Podcast Summary: "Peacemaker? Warmaker? Kingmaker? Trump 2.0 in the World"

Release Date: November 13, 2024
Podcast: The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Host: Sky News
Episode Title: Peacemaker? Warmaker? Kingmaker? Trump 2.0 in the World

Introduction

In this compelling episode of "The World," Sky News’ Yalda Hakim and NBC’s Richard Engel delve into the seismic shifts in global politics following Donald Trump’s decisive victory in the recent U.S. elections. The hosts explore the far-reaching implications of Trump’s potential return to power, particularly focusing on his foreign policy maneuvers and the international response to his leadership style.

Trump’s Decisive Win and Foreign Policy Implications

The episode begins with Yalda and Richard discussing the significance of Donald Trump’s victory and its expected impact on international relations. They emphasize that Trump's win is not just a domestic event but a catalyst for substantial changes in global geopolitics.

Yalda Hakim (00:19):
"In this episode of the podcast, we'll be looking at Donald Trump's decisive win and what it means for foreign policy in specific."

Alleged Assassination Plot by Iran

A significant portion of the discussion centers around the FBI’s revelation of an alleged Iranian plot to assassinate Donald Trump. Yalda details the background of the plot, highlighting Iran's motive to avenge the killing of General Qassem Soleimani and its targeting of Trump and his national security advisors.

Yalda Hakim (02:55):
"Farhad Shaqeri, this man in his 50s, of Afghan descent, who is now believed to be at large in Iran, had been tasked by the Iranians with a plan to assassinate former president, now President-elect Donald Trump."

Richard expresses skepticism about the plausibility of the assassination plot, questioning the capabilities and motives of the accused.

Richard Engel (05:19):
"It seems so amateur hour that this 51-year-old guy who's been in jail in the US is gonna recruit a couple of ex-con buddies and come up with an assassination plot in a week. It doesn't make a lot of sense."

The hosts debate whether this revelation will harden Trump's stance against Iran, potentially leading to a more hawkish foreign policy.

Impact on Middle East Conflicts: Gaza, Lebanon, and Qatar

The discussion shifts to the Middle East, focusing on Qatar’s recent decision to request Hamas to shut down its political office, effectively ending its role in ceasefire negotiations. This move has significant repercussions for hostage negotiations and the broader conflict dynamics in the region.

Richard Engel (14:39):
"Now the Qataris are hanging this up. We're not. We've had enough of this. It's a liability for us and bad news for the hostages."

Yalda highlights the precarious situation with over 60 Israeli hostages still held in Gaza, emphasizing the absence of effective negotiation channels following Qatar’s withdrawal.

Yalda Hakim (16:00):
"There's no contact person now in terms of hostage negotiation and ceasefire. Mike Pompeo could have been a bridge, but now that option is off the table."

The hosts also touch upon Benjamin Netanyahu’s aggressive stance towards Iran, including potential military actions against Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities, aligning with Trump’s purported policy directions.

Implications for Ukraine

Ukraine's situation under Trump's potential presidency is another focal point. Yalda discusses the anxieties among Ukrainians regarding U.S. support and the fear of cut-offs under Trump’s leadership. She outlines Trump's approach to foreign policy as "peace through escalation" and anticipates an influx of weapons to Ukraine to bolster their defense capabilities.

Yalda Hakim (19:34):
"Donald Trump has spoken to Vladimir Putin, reminding him of U.S. military presence in Europe and urging him to consider winding down actions in Ukraine."

Richard paints a grim picture of the ongoing conflict, noting the humanitarian toll and the perception that U.S. policy has been insufficient and "cruel."

Richard Engel (21:01):
"US Policy against Ukraine is cruel. Young men are getting wiped out, and the societal fabric is tearing apart."

The hosts predict that Trump's administration may opt to end major combat operations in Ukraine, framing it as a strategic win for Trump, while the underlying conflict and humanitarian issues persist.

Predictions by the Hosts

In their signature prediction segment, Yalda and Richard offer their foresights on future developments:

• Richard Engel (27:15):
  "North Korean troops trained with Russians are likely to see action soon in Kursk."

• Yalda Hakim (28:40):
  "Trump will begin drip-feeding policies through media leaks, signaling a new era of his leadership before inauguration."

They foresee a turbulent first week under Trump’s new term, marked by significant policy shifts and strategic communications aimed at altering global power dynamics.

European Relations Post-Election

The hosts explore the anticipated strain in U.S.-European relations following Trump's election, citing apprehensions among Western European nations regarding Trump's transactional approach and brash demeanor.

Richard Engel (30:00):
"Western Europe is very concerned and doesn't trust Trump. They find him uneducated and distasteful."

Yalda adds that while some European voices, like NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, agree with Trump's calls for increased defense spending, the overall sentiment in Europe remains wary and cautious.

Yalda Hakim (30:00):
"Trump views everything as a transaction, speaking to Europeans like adversaries. Relations may not plummet, but they'll certainly become more cautious."

The discussion highlights a potential realignment of alliances, with Latin America and African nations more receptive to Trump's leadership compared to their European counterparts.

Conclusion

Yalda and Richard conclude the episode by reinforcing the unpredictability of Trump's foreign policy and the likely shifts in global alliances and conflicts. They underscore the importance of closely monitoring Trump's actions and the international community's responses in the coming weeks.

Richard Engel (31:24):
"Trump is unpredictable and likes to divide and conquer. We're entering a new era, and we'll be watching closely."

Yalda Hakim (31:29):
"Absolutely. I look forward to Richard. See you soon."

Key Takeaways

• Assassination Plot: The alleged Iranian assassination plot against Trump may significantly influence his foreign policy, potentially leading to a more aggressive stance against Iran.

• Middle East Dynamics: Qatar’s withdrawal from negotiating with Hamas complicates hostage situations and may force alternative mediation efforts.

• Ukraine Conflict: Trump's approach to Ukraine is expected to focus on escalating support through weapon saturation, possibly ending major combat operations while underlying conflicts persist.

• European Relations: Trump's transactional and adversarial communication style is likely to strain U.S.-European relations, although support may remain strong in other regions.

• Unpredictable Leadership: Trump's unpredictable and divisive leadership style promises substantial changes in global geopolitics, necessitating vigilant observation in the near future.

Notable Quotes:

• Yalda Hakim (02:55):
  "Farhad Shaqeri had been tasked by the Iranians with a plan to assassinate former president, now President-elect Donald Trump."

• Richard Engel (05:19):
  "It seems so amateur hour that this 51-year-old guy who's been in jail in the US is gonna recruit a couple of ex-con buddies and come up with an assassination plot in a week."

• Yalda Hakim (19:34):
  "Donald Trump has spoken to Vladimir Putin, reminding him of U.S. military presence in Europe and urging him to consider winding down actions in Ukraine."

• Richard Engel (21:01):
  "US Policy against Ukraine is cruel. Young men are getting wiped out, and the societal fabric is tearing apart."

• Yalda Hakim (30:00):
  "Trump views everything as a transaction, speaking to Europeans like adversaries. Relations may not plummet, but they'll certainly become more cautious."

This episode provides an in-depth analysis of the potential global ramifications of Donald Trump's resurgence in American politics, offering listeners a nuanced understanding of the intricate web of international relations that may unfold in the near future.