Yalda Hakim (4:23)

Yeah, Dom, I mean, the way I see it is that this isn't a strike, this is a war and it's not going to be a one off. Even today we've seen the continuation of certain targets being hit. We know that military facilities were hit, we know that the nuclear program was hit. The top brass, the top commanders that you talk about, and in my conversation with the Israeli intelligence community and establishment, they've indicated to me that this has been, as you say, 20 years in the making, that this goes back, the planning for this, having agents on the ground in Iran that's been working for them, collecting information. I mean, even the information that came out today that they had set up a sort of drone base, you know, and when I spoke, I spoke to them, I said, ah, you took a leaf out of the Ukrainians book. And they said, no, they took one out of Us, we've been at this for a couple of decades, actually trying to infiltrate, get a better sense, even luring those commanders to where they were taking out 20 or so. And I got a list of the names. I mean, we're talking top echelon here. And those, you know, people made the job of the Israelis quite easy, actually gathering in sort of one space where they were able to take them out. One of the things that the Israeli officials said to me is, it's interesting for us, the Iranians still don't know us, still don't realize what we're capable of. And this is off the back of what we saw happen to Hezbollah last year. The fact is that Iran is different. It's a different kettle of fish. But I almost wonder if they underestimated the nature and scale. And like I said, doesn't feel like a strike. It's certainly a war. And a war that Benjamin Netanyahu is now not going to back down.

Dominic Waghorn (6:03)

He's determined to win it. You're right. And if the Iranians don't fully grasp what the Israelis are about, or I think you can say the opposite's true, for the way the Israelis now effectively own the Iranians. They have penetrated Iranian society, and they have infiltrated into the ranks of the Iranian military and security apparatus, it seems extremely effectively. And I think if you listen to these Israeli security observers who are very well connected, and I think you can take their word as gospel, that's been the big step change. So, yeah, back in 2008, they began trying to work out what to do with Natanz and the other places the Iranians were burying and hiding their centrifuges and their nuclear program. They then used Stuxnet, which was this very elaborate cyber weapon that effectively got a virus into the machines, these centrifuge machines, and literally blew them up. And then since then, they've been gathering intelligence, waiting for this moment, and they have been getting deeper and deeper into Iranian society. And, you know, a lot of Israelis, their families come from Iran. You know, they were thrown out of Iran. They were Iranian Jews, but they have taught their children to speak fast. They regard themselves as Iranians, and as much as they do Israeli. And that's given the Israelis an ability to infiltrate and get their people into Iran extremely effectively. And that's obviously been helped by the fact that the regime in Tehran is now very much sort of delegitimized and doesn't have the support it used to have. And what that has given them, it seems, is a kind of an ability to observe these key commanders in real time and work out exactly when to strike them. So some were gathered, many of them were at home in their beds when they were taken out with these airstrikes that were, we assume, called in by Mossad spotters. So the Chief of Staff, the Deputy Chief of Staff, the head of the National Security Council, the head of the irgc, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, the head of the IRGC Air Force. So that's the top five or six, but another 15 or so below that. And then the top 10 Iranian nuclear scientists. And that's given them the ability to then totally destabilize and decapitate the Iranian command structure. And then they could move on to dismantling the air defences. And then they are now systematically working their way through a whole list of targets. And it's very hard for the Iranians to know what to do about it. They effectively are now stripped bare of their defences and at the mercy of the Israeli Air Force.

Yalda Hakim (8:24)

Yeah, Dom, as you pointed out, I think two things happening here, decapitating the top commanders and some of the leadership of the Revolutionary Guard and these top commanders, and dismantling the nuclear program and the military facilities. And it feels like it's those two things that were the ambition and goal of the Israelis. Are the Israelis going to push further and see this as their moment of not just dismantling the nuclear program, but actually pushing for regime change in this moment?

Dominic Waghorn (8:53)

Well, it's been pointed out that the symbol of the previous regime, the Shah's regime of the 70s in Iran, was the lion and the operation rising lion or lion rising. And some people are saying, well, maybe this is code for the Israelis saying to the Iranians, now is your moment to rise up. I think that's definitely the hope and the aspiration, but I think it's probably wishful thinking, having been there a couple of times, you know, Iranians, even if they lose the top brass, you know, there's a whole tranche of society that is on the payroll and unlikely to support any popular revolution. But I think that is the dream. And that's certainly the kind of pitch that Netanyahu was making in his speech overnight, saying he doesn't have any beef with the Iranian people, and ultimately they are two ancient peoples who have a lot in common. And ultimately they may well be reconciled in the future. But I don't think that's going to happen anytime soon.

Yalda Hakim (9:41)

Dom, we've discussed what the Israelis might be thinking, what the Iranians might be thinking after the break. We're going to talk about how the Americans might respond and hear more from what Donald Trump thinks about all of this. Welcome back to the world. We've got a special edition of the podcast. And, Dom, we've been talking about Israel's position, what's happened overnight, what Iran might be thinking. And of course, Donald Trump has been on Truth Social and he's been putting out statements, sometimes in capital letters, sometimes not. Interestingly, he said God bless you all at the end of his statement after he told Iran off. But just give us a sense of what that statement was and we should.

Dominic Waghorn (10:41)

Back up a bit, I think, shouldn't we? Just to explain, because it is very complicated. We had a nuclear deal that was brokered. Negotiations went on for years. Britain, France, Germany, America, Russia, China, all negotiating with Iran eventually came up with a nuclear deal that ended Iran's nuclear program in return for sanctions being lifted. And then Donald Trump became president in 2016 and he just pulled America out of the now, since coming back in, he's wanted to put his own deal in place and instead of having all the diplomats of all these countries, real experts in this field, he's had one man, he's had Steve Witkoff, a golf buddy of his, a real estate tycoon, but not a diplomat, negotiating with Iranians. And it simply hasn't gone very well. If you talk to Western diplomats, they just think he's had the rings run round him by the Iranians. So Donald Trump was getting frustrated and we had this sort of very important meeting between Witkoff and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghi, the foreign minister in Oman, at the weekend. And the assumption was that the Israelis were acting with the Americans to put pressure on the Iranians to make concessions in those talks. And yesterday, Donald Trump put this on Truth Social. He said, we remain committed to a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue. Now, today, in the wake of these attacks by Israel, he said, I gave Iran chance after chance to make a deal. I told them, and the strongest of words, just do it. And he said that there is still time to make this slaughter. With the next already planned attacks being even more brutal come to an end, Iran must make a deal before there's nothing left, as you say. He said, just do it in capitals before it is too late. God bless you all. So what he's saying now is that the Iranians, if they know what's good for them, will still go to Oman on the weekend and they will still make a deal and they'll concede on all those terms, that the Americans Want them to concede on. You know, from my knowledge of Iranians, it kind of works two different ways. On the one hand, the ayatollahs are very pragmatic. They want to stay in power, they want to survive. They don't want to see their nuclear program completely destroyed, and they don't want to see their country destroyed. But if they are seen to buckle to American pressure to negotiate, to make concessions, it's a massive loss of face doing that with a gun held to their heads. And that's possibly terminal for them in terms of the way the Iranian people see them and their own supporters in the regime see them. So it is an extremely difficult decision for them to make. And at the moment, on that front, diplomatically, but also on the military front, the Iranians do seem to be caught completely in headlights, not entirely sure what to do next.

Yalda Hakim (13:10)

Yeah. And as you say, the question around Donald Trump's truth, social, what he said, I think the Israelis were looking for a clear strategy. They were looking for a clear message to be conveyed from the Americans. Are you going to help out with air defenses? Are you going to resupply us should we need? This goes on and on. What is America's position going to be? And I think Marco Rubio putting out a statement and saying Israel has the right to defend itself, but this was a unilateral act and we had nothing to do with it. I think Donald Trump came coming in and saying, listen, we've got Israel's back 1000% on this and only we, we the Americans, can restrain Israel. We're not going to restrain them yet because the next time they hit you, it's going to be worse. But only we can restrain them. And the best way for you to get out of this is for to come to the negotiating table, sign this deal, end your nuclear ambitions, and everyone's happy. But as you say, I mean, this is also a face saving exercise for the Iranians. The fact that he even referred to the Iranian empire and said this could bring the empire, you know, crashing down essentially is a message to the Iranians that we are showing how weak essentially you are. I do think if we refer back to the airstrikes and the missile strikes, the ballistic missile strikes that Iran launched on Israel last year, I think it also sent two very clear messages to the Israelis, their capabilities and also where they have no capabilities. So I think it put the Israelis on notice that actually if Iran wanted to, it could overwhelm their air defenses and would the Americans come to their aid. But Dom the big question is, is Iran now in a position because it has been hit hard? This has been a devastating blow for the Iranians. Is it in a position other than these hundred drones that we're seeing, you know, directed at Israel and perhaps war missile and ballistics strikes that might head towards Israel? Is it now in a position to hit back hard? And I guess I would quote General Petraeus, I mean, how does this end?

Dominic Waghorn (15:17)

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think that currently is the million dollar. I mean, it's certainly got thousands of ballistic missiles, it's got a huge number of drones. So far, its response has been very timid. 100 drones sort of ponderously making their way very slowly towards Israel at the time of recording. Now we'll have to see what else they decide to do, but they've got a number of options and in a sense, once they strike back at Israel, America will have to come to Israel's aid. So whatever Rubio is saying, whatever Trump has said subsequently, effectively they are regarded as the Great Satan to little Satan. So, you know, Iran holds them in the same low esteem. So Iran, if it wants to up the ante, it will attack Israel, but also it'll do what it's threatened to do. It's always said if its nuclear program is attacked, it wouldn't just attack Israel, it would also attack American bases and American allies in the region. And the sort of doomsday option for Iran is to do that over the Persian Gulf. And if it really wants to focus minds in Washington and try and force Trump to call the Israelis off, it can turn the Persian Gulf into a battlefield. It can hit oil refineries, it can sink oil tankers, it can block the Straits of Hormuz with sunk oil tankers. It can even try and strike some of the American bases in the Persian Gulf. Now, that could have a pretty instantaneous disastrous effect on the price of crude. It could have a globally economic damaging effect. And that might. The Iranians might hope that that would then persuade the Americans to. Persuade the Israelis to call it off. That would be a kind of wild card from the Iranians. So far, we're just seeing them attacking Israel with limited ballistic firepower. But you suspect there's more to come?

Yalda Hakim (16:54)

Absolutely. And no doubt we'll be following all of the developments. Dom, really good to speak to you. We'll be speaking again soon. I'm planning on heading to the region this evening and I'll be back with Richard next week, usual time, with all the latest developments from the Middle east. But for now, thanks so much.

Dominic Waghorn (17:13)

Thank you. Have a good flight.

Yalda Hakim (17:14)

It.