← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Peacemaker? Warmaker? Kingmaker? Trump 2.0 in the world
00:31:38
Donald Trump has already made it clear there will be a seismic shift in foreign policy when he is President. Will there be less funding for Ukraine? Where does Trump 2.0 leave the war in Gaza? What will that alleged Iranian assassination attempt on...
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- [00:01]
A
Hello, and welcome to the world. I'm Yalda and I've just returned from Washington, D.C. i'm back in London and.
- [00:08]
B
Me, Richard Engel now in Amman, Jordan.
- [00:11]
A
On this episode of the podcast, we'll be looking at Donald Trump's decisive win and what it means for foreign policy in specific.
- [00:19]
B
What about this alleged assassination plot by Iran to kill Donald Trump? Is it now personal? Will he be even more hawkish and.
- [00:29]
A
The implications on the wider region? Qatar has just asked Hamas to shut down its political office because they're going nowhere when it comes to the ceasefire deal.
- [00:40]
B
And Ukraine, are they about to be cut off? And is the war as they've known it for nearly three years over?
- [00:52]
A
Make sure you're following us wherever you're listening and you can watch us on our YouTube channel. And of course, if you want to send us questions, it's theworldsky.uk.
- [01:22]
B
So I think over the course of the coming weeks, we clearly are going to be talking about what Donald Trump means and what it means, what his presidency will mean for the world. But let's, let's dive into some specifics. One is a story that you first raised and you thought it was important way back then about.
- [01:41]
A
You're not the only one that gets predictions right, Richard.
- [01:44]
B
No, absolutely. You nailed this one right from the beginning. You said, watch this space. This alleged assassination plot by Iran allegedly to kill President Trump. The FBI released some details. Is this now going to harden his already hawkish position? Is it now personal? They wanted allegedly to kill him. So what is he going to do with Iran?
- [02:10]
A
That's right. So several weeks ago, you and I talked about the fact that the Iranians had their eyes set on Donald Trump. It wasn't just a conspiracy. You know, the Justice Department, the FBI, had warned not just Donald Trump, but a number of people who were part of his National Security Council, the people who were around him when he was president the first time round, following the killing of the top Iranian general, Qassem Soleimani, who was killed in Iraq. And the Iranians said, look, we want to avenge his death. And anyone who was involved in the killing of Qassem Soleimani, including Donald Trump and a handful of people.
- [02:51]
B
So, Yalda, do you want to give us a few details about this case?
- [02:55]
A
Yeah. So, Farhad Shaqeri, this man in his 50s, of Afghan descent, who is now believed to be at large in Iran, he'd been tasked by the Iranians given about a week to come up with a plan to assassinate former president, now President elect Donald Trump and he says that he couldn't come up with a good enough plan to kill the former president at the time. And he said that he'd informed the Iranians, look too hard to do it now. But once he loses the election, and apparently the Iranians were convinced he was going to lose the election, this will become easier. He is enemy number one for the Iranians given the killing of Qasem Soleimani. And so this is all part of this wider thing that you and I have been talking about, you know, not just on Donald Trump, but people that you and I know of who were part of, you know, Donald Trump's National Security Council. And one particular person, and I'm actually going to reveal his name because his name is everywhere now. Matt Pottinger, who is someone that you and I know who basically had to change the face of his entire home, his security, his family. You know, his family have talked about, you know, having to get extra security around their home because they'd been given, they'd been threatened directly. And this is a conversation that I had length with him and his wife. And one of the things that they said that they felt quite frustrated about was that they hadn't been given extra security or assistance because, you know, they weren't seen as sort of part of the, the top echelon of people that needed to be protected.
- [04:39]
B
And there were direct threats against him. But this plot that was on, unsealed by the, by the Justice Department with, with against Donald Trump, there's, it seems I'm a little bit skeptical of it. Let's just say that I'm not saying the FBI are lying, I'm not saying they're making it up, but if you go through the details, it doesn't make a lot of sense. It seems so amateur hour that this 51 year old guy who'd been in jail in the US is gonna recruit a couple of other ex con buddies of his from jail. And he's got a week to come up with an assassination plot.
- [05:20]
A
I mean, and I'm going to say it back, I mean, because, you know, that's the thing, right? Do you remember Adel Al Jubeir, the Saudi ambassador, and how the Iranians had plotted to kill him. And then of course, following the death of the killing of Qasem Soleimani, there was a plot again by the Iranians to kill a handful. We've just been talking about it and now this, this bit of detail comes in and it does feel like amateur.
- [05:45]
B
Hour, but the worst kind of amateur hour You've got this guy who spent some time for robbery. He's gonna take two of his co conspirators who are also kind of petty criminals, and they're gonna, in a week, this is their mission. According to him, according to the FBI, they're gonna find out how to kill the President. And according to the FBI, he was also then tasked with carrying out plots against Jewish targets in, was it Southeast Asia? What does he possibly know about Southeast Asia? Like he's suddenly this masterman. He's the, he's the Jackal, and he's going to go around like. I just didn't find it believable. It sounded totally implausible.
- [06:29]
A
None of it really adds up. But to be honest, I put it down to just the amateur hour that is the spirit particular regime.
- [06:35]
B
But the question is, it's out there now. So is this going to be a pretext? Just because I think it sounds like a bunch of BS doesn't mean that it's not going to be personal to you that Trump is going to say, these guys tried to kill me and I'm going to, you know, show them what's what.
- [06:56]
A
Yeah. So it's interesting because I had a lot of conversations in Washington, D.C. and I think it's, it's this past week has been quite extraordinary actually, in terms of attitude towards what's going on and what Donald Trump's foreign policy is likely to look like. There is definitely a camp within the Republican Party, current and former, former people who are very much in the bomb Iran camp.
- [07:24]
B
Oh, yes, totally agree. I'm doing that as well.
- [07:27]
A
And then you've got the other side, the loyalists, the MAGA lot, who are very much like, why are we starting another war? Why are we going into another conflict? Why are we laying the groundwork for a confrontation with Iran? Last week I was in D.C. and the conversations I was having with people was very much that Mike Pompeo was in the running and the front runner to become. And when I say Mike Pompeo, I mean obviously the former Secretary of State, he was also CIA. For Donald Trump, his name was like top of the list to become Defense Secretary. Right. He's one of the few people who.
- [08:08]
B
Served in the former administration who didn't then go around and trash Trump, who didn't call him a fascist. He kind of stayed relatively loyal in the background. He didn't, even though he didn't say.
- [08:20]
A
Everything, presidential ambitions very much earlier on in the race. Right Then he dropped out. And even on the night that Donald Trump declared Victory alongside thanking Elon Musk and Joe Rogan. The podcaster Mike Pompeo got a shout out as well. Then as I'm boarding the plane, I see this, this tweet from Donald Trump on, well, not a tweet, but a statement on truth social, saying to Mike Pompeo, you will not be considered as part of my new cabinet. Now this to me indicated that all of the conversations I'd been having in dc, all of the conversations that the Blob. The Blob was having, and I'm talking about people right high up there, including foreign diplomats who are very much engaged and involved in the Trump camp and having conversations with the Trump camp.
- [09:12]
B
The Blob, you call them the Blob. These are educated, serious professionals, intellectuals, New York Times reporters, analysts at important think tanks. But they're all, I think they're all misreading Trump. Not all, many are misreading Trump.
- [09:26]
A
They're misreading Trump, Richard. And not just that, you suddenly realize who's got the upper hand. You know what we know about Donald Trump and very few people know much about what he's thinking at any given time. He loves to divide and conquer.
- [09:38]
B
He's gonna go through these people like, you know, clean shirts. When one is done, he's gonna throw it aside and he's gonna put on the next one. They're gonna be laundry. And it almost doesn't matter. It's all about him because he'll use you, he'll use whatever advisor that can serve him. And then when that advisor doesn't agree with him, he'll kick him out. That's the way he did it last time. And I think you're going to see more of that next time. So if we try and chase his cabinet and try and figure out which leader he's going to choose, one that assumes he's going to choose one and stick with him or her. And the other is that he's going to listen to them. I think it's really just a one man show and people don't quite get it. And I think it's obvious from the outside. But if you cover politics in DC, you've spent a lifetime understanding the ins and outs and who's in and who's going to influence him and the power in the background, then I think they're misreading a one man show.
- [10:39]
A
If we're thinking about what his attitude is going to be towards Iran, I think even though it's, it's now become personal where it's being revealed Over a long time that Donald Trump is on a hit list. And there have been assassination attempts on his life by the Iranians. And there was a plot and there was a plan.
- [10:58]
B
Do you remember President Bush, one of the reasons he invaded Iraq was because it came personal. They tried to kill my daddy. He said that. Because there was allegedly an assassination plot by Saddam Hussein to kill Bush Sr. And that was later on used as a pretext.
- [11:15]
A
The question is then, Richard, what will the policy towards Iran be? Will Donald Trump treat this as something personal? I, having spent a week in D.C. and I know you've been speaking to people as well, from the conversations I've been having with those who have been in D.C. and are part of the establishment, they are like, go after Iran, smash them hard. Teach them a lesson. They're two weeks away from, from the obtaining a nuclear, nuclear bomb. You know, according to Antony Blinken.
- [11:49]
B
Yeah, that's another figure that keeps slipping. Oh, it's two weeks from a bomb, but two weeks from having enough material, then assembling the bomb. That's another one of these very squishy numbers.
- [11:59]
A
And the question is, what will the policy be towards Iran? When we hear all of these things, will the wing of the Republican Party who are pushing for full confrontation with Iran win, or will it be the Don Juniors, the Tucker Carlsons, the BRIDGE Colby's, the J.D. vance's, who are showing loyalty to Donald Trump and saying, hey, let's not, let's be careful before we get into another confrontation. Let's be careful before we confront Iran.
- [12:29]
B
Well, apparently he said he doesn't want to push for regime change. And let's also not forget what Benjamin Netanyahu wants. Benjamin Netanyahu wants strong action against Iran. He's already said that, that he wants to build on this Abraham Accord. So the Abraham Accord was the signature foreign policy move in the Middle east by the Trump administration, with Jared Kushner forging this peace deal between Israel and the uae and they hope Saudi Arabia, and they want this to become a Arab Israel alliance to redefine the Middle East. And Prime Minister Netanyahu talks about this all the time, that there's got to be this new Middle east with Israel and its Arab partners in this Abraham Accord setting the tone, dominating the region. And Iran is cast aside. Bibi's already doing that, trying to take Iran's, rip out Iran's claws in Gaza. He's ripping out the Hezbollah's military capacity. And will the next step be a harder military action against Iran, its nuclear facilities and oil facilities. I think that's very possible.
- [13:41]
A
And I've been told that in his conversation, Donald Trump, the conversation he had with Benjamin Netanyahu, he said to him that by January 20, I want the bombs to stop in both Gaza and Lebanon. Donald Trump, I don't think really thinks about, okay, what does the day after look like and who pays for the cleanup of Gaza and who rebuilds and who deals with the problems post conflict ending. What he cares about, though, is that he made certain pledges and promises about ending conflicts. And he's made it very clear to Benjamin Netanyahu, I want things to end and finish it by January 20, which is obviously inauguration.
- [14:24]
B
You naturally transitioned us to Gaza and where you're going to Qatar, because Qatar, just to have this conversation, enough of this. But keep going on this because we're now, we're heading in that direction. So you've heard and I've heard that he wants to wrap up the war in Gaza.
- [14:40]
A
Correct.
- [14:40]
B
And he wants the war in Lebanon to wrap up as well. And that he's going to get, you know, he's going to say, I look at the great peacemaker that I am.
- [14:48]
A
Yeah. And in the last 48 hours, we've also heard that, you know, Hamas has had a political office in Doha for well over a decade because the Americans asked them, ask the Qataris to keep Hamas there so that they've got someone to negotiate with and somewhere to negotiate. They have an address. And also before this war in Gaza, it was the Qataris paying for salaries of teachers and aid workers and hospitals and infrastructure in Gaza via the Netanyahu government.
- [15:17]
B
The Israelis said, we're going to use you, Qatar, to get money to Hamas, which was the government in Gaza, so that the people don't all starve. And Israel thought, okay, they're getting enough money that they're never going to launch anything big. They were wrong because Hamas ended up launching the October 7 attacks. But Qatar felt they were blamed for Hamas's presence, even though everybody was saying, could you please have this office there so that it's a window or an outreach or a, you know, a way to deal with, with, with, with, with Hamas. And then they, they stepped into the role of mediator. And every time the negotiations failed, they were being blamed for that, too.
- [16:00]
A
Yes.
- [16:00]
B
So they said, this isn't worth it. Trump could easily blame them. Guilt by association. So I wasn't surprised at all when they said, you know what, we're hanging this up. We're not. We, we, we've gotten, we've had enough of this. You know, it's just a liability for us. It's bad news for the hostages, though.
- [16:16]
A
Absolutely. Really bad news, because there's no a, there's no contact person. But who is it that the Israelis, the Qataris are now speaking to that can drive and lead the negotiations? So we have 60 or plus Israeli hostages still stuck in Gaza and there doesn't feel like there is anything now in terms of hostage negotiation and ceasefire. And that's why a Mike Pompeo, you know, seasoned politician, friend of the Qataris, friend of Israel, friend of the Emiratis, friend of the Saudis, someone who could move between these different complicated deals and conversations, was a good thing as far as all of these countries were concerned. But now the fact that Tucker Carlson is saying, stop, Pompeo, you know, and launching this campaign alongside Don Jr.
- [17:05]
B
This is palace intrigues and palace fights are going to be byzantine over the next four years. Within that, the court around. Would you want to know what I, what I've heard about his plans for ending the Gaza war? What I think is going to happen, according to people I've been speaking to that are close to Trump, is that he, yes, he wants this to, to be over. He wants Bibi to stop bombing. It's, it's a liability for him. It's a liability, you know, for, for lots of, for lots of different reasons, not least of which it's, it's tremendously devastating for people of Gaza. But it doesn't mean that the war is going to be over. It's probably going to mean the end of major combat operations, which means the tank divisions can pull out, the reservists can go home. Trump can say, look, what I did. I declared, I got them to end the war. It's not going to be the end of the war. It's going to be the end of major combat operations, but there's still going to be commando raids. There's still, the hostages, I presume, are going to be in there. There's still going to be military raids going on in Gaza. It's still going to be divided. So if you're living in Gaza, okay, you're still going to live in a prison, in a supermax prison, a tighter prison than existed before the October 7 attacks. And Trump's going to say, look, I ended the war. I ended the war. I want a Nobel Peace Prize. And BB is going to say, well, after tremendous sacrifice, and we didn't want to do this, but our great friend over in the White House convinced us to do this. And we have to respect the opinions. If you live in Gaza, your life is still going to be miserable, beyond miserable. But it won't be the same. The war as we've known it up until now.
- [18:53]
A
Yeah. Which, as you know, we've been saying is something that frankly could happen with Ukraine as well. Stay with us. We're just going to have a quick break and then we can talk about Ukraine.
- [19:19]
B
Welcome back. Yalda, you mentioned Ukraine. Let's get right into it. What do you think is going to happen to Ukraine? I'm speaking to Ukrainians. They're very nervous that things are going to change, that they're going to be cut off by Trump.
- [19:34]
A
We know that Donald Trump has spoken to Vladimir Putin. And one of the things that he apparently said in that conversation was just a reminder of our military power and the presence that we have in Europe in terms of your next moves as far as Ukraine is concerned. And start to think about winding this down, which again, while I was in Washington, the conversations I had around Ukraine. So we keep hearing from the Trump camp that they, when they think about foreign policy, they think about peace through escalation, peace through showing extreme power. That is kind of the way that Trump wants to view the world and his foreign policy. So as far as Ukraine is concerned, I've been told that what they want to do in the first instance is to saturate Ukraine with weapons to give them absolutely everything that they want. And they've been critical of the Biden administration for not giving them the good stuff fast. So this is what I'm hearing, is that they're going to saturate them with everything that the Ukrainians want and need, because Trump wants winners. He wants to be able to give them leverage when they're at the negotiating table so that they are in within a few months with the proviso that Ukraine is in a position that it is, has the upper hand because as we know, it's now a war of attrition, that Russia is frankly winning. So saturate, give, give the Ukrainians what they need. And they've been, again, critical of the Biden administration for not doing this and driven feeding them with stuff, which is.
- [21:01]
B
Also, which is true, true, by the way. US Policy against Ukraine is cruel. Everyone is like, it's totally cruel. Every time I go to Ukraine, I see more injured Ukrainian soldiers. I see more tables of, of young women alone because there are not enough men. The men are out fighting or they're injured. So you see scenes that look like, I don't know, Rome or Paris in the early 1950s because they're just, they're not enough men. The men are getting wiped out in the war.
- [21:36]
A
And the conversations that whenever we've gone to Ukraine, and I know you've had the same conversations, including with President Zelensky and the Defense Minister and various others, is that they are not giving us what we need fast enough. This is where our frustration lies.
- [21:50]
B
And he's been saying that from day one. You give someone enough to keep fighting, but not to win. That's not a really kind policy. It means I'm going to give you enough just so that you can get yourself injured or killed but not actually win.
- [22:05]
A
But they're giving you half of what you need. Right. They described it to me as giving you an iPhone without a charger, giving you an iPhone without a SIM card and saying, oh, oh, you need a SIM as well. Oh, well, that's going to take six.
- [22:17]
B
Months, six more months to get.
- [22:19]
A
Exactly. And then we need someone to train to fix the, you know, the phone.
- [22:22]
B
So I'm here in for Ukraine. He wants to ramp up, flood the place with weapons and then go to Vladimir Putin saying, come on, we gotta end this. But the difference I heard is he wants Europeans to do it. That he wants Europeans to send in their weapons. He wants. Not necessarily. He might float, flood the zone with American weapons, but he wants it to come from Europe. And then.
- [22:45]
A
Because frankly, they think it's Europe's problem. Right.
- [22:47]
B
And then you go to Vladimir Putin and say, exactly, exactly, say Europe. You know, they're taking this seriously. They're flooding it with weapons. You're going to have a long term problem with this. I can solve this. And go to. Go to Putin and say, I can solve this. But he wants those weapons, the flooding of the zone, to come from Europe so that he can present himself as a bit of a middleman.
- [23:09]
A
Exactly. And that is being the kind of focus for Trump. So all of those, I mean, who knows, again, what Trump, Trump will do? Right? But, but all of those people who are like, he's going to throw in the towel in both the Middle east and Ukraine and turning.
- [23:24]
B
Well, ultimately you're throwing in the towel.
- [23:26]
A
But you're just doing it as Afghanistan. Right. It could be his Afghanistan. Biden's approval rating dropped after pulling out from Afghanistan. It was disastrous. And you handed the keys back to the Taliban.
- [23:36]
B
But that was. He could do that in a sloppy way, just like, okay, we're out of here, goodbye, turn off the engine and leave. He could do that, which is what Biden did in Afghanistan, which was, you know. Well, we've seen, we've discussed that and we've seen what happened, but I'm not hearing that, I'm hearing more like you, this, this, this off ramp, but ultimately leads to the end of the war as we knew it.
- [23:57]
A
Exactly, exactly. So I think that in that sense, the, apparently in the conversation that Volodymy Zelensky had with, with Trump and Elon Musk was part of that conversation, he was somewhat reassured by what he, he was basically told exactly what, apparently what we were. We don't want you to necessarily lose this war. We've invested up until this point. This isn't an endless war that we're going to keep funding. So we are going to give you what you need in the first instance. Your job is to win.
- [24:31]
B
Frankly. There's also a growing realization among people I'm speaking to in Ukraine that what they're doing right now isn't working, that they're not going to get back these territories by military means alone. They're throwing their best young men and some young women at this fight. The fabric of society is being torn. There are long term consequences, demographic consequences of this, and many are willing to give up territory. But you know what they want? They want some sort of security guarantees that this isn't going to happen again in a year or two. So, okay, we have to give up some land, fine, we can accept that. We can swallow this very bitter pill. We want the investment to come in so we can build a successful economy and make it so that the people sacrificed and got something in return. But they also want defense agreements. They want lots of weapons. They wanted something to make it difficult, if not impossible, for Vladimir Putin to come back in, you know, a year, two years, three years. And okay, he took 20% the first time, take another 30 or 40% next time or all of it. That's what they want. I don't know if Trump is going to give it to him, though.
- [25:47]
A
Well, that's the thing. And I think that, you know, it's what we've been saying over the course of the last few weeks. Trump is unpredictable. It can be chaotic. He likes to divide and conquer. Right now, the policies we're hearing are of those of the likes of Bridge Colby, I think, who's now being named as potential National Security advisor, who very much has a MAGA outlook when it comes to places like Ukraine. Like, we should not be fighting Europe's war. We should be focusing on great power, competition and rivalry with China. And that is what we need to, we need. We can only fight one war at a time. So we should not be threatening or confronting Iran. We should not be fighting Europe's war in Ukraine. We should be preparing for a confrontation without crossing red lines with China. But for now, what we're hearing and seeing are these guys and those loyal to Trump have the upper hand in terms of where they see America and its foreign policy going.
- [26:48]
B
I think anybody who's going to work for Trump is going to have a short job because as soon as things go, go badly, it's your fault. You know, it's not his fault, somebody else's fault. So I think there's going to be a lot of turnover there. But that is just a long term prediction. What about. Which is becoming one of our favorite segments here. I want to call it a signature segment. But maybe what do you think is going to come and should we do our predictions now?
- [27:13]
A
Yeah, let's do our predictions. Do you want to go first?
- [27:16]
B
Oh, you put a spot on me. All right. I'm going to go with, with Ukraine. The, the North Korean troops that we talked about are now in place, about 12,000 of them. They're training with the Russians and they're effectively cannon fodder. All they need to learn is how to use artillery and take some training, but not much. This is not years or even months and months of training. We're talking about days and weeks of training. They're in position. I would suspect that they're going to be in action soon in Kursk. So those North Korean troops that have been getting a little bit of prep time with their Russian counterparts, I think they're going to be going into action soon to try and take back that piece of territory in Russia that Zelensky grabbed.
- [28:08]
A
So I think, you know, my prediction, what we're going to see within the next couple of weeks or eight weeks is Trump very much driving and beginning to drive his policies through drip feeding to the media and leaking things. So these sorts of conversations that we're hearing, that he's had conversations with dozens of world leaders, that everyone is now kissing the ring or changing policy and changing tact and the likes of conversations with the likes of Putin and Netanyahu and these things are starting to leak.
- [28:40]
B
So he becomes president before inauguration.
- [28:42]
A
Correct.
- [28:43]
B
Here we go. Here we go. This is the end of the first week of, I don't wanna say that this is the rest of your life, but it's the first week of a new era. So we will Be watching. And Yalda, again, great to see you. Great to be in touch.
- [29:01]
A
Before I let you go, though, Richard, we have some questions, some of them we've answered. So George says, what will happen for the US European relations following the election? And I think that Trump views everything like a transaction. And the issue here that the Europeans have is that he speaks to them in the same way that he speaks to adversaries. So whether it's the Russians or the Chinese, you know, he uses the same language. So I don't necessarily think that the relations will plummet, but I do think that they will be more cautious. We saw Mark Rutter, the Secretary General of NATO, just in the last week, saying Trump is right, Trump is right when he says defense spending needs to increase, we do need to spend more money. So already we are seeing the likes of the NATO Secretary General, the new NATO Secretary General, saying, Trump, we, we agree with Trump, we should be spending more money. And I think that is the kind of language that we're now going to hear from the Europeans.
- [30:00]
B
If you look at the map, certain countries are happy that Trump came in. I would put Western Europe as the, as the area that is most depressed. Just anecdotally, in talking to some European officials, they're very nervous. They're very nervous. They don't trust him. They don't like him. They find him uneducated, distasteful, the ugly, brash American, which is part of it. There's a bit of snobbery there as well. But Latin America, they like him. There are a lot of Latin American governments that like him. Central America likes him. Many African countries like him. European. I would put them at the top of the list of people who don't like him. And I think Western Europe is very concerned that their partner in that is now leaving. And they're concerned.
- [30:51]
A
Yes, exactly this. And I think we'll have to see, you know, the similarities between the first Trump presidency and this one, and whether we see the same sort of Bolshy attitude that we saw from Trump or whether he, I don't know. A lot of people say, oh, maybe he'll be different this time, maybe he'll be presidential. I'm not sure about that. But I think that he is certainly at this point in time, in these early days, surrounding himself with people who are very loyal to him and his policy and agenda.
- [31:24]
B
Yalda, as always, fascinating. And we will see each other next week?
- [31:29]
A
Absolutely. I look forward to Richard C. Soon.