← The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
The World with Richard Engel and Yalda Hakim
Will Trump's Gaza plan leave eternal peace in the Middle East?
00:29:20
A new US-brokered deal is on the table: Donald Trump's 20-point plan for Gaza is endorsed by Benjamin Netanyahu and awaiting Hamas's response. It promises hostages freed, aid flowing, and Gaza rebuilt under international oversight. But who really...
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- [00:01]
A
Hi listeners. We love making this podcast and we're always looking at ways to make it even better. We'd really appreciate it if you could take a couple of minutes to fill out our short survey and you'll find the link in the episode description.
- [00:15]
B
Hello, it's me, Yalda, and I'm back in London.
- [00:19]
A
And me, Richard, and I'm in Jerusalem and welcome to the world podcast. So this is a big, big day, a beautiful day, Potentially one of the great days ever in civilization and let's call it eternal peace in the Middle East.
- [00:43]
C
I support your plan to end the war in Gaza, which achieves our war aims. It will bring back to Israel all our hostages, dismantle Hamas military capabilities and its political rule, and ensure that Gaza never again poses a threat to Israel.
- [01:04]
B
Richard, we've got big developments in the peace plan for Gaza. A deal is currently on the table. 20 point peace plan that's been together. It was initially 21 steps, but that's what was leaked and then by the end it was 20.
- [01:21]
A
I counted it once it was 22, but now there's an official version out that's 20 points, but I think over already. That's indicative of how signed, sealed and delivered this thing is. There are so many holes and we're going to get into it and of.
- [01:34]
B
Course we love getting all of your questions, your thoughts, your remarks. We love hearing from you. Send us your thoughts the usual place, theworldsky.uk and of course follow us wherever you get your podcasts on Apple or Spotify.
- [01:49]
A
And you can subscribe to our YouTube channel where you can watch and listen to us at the same time. So check it out and send us some emails.
- [01:58]
B
So Richard, you're in Israel. I've just come back from the UN General assembly in New York and of course this was the talk of the town because on the Monday this is going to sound like a Craig David song. On the Monday we had the two state sort of solution on the table. The French came out and recognized Palestinian statehood. The Brits had done that the day before. A whole host of, frankly, Israel's staunchest allies, Australia, Canada, Britain, France, all came out saying we'd given an ultimatum to Israel if they didn't stop the bloodshed, then we were going to recognize Palestinian statehood, which they did. On the Tuesday we heard Donald Trump speak and make that speech where he told everyone frankly off. Then on the Wednesday we had Ukraine. By the Friday it was Benjamin Netanyahu giving a fiery speech, that extraordinary walkout at the UN protests outside and all I could hear all week from the Arab leaders I was talking to was Trump has a peace plan on the table. He's going to convince Benjamin Netanyahu to accept it. And that, frankly, is what it felt like was happening at that press conference. So, Richard, let's talk firstly about what this 20 point peace plan actually is. You know, I guess my first reaction was is it perfect? No. Is it a plan? Yes. Is it perhaps the most sophisticated piece of paper we have seen over the course of the last 24 months? Yes. Because frankly, everything else has crumbled. You know, you and I know this region very well. The idea that there would be peace in the Middle east or, you know, I remember in 2016, Donald Trump describing the situation between the Israelis and the Palestinians and the situation in the Middle east as he would be able to strike the deal of the century. He's called this perhaps the greatest deal in civilization.
- [03:59]
A
Oh, I know, I love that. That was. He didn't say it's just the deal of the century. It's the deal of the millennia. And he was describing it like this was the second coming of Christ here. We haven't had a deal like this in 2000 years and it's gonna bring peace to civilization.
- [04:14]
B
Yeah. So just first of all, talk our audience through what really stood out for you from this plan.
- [04:21]
A
It's only 20 points. And the basic ones are that Gaza will no longer be run by Hamas, that Gaza will be a demilitarized, de radicalized area. They have to build the future of Gaza for the Gazans, which is sort of self evident. And that they will be. It will be run not by Hamas, but there'll be this apolitical. So not a political party, not the Palestinian Authority, not another political party, an apolitical group of technocrats who are supposed to supervise the collecting of the trash and basic services in the country. Unarmed, unmilitarized, unradicalized, apolitical, and that there will be a security force from. It was quite vague who's going to put these force together. And the whole thing will be overseen in a neocolonial way, I guess, by a chairman of the board, Donald Trump, chairman of the peace board and former Prime Minister of the uk, Tony Blair, who has a long history, not a very successful history, but a long history of negotiating peace in the Middle East. To do this, Hamas has to release all of the hostages, live ones, and the remains, and agree to these terms. Otherwise, Trump says, and BB say, the military campaign is going to get even worse. And this is non negotiable It's a take it or leave it deal. And it has been embraced by a lot of Arab and Muslim countries, including key ones, Jordan, Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia. Is it a perfect deal? Absolutely not. Is it going to be complex and break down at times? Almost. Almost undoubtedly. But is it better than just the daily slaughter that we've been seeing in Gaza for the last two years? And could it lead to a better result? Maybe.
- [06:22]
B
I spoke to Mustafa Barghouti, you know, long time, sort of one of the elders of the Palestinians. He's been around a long time. He's been in every major negotiation room discussing the two state solution for decades. And he said to me, you know, we find ourselves in this sort of conundrum because we want the bloodshed to end, we want to cease fire, so we'll want to accept this. But on the other hand, we feel quite screwed because, you know, where in it does it talk about self determination? This isn't just something in a UN Charter. Every group of people have the right to decide their own affairs, their own future, their own country. But I guess for me, if we were really to break this down. Richard de Radicalize is one thing. Demilitarize actually is not just about guns being taken away. Every conversation I have had with Hamas, now, you know, you and I all agree Hamas is a terrorist organization. They also have a political wing. They also had governance over Gaza. Now the, the group that I have spoken to in Doha, and these are the moderates, and yet they say in terms of demilitarizing, you know, it's unthinkable because it's linked to their resistance. They said, fine, no occupation. And, and then we'll demilitarize. But with having weapons is linked to their resistance. So they link it then to occupation. For as long as we are occupied, we are going to continue our resistance, which means we are not going to give up our weapons, which means the Israelis are going to continue to bomb them.
- [07:57]
A
And that is the core of the issue, that the Israelis want the Palestinians in exchange for life and being allowed to live on the pile of rubble that is now Gaza, they have to give up the resistance. That's what it boils down to. They can no longer dream that they're going to come back to Israel or try and carve out part of their more autonomy with force. They have to give up the resistance. And will the Palestinians accept that? Today they may have no other choice because they've been defeated militarily? Maybe in a generation things could be different. But right now, technically speaking, Militarily, they lost and they lost badly. So they're being dictated terms. This is a surrender agreement. What they get in exchange for surrendering, agreeing to leave office, leave power, never able to come back. Hamas fighters will be given amnesty if they put down and decommission their weapons. And they have to blow up the tunnels. They have to stop being a resistance group and go away. That's the terms of this deal. And for many Gazans, I've been speaking with Gazans this morning, they, like Marguti was, was describing you, are torn. They can't take it anymore. They can't physically keep moving from place to place and seeing people bombed and killed every day, all day long. Hospitals aren't working, there's no food. You can only take so much of that. And they've been defeated militarily, but they also don't want long term occupation and to give up their whole dignity, to give up their aspirations. One person described it to me, and this is an old analogy here, but you're hearing it more and more. And as an American, I think it might even be a little controversial. It's a bit like the arrangement that the United States came to, a horrible forced arrangement with the Native American community or what the Australians did with the aborigines, the native Australian population demilitarized in sort of collective areas where they have a nominal degree of self autonomy, not a threat to anybody else, and they're just supposed to stay there and be quiet and accept it. And I think that's what's being proposed to the Gazans, a reservation.
- [10:18]
B
The ball is now in Hamas's court. I think that Benjamin Netanyahu, he's not called the magician for no reason. He's played this smart. He hasn't tried to tweet, twist Trump's arm or try and say, no, I want to continue and I haven't reached my objectives yet. And he knew this was the end of the road for him, that Trump had said enough. And in closed door, off record conversations that I had with Arabs in New York, senior Arab leaders, you know, from the region, they said to me they have felt more hopeful in this moment than they did at any other point that, that Trump and, and Witkoff and Jared Kushner and the entire team around Trump were going tell Benjamin Netanyahu how it was going to be rather than ask or negotiate this. Now the Arabs, the Muslim majority leaders have been quietly working away with the Trump team on this. So for the Trump world standards, this is a quite sophisticated document. You know, it isn't kind of just like, you know, half an A4 page or something on the back of an envelope or post it.
- [11:26]
A
Or a truth social.
- [11:28]
B
Yeah, or a truth social post, which is how he devises policy in all caps. This is actually to Trump's credit. Let's have a look at what is missing from this document. A few months ago, there was concern about ethnic cleansing. There was concern about the Riviera of the Middle east pushing Palestinians out.
- [11:49]
A
And this document specifically says. Yeah, they stay.
- [11:51]
B
Yeah, that. They stay. That the idea of the Riviera of the Middle east has gone away from the table. The idea of annexation of the west bank, which is what the Israelis said that they were going to do just in the last. Last week or so, and the Emiratis had to step in and say, for us, annexation of the West. West bank is a red line. And they sent that message to the White House and they made that publicly known that we are not going to accept annexation. They made that very clear last week to Donald Trump. They were telling him what is at stake. And it felt like the penny had finally dropped. And Donald Trump fully grasped at that moment. Now, they were saying, it's always the last person he speaks to with Donald Trump. You know, he was agreeing with the Arab leaders. They were worried between the Wednesday meeting that they had and the Monday when Benjamin Netanyahu was there. And I was also being told that those close to Trump were saying, put your leaders on speed dial. If we get the sense that Benjamin Netanyahu is going to now try and convince Trump that he needs to continue this war to the end of the year or whenever, call Mohammed bin Salman, call the Emir of Qatar, get MBZ of the UAE on the phone, get them to talk directly to Trump and say, no, we do not accept this. Now, we could be cynical and say this is about economics and money and.
- [13:10]
A
Deals, because we know those factors. Those things never, you know, come into play in geopolitics or let alone Middle Eastern politics.
- [13:17]
B
Right. But we also know that these sorts of deals, the idea of amnesty for these Hamas fighters, I've spoken to Mossad, who said, why did we launch this silly strike on Qatar now? Which. Which became the breaking point. There's always another day in this region, you know, give them amnesty somewhere else and hit them at some point. There's always another day. So this idea of safe pass, we saw that with Yasser Arafat in 1982, when his organization, the PLO, were given safe passage out of Beirut and told, off you go. Go and stay somewhere Else, and we'll negotiate a deal that culminated in Hezbollah, the rise of Hezbollah and various other groups, including continued fighting and the ongoing sort of their own resistance movement against the Israelis. So we know what this region is like. So the question now is, will it actually get off the ground?
- [14:08]
A
All right, so let's do it. On the positive side, stay on with your enthusiastic, your optimism and the smile on your face is encouraging me. So on the positive side, okay, it says no annexation of Gaza, says that the Gazans stay, they will remain there, they will be run by Palestinians. We don't exactly know. They're supposed to be non radical Palestinians, they're supposed to be non political Palestinians. They're going to be unarmed, but Palestinians. And that the Israelis withdraw over time and that there'll be this international security force. It could have been worse. It could have been ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians, sending them all into Egypt or Sudan. So on the positive side, stops the fighting, gets the hostages out, gets Hamas out of power, 2,000 Palestinian prisoners out. So the problem, as far as I can tell looking at these, you know, these 20 points and having covered this region for quite a while, is that it's so subjective. What is a non radical government that poses that Gaza can never pose a threat to Israel? Based on whose opinion? Whose definition of radical? Israel's. And that can be very subjective. That the Israelis are supposed to pull back from Gaza sort of as they see progress.
- [15:30]
B
Did you hear the menacing line as well? You know, if Hamas doesn't agree or if Hamas continues and doesn't do as this plan outlines, then Benjamin Netanyahu knows what to do with them. As in carry on bombing them, which means carry on bombing, you know, a population, women and children who have continued to die in this war.
- [15:51]
A
And another issue that Palestinians feel is that it's replacing Israeli occupation for American and British occupation. And there's a history in this region of American and British occupation and it's not a welcome one. So for Gazans, okay, yes, they don't get killed today, but instead there's this new occupying force and that all of the benchmarks of how much food can go in, how much supplies, where Israeli troops are, how far they pull back, is all kind of discretionary based on the Israelis assessment of how things are going. And I can see that being a real, real, real problem over time. And you'll end up with Gazans who, like I said, feel like they're living on a reservation where they are some sort of cultural relic. They live there, they're supposed to cook and, you know, live their lives and have babies and make food or whatever, and not dream or think about anything else or have any kind of political thoughts. They're just supposed to have a small life with small dreams and small aspirations. And that generally doesn't work because humans don't work that way. When you put people in a box, they dream of getting out of it.
- [17:07]
B
And Richard, you know, I'm curious to know. You're back in Jerusalem. You lived there for many years. You've seen these sorts of peace deals come and go. Let's talk about Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition government and also, also the Israeli population and public because the majority of Israelis want out from this war. I was actually also told that Ron Dermer, who is the sort of brains of Benjamin Netanyahu, you know, the, the, the architect of many of Benjamin Netanyahu's strategies and plans, wanted out of this and was going to advise Bibi, as he's known, to take this pass and basically agree to get out of this. But Richard, let's talk about, you know, the, the far right, Benjamin Netanyahu, because you and I have spoken almost every week about Benjamin Netanyahu and his survival. He wants to survive. He wants to ensure that he gets re elected. He is Israel's longest serving prime minister. He is a survivor. Literally. He thinks that he's on a mission from God.
- [18:12]
A
He could ditch the far right parties. He could ditch Ben Gavir and Smotrich who say they hate this deal and reposition himself as I'm the guy who brought the hostages home. I'm the strong man that Israel needs and form another coalition. Ben GVIR and Smutrich, who are the extreme on the far right here, have come out already and said they hate the deal. They hate everything about it. They hate Netanyahu for signing it. They haven't said, however, that they would resign because if they resign, they could be replaced. So there is a possibility that this deal could help, help Netanyahu form a more solid coalition, not be as dependent on the radicals. I think there's a lot of people in Israel who'd be delighted if Ben GVIR and Smotrich at this stage decided they're gonna throw their toys out of the pram and left the government because there would be plenty of people who would come in, even with Netanyahu to sort of save the day and maybe give him a more broad based government. Can I ask you a question, though?
- [19:10]
B
Sure. Go.
- [19:11]
A
Why do you get so upset when hearing about Tony Blair and the Middle East?
- [19:15]
B
Well, well, actually, let's go to a break and when we come back from the break, let's break this down about Tony Blair, what his past has been.
- [19:23]
A
All right, let's take a break and we'll come back.
- [19:31]
B
So welcome back. And of course, we've been Talking about the 20 point peace plan that Donald Trump announced to the world with Benjamin Netanyahu standing beside him, put together by Arab leaders, the Trump team, and basically twisting Benjamin Netanyahu's arm to agree to it. We're still waiting at the time of recording for Hamas to revise it and agree to it. It would take a lot for Hamas at this point to think that they've got any cards and that they would try and play those cards and, you know, not agree to this. So we'll have to watch that. But before the, we went to the break, Richard, you asked about Tony Blair. Let's talk about Tony Blair, because that has raised serious eyebrows. And I said I'd spoken to Mustafa Boguti and he described Tony Blair's involvement as some kind of sick joke. You know, how did we get here? Again, let's just go back a little bit to Tony Blair's history. What we actually, you know, link him to, what we associate him to the trauma of the nation I'm in right now in Britain and, you know, the, the whole Iraq war and then his career after the Iraq war. Let's talk a little bit about that.
- [20:40]
A
Well, I'll start with the beginning of his involvement in the Middle east in terms of the Iraq war, because I covered the Iraq war. I lived there for five years in Baghdad. And he was early on a supporter of the Iraq intervention, Afghanistan intervention. President Bush's what was later known as the jiwat, the global war on terrorism, when they were protests in London and there were protests around the world that Bush shouldn't topple Saddam Hussein shouldn't invade Iraq because there was no evidence that he had any weapons of mass destruction or was involved in any way in 9 11. And Tony Blair was there every day and was incredibly useful. I watched this as, not only as a reporter, but as an American reporter because President Bush was not particularly well spoken. Tony Blair was quite eloquent and polished and he became something of Bush's international spokesman. So whenever Bush wanted to talk about the war and sell the war, it was very convenient for him to bring up Tony Blair, who could make it just sound perfect and magical and glorious and he could really sell it. But of course, the war was a disaster and he just kept getting promoted and he kept getting promoted up to other jobs in the Middle East. Then he was part of this thing called the Quartet, and it involves the eu, Russia, the US and the United Nations. And this Quartet was supposed to solve the Middle East.
- [22:13]
B
I mean, I think after the disaster of the Iraq war, we have a generation of foreign policy experts and analysts and policymakers who are traumatized about devising policy of intervention. There were so many lessons that the foreign policy world took from Iraq, good ones, bad ones, and a lot of it was put down to. And the finger of blame, rightly so, was pointed towards George W. Bush and Tony Blair in this country, you know, there is still a lot of anger. People describe him as a war criminal and because of, you know, the intervention in, in the war in Iraq, because he knew that the intelligence was wrong. You know, they famously said they prayed together and, and there was almost like divine intervention around this. And then of course, as you say, he popped up again in the Middle east as special envoy of this Quartet for the Israeli Palestinian affairs. Tony Blair had based himself out of the five star, beautiful American colony in East Jerusalem, where he would basically hold court there. And journalists, policymakers, foreign dignitaries would go there and say things like, you know, they were surprised by the fact that he would talk about economic development in Jenin, you know, and economic development in different parts of the west bank, when people knew the reality on the ground was so different. And that fact that he was so removed from the reality on the ground, he was so removed from understanding the complexities of the situation on the ground. And I think that is why so many people have had an allergic reaction where we're seeing almost a Tony Blair 3.0. We saw, you know, him up until 2007 when he was the British Prime Minister and as you say, the kind of glorified spokesperson of George W. Bush. And then we saw his role as, you know, special envoy to the Middle east, trying to bring peace to the Middle east, and it actually amounting to nothing. And now this third chapter. But I think ultimately he was disconnected from the realities on the ground, the realities of the relationship between Israelis and Palestinians, the checkpoints and the feeling of, you know, being occupied that the Palestinians felt. And so, so while if we circle back to where we were at the beginning of this podcast and talk about the positives, so the riviera of the Middle east gone away, the annexation of the west bank gone away. And yet Tony Blair has made a comeback. And we talk about part of this 20 step process of this peace plan does include an Economic buffer zone. So what is that economic buffer zone? Who is investing within that economic buffer zone? We'll have to wait and see, Richard. You know, I think at this moment in time, if suddenly, you know, the hostages are released, there's a ceasefire, Hamas agrees to not govern the Gaza Strip, and we see aid flooded into Gaza, then we are in a position where frankly, those things that people have been demanding for the last two years have been achieved.
- [25:43]
A
It's complex. I mean, you don't want to be here saying, oh, this is terrible, that they made some sort of 20 point peace plan because it was Trump who did it and because it involves Tony Blair. Who cares if Trump did and who cares if Tony Blair is involved? If it stops the bloodshed and leads to a better place for humanity, great. There are just a lot of holes, there are a lot of places where this could fall apart or you could find a place if you wanted it to fall apart. Before we go, what is going on in Afghanistan? The Taliban just cut off the Internet, which was the only way, particularly for women to access education, access information about hygiene, lots of medical treatments. They were totally isolated. The Internet was the only window to the outside world and they've shut it and now it's caused chaos. You can't get. I've been trying to text friends, you can't reach them.
- [26:41]
B
What's going on? Yeah, I was the same all of last night, you know, in the middle of this kind of peace plan coming out and how busy we've been trying to deal with this. I've been texting people in the country and getting only one tick on WhatsApp, because of course, they've been plunged into darkness.
- [26:56]
A
And in, in a certain sense it's worse because they had 20 years to look out the window. And I'm, I'm not saying it would have been worse if they'd never seen outside, but to a degree it is. If you've been told for 20 years your life is going to get better, you have freedom, you have rights, you have value, and then to have that taken away, you know, it's. To love and loss is worse, I think, than to have never loved at all, I believe.
- [27:24]
B
No, I agree with you, Richard. And so many Afghan women have said that to me that we were told by our mothers that we were never going to be like them and go through what they did in the first time that the Taliban were in power. And for those young women to now go through exactly what their mothers went through is gut wrenching. And before we go, Richard, We've just got some news that President Trump says he will give Hamas three or four days to respond to the ceasefire proposal. So basically they have till the end of the week to respond. Benjamin Netanyahu said that, you know, it's now in the ball is now in Hamas's court. So they will go through the Qataris. No doubt there'll be pressure from the Arab world for them to agree to this. And we'll have to wait and see what they actually say.
- [28:14]
A
Hamas first response to this was what? We weren't even consulted. Where is this coming from? And I think that knocked them down a peg, that at this stage, they're not even being consulted, they're being presented terms. These are the terms, take them or leave them. You take them. Yeah, they're not great for you. You lost the war. But if you don't take them, we're going to continue this campaign and escalate it. So this is, this is a difficult decision for Hamas. And as you said, they're going to be on. They are under a lot of pressure from Arab states, from Muslim countries to just sign something, stop the bloodshed, or at least, least try to stop the bloodshed and learn and live to sort of, I don't want to say fight another day, but learn to continue, continue existing another day. Well, great to see you, Yalda.
- [29:02]
B
Absolutely. Richard, always good to talk to you. You're always in the right place at the right time back in Israel in this moment. Richard, good to see you. And thank you so much to our listeners for listening.