← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Robots on the frontline: Is Ukraine now winning the war?
00:39:39
Loading summary
Transcript85 lines
- [00:00]
Grainger Announcer
If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H vac and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Granger for the ones who get it done.
- [00:33]
Yalda Hakim
Sky News the full story first. Hello, it's me, Yalda Hakim, and I'm currently in London.
- [00:48]
Richard Engel
And me, Richard Engel in Lisbon. Welcome to the world podcast.
- [00:54]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
There was the famous time where a Russian position surrendered to an all machine attack. The Ukrainians basically surrounded them and the Russians had no way out and they came out surrendering to the robot vehicles.
- [01:07]
Richard Engel
Do you think the Ukrainians can win it?
- [01:10]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Of course they can win it. The Russian army is not an unbeatable army. It's actually not very good in many respects.
- [01:18]
Dominic Waghorn
We're the first journalists from outside of Iran to film here since the attack. As we enter the town of Minab, there are reminders everywhere of its terrible tragedy. We've come to the primary school that was hit on the first day of the conflict by precision guided missiles.
- [01:46]
Yalda Hakim
So, Richard, another canceled attack on Iran by Donald Trump, but this time he says it's because of a request by Gulf states not to do it. So we're going to talk about that. And of course, for, for anyone who's missed the extraordinary reporting coming out of Iran by my colleague Dominic Waghorn. He has been a guest on this podcast a number of times. He is currently in Iran in Minab. And of course, Minab became infamous because of that alleged US strike on the school which ended up killing over 150 children and their teachers. Horrifying incident that happened very early on in the war. He has been there to investigate and find out what actually happened.
- [02:37]
Richard Engel
Important stories. Dom is a great reporter, great guy, great access. Congratulations to him and all of you guys. I want to hear about that, what he's seeing. And as all eyes are on the Middle east. What about Ukraine? A massive drone attack in Moscow over the weekend shows that they are still very much in this war, in the fight, and may even be gaining the upper hand. That's what Professor Phillips o' Brien says. You'll be hearing from him later in this episode. And it was a fascinating conversation.
- [03:06]
Yalda Hakim
And of course, President Putin traveling to Beijing this week to meet with Xi Jinping just a few days after Donald Trump was there, so we'll speak a little bit about that. And of course, don't forget to follow us wherever you get your podcast. You can send us your thoughts as well to the world theworldsky.uk and watch us on YouTube.
- [03:37]
Richard Engel
Before we unpack all that's happening in Iran. Are we heading for escalation? Are we heading for a peace deal? Yesterday, just in one day, we saw both moves. We saw President Trump make new threats and escalate and then say that he's not going to launch this attack that he had just threatened moments earlier. So trying to follow this is like trying to follow a fast moving car on the racetrack. But Dominic has an amazing position to do that. He's in Iran right now and he traveled to the south where that school was hit. And was it more than 150 people killed? And that was just right on the first, on the first day of the war.
- [04:19]
Yalda Hakim
So just to recap what actually happened, this incident, horrifying incident took place on the first day of the war. On February 28, news suddenly emerged that a school had been hit in Minap which end up leaving over 150 children and their teachers dead. It horrified the world and immediately the Trump administration pointed the finger of blame on the Iranian authorities saying that they had conducted this strike which ended up killing so many people. It later emerged that it was a Tomahawk missile that was used. And of course no one is in possession of Tomahawks but the United States. So the US Military is currently investigating this incident. And three and a half months on, there still isn't any sort of findings that have come out of this investigation and no real clarity or frankly accountability for what happened. You know, you talk about the fact that Donald Trump, we've seen the different sides of Donald Trump in one day, first of all, launching these sort of threats against Iran, which we've seen him do over the past few months and then backtracking. The one thing he's been silent about though is this attack on this particular school because it left the world outraged, devastated. Certainly in Iran, the families are trying to seek justice. And Dom was able to piece together what happened on that day, but also speak to the grieving families, mothers who have been going back to the graves of their children three and a half months on every single day, Richard, they go back where they sing their children lullabies every night. I mean, it's just, it's gut wrenching. But let's just have a listen to what Dom sent us from Minab.
- [06:17]
Dominic Waghorn
Hi Yalda. Hi, Richard from Minab, where we've been for almost a week now. And it's been an extraordinary, an extraordinary moving week, a harrowing week talking to the people here. I think people listening will remember how on day one, America's war went very, very wrong in this town when cruise missiles landed in the town's primary school. And we are among the first international journalists to get here. And it's been a difficult journey, difficult to get permission, difficult to get here. Four days traveling from London, 20 hour train journey from Iran. But it's been worth it. And I think most of all because the people we've, we've met here and interviewed are desperate to have their stories told. They don't feel they've been able to say what's happened here enough to the outside world. And also I think they've been saying to us as outsiders, can you explain what happened here? Can you say whether the people who did this are going to be held to account? I've covered wars, revolutions, natural disasters like you both have, and they are often difficult to cover. But day one of our trip here, I think, I don't think I've ever been as moved in a day's filming. We went to the school and we met two brothers who had arrived shortly after the missiles came in. And they described in graphic and harrowing testimony what they saw, which is what you would expect, I suppose, to see when weapons, very powerful missiles designed to sink battleships or blow up military bunkers fly into a building full of children. The most moving interview was with a young mother called Khadijah. Now, we found her in the town cemetery and that is where most of the children are buried. And you've probably seen it, seen it in our reports where parents go most evenings. And a lot of these parents have said to us that they just can't accept their children have gone. And to kind of make up for that and deal with that, they go to the graves of their children, many of them at dusk, and then spend most of the evening there, well into the early hours beside their children's graveside. Khadija was beside the grave of her son Mohammed Taha. And there were balloons on his grave and a birthday cake and they were lighting sparklers because it would have been his 10th birthday that night. And she fought back the tears as she said to us, all I want is to have one last moment with him, to be able to hold him and hug him and speak to him. And very movingly said that she's not been able to her and her husband have not been able to tell Ilya, their five year old son, who's autistic, what has happened to his brother, his elder brother, who he adores. We interviewed her a couple of days later and for more than two hours, the tears just streamed down her face as she talked about what her and her family have been through. And the point to make here is the nature in which these children died was horrendous and many of them have not been able to get most of their children back. And I think there's a contrast to draw here between the courage of the people here and the conduct of the American government. Since this terrible tragedy. There seems little doubt that this was America's fault. These were American Tomahawk missiles. America had been bombarding a number of targets in the area. A preliminary report that's been leaked makes it pretty clear America was probably responsible. And in previous incidents like this that you may well have reported on in Afghanistan and in Iraq, America fairly quickly claimed responsibility within a few days at the most, a week or two. And this time it's taken almost three months for them to only say that they are investigating this atrocity. And I think, you know, it's fair to say that if you are responsible, if all the evidence points to you being responsible for this kind of event, you really should find the guts to admit it. And in contrast with what we've seen from the parents here so far, the way the Trump administration has responded to this terrible incident and tragedy in Minab that has killed more than 120 children does seem pretty spineless.
- [10:49]
Yalda Hakim
And of course, Richard, we've been demanding answers from the Trump administration. We've reached out to the, to the Pentagon as well. And Reuters is now reporting that the US Military says that they are investigating. But the investigation is complex. And I'm just going to read you the exact quote given to Reuters that the school located, or the school was located on an active Iran cruise missile base. That's according to a US Admiral. So, you know, the Americans are maintaining that this particular school was on an active Iranian military base, an IRGC base. Having spoken to Dom and the crew on the ground, they say that the base, or even if there was a military facility, they drove for miles towards this sort of gated area, which is where the school was. And the school was nowhere near a base. And they think that it was old intelligence that they had based this on in terms of launching the strike. So, you know, these mothers, the teachers, the students, all of their lives could have potentially been sacrificed based on an old bit of intel, I spoke to someone from the Pentagon who now no longer works at the Pentagon. And he said, look, we only launch these investigations when we're more or less sure and certain that it was us. And, you know, I referenced previous U.S. missile attacks, whether it was in Kabul. Do you remember that attack, the drone strike attack, which killed a young family?
- [12:26]
Richard Engel
Of course, of course they were moving water barrels and the Americans thought they were moving bombs.
- [12:30]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah.
- [12:31]
Yalda Hakim
And they were evacuating. And they launched this kind of like one of the final strikes before they left. And they said it was the Taliban, but in fact it was this young family and a bunch of kids who were killed. And, you know, he talked about the fact that when mistakes are made, you know, there is a accountability on some level, compensation is paid, there is a sense of reflection. That is basically how America likes to look at these moments. And yet in this instance, he said that it feels like the country, the United States has no soul when they can look at these images of these children. And the Pentagon says, well, there's an investigation, but the investigation goes nowhere. And frankly, all we've heard is silence.
- [13:20]
Richard Engel
And it's important that people focus on these things, not only for the moral value of it, but so that it enters into the historic record. I mean, we now get so much information, so much disinformation, we consume so many half truths and manipulated truths that it's important for people to write down an accurate record and polish it and show it to people and put it in their pockets and say, this is really what happened.
- [13:46]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah.
- [13:46]
Yalda Hakim
Nation states have responsibilities during warfare, you know, according to international law, that when these things happen, they are to be investigated and they need to look, you know, towards finding out why it happened and then being able to learn lessons from it.
- [14:02]
Richard Engel
Back to the, the larger question we were discussing at the top. Where is this going? So you'll either see a big escalation with a new naval offensive and maybe an air campaign, likely an air campaign as well, to protect that offensive, or the Gulf states managed to rein him in and then we're heading toward deal. Where do you see things going?
- [14:25]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I do think there is truth in the pressure coming from the Gulf states because don't forget, as we've seen, they've been bearing the bulk of the kind of retaliation by the Iranians. And they knew that their energy infrastructure, for example, would get targeted and hit that any strikes that the United States and Israel launches on Iran. The Iranians, you know, have found this, this weak spot for themselves. But I think separate to that is the issue of have either side, you know, made any concessions which they can sort of accept. And it doesn't feel at this point in time, you know, the red lines seem to be clear from both sides, but they're both. It's like a tug of war and both sides want the other side to sort of capitulate. And Frank, not seeing that I talked to you the other week about how the Iranians like to negotiate, that they like to bring a maximalist approach to the table and then spend months trying to break that down and negotiate. And they like to negotiate. They like to roll up their sleeves and argue their point. But they're dealing with an administration, unlike the Obama administration, that had patience and time and two years of negotiations with a bunch of experts. The Trump administration wants a 14 point plan, a 20 point plan, like they did for Gaz. So they want a quick fix here, and they want the Iranians to accept that they won't be charging taxes on the Strait of Hormuz and open it up, and they want them to give up their nuclear program. But frankly, the way that things are heading, why on earth would the Iranians give up the Strait of Hormuz when they've realized it's such a big point of leverage for them?
- [16:07]
Richard Engel
It doesn't seem to be going in the right direction. Every time the Americans have tried to go in recently by force into Hormuz, the Iranians have responded very quickly, very aggressively, attacking the boats, attacking particularly the uae, which is bothering Iran more and more. And that alliance between the U.S. the UAE and Israel is becoming clearer. If you look at the trajectory right now, it looks like we could be heading toward escalation. By the way, Yalda, we had it right last time. She did not offer to help bail out President Trump. She was, you know, happy to talk about business and buying some airplanes. But he did not want to offer a solution or an off ramp to President Trump. It seems that with a failed summit or a summit that failed to end the war or even really to advance diplomacy, new threats, a persistent military risk from these small boats that the Iranians have, which they're using effectively to control the Strait of Hormuz, it seems like we could see missiles flying again.
- [17:15]
Yalda Hakim
Richard, you spoke about Xi Jinping and his meeting with Donald Trump, and Xi Jinping not offering to help Donald Trump, which is what we talked about. But Xi Jinping has been very busy with guests. He met with Donald Trump just a few days ago. He's going to be greeting Vladimir Putin So after the break, we're going to give you a bit of an update on another war because, of course, everyone is focused on the situation in the Middle east, but we're going to turn our attention to Ukraine.
- [17:55]
Grainger Announcer
If you work in university maintenance, Grainger considers you an MVP because your playbook ensures your arena is always ready for tip off. And Grainger is your trusted partner, offering the products you need all in one place, from H VAC and plumbing supplies to lighting and more. And all delivered with plenty of time left on the clock. So your team always gets the win. Call 1-800-GRAINGER visit grainger.com or just stop by Grainger for the ones who get it done.
- [18:34]
Yalda Hakim
Welcome back. So we've been focusing on the situation in Iran, but Richard, let's turn our attention to Ukraine. And you've been speaking to someone about the situation in Ukraine and Russia's approach to this war. Just talk us through that.
- [18:50]
Richard Engel
Yeah, absolutely. So I wanted to find out more about Ukraine and how it's going. And there are all these reports that we're seeing that the Ukrainians are making some progress. They launched this big drone attack against Moscow, getting through the country's air defenses. So I spoke with a short while ago, Phillips o'. Brien. He's a professor at Saint Andrews College up in Scotland. And, and he follows the war very closely. He's a professor of political history and current events. And I asked him, can the Ukrainians win this war? How's it going? What's changing? And he is actually sounding very upbeat about Ukraine's prospects, even as President Trump is now working, as he describes it, hand in hand on the same side with Vladimir Putin. And joining us now is professor of Strategic Studies and International relations at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, Professor Phillips o'. Brien. It's very nice to talk to you.
- [19:55]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Thanks for having me here, Richard.
- [19:56]
Richard Engel
It's an absolute pleasure. So today I want you to help us understand Ukraine. It's a country I've been to many times, but you have been following it, you've been writing about it. So I just want to ask you how, how are things going in the war right now? Because Ukraine hasn't been in the headlines like Iran has saw this drone attack that the Ukrainians carried out, quite significant attack against Moscow. And there are reports that the Ukrainians are doing better on the battlefield, that they're holding the Russians back. So what's going on?
- [20:29]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, they are. I mean, if you compare to the last time people might have been paying attention, which was in 2025. And a lot of the narrative in 2025 was that the Russians were advancing relentlessly, blowing up Ukrainian cities, blowing up Ukrainian power plants. And as Donald Trump said, the Ukrainians were going to lose the war. The Ukrainians have no cards. That was sort of the narrative of 2025. What we see in 2026 is significantly different. And what has happened is that in many of the spheres of the war, the Ukrainians have taken the initiative away from the Russians. Now, it's not to say they're not blasting the Russians back or they're not going to instantly retake all of their territory, but if you look at the different spheres of the war, in all of those spheres, the Ukrainians are doing better than they were in 2025.
- [21:20]
Richard Engel
What do you mean by spheres of the war?
- [21:22]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, basically, long range strike, mid range strike, frontline and war at sea might be a way you would divide up the military areas of the war. By the way, the Ukrainians have had the initiative in the war at sea for most of the war. So that hasn't changed. I mean, that's one where the Ukrainians have been doing quite well, but on
- [21:37]
Richard Engel
these other three, they've now taken the initiative. And what caused that to change?
- [21:43]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, there are a number of reasons, but if I was going to narrow it down to the most important is that in the area of drones, UAVs, unpiloted aerial vehicles, and unpiloted ground vehicles, when it comes to the land war, the Ukrainians have gained the initiative in all of those areas. They're making better systems and they're using those systems at this point better than the Russians, or certainly in most cases more effectively than the Russians. So when it comes to the ground war where the two armies meet, what happens is the Russians have found it almost impossible to move forward now because they will be quickly identified by a Ukrainian drone. A Russian soldier has a very short lifespan. If that soldier becomes exposed and out on the battlefield and the Ukrainians will find that soldier and they'll kill it. So Russian casualties are extremely high and they've stopped moving forward.
- [22:35]
Richard Engel
So I like the way you broke this down into four different categories at sea. The long range attacks, which Ukraine has been really struggling to, to stop because of inadequate missile defense and things like that. The short range attacks, so just over the border, places that are still in the frontline area but are not on the front line, but they're close enough. And then finally the front line itself, the line of contact. Which one would you say that that drones have had the most impact because you think of drones taking over on the front line. But how are drones helping with these other threats?
- [23:16]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Certainly all of the spheres that the drone is the primary weapon right now. So you can't say it's more important for long range strike than on the battlefield. It's absolutely for Ukraine, it's vital for all three. So when it comes time to the front line, most of the Ukrainian killing and wounding of Russian soldiers and destruction of Russian vehicles is being done by drones. Now 80% of Russian casualties are being done by drones. And these are often the small ones. So the ones at the battlefield are the small called often first person view FPV drones which are flown by someone sitting deep in a hole trying to protect themselves and flying this vehicle over the battlefield. So that's how the Russians have stopped moving forward. They can't because of Ukrainian small drones. But what happened this weekend in Moscow, these are the long range drones drones. So the Ukrainians have now developed a class of much longer range drone. I mean they're hitting targets 1500 kilometers plus from Ukraine now more than 1000 miles from Ukraine. And these are their longer range strike drones. They'd actually struggled with those for a while. They'd struggled making them accurate enough, making them survivable where they could actually not be brought down by electronic warfare or too easily brought down by anti air. They've clearly made some advances in their long range drones. They were able to hit Moscow, which is the most heavily defended city in the world right now when it comes to air defense. But the Ukrainians got the most heavily
- [24:45]
Richard Engel
defended, more than Tel Aviv, more than
- [24:48]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
anywhere in the world in terms of number of systems. Now that might not be as well defended. I mean, I imagine Israel probably uses its anti air systems better. But if you look at a map of Moscow now, you'll see the city ringed by multiple rings of anti air systems. Extraordinary number of anti air systems.
- [25:06]
Richard Engel
So tell us a little bit what happened in Moscow 1, how did they get through? And then please help me understand and all of us, what changed? You know, the Russians are smart and they're working on this technology and they're taking huge casualties. So they're motivated to get better. Why is it that the Ukrainians suddenly got this technological breakthrough? Were they given a leg up? Was it a new technology, was it a particular engineering breakthrough? What, what changed? But first tell us what happened in Moscow.
- [25:33]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, the Ukrainians aren't going to tell me how they got them through, so I'd love to be able to tell You Richard, what the big difference was in the attack this weekend compared to some past ones it might be they just had more systems and overloaded Russian anti air. So the dealing with large numbers of systems is more difficult. The Ukrainians have been working on different elements to make their long range drones more effective for a while and they were able to get some into the center of Moscow through this very heavy anti air shield that covers the Russian capital and they were able to hit some what looked to be significant targets. So that was quite a shock, I think, particularly for the Russian people, because what Putin has been telling the Russians for four and a half years now, four years and three months, is the war is going well, we're going to win the war. And he's kept Moscow as protected as possible and life in Moscow much as it had been before the war to try and keep Moscow protected. And what the Ukrainians were saying this weekend is that's not going to continue anymore. Moscow is now a frontline city and we can attack it if we want.
- [26:40]
Richard Engel
Certainly a wake up call for Russians for people living in Moscow. Tell me about these fully automated frontline positions now. It sounds kind of dystopian, futuristic, where you have a front line that is monitored, protected, defended and can attack all autonomously without human beings directly in the mix. Is this a myth? Are they really happening? And, and how does this, is this the future of warfare? Because it does sound very science fiction and dystopian where you just sort of deploy the robots on the border and let them do their thing and you can stay back in your cities. Is that happening in Ukraine now?
- [27:25]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
It's almost there. It's not there fully because there will, at least for the foreseeable future, always be a few people around. But what they're doing, the Ukrainians are keeping the number of tasks that a human soldier has to do to the absolute minimum and using machines wherever possible so that you will go to long stretches of the front line and there will be very few Ukrainian soldiers. And those that will be there won't be visible at all. They'll be hidden, they'll be very, you know, they'll be concealed, they'll be protected because the Ukrainians don't want to expose them. And what they do is they use machines to do everything they can so that over the head, over your head you have the flying drones and the flying drones are doing intelligence and then they're providing attack. If they see a Russian soldier, they'll attack. So the flying drones provide the constant intelligence, the surveillance where are the Russians. And then we've killed Russians in this area. And now you're adding ground vehicles to that. And ground vehicles are really three kinds of very distinct ground vehicles, Two of which show how human beings are still there, one of which is the logistic vehicle. So they don't use human beings to bring supplies forward. Now that's a really dangerous job. But they do have a few soldiers in the front line. So to get supplies to the soldiers in the front line, they're using automated vehicles. These are not piloted vehicles or they're remotely piloted. Island of view.
- [28:46]
Richard Engel
I've seen some of these. These are like these robotic platforms, like the robotic scooters that you can load boxes on or you could have put a casualty on if necessary. But they, they're all terrain vehicles, a little bit like some sort of lunar rover that can bring supplies to.
- [29:03]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Absolutely. I mean, they're like small flatbed trucks in a way, without, without a human driver. The other thing they do which, which is. And, and I've talked to someone who's seen them. They, they evacuate the people that do get wounded on these evacuation UGVs unpiloted, or there's no human driver vehicle which will take the wounded out. I remember I was talking to Ukraine. He said he came across one in the middle of the woods one night, that they were evacuating. This guy had been wounded kilometers forward. And then all of a sudden this vehicle came stealthily, quietly by with no driver, but there was clearly a wounded Ukrainian in it. So they evacuate soldiers in that. And then they are now having fighting vehicles too. They're harder to see, they're harder to destroy. They are much smaller than a tank which has a crew of four and much cheaper.
- [29:51]
Richard Engel
They don't have any, they're battery powered. They don't make any noise. There's no smoke, there's no diesel fumes, there's nothing.
- [29:57]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah, it's so much, so much more efficient way of fighting. So you have vehicles doing those three roles. Now there was the famous time where a Russian position surrendered to an all machine attack. Attack.
- [30:09]
Richard Engel
Tell me more about that.
- [30:10]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, that was a bunch of Russian
- [30:11]
Richard Engel
soldiers putting up their hands to robots.
- [30:13]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah, they absolutely did. Yeah. The Ukrainians basically surrounded them in some kind of structure and the Russians had no way out and they came out surrendering to the robot vehicles. Now we don't know if there were actually human soldiers not that far away. So we have to be very careful. These were the pictures the Ukrainians released. But the key thing is it's Minimum number of soldiers, minimum number. There's always, I think, a few. And let the machines do everything the machine can do.
- [30:38]
Richard Engel
And who's making all of these drones?
- [30:41]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Most cases for both the Ukrainians and the Russians, the components come from China because there's certain things that aren't really made efficiently in large numbers everywhere else, say the cameras. The Chinese just make good cheap cameras that can go on all these drones and you have to have a camera. Ukraine can't source the cameras anywhere else. The motors that power the little drone, they're small motors, but they have to work, work. The Chinese make by far the most supply of the world's motors. So what happens is the components get delivered to both Russia and Ukraine. But overall, you might say what we are seeing is Chinese drones fighting Chinese drones on both sides just with different interpretations.
- [31:19]
Richard Engel
And I've never seen technology go backwards. Once you introduce a new technology in warfare, it stays.
- [31:25]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah. And the drone will stay there until someone finds an anti drone weapon. And right now there isn't a cheap and effective anti drone weapon. And until that is the case, the drone is going to be this very important thing on the battlefield.
- [31:37]
Richard Engel
How would you characterize President Trump's involvement in this? Because President Trump made it quite clear he wasn't that interested in helping the Ukrainians out. Did that somehow force the Ukrainians to innovate by being starved of resources, or is that a step too far?
- [31:54]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
That's a step. I mean, I've heard this argument by people who were trying to defend what Trump did. The Ukrainians started this transition to the drone in 2023. So this is something that began before Trump. I think 2024 is the key year in that transition where they really said, okay, we're not going to get long range help from the West. The United States isn't. And this was under Biden. We're not going to get long range help. So we're going to have to do things for ourselves and we really have to save our soldiers numbers. I think the thing that Trump in a sense changing sides and Trump in many ways helps Putin now far more than he helps the Ukrainians. What they did take from that is, is they're going to fight the war they want to fight from 2022 to 2024, they often deferred to the United States. So the Biden administration didn't like them doing long range strike.
- [32:43]
Richard Engel
No, they didn't like. They were very vocal about it. They would reprimand the Ukrainians, do not cross the Russian border and do not use American weapons to do it under any circumstances. And it was a big point of contention between the two sides.
- [32:56]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Absolutely. And so what happened is when Trump did stop giving Ukraine aid, then Ukraine stopped having to listen to the United States, because why were they going to do what Trump wanted when Trump wasn't helping them?
- [33:08]
Richard Engel
Now, are the Ukrainians just sort of doing them, not asking for permission, and then if the Americans are upset about it, then they just move on with it?
- [33:16]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
I don't think they care what the. I mean, the one intervention by the United States in the last few weeks was to ask the Ukrainians not to attack Putin's parade. So the balance has changed in the discussion. Russians that. Before that, it was the United States saying that the Ukrainians don't attack Russian targets. And then actually it was Trump went and negotiated on Putin's behalf with Zelensky and said, don't attack the parade and the Russians will do a big prisoner exchange with you. So I think that's a really important moment. And they just are now. They do not care about offending the United States.
- [33:51]
Richard Engel
You said President Trump switched sides. Yeah, that. Or when you mean President Trump switched sides, or do you mean the United States switched sides from Biden? And then Trump took a new position.
- [34:03]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
The position of the United States now, which is been trying to force on Ukraine for most of 2025 and into 2026, is that Ukraine needs to agree to a peace that Putin wants. The United States has put pressure on Ukraine to give up territory the Russians have not conquered. The United States has put pressure on Ukraine to legally cede its land to Russia. The United States has put pressure on Ukraine to agree to limitations on its military equipment. The United States has put pressure on Ukraine not to allow. Not to ever go into NATO, to be kept out of NATO. So the position of the United States, which has been made very clear to the Ukrainians and I think the Ukrainian. It's another one of the reasons the Ukrainians have stopped listening to the United States. The position of the US Government is that Ukraine needs to make major concessions to put Putin. That's what it is.
- [34:54]
Richard Engel
Do you think Trump is now negotiating for Putin? He's pushing Putin's agenda?
- [34:58]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I think basically the United States has worked out a common position. Witkoff and Kushner talking with the Russian negotiations have worked out a common position. And the United States has been trying to get the Ukrainians to accept it, but the Ukrainians are not accepting it. And that's why these discussions aren't really going Anywhere because there's no common ground there there.
- [35:18]
Richard Engel
Do you think the Ukrainians can win it? And what would that look like?
- [35:22]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Of course they can win it. I mean the Russian army is not an unbeatable army. It's actually not very good in many respects. It's not an adaptable organization. It's not one that shows a great deal of initiative. It has fought an incredibly bloody war, sacrificing unsustainably large numbers of people to make its small advances and it's starting to hit the wall now. It's losing. 35,000 Ukrainian casualty records by the way are really good because this is a horrible war and they get a picture of almost everyone they kill because these soldiers are now getting killed by first person view drones. So they really get a record of almost every one they hit now. It's really quite extraordinary in a grisly way. And the Ukrainians have said, and I think this has been validated by a number of western intelligence agencies, that in March and April they killed and wounded, seriously wounded, 35,000 Russian soldiers a month.
- [36:12]
Richard Engel
So does this all mean that Zelenskyy and Trump are basically done? You know, Zelensky was really trying to win him over. He took that embarrassing moment where he was browbeaten in the Oval Office on the chin and Ukraine is doing what it is, fighting this war kind of with or without the Americans. So is that relationship over the Zelensky Trump attempts at a friendship over?
- [36:35]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
It's not, they don't have an attempted friend. I mean Trump hates Zelensky, he's always hated Zelensky. So yeah, there was never any friendship there. That what happened in the Oval Office was actually, actually Trump's true opinion. But I don't think the relationship's over. It's just now the United States has much less leverage over Ukraine and Ukraine's going to do what it's want. So they're going to deal with each other from a very detached, self interested point of view. There's no emotion in the relationship. The United States is not pro Ukrainian from the Ukrainian point of view. So they're not going to kowtow to the usa.
- [37:06]
Richard Engel
And what would winning look like?
- [37:08]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Well, you could go a number of ways. One way would be that basically the Russian army through mid range strike, which we have, we haven't talked about this sort of strike from 50km to 300km begins to run out of logistics support and the Ukrainians shut off the supply to the Russian military and that it would take time to operate. Basically the Russians will Struggle, struggle, struggle to get supplies through. And then their military would become a less perfect, more imperfect force than it is now. And the Ukrainians could take advantage of that to take back some of their territory. They could do it by shutting down the Russian economy by better long range strike combined with this. So if you combine the Russian army begins to falter with long range strike, which really damages the Russian oil system. And by the way, Russia needs oil to live. It's one of the only ways they can get money. And if you can actually start devastating the Russian oil exporting system, that would put huge pressure. And so that's another thing that could play into the equation. And finally, it's probably also the people around Putin who are looking at this and going, this war is not going well. And the one threat that Putin has to his rule is the idea that if people around him think he's lost the war or he can't win it, and then that actually has a real impact, I think, on what happens internally in Russia. So there are a number of different scenarios here. I don't want to guess one, but all wars are winnable and all wars are losable. The idea that Russia can't be beaten is just wrong. It's whether we help Ukraine to do it. And I think Ukraine has a pretty good plan to do it. They still want some help with it it. But the Russian military is beatable and the Russian state is not that strong.
- [38:48]
Richard Engel
Professor Phillips, thank you very much. This was a great conversation. I hope everyone enjoyed it as much as I did. Thank you for your time. And you're still up in Scotland, so I hope the weather starts to improve. One of the producers on this show was just up in your neighborhood and said it was freezing.
- [39:04]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Yep, it's been the coldest spring I remember. So there you go.
- [39:07]
Richard Engel
Well, thank you very much again.
- [39:08]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Take it easy now.
- [39:18]
Yalda Hakim
Well, Richard, that was really interesting. And of course, as you say and as we've been discussing, President Putin is going to be in Beijing this week. So all eyes will be on, you know, what is said to the Chinese leader and, and, and basically the focus back for, for a little bit on, on Ukraine and we'll, we'll get to
- [39:38]
Richard Engel
see the optics there because President Trump is so into the decorum and the protocols and he was very excited that he got to see that rare garden or he seemed very excited in the video that President Xi took him to this special garden that only select guests go to and he said Putin had been there before. So we will see if the same pomp and circumstance are laid out and who did better.
- [40:01]
Yalda Hakim
Richard, really good to see you and look forward to speaking to you soon. And thank you so much much to our listeners for listening.
- [40:09]
Richard Engel
Great to see you and thank you to everyone listening, watching, following us on YouTube. It's been great and the best part is always getting to see you once a week.
- [40:33]
Professor Phillips O'Brien
Foreign.
- [40:40]
Dominic Waghorn
I'm Sam Coates from Sky News.
- [40:42]
Yalda Hakim
And I'm Anne McElroy from Politico, downing
- [40:44]
Dominic Waghorn
Street Drama, Leadership, Battles and Policy U Turns we're on it before it breaks.
- [40:50]
Yalda Hakim
We take you straight into the rooms where the real political conversations are happening.
- [40:54]
Dominic Waghorn
Smart insight, clear analysis in your feeds by 7:45am so you start your morning morning fully brief for the day ahead in British politics.
- [41:02]
Yalda Hakim
Hit Follow and listen to politics at Simon Anne's wherever you get your podcasts.