The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Sky News | Bonus Episode
Title: Ayatollah Khamenei killed: What next for The Middle East? Q&A with Richard Engel
Date: March 1, 2026

Episode Overview

In this urgent bonus episode, Richard Engel, reporting from Tel Aviv, addresses the assassination of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and the beginning of a major US-Israeli offensive against Iran. With Yalda Hakim away on assignment, producers Liv and Philly step in to ask Engel hard-hitting questions about regime change, military strategies, global repercussions, and the unprecedented volatility now facing the Middle East and beyond.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The US-Israeli Offensive Against Iran

• Situation: The US and Israel have launched joint military action aimed at toppling Iran’s regime following the confirmed death of Khamenei ([00:02]).
• Action: The campaign is focused on obliterating Iran’s missile capabilities and leadership, not a ground invasion.
• Iran’s Response: Iran is retaliating against US and Israeli interests, as well as targets across the Gulf.

2. Regime Change: Methods and Precedents

• Three Models of Regime Change ([02:25]):
  • Occupation Model (Iraq, Afghanistan): Involves invasion, occupation, and attempted nation-building—ultimately costly, unpopular, and unsuccessful.
  • Targeted Leadership Change (Venezuela): Removing and replacing top leadership while leaving structure intact—limited in scope, with questionable efficacy.
  • Current Model ("Smash and Hope"): Destroying Iran’s military and leadership in hopes of fostering new leadership without ground troops.
    • Risks: No successful historic precedent. Relies on the spontaneous emergence of moderate opposition or exiled figures like the late Shah’s son.

"They are doing this because they learned the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan. They don't want to send in ground troops. President Trump doesn't want to send in ground troops... But it is a bit of a destroy, hope for a better day. And it is, it is very, very risky."
— Richard Engel ([04:56])

3. Why Diplomacy Broke Down

• Recent Negotiations: Talks mediated by Oman seemed hopeful, but both last summer—and now—they were abruptly cut off by military action ([06:07]).
• Catalyst: Combat began immediately following claims of failed diplomacy and an imminent threat narrative by President Trump.
• Underlying Motive: Opportunity due to Iran’s weakened state after the “12 Day War,” diminished proxies (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis), and significant internal unrest.
• Regional Support: Reports suggest Saudi Arabia, Netanyahu, and Trump were aligned in seizing this opportunity.

"I think it's a...simple formula of old grievance met opportunity. Now there's war. And where it's going is...is really a head scratcher."
— Richard Engel ([07:50])

4. Israel’s Position in the Region

• Unmatched Strength: Israel is described as more powerful and dominant than ever, leading to anxiety among Arab states ([08:36]).
• Regional Dynamics: Iran is lashing out at Gulf states, yet their deeper fear is Israel-US hegemony.
• US-Israel Alliance: Deep strategic partnership, particularly close since Hamas's October 7 attack. Militaries working "hand in glove," including during current operations ([10:09]).

"As far as I've seen, covering this region for about 25 years. I've never seen Israel so militarily strong and unchallenged."
— Richard Engel ([09:46])

5. Russia and China: Strategic Response

• Benefiting from Distraction: Russia and China see US involvement in a new conflict as diverting American attention and resources from Ukraine and the Indo-Pacific ([11:24]).
• Resource Depletion: US deployment of advanced missile defense systems in the Middle East means fewer are available elsewhere (e.g., Taiwan).
• Global Stability: China, however, is wary of global chaos created by extensive, interconnected conflicts.

"If you're China and Russia and you're watching the US and Israel use a lot of these systems, it means that they have fewer systems to potentially defend Taiwan or...potentially going to be used in a conflict against you."
— Richard Engel ([13:10])

6. Continents of Conflict & Risks of Collapse

• Scale of War: 3,000 miles of active or smoldering war zones now stretch from Israel to the Indian border ([13:58]).
• Iran’s Prospects: Facing an "unwinnable" multi-front war, with proxies unable or unwilling to intervene.
• Possible Futures:
  • Iranian state collapse, potentially messy and fragmented along ethnic lines.
  • Regime hangs on and makes the war so costly that the US and allies seek a negotiated exit.
• Historical Parallels: Engel sees echoes of past state collapses, but the geostrategic scale is unprecedented.

"I've watched many states get into wars that they can't win and then collapse. But it doesn't mean they collapse neatly...It's very possible that...Iran collapses into pieces, that it descends into some sort of civil strife, that it breaks into ethnic regions."
— Richard Engel ([15:02])

7. The Uncertain Future

• Leadership Vacuum: With Khamenei dead, Iran is in succession crisis and Israel/US are targeting multiple layers of leadership ([16:55]).
• US/Israeli Strategy: Still unclear if there’s a plan for stable transition, or just a hope for spontaneous moderate emergence.
• Civilian Toll: Both sides suffering civilian casualties; war is unpredictable and gains its own momentum.

"Once you start dropping bombs, not only do civilians start getting killed, emotions get high, plans change, and wars develop their own momentum and their own dynamic."
— Richard Engel ([17:23])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On regime change risk:
  "It is a bit of a destroy, hope for a better day. And it is very, very risky." ([04:56])
• On failed diplomacy:
  "Old grievance met opportunity. Now there's war." ([07:50])
• On Israel’s power:
  "I've never seen Israel so militarily strong and unchallenged." ([09:46])
• On the global map of war:
  "...about 3,000 miles of continuous war zones. Not full war zones, but zones that are now pulled into conflict." ([13:27])
• On unpredictability:
  "No war goes according to plan." ([17:30])

Timestamps for Important Segments

• [00:02] – Introduction, description of breaking events and attack on Iran
• [02:09] – Q&A: Regime change models, risks, and historical comparisons
• [05:50] – Q&A: What caused this escalation and the breakdown of diplomacy
• [08:25] – Q&A: Israel’s newfound dominance and regional reactions
• [10:04] – Q&A: American and Israeli military integration
• [11:18] – Q&A: How Russia and China are responding strategically
• [14:02] – Q&A: Historical comparisons, possibility of Iranian collapse
• [16:37] – Q&A: What comes next, prospects for Iranian leadership and civilian impacts

Summary Takeaways

• The Middle East is at a tipping point after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader and a major US-Israeli offensive.
• The West is attempting an untested model of regime change—destroying Iran’s power structure from the outside without occupation, hoping for reform or collapse.
• Negotiations were ongoing but seized upon as opportunity due to Iran’s extreme vulnerability.
• Israel is more dominant militarily than ever, supported intimately by the US.
• Russia and China, while wary of instability, see strategic opportunities as US attention diverts.
• The future is highly uncertain: Iran may collapse, fragment, or drag the region into protracted chaos. Civilian suffering is already significant, and neither side seems able to dictate a clear outcome.

This episode delivers profound insights and sobering analysis on one of the most dangerous geopolitical crises in decades, setting the stage for ongoing podcast coverage as these world-shaping events continue to unfold.