← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Can Europe survive without America?
00:37:07
The US has told Europe it needs to spend more on defence, while the EU appears to be sidelined from peace talks aimed at ending Russia's war in Ukraine. In this episode of The World, Richard and Yalda discuss the most significant foreign policy...
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- [00:00]
James Matthews
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House.
- [00:03]
Mark Stone
Together, we can truly make America great again. We are in for an unpredictable but fascinating four years.
- [00:10]
James Matthews
And we're going to be following every twist and turn for the first 100 days. We'll be bringing you the latest updates and analysis first thing every morning. So join me, James Matthews, me, Martha.
- [00:22]
Mark Stone
Calmick, and me, Mark Stone for Trump.
- [00:24]
James Matthews
100 every weekday at 6:00am, wherever you get your podcast.
- [00:43]
Yalda Hakim
Hello, and welcome to the world with me, Yalda. And I'm in London and good to see you, Richard. I just got back from the very.
- [00:52]
Mark Stone
Eventful Munich security conference and I am in Ukraine right now. As you can see, I'm in a gas station. Actually, I'm traveling in Ukraine. Use a lot of driving in this country, so I've stopped off on the side of the road so we could do this. And I'm here in Ukraine because right now, for the first time ever, there's a significant peace initiative underway by the Trump administration to try and end this war. And there are deep concerns here that this country is going to be divided up and that in dividing up this country, you're going to change the security balance all across Europe. So Ukraine is on the table. You were just at the Munich security conference where JD Vance dropped a bomb, basically saying that everything you know about European security is going to be rewritten. And you were in the room. So let's talk about that. Let's talk about Munich, let's talk about Ukraine and where all this is going.
- [01:48]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I mean, as you say, this really does feel like a massive moment. We're three years since the war in Ukraine began and then all of these comments that have been made in the past week by the Trump administration. Russia being brought back into the fold by the United States. They were hovering around somewhere, apparently in Munich, while all the leaders met at the Munich security conference. Huge conversations about the need to up European defence spending. So, lots to talk about this week.
- [02:20]
Mark Stone
And before we go any further, don't forget, subscribe to the podcast and please write in if you have any comments or questions to the world.
- [02:28]
Yalda Hakim
Sky.uk yeah, we love getting all of your questions. We've got a load of them this week, so we'll be going through those.
- [02:35]
Mark Stone
Well, let's get right into it.
- [02:54]
Yalda Hakim
And Richard, you know, when we were thinking about the name of this podcast, on the Road was one of the ones that was thrown around and you've literally been on the road all year. And frankly, I mean, I have too. But yeah, it's good to See you in Ukraine. It looks particularly cold. I don't know. I think it's your fleece making me feel cold.
- [03:13]
Mark Stone
It's minus 18 centigrade outside, so very, very cold. And if you stand out there, you know, for the first couple of minutes, you stand outside, you don't notice it. By the 3rd, 4th, 15th minute, you start to really, really shake. And it's, it's, it's cold. It's cold. And by the way, just to plug these, these gas stations that I'm, that I'm in. Not that, you know, they're. Not that they're, you know, we have any relationship with the commercial or otherwise. But throughout the war, since the beginning of this conflict three years ago, everything was shut down. The place was under attack. There were, you know, supply chains were, were disrupted. The, the. There's no airplanes in this country. So you do a lot of driving. You know, for the last three years. People might not realize that Ukraine is a big country. There are no planes here. Nothing is flying. So you drive around and these kind of gas stations with the little supermarket in them have been a lifeline for this country. They never closed. You can always get some sort of food, always get some sort of basic supplies, some electrical supplies, cables, batteries, et cetera. And they've been a vital part of this country. So when things break down, if your country breaks down into war, these little shops, the little gas stations might be what gets you through. But I'm dying to hear. So enough about the little grocery stores. I'm dying to hear about what you saw in Munich. Now to set it up. I've been to the Munich Security Conference a few times, and in previous podcasts we talked about, you know, Davos. What Davos is. It's like the big economic forum and in the, in the mountains and very ritzy and a lot of, you know, bankers and things. The Munich Security Conference is an annual event. It has its own crowd, but it is the kind of the, the prom, the annual big party for national security types. So current national security advisors, defense ministers, former national security advisors, defense ministers, journalists who cover national security affairs. So if you're into. Into issues of sort of world war and peace and geopolitics, this is your playground. And this year it was very different. So, so what was it like to be there?
- [05:18]
Yalda Hakim
I like to think of Munich as the burning man of foreign policy types. You know, it's. It's our community. It's where we go every year. As you say, it's the big problem.
- [05:29]
Mark Stone
But less, less Nakedness, A little bit less nakedness.
- [05:31]
Yalda Hakim
Well, although I would say Europeans probably felt naked this year. Okay. The way that they felt this sort of assault administration. Okay. So let's not forget over the course of the last week, a lot has been said. First of all, Donald Trump had this phone call with Vladimir Putin. Completely took the Europeans by surprise. They were quite shocked. They weren't quite sure where this was coming from. And suddenly Vladimir Putin is on the phone to Donald Trump. And then you had the US Secretary of State Pete Hegseth lecture the Europeans say, listen, these are the things. We're making preemptive concessions, unlikely that we're going to have NATO membership for Ukraine on the table, for example, unlikely that US Troops are going to be on the ground providing any security guarantees for the Europeans and for the Ukrainians. So a number of things that people saw as concessions that the United States were making. So don't forget, this is how Munich started. But I was actually moderating the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, chairman, just before J.D. vance's speech. Ursula von der Leyen Senior European Leader, her speech. I got a call from her people 24 hours before the security conference saying she's ripped up her speech, she's rewriting it because of course, on the back of the groundwork that Donald Trump and his Defense secretary Pete Hegseth had laid out. So her people said to me, just to tip off, she's going to be talking about European defense spending, the future of NATO and Ukraine. So she goes up on the stage, she's supposed to give a 12 minute speech. I'm backstage, I'm being mic'd up, and the organizers of Munich, incredibly tense, feeling incredibly nervous. J.D. vance is about to speak and Ursula von der Leyen is running late. And there's a whole conversation about JD Vance should not be held up. His team was saying he's been waiting in the speaker's room for 10 minutes. What's going on? We need J.D. vance on the stage. He's got a message to the European leaders. So we were rushed. My 20 minute conversation with Ursula von der Leyen suddenly got squeezed till about four minutes. I had to look at my sheet of paper, a sheet of paper that had about 20 minutes worth of questions. Condense it down to about three minutes.
- [07:54]
Mark Stone
Wait a second. So are you telling me that your. Her speech got bumped basically or shrunk because J.D. vance was in the green room getting anxious and he's like, I want to speak, I want to speak. So you had to say, hey, Keep this quick, because he's. He's waiting in the other room and he's getting impatient.
- [08:11]
Yalda Hakim
She didn't condense her speech. She finished her speech. But I was supposed to have 20 minutes on stage.
- [08:16]
Mark Stone
Your interaction with her?
- [08:17]
Yalda Hakim
My interaction with her was brought down to four minutes. And then so we came off the stage, I went backstage and I stood there with, with some of the Germans, the organizers of the Munich Security Conference. And we watched JD Vance give his speech. And, you know, initially he talked about the attack that had taken place at the Munich, in Munich the day before all the delegates arrived. So he, you know, said that he was very sorry about what had happened, and his thoughts were with those who were injured and hurt and with their families. And he got a massive round of applause and he sort of paused, laughed, and said, I hope this isn't the, the only applause I get, and then launched into his speech.
- [08:56]
Mark Stone
Let's have a listen to what Vance said, because I think the. It's a really significant development. I mean, let's not forget that NATO was established to stand up to the Soviet Union after World War II. You know, that World War II is the collapse of the old order in Europe. Soviet Union is encroaching, gobbling up states in Eastern Europe one at a time. And the Western powers wanted to prevent the sort of Soviet takeover of Europe in the, in the aftermath of World War II. So they established NATO. And, you know, people talk about how. Why Germany is unarmed and why, you know, Europe doesn't really have a large standing army is because World War II, when it was armed and when it was, and it did have large standing armies, we got into, you know, a period of global conflict. And it sounds like that President Trump and J.D. vance and the Trump kind of orbit are saying, we need to go back to that. We need to rethink this. That the fact that the Europeans have basically been living for free for the last 70 years or so, not spending very much on their militaries, relying on, on the United States and NATO needs to be changed, that we need to go back to what we had right after World War II, and that the Europeans have had it too, too good, too cheap for the last several decades. But let's hear specifically what he had to say.
- [10:16]
J.D. Vance
But while the Trump administration is very concerned with European security and believes that we can come to a reasonable settlement between Russia and Ukraine, and we also believe that it's important in the coming years for Europe to step up in a big way to provide for its own defense, the threat that I worry the most about vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor. And what I worry about is the threat from within.
- [10:46]
Mark Stone
I want to hear what the reaction was to that in the room internationally when people saw that, they're like. Because I spoke to a lot of people who are at the conference, I was not there, I was heading here. But the reaction was really, that's really what this administration sees as the biggest problem in the world right now, that Europe has not enough free speech and is too woke. And when we're talking about issues of NATO on the table and Russia and dividing Ukraine, that the biggest issue, the biggest beef that came with was to lecture Europe about crackdown on, on a, on a political party or not not allowing enough people to express themselves. And this has been a theme, as you were mentioning, that, that, that Elon Musk and others were, have been talking about on, on X and other places. And I think 60 Minutes at CBS just did a piece on this and it got a lot of reaction because in Europe, it happened in the uk it happened in Germany. There have been police actions taken against people who express non conventional thoughts. If they say something that is perceived to be against immigration, the police show up on their door at their doorstep. And there's been a lot of pushback against that. And I think that's probably a real issue. It's a real legitimate issue. But is that the biggest concern right now? Is that the world's real problem when you're talking about issues of, of, of war and peace and the sort of carving up of the, the post World War II world? Or is that a, a side issue that is kind of emotional to him, emotional to Trump and a, and a, and a kind of a, something you can dig into and, and maybe cause a diversion. I, I don't know what. So what did, what did, what did people. What was the reaction in the room when he starts going off on free speech and how the, the biggest issue with Europe is that they, you know, they crack down on far right parties.
- [12:43]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I mean, you know, just to answer Joey Joe, Joe's question on Instagram as well, which is exactly what you've just posed Richard, about what the reaction was on the ground. I mean, many felt, Europeans and Americans, that it was a missed opportunity here. This is the biggest security and foreign policy gathering of the year. And don't forget, Richard, as you say, I mean, for decades, you know, this community has come together in Munich to have conversations about the transatlantic relationship and for decades, they have argued, they've disagreed, they've agreed. But the feeling that I got speaking to European leaders was never have we had an attempt by our protector to weaken us. Never have we sort of been so publicly felt like we were under assault. And then to hear the fact that the Europeans very much feel sidelined by what's happening with the war in Ukraine, the negotiations that are currently taking place between Russia and the United States, they speak. The words I heard over and over again, Richard, was betrayal, appeasement and capitulation. This is, I think, how the Europeans summed up what was going on.
- [13:57]
Mark Stone
And it's funny, the Trump administration officials believe that they're being really strong. I think they would be. They would take great offense to those. That concept, what US appeasers. We're tough. He thinks he's being super tough. And he's telling Europe that Europe is a nanny collection of nanny states and they've got to get with the real world and grow a pair. And they felt just the opposite, that he was being weak and not standing with his allies.
- [14:28]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. And J.D. vance said, There's a new sheriff in town. And I think so many of the leaders who were giving speeches after J.D. vance apparently were rewriting, frantically rewriting their speeches to address what J.D. vance was saying. And this whole feeling around. We take issue with you commenting about our internal issues. We've got bigger security threats and concerns, and that's what you should be as our ally addressing. But defence spending, the need for NATO to. And NATO members to spend more and, you know, sort of do more when it comes to their defence spending, I think was a constant talking point. And that is something that Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, in my interview with her in her speech, raised as well, looking for ways to unlock those funds and up the spending. And I think, you know, one of the things that a German MEP said to me said, you know, Ursula von der Leyen, all these European leaders can talk all they want about Europe needing to up their defense spending, and we need to get serious about defense spending when it comes to Europe. Where are we going to get the money from? You know, we can talk all we want about it, but frankly, we've run the credit card during COVID and that bill is due very soon. So when we talk about needing to spend more, where are these member states going to get the funds from and what are the tangible things they need to do over the course of the next 12 months? I said to Ursula von der Leyen, every year for the past few years, when we've come to Munich, we've talked about getting serious about European defence spending. But why is it going to be different this time around? She said, we have no choice. And I said, okay, but what are the. Let's talk about substance. What are you going to do in the next 12 months? So when you come to Munich, you know, 12 months time from now, you can say we've done X, Y and Z to up our defense spending.
- [16:28]
Mark Stone
So I definitely want to talk about what I've been seeing and hearing here in Ukraine. But just to play devil's advocate, and as an American here, I can tell you that that position that the Europeans need to spend more for their own defense is very popular in the United States. You know, there's this impression that the US has limitless amounts of money and can, you know, deploy its army wherever it wants at a moment's notice and has all these aircraft carriers. And most Americans live pretty badly. And I think, you know, just look at this recent inflation crisis over eggs. You know, people are really struggling in the United States. And I think President Trump was able to win in part because he was able to tap into that anger. So when the Europeans, who generally live pretty well, you know, if you look at they have more vacation Americans, do they live better, they eat, certainly better. When most Americans hear them rubbing their hands together and say, oh, we don't have any money to fund our own armies, the average American reaction is, well, that's not my problem. You've been living very well. You've had NATO, which is largely funded by the United States, providing your security for decades. This isn't really our problem anymore. That's a pretty common view in the United States.
- [17:40]
Yalda Hakim
And frankly, Trump is not the only US Leader who's raised this. We've been hearing for a long time. President Obama was talking about upping defense spending. Biden said the same thing. Trump, the first time round, said this as well. And I said this to Ursula von der Leyen. I said, help us understand why Europe finds this so hard. We are 11 years since Russia annexed Crimea. We are eight years since Trump won. When he first raised this with you in a very serious way, we're three years since the full scale invasion. Why haven't you done more in the space of this time?
- [18:18]
Mark Stone
And what was with the tears that you were there? One of the chairmen or a serious guy in the Munich conference started crying in his closing speech.
- [18:28]
Yalda Hakim
Oh, I didn't see that. No.
- [18:30]
Mark Stone
Yes, he started crying and shedding tears and I think looking back or from the outside in a lot of people, like what is wrong with them? They're, they're crying at the podium over here.
- [18:40]
Yalda Hakim
I think what happened after the Jade, the room was full during JD Vance and after that, other than say Zelensky, I didn't see the room packed out again. There were people huddled in different parts. There was a Politico pub where the congressional delegation was hanging out. There were, I bumped into the Ukrainian Defence Minister, Rustem Umarov, having a small bilateral. I mean you were literally bumping into defence ministers, world leaders, national security types absolutely everywhere. What remains at the Munich Security Conference is the schnitzel, the tiki bar, the, the, the huddled groups of people. But the tone was extremely different this year.
- [19:21]
Mark Stone
So they had a collective freak out. There was panic, but no particular answers of what they're going to do other.
- [19:26]
Yalda Hakim
Than saying they're going to up defense spending. But I'm not sure in 12 months.
- [19:30]
Mark Stone
Time or deploy potential peacekeepers here in a piecemeal basis. But maybe the UK will send some if it can get that passed. But that there's no collective action.
- [19:38]
Yalda Hakim
No, I mean we can see the summits that they're having. The Europeans completely left out. So the US and Russia meeting in Riyadh to have that conversation about the future of Ukraine, Ukraine not invited. The Europeans completely sidelined. And I put that again to Ursula von der Leyen. She looked at me in the eyes and she said, absolutely, we'll be on the table. But I mean, you haven't been invited yet.
- [20:01]
Mark Stone
So I think that's a good pivot to talking about Ukraine a little bit. Because all of this in theory was about Ukraine. Right. So it was a, the security conference was about NATO, which also is related to Ukraine. So what we've been seeing here is the Ukrainians are watching this process start and they're watching President Trump first talk to Putin, reaching out to him first and having this conversation. 90 minute phone call, sending Steve Witkoff, who had three and a half hours with Putin according to Fox and according to Trump himself, that they, that this meeting took place. So Trump sends his envoy, they have a long meeting with Putin, he talks to Putin and then the talks begin in, in, in Saudi Arabia with a large delegation of Trump's, you know, closest inner circle and starts with, with the Russians and the Ukrainians aren't invited. You can imagine how they see that here. And there's an old expression, y'all, I'm sure you've heard of it in, in diplomacy. If you're not at the table, you're on the table. And I mentioned that to a serious, a top official in this country. And he said to me, exactly, that's exactly how we feel. And actually, he said we have an expression in Ukrainian that is similar. And he sort of traded my expression for one of his own. And he said there's an expression, and I don't know how it is in Ukrainian, but he translated for me, in every deal, there's a winner and there's a loser, and if you don't know who it is, you're not the winner. And that's the way they're feeling here.
- [21:35]
Yalda Hakim
Of course, Richard, you're there on the ground. And I want to hear more about the conversations you're having with some of these generals. We'll be back right after this break.
- [21:54]
James Matthews
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House.
- [21:57]
Mark Stone
Together we can truly make America great again. We are in for an unpredictable but fascinating four years.
- [22:04]
James Matthews
And we're going to be following every twist and turn for the first 100 days. We'll be bringing you the latest updates and analysis first thing every morning. So join me, James Matthews, me, Martha.
- [22:16]
Mark Stone
Calneck, and me, Mark Stone for Trump.
- [22:18]
James Matthews
100 every week day at 6am wherever you get your podcast.
- [22:34]
Mark Stone
All right. Welcome back. So as, as I was saying, we are now in transit. We're on our way. That's why I'm at this sort of odd little gas station stop. We're on our way to another city in, in eastern Ukraine. But we just came from the city of the Kherson. I don't know if you've been to Kherson. It's sort of in the south. It's a very rough place right now. The Russians attack it all the time with missiles, with artillery, with mortars, because the Russian troops are stationed very, very close by and increasingly with drones. And drones are a game changer in this war because they're very cheap. You can use them all the time. So they're firing on Kherson constantly. So we were in Kherson and we went to a, an event. It was a Valentine's, a belated Valentine's Day party that some or that some volunteers were organizing for the kids. And it was in a shelter. So we go down into this building, into this shelter, and there's all these hearts and decorations on the wall and it's fold with packed with kids, maybe some little kids, 2, 3 year olds and then all a couple of babies. But most of them were probably 6, 8, 10 years old. They were all having a great time. And I spoke to some of the children and some of the organizers. They were saying, for three years they've been in basements, three years they've been in bunkers. Three years they've been living on handouts. Of course they want the war to end. Of course they want to be able to go back outside and go to school and socialize. But they are watching this happening, and they're watching these meetings happening with the Trump administration prioritizing Russia. And they're worried that they're being chopped up, that right now that they're in a weaker position and that they're on the table and that, you know, they're not at the table, they're on it, and that there's going to be the losers in this. And if you look at the map, and Russia currently has about 20% of Ukrainian territory in the south, around Kherson and around in the east, where I am right now. And the Ukrainians are worried that Putin and is going to get this territory, that Trump is just going to give it to him, say, here, it's yours. And the Ukrainians haven't been able to take it back by themselves on their own. And what they're worried is that that's going to be the end of it, that they're not going to get security guarantees. What they say is, okay, if we have to lose this territory, why are you. Why do you keep asking us how much are we willing to give? We don't want to give anything. This was stolen from us by Russia. So why are you asking us what we are willing to give? Ask the thief who stole the territory how much he's willing to accept before he keeps trying steal more. But the Ukrainians will say, okay, if we have no choice but to surrender some more of this territory, then at least give us security guarantees so that Putin's not going to come in in a year or two or three and take even more. And what happened in Munich and leading up to Munich is preemptively, Pete Hetsev said no, well, NATO membership is off the cards. And that territory, yeah, you probably are going to have to give that away. So Ukrainians are like, so what are we going to do? We're going to be carved up. We're not going to have any security guarantees, NATO or otherwise. And now you have, you know, Europe kind of wringing its hand, saying, whoa, the US Isn't going to do it. What are we supposed to do? So here in Ukraine, you feel very much alone and on the Table and you're about to be carved up.
- [25:56]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. And they frankly should be feeling that because they very much could be betrayed in these negotiations and, you know, thrown under the bus the way the Vietnamese were, the way that the Afghans were. And now this administration, I mean, the last administration, the abandonment of Afghanistan, that could be this administration's Afghanistan, where we see Donald Trump carving something up, deciding with Russia, getting Europe to foot the bill, send the troops out and deal with it themselves, and then shift their focus. So the Ukrainians, frankly, have reason to feel so concerned about their future and what that means. And Richard, you know, at Munich, I spoke to the Estonian foreign minister on air and he said to me, this isn't about carving up Ukraine. This isn't about the Russians wanting part of Ukraine. We are all worried in Europe about where, you know, Russia's ambitions will end if they are just given Ukraine, what next?
- [26:59]
Mark Stone
And that's why this is so big. And that's why I was talking about what's really at stake here is the future of this post war World War II order. Because if that system is torn up, Putin is very happy. Putin is very happy. This has been his biggest issue since the collapse of the Soviet Union and even before. And if he can get rid of that, change the rules, change the order, make it much more transactional where he can make a deal with, with President Trump. Nobody here believes, and nobody sounds like in Europe believes that what Trump and Putin are talking about is only Ukraine, that this is a much bigger deal making endeavor, that he's a deal maker. And he, President Trump, you know, always prides himself on that. And the White House is always saying he's the best dealmaker in the world. That's being a dealmaker is different than being a peacemaker. A deal maker means you swap things. I want this, you want that. And what Ukrainians are worried that they're getting swapped. And Europeans are saying, well, if Ukraine is being swapped, then the whole order that has kind of kept peace on the continent and beyond for the last seven decades or so is in play. And Putin is very happy because now he can sort of carve out his sphere of influence.
- [28:17]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. And don't forget, I mean, you know, the Biden motto. Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine. And I sort of think about that at the moment, moment, because Ukraine is not at the table, its interests are not being taken into consideration. And I guess, you know, for, for allies and, and countries like Ukraine, they're sort of thinking every time there's a new administration in the United States policy can just change overnight. One minute we've got a policy where we're told nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, and the next minute we're not at the table. So it is a tense time for Ukraine and Europeans.
- [28:52]
Mark Stone
That said, Trump administration is sending an envoy here and they say, oh, you know, let's just say what the position, official position is. They say we're talking with the Russians first and then we're going to talk to Ukrainians separately. And then at some later, you know, stage, we'll bring everybody together and have a big, big deal. But here it feels like, and not just here, many people have said it seems like President Trump is prioritizing the talks with Russia, wants to do a deal with, with Putin, a global deal. And you know, what happens to Ukraine is not really his problem. It's not really America's problem. If Europe is so concerned, let them deal with it. And he wants to move on to other things. But the consequences of that is a new world order in which the US as you, as you say, its promises, its commitments mean very little.
- [29:40]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. So I guess you're in Ukraine, Richard, for the next couple of weeks. We're coming up to the three year anniversary, which is one of the reasons why you're there. You're traveling across the country and you'll give us a sense over the next couple of weeks on the podcast, you know, what you've seen, who you've spoken to, what you've heard. So significant in this moment. But what's your prediction?
- [30:04]
Mark Stone
Well, yes, we're traveling around, driving all over the place. As I was saying, you know, there's a lot of driving in Ukraine, a lot of gas stations, a lot of moving, a lot of cities. It's a big, big flat country, beautiful country, love, lovely people, but a lot, a lot on the road. And we're trying to hear from as many people as we possibly can. Government officials, soldier children in a shelter. I think the prediction here is going to get carved up. I mean, I think it's happening, it's happening quickly. And they want security guarantees. I'm not sure they're going to get them. I think they might get Trump's word. He's not going to give them NATO. They've already made that quite clear. And giving them NATO membership could be problematic because the country is currently at war. And in a collective agreement, if one country's at war, everybody's at war. So if a country comes in and it's already at war, that could be very dangerous for NATO. And I think the Trump administration has made it pretty clear they're not. Are they going to get any other kind of security guarantee that's meaningful? Maybe, maybe not. That's what they're pushing for. And I think that's what this whole deal centers on right now, security guarantees. My prediction is they're not going to get any. They're going to get Trump's word. I've spoken to President Putin. You got it. You got it. Take my word for it. He's not going to invade again, and maybe he won't for a little while until he's ready. And that's what Europeans, the Baltic states are very concerned about, Ukrainians are very concerned about. But that's my guess, he offers them his word, some sort of Pax Trumpianus, and that's about it.
- [31:42]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I mean, for me, I have also spent time talking to Asian leaders, and I spoke to the Filipino foreign foreign minister just yesterday, and I said to him, how's it going? And he said, I spoke to, you know, Marco Rubio just a few days ago. They've given us assurances, you know, they're concerned about what's happening in the South China Sea. They said they've got our, our back and we're going to be talking about our own security agreements and cooperation and partnership with them. So I think at this point in time, Asian countries that have alliances with the United States probably think, okay, the has shifted towards us, just as the Trump administration said it would, and move away from Europe and Ukraine. But there is nervousness there as well, because my prediction is that these Asian leaders are sort of rethinking their positions with the United States as well, because they're thinking, well, in some kind of negotiation with China, at some point, could we be thrown under the bus the way that the Ukrainians were?
- [32:47]
Mark Stone
Everybody's watching. Everybody's watching. Taiwan, China, if you're carving out sphere of influences and you're making deals, okay, Russia, you get to keep 20% of this, and you get 20 if you, if you, if we're suddenly in a world, a world, like I say, which Putin really appreciates, because it's not the world of the NATO alliances that has been a problem for the Soviet Union since NATO was established. But if it's a world of transactional deals, you get this, we get that. Yeah, everybody's watching. And China wouldn't mind playing that game either. Neither would Saudi Arabia, by the way, which is hosting the summit. Saudi Arabia has its own plans for more of a bigger role in the Middle east. As well. But before you go, why don't we do a little lightning round? We got a couple of questions we didn't get to. So here's one I've got in front from Chris Lovett. Is this the biggest test NATO has ever faced as an alliance from its own members?
- [33:38]
Yalda Hakim
I mean, I think that we, as we've talked about, you know, over the decades they've had moments where they've been disagreements and they've been arguments about things. And several years ago the NATO Secretary General said that the biggest threat against NATO was Russia. And I think what' extraordinary is, you know, the threat of Russia was what they highlighted since the Second World War was what was seen as a big sort of threat against nature.
- [34:04]
Mark Stone
But Yandel, you got it all wrong. According to JD Vance, the biggest threat to Europe is the fact that they don't let the far right parties participate in German politics and they have woke laws that limit the media. You don't know that. Well, wokeism is the biggest problem in Europe, not Russia, not the alignment of global politics here.
- [34:24]
Yalda Hakim
I mean, I'm quoting Jens Stoltenberg from a few years ago who said that Russia posed the biggest threat against NATO since the Second World War. And it's interesting, that was straight after the invasion of Ukraine that today the issue of Russia and how this war is going to end continues to be the biggest threat against this alliance.
- [34:47]
Mark Stone
Matt Noneman, how do Ukrainian citizens feel about Trump pullbacks? We talked about that. They feel like they want peace, that they don't want to be divided into pieces. And the other one that I've got in front of me here is from Ian Winter comedy. Is Trump trying to align Russia with the US against the big threat of China? And hold on, I'm not sure if I understand this word.
- [35:11]
Yalda Hakim
Is Trump trying to align Russia with the US against the big threat China as Europe are weak? I think maybe that's two thoughts in one. But basically trying to say forming an alliance with Russia against the threat of China. I mean we've spoken about the axis, the so called axis of resistance that's been formed, the partnership between Iran, North Korea, China and Russia, certainly between Russia and China. They've said that.
- [35:38]
Mark Stone
Is that what they think they're doing? That they are going to make an alliance with Russia in order against China. Is that, is that you think that's what they're trying to do?
- [35:47]
Yalda Hakim
I mean, I think that's what the question is asking. But I think, you know, the partnership that China and Russia have formed, they have said that there is no sort of limitations in our friendship. I think they said it a couple of years ago. So, you know, does Trump think he's creating some kind of wedge between Russia and China? He certainly said, look, we're going to reinvite you back into the G7.
- [36:15]
Mark Stone
I don't exactly see that one. I mean, China and Russia are really tight really now, and they've, they sell a lot of gas to China. You know, this war has allowed, because it's, it's been a, you know, very costly war for Russia. It has allowed China to establish a degree of dominance over Russia. So maybe, maybe if you, the US Forms an alliance with Putin, it helps Putin declare some autonomy or create some space between him and China or he just gets played. You just give Putin what he wants and he still keeps his relations and his gas deals with China.
- [36:50]
Yalda Hakim
I can imagine the Russians and the Americans, their conversations weren't just centered around Ukraine when they met. I'm sure they had a whole host of other issues that they were going to be talking about.
- [37:03]
Mark Stone
Well, Yalda, always fantastic to speak to you. I'll join you from another location, I suspect in Ukraine. Maybe it won't be a gas station this time. We'll see where it is. And thank you and goodbye to all of our, our fantastic listeners. And thank you. People are writing in more. I think we're getting a little traction out there and people are starting to really enjoy this as I am. So thank you, Yalda, and thank you to all those who are listening.
- [37:28]
Yalda Hakim
Richard, stay safe and we'll keep in touch with you. And thanks so much to our listeners for listening and sending in their questions. Of course, you can continue to send your thoughts to us@theworldky.uk we love getting your questions, but goodbye for now and.
- [37:49]
Mark Stone
Subscribe and tell your friends. Bye.
- [38:07]
James Matthews
Donald Trump is heading back to the White House.
- [38:10]
Mark Stone
Together we can truly make America great again. We are in for an unpredictable but fascinating four years and we're going to.
- [38:17]
James Matthews
Be following every twist and turn for the first 100 days. We'll be bringing you the latest updates and analysis first thing every morning. So join me, James Matthews, me, Martha.
- [38:28]
Mark Stone
Calnick and me, Mark Stone for Trump.
- [38:31]
James Matthews
100 every weekday at 6:00am, wherever you get your podcasts.