← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Is Trump's new Ukraine plan capitulation or compromise?
00:28:08
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- [00:00]
Steve Witkoff
Foreign.
- [00:07]
Yalda Hakim
Welcome to the World with me, Yalda Hakim, and I'm currently in Dubai.
- [00:11]
Richard Engel
And me, Richard Engel, and I am in Geneva, Switzerland.
- [00:23]
Yalda Hakim
This is one of the hardest moments in our history.
- [00:26]
Richard Engel
The pressure on Ukraine today is among.
- [00:27]
Yalda Hakim
The heaviest we have ever faced.
- [00:30]
Richard Engel
Currently, Ukraine may be facing an extremely difficult decision.
- [00:33]
Yalda Hakim
Either a loss of dignity or the.
- [00:35]
Richard Engel
Risk of losing a key partner.
- [00:42]
Yalda Hakim
Any credible and sustainable peace plan should first and foremost stop the killing and end the war. While not sowing the seeds for future conflict. We have agreed on the main elements necessary for just and lasting peace and Ukraine's sovereignty.
- [01:05]
Richard Engel
I think today was worthwhile. It was very, very. It is probably the most productive day we have had on this issue, maybe in the entirety of our engagement, but certainly in a very long time. I can tell you that the items that remain open are not insurmountable. We just need more time than what we have today. I honestly believe we'll get there. What are you doing in Dubai?
- [01:42]
Yalda Hakim
Well, I was going to say, you know, I should be here covering in the uae, covering the arrival of the US Army Secretary who's here to talk with the Russian, but I'm actually here to celebrate my sister's wedding.
- [01:56]
Richard Engel
Oh, very nice.
- [01:57]
Yalda Hakim
So I'm squeezing you in, Richard.
- [01:59]
Richard Engel
I appreciate that. Thank you. Is that why you look so lovely this morning? You blowed out your hair and you look like you're ready for the festivities to begin.
- [02:08]
Yalda Hakim
It's a week long festivity so we, yeah, we've had two events already. The bridal shower, the welcome dinner and then we've got a traditional Afghan and the groom's Turkish, Turkish event on Wednesday night and then the actual wedding is on Saturday.
- [02:28]
Richard Engel
Well, I am in Geneva, which is freezing cold, probably equally expensive. But I am here because there have been a series of quite interesting negotiations, quite productive, so it seems over the last week. And now the, the 28 point plan that the US put forward to end the war between Russia and Ukraine, which the Ukrainians initially found so repulsive and so lopsided toward Vladimir Putin has been modified and the Ukraine. The Ukrainians are closer to a position they feel comfortable with, but the details are not entirely clear at this stage.
- [03:16]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, absolutely, Richard. We're going to focus for majority of this podcast on the situation in Ukraine, the peace deal that, that the Americans and the Russians have, have come up with and trying to twist the Ukrainian arm to sort of almost the Ukrainians are saying to surrender. I've been working the phones. I'm sure you've been speaking to a lot of your contacts. So we're going to get into that for this episode of the podcast. Of course, you can follow us wherever you get your podcasts, Apple, Spotify and watch us on our YouTube channel. Just search the world with Richard and Yalda. And of course, do subscribe. We love questions as well. So send us your thoughts at the world sky.uk. Richard, before we get get stuck in, I wonder if you listened to the interview with Donald Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff and the podcaster, Tucker Carlson.
- [04:23]
Richard Engel
You know what? I did not.
- [04:24]
Yalda Hakim
Let's have a listen.
- [04:25]
Richard Engel
What did you think of him?
- [04:28]
Steve Witkoff
I liked him.
- [04:28]
Richard Engel
Yep.
- [04:29]
Steve Witkoff
I thought he was straight up with me. Of course, by the way I've said that, and you can imagine, by the way I say that I get pilloried. Oh, my gosh, you're actually saying that you like that.
- [04:39]
Richard Engel
Every American president until Biden has said that. Every single one.
- [04:43]
Steve Witkoff
This is the kind of connection that we've been able to reestablish through. By the way, a simple word called communication, which many people would, would say, you know, I shouldn't have had because Putin is a bad guy. I don't regard Putin as a bad guy. That is a complicated situation. That war and all the ingredients that, that led up to it. It's, you know, it's never just one person. Right. So we're gonna, I think we're gonna figure it out.
- [05:11]
Yalda Hakim
So when he said, I like him, he's talking about, of course, Vladimir Putin and Tucker Carlson, the now turned podcaster, once Fox News host, a massive figure in the MAGA movement. You know, I remember going to the Republican National Convention in Wisconsin last year, Richard, and when he came up onto the stage, I mean, the crowd went absolutely wild for Tucker Carlson. So he is a massive figure in the MAGA movement.
- [05:41]
Richard Engel
And I know him well. He used to work where I work. He had a show on msnbc, which has now been spun off from NBC News. But years and years ago, I spent time with him. He was not, he didn't have the same Persona that he did now. He ran a show, I guess it was slightly, if you look back, you know, lined up with his personality, his worldviews. But he transformed into something totally different when he went to Fox. And now that he's on the road, he's blossomed in his own way that he, that he wasn't. When I knew him, I didn't know him particularly well. I mean, we didn't go out for dinner and I wouldn't say we were friendly, but he was around. I knew him, I spent a little time with him. So I know who Tucker is. But what struck you is that he says that Putin's not a bad guy, that it's more complicated or.
- [06:35]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I mean, look, Tucker Carlson is someone who has went to Russia, met with Putin, spent some time with Putin, and was described by many as a useful idiot from the west who went and tried to show a different side to Vladimir Putin that, that many said doesn't exist, that he, he was sort of, you know, fooled into believing that Vladimir Putin would be someone that, you know, the west, the Americans could negotiate with. And now we're hearing from Steve Witkoff, Donald Trump's special envoy, the man who has been tasked to go to the Middle east and strike deals with the, the Arabs and the Israelis and, you know, and try and come up with a peace deal between the Russians and the Ukrainians. He has met on number of occasions with Vladimir Putin and he was talking about the fact that, look, he, he likes him. He, you know, he likes him. And he goes on to say, you know, in the interview that, that he, you know, believes him when he, when he says something to him. He does believe him. And I think so. That to me was, was striking because, you know, it sort of echoes what Donald Trump believes when, when, when he talks about Vladimir Putin. He says he likes him, he likes him a lot and he believes him. So, you know, and now Steve Witkoff, you know, someone who's met with Vladimir Putin perhaps about four or five times over the course of the last year. Donald Trump has spoken with Vladimir Putin about eight times. And their envoys have met across in different parts of the world a number of times. Now. They've come up with this 28 point plan, which the Ukrainians have said has.
- [08:16]
Richard Engel
Now shrunk so whittled down to a 19 point plan.
- [08:19]
Yalda Hakim
Let's just talk about what you're doing in Geneva and what they came up with.
- [08:25]
Richard Engel
So initially, President Trump put forward this 28 point plan, which was leaked and it was a Russian plan. It was everything that Putin has been asking for. He wanted all of the Donbas and the other four regions along the border. He wanted the Ukrainian military to be capped at 600,000. That's in the 28 point plan. And if you remember, the Ukrainians freaked out when they saw this 28 point plan. They were furious. European countries who are allies of Ukraine freaked out. So after two days of straight meetings, the two sides came to a place where the Ukrainians are much happier and they have a watered down version of this 28 point plan that now Zelensky is going to negotiate directly with Trump. So they have a more even baseline from Ukraine's perspective compared to where they started out with this very lopsided 28 point plan. That's what happened here in Geneva while I was here.
- [09:31]
Yalda Hakim
But, Richard, let's just break down, you know, some of these demands.
- [09:36]
Richard Engel
Sure.
- [09:36]
Yalda Hakim
Well, let's, let's break it down to, into sort of three main categories. You know, that, that we know that both the Russians and the Ukrainians, what's contentious. So the first is obviously territory, you know, what the Ukrainians are willing to give up and frankly, the Russians are greedy. Volodymy Zelensky has actually said in an address to the Swedish parliament that the main problem facing the peace talks is Putin's demand for legal recognition for the territory he has stolen from Ukraine. So let's talk about what was in the original leaked plan. We know that the Russians want Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, these regions, they want these to be de facto Russian land. Now, these are things that the, the Ukrainians are saying, unacceptable. We're not willing to give you the territory that frankly, the Russians currently control. And Volodymyr Zelensky has said has been stolen from Ukraine, you know, and, and, and that's correct.
- [10:38]
Richard Engel
And the Ukrainians don't want to recognize it. So it's all about Crimea at the end of the day, and all about stealing a piece of more land in order to protect Crimea. So if you, if you have the mental map in, in your head, there's the sort of the Black Sea and then hanging down into the Black Sea is the Crimean Peninsula. And the Crimean Peninsula, Russia seized it after there was a democratic revolution in Ukraine, kept it as a naval base, took it in this quite sophisticated, well executed military operation where commandos went in and helped orchestrate a referendum. But the problem is Crimea is not connected to Russia. It was connected by a little bridge that the Russians built. But if your only way, only access point to a key naval base and a key sort of projection of Russian power into the Black Sea is one single suspension bridge, well, that can be blown up, that can be blocked, that could have normal problems and need repairs. It's just a bridge at the end of the day, very vulnerable. And the Russians decided, we're not going to do this. We're not going to have just one bridge connecting us to this vital piece of land which they stole, but which they stole and then justified with a referendum and then annexed to Russia. So they say this is Crimea, it's ours. It's always been ours. We need it. The Soviets gave it away to Ukraine accidentally, we're stealing it back. And they did. But the only way to get there was this little bridge. So they carved out a land corridor and that land corridor runs through these four big provinces along the border. And Putin said he wants all of them and he wants the world to recognize that they are his. I think that's the main issue is they can't bring themselves to forever tell their people that this land is gone. They could say, we need a peace deal, we need an armistice, we need to freeze the conflict. Because Russian troops are holding a lot of this territory. The Ukrainians can't dislodge them. But saying it's gone forever and we recognize Russia's full claim to this territory forever, I think that's probably a step too far for most Ukrainians.
- [13:04]
Yalda Hakim
So I guess in this, the original leaked plan that we know or you know, it's been reported that the Russians more or less drafted Crimea, Luhans, done regions would be de facto Russian land. And, and this was included by the United States. But, and according to the proposal, the borders of the other two regions that Russia has partially occupied and claimed as its own, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, they will be frozen along the front line because obviously Russia does not control the entirety of the areas of Luhansk and Donetsk. So the plan would basically in effect see Ukraine withdraw from those areas that Russia hasn't been able to win militarily. So this withdrawal zone would be considered a neutral demilitarized buffer zone, internationally recognized as belonging to Russia. So that was basically the original leaked paper. The EU amendments say that Ukraine will commit to not recover the occupied sovereign territory through military means, but would do it through some kind of negotiations.
- [14:16]
Richard Engel
Exactly. These are trying to be long term peace deals. You know, this is not supposed to be a truce. They want to make this lasting. And that's the biggest issue that Ukrainians have. They know that the war needs to stop right now. They're having a real trouble. I mean, Ukraine is not that it's a big country in landmass, but doesn't have that big of a population and people are getting injured and they're tired of conscription and they want to go back to work and they haven't been able to take back these territory from Russia. The front lines haven't really moved in a couple of years now. So you can throw yourself against the meat grinder for so long, but they don't Want to say yes, forever, until the end of time, we're going to give up that territory and it's going to be Russia. They would say, well, let's wait for better days and maybe we can try it diplomatically. That's a big sticking point.
- [15:06]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. And the other thing that has emerged from the original leaked paper was the size of the Ukrainian army. The Russians want it limited to 600,000 soldiers. Now I'd seen somewhere that the Russians wanted it no more than 100,000.
- [15:20]
Richard Engel
So I think they wanted the country to be demilitarized.
- [15:23]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. Is basically some kind of compromise in itself. The EU amendments say the cap would of the Ukrainian armed forces would be set at 800,000.
- [15:34]
Richard Engel
Essentially the original 28 point plan said that the cap should be 600. The Europeans counter proposal said the cap should be 800,000 comma in peacetime, which means there's a at the end of it. Now on paper that difference may not look that, you know, significant 600,000 versus 800,000 in peacetime, but it's very significant because if you're Vladimir Putin and your intention is to reinvade again later, which is what every Ukrainian believes, that if there is a peace deal and it's not a good peace deal, that Vladimir Putin is just going to wait it out and come back stronger. And what the Ukrainians are trying to do and those who support Ukraine are trying to do is make Ukraine as hard and as prickly as a target as this could possibly be. They want to make it a country of thorns and brambles and poison ivy, that if you touch that country from the outside you will get hurt, you will get stung, you better not do it. And if the size of the Ukrainian army is limited to 600,000 period and they can't go up any higher, then Vladimir Putin presumably could know what he's dealing with. But if you leave it a little bigger 800,000 and you make it open ended so that it can expand to any size during a full frontal attack, well then you leave your adversary guessing a bit more. And I think that's what this, that fundamental principle is the one that you see all throughout these different drafts and that the people who support Ukraine also recognize that Ukraine is going to have to give up some territory. But they want to make it as tough and protected, not vulnerable as possible. The sea urchin or the hedgehog approach. Taiwan has a similar approach. Make it really nasty to touch. The question is, will Vladimir Putin accept this? The first 28 point plan, the Russians, the Kremlin came out and said, yeah, we can work with this. We should use this as a basis for our peace deal. We can accept this, no problem, because it was, it was all of their demands. So, sure, why not? Now we'll have to see what the reaction is when they're presented with this more modified stance. And so far the Kremlin hasn't said anything, Putin hasn't said anything. Peskov did a briefing yesterday, the Putin spokesman, and said, well, look, we haven't been presented any documents, so I'm not going to comment on media reports of what may or may not be in this updated plan. I mean, fair enough, that's probably the response I would have given too. And let's be optimistic for a second. Let's be optimistic. I know it's easy to be pessimistic and usually if you're pessimistic about issues about war and peace, you're usually right. But let's be optimistic. Both of these plans, the 28 Pro Russia one and this more middle of the road, 19, 1, 19 point plan for now, are both about ending the war. It's not like the two plans were about something totally, totally different. One was more in favor of Russia and presumably the other one is more in flavor of Ukraine. All of this, the trajectory is heading in that direction. So I don't think it's a total waste of time. They're talking about ending the war. They're just trying to figure out the best terms to do it. And that to me leaves me to believe that Ukraine really does want to end this war, that Vladimir Putin really does want to end this war, that Trump wants to end this war, that the Europeans want to end this war. The collective will is there to wrap it up. They just don't know how to do it. Because if you don't, if you don't make any concessions, then you might not get the Russians on board. But if you make too many concessions, then you've made Ukraine weak and vulnerable and demoralized and ready for another invasion. So it's difficult. How do you make a concession without giving up too much or giving up too little?
- [19:57]
Yalda Hakim
I think at some point there are going to be some uncomfortable concessions that are going to have to be made, made whether it's giving the Russians more territory than the Ukrainians are willing to do in exchange for hard security guarantees. We'll have to wait and see. Well, let's take a quick break and when we come back, we're going to talk about that other contentious issue, NATO membership for Ukraine, of course, this is something that Russia opposes. We'll also be talking about the domestic crisis in Ukraine, the corruption scandal that's gripped Volodymy Zelensky's inner circ.
- [20:45]
Richard Engel
Hey, it's Sophie and Wilf from Sky News.
- [20:47]
Yalda Hakim
Too many headlines, too little time.
- [20:49]
Richard Engel
We get it. And that's why we're bringing you cheat sheet.
- [20:52]
Yalda Hakim
10 minutes every weekday morning.
- [20:54]
Richard Engel
All the big stories from politics to pop culture, minus the noise.
- [20:58]
Yalda Hakim
No doom scrolling, no spin, just the stories that matter from two people who live and breathe the new news. Cheat Sheet with bridge and Frost from Sky News.
- [21:08]
Richard Engel
Follow Cheat Sheet wherever you get your podcasts.
- [21:24]
Yalda Hakim
Welcome back. We're just going to pick up and we're going to begin by talking about NATO membership for Ukraine. Ukraine, of course, this is something that the, the Russians, you know, vehemently oppose. They want to ensure that Ukraine enshrines in its constitution a commitment not to join NATO and that NATO must adopt a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future. Now, the Ukraine, the, the EU amendments that have come in say that Ukraine can join NATO depending on the consensus of other NATO members and that NATO agrees not to permanently station TR in Ukraine. The US to offer Ukraine a security guarantee similar to Article 5, which is an attack on one, is an attack on all. So trying to sort of, you know, give concrete security measures to Ukraine in exchange for Ukraine saying, okay, you know, we won't have troops permanently stationed in Ukraine in exchange for this article.
- [22:29]
Richard Engel
File, the original draft, the Russian draft, Trump draft, draft one made it very clear, no NATO, not now, not ever. It's off the table. Forget it. But the Europeans made it very clear, saying, yes, only NATO decides NATO membership, which has been the universal position of all NATO countries except for President Trump when it comes to Ukraine. He said NATO decides NATO membership. But at the current moment, NATO members don't want Ukraine in. But that could change in the future. European countries see this as a main problem or one of the main problems for security on the continent. And President Trump, I think, sees it as a time suck, as an annoyance. If you listen to the way he describes it, he's like, oh, God, I could be doing so many other things. Why am I bothering with this? The Europeans don't have that kind of attitude because they're worried that Vladimir Putin, if he's rewarded or his successor, is gonna come back and take some of Eastern Europe and who knows where it goes from there. So they're trying to think of a longer term peace deal that makes Ukraine very, very hard to reinvade and I think Trump is looking for just a way to wrap this up, give him another peace deal. He can apply for the nobe and he can add another country to the country he's claimed that he's, you know, brought peace to.
- [24:00]
Yalda Hakim
I think we should talk about, just briefly, if we can, about the domestic problems that Ukraine is also facing. The fact that Volodymyr Zelensky is currently embroiled in a corruption scandal. The main anti corruption watchdog in the country has investigated that. Volodymyr Zelenskyy's inner circle has been getting kickbacks from the energy and defense sector at a time where we have, we are entering or we have entered winter, it's freezing cold conditions. Ukrainians are dealing with power outages, you know, electricity cuts, no heating, men and women on the front lines losing their lives on a daily basis. And up until now there was some kind of understanding that this was wartime and they were, would back and support the president even from the opposition parties, not to try and put any kind of pressure on the government. But it now appears that this kind of corruption that, you know, often people have spoken about that has gripped Ukraine has moved closer to Volodymyr Zelenskyy's inner circle. One of his closest aides, you know, his house was about to be raided and he fled to, to Israel in the last few days. So the noose is so tightening around Zelensky's inner circle. And if he doesn't get a hold on this and introduce the kind of reforms that the opposition and the public are now demanding, they want to see a complete overhaul. And those who are close to him and currently accused of getting these kickbacks to be thrown out essentially, and to be investigated and to be held accountable for what they are seemingly doing to the country. So that in itself could, could, could, you know, bring down Zelenskyy's government on top of the pressure he's facing from, from the United States and the Russians.
- [26:02]
Richard Engel
Fantastic point, Yalda. It's the worst time to have a corruption scandal. And as you mentioned, it's cold and the soldiers are dying and then you're, you're every day delivering a message about solidarity and strength and you have to pull through this for the sake of the nation. And then all these corruption scandals about stealing from defense programs and stealing from, for money that was used to support the power plant and the heating grid. I mean, the worst kinds of things. So if you're freezing in your house and then you're reading about corruption scandals that touch the power grid, you can imagine you'd be losing your mind and say, why am I going to send my son or daughter to fight for these criminals? And, and it's going to probably over time have an impact on Zelenskyy himself. I mean, he could end up being a Churchill figure that he was popular in wartime, not so much in peacetime. So both of these peace plans, by the way, call for new elections in Ukraine. So if this peace deal is reached, there will be new elections in Ukraine and we will see if Zelenskyy survives.
- [27:15]
Yalda Hakim
And as I said in Abu Dhabi, we're seeing the US army secretary right now meeting with the, the Russians. And the, the Russian delegation that has arrived has the full backing, obviously of Vladimir Putin. So we'll have to wait and see what actually happens with these talks, with these leaked plans that have now been amended, whether the Russians, Vladimir Putin actually, you know, whether we get a yes from the, the Russians. I mean, certainly the Trump administration is desperate to, to get this over the line. And if it means Ukraine having to make some uncomfortable compromises, that, that is what it has always felt like will happen. Good to see you, Richard, as always.
- [28:03]
Richard Engel
Wonderful to see you. I'll let you get back to your, your sister's wedding, otherwise she's going to be mad at you. And I'm sure the wrath will be, will be significant. But it's been great to catch up with you and great to talk all things Ukraine. Last week we were Latin America. This time, Ukraine. We will see what comes next week. Thank you everyone, for listening. Please subscribe. Please send us your emails@theworldky.uk. Hey, it's Sophie and Wilf from Sky News.
- [28:43]
Yalda Hakim
Too many headlines, too little time.
- [28:45]
Richard Engel
We get it. And that's why we're bringing you cheat sheet.
- [28:48]
Yalda Hakim
10 minutes every weekday morning.
- [28:50]
Richard Engel
All the big stories from politics to pop culture, minus the noise.
- [28:54]
Yalda Hakim
No doom scrolling, no spin, just the stories that matter from two people who live and breathe the news. Cheat Sheet with Bridge and Frost from Sky News.
- [29:04]
Richard Engel
Follow Cheat Sheet wherever you get your podcasts.