8.4.25 Defending religious liberty on Legal Docket, talking tariffs on Moneybeat, and History Book

Summary

The World and Everything In It Episode: 8.4.25 - Defending Religious Liberty on Legal Docket, Talking Tariffs on Moneybeat, and History Book Release Date: August 4, 2025

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News Highlights

White House Defends BLS Director Firing

President Trump has come under scrutiny after terminating Erica McIntyre, the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), following a disappointing jobs report. The report not only showed lower-than-expected job gains for August but also included significant downward revisions for the previous two months, marking the largest such revisions in 50 years (excluding COVID years).

• Mark Mellinger [00:52] reports, "Trump claims the jobs reports were rigged to make him look bad."
• Kevin Hassett, White House National Economic Council Director, supports Trump’s stance: "The numbers didn’t make sense" ([00:52]).

Democratic Senator Alex Padilla criticized the move, suggesting it was part of Trump’s broader strategy to weaponize government agencies ([01:32]).

Senate Negotiations Stall Over Funding and Appointments

As August recess begins, Senate negotiations have stalled, preventing the approval of several of Trump’s key appointees. The impasse centers around funding demands from Democrats, including significant allocations for foreign aid and the National Institutes of Health.

• Senator Markwayne Mullin [01:46] accuses Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer of "political extortion," highlighting disagreements over funding amounts: "We started at $800 million... they kept raising the number to 1.3 billion" ([01:46]).

Texas Democratic Walkout Over Redistricting

In a strategic move to block Republican-led redistricting efforts aimed at securing more GOP seats, Democratic lawmakers in Texas have initiated a walkout. State Attorney General has threatened arrests, but legal experts clarify that walkouts are considered civil violations without jail time ([02:45]).

Israeli Tensions Escalate Amid Hostage Crisis

In Israel, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir sparked international outrage by praying at the Al Aqsa mosque compound, violating decades-old agreements that restrict Jewish worship at the site. Concurrently, protests erupted in Tel Aviv over new Hamas propaganda involving Israeli hostages.

• Taryn Swain [05:42] emphasizes Israel's resolve: "We will not leave the hostages behind" ([05:42]).

Trump Repositions Nuclear Submarines Amid Russia Tensions

Facing heightened tensions with Russia, Trump has repositioned two nuclear submarines as a show of strength. This action responds to threats from Russian security officials and former President Dmitry Medvedev, who deemed Trump’s ultimatums as "a step toward war." The administration is keeping all diplomatic and economic options open to address the ongoing conflict with Ukraine ([05:50]).

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Legal Docket: Defending Religious Liberty

Christian Music Controversy in Michigan Schools

A dispute arose when students sought to perform Colton Dixon’s Christian song at a Michigan elementary school talent show. School administrators initially rejected the request, citing the songs as "too Christian based for a public school setting" ([08:05]).

• David Bonson [08:27] highlights Dixon’s supportive response: "First of all, thanks for choosing my song."
• Kelly Shackelford [08:30] adds, "I think that is what an honor."

With intervention from the First Liberty Institute, a nonprofit legal firm defending religious liberty, parents successfully overturned the school's decision through a formal letter, allowing the students to perform their songs ([08:50]).

Employment Discrimination Case: Jocelyn Bowden vs. Bath and Body Works

Jocelyn Bowden, a store manager in Utah, was fired for refusing to use male pronouns for her transgender employee, citing her religious and moral convictions. Bowden contends that her employer bypassed internal disciplinary procedures, terminating her directly ([09:04]).

• Kelly Shackelford [10:18] describes the case as a "perfect test" of recent Supreme Court rulings on workplace religious protections, referencing Groff v. DeJoy ([10:18]).

The case is now with the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission (EEOC), determining whether to support Bowden's lawsuit ([11:17]).

Free Speech Challenge: Gabriel Olivier’s Park Preaching

Gabriel Olivier, a Christian evangelist in Brandon, Mississippi, was fined for preaching outside a designated protest area in a public park. His actions led to a criminal citation, creating a legal paradox where he cannot challenge the fine in court unless it is overturned ([11:59]).

• Kelly Shackelford [12:59] criticizes the legal constraints, emphasizing the necessity for a "day in court" regarding free speech ([12:59]).

Olivier's case is slated for the Supreme Court next term, marking a significant moment for religious speech rights ([13:14]).

Advocating Prayer at Ventura County City Council

Taryn Swain, a mother from Ventura County, faced significant opposition when attempting to pray at a city council meeting about her daughter's socially transitioned identity. Initially cut off by the mayor, Swain, supported by the First Liberty Institute, was allowed to complete her prayer in a subsequent meeting after legal intervention ([14:32]).

• Kelly Shackelford [16:17] notes a cultural shift: "It's okay to speak the truth... the emperor has no clothes" ([16:17]).

This case underscores the ongoing battles over religious expression in public forums ([16:17]).

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Monday Money Beat: US Tariffs and Economic Impact

Trump Administration’s Tariff Strategy Under Fire

David Bonson, financial analyst and Chief Investment Officer at the Bonson Group, provides an in-depth analysis of the Trump administration's fluctuating tariff policies affecting China, Mexico, and Canada. The Wall Street Journal highlights the complexity and uncertainty surrounding these tariffs, complicating business planning and economic forecasts ([17:00]).

• David Bonson [17:44] describes tariffs as "an economic tax that drags on growth," emphasizing their detrimental impact on small businesses and overall economic productivity ([18:21]).

Revised Jobs Reports and Economic Slowdown

Recent jobs reports have seen significant downward revisions, with May and June job gains slashed by over a quarter million. The labor force participation rate has dropped to 62.2%, the lowest in a year.

• David Bonson [20:57] attributes the slowdown partly to tariff policies: "It is extremely unlikely... that we're sitting here running at about 35,000 jobs per month... as bad as we've seen since COVID... it has correlation to the tariff policies" ([20:57]).

GDP Growth and Trade Dynamics

The second-quarter GDP report showed a misleading 3% growth, primarily driven by a 30% drop in imports. Bonson explains that this figure masks underlying economic weaknesses, resulting in a volatile annualized growth rate of 1.25%, signaling a precarious economic position ([23:37]).

• David Bonson [27:52] addresses the concept of a "Laffer curve for tariffs," concluding that current tariff levels are beyond the optimal point, causing more harm than benefit to economic productivity ([27:52]).

Bonson anticipates continued economic challenges over the next 18 months, with clarity on trade deals potentially offering some respite but overall growth remaining subdued ([29:09]).

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History Book: Mysteries and Stories from New York

The Disappearance of Justice Joseph Force Crater

On August 6, 1930, Joseph Force Crater, New York State Supreme Court Justice, vanished after boarding a cab near Times Square. Crater, associated with the corrupt Tominy Hall political machine, left behind a trail of speculation ranging from fleeing with a mistress to foul play.

• Taryn Swain [30:18] compares Crater’s disappearance to iconic cases like Jimmy Hoffa and Amelia Earhart, underscoring its enduring mystery ([30:18]).

Despite extensive manhunts and thousands of tips, Crater remains missing, with theories including his alleged murder by a cop and his cabbie brother, though no evidence has surfaced ([32:42]).

Hercule Poirot’s Final Farewell

In a unique literary homage, the New York Times published an obituary for Agatha Christie's fictional detective, Hercule Poirot, marking the first instance of honoring a fictional character in such a manner. Poirot's death, caused by a heart condition in Christie's novel Curtain, symbolizes the end of an era in detective fiction ([34:19]).

Flight Attendant Steve Slater’s Dramatic Exit

Fifteen years ago, Steve Slater, a long-time JetBlue flight attendant, made headlines by exiting a flight mid-taxi using the emergency slide in a fit of rage. Citing a confrontation with a passenger and fueled by alcohol, Slater’s dramatic departure was both criticized and lauded by the public.

• Lindsay Mast [35:17] recounts Slater's ordeal, noting his subsequent counsel against glorifying his actions as a cautionary tale ([35:17]).

Slater narrowly avoided prison after investigators disproved his account of the altercation, emphasizing the repercussions of unchecked emotions in the workplace ([35:17]).

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Conclusion

This episode of The World and Everything In It delves deep into pressing issues surrounding religious liberty, economic policies, and intriguing historical mysteries. From the frontline legal battles protecting free speech and religious expression to the nuanced impacts of tariff strategies on the economy, WORLD Radio provides comprehensive coverage grounded in factual reporting and insightful analysis. Additionally, the exploration of historical enigmas adds a captivating narrative element, enriching listeners' understanding of both contemporary and historical events.

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Notable Quotes:

• Mary Reichert [00:05]: "Religious liberty in school, in public and on the job requires vigilance."

• David Bonson [18:21]: "Tariffs are an economic tax that drags on growth."

• Kelly Shackelford [16:17]: "It's okay to speak the truth... the emperor has no clothes."

• Taryn Swain [14:38]: "I saw where that path led... when God calls me to do something, I do it."

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For more in-depth discussions and analyses, tune into The World and Everything In It on Apple Podcasts and support listener-supported WORLD Radio.

Transcript

[Mary Reichert]

Good morning. Religious liberty in school, in public and on the job requires vigilance.

[Kelly Shackelford]

They put it in writing that she was fired for using the wrong pronouns.

[Lindsay Mast]

That and other religious liberty battles ahead on legal docket. Also, the Monday Money beat with David Bonson and a New York edition of the World history book, including a flight attendant who quit his job without thinking it through.

[David Bonson]

I'd had it.

[Taryn Swain]

I was absolutely done at that moment.

[Mary Reichert]

It's Monday, August 4th. This is the world and everything in it. From listener supported World Radio. I'm Mary Reichert.

[Lindsay Mast]

And I'm Lindsay Mast. Good morning.

[Mary Reichert]

Time for news. Here's Mark Mellinger.

[Mark Mellinger]

White House Cabinet members are defending President Trump's firing of the Bureau of Labor Statistics Director. Trump terminated Erica McIntyre for Friday after the bureau's most recent jobs report came in lower than expected and job gains from the previous two months were revised down hundreds of thousands. Trump claims the jobs reports were rigged to make him look bad. White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett is backing the president's decision, claiming the numbers didn't make sense.

[David Bonson]

When I first saw the big revisions.

[Taryn Swain]

Which, by the way, were the largest.

[Mark Mellinger]

Revisions going all the way back for.

[Taryn Swain]

50 years if we exclude the COVID years. When I saw those revisions, I thought.

[Mark Mellinger]

It must be a typo, that I've never seen a revision like this, democratic California Senator Alex Padilla tells NBC's Meet the Press. The bureau is just one of many government agencies Trump is weaponizing when he's.

[Taryn Swain]

Trying to weaponize the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That tells you a lot about their.

[David Bonson]

Insecurity about the economy.

[Mark Mellinger]

White House Trade Representative Jameson Greer says the president is the president and has the right to choose who works in the executive branch. And Trump says the next person appointed to the job will be competent and qualified. Senators are headed home for their August recess without a deal to approve several of President Trump's appointees to key posts. Negotiations broke down over the weekend in order to clear the way for the nominee's approval. Democrats wanted the GOP to unfreeze funding for causes like foreign aid and the National Institutes of Health. Republican Oklahoma Senator Mark Wayne Mullen tells Fox News, we started at $800 million for pet projects for Schumer, and they kept raising the number to 1.3 billion. And a lot of this had to do with money going to Gaza, which.

[David Bonson]

Keep in mind Hamas hasn't even released the hostages.

[Mark Mellinger]

Mullen, referring to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. The president thought Schumer's demands were going too far and encouraged senators to reject them calling them political extortion. Schumer acc Trump of pulling the plug on negotiations State Democratic lawmakers in Texas left their state Sunday hoping to block a Republican effort to draw new boundary lines for congressional districts aimed at helping secure an additional handful of seats for the gop. The Legislature is convening for the rare mid decade redistricting at President Trump's request, and GOP leaders are hoping to vote on the new maps today. But but to conduct official business, at least 100 of the 150 members of the Texas House must be present, and a Democratic spokesman says at least 51 lawmakers have walked out. Former Obama administration Attorney General Eric Holder tells ABC's this Week this is an.

[Taryn Swain]

Authoritarian move by the White House to try to make sure that they can rig the election, the midterm elections in 2026. And so I think that a Democratic response that is responsible, that is responsive and that is temporary is appropriate.

[Mark Mellinger]

Given these facts, the walkout could expose Democratic lawmakers to fines and other penalties. Texas's attorney general has even threatened arrest. But legislative walkouts are civil violations, so lawmakers could not legally face jail time. An Israeli national security minister widely considered an extremist sparked outrage Sunday leading a prayer at Jerusalem's most sensitive holy site. Itamar Ben GVIR prayed at the Al Aqsa mosque compound in the complex known in Judaism as the Temple Mount. A decades old agreement bars Jews from worshiping there. Anyone can visit, but only Muslims are allowed to pray. Ben GVIR was there on a yearly day of mourning in Judaism, calling for Israel to conquer Gaza. Jordan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Palestinian leaders all condemned the prayers. In the past, Ben GVIR has been convicted of supporting terrorist groups and inciting anti Arab racism in Israel. Also in Israel, tens of thousands of protesters converged on Tel Aviv over the weekend, furious over new Hamas propaganda videos showing two emaciated Israeli hostages. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is now accusing Hamas of not wanting a ceasefire. He's also asking the International Red Cross to bring food and medical care to the hostages in Gaza. Hamas says it won't put down its weapons until a Palestinian state is recognized. Israeli UN Ambassador Danny Dinan says his country won't stop fighting either. They believe that because of the international.

[Taryn Swain]

Pressure and the lies that they spread the they can get whatever they want. But they are mistaken. We will not leave the hostages behind.

[Mark Mellinger]

At least 50 hostages, both alive and dead, are still believed to be in Hamas custody. President Trump is repositioning two nuclear submarines amid increasing tension with Russia. Trump did not give specifics, but says moving the subs is a response to a recent threat from Russian security official and former President Dmitry Medvedev, who called a recent ultimatum from Trump a step toward war. Trump says Russia has until Friday to secure a ceasefire with Ukraine or face increased economic sanctions. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller all options are on the table.

[Kelly Shackelford]

To deal diplomatically, financially and otherwise with the ongoing war in Ukraine so we can achieve peace.

[Mark Mellinger]

Miller talking to Sunday MORNING Futures with Maria Bartiromo. Trump has also told Medvedev to watch his words. I'm Mark Millinger. Straight ahead previewing a handful of religious freedom cases on legal docket. Plus, David Bonson untangles US Tariff policy on the Monday money beat. This is the world and everything in.

[Mary Reichert]

It Even though I walk through the valley sometimes it feels like a crawl through the valley but I got a promise that I hold on tight too I can't lose when I'm right beside you yeah gotta know the plans you have for me when my cup is overflowing so while I'm in the in between Imma live my life knowing if I get down you pick me up.

[Lindsay Mast]

From the ground it's the world and everything in it for this fourth day of August 2025. We're so glad you've joined us today. Good morning. I'm Lindsay Mast.

[Mary Reichert]

And I'm Mary Reichard. It's time for legal docket. That music you hear is singer Colton Dixon's hit song on the Christian music charts. Up and up I'll lift you up and up again. Earlier this year, it was briefly at the center of a controversy in an elementary school in Michigan.

[Lindsay Mast]

Back in May, a couple of students wanted to perform Christian tunes for the talent show. One was Dixon's song, but school administrators refused, arguing the songs were too Christian based for a public school setting.

[Mary Reichert]

Well, word got out and eventually Colton Dixon himself got wind of it through a video on social media. So he posted about it himself, whoever the student was.

[David Bonson]

First of all, thanks for choosing my song.

[Kelly Shackelford]

I think that is what an honor. You know I want to be tagged in the video.

[David Bonson]

But apparently the school came back and said that they couldn't do it because.

[Taryn Swain]

It was too overtly Christian and that.

[Mary Reichert]

Not everyone believed in God.

[Kelly Shackelford]

And now we actually have the freedom and the right to do this, to worship freely.

[David Bonson]

So kudos to you guys.

[Mary Reichert]

Parents stepped up and called a non profit law firm that defends religious liberty, First Liberty Institute. In this case, all it took was a letter to the school to change things. The students Sang their songs. Happy ending.

[Lindsay Mast]

Of course, not all defenders of religious liberty find such an easy resolution. Take Jocelyn Bowden of Utah. She was a store manager for Bath and Body Works for more than three years. In March, she hired a person who soon informed Bowdoin she was transgender and wanted to go by a different name. Bowdoin didn't have a problem with that part. As she told her lawyers, I didn't.

[David Bonson]

Mind calling this new associate by her preferred nickname.

[Lindsay Mast]

I just, in my own personal beliefs, did not agree with falsifying my speech or being coerced to speak in a way that went against my religious and moral convictions by calling her a him. When Bowdoin said she couldn't use male pronouns for a woman, HR got involved, and soon Bowdoin was fired. Her lawyer says the company failed to follow its own discipline policy and went straight to firing her.

[Mary Reichert]

I did ask Beth and Body Works for comment on this story, but I didn't hear back. So for now, this case is in the hands of the Equal Employment Opportunity Commission, or eeoc. That's the required first step prior to filing a lawsuit of this sort in federal court.

[Lindsay Mast]

First Liberty's president and chief counsel, Kelly Shackelford, says it's a strong case, one needed to clarify previous case law.

[Kelly Shackelford]

They put it in writing that she was fired for using the wrong pronouns. And this is a great test of something that we just won at the Supreme Court a few years ago. It's a perfect case because a lot of times what happens in the workplace is people will not say why they're really doing what they're doing. You know, they'll say. They won't say, well, I don't like the Christians and I'm firing this person. Or I don't like the Jewish guy who has different beliefs than we do on. Let's say he's Orthodox Jews and he has a Sabbath on a Friday night to a Saturday night. They don't say those things. A lot of times. They just do it. In this case, they said it.

[Mary Reichert]

The case he's talking about is Groff V. DeJoy from 2023. Gerald Groff asked that he not have to work on Sundays for religious reasons, even though the USPS made accommodations for him at first. Eventually that changed, and Groff felt he had no choice but to resign. And then he sued for discrimination, and.

[Lindsay Mast]

He won at the Supreme Court, 9 to 0. That raised the standard for when employers can deny someone a religious accommodation.

[Kelly Shackelford]

It meant now people do have protections in the workplace. Well, here's the first really Major test case. You're hearing about these all over, people losing their jobs, not because they're not doing well or they're not doing what they're supposed to do, but because there's some sort of pronoun policy.

[Lindsay Mast]

So now the EEOC will decide whether to pursue the case on Jocelyn Bowden's behalf or give her a right to sue letter so she can move ahead on her own.

[Mary Reichert]

Another case involves free speech along with a criminal charge. Gabriel Olivier is a Christian evangelist who preached in a public park in Brandon, Mississippi.

[Kelly Shackelford]

The city actually passed a law that you could only go into one little part of the park, which they called the protest area. Like sharing the gospel is a protest, and if you go out of it, you get fined. And so, well, Gabe went to try to be obedient. He went in the area, but he's like, oh, I can't talk to anybody. And that's kind of the whole purpose is to be able to share with people. And so he walked out of the free speech area, of the protest area, and they fined him. They issued him a criminal citation.

[Mary Reichert]

Olivier went ahead and paid the fine, intending to challenge the law in court. And that's when things got more complicated. Supreme Court precedent says a person with a criminal conviction cannot challenge it in civil court unless it's been reversed or overturned. But that creates a catch 22 for Olivier. He couldn't sue before the conviction, nor after it.

[Kelly Shackelford]

It's sort of this anomaly of the weird situation that some of the judges are interpreting this Supreme Court case. And so you'd think that would be kind of obvious that everybody has their right to the day in court, especially free speech in a public park. Right.

[Lindsay Mast]

So the justices will hear Olivier's case next term. It'll be the first major religious speech case of this kind in years.

[Mary Reichert]

And finally, back west to California. Taryn Swain this past spring attended a Ventura County City Council meeting. Her daughter had been socially transitioned at school, affirming the child's identity as the opposite sex. Swain wanted to address that with policy arguments to the council, but she was 84th in a line of a high. 130 people queued up to speak. And by the time it was her turn to speak, Swayne felt moved to pray.

[Gabriel Olivier]

Hi, I'm Taryn Swain. I'm a mother of six. And the Ventura County Public School socially transitioned my daughter without my consent. I'm come here today to offer nothing but prayer. And I want to lift up my father in heaven. Father God, I just come to you In Jesus name, I pray, Father, that.

[Lindsay Mast]

The crowd got loud and antagonistic, and before she could finish, the mayor cut her off.

[Gabriel Olivier]

Everybody stop.

[Taryn Swain]

Stop.

[Gabriel Olivier]

Yep.

[Taryn Swain]

Stop. Stop. Thank you.

[Lindsay Mast]

We don't do prayer.

[Mary Reichert]

Swain kept going. I talked to her on Friday and asked how she found the nerve to continue praying.

[Gabriel Olivier]

You messed with my kid. And on top of that, I have lived a life of disobedience. And I saw where that path led. And so now when God calls me to do something, I do it. And it really didn't matter what was going on. It was just noise at that moment.

[Mary Reichert]

Swain told me when she stood at the podium, she had a vision of darkness behind the council with angelic beings and Christ present.

[Gabriel Olivier]

It sounds wild, but it's just this picture I got in my head, and I felt like the Lord was like, I want you to speak as if I'm the only one you're speaking to.

[Lindsay Mast]

Swain contacted First Liberty and its lawyers, sent a letter to the city council explaining her First Amendment rights. She was invited back at the very next city council meeting. This time, she was allowed to say her prayer despite pushback.

[Gabriel Olivier]

Father, God, I just again come to you in Jesus name, Lord. I just pray, Father, that you would, Lord, that.

[Mark Mellinger]

Please, please, audience.

[Mary Reichert]

Madam Mayor, Madam audience. Order.

[Taryn Swain]

She's able to pray as long as it is tied to the issue, Correct? City Attorney. The public needs to allow the speaker to complete her comment. Please respect the speaker at the podium until their time is up.

[Gabriel Olivier]

Father, I just come to you in your son Jesus name, Lord.

[Mary Reichert]

So those are a few religious liberty cases, some solved with a courageous soul and a well placed letter, others with a courageous soul willing to wind his or her way through the system. Kelly Shackelford thinks the tide is shifting.

[Kelly Shackelford]

So it's just now that we've turned the corner and you're seeing it both in legal actions and in the public arena where people realize it is okay to speak to the truth. You know, the emperor has no clothes. You know, it's okay to say it now.

[Mary Reichert]

And that's this week's legal docket.

[Kelly Shackelford]

Additional support comes from Asbury University, where academic excellence meets spirit. Asbury. Edu visit. And from Cedarville University, equipping students for professional excellence and gospel impact. Cedarville.

[Taryn Swain]

Edu World.

[Lindsay Mast]

Coming up next on the World and everything in it, the Monday Money Beat.

[Mary Reichert]

Well, it's time now to talk business, markets and the economy with financial analyst and advisor David Bonson. David heads up the wealth management firm, the Bonson Group, and he's here now. Good morning to you, David.

[David Bonson]

Well, good morning, Mary. Good to be with you.

[Mary Reichert]

Well, the Wall Street Journal this week mapped out where the Trump administration's tariff strategy currently stands. Threats, carve outs, exemptions and still more deadlines looming. With China, Mexico and Canada all in flu, this uncertainty is making it difficult for them to plan. Now, David, you have long argued tariffs are an economic tax that drags on growth and you made that point in your latest dividend cafe. With so many moving targets in this tariff policy, what should we expect in the weeks and months ahead?

[David Bonson]

Well, it is continually uncertain because there are still other pieces that are out there and even the impact of the policies that we now do have clarity on some of the policies are more clear, but the impact from some of those policies remains a bit unclear. So it's actually hard for me to remember a point in which there were so many balls in the air, if you will, around the state of the labor market, around the state of business investment, what the appetite for trade will be. Small business activity is of particular concern to me not only because I do think it's highly relevant to total economic growth and productivity, but because it is narrowly important to those small businesses who I think represent an underappreciated part of our economy and candidly have really not been a big concern in the new administration's policy portfolio. I've been surprised that small business has sort of gotten the shaft so far. I do believe that there will be a bit of a tug of war in an economic push pull forces. One of the things I expect to be beneficial is the pro growth aspects of the new tax bill, stimulating some element of capital investment. The 100% business expensing, bonus depreciation for putting new real estate into play for productive purpose. I think you're going to see some activity there that'll be good. But then it's in a bit of a tug of war with an additional expense, a tax, a cost out of the tariff element and the way all of this affects total global trade will affect demand in the economy and that will affect, of course, how businesses respond. And in the meantime, a lot of people will be looking at what it does to inflation and prices as well. So I think there's six or seven things I said there and some of them are connected to one another, but all of them have a certain independent characteristic to them as well.

[Mary Reichert]

You know, the July jobs report was pretty rough, around 70,000 new jobs, not great. And big downward revisions to May and June cut earlier job gains by more than a quarter of a million and I know this one is near and dear to you, David. The labor force participation rate fell to 62.2%, and that's the lowest in a year. How much of this slowdown do you think comes from tariffs and trade uncertainty versus other factors in the labor market?

[David Bonson]

Well, I'll be the first to admit that I think some of that is very hard to say with certainty. But there are things you have to do as an economist around what your logical intuition would be. Even if correlation and causation are never exactly the same thing, it's extremely unlikely that we're sitting here running at about 35,000 jobs per month over the last several months, as bad a number as we've seen since COVID and that it has no correlation at all to the tariff policies. I find that just simply impossible to believe. Now, of course, we have to see where things go in the months ahead. There's a bit more clarity now than there was when some of these jobs reports were coming out. But I do think, as a matter of narrative, that this is a very big deal. Far bigger, Mary, than the July report were the revisions in May and June because the administration sort of trafficked all summer off of the hey, we did all this tariff stuff in April and look how good jobs were. The economy's humming along. And then now to see that in fact the jobs numbers were basically not just as good as thought but actually atrocious is really undermining of that narrative, and I'm not sure that it spirals worse from here. I do not see GDP going into a negative print, but if we end up the year where we are now, that real GDP growth is right now 1.25% annualized, then that really puts us in a very precarious position. Very low, slow, nearly no growth in the economy, and that would be very concerning. All the while we're expecting corporate profits to keep doing all the lifting, and corporate profits surely cannot keep growing with 1% economic growth.

[Mary Reichert]

You know, the second quarter GDP report looked strong at first glance, 3% growth. The wall Street Journal editorial page called it the weirdest GDP report ever, making the point that the gain came almost entirely from collapsing imports. Now, again, this is not my area of expertise by any means, but I read that one one component of GDP growth is exports minus imports, and with imports falling 30%, that net export figure was alone responsible for fully 5 percentage points of the GDP. So what do you make of this GDP report and what does it tell you about the real state of the economy right now?

[David Bonson]

Well, it was Not a good report. Let me clarify. Have a little fun for world listeners. The net exports, which is the fourth ingredient in how they measured gdp, the reason why it is exports minus imports is to avoid double counting imports. What GDP is trying to measure is gross domestic product. And the other two ingredients include consumption. So somebody has already consumed an import in the consumption number and production, the things that get produced that become part of that process. So by subtracting out imports, it's just a way to avoid double counting it. Well, the imports were skyrocketing in the first quarter in advance of tariffs. It's what we call front running. So that had the mathematical effect of dramatically lowering GDP. So people like me were saying on Moneybeat three months ago, yeah, we technically contracted 1/4 here it was by 0.5%. But the consumption and the production number were high enough that it was not really a sustainable contraction. But what happened was instead the import number reversed and all you did is trade one quarter for the other. It resulted in the annualized number of 3% in Q2, which sounds good, negative 0.5 in Q1, which sounds bad. And then averaging them together gets you an annualized growth of 1.25%, which is not good. So the big swing in imports are one time events that are related to uncertainty around tariff policy. They matter. But it's one of the reasons that I am a supply sider who really believes that business investment, production drives what is going to happen with the rest of economic growth. And the business investment side is clearly very muted right now. And the small business optimism that is a pretty good leading indicator to certain production is extremely muted. So will getting clarity on trade deals help improve this? Even if there's certain parts of the trade deals that the markets or that businesses don't like, but just merely having clarity, will that help? I hope so. But there's no way around the fact, Mary, that there is a higher tariff level than there was a year ago. Now, it's true, it's much lower than the President had threatened. But that real life number is a cost. And when we talk about it as money coming into us, it is money coming out from us, it is money being paid by our business community. So they're all going to debate whether or not it pushes prices higher. And I think that there are some cases where prices may go higher and there's some cases where they won't. But the real question is, does it push demand lower and does it push corporate profits lower? Does it push total trade lower? And then ultimately, if trade goes lower, that means there's less capital coming into the country. And that creates a vicious cycle where less capital will mean less productive activity. So this is not something we're measuring next week, next quarter, but this is a 6 12, 18 month thing that has to play out if we're going to do it.

[Mary Reichert]

Honestly, I want to circle back to the tariff question. I've heard about this thing called the Laffer curve, and it does make sense to me. If tax rates are 0%, the government collects nothing. If tax rates are 100% and the government takes every penny, nobody works. And the government also collects nothing. So cutting very high tax rates can actually bring in more money because it gets people working and investing again. It makes perfect sense. Now, since tariffs are basically a tax, is there anything like a Laffer curve for tariffs? Is there some point where they can actually make sense or are they just harmful to economic activity at any rate?

[David Bonson]

Well, there's certainly a Laffer curve where the knob is turned up and down for how the impact is relative to the revenue they generate versus the impact they have on productivity. And in this case, we're talking about the impact they have on trade, which becomes an impact to productivity. But when we say could they be a good thing, I assume that's because we're talking about it being a good thing to generate more revenue for the government. And this is an additive tax. It is not being used to replace capital gain tax taxes on capital. It's not being replaced to replace corporate income tax or personal income tax. So all it is is in total some level of money leaving the private sector to go to the governmental sector. So we're already in an aggregate Laffer's curve whereby that number has already pushed to the unproductive, inefficient side. But I certainly agree that a micro Laffer curve exists for tariffs and higher tariff rates do more damage than lower ones. But whether we're at 15 or 12, it's all higher than where it had been and therefore is pushing the demand curve down and pushing economic productivity down.

[Mary Reichert]

All right. David Bonson is founder, managing partner and chief investment officer at the Bonson Group. He writes regularly for World Opinions and at Dividend Cafe. David, thanks so much. We'll see you next week.

[David Bonson]

Thanks so much, Mary.

[Mary Reichert]

Today is Monday, August 4th. Good morning. This is the world and everything in it from Listener supported World Radio. I'm Mary Reichert.

[Lindsay Mast]

And I'm Lindsay Mast. Up next, the world history book. Today, three stories from New York City. A flight attendant's job tips him over the edge and a famous detective meets a deadly end.

[Mary Reichert]

But first, the cold case of the missingest man in New York. Here's World's Paul Butler.

[Taryn Swain]

We begin today on August 6, 1930, New York State Supreme Court Justice Joseph Force Crater gets into a cab near Manhattan's Times Square. He's never seen again.

[David Bonson]

The disappearance of Crater is huge. It's probably the equivalent of a Jimmy Hoffa or even Amelia Earhart.

[Taryn Swain]

Retired detective John Teft is a Crater case enthusiast and was featured in a History Channel documentary on his disappearance. So who was Joseph Crater? He was the son of Irish immigrants. As a boy, his father owned a produce market and orchard. But Joseph had other aspirations, the law. He graduated from Columbia University in 1916. He began as a humble clerk, but worked his way up to becoming a successful lawyer. Crater met his wife Stella while in college. She was married at the time, and he helped her get a divorce. The two tied the knot in 1917. Crater became well connected politically in New York City and caught the eye of Governor Franklin D. Roosevelt, who appointed Crater to the state bench in 1930. Crater was associated with the corrupt Tominy hall and its political machine. Many believe Crater essentially paid for his position on the court. It was not his only scandal. He was often seen in public with women, not his wife. John Tefft once again.

[David Bonson]

And it's not uncommon for him to sometimes be gone for several days at.

[Taryn Swain]

A time with other women. While vacationing with his wife in August 1930, he received a call from New York. When he hung up, all he told Stella was that he needed to return to straighten a few guys out. He promised to be back in Maine by her birthday the week following. His clerk later told authorities that while Crater was in New York, the judge destroyed documents, moved files from his office to his apartment, and made arrangements to withdraw $5,000 from his. Then on August 6, he ate a meal with a lawyer friend and a showgirl at one of his usual haunts. When he left that dinner, he got into a cab and disappeared. Though it wasn't reported for days, many of his friends thought he'd return to his vacation with his wife. She thought he was still taking care of business in New York. But when he didn't return for her birthday, Stella began making calls. No one seemed that willing to talk. Historian Sammy Girouche from the same History Channel documentary.

[Kelly Shackelford]

They honestly don't really know where he is, but they're just assuming that he's off with one of his girlfriends.

[Taryn Swain]

Eventually, news got out that Judge Crater was missing. Some thought he fled the country with a mistress. Others believed it was foul play. By September, a dramatic manhunt began, with city detectives fielding more than 16,000 tips from around the country and around the world. And they all proved to be dead ends. Stories about the disappearance and resulting investigation filled newspapers and became an international story, even leading to popular culture. Reference to polling a crater, which is synonymous for going AWOL. Officials declared Crater legally dead on June 6, 1939, and 40 years later, the state closed missing persons file number 13595. A letter unearthed in 2005 claimed that he had been killed by a cop and his cabbie brother, then buried at the site of what's now the New York Aquarium. But no remains were ever found. And 90 years after his disappearance, his earthly end remains a mystery. And speaking of mysteries, next, the death of a famous detective. On August 6, 50 years ago, the New York Times bestowed a high honor by publishing his obituary on the front page. At the end of his life, he was arthritic and had a bad heart. He was in a wheelchair often and was carried from his bedroom to the public lounge at Styles Court, a nursing home in Essex, wearing a wig and false mustaches to mask the signs of age that offended his vanity. Why was his obituary such an honor? Well, he wasn't actually a real detective.

[Mark Mellinger]

I am Hercule Poirot. Yes, Mother.

[Taryn Swain]

His career, as chronicled in the novels of Dame Agatha Christie, his creator, was one of the most illustrious in fiction. Poirot rose to fame as the dignified, charming protagonist of Christie's crime novels. She hated him, saying his character was insufferable, but her devoted readers loved him. And when Christie announced she was killing him off, New York Times book critic Thomas Lask had to honor his memory in the book. Poirot died of a heart condition at the end of Christie's detective novel Curtain, Poirot's Last Case. It was the first and last time that the New York Times published an obituary of a fictional character. And finally, 15 years ago, Flight attendant Steve Slater quits his job in a fit of rage, literally taking the emergency exit. Audio from Daily Mail World Outside Slater's.

[Mark Mellinger]

Home in New York City, neighbors say.

[Taryn Swain]

He did what a lot of people think about doing, but don't. The August 9th JetBlue flight from Pittsburgh to New York City began like any other, but certainly didn't end like one. Slater was on board, a 20 year veteran of the skies. He later said he was a little tipsy during the trip. Audio from an ABC News interview with Slater. Truthfully, I will Admit that it was one of those days that drove me to drink, and I admit that I did have a little sip. But Slater had, had had more than just a sip. While the plane taxied to a terminal at the John F. Kennedy Airport, he claimed that a passenger tried to get out of her seat and grab her luggage in the overhead compartment after Slater told her not to. According to his account of the events, she snapped at him and her luggage fell, hitting Slater in the head. So he grabbed the PA system microphone and started cursing at her. I was angry. I was in a little bit of a state of. Of rage. I'd had it. I was absolutely done at that moment. Slater swiped two cans of beer from the beverage cart, pulled the lever for the inflatable emergency slide, then slid down. He threw his uniform tie on the tarmac, walked calmly to his Jeep, and drove back to his house in Queens. Slater became an overnight sensation. Many blue collar Americans considered him a folk hero, and late night TV show hosts joked about his great escape. Like Jimmy Kimmel. We all had an inflatable escape slide at our jobs. I bet 80% of us would quit like that. And Jay Leno.

[David Bonson]

Anybody out there looking for a job? There is an opening for a flight attendant at JetBlue.

[Lindsay Mast]

That's right.

[Taryn Swain]

Others criticized Slater's behavior and JetBlue fired him. He only narrowly avoided prison. Investigators determined the account of the tussle with the female passenger was false. As for Slater, he later encouraged people not to praise his actions, instead to see them as a cautionary tale. Address your concerns, address your issues, work to the best of your ability to better your position, but keep it in check. For World, I'm Paul Butler with writing and reporting from Emma Eicher.

[Lindsay Mast]

Tomorrow, the federal government passes cryptocurrency legislation, prompting concern over conflicts of interest. And we'll meet a man who just wanted to make friends and discovered an international mission field in his own backyard. That and more tomorrow.

[Mary Reichert]

Welcome to Radio.

[Lindsay Mast]

I'm Lindsay Mast.

[Mary Reichert]

And I'm Mary Reichert. The world and everything in it comes to you from World Radio. World's mission is biblically objective journalism that informs, educates and inspires. Jesus said, truly, I say to you, whoever does not receive the kingdom of God like a child shall not enter it. Verse 15 of Mark, chapter 10. Go now. In grace and peace.

[Taryn Swain]

Sat.