John Bolton on Iran and China

Summary

Podcast Summary: "John Bolton on Iran and China"

The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Release Date: May 7, 2025
Guest: John Bolton, Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations and National Security Advisor

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1. Introduction

In this episode of The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim, Yalda Hakim welcomes former U.S. Ambassador John Bolton to discuss pressing international issues, including U.S. foreign policy under the Trump administration, the complexities of relations with China and Russia, and the ongoing threats posed by Iran.

2. Inside the Trump White House

Yalda opens the discussion by highlighting Bolton's extensive experience, noting his role as Donald Trump's longest-serving National Security Advisor until his resignation in 2019 due to policy disagreements.

Bolton describes his tenure in the Trump White House as tumultuous:

"Working in the Trump White House was like living inside a pinball machine." [02:43]

He criticizes the lack of delegation and advanced planning, emphasizing the dysfunctional state of the National Security Council during Trump's administration.

3. Decision-Making Under Trump

Bolton elaborates on President Trump's impulsive decision-making style, contrasting it with more structured administrations.

"Decisions and strategies aren't necessarily ones that evolve over time or are thought through. They just sort of happen because President Trump sort of thinks about them in that way." [05:39]

He cites the inconsistent implementation of tariffs as an example of this erratic approach:

"He announces tariffs against Canada and Mexico and then pauses them for 30 days... He decides to put a tariff of 100% on all foreign-made movies." [06:44]

4. Impact on International Relations

The conversation shifts to the broader implications of Trump's leadership on global economics and alliances. Bolton warns that governance dictated by presidential whims undermines established institutions and international agreements.

"If you think governing by the whim of the President is a good way to govern, get ready. Because this is what we've got." [07:17]

5. U.S.-China Relations

Bolton discusses the strained relationship between the U.S. and China, highlighting the challenges posed by China's trade practices and strategic maneuvers.

"China is the worst actor in international trade today... they've got a stronger hand... They're much better at... that kind of thinking than the U.S. Government is." [09:12]

He expresses skepticism about the effectiveness of the tariffs imposed under Trump, suggesting that China is better prepared to handle these economic conflicts.

6. U.S.-Russia Relations and Ukraine

Addressing the Ukraine conflict, Bolton critiques the Trump administration's inconsistent support for Ukraine and the administration's handling of relations with Russia.

"Putin knows how to maneuver around Trump... Trump hasn't imposed new sanctions on Russia, and yet Russia continues offensive actions." [10:57]

He also reflects on the historical context, comparing Trump's actions to previous administrations:

"Both Obama and Biden presented very weak leadership in the face of Russian aggression." [12:31]

7. Iran's Threats and Personal Security

Bolton shares his personal experiences with threats from the Iranian regime, detailing assassination plots orchestrated against him and other U.S. officials.

"President Trump had the time to cancel my Secret Service protection... This sends a very bad signal to adversaries of the United States around the world." [22:55]

He emphasizes the severity of Iran's actions, stating that attacks on U.S. officials would constitute an act of war.

8. Prospects for an Iran Deal

Discussing potential diplomatic resolutions, Bolton expresses doubts about Trump's ability to broker an effective Iran deal similar to the Obama administration's agreement.

"The negotiations have now been suspended to an indefinite date... The Israeli inclination is to strike now and destroy [Iran's nuclear capabilities]." [25:02]

He remains uncertain about the future of U.S.-Iran relations under Trump's leadership.

9. The China-Russia Axis and Future Foreign Policy

Bolton underscores the emerging alliance between China and Russia as a central threat in the 21st century. He warns that the U.S. is inadequately prepared to address this alliance and stresses the need for increased military capabilities and stronger alliances.

"A threat from China and the emerging China-Russia axis is the centerpiece of the 21st century." [27:13]

He calls for heightened concern and increased defense budgets to counter these geopolitical challenges effectively.

10. Conclusion

Yalda Hakim wraps up the conversation by acknowledging Bolton's insights into the chaotic nature of the Trump administration's foreign policy. She hints at the unpredictable nature of future U.S. international relations as shaped by Trump's unconventional leadership style.

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This episode offers a comprehensive analysis of U.S. foreign policy under President Trump, highlighting the challenges posed by erratic decision-making, strained international alliances, and persistent threats from adversarial nations. John Bolton provides a critical perspective on the implications of Trump's leadership for global stability and security.

Transcript

[John Bolton]

Foreign.

[Yalda Hakim]

Hello and welcome to the world with me, Yalda Hakim. And I'm currently in London and I'm very sorry to say but my co host, Richard Engel is currently away and won't be joining us for this week's podcast. He's on one of his Hush Hush trips and we'll find out next week what that assignment is and we'll hear more about it instead. This week I talk to John Bolton. John Bolton was the former U.S. ambassador to the United nations and then he became national security advisor to President Trump in his first administration. Between 2018 and 2019, he was Donald Trump's longest serving national security advisor, I believe until he resigned over what he says was several policy differences. He's often described as a foreign policy hawk on issues including Iran, North Korea and China. Ambassador Bolton never shies away from confrontation and in his time has made a number of enemies, not least the Iranian regime who have plotted to kill him. And he will be talking to us about that on the pod this week. And before we get started with Ambassador Bolton, make sure you follow us wherever you get your podcast, subscribe to our YouTube channel and of course, write to us. We love getting your comments and questions at the usual place, the world at Scout. Ambassador Bolton, thank you so much for joining us. We have been talking a lot on this program as well as with yourself. I mean, I spoke to you a few weeks ago on air about the fact that we have now entered beyond Trump's 100th day. And just a few days after the hundredth day, we saw President Trump's national security adviser, Mike Waltz, be pushed out of the role. And I guess it sort of gives us an insight to the fact that even though so many people are saying that Trump 2.0 is perhaps more focused, more organized, we are seeing President Trump's court in action, where people are coming and going. Just give us a sense. Because of course, you were Donald Trump's longest serving national security advisor. And it's a role that you chose to step away from just the workings, the inner workings of the Trump court.

[John Bolton]

Well, as I said in my book, working in the Trump White House was like living inside a pinball machine. I mean, compared to other presidents for whom I've worked in different capacities and further removed from being national security advisor, they were very different. Trump is everything goes through his brain. There's not good delegation of authority. There's not good advanced planning systems that are set up like the National Security council designed in 1947 to give the president greater span of Control over the huge national security bureaucracy doesn't function correctly because the president doesn't permit it to. And I take issue, though, with those who say that, that the first hundred days were a model of organization and control. They were a model of shock and awe. An awful lot came out, including things like the critical executive order changing the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America. I mean, that's how all this gets mixed together. And how much follow through there is on a lot of these announcements in the first hundred days, how many ultimately get done or not stopped by the courts or stopped by Congress, remains to be seen. I thought the Waltz ouster was a very good indication of the chaos that still reigns beneath the surface. It was very clear from the way the White House failed to react to the torrent of leaks that Waltz was being dismissed for four or five hours because they obviously didn't expect it and they weren't prepared. There's very good reporting that the decision to nominate Waltz's UN Ambassador was made on the fly sometime Thursday morning so that they could say something when they finally made a statement that made it look like business as usual. You know, you always change national security advisors every 102 days. And it's also clear they didn't have a real replacement for Waltz, which again would have been shown as indicating business normally rolling along. And that's why they named Marco Rubio as interim National Security advisor, which is completely bizarre. But I think that shows the chaos within.

[Yalda Hakim]

Yeah, you describe the first hundred days or so as shock and awe, or I've talked about it being fast and furious and yet very little gets done. And you've just given an example there about Mike Waltz then being, you know, nominated as or put into the role of UN Ambassador again, a role that you have done and that the decision was sort of made on the fly. Would you then characterize his entire foreign policy as that way as well, that things are sort of suddenly done on the fly? I mean, decisions and strategies aren't necessarily ones that evolve over time or are thought through. They just sort of happen because President Trump sort of thinks about them in that way.

[John Bolton]

That's exactly how they're made. And let's take the tariff situation, which in its early announcements obviously reflected work that had been done in the four years between Trump's two terms, but which since then has just been a question of what passes through Trump's mind on any given. So he announces tariffs against Canada and Mexico and then pauses them for 30 days. He announces the so called reciprocal tariffs on April 2 and on April 9, as the markets are tanking, puts them on pause for 90 days and then new ideas come to him. So then the past day or so he's decided he's going to put a tariff of 100% on all foreign made movies. I mean, this is really quite extraordinary and it's, it's not something that reflects well thought out, well prepared decision making options. For Trump, this just crossed his mind, probably watching a movie on Air Force One coming back to Washington, and he decided to do it.

[Yalda Hakim]

So then how big a threat do these sorts of decisions and this style of decision making become? I mean, you mentioned there about tariffs, the impact then that that has on the global economy or trying to tear things down because they, it's broken. But that means that institutions that have taken decades to build and that have very solid reputation get ripped apart with a chainsaw effectively and then not necessarily rebuilt.

[John Bolton]

Yes, I think that is what's happening. I mean, the National Security Council structure for foreign and defense policy issues is intended to be a way of getting all the agencies and departments in the US Government that have something to say about national security together to come up with a coherent way for the President to make decisions, to make sure that all the pertinent evidence is available to him that he knows what the range of options is, he knows what the pros and cons of each of the options is, and then there's a mechanism to follow up, to make sure that his decisions are being carried out. Now, ultimately the President makes a decision. There's no question about that. There's a lot of talk in the first term about adults in the room constraining him. Well, you know, if providing additional information or giving him other options is constraining him, yes, that's what we did. And sometimes he was persuaded not to do what his first thought was. But I think the pattern in the second term is that he's gotten around him advisors who are basically yes men and yes women. And so when he says, I want to rename the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, they just say, yes, sir, we'll prepare an executive order. And they don't say, well, maybe we ought to think about that for a minute, or 100% tariff on movies. This is the sort of thing that shows people are simply reacting to what Trump says. They're not giving him options. This is not a well thought out decision making process. And if you think governing by the whim of the President is a good way to govern, get ready. Because this is what we've got.

[Yalda Hakim]

Well, I guess if we then look at the great power, competition or rivalry with China, you know, he's used tariffs towards China as part of one of those, those policies. Do you believe then that this will somehow contain China or, you know, how do you think this will play out?

[John Bolton]

I, I think China is the worst actor in international trade today. I mean, it's stolen intellectual property from the United States and many other countries for three or four decades. It subsidizes its companies in competition with foreign firms. It never has really opened its domestic market for foreign competition. So there's a very good argument to have a campaign against China's practices. But normally if you're confronted with that kind of problem, the US should go to its friends and allies and say, look, you've been victimized by China for many years just as we have. Let's get together and see if we can't change its behavior. So instead of preparing for a struggle against China, Trump declares trade war against the whole world, which obviously isn't going to make it any easier to deal with China. I think the Chinese are looking at Trump and they see the chaos. Xi Jinping has met with him several times. I've been in two of those meetings at G20 gatherings during the time I was national security adviser. He's watched him talk and talk and talk and talk as Trump does. I think he knows what he's dealing with. And I think the Chinese government has game planned this out. They're much better at, at that kind of thinking that the US Government is certainly under a Trump presidency. They're far more ready for this trade conflict than we are at this point.

[Yalda Hakim]

Do you think though that Donald Trump's sort of madman approach to these sorts of things and the fact that he likes to show that he is unpredictable is something that the Chinese, and frankly the Russians would find slightly alarming because they're not quite sure where he could end up going with all of this.

[John Bolton]

Well, I think they believe they can manipulate him. I think certainly that's Vladimir Putin's view. You know, the madman theory derived from the conversation between Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger where Nixon basically said to Kissinger, you go tell the Chinese this guy Nixon has been so hardline anti communist for decades, there's no telling what he might do. And the threat was credible because Nixon had built his entire political reputation in the early days on the Alger Hiss case and Whitaker chambers, and that he was a hard line anti communist. The Chinese knew that and they thought against them he might take the strongest possible steps. Whereas with Trump, who has no philosophy at all, the madman theory is not credible. He's erratic and unpredictable. But that is to the advantage, I think, of the adversary, because when you behave that way, the people you upset the most are your own allies who are not sure that they can count on you. And I think that's how the Chinese see it. I think Vladimir Putin, who's had more contact with Trump and former KGB agent that he is, has very successfully manipulated Trump in this recent effort over the past couple of months to get a ceasefire in Ukraine. Trump has not imposed new sanctions on Russia, and yet Russia's just tapped Trump along, continuing the offensive, using missiles against Ukraine cities on Palm Sunday, for goodness sake. And Trump doesn't do anything about it. So I think there's good evidence that Putin knows how to maneuver around Trump.

[Yalda Hakim]

Do you think that it's not just Trump, though. Putin knew how to maneuver around the likes of Obama and, frankly, Joe Biden as well. And it was in Trump's first administration that he did put quite tough sanctions on the Russians and gave, at that point, the Ukrainians, the javelins and the sorts of equipment they needed that Obama wasn't doing.

[John Bolton]

Well. I think it's accurate to say that both Obama and Biden presented very weak leadership in the face of the Russian aggression. The west as a whole badly failed after the first invasion of Ukraine in 2014 to impose sanctions or really take any strong measures against Russia. And it left the impression in the Kremlin that they did it once. They didn't succeed nearly to the extent they wanted to, but they basically got away with it. And it laid the foundation to think if they did it again, they could get away with it again. What Trump did in his first term by providing lethal military assistance to Ukraine was to deliberately contrast himself with Barack Obama, who had declined to do that. So whatever Obama did, Trump wanted to do the opposite, and he did on the sanctions. It is also true that significant sanctions were imposed on Russia in Trump's first term. I can say, at least from the time I was there with Trump kicking and screaming all the way, that he didn't want to do it, but persuaded that the statutory authority we had basically required him to take these measures. Now, he later took credit for it, but behind the scenes, he was not at all happy about having to do it.

[James Matthews]

The first 100 days might be over, but President Trump is showing no signs of slowing down.

[John Bolton]

America will soon be greater than ever before.

[James Matthews]

So we're continuing to follow every twist and turn of this remarkable presidency and.

[Maltee Kalner]

Trying to make sense of what it all means for the US and for the rest of the world.

[James Matthews]

So join me, James Matthews, me, Maltee Kalner, and me, Mark Stein for Sky News, Trump 100, wherever you get your podcast.

[Yalda Hakim]

What do you think of the, the minerals deal then that the Ukrainians have signed with President Trump with the United States now? You know, do you think that this was a clever sort of thing that Zelenskyy did, especially after that blow up to ensure that Donald Trump feels like he has a stake in this now, given that, you know, he has this deal that he thinks he's gotten out of the Ukrainians?

[John Bolton]

Yeah, look, I think it was a positive step, certainly for Ukraine. I do think it now gets zelensky beyond the February 28 debacle in the Oval Office. I think at least as the terms of the deal have been reported, they're much, much more equitable for Ukraine than the original terms, which appear to be. Basically, the United States takes over all underground mineral deposits in Ukraine, and it did result in the freeing up of some $50 million of military assistance that Trump had held back. I think there's language in the deal that's favorable to Ukraine in terms of the destruction that Russia deniably caused in Ukraine. And so all in all, I think it's a step forward. But there's almost nothing that locks Trump into a long term position. His decisions are transactional and episodic. So I think Zelensky signs the mineral deal, Trump releases the $50 million. Now you turn the page and it's a blank page again. And the next thing Trump will say to Zelensky is, what have you done for me recently?

[Yalda Hakim]

So then, in your opinion, what is the end game here with Ukraine? How does this conflict actually end, do you think?

[John Bolton]

It's not clear. I think the Kremlin thinks the momentum is still on their side. And militarily I think it is, although very narrowly. The immediate issue is whether Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are serious that they might back away from the effort to get a ceasefire. As they've said repeatedly over the past couple of weeks, I don't think that would make much difference because I don't think the ceasefire negotiations are going anywhere anyway. But the real question is, if they back away from the diplomacy, would that also mean a halt to US Military assistance and provision of intelligence? I hope not. I think that is very important to continue. But if Trump were to stop it, it would be at that point imperative that the European governments make up the difference, and I'm not sure that they can. So we're still waiting on developments from inside the Trump administration, and I don't know of any safe prediction what that will be at this point. So for Ukraine, it means continued uncertainty.

[Yalda Hakim]

Ambassador, do you think you describe the situation within and you've been in it as chaotic and Donald Trump thinks about something and then he tries to enact it as some kind of policy and asks all these people around him to try and make it happen. Do you think then in this moment of sort of chaos and unpredictability in Donald Trump's White House, there are opportunities because they don't operate in a conventional way? I mean, you've got Steve Witkoff, you know, a real estate guy, floating around the world trying to strike deals, whether that's, you know, in Gaza between Israel and Hamas or with the Russians and the Ukrainians, or even trying to resurrect the JCPOA and give it some kind of Trump seal of approval.

[John Bolton]

Right. Well, that I think is there are opportunities there for our adversaries. I think Witkoff is a good example. He knows nothing about the Israel, Hamas conflict. I'm not sure knew where the Gaza Strip was before he got that assignment. He knows nothing about Russia or Ukraine. He knows nothing about Iran nuclear weapons or international arms control and non proliferation. When you send somebody like that out to negotiate with some pretty savvy, wily negotiators on the other side, you're asking for trouble. And I'm afraid that's in part what's happened certainly in the Ukraine, where we've had the most evidence is that Putin has used Wyckoff as a vehicle for his propaganda and to directly influence Trump. So that anybody who knows anything about Ukraine and Russia and the conflict as a whole is only marginally involved in US Decision making.

[Yalda Hakim]

Ambassador, I want to ask you about Iran here in the UK Just over the last few days, the UK authorities have made a number of arrests of Iranian nationals over an alleged terror plot. You've been at the receiving end of Iranian death threats, and we've seen plots being unfoiled, foiled in the United States as well. Just tell us specifically about your experience. And then of course, the wider terror network network that the Iranian regime is believed to run in Western states, especially in the United States. And now here in the uk, these.

[John Bolton]

Alleged plots, I think Iran's terror network is really quite extensive in Europe and in the United States and directed in large part against the Iranian diaspora. The many Iranians who have fled the country over the years are been outside of it who would like to see a change of government in Tehran. They've targeted a number of these people using Eastern European criminal gangs and others. It's interesting. The arrest in the UK at least has been reported so far. Are Iranian nationals, at least one reportedly with pretty close ties to the government. And they're doing the same sort of thing in the United States. They've gone after Masihad, a well known Iranian diaspora opponent of the regime. Salman Rushdie, attacked a couple of years ago again under the fatwa against him. And then a number of now mostly former US Government officials in response to the US Strike against Qasem Soleimani, the head of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, back in January of 2020. So this in particular, since it involves me as one of the targets, I should say President Trump is at the top of the list of their targets. And in fact, a Pakistani national was arrested last year right around the time of the election, trying to hire hitmen to go after Trump. That was the same sort of model that Iran used against me. And I can talk about it because the Justice Department filed criminal charges against an IRGC officer named Shahram pursafi back in 2022 for trying to hire a hitman to assassinate me. Unfortunately for Persafi, he was talking to an FBI confidential source who took all this down and got enough to form the basis for criminal charges and then ultimately an arrest warrant that was given to Interpol. Not that I expect we're ever going to see this guy in the United States for trial, but that's how elaborate the effort was. And I'm not the only person. In addition to Trump, other former cabinet officials are targets of the Iranians. And this really is unprecedented because we're not being targeted because we're dissidents from Iran, but because of things that were done carrying out our official duties. So there's a good argument. And in fact, the Biden administration made this point that if Iran did succeed in attacking one of us, it would be considered an act of war against the United States. That's really dangerous behavior.

[Yalda Hakim]

Do you feel exposed and unsafe?

[John Bolton]

Sure. At this point, I mean, I had protection from the Secret Service going back to late 2021 that President Biden ordered because of this threat. I mean, this is, we're not talking, I should say here about Internet chatter or, you know, anonymous death threats. This was based on substantial intelligence that we and other countries had collected on this. But on what one might have felt was a pretty busy Inauguration Day. President Trump had the time to cancel my Secret Service protection, which nobody's entitled to anything, in my view. But it sends a very bad signal to adversaries of the United States around the world that their adversaries in American government can be left that exposed. I've made my own arrangements now in lieu of the Secret Service. But it was something that showed, I think, the character of Trump, the man that he did it, and not just against me, but he removed the protection for former Secretary of State Pompeo, former Secretary of Defense Esper, and a number of others. So this, as I say, it's going to have an effect on decision making in Trump's own administration when people who had our jobs see what happens to them if you fall out of Trump's favorite.

[Yalda Hakim]

And have you spoken to, as you say, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo or others about how they feel about the fact that their protection is gone?

[John Bolton]

Well, I've talked to a number, and I think our feeling is pretty generally shared, and I think it's shared by a lot of people in Congress, Republicans and Democrats alike. I mean, I've had calls from people that I've never met before saying it's outrageous what Trump did. How can we help? And I don't know anybody other than die hard Trump supporters who think it was a good idea. You know, Secret Service protection, in my case, is not a perquisite of office. This is not some freebie that people would want to enjoy. I'd like nothing better than to hear that the Iranian government had fallen and there was no more threat against me, and I wouldn't need any protection at all. That would be the ideal circumstance, not having Secret Service protection.

[Yalda Hakim]

I've got a couple more questions for you, and I know we have a couple more minutes. The first is, do you think that Donald Trump will get this Iran deal over the line? Will it look more or less like the Obama deal, but he'll say that it's his version and it's a better version?

[John Bolton]

Yeah. It would put Trump in a very difficult position politically because I think Republicans remain overwhelmingly convinced that the, The Obama administration 2015 deal with Iran was a very bad idea. If Trump came up with essentially the updated version of it, I don't think their opinion would change. I think he would come under enormous political criticism. And while it's hard to predict, it's clear that Iran wants to buy time. Their terrorist proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels in Yemen have taken a terrible Pounding the Assad regime in Syria has fallen. Israel has done substantial damage to Iran's ballistic missile program and other facilities inside Iran. They need relief. They want these negotiations to drag out so that they can recover somewhat. And I really, I find it hard to believe Trump will allow himself to be taken down that road. The negotiations have now been suspended to an indefinite date. Trump goes to the Middle east next week. He's in Saudi, UAE and gutter May 13 to 16. We'll see what happens on that trip. But once he comes back, both the US View and the Israeli view of what they're going to do about Iran's nuclear weapons program remains very much up in the air. And I think the Israeli inclination is to strike now and destroy it before Iran actually gets nuclear weapons and thereby does pose what the Israelis, I think, rightly consider an existential threat.

[Yalda Hakim]

You've also described China as an existential threat. Do you still believe that? And if you were to name the one foreign policy issue that Donald Trump you think might face over the course of the next few years and might define this presidency, what do you think that might be?

[John Bolton]

Well, I think a threat from China and the emerging China, Russia axis is the centerpiece of the 21st century. We've seen the Chinese threat manifested along its Indo Pacific periphery. Taiwan, obviously one target, the South China Sea, another, potentially the long disputed border line of actual control with India. And the United States is currently not really adequately prepared to deal with this emerging threat. I think our allies like Japan, South Korea and others are very worried. We need a lot more naval warships than we have now and a lot of other capabilities that I hope an increase in the defense budget will provide. So while Trump would love to find a way to negotiate the biggest trade deal in history with Xi Jinping, the Chinese Communist Party may conclude they've got a stronger hand. And the threat to their countries in their immediate zone, I think over the next several years is going to be very real. So this is something that I think should concern all of us. I think, particularly in Europe. I think the level of concern should be increased.

[Yalda Hakim]

Ambassador Bolton, it's always great to talk to you and thank you again.

[John Bolton]

Thanks for having me.

[Yalda Hakim]

That was Ambassador John Bolton. Richard will be back with us again next week to tell us all about his most recent trip. Thank you so much for listening, and goodbye.

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[James Matthews]

The first 100 days might be over, but President Trump is showing no signs of slowing down.

[John Bolton]

America will soon be greater than ever.

[James Matthews]

Before, so we're continuing to follow every twist and turn of this remarkable president.

[Maltee Kalner]

Residents and trying to make sense of what it all means for the US and for the rest of the world.

[James Matthews]

So join me, James Matthews, me, Monica Kalma and me, Mark Stone for Sky News Trump 100. Wherever you get your podcasts.