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- [00:01]
A
This episode is brought to you by Lincoln. Whether you're watching highlights while parked or heading out for a Drive, the 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid keeps you connected with smart tech that helps tie your on screen and off screen worlds together. So help turn every drive into an opportunity for discovery with a 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid. Learn more at lincoln.com available connectivity, features and functionality vary by model. Package pricing, trials and term lengths vary by model. Video streaming and games are only available while parked. Foreign. Up after this on the Zach Lowe Show It's Monday. We got a lot to talk about in the NBA. Oh my God, the Eastern Conference. Where do, where do we even begin? Philly's on fire. They just boat race. The Knicks. The Knicks have lost three in a row. The Cavs, are they back? Are they not back? Are they kind of back? The magic right when you start to get optimistic, Jalen Suggs gets hurt again. The Boston freaking Celtics. Gap year Celtics. Boy was I wrong about them. Have the number one point differential in the Eastern Conference without Jason Tatum. Should they be number one on our Eastern Conference power rankings? Fred Cast from the Athletic is here. We're going to go 15 to 1 Eastern Conference power rankings based on who can actually make the NBA Finals. So spoiler alert. Like Washington, Indiana did not do very well. I legitimately you could order the top 5 or 6 in almost any way you wanted. Maybe not almost any way, but it was, it was dicey up there. Who should make a trade? Who's going to make a trade? We talk about all of that stuff, plus a little bit at the beginning about the Thunder. Thunder lost to the Suns. They're 6 and 5 in their last 11 games. Three of those losses are to the spurs, but other little losses are popping up here and there. What's going on in the West? Who's going to get the two seed? Wemby's hurt. Shingoon turned his ankle. Jokic is hurt. The Nuggets have lost two in a row. It's kind of a chaotic time in the NBA, but particularly in the East. Fred Katz is here to discuss all that with us. Hope you enjoy it. Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show. It's Monday. The Thunder lost. The east is a mess. Fred Katz, my buddy, is here. Fred, how you doing?
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B
I'm doing great. I'm doing great. I don't have my own podcast apparel like you do in that fantastic hoodie, but I'm starting to think maybe I should.
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A
Literally one of a kind. Fred. The demand for this merchandise was so great that my buddy Mark made one of them and gave it to me for free. So he made $0 shout out mark on his that's a good friend merchandise.
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B
That's a good friend. Or maybe it's a friend who's mocking you in your case. I don't, I don't know. If my friends gave me a podcast up sweatshirt with my podcast on it, I would probably take, I would probably take offense to it. I'd be like, you're mocking my podcast.
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A
It's very comfortable. And he's a big fan. Okay, the we are going to do something we did at the very beginning of the season, which is power rank the Eastern Conference and boy oh boy is a complete chaos all over the place. The Celtics now have the best point differential in the east by a lot. The Knicks, my preseason pick to make the Finals, have lost three in a row. Caveats, injuries back to backs on all three. But they look, they look. I mean they've never been invulnerable. This is the someone has to win conference. So we're going to power rank it from 15 all the way up to 1. The Sixers. Okay, okay. Philly the Heat have won up like five of six or something. They look great. It's complete chaos. I texted like 20 coaches in front office people, give me your top 5 in the east just randomly off the top of your head. Most people forfeited the entire assignment. They're like, I don't even want to do it. It's too crazy. Someone has to win. But oh my gosh. In the Western Conference, Fred Katz, speaking of the east being open, I'm not saying the west is open. I'm just saying Phoenix beat the Thunder last night. Thunder are 6 and 5 in their last 11 games. Three of those losses are to the spurs, but the vulnerability is spreading. Minnesota beat them. Phoenix beat them. Booker makes a big three last seconds of the game in that 11 game stretch. If you want to go through the numbers, it's the offense that has really been the issue for the Thunder. They are 20th in points per possession. Over those games, they have fallen to dead last in offensive rebounding. Their free throw rate is down. And their half court offense, which is number two for the season according to cleaning glasses, 14th in that stretch. Now have they had injuries? Yes. Hartenstein is hurt right now and he is their offensive rebounding for Better or worse, A.J. mitchell missed two of the spurs games and they just constantly have guys in and out of the lineup. But you know, they've generally been fairly Healthy and even their wins. They blew out the Blazers who are okay, beat the Zombie warriors who sat everybody on a national TV game like it was Greg Popovich in 2012. And the Sixers, they, they blew him out without Embiid. But it was like a little rickety for a bit in that game. What's happening here, Fred Katz?
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B
Well, number one, I think the shooting has just fallen off to an incredible degree and that's something that maybe we could have seen coming at the beginning of the year. Even when they were winning a ton, they were not shooting great from three for like the first month or so. And then leading into that loss to the spurs in the in season tournament when they were 24 and 1 or whatever they were for the previous month, they had been shooting 43% from 3. Just an outrageous number. I mean everyone was hitting ridiculous numbers. And I think what we're seeing right now is just a little bit of 3.0 regression over this 11 game stretch where they're 6 and 5. I want to say they're around 34%.
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A
33.4%, 33% from deep.
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B
So even, even worse. And that, that just like tends to come down like you look at over this stretch. Like a guy like Aaron Wiggins, he's not hitting his threes, Caruso isn't hitting his threes. Case and Wallace is somebody we haven't really, no one's focused on the fact that Kasem Wallace is not having necessarily, it's not that he's having a bad year. He's an unbelievable defender and fits into everything they do so well. But he's not necess like a leap sort of year that maybe you could have expected to see from, from a young player of his caliber. He's, I think he's been a little down and, and his shot has not been nearly as good this year. And it's just kind of something I've, I've been monitoring all year. Lou Dort is, is a guy who's kind of not, I don't think played at the level that he was at the last couple of years so far this year. And look, this is why it's really, really hard to go 73 and 9. This is why even a team that's just insanely good is going to have some stretches where it goes 6 and 5. I think if I'm the Thunder, I probably feel pretty happy this is happening now. You know, the trade deadline is a month from today and they've got time to figure out, okay, well maybe we do need another offensive rebounder here or somebody who can, who can maybe. Or maybe even a strategic shift where they crash a little bit more or a little bit differently or a little bit more aggressively because they're not a very aggressive, crashing team. And compared to other, you know, top teams around the league, maybe, maybe they, they could use another, you know, athletic guard who could help them against San Antonio who obviously is a tough matchup for them because they're 30 against. Against the Thunder this year. I think, I think they'll figure it out. I think every great team even has a stretch where they go six and five. It's just so jarring because they started.
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24 and one and again half their losses are to one team. They're the only team that doesn't turn the ball over against the Thunder. The spurs are. They're still forcing heaps of turnovers against everybody else. And I think the spurs sort of the, the roster log jam that everyone was not me but concerned about the, the overload of guards ball handlers has actually been very helpful against the Thunder. Like the more like actual proven point guard type players you have on the floor level ball handlers, the better. Yeah, look, The Thunder are 30 and 6. They're going to have home court. There's still four games ahead of the Spurs. Wemby's injured, Devin F's injured. No one looks like they're going to threaten them for the number one seed in the Western Conference. The Nuggets could have. The Nuggets are now missing Jokic. They've lost their last two games without him in dispiriting fashion. So I shouldn't say that the Cleveland game was a rollicking one for that was a good showing. And then Brooklyn, they got kind of rolled yesterday. They, they are 21 and 1. The Thunder are against sub 500 teams and a relatively mortal 9 and 5 against 500 and over teams. Having played the easiest schedule in the league so far, the 9 and 5 number. I'm just going to, I'm just going to keep looking at because I like all of these teams like the Nuggets absolutely think they can win the championship. The Rockets are bullies. They're not afraid. The Lakers, although they should be afraid of the Thunder, never really have been. I don't really think they're in this conversation, frankly. The Wolves have always played the Thunder tough and the spurs obviously have done what they've done. It ain't going to be a cakewalk out of the west for them. Also should be noted this we're now kind of in the dog days of the season. Like the cup is over. We're halfway through the season. People can kind of see All Star come in. Like this is a time when somewhat strange stuff can happen. I want to also give, by the way, Denver Denver after that Phoenix win last night. That's a big win for Phoenix because their schedule is about to get a lot harder and notching a win against Oklahoma City is a huge sort of buffer against if any slumps come. Denver now only two games up on Phoenix for the seventh spot, absolutely at risk of being in the play in range when Jokic comes back. I just want to give Phoenix a shout out. I just I took the under on them. I think it was 34 and a half. They're 21 and 14. Everyone has lauded them for being the toughest, hardest playing team in the league. They deserve all the flowers for that. They are just tough as all hell. I just can't believe that they've survived offensively given the what my concern preseason was. Who's handling the ball when Devin Booker is off the floor? Who's helping him handle the ball when he is on the floor? You look at some of their backup lineups when Booker's off the floor, it's like I can't believe that they're surviving. But Gillespie has been tremendous. Jordan Goodwin, who is an offensive rebounding machine, hit eight threes last night. He's been great. Osogadaro as their backup five has really stabilized their bench and played a lot in closed games for them. A lot of times Booker's Booker, they've just dug out enough points for their defense and their toughness to to win and and they're going to. They're in the hunt for a top six seed. I I think the schedule will turn on them a little bit and Denver will pass them. But the teams above them better play well. Fred Cats because they're pretty damn good. I was very wrong about the Suns. I can't believe how good they are.
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B
Yeah, they're really good on the margins. Like they're really good on the offensive boards. You know, I mentioned like crashing strategies before. They have one of the most interesting crashing strategies in the league in terms of just how often they send guys to the glass and they have a lot of guys who are really good at it. They force turnovers like they're good on the margins in that sense. Also, can I just like Dylan Brooks has been awesome.
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A
Fringe All Stars not going to make the All Star team. Fringe All Star I'll tell you what.
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B
Last year, Kevin Durant on shots, passes, turnovers, fouls out of his isolations, the Phoenix suns average like 120something points per 100 possessions, which very good, seems good. It's unbelievable. Not only is it unbelievable, Second Spectrum's been tracking that stat since 2013. That was the highest number for like a high volume season. I think that's 500 plus I isolations in a season. That was the highest number for a high volume season since Second Spectrum started tracking it in 2013. So their offense turned into when Durant was there and they were, they were pretty okay when Durant was there last season. It was when he wasn't there that they were terrible. Their offense turned into give the ball to Kevin Durant and just make something happen. And with Durant gone, it's like especially in crunch time, that's what they did. And with Durant gone, you're thinking, okay, what the heck is going to happen? Especially the end of shot clocks. You know, Dylan Brooks has been like the sixth most efficient isolation player in the NBA this year.
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A
Made a big step back three last night against the Thunder to I think put the Suns up 3. I can't remember what the score was, but it was a huge shot.
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B
He's shooting the hell out of it from mid range too. Like he's, he's been such a good scorer this year and I think has also been so important for their just like rugged defensive mentality, getting them out into transition. Really good point of attack which helps them force a lot of those turnovers. They're, they're, they're, Booker's been really good all year. I mean, I think Booker's an all star this year. They, they've, they've been, they've been really good also. Yeah. Colin Gillespie, how about it? One of the most improved players in the NBA.
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A
It's just going to be really interesting to look at the west standings in three weeks because the warriors, you know, they kicked that game against the Thunder and then they did their job, which is win the next game on the back to back against Utah despite Draymond Green getting ejected again. They're I think five and two in their last seven, something like that. With one of the games being basically a tank game schedule. Tank. They, they haven't given up hopes. I was with their people in Toronto last week. They haven't given up hopes of crap cracking the top six. So they never give up hope and they have a history of late season runs. I mentioned spurs injuries. We'll see how Long Wemby's out and this seller, this sells out. Shangun sprained his ankle the other day for Houston. They really can't afford to lose him for much, but they're, they're rock solid. Minnesota after Anthony Edwards walked off the court in a blowout loss to the Hawks, the second horrible loss the Wolves suffered after beating okc. They also got rolled by Brooklyn. Minnesota's won a couple games in a row. Kind of seem to have restored order. The Ant walking off the court thing, pissed at Chris Fin for pulling the starters. That's water under the bridge. And the Lakers, you know, look, they beat the Grizzlies two times or I'm not giving them any trophies for that. But they, they, they are. You know, everyone counts when you don't have Austin Reeves. Their defense is what it is. And the warriors again are 19 and 17, three games behind Phoenix, four games behind Minnesota in six. It's just going to be. I can't wait to see how those standings shake out. But the Thunder at the top seems like the only certainty.
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B
The east the exact opposite.
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A
Where there is no certainty. Where multiple people when I asked them about the Eastern Conference or to rank the rank the top five in the east, just send shrug emojis or say to me in person if I'm at a game, somebody's got to win. That should be the east. The East in 2026. Somebody's got to win. Somebody's making the Finals. This is why the Bucks 16 and 20 can't do anything without Giannis. 4 and 1 since Giannis came back the least convincing 4 and 1 stretch you could possibly imagine. We'll get to them somewhere in our mutual power rankings. This is why they're like, hey, Zach Levine, Michael Porter Jr. Jeremy Grant. Who can we get without giving up? The only draft pick we can trade. By the way. Phoenix still can't doesn't control any of its picks till 2032. So where they go long term with Malawatch not doing much as a rookie? Not unexpected. We'll see. But this is why the Bucks are like can we get one of these guys without even including a pick? We want somebody. We can't give up because we are although we are 11th, we're one game out of the play in. Everyone in the play in is pretty flawed. No one at the top scares us. It's crazy. Someone's got to win. Boston, the Boston Celtics having talk about wrong. Yeah, the clip. When I said to Michael Pina who agreed with me by the way, yeah, I'm Throwing him under the bus too. When I said, and they did social media people at Spotify, Ringer, of course they clipped this. What I said, what is the case for optimism in Boston? Look at this front court rotation of career backups and DNP people. Well, I don't understand the case for optimism. Couple of their coaches hit me after I said that and said, just wait, wait. We saw the clip. Just wait. They have the number one point differential in the Easter 22 and 12. Joe Missoula has to be the front runner for coach of the year. I can't believe it. Okay, power ranking the east from 15 to 1. Fred Katz. We're going to, we're going to be very quick on the bad teams. Who'd you have at 15?
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Indiana.
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Me too. Indiana. Look, I can't even put you above the Wizards when you're on a 12 game losing streak. I think it's 12. Is it 13 now?
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Whatever it is, I stopped counting at like seven.
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It's very bad. And you know, I've spent a lot of this season. We, we know that the Pacers are in the middle of a gap year, an actual gap year. We know that they are in the best one year tank situation since the San Antonio spurs drafted Tim Duncan and that they're looking at the season of conference like, cool, we're 15th now. We get a top whatever pick in this draft. We get Halliburton back, we solve our center issues. Who's stopping us next year? We just came within a whisker of winning a championship. I have watched them this year, Fred, and thought, should they really be this bad? Like they've been not. I mean, Toppins missed the whole season. Neesmith came back about a week ago. So they haven't been healthy healthy, but they did reach like a critical mass of health. Like Matheran's been healthy not the last couple of games. Nemhard's been healthy, Siakam's healthy. McConnell came back. Like guys started coming back and they just kept on losing. It's like, are they, should they really be this bad? And then you know, look, they're young players just haven't like Jairus Walker, bad year. Ben Shepard, bad year. Matheran has a negative assist to turnover issue. He's not having a great year. That stuff is not super encouraging. But I do think this was sort of like, obviously this highlights how great Halliburton is, how important having a starting caliber center who can space the floor and Myles Turner was and just sort of how it really was a. You need all the pieces, or 90% of the pieces and even, like, a lot, losing toppin and Neesmith, a bench big who's good and a solid starter who's a fifth starter. Even that is enough along with Halliburton to just sink you down to this level. But I don't know, man. I got. I. I've enjoyed the Johnny Furfy appearances and starts in the last couple weeks. He's showing me something, and it's obviously, just wait till next year. I have one other thing on this team, but what do you want to say on the. On the Pacers?
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B
They're very. They make me very sad. I said this, I think, the last time I was on your podcast. They just make me very sad because I loved watching them so much last year. I think this is the effect of what happens when everyone has to step up one to two notches they're not ready for. And so you look at the guys on their team and you're like, why is this so bad? Nemhard is a good player and TJ McConnell is a good player. And you go through their roster and you're like, neesmith's a good player. But when they have to step up a notch or two, it just doesn't look as good. Like, Jay Huff was good for Memphis last year in the role that he was in. And now if, like, Jay Huff is trotting out there against. In situations that he necessarily shouldn't be in, he shoots 29% from three, as opposed to hitting his threes and looking a lot better defensively when you can play him in the spots that are best for him. So, like, I think a lot of this comes from guys being overextended. And I say this, having not really been around them much this year. They were. I was around them last year. They were a ridiculously competitive locker room. So I might, you know, get called out for being wrong on this. But I think this is just human psychology, and it's true for every team, no matter how competitive your locker room is at some point. And Siakam's been great this year, too. But at some point, like, the bad teams know they're bad, and it just kind of seeps into everything, and you're just like, oh, my goodness, this is dreadful. Just, please, can this season be over with? And that is just the psychology of having a team, not just in basketball, but in anything in life. And I sense that with them, the only.
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A
This is all about next year at this point. And the only thing I'm keeping my eye on is if you're going all in again next year, you need a better center by fathoms than what you have on the roster currently. And Isaiah Jackson is another guy who's injured and is largely disappointed this year. There's a lot of big men who are available, ranging from the super high salary guys like Anthony Davis and Demonta Sabonis probably to lower guys like probably Daniel Gafford and blah blah. I don't think they're going to be swimming in the big salary deep end and obviously they've had the Sabonis experience already, even though it's more likely to happen in the summer. I think they're going to sniff around at these centers that are available now and under contract for next year to see if they can find somebody who fits because they know they can't go into next year with this center rotation and Halliburton back. Okay, 14, I assume you had the Wiz.
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B
I had the Wiz. We're playing better lately, but they're still 9 and 25 and bottom four in offense and defense, but they're playing better lately. They've won. What is it, four out of six?
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Eleven. Six and five in their last 11 games. Bucks can't beat them.
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Out of 11. No Bucks. Bucs lost to him twice. It is funny that every single time somebody loses to the Wizards, like they all just after the game, they all have a recognition of what is wrong with us every single time.
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Dude, it's not even losing. It's not even losing. Teams who have barely beaten the Wizards have had team meetings and or explosive press conference sessions afterwards about how this is a really, like we should be pissed off about it. It's like you won by five, man. Just go on to the next thing. There's 82 of these things.
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B
Okay, very encouraged by Alex Sar.
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Dude, you know Alex Sar. He leads the league in blocks per game only because Wemby wouldn't qualify. As of now, opponents are shooting 50.9% at the rim against him and he challenges the most shots at the rim per game because he is basically by himself. And with some help on the wing from Bilal Koulibaly, who by the way, not for nothing defends Giannis as well as any wing who is smaller than Giannis in the entire NBA. Now Bilal Koulibaly is averaging 10 points a game on 38% shooting and 25% from three. That's discouraging. And that has to change for the Wizards going forward. I assume they're going to sell on all Their veterans. CJ I would sell on Kispert. I would sell on Bagley. Sell high. While the, while the going is good, I'm really first. They've won enough games where people started looking at their draft pick that they owe the Knicks. That's top eight. Protect me. Like, do they need to. Do they need to slow down here? They'll be fine. They're not going to give up the draft pick. The last thing I will say on the Wiz, I just. Just give me the next. Whatever games we have left in the season of Trey Johnson going bananas because holy fuck, can this guy shoot? I mean, quick trigger, he's got wiggle to him. He has a beautiful stroke. He's uber confident shooting 41% from 3 on super high volume. They this, he's going to be a player they did well with that pick. Yeah.
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B
And you know what's interesting about him is it's at the beginning of the year, the shooting was impressive and it kind of caught your eye. And lately, maybe the last month or so, he's been attacking closeouts off the dribble and then making good reads off of those closeouts. So at the beginning of the year, it was kind of like, okay, I see the closeouts close. I'm just going to attack and I'm going to go. Lately he's making these intuitive passes. He's. He's kicking it to the corner. He's. He's finding a cutter. He's making like. He's not facilitating by any stretch of the imagination, but he's making these connector plays. You can see the game is slowing down for him a little bit. And that plus the shooting, I think he's in a good spot. Bub Carrington has been making shots for the last month so.
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A
Like 45% on threes.
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Yeah, Bub's been making shots and he to me, is a guy who's like, his value is going to be in his shot making. It's just going to be like, if he makes a lot of shots, he's going to be a good player. And if he doesn't, he might be hard to, to fit into your team. And with sar, like, to come back to SAR with the rim protection, it's not just that he's a rim protector, it's that SAR is also a switchable center. And there aren't very many guys. Normally you got to kind of pick and choose and he shoots threes. Normally you got to pick and choose between, like, all right, are we going to have a guy who's more of a rim protecting center, or are we going to have a guy who we can, like, switch with on the perimeter? And all of a sudden Sar is looking like he's going to develop into a guy who you can switch with, who can protect the rim, who shoots threes, who has a vastly improved post game and face up game this year, who has more room moves around the rim than I could have imagined him having a year ago at this time. And that's like the. Just the schematic versatility that if and when the Wizards ever get good down the line, which is a long way off, but if they ever do and Saur is there, like, the schematic versatility he's going to allow them, not just. Not just the versatility of, like, he'll fit into whatever kind of players that you want him to have because he can kind of play in any system, but just like, all right, we're going to change in the middle of a game or we're going to change based on personnel. We got to switch against these guys, we got to blitz against these guys, we got to play drop against these guys. Sar's got to be more of a off ball, help defender, rover against these guys. Like, he can do all that kind of stuff. And that's really rare to just be able to just that skill set, forget about, like, how high the quality will end up being. To have that skill set and just be good at all those things is super, super rare. And that's really big for the Wizards.
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A
It'll be interesting to see when they look back at this draft to compare Trey Johnson and Jeremiah Fierce, because the organizing point guard is still the ingredient. That's not here. Fears has been good, but not so good that I have any regret about that. Obviously Ace Bailey is the guy they tried to manipulate things to go and get and it didn't. Didn't fall to them. Joman, another point guard. I'm fine. Trey Johnson over him. And then you got to go all the way down to Cedric Coward and Derek Queen, who were going to be taken in that range. So It's. It's fine. 13. Did you have the Brooklyn Nets? No. Oh. Would you have the Charlotte hornets interchangeable at 12 and 13? Let's start with Brooklyn, since it's my podcast and I had them at 13. Also 6 and 11. 6 and 5 in their last 11 games. They have gotten everyone in. Their grandmother has noted that they had the number one defense in all of December. I think that still stands. Congratulations to them. Look, Der Frisky Joman is shooting 37% on nine threes per 36 minutes. I'd like him to shoot more twos and sort of leverage his passing a little bit or unlock his passing a little bit more. But fine. MPJ is a real dude, man. Like he's not a good stats, bad team guy. And if they get value for him, I think they'll flip him somewhere and I think he could help somebody. DA Ron Sharp's playing well. Rookies are, you know, Drake Powell is starting to show some stuff. Cherry. We'll see. I don't know. I don't have a lot to say about Brooklyn. I'll just go to Charlotte. Charlotte's way more fun.
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B
I have one Brooklyn thing which I think is interesting, which I'm actually intrigued by them being so good defensively over the last month because it perfectly coincides with a change in their defensive identity because about early in the year they're just giving up tons of threes. They still give up a lot of threes but early in the year they're giving up tons of threes and they're giving up a lot of pull up threes. And so what do they do right around December 1st? I couldn't tell you if it was exactly on December 1st, but that's when everybody talks about is this marker and they're 8 and 6 since December 1st and they won last night against what's left of Denver. But Aaron Gordon was back in that game.
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A
Fewest threes. I've talked about this. Fewest threes in most shots at the rim defensively in that stretch.
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B
Well, they started switching a ton and that's taken away threes. They were switching so much over the last month. 45% of ball screens they're switching which like for perspective, I looked into this. I checked on Second Spectrum, the highest switch rate for a team in a single season since Second Spectrum began tracking this in 2013. 43%, ironically from the Brooklyn Nets in 2023.
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A
I was going to guess a Rockets team in the, in the Harden. The peak Harden era would have been my guess.
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B
That's what I thought too. They're number two, three and four.
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A
Okay, there you go. Not a bad guess by me.
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B
That's, that's what I would have thought too. But the Nets are switching at a ridiculously high rate and they've changed their. They were a pretty high switch defense at the beginning of the year, but not nearly as often as they're doing it now. And, and, and it's working well. And I think it's kind of confusing teams, and I think it's also making teams play later out of the shot clock, which is a good thing for them. So I'm, I'm. Look, I don't think they're the best defense in the league by any stretch of the imagination. But do I think, like my. I have one Nets fan friend who is just constantly freaking out about how they're going to ruin the Tank. Do I think he should be worried about them ruining the Tank? Like, maybe. Maybe he should be worried about getting the ninth pick.
- [29:00]
A
Well, yeah, they're. They're in the. The Utah bucket of. Are we winning too many games, though? They don't have the same risk that Utah has in terms of a protected pick that they owe. It's really next year when the Rockets can swap with them. That is. That is the, that is the real problem because that puts a limit on, you know, what the value being bad is next year. Obviously, they still have $15 million of space. I don't quite, you know, they have switchable guys. They have size. Claxton is a classic switching center. Sharp, less so. But he's been good for them on both ends of the floor. Frankly, I don't really get how they're doing it. They're getting a little lucky with jump shooting, obviously, but still, kudos to the Nets, the Hornets, you know, they've had some quality wins lately. They beat the Magic, the Hawks, the Cavs, when they had the Cavs at everybody but Mobley for that game of their big. Their big four. I guess I. They're a delight to watch. I will keep beating this stat into the ground until it becomes untrue. They are plus 34 total points, but in only 200 minutes. That's a real stat. 213 minutes with Brandon Miller, Lamelo Ball and Con Caniple on the floor. That's something. I don't know what this team's roadmap to a competent defense is for the next two or three years. Obviously, that's the big picture step. Lamelo is quietly up to 37% on threes after the worst shooting slump I could ever imagine him having. I don't think there's going to be a trade for him, and I think Charlotte should be okay with that. I'm done talking about Lamelo and the decision making. I've done it to death. I just like watching this team, the big qu. I mean, like Kalkbrenner, he's been hurt. He's a fine defensive player. Scion James is a Tank, I don't. You know, that threesome is a really interesting offensive threesome. Miller, ball, Knipple. I just don't know what the roadmap to a good defense is, but they're super fun to watch. And Knipple is awesome. And Brandon Miller 20 a game. The shooting's got to come up, but there's. He's going to be a very, very good player.
- [30:57]
B
Knipple, Lamello, chemistry is getting better too. They're. They're. They're running more like pick and pops lately. They'll do those, they'll have those actions where they come up and set two screens and Knipple's one of the screeners.
- [31:09]
A
And they are a great stagger screen team 100%.
- [31:15]
B
And LaMelo's created a lot of threes for Knipple out of those plays. He finds him in transition. They're, I think, on a better page. And look at some point, I don't know, tell me how hot of a take this is. But like, I don't think they're going to be able to keep all those three guys together. And I don't say that because of any sort of like, ego. Like, they're going to have to trade one of the three guys you mentioned because I don't think you can. Because I don't think you can build anything nearby.
- [31:43]
A
Let me have fun defense. I think you don't have to do it now.
- [31:46]
B
You don't have to do it now, but just it. You're not, you're not near contention. You want to see the evidence build up. You want to see who you want to keep. And like, Knipple's awesome and Lamello is obviously, you know, unbelievably talented and Brandon Miller's unbelievably talented. But like, I don't. Can you, can you survive as a. Even a good team if you're just getting roasted defensively all the time? Like, I. Well, I don't know if you can, but it's good to see the chemistry between those guys is growing in the meantime, like, you want to foster that.
- [32:15]
A
If you're them, the front court is not really helping them. I mean, Miles Bridges is a minus at the 4. Kalkbrenner is a rookie who can really do one thing on defense and play one kind of scheme and not really do anything else. And after that it's, it's a morass. Although shout out to my guy T. John Salon starting to play well. I. Look, I just think Miller should be an average to above average Defensive player, particularly off the ball. He's not there yet. Knipple should be an average to above average defensive player. Maybe above average is strong, but he's fine. He fights hard, he guards good guys. Lamelo, I'm not talking about anymore. He's big and he rebounds and we'll see. I'm not giving up on that yet. I'm certainly not selling low on Lamello. I understand the big picture. Thought I'd like to see them with a little bit more reliable support at the four and the five, the big guys being the most important positions defensively. Still number 11. Maybe this is where the disagreements really start. Fred Katz, who you got?
- [33:16]
B
So this is, this is where it just like I just felt bad about literally every single team up. I feel terrible about where I ranked them. Like, I feel like I'm just.
- [33:26]
A
I feel great about who I have at number 11. Number 11 with a ball bullet. Really?
- [33:31]
B
I have Atlanta.
- [33:32]
A
You. You're wrong, Fred. You're wrong. And as much as I'm. I'm eating crow, I. I mean, I'm eating hawk for my Hawks optimism. I'm not even eating crow. I'm eating hawk, which is probably against the law. I can't put them above the Chicago Bulls. I'm sorry. The Bulls are 11th in my rankings. I don't care that Josh G's hurt. I don't care that Kobe White's hurt. Talk about depressing. Talk about depressing. You know what's depressing? Nicole Avuchevic is depressing. Like every single Bulls game. Listening to Stacy King try as a big man, try to hide how appalled he is that Nikola Vucevic has not taken a post up shot or a two pointer in like 14 consecutive minutes, let alone what's happening on defense. He's old, man. He's getting old. It's just sad. Look, here's, here's what makes the Bulls watchable. Number one, someone should be trying to steal I odu from them. I don't know who it is. If I were Minnesota, I'd be trying to steal him. If I were any team that needs a little do ball handling, I'd be trying to trick the Bulls into trading me. Him saying, oh, you don't want to pay his extension? He's and bou zealous is starting to trend back up after he had like hot start kind of dipped into like, where is, where is he? Like, why Is he averaging 12 points and 0.5 assists a game for a team that's not any good? Now he's Back up. He had seven assists the other day by far, career high. His two man game with Vuchevic and like they're doing the double. Big thing with Collins and Sticks. Jalen Smith is he's gotten a little better at that. Obviously everyone saw he dunked Jalen Suggs into oblivion the other day. I just. Look, what do you want me to say? Kevin Herder's fun to watch. You know, they like talk about a team that might have some draft regret from this past draft. We haven't even seen a Senge who they took at 12, one spot behind Cedric Coward and one spot in front of Derek Queen. And they, I think all the intel suggests they had an opportunity to make the deal the Hawks made with the Pelicans or something similar and didn't do it. Like, yes, the Hawks deserve all the scorn. They deserve to be 11th. They are 10th on my ballot. So it's not as if I'm calling them up into the top six or something stupid like that because they can't defend anybody with or without Trey Young in the last month. I just, at least there's like exciting. At least there's some mystery to them. At least there's some trade possibilities with them. At least there's not something beyond, hey, we're going to win 39 games again and we're going to have cap space that will probably not use or misuse. Oh my God. The Bulls with cap space were terrified of them. That's it. So I have the Hawks and the. Do you have the bulls at 10 at least?
- [36:05]
B
Yeah, I have the bulls at 10.
- [36:07]
A
Let me, let me. Okay, let me tell you.
- [36:09]
B
Well, let me tell you my, Let me tell you my thought process. I originally had the Hawks at 10 and the Bulls at 11. And then I'm looking through it and I'm doing some prep and I remember that two weeks ago I just watched the Bulls drop 152 points on the Hawks and then two days later I watched the Bulls beat the Hawks again. And I'm like, I feel like it goes against the Spirit of Power rankings to throw the team with the worst record that just lost to the team with the better record twice ahead of the team with the better record and that just beat them twice. So I was like, I kind of have to do it. Even though if you ask me, like who am I taking in a playoff series? I. Pro Atlanta. Even if they have Trey, without Trey.
- [36:53]
A
Whatever else we're taking nobody. If first of all they can't meet in a playoff series, I'M going to sleep early. All they can do is meet in the play in AKA the Bulls Invitational slash Hawks Invitational. And if they meet in the play in let's make it three on three or something. Let's, let's have if they meet in the plan and this is the state of their franchises under 500 in the 910 spot. Let's just put like the Wizards into the play and replace do you can't if we're going to do if we're going to consider things like you can't pick in the four in the draft in consecutive years which is stupid and the NBA shouldn't consider it. How about you can't be in the play in again, you're out, you're disqualified from the play in Wizards you get promoted. Charlotte, you get promoted. Anyway on the Hawks look, we all know Trey is I was actually kind of relieved that the Hawks lost the game that Trey Young didn't play to Toronto because the, the, the Hawks can't win with Trey and can't lose without him. Was getting a little bit uncomfortable for everybody involved. I don't know that there's going to be a trade for him. I've struggled to find one. I think if there were a good one, they would do it. I've advocated that the Hawks best path may be to just do nothing. Particularly as the Pelicans, despite their best efforts to try and win, are now losing every game again. They've lost seven games in a row and are dead last in the west and obviously the Hawks control their pick. We shall see what happens. Here's a question Hawks related for you. I want your just quick off the cuff reaction. Nikhil Alexander Walker career year should the Wolves regret essentially choosing Naz Reed over Nikhil Alexander Walker?
- [38:34]
B
That's a good question. I'm going to say no because I don't think you can reasonably say that anybody should have seen this coming. Like I don't think the Hawks I can tell you the Hawks didn't sign Nikhil Alexander Walker and be like all right, this guy's going to blow up average 1920 a game still shoot insane percentages from 3 be an off ball menace and the defense is going to stay at the same level. Like I don't the Hawks weren't thinking that the Hawks thought they were getting the Wolves version of Nikhil Alexander Walker. So. So I mean in, in hindsight maybe because you know Minnesota has Gobert and they have Randle already and sometimes it's a little bit log jammy for them at the big and they need a point guard, obviously. But it's not like Nikhil Alexander Walker is coming out there and like initiating the offense all that much. He's still mostly an off ball guard. Dyson Daniels does more initiating for them. Like Luke Kernard will come in with the bench units and run some pick and rolls. Like Nikhil's not bringing the ball up. Running a ton of actions. Obviously Jalen Johnson's doing stuff and when Trey's there, he's doing stuff. He's still kind of playing similarly. He's just doing it in a way more in your face way and the shots are way up and he has been fantastic. But I don't know. I, I don't really think the Wolves should regret it and I don't criticize them for their process. What do you think?
- [39:55]
A
I don't either. It's a question that I get asked a lot when I go to games or when I meet with people because people like, you know, I did this pod with Krasinski a couple weeks ago on the Sixers and the Wolves. I called it the oh, you forgot about us pod and that these two teams are, were at that time trending well and sort of reminding people like, hey, like yeah, hey Wolves, we've been in the conference finals two years in a row. I know we're not sexy. I think they're pretty damn good. Then they went right into a slump, but they've dug back out of it. And I just think roster wise, although they have two heavy minute bigs in Randall and Gobert, like they're, they should have been positioned to make that decision because you need three good bigs. It gives you trade flexibility with Randall or Go or Gobert if something comes down the pike. And you had Dillingham and Clark and like guys that were sort of waiting in the wings for some of those guard minutes. It's just sort of what if it's in either or. I don't, I don't lose any sleep over it. Jalen Johnson, by the way, completely legit, needs to get better defensively, but he's completely, completely legit and he's fine. He's good. He's average. Ish. Defensively. He just should be better than that. Number nine.
- [41:08]
B
For me. Yeah, number number nine. This is where I put the Bucks. I didn't know what to do with the Bucks. I'm like, I can't. When they have Giannis, they're 13 and 9. When Giannis, when Giannis is on the court, they're 20.3 points per 100 possessions better. It's the largest differential for any player with like 500 minutes in the whole league. It completely changes everything, but they also come out and they do this disappointing crap. And I don't know if Giannis is going to be there. He's been in and out of the lineup. He's been dealing with injuries. The rest of their roster is kind of whatever. They're not a very good margins team. I didn't really know what to do with them. I still wouldn't pick them to win a playoff series even if they were fully healthy. So I just put them at nine because I don't know what they've done without Giannis. Has to, has to matter. And if I just assume Giannis is there, I guess you could justify higher, but I've just been thoroughly unimpressed kind of the whole way.
- [42:08]
A
A couple of clarifiers. I should have said up front, the criteria for these rankings is can you make the 20, 26 NBA Finals? That's. That's the criteria for me. Number two, I'm parking the Giannis thing over here. We've all talked about it. We all know who the teams are, we all know what the timing is. Just assume for sake of discussion that this is a thing that if it happens, happens over the summer and not in the season. Because I do think they're still trying to buy and if they buy, maybe they'll help themselves. Look, here's the case for the Bucks. You mentioned the record with Giannis. It's in the point differential with him on the floor. If that were a. Like they're plus two with Giannis on the floor and minus 18 with him off the floor. That doesn't do anything for me as a Bucks would be Bucs optimist, which I am not. They're plus 10 with Giannis on the floor. Like they're a straight up dominant team with Giannis on the floor. They're starting five, which is still relatively new, of Porter, Green, Rollins, Giannis Turner, plus 59 and 114 minutes. This is the case for the Bucks to be above this in the power rankings and to actually go in to the playoffs with a semi not delusional belief that we can do damages. We have the best player and when that guy's on the floor with our team of shooters around and we have a good shooter, a very good shooting team, we're pretty goddamn good. I just think, obviously there's no margin for him missing any games. There's in the playoffs. There's not even like a margin for him playing less than 40 minutes in some of these games. And the supporting cast is so rickety around him and semi unreliable that I just don't. I don't trust any of it. But the numbers are what they are, and I do think they'll try to do something at the trade that save. Spare me the. We're four and one since Giannis came back because the wins are Chicago in a close game. The dunk game. I love the dunk. Charlotte in a semi. Close game. Charlotte on a. Giannis basically buzzer beater dunk. Almost. The Wizards, they lost. And then the Kings, who are just. If we. I should. We should do an off season pot on just the most unwatchable teams of the last 15 years. Just unwatchable. Not even bad unwatchable. This is. They're in the conversation. I just. They'd be in the conversation for a top five spot. Okay, number eight now. Now it gets really interesting. It actually didn't get like. I think that 2 to 5, 1 to 5 is the most interesting actually, but it starts to get interesting now given the way Philly is playing particularly. Who'd you have at number eight?
- [44:46]
B
Miami.
- [44:48]
A
Okay. I had Toronto. Where'd you have Toronto?
- [44:50]
B
Seven.
- [44:51]
A
All right, so I had Miami seven. So we flipped them seven and eight. Yeah. Make the case. All right. Toronto is 21 and 15, fourth in the east, sixth in net rating among east teams. So a little bit above where we have them at. You had them seventh. I had them eighth. Right. They're 19th in offense and fourth in defense. Overall. Miami is 20 and 16. Hot lately. They are seventh in the east, so three spots behind the Raptors. They're 14th in offense and third in defense. So similarly skewed teams. The Heat are four and one in their last five. I don't know. Make the case for Toronto. We wake up and Toronto is 22 in the second round of the playoffs. And we've underrated them here.
- [45:42]
B
Toronto is very, very good at bleeding teams late into the shot clock, and I think that's a really good skill. I really, really like that for them. That's why they're so good defensively. They force more shots late in the clock than any other team in the league, and they force a ton of turnovers, and I think that's a really, really good combination. So I kind of think their defense is pretty real. It's why, like, I mean, I've seen some people say, like, you know, they're. They, They, I think, are allowing the second or third worst accuracy on three pointers in the league right now. And you know, you look at that and you're like, okay, maybe that comes down. But part of the reason why is because they're giving up so many shots late in the clock. And a lot of those are just rushed, you know, grenades that end up flying out to someone and you just kind of have to put it up. They defend really hard. They force a lot of turnovers. They get out in transition. They're good in transition when they do it. The half court offense is nothing special. Miami's offense is really fun to watch and Norm Powell has been amazing, but it's okay from a, you know, from an actual quality standpoint. And the other thing with Miami is I feel like both these teams have styles that they really understand and good identities and they know how to play them. But Toronto knows how to use its players. Miami is figuring out how to use its players still. Like, they still don't know exactly what they're doing with the. With the Bam where combination they've started the last few games when I hear something crazy. So I'm watching their game on New Year's Day and they started Bam and where in that game and where is in the left corner and Ware just makes a pass out to Bam to the top of the key for a three. Bam goes up and shoots it and misses the three. And I'm like, whatever. That was the first time all season that Ware has made a pass to BAM for a shot. The first time all season that's happened. Like, those guys are really learning how to play together still. And they've. They've started. They've started them the last, I think, four games. They've played 67 minutes the last four games together. And Miami is like plus 13 or plus 15 in those 67 minutes, which is really encouraging and really good. And we've seen like some bam bam to where. We've seen some where to bam. I just think, like, the most important thing you can do as a team is figure out how to maximize yourself with all of your best players on the court together. And where is really special and he's really good and bam is obviously phenomenal. And I think you just have to figure that out. And that was kind of my tiebreaker there. Even though, like, I didn't really feel incredibly strongly. I could have gone with your order too.
- [48:30]
A
Hey, look, if you want to tell me Raptors people, Heat people that you should be above even these spots, like, hey, Zach, why are you trusting the 76ers who are leaning on a rookie and a chronically injured big man and some Paul George who's been fine but has had injury issues. What is your basis for trusting the Cavs who are constantly dealing with health issues and just haven't looked that good, period. Even now that they're trending well, none of their wins have left me thinking, okay, the Cavs. The Cavs are really back. Darius Garland looks better. Hasn't cracked 20 points in his last five games. Looks better. Hey, Zach, why are you trusting the Orlando Magic? Franz is hurt. Suggs got hurt again. Yeah. Anthony Black is breaking out. Palace had some good games. They still have fit issues. Whatever. I get it. Like I would. I get all that with Toronto. You're dead right on their defense, and they're doing that because they're very switchy and they leverage their size on the wing really well and they close out like maniacs. They run people off the line and the next guy is always coming. They have this bench that comes in led by Jamal Shed, Jacoby Walker and Mamu, who has been, again, I'll say it again, maybe the best bang for the buck free agency signing of the entire summer. And they just like spring traps in the backcourt. And teams are don't. Teams are overwhelmed by the frenzy with which the Raptors play defense. And offensively, look, they've made the best of it, right? And by make the best of it. Here's an example from a recent game. They used the corners very well because someone's got to be in the corners. You have Barrett, who has handled the ball a lot in his career. Ingram handles the ball a lot of Scotty Barnes handles the ball well. They can't all be at the top of the key handling the ball, especially with Emmanuel Quickley as your nominal point guard. They got to use the corner as well. Well, here comes RJ Barrett rocketing up from the corner into a double dribble handoff with Scotty Barnes as the first screener and Emmanuel Quickley. So two of your three of your four ball handlers together in a double pick and roll on the empty side of the floor. Barnes rolls hard to the rim, which he's been doing more quickly. Flares out for three. Defense has to react to Barrett's drive because Barrett quietly 19 and 5 per game on good shooting. Kind of a glue guy for this team. Not someone that at this point you willy nilly throw into a trade for, I don't know, Anthony Davis making $60 million a year over the next two years. RJ Barrett comes around, kicks to quickly. Wide open three.
- [50:52]
B
Boom.
- [50:52]
A
Quickly shooting has trended up. Decision making up and down. They just make the best of an imperfect fit on both ends of the floor. I just don't know what the ceiling for their offense is. Their defense is legit. And the Heat. I had them above the Raptors only for sort of heaty reasons of. Is there a trade to be made? The bamware thing largely hasn't worked. You mentioned it's trending a little bit better lately. The fly on the wall there is Hero. And when Hero comes back, he was. He was available yesterday and did not play.
- [51:27]
B
I don't know.
- [51:27]
A
I just. They're. They're just a rock solid team and Jovic has come back and played well, which is encouraging for them. I think we have the right teams at seven and eight. I'm now curious who you have at six.
- [51:40]
B
At number six, I have the Philadelphia 76ers.
- [51:48]
A
Me too. Can we. Can we go back to the Raptors for a second? Wow. I'm surprised.
- [51:52]
B
We've been pretty similar.
- [51:54]
A
It's going to get messy soon. Okay, back to the Raptors. I mentioned ad. I don't do that like just randomly. I think they will look at pretty much every big man who's available to them because the purdle back issue is serious enough that they just signed Mo Bamba who was not playing anywhere. Not serious. I don't know how serious it is. I see him at games. He's walking into the games, he's warming up. Sometimes he's just not playing. I don't think Sabonis will be a target for them. I could be wrong about that, but my educated guess would be no. So I don't know where they'll go. We can go through all the bigs I don't want to do right now. It just goes back. I remember you and I podcasted about this. We picked our most, like most. I don't know what we called it, like weirdest or most bizarre contract of the off season. And my pick was the portal extension. Three years, whatever it was. That pays him $27 million in 2030, $29 million in 2029. So it declines a little bit. It's not a huge crippling amount of money. I just didn't get it. And if I'm another team and I've got to take that contract in a trade, like, no thanks. Jako Pearl's a good player. Good all around player. It's just I didn't get it. But anyway, I think they'll look at all the bigs, okay? Philly 19 and 14, fifth in the east, only eighth in net rating among Eastern Conference teams. However, everything looks rosy right now. Fred Katz. Three straight wins blew the doors off the Knicks at msg. Knicks were almost fully healthy for that game. We're on it back to back, but fully healthy. Maxine Embiid, plus four and a half points per 100 possessions. Joel, I'm. I'm officially getting nervous because I He looks markedly better than he did two weeks ago. He dunked for the first time all season in that game. Mock celebrated at the end of the game. He had. He's jumping higher. I don't have the tools to measure that, but I can tell you that when OG and an OBI drove along the baseline and Joel Embiid went up with perfect verticality, he went up higher than he's been on pretty much any shot challenge like that this season. His rim frequency on offense is up. He's seeking a little bit more contact on offense, which is good. And I just love the way he's playing with Edgecomb and Maxey and Grimes and McCain is sort of the fourth guy in that order now and has had a season. Embiid is playing very much with them and not apart from them. So you guys want to run ahead? Like I'll throw a hit ahead. Pass. You guys go. Vijay Edgecombe, you are a fiend in transition. I'm cool, Hank and back behind half court. You guys go finish the job. His average time per touch this season is 2.2 seconds. That's half a second to a second lower than he was in his big MVP years. He is very much sharing the offense with them and taking it over in a way at times. That makes sense. Paul George has been awesome. They have two first round picks at their disposal to trade and kind of a hole at power forward depending on. I don't know if they have a hole because Barlow's been good, Jabari Walker's been good. They played Paul Georgia power forward sometimes with the key three guards and Embiid, that is trending, right? I don't know, man. The way they're playing right now, they can beat any of these teams above them in a playoff series, period. That's how good they look right now. I have them here for the obvious reasons. I don't trust Joel Embiid's health and it makes me a little nervous to be very reliant on a rookie and they're a little undersized at guard, although all those Guards fight like hell on defense. But if this is the Joel Embiid, forget like he keeps trending up above this. If just this is the Joel Embiid they get in the playoffs and he's able to play every game. They should not be scared of anybody above them. I don't know if they have enough gas to win three playoff series in the east, but they are absolutely capable of beating any of you think that they're scared of the Knicks. They went toe to toe with the Knicks in the playoffs already and it was like one, two calls away from going the other way. I don't know, man. I'm getting a little nervous about how like I've just, I got to check myself a little bit. Got to check. That's why I have them six. Got to check myself a little bit. Fred.
- [56:15]
B
And they've been the Knicks twice at MSG recently. And Maxi, oh my goodness, the year Maxi is having, like, Maxi might end up first team all NBA.
- [56:26]
A
If Wemby misses enough games and Giannis misses enough games to disqualify them because of the stupid 65 game rule. Which should I, I talked about it last week. I don't like that it applies to all NBA to, to the strict degree that it does. He's going to be in a really interesting conversation with guys like Donovan Mitchell and Jalen Brunson and Jalen Brown who we're going to get to for a first team all NBA spot. He's been that good.
- [56:49]
B
Yeah, 100%. I mean, and MVP ballots like all of a sudden, if those guys aren't eligible, now you're starting, now you're starting to talk about like him and Cade 3 and 4, something like that. Like, he has been outrageous with the way that he's been leading this team this year. Those, those guards just smack you in the face.
- [57:09]
A
It is.
- [57:09]
B
Their speed is unbelievable. And I was, they played the Knicks recently and so I'm, I'm, I'm based out of New York, so I, I, I'm, I'm in there visiting locker room and I was just chatting with Quentin Grimes and we were talking about Embiid and I was asking him, is it like, is it tough to catch a rhythm right now in terms of like the overall team when Embiid's in and he's out, he's in, he's out. Do you feel like you have to accommodate him? And Grimes was like, no, it's the opposite. Like he's, he's accommodating us. And when he comes back, the Amount of just attention that comes off of us is just night and day. Like when he's back, it's just, it's unbelievable. And you're right. Like, you know what he had before the dunk, that was awesome. I heard you mention it on the pod the other day and I had a similar reaction.
- [57:54]
A
He had that self value.
- [57:56]
B
Yeah. But you know why that was awesome. You know that was great. It was because he thought he could do it. Like how often early in the year did we see, oh, he's not dunking because he doesn't think he can dunk. He's not making these plays because he, he doesn't think he can do it yet. That was just like if I'm, if.
- [58:14]
A
I'm Nick Nurse or Daryl Morey, that's $1,000 fine if you try that again. We're not, we're not, we're not playing that game. Big, bad, big fellas. But you know what? The, the dunk at the end of the Knicks team. Fine, you, nobody was near you just plop it in there. That. The self value. We're not doing it again. Full.
- [58:29]
B
That was a full. That was full force of cockiness right there. That was like I am, I am ratcheting it all the way back. He felt comfortable, he felt confident. He felt good in his body when he did it. And he missed the dunk and he almost did it. Like, he just missed the dunk. But if he, like I just thought the, the ambition to be able to do that was something we hadn't really seen from him early in the year. He looks really good. The jump shooting still needs to come around, which it probably will. The guy.
- [58:58]
A
I trust his jump shot.
- [58:59]
B
Me too. I just like, I, I look at.
- [59:01]
A
The jump shooting as a. I trust his long 2. I'm not sure I trust the 3. It'll be better than it is now as he gets his legs underneath him even more. But I don't like he's going to be a mid-30s three point shooter on wide open shots. The long two, I trust as a Dirk level fail safe for them.
- [59:19]
B
Yeah, he's one of the best mid range shooters in the league. When he goes in a slump, I consider it a fluke and I move forward with that. But they can give you a lot of different looks. Edgecomb Edgecombe is just a force, man. Dude, he is a force. He had to play against the Knicks the other day where he blocked Mikhail Bridges on a dunked on the other end. It was the first time Mikhail Bridges has been blocked on a three in two years. He blocked him, blocked him on a corner three. Kel bridges are ridiculously. Mikhail bridges, mechanics are 100% just to avoid contests like. That's why he shoots the way he does. He has such an insanely high release. He has ridiculously long arms. It's just to avoid a hand in his face when he goes up. And Edgecombe got. You want to talk about be getting up high? Edgecombe got up so high to block that corner three and then got the transition dunk, which was like a ferocious dunk. I mean, he is something else. And, and, and I'm waiting for McCain to turn it around. He's, he's a really smooth off the dribble player and a really good shooter. I'm, I'm waiting for him to find some comfort level coming back from the injury and kind of within this, you know, smaller role that he has.
- [60:28]
A
I mean, and Paul George has been the perfect version of Paul George for this team. And this is more or less, this is like with Vijay Edgecombe, the team that everybody, including me, was kind of optimistic about going into last year, which ends up being a disaster. And it just can't. You can't say enough. This series of events the basketball gods had to go through to get Maxey and Edgecomb onto this team in terms of pick protections and where, you know, Mike Muscala going crazy in the last game of the season. But they're here and Edgecomb. Look, everybody in Dallas wants the Rookie of the Year race to be over and they're appalled that anyone is talking about anybody else for rookie of the year. And I do think it's going to come down to Cooper Flagg, who is awesome and con knipple. Vijay Edgecombe is averaging 16 and a half points a game on a real team, a team that's winning games, flags at 19 a game and knipples at 19.4. Edgecomb is shooting 38% on threes. He's defending quite often the best perimeter player on the other team, regardless of position, but particularly if they are a lead point guard like Jalen Brunson. Cooper flag is shooting 27% on threes kind of a problem now. I do think his defensive ceiling is super high. His playmaking is secondary playmaker when they actually use him in that way. And they've begun benching Ryan Nemhardt again and starting point flag, which I don't really get, I think he'll be the best player out of this class. He's probably going to be my pick for Rookie of the year. But you know Edgecomb I think would probably finish third right now because Knipple 19.4 points per game, 50, 48% shooting, 56% on twos, 43% on threes. Flag is a better defender. He's a better passer by a little bit. He's probably a better all around player long term. If not now, I'm sorry that the rookie of the erase is open between those two guys and Edgecomb is as strong a third place finisher as you'll find and I'm not closing the book on him climbing up. He's been awesome. Be interesting to see what they do at the trade deadline because they are over the tax which is a little bit prohibitive but they have those picks to trade and if they got any kind of Upgrade at the 4, look out. Okay. Yeah.
- [62:41]
B
Kelly Uber has been out too.
- [62:42]
A
Kelly Uber is out too and Uber.
- [62:44]
B
Will fit in well when he's back.
- [62:46]
A
He, he fits in. That's what he does. Paul, Georgia power forward. By the way, they're plus 13 per 100 possessions according to cleaning glass. Maybe they don't need an upgrade there. Maybe just roll with this and see what happens. Oh, I know what I was going to say. That Knicks game, an example of Embiid fitting in. They ran the same play probably 20 times in that game and it was Maxi and Embiid pick and roll on the left side of the floor. No one else on that side. And as they're running a pick and roll and Embiid's rolling to the rim for the most part, he's not just doing the Embiid thing of I'm going to lope back to the three point arc. They're running that play on the left side. Paul George is curling around a screen or Quentin Grimes is curling around a screen in the right corner and then someone else is flashing up on the right wing to give Maxi an outlet. They tore the Knicks apart on that plate. Embiid scored at the rim. Paul George hit corner threes and the best one of all was Maxi came around the screen, hit Edgecomb on the right wing as his release valve. Edgecomb touched it to Embiid rolling towards the rim. Embiid dropped it off to Jabari Walker for a dunk. Those are the kind of plays you see those kind of plays, you're like, there's something really right going on in the ecosystem of this team. Welcome to our ugly home. Reddit is back for a historically hideous season.
- [64:03]
B
It's our 100th ugly house.
- [64:05]
A
This place is mayhem.
- [64:07]
B
That is impressive. And if these walls could talk.
- [64:11]
A
Do you cry a lot?
- [64:12]
B
I do. They'd have a lot to say.
- [64:15]
A
What in God's name is this pit? Don't get too close if you've seen the show.
- [64:20]
B
I'm scared of that. Ugliest house in America. Season premiere Wednesday at 8 on HGTV.
- [64:26]
A
There's still six. Okay, now we get into the who the fuck knows zone of the top five. And if again, if you, if you want to put Philly in here, fine. I got no argument with you. Who'd you have five?
- [64:39]
B
Orlando.
- [64:40]
A
Okay, so here's who we have left to be clear. Detroit, Cleveland, Boston, Orlando. I also had Orlando fifth. So we have the same top five. And New York.
- [64:50]
B
We have New York left.
- [64:51]
A
New York. Did I not say New York? New York. Orlando's fifth. They're fifth for me too. I think they could make the finals and they're fifth. I think they could make the finals because I don't know who to have real strong faith in above them for various reasons as like a no brainer, like that's a finals quality team. I don't think there is that team in the Eastern Conference. You can make an argument for Orlando at any spot in the top five. They are here for me for the simplest possible reason. Jalen Suggs is hurt again and I think he is the skeleton key for this team. For the Bancaro Franz Wagner fit, which is still kind of unproven. I think their defense, which is currently 11th, is going to be top five to six quality when healthy. They're 13th on offense. That's great. Banchero has been playing better the last week or so. I just, I wish I. And Anthony Black is breaking out into like a star third, fourth kind of player on both ends of the floor. I just wish I had any faith in Jalen Suggs to stay healthy, let alone anyone else on the team suffering an ill timed injury.
- [65:58]
B
Can we talk about Anthony Black?
- [66:00]
A
Sure.
- [66:01]
B
I feel like, I feel like people aren't really realizing exactly what's happening with Anthony Black lately. Like it's not that Anthony Black is, oh, all of a sudden this guy is starting to hit his threes and now he's becoming the really good role player that people would have wanted. His last nine games he's averaging 24 a game on ridiculous shooting. His playmaking is great. When he first came into the league, he didn't have the shot and he had the athleticism, he had the explosiveness, he had the defense. He had the size, he had the length. It was a bunch of tools. Maybe the most informative thing a scout has ever told me, and it completely changed the way that I look at players, is that every single person when they watch a basketball player has a bias towards tools. But tools don't matter. It's how you use the tools. So you look at a player who's long and athletic and quick and fast and jumps high and physical and whatever else, but if they don't use those tools to actually do anything, well, you're going to get deceived. And we see that with players all the time. And it's not that Black didn't do those things well, but he didn't do enough. He didn't use those tools well enough for us to really see stuff. When he first came in the league, he was like, I'm just going to use my size and my strength and my speed. I'm going to dart to the rim and that's just what I'm going to do. And he's like, he's like. I wrote on him last week. I compared him to a pitcher who just threw all fastballs and didn't have any sort of other bitch to add to it. And all of a sudden he's like, he's added a change up and he's added, he's added a pretty good sweeper.
- [67:37]
A
And like, can the Mets sign him to be in their starting five in this, in this scenario, in their starting rotation? Because it sounds great. They could use it.
- [67:45]
B
They could use it. You could be an Edwin Diaz replacement. Good luck with Devin Williams, by the way. He's, he's been really fast. He's been. Look, I'm a Yankees fan. I had to deal with Devin Williams. It was, it was quite.
- [67:57]
A
Fred, you're now banned. Enjoy your last appearance on Zach Low.
- [68:00]
B
Thanks for coming out. That's okay. It's worth it. It's worth it. I got to support the Yankees. Black has so many moves around the rim now. So many moves. I know he's been working, the assistant coach he works out with there is God, Sham God. And he has been working with him on all this kind of stuff. So he's got this really nice Euro step now. He has this awesome up and under which like, he'll, he'll jump, stop into the driver, then he'll fake up and then he'll, he'll, he'll go under. He'll do it against Biggs. He tries the little rondo fake. Like he, he has different moves around the Rim. And he'll also just have plays where he's like, oh, I'm just going to dunk on you right now or I'm just going to power through you and I'm just going to finish a totally normal looking layup as if there's no defender there, even though there was somebody contesting. But I'm so fast and so strong that I'm going to do it. Meanwhile, he's hitting tons of threes now and he's a, he's a very good defender. I'm like, watching him as, like, wait is. I always thought there was potential for Anthony Black to be become a real player and a good player on a winning team. I never really thought about him as like, wait, is Anthony Black going to be awesome potentially? And now I'm watching him like, he might become awesome. If he does become awesome, what the heck does Orlando do? Because they've got Suggs, who's a tremendously important under contract. Big contract moving forward. Bang. Big contract moving forward. Franz and Paulo, max contracts moving forward. Like, how is Orlando going to handle this? I know there are a lot of people in the league who are already looking around. Even before Black's breakout, there are people in the league who were looking around, are like, when right after they traded for Bane. I feel like everyone's reaction in the league was like, okay, is there going to be a Suggs trade coming? Because like, this team has second apron dangers and at some point they will have to move on from some of these guys in some way and if they're not good enough, then they're going to have to make a move. And if Anthony Black is really awesome, like, that just makes that process even more urgent. I am really curious, but for now, like, oh, I've loved watching Anthony Black. Oh my goodness, he can't come out of the starting lineup.
- [70:11]
A
It's one of my. That's why one of my favorite fake trades before I realized it was not illegal but very hard to do is ban Caro for Giannis with Orlando sitting more than that to get you honest. But that's off the table. Poison pill for Paolo. Anthony Black, All Star. Not this year, but Anthony Black, future all star, is officially in play. What's been interesting, and you mentioned how his combination of craft and power around the basket, I'm waiting for the team that just treats him like Rondo. That's like, we're going under every pick against you and watching the Pacers blitz him last time, like, I don't understand why you're doing that now it could be because teams have just decided he's too good for that. He's too good for that because if he knows we're going under, the Magic can set the screens lower and flip them and do all that stuff. And he's so fast and powerful that he'll beat us to the spot behind the screen and just go through us for a layup. It could be that teams have enough respect for his jump shot. Now. It's not just that he's shooting better from three, he's shooting more of them and more from above the break. And it's like a reasonable outcome for the Magic. What this means for their future of Suggs at 30 plus million, Black, Bancaro and Wagner on Maxes. The latter two on Maxes. We'll see. I mean, Suggs. I'm not sure how teams would approach Suggs in a trade given that, again, he's hurt. And for now, for the purposes of this power rankings, there's been so much scrutiny on Bankero and they found something with Bain, Black, Suggs and one of Wagner and Banchero. And I do think Bankero is making a concerted effort to make faster decisions. When he gets into trouble is when the ball stops with him. And that's partly his fault. And he'll sometimes go one on one against guys that are just like you. Going one on one from 19ft against Pascal Siakam is a bad outcome for our team, but it's also partly the Magic's fault. Like if the ball. If one action kicked to Banchero at the top of the arc and no one moves and no one sets a screen for him and no one cuts, that's the team's fault, too. But I do think he's trying to shave a little bit of that out of his game. The way for him is screen roll, make plays come off of. They sometimes run him off pin downs quick. Make the next play like you can walk into 25, 30 points playing that way anyway. I just don't trust the health enough to have him above fifth. If you add them in the top three. I contemplated them as high as two. I can't get to one with them. But the health is what it is.
- [72:42]
B
I think any of these five teams could win the east, by the way. Any. Any of the top five, maybe even. I mean, I struggle to say Philly, because I don't see Embiid just having it last for that long. Philly could beat anyone, but I don't know if they could be any three. But I think anyone in the top five?
- [73:01]
A
Let's get spicy. Fred. Orlando at five was I think the easiest call of these five teams and it wasn't an easy one at all. Who'd you have it for?
- [73:09]
B
Cleveland.
- [73:10]
A
Me too.
- [73:12]
B
This is not spicy at all.
- [73:13]
A
I flip flop Cleveland and a couple of other teams, particularly Boston because. And Detroit like Detroit has. Do I trust their spacing? Do I trust their secondary ball handling around Cade Boston has like I don't even understand what's happening here. How a team with no proven NBA big men is playing this well. But they are this good. And this, this is four. This is 34 games of them being the best point differential team in the East. And Cleveland, I initially had them third. I flirted with them at second because I've seen the ceiling and I know what it is with these four guys playing together. I just my, my faith is a little bit fractured. Garland again has lieutenant Better but not still not great. Like I'm not scared of Darius Garland when he has the ball the way that I should be. Some of the craft and change of pace. I thought about his back but he's not like blowing up as a scorer or a distributor really. He's been fine. He's been good. They're still going to be undersized at the Ed guard. They're not healthy like Wade's been. Wade's missed a couple of games. You know, Jared Allen was out with I think an illness yesterday or two days ago. Whenever they last yesterday against Detroit they lost that game to the Pistons who are obviously above them on both of our lists. Streuss like is when is he coming back? Is he coming back? Like what's happening with Max Sch. I'm tired of admiring his collection of baseball hats on the bench. Like is he going to play? I'm kind of glad that they have minimized. Although they brought them back yesterday. I just don't. I don't like their small three guard lineups. I don't like Merrill plus Garland plus Lonzo, Merrill plus Garland plus Mitchell. I just think it's too small. Lon has been largely not good for them. Tyson has been a godsend and has changed their season. I just, it just feels too shaky for me. The hunter fit hasn't been good. I just, it's. They're on paper they're better than four and I'm projecting this as they're like ranking going forward as their championship chances. I just can't put them. I can't put them above 4. My faith has been Wobbled.
- [75:27]
B
Yeah. I feel very similarly to where I'm like, I'm watching them, and I even watched them against Phoenix. I'm like, this kind of looks like the Cavs, like, last year's Cavs. This looks like the offense that could get anything. It looks like the Jared Allen that you want to see, too. Like, Jared Allen just, like, wasn't playing in fourth quarters for such a long time.
- [75:46]
A
It lasted, like, two games. It was great. Can I see it for. Can I see it for three weeks? They beat the Spurs. They had a great win against the Spurs. That was awesome.
- [75:54]
B
That's why. That's why I've got them at. At 4. Like, Boston is just. To me, like, Boston's just like, they did it. The Cavs are. The Cavs are honestly at 4 in theory for me. I'm like, okay, it's treading in a better direction. It's trending in a better direction right now. So I'm going to have them at four in theory. But if I have them, if I do, just purely off of results for the first 35, 36 games of the year, Cleveland has not been the fourth best team in the league so far this year. And with Boston, I just look at it, I'm like, no, they're.
- [76:22]
A
They're eighth.
- [76:23]
B
Oh, in the East. I'm sorry, in the East, Yes. I mean, I look at. I look at Boston, and I'm like, Boston's got the results. Like, Boston has done this, and we can talk about Boston. Garland's been better. I mean, I think ultimately what it comes down to in Cleveland is like, I really think it comes down to Garland. I really think everybody has underrated that guy's importance to their offense for a really long time. Donovan Mitchell is amazing. He is. He is their star. No disagreements, and he has been unbelievable the entire season. However, Garland is the dude who is kind of the heartbeat of their offense. Like, or maybe, maybe, maybe Mitchell is the heart and Garland is just the brain because he's the guy who's operating everything. He's the guy who's getting downhill. He's the guy creating corner threes like Cleveland was. Was creating bad threes in the early part of the year, they weren't getting to the rim at all. In the early part of the year, whether Garland played or they didn't, and Garland was having plays where, like, clearly the toe was affecting him. And if he gets healthy, I think that team looks a lot different. I think we're starting to see good signs of that. I'm just I'm not all the way there.
- [77:35]
A
Good, good signs again. Like he's been fine, you know, the last two weeks he's been largely fine. I don't know if fine is good enough to win the East. And even yesterday he had a. I can't remember if he took a hard fall or something where he looked like he. Something bad happened to his foot and then he shook it off and he was fine. But like 16, 6, 18, 8, 19, 6, 15 and 11, 12 and 1 assist. Like those are okay games. They're not earth shattering games. And going into the season, I did a podcast with Blake Griffin. I remember right before the season and it was just, let's bounce around. Eight big questions for the season and we had to cut it for time. And one of the ones I didn't end up asking him for time was do we get to the end of the season and just conclude Evan Mobley as a center? And I wish we had had that discussion at the time because you mentioned Jared Allen's fourth quarter minutes dwindling and like how much faith did they have in that conversation? It's just too many big picture questions right now. Could they make the Finals? Absolutely. I did not pick them to make the Finals before the season. I picked the Knicks. I'm going to stick with that pick and live with it. Just doesn't feel great. Okay, so we have the same top three in some order. I went and I don't feel good about it. I don't feel good about it. I went New York, Detroit, Boston. What did you do?
- [78:59]
B
That's what you did. 1, 2, 3 or 3? 2, 1.
- [79:01]
A
1, 2, 3.
- [79:03]
B
I went Zach, New York, Detroit. We, I don't think we deviated more than one spot on any team. New York, Detroit, Boston.
- [79:13]
A
Let's talk about Boston, who has a legitimate claim remarkably to the number one spot. I almost put them at four because I just, I'm just shocked. Like Nimi Keita is their starting center. They're starting at 4 is now Hauser. It was kind of Jalen Brown slash Jordan Walsh for a while. Now Jordan Walsh is coming off the bench. Minot has disappeared from their rotation. He played some minutes at the 4. Their backup 5 is either nobody or Luca Garza who is playing out of his mind. In the last two or three weeks, it just didn't feel like a front court that was going to be good enough to hold up against the best NBA teams. And it has been. And Kate has been unbelievable. They also have been basically completely healthy at the top of their Rotation, Pritchard White, Brown have been healthy pretty much the whole season. Brown, I think missed a couple games. At some point they're second in the entire stinking NBA and offense. I can't even believe how good they are offensively. They are the. They are the most. The slipperiest pick and roll attack in the entire league is Boston. Derrick White is a menace to society as the back screener in Spain pick and rolls. And for people who don't know what a Spain pick and roll is, it looks like a regular pick and roll between, let's say Jalen Brown and Kada. But Derek White is coming up the lane, setting a back screen on Keda's guy to confuse the defense, to give maybe Jalen Brown a free role to him. Except Derek White sometimes doesn't even set that screen. He goes up to set it and then he goes sideways and he's open for a three. They are so hard to contain on the ball. I just. I. They have a legitimate claim to number one simply because they have been the number one point differential team in the East. I can't believe how good they are. And I'll say this, everyone's been. And then the Tatum thing. Nerf gun to my head. I think Tatum's coming back this season. I don't know what that means for the Celtics. I don't know how he looks. I don't know if he wants to step in immediately to being Jayson Tatum. If so, what that does to the team instead of being like a secondary guy and feeling his way back in. Seems like it can't hurt. Like I'd like to have Jason Tatum in some form on this team. Even a sort of recovering Jason Tatum. I just. And. And everyone has been sort of penciling them in as a salary dump team and they may dump salary. I'm putting it out there. I think they might buy at the trade deadline and I think they should. I think they should look at. They have a lot of draft assets to trade. I don't think it's gonna be anything splashy. It may not even end up adding payroll to their team. I think there's a Simons for a big man trade, a spare parts and a pick for a big man trade. I don't know who the team is like what. Who the player is like. Would Yousef Nurkic off their team? I don't know. It's gonna be something unsexy like that. I think they're buying. I think they should buy. I think Detroit, who we will get to absolutely should Be a buyer at the trade deadline. Even though they're a young team, young teams typically don't get far in the playoffs. Yada yada. This is. This conference is so open that I don't even think those rules apply to a team like the Pistons. But the Celtics are just the. Maybe the story of the NBA season is. Is Boston. I think they're legit. And I think that big three of Brown, Pritchard White on the perimeter is just rock solid on both ends of the floor. And Jalen Brown. Jalen Brown's averaging 30 points a game, 51% shooting, 37% on threes. Should be in the conversation for first team all NBA if one of those spots opens up.
- [83:02]
B
Jalen Brown has been unbelievable. Just went for 50 the other night. Didn't win player of the month. Seemed genuinely hurt by not winning player of the month. Got the support of Joe Missoula for not winning player of the month.
- [83:15]
A
We have so many awards now. Could. Is there another stupid award the NBA can make up? We have defender of the week or month and coach of the bi weekly. Can we give him the semi JC Penny semi annual player of the month? Like what? Like what can we give him?
- [83:29]
B
Yeah, I think they should. I think they should have best Jalen of the month. Yeah, they should have pick. Best pick setter of the high holy holidays. They can do that too. We could. We could do a whole thing.
- [83:40]
A
Best number seven of the month.
- [83:43]
B
Best number seven. I would take best number seven. I don't know. Player numbers. Totally off on player numbers.
- [83:49]
A
Luka Doncic wins best 77 of the month for the 47th consecutive week. But Vijay Edgecombe might steal it next week. Jalen Brown brought to you by Kia.
- [84:05]
B
Jalen Brown. Jalen Brown has been unbelievable. Derek White got off to a really cold start with his. With his shot. And now it just looks like Derek White again is hitting a ton of threes and being awesome. I mean, the offense that Joe Missoula has set up, too, is pretty amazing. Like, the system is. Is unbelievable. I did a story probably a month ago, a month and a half ago about why offensive rebounding is so back in the NBA. And there is more offensive rebounding now. There are like 20 teams, 18 teams with an offensive rebound rate above 30% right now. And only a few years ago it was like five. Only. Only five years ago it was one. Teams are crashing the boards like never before, and they're crashing more guys and they're doing it stylistically differently. And the Celtics, dating back to ime Udoka as their head coach have been ahead of the curve on this for a while. Udoka has, or I should say Missoula, who was an assistant under Udoka, has like only taken it further. He's become obsessed with the science of crashing. And you look at some of their like wings off the bench, like you look at like Jordan Walsh and you look at how they use him. After a shot goes up, they're like, Jordan Walsh just go freaking crazy. When a shot goes up, you are going to go to the rim. You're just going to beeline there and you're going to get everything. And guess what? Jordan Walsh has been really, really good for them this year, especially at that. It's helping their bigs, it's helping their second chances. They're right now they're just like such an analytically friendly team, right? I mean they're just more threes than anybody. Top five, top six in offensive rebound rate. They're number one in turnover rate. Offensively, they just never turn the ball over. And when you win the possession game to that degree, because you're not turning the ball over because you're creating extra chances with your offensive rebounds and then you're turning those chances into threes like you are going to maximize and you have good three point shooters, like you are going to maximize your chances of having a pretty good offense. Like that formula is awesome. It's, it's, it's really good. I think they're just really good. I don't think there's anything flukish about them. And freaking Jalen Brown, like that guy saw a challenge in front of him and could have said this is going to be a gap year and instead is just so much better. Has just answered the call in every single way possible as a facilitator, as a scorer. His handle, which he's been killed for forever, is better. He had a spin move a couple of games ago which didn't even lead to a bucket. But I was like, oh my goodness, that little lefty spin around a dude. I was like, that was just unbelievably quick. And he maintained his balance. His balance has been unbelievable. Off the dribble, the ability to create shots. He's been amazing. I have an all star ballot this year. Like no brainer all star starter in the game. That doesn't make any sense. He's, he's, he's been amazing.
- [87:09]
A
And the talent drain that had me take the under that had me pessimistic about them relative to certainly this 22 and 12 the talent drain has not been a talent drain. Drew Holiday hasn't played in forever. Christoph Sporzingis has not played much for the Hawks. And by the way, the Hawks will tell you, yeah, we've struggled without with trade defensively. We know that. We want to see what Trey with a rim protector actually looks like, because a congu as good as he is is not giant around the basket. Yeah. Kind of should have factored in KP missing some games. I should have factored in KP missing more games than I did. By the way, just one last. Just to rub my. Rub my own face in the dirt on the Hawks, can we start talking about Dyson Daniels being seven of 57 on threes this season? Seven. Talking about that with people 12%. He. He made 80 threes last year. What? What? What?
- [88:04]
B
He's lost his confidence. That was a thing in New Orleans. New Orleans. The whole thing with him in New Orleans was he'd miss some shots, and then all of a sudden he'd be like, oh, missed the shot. I'm kind of out. Yeah. And then it would add hesitance.
- [88:20]
A
Yeah. When you're 7 to 57, I'm kind of. I kind of. I'm cool with you hesitating. It's not. It's not helping anymore.
- [88:26]
B
But I think it all. It all snowballs. It all snowballs. Like last year, he hit some shots, and the Hawks were really excited that they felt like he kind of evolved from that. And I think this year there's been some reversion because we see hesitance in other parts of his game. Like, don't get me wrong, defensively, he's still excellent, but I don't think he's been at the level defensively this year. He was last year. The steals and deflections, the defensive playmaking isn't quite there.
- [88:52]
A
The.
- [88:52]
B
The. Every once in a while, I'll be like, you know what? I feel like last year you would have been, like, a quarter of a step faster on that. I think there's just been more hesitance in his game overall. And, like, to me, with him, that always starts with his shooting. Like, he's just. He just gets in his own head about it.
- [89:10]
A
And, you know, and Horford is the other guy he's not played much for. The warriors played a little better lately. Talent drain just hasn't been just continuing the tradition of guys who get traded and. Or leave Boston, like, somehow flatlining wherever they go next. The only orange flag for Boston is they're shooting. They're number two in mid range shooting and is in part of that is Jalen Brown being sensational. Is is any of that going to regress and they're 27th and defensive rebounding frontline issues but that's been actually trending better. And Derek White I'm going to do my all stars again later this week going to do take a fresh look at it. He's going to rank way higher than he did a month ago. That guy is a sensational two way player. That leaves us with Detroit and New York. Who played tonight who played tonight Troy on a back to back I'm a little and New York's been banged up. I'm less excited about it and Detroit's missing Duran LeVert Tobias Harris so I'm a little less excited about than I would be. Detroit and Bill nailed this last week in talking about Trey Murphy iii. Detroit to me is the most interesting trade deadline team not necessarily because they are super hungry to make a trade. I actually don't think they are. I just think they should and that all common sense signs point toward them making a trade or or at least like nothing if they make a trade and it's it's always been market and is the guy that we've all discussed it's not going to be that the Jazz are keeping market and I think but I think I have been derelict and Bill reminded me of this with his pod last week and discussing sort of sub marketing deals for them. He mentioned Michael Porter Jr. Because clearly they need shooting and that's sort of reason number one why they are an interesting trade team to me. They just like they have this Asar Thompson question of like can we close games with him? Can we even play for a single minute A Sar Thompson plus Javante Green plus one of our centers or is the spacing just not good enough. They have Jaden Ivey seems like a lost soul there now who might have some appeal as sort of a second chance lottery pick guy. He's losing minutes to Dennis Jenkins. He's Marcus Sasser has come back and shot the hell out of it just feels like he's it's not going to happen at least this year and this year for me despite the fact that they're still young. Duran is 21 years old. Cade is still very young in his career on and on and on. Assar Thompson is very young in his career. Missed a lot of last season despite the fact that they have won zero playoff series. I just think this conference is so open and this team is the second best defensive team in the league. They're rebound like all hell. They're tough as hell to play against. I think they should be going for it. And this is just me talking, like, if I can get Trey Murphy the third for Tobias Harris and some first round picks, maybe three first round picks and a swap and Ivy, I'm thinking really hard about doing that. The three picks is a lot fine. They're my picks. I got to use them at some point. The rubber could meet the road with A Sar Thompson and Isaiah Stewart because I can see, particularly if it's New Orleans, given Troy Weaver was in Detroit and drafted a couple of those guys, I could see one of those guys being asked for. I'm not trading a star Thompson. I just think, like if you told me in a year a Sar Thompson's better than Trey Murphy iii, I wouldn't be surprised. The potential is too high. Isaiah Stewart's a tough one. It's a tough one. I just think this team should do something. I think they need to do something. They're number two on my list. So clearly I think they could make the finals as is. That's more about the east than it is about them. I just have too many questions about their offense right now.
- [92:56]
B
Yeah, I'll tell you this. I think they would think really hard about not doing that trade. They really value Tobias Harris as a veteran in the locker room and a shuttle guy stuff if they're gonna trade him. I think what you're saying though is probably the way they're gonna do it. I don't think they're gonna make some sort of move that doesn't contribute well to their future. Beyond stuff, I don't think they're thinking. I don't think they're thinking short term really at all there. And I think in the long run right now they kind of want to see what they have.
- [93:27]
A
And I also think a gargantuan salary for men for more than a year or two is a problem for them because they're going to have to pay Duran and they want. I think they want to pay Duran given how he's played. I, I just, I'd like it. I'd like an offensive upgrade who can sustain on defense maybe a little bit more than Duncan Robinson can in a. In a high level playoff series.
- [93:50]
B
Yeah, I think they also want to see what they have in terms of paying these guys. Right. Because Duran is up after this year. They were so far apart in contract negotiations this summer that like there weren't even really contract negotiations. And then A Sar Thompson is. You're going to have to pay some amount to because he's a really good player and you kind of have to see like okay, so. So a couple games ago against Miami, Tobias Harris is out and they start a lineup. They've been using a pretty good amount this year and it's been pretty good with. With Isaiah Stewart at the 4 next to during and they have Asar out there.
- [94:23]
A
Defensive player of the month Isaiah Stewart, by the way, put some respect on his name.
- [94:28]
B
He. That dude can guard that dude. That dude can guard. Isaiah Stewart allowing 42% shooting on dunks and layups when he's the closest defender. Crazy. By far, by far the number one, you know, shot deter or whatever we're going to call it in the league. And he was number one in that stat last year. Like he leads the league like by a mile in that. He's been, he's been awesome. He's been blocking more shots this year. Like kind of like Isaiah Stewart is like a sneaky six man of the year candidate even though nobody thinks he fits that mold. Like if, if six man of the year is somebody who just comes in and just fucks shit up in every way possible.
- [95:06]
A
How about helps you win, helps you win basketball games?
- [95:10]
B
Yeah, like he's just good. He's just really good. But that lineup is like okay. Duran doesn't shoot threes. Added low mid range jumper. That's nice. Doesn't shoot threes. Isaiah Stewart has been shooting him more and shooting him better this year, but he's not good enough to where teams guard him when he's actually on the perimeter. He doesn't help as a spacer in that sense. Even though he helps as a shooter. Asar. Not a shooter, Cade. That's the weak point in his game. Like you're, you're, you're playing with a bunch of guys with just aren't shooters. And the spacing I think is a concern in a playoff series. I think if we're talking about a playoff series, the reason why I have them behind the Knicks, even though I think they've been kind of better than the Knicks this year. I'm concerned about the Knicks defense.
- [95:54]
A
They've not been kind of better. They've been better. They're 26 and 9. They have the second best net rating in the east behind Boston. They're ninth in offense and second in defense. They have been flat out better than the Knicks.
- [96:04]
B
Yeah. And the reason why I have them behind the Knicks, I'm sure, you know, they're going to be Detroit fans or Detroit people who disagree with me, which is fine, it's justifiable. But the reason why I have them behind is, number one, the shooting, which I think that those kinds of flaws in a playoff series, those kinds of flaws really tend to show up and those, those warts get really, really, really painful in a playoff series. And number two, you know, the Thunder just won a title as a really young team, but like, to me, they're the exception and experience. They played the Knicks really close in a playoff series last year. If the ball doesn't go through Malik Beasley's hands, if there isn't a terrible call made on what should have been a foul on Josh Hart at the end of Game 4, like the Pistons might win that series. They played a ridiculously close series and physical series against the Knicks last year, and I think that shaped them a lot. But they're crazy physical team. The defense is totally real. The tandem that they have with Duran and Stewart is great. Cade has been, you know, an MVP ballot candidate and Duran is. I don't know. I'd have to think about it more before I say he is the leader for mip, but he's certainly right up there. Like, his game is, is totally different than it was. I think people discussed him as this awesome rim diving center when he first came in, but the reality is now he's like, he'll rush the ball up in transition. He's hitting that little midi. He's making passes to the corners out of the short roll and even out of the post. He's scoring around the hoops and his pick and roll defense like teams used to run. I talked to him about this recently for a story I'm working on that isn't out yet. But when he first came in the league, like, the MO on the Pistons was like, all right, let's bring Jalen Duran into space. Let's just pick on Jalen Duran. And I was talking to him about it. I was like, how did you react to that? He was like, it was the only. He was like, it's the only time in my life to that point I had ever been picked on. Like, Jalen Duran's this massive dude. He was like, I'd never been picked on before and it, it just, it sucked to have to deal with that kind of stuff. He's made himself into a much better pick and roll defender, defender in space, team defender, rim protector, just a, just a way better player. And he is going to make. I don't know what he's going to get this summer. He's going to make a lot of money. He's gonna make a ton of money.
- [98:22]
A
I've been a big Jalen Duran fan for a long time. I'm not surprised. He's awesome. Ron Holland, another guy that we we mentioned, we did not mention is a kind of a non shooter look I, I they make up for their lack of shooting with physicality, toughness, rebounding, cutting iq, all the stuff that translates to the playoffs, all the stuff that translated to that series against the Knicks, which proves something to themselves and proves something to me as an observer. Like there's something legit in the heartbeat of this team and about how they play that is problematic for the Knicks. And you mentioned that foul on a Tim Hardaway non foul on Tim Hardaway junior's corner three. I just don't think their offense is good enough, their spacing is good enough for me to pick them to win three playoff series but in this conference they could this is the last thing I'm going to say about the Pistons. I'm just, I'm going to predict it today. This is based on no intel. In fact, most of the intel is that they're going to be cautious at the trade deadline as you said, for lots of different reasons. I think they're making a trade. I think they're making a consolidation win now™ I don't think it's going to be big. I don't think it's necessarily going to be big. It may not even be Trey Murphy the third big. It may be something smaller than that. I don't think this roster is going to look exactly the same after the trade deadline and I don't think it's going to be like a little salary dump or this, this like just a tiny little trade. I think there's just they, they have a lot of guys who can play and if I think there's got to be a three for one kind of trade that helps them and if I'm if and I would be more aggressive than Trader Langdon probably will be in Trader Langdon is smarter about me than basketball by leaps and bounds so I would def him. I think this conference is there for the taking and that they could take it with one even like decent trade and it's there for the taking because the number one team on our list is the New York Knicks and they at this point with a defense that has fallen to 16th they are here now by default. For me, they, they are here because someone has to be. They are here because they are. They were my pick to make the finals and I'm going to stick with it. But their offense is 1000% legit. They're fourth in offense. I think they're probably even better than that. They've been a little banged up lately. Colec has cemented himself as a real bench guy. Yabu is looking a little better. I don't know if I believe it. McCullough's giving him good minutes. Like they're getting enough stuff off the bench. Beside, McBride is just makes every shot. They've got a lot of tools in their toolbox. They don't have a lot of trade flexibility because they're like at 50 cents under the second apron or something like that. But I have faith in their offense. I have faith in their toughness and I have faith in their defense to be just good enough. When Hart and Anunobi and Robinson are all healthy and the coaching staff really decides, how are we going to scheme Karl Anthony Towns out of pain on defense? Because what you're concerned about and what I'm concerned about is the teams that see him in drop defense and have guards and are just like, go, go, because he ain't stopping you. And then they're going to scrunch in from everywhere else and stuff's going to open up for us. And it's a concern. We all know that the Brunson Cat bookends of the defense is a concern. There's only so many ways around it. I do think the coaching staff probably has some cards in their pocket that they haven't played much of this season and that. And that when they're healthy, there's just enough between Bridges, Heart and Adobe Robinson, just enough to get by. But I feel less good about the Knicks as my Finals pick today than I did two weeks ago, a month ago. But I got to pick someone and I'm picking the Knicks.
- [101:53]
B
Me too. I'm concerned about more than just Cat when it comes to the defense, to be honest. I mean, I don't think their point of attack defense has been good at all. And I think it's a real problem.
- [102:03]
A
Well, they're small, right? They're small. Brunson's small, Kolek small, McBride is small. Like those guys all fight to varying degrees, but they're small.
- [102:12]
B
Yeah, 100%. And the problem is when you have Brunson out there is along with Cat, obviously, and you kind of have those two weak points defensively, I mean, your offense is going to be ridiculous. But Bridges has had to spend A lot of time as a point of attack defender, and he's been great off the ball this year. I think he's regressed a little bit throughout the season as a point of attack guy guarding his screen navigation has kind of regressed to where it was at last year in terms of the physicality on those. On those sorts of plays. Zach, you want to hear a crazy stat?
- [102:42]
A
Sure. I love crazy stats.
- [102:45]
B
There are two teams in the NBA, so normally, defensively, when you scheme things out, you're going to be like, okay, you got to pick one. You either want to take away shots at the rim or you want to take away threes. It's pretty damn rare. You're going to take away both.
- [102:58]
A
I know we're going.
- [102:58]
B
And it's pretty damn rare you are going to give up both. There are two teams in the NBA who are bottom 10 in the league in rim frequency and three point frequency.
- [103:09]
A
Can I guess the other one? It's the Knicks. I knew you were guessing. I want to guess the other one. I want to take a shot at guessing the other one. So I allow a lot of shots at the rim and I allow a lot of threes. Yeah. My first instinct was Charlotte, but as I recall, their shot location data is pretty good. The execution is not so good. Oh, boy. I'm going to go the Kings. I'm just going to default to the Kings.
- [103:36]
B
That's probably who I would have guessed, too. It's the Pelicans.
- [103:39]
A
Okay. Yeah. Bottom of the standings, kind of the same thing.
- [103:43]
B
That's not a group you want to be in the. The Knicks are giving up tons of threes. They're giving up tons of shots at the rim. And I'm wondering, like, like, how do they fix that? Because they. They have to fix that. You can't be bad at both of those things. And part of it is like, okay, Josh Hart's been hurt lately. And when Josh Hart plays, the starting lineup's been good out there. And he is such an unbelievably important glue guy for them in every single way. And he's been shooting well this year, which has just been. He's. He's had a great year. I think probably an even better year than he did last year. He's been awesome for them, and I think he'll be back in, you know, week, two weeks, something like that. It's my. It's my read on it.
- [104:28]
A
Hope so.
- [104:29]
B
Maybe the answer is you play McBride more with the starters because McBride is kind of your best point of attack defender. Against Smalls. But if that's the case, you're making expense, right? Exactly. You're making the starting lineup smaller. If you get rid of, say, heart, your rebounding is getting worse and that's a huge part of your identity. And on top of that, like the McBride with the starters lineup has not been amazing for them. And you kind of have to figure that part out. The other part of it is that we keep saying like the Knicks have to have Mitchell Robinson at full health. When they have Mitchell Robinson at full health, then like they're a different animal. When they don't, they're just, they're not the same. Mitchell Robinson hasn't been at full health. I mean, the rebounding is otherworldly.
- [105:15]
A
It's.
- [105:16]
B
It's going to be per minute. Like he's pacing to have the best offensive rebounding season of all time. I was looking at it a few days ago and he's averaging 12 offensive rebounds for 100 possessions, which means he's out rebounding 22 teams. Like it's, it's insane the way he's able to shake up a game there. But defensively he has not. It's not that he's been bad. He has not been bad. But when Mitchell Robinson's at his best, like what he was in the playoff run last year, he's an all defense caliber sort of guy. He's a really good pick and roll defender. He's a good rim protector, He's a great anchor. He's got great instincts. Everybody saw that incredible play against Boston the playoffs last year where he literally guarded all five guys on one possession and then ended it in a block where he took the ball away from Jaylen Brown at the end. Like he's just got talent and instincts just all over the place. And that kind of play has not necessarily been there. He's been in the lineup. They say it's load management. He's been dealing with ankle stuff. Like they gotta have Mitchell Robinson healthy and we haven't seen that yet. We haven't seen like true. Just a plus defense, a plus rebounding Mitchell Robinson so far this year and they, that that's a weapon they need. Like the Robinson cat lineups haven't been great and I thought they would be, but they haven't.
- [106:37]
A
I did too. I actually liked Mike Brown trying to start it at the beginning of the season and then credit Mike Brown for being like, you know what? We need Josh Hart. Josh Hart's going to start. Look, someone's got to win the east and we'll see. Maybe there's a sneaky trade they can make despite their lack of financial flexibility. I don't know what that would look like. We get Knicks, Pistons tonight, Bulls, Celtics and Hawks Raptors Relevant to this discussion, what would be the most the most hilarious outcome would be the Pistons beating the knicks by like 30 on a back to back and Pistons fans being like, see, we should have been number one. The Bulls beating the Celtics and Vuch going off for 55 points and 20 rebounds, and the Hawks beating the Raptors on the road with Trey Young, like blocking a shot from Scotty Barnes at the buzzer to clinch the game if he plays. And then on Wednesday we get the Bucks. Don't play again till Wednesday. I don't think they go at the Warriors. The schedule is about to get pretty hard for the Bucs. They've had one of the easiest schedules in the league. They are going to catch a break though. They have both their Denver games in the next couple of weeks when Jokic is going to be hurt. So we'll see what life looks like in the east in a couple of weeks. Fred Katz of the Athletic Must read every time he writes Cats and Shoot podcast on Patreon produced by Mets fan Andrew Claudio. No wonder it's good despite the host being a Yankees fan. Fred Katz, you're the man. You're the best.
- [107:59]
B
Thank you, Zach.
- [108:01]
A
All right, that's it for today's Zach Lowe Show. We'll be back later in the week, probably on Thursday as usual with another episode. Thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production. Thanks to the great Fred Katz for his time. Read all this stuff at the Athletic. Thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe Show. Have a great day. Must be 21 or over in President Elect state states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.