Podcast Summary: "Is Iran about to go to war?"

Podcast: The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Host: Sky News
Date: February 18, 2026
Hosts: Richard Engel (NBC), Yalda Hakim (Sky News)

Overview

In this episode, Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim dive into the escalating tensions around Iran—both on the streets and in global diplomatic circles. They analyze the recent unrest and economic turmoil in Iran, the role of exiled opposition figure Reza Pahlavi, and high-stakes diplomatic negotiations in Geneva involving the US and Iran. The Munich Security Conference is dissected, focusing on the mood among world leaders, the reception of Reza Pahlavi, and shifting US-European relations under the Trump administration. As always, they bring in frontline reporting, background intel from key players, and lived experience from global events.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Richard’s Recent Experience in Tehran

• Internet Blackout: Richard details his recent reporting trip to Tehran during a severe internet outage.
  • “I was in the back of that van and it was working... And then, of course, the comms cut off. I just think it was very, very weak comms and we kind of got throttled.” (08:28)
• Atmosphere:
  • Streets under heavy police presence, intermittent opening of shops, deep anxiety and caution among the public.
  • Economic crisis and currency collapse were the spark for protests, further aggravated by the blackout and crackdown.
  • “People were looking out cautiously after a storm to see what, what was, what it was like outside. And the economic crisis remains.” (09:44)

2. Impact of Sanctions and Blackouts

• Iran’s isolation is deepened by sanctions, which impact daily life and the economy.
• The internet blackout wasn’t just about squashing dissent, but “costs billions,” crippling trade and transactions.
  • “It is not just about a government crackdown... The economy of the country was also badly impacted and set everyone back even further.” (12:51)
• State TV portrays the crackdown as a victory over “terrorist insurgency,” contributing to a climate of fear and uncertainty.

3. The Political Landscape: Diplomatic Talks & Danger of Escalation

• Geneva talks between the US and Iran are ongoing, with indirect negotiations via Trump’s envoys, Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff.
  • Optimistic messaging from Iran’s diplomats; Trump’s administration remains hawkish.
  • Supreme Leader in Iran threatens US warships, Trump doubles down on regime change rhetoric:
    “President Trump is saying that regime change is the best thing that could happen for the country. And Iran's supreme leader is threatening to sink American warships.” (01:21)
• Tension between the real prospects for a nuclear agreement or “guiding principles” and rhetoric for domestic and international audiences.
  • Richard: "Is it going to be just a list of principles? Is it going to be a detailed document?... It’s very squishy. And that’s dangerous when you’re talking about regime change, war, for squishy objectives.” (19:51)
  • Richard notes that states rarely deploy military power on this scale and then fail to use it: “When the guns came out, they get used. It’s always proven to be the case.” (19:51)
• Regional leaders (Israel, Arab states) diverge on their assessment: pessimism in Israel versus cautious optimism among Arab voices.

4. The “Shah’s Son” and the Limits of Exiled Opposition

• Reza Pahlavi, son of Iran’s last Shah, is prominent at Munich but sparks debate about his legitimacy.
  • Reception at the Munich Security Conference is mixed, with journalists and other officials questioning his claim to leadership.
    • Yalda: “There was a lot of criticism that he drew in the way that he approached the press conference... from one unelected regime to the son of the late shah who thinks he's just going to come in and be part of some kind of transition.” (30:01)
  • Richard stresses that Pahlavi has little visible support inside Iran:
    • "I didn’t really have anyone to come out and say... I can’t wait for the Shah to come back and the Shah’s family to come back. I just didn’t have that conversation. It didn’t happen." (31:17)
  • Slogans supporting him during protests are often more a rebuke to the current government than genuine restorationist sentiment.

5. Regional and Global Reactions: Munich Security Conference Takeaways

• The Munich Security Conference is shown to be a crucible where diplomatic tone matters deeply.
  • Last year Vice President J.D. Vance scandalized the audience with aggressive rhetoric; this year, Marco Rubio provided reassurance but little shift in underlying policy.
    • Yalda: “Rubio was much more reassuring … he got a standing ovation, not because they thought what he was saying was great, but it was a relief.” (35:23)
    • Richard: "The messaging was ultimately the same. The tone was different." (36:35)
  • Fundamental cracks remain in the US-European relationship—tone has softened, substance remains “America First.”

6. The Imran Khan Update

• Yalda briefly updates on Imran Khan in solitary confinement in Pakistan.
  • Health deteriorating; family unable to see him; urgent medical treatment needed for his eyesight.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the Climate in Tehran:
  • Richard (09:44): “People were looking out cautiously after a storm to see what, what was, what it was like outside. And the economic crisis remains.”
• On the Limitations of Military Solutions:
  • Richard (33:56): “I've never seen a regime change bomb that you just drop it or launch it from an airship and suddenly it collapses. The government brings in a new system, brings in democracy, and it works perfectly well. Force just doesn't do that.”
• On Pahlavi’s Reception:
  • Yalda (30:05): “It was not just a ‘come, we can't wait until you show up and save Iran.’”
• On US-European Relations:
  • Richard (36:35): "The messaging was ultimately the same. The tone was different..."
  • Yalda (39:00): “...this fracture that we're seeing between the United States and European allies feels very real.”
• On Support for Pahlavi in Iran:
  • Richard (31:17): “I didn’t really have anyone to come out and say... I can’t wait for the Shah to come back and the Shah’s family to come back.”

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Intro & Setting the Stage: 00:15–01:21
• Richard's Report from Tehran: 08:28–12:51
• Economic Crisis & Protest Dynamics: 09:44–13:45
• Sanctions, Blackouts & State Messaging: 12:51–16:54
• Iran-US Talks/Geopolitical Risks: 16:54–23:20
• Regional Opinions (Israel, Arabs) & The JCPOA: 23:20–25:42
• Reza Pahlavi at Munich—Debate over Opposition: 27:37–32:53
• US Congressional Delegation, European Fractures: 35:00–36:35
• Imran Khan Update (Pakistan): 37:04–38:18
• Reflections on Munich & Wrap-up: 38:18–40:44

Closing Thoughts

The episode offers a nuanced look at Iran’s present moment—poised between internal collapse and external pressure, with its people caught in the vise. Engel and Hakim peel back the layers of international diplomacy, media narratives, and lived reality. The rift between Europe and the US is ever more apparent, despite efforts at reassurances. Meanwhile, the old formulas for regime change—either externally imposed or via exiled royalty—seem wan, disconnected from Iran’s complex, suffering society.