7.27.26 Religious discrimination, the 10-year Treasury, and the Andrea Doria collision

Summary

The World and Everything In It – July 27, 2026
Episode Summary: Religious Discrimination, 10-Year Treasury, Andrea Doria Collision

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Overview

This episode of "The World and Everything In It" explores:

• A legal case on religious discrimination at Alaska Airlines
• Analysis of the current state of U.S. long-term interest rates and tariffs
• The 70th anniversary of the Andrea Doria maritime disaster

The episode delivers a mix of legal, economic, and historical reporting, featuring interviews with key voices and expert analysis, while maintaining a thoughtful and accessible tone.

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1. Religious Discrimination at Alaska Airlines

[05:37 – 17:48]

Main Theme

A deep dive into the ongoing legal controversy involving Alaska Airlines and two Christian flight attendants, focusing on competing claims of religious freedom and workplace anti-discrimination policies.

Background

• In 2021, Alaska Airlines invited employee comments on the Equality Act, a civil rights bill that would expand protections for sexual orientation and gender identity.
• Two Christian flight attendants, Lacey Smith and Marley Brown, expressed concerns rooted in their faith-based beliefs.
• Both were fired for their comments and subsequently sued the airline and their union, claiming religious discrimination.

Key Points & Insights

• Nature of the Comments

  • Smith asked: “Do you think it's possible to regulate morality?” [06:25]
    • Explained her Christian convictions and concerns about laws impacting biblical morality [08:24]
  • Brown warned the Equality Act could threaten religious freedom and women's safety, raising potential for abuse of public accommodations [09:24]
  • Alaska Airlines deemed Brown’s post as equating LGBTQ individuals with sexual predators, removing both comments and starting disciplinary proceedings [09:51]

• Legal Arguments and Developments

  • Under Title VII, employers may not discriminate against employees for religion, but may discipline for genuine harassment, even if religiously motivated [10:34]
  • The question: did Alaska enforce neutral workplace rules or use them as a “cover” for religious hostility? [10:58]
  • A federal district court initially sided with Alaska; the 9th Circuit reversed, finding enough evidence for a jury trial [12:17]
    • Internal airline communications revealed possible religious bias (e.g., “Employees actually do not have the right to believe that LGBTQ rights are immoral.”) [12:37]
    • Union officials also made hostile remarks (“can someone please shut down comments or put Marley and Lacey in a burlap bag and drop them down a well.”) [13:54]

• Differentiation of the Plaintiffs' Cases

  • Brown’s comments were explicitly religious; she had a clean disciplinary record [15:17]
  • Smith’s question was less overtly religious and initially explained as “philosophical.” She had prior discipline over workplace disputes [15:17-15:42]
  • Both were fired the same day, and the majority opinion suggests the firings were not evaluated “in a vacuum.” [15:42]

• Key Quotes

  • Lacey Smith, on her firing:

    “I don't think anybody expects to get fired for writing a comment which was encouraged on a post that Alaska themselves brought to their employees. So I think the termination definitely felt incredibly extreme.” — Lacey Smith [10:23]

  • Stephanie Taub, First Liberty Institute:

    “Can someone please shut down comments or put Marley and Lacey in a burlap bag and drop them down a well. So if that's not evidence of anti-religious hostility, I don't know what is.” [13:54]

  • On her litigation journey, Smith reflects:

    “You know, they say rejoice whenever you face persecution of any kind... there’s a lot of just rejoicing for the fact that I’m standing up for my faith in God and in this nation.” — Lacey Smith [16:57]

• Personal Impact

  • Smith left aviation work; Brown lost a decade of seniority by moving to another airline [16:40]

Memorable Moments

• The episode carefully contextualizes the tension between “inclusion” and religious liberty, highlighting both the legal uncertainty and the deep personal toll for all involved.

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2. The Monday Money Beat: 10-Year Treasury & Tariffs

[18:57 – 29:58]

Main Theme

David Bonson, financial analyst, discusses the significance of the 10-year Treasury yield, recent legal changes to tariffs, and the current state of jobless claims.

Key Points & Insights

• 10-Year Treasury Yield at 4.7%: What Does It Mean?

  • The 10-year yield is a crucial economic signal, reflecting both inflation and real growth expectations [19:50]
  • Secretary of the Treasury called it a “barometer for affordability,” but Bonson argues it’s not enough to look at yield alone — context around growth and inflation matters.

    “It is the thing I consider to be the most important measurement... However, it’s a barometer of two things ... inflation expectations and real growth.” — David Bonson [19:50]

  • A high yield could be good or bad, depending on what’s driving it (inflation or growth) [19:50–22:50]

• Tariff Environment Post-Supreme Court Ruling

  • Supreme Court struck down $120B of tariffs; the administration has rebuilt about $62B via other legal routes [25:26]
  • Tariffs are seen as a burden on the U.S. economy and create unpredictability for both businesses and international partners.

    “It is a literal cost to the U.S. economy... it adds to the instability and erratic nature of policy.” — David Bonson [25:26]

• Job Market and Unemployment Claims

  • Low initial claims (187,000) signal labor market resilience, though Bonson cautions against reading too much into one week’s data [28:10]

    “What I can safely say is that it has not gotten a lot worse from the precarious position it started the year and that's a good thing. But I don't think it's gotten a lot better either.” — David Bonson [28:10]

Timestamps

• 10-Year Yield context and analysis: [19:50–23:10]
• Tariff conversation: [24:50–27:39]
• Labor market/jobless claims: [27:39–29:44]

Memorable Moments

• Bonson’s breakdown of why hoping for lower yields can sometimes signal worse economic conditions is particularly instructive.

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3. The Andrea Doria Collision – History Book

[30:22 – 37:03]

Main Theme

A historical recount of the Andrea Doria maritime disaster of 1956, highlighting lessons from the tragedy and the “greatest peacetime rescue in maritime history.”

Key Points & Insights

• Events Leading Up to the Collision

  • Andrea Doria, a luxury Italian liner, and Stockholm, a Swedish ship, both using then state-of-the-art radar, collided near Nantucket [30:46–31:27]
  • Discrepancy in testimony: Andrea Doria reported proceeding in fog; Stockholm claimed clear visibility [31:39]
  • Radar technology, while advanced for its time, had limitations (lack of backlight, required manual plotting) [31:59–32:26]

• The Collision and Aftermath

  • Stockholm’s reinforced bow tore into Andrea Doria, causing a severe list and disabling half the lifeboats [33:14–34:13]

    “Lifeboats can only be launched if there’s a 15 degree list. So that meant that all the port lifeboats could not be used, half of the ship's lifeboats rendered useless.” — Captain George Sandberg [34:13]

  • Massive rescue response: More than 1,200 survivors rescued by other ships, including the French liner Ile de France [34:33–34:57]
  • 51 lives lost out of 1,700 on board; the episode underscores the remarkable scale of survival [35:16]

• Investigation and Legacy

  • Both shipping lines settled out of court, accepting equal blame
  • Later analysis suggested radar misinterpretation (Stockholm’s device possibly set to the wrong scale) [36:08]

    “Assuming the Stockholm's radar was on the wrong scale was the only way the collision happened.” — Captain George Sandberg [36:08]

  • Andrea Doria remains at the bottom of the ocean, its story now a blend of human tragedy and heroic rescue [36:23]

Notable Quotes

• “It really is a miracle that so many people survived.” — Captain George Sandberg [35:16]
• “While technology may have failed... it’s the monumental human efforts that ensure the Andrea Doria is remembered not just for the lives that were lost, but for the ones that were saved, too.” — Kristin Flavin [36:27]

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Notable Quotes & Moments (with Timestamps)

• Legal Docket:

  • Lacey Smith on termination: "I think the termination definitely felt incredibly extreme." [10:23]
  • Stephanie Taub on union texts: "Can someone please shut down comments or put Marley and Lacey in a burlap bag and drop them down a well?" [13:54]
  • Smith on faith: "I've lost friends over this process. If it did anything for me, it helped my roots grow deeper. And yeah, for that I'm thankful." [16:57]

• Money Beat:

  • David Bonson: “The 10-year bond yield is the most important metric in all of economics.” [19:50]
  • On tariffs: “...it adds to the instability and erratic nature of policy, the unpredictability.” [25:26]

• History Book:

  • Captain Sandberg on survival: “It really is a miracle that so many people survived.” [35:16]
  • On radar misinterpretation: “In order if we used [the Stockholm's] testimony alone, Andrea Doria would have had to make a sharp turn and increase speed to over 200 knots, which he could not do.” [35:55]

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Segment Timestamps

• Religious discrimination/Legal Docket: [05:37 – 17:48]
• Economic analysis/Monday Money Beat: [18:57 – 29:58]
• Andrea Doria collision/World History Book: [30:22 – 37:03]

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This episode thoughtfully blends current legal, business, and historical reporting. It challenges listeners to consider the complex intersections of faith and policy, economics and politics, and human error and heroism.

Transcript

[Mary Reichert]

Good morning. Today on legal docket, Alaska Airlines asked employees what they thought of the company's support for a controversial bill. Two flight attendants answered and the airline fired them.

[Stephanie Taub]

Can someone please shut down comments or put Marley and Lacey in a burlap bag?

[Nick Eicher]

Now Marley and Lacey want a jury to rule on religious discrimination. Also today, the Monday Money beat. David Bonson is standing by. And later, the world history book.

[Captain George Sandberg]

The actions that took place were complicated today.

[Nick Eicher]

The collision that sank the Andrea Doria.

[Mary Reichert]

It's Monday, July 27th. This is the world and everything in it from listener supported World Radio. I'm Mary Reichert.

[Nick Eicher]

And I'm Nick Einker.

[Kent Covington]

Good morning.

[Mary Reichert]

Now the news. Here's Kent Covington.

[Kent Covington]

The US Military stopped bombing Iran Thursday night, halting roughly two weeks of nightly airstrikes. U.S. ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said President Trump is giving peace talks a little breathing room.

[David Bonson]

We've had both Iman and Iran and a number of our other negotiators engaged

[Nick Eicher]

at every level, from the most senior

[David Bonson]

levels all the way down to the technical level over the past few weeks and particularly in the past few days.

[Kent Covington]

And Iran has stopped firing missiles at American forces, but it is still going after ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran's Revolutionary Guard says it fired warning shots at several vessels in the Strait over the weekend. Attacks on shipping started the latest US Bombing campaign. Iranian drones and missiles later killed three American soldiers at an airbase in Jordan. And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu voiced his support once more for keeping the pressure on Tehran when this regime is

[Captain George Sandberg]

either toppled or it's sufficiently weakened that it knows it has to end its nuclear program and has to change its course. That's really what President Trump is trying to achieve and I back his fully.

[Kent Covington]

And the prime minister is on a plane to Washington today. He told Israeli leaders at a Sunday Cabinet meeting that he will be meeting with President Trump at the White House tomorrow, where the Iran war will top the agenda. Afterwards, he'll take part in the funeral of the late Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, someone the prime minister called a big friend of Israel. Graham's body lies in state at the Capitol tomorrow ahead of a service at Washington National Cathedral. South Carolina services follow on Wednesday. Millions of Americans are still enduring a brutal heat wave today. Forecasters say that in parts of Iowa and Nebraska, it could feel like 115 degrees or even hotter. But the heat reaches much farther. Bob Borovec of the National Weather Service said Sunday the heat that is affecting

[David Bonson]

large parts of the country, from the western US into the middle part of the country from the Canadian border all

[Benjamin Eicher]

the way down to the Gulf coast

[David Bonson]

is affecting about 130 million people. These are people that are under either an extreme heat warning or a heat advisory.

[Kent Covington]

Those alerts are still up this morning. A heat dome is driving it. High pressure parked overhead like a lid. Forecasters say it slides south and east this week toward Memphis and the Gulf Coast. Orvik says storms should bring some relief by midweek, but the pattern holds through the end of the month. German police say the suspect in a deadly attack on an LGBT parade in Berlin was an Islamic extremist. World's Benjamin Eicher reports Officers tracked down

[Benjamin Eicher]

21 year old Abdul Balut Sunday evening in a Berlin suburb. Police say he ran at them with a sharp object, at which time they shot and killed him. Investigators say Balut drove a van into a crowd in a park near Brandenburg Gate Saturday night and then stabbed people with a machete. One woman was killed, 29 others were hurt. Balut was born in Germany. He traveled to Lebanon last year trying to join ISIS in Syria. A Berlin court convicted him in May of spreading ISIS propaganda and plotting an attack. But the court suspended his sentence, stopped citing time already served. For WORLD I'm Benjamin Eicher.

[Kent Covington]

At the weekend box office, the Odyssey continues to rake in the big bucks.

[Nick Eicher]

Tell me what you remember.

[Captain George Sandberg]

A wife, A son.

[Kent Covington]

Christopher Nolan's latest epic earned another $87 million domestically. Among R rated movies, only Marvel's Deadpool and Wolverine made more money in its second weekend worldwide. The Odyssey has now hauled in $640 million in roughly 10 days, lagging far behind over the weekend, Disney's live action remake of Moana, Toy Story 5 and Minions and Monsters each took in roughly another $10 million. I'm Kent Covington. And straight ahead, a religious discrimination case involving involving Alaska Airlines and later the world history book. This is the world and everything in it.

[Nick Eicher]

It's the world and everything in it for July 27, 2026. We are so glad you've joined us today. Good morning. I'm Nick Iker.

[Mary Reichert]

And I'm Mary Reichard. Time now for legal docket. Congress considered a controversial civil rights bill five years ago titled the Equality Act. It was a measure that would likely affect relations between businesses and the public. And Alaska Airlines invited employees to comment on it. Two Christian flight attendants offered theirs and the airline fired them both.

[Nick Eicher]

Well, now, five years later, a federal appeals court says a jury may decide whether Alaska acted improperly, using its own rules as a cover for religious discrimination, or whether they were merely enforcing neutral workplace rules. Marlee Brown is one of the fired flight attendants.

[Mary Reichert]

Lacey Smith is the other.

[Lacey Smith]

And so my question was, as a company, do you think it's possible to regulate morality? And that's the question that got me terminated.

[Mary Reichert]

The appeals court has not decided that Alaska discriminated. It just decided the evidence is disputed enough that a jury should hear the case.

[Nick Eicher]

Now, to understand how the dispute began, it's helpful to remember how unsettled was the summer of 2020 in the US the country was living through COVID lockdowns, nationwide unrest after the death of George Floyd, and a bitter presidential campaign. Employers were rapidly adopting diversity, equity, and inclusion programs and were finding out that disagreement over sexuality and gender could carry professional consequences. In the middle of all of that, the Supreme Court ruled in a case called Bostock vs Clayton County.

[Mary Reichert]

By a vote of 6 to 3, the court held that Title VII's prohibition on workplace sex discrimination also covers sexual orientation and gender identity. Title VII already protects employees from religious discrimination, so Bostock placed those protections alongside one another in federal employment law without resolving every conflict that might arise between them.

[Nick Eicher]

The following year was when Congress took up the Equality Act. The bill would have expanded federal civil rights protections involving sexual orientation and gender identity across employment, public accommodations and other areas. As a company, Alaska Airlines took a position in favor of the bill, but also solicited employee comment to a point.

[Mary Reichert]

Alaska held that only what it considered civil and respectful comments would be tolerated and ruled out of bounds what it regarded as harassment and discrimination. Smith had worked as an Alaska flight attendant for six years. She posted the question we heard a moment ago.

[Lacey Smith]

Do you think it's possible to regulate morality?

[Mary Reichert]

I asked Smith what was behind the question.

[Lacey Smith]

God tells us that he created us, male and female, and he created us and told us to populate the earth, giving us guidelines in terms of law and what he's expecting from us. So as a Christian, that's one of the things where if you believe in the inerrancy of the Bible, which I do, and if you believe that God's commands are true and that the Bible is relevant, which I do, then those are things that you have to adhere to laws. First, give us a mirror. They tell us kind of what's wrong or right. And then secondly, they try and punish evil and reward good. And the third thing they do for us is allow us to know what God thinks is good and to strive for living that life towards what he thinks is good. And so I take legislation, I guess, a little bit more seriously on My faith in terms of what we're allowing into our legislation or not. Because whether we like it or not, legislation often regulates morality. And so, for me, if Alaska's in support of something that's going against my own biblical belief and faith and the inerrancy of God's word, that's when I have a concern about it.

[Mary Reichert]

The other flight attendant, Marley Brown, posted later that day. Her comment was much longer and expressly religious. She said the Equality act threatened the church religious freedom and conscience protections. She also argued that its provisions could diminish the privacy and safety of women and girls. And she warned, and here's the key. That sexual predators could exploit rules allowing access to private spaces designated for the opposite sex.

[Nick Eicher]

Alaska said that Brown, by saying that, had equated LGBTQ people with sexual predators, defining her post hateful and discriminatory. At that point, Alaska removed both women's comments and opened disciplinary investigations against them.

[Mary Reichert]

Now, Smith and Brown are both Christians. Both were also members of the association of Flight Attendants, the labor union that was supposed to represent them. Alaska ultimately fired both women the same day. Smith says she was stunned.

[Lacey Smith]

Yeah, I don't think anybody expects to get fired for writing a comment which was encouraged on a post that Alaska themselves brought to their employees. So I think the termination definitely felt incredibly extreme.

[Nick Eicher]

Unfortunately, Title VII of the Civil Rights act prohibits employers from discriminating against employees based on religion. It also applies to labor unions, but religious belief does not give an employee immunity from neutral workplace rules. An employer may discipline employees for genuine harassment or discrimination, even when religiously motivated.

[Mary Reichert]

The question here is whether Alaska applied its policies neutrally or. Or use them to punish beliefs the company opposed. I contacted Alaska Airlines and the union for comment, but I didn't hear back in time for the story. I'll update you if I do receive a response.

[Nick Eicher]

Before bringing a federal employment discrimination lawsuit, workers ordinarily must first pursue an administrative claim. Smith and Brown did that. Then they sued both the airline and their union. Stephanie Taub is senior counsel at First Liberty Institute, which represents the women.

[Stephanie Taub]

Normally, you have to go through the EEOC or another state agency first, and so it takes some time to go through the state agency before you can bring a lawsuit. And then you file a lawsuit in the district court, and you go through the process of gathering evidence. So that takes more time, too. And then what happened here is the district court filed an opinion saying that we weren't able to go to trial because the district court thought that we didn't have enough evidence of religious discrimination. But we do have good news because the 9th Circuit just recently overturned that decision and laid out all of the evidence that we presented, which we believe is overwhelming evidence of religious discrimination. And they agreed with us. We had enough evidence of religious discrimination to go to trial against the airline and against the union.

[Mary Reichert]

More precisely, the appeals court held there was enough evidence for the claims to continue, not necessarily that discrimination occurred. The ruling was that the evidence in dispute should not have been resolved by a judge without a trial. And much of the evidence came from internal airline and union communications obtained in the discovery process.

[Nick Eicher]

As Alaska prepared its public response to Smith's morality question, a lawyer in the airline's legal department wrote this. Employees actually do not have the right to believe that LGBTQ rights are immoral. He placed quotation marks around the word immoral. Alaska's vice president of in flight operations replied, I 100% agree. The appeals court said jury could consider that exchange as possible evidence of religious hostility.

[Mary Reichert]

Taub also points to the language Alaska used when discussing the word inclusion.

[Stephanie Taub]

Yeah, they repeated that phrase over and over and over again. There's only a few categories that are protected in federal law, and they omitted one. They omitted religion. And so this is absolutely telling.

[Mary Reichert]

The union's internal messages were even more blunt. One union official called Smith's comment reprehensible and wrote that employees could be bigots in their private lives, but not at work.

[Nick Eicher]

The union president repeatedly contacted Alaska management about the women's comments. In one message, he complained that too many people struggle to reconcile their faith with inclusion. And one of Brown's own union representatives sent a message to other union officials.

[Stephanie Taub]

As Taub describes Marley's union representative, she texted to other union representatives, can someone please shut down comments or put Marley and Lacey in a burlap bag and drop them down a well. So if that's not evidence of anti religious hostility, I don't know what is.

[Mary Reichert]

That union official later represented Brown during Alaska's investigation. The union filed grievances after the firings, but it declined to take either woman's case to arbitration. Smith says she felt abandoned by the people who were supposed to be representing her.

[Lacey Smith]

I had a union person who basically said that they didn't think that I was going to get represented in arbitration early on. And what's interesting about that is she's been doing it long enough that she just knows. Yet when it came to my defense in any of the grievance process, she never said one word. So somebody who's incredibly skilled at defending and knowing just what's Happening had not one word to say on my behalf to Alaska Airlines.

[Nick Eicher]

The federal district court ruled for Alaska and the union without a trial. But Last month, a three judge panel of the Ninth Circuit, voting 2 to 1, reversed. The majority treated the two women's claims somewhat differently, holding Brown's comment was explicitly religious and Alaska and the union plainly understood that. And the panel noted that Brown had also worked at the airline for eight years with no prior discipline.

[Mary Reichert]

Smith's case is more complicated. Her brief question on regulating morality did not mention religion. And when Alaska interviewed her, Smith described her question as philosophical. She did not expressly claim religious discrimination until after the company fired her. Unlike Brown, Smith did have a previous disciplinary record arising from a workplace dispute over Alaska's support for the Black Lives Matter movement.

[Nick Eicher]

Even so, the majority said Alaska did not evaluate Smith's case in a vacuum. Company and union officials discussed the two women together. Brown's investigation included extensive discussion of religious objections and occurred before Smith's. Yet. Yet both were fired the same day. From that evidence, the majority said a jury could conclude that Alaska understood the religious context of Smith's question and used its neutral policies as a cover.

[Mary Reichert]

The dissenting judge in the case said the company would have had to be clairvoyant to know Smith was making a religious claim. She concluded an employer cannot discriminate against an employee because of a religious meaning the employer was unaware of. And that sort of disagreement might illustrate the difficult Smith could face before a jury. Did Alaska fire the women for violating neutral rules? Or did the company and union officials treat their Christian convictions as evidence of harassment?

[Nick Eicher]

The five year legal battle has already carried significant personal costs. Smith moved across the country and became a stay at home mother. Brown found work at another airline. But at the cost of a decade of seniority.

[Mary Reichert]

I asked Smith why she's continued with the litigation.

[Lacey Smith]

As a Christian, you know that you're not expected a golden road to walk down. And so, you know, they say rejoice whenever you face persecution of any kind. So not that rejoicing comes easily, but I think that that's when you have a lot of spiritual growth that comes to it. And so, you know, in this process, there's a lot of just rejoicing for the fact that I'm standing on solid ground in terms of I'm standing up for my faith in God and in this nation. To be able to worship God without fear is a big deal. And by terminating people of faith, it makes you not be able to stand up for your faith without fear. You fear losing your job. You fear providing for your family. You fear the repercussions that are going to happen. People speaking against you. I've lost friends over this process. If it did anything for me, it helped my roots grow deeper. And yeah, for that I'm thankful.

[Mary Reichert]

The case is Brown vs Alaska Airlines, Inc. And is currently pending for trial in Washington State. And that's this week's legal docket.

[Kent Covington]

Additional support comes from Cedarville University where academic excellence and biblical faithfulness. Meet cedarville. Edu World from Equip by unbound launching high schoolers through coaching, skills training and interest led projects. More at beunbound US World and from World Watch, a 10 minute video news broadcast that the whole family can agree on free for the first seven days. Worldwatch News podcast.

[Mary Reichert]

Coming up next on the world and everything in it, the Monday Money Beat.

[Nick Eicher]

Time now to talk business markets and the economy with financial analyst and advisor David Bonson. David heads up the wealth management firm the Bonson Group and he is here now. David, good morning.

[David Bonson]

Well, good morning, Nick. Good to be with you.

[Nick Eicher]

Well, David, let's talk long term interest rates. The New York Times reports the Yield on the 10 year treasury has climbed up to 4.7% and that's the highest point of President Trump's second term. The paper points to a couple of different causes, possible causes, the Iran war and the resulting higher oil prices, heavier government borrowing. Treasury Secretary Scott Besant has called this the 10 year yield, a barometer for the administration's success on affordability. Is that the right measure, David? And by that measure, how do you think the administration is doing? Is it gaining or losing ground?

[David Bonson]

Well, I want to do a little explanation for listeners that I think is going to be very helpful here this morning to give us a level reset on how all this works. The 10 year bond yield is the most important metric in all of economics. It is the thing that I consider to be the most important measurement. It's the most liquid instrument. It is deeply held. It is global. It is risk free. So it is purely measuring interest rates and economic growth expectations devoid of other credit risk and currency considerations. So it's pretty well isolated. However, it's a barometer of two things and that's where I think the Secretary may have missed the mark in his comment, because nominal GDP growth is more or less the expectations of nominal GDP growth is more or less going to be measured in a 10 year bond yield. However, nominal GDP growth means two things, inflation expectations and real growth. So I'm making up a number here. But if we had a 5% 10 year with 1% inflation, meaning 4% real growth expectations, wouldn't everyone consider that a wonderful thing? That's the barometer you love. And then inversely, if we had a 2% 10 year because we had only 1% inflation expectation but only 1% real growth, would anybody think that's a good thing? So I believe that the ten year measures two things. One of them is bad and one of them is good. And you have to capture both. And to the extent the tenure goes higher, and this is the essence of your question, is Secretary Besant failing by his own measurement because the tenure's going higher in concert with higher price expectations? That would be a negative. However, if the 10 year was at 4.6 or 4.7 where it is now and inflation was down at 2%, I'd be thrilled for 2.7% real growth. We've been getting 1.5% to 2% for a long time. So I just don't think the 10 year bond yield without more information about growth and inflation is enough. And I think that that is where the press has to understand this. The administration certainly does understand it. But when sometimes people are saying, oh, I really hope the 10 year goes down to 3%, 3.5%, if what they mean is it's because I hope inflation drops, I get it. But people have to understand you're not getting a 10 year with a three in front of it unless we have really bad economic growth. And that's not what any of us want. So hoping for a bond yield that misprices things or is indicating bad economic growth, that's not something anyone should be rooting for. The sweet spot has been around 4. The problem with our 4 is that it's become more 2 and a half to 3. Inflation, 1 and a half or so growth, I want to reverse that. I want inflation below 2 and growth above 2.

[Nick Eicher]

So how does the bond market separate those two, David? And when it looks 10 years out, how much weight does it put on a temporary oil price shock instead of persistent expectations of inflation?

[David Bonson]

No. Well, Secretary Rubin during the Clinton administration did something brilliant and they created something called tips. Treasury inflation protected securities that investors can buy that are sold all over the world. There's trillions of dollars of our government's debt is actually a lower yield. But then it attaches to it the inflation rate. So it gives investors the protection from inflation. So you can isolate what the expectations for inflation are. That includes food and energy. But the reason we strip when you're talking about Core versus headline. The reason we strip it out month over month and quarter over quarter is because of the volatility. But over 10 and it's expected it's going to be lumpy along the way. But the 10 year level is the 10 year level. And this notion that bond yields go higher because this week oil prices were higher and next week they're lower. It's ridiculous. The 10 year is going higher because of structural expectations. Goods inflation was at 0% when President Trump took office and it's now 1.7%. That's meaningfully moved higher because we always have higher services, inflation shelter and other things that fit in there. But goods inflation has come way up and I believe tariffs are the reason for that.

[Nick Eicher]

Well, let's talk about that, David, talk about tariffs. You had said all along that if the courts had struck down the administration's early tariff program, that the White House had other legal authorities up their sleeves as a backup plan. So now that's exactly what's happened. The Supreme Court struck down the original tariff regime. The administration has begun rebuilding tariffs through other provisions of law. So what is the new economic environment now? Did the court materially reduce the tariff burden or has the White House largely been able to restore it by another route?

[David Bonson]

Oh, I think that the Supreme Court did the administration a huge favorite by striking down about $120 billion of tariffs. And the administration has done themselves a huge disservice by bringing back what was about 50 billion. And then now this week they're going to get another 12 billion back in through the back door for six months. And it's bad for two reasons. First of all, it's just the cost of it. It is a literal cost to the US Economy that American import businesses pay at a time when small business does not need this tax, at when the economy does not need this burden. However, it's really a problem too, Nick, because it adds to the instability and erratic nature of policy, the unpredictability. I saw some comments from Australia this week just saying what in the world is going on. They haven't done anything to agitate and they thought they had a deal and then now they're caught into some new tariffs on this stuff. And I think that that's a really big problem, not only for our counterparties in other countries, but for American businesses themselves. When you just kind of don't know what to expect. It's hard to make hiring plans. It's very hard to make Capex plans to put a shovel in the ground when these things are Changing the way they are. Look, the administration could change their mind next week. Coffee prices were getting high and they go, okay, never mind. And home appliances were getting high and they said, never mind. Everyone talks about how mad they are about housing prices, but no one seems to want to take away tariffs on lumber, which is just absurd that we're tariffing wood. So I just, I really wish that the administration would take the gift because it would be a real blessing to the economy to have these things removed. They're still lower and substantially lower than they were a year ago because of the Supreme Court's ruling. But yes, as you say, what the administration did this week is formally announced their ways to try to work around it. And it's good for at least six months.

[Nick Eicher]

All right. Well, finally, jobs, David. The Wall Street Journal reports initial jobless claims below 200,000 down to 187,000. That's quite a bit below expectations. They have now declined six straight weeks. So how much signal is in those numbers and more broadly, does what you have talked about for months, the market that's a low hire, low fire jobs market, does that describe a sturdy labor market or one that has just kind of stalled out?

[David Bonson]

The job market feels reasonably sturdy and the weekly jobless claims are the best measurement of that. I don't want to put too much credence in the 187,000 because as I've been saying now for so many years with you, which is kind of fun to be able to say that we've been talking about this as many years as we've been doing this together. But you really need like 2, 3, 4 week averages because you get lumpy data. You get a spike of something that sometimes can be double reporting or you get states that missed reporting. You get seasonal factors and three week averages are low and they're very healthy. And the weekly unemployment claims have been low and healthy for years. So there's a lot of consistency there. But going from around 210 to 220,000 a week to all of a sudden 187, that's not going to hold. This week was an anomaly, but we'll see how those average out. My only concern, I want to get the BLS number in August for the month of July and see what revisions were for May and June because the last monthly number was not very good and the last monthly number was even worse with revisions to the past couple months. So we're in a kind of summer seasonal watch moment. On the labor data. What I can safely say is that it has not gotten a lot worse from the precarious position it started the year and that's a good thing. But I don't think it's gotten a lot better either. We're just in this mode where there doesn't appear to be a lot of hiring, but thank God there doesn't appear to be a lot of firing.

[Kent Covington]

All right.

[Nick Eicher]

Alright. Well, David Bonson is founder, managing partner and chief investment officer of the Bonson Group. He [e-mail] each week and also occasionally at World Opinions. David, have a great week. We'll see you next time.

[David Bonson]

Thanks so much, Nick.

[Mary Reichert]

Good morning. This is the world and everything in it from Listener supported World Radio. I'm Mary Reichard.

[Nick Eicher]

And I'm Nick Eicher. Coming next, a maritime disaster. Seventy years ago, the luxury ocean liner the SS Andrea Doria set sail on its 101st voyage from Genoa, Italy, back bound for New York City. Aboard were passengers of many different walks of life. Some of them immigrants seeking opportunity, others wealthy Hollywood elites on vacation.

[Mary Reichert]

But late on the night of July 25, 1956, the Andrea Doria would find itself on a collision course off the coast of Nantucket. World's Kristin Flavin has the story.

[Kristin Flavin]

As the Andrea Doria closed in on New York, another ship was leaving. The Ms. Stockholm, a Swedish ocean liner with a reinforced bow needed to safely navigate its icy North Atlantic routes. Both the Andrea Doria and the Stockholm were equipped with state of the art technologyradar. They shouldn't have been able to surprise each other. Yet what exactly transpired that night is still debated. How did the two vessels see each other and still collide?

[Captain George Sandberg]

The the actions that took place really were very complicated.

[Kristin Flavin]

Captain George Sandberg is a professor emeritus with the U.S. merchant Marines. He's studied this case for years.

[Captain George Sandberg]

The Andrea Doria was proceeding in fog as their testimony and Stockholm, which was outbound, testified that they had clear visibility. So there was a discrepancy right off the bat.

[Kristin Flavin]

The Andrea Doria was considered one of the fastest and safest of all of Italy's ships. The builders still had the sinking of the Titanic in mind and specifically designed the ship with watertight compartments and 16 lifeboats, enough for every passenger aboard. The goal was to never need the lifeboats with radar. The crews would have incredible visibility. But the screens lacked backlight, a dangerous flaw.

[Captain George Sandberg]

What had to be done in those days was taking ranging bearings on the radar and actually plotted on a separate maneuvering sheet and take a series of positions and determine the course and speed and the closest point of approach of the other ship.

[Kristin Flavin]

Whether the officer on duty aboard the Stockholm was doing that is unclear. The Stockholm reported clear conditions, but the Andrea Doria encountered a fog bank off the coast. Her captain slightly reduced speed on the radar screens. The two ships noticed each other. The rule of the road is for each ship to pass on the port side. So the Andrea Doria turned hard to the left. The Stockholm veered right. The radar failure would cost lives.

[Captain George Sandberg]

When the bow of the Stockholm penetrated the Andrea Doria, of course there was a forward momentum.

[Kristin Flavin]

John Moyer is a professional diver who has gone to the wreck more than a hundred times. He says the force of the impact from the Stockholm's reinforced bow ripped into the side of the Andrea Doria. The resulting internal damage is what ultimately sank the ship. Within two minutes, the Andrea Doria developed a severe 18 degree list.

[Captain George Sandberg]

The staircases were tilted and the hallways were all tilted. So, yeah, they all had trouble getting out from below decks up to the top deck where they had to evacuate. I've spoken to a lot of survivors who were there that night and they told me how they had to slide down the deck.

[Kristin Flavin]

Captain Sandberg says the list also made the rescue efforts more complicated.

[Captain George Sandberg]

Lifeboats can only be launched if there's a 15 degree list. So that meant that all the port lifeboats could not be used, half of

[Kristin Flavin]

the ship's lifeboats rendered useless. And over the course of 11 hours, the ship slowly sank.

[Captain George Sandberg]

They sent out a SOS message, and there were a number of ships that responded in the area, notably another very fast, beautiful cruise ship, the Ella of France. And she came steaming. I flew ahead through the fog to get there, and she ended up rescuing, I think, over 700 of the passengers.

[Kristin Flavin]

The Stockholm also rescued more than 500 passengers. And other smaller ships in the area took some survivors as well. In all, the collision claimed the lives of 51 individuals. Yet, Moyer notes the death toll could have been far Greater. There were 1700 people aboard the Andrea Doria.

[Captain George Sandberg]

It really is a miracle that so many people survived.

[Kristin Flavin]

It was the greatest peacetime rescue in maritime history. Both shipping lines settled the matter out of court, each assuming equal blame and wrapping the investigation quickly. But that left a terrifying question unanswered. If the Andrea Doria was the safest ocean liner and both ships had radar, what really happened? In 2001, a Master Mariner with the US Merchant Marines ran a simulation to try to solve the mystery. But trying to reproduce the collision based on the testimony from the Stockholm's officer on duty proved impossible.

[Captain George Sandberg]

In fact, in order if we used that testimony alone, Andrea Dorie would have had to make a sharp turn and increase speed to over 200 knots, which he could not do.

[Kristin Flavin]

Assuming the Stockholm's radar was on the wrong scale was the only way the collision happened. The Stockholm was repaired and went on to sail for several decades. What remains of the Andrea Doria is now resting at the bottom of the ocean.

[Captain George Sandberg]

It doesn't look anything like it did when I first started diving on it.

[Kristin Flavin]

While technology may have failed the ships that night, it's the monumental human efforts that ensure the Andrea Doria is remembered not just for the lives that were lost, but for the ones that were saved, too. That's this week's World History Book. I'm Kristin Flavin.

[Mary Reichert]

Tomorrow, new legislation designed to make the abortion pill even more accessible to college students will have a report and author Ryan Bomberger on how learning the truth about his origin story strengthened his faith. That and more tomorrow. I'm Mary Reicher.

[Nick Eicher]

And I'm Nick Eicher. The world and everything in it comes to you from from World Radio. World's mission is biblically objective journalism that informs, educates and inspires. The Bible says, the Lord is my shepherd. I shall not want. He makes me lie down in green pastures. He leads me beside still waters. He restores my soul. He leads me in paths of righteousness for his name's sake. Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil for you. You are with me. Your rod and your staff, they comfort me. You prepare a table before me in the presence of my enemies. You anoint my head with oil. My cup overflows. Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life. And I shall dwell in the house of the lord forever. Psalm 23. Go now in grace and peace.

[David Bonson]

Sam.