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The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Ayatollah Khamenei killed: What next for The Middle East? Q&A with Richard Engel
00:20:22
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- [00:03]
A
Sky News, the full story. First, Donald Trump has said that the supreme Leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, is dead. A short time ago, the United States military began major combat operations in Iran. We are going to destroy their missiles and raise their missile industry to the ground. It will be totally, again, obliterated. Hello, everyone. Welcome to a bonus episode of the World. I'm Richard Engel and I am in Tel Aviv right now. Yalda is doing some reporting at the moment, but I could not miss this moment. This is an extraordinary time in the Middle East. It's an extraordinary time for the world. The United States and Israel have just launched a war with the goal of toppling the regime in Iran. Iran is fighting back, launching attacks against Israel, carrying out attacks against US Interests, and not only US Interests all across the Gulf region. We, we don't know exactly where this is going, but I definitely wanted to touch base with everyone, do this bonus episode. And very soon we're gonna do another full episode when Yalda is back, as soon as she's done with her reporting. So let's get started. We're a little different format today. We have two of our fantastic producers, and they're going to be asking me some questions. So they are new to this show. They are, I should say they're not new to this show. Their voices will be new to you and the show, but they are the backbone of this program. Liv and Philly, let's get started. Philly.
- [02:09]
B
So I have a question. President Trump has basically called for regime change in Iran, asking for people to get. Get up on the streets to basically take over. How is that possible? How would that work without troops on the ground?
- [02:25]
A
Well, you're starting with perhaps the most difficult question, because it is extraordinarily hard to do. Regime change of any kind is hard. Right. But there's really kind of three models of doing it. There is the model that the United States tried in Iraq and Afghanistan and brought a coalition with them, including the UK and other countries. And what that model was, attack the country, bring occupation forces, stay in the country that you're occupying, and try and manage a transition. The United States did that primarily. It was the US In Iraq and Afghanistan. And it appeared at times to be working. There was an election in Iraq held fairly soon after the American takeover of Baghdad. There was a new government put in place in. In Afghanistan after the Taliban were pushed out of power. But then this foreign occupation force got in. Both cases got caught up in a quagmire, and the situation became extraordinarily Expensive in terms of human lives, expensive in terms of resources created bad will, and both of these occupation projects ended up in disastrous failure. So there's one model there that has a proven very difficult and unsuccessful track record in recent history. The other model is that you bomb a country like what the US did in Venezuela, hoping not to have total regime change, but just have a leadership change. Because I don't know if you could even describe what happened in Venezuela as total regime change, because the vice president is now in charge, Delsey. And there's a lot of reporting and intelligence that the Venezuelans were in on it. They knew that the Americans were gonna come and remove the top of the pyramid and leave the rest of the structure in place. So regime change by making important, but few modifications right at the top, that's another model. But in this case, what it seems that the US Is trying to do and in Israel is destroyed and hope, destroy the regime, destroy the Iranian military capacity, destroy its naval capabilities, destroy its missile production facilities, destroy its leaders and hope that new people will rise to the, to the opportunity and take over power. But there has been no blueprint presented of how this is going to work. I can't think of a successful historic precedent, but the US Is doing this deliberate. I've spoken with people who were involved in this operation and they are doing this because they learned the lesson from Iraq and Afghanistan. They don't want to send in ground troops. President Trump doesn't want to send in ground troops. So they're trying it this way, destroy with the option, with the idea that maybe in this vacuum, the opposition, the people who are out on the streets in January, will sweep into power or perhaps the, the shah, his son comes to Iran and takes over. But it is a bit of a destroy, hope for a better day. And it is, it is very, very risky live.
- [05:50]
C
And my question is, I think a lot of people would have been reading the news and seeing the talks that were going on between the US And Iran. What happened? Why did it break down and then like, what actually led to this moment? Was there something that happened that, that made President Trump say, okay, now?
- [06:07]
A
Well, fantastic question, because this has happened twice now. And if you remember, there was a 12 day war during the summer. And in that case there were also negotiations. Iran and the United States were in the midst of talks. Oman, a small country in the Gulf, right next to Yemen, was the broker for these talks. They seemed to be going well. In fact, the Iranian foreign minister was carrying out an interview with a colleague of mine at NBC and then the attacks, the attacks began. That was last summer. Almost the same thing happened again. There was a round of negotiations. The Omanis were the mediators. They were reporting progress. Things seemed to be going well. They had scheduled a new round of, quote, unquote, technical talks. And then Israel and the United States launched this surprise attack, describing it as a preemptive strike. And President Trump then issued a video statement in which he said that the US had tried diplomacy, but it failed, that the Iranians weren't being serious about negotiations and that this was the only path forward because Iran presented an imminent threat to the world. And a lot of people I've been speaking to, analysts, people who've been covering this region for a long time. Again, people who are involved in this operation say it was more about an opportunity. It wasn't so much that the talks broke down, it. That there was the opportunity to do this. Old grievances, old grievance meant opportunity. And here the opportunity was that Iran is very weak. Iran was weakened by the 12 Day War. It was weakened because it lost its proxies. Hezbollah and Hamas and the Houthis have been weakened significantly. And it was weakened still further by domestic unrest. So I think it was old grievance met opportunity, and individuals matter. Prime Minister Netanyahu wanted this. He's made no secret that he's long wanted this. President Trump agreed to this. There's reporting now that Saudi Arabia was also pushing for this. But I think it's a. It's a simple formula of old grievance met opportunity. Now there's war. And where it's going is. Is. Is. Is really a head scratcher.
- [08:25]
B
Okay, I have a question. What about Israel? Is Israel stronger than ever with so many of its adversaries eliminated or gone from power?
- [08:37]
A
Yes, in a word. I've never seen Israel this powerful, this dominant in the Middle East. And that is something that. That frightens a lot of the Arab states generally now, especially since they've been attacked, the Arab states are angry with Iran. And it is Iran that is bombing Dubai and is bombing Kuwait and Qatar and Bahrain. And there's real frustration. But if you peel back the onion a little bit and you start talking to people and you go deeper into the subject, there is a real concern that Israel has become so powerful right now that Israel is trying with the United States to dictate terms and dominate the entire region. Israel with this alliance with President Trump, this partnership between Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump, a relationship which has been fraught at the times, sometimes the two men have been kind of insulting each other and sniping at each other, but generally they do seem to like each other. President Trump has come to Prime Minister Netanyahu's defense and Prime Minister Netanyahu goes out of his way to compliment President Trump with this alliance. Israel is, as far as I've seen, covering this region for about 25 years. I've never seen Israel so militarily strong and unchallenged.
- [10:04]
C
So who's leading the charge now? Is it Israel or America?
- [10:09]
A
It's a joint operation. And they have been working hand in Glove, these two militaries, since October 7th. They've been working hand in glove for many, many years. But really, after the October 7th massacre carried out by Hamas, the relations between US military and Israel became extraordinarily close because this isn't the first time that Israel and Iran have been trading strikes. After October 7, there were several rounds in which Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel and the Houthis were firing drones at Israel. And the United States was helping to defend this country and then joined in with Israel during the 12 Day War. It's such a close relationship that American military commanders were in the command centers, in the control rooms, working the operations together. So shoulder to shoulder cooperation in carrying out military strikes. So they are, I don't want to say they're one military, of course, they're two militaries, but they are working hand in glove.
- [11:18]
B
I have a question about Russia and China. How will they react to this?
- [11:24]
A
It's a great question because there's many ways to answer it. In one sense, Russia and China are happy that the US Is involved in a new conflict. It means from Russia's perspective that there's less military attention focused on Ukraine. It means that the US Is busy with a war that could end up taking a lot of American resources. Look at all the military hardware that has been pulled here. It means it's not elsewhere. So if you're assuming that China and Russia are strategic adversaries of the United States, when you watch your adversary get involved in an open ended war that has the potential to be very long and very costly and very complex, that's good news for you because it means less pressure on you, particularly I think, for China, because one of the main concerns that officials in the United States have been expressing is that the US has the potential to deplete some of its valuable missile defense systems. You know, we've seen all these missile defense systems in operation. The Patriots, the Thaads, the Iron Dome, which is a more localized system. But these are very sophisticated, very expensive missile interceptor systems, and they're not limitless. So if you're China and you're Russia and you're watching the US And Israel use a lot of these systems, it means that they have fewer systems to potentially defend Taiwan or that are potentially going to be used in a conflict against you. But that said, China also doesn't want a world that is in chaos. And right now, the world is in chaos. And I don't say that with. I don't tend to be a hyperbolic person, but just look at the map. I'm in Tel Aviv right now. So behind me is the Mediterranean Sea. I'm just a few feet from the beach here. And there was now war from Israel through Jordan all the way to India, because Afghanistan and Pakistan are now in an open war. So if you just look at the countries, it goes from Israel through Jordan, because Jordan's been attacked into Iraq, crossover into Iran. After Iran comes Afghanistan, then comes Pakistan. It's about 3,000 miles of continuous war zones. Not full war zones, but zones that are now pulled into conflict.
- [14:03]
C
You just said there that it feels like an incredibly dangerous time for the world. I mean, you've been covering wars in the Middle east for a long time. Does this feel like. Is this the biggest moment for you, or can you see comparisons with earlier times?
- [14:18]
A
I certainly can see comparisons because, you know, we might see the government of Tehran fall or Iran might fall to pieces. Iran is now in a fight that it is, you know, that is probably unwinnable from Iran's perspective. Iran is gonna be able to fight against the United States and Israel working together and all of the Gulf states at the same time without the same amount of proxies that they had before. And by the way, the proxies aren't stepping up to defend Iran. Hezbollah, which was badly diminished, hasn't been firing at Israel. Hamas hasn't gotten engaged. The Houthis haven't really been involved. So the few proxies that Iran has left aren't doing very much at this stage. So this is a extraordinarily difficult and perhaps unwinnable war for Iran. So we could see that Iran collapse. So I've seen parallels. To get back to your question, Liv, I've seen parallels because I've watched many states get into wars that they can't win and then collapse. But it doesn't mean they collapse neatly. It doesn't mean they collapse. Like we've seen those, you know, those buildings, you know, blow up in those controlled detonations, and they just all kind of go down into, into a perfect pile. It's very possible that, that the country that Iran collapses into pieces, that it descends into some sort of civil strife, that it breaks into ethnic regions. We don't know who exactly is going to come into, into power there, or perhaps the regime of holds on and the Iranian government is able to inflict so much pain in the region. And this seems to be Iran's strategy, that the United States and its allies sue for peace and say, okay, we've done enough. We're not going to do any more. Let's put the brakes on this and go back to negotiations. So, yes, I've seen states collapse, but I can't remember another time where you've had 3,000 miles of continuous war zones. That's just to the Indian border. And then there's also Russia and Ukraine. So if you really want to, you have a war that goes practically from one side of the globe to the other or, you know, half the hemisphere.
- [16:37]
C
I think the big question is, is what next? You know, they've got rid of the big name, but then what? Do they stick around and try and help Iran, you know, bring in a new power, or does President Trump turn around and leave in a few days? Like, what do you think? How does this play out?
- [16:56]
A
I wish. I know, I know we're going to be watching this, and that's why I'm here, is because I don't know. You know, if I knew, I wouldn't bother doing this job. I wouldn't bother, you know, being here. I don't know. But I'm watching this and I'm trying to figure it out in real time. And I'm glad people are listening as well and helping us try and figure this out. Oh, and by the way, people wrote in questions. I put out this appeal the other day, and now we're getting some real questions. So thank you for all that and I promise we will get to them. But a lot of questions are starting to come in, but I don't really know where this is going. Yes, the supreme leader of Iran, only the second supreme leader that country has had since 1979. Revolution has been killed. There is a succession crisis in Iran right now. Israel is continuing to target the secondary leaders, the third leaders, the fourth leaders. According to as we're speaking right now, according to Israeli officials, there have been about 40 senior officials killed in this joint U. S. Israeli operation. Who comes next goes back to what we were talking about right in the beginning is the US Strategy here and Israel's strategy here really smash and hope, or do they hope that there will be some sort of leader, someone who they're talking to within the Iranian system who can play this role, someone who can hold the state together, be acceptable to Iranians and have better relations with the West? I think that would probably be a safer outcome, a preferable outcome for many people's perspective. But so far that hasn't happened. So I think we're just going to have to watch and see how this goes. This is changing on a daily basis, and no war goes according to plan. I just came from a bomb site between Jerusalem and Tel Aviv in a town called Beit Shemesh, and there were nine people killed there as civilians in a Jewish community, an ultra Orthodox community, and they were civilians. And some of them were killed in their bomb shelter in Iran. A school was hit and this has also been confirmed. The death toll is unclear, but Iranians are talking about dozens of dozens of girls killed. So once you start dropping bombs, not only do civilians start getting killed, emotions get high, plans change, and wars develop their own momentum and their own dynamic. Once you take the sort of. Once you start down that road, it is very hard to end up at the destination where you thought you were going to go. Liv Philly, thank you so much for exposing your voices to all of our viewers for the very first time. And they're great questions. I really enjoyed this. There's going to be a lot more to talk about. Tune in for our regular podcast Back with Yalda, which we should have on schedule on Wednesday.