Former MI6 Chief Sir Alex Younger on Russia, Syria and Cyberwarfare

Summary

Podcast Summary: "Former MI6 Chief Sir Alex Younger on Russia, Syria and Cyberwarfare"

Podcast Information:

• Title: The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
• Hosts: Richard Engel (NBC) and Yalda Hakim (Sky News)
• Episode: Featuring Former MI6 Chief Sir Alex Younger
• Release Date: December 4, 2024

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Introduction

In this episode of "The World," Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim delve into pressing global issues, focusing primarily on the tumultuous developments in Syria and Ukraine. The discussion is enriched by insights from their special guest, Sir Alex Younger, former head of MI6, who brings over three decades of intelligence experience to the conversation.

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Syria: Rebel Offensive in Aleppo

The episode opens with breaking news from Syria, where anti-government rebel forces have swiftly seized control of Aleppo, the country's second-largest city. Richard Engel highlights the rapid progression of the rebels' offensive:

Richard Engel [00:31]: "The big news this week comes out of Syria. Anti-government rebel forces have seized the country's second largest city, Aleppo."

Sir Alex Younger provides historical context, tracing the roots of the conflict back to the Arab Spring a decade ago. He explains how the civil war in Syria had been largely frozen for several years until recent developments reignited hostilities:

Sir Alex Younger [02:29]: "The rebels advanced on Aleppo over the last few days, but without understanding the context, that doesn't really mean anything... The civil war was more or less frozen for about four years. And now the Syrian regime, with help from Russia, is fighting back."

The swift takeover by rebels, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), contrasts sharply with Assad's prolonged efforts to retake Aleppo, which took four years previously. Richard notes the implications of Assad's vulnerability due to weakened Iranian proxies and Russia's distractions with the Ukraine conflict:

Richard Engel [04:00]: "Bashar al Assad is vulnerable. We're seeing the Iranian empire as we know it, crumble... The Russians are preoccupied somewhere else in the war with Ukraine."

Concerns are raised about the potential destruction of Aleppo and the impact on its rich cultural heritage:

Sir Alex Younger [07:46]: "I worry that Aleppo is going to get smashed in all of this and it's yet another crime to happen against the people and the culture of the Middle East."

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Ukraine: NATO Membership and Ongoing Conflict

Transitioning to Ukraine, the hosts discuss President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's recent statements about NATO membership as a potential endgame for the conflict with Russia. Zelensky proposes that bringing Ukrainian-controlled territories under NATO's protection could pave the way for diplomatic negotiations:

Yalda Hakim [10:01]: "If we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control."

Sir Alex questions the feasibility of Ukraine's NATO membership, recalling historical hesitations from Western leaders:

Sir Alex Younger [12:28]: "Did the United States ever, or were NATO as a bloc, ever serious about offering membership to Ukraine? I kind of doubt it."

Richard Engel emphasizes the longstanding uncertainty surrounding Ukraine's NATO aspirations:

Richard Engel [12:39]: "The big question is then, with Zelensky putting this on the table... Either Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accepted that he's lost territory or he's playing the long game."

Yalda and Richard analyze Putin's objectives, suggesting that his actions aim to undermine Ukraine's sovereignty rather than merely claiming territory:

Yalda Hakim [31:05]: "Putin is going for Ukraine to be a non-country. That's going to be the deal."

Sir Alex adds skepticism about the current prospects for a ceasefire contingent on NATO membership:

Sir Alex Younger [11:45]: "That's a no, I take it."

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Interview with Sir Alex Younger: Insights from MI6

Introducing Sir Alex Younger

The conversation shifts to a detailed interview with Sir Alex Younger, offering listeners a deep dive into intelligence operations and contemporary security challenges.

MI6's Role and Evolution

Sir Alex elucidates the primary functions of MI6, emphasizing human intelligence and the cultivation of relationships across diverse cultures:

Sir Alex Younger [15:56]: "Fundamentally, we're a human intelligence organization... it's all about the development of human relationships."

He reflects on how post-9/11 realities transformed intelligence work, integrating international partnerships to disrupt emerging threats:

Yalda Hakim [16:59]: "After 9/11, the nature of our work changed significantly... the predominant dimension was international partnership working in concert to disrupt what we had uncovered."

Pre-emptive Intelligence and Western Solidarity

Discussing intelligence related to Putin's invasion of Ukraine, Yalda highlights the role of "pre-bunking" through the Five Eyes alliance:

Yalda Hakim [18:57]: "West reported extensively on Putin's plans, which, while not preventing the invasion, set the stage for unprecedented Western solidarity."

Sir Alex criticizes past intelligence failures but acknowledges the unique circumstances surrounding the Ukraine invasion:

Sir Alex Younger [20:26]: "I'm shocked that President Zelenskyy didn't think it was going to happen... They don't just put all these troops on the border and keep them there."

Assessing Syria's Complex Landscape

The discussion returns to Syria, with Sir Alex expressing concern over the potential resurgence of conflict and the re-emergence of extremist groups if international support wanes:

Sir Alex Younger [27:34]: "If there’s a collapse, we might see some of these very dangerous terrorists who remain in some of these prisons come out, and... turn into a safe haven."

Yalda warns against western complacency, stressing the importance of maintaining support to prevent a Taliban-like resurgence:

Yalda Hakim [28:12]: "Western terrorism policy was successful but shall never be complete without retaining the capacity to influence events in the region."

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Hybrid Warfare and Cyber Threats

Exploring the shadowy realms of hybrid warfare, the hosts address the escalating use of cyberattacks and information warfare by Russia:

Yalda Hakim [32:59]: "Russia applies all organs of state power against defined national security objectives, regardless of whether you're at peace or at war."

The vulnerability of critical infrastructure, such as fiber optic cables in the UK, is a focal point:

Sir Alex Younger [34:43]: "Russia has a documented program to find those cables and cut them. It's such a simple thing. It's easy to do. We can't defend them."

Yalda emphasizes the challenges Western democracies face in responding to such covert operations due to legal and cultural constraints:

Yalda Hakim [36:34]: "We lack any serious legal instruments to allow us to act in response to this. And culturally, I don't think we're ready."

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Predictions and Future Outlook

In the predictive segment, Yalda modestly forecasts the arrival of Christmas, while Sir Alex speculates on potential military actions in Syria:

Sir Alex Younger [43:13]: "If I were working in a hospital in Aleppo now... I would expect the Russians are going to flatten Aleppo."

Yalda projects strategic shifts in Iran, anticipating maximum pressure combined with attempts to alter Iran's foreign policy direction:

Yalda Hakim [46:24]: "Iran's proxies are useless, their missiles don't work, and half the population hates their own government. They will be looking for ways to reduce the risk."

She also underscores the ongoing threat of ISIS resurgence if Western support dwindles:

Yalda Hakim [28:12]: "If Western forces draw down their presence, a resurgence of ISIS could lead to dangerous developments."

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Conclusion

The episode concludes with reflections on national security, emphasizing the West's internal challenges in maintaining resilience and public confidence:

Yalda Hakim [39:35]: "We've lost faith in our leaders, we've lost faith in our democracy, and we are allowing ourselves frequently to be manipulated."

Sir Alex reiterates the importance of societal resolve and cultural resilience in countering external threats, suggesting that internal weaknesses could undermine even the most robust intelligence efforts:

Sir Alex Younger [51:22]: "If you don't have resolve and resilience, you're not going to get far as a culture and as a society."

Richard Engel wraps up the discussion, appreciating Sir Alex's profound insights and underscoring the interconnected nature of global conflicts.

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This comprehensive episode offers listeners a nuanced understanding of the intricate geopolitical dynamics shaping Syria and Ukraine, complemented by expert analysis from a seasoned intelligence leader. The conversation underscores the imperative for sustained international collaboration and internal societal strength to navigate the complex challenges of modern warfare and hybrid threats.

Transcript

[Yalda Hakim]

The thing I think I like most about being a spy, though, is that it's quite sort of mischievous.

[Richard Engel]

Hello, and welcome to the world with me, Yalda. And I'm in London this week.

[Sir Alex Younger]

And me, Richard Engel, I am in Lisbon, back with my family. And for our American listeners, that might not be surprising because it was just Thanksgiving, so I came back to Portugal. But I'm on my way out the door soon.

[Richard Engel]

Happy Thanksgiving, Richard. It's one of my favorite holidays. Well, lots to talk about this week. I hope you're well rested after your trip to Ukraine. And we'll be talking a little bit more about that this week. But first, of course, the big news this week comes out of Syria. Anti government rebel forces have seized the country's second largest city, Aleppo. And we should bring everyone up to speed about why that is so important and critical, but also why the rebels have launched it, this offensive.

[Sir Alex Younger]

At this moment, everything in the world is interconnected as it is in Ukraine. And we're going to talk about Ukraine some more because President Zelensky, in an interview with sky has basically just outlined his bargaining position when it comes to sitting down with Vladimir Putin.

[Richard Engel]

And then we have a very exciting guest in the second half of the show. We'll be talking to the former head of MI6, Sir Alex Younger, on the the program.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Yeah, fascinating guy. Look forward to that. And please follow us wherever you're listening and go subscribe to our YouTube channel and leave us a comment or write to us directly at the WorldKY UK. The WorldKY UK.

[Richard Engel]

So, Richard, as we were saying there, the big news this week out of Syria, it's quite incredible, actually, how quickly things suddenly moved. Let's bring everyone up to speed and tell them what's been going on. So do you want to just give us a recap of the events of the last few days?

[Sir Alex Younger]

Of the last few days, because you understand Syria, you have to go back a little. I'm taking my glasses off. I'm settling in. So what happened was, well, Can I start 10 years ago?

[Richard Engel]

Can I start 10 years ago? Actually, I think it's important you put into context, start 10 years ago and I'll pick up as well, because otherwise.

[Sir Alex Younger]

The rebels advanced on Aleppo over the last few days, but without understanding the context, that doesn't really mean anything. So there was a war started out during the middle of the Arab Spring, sort of toward the later half of the Arab Spring, as the revolutions were moving from Tunisia to Egypt and jumping all around the region. It went. The Arab Spring movement went to Syria and died there. And there was a horrendous civil war that is still going on, but it had been on hold for a long time. We hadn't been talking about Syria. The civil war was more or less frozen for about four years. And then a group of rebels, led by some hardcore Islamists, but not only Islamists, moved into the city of Aleppo, which is a fabulous, historic, beautiful city. I've had the privilege of going there quite a few times. And it has wonderful food and back streets and think. Think like Arabian Nights, little, you know, alleys and warrens of a wonderful jewel box of a city. And they went in there and took it over. There was no fighting. The government fled. The government, all the government forces fled. They took over the citadel, they took over military bases, they over the airport. They took over everything. And now the Syrian regime, with help from Russia, is fighting back.

[Richard Engel]

And I think this moment was because, frankly, Bashar al Assad is vulnerable. We're seeing the Iranian empire as we know it, crumble. Its proxies have weakened, and groups like Hezbollah have become decapitated. The Russians are preoccupied somewhere else in the war with Ukraine. And sure, they've come back and they've spent the last couple of days trying to smash the rebel group. And as you say, this rebel group sort of started off. I remember even in the early years, people like Senator John McCain taking pictures with some of these rebel groups and talking about them being the potential sort of movement that the west and the Americans should be supporting in those early days against Bashar al Assad, who'd launched this, you know, crackdown on his own civilians. And it turned into very quickly a civil war in the country.

[Sir Alex Younger]

When I talk to people about Syria, I sometimes see their eyes glaze over because it is so complicated. The Arab Spring happens, jumps from place to place to place. It started out as a rebel movement that was quite pro democracy, and they had a lot of support, and they thought they had support from President Obama. And President Obama wrote these important speeches, and there's a red line. If we see any chemical weapons used, that would be a red line for the United States. And then what happened? That red line was crossed repeatedly, and the rebels there rotted. There was a moral collapse. And I saw it happen. I saw it happen in front of me that we were with these rebels, and they were so excited that the help was coming, and they were just going to. They were going to get the same kind of support they saw in Libya. They were going to get the same side of support that the Sort of protesters got in Tahrir Square instead. They were left hung out to dry. They were chemical weapons used against them. Nothing happened. The red lines from the Americans proved to be useless. So who did they turn to? They turned to these hardcore Islamists because they figured these people could be trusted. These people will keep their word. They believe in God. They were so hopeless, the movement was so hopeless and bankrupt that they took whatever offer they could get that they thought they could trust, and it turned out to be disastrous. And you had two movements come out of this chaos. One was isis, which we've heard about a lot.

[Richard Engel]

We heard about a lot. Correct.

[Sir Alex Younger]

And the other was, it was originally Al Qaeda, then it was called Al Nusra Front. And then the Al Nusra Front rebranded itself, calling itself the Ayat Tahrir Al Shab, the Popular Liberation Front. And then this group, this Popular Liberation Front, with the help of a few other miscellaneous rebel groups that were still kind of hanging around, took advantage of this opportunity when Hezbollah was incredibly weakened and did this lightning strike into Aleppo. And wow, the civil war is back on again in Syria. So that's more or less what happened is you had this 10 year, decade long conflict that had been frozen. Events in Lebanon unlocked it, and now that conflict is back in full swing and the rebels made this surprise dissent and took, took this important city unopposed.

[Richard Engel]

It's quite something when you think about it, Richard, how quickly it moved because it took Bashar Al Assad, the dictator in Syria, four years to take back Aleppo from rebels. And it literally took them about four days to take it back.

[Sir Alex Younger]

I worry that Aleppo is going to get smashed in all of this and it's yet another crime to happen against the people and the culture of the Middle East.

[Richard Engel]

Let's talk a little bit about Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, hts, because as you say, hts, you know, for years we heard about the Al Nusra Front and how they were dominating the battlefield and ISIS was on the other side and they were rivals and they were, I mean, brutal, brutal terrorist organization. And they had. HTS had also been put on a terror watch list and remains on that watch list. But they are trying to rebrand themselves, aren't they?

[Sir Alex Younger]

100%. And when they went into Aleppo, they rebranded themselves again because they didn't go in just themselves brandishing Islamic flags. They went in with other more secular rebel groups and tried to make it look like a united front. And the overall commander of this group, his name is Golani, issued orders saying, chill out everybody, okay? Don't go house to house. We're not going to be beating people, we're not going to be bothering the people of Aleppo. So they're not going to roll in like Taliban in the 90s and start forcing Islamism on people. Not as of now, right now, because they're actively trying to rebrand.

[Richard Engel]

I think Western intelligence agencies are watching very carefully to see how things develop in Aleppo and beyond, whether these rebels are able to move quickly. But I think what this tells us is these conflicts may not be making headlines, we may not be talking about them, but they don't just go away.

[Sir Alex Younger]

No, they do not.

[Richard Engel]

Vladimir Put came to Bashar Al Assad's rescue in 2015. Can he do the same now? Well, frankly, he is preoccupied now. For the last two and a half, almost three years in Ukraine, we've been talking a lot about Ukraine. In the last few days, we've had an interview here at Sky News with Volodymyr Zelensky. And you can start to see and hear him making certain concessions as well, can't we, Richard? I mean, let's just have a listen to what he's had to say and then we'll provide some analysis.

[Yalda Hakim]

And here we must not make any mistake. But if we want to stop the hot stage of the war, we should take under NATO umbrella the territory of Ukraine that we have under our control. That's what we need to do fast. And then Ukraine can get back the other part of its territory diplomatically.

[Richard Engel]

This is kind of what the former Ukrainian foreign minister said to us last week, Richard, where he said that we need to have some kind of ceasefire now and then we need to think long term about how we regain this territory. And it seems to me that either Volodymyr Zelenskyy has accepted that he's lost territory and Trump is about to make some kind of deal. And so he has to basically accept certain things or he's playing the long game and he's saying to Trump, look, here I am. They've taken certain territory. The bits that have been that are controlled by Ukrainian forces need to come under the NATO umbrella for protection.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Can I ask you a question? Instead of providing an immediate answer, I'd love to hear yours. Do you think he's got any shot, do you think Ukraine has any shot of getting accepted into NATO? He's saying that a precondition. Maybe we can, we can work this out. We can end the hot phase of the war. We can reach a ceasefire if we get into NATO and then we can work it out later on. Because if Ukraine is in NATO and has protection, then we can work out later on at later phases of the moon how to get back the rest of the territory. That was he saying. But being in NATO as a precursor to ending the war, you think that's possible, Richard?

[Richard Engel]

Was it ever possible? They dangled this carrot in the faces of the Ukrainians for years. They did this.

[Sir Alex Younger]

That's a no, I take it.

[Richard Engel]

Well, George W. Bush sat next to Vladimir Putin and said to him, we're talking about having Ukraine as part of NATO. And Putin laughed and said, is it even a country? And this is way back in, say, 2008. So even before then. And so the point is that the Russians have felt that the west has almost been encroaching on it by offering this to Ukraine, but not really, never really officially offering it, but kind of saying, if X, Y and Z happens, this is what we could offer. This is the prize at the end.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Did the United States ever, or were NATO as a bloc, ever serious about offering membership to Ukraine? I kind of doubt it.

[Richard Engel]

The big question is then, with Zelensky putting this on the table now and saying, look, the bits, the parts of Ukraine that we control, my forces control, bring that under the NATO umbrella. That is the protection you can offer us. We'll sit down with the Russians and we'll deal with the territory that they have taken at a later date.

[Sir Alex Younger]

I think he's trying to make the strongest position he can. When you're negotiating, you don't open with your compromise position. You ask for everything. I want NATO membership. I want weapons. I want this, I want that, I want this. I don't want that. And he's not asking because he's asking. And that's the psychological shift that really annoys Ukrainians. I was in Ukraine recently and they always feel like, they're like, why is everyone asking us to give something up? What did we do? Why don't you go to Moscow and ask them what they're willing to give up? It never happens that way.

[Richard Engel]

So Zelensky perhaps is putting his cards on the table, sending a clear message to Donald Trump.

[Sir Alex Younger]

We'll end this war, give us NATO membership, and then we'll deal with it later.

[Richard Engel]

Exactly. So we'll have to wait and see how it looks for Ukraine.

[Sir Alex Younger]

You know, we're going to ask Sir Alex about this if he thinks they've got a snowballs chance.

[Richard Engel]

Well, exactly. So we're going to do take a break, and in a moment we'll be speaking with the former head of MI6, Sir Alex Younger.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Sir Alex, it is great to see you again.

[Yalda Hakim]

Likewise.

[Richard Engel]

Thank you so much for joining us. And of course, you are our second guest ever on this podcast, so we're very excited to have you. And a really interesting moment in geopolitics. I mean, the whole year has been quite extraordinary, but just the developments over the course of the last few days. We're really keen to talk to you about that. And of course, just to remind our viewers, you are the former head of MI6. You were appointed in 2014 and you held the position for six years, but you've been in the business for more than 30 years. I guess that was your. How long your career was as an intelligence officer. So no better person to talk to us about all of the issues, including what's been going on in the Middle east over the last couple of days.

[Yalda Hakim]

Can I just ask who was the first guest, just so I know what you're up against?

[Sir Alex Younger]

It was your predecessor at MI6, and he had terrible things to say about you. He really said, this guy, you know, when I left it, I put it in the hands of Sir Alex and it just fell apart. But don't worry about it.

[Yalda Hakim]

You know how to motivate us. Well done.

[Sir Alex Younger]

So we've been talking, as Yelda was saying, we've been talking a lot about the Middle East. We were talking earlier about Syria and Ukraine. I want to hear your perspectives on both of those. But could you help us understand the people in the UK maybe know more about MI6, but around the world, what is it? What do you do? You were C at MI6, so you were control. How does it work?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, we're the best intelligence service in the world. It's very simple. We were set up in 1909, so I think we're one of the first formal intelligence services. Fundamentally, we're a human intelligence organization. So that's about making relationships across forbidding cultural and international linguistic divides, inspiring trust in the person that you meet, and then honoring the risks they take on your behalf with a set of, you know, classic spy techniques. And that's at the absolute core of what we do. And it's all about the development of human relationships. It's what makes the job so interesting. It's what all the spy fiction doesn't talk about. The other part, of course, which has become much more proven ever since the horrific events of 9 11, is it's not just enough to find stuff out. You're expected to do something about it. And that's the whole Covid action agenda. And it's fair to say the United States and other organizations are much more active in that space than we are. But we do have that in our charter as well.

[Richard Engel]

Alex, if you wanted to just pick up on the fact that there was human intelligence, obviously, but since 911 you've had to turn that into action, what does that mean?

[Yalda Hakim]

So you don't get many thanks in government for sending an intelligence report to your bosses telling them that something's going to happen or this threat's going to eventuate without a plan to do something about it. And that's particularly true in the counterterrorism space. So after 911 it's fair to say the nature of our work changed significantly and, and the predominant dimension was international partnership working in concert to disrupt what we had uncovered. And that was a big part of my career. And it posited a whole set of physical and ethical and legal challenges which were very different than what had gone before. This is a long way of saying that our mission constantly evolves. I think MI6's heart remains in the human intelligence space. And when I talk about us being the best in class, of course I'm going to do that anyway. But I'm referring to that particular mission.

[Sir Alex Younger]

So does that mean you're. You think you're better or MI6 is better at human intelligence? Finding spies, getting foreigners to tell you secrets about their government and their military that they shouldn't, as opposed to flying drones and eliminating terrorists from some little village somewhere?

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah, I think so. You know, different states, circumstances are different, they specialize in different things. We remain really good at this stuff. I'm not the chief anymore. Of course you need to ask the current incumbent for an update, but I'd be very surprised if it was any different.

[Richard Engel]

Now, when you talk about not just an intelligence report, but that something was going to happen, but actually offering action and taking action. Can you give us an example of something that you might have put in place that would have prevented something catastrophic from happening?

[Yalda Hakim]

I'll give you a great example. And in fact a new word came into the dictionary as a result of it, which is pre bunking. But in the run up to Putin's criminal and ill conceived invasion of Ukraine, you would have noticed that five Eyes agencies became increasingly good at publishing a pretty direct account of what Putin was going to do pretty well to the day. And I thought that was extraordinary. And whilst it didn't stop Putin, that would be far too much to expect. It did provide the groundwork for one of the biggest surprises of the early phase of the war, which was the quality of Western solidarity. And that was based on the quality of the sort of common information picture. And this was not trifling intelligence. This will have been an agonizingly difficult decision taken to declassify it.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Was it really that hard, though? I don't mean to be insulting, but the US Got Iraq wrong. The CIA also got the collapse of the Soviet Union wrong. Didn't see that coming. And they said that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction, and he didn't. But was knowing that Putin was going to invade Ukraine that hard to figure out? I mean, he had almost 200,000 troops stationed along the Ukrainian border and he'd pushed his whole army there. I was in Ukraine at the time. Lots of other journalists, we were just looking at our clocks to see when it was going to happen.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah. So I think two things about that, Richard. First of all, the episodes that you cite, there weren't. They were assessment. So they were all the government deciding on the basis of fragmentary intelligence whether something was going to happen or not. This was completely different. This was us, if you like, publishing the material that underlied the assessment. And as to whether it was easy. Well, I mean, you're a clever temperature because you're in a minority. I have to say, I think there was a huge uncertainty. I think that most people in the Russian government didn't know this was going to happen. I think there was. And of course, this had precedent, a concern, or indeed a hope that Putin might be maximizing his leverage before yet again marching his army down the hill again. So I absolutely don't think that that certainty existed. And of course, it didn't exist in Ukrainian Mars.

[Sir Alex Younger]

No, it certainly did not. I was shocked that President Zelenskyy didn't think it was going to happen. I was like, are you crazy? They don't just put. Put all these troops on the border and keep them there, and they move blood reserves to use fresh blood reserves. Like, they're not kidding. This is not a joke. And everyone thought they were. A lot of people in Ukraine thought they were bluffing.

[Yalda Hakim]

A lot of people in the west thought it as well. A lot of people in Putin's own government, I suspect, thought it.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Wow.

[Richard Engel]

Yeah. And we're now almost three years into this conflict, and we're curious to get your assessment of how it's going to look going forward. But we just want to shift your focus to the situation in Syria because once again, it feels. Feels like the situation in Syria has been thrust into international headlines. The advancement of the rebels happened quite quickly. Were Western intelligence agencies watching? Were they predicting something like this would happen?

[Yalda Hakim]

Look, I've got a few things to say about this. Obviously, you know, anyone of my generation will have had a lot of exposure to Syria. I have no idea whether my colleagues saw this attack unfolding, although by open accounts, it had been quite long in the preparation. In any case, it's a sort of function of some pretty tectonic and strategic factors, such as the strategic weaknessing of Hezbollah, such as the fact that Russia has been distracted, such as the fact that the development of technology in Ukraine, specifically drone technology, has democratized military capabilities in a way that HTS understood. So there's a whole ton of stuff going on here which connects this issue to everything else.

[Sir Alex Younger]

They learn from the Ukrainians how to use drones, or they learn by example.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah, absolutely. And it's incumbent on the rest of us to do the same. And if I have a worry, it's that the large incumbent militaries are going to be the last to learn these lessons because of the vested interests that exist. So it's a really good lesson. I think all of us who've had to deal with Syria over these years have been repulsed by the merciless and brutal and completely indescribably disproportionate approach that Bashar al Assad has taken to suppressing his people. Western policy, declared or otherwise, for a very long time, is that he should not be there anymore. That met with reality. I think people are now much more measured, much more careful about what they wish for. But the idea that Bashar of himself represents a sort of stable solution into the long term for Syria is one that I absolutely reject, even if you've got to acknowledge that it's an incredibly complicated picture. And HDs themselves, of course, as a prescribed hardline Islamist organization, hardly represented a benign alternative.

[Richard Engel]

But do you worry that the west will start to see them as some kind of alternative again? And perhaps we will see them flooded with weapons to take on Bashar al Assad?

[Yalda Hakim]

No, I think there's absolutely zero chance of that happening. When I look at 2011 or even 2016, you know, the start of the war, and it's arguably its height. With the destruction of the caliphate, it feels like a different world. And I think the West's appetite for doing that has substantially diminished. But do I want Bashar to be successful in retaking Aleppo? Absolutely not. But there is one thing that occurs to me here, which is that Bashar himself, who's a weak man, and that manifests as incredible stubbornness. He just sticks his head in the sand and doesn't have the capability or imagination to change course, has started to exasperate even his most important backers, the Russians, with his inability to engage politically and to try to solve his problems through that route rather than more brutality. I think this must convince him that he is now in an extraordinarily weak position. I think his backers, you know, Iran and Russia, need to go on and explain to him that he's got to start talking to the myriad other actors in Syria if he's to have any chance of personally surviving. So that is the Axis. I think we should be proceeding, Dan, in a weird way, we're on the same side with a lot of our implacable enemies here. In getting Bashar to see reason, do.

[Richard Engel]

You worry that there will be an attempt to create a caliphate again and we'll see that becoming the West's problem?

[Yalda Hakim]

You're onto a really key issue there, Yaldr. And for all the complexity that confronts us and for all the difficulty and even deciding where our national or allied interests lie, there's one really clear, blatantly important operational fact which we are heavily exposed to, and that is the SDF's. So the people's Protection Forces, the Kurdish factions, undertaking on all of our behalf to continue to hold, detain and guard hundreds, if not thousands of of detainees affiliated with isis, radicalized still, and their families being radicalized, and to hold them in camps which are, you know, volatile and dangerous places. And I have worried for quite a long time that we're taking that for granted. So if this causes the SDF to reprioritize their effort, or I have to say, and this is directed at your future president, the United States decides to draw down its military support in that area, I think things could get quite ugly quite quickly, which he already tried.

[Sir Alex Younger]

To do in his first term.

[Richard Engel]

I was just going to say we've abandoned the Kurds. Well, the United States, Western allies have abandoned the Kurds before there, when we saw the first Trump presidency and he withdrew support from the Kurds in northeastern Syria. Are you saying that if things collapse, we might see some of these very dangerous terrorists who remain in some of these prisons come out, and again, it turns into a safe haven, and we start to see what we did in 2014, 2015 in the region?

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah. So I think it was one of the biggest successes of Western terrorism policy, counterterrorism policy, was the destruction of the caliber. It's very unusual to see a terrorist problem solved through purely military means. But. But we did it. But that's. That's never going to be complete without, you know, retaining the capacity to influence events in the region. So the deployments of Western forces, particularly US Forces in Iraq and in Kurdistan and in eastern Syria, are really important. So by the same token, if they go away, I think you can expect a resurgence of the problem. That's bad.

[Sir Alex Younger]

So, yeah, I could see a cascading sequence of events. So Trump pulls back forces. He's backing the Kurds. The Kurds are guarding isis. You've already got the civil war starting up again because Hezbollah has been sort of knocked out of the picture, and Syria goes back into. Into horrible civil war like it did a few years ago, which means ISIS is stronger, et cetera, et cetera. We could talk all day about Syria, but I'm dying to hear your perspective on Ukraine. Where is this going? Zelensky just laid out his plan speaking to Sky News and said, oh, we can end this war or the hot phase of it, if NATO. As long as there's NATO membership, Do you think that's possible? Does he have a chance of getting that?

[Yalda Hakim]

I think this is very much as I expected, that we're kind of moving into the political phase of this conflict. I think it's really important to be seen in the context, first of all, of the complete failure of Vladimir Putin to enact his original plan, which is to subdue Ukraine within a couple of weeks. Game over, go home. I think the Western response has been extraordinary, far more coherent than he would ever have expected. A massive downside surprise for Vladimir Putin. And, of course, the quality of Ukrainian resistance has also been inspirational. Can we also bear in mind that Putin is paying a heavy, heavy cost for what he's doing? He's certainly thinks he's winning, and arguably he is. But does the cost of 1,500 kill the wounded every day? So I think that's quite important background. We've got a choice. We either double down on support for Zelensky or we do a deal. We're not going to double down on support for Zelensky. There's going to be a deal. Now, what I've said about this is that it's going to be land for peace. Trump is a real estate guy. That's how he thinks about the world. But that belies the reality of what Putin's trying to achieve here. It's not about territory. It's never been about territory. And he was super clear. It was Ukraine's existence as an independent country that he felt posed an intolerable threat to Russia. It's that that he seeks to eliminate. And specifically now he's visited this huge sacrifice on his people. He's got to come home with something that looks like that. So Putin is going for Ukraine to be a non country. That's going to be the deal. So I think we got to accept there's going to be a frozen conflict, a land swap, whatever, however you like to call it. I don't think NATO is going to happen. Is Donald Trump or even the Germans going to allow that to happen? No.

[Richard Engel]

Do you think, though, that Putin is right, that he has more willpower than the west and that they're ultimately going to abandon Ukraine?

[Yalda Hakim]

I think that he thinks that, and I think that he is optimistic, given the progress he's making, that he will now achieve through diplomatic means what he failed to do through military means and essentially emasculate Ukraine so that it becomes a non country. Is he right or not? That's precisely my question, because I think there is a version of the deal, and Zelensky is starting to hint at this, that has security guarantees from Ukraine and a land swap, which nonetheless preserves the 80% of Ukraine that remains free as a real independent country. And if that country can have a real military industrial complex, which can be really supported by the west, and if it can enter into allowances of its own free will, then I think we fulfilled our principal strategic objective in this war, which is to demonstrably ensure that Putin has failed. He will try really, really hard not to have that outcome. I think Trump will have a lot more leverage, perhaps, than he appreciates in this. That's where the vital ground is. So I don't know if Putin's right or not, but I don't think he has to be right.

[Richard Engel]

Alex, we've been talking about conventional war, but can we take a moment to just talk about hybrid warfare and the gray zone, the war in the shadows? Because we know that is not something new. Some of the tactics that the Russians have been using for at least two decades, I mean, they're as old as time. Using methods like assassinations, disinformation campaigns, poisoning people in London with polonium was done in 2005, for example. Are we now seeing a sort of an escalation of that? And my question to you then is, how do you detect that? How do you deter it? And what sort of policy should be taken to deal with that as we move away from these conventional wars and into the shadows again.

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, I am worried about this and I'll tell you why. It's not that we can't deal with this in terms of our capabilities, but that we're just not configured to deal with it. So for Russia, you know, it's a place run by a man. It's not run by rules. Western liberal democracies are run by rules, not strong men. And these rules are being used against us because these rules for us create boundaries. They create a distinction between a state of war and a state of peace. They create a distinction between domestic and international, whatever it might be. Russia doesn't care about that. And their hybrid doctrine is super clear that you apply all organs of state power against defined national security objectives, regardless of whether you're at peace or at war. And it gets us every time because we can't respond. We apply our own restrictions to our response. When they don't apply those restrictions to their attack, I think in reality, Russian capabilities are reasonably limited in this space. Russian spies have been cleared out of Europe. The quality of the operations they've run so far is pretty reasonable. We have highly powerful security services across our alliances. We can deal with this stuff. But I worry that it's so unfamiliar, it's so different to the world we were brought up in, that it's going to take a really significant degree of adjustment. And whilst I don't think Putin is intent on firing a nuclear weapon at us, I'm not that concerned beyond an irreducible level of risk about vertical escalation. This idea of horizontal escalation messing with our fiber optic cables and our critical national infrastructure and our elections and our cyber, that's absolutely real. It's going to be a feature of our life, more or less, whatever happens.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Could you elaborate a little this? Because a lot of people who are not in the UK are not following this. There was a threat recently that it was brought up by a British official that the Russians were going to do a kind of asymmetrical attack, attack the infrastructure of the uk. Tell me a little bit more about this and then give us your analysis. Because I remember reading this, I was like, what?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, Rich, I do know what you're referring to specifically, but absolutely. I think a specific issue that the UK worries about. We sit at the junction, essentially, of the world's Internet infrastructure. For historical reasons, most of the cables across the Atlantic and indeed come in from Asia land in the uk, and these are fiber optic cables which lie on the seabed unprotected. Russia has a documented program to find those cables and cut them. It's such a simple thing. It's easy to do. We can't defend them.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Yes, and that's exactly what I was talking about. There was a warning about this that was made public a couple of days ago.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah. That is well founded. And there's just one example of how vulnerable our networks are. Russia doesn't have those vulnerabilities. As a huge continental state, we don't have a legal basis to go and mount retaliatory attacks. There's no basis for that until you get to the threshold of war. And this is deliberately designed to sit below the threshold. And it's always semi deniable, semi undeniable. We've seen this confusion around the cables being cut in the Baltic only the other day. It's a whole new domain. And Western liberal democracies are not well equipped to fight in that space. And we need to think about our culture and our law and our capabilities. And I think we need to do that pretty quickly.

[Richard Engel]

When you say we have the capacity to deal with it and we can, then what are you saying is put in place other than conventional warfare to react and respond?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, this is, I think, where my frustration lies because in terms of actually finding out what's going on and even. And in terms of getting on top of it, we are well equipped. We have highly developed, extremely capable security services, so our equivalent of the FBI. And we have the FBI, we have very well developed intelligence services. But we lack two key things. We lack any serious legal instruments to allow us to act in response to this. And culturally, I don't think we're ready. These operations will be conducted by Vladimir Putin to intimidate us. And I think that public education is woefully lacking in a way that makes me worry that they will have a disproportionate influence. It's really important for people to understand what's going on here, and in fact, that these things are really quite limited. But if we don't talk about it and we don't educate our people, it will achieve this sort of effect of psychologically undermining our populations. Exactly what Putin's trying to achieve, and we shouldn't tolerate that.

[Richard Engel]

It's interesting you sort of talk about liberal democracies, values. This is not the world we have grown up in, and therefore we're not quite sure how to respond because we don't have the legal basis. But aren't you accountable then to your public and population if the grids are Destroyed, if electricity goes, if water supplies are cut off, if there's mayhem in our cities, what then should the reaction and response be?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, I mean, I know you're summarising, Elder, but I think it's quite important not to exaggerate. I personally think that the effects of these operations so far have been pretty minimal. I think that Russian capabilities.

[Richard Engel]

But aren't they testing the waters?

[Yalda Hakim]

No. So I think they're doing what they can. And, you know, don't forget, after the Salisbury affair, we threw out every spy we could find in Europe. I think their networks are pretty attenuated. I think whether we're capable of retaliating or not, Putin's government worries a lot about us doing. So. I think some of the actions taken by the Five Eyes against ransomware operators really worried them. So there's a lot of stuff here I don't want to catastrophize, and I don't want to kind of create the problem I'm counseling against which we undermine ourselves.

[Richard Engel]

You talked there about the Five Eyes, of course. That's the United States, Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the United Kingdom. They work together where they exchange information, gather information and share information.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah.

[Sir Alex Younger]

In this podcast, I'm. We're always asking for people to write in to listen, and I actually have a question from a viewer. It came in via Instagram. And I think it gets to this point we're discussing right now, what do you see as the most imminent threat to our national security? And I guess that would be British national security, but it doesn't have to be British national security. What do you see as the biggest threat to national security writ large right now?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, you know, you catch me in a philosophical moment, and it's closely related to what we're talking about now. I think that there's a real risk that we. That we've got a massive confidence problem in the West. We've lost faith in our leaders, we've lost faith in our democracy, and we are allowing ourselves frequently to be manipulated. And if I was an enemy looking in at the West, I would fear it because of the capabilities that we possess and particularly, by the way, the alliances that we have. But I would see our weak flank as this. And I would marvel, marvel at the idea that there are now large tech platforms with large social media capabilities that are actually paid to profit from the culture wars and the dissent.

[Richard Engel]

Well, we've got another question for you. Our listeners were really excited that you were coming on, so they've sent us a whole host of questions but we're going to rattle off a couple. One of them was, what's the toughest part of being in the Mi6?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, it's the best part as well. It's highly consequential. There's a comparatively narrow gap between you doing something and it leading to something, an action and a consequence. The thing I think I like most about being a spy though, because is that it's quite sort of mischievous. And the difference between us and the military, where you wear a green uniform and have a gun, is that what we do happens in every is just in normal life, in the supermarket and in the pub and in the restaurant, in the shop, shopping center or the souk or the bazaar. And it's a very strange feeling to be doing all this stuff in amongst normal life and to kind of understand what's going on in a way that everybody else doesn't. It's an extraordinary experience.

[Richard Engel]

What gave you sleepless nights? You know, where you thought this is, this is something that's really worrying me. I can, I can see this developing and turning into something bigger.

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, it was, it was less about what was going on and more about what we did. So I've already said at the beginning that what our job was to create relationships with people, to gain the information that our country's narrow eyes need. But to recognize that in doing that, those people will be taking risk and the responsibility that you have to do everything in your power to protect that person and the decision they've taken. You can imagine that that does prey on your mind. And that is what kept me awake at night.

[Richard Engel]

The last question we have for Alex is, do you think the next James Bond should be a woman?

[Yalda Hakim]

No, I don't. I think that the reason Fleming's books are so powerful is because James Bond isn't imperfect, cynical person with no emotional intelligence. That's why they work. So he's got to be a man.

[Richard Engel]

Fair enough. Our female listeners might like that. We have a lot of emotional intelligence.

[Sir Alex Younger]

So in terms of Alex, you don't know about this part. So on our podcast, which has only been around now for a little bit, still do it a couple months in, we do predictions at the end of it with the caveat that we're probably going to be wrong. But we've been doing all right so far. We've gotten more right than wrong and tend to be kind of short term predictions. Not what's going to happen tomorrow, but what's going to happen in the next week or two. Do you want to start?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, there's going to be Christmas.

[Sir Alex Younger]

There's going to be Christmas. There it is. The greatest intelligence agency in the history of mankind. It will be Christmas. Yes.

[Yalda Hakim]

By where you heard him first.

[Sir Alex Younger]

But Orthodox Christmas or on the which calendar? Christmas.

[Yalda Hakim]

Orthodox Christmas is going to come after the Catholic Christmas.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Okay, he doesn't want to start. Yalda want to show him how it's done.

[Richard Engel]

I mean, look, we're in lame duck December. So Joe Biden, you know, trying to shoehorn things in the last few weeks before the inauguration, but I think if we're talking about the Middle East, I would like to keep a close eye on what's happening in Iraq over the next week or so. I think what the last week has taught us about Syria is that, you know, these places, they go unnoticed, but actually all of these places are constantly simmering. I think we need to keep a very close eye on the region in the next week or so.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah, well, that's always true, isn't it? That's an easy one, I would say.

[Sir Alex Younger]

I'll go more specific. I'll go more specific. I'll say the hospitals. If I were working in a hospital in Aleppo or Aleppo or Hamak now is a new place, they've advanced. I would be very nervous. I would expect the Russians are going to flatten Aleppo and they're going to start with the medical facilities. That's what they did at the peak of the war. And I think if they want to try and break the back of this new rebel uprising, they're going to go back to that familiar playbook and they're going to punish this beautiful historic city and its wonderful inhabitants by. By bombing them, bombing the city and bombing their ability to take care of.

[Richard Engel]

Themselves the first time round. When they were doing this, Richard, weren't the Americans, and you can probably confirm this, Alex, weren't the Americans giving the Russians the coordinates, saying, these are the hospitals, please don't hit them, and then obviously they would suddenly be hit. Perhaps, you know, they can be given Bashar al Assad's coordinates this time around and the hospitals and sort of say, you decide which ones are which.

[Yalda Hakim]

Now, don't get me started on the unintended consequences of signaling intentions to the Russians on the mistaken assumption that they will regard that as a de escalatory measure. In fact, they just pocket the intelligence and use it against us constantly. We're telling the Russians our road lines and they're just operating. They're saying, thank you for that intelligence, and they're operating just below them.

[Sir Alex Younger]

So yalda's prediction is that Iraq is about to light up. But I couldn't agree more. I think that Aleppo is about to have a very, very terrible week and areas around it, particularly Medical Center. You still think Christmas is coming and that it will fall sometime in December for most of the world.

[Yalda Hakim]

And the reason for my highly British and facetious response is I'm absolutely not going to make predictions about what is going to happen next week. That is not my job. I think it's a mugs game. But let's go out a year. And then I think there's a number of things that aren't in the price. And the one I would elevate is Iran's weakness, which I think is more considerable than people understand. And whilst you can sort of see the shape of a Trumpian policy on Iran because it's what you did last time, I think we might all be surprised by Iran's readiness to go along with something that that de escalates all of this. I've been struck by the way their strategic positions weakened over the last few months. I've been really surprised by it. And I think that's an area where we might just all be thinking quite differently this time next year. That would be a Christmas present.

[Richard Engel]

So maximum pressure on Iran is what you see on the cards as the first instance in the new year.

[Yalda Hakim]

I think they will do that, but it's going to obviously to be accompanied by some attempt to get Iran to change course. And there's a vicious argument Khamenei is about to die. There's a vicious argument going on in Tehran about the whole direction of their foreign policy, reflecting the fact that their proxies are useless, their missiles don't work and that half the population hate their own government. It's not a great position they're in and they will be looking for ways to reduce the risk.

[Richard Engel]

Can I just ask as a spy, if you were to completely remove ourselves from kind of the emotion of what happened in Lebanon and the millions of people who were displaced, you know, over a million people displaced, thousands killed. But as a spy, did you watch that kind of infiltration of Hezbollah and the leadership being taken out, the pager attacks, the walkie talkies and think this is some kind of masterstroke?

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, I didn't because I know that however brilliant these operations are in shaping an outcome, they're never an outcome of themselves. So you can't win a war through doing all those things. So to be honest, I was skeptical, particularly given the open ended and ultimately Self defeating nature of previous Israeli incursions into Lebanon. Now, it may turn out like that again, but so I freely admit that it's been far more successful than I would have anticipated, notwithstanding and remembering the terrible suffering that's been visited on innocent civilians across the peace. So I think it has gone further and faster than I would have expected and had significantly more strategic effect. And Hamas of course isn't gone. Nasrallah replaced someone who was himself assassinated. But they're giving a pretty good impression of a really fundamentally degraded and disrupted organization. And that's got to represent an opportunity. You know, it's caused what's going on in Syria. It's really giving Iran cause for thought. Hezbollah were their primary source of deterrence. I think we're in quite an interesting space now.

[Richard Engel]

I think that's a prediction in itself. You've taken us right the way around.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Sir Alex, thank you very much and please come back and join us again.

[Yalda Hakim]

Thank you.

[Richard Engel]

We'd love to have you back on. Thank you so much for joining us here on the podcast as our second guest. So Richard, we just finished talking to Sir Alex Younger, the former head of MI6. Fascinating hearing his insights. What intrigued him, what didn't. I mean he's obviously out, but no one is ever really a former, are they?

[Sir Alex Younger]

They sort of not really, I guess.

[Richard Engel]

Close watch on everything. It was interesting to hear his insights about Iran going forward over the course of the next year, whether they are willing to be more flexible, the fact that there is going to be maximum pressure on Iran from the Americans, from the, and the impact that's going to have. But he also talked about the sort of domino effect of everything that we've seen since October 7th in Israel, then Gaza, then of course what happened in Lebanon and now that's moved on into Syria. And he made it very clear that things don't just stay in the Middle East. He is worried about it spreading out and becoming an issue for the west again.

[Sir Alex Younger]

Yeah, absolutely. He's a great guy to talk to. It's supposed that job. So you're running an intelligence network, you're coordinating with intelligence agencies around the world. You're expected to act and that after all that experience, he thinks the biggest problem is our confidence, that we are too easily confused, we're too easily distracted. We're not willing to sacrifice that. It's, you know, he described it as if it was a Russian campaign against us. So is this the AI world that we live in, the social media world where people have no attention spans, they're not willing to work hard and make sacrifices. Is that the basic, our fundamental weakness? If that's what keeps us, that's what keeps him up at night. I thought that was an interesting way of looking at it, that, okay, you can figure out all the different rebel groups in Syria and you can check at the weapons system, but if you don't have resolve and resilience, you're not going to get far as a culture and as a society.

[Richard Engel]

Yeah, absolutely. Really fascinating talking to him. And I will be seeing you, Richard, in the next week or so. So I'm, I'm looking forward to catching up face to face.

[Sir Alex Younger]

I can't wait. We're going to be, we're going to be in, in person in the same place. So that should be, that should be fun.

[Richard Engel]

Very much look forward to seeing you. Have a fantastic week and see you soon.

[Sir Alex Younger]

See.