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- [00:00]
A
Foreign. Up on the Zach Low Show. Howard Beck is here. What up, Beck? Giannis. Did he ask to be traded? Did he hint that he wanted to be traded? Did he suggest that it was maybe time for a mutual parting of the ways? Is that the same as asking to be traded? Something happened and the whole league has gone from a ground stop because of waiting on Giannis to a ground stop because the Bucks are now listening on Giannis and it's unclear if for when they're going to act or what exactly they want or who's really chasing him. Howard and I get into all of that. Yeah, you're tired of Yanis. You know what? He's at worst the third best player in the NBA this season and the whole league is talking about it has been stopped for it. So, yeah, we're going to talk about. We're going to talk about what questions teams need to answer before they dive all in, what this looks like this season offseason when the Bucks are even going to do anything. And then we're going to table Giannis and move on. We each picked Howard and I our biggest non Giannis X factors swing factors for the second half or last part of the season. Joel Embiid is prominently involved. The Celtics are prominently involved. The Orlando Magic still funky. A little funky. They beat Miami last night, but a little funky. I had an Orlando Magic X factor. Who is it? What is it? Why do I have them as an X factor? And the Thunder. The Thunder have one of my X factors. Interesting. Yeah, the Thunder 14, nine in our last 23 games. There anything to worry about? We dive into that question and who my Thunder X factor is, how the west stacks up. And we talked a little bit about that Houston, San Antonio barn burner last night. That was fun. The west, man, the west, it's different than the East. All right, that's all coming up after this on the Zach Lowe Show. Welcome to the Zach Lowe show live from. I think I'm at Bill Simmons house. What's going on? Howard Beck, how are you?
- [02:02]
B
I'm doing great. That's not a fake background. That's not a virtual thing. You are literally in casa Shay.
- [02:09]
A
Bill. Yes, I am. We did it. Phenomenal. We recorded a few things last night and now I'm recording here. This morning. I didn't sleep over. We didn't have a sleepover party and I did not break into his house this morning. We are in the hot zone, Howard. The check Your phone every 10 minutes zone. The trade deadline is one week from today and yesterday it was reported by Sham Strania at espn. I'm gonna read verbatim from the story. Sources said Giannis Antetokounmpo has informed the Bucks for months that he believes the moment has come to part ways after 12 plus years together. And so the NBA is officially on high alert. Everything had been ground to a halt awaiting Giannis. Everything is kind of still ground to a halt as they see what the. As the Bucs navigate the Giannis offer landscape. But I read, I mean, I'm going to. We've done Giannis to death. We're just going to do like five big checklist items. Okay, but before we do that. Has informed the Bucks that he believes the moment has come to part ways. Why are we doing this? Why can't we just say that he asked for a trade? Even today I'm reading coverage like, well, this is more about the Bucks taking offers and not, you know, Giannis. I'm not sure he explicitly has asked for a trade. Why are we doing this? This is so dumb. And why is everyone afraid of an ugly breakup that is never going to be ugly? This dude won a championship in Milwaukee, the first one in 50 years. He. He's been there a dozen years. He is living the natural life cycle of 90% of NBA superstars, where team rises, team gets old, team does everything possible credit John Horst, you can love him, you can hate the moves, you can do whatever. The dude swung hard and swung big for Drew Holiday and Damian Lillard. And this Miles Turner disaster thing that has happened, they tried, the team got old, they didn't hit on draft picks in the 20s because that's your most likely outcome. And now the team's bad. And this is why I never shut the door on a honest trade in season, despite the fact that we all know offseason is more likely because of the extension variable, which more or less serves as a yes or no do I want to be in Milwaukee moment, because teams like Miami, the Lakers, other teams have more picks that free up to trade in the summer. All of that, I never shut the door because if the team stinks, it stinks, and they stink. And now Giannis is hurt and here we are. But why are we doing this? Why do we have to do this? Strangulation of the English language and maneuvering. And then even Sham Singh has informed the Bucks for months that he believes the moment has come to part ways. Has other people being like, well, I don't know if he ever explicitly asked for what are we doing? Why.
- [04:54]
B
It'S A great question. You and I lived through the melodrama back in the day that was the Carmelo trade demand out of Denver which lasted many, many, many, many months. We, we survived the Dwight Mare, the Dwight Howard saga in Orlando which had so many bizarre twists and turns. We don't have some fun clever wordplay nickname for this one yet. The Greek freak show, maybe.
- [05:20]
A
No, I don't even want to. No, let's not, let's not even do it.
- [05:22]
B
I am just going to tell but I am going to call it this, Zach. And I'm saying this with hard to believe this is the number 29 years of time on this beat now covering the NBA. This is the most passive aggressive trade demand slash non trade demand in modern NBA history or probably all of NBA history. This is a passive aggressive trade demand where I don't want to call it a demand. I don't want to recall the request. I don't even want to say that I want to be traded. I don't want to say anything at all other than I'm really not happy with the way things are going and I might want to be somewhere else, but I don't want to be the bad guy. And look, we all love Giannis. He's amazing.
- [05:57]
A
He can't be the bad guy. He'll never be the bad guy. He's a hero in Milwaukee forever. How does he not realize this?
- [06:03]
B
I had the, I had this, this text exchange with somebody like literally like two months ago. I think about this whole thing because we were in whatever version of this cycle we were in, like he wants out, but he doesn't want out. And what's all. With all the. And this is somebody who's very plugged in there and who knows the landscape very well, who was basically just saying, yes, this is, this is what it comes down to. He just, he doesn't want to have to say it. Yes, he has concluded already that this is not going anywhere good. We, I mean this, we've heard how many different versions of Giannis saying, I only want to win championships and I only want to be somewhere where I can win championships. And then he starts talking about breakfast food with Sam Amick and simultaneous that.
- [06:43]
A
Interview and the other press conference after one of the many horrible losses the Bucks had were he says 17 different things where like, you know, I mean, I'm never going to ask for a trade, but I could wake up one day and feel differently. Just like I have breakfast and one day I want scramble eggs. I'm like, I think it might be time to just stop talking. Like, none of this makes any sense. You're reaching. Like it's sort of like gobbledygook Mad Libs nonsense. Like, just stop.
- [07:10]
B
If you are a, you know, a hardcore Milwaukee Bucks fan who never wants to see him leave and who does not want to think ill of him, Giannis has given you all of the material you need to to feel like this is not him. He's not asking out, he's not going to abandon us. But if you were anybody else, media, other NBA personnel who are following all this, it's not even really reading between the lines. It's the actual lines. And the actual lines are he has been signaling for some time now that this was not heading to a good place. He just does not want to have shams who is.
- [07:42]
A
Who has strangled the English language a little bit straight up. Says he's informed the Bucks that the moment has come to part ways with what does that mean other than ask for a trade? Okay, that done. I don't want to do it anymore. Okay, big question, slash checklist item number one. Should and will the Bucks actually trade Giannis in the next week? I've been on the phone constantly for the last two or three days about this very subject, and right now a week out there is including among potentially interested teams at least not a skepticism that they will move him by this deadline, but a, they're asking for so much as they should, but not even that they're asking for so much. They just are sort of trying to goad us into putting everything on the table. And if they don't get exactly what they want, blue chip this draft pick, that they can wait until the summer when all those teams that we mentioned have draft picks that open up when the extension deadline happens and he's guaranteed, he's on a guaranteed deal for next year with a player option for the year after that. So there's no time crunch. And so a week out, you do hear teams a lot of. I was on the phone with two GMs this morning who said, I don't think they're going to trade him. I don't necessarily agree with that because once the toothpaste is out of the tube to this degree, it's really hard to put back in. There's also a school of thought that because a team that trades for him now, despite his ongoing calf issues, would have access to him for the playoffs this year, that their leverage might be higher now the Bucks, than it will be in the off season. I don't know that one's hard to read because in the off season, not only do some teams get access to picks, not only does the cap picture clear up a little bit because contracts expire, but as I've said repeatedly, one of these teams in the west with tons of trade assets is going to crap to bed in the playoffs and exit much earlier than they want to and perhaps emerge as a suitor for Giannis. So my checklist question number one is will they do it now or won't they? I still don't know the answer to that question. I'm not sure it's a sure thing either way. Definitely if the chances were 9,010 that they hold onto him through the deadline into the summer three days ago, it's now much less than that. It's 50, 50, 60, 40, whatever it is.
- [10:01]
B
I still think they wait till the off season because there are more bidders available then because we have the lottery order set. By then we know who has not just one golden ticket, potentially multiple golden tickets. Right. Because there are multiple players in this draft who are viewed as franchise stars. And so, you know, if you're making this momentous decision that John Horse has tried to avoid making, just as the Portland Trailblazers tried to avoid forever making it with Dame Lillard, when the time finally comes, you better get it right. And I think that means having the maximum number of bidders and options and knowing what all the assets available are. So I still think it makes more sense. That doesn't mean it won't happen a week from now or within the next week, but I still think it makes more sense after the season. One of the things that people have raised about why the Bucks want to do this sooner than later is, well, to tank this season, you need Giannis not on your team. Well, he's already out for however number of weeks that Dr. Anadokumbo said he's going to be out for. Um, I don't know that we have.
- [11:02]
A
I think that estimate is going to end up, I think that he said four to six weeks. From what I've heard that's largely accurate. He's always had superhuman recovery timelines. But I, I, I've heard that they have not offered a timetable, which is also strange that the Bucks have not put any timetable out there. But I've heard that's largely accurate.
- [11:19]
B
Yeah, NBA, get on your teams about injury reporting rules, please. Giannis is going to miss another. The All Star break is in there too, but Giannis is going to miss a bunch of time even if he's still on the team, so there's that. You can always dick around, as all these teams do anyway, with like, oh, we're going to, you know, slow his recovery or he's not ready yet or whatever, or not playing back to back.
- [11:40]
A
Trey Young. I think the Wizards have added an injury to Trey Young's list. I think Trey Young now has a hangnail. He hurt his funny bone, he's got carpal tunnel from playing video games too much, I think, I think they're adding to the injury list. Sfima Haylouk Sumuhaluk I don't know if he fell down the stairs a couple times at his house in Utah.
- [11:58]
B
I just, I don't think it's a necessity for Giannis to be traded for them to tank. But also their tanking is of course complicated by the fact that the Hawks own the swap between the Bucks and the Pelicans right now. As of right now, of course, it seems very likely the Pelicans are going to have the better pick. But oh, wait, there's a lottery in this league and it sometimes really scrambles the results. So the Bucks could end up with the higher pick, which then they would lose in any case, but then they would get the Pelicans pick wherever that falls. But like, there's just too many variables here. Which again goes back to what I said. Like, if I'm the Bucks, I would rather know where my draft pick is, where the Pelicans pick is, which of them the Hawks is claiming, and who's got the other top picks in the draft. Because now I know exactly what I might be trading for, in addition to all the things you laid out. It's easier in the summer because of the cap. It's easier in the summer because a lot of teams will, will regain draft pick draft capital flexibility once we're past this draft. So I, I, I think it's, I still think it's an off season play that makes the most sense to me, but we'll see in the next seven days.
- [13:06]
A
Okay, checklist item number two. And this is where it gets interesting if you're a team that's bidding for Giannis and there are going to be a lot of do you have enough to win the championship this season if you trade for Giannis, given what you're going to have to give up to get him? And that's where it gets very interesting. Howard Beck. Because the teams that could affirmatively say absolutely to that question and theoretically have the assets to get Giannis, the Spurs, I don't think they're in it. The Thunder. I don't think they're in it. The Rockets have privately and publicly said all along they're not in it. They did that with Durant too, and they were not in it right up until the price dropped to where they could be in it. So I'm not going to disqualify them completely, but they may not be in it. By the way, brief aside, did you see that Rocket spurs game last night?
- [14:02]
B
I saw like the last quarter of it, yes. And I saw Wemby doing just stupid things, amazing things.
- [14:09]
A
That's going to go down as one of the landmark games of the season because a the Rockets crunch time woes on offense rose up again and, and it's, it's one of the reasons why I won't disqualify them from a big, big trade. Now the buck. The Bucks would surely want Sengoon or Amen Thompson. And I think the Rockets rightfully are like, we're not, we're not quite ready to do something like that yet. And despite all of their draft assets, I'm not sure they can make a deal that appeases the Bucks without one of those two guys. But it was notable to me for that reason and also for the reason that the Rockets very clearly tried to beat the shit out of Wembanyama. It was an incredibly physical game. They fouled him all the time. Some called, some not called and Wemby fell over a bunch of times. He got stepped on by Tari Eason and he was just like, I'm not retaliating. You know how I'm going to retaliate? I'm going to make you eat shit the entire fourth quarter. You want some lob dunks from Area 51 Stefan Castle? You want some shot blocks in Kevin Durant's face? You want some jumpers rained over your head? I'll bring it all. You hit me, I'm going to smack your ass. It was like a, that is a game we're going to look back on when the spurs reach the fruition of whatever they're going to be is like, that was an awesome moment. There was that possession, I don't know if you saw it, where Castle, who guarded everyone from Shen to Durant to Aman Thompson and everyone in between, was guarding Durant and bodied him up and bodied him up and bodied him up and Durant probably fouled him, but whatever. Durant rose up for a mid range jumper and as he rose up, here comes Wemby and it was Just like he blotted out time and space and erased Kevin Durant from the universe. It was terrifying. Anyway, those teams could affirmatively say yes, with Giannis, we could win the title this year. I'm not sure they're in it. The Knicks, my pick to make the Finals, Giannis's chosen destination, according to Sean's in the off season, they could affirmatively answer yes, if we get Giannis, depending on the price, we could win the title. I, I don't know their pathway to a Giannis deal. They don't have picks to trade. They traded them for Mikhail Bridges. I, I have it. It's doable. You flip this guy for picture, flip that guy for picks, Cat gets over here. It's just very, very difficult to do. And that brings us to the other teams who are, who have been mentioned. Toronto, I don't think they could say yes to that question. Maybe they don't care because you do get Giannis again for next season. Right. And. And we're like, they're solid. I don't know where they're going. Philadelphia, I don't think is in it. Atlanta, I don't think is in it. They could definitely not say yes, we can win the title this year. They're way below. They're below.500. The Timberwolves have been cited as a Yanis potential destination. I think there's truth to that.
- [16:48]
B
I do, too.
- [16:49]
A
Mark Stein reported this morning that Giannis's perhaps back channel, that Anthony Edwards is a teammate he would like. I. That would not surprise me at all based on what I've heard. That is, they don't have picks to trade. They've traded a lot of their picks for Gobert. They do have Jada McDaniels, who the Bucks would surely covet. I just don't know if I see a pathway to a deal there. But they could. The warriors, who will try like all hell to get Giannis. It can offer four first round picks, which is really three and a half first round picks, but first round picks attached to an aging team, if you unprotect them, those are valuable picks. That has to be Jimmy's contract, despite the fact that I think he and Steph would like to ride it out together. And the warriors would like that too. Or Draymond's contract, plus the young players, plus all those picks. Can that team win the championship this year? I'm not sure that you can affirmatively answer yes to that question. Howard, Beck, any thoughts on these teams before I mention a couple more?
- [17:48]
B
I agree. And I had heard recently, too, that Minnesota was definitely in the mix here, despite the, you know, in the mix from a Giannis standpoint and from a Minnesota interest standpoint. Whether or not they have what it takes to get a deal done with the Bucks is a different question. But I do think that they're involved in this. The warriors are fascinating because, yeah, I don't think there's anything that's going to save this season, and especially like even the outline of a Giannis, Steph and, and whatever else team, minus the stuff going out, their depth isn't great and Giannis is out for however many weeks he's out. So it just. But you get him. If, if, if, if you had to do this now, if this was absolutely going to go down by February 5th and you're the warriors and you've got the ability to do it using everything you just mentioned, then I think you do it not because you think you're in it this year, but because you want Giannis to go into next season with and you've got the off season to figure the rest out. And that's the thing. Like, I don't, I don't think there's a Giannis trade that is going to change May and June, June in particular, because of everything you, You've already laid out. I think that is the list of teams. I was told recently that the Lakers were a team to keep an eye on from Giannis's standpoint, just as another team of interest. But again, you know, there's a difficulty there in terms of, you know, trade assets. They're another team where, once the summer comes, they've got more on the draft capital side of things, and they've got more clarity once they figure out where LeBron is or isn't and where Austin Reeves is because he's a free agent. But, yeah, I mean, I think that's the landscape. And the other thing, just to go back to something you said in point one, no, Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma, these are not teams that I expect to be in the running for. Giannis. But what happens if the just shit goes awry and you get bounced in the first round? Like, weirder things have happened. And if you're the Bucks and you want just a Hall of Draft capital, of course Oklahoma is the first team you would want to talk to. Of course, Houston is a team you'd want to speak with and San Antonio. So, you know, look, the landscape could change. I don't expect it to, but the landscape could change. And April, May, June and maybe Suddenly the teams that have all the draft capital and especially other teams, picks, picks that could be really good because they're not the team that Giannis is going to. So I, I, I still think, as I say, the, the, the landscape could change a lot.
- [20:21]
A
Detroit could answer yes to this question. I don't sense that they're in it. Brooklyn, a team that cannot be dismissed because of their draft assets and their young players and their market, certainly cannot answer yes to this question, can we win the championship this season? And it's easy to poo poo this. And a team will talk themselves into pooh, poohing it by saying, well, who cares if we can't win the title this season? A, he's injured right now and he has a history of calf problems and he's missed playoff games in 2020, 2021 when they won the title, the Olympus two, 2023 and 2024. And so we don't even necessarily, you can talk yourself into, we don't really even care about this year, we're doing it for next year. And then the opt in slash extension, whatever comes after that. Which by the way, it should be noted, Giannis is going to have a lot of leverage in dictating sort of where he goes and no team is going to trade for him, I don't think, without an indication that he would stay there. And that's easy to talk yourself into. But this season really matters when he only has one plus one left on his contract, when he's 31 years old and you're trading a bounty to get him. I don't think you can just skirt over this question for this season. Which brings me to the most interesting team, and that's Miami. Ira Winderman, who has covered the Heat forever at the Sun Sentinel, is tremendous.
- [21:39]
B
Literally since the franchise's inception.
- [21:41]
A
He tweeted out, okay, let's theoretically say what's the Heat's best offer for Giannis? And he tweeted, hero, who I'm not convinced the Bucks want despite the fact that he's a Wisconsin kid. Wiggins goes elsewhere. But they get a pick for Wiggins and they put that pick in the deal. So Wiggins plus a pick, Khale Ware, Jaime Hawkes Jr. Rozier's contract, which is portable until the NBA says it's not portable, and all the picks, which right now I believe is two, but in the summer will be more swaps, whatever, and you get Giannis. And right now the Heat are after losing to the Magic last night, the Heat are 25 and 23 in the play in tournament, only two games out of not being in the play in tournament, only five games out of the second seed in the east. Five is a lot actually at this stage. That leaves you, if you do that trade, let's just take Iris trade and do it. Your starting five is Davion Mitchell, Norm Powell, Pella Larson, maybe Giannis and Bam, who have the same agent and they're great basketball players and they would make a fit work better than it might look on paper. But there are fit issues there. Your bench is Drew Smith, Yakachonis, rookie, Fontechio out of the rotation until recently. Jovic out of the rotation until recently. Some minimums and two way guys and no backup center. I don't think that team could win the championship. I'm sorry. And, um, and, and, and that's, I mean, which raises sub question big point number three is can you get someone else to come with Giannis it like Kuzma is not that good, but is he helpful? That's why this like Drew Holiday fantasy, that's been not fantasy but like possibility. Can you work it so that it's not 5 for 1, but it's 5 for 2? And then sub question 3 for a team like Miami is this big question number four, how easy is it to add to your team this summer immediately? Because if you say, well, this year we don't care about so much, we're not going to win the championship this year, but we're loading up for the future with Giannis. The future is immediate. Every single year is more important than the one that comes after it for your championship equity. And just as an example, if the Heat do that exact Trade, they have $145 million of salary on the books for next year, which vaporizes most of their cap room. You have a token amount that matches the mid level exception and that doesn't include Norm Powell, who's due a new contract. And so the answer is, yeah, you have the mid level exception, you have some tools, blah, blah, blah. But those are the questions you've got to answer if you're going to go all in for Giannis and this year is not going to be your year, you better be able to reorient your roster going forward. Now, the summer after that, the Heat could get to a point where it's just Giannis and Bam and cap space. And Pat Riley is one would say, a veteran of that kind of situation with Donovan Mitchell's free agency potentially there. And Yich, although I don't know how yokich would ever fit if I don't think he'll ever leave Denver. So these are the big questions. You know, it's not, it's not that. It's not that simple. And those are, those are, I think, the teams. I don't think I left out any other team other than a couple. We're going to talk about, talk about later. Any, any parting thoughts on Giannis?
- [25:02]
B
No, I think that pretty well covers it. You mentioned the Nets along the way. Like, yeah, they have a boatload of picks but like they just have nothing for him to play with and there's no point.
- [25:12]
A
But they're the team. How can we change our team this summer? They can do any number of things to change our team this summer. But if I'm honest, I want to know, like, I'm not going there on blind faith that me and Nick Klaxon are going to take over the world together.
- [25:25]
B
The point of the exercise for Giannis is the team I'm on no longer can contend for titles. I want to go to a team where I have better teammates. That seems pretty simple. And the Nets do not present that right now and would still have a pretty uphill battle to do that this summer. But yeah, they've got all the flexibility in the world in terms of draft capital and cap room and everything else and it is an attractive market. We'll see. But again, this is why if I'm John Horst, I want the Nets and all their picks potentially in the mix. I want everybody in the mix so.
- [25:54]
A
Well and the Nets have all those Knicks picks and if you're the Bucks, you could say, and you should do this with any team because the Bucks picks, if the Bucks can't get their own picks back, which are owned by Atlanta and Portland mostly or pieces of them. Which is why, as I said on Monday's show, this wild three way rumor between Portland, Milwaukee and New York has come up with Portland sending Milwaukee it's picks back for reasons that I just, I never found a deal that passed the smell test from Portland's perspective, why they would do that if you can't get those picks back. Another thing you can do, whether it's the Nets or whoever is work the. If you get a team that owns another team's picks, like the Nets own the Knicks picks, you have to, if you're Milwaukee, given your picks are swapped out in some years have. Well, I don't just want the Knicks pick or your pick. I want the right to the best of whatever picks you have in this year and this year, I want to effectively be able to swap up as many times as I can in as many drafts as I can if I can't get my own picks back. I'm trying to think if we missed any team. I mentioned Toronto, right? They also have Murray Boyles, who's good. Toronto is like the why the hell not team. If you don't think you're. You're that. If you don't think you can really do, you're good, but not good enough now and set up to be good, but not good enough for the next two or three years. That's a why the hell not? Like, why the hell Miami's kind of in that boat too, of why the hell why the hell not? But it's going to be. It's going to be fascinating to see how this goes. It's certainly going to make for an eventful week in Milwaukee. And I hope that Giannis had a good breakfast this morning. What'd you have for breakfast this morning?
- [27:31]
B
I had eggs scrambled, some bell peppers mixed in. That's. That's kind of a usual go to for me. I don't know if it is for Giannis because as you know, any given day he might want something different.
- [27:42]
A
We did mention the Hawks, right? And I said, I think the Hawks are out. I do think the Hawks are out. I think Trey Young would have been the handy salary to put in that deal. And I don't think Again, they are 24 and 25. You cannot responsibly if you're the Atlanta hawks, one game under.500, be like, yeah, you know what? We'll trade Jalen Johnson on one of the best contracts in the entire league or the potential number one pick in the draft. We don't even know where it's going to be. We have the best of two picks. Like, I just don't think you can do it. I think they play the long game. Okay, I'm done with Giannis. What else do you have to say? Anything?
- [28:16]
B
I think. I think we are Giannis out at this stage.
- [28:21]
A
Okay. Our next topic was going to be we each pick some X factors for the rest of the season that are not Giannis and X factors. Like, I want swing factors, I want wide variants. I want. This could be a zero, this could be a hundred, and it has to swing the championship race. I have some honorable mentions that I did not pick because I've talked about them before. Would you like to hear my honorable mentions?
- [28:44]
B
Would love to.
- [28:46]
A
Does Detroit make a win now? Trade Honorable mention.
- [28:49]
B
Yeah.
- [28:50]
A
Does Fred Van Vliet come back? Honorable mention? Does Minnesota make a smaller non Giannis guard upgrade, Kobe White IO Dasumnu style trade and then Aaron Gordon's legs? Those are my, those are my honorable mention. I've mentioned them a lot. Honor swing factors for the team. I will let you lead off with one of your X factors for the rest of the season.
- [29:14]
B
I mean this one is so obvious that it's stupid and I had jotted down all my notes on this before. We had like three more waves of reporting on Jason Tatum. I don't think there's a bigger X factor potentially on the board anywhere conceptually or otherwise for the rest of the season. I thought the most interesting first data point on this was he was on a podcast, the Pivot Podcast, which our friend Jay King over at the Athletic transcribed this where I thought this was really interesting. Zach Tatum talks about how he would fit in if and when he returned. This is before we get the new wave of reporting from Chris Haynes and Ramona Shelburne about him saying, eh, maybe I won't. But he talks about the fit about coming back and he says, quote that's something I contemplate every day. More about the team. If or when I do come back this season, they will have played 50 some odd games without me. So they have an identity this year or things that they have felt clicked for them and it's been successful. So the reason I bring that up is because one incredible self awareness and humility I think on Jayson Tatum's part. I love that aspect of it. Two, this does not happen very often and I was trying to find an analogy and it will be a strained analogy because I'm going to invoke the name. But when Michael Jordan came back after his first retirement and Scottie Pippen had become the man and like this is a different scale, different level, different players, different era. But like it it it's a decent analogy for what happens when the number one goes out the door and the number two becomes the number one and does a damn good job of it, right? Scotty leaving them to 55 wins the one full season and then Michael comes back in the middle of or late in the season and Scotty's whole role changes. He's no longer the leading man and Tatum and Brown have a lot of track record together as Scotty and Michael did. And it's a different kind of relationship. Jaylen Brown was MVP of the Finals like they have. They know how to do this and I'm not bringing this up for reasons of like, ego, whose team it is or all that bullshit. It's just more the fact that it's just human nature, whether it's Jaylen Brown himself and the way he's restyled, refashioned his game and and then having to adjust again. Whether it's Tatum having to adjust and coming back, whether it's Tatum just adjusting to his body while still coming back from the Achilles, whether it's just the fact that he's coming back to a team that no longer has Al Horford and Drew Holiday and Chris Aps Porzingis and Luke Cornett and there's a bunch of guys who are barely, barely playing last time Jayson Tatum was on the floor, who are now significant role players in this rotation, some of them starters. Nemiskeda so like I, I just think it's, it's a fascinating test case. If he comes back, he's waffling. But my gosh, like let's go back to our leading cliche of the season that the east is wide open. They're playing this well without him. If you can get Jason Tatum back, even at 80, 85% of him, as long as there's no risk of re injury, you know, why wouldn't you? And I think that changes the Eastern Conference race.
- [32:16]
A
He was number one on my X Factor list. Let's take a quick break before I get into my reasons for that. The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. FanDuel's putting you in control right from tip off. That's right. You get to choose your reward. Play it safe, go for it. Feeling bold. That's your move. I guess whatever your style, you're in control no matter how you play. FanDuel's giving you the power to choose your reward and own your game this NBA season. Head to FanDuel.com low to make your pick. Get in the game and play it your way. 20 or over in President select states or 18 and over in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in. Required rewards are non withdrawable. Restrictions apply including bonus and token expiration leg requirements and max wager amount seat terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling promo, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by ebay. On ebay, behind every car, in part is a story waiting to be shared. I read about this guy who brought a nearly scrapped 2020 Porsche Cayman. Okay. He rebuilt the whole thing, all with parts he found on ebay. I couldn't do that. Maybe you can. And now that Cayman is out tearing up the track from Toyotas to Aston Martins, eBay has thousands of cars and the largest online selection of vehicle parts and accessories. EBay, things people love. The east is wide open. I do think we just have to, just every time we say that, we should be required to say Detroit is seven games up, seven in the Eastern Conference. That's a lot of games. Yeah. I had Tatum as well. And I'll give the Celtics credit privately, publicly, they have never, ever pushed the idea that he was coming back this season. In fact, it's always been the opposite. It's always like, if he's ready, he'll come back. The fact that we're better than expected. They have, they're in a virtual tie with Denver for the number one offense in the NBA. That is one of the all time, crazy, unexpected accomplishments for a team and a coach and Joe Missoula and his staff that I can ever remember. They lost Jason Tatum, Kristen, Drew Holiday, it's Luke Cornett, et cetera, et cetera, Al Horford and have the number one offense in the NBA. That's crazy. So I mean, they've never, they've never pushed, pushed him. They're not going to push him. They will actually err on the side of caution. Tatum has Tatum and the workouts that he's publicized and all that, none of which have been contact. We're like five on five contact. Anything like that, as far as I know, has created the rumblings and the hope and the timing of the surgery that Bill has mentioned and all that. And as great as the Celtics have been, they're 29 and 18, I just don't think they can win three playoff series as is now, given how many unproven players they're relying on who are proving that, who are becoming proven to some degree they've had perfect health, almost no setbacks at all. And that rarely sustains for a full season. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn't. And you can see some wear down happening. Like Derek White's just been at a shooting slump for a month, basically. So I, I, I, I think despite the fact that it could create a is Tatum coming back to be the guy kind of thing, I think it can't help but, it can't help but help them if he comes back. He's a great defensive player. He'll, he'll, he'll have lost A half a step, a quarter of a step that he'll regain gradually. He's a great spot up shooter. I don't know how much he'll lean into being a secondary player, but he's a pretty self aware guy. If he gets on the floor and he realizes like, hey, I'm not, I'm not quite myself yet, or maybe he won't get on the floor until he feels like he is quite himself and then we won't see him till next year. I do have to say I take note every time Jaylen Brown makes a comment about basically like, yeah, man, you see now what I had to sacrifice. Like I've always been this good, you know, like, you see I've had to sacrifice stuff. It's just. I take note, I take note.
- [36:17]
B
Yeah, no, listen, I've brought this up before but you know, in previous years and you know, earlier in their partnership when there were rumblings about are they gonna stay together and this and that, what a lot of it had to do with the fact that folks around the league had, you know, were very aware that Jaylen Brown saw himself as a number one. Like he was a willing co star, but he was somebody who envisioned himself as somebody who could lead a team. And now Jaylen Brown has gotten that chance and has shown, fuck yeah, dude was right all along. He's, he's absolutely cut out for this and for a leading man role with everything on his shoulders and, and let's face it, not exactly like superstars around him, with all due respect to you know, the Derek Whites and Peyton Prince Richards and everybody else, like Jalen Brown has shown that all that talk and all that what seemed like maybe to some people bluster once upon a time was warranted. And it doesn't mean that this has to be a permanent state of affairs. It doesn't mean that he doesn't also have the self awareness to be able to reel back and bring Jason Tatum back in the fold. But he is putting up like career high usage by a very, very large stretch here. And, and he's just.
- [37:26]
A
Bill and I were watching the Celtics game last night just ruthless hunting these undersized guards and or below average defenders. I mean every, if it's crunch time like they played Portland the other night, every possession was bring me shade and sharp, bring me shade and sharp. And I mean you're going to bully him or you're going to send a double team, CJ McCollum, bring them to me. It's just, it's ruthless apex predator shit that he's doing right now, and it's awesome to watch. And I'm actually going to walk myself back a bit. I think the Celtics could make the Finals, given the state of the east, because someone has to. And they're. They're just playing that well. Like, they're that good. I just think their margin for error is. Is like, zero to win three straight playoff series, and. And that I wouldn't pick them to make the Finals, but they've been just really, really good, and I want to make sure I give them their due. I have another important Celtics take. You ready?
- [38:16]
B
Yeah.
- [38:18]
A
So I have a lot of teenagers in my life now because I'm a suburban dad. Loser. And my daughter has a lot of friends who have older siblings or older siblings and their friends. And we always joke that every teenage boy in Connecticut has the same haircut. We call it the llama haircut. Hat tip. My friend Karen, who coined it the llama haircut, where there's just a big puff of hair and it goes down to right above your eyebrows, and it's just like a ball of hair. And I don't know, she calls it the llama, so it's called the llama. I think Hugo Gonzalez is the first NBA llama. I think he has the first NBA llama haircut, and I'm here for all of it. And he's clearly ahead of the fashion curve, because the teenage boys that I know. Sounds like a bad phrase that I just said. The teenage boys that I know and I'm familiar with, a lot of them have the llama. They have the Hugo Gonzalez.
- [39:08]
B
I had heard this as the alpaca a couple of years ago.
- [39:11]
A
Aren't they basically the same thing? I think now the nature people are going to be like, you know, it's not a dolphin, it's a porpoise.
- [39:19]
B
As soon as I heard it, saw it, maybe saw an Instagram reel or something about it, all of a sudden, that's all I could see. And, you know, and it's just a.
- [39:27]
A
Flock of llamas running around everywhere you look. Who goes a llama, by the way, Side note, quietly, despite the fact that Darius Garland's been out, Max Rus is out endlessly, on and on and on. Cavs five straight wins. Blew out the Lakers in the LeBron homecoming game last night. Tied for fourth in the east with Toronto 29 and 20. And I've talked about the Cavs a lot. I will say I did read Dave McMenamin's piece where he said the Cavs would GLADLY welcome back LeBron for a farewell season. LeBron has not said whether he's retiring or not. He has to have the conversation with his family. I have ranked it several times on this podcast in the last six months. If I had to rank the three true outcomes of LeBron's 2026, 2027 season. This is just like, even no one knows. I'm just. I do my best to talk to people and read the tea leaves. I've always said, number one, farewell tour with another team, almost certainly Cleveland. Number two, retire. Number three, stays with the Lakers. That, and I don't know if it's 40, 31, 29, if I did the math right, but it's not. I don't feel very strongly about it, but the Cleveland romanticism has always been there. And people say it like it's easy. It's like, let's say Cleveland makes the Finals and they have a bunch of young, good players in their primes. It's not like you just. First of all, the money element. How much money is he going to take? How much of a pay cut is he willing to take? Cleveland has basically nothing to offer unless there's crazy signage trade, which I don't even think they can do. You supp LeBron in there. Like, it's not like he's like, all right, I'll be. I'll be Sam Merrill. I'll just run around and do stuff. But I did. I agree with Dave is well sourced in the LeBron camp, and that was interesting to me. Okay, give me your second X factor. I bet we have the same second X factor, too.
- [41:17]
B
I don't know. Cause I was. I was bouncing all over the place mentally yesterday as I was. As you after you sent me the assignment. But I'm going to. Please don't groan if this is not in your list. Here. The health of Joel Embiid and Paul.
- [41:34]
A
George, number two on my list. Forget Paul George. Paul George is fine. Paul George has played great for this. Played exactly as you want Paul George to play for. The Sixers hit nine threes the other night, which apparently is a Sixers team record. Joel embiId is number two on my list. But I'm going to let you. I'm going to let you. I'm going to let you finish.
- [41:50]
B
I'm going to let you finish. This is this. All right? This is at least like, 3% of me doing a, like, modest victory lap.
- [42:00]
A
My.
- [42:00]
B
My take last summer.
- [42:01]
A
Oh, no, don't. Don't you. The victory lap. The victory lap.
- [42:06]
B
All I'm saying is that, that all I was saying at the time was we shouldn't just assume that these guys are dead and buried. That we needed to at least acknowledge the possibility that in lieu of any additional medical information that there was still possibility of Joel Embiid, Paul George getting back to some semblance of who they were and that that combined with Maxi could be enough to make them at least respectable. That's all I had said. I, I, and I did. I think I boldly put them as a top four team in the east. And right now I think they're sixth and they're, you know, in shouting distance. They're also in shouting distance of falling into play in hell. Paul George explodes for 32 points the other night. Nine threes, tied a franchise record. Looking very good as a high level role player. Maybe mo. The most expensive overpaid role player in history. Who fucking cares? It doesn't, yeah, it doesn't matter. He's got my money. Not my money, not my cap space. Not great for cap management purposes, but who cares? He's super effective and he's willing to play the role off of Maxi and Embiid and Edgecomb and who else? Whoever else you want to put in there. I think they're eight and eight with their big three. But the 330, 338 minutes together with a 118 offensive rating. That would be fifth in the NBA. 111 or so defensive rating. That would be third in the NBA. That's a plus 7.3. That would be for net rating. That would be second for the season. They are middle of the pack in, in every facet offensive, defensively, in that rating. But they're, they're showing and Embiid is showing well. So we'll get back to the main piece of this. Joel Embiid looks a hell of a lot better today than he did a month or so, a month and a half or so ago, or in October, late October, where it looked like he was laboring just to like get up and down the court and wasn't going anywhere near the paint. He's still not where he used to be defensively in terms of paint protection or just lateral movement. But he's, he's a lot more active than he was and his, his offensive production is flirting with his old self like he's, he's a wrecking ball again. And his, his, his mid range shooting touch like, like his shot profile has changed quite a bit and he's shooting terribly from three. But he's been incredible from the mid range and it doesn't matter where he gets the points, it just matters that he's putting them up at a pretty efficient clip. And yeah, suddenly with a functional Joel Embiid, a MVP caliber, Tyrese Maxey, a super good rookie in an edgecomb and a very high level wing and Paul George Kelly Oubre is back. They, they look really good. They look really competitive. And again like yeah, Detroit, we should note as, as, as often as possible. Detroit has a huge lead in the east and maybe it's not so wide open but after them with the Knicks trying to figure their, their, their identity out again and the Cavs, you know, every so often they start to come out of it and then they slip again, I don't see why the Sixers are not given health in that mix.
- [45:13]
A
This is the best story in the NBA right now and frankly I never thought that we would see this again from Joel Embiid. For the season he's averaging 25 points, eight rebounds, three and a half assists a game, 48% shooting, 52% on twos. Not, not up to his standards. Fine. He's recovering from all sorts of injuries. He's played 15 of the Sixers last 19 games. He's played a lot of minutes in a lot of those games, like regularly. 30, 35. I think he's cracked 40 once or twice in those 15 games. 15 out of 19. So they sat him four times on back to backs. 29 points, eight rebounds, four assists, 53% shooting, 33% on threes, creeping up 57% on twos. I just never thought we would see this level of consistency again from him over even this many games and it's just delightful to watch. He there is still something of a stylistic, I don't want to say tug of war, just Maxine Embiid are built to fly or Maxi and Edgecomb are built to fly. Embiid is not built to fly. But Embiid is not in their half court. He's happy to let them run. You run like I'll hit ahead to you and I'll trail for three or whatever. In the half court. His time of possession like his touch time is as low as it's ever been in his career. He is happy to set screens, pitch the ball, set another screen, pitch the ball. He's posting up still and is a little bit more in the last couple of weeks and he's posting up like to pass as much as he is to score and it's just been awesome. To watch. No one can guard him in the now. The power game isn't all the way back. Right. He's not just bulldozing everyone getting to the basket. But if you look at his numbers, I'm looking at him now. His rim shots are up where they almost. They're sniffing where they were in his best seasons. 30% of his shots have come at the rim. This season that was at like 35, 37 in his MVP level play. Um, and it's. And, and it was much below 30% like a month ago. So it's rising. He's getting to the basket more. His horizontal burst is much better than it was a month ago. He can get from point A to point B on the horizontal plane to block a shot, to challenge a shot to burst up to burst toward the rim much faster than he could. His vertical bounce is still not there despite the alley oop he had the other night. His Duncan Madison Square Garden. Maybe that never comes back, maybe it comes back later. But he's been awesome. He has a legit all star case now. I don't know if he'll make it as a reserve because of the games played. I just didn't. I had kind of given up on this. I still don't have any faith that it can survive three straight playoff series. And if he can't, they can't make the finals. But every week, two weeks that goes by with him playing pretty much every game at a heavy minutes load that my lack of faith in that gets chipped away at a little bit. And it's awesome. Like it's. It's one of the best stories in the league. And with Embiid on the floor for the season, they're plus 6 per 100 possessions. When Embiid is off the floor, they're minus 2 per 100 possessions. The other team doesn't get to the rim quite as much because he's still enormous. Even if he can't jump, he's still enormous and intimidating. And their shooting percentage at the rim is much lower with him beat on the floor. So some of his defensive effects remain intact. I just think, look, he's a polarizing player. The health is what it is. I just think this is delightful. And yes, this is maybe as big an X factor as Tatum. If he can play like this. This is not just a feel good story. This is a real team that even if I don't have any faith that they can win three playoff series, that Embiid can stay healthy for three playoff series, they could beat Detroit in one playoff series. They could beat the Knicks in one playoff series. They could beat any team in the east in one playoff series. And that's scary for everyone else in the East. And I've barely mentioned him. And about McCain's playing better. Uber's back. They have trade assets. If they want to go after a power forward, I'm not sure that they'll find one that works. And Edgecomb is fucking unbelievable. Completely fearless. Very good on both ends of the floor. And when he plays well and shoots well, they're really hard to beat. Like, this is the best, maybe the best story in the entire NBA. I'm delighted.
- [49:45]
B
It's fantastic. And you know, you and I both know the Sixers quietly were insisting all along. We have no reason to believe that Joel Embiid's knee is something that is going to be debilitating or chronic or permanent. That we think that the, that there is some semblance of him coming back. He just needs some time. He, he's turning 32 in March, which look, he, he, maybe he's an old 32 given all the injuries and all the time he has spent on the floor and getting banged up and even coming into the league with back and feet issues and all that, but 32 is not that old in today's NBA in general. So I just, I always felt it was a little too soon to, to just kind of write him off, that this is, that this is done and people talking about, you know, should they like wave and stretch or whatever. A couple other interesting. Just kind of like data notes as I was scrounging around yesterday. Do you know how many dunks he has through 26 games?
- [50:38]
A
I think two.
- [50:40]
B
It's 10.
- [50:41]
A
It's 10.
- [50:42]
B
10 somehow.
- [50:43]
A
I guess he's dunked. He. Guess he's dunked more recently and I.
- [50:46]
B
Just haven't noticed per Basketball Reference on their, their chart. So I, I'm, I'm taking that for, I'm taking that for granted.
- [50:52]
A
I would take them as gospel.
- [50:53]
B
Yes, I do. Um, but it would be way, way, way down obviously for a guy who's, you know, obviously a power player. Um, his 60% of his two pointers are assisted. That would be a career high. So to the point of like him not being the same mobile shot creating ball dominating player. Yeah, most of, most of his shots are assisted at this point. His. We talked about the mid range shot being, being awesome 10ft in closer. He's down in terms of, of shooting percentage by about 100 percentage points. Like he's he's, he's way off closer to the basket and again like you, you see it like he. Because he doesn't have the burst and the lift. But he's still just a physical beast and you know, if he gets it anywhere near there, you know, watch out. And I think he's still getting a lot of that back too. Like assuming again everything is assuming health right now. He may only keep gaining in terms of mobility and lift between now and the playoffs. So I think I'm with you. It's fantastic. He's it once, once a superstar fades, we start to. It's natural to write them off and think we're never seeing that guy again. The fact that he can defy all that is fantastic. The Sixers are a factor and yeah, I don't expect them in the finals, but they're. You laid it out. They are going to be in the ultimate position of playing spoiler in the first round and maybe the second.
- [52:24]
A
Embiid is shooting 64% at the basket this season. In his best seasons that was like 75%. But again it's trending up as is everything Sixers and just a great story. All right, let's. I have two more X factors but we'll take a quick break before I get to my last two X factors. All right, I'm going to go now. Is that okay? I'm going to take the wheel.
- [52:47]
B
Hit me.
- [52:48]
A
X factor number three for me. So we had the same first two, Tatum and Embiid. And by the way, we should have mentioned with Tatum. Ramona Shelburne tweeted today that I don't know if she spoke to Tatum or source close to Tatum, but kind of that pushing back on the idea that he's made any decision to shut it down for the season that he's sort of taking it day by day, which you would expect. Okay, X factor number three for me. Jalen Williams for the Oklahoma City Thunder, who's been out for a little bit. Yet another sort of lower body thing. I don't think it's anything long term. The Thunder are 14 and 9 in their last 23 games. Underwhelming. Their offense in that stretch is 10th overall. Good, but underwhelming. Their defense is still number two overall and they only have only by their standards the third best net rating over those 23, 23 games. Would you care to guess the two teams that outrank the Thunder since mid December in net rating in the NBA?
- [53:45]
B
This is actually tough. Is Boston one of them?
- [53:48]
A
No, Boston was one of them until yesterday. The Atlanta loss took Boston down to fourth in that rating since this artificial timestamp that I'm creating.
- [53:58]
B
Is Detroit one of them?
- [53:59]
A
Detroit is one.
- [54:01]
B
All right. I'm really tempted to say Denver.
- [54:05]
A
Nope. Denver has scrounged their way to a better record without Yokic than their point differential would indicate.
- [54:10]
B
San Antonio?
- [54:11]
A
Nope. Wow.
- [54:13]
B
Look at me whiffing away.
- [54:16]
A
I'm.
- [54:17]
B
I'm. I think I'm stumped.
- [54:19]
A
I'll give you a clue. I'm afraid Bill is going to overhear this and storm through the wall of the studio like the Kool Aid Band. Celebrating.
- [54:29]
B
Celebrating. I.
- [54:33]
A
You lost Charlotte.
- [54:35]
B
Oh, I forget about his Hornets fixation. Wow. Wow. Yeah, that. You could have given me like 50 guesses. And there's only 30 teams.
- [54:45]
A
They've had a couple the two massive blowouts they've had, Philadelphia and Utah are lifting that up a lot. But hey, blowouts are indicative of potential danger and they're dangerous. Jalen Williams, I mentioned the Thunders offense is 10th overall in that stretch. Good but not great. And by the way, I'm not, I'm, I'm reading almost nothing into this. Like by their standard slump they've had Kayson Wallace miss recent games. Alex Caruso miss recent games. Aaron Wiggins missed recent games. J Dub we're talking about right now. Hartenstein's missed his most of this stretch and he's as I've said many times more important to their offense than their defense because it is rebounding and they're passing. They're playing these lineups. A.J. mitchell has missed a bunch of recent games. Like they're, they're just down so many guys and clearly just like we're taking it easy until with our health and our rotations until the playoffs that they're playing lineups like Usman Jang is now like startlingly relevant to their team. Barnheiser is playing a lot. Carlson's playing. It's just not their real team. Even with Shai and Shetland as Constance J Dub, it just has not played a lot this season. He's not been in peak form coming back from the wrist injuries, averaging 17 a game. His shooting is down and I'm just bringing him up for obvious reasons with Shay on the floor for the season, 121points per 100 possessions. That's better than Denver and Boston on the team level in offensive rankings without him, 108. That's bad. It's straight up like bad. But they're still winning the non shame minutes because their defense is so good and Interestingly, when you dig into it, their defense in the non shame minutes is so good because their foul rate is way, way down when he's off the floor. I'm not sure what that's about. If it's about anything, it's about the other players that are playing and Jalen Williams is obviously meant to prop up those minutes. One of the reasons I'm not super worried about any of this is with AJ Mitchell busting out like this and Chet making a little bit of a leap offensively, they should have enough offense when Shea sits with J Dub Mitchell and Chet all playing those minutes. And I think they all should. Or if not Chet, then Hartenstein for sure. I think that's enough to get by. And actually, in the limited minutes those three have played without Shea, they're plus 11 per 100 possessions. Again, most of that is offense is just so so. Defense is outrageously good, rim protection, free throw rate, allowed turnovers, all that. But I say this all to say the spurs are coming. I don't. I'm not sure they're ready to win three playoff series in the west yet, but I'm not counting them out. And they obviously have something with the Thunder, and Denver to me, is now a peer equal to the Thunder. What they have proven without Jokic and without a host of other guys is so astonishing and speaks so well of what they have going there that if they're healthy in full blast and it's why Aaron Gordon's legs are my honorable mention X factor, I think they're as good as the Thunder. I think I might actually pick them over the Thunder in a playoff series. Which is all to say the Thunder need the Jalen Williams who had so many big games in the playoffs that he was like almost neck and neck with Shea for Finals MVP for a hot second.
- [58:01]
B
I have a friend who will remain nameless, who's in the analytics community who has been tracking Jalen Williams is very puzzling. Like rapm numbers. Like, you know, the advanced on off type stuff.
- [58:18]
A
Is down by minus point two seven.
- [58:20]
B
Yeah, I, I take these with a grain of salt, but it's an interesting discussion on the text chain back and forth over weeks, but it's just one of those kind of keeping an eye on like this is weird, this is puzzling. It's like sometimes when the guy's a great offensive player but the net negative defensively, then you go like, oh, that might be what's dragging them down. What is. What's. I don't know. I'm just Bringing it up because it's interesting. I. The, the Thunder have firmly established themselves in the, I'm not worried about them as long as they're healthy in the spring territory. Right. But I also think, and it's fascinating to, you know, as we sit here on January 29th to consider this, that a month or so ago, five weeks ago, we were talking about were they, you know, going to break the all time wins record, can anybody beat them? Is there even any point to the rest of the season? And now you are saying, I think quite accurately, like there is absolutely a race in the west and the Nuggets are right there as given health and the spurs are I think arguably right there. And they do seem to have, I don't want to say they have the Thunder's number, but they, they know how to beat.
- [59:22]
A
They got something. They got something. Thunder wasn't the most recent one. They, they got a little vengeance, but they got something. They got. Well, what they have is a bunch of guards who can dribble at high levels, which you need against a hounding defense like the Thunder. As much ball security and ball handling as you can get and a dude who's 75 and just wrecks shit all over the place. Like all that is very good.
- [59:43]
B
The Western Conference playoffs are going to be fucking amazing. At least after the first round.
- [59:49]
A
Like again, the Thunder and what the Thunder have is the constant that no team can touch. Their defense is coming every single night. Shooting can come and go. They're bringing that defense every night. And when they amp it up and they start taking the ball from you, that helps their offense. They become very hard to beat. The defense is going to be there every night. The offense has had, you know, some stagnancy to it even when they were in their title run, even this year, just a lot of possessions where it's a lot of Shay, that's fine, he's amazing. Or when like Shane gives up the ball after a pick and roll, there's just not much else happening. There's not a lot of randomness. I'd like a little more randomness, a little more flow to their half court offense and having a second elite ball handler to unlock that or third, I guess you want to throw AJ Mitchell in. The conversation is like, get Shay moving off the ball a little bit, get a little more improv, get a little more like when I kick it, I'm kicking it to a guy who can really do something with it. So he's my X factor. Do you have another X factor or you wanted me to give you my last one.
- [60:47]
B
I had two others that I had jotted down weirdly. One of them still in the Atlantic Division. Is that what they call it?
- [60:55]
A
I don't know.
- [60:56]
B
Carl Anthony Towns is mood slash play. You know, he's always been a bit of an enigma and he's, he's clearly been struggling. And now we get the, you know, report this morning from Sam Amick that maybe Towns has not gotten over feeling like they, they were going to, you know, send him off in a Giannis trade in the off season, that this has been kind of eating at him. There's the, you know, Towns and Mike Brown, whether they're meshing enough and, or meshing well. There's, you know, James Edwards at the Athletic had noted this the other day that the last couple of games that they had won prior to last night, their best stretches were with Towns on the bench and, you know, a kind of a more defensive minded lineup around Jalen Brunson.
- [61:43]
A
Well, not, not only their best stretches, but some of the stretches to end close games.
- [61:47]
B
Yes.
- [61:48]
A
And crunch time.
- [61:49]
B
Yeah, yeah. Kind of an injury, though.
- [61:51]
A
I wouldn't. It's not, it's not like a thing. It's. But it's a few. It's a few.
- [61:54]
B
It's not, it's, it's not Nothing. He was a plus 19 in the, in the win of at Toronto last night.
- [62:01]
A
22 rebounds, the guy. 20 the league. And rebounding like he can't. Like, look, yeah, I've talked a lot about Cat. He's an easy target. Like two guys leading the league in rebounds, that counts for something.
- [62:10]
B
But in terms of X factors for the stretch, like, yeah, like, I've got an eye on the Knicks chemistry specifically regarding Towns and his production because those things are going hand in hand. And he definitely is a guy who, it seems like one tracks with the other when it comes to his demeanor and how, you know, whether he's feeling valued, whether he's feeling included, whether he's feeling, you know, whether, you know, there's that, that version of Towns that kind of awkwardly puffs out his chest, but you need that guy. And when that confidence and the, the, you know, just general feeling of, of whatever isn't there, it all kind of erodes. And so, and, and he's, and he's back in those same honest discussions for at least another week.
- [62:52]
A
What, what does it do to my declaration that the Wolves won the Cat trade if the Knicks somehow turn Cat and other things into Giannis? I think, I think I Then lose again. I don't know. I mean, I don't know if they can do it, but it depends what else would be involved? I don't know. I don't know. Give me your last one.
- [63:12]
B
The last one was just kind of a. This. I don't think this impacts the race, but I am at least curious what it looks like when Austin Reaves returns to the lakers. They were 19 and 10 when he went down. They're nine and eight since. Yeah, actually.
- [63:25]
A
I actually think the Lakers, because they have a negative point differential, as everybody knows, they've won a million close games. Luka looks good, but the chemistry is not there, et cetera, et cetera. Ayton is wildly frustrating and Dalton Connect demanded a trade apparently. I saw that reported yesterday. I don't know if Dalton Connect's trade demand trumps Furcon Cork Maz's trade demand as the most ridiculous trade demand in the history of the NBA, but kudos to Dalton Connect. They're still good. They're 28 and 18. They're still good. And they are missing Austin Reeves, who has probably been their second best player this year and a really good fit with Luca. You know, they're clinging on to fifth. Like I think everyone has sort of shoved them into the play in a little prematurely, but, you know, their point differential suggests that perhaps they should be shoved there. Okay, I have one more. You ready?
- [64:13]
B
Hit me.
- [64:14]
A
Franz Wagner, who's injured, not really sure other than maybe he really wanted to or the NBA really wanted him to or both. Why Franz Wagner played the Europe game or games. I can't remember if he played both of them off the top of my head against Memphis, but he's been out since then. Hope it was great for everybody involved and he's on here only because the Magic did beat the Heat last night. They are 40 against the Heat this season. They're 25, 24 and 22 negative point differential for the season. Their last best hope for this core that sounds a little dramatic, but I'm fine with it, is that their projected starting lineup of Bain, Suggs, Franz, Paolo and Wendell Carter Jr. Is plus 47 in 117 minutes. 117 minutes. That's nothing. They've played together in 11 games this season. Franz, Paolo and Suggs played 97 minutes total all of last season in six games. And I'm sure the Magic want to see that starting five and that fit before they decide anything about Jamal Mosley, before they decide anything about Franz and Palos fit together. They definitely took note as did Paolo. As did everyone. That the team looked a little crisper when Paolo was out. And I don't mean they were better, although they were. I just mean they looked crisper with a three guard lineup of Black, Bane, Suggs, Wagner and a center that works. And there's just a lot, there's a lot of funk here in how they've been playing recently, but there's also a lot going on. Palo's had a blah season. We all know that Anthony Black has had a great season. We all know that he's a starter level player. Jalen Suggs has been hurt for a ton of the season, as he is every season, shooting 31% on threes and makes, you know, a decent amount of money. 30, 30 and declining over the next five years. It's an okay contract. It's a good contract if he plays. He just doesn't play very much. And Anthony Black has established himself as a starter who's also going to get paid and they just can't pay all of these guys. Something about the dynamic of their team hasn't worked. And I think they are looking at Franz as A, their best player. I don't know what they think Franz is their best player and B, the potential glue that can make this work on the level they hoped it would work and if it doesn't, if he comes back this season and they're just meh. I think everything is on the table in the off season. Maybe not everything, maybe not. Trading Franz, I think like what do they do with Paolo? Do they have a new coach? I think a lot of it is on the table. So if and when he returns, I'm going to be watching the Magic very closely up to and including. Can they play the lineup of Black, Bane, Suggs, Franz and Paolo or is it just too small to play Paolo at 5? I don't know. Do they need a new center? They're just like, everything is in flux for them unless it all locks into place when Franz comes back. So that's why they're on my list.
- [67:18]
B
And the Magic have traditionally been, I would say conservative to say the least when it comes to. They're not a, they're not a blow it up team. They're not a make dramatic trades team. They're not a team I would ever expect in a million years to trade Palo Banchero just a few years after drafting him. But that may well be what the answer is here, that I, I've, I've been skeptical of the Bankero Wagner combination as it was And I don't think anything that's happened has, has changed that. And it's not just Bankero on his own. It just, it just seems like. And again, we can go back to, you know, all the on off stats that, you know, they're consistently better with. I think just Wagner, no Bankero, and very rarely when it's Bankero, no Wagner.
- [67:57]
A
But again, a lot of those stats get blown up when their best players are all together, including Suggs, who despite being an up and down shooter, is something of a skeleton key for their team. But we just haven't seen it enough. Like I can't build my roster on the dream of these 200 minutes that we have all together. Particularly when I have a rising guard like Anthony Black who's going to get paid as much as or more than Suggs on his X contract because he's been that. I mean he's been their second best player this season, probably behind Franz when healthy. He's been awesome. I think maybe better than maybe Bane, I don't know. Depends on your taste, I guess.
- [68:33]
B
But for and for a team that has been usually kind of conservative, not swinging for the fences. They made a swing for the fences type deal when they traded all those picks to get Bane last summer. So that was kind of out of character for them. But it showed how much confidence they had in the core and in bringing Bane into that core. And injuries or no injuries, if it doesn't work out this season and they are well below expectations in terms of their production so far or their, their win loss record, then yeah, I, I do think this is the off season where everything has to be on the.
- [69:02]
A
Table and I don't think they can save this season like they were a legit. Their over under was 50 and a half. Reasonable people pick them to make the NBA Finals. I did not. But I didn't look at that pick as like that's a laughable, ridiculous pick. I thought it was a little premature, but I don't think there's any going back to that world. I think this season is too far gone. There are too many questions to answer, there have been too many injuries, etc. It's too much, just too much funk. This is more about what does this feel like when their season is over and if it doesn't feel good, if it doesn't feel like they've figured something out in the last X amount of games that Franz played and presumably a first round playoff series, I think the teams could look, if not a lot dramatically different, like significantly different next year. All right, Howard Beck, real ones. What else?
- [69:49]
B
We got real ones. And story involving some of the bigger names in the NBA that I'm working on and still wrestling with my editor about when it'll run, but possibly next week.
- [70:02]
A
Well, that's a good tease right there, Howard Beck. Wow. That's artfully done. All right. You're the man. Enjoy Brooklyn and the freeze that is going on on the East Coast. Thank you, Howard Beck, everybody.
- [70:14]
B
Thank you, Zach.
- [70:17]
A
All right, that's it for the Zach Lowe show this week. Pending, pending news. You never know. I'm out in Los Angeles. I gotta travel at some point. You just never know what's gonna happen, when it's gonna happen. It's trade deadline week. We're in the hot zone. But as of now, that's it for this week. Thank you to Howard Beck. Thank you, as always, to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production. Thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe show. Must be 21 or over in President. Select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit MDG in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York.