The Zach Lowe Show – Detailed Episode Summary

Episode: Concern for the Thunder? Plus, Eastern Conference Power Rankings!
Date: January 5, 2026
Host: Zach Lowe (The Ringer)
Guest: Fred Katz (The Athletic)

Overview:

In this packed episode, Zach Lowe, now hosting at The Ringer, is joined by Fred Katz to break down the current chaos in the NBA, with a specific look at the “wobbling” Oklahoma City Thunder out West, and a comprehensive Eastern Conference Power Rankings — not just for standings, but on Finals viability. The duo dives into team-by-team analysis (from 15th up to 1st), discusses trade rumors, injury impacts, developmental arcs, and which teams are real or just riding the wave. The conversation is rich with statistical context, signature wit, and plenty of candid "I was wrong" moments.

Opening Pulse Check: NBA Chaos and Thunder Woes

[00:00 – 05:08]

• Zach sets the episode: NBA is "complete chaos." Celtics running hot without Tatum, Sixers surging, Knicks losing streak, Magic optimism dashed by another Suggs injury. Power Rankings today: "Who can actually make the NBA Finals?"
• Thunder Talk: Minor slip for a previously dominant West team.
  • Thunder lost to the Suns, now 6-5 in their last 11 (including 3 losses to the Spurs).
  • Pointed out: Offensive drop — 20th in points per possession during this stretch, dead last in offensive rebounding, free throw/parade rate and half-court offense nosedived.
  • Injuries noted but not catastrophic.

Zach (on Thunder):
"They blew out the Blazers who are okay, beat the Zombie warriors who sat everybody... even their wins seem a little rickety." (04:28)

Part 1: What's Wrong With the Thunder?

[05:08 – 14:18]

• Fred's take: The Thunder's hot shooting regressed hard after an outlier month (43% from three down to 33%); players like Aaron Wiggins and Caruso cooled off. Young defensive stud Cason Wallace has plateaued offensively.
• Trade Deadline Looms:
  "I think if I'm the Thunder, I probably feel pretty happy this is happening now...they've got time to figure it out." (06:09)
• Who can threaten them? Not many in the West seem poised to overtake; Minnesota, Rockets, Lakers (not respected in top tier), Wolves tough as always, Spurs have Thunder's number.
• Phoenix Suns:
  Zach quick to shout out "tough, hard-playing" Phoenix — "I was very wrong about the Suns."
  • Impressive rebounding, defense, and surprisingly surviving with patchwork bench lineups.

Quotable:
Zach: "The teams above [Phoenix] better play well... they're pretty damn good. I was very wrong about the Suns. I can't believe how good they are." (09:56)

Part 2: Western Conference Shaking Out

[12:56 – 14:18]

• Golden State: Not rolling over, look for late runs.
• Houston/Minnesota: Houston can't afford to lose Shingoon again. Minnesota stabilizing after some drama.
• Lakers: Defense still a liability.
• Bottom line:
  "Thunder at the top seems like the only certainty." (14:18)

Eastern Conference Power Rankings: 15–1

Format: Each team, 1-2 minutes/bullet points — Metrics, key players, memorable stats, trade rumors, and roast/optimism.

15. Indiana Pacers

[16:18 – 20:52]

• Both have Indiana last: On a 12 (possibly 13) game losing streak. Injury excuses fading as more players return.
• “Gap year” tanking:
  Zach: "The best one year tank situation since the Spurs drafted Tim Duncan... just wait till next year."
• Fred: "They make me very sad...I loved watching them last year. This is what happens when everyone has to step up a notch or two they're not ready for." (18:23)
• Bright Spots: Johnny Furphy emerging, but young talent (Matheran, Walker, Shepherd) disappointing.

14. Washington Wizards

[20:52 – 25:29]

• Still very bad, but "playing better lately" (6-5 in their last 11).
• Alex Sarr:
  "Leads the league in blocks per game... challenges the most shots at the rim per game because he is basically by himself." (21:38)
• Trey Johnson:
  "Holy fuck, can this guy shoot...41% from 3 on super high volume." (22:26)
• Bilal Koulibaly: Defense on Giannis is a strong NBA comp; needs to shoot better.
• Trade philosophy: Sell off all veterans, focus on young core.
• Fred (on Sarr):
  "It's not just that he's a rim protector, Sarr is also a switchable center. And there aren't very many guys [with that combo]." (24:10)

13 & 12. Brooklyn Nets & Charlotte Hornets

[25:29 – 33:15]

Brooklyn:

• Improved defense, flipping defensive strategy (switching ~45% of ball screens).
• "They've won too many games" for optimal tank odds; concern among fans.

Charlotte:

• Fun young offense: Miller, LaMelo Ball, and Knipple a real trio.
• Defensive roadmap unclear; frontcourt shaky but young core promising.
• LaMelo's shooting bounceback noted, but fit question about keeping all three young stars.
• Fred: (on trio) "I don't think they're going to be able to keep all those three guys together... you're not near contention." (31:14)

11 & 10. Chicago Bulls & Atlanta Hawks

[33:15 – 39:55]

• Zach (11th: Bulls, 10th: Hawks). Fred: flips them but admits both bad. Bulls:
• "Depressing." Vucevic’s lack of impact, lingering questions.
• Bright spots: "Someone should try to steal Ayo Dosunmu.”

Hawks:

• "Can't defend anybody." Trey Young rumors (no trade likely).
• Nikhil Alexander-Walker: "Career year, but I don’t fault Wolves for not projecting this leap." (38:33)
• Both: These teams are locked in the Play-In–level purgatory ("Play-In Invitational").

9. Milwaukee Bucks

[41:07 – 44:45]

• Giannis's absences crater the team (-20 net rating without him).
• On-court with Giannis: "They're a straight up dominant team," but low confidence in supporting cast.
• "Spare me the 4-1 stretch" — wins not convincing, schedule soft.
• Trade rumors: Bucks seeking upgrades (Zach LaVine, Michael Porter Jr.), but without picks to offer.

8 & 7. Miami Heat & Toronto Raptors (flipped order)

[44:45 – 51:40]

Toronto:

• Elite defense: force teams late into the clock, "outstanding at leveraging wing size and scrambling."
• Offense imperfect; RJ Barrett "glue guy" (49:47).
• Depth of frontline a concern; searching for an upgrade at center.

Miami:

• Trending up. Bam/Where frontcourt experiment still awkward but improving.
• Fred: "Most important thing is figuring out how to maximize with all your best players together."
• Hero's role upon return is a storyline.

6. Philadelphia 76ers

[51:40 – 62:41]

• Past weeks: Everything looks rosy. Three straight wins, including blowout at MSG.
• Joel Embiid:
  "Looks markedly better than two weeks ago... for the first time all season, dunked in a game. His average time per touch is down, really fitting into the offense." (54:21)
• Maxey: First team All-NBA candidate if eligibility impacts (injuries, 65-game rule).
• Paul George: Thriving as the perfect supporting star.
• Fred: "Those guards just smack you in the face. Their speed is unbelievable." (57:09)
• Both: Cautious optimism, but trusting a rookie guard and Embiid’s health creates "nervousness."

5. Orlando Magic

[64:38 – 72:41]

• Efficient, physical team.
• Jalen Suggs’ health is the "skeleton key" — he's out again.
• Anthony Black:
  "He might become awesome... [has] so many moves around the rim now." (68:00)
• Young team, looming salary crunch, but "any of these top five could win the East."
• Paolo Banchero: Progress as faster decision-maker noticed.

4. Cleveland Cavaliers

[73:08 – 77:35]

• Trending better, but not fully convincing. Garland’s play "hugely important" — his health and impact are the swing factor.
• Depth, health, and small backcourts are concerns. Max Strus waiting to return, Hunter fit hasn't landed.
• Neither host ready to trust Cavs as clear favorites, but acknowledge talent.

3. Detroit Pistons

[78:59 – 98:22]

• Surging, second-best net rating in East (26–9), but spacing and shooting remain issues.
• Defense and rebounding are elite. Jalen Duren: "massive leap," (95:53) Isaiah Stewart praised as a unique all-defense caliber 6th man.
• "Their offense isn't good enough for full confidence, but the conference is [so] open..."
• Trade deadline:
  "I'm predicting they're making a consolidation win-now trade, not blockbuster but significant." (98:22)
• A Sar Thompson: Untouchable in trade talks; Ivy may be available.

2. Boston Celtics

[79:12 – 89:10]

• Overperforming initial expectations without Tatum ("I was very wrong" moment for Zach).
• Despite makeshift frontcourt — Nimi Keita at center, Hauser at PF — team is second in NBA offense.
• Jalen Brown:
  "Should be in the conversation for first team All-NBA if a spot opens up." (83:01)
• Derrick White:
  "Sensational two-way player."
• "They win the possession game" via offensive rebounding and turnover avoidance; shooting regression and bench concern minor flags.
• Possible buyers at the deadline.

1. New York Knicks

[98:22 – End]

• "Here by default" — no elite team in the East, but Knicks are toughest, most reliable.
• Offense is fourth in NBA, tough bench contributors (Colec, Yabu, McBride).
• Defensive slippage (16th) and point-of-attack issues concern both hosts.
• Cat-Mitchell Robinson frontcourt has underperformed.
• Stat of note (Fred):
  "Only two teams in NBA are bottom 10 in rim frequency and three point frequency allowed... Knicks and Pelicans. That's not a group you want to be in." (102:44)
• Hart’s return and health of Robinson key for playoff run.
• Zach: "I feel less good about the Knicks as my Finals pick today than I did two weeks ago...but I gotta pick someone." (101:48)

Notable Quotes & Moments

• On the state of the East:
  "This is the someone has to win conference. Somebody’s making the Finals." – Zach (01:01, 14:21)
• On the Thunder’s regression:
  "This is why it's really, really hard to go 73 and 9." – Fred (06:24)
• On the Celtics’ surprise dominance:
  "They are the, they are the most, the slipperiest pick and roll attack in the entire league is Boston." — Zach (79:39)
• On Knicks' defense:
  "I'm concerned about more than just Cat...point of attack defense has not been good at all." – Fred (101:52)
• On Orlando’s young core logjam:
  "I don't think they're going to be able to keep all those three guys together." — Fred (31:14)
• On Jalen Brown:
  "That guy saw a challenge in front of him and could have said this is going to be a gap year and instead is just so much better." — Fred (85:25)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• Thunder’s issues: 05:08 – 14:18
• Suns over-performing: 09:56 – 12:17
• Wizards young core discussion (Sarr/Johnson): 21:35 – 25:29
• How the Nets fixed their defense: 27:38 – 29:00
• Discussion on keeping Charlotte’s young trio together: 31:08 – 32:15
• Jalen Brown's All-NBA case: 83:01 – 85:25
• Pistons and need for a "win now" trade: 98:22 – 101:52
• Knicks’ defense and rim/3P stat: 102:44 – 103:43

Final Thoughts

• There is no clear favorite in the East; every team in the top 5 has visible flaws, and both hosts admit any of those teams (and maybe Philly) could make a Finals run.
• The West is slightly more stable, but injuries and unpredictability still reign.
• Boston, Orlando, Detroit, Cleveland, and New York make up a weirdly plausible "who could win the East" group.
• The trade deadline looms large for several teams in shaping the playoff landscape.
• The episode, start to finish, underscores “embrace the chaos” — and that, sometimes, power rankings are less about certainty and more about admitting how many different ways things could break.

Essential Listen For:
NBA diehards, league insiders, and anyone trying to get a handle on a genuinely open, wild 2026 NBA season.