← The Zach Lowe Show
The Zach Lowe Show
Are the Thunder in Trouble? Plus, a Look Back at the Brandon Miller-Scoot Henderson Debate.
01:50:47
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- [00:00]
A
This episode of the Zach Lowe show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless, just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers, whether it's online or in person. State Farm's your teammate when you need help making your next play. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. Foreign. Is over. It was pretty good. Not bad. We talked about it with Bill the other day. I'm not going to talk much about it anymore. All Stars All Star.
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B
It's fun.
- [00:41]
A
I love All Stars still, despite all the obvious flaws. Second half of the season or last third of the season. A lot of big questions. Now we gear up. Yeah, tanking has been the topic to jor. Got to talk about tanking. A lot of teams are tanking. There's going to be some bad games when the tankers play each other. It's a tank off of epic proportions.
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B
But.
- [00:59]
A
But now we gear up for playoff basketball teams chasing the prize that we all do this to talk about the NBA championship. We're going to talk about big questions for the rest of the season with the great Rob Mahoney. And we're going to talk mostly about the best teams. The championship race, the playoff race. For whom would missing the top six be the biggest disaster? What coach is maybe on the hot seat? Is Oklahoma City more vulnerable than we might have thought when they were 24 1? If so, who should they be afraid of? The Pistons? Are they ready for prime time? All the numbers suggest that. Indeed they are. All of that and more with Rob Mahoney. And then J. Kyle man joins. Why? Because Brandon Miller, I think his contributions to the Hornets rise have been going a little bit underappreciated. And his draft sort of. What is the word I'm looking for? I don't know. His draft counterpart. Scoot Henderson scoots back. Did you guys all forget about Scoot Anderson? Four games of Scoot. I think it's time to talk a little bit about those two and that draft. And so Jay, Kyle, man, I are going to do that. That's all coming up on the Zach Lowe Show. This episode of the Zach Lowe show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless, just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers, whether it's online or in person. State Farm's your teammate when you need help making your next play. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. Welcome to the Zach Low show. All Star is over. I'm still processing the loss of my beloved Team Stripes. Team Stripes forever. But it's time to move on to the last third in the season and, and the tanking. We're going to talk about the tanking, but we're, we're almost at the playoffs. Home stretch. Real stakes, real teams, championship race. Rob Mahoney, how are you doing?
- [03:00]
B
I'm ready for real basketball. I'm ready to pick up the pieces and move on with whatever it is that happened over All Star Weekend, good or bad, but let's just get back to it. You know, I'm. The break is nice, but I'm ready for basketball again.
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A
Look, a couple of my hot takes, I'm just going to, I don't want to talk about the game. The All Star game itself, I, I, I thought was great. USA versus the world. Let's keep it. I would like it to be one game with one box score and find a way to make each quarter a mini game. I don't know how you combine those two things, but that's neither here nor there. Here are my two hot takes. Number one. The dunk contest was good. Not great. I think it was like B, B minus. And here's, here's my take. Rob Mahoney, Carter. I don't know what Jackson Hayes was doing. I don't know if he thought it was like the goal was to just have mediocre dunks. Like the, the most average dunk possible is, was what he was going for. And Jason Richardson just, you know, stayed healthy. Knock on wood.
- [03:51]
B
Thank goodness.
- [03:52]
A
I thought Carter Bryant and Kashad Johnson brought out pretty strong dunks. And if famous people had done those dunks, people would have thought it was a good dunk Dunk contest. That's my dunk contest take.
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B
Yeah, but that's how celebrity works and it's All Star Weekend, so, yeah, the stars doing stuff does tend to matter a little bit more than, with all due respect, Keyshawn Johnson doing it. Who, like, again, they tried their best. The dunks were not bad, but they were good, man.
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A
Their eyes are at the rim. They're doing crazy stuff with the ball. The dunks are objectively good dunks.
- [04:22]
B
I'm sorry, someone has to say objectively they were fine. They were fine dunks. I think we can all move on with our 50s.
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A
50S got scored.
- [04:30]
B
Look, well, that's score inflation. That's, you know, there's, there's some score laundering going on.
- [04:35]
A
Look, I know this, first of all, we had a date night after that on Valentine's Day by accident because my wife, thank God, doesn't give a shit about Valentine's day. But it happened to be Valentine's Day. And one margarita ended date night. She had some takes on the dunk contest and why the stars should participate. And like she was letting it, she was letting it fly. Some expletives happen. And I do think the NBA is going to try and pressure a little bit next year. I think Vince Carter is sort of nominated himself as an unofficial dunk ambassador, is going to try to get some of the stars to participate. Here's my other hot take. And forgive me, I'm repeating this from Bill's podcast, but I can't resist. I think Con Knippel wins the three point shootout if Bill does not drive him home from the podcast. I think Bill softened him up. Yeah, you know, he wasn't ready for the pressure because people are coddling him. Like, let him get an Uber. He's two years older than your son. He's, he's, he can get in an Uber and maybe he wins a three point shootout if we re sliding doors that decision.
- [05:34]
B
It was the reveal of the NBA season for me, learning that Bill indeed drove him home uber style. 5 stars for Bill Simmons. I, I, I don't know what to do with this information.
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A
I want to know so much about what happened in the car ride. I assume there was no music or anything because Bill just asked a lot of questions about the shirts and tanking. I just want to know, like, what did they, what did they talk about? Did, what did Bill say? So what's Lamelo really like? Like what, like what? I want to know everything about it.
- [06:00]
B
You do have to know what Lamelo is really like. And I mean, what better way to, than to go to the source. But if you are Bill, do not. But first, Pearl Jam yourself on your own drive home with Khan Kanipple. I feel like the opportunity is right there to educate the youth.
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A
Did he take the scenic route to prolong his time with Khan Cannipal? I, these are questions that people need to know. Okay. I said, rob, we're going to, we're going to do X number of big questions for the last whatever of the season. 30 games, 35 games and we're going to, that's what we're going to do. Big questions. I gave you the questions. Question number one, Rob Mahoney, Are the Oklahoma City Thunder more vulnerable than they were than we thought they were when they were 24 and 1? They are 18 and 13. Since that moment they have the 10th best offense in the league. So good, but not great. In those 31 games they have slid to only two games in the loss column, ahead of the spurs and behind the Pistons in the race for home court in the theoretical finals. Are they more vulnerable? I know you did your ringer championship pie. I think you still gave them a strong 40% of the championship pie. Do you stand by that? Are they more or less vulnerable or same level of vulnerability?
- [07:07]
B
I think they're more vulnerable and a lot of it for me is they've just slipped from not only the offense as you talked about, but slipped from like pick a God and start to pray levels of defensive dominance to merely incredibly elite defense. And the difference within that is all the pressure that it put now puts on that offense, which on a given night might look like one of the best in the league on another might be a little rickety with the three point variance. I just think they put themselves in a position where they are more vulnerable but still the favorites. And that feels, that feels totally fair to say at this point in the season.
- [07:40]
A
I think they're the same level of vulnerable that I thought they were before the season, which is. I think they're going to win the championship and get out of the West. But I think it's going to be hard, particularly in the west and that's always been my take. I've thought Denver could go toe to toe with them from, from day one. Going to talk about Denver in a second. I'm a, I'm a little bit, I'm a little bit worried about them and I'm saying same level of vulnerability and not less because they just have had so many injuries and may maybe I should say a little bit more because Shay and J Dub are both being re evaluated for their various injuries after the All Star break. And this is Jaylen Williams second hamstring issue that he's had this year. And so that's like a little bit of an alert. So I'll. I'll change my answer to a little bit more vulnerable. But they've had those two out. Hartenstein missed games, Caruso has missed a bunch of games, A.J. mitchell's missed a bunch of games. Chet missed some games. They've just had so many guys out that you look at the lineups, they're Playing like this is not even close to the real team. Now all that said, the J Dub hamstring stuff is a little, you know, so has to be noted. Yeah, and I don't know, man, I. As limited as they have been personnel wise, I do watch some of these games and I'm curious for your take on this. And I'm like, I come away thinking Chad had a really good game. He was a no brainer all star for me. He was not a no brainer all star for everybody. Is it not fair to ask a little bit more? He hasn't scored more than 20 points in a game since January 23rd. Now it's only like eight or nine games, but there's a lot like 13, 14, 15, like can you give me. I know you're not like a back down ISO guy, like you don't quite have the speed to blow by wings and you can't dislodge anybody. But I don't, I get that's not your game, but is that unfair? Do you ever feel that?
- [09:30]
B
I feel it all the time. And I think especially with the injury situation as you laid out, sometimes asks a little more of him or should ask a little more of him and J Dub situation, not just with the hamstring but with everything that's been going on with his wrist now for basically two seasons, is it would have been great to get a real Chet bump in terms of his ability to create even in just like little spot situations. As you're saying, it's not can you go ISO against literally every opponent, it's can you be opportunistic enough to generate six extra points when we need it or you know, when the rubber really hits the road, I don't think we've seen a lot of progress to that effect. I think we've seen him be overall very good. As you said, clearly an all star. The defense is unimpeachable. His impact on the game in terms of the combination of stretch and finishing is pretty profound. But what they need is secondary creation and scoring. And J Dub is having the kind of season where between these two injuries, now he's having his worst finishing season of his career, his worst mid range shooting season of his career, his worst three point shooting season of his career. And that's with all due respect to J D and everything he brings to the game. The single most important contribution in terms of the Thunder formula is what he's able to do to kind of spell and play off of Shai. And so if J Dub isn't doing that and Chet isn't doing that. Now, a lot of these games and a lot of these moments are like, is Aaron Wiggins hitting threes tonight? Is Kayson Wallace hitting threes tonight? Like, you see the formula start to spell out in a way that feels a little bit more vulnerable and a little more rickety than you would expect even of a defending champion.
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A
Now they're shooting after going into a deep trough, has started to normalize a little bit. Like Caruso's hit some threes lately. Dort's been hot by his standards. Case and Wallace has been hot. Their offense, I said it was, I think it was 10th in that 31 game span. At one point it was like 14th or 15th. So it has ticked up despite the injuries. And McCain, McCain just feels like free money for them. Although they paid a hefty price in draft picks. They have draft picks to spare. He's. I guess Mitchell will render him maybe redundant and out of the playoff rotation because he brings the same level, probably a better level of offense and a much better level of defense. But McCain feels like the kind of player that they just don't have, which is the role player, microwave scorer who can operate out of the pick and roll, get to the rim, make a lot of threes. And yeah, he gives it back on defense a little bit. Like, you've already seen teams go at him pretty heavily because there's nowhere else to go at against the Thunder and he's undersized. But it just feels like a different kind of tool than they've had in a. Like it's. Isaiah Jones is more shooter than score. I don't. I just like the bet that they've made of like, let's just throw this tool into the toolbox and see if we can use it well.
- [12:09]
B
Especially because it's such. It's like a more conservative version of the sorts of bigger swings a lot of us have been hoping like, oh, would they trade for a Trey Murphy? Would they trade for a really explosive perimeter score to, to supplement these guys? Jared McCain is the bite sized version of that. And I, I think the defensive issues would be pretty glaring on any team that's not the Thunder and they are uniquely suited to kind of compensate for everything he can't do. But at the same time, you're right, like, they just need a little bit of explosion because all of their burst for the most part comes from what their defense is able to generate. And he, he is one of the few guys on this team that can not only create a Little bit off the dribble for himself, but is actively looking for his own shot in a way that doesn't feel disruptive. It feels additive to what they're trying to accomplish.
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A
I think there's going to be a playoff game where they throw him in in the second quarter and he has 12 points in three minutes. And people are like, how did they get this guy? Like this guy's doing this again. So the sub question to this was if they are more, more vulnerable and we both agree they are a little bit more vulnerable. Who is their most dangerous threat? And you can go west or east. I assume it will be a west team. But who are you most worried about if you're a Thunder fan?
- [13:16]
B
Well, let's start west and then maybe we can zoom out a little bit because I think the, the list for me is number one, the healthy Nuggets and I don't know if that's a real team or not. Number two, the Wolves on a good day. And number three, I think would be, if you want to zoom out the Pistons, number four. I mean, I'm actually within the west. Might be the spurs at this point, might be the team I'm most confident in. Besides those two.
- [13:42]
A
I think the West, I think here's where I am. I think there are only four teams who can win the Western Conference right now that I can take seriously. Like you could make the Finals. Oklahoma City, Denver, San Antonio and Minnesota. I don't see it with Houston. And if this KD Burner thing is real, God help us all. And I don't see it with the Lakers. And nobody else is in the conversation.
- [14:06]
B
No.
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A
And my answer, the answer should be Denver. To your point about who the Thunder should be most worried about, it's starting to get notable that Denver is 24th in defense. This isn't like the Denver team that's number one in offense, number 14 on defense. And that nets out is enough to win the championship. 24th is a little bit of a problem. And then when you look at their like, oh, they must be getting roasted on threes. No, they're not. They're. They're allowing like a pretty decent percentage on three point shots. They're getting roasted at the rim, which is kind of endemic to who they are. And the healthy version of the Nuggets cements itself on defense to me because they have all of these guys who are good at some parts of defense and not as good at others or good at certain kind of matchups and not as useful in others. And they kind of need them all to navigate three playoff rounds. So Aaron Gordon, I've called his legs the biggest X factor in the league. His hamstring issues, calf issues, whatever they are like they just, they have and you want to say, well they have Peyton Watson, he's emerged as a stopper who can score one on one and all this and shoot threes. He leans more towards he guards. He defends like down in the positional spectrum. Like he defends quick guards better than he defends big giant wings. That's Aaron Gordon's job. And Aaron Gordon is better at that than defending quick guards. Christian Brown has been out of the lineup most of the season. He's their go to sort of guard stopper. He's got some issues getting around screens now and then. Like they're the kind of team that the sum of the parts is really what, what has to drive their defense. And I think it's okay to start being worried about like are we ever going to like offensively they're the best offense in the NBA. They have the best offensive player in the NBA. All of that nails it doesn't even matter who plays as long as Murray and Jokic play. And their offense, their turnovers since Jokic come back has come back have been hurting their defense stat figures to calm down. But I don't know man. Like if, if I'm, if I'm, if if this is just what they are defensively, I'm, I'm starting to get a little anxious about the Nuggets.
- [16:12]
B
I think it's weirdly to the Thunder's credit and to the Nuggets like to in. In terms of criticizing the Nuggets that as these guys have been out of the lineup, Aaron Gordon and Christian Brown for long stretches especially, it feels like they just kind of punted on a lot of defensive possessions. And I say that looking at in part their best players like Nicole Jokic is not putting forth elite defensive effort on an every night regular season basis when he's been healthy. Absolutely not.
- [16:37]
A
He understand and like you, he, you can see his mind just say it's a two. It's like, like it's just a two. We'll get it back. Like it, you know, it's just how his mind is. He's, he's it. But the effort just hasn't been there all the time.
- [16:51]
B
No it, it's been like. And we usually use this term to like talk about rim protectors going against dunkers of just like business decision, business decision over and over. Except for him. It's do I want to exert the effort that it's going to take to get this stop as opposed to I have to carry this next stretch where Jamal Murray's going to the bench and I need the energy to do that. And I feel like a lot of those like the Thunder are a team that for all the guys who have been out their defensive effort has never really been in question. They've been getting after it collectively. They just invest in that way with the Nuggets once one of those elements kind of falls out of the Jenga tower that you were talking about where everything does need to be ideal even for them to be an elite defensive team, everyone else's investment and focus kind of comes and goes and I think Aaron Gordon is the most stable and he's been the most absent. Christian Brown usually is pretty locked in though as you said, he's always kind of like playing a little bit above his head as a go to stopper and so everyone else is just like I guess we're going to be an offense first team for the most part or we're going to be like a Jamal Murray and a bunch of role players when everyone has been out and try to make ends meet. But they've never had that stretch this season where they've like all bought in at the same time in part because they've basically never been healthy at the same time like Zach, you and I on this pod might log more minutes together then the Nuggets like starters have basically all season in total. So it's just hard to know what they're going to be when they haven't really shown us on a regular basis what they're willing to do.
- [18:13]
A
I like that someone needs to start a stat for like the Zach Low show lineup combinations, two man pairings plus minuses and so so that's Denver. Minnesota has been my sleeper title contender all year and all that said I think their path to making the finals has to include Oklahoma City getting eliminated before they face the Timberwolves. And so it's a brackets raking right because as much as I like Minnesota, they have a they have an alpha who can go toe to toe with anybody in the league. We know we know what the Wolves are. I love the IO edition. I think he's absolutely perfect for their team. I just don't trust their offense enough to win four games against the healthy Thunder and the turnover for shoe machine that the Thunder are now if you tell me the bracket breaks right and the spurs eliminate the Thunder in the second round and it's Wolves spurs and I could see the Wolves making the finals. I just don't know that they can beat the Thunder though they have played them well, most notably in Minnesota. They blew them out recently. Tons of injuries to the Thunder. I just can't. I think it would be a great series. I think there is some chance Minnesota wins it, but I would not pick them. And that leaves the spurs who have sort of famously gone 4 and 1 against the Thunder this season. Now the last of those victories the Thunder didn't have Shea and Chad. So just throw it out say three and one in games where everybody was trying to. But it was like a notable like the combination of Wemby and all of these dynamic ball handling guards to deal with the pressure of the Thunders defense seems to be a real thing that gives the Thunder some problems. You don't want to overreact to a small sample size but that meant something to me. And yet the spurs are also very young. They're. They're relying on a first year guy and a second year guy to do a lot. They've sort of run into this like the Harrison Barnes magic has run out a little bit and they've brought him off the bench recently and so are they didn't do anything at the trade deadline significant. So are they like one guy short? So I don't, I don't feel great right now picking any of these teams to beat the Thunder in a playoff series with Denver being like if we ever see the healthy version like let's, let's, let's go and see that series.
- [20:15]
B
Right. I think we would all love that. If it comes down to it with the spurs, not only are they one guy short maybe, but even just one year short I think if, if we had we, if we had seen Harper and Castle in particular go through the process, take their lumps, get kind of like the natural evolution that comes from playoff scheming. I would feel a lot more confident about where they are I think. But what I'm worried about most is if they get into a series with the Thunder despite all of that matchup success that they've had and what we've seen in the regular season that's kind of like the first look is what they've seen so far. And when you get into the evolving stakes and matchups and strategy of the playoffs, the you're now asking incredibly young inexperienced players to make real time reads in which if you're not on top of it for this like four minute stretch that could Be the whole game right there. Like, if your decision making is not that sharp against the best defense in the world, your team is going to lose and you're going to go home and you're going to have a long summer. And I think one more year of seasoning for those guys might do a world of difference. But for now, I just am going to need to see it because young, young playmakers and young guards are almost never ready for this kind of matchup.
- [21:21]
A
Look, I would pick the Thunder over the spurs in a playoff series, despite the matchup issues that I think are very real, that San Antonio brings to the table for all the reasons you just said. Like, I'll, I'll flat out say it right now. Healthy Thunder, healthy Spurs. I'll probably go like 4, 2, thunder, thunder and 6. But there is a world in which the spurs steal Game 1 in Oklahoma City, and it looks just like the cup game, and it looks like the game that came after the cup game. And there's like a. Oh, vibe around the Thunder and the whole thing changes in one game, but that's where I land. Okay, big question number two. Because you said you wanted to zoom out a little bit, we'll just make this. Big question number two. I worded it like this. Is Detroit really ready for this? By which I mean they have the best record in the NBA. They have the second best net rating in the NBA. They are 10th in offense and second on defense. And every big picture indicator that you can choose, road record, top notch road wins, point differential, all of it suggests, yes, they are ready for this. This profile is as a legitimate championship contender, a legitimate favorite to make the NBA Finals, and yet we don't really talk about them quite that way, and they're not perceived quite that way. So I will just put it, put it. You can interpret the question any way you want. I mean it. Like, are they ready to, to actually make an honest run at winning the championship?
- [22:41]
B
Yeah, I think if we're, if we're at the point now where you really have to bend over backwards to explain why they are not in the mix, really competing and contending for the title, why are we straining ourselves to do it? Like, why are we trying to work around all of the data and evidence, especially when to look at the east more broadly. It's not like there's been a super convincing alternative. And I think this conversation might go very differently if you were really bought in on the Knicks or if you were had absolutely no questions about the Cavs with James Harden or kind of whatever, you know, whatever team you want to put forward. But the Pistons have not just the big data that you were talking about, all the anecdotal evidence of this season. They also just have the underlying formula of this is an all NBA level star at the center of a great defense. And we live in a world now where we just watched the Thunder win the like win the title without being a precision machine. Right? They, they won by being overwhelming on defense with good effort, with good balance, with enough role players in the right moments and with Shay. Why couldn't that more or less be the model for the Pistons to at least get to the Finals if not compete for it outright?
- [23:44]
A
I think the answer is mostly yes. I just at some point the indicators are what they are and this team is what the numbers say they are. I just think the offense is going to be very interesting to watch in the playoffs. Definitely a Sar Thompson, I've said this, he's one of my wild card players for the rest of the season. Plus Jalen Duran. That's as much non shooting as you can probably put out there against a real playoff defense. And yes, I know that they make up for their lack of shooting their 28th and three point rate and they don't shoot it all that well. I know they make up for it with offensive rebounds, cutting, forget the defense, free throws like all the stuff they do on offense to compensate for their lack of shooting.
- [24:31]
B
Even the connecting passing too. I think from both of those guys is really important.
- [24:35]
A
Not only the connecting passing but like you know, teams toy with or we're going to put our centers on a Sar Thompson and try to muck up your spacing that way. And Jalen Duran's like oh I'll just mash your poor overmatched wing and dunk on his face or get 15 offensive rebounds until you start a fight with me. And like now the three point shooting, they're also 22nd in turnover rate. That's a little bit worrisome too. But I just think they have like they are inexperienced and young but they also made the playoffs last year and felt like this is a real we played a conference finals team pretty toe to toe and lost. Like you can take something from that. But to the point about the offense like now that Herder is there, Kevin Herder, I think the last game I saw them play was actually the Brawl game. Maybe there was one after that that I saw and you could see J.B. bickerstaff figuring out like what lineup do I want to close with here? Well okay, let me put Keris in for Duncan Robinson because we need a little bit better defense. I'll be. You know what, though? Our shootings. Our shooting quotient is pretty low. Asar, you're coming out. I'm putting Danis Jenkins in to play with Cade. Like, the offense, defense choices and the turnover rate are pretty stark, like, reminders that this team is still pretty early in its stages, but I still think they can make the finals. And if you make the finals and you're this fucking tough and physical, you got a shot.
- [26:00]
B
Absolutely. I mean, their physicality is among the most disruptive forces in the entire league right now. And so I think we need to give credit to that. We need to give credit to the season they've had, obviously. But you're right to point out the offense and to really zoom in on that because it's going to make or break their season. And in particular, I think our conversation and really the broader league conversation about the Pistons would be so much different if there were just more confidence in that secondary creation for them. And I say that with acknowledgment that, like, I think Dennis Jenkins has done a great job. I think Charis Lavert has had a pretty good season. I think Asar and Jalen Duran, as we already mentioned, have done well within their capacities. For guys who don't shoot, you just want, like a little more confidence that it doesn't have to all go through Cade or all go through Cade or all go through some setup mechanism to get Herder Duncan Robinson A3. It's like it's either reliant on their go to playmaker or reliant on this, like, structure. And we know that in the playoffs structures break down. Like, the system doesn't always work. The scheme, the plays. Like, you need more ability to improvise. And you're asking a lot of Dennis Jenkins if he's kind of like the second best guy on the team in that particular regard. So I think I would. I would just be locked in if that were even a little bit more confident at this stage. But even with things are being what they are, I just think this is a Finals team. I just think that this is the best team in the East, Not a stretch to say, given their record and success so far. I just feel. I feel more confident overall with what they present than everything about the Knicks up and down season, than even the best version of the Cavs, potentially. This just feels like a group that, yes, is young, but is proven enough to kind of earn the benefit of the doubt.
- [27:35]
A
They're, they're, they're not afraid. And the turnovers is an interesting one because if you remember their turnover rate in the playoffs against the Knicks last year was very bad. And you remember that game one, they could have won in Madison Square Garden and they coughed up just ghastly turnover after. I think they had 21 turnovers in that game and like they had a stretch of like seven and two minutes that kind of cost them the game. There's going to be moments where it gets a little hot and a little pressurized and it's going to test their ability to take care of the ball. And the other thing I'm just endlessly curious about are teams going to dare Cade to shoot threes on the pick and roll and he's shooting 33% on threes. Shooting actually better on pull up threes than catch and shoot threes this year, which is weird. And it was the opposite last year. The Knicks did this a little bit in the first round last year and he didn't really want to shoot threes. I just wonder if that's a card that some team is going to play and be like, go ahead, we're not going to let you get into the lane now. He's, he and the Pistons collectively are big enough and strong enough to make mincemeat out of that strategy on some possessions. But I just think it's a card we're going to see going to the rest of the East. Oh, by the way, Thunder Pistons, February 25th, that's in eight days. Mark your calendars. Zach Low show will be the day after that. We'll be talking about that game. The rest of the East, I think just like in the West, I think there are only four teams that I can take seriously as you can actually win the east and you name them, you named three of them. I think it's Detroit, Cleveland, New York and Boston to me is earned the right to be in that conversation. Before I ask you about Boston and those teams, if we would extend this discussion to a fifth team to take seriously to get out of the East?
- [29:16]
B
Yeah.
- [29:18]
A
Are we at the point where we're ready to say it's Charlotte? Is Charlotte the fifth best team in the East? I mean, look, here's, here's my, here's my case.
- [29:27]
B
Let's hear the case.
- [29:28]
A
They're 26 and 29. I get it. Here are the teams above them. Toronto, Great story. I don't really trust them. And their record against good teams is not very good. Philadelphia, like Embiid is, is hurt or hurting again. And we like young players all that like fine. Like I. They're. These teams are better than Charlotte for the season. Do I trust him or I don't know. Orlando, we're going to get to Miami. Whatever. They're two games ahead of the Hornets. Like I think, I think you could. Like I'm not saying the Hornets are going to win a playoff series or win two playoff series. I'm just saying like those are the four teams that I can take seriously to win the east to actually win three playoff series. I'm just saying that's all. Do you think I'm being a little ridiculous?
- [30:11]
B
See, I thought I was driving the Hornets train. Like I thought I was up front steering deciding what where we're going on these tracks. But I see us hurtling toward a bridge and you're shoveling coal into the engine and I'm ready to bail.
- [30:23]
A
I'm going to be Hornets Sixers. You're just no brainer picking the Sixers to win a seven game playoff series over the Hornets.
- [30:29]
B
Absolutely not. Look, I do think they can win a series. I do think they can be competitive. I think they're certainly going to have my favorite series. Whatever.
- [30:36]
A
Raptors, Hornets. Jakob Bertle is going to limp out there with his bad back and shut down the Hornets.
- [30:41]
B
But we're talking about who would the fifth team to be to win the title. Right? Like what is the tie in their success? Sorry. To win the East. I think, I think the next best team to win the east is still Philly. Just because the upside like the of what they can be. I'm sorry. I'm sorry.
- [30:56]
A
Fine. By the way, I still. I've even reached out to the Hornets. I'm about to start a business. Rob. I've reached out to the Hornets and I said why are you guys not producing branded Musa diabate antlers? Every kid at a Hornets game would get the diabate antlers and actually texted their PR guy and said if you don't do it I'm going to beat you to the punch and and be the first, the first business out there with with the moose antlers.
- [31:23]
B
The great market inefficiency in the NBA is the moose's loose related merchandise. You know like we again billion dollar idea. I think there's a lot to be made for all of us.
- [31:32]
A
I'm here to announce my retirement from podcasting in order to enter stupid merchandise business to get my dort my dort license plate back there out out and about in Oklahoma City. Okay, Boston.
- [31:43]
C
What.
- [31:43]
A
Where are you on the Celtics and the Tatum return potential? What does that do for their team?
- [31:49]
B
Yeah, where. Where are we in the documentary cycle of the Jayson Tatum return? What. What do we know? When do we know it? What do we think?
- [31:57]
A
I mean, if you're practic, like, leave aside the change of schedule that lit everyone up and the. I guess NBC has just been filming him continuously for a while. Like, if you're practicing real basketball and it's February 17th, I'm pretty confident you're going to come back this year. He's not going to be Jason Tatum. Fans need to get ready for that. Like, everyone wants to jump forward to the Whose team is it? How is this going to affect the Jalen Brown centric ecosystem and the style of play? Don't jump. Like, the first step is he's going to be limited compared to what he used to be. Maybe that makes the transition a little bit easier in some senses. But I have just been on the board of like, I think he's coming back and I just think there's no downside to him coming back. Like, I don't. I, I'm not. I, I think again, the Celtics are kind of like the Pistons where as. As uncomfortable as it feels to say, like, this is very confusing. How did they become this good with a totally untested front line, pre Vuchevic trade and all of this? And they've been healthy all season. The evidence suggests they could win three playoff series in the east as is. I do think Tatum nudges their margin for error up and their ceiling up a little bit to the point that I would take them a little bit more seriously as a Finals team. I don't see him as being any kind of disruptive force, but I do expect him at this point just because he's practicing to come back.
- [33:22]
B
I think that's a reasonable expectation. And I think keeping what we expect from Tatum reasonable is key for all parties involved. You're right. He's not going to be who he was. But what he gives them is not just the kind of upward mobility that we were talking about the Sixers of. Like, how does it improve your high end? I think it makes a lot of the decision making that we were just going through with the Pistons a lot easier. Where the guys in your lineup who you would have to be making concessions for, who are like defense first stoppers, for example, or more limited, like, you know, Jordan Walsh types. Now all of a sudden you have someone who, even if it's only for 20 minutes a game can be a dedicated, good, versatile defender. You don't want to overtax him, you don't want to have him guarding fives on a full time basis or some crazy shit like that. But there's a lot of ways that Jayson Tatum can be a supplementary facilitating player for the Celtics and still dramatically improve their ceiling as a team. And so like, that's the part of it that, that's exciting to me because as it stands, they're top 10 on both sides of the ball. The offense is exactly as great as you laid out. There's still an element of like, this is a great regular season. Magical story to what they've done for their current form. And Tatum changes their current form in a really significant way. And so they are a team that I think needs some of that kind of shift. I think if they just rolled into the playoffs as is, they would be good and competitive and probably losing six games to some really good Eastern Conference team. But with Jason Tatum, I don't know why they couldn't go to the Eastern Conference finals. I don't know why we couldn't kind of shrug and just. That would ultimately be their fate. They. They had that potential in them certainly.
- [34:52]
A
I think they could go to the Eastern Conference finals now as is with no Tatum, because I mean it's East. Someone has to make the conference finals. Two teams actually by rule have to make the conference finals in the East. Cleveland. I've talked a lot about Harden's fit. I don't want to overdo it. He's been really good. The fit's been really good. They're an extremely dangerous team if you want to argue. They're now the favorites in the east because of their track record prior to this season as a 60 plus win team. I mean like I can't quite go there yet, but I can, I can get with like they can win the east, sure. The Knicks. I just can't figure out the Knicks, man. I just like I picked the Knicks to make the finals before the season. I'm sticking with it because I don't believe in changing picks willy nilly. But there has not been. Even when they go 9 and 1 in a 10 game stretch, they're 8 and 2 in their last 10 games. Right now after hitting rock bottom against the Mavs in that disaster at msg, I just, I haven't. There's something about them that makes me feel unconfident in them at all times. And it's not that they're not A mentally tough team. It's not that they can't handle adversity, it's just that they can't seem to sustain a coherent. They're coherent at the highest level on both ends of the floor for very long. Even within games. If it's like it feels like they should be winning by this game, by more. Why is this close in the fourth quarter? Obviously, everyone will want to focus on their defense. They're 11th in defense. That's objectively good enough. Even their defensive rating with Brunson and Towns both on the floor is about the same as their overall defensive rating. Good enough. They have since January 1st. I looked this up today. They are, they have allowed the ninth fewest shots at the rim since January 1, which is a big, big change for them because for a while they were like, bottom three in shots at the rim, bottom three and threes, which is allowed, which is like, you just can't win that way. And they've stressed like, we're going to pack the paint and try to try to fly out at shooters and if we surrender some threes, so be it. And they've done pretty well at that, by the way. Boston, also an elite team at just. We're going to wall off the paint and fly around to try to disrupt threes as best we can. They are, they are the masters of the. A driver gets into the paint, someone else takes him. The driver's defender peels out to the perimeter to take the three point shooter that that other defender just left. Like, the Boston is a very sophisticated team. But I don't know, man, like, what's your, what's your give me your Knicks, like, confidence level to help. Help me out.
- [37:26]
B
Well, at the risk of blowing up your outline, you wanted to talk about the most confusing teams in the league so far. That's next.
- [37:33]
A
If you want to jump. If you want to jump there, that's not next. But if you want to jump most confusing team. Let's do it.
- [37:37]
B
Let's do it. Because for me it's absolutely the Knicks and I think, I think you've made the case pretty convincingly. But it's just like, I don't know what to. Of the stretches where they've been fine, the stretches where they seem to hate playing together and the stretch of this, like, they've just won 10 of 12 as literally the best offense and best defense in the league. So should we believe the most recent sample and think that, like, they have turned a corner and this is the team they are now? They're going to be just like through and through, out and out, elite the rest of the way. I don't think that there's a track record to suggest that we should buy into that wholeheartedly. I think if we wait 10 days, once the basketball starts up again, they could be a totally different team. And their lack of confidence in who they are, I think fuels our lack of confidence in who they are. They seem to not always understand how to play together. They seem like they're going through existential crises within the season all the time. And I have to say, welcome to the team. Victor Webanyama, who now has the core Knicks experience of being exasperated at a Carl Anthony Towns closeout that maybe kind of blows a game for you. So the ranks are growing by the day in terms of people who don't understand the Knicks whole deal. It's just impossible to know what is real with this group.
- [38:47]
A
They're 35 and 23rd best point differential in the East, a very strong plus six per game. Definitely added Alvarado at the deadline, which is big with McBride out. And obviously they could play all those guys. I mean they're, they're a really good team. I it just, there's just something about them that leaves me wanting a little bit. But again, like their upside is as high as anyone in the east and they have a killer closer in Brunson who just gets wherever he wants to.
- [39:15]
B
Go on the Alvarado front. Like, do you think if, you know, if and when Deuce comes back, yes, they can play all those guys together. But like Landry Shammit is also low key, an important part of this team. Now can they play, can they play Brunson and Shamet and Deuce and Alvarado in a playoff rotation and not suffer for the lack of size?
- [39:34]
A
Well, and Shamet has been starting. OG Anunoby has missed a few games recently. So yeah, he's cemented himself as a core part of the team. I've said this before, like, they do lean a little heavily towards small guards on their bench rotations like Mitchell Robinson and a bunch of small guards like throw in Clarkson if you want. I realize Dioara has played a lot recently. I don't really see him as part of their postseason rotation. It's just a strange, it's a strange team. They clearly have flirted with the idea of upending their entire team in pursuit of Giannis. Oh, by the way, in another interview, overall star, I guess. Are we mandated to talk about this? Said. Said some version of I'm committed to The Bucks as of today. But I really want to win. Like, I actually kind of respect it. Like, he's saying he's frustrated because he's saying something that he thinks should be very easy to understand, which is I want two things. I want to compete for championships and I want to do it in Milwaukee right now. Those two things are incompatible and I don't quite know what to do about that. And I guess I've just. I haven't been traded. I have not gone in and said, get me the hell out of here directly yet. I don't know what my agent's been doing behind closed doors, whatever. But now there's another summer where Milwaukee can either get a high draft pick or go get it, do something else. They have more picks to trade. I don't. Are we mandated? But the Knicks have clearly felt about their team not rock solid enough to just say we're out on all star pursuits.
- [41:06]
B
And why would they like, what evidence would be in the. In their play this season to say, you simply can't touch this group. I think this is a team that is like, classic good enough for now, right? Like they are good enough to kind of roll it out and see how you do, see if you can find it in the flow this season and make something happen. And I just want to throw my hands and acknowledge we've seen the Knicks do that before. We've seen them have weird, messy, regular seasons with this group and roll into playoffs and all of a sudden they just like tap into something that is beyond explanation. So I'm not ruling out the possibility they.
- [41:38]
A
They legit were beating the Celtics last year before Tatum told the game like it was a legit. Now they were. The first two games were very weird in Boston where the Celtics just could not stop chucking threes despite having a huge lead in. The Knicks just walked them back. And Bridges made the two crazy, clutch defensive plays in Games 1 and 2, but they legit were winning that series. And who knows what happens if the Tyrese Miracle game doesn't happen. The Aaron D. Smith just lost consciousness for like 15 straight minutes.
- [42:06]
B
They got out miracled ultimately. But I think that's where we're landing with this Knicks team is like they're going to need a level of magic that they have not shown that they have. And anything that happens in the playoffs to me will not be representative of who they were over 82. Maybe it'll be representative of who they are over the last like 25 games of the season, 30 games of the season. But they just shift under your feet so many times it's hard to ever know where you stand with them.
- [42:29]
A
My most confusing team. We're going way out of the playoff picture for this, so let's do it. I'll be quick. I just like, what is New Orleans trying to do? I don't, I just, like, I watched them play and I don't even know like, what, what is their identity now. Like, I understand that they're, they're just bad and they don't control their pick and that's also bad. And they drafted these two rookies, but I watched them, I'm like, they're, they're now start starting this lineup with no point guard. Even when Alvarado was still on the team, they decided, we're not bringing, we're not playing with fears in the starting lineup. We're going to bring him off the bench and start Bay Herb Jones, who by the way, when do we start talking about how Herb Jones like never plays? When does he get into the category of guys who just don't play very much? But anyway, Bay, Herb, Trig, Zion, Queen and I watched that lineup play and it's like, all right, I guess on this possession we're going to have Queen operate on the high post, which we like, and Zion's going to be just like floating around the baseline, not really doing very much. And now it's going to be Zion's possession to post up or isolate. And Derrick Queen's going to be over there not doing very much. And Trey Murphy III has been outstanding on offense. It could pair well with both of them. But the offensive rating of the team with those three guys on the floor is not very good. As good as that. The respective two man games, particularly the Murphy Queen two man game can look. It just feels like they're caught between eras and identities and really that Zion is, is the sort of thing that's anchoring them to something like, all right, this guy was the guy. Like, he still can be the guy sometimes, but we also kind of want to move on to this kind of system. And it just, I watched them play, I'm like, what, man, they just need to get through this goddamn season.
- [44:10]
B
Yeah, I mean it feels like their motivations, and this happens with a lot of teams that as you said, are kind of out their own pick and don't have the natural drive to just be as bad as possible. But the motivations are like collapsing on themselves. There's a singularity of the different versions of the Pelicans you described, but Also, like any internal logic as far as, like, who or what should be playing and when, I think the fears element really encapsulates that. Where, yes, he's playing, it's not like he's gone to the bench and disappeared from the rotation, but it's like the most important thing you can do between now and the end of the season is figure out to what extent and how Derek Queen and Jeremiah Fierce will play off of each other going forward, what they can do for each other on the court. And you may have, like, an idea of what that is. And we've seen some of it over the course of the season. It's been messy, as it would be between any two players their age. Like, why is that not the primary motivating factor for a team that is clearly not making the playoffs? That is, like, just zero chance of being competitive. So why are we pretending we're about anything else even if we don't have our own pick? It doesn't track at all.
- [45:10]
A
There's also just like, a really preposterous amount of Sadiq Bay going on. And I like Sadiq Bay, and he's been very good for them. And he's been good. He's been a good buy low trade candidate for them. There's just a lot going to. The lack of a point guard and the lack of just like a consistent fulcrum from possession to possession. There's been a lot of like, all right, I guess Sadiq's gonna ISO again. Like, okay, man, have at it. I don't really understand what the point of this is, even if it works now and then, but it's not been great. Okay?
- [45:37]
B
It's not. Well, the Jordan Pool part of this, I. I think is also interesting because he no longer plays for the new world.
- [45:43]
A
There's. There's a Jordan Pool part of this.
- [45:45]
B
Well, but this is where they're caught. It's like, if they were tanking, I think Jordan Poole would legitimately be helpful in being, like, a disruptive enough force to help them lose games. But they think that in some way they're trying to win games and so they can't play Jordan pool. So it's like, even the motivations with Jordan pool feel weird somehow.
- [46:03]
A
This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. A superior beer worth playing for. It's always a fun way to spice up a little friendly competition. Like, hey, poker night, Suburban dad, loser poker night. If you don't want to throw a lot of money into the pot, maybe throw some beer into the pot. Who knows? All Star Game Is alcohol a way to motivate the players to play a little harder in the All Star Game? Maybe. I don't know. It can't hurt. Have a little beer on the bench, maybe spice things up. Who knows? You might as well at this point. And if you really want to up the ante, Michelob Ultra has a new challenge for you. And it isn't just beer on the line. You could also win tickets to some of the biggest sporting events in 2026. Enter now at michelopultra.com ultra instructor Michelob Ultra Ultra Instructor no purchase necessary. Open U.S. residence 21 or over. Begins on January 30, 2026 and ends on February 22, 2026. See official rules@michelobaltra.com rules for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. Big question number whatever. This was a tricky one, but I'm interested in your take. I said the teams within spitting distance of the sixth seed in either direction in both conferences, which is the team that falling into the play in, that falling out of or not making the top six is the biggest disaster. Rob Mahoney, your answer.
- [47:17]
B
I think it's the Houston Rockets, who are currently two games out of seventh in the west, where they would fall into the plan. As you said, I really don't understand why they didn't make some kind of move at the deadline. Like this is a team. Look, you you signed or you traded for Kevin Durant. Kevin Durant is 37 years old. You are contending now. Your window is now if you are not moving, you know, maybe not heaven and earth, but anything reasonable in an effort to make your team better and more competitive in the present tense. I don't really get what the point of all that was and for KD to have the kind of season he's having where it's been a 26 a game on 50, 40, 88 shooting. He has played 50 out of 52 games. And it feels like you're just kind of taking all that for granted, that you're going to roll over into next season and this version of Kevin Durant is just going to continue to be there. And maybe it will, but someday you're going to be wrong. And so why are you investing in this team in this form with Kevin Durant as the best player on it if you're not willing to at least trade for like an IO Dasumnu type?
- [48:20]
A
Yeah, I mean, they certainly have all the assets to do it. You know, Bill and I have talked about how Adam's season ending injury is a huge deal because it just, it, it pierces their core identity which is we're just going to beat the hell out of you on the glass. And they still do that. They're still the best rebounding team in the NBA but there's a difference between the best by a little bit. And so some nights the rebounding battle is close to even and your whole sort of identity fall away and being the best by so much that you're guaranteed to win the rebounding battle in a significant way every night. And that's Stephen Adams. Their other issue was like Van Vliet has a de facto no trade clause and he's injured. Yep, that's a $25 million salary that's tough to trade. Finnie Smith is on a three year deal and has done nothing for them. That's a 12. That's a 12 and a half million dollar salary that's tough to trade everyone else. I mean you could move like capella makes 7 million. I'm not sure he has much value. Everyone else is kind of like unless you're ready to just say we're trading Jabari Smith Jr. Or whatever like is kind of a core part of your team. So it's not, it's not that easy. But they were on my. The candidates for this and I will go through my own were Houston and I just, I didn't pick them because I think they are going to make the top six. I hope so and just I'm not worried about it.
- [49:39]
B
And we should say part of it for them too is like because their offensive philosophy is force Kevin Durant and Alperin Shangun to gut out tough possessions and hope that as you said you can clean up enough possessions behind them to make it work. Everything is hard and so the idea of we're going to put those guys in this team through extra play in games just to try to get to the playoffs. Like anything can happen in those games. Needless to say. But also it's just more taxing in an exact way that you don't want to be more taxing on your best players if you are the Rockets.
- [50:08]
A
I considered them. I considered Minnesota, who's currently six but I have absolutely this will come by to surely come back to bite me. I have absolutely no fear that they're going to fall out of the top six. There I said it. I considered Phoenix, who's seventh but this is an all gravy season for Phoenix. I considered Toronto who's fifth in the East. It's an all gravy season for Toronto. I considered Philadelphia, who's six in the east just with all the injuries and the feel good story of Edgecomb and Maxey. It doesn't feel like a catastrophe if they fall into the play in and then I considered Milwaukee and just said I think they're too far back of the numbers succeed for this conversation or six.
- [50:45]
B
I think so.
- [50:46]
A
I landed on Orlando who is 28 and 25 with a negative point differential for the season and seventh in the east in a season in which reasonable people, not me reasonable people pick them to make the NBA Finals. I just think this is a disaster season for the Magic as it is now. And look, you can tell me, I have the stats right here. Franz and Paolo plus three per 100 possessions. They've only played in 18 games together. Franz, Paolo and Jalen Suggs plus 12 in. Plus 12 for 100 possessions. Huge number. They've only played 148 minutes in 13 games. So you can tell me, look, it's just all about availability and health and once Franz comes back and once we put him back in the starting five, who are we going to take out? I guess we'll see. Probably Anthony Black. Everything will be fine. I just. This feels like the year from hell where something big is going to happen after the season where either they're going to make a coaching change or a seismic trade away from this current core because for this team, despite all the injuries, look, when you get into the 28 and 25, 30 and 24, everybody's had injury issues. You are not alone in your injury issues derailing your season. I just think this season has been a disaster for them. They're. They're a bad offensive team. Still 19th so top 20 top 20 history is in the making by, by some measures average on defense. I just, it, it's just not working. And they have 25 games to find some gear where it clicks into place. The most has looked like it's working is when they've played three guards, Suggs, Black and Bane with one of the two forwards, Franz and Paolo and a center like that's got some verb and some juice to it. They're just not built right now for that to be their core identity. I don't know that they're. They are my pick. I feel this is like a disaster year for them having traded four picks.
- [52:44]
B
For Desmond Bain and that was to move up all of you know as you said, 19th and defense right now from you know, 25th ish last season. So not exactly A dramatic reinvention of the team. But look in my apparent like resting of this podcast out from under you, this is my pick for you asked for the coach that we're going to be scrutinizing the most for the rest of the season.
- [53:05]
A
Mine too. We had. I knew we would agree on this one completely.
- [53:08]
B
And it's like Jamal Mosley's been the head coach of the Magic for five seasons. All five seasons they've had a bad offense and I think there's a lot of explanations that could tell you why that's been the case. They've been as hurt as you said, not just this year, but often in many of those seasons they were. They've been a young and weird team for that entirety. They haven't had in the way of shooting. I just don't think it's unreasonable to say that over a five year period you should be able to do better than eking into the top 21 time. And with all the talent on this team, with everything they have at their disposal, they should be able to get more done. And to put things in perspective this season, which as you said, has been a disaster, these are some of the teams that have better, more functional offenses than Orlando's right now. The Memphis Grizzlies, who've been trying to trade away John Morant literally all season, have had every other guard basically injured for a significant portion of the time. The Milwaukee Bucks, who Ryan Rollins has been their best player for a chunk of the season by default almost because of how much time Giannis has missed. The Portland Trailblazers, who are young and fun and have the single highest turnover rate in all of basketball right now. And the perpetually mediocre Chicago Bulls. These are teams that just like roll out and score better than the Magic do. And I don't think there's really any excuse for that anymore. And all of, all of, I say all of this to lay out like it cannot be the case that all of this is happening on offense and your defense has lost all of the edge that was supposed to define it. Like those two things cannot be happening at the same time.
- [54:33]
A
There's just no flow to the offense and there are good ideas in there and there are games where there's more flow than others. There was one game recently, I can't remember who they were playing, that they came back and won. It was a pretty rollicking game where it's like a lot of screen the screener action to get their pick and roll game innervated. Innervated Is that or is that bad?
- [54:52]
B
No, I think Innovated is good.
- [54:53]
A
Enervated. Yeah, let's go with Enervated. And we know that they're going to run inverted pick and rolls with Paolo and Suggs is a good screener and split actions with Paolo and Franz. And they have good ideas, but they very often have one good idea. And if it doesn't work, they don't seem to have a second good idea or a third good idea or a governing system which organically produces good ideas and good options. And at some point you just are what you are. This is a bad offensive team. It's been a bad offensive team for a long time. And I just think, are they. Are they the single most disappointing team in the league this year? It's hard to rest that title from the Clippers, despite the fact that the Clippers, by the way, are now sniffing them in point differential for the season. But look at that, they're up there.
- [55:39]
B
Also, I have bad news. Innovated is apparently a bad thing. So they have been innervated or we've been innervated by the Magic, however you want to define that. But. But I ultimately, like, you're right. The offense is what it is. It's already cooked. I'm not expecting the beautiful game spurs to suddenly emerge from the Magic out like outside this All Star break. That's not going to happen. But like, can they find some of who they used to be? Can they find some of the intensity they used to play with on defense? Can they force turnovers the way that we've seen this team force turnovers before? I just want like a little bit of that. And I think even that would go a long way, not just in terms of like Jamal Mosley's job security and protecting the future of the team, but like playing out the rest of this way with like some kind of dignity after they have just completely lost every semblance of who they. Who they were and were aiming to be as a team?
- [56:28]
A
It seemed like my last question, big question, was your most intriguing player for the rest of the season? I'll spoil my answers are Franz Wagner for this very reason and we don't need to elaborate on it. And Scoot Henderson, who I'm about to talk about with Kyle Mann, who was yours?
- [56:43]
B
Julius Randle. Just because let's like triple down on the Wolves talk today. I think this is like kind of bundled together with the Wolves as an intriguing but sometimes frustrating team and one that also is like kind of hard to put your Finger on. But if Denver's injuries continue to be a problem, I'm with you. That like, they are a very convincing Western Conference challenger. And I think the best version of the team relies very heavily on Julius Randle having his head screwed on just so. And we have seen over the last month or two, it's not always the case and I feel like it's gotten weirdly wobbly and rickety. I say weirdly as if this doesn't happen with Julius Randle in many seasons. But we are at the point in the season where his defensive focus is like just not there and to sometimes catastrophic results in terms of what he means to this team. Because it's been made very clear. Julius Randall is like one of the primary stakeholders in the Wolves at this point. Like, he's not going to get the Rudy Gobert, we're pulling you out of the rotation for this, like bad matchup he's going to play and the minutes he plays are critical. And his ability to execute like, even again, like basic fundamental rotations defensively and just be locked in, in the way that you would want a good player on your team that's contending for a title to be locked in that apparently we can't take for granted at every point in the season. And so he's someone that I'm like watching game to game now wondering, is this the like, world beating I'm schooling LeBron in the playoffs, I am blowing things up defensively version of Julius Randle that we've seen in the past? Or is this the guy who's like kind of sulking and his body language isn't always the best and he's not giving you, not just in like the non Gobert minutes, what you need defensively, but even in the minutes where he has all the help in the world, not giving you what you need defensively. And I say all this to point out, like, if he is that guy, the Wolves are a tremendously formidable team. Like, they are a really tough out for anybody and frankly could beat anyone outside of the Thunder, as we said, which I think, I think are just like not the best matchup for them in terms of the precision. Yeah, like, they're just, they're just too chaotic, I think, for that matchup. But anyone else I think the Wolves can beat and Julius Randall is a huge part of it. And if he carries himself that way on an every game basis, I think he's going to show everyone why that's true.
- [58:53]
A
I've had, I've had a cabin on Top of Julius Randall Hill for a long time now. There was a time when it was. I was almost alone and just a few of us were foraging for food, trying to make fire with sticks and now we're thriving. I think he'll be fine. I understand the concerns. Yeah, I think he's going to be there when it matters. Engaged enough in the ways you're talking about when it matters. I hope I will say one of the little wild card effects of them acquiring IO is Chris Finch will do it once in a while. They're not built to do it, but I always like the look of it when they go with one of the the three bigs. And so now with another like pretty solid guard you can throw IO Divincenzo and McDaniels at the 4 and 1 big and just see how that looks in some matchups. I get that you're paying Randall Reed and Gobert a gargantuan amount of money combined. They're all. Two of them are all stars in the in the recent past. One of them is a six man of the year. They're all highly accomplished. They all have to play. I like, I've always liked having that look as an alternate in their back pocket and they have never been more well positioned to do it than they are now with IO there. I want to have one quick tanking conversation with you. Can we do that?
- [60:11]
B
Let's do it.
- [60:14]
A
Because this is going to be the defining issue of the league big picture in the next six months. I think the rules are going to look different by the 2028 draft at the latest and they could look dramatically different. I'm not sure what exactly will happen. Passing any big, big change through the super majority of ownership that needs let alone the players unit is going to be hard. But I want to. I want you to just have a thought experiment with me.
- [60:39]
B
Okay?
- [60:40]
A
Okay. Let's posit a couple of. Let's posit number one, there will always be a draft. Let's just posit that. That abolishing the draft, despite how much you like the idea is not on the table. The small market teams will never vote for it. Let's so let's just posit that there will always be a draft. Let's also posit that there will always be bad teams in the NBA that no matter what mechanisms you pull to try to squeeze teams toward the middle, there are always going to be bad teams that need help. Let's posit a third thing which is, and I'm not convinced this is as true as it used to be. But let's just say it because this is what all the small market teams will say. This is what all the small market teams said when lottery reform was initially on the table and the Thunder rebellion occurred and all the spurs tree people voted with them that small markets do not have access the same access to superstars via free agency or trades, AKA pre agency and they need the draft as a tool to get superstars. Whether the draft is an effective tool to get them superstars is another story. But let's posit all those things. And so all of that said, I will just put it to you like this. How do you feel about a draft existing where the draft order is not tied at all to team record? Where it is either. And it's not going to be tied to team record from best to worst either. It's going to be some not randomized but wheel like system where teams cycle through the picks and you sever the connection between record and draft order altogether. I don't think that's going to happen. I think it's more likely that a bunch of fairly dramatic tweaks to the current lottery system happen. All of those tweaks, by the way, could amount to at least weakening the connection between team record and draft order. Is that, is that good? Is that dangerous for teams who need to sell hope, for small market teams who need to sell hope? Like how do you feel about that kind of principle?
- [62:45]
B
I'm not just open to it. Like I think this needs to be the direction, whether subtle or dramatic, that the league is moving towards. And I'm to be, to be clear, I'm pretty like, I'm pretty receptive to a totally random. Let's just like everyone has flat, flat lottery odds every single year. We're just going to roll the dice and be completely random in the draft order every time out, independent of winning and losing. Because I think the formula as it exists now, like the only things that are guiding rebuilding decision making are incentive and shame. And the incentive right now is you lose as long as you possibly can. If you're a general manager, as long as your owner will let you, if you're an owner, as long as you basically can go through the process and it's not even a financial issue in a lot of cases for owners now because they like will receive some ev. Like some portion of the revenue sharing, ultimately they can like field cheaper rosters. I think it's mostly like, do you want to be embarrassed by your team for five or six years straight as you Try to tank your way into not just the first guy you need, but then the second, second star you need to supplement them, to compliment them. Because if you move on after getting a Cade Cunningham too fast or a Luka Doncic too fast, or whatever example you want to look at, we've seen how complicated that has become for a lot of teams. And so if we can take out the drafting element from losing and just like fully separate these things within the ecosystem of how basketball works, I think you get a much healthier product. I, I really don't know why we want to reward, like, continued failure. And I, I almost don't care how deliberate it is. And some of it is, you can look at some of these teams that have been at the bottom of the standings year over year after year. New Orleans is a great example. We're talking about the Pelicans today. I think being in New Orleans is like a reason why the Pelicans have a hard time being the Lakers, for example. Like, it's difficult in ways that a Knicks or a Lakers or even like a smaller but glamour market like Miami, like, they're just different propositions depending on what city you operate in. But the reason the Pelicans are bad is because their ownership has not been good and because they've been mismanaged repeatedly during that time. And it gives bad ownership groups and bad management groups a lot of coverage when all you're doing is rewarding them with increasingly good draft odds or draft picks. When we could just take that off the table. Like, why? Like, what is the benefit at this point, Zach? And propping up groups that are not even deliberately being bad, but just actually being bad.
- [65:10]
A
So one path that you could take in redoing all this is the more conservative path, which is keep some connection to the reverse order draft. The bad teams pick first draft, but chip away at some of the tanking mechanisms that currently exist. So that is the protected picks reform that people are talking about. So we don't have a Utah Washington situation. Again, that's the after March 1st or whatever date, you get credit for winning instead of losing in the lottery. Because, like, when they flattened the lottery odds six, seven years ago, that was the point, to chip away at the value of just abjectly bad tanking. It was also extremely predictable that it would result in teams tanking for spots like 7, 8, 9, 10 in the lottery. So predictable that I wrote it the day that the lottery reform was passing free. SPN.com My point being that as you're doing all of those Things you are weakening the connection between record and draft order, but keeping it somewhat. And history suggests teams are going to find ways to game the system no matter where you put the lines and the incentives. So I find myself more open to at least gaming out what does it look like if there is no connection at all between record and draft order either way you do it. You could do things to de. Emphasize the importance of the draft. And I've talked a lot about this. Like you could eliminate restricted free agency so that players are more free to choose where they want to go right away in their careers. Instead of seven, eight years down the line. You could increase the rookie scale salaries for the top five picks so that if an elite team gets the first pick, they face a pretty painful decision right away in terms of can we keep all these guys together? I don't love ideas that chip away at continuity and roster continuity. I think that's a healthy thing for teams. But you can do all of those things and randomize the draft for the exact same reasons. Like you can do that. And I just. Yeah, it's just interesting to me because the small market teams will rebel against any wheel like random system. It'll be very hard to pass it. And they'll say, one of the things we have to sell to our fans is hope. And if you take this away from us, we can't sell hope on an annual basis like we can now. And we'll be trapped. It'll be harder for us to go from bad to good. And I've always felt that in my soul. And more and more I find myself wondering, do I feel it in my soul? Because that's all I've really known. Like, that's just how sports has worked in my life. And it works like that in other sports too. And I'm not. I don't know what I support, but I'm opening my brain up to what does it actually look like? Because instead of teams being trapped in badness and small market teams being disadvantaged in fatal ways, it could actually look like more teams more. It's changing the incentives forces teams to actually try to improve more diligently and in more varied ways. And it could squeeze records from the bottom up and the top down and you could get a healthier, more fun league.
- [68:16]
B
Like I'm, I'm.
- [68:17]
A
I'm open to that. I'm open to that possibility. It's just you have to be willing to live in a world where the Thunder draft Wembanyama, where the 2017 warriors draft Cooper Flack like that's going to happen.
- [68:31]
B
Yes.
- [68:32]
A
If you go this way and if you're willing to live in that world, then I think all bets are off. That makes me viscerally uncomfortable. And maybe it wouldn't happen in that kind of perfect storm sense more than once every 20 years, but it'll happen.
- [68:46]
B
I think that's the way to approach this conversation though, is first embracing the continuity of the league and what it means to you and whether that is important to sustain in and of itself. Like, is the reason to keep the draft simply because we've always had a draft or is the reason to keep it so directly tied to winning and losing because that's the way it's always been done? I would say, like the system's kind of already broken and so we shouldn't be too beholden to trying to save it when we can fix it. Like we can change this to make it better. And it doesn't just have to be disincentivizing, tanking through subtle ways. There are. There's a lot of opportunity, yes, for chaos, but there's also a lot, a lot of opportunity for change that could help the overall state and health of the league. And I'm just like not willing to throw that out with the Bathwater just because I'm a little. I'm a little concerned about Victor, Web and Yama ending up on the Thunder. And maybe, look, you can game this out as far as you want. You could even write in provisions that, you know, if you're in the final four of the playoffs, maybe by default you go to the bottom of the draft order and everything else is randomized. You know, like there are ways to account for the most dominant teams not also getting Cooper Flag. Everything else, though, should be on the table. Everything else should be up for negotiation. I. I just think whatever system that the small market general managers and owners think that they're protecting, that system also benefits the Lakers. That system also benefits every big market. When those teams decide to be bad, they can get the young players you want and then go sign the free agents. So why don't we like scrap this or at least go back to the drawing board and figure out how to make something that just makes a little more sense for everybody.
- [70:19]
A
I remember people making people within the league making that exact point to me, way back when the process Sixers went in the ditch and their point was Philly's not a tiny market team. Philly's a pretty big market with pretty rich ownership. If the big teams decide to tank, they can out tank. They can outlast the small market teams because of the financial buttressing that they have Two last things. Number one, Bill and I talked about this. I think a shorter season just has to be part of this discussion because all of these branches are tied together. You don't just change the lottery. Restricted free agency gets affected. Like a 70 game schedule, a 65 game schedule. Leave us, just leave aside the greed and the money and all of that because those are the only reasons we're clinging to that. I think even, I think everyone even knows that those are the only reasons we're clinging to that. Leave aside the wear and tear on players, travel, all of that. If a team like Utah starts a 65 game season 12 and nine, you're a third of the way through it. Your fans are not going to allow you to parachute out of a season like that. You might say, well, what happens if a good team starts 5 and 10? Are they more likely to actually pull the ripcord and tank in a shorter season? I actually think that's less common than the first version of a bad team that starts well. Good teams that are built to win are not giving up because they start 5 and 10. Look at the Clippers this year. They've saved their whole entire season. I think, I think a shorter schedule has got to be part of this discussion. And the last thing I. Go ahead.
- [71:46]
B
Sorry, no, I was going to say, I just feel like this is one of those areas where the NBA is such a unique battleground because of the length of its schedule. It's like baseball is kind of in its own world and some of that's because it has a far more elaborate prospect system that allows for exactly the kind of pedaling of hope that you're talking about where, yeah, your team sucks this year. But like, have you seen this guy that we just called up? Have you seen this pitcher, like, have. There are enough prospects coming through the system that ultimately you can sell yourself on something. But in the NFL, like tanking, even though it exists, doesn't have nearly the charge it does in the NBA. And some of that's because like three to four weeks of losing can get a lot of the work done that you need to get done versus the sustained like game after game after game of like, we're just watching like, again, with all due respect to the young players who are trying to earn their spots like Drek, that is meaningfully watering down the NBA product on a massive level. Like, the total number of games that are affected is just so Much different.
- [72:41]
A
It's literally every night. Yeah, it's almost every night. And obviously, the other thing that makes the NBA unique and uniquely susceptible to this is that one player makes so much of a difference compared to other sports. My last thing is my favorite fun proposal I've gotten from someone in the League is the NBA's version of the Papal Conclave. And I'm just gonna. I'm just gonna read it out because I think it's so good. Yeah. Step one, all 30 teams submit their first. Their full first round draft order, their proposal for how the teams should be ordered for the draft. Step two, that then there is a calculation of the average order of those teams. Put all the proposals together, average it. And so you get a draft order that is 1 to 30, the average of all the 30 proposals. Step three, there's a debate period, by the way, everyone, all the GMs and owners are trapped in a castle for this. It has to be step three. There is a debate period where teams can try to argue for or against the proposed slate. Step four, a vote is taken to approve the slate. Step five, if the slate gets greater than 50% of the votes, the chimney releases orange smoke and the GM and the owner of the number one pick emerge in a white robe. 5. Step 5B. If the slate does not get approved, black smoke comes out of the chimney and we go back to step one. I just, I like the idea of the NBA conclave.
- [74:00]
B
I love the NBA conclave. I really love the idea of not just agreeing on the draft order, but, like, the GMs and the owners in the league should have to vote on which team they think is most deserving of yourself.
- [74:11]
A
That's part of the conclave. You can't vote for yourself to get the number one pick.
- [74:14]
B
And that way it's like, I think you're voting for, like, the team that needs it the most and carried itself with the most dignity along the way.
- [74:21]
A
Like, who.
- [74:21]
B
Who would get the number one pick this year if. If we were to do this exercise?
- [74:25]
A
Oh, I don't even want to go there. And Alien Alpha more. I'm more concerned of, like, where would we do this? Cameron Indoor Stadium. Like, what, What. What has a chimney? Like a small. You can predict.
- [74:37]
B
You can build a chimney.
- [74:38]
A
You can one center and just have different beams come out, like, different colored beams. All right, Rob Mahoney, Group Chat. What else we got coming from you this week or two?
- [74:47]
B
Prestige TV podcast rolls on in the. In terms of TV coverage, but this is a basketball season. We got the pit. We got industry. We got what? Euphoria. Coming up in a couple months. Like, it's. It's an exciting time.
- [74:59]
A
You're the best. Thank you, Rob.
- [75:01]
B
Thanks, Zach.
- [75:01]
A
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- [76:21]
B
Appreciate it.
- [76:24]
A
All right, it's time for our next segment. A fun time to do this with no games going on. And Scoot Henderson. Remember Scoot Henderson? He's back. He's played four games this year. He's played pretty well for the Blazers, minus a grotesque turnover rate which we will talk about. And given his return and Brandon Miller's, I think a little bit slept on role in Hornets Mania, I thought this would be a fun time to to read to to relook at reexamine. The most heated draft debate of the 2023 draft, which started with Wemby, which was Charlotte at number two choosing between Brandon Miller and Scoot Henderson. Ultimately choosing Miller got a little flack for it. Scoot falls into Portland's lap. It was euphoria for Portland and since then we have seen Amen. Thompson was the fourth pick. Has kind of exploded Asar Thompson was the fifth pick. Anthony Black was the sixth pick. That's a pretty strong 4, 5, 6, right behind Scoot. You go down a little further, you got Casey Wallace at 10. Okay. Keonte George at 16. It's a fun time to look back at this draft with Scoot back. And although J. Kyle man, it seems that Brandon Miller has played a lot more than Scoot because of all the injuries that have befallen Scoot the hamstring this year, most of all, they have played almost the exact same number of games. Brandon Miller has played 139 games and Scoot has played 132 games. And I just thought this would be fun because like there's all this Hornets mania. The Hornets are on this incredible run. They're back into the playoffs. You could argue, you could argue they're the fifth most serious team in the Eastern Conference right now. And all the, all of the attention, a lot of the attention has been focused on the brawl, on Con Mania, on Lamelo finding his groove. And Brandon Miller is just this steady hum of productivity. And I think it's actually been the most important variable in Charlotte's ascendancy. Since December 14th, Brandon Miller is averaging 22 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, 44% shooting, 39% from deep, and he's been available. He's a good two way player already. I think he's got room to grow on both ends of the floor, but he's a good two way player already does a little bit of everything on offense, on ball, off ball screening, cutting ball handling, pick and roll stuff late in games, all of that. I just think he's, his contribution is a little bit been underrated. So this is a fun time to look back at this. It was a big deal. It was a big controversy. Remember like there was that landmark game in Vegas when Scoot and Wemby went head to head and Scoot was like, I'm here for all of this. I should be the number one pick. You were at the game. So where were you at draft time? Like, what do you remember about this debate where you were and the reaction among you and your draft gurus when Charlotte went the way they did?
- [79:12]
C
I remember this pretty vividly actually because the arc of it was interesting for me because I started out extremely skeptical of Scoot. I was nitpicking him all the way through the draft process to the point where KOC actually I remember, called me Scoot's biggest hater. And I was like, no, wait a minute. I was just kind of operating with a healthy amount of. Of doubt just to keep myself balanced and not go crazy with it and what ended up happening because I, I initially was really worried about Scoot. You know his office was basically those, you know the right and the left elbow. He loved to take those shots. He was shaky from three. I didn't really wasn't in love with the ball handling. And what happened over the course of that G league ignite season that he had was. And that game against Wimby was I started to sort of try to balance out his personality. Listen to him talk, listen watching the.
- [80:01]
A
Way irresistible, irresistible charisma.
- [80:04]
C
Yeah yeah, yeah. You know overly determined to dominate and all that odd. All that stuff that he was about. And I kind of just kind of worked myself to a position of I'm willing to make a bet on this human being is kind of where I was. The basketball stuff sort of receded a little bit and then I don't know. I've kind of over watching him over the past three years now. His first rookie season I went and looked this up. I mean he was one of the least efficient scorers for rookies who shot over 10 field goal attempts per game in the three point E. He was down in a basement you don't want to be in. I actually looked this. I know I hit you with a concept the other day. Who do you think Zach, in the history of rookies who have attempted over field 10 field goal attempts per game. Who do you think the most efficient rookie of all time is?
- [80:49]
A
Wow, you're just hit. You're just hitting me with this of all time. You want me to go through every rookie in the history of 10 field goals a game.
- [80:55]
C
There's some good ass names on this list and the one at the top, Blueback. No, it's deandre Ayton.
- [81:01]
A
Okay. I was gonna say it's gotta be a big man.
- [81:03]
C
58 and a half percent dominating baby. Dominating. Yeah. So yeah that's kind of. And I work myself and then when the draft comes, you know they. I think we were early that year in moving Brandon to. To two in that. In that class because we there was a lot to love. A lot of obvious things to love that we can get into that are continuing to work for the Hornets but with Scoot with I thought that with Lamelo based on the way that Scoop played I was kind of like I see this as a. As a balancing active ingredient for them that could be good. You know a little more, a little more sanity downhill, less flashy. Get to the rim. I thought that they would balance each other so. But ultimately I could understand why the Hornets went the way that they went and we could dive into that.
- [81:49]
A
Yeah, I mean this decision has indisputably worked out well for Charlotte. The more interesting question is how Portland is going to look back at that pick with Scoop, which was like a non debate. Like it was, it was, it was as Rob Polink would say, mana from heaven that that Scoot fell into their laps at three And Scoot has obviously had a ton of injuries. He has not benefited from Portland being sort of caught between many different directions. Like all of a sudden it's like Dame is still here and we're trying to win now we're rebuilding. Now you tore your hamstring and the team sort of reorients around Denny Abdia. And what does that mean for Scoot who is not a sort of prototypical off ball player and has had to learn a little bit in limited minutes with Denny really how to do that. But Brandon Miller, I was texting with a lot of GMs and scouts over the weekend, just going back, looking at this draft. Who did you like? What do you like? What do you see as Brandon Miller's upside? And I've come to the conclusion that I'm just higher on him. Three years into his career, if he stays healthy, he's had a lot of injury issues. He's still got his shoulder in a giant wrap and I think that actually bodes well for him. He's going to get stronger, more confident, healthier. You can see that happening now. Like I asked a bunch of people over under two and a half all star appearances for Brandon Miller under almost across the board with the argument being he's a good athlete but not a great one and doesn't have like the blow away speed and explosiveness to really get to the basket and, and puncture the paint and all that. And look, the numbers show that that's correct. He has a very low frequency of shots at the rim. Scoot Henderson is almost the opposite. Just like a lightning strike bulldozer who can get to the rim or get near the basket, can bully his way there and just misses at the rim all the time. Which we'll talk about. I don't know, man. I love what I've seen from Brandon Miller in the last two months. The rim frequency isn't good enough. The playmaking is not there and I don't expect it to be there. But I'll tell you this, it's starting to come a Little bit. He, he's, he, he sometimes is like a half a beat late on some of his reads. He telegraphs some passes, but he sees the reads and he's getting faster at them and more sophisticated at them both as a driver and as a pocket passer and as a swing passer. And he's not overdoing his on ball game like it's Lamelo and Khan are like it's. Lamelo is still the number one on ball option and they're spread around in a kind of egalitarian style. But he does enough that he can run the offense a lot. He can hunt mismatches. Now is he great at exploiting them? We can get into that. He can get Lamelo some off ball action like catch and shoot threes come off pin downs and catch and go. Like I think that's really important for Lamelo's development that he just doesn't dance all the time. I'm optimistic that the playmaking is going to get to a pretty solid secondary playmaking level. His three point shot looks good and has stabilized. And the last, the last frontier for him is just going to be a little bit of the playmaking and traffic in the paint and can he get to the basket more and you can already see him like, oh, I got a big man on a switch. Can I blow by this guy and get to the rim? I got a little guy on a switch. Can I bully him a little bit? I'm kind of skinny but I'm making my way. I'm like shoulder, shoulder, shoulder. And maybe right now it stops at like 8 to 10ft from the basket. But he's got a pretty good floater mid range game that is handy late in close games against good teams. And defensively I just think he's going to be really good. I mean, I don't know if he's ever going to be Paul George level. His off ball defense can, can weigh in a bit. Like he gets back cut now and then and loses track of his guy. But he's got all the tools. I, I don't know how many all star teams he's going to make. I don't know where I would go on over under two and a half. But I think he's going to make all star teams.
- [85:35]
C
Yeah, I would, I would imagine I'd probably go under on that. But I don't see that as like some severe indictment because I see him as a guy who floats in that tier, a very capable guy that can give you elite level scoring at times. Maybe we don't ride him, you know, we don't depend on him to be sort of the. The whatever it is, the bell cow that they say in football. I'm not. I'm not great with my football terms, but I think what's been interesting about Brandon is. And I think it's pretty un. Unquestionably. It's unquestionable at this point that he is. I would consider him a better asset than Scoot. I don't even think that's not.
- [86:08]
A
It's not close.
- [86:09]
C
Not even remotely controversial because just six, nine guys, six, eight, whatever it happens to be, who can dribble shoot and dribble pass the way that he can. That.
- [86:17]
A
The.
- [86:18]
C
One of the interesting things about Charlotte is they have become one of the more just disruptive headache migraine teams to deal with in terms of the east west of their offense. When they come into the half court, you know, you'll just see them. They run these just simple things all the time that are really, really tricky to deal with, where it's just like Miles will kind of float in front of Lamelo and kind of get his man. Get the. Get the guys above the break talking. Because Lamo will take those crazy shots then. And then just the ghost screens, man. Just some of the simple stuff that they do. Miller will just fly off of those ghost screens and he could shoot the ball so fast. You were mentioning his mechanics. I mean, they're gorgeous.
- [86:56]
A
And if you close out, pump, go, drive, make the next pass, I mean, they'll throw, they'll run stagger screens where it's Lamelo handling the ball and Khan and Miller as the screeners or Miller and Diabate. So you have a little guy and a big guy, and it's super dynamic. And there's mismatches that present themselves or teams get confused. Like, are we switching our big guy onto Lamello? No, we're going to rotate and all of a sudden there's just gaps and people are flying around. And I think what you've nailed is when you say headache inducing, it's like there's no safe place to hide a bad perimeter defender against the Hornets. Like, Lamelo is big. He's not like a bully. But if. If you put your weaker guy on Lamelo, he's just going to be in every action. Brandon Miller can play a little bit of bully ball. Khan is too dangerous. Like you. None of these guys are going to take you down into the post. The way we think about hunting your typical undersized defender, whoever that may be. But they're just going to run you through a ringer, no pun intended, of like on ball and off ball actions. And if you're not up for it, like you're going to fall behind and they're going to get a good shot. They're really hard to guard.
- [88:01]
C
Yeah. The speed and the size, the fact that they're all over 6 foot 7 and can shoot it. You know, you talk, you hear a lot of coaches talk about like actions being live in the NBA, which just like they're able to sort of overlap and catch it and be on the move and catch it, make a pass or catch it and take a shot with speed. And that's a real big headache. I think one of the things that, that having that triumvirate of guys and Miles mixes in there too, whenever he's shooting the ball well too, and makes it interesting. But having that, that cluster of guys, I think has taken some of the pressure off of Miller. Whereas initially, when he came into the league, you know, Lamello was out initially, if I'm not mistaken, he was out for a prolonged amount of time there. And everything that we were kind of pushing the lens of evaluating Miller through was how. How much access to the buffet of reeds that you alluded to, how much of that do you have access to in the pick and roll? And I think it's taken some of the pressure. We've seen some of those reps come down for him in a way that I think is beneficial because I don't think that we're ever going to see him become a guy that's just going to be granted. The NBA is sort of drifting away from that idea in general where, you know, you have four sets of eyes, five sets of eyes on him. Is he going to be able to sort of have access to all the scoring and. And twist the knobs like that? I think it served him. One of the things that's, that's interesting that I'd be curious to get your opinion on is with the Hornets, we talk about how damning they are in that sense when they get up. I don't know if you feel this way, but when I was watching them, I was like, I think when they get against more serious teams who have the personnel to sort of seamlessly switch out top. The downhill part of the Hornets is the thing that I was curious about when they drafted Miller, because I was like, these are two dudes who are pretty uphill. Khan can get. It can burrow into the paint. If you just look at the Rim frequency among their core guys is it's pretty middling to below average. They don't really get. They miss a lot of floaters. And the other stat that I thought was really interesting, Zach, was this is a team that is at the high end of frequency in the league for pick and roll, but they are in the basement in terms of efficiency. And I was going through and trying to figure out why that is, and I think that's a lot of it is they. They get in the paint, and there's a lot of these, like, stopping short runners that they don't shoot super efficiently. They're one of the least effective drive teams in the NBA. Drive to pass, things like that. Do you think that the Kobe White move, do you think that that was a move to sort of address that? Or what do you think about the Hornets in terms of their downhill? Because the east west is great. It's just getting to the paint and finishing is the kind of thing that I'm wondering about.
- [90:28]
A
Yeah, I'm looking now. They're 21st in free throw rate, too. And, like, that's always been the big bugaboo with Lamelo is he doesn't get to the rim often enough, and he's off and on. I mean, like, this is one of my borderline obsessions, watching Lamelo drive to the basket. He's off and on this year. In previous years, but especially this year, been more diligent about. It's just not his instinct to slow down with a live dribble and just prod like Chris Paul style and then go up through contact.
- [90:55]
B
He.
- [90:55]
A
He. He likes to get off of it early. He likes to shoot threes, he likes to shoot floaters. And even at the rim, he'll just overcomplicate it. Sometimes for reasons that I don't understand, he almost reminds me of, like, a less explosive Derrick Rose in that he'll have a clear layup, and all of a sudden he's, like, passing out of it or for no reason, or going up and under where it's like, dude, just. Just go up. And Miller, you know, he just doesn't get to the rim that often because I think he's still coming into his strength in his body and figuring out where his spots are. And I do think that's the sort of collective hurdle for the Hornets now. They can make up for a lot of their lack of traditional dribble, drive explosiveness or whatever with just the threat of their shooting. Like, you have to close out so hard on all of these guys, particularly Lamelo and Khan that that makes it easier for them to drive and sort of get the blender moving. And to your point about like Miller, like there just aren't a lot of guys with this kind of profile. Like I was looking at his second spectrum tracking stats. He averages 23 pick and rolls per 100 possessions as the ball handler. That's like, like pretty average ish for somebody of his ilk and his star level. And it's almost flat with his prior years. And his efficiency numbers are career highs on the pick and roll this year he averages 17 pick and rolls per 100 possessions. As a screener. As the ball screener. That's very high for a wing who averages 22 points a game and indicative of.
- [92:25]
C
That's up, that's up from the past couple years, isn't it? It should be.
- [92:28]
A
It's up. It's up like five or six. It's a lot.
- [92:30]
C
Yeah.
- [92:31]
A
And then off coming off ball screens. So not on balls, not setting on ball screens, but coming off of off ball screens like pin downs and stuff. He's at 17 per 100 of those. That's just like a pretty rare level of variety. And he's deadly coming off off ball screens. That's his best offense because you get him a head start that way and he's into the paint faster and more directly than otherwise. And like they, they ran this out of time out play against, I think it was in the Brawl game actually where I can't remember who had the ball up top, but Kalkbrenner was sidling out to set a screen for whoever was handling the ball up top and then u turned and set a pin down for Brandon Miller and the defense was like, what's happening? And all of a sudden Brandon Miller was in the paint and I just think that variety is really hard to guard. If you look at the numbers, the tracking numbers, when he shoots directly out of those plays or passes to a guy who's who then shoots like one pass away, the efficiency is kind of in. But the overall points per possession is super high on all of those play types with Brandon Miller, which suggests to me that like 1, 2, 3 passes, like they're, they're onto something with that stuff. And I don't know, man. I just think his extension negotiations are going to be interesting because is he a quote max player? Probably not. Is he a 25% max player? If I'm Charlotte, I'm trying to take a page out of the Houston playbook and negotiating a little bit, but I'M not going to go crazy at criticizing a max 25% max for him because I just think he's growing into the kind of player who maybe tops out as a second option on a great team. Maybe is Even like a 2.5 option on a great team, but the kind of version of that player that every great team has to have.
- [94:22]
C
Yeah, absolutely. And I think you. You're mentioning, you know, within that one play. I think that's a microcosm of what makes the Hornets interesting is that they have all these different levers that you have to. You have to consider and especially when you're scrambling. And I think the pace thing is just really interesting in general.
- [94:37]
B
About.
- [94:38]
C
There's almost something about. I don't know, I went on this lazy river in the Bahamas that was not lazy at all. And it. And I just remember getting on it and being like. Like, this is a little uncomfortable. Like we're moving a little fast. Like it never slowed down or stopped. And I'm just thinking like, the Hornets offense right now just has this. I did not expect to make that comparison. But we. I just. The Hornets offense, you hit it, it's like it has this. It has this rhythm and flow to it that is not stagnant. Like, they don't slow it down and pound it and kind of get it to a spot. And then, you know, I just think. And it's made me think a lot about. I texted you this. This guy because I was watching him last night. He's been on. On my mind lately. Just as prospect there. Let me speak to what I think they need the. When I was talking about, like, the downhill stuff, I feel like there is a pace sort of change, like change up that they could throw. If they get a certain type of a player who can play, it's a little warriors, honestly, if. If they get a guy who can play out of the high post, who can attack single coverage, who can get downhill and get to the basket, or just give them a little bit of a change of pace in the half court, I kind of feel like that's the kind of guy they should target. Right. Because Dante's been serviceable. He's been good. Kalkbrenner's been serviceable. Yeah, I just. I feel like that kind of a player at the four is the kind of thing that could really level them up.
- [95:58]
A
Well, to. To your point. And then we'll move on to scoot. The one thing that I was. I watched a million Brandon Miller pick and rolls yesterday. And the one thing that really jumps out is he has a lot of trouble when teams blitz him, which is, which is not unusual for, what is he, 22 years old, learning the NBA?
- [96:15]
C
But he's skinny and his center of gravity is kind of high and he kind of gets stag. Like that's been his challenge. Yeah, yeah.
- [96:21]
A
And under pressure, his handle can get a little wonky. He just doesn't deal with it well yet. And having a release valve big man would really, really help him. Just give the, give the ball to the. Your screener and he can do something from 25ft out. Now, Musa Diabate, to his credit, has gotten better at catching that situation. One dribble floater, one dribble pump fake bank shot. Like he's gotten better at it, but he's more like he's got to catch it. It 14ft from the rim, not 25ft from the rim. Anyway, I just love Brandon Miller and I don't know if I'm taking the over on two and a half all star appearances, but I'm super optimistic. I'm here to tell you this. I think everybody kind of forgot about Scoot Henderson because he's had this hamstring thing that just lingered and lingered and lingered. The Blazers evolved without him. The Blazers have drew Holiday also as sort of a hybrid point guard. And there's this sort of notion of Scoot that he can only operate on the ball. And the Blazers have turned that job over to other people, notably Denny Abdia. And obviously his jumper is shaky. Right. People are going to go way under screens and dare him to beat them with jump shots. His turnovers this season, I mean, this is not a typo. He's averaging eight turnovers per 36 minutes in four games. It's only been four games. And they're just like wild turnovers. Like a lob off the backboard, an entry pass that the guy doesn't even know is coming and gets stolen. Sometimes he goes like he gets caught in traffic and goes a little too fast and has nowhere to go or like he runs into his own. Just wild turnovers. But I'm here to tell you this, like, keep an eye on Scoot because the explosiveness and burst are like very much still there. This guy is so fast and so strong. Against Minnesota the other day, he scored like 18 points in that game. I think he flat out just roasted Anthony Edwards off the dribble from the right wing. Just like, I'm going right around you and there's clip and there's nothing you can do about it and you can go under screens against him. Everyone's going to do it. He gets out of control a lot. It's early for Scoot. It's early this year for Scoot, but he's fast enough to beat you to the spot and he is strong enough already to knock you on your heels with one little shoulder block. Now the finishing after that has not been good enough. And that's. He's been a bad rim finisher in the NBA and if he can't finish at the rim, he's never going to be that good of a player because that's where he's really got to live. And the last thing is, look, he's shooting 36% on threes combined over the last two seasons, which I realize is only like 70 games and not a ton of attempts. It looks okay to me. He's taking them off the dribble pretty willingly and I'm glad that he's experimenting with that. I don't know exactly what he's going to be. Portland is no longer built to just hand the keys to him. Damian Lillard is looming to return next season, but I do think all of us are a little bit guilty of like you're either an on ball engine or you're an off ball player and there's nothing in between. And Scoot is not an off ball player. He has no gravity. No one's going to guard him. And really for most teams there's a, there's a continuum between those two extremes where good players have to be able to live, where that guy might not be the number one on ball option, but I'm going to get reps even with Denny in the game and I'm going to have to learn also how to play off the ball. And Scoot. You can see him like he kind of is smart about relocating off the ball for threes, like slipping into the corner and. And if not threes, then catch and go drives. I'm like, I feel like it's been out of sight, out of mind. He sort of almost pre labeled a bust, particularly with the Thompson Twins and Keonte George behind him. I don't know what the future holds for him, but four games back has already reminded me. Like I like this is. You can see what everyone saw in him already. And I would not write off Scoot by any means.
- [100:15]
C
No. I mean he just turned 22 years old for sure. And it's interesting when we talk about him being gone because I catch myself thinking like, is he. Where has he been? Is he Just been in some phantom like realm for like the past two years. But you look at the numbers, it's like six. He's played in the 60s for, for, for two of the, you know, his first two seasons. So it's like, it's not great, but it's not the worst thing you've ever seen. Like you said, Miller is their lock step two.
- [100:39]
A
Yeah. But again, on a team that's been kind of caught between identities, on a team that you can focus on his poor jump shooting, which is not great, it's a team full of poor jump shooters. So that when Scoot cracks open an alley, which he can do on his own, that's how explosive he is. Like, even if you're trying to go under against him, he will beat you to the spot. Or he'll like fake toward the screen and reject it. And he's in the paint. And guess what? Everyone else is in the paint too. Because the team doesn't care. If Shaden Sharp shoot threes, if Tamani Kamara shoot threes, if Chris Murray shoot threes, if Donovan Klingon shoots threes, no one cares. The Portland is the team that can't shoot straight. And that hurts Scoot too.
- [101:16]
C
No, yeah, yeah, it doesn't. It definitely doesn't help. And I think when you're describing his on and off ball, now granted his first year at Ignite, he got a pretty. He's willing to. I'll make the point here at the beginning here that he is willing to do that. He's willing to play on and off ball and kind of toggle and switch back and forth because, you know, he got a little bit of that training in his first year with Ignite because they had some prospects. He wasn't the centerpiece. Second year, he's more the centerpiece. So he's used to doing that. He's willing to do it. He's not like a role stubborn player. But when you're talking about him like what he projects to be in a winning environment. The guy that Portland imported to, to play along with this young team is the patron saint of that role. And that's Drew Holiday. So I think that's a pret. Interesting thing that they have on their team. And I went back and I was comparing their 20 and 21 year old stats and, and I'll leave, I'll fire this into a question that I want to ask you. But they're, they're not that terribly dissimilar. They're, you know, in terms of their build, I think he might, you know, Drew might have an inch on him, an inch and a half. I'm curious though, like, what the thing that I found myself asking about Scoot is, what is the centerpiece skill? Because when I was talking about the efficiency among the rookies forever, who it was who have like put up as many shots as he has. There are some scary names down there in that basement that you don't want to see. You know, it was like Dennis Smith Jr. Emmanuel Moudier. But there are also some guys who are down in that, in that basement who attempted a lot inefficiently. Jason Kidd, Lonzo Ball, Jalen Suggs. Those are all high hyperactivity, high hand eye coordination, disruptive defenders. I don't know if Scoot's totally really that it's like. And I don't know that he has the playmaking acumen. So he's kind of caught in this Netherlands region where I'm like, what do you think his marketable skill is that we're like, all right, this is what Scoot Henderson does.
- [103:03]
A
I think it has to be. It has to start with pressuring the basket in transition and in the half court. And that's where his jump shot makes it a little bit harder for him. And his lack of finishing, like you say the word, moodier and I get scared because scoot is a 6:3 bully ball kind of guard. I think he's a more explosive athlete than a guy like Moudier is. But, you know, it never worked out for Emmanuel Moudier. Now I will say, other than Jason.
- [103:27]
C
I'd say on the, on the ground he is. I think he's similar, but I. Scoot surprisingly doesn't get vertical with his athletic. Like, I think his strength and his balance are. His are strong, but I don't know, like, if he got above the rim a little easier, I'd feel better about it. But I just wanted to comment on his.
- [103:43]
A
Yeah, there are a lot of reverse layups and stuff around the rim when you would like to see dunks or, or fouls drawn and all that. I do say, I will say other than Jason Kidd, who's obviously in a category all of his own in the names you just mentioned. I do think Scoot is a better passer than any of those guys. He's a pretty instinctual passer. Now he's a little bit wild and it's harder for bad jump shooters to access all the passes in their bag because they just don't open up. But he can sling it with both hands. He's a pretty slick pocket passer, and he throws the kind of passes that catch the defense on the wrong foot. Like he will hit a shooter in the opposite corner when that guy's defender is still rotating into the paint. Like, he throws it early. Now, sometimes he throws it too hard. Like, there's a lot of mustard on his passes and a lot of his interior passes get dropped because it's like, dude, I'm just two feet away from you. You don't have to.
- [104:37]
C
Randy Johnson, he will rock at those.
- [104:41]
A
But he. He his. And so it's hard to sort of find a pattern within the wildness of his passes. But there are some that he throws where you're like, he saw that early and he gave that guy an advantage. And I just, I like, he's averaging 10 assists per 36 minutes so far and only four games. He's. He's been around seven, I think, in. In previous seasons. He's also been an elite free throw shooter. Like 80% elite is maybe strong. An 80% free throw shooter, which makes me perhaps hopeful that the jumper can continue to improve. I just think there's a lot. I don't remember Emmanuel Moodya or even Jrue Holiday making me excited as passers. The way Scoot will three or four times a game, and the mean streak bully ball stuff is in there. I just. Look, if you're redrafting today, I think you're definitely taking both Thompson Twins over Scoot. Even. Even a SAR whose offensive development has been a little scattershot. I think you're definitely taking Keonte George over Scoot. Is that fair? Am I too, too high on Keonte George? I think what he's showing.
- [105:46]
C
That's fair. Yeah.
- [105:47]
A
Everyone else, like, are you taking Anthony Black over Scoot? I think that's actually an argument. And, And. And Anthony Black has been better in more minutes than Scoot. But I, I'm just saying, like, I'm. I'm very curious to watch Portland's last 25ish games, let's put it that way.
- [106:05]
C
Yeah. I think on the spectrum of worry, we rattled off a lot of names and I didn't want to just like, if you say there's the spectrum of worry that. And over here is the kids. The Lonzo is the. You know, I forget the other name that I said, but. And then we have the Moody's. I think Scoot's probably somewhere he's away from those. I think you're right. I think he has a lot better feel than the Moody's. And the Dennis Smiths of the world without quite the defensive disruption. So you're kind of just like, you're waiting for some skill to sort of like jump forward. If he could clean up the, you know, the pass placement, the velocity of the passes, those have been kind of consistent problems for him. Maybe those things will, you know, even out. He definitely seems like he's getting his sea legs under him a little bit in these first few games that he's been playing. But, yeah, Portland is. I don't know, it makes me think that they're. The retooling in the, in the personnel that they continue to acquire. He's going to need some of that to improve for him to be in a comfortable kind of stasis. Because the packing, the paint and stuff like that that you were saying, those are exacerbating his problems, I think. So hopefully, I don't know, maybe. Maybe V. Kresi can hit some more of those.
- [107:08]
A
He's playing a lot more shots. I don't know what it's going to be. They're. They're kind of attached to each other in the rotation. Defensively, like. Yeah, I just can't figure out why he hasn't been better defensively. And some, some of the advanced metrics are like, oh, my God, bad with him defensively, the one thing. It's only four games. I'm happy to see his defensive rebounding rate is way up because he should be a good defender and he should be a good rebounder. And he has not been through four games. He has been certainly. I know the Blazers have noticed that. Cause he can rake it and take it it if he gets it, if he gets a rebound. So I like that.
- [107:42]
C
Rake it and take it. I haven't heard that one. Do you make that. Do you coin that? Do you still. Do you pick that up? I haven't heard that.
- [107:49]
B
I don't.
- [107:49]
A
I just. I think this is going to be an interesting draft to revisit for a long time. Underneath Wembanyama. I mean, would you. Who would you take second? Brandon Miller or Amen Thompson if you redrafted it?
- [108:01]
C
Oh, that's tough. Because, man, I mean, you know, we, we. We still haven't seen, you know, the playoff return is kind of give. Going to give us a better feeling of what the ceiling of a man is in a serious playoff series kind of a situation. I just, I really still, I still love Brandon's size and his playmaking and his shooting. I think there are levels to go like, I, you know, I, I think that's a toss up. Honestly, I don't know where you land on that.
- [108:31]
A
I think it's a toss up, too, but I'm going to force myself to answer the question. Brandon Miller is the safer pick. I think I'm going Ahmed Thompson because I just think the defensive upside is a plus plus plus plus plus and I can figure out some other stuff offensively, but it's the fact that it's a conversation. Given how much buzz Amen has, I don't think there's been enough buzz about Brandon Miller and I just want to give him a little love for his play. Kyle Mann, Group Chat what else we got coming from you? We got some draft stuff coming soon.
- [109:00]
C
Draft stuff's coming soon. We I've been working in the, in the quiet, so that stuff is all gonna, that's gonna be written and some audio and some video coming. So we got as, as the college season ramps or winds down, ramps up, whatever you want to say, I guess it ramps up at the end as it winds down. So that stuff's all gonna be coming. So keep an eye out for it.
- [109:19]
A
Thank you for your time, bud. It's always good to chat it up with you and talk giraffe. We'll talk draft when we get there. Jay Kyle Mann, everybody. Thank you much. So, sir, all right, that's it for another edition of the Zach Lowe Show. We will be back Thursday. That's right. Our new schedule is now Tuesdays and Thursdays because I'm doing Sunday's pod a lot with Bill. And so, yeah, football's over. Basketball takes its spot there. So we'll be back Thursday. Thank you to Rob Mahoney, thank you to Kyle Mann, thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production, and thanks to all of you for listening to and or watching the Zach Low show. See you Thursday. Thursday 21 or over in President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org ChattinConnecticut or is it mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland? Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for for 24. Seven supportive Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867. Monster Energy Everybody knows White Monster Zero Ultra. That's the OG. It kicked off this whole Zero Sugar energy drink thing. But Ultra is a whole lineup now. You've got Strawberry Drinks, Blue Hawaiian Sunrise and Vice Guava and they all bring the Monster Energy Punch. So if you've been living in the white can, branch out. Ultra's got a flavor for every vibe and every single one is Zero Sugar. Tap the banner to learn more.
- [111:01]
B
Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today, while I'm letting go of.
- [111:10]
A
The worries that I wouldn't get my new contacts in time for this class.
- [111:13]
B
I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast.
- [111:17]
C
And breathe. Oh, sorry.
- [111:19]
A
I almost couldn't breathe when I saw the discount they gave me on my first order.
- [111:23]
B
Oh, sorry.
- [111:25]
A
Namaste. Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-contacts.