more wonky and even a little bit more controversial where, like there's just no political room to not support the immigration stuff he wants to do. So by tethering it together, they corner everyone to have to vote for It.

[Nick Eicher]

And finally, David, the Fed and where you see it going?

[Sully Sullenberger]

Well, the mortgage rates are one of the big reasons that the Fed, I think, is cornered into having to cut rates. Even though this school of thought that says, oh, you can't be cutting rates, the economy is doing too well. You know, that was last Friday. There was all this hubbub and you saw the long term bond yields go way higher. The stock market dropped a bunch because of the horrible news that a bunch of new jobs were created in December, far more than expected. And you get back to this thing I sarcastically talk about. When we believe that good news is bad news, there's something wrong. And it stems from the idiotic belief that growth is inflationary and growth is not inflationary and people having jobs is not inflationary. But the Fed right now knows that it's more optics. It looks better to be cutting rates when there's bad economic data than it does when there's good economic data. But the real reason they have to cut rates is they know that the housing market is going to become a major problem. And I don't mean housing prices. I mean that there's nothing that can get done with housing and there's so many jobs connected to housing and there's so much economic activity connected to housing. And so to have the Fed funds rate in the fours and they need to get the mortgage rate down to the fours, that's really the problem. And the mortgage rate is staying up in the sevens. And so that's really where the Fed has to unwind a complicated thing next year. Add to that the jawboning that is certainly going to happen from President Trump if he doesn't feel the Fed's cutting quick enough, which they're going to be going much slower than they originally were intending, then you get a kind of political thing going with it, which is going to complicate it even further. So I expect there'll be a little drama around some of this. But as my white paper at Dividend Cafe talks about, I think the bigger issue, Nick, is going to be not just the Fed rate, but quantitative tightening. They're still tightening on their balance sheet, meaning they're reducing the bonds that they're holding on the balance sheet. They're pulling liquidity out of the financial system even as they're loosening policy with the interest rate. So this intellectual and policy incoherence I predict comes to an end in 2025.

[Nick Eicher]

David Bonson, founder, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bonson Group. You can check out David's [e-mail] if you go there, you can look for that white PA there is a link. It will bring up a nicely designed PDF you can print out and read and get comfortable. It's about 10,000 words so you can plan on about an hour. If you really want to dive into it, it is worth it. David hey, thanks again.

[Sully Sullenberger]

Thanks so much Nick. Great to be with.

[Nick Eicher]

Today is Monday, January 13th. Good morning. This is the WORLD and everything in it from listener supported World Radio. I'm Nick Iker.

[Mary Reichard]

And I'm Mary Reichard. Up next, the world history book today, two plane crashes and several brave heroes who put their lives on the line to save passengers. World's Emma Perley has the story.

[Nick Eicher]

These daring helicopter rescues.

[Paul Tran]

Late this afternoon, about a mile from the White House, air Florida Flight 90 had crashed on takeoff in a blinding snowstorm.

[Nick Eicher]

It hit a bridge crowded with commuter traffic.

[Paul Tran]

It's an eerie scene with helicopter circling above casting a glow on the scene below next to the Potomac River.

[Mary Reichard]

District. Police and medical authorities still can't say whether Arlyn Williams was the hero of the Air Florida crash. What they can say is that Williams.

[Emma Perley]

On The morning of January 13, 1982, a storm in Washington, D.C. pads the roads with six inches of snow. Banker Arland Williams heads to the Washington National Airport for a flight to Florida. It's delayed for a few hours sitting on the tarmac until finally the crew gets the go ahead. The aircraft rolls onto the Runway to wait in a long line of other planes. As the snow falls harder, ice forms along the wings. The pilot and the first officer neglect to turn on the engine's de icing system. Neither of them have much experience flying in snowy conditions. Two other passengers on the flight are Nikki Felch, she's a secretary, and her boss, Joe Stiley, who's a pilot. At 4pm it's finally time for liftoff. Audio here from Mayday Air Disaster.

[Paul Tran]

I got real nervous about halfway down the Runway when we got airborne. Almost instantly it was clear that that aircraft was not flying normally. And I turned to Nikki and I said, we're in real trouble.

[Emma Perley]

The plane starts shaking and losing altitude. Audio here from the last moments before impact, courtesy of the Weather Channel. The plane hits several cars as it scrapes the 14th Street Bridge, then crashes into the Potomac River. From Mayday Air Disaster again with style.

[Paul Tran]

And then we hit the water and that was a real, real impact, much greater than the one with the bridge. And I felt myself blacking out. I thought I was gonna die in.

[Emma Perley]

That airplane that day, the fuselage sinks into the icy water. Of the 79 passengers, only six survive, including Williams, who's tangled in the wreckage. They all cling to the floating tail of the plane.

[Paul Tran]

I looked up and there were probably, it seemed like 10,000 people up on that bridge and along the sides of it looking at us. And we were out there freezing to death. All those people standing up there, nobody could do anything.

[Emma Perley]

A US Park Police helicopter lowers a lifeline down to the survivors to rescue them one by one. Every time the helicopter comes back, Williams passes the life vest to those around him, making sure they get the first chance at rescue. A bystander, Lenny Skutnik, swims out to help one woman who is too weak to hold onto a lifeline. Five of the six passengers return safely to shore and eventually the wreckage submerges Williams underwater where rescuers can't reach him. Later, his cause of death was determined to be drowning. He had no other significant injuries. After the 14th Street Bridge was rebuilt, it was also renamed in his honor. Former President Ronald Reagan gave Skutnik the gold life saving medal for his heroic actions that day, and he awarded the same medal to Williams posthumously. 27 years later, another disaster in the sky and on a river. Chesley Sully Sullenberger is a whip smart captain for US Airways. He previously worked for the US Air Force and has about 20,000 hours of flight experience. Here's Sully in a 2020 interview with.

[Paul Tran]

Inc. January 15, 2009 started just like ten, ten thousand other days, literally.

[Emma Perley]

That day, Sully pilots an Airbus A320 with one hundred and fifty five passengers aboard. The plane takes off from LaGuardia Airport in New York City at 3:30pm And.

[Paul Tran]

Flight 1549, initially, like all those other flights for so long, was completely routine and unremarkable for the first 100 seconds. But this very suddenly, and I was aware of it at the time, became the worst day of my life.

[Emma Perley]

The plane hits a flock of Canada geese. A bird strike and the engines falter. Sully radios the air traffic controllers for an emergency landing. Audio here from the Federal Aviation Administration.

[Paul Tran]

This is Cactus 1539. Hit first. We lost to us on both engines. We're turning back towards LaGuardia.

[Sully Sullenberger]

1529.

[Paul Tran]

We can get it for you. Do you want to try to land?

[Sully Sullenberger]

1-313.

[Paul Tran]

We're able. We may end up in the Hudson.

[Emma Perley]

Even after the 1982 tragedy on the Potomac River, Sully had only discussed theoretical water landings in a classroom. Now, with airport runways too far away, he has no choice. But to head for the Hudson River, Sully and his co pilot Jeff Skiles work quickly as the plane falls through the sky. Sully turns on the PA system.

[Paul Tran]

I said, this is the captain. Brace for impact.

[Emma Perley]

The plane crashes down and then settles into the water. It's still intact.

[Paul Tran]

And in the most amazing coincidence, Jeff and I turned to each other at that moment at the same time using the same words, said, well, that wasn't as bad as I thought.

[Emma Perley]

The crew evacuates passengers through the emergency exits, handing out life vests and deploying an inflatable raft. Water spills into the plane as it slowly sinks into the Hudson. Nearby boats hurry to help the rescue efforts. Sully himself inspects the plane twice to make sure everyone got out. The media dubbed the near fatal crash miracle on the Hudson. And the airplane crew received high awards for their bravery and quick thinking. Sully later testified in a congressional hearing on the accident. From AP News.

[Paul Tran]

I want only to reiterate to the subcommittee that the successful outcome was achieved by the actions of many lives were saved due to the combination of a very experienced, well trained crew, all of whom acted in a remarkable display of teamwork.

[Emma Perley]

That's this week's World History Book. I'm Emma Perley.

[Nick Eicher]

Tomorrow, Canadian Pride Minister Justin Trudeau is out after his Liberal Party picks a new leader in March. But then what happens? We'll tell you and the story of a woman who fell victim to a malicious online attack known as phishing. She spends her days now helping others avoid the mistakes she made. That and more tomorrow. I'm Nick Iger.

[Mary Reichard]

And I'm Mary Reichert. The world and everything in it comes to you from World Radio. World's mission is biblically objective journalism that informs, educates and inspires. The Bible records that Jesus called the people to him and said to them, hear and understand. It is not what goes into the mouth that defiles a person, but what comes out of the mouth this defiles a person. Verses 10 and 11 of Matthew, chapter 15. Go now in grace and peace.

[Paul Tran]

Satisfaction.