← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
'The greatest show on earth' - less than a week until US election
00:34:13
It's six days until the US election and in this week's episode of The World, Richard and Yalda discuss the radically different foreign policy approaches of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. On Ukraine, Israel and Iran – how would each candidate...
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- [00:01]
Kamala Harris
And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
- [00:07]
Donald Trump
And again, I said to Vladimir Putin, I say, don't do it. You can't do it, Vladimir. You do it. It's gonna be a bad day. You cannot do it. And he said, no way. And I said, way.
- [00:30]
Richard Engel
Hello, and welcome to the world. This is. This is Richard Engel, and this time I am fortunate enough to be in Sicily, one of my favorite places in the world.
- [00:39]
Yalda Hakim
And I'm Yalda Hakim. Richard, really nice to see you. We were actually together just in the last few days, but I'm now back in London, as you can see, with my coat back on. I can see that you're still in the Sicilian sun with your T shirt.
- [00:52]
Richard Engel
Lucky me. Unlucky you. And a lot to talk about because we are now on the edge of history. It feels like we are at a moment of. Of potential great change with the US Election just one week out, so a lot to unpack.
- [01:06]
Yalda Hakim
So this week on the podcast, we'll be talking about Kamala Harris and Donald Trump and what their potential foreign policies.
- [01:13]
Richard Engel
Could look like and which one of them is likely to make the world a more stable or a more dangerous place. And for all those who've been tuning in and listening, and we're gaining followers each week, make sure that you are following us wherever you are listening. And you can watch on YouTube if you want to watch the whole thing. And please send us a question to theworldky.uk so let's get going.
- [01:44]
Yalda Hakim
I think one of the best ways to tell America's story is, as a foreigner, to look at America, you know, and help America understand themselves from a foreign perspective and help the world understand America. I think that's. That's something I've always enjoyed doing when I've been reporting on America, and certainly in an election time where we get to know more about the bizarre, the fascinating, the weirdness of American politics and the fact that it is, frankly, the greatest show on earth. And we've seen that over the course of the last year, haven't we?
- [02:15]
Richard Engel
Can I tell you something? People freak out when I tend to show up in the United States and do any kind of domestic reporting because they think, well, what's going on? This isn't his department. He does wars and conflicts in foreign places. When I show up in the US It's a bad sign. But let me just put it to you this way. I'm in Sicily now, heading to the US to cover the elections. I'm bringing a flak jacket with me, not because I'm expecting civil war. It could be because from there I have to deploy to some other war zone. So I often carry it with me, but I'm also carrying it because I think there's a decent chance that you could have unrest in the immediate period after the election.
- [02:56]
Yalda Hakim
But, you know, these were the predictions that were made in 2016, when Trump, you know, won that particular election. I remember newsrooms around the world, certainly in America, our newsrooms here in the UK were, as they were deploying staff to go and cover the election, they were preparing for potential riots. Same with 2020. And of course, in 2020, it was a very different scenario, wasn't it? I mean, the, the election results weren accepted, you know, immediately after. It took days and days and days. I remember being there. I remember being in Philadelphia where the count was taking place in the convention center. It wasn't until January 6th, where we saw those riots break out that you're.
- [03:37]
Richard Engel
Alert much higher this time because both sides are painting it as the apocalyptic event, the end all, be all election. If the Harris campaign is saying, if Trump wins, it's going to be the end of democracy as we know it, it's the end of the United States. And Trump, if you listen to his rallies, he's saying exactly the same thing. If Harris wins, it's the end of America. It's total failure, total collapse. It's a steal, it's a takeover, it's a con. So both sides are geared up for an all or nothing fight.
- [04:08]
Yalda Hakim
Richard, it feels to me like they're almost both trading on the same thing. Fear and change. They're both selling the same message, both Harris and Trump, you know, saying that if you vote for the other, you know, you need to vote for change. Literally, it feels like the messaging is almost the same thing.
- [04:26]
Richard Engel
Yelda, maybe it would be good if we broke it down into a few regions. Maybe we looked at a couple of the hotspots. We talk about the Middle East, Iran, we could talk about Ukraine, talk about how they differ, what we might expect from the two candidates if either one of them, when one of them assumes office.
- [04:43]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, let's talk about Ukraine first and just have a listen to what Vice President Kamala Harris said. Had to say.
- [04:50]
Richard Engel
She's finally made her position clearer.
- [04:52]
Kamala Harris
Five days before Russia attacked Ukraine, I met with President Zelensky to warn him about Russia's plan to invade. I helped mobilize a global response, over 50 countries to defend against Putin's aggression. And as president, I will stand strong with Ukraine and our NATO allies.
- [05:16]
Richard Engel
So couldn't be clearer. She's an internationalist. She says, I was involved in helping to mobilize the coalition to protect Ukraine two and a half years ago and she's proud of it. This is a badge of honor for her and she's going to keep doing it. So finally she's, she's laid out a very clear policy that is going to be very popular in many European capitals. I don't know if it necessarily is going to be as popular in the United States, but that's what she's, that's what she's counting on.
- [05:43]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. And Richard, I mean, might I remind you that in the days after Russia invaded Ukraine, I remember seeing these headlines where President Zelensky was believed to have said to Joe Biden, who said to him, listen, I can send a plane to get you out of there. And he said, I don't need a ride, I need weapons.
- [06:04]
Richard Engel
I need you to say about that. He confirmed that story to me personally.
- [06:08]
Yalda Hakim
It was actually the Ukrainians who said, no, we're not going to flee. We're not going to get on planes and leave. We're going to stay and fight. Need you. The west to do is to supply us weapons. What we've seen over the course of the last two and a half years, frankly, is a slow, grinding war of attrition where millions of Ukrainians have been displaced from their homes, thousands of people have been killed. Ukraine is now going to experience another cold winter where they will freeze because Russia has hit their infrastructure and their energy supplies. So what we have is a situation where, yes, the Americans have supplied the shopping lists that the Ukrainians have provided them and said, we need tanks, we need long range missiles, we need all sorts of things that you can give us so that we can fight this war. But they've also had a number of missed opportunities, frankly, over the course of the last two and a half years.
- [07:06]
Richard Engel
But no country has more on the line with this election than Ukraine. Ukraine is completely dependent on the United States for weapons, completely dependent on it for intelligence. And by that I mean like satellite imagery and for money as well. The Ukraine project doesn't succeed if the US Support dries up. And that's what President Trump has said he will do. And he made that clear as well. I think we've got another clip. But a very different vision for Ukraine laid out by Trump.
- [07:42]
Donald Trump
A deal could have been made. There wouldn't have been one person that died and there wouldn't have been one golden tower laying shattered on its side, a deal could have been made if we had a competent president instead of a president that egged it all on. And Biden and Kamala allowed this to happen by feeding Zelensky money and munitions like no country has ever seen before. Every time he came to our country, he'd walk away with $60 billion. He's probably the greatest salesman on earth.
- [08:23]
Richard Engel
So there you've got it. One one says she's one says Kamala Harris says she's going to keep funding and will keep supporting Ukraine. And Trump says funding them just makes the war go on. So by implication, he's not going to keep funding them. So if you're in Ukraine, the choice here is profound. You're either going to get the money cut off or you're going to have to keep going. You're either dead or alive. Are you going to lose part of your country or you're not?
- [08:46]
Yalda Hakim
And Richard, one of the things that you and I both know, and we often hear Ukrainians say this, is the fear of abandonment because they know they are so deeply dependent on Western weapons. Without them, they can't fight this war that is already tilted towards the Russians. But what I will say is, listening to Donald Trump there, what he is saying is what I have heard leaders of the global south or the so called global east say. They say that the west poked the bear, the bear being Russia, that they dangled NATO membership and EU membership in the face of the Russians, even though they knew that ultimately they weren't going to bring Ukraine into NATO. They dangled it, they teased Russia and Russia responded in this way. And now what we have is a situation where behind closed doors in public, the Ukrainians, the president, the defense minister, the chief of intelligence will express frustration, continue to express frustration at the different points where they found that the Americans and the west haven't been able to get those supplies to them as fast as they should have to be able to fight this war in the way that the Ukrainians have wanted to.
- [10:01]
Richard Engel
So which brings us back to our large question. Is an interventionist United States a positive for the world, or is a more isolationist United States better for the world? And I think those are profoundly important questions because Donald Trump has said if he's reelected, he's not just going to, you know, he wouldn't have. He's not going to fund Ukraine anymore. He could have solved this with a personal phone call to President Putin. America first is the agenda. Trump has a new slogan. If you see at his rallies the one he did in Madison Square Garden. The new logo is Trump will F it all things. So he's the. He's the plumber, he's the handyman. He's just going to go in and go into the house and fix all of America's problems. So he will fix it. The world, America first. And Harris is talking about this much more, I guess what you call traditional American role or traditional American role since America took over the mantle of global leadership after Europe's collective suicide during World War II. And the global south, which presents itself as the alternative, clearly doesn't want the American interventionist model. The Global south, which is kind of everybody else, the BRICS plus group, China, Russia, Brazil, other big population centers and economic centers, would much prefer to see the US Sitting on the sideline and not acting as the de facto policeman and arbiter of the world.
- [11:30]
Yalda Hakim
And we saw the summit that took place in Russia over the last few days where all these countries came together, Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, to try and create a sort of an alternative world order.
- [11:46]
Richard Engel
It was a gathering of world leaders on the, on the eve of the US Election. Sort of, if you imagine all these people getting together in a room, it's like, okay, so is this a big opportunity for us?
- [11:57]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. Because I guess what they're trying to see if they can offer the world is, you know, whether they can provide a currency that will challenge the US Dollar, for example, or some kind of world order that would challenge the. The one that, I mean, they believe it's one that was created by the west for the west and that they are on the periphery.
- [12:18]
Richard Engel
So I think they were gathering in Hazan saying, okay, if President Trump wants to take the US off the world stage, we can get on it to it. This can be our time.
- [12:29]
Yalda Hakim
But, you know, if we bring that back to Ukraine and what Donald Trump is likely to do in Ukraine, I mean, I recall, and you've reported on Ukraine for a long time. I recall in 2014 when Crimea was annexed, what did President Obama do about it?
- [12:49]
Richard Engel
Not much.
- [12:50]
Yalda Hakim
Nothing. And, you know, in 2021, when Kabul fell, and it was then the responsibility of the Biden administration to, you know, pull the troops out and ensure that it wasn't the humiliating withdrawal that we saw, which many even in the Trump administration, H.R. mcMast McMaster, who was Trump's national security advisor, you know, whether this is true or not, directly link what happened in Afghanistan to Putin having the sort of the guts even to go and invade Ukraine. And the Americans are going to do nothing. Now, the Americans did do something. They supplied the weapons, they, they supported Ukraine. But did they do it to the extent where in the last few months the Americans have been talking about Ukraine winning this conflict? Well, if you want Ukraine to win this conflict, then you've got to be, you know, more precise in the, that you deliver the winning.
- [13:44]
Richard Engel
You know, it's one of, and what.
- [13:45]
Yalda Hakim
Does winning look like in this circumstance?
- [13:47]
Richard Engel
Open ended questions, you know, it's like we want to win. What does winning mean for Zelensky? Does that mean getting rid of, of the regime of, of, of Vladimir Putin and having Russia become much smaller and all of Ukraine being restored, including Crimea? That would be one vision of, of winning. I, I, I don't think anyone's going to go that far. I mean, pushing for the complete retakeover of Crimea that could actually bring the world to the brink of a nuclear war.
- [14:20]
Yalda Hakim
So Trump potentially, I mean, who knows, as you say, he's so erratic and chaotic and unpredictable. Who knows exactly what his policies towards Ukraine is actually going to be? The hints he's given and his vice president have given is that they are going to try and strike some kind of deal with Putin and bring Zelensky to the table and we will perhaps see parts of Ukraine, eastern Ukraine certainly handed over to the Russians. That could be potentially what they're alluding to, to bring this conflict to an end.
- [14:51]
Richard Engel
Well, going back to your point, I think if the US if you favor an interventionist US and that the world with lots of serious problems has been better off over the last 70 years or so because there has been an active U.S. well, then the U.S. has to do a good job and has to be consistent. But if you believe that an interventionist US is a good thing, then it sounds like you would probably want Harris, if you have that worldview and if you think the US should sit back on the sidelines and act like every other country in the world, then you would probably want Trump and we could.
- [15:30]
Yalda Hakim
Then shift our focus, I guess, to the war in the Middle East. And Trump has, you know, talked about what he would potentially do and his relationship with Benjamin Netanyahu. We've got some clips of what both of them have been saying.
- [15:43]
Richard Engel
Yeah, let's hear those two.
- [15:45]
Donald Trump
Nobody's done what I've done for Israel, so we're going to take care of Israel. We work with Israel. They say that in Israel I could maybe run if things didn't work out here. You could run for Prime Minister of Israel and I get 97% of the vote. Bibi Called me yesterday, called me the day before. We have a very good relationship.
- [16:07]
Kamala Harris
President Biden and I are working to end this war such that Israel is secure, the hostages are released, the suffering in Gaza ends, and the Palestinian people can realize their right to dignity, security, freedom and self determination.
- [16:28]
Yalda Hakim
So, as you say, Kamala Harris laying out there a little bit a hint of what she would likely do. But you know, Richard, I think that for the Harris campaign, for the Biden administration, it's frankly felt like too little, too late for a lot of Muslims and Arabs. Now, of course, they're not a monolithic community. You know, not all Muslims are Arabs, not all Arabs are struggling, she strokes.
- [16:54]
Richard Engel
Struggling in places in the United States with large Muslim communities. They're not convinced because they've seen what's going on in Lebanon, they see what happened in Gaza and they blame Biden. And by blaming Biden, by de facto, they blame her.
- [17:08]
Yalda Hakim
And not just blame her. I mean, she struggled to share a stage with Palestinian Americans, whether it was at the Democratic National Convention or at any of the rallies. And Trump did something in the last few days which was very simple. He brought a bunch of Muslim leaders onto the stage in Michigan and said, american Muslims for Trump. And here I am. And they all took a turn at the microphone and said, he's promised us the war in Gaza is going to be over. Now, whether that's rhetoric or not, the point is that these simple gestures do go a long way. It's not just about actions in the Middle east, but it's about respect.
- [17:46]
Richard Engel
And going back to the point with the conversation we were just having, if you look at those two clips that we just played, Harris laid out a principle. She's going to do X, Y and Z and she's going to push for a ceasefire and she wants to push for a two state solution that gives the Palestinians a state. And she wants decency and peace and stability in the Middle East. And she got a big applause because who wouldn't want that? Who wouldn't want peace and stability and good things and ice creams and yellow dogs and all the rest? All kinds of good things are going to come in the Middle East. Great. That's a principle that you're pushing an argument. And on the Trump side, it was about him. My relationships are so great. Bibi and I are so great. I'm so popular. I can fix this. So he's selling himself as the solution and she's selling a principle that, that as you, we've heard many, many times before and has yet to be realized. So what is more convincing?
- [18:46]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I mean, you know, we both know a lot of similar people, and there was an ambassador from. To DC from the Arab world. I won't name names, but I had just come back from the Republican National Convention, and the Arab ambassador looked at me and said, I didn't go. And we Arabs didn't feel we needed to go to the rnc, because for us, it's pretty clear where Trump sits on things. And we like clarity.
- [19:10]
Richard Engel
By the way, anyone can tell you that past performance is no guarantee of future success. Just because someone was like, you know, behaved in one way in a certain set of circumstances, four years, well, not even eight years ago, does not mean that it will be like that. So they're guaranteeing, ah, we know this. We got Trump, we got this in the bag. He's on our side, we're going to get it. They might be right, but I think there's no guarantee. When you're dealing with a charismatic leader, they always surprise because it's always about them.
- [19:40]
Yalda Hakim
I. I guess what, what they were trying to tell me, not so much that they understood where Trump was gonna go on certain things, but the fact is that this administration has been absent. It hasn't. It has used words like we express concern and they've put out statements and they've made a dozen trips to the Middle east, and yet we've seen complete inaction. There has been a lot of frustration about the number of Palestinians that have been killed, the fact that a ceasefire deal isn't there, so you can't get the hostages out.
- [20:09]
Richard Engel
So where are we coming down on our big question, Would Trump be more dangerous or more safe for the world, or would Harris be safer for the world or more dangerous?
- [20:19]
Yalda Hakim
Richard, I'm not sure if the world is going to be more safe or dangerous under Donald Trump, certainly when it comes to his foreign policy. I know that it will be. It will feel more chaotic and more erratic. But I'm not sure if the world as we have seen it over the course of the last year as a result of the Biden administration and Harris has been part of that, whether it has been a safer world and how much more, frankly, worse it can get under Donald Trump.
- [20:49]
Richard Engel
So is that a couched answer to say probably safer under Donald Trump? Because under Harris and under Biden, it's been such a disaster. I will say I'm trying to force you, to force you in a corner.
- [21:01]
Yalda Hakim
I think that one thing that Donald Trump politely. I'm going to drop the F bomb now because he said when he was asked what Xi Jinping thought of him and whether he took him seriously, he said he thinks I'm effing crazy. So he doesn't know. He takes me seriously because he thinks I'm effing crazy. And I think it's that madman theory that Trump takes, that he's unpredictable, that he's chaotic, that people don't know what he's going to do, that he's not wedded to any single person or issue, that he can fire and hire people, that he speaks thug, that, you know, he knows how to use power. What do you think, though? I haven't asked you.
- [21:38]
Richard Engel
Okay, I'll try and take it apart this way. So if you look at what Biden Harris have been like and what they have done, yes, the world is chaotic, no doubt. It is a very dangerous world. The center is not holding. And that four more years of that, assuming it would be four more years of something similar to that, that's not necessarily a positive outcome as we were talking about. So I can see why people would say, well, four more years of this kind of policy would be a disaster and it would lead to a much more dangerous world because look at the world where we're in right now and that when we were under Trump, things were relatively quiet. There weren't as many major open conflicts. But just because of that, I'm a big believer that Trump hasn't really been tested in that certain way. We've never seen him angry. We've never seen angry in a foreign policy. Everything is sort of gone his way. He's always been a bit of the Teflon Don. He's never gotten something that he really doesn't want or is surprised. He never had a 9, 11. So I, I share the concern that four more years of Biden would be bad for the or could potentially be bad for the world. Because look at the world right now, and I understand people pointing back at Trump and saying, well, so smooth sailing back then. We never really saw him with his back pushed against the wall. So I'll take the opposite view, I think, because he is this charismatic leader and you don't know necessarily what he's going to do from one moment to the next. I think that is, that is profoundly, that that has a, is a more dangerous world, that is a more uncertain world.
- [23:21]
Yalda Hakim
Okay, let's take a short break and we'll be right back.
- [23:36]
Richard Engel
Welcome back. And of course, there was, as we, as we talked about last week, Israel did carry out its retaliatory strike against Iranian military bases, Iranian targets, and that, that just happened.
- [23:48]
Yalda Hakim
It's starting to get a bit weird. Richard, you've predicted things for the last three weeks and, and they've, they've turned out to be, to be right. And you said there is this window just before the US election. If they're going to do it, they'll do it now. And of course, Saturday morning we woke up and we found that it had happened.
- [24:05]
Richard Engel
So can I do this? You can hear me on the mic, that's me patting myself on the back. But I will admit I thought it was going to happen before that, that, that prediction. I thought it was going to happen almost immediately, as soon as the Israel was hit. I figured that the, the Israelis and the Americans would need a few days, maybe a week to, to reload their missile defense systems and that they would carry out a response right away. I only thought that it was going to happen this week because they couldn't wait any longer. Otherwise you're doing it basically on election day in the US and that would be a step too far because it wasn't a major strike. It wasn't on the nuclear facilities, it wasn't on their oil industry. It was a couple of relatively remote military sites. And the Iranians downplayed it. But I don't think it's over. What did you make of the strike?
- [24:57]
Yalda Hakim
Unlike you, Richard, I went to Israel soon after the missiles were launched by Iran. You know, I spent some time with the security establishment and then we had some off the record conversations, some on the record conversations, and they said to me, listen, we're going to take our time settling this account. You know, we want Iran to be jumpy. So it was hard to know exactly which way Israel was going to go. But what was clear was Israel didn't go berserk. You know, it was method, methodical and they did what the Americans asked them to do, which was for it to be targeted strikes. And as you say, whether it was going to have any kind of major implication or impact or it's going to draw the line in the sand the way that the Americans are now saying, listen, let this be the end of this chapter. Who knows? But I'm curious to know actually why you think this isn't the end of it.
- [25:49]
Richard Engel
Oh, not even close. So if you put yourself in Netanyahu's shoes, he was given up a freebie, right? They waited until the last possible minute without looking like they were, were directly trying to influence the election and they, they took these strikes on the missile defense systems around Iran's power stations and around their oil. I should say around their oil production capacity, which is a sign saying, at any time, we can get our planes in there, we can destroy your. Your. Your economy, we can destroy your infrastructure, we can destroy your oil facilities. And I still think they might. But if you're Netanyahu, what did you do? What was your calculation? Your calculation was, a, I've got a free hit, let's take it. B, what happens if Harris wins? Biden said, don't hit. Don't go big, don't hit the nuclear facilities, don't hit the oil infrastructure. Do something proportionate and small. If Netanyahu had ignored that advice and gone big and Harris wins, then he's got a problem that Netanyahu potentially has an enemy in the White House for the next four years, which he obviously doesn't want. And if Trump wins, well, Trump has made it pretty clear that the two of them see eye to eye again. They've had their differences, but now they're back thinking on the same kind of path. So if you're Bibi, your calculation is, I better not do something big, because what if Harris wins? And then I'll have a real problem, and if Trump wins, I can wait, I can do it again.
- [27:21]
Yalda Hakim
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment on going big, going hard, and then finding that they're on the wrong side of Harris. For the last 12 months, what we've seen the Israelis do is despite, you know, the Biden administration urging caution, telling them to sort of, you know, agree to a ceasefire agreement, not kill the number of Palestinians that have been killed, you know, sort of offer the humanitarian aid, especially in places like northern Gaza. Gaza right now, you know, the Israelis have just sort of turned around and said, we're going to do it our way.
- [27:55]
Richard Engel
Yeah, yeah. Bibi has blown off Biden in a profound way, in a way that I've never seen Israel act toward the United States or really any other country act to the United States, a country that is providing them with weapons, providing them with aid, providing them with political cover, providing them with COVID at international institutions like the UN to then just totally thumb your nose at Biden. That has been shocking. And maybe he would have done the same thing with. With Harris. But why, you know, at least, why.
- [28:23]
Yalda Hakim
Wait a week, so close to the election? Yeah, and I guess there are also hawks, you know, I've spoken to off the record over the course of the last week who have said this was a missed opportunity. Netanyahu has had his sights on, on IRAN for, for 15 years, that this was the moment at a time when America is distracted with a its election and at a time where Netanyahu has been able to do whatever he wants and American leadership has frankly been weak.
- [28:51]
Richard Engel
I would tell that hardliner, unfortunately, sir or ma'am, whatever, you'll have plenty of other opportunities. If you think the US Is just distracted now with its domestic politics and that in a week it's all going to become clear and this storm cloud of confusion will blow away, I think you got another thing coming.
- [29:09]
Yalda Hakim
Well, we'll have to wait and see. And we've got our predictions coming up in, in the next few minutes, but I think we've got some questions, Richard. So we've got one from Kevin, who sent us a message on Spotify, and he said the situation in Sudan doesn't seem to be getting much coverage in the news. Any thoughts? Well, I have to say Sky News actually does do a lot of reporting out of Sudan. We've got Yusra El Bagir, who travels.
- [29:32]
Richard Engel
In and out phenomenal.
- [29:33]
Yalda Hakim
She's extraordinary.
- [29:34]
Richard Engel
From beginning in and out, she's done, I think, some of the best work, if not the best work in Sudan, of any international broadcaster.
- [29:45]
Yalda Hakim
Sudan, you know, the greatest humanitarian crisis on the planet, where millions of people have been displaced internally and externally. And there is great concern that that is going to be the influx of the refugees and immigrants who make their way, you know, to places like the UK and other parts of Europe as well. So that issue in SUD is just absolutely horrifying and devastating the humanitarian crisis there.
- [30:12]
Richard Engel
Okay, so I see another one, Hanifa, on Spotify. I am so happy you started this podcast. Well, thank you. I'm glad to hear that. So are we. Do you think the war in the Middle east will escalate if Trump wins the presidency?
- [30:24]
Yalda Hakim
You go first.
- [30:26]
Richard Engel
It's going back to this conversation we were just having. In the short term, probably not. But going forward, if Trump wins the presidency, probably not a ratcheting down or sort of a slowing down, but with the potential of speeding up, dramatically heading toward possible regime change in Iran going by, you know, year two or three.
- [30:51]
Yalda Hakim
I think what we've seen is Benjamin Netanyahu over the course of the last year run rings around the Americans and not listen to anything that they have told him to do. And they have failed to put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu and everything that this particular administration has said that we don't want this war to escalate and spill out. Into the rest of the region. That is exactly what has happened.
- [31:16]
Richard Engel
Trump and Netanyahu and others, particularly now after October 7th, believe there's no accommodation with Iran. Iran is the enemy. And if you remember that speech, I thought it was quite an important speech that Netanyahu gave to Congress and he was addressing Trump and he was getting standing ovations almost on every line from the Republican House members. It was all fire and brimstone against Iran. So I don't know if we're going to see that immediately, but I think there's a distinct possibility that Israel, with US Support, goes to war with Iran if President Trump is elected.
- [31:54]
Yalda Hakim
And Richard, I want to get us to our predictions because frankly, people should just be listening to this podcast for this reason, because you seem to be getting these predictions right. If I were to, to ask you then, who you think is going to win this election?
- [32:07]
Richard Engel
Recipe that I have a magic bullet, the eye of Newts.
- [32:10]
Yalda Hakim
Look at your. Who do you think is going to win? I think if you were to look.
- [32:15]
Richard Engel
Into your crystal ball, I think Trump probably takes it. I think charismatic leaders can be very effective. And they're very effective. When people are afraid. And when people believe that laws and traditions have been corrupt, when people believe that they can't trust laws and that traditions are being ignored, then they go for someone who can be a redeemer for them, who goes beyond the law and who goes beyond tradition and can redeem a nation. And those that, that appeal can be very, can be very strong. And so that would be my guess. That would be my guess.
- [32:55]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah. I'd have to agree with you. And I think one of the fundamental errors I think that the Harris campaign has made. She had a huge amount of momentum when she first stepped in to replace Joe Biden as the candidate was to sell obscure themes like Trump is a threat to democracy. At the end of the day, people are thinking, well, that's not gonna put food on my table. And we have heard it all before. Tell me what you're going to do.
- [33:23]
Richard Engel
So, Yalda, we're gonna be back on Wednesday, the day after the US Election, and we'll do a quick turnaround podcast to react to the events that have just been happening over that 24 hour period with immediate discussion of the results of the US election.
- [33:40]
Yalda Hakim
Yeah, I'll be coming off set at about 5:00 in the morning, so you better be awake for us to record that.
- [33:46]
Richard Engel
So we'll do two podcasts coming up, one immediate results and then one a few days after that. When we have a better sense of where it's heading. Yalda, as always, it is wonderful to talk to you, to see you, Richard.
- [33:57]
Yalda Hakim
It's always good to see you and hear your insights. And I'm looking forward to catching up next week.
- [34:02]
Richard Engel
Until then, ciao from Sicily.
- [34:05]
Yalda Hakim
See you later, Richard. Bye.