← The Zach Lowe Show
The Zach Lowe Show
Play-In Reaction, More Playoff Previews, and Final Awards Ballots With Michael Pina
01:33:22
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- [00:00]
Zach Lowe
You're listening to the Zach Lowe show presented by FanDuel. America's number one sportsbook is the best place to bet on the NBA because not only does FanDuel have all your favorite player props, but now you can even check out stats and recent performance trends right in the app before you make your picks. Just download the FanDuel sportsbook app today to get in on the action. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the numerous resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 or over in President select states gambling problem called 1-800-Gambler or visit rg-help.com all right, coming up on a new Zach Low show. It is a loaded Thursday morning with Michael Pina of the Ringer. We're previewing Rockets warriors. That's spicy. Celtics magic. We're giving out awards. We're talking about fallout in Sacramento, Chicago and yes, the closed door, no recordings meeting in Dallas with Nico Harrison. That's all coming up on the Zach Lowe show. Foreign tournament is almost over. The real playoffs start in two days. Two days. We have four games on Saturday, four games on Sunday. Once the remnants of the play in is over, the real games are starting. I'm very excited. That first weekend of the playoffs, it's like an orgy of basketball. We have a lot to get to with the ringers. Michael Pina, how are you, sir?
- [01:24]
Michael Pina
I'm great. Zach, this is such an honor and appreciate you having me on an honor.
- [01:30]
Zach Lowe
Let's take it easy with that with the honor stuff. Okay? So Pino, we got a lot happening. We only have the tail end of the play and left the eighth seeds to be decided. We've got awards ballots due. I read your ballot. Did you have a ballot?
- [01:42]
Michael Pina
I did, yes.
- [01:44]
Zach Lowe
Okay, nice. Congratulations. That's a big deal. And we have the playoffs starting so we're going to hit the ground running. We got a lot to cover and we are going to start with the results of yesterday's playing games and Michael Pina. Sometimes by accident, the sports world, the NBA world provides just a delectable bit of poetry. Just a delectable little delicious bit of narrative symmetry that you just can't resist. It might be low hanging fruit, but it's delicious low hanging fruit. You must pluck it. And one such bit of poetry is the Sacramento Kings and the Chicago Bulls getting drilled in the play in tournament on the same day after essentially like almost trading mediocre rosters with each other over the last couple years. And I'll tell you right now, the first Amanta Sabonis to Chicago rumor I hear this summer, if there is one, if it ever exists, because God knows Chicago needs to figure out a long term center situation. I'm calling the league office and I'm saying, hey, look, people wanted you to step in on this Luca trade, okay? That's how mad they were. You got to stop these two teams from talking to each other. No more. No more of this. And they both lose in hilariously embarrassing fashion. The Kings immediately mutually agree to part ways with their general manager. People are fleeing the Kings like the Titanic. Coaches are like, yo, Florida State job is open. Can I be the assistant coach at Florida State? Can I be a GM of a college program? Is there anywhere else I can go but here with me and Vivek and Matina and Jeremy Lamb and God knows what else is going on over there. So I will put this to you. And by the way, there's pick drama with these teams. Chicago trades Zach Levine actually think an okay trade because what they really got was financial relief. They could not get off that contract and they got off of it without having to include a pick. They had to take the Zach Collins and Kevin Herder salaries. Fine, those expires after next season. They got their own pickback. The 11 to 30 portion of it. That was the unprotected part. It was top 10 protected via the Demar Derozan trade. They got it back and boy, wow, it really freed them to make a glorious deep playoff run in the in the daunting Eastern Conference. Meanwhile, the Kings owe their pick with top 12 protection to the Atlanta Hawks via the Kevin Herder trade, who somehow Kevin Herder's just everywhere in this entire discussion. They need some luck on the last day of the play in to have a shot at keeping that pick. Bobby Marks has the tweet up. Now they need Dallas and Miami to win, I think in the last play in games to jump them in the lottery. Just a sad state of affairs. So I will put this question to you. Which of these two teams is saddest right now? The Bulls or the Kings? Two years removed from the Beam team.
- [04:37]
Michael Pina
What a question. What a way to start. Which team is saddest? I think Sacramento is saddest right now. And it's really funny to say that because since the All Star break, they have the same net rating as the Denver Nuggets. And one team I think is a potential title contender that can win it all. And the other is just one of the more disturbing messes of morass in the NBA. But as you said, you know, they mutually parted ways with Monty McNair, their general manager.
- [05:09]
Zach Lowe
Who could have seen that coming? Nobody. I was literally talking to people within The King's organization 96 hours ago, like, who's going to replace Monty? What's going to happen with Monty? How much trouble is he in?
- [05:19]
Michael Pina
And just you have to wonder who would want that job? Who wants to take the life raft towards the Titanic and, and get on it? Who wants to be the head coach? Is Doug Christie going to be the full time long term head coach of this organization going forward? But fundamentally for me, what is so troubling, beyond ownership, which is something that you can't really do anything about, is just having Zach Levine, Demonta Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan on your team under contract as your three highest paid players next season. And I know DeRozan is partially guaranteed the year after that, but Zach Levine has a humongous player option that I would imagine he picks up. And so where are you going with these three on your roster for the foreseeable future? And when they were on the court this season, your net rating was -4.2. Your defense was 5 points worse than the Washington Wizards. So I just think that right there, when you just look at kind of what the core is, if you even want to call that a core, it's really difficult to overcome and to get over.
- [06:31]
Zach Lowe
I feel, I think the Kings is the correct answer and it's my answer as well. You just really, you really have to sit back and admire the unbelievable own goal of having De'Aaron Fox and Tyrese Halliburton and spinning forward three to four years and having neither of them and having, and having in their place a very good player in Demonta Sabonis, who, by the way, if you think the Monte Sabonis is watching all this happen to be like, yo, I'm cool. I'm just like so super happy to be a Sacramento King. You are not going to be correct. I don't know what's going to happen there, but there's going to be some conversations this summer between his camp and the Kings, like, what, what's happening here? And Zach Levine and DeMar DeRozan, who, I didn't mind that as a talent bet, but just hasn't really worked in terms of meshing with the identity that they had and then voluntarily gave up. And you know, they got other stuff for Levine. They got a fake first from Charlotte. That's going to be seconds. They got a Spurs first and a wolves first in 27 and 31, respectively. So we'll see how those turn out. But to have, I mean, the Kings, it's hard to say they run away from success because they've had so little since the Weber, Divac, Stojakovic, Bibby era. One of my favorite teams of all time. But the minute they taste any kind of success, it's like they do everything possible to sabotage. Like, how quickly can we fire our coach? Can we, can we fire the first coach since the one that we fired before Michael Mullen, the first one to give us some stability, Mike Brown? Can we fire him out of nowhere? Not, maybe not out of nowhere, but rather, you know, abruptly? And can we do so in a way that pisses off our franchise point guard to the point that he's no longer on the team? By the way, Sam Amick reported today, Monty McNair did not want to fire Mike Brown. I've heard the same thing. That's probably why Monty McNair didn't do any media about firing Mike Brown. And the whole organization left De'Aaron Fox out to dry and answered the questions about it. And it just begs the question, like, who to your point about who would take this job? Who's going to have the Juice? Who's going to have the decision making power? I've heard Calvin Booth's name. Calvin Booth. Look, his reputation has taken a major hit with all negativity in Denver. As Italian about. As a talent evaluator, I would stand by Calvin Booth. I think he's pretty good at his job. I think he's a creative thinker who's not afraid to take risks. But he's going to go in there and be like, so, so what's, so what's the deal? Like, who do I have to talk to about making moves? Is like, Vlad is around again. Um, you know, it's, it's, it's been a rough couple of years since that feel good team that I still would say if De'Aaron Fox does not hurt his finger. I think they win that series against Golden State. I was super impressed with their general sort of demeanor in that series. Their, their introduction to the playoff crucible. And then here we are. And it's like, yeah, they have, they have a couple extra picks. That's great. I just don't know. They went from an identity in a direction with Fox after the Halliburton trade. And again, Sabonis has been good enough that you don't just rue that trade every day anymore. But now I just don't know. I don't know what. I don't. I just don't know. I mean, I don't know where they're going anymore.
- [09:48]
Michael Pina
Well, they got Jake Laravia, Zach, so that's. I do, too. That's why I bring it up. He's the one part of my notes where I wrote I liked the Jake Laravia trade. That was the one positive part of this organization right now. I mean, you have Keegan Murray, who's up for an extension, who struggled a little bit this year, trying to reshape his game a little bit to accommodate the DeMar DeRozan edition. I thought not having Malik Monk has obviously hurt them, but at the same time, Malik Monk, who I think is really good, does not fit at all at the same time with Demar DeRozan and in particular, Zach Levine. When those guys share the court, the defense is a total disaster. So to going back to your point earlier about Sabonis and, you know, the conversations that he should rightfully have with whoever is making decisions for the Sacramento Kings, like, what is his market, even? And that's why I go back to just the. How troubling it is to have these three on your team, because what is the value? What is the market? Even if you wanted to shed one of them, shed multiple this summer and try to, I don't start over and build around Jake Laravian, Keone Ellis, like, I don't know what, what you do there, because as we saw with the Chicago Bulls, and I know that's a different front office with a different point of view and mindset and approach, but they couldn't get off of Zach laviner. They couldn't get value back for him. So that's kind of where I'm hung up on, on when I say that this team is just kind of in such a dark, dark place right now.
- [11:23]
Zach Lowe
So I will be the Sabonis defender. I get why people say, what value would he have? Because he's a known commodity in that, you know, your defense is going to have a ceiling with him in the middle of it. Offensively now, he stretched his range out this year, 43, 42% on threes, shot two a game, not, not much, but a little bit. But you're going to have to play a certain way offensively to maximize him, and you're going to have to play on defense in many different ways to sort of minimize his lack of rim protection. But he's a Very good basketball player. He's a very good floor raiser in the regular season and I think in the playoffs he would be a very good floor raiser too. I mean his durability, his physicality, his creativity as a passer. I think there would be a market for him. I'm not sure you're getting, you know, three firsts, whatever, two swaps and a great young player or two. But I think there would be a pretty strong market for him. And honestly, like I brought up the Chicago theoretical and not by accident, just like I could see those two teams, this is, I'm just making it up out of whole cloth. To be clear, I have no sourcing on this, but Chicago's biggest long term question is who plays center for us? Who are our big men? And I just could see them looking at a number of different directions, including calling the Kings, with whom they have great familiarity. But Sabonis has four guaranteed years left on his three guaranteed years left on his contract. 43 million, 47 million, 49.9 million. I mean, it's a lot, but he's, he's pretty well respected around the league. It's just, you know, it's just I can't believe that the Kings are here in complete organizational chaos. I guess I can. They're the Kings, they live in organizational chaos. But it has descended quickly.
- [13:09]
Michael Pina
It has, it's. And I don't mean to denigrate for the record, Sabonis as a player, I love Demonta Sabonis as a player, I love that type of skill set and I think you can win with it, but it's just very expensive and it's hard to kind of plop that into a different environment if you don't have the pieces around it as you. You alluded to. That makes sense.
- [13:29]
Zach Lowe
Well, I mean, look, he's going to be ballpark 25% of the cap as the cap raises up. It's not, it's one of those contracts that looks expensive and is expensive. It isn't quite that expensive. But let's go to the Bulls. The Bulls traded Zach Levine. Already talked about that. Did not trade Nikola Vucevic who has one year left now in his deal. It'll be an expiring deal next year. Had a nice flurry of fun, fast paced play and winning play. Finished the regular season on a 15 and five run before crapping out in the play in tournament to the Heat. Who don't mess around in the play in tournament, baby. They're not there. They're not there. To just play in the play in. I like how Tyler hero after the game was like, the job's not done. Yeah, I know you have another playing game. We all know that job's not done. Like, did you think anyone thought the job was done? No. Good game by the Heat. So the Bulls have the following players age 25 or younger. Kobe White, coming off a career season on a cheap, cheap contract. I would assume new who missed most of the last part of the season. He's actually almost exactly the same age as Kobe White. Believe it or not, both of them are 25. Josh Giddey, coming off a nice season for him. That trade is okay for the Bulls. You can quibble with. Should they have gone a different direction and looked for picks and all of this. But Josh Giddy's a good player. He's only 22 years old. Shot 38% on threes this year, which, if that is sustainable on even medium volume. Begins to answer the question of can Josh Giddy exist as a second or third option on a great team? Because I don't think he can be the first option on a great team, given his limitations as a finisher, as a shooter and all of that. And his defense. Pat Williams, 23. I think. I think I'm about done.
- [15:26]
Michael Pina
I think extremely tough.
- [15:29]
Zach Lowe
He is making $18 million a year. Matas Buselis, 20, immediately the most important and most interesting player on the team. Fantastic. Close to his rookie season. Jalen Smith, signed for some reason. Four years, 36 million. Doesn't play. 25 years old. Dale and Terry, 22. Julian Phillips, 21. I call them the do something twins. Because, look, I love a good 3&d role player who kind of does nothing but. But those things, I watch those guys and I'm like, so, so, so I watch them like, oh, they're the. The outline of like something interesting is here. Like, oh, okay, that was like a nice 16 minutes last night for Dale and Terry. I. He didn't play the game before. That was 16 minutes or night. Julian Phillips. Hey, you got in for eight minutes and, like, looked the part of a player. And then I get into like caveman box score guy mindset and it's like, oh, 0.0 rebounds, one assist. Dribbled the ball like four times. At some point you, like, have to do something. You have to do a thing with the ball. You have to put it somewhere, either in the basket or to. On the floor. Like, you bounce it off the floor, you pass it to someone who does something with it, and they're only 22 and 21 respectively. But they just don't do anything. So I look at that core and I'm like, Kobe White, he'll his next contract will be very interesting. Giddy obviously free agent this summer. His contract will be very interesting. Bouzelis is a cornerstone. Those two guys, White and Giddy are like good players. I don't know how good they are as as like building a championship level team. Are they second and third, third and fourth, fourth and fifth? I don't know the answer to that question yet. The rest of it is like I like I.O. fine. I think I.O. could be a fifth starter on a team that's just loaded with offensive talent around him. More likely like a sixth, seventh, eighth, ninth kind of guy who comes in and gives you really good minutes. The rest of it I'm like, I don't know what any of these guys amount to. And I guess what the Bulls really have going for them is potential max cap space in the summer of 2026, owning all of their first round picks, including this one, wherever it may fall. And just sort of giant question mark of what do all those young players actually add up to going forward? What's the biggest void on the team and if they can't fill it via insane lottery luck, which is always in play, how are they going to fill it? Are they really counting on free agency? Their record as a free agent destination is not recorded. Great. Although it's Chicago, it should be better. They've gotten some guys. They've got Pal Gasol, they've got meetings with lots of big guys before. Is is anything interesting going on here?
- [18:20]
Michael Pina
Bringing up Dale and Terry was funny because you're right, him and and Julian Phillips are very anonymous and to the point where last night kind of marrying the thing you were saying about Josh Giddy's three point shooting. I mean last night, first of all, like the Miami Heat, despite Giddy making 45% of his threes over his last 25 games, they completely ignored that number and treated him like someone who cannot shoot three pointers. They put Bay Metabayo on him, they sagged off and Giddy lost all of his confidence as that game went on in his outside shot to the point where Dale and Terry passed him the ball in transition and Giddy looked at the rim and did not shoot it. Passed it to Vuch, Vuch passed it to Terry on a cut and Terry got his shot blocked. And I put this in my notes, but Dale and Terry then looked at Josh Giddey and clapped angrily for at Giddy for not shooting the ball and that was the most emotion and I guess the just the most notable thing that Dalen Terry has done this season when I watched the Chicago Bulls play. But I think just for me it's a question of what is the strategy for this organization. Do you seriously want to build from the middle and make the play in every year? Resign Giddy, give Kobe White the extension. Have that be your very pricey backcourt. Hope Modest Bouzelis evolves into someone who I think can be an all star type of player. I really love everything that I see out of him as a rookie. He was on my first team all rookie team which is an incredible honor, especially this year. As you know Zach, I had him.
- [20:05]
Zach Lowe
On I don't have a ballot. He was on my I see you smiling. He was on my second team. I had the first. The last first spot came down to Khaleel Ware and Matas. We're going to sprinkle in my awards. I've made my official choices which are not officially on the ballot.
- [20:21]
Michael Pina
I can't wait to hear them.
- [20:22]
Zach Lowe
Let's just do rookies right now. Since we're on the topic. We're going to do rookies. Put the rookie of the year in the rookie all rookie graphic up. My first and second team have not changed since I did this on the pod last week. First team Castle, Risache Wells, Edie Ware Second team Saar Filipowski, Bouzelis, Clingan Mece. Apologies to lots of people that I've already apologized to and my rookie of the year ballot after much thought would go 1 castle 2 wells 3 recesses. I've already done the podcast. I am not going to justify it any further. That's my choice. Not particularly excited about it but on Boozelis let's say he hits his absolute ceiling, which we don't even know what that is now because he had such an intriguing last part of the year. But I'm just going to posit that his absolute ceiling is like A plus number two option on a great team. Like. Like all star. Like that. That's an all star player. Like an A plus do it all power forward option on a great team that needs a number one option ball handler type on his level or slightly above if you're really going to contend that's an amazing outcome for the 11th pick. If that's happened. Let's just posit that I still don't really know what the rest of this like if we reach sell high point time on Kobe White I don't even know because his next contract, frankly, scares me a little bit. He's eligible for. He's going to be extension eligible in a year, I think, but he's not. Maybe even now, I can't remember what. The exact rule next season, I think. Yeah, but. But the money doesn't make any sense for him to be extended. He. He makes too little now for the extension rules to really apply to him. Giddy's contract is going to be big. I know they have all the leverage of restricted free agency. The Bulls have not been a team that has used any kind of leverage particularly effectively in any of their negotiations with their own players or acquiring players, which is fine. Like, it's just. I remember people hammered them for paying DeRozan when he appeared to have no markets. Like, guys just get paid. Guys of a certain stature just get paid. It's sort of the politeness of the league. You just, like, they're not going to just lowball Josh Giddey ridiculously, because they can. They might squeeze a little, but, I mean, I don't know. We'll. We'll see where they go. I. I just. The questions obviously outnumber the answers because the. The best answer they have is Bouzelis and whatever comes of White and Giddy, and I don't know exactly what that adds up to quite yet.
- [22:45]
Michael Pina
So, I mean, that just kind of gets back to my fundamental problem here, which is just like, what is the strategy? Because publicly Arturos Karovis keeps saying he does not want to be mediocre, he does not want to be in the middle. And yet every single season this team is in the play in. And so when are you going to actually take steps as an organization, as a front office to like, bottom out? You know, like, not dumping Booch was kind of. I don't know what you're expecting to get back for him where you don't see something. I know there was talk with the Golden State warriors that kind of disintegrated after the Jimmy Butler trade. That could have been something, but, like, dump Fuchs this summer. You know, play Patrick Williams 38 minutes a game next year and just like, be as bad as possible and try to actually get that cornerstone pie sides modest bou zealous that you're referring to in the draft. I mean, that's. You can't really do anything if you're constantly picking 10th or 11th or 12th. It's wonderful that they have all their own draft picks, and that gives you a lot of versatility going Forward, for sure. But it's just, it's going to be really tough, particularly with Giddy and if Giddy, who I have grown fond of, the more I watch the Chicago Bulls play, to be honest with you. But I do think at the same time, when push comes to shove and you're actually to be a competitive team, the three point shot is really worrisome. And his ability to complement an actual All Star is a big question mark, particularly if you're paying him a ton. So, yeah, it's just they're not as depressing as the Sacramento Kings, which I guess you could put on a banner and hang it in the arena, but it's pretty bad there. It's pretty bad.
- [24:36]
Zach Lowe
Can I throw one at you?
- [24:38]
Michael Pina
Sure.
- [24:42]
Zach Lowe
It's not a very bullsy move. It is a ballsy move, but it's not a bullsy move. You have any, any, any interest in Zion Williamson? If you're the Chicago Bulls making a.
- [24:53]
Michael Pina
Couple calls, you're talking my language now. This is, this is what I'm talking about. I would love that. Like, what is, what is wrong with that?
- [25:00]
Zach Lowe
Obviously there's a guy can tell you what's wrong with that. He doesn't play.
- [25:04]
Michael Pina
I understand the downside for sure, but I feel like when you're in an organization that has been just so dispiriting for over a decade, I feel like taking a chance on someone who is an obvious, like all NBA talent when he is healthy enough to play and can do things on a basketball court that I, you know, I have, I can count on my hand the number of players who have been able to do. And that's if you can acquire that talent and bring it in. I think that that's a gamble worth taking it for the Chicago Bulls when the opportunity cost is we do nothing and we are either mediocre or depressing for another decade. I don't know. I think that that's worth it.
- [25:47]
Zach Lowe
Whatever happens, the Bulls will always have the first 35 games of the 21, 22 season when Lonzo was healthy and the team was 26 and 10 and everything looked great. They have clung tenaciously to those 36 games. Not, not as tenaciously as Nico Harrison has clung to two and a half quarters of basketball where Kyrie Irving and Anthony Davis played at once against the Houston Rockets. And boy, you could see it. You could see it in those two and a half quarters of one game, you could see it. We must address the no cameras, no recorders. You can only write with your weak hand. In an old school reporter's notebook media roundtable according to shams orchestrated by Patrick Dumont. The rules at least orchestrated by Patrick Dumont. Which again I would just reiterate, just no more PR for Patrick Dumont. Just, just immediately you are setting the whole thing up to be lambasted as a humiliation and a failure like nothing has even been said. And by setting these insane rules you have already shot the thing in the foot to the point of no return. A bunch of media were there. Nico Harrison said a lot of things about the Luka Doncic trade centering around the mantra of defense wins championships. Which is what I said to the 11 to 13 year old water polo team I coached in the mid to late 90s when I was trying to get a bunch of 11 to 13 year olds who only wanted to score goals to play defense. Defense wins. Offense sells tickets. Defense wins championship. That, that went over amazingly with the middle school crowd. They're like that's it all. Yeah, I like that. And did not really answer Tim McMahon's pointed questions about so you traded 25 for 31 age wise to set up a short term contention window. Yet you keep saying this is also a long term move. And yet to build the team that already went to the finals you traded all our draft picks from 2027 to 2030. But when we get there, Kyrie is going to be older, AD is going to be older. Luka is going to still be in his prime. Luka was the insurance policy against those picks batting him out. He is now the insurance policy for the Lakers. What? Just reading these quotes, anything resonate with you?
- [28:16]
Michael Pina
I actually wrote down every time he said defense wins championships in the context of the sentence. I'm not going to read them all here. But the last one I thought was really funny because he said it last after he said it five times already. Quote. I think the biggest misunderstanding of why this trade happened is that we feel that defense wins championships. So that's the sixth time you said defense wins championships. Contextualizes it's a misunderstanding that no one gets it. That's why you did it. I think that everyone understands defense is important to you and to the Dallas Mavericks. Now I, I mean it's. It, it all just goes back to trying to explain and justify a trade that has no explanation and no justification particularly for how it went down and the fact that Anthony Davis was so. They were so locked in on Anthony Davis as the two way centerpiece, the all NBA player who also is all an all defensive team member. To which I say why didn't you call the Milwaukee Bucks about Yana Santa Kouno, who also fits that bill and is better?
- [29:28]
Zach Lowe
But maybe they did.
- [29:30]
Michael Pina
Maybe they did. But I just thought that a lot of this was, you know, astonishing and the, it's a small sample size, but we're clearly a dominant defensive team when we have Kyrie Irving, Klay Thompson, P.J. washington, Anthony Davis and Derek Lively on the court. And I, you know, no disrespect to Kyrie or Clay, but you know, Kyrie Irving is not Tony Allen and Klay Thompson is not who he used to be as an on ball defender. It's one of the reasons the Golden State warriors couldn't afford to pay him to be besides Steph Curry in that backcourt as much as he wanted. So, yeah, I just think it's kind of all, you know, totally ridiculous. And one of the other parts of it is that the justification Nico has had for doing this falls back on, you know, basically, trust me, because I made the Kyrie trade and everyone criticized the Kyrie trade. Look how that turned out. I made the PJ Washington trade and the Daniel Gafford trade at last year's trade deadline. Everyone was killing me. Look how that turned out. Time will tell. And the thing is like, yeah, you made those trades when you had Luka Doncic on the team because he's incredible and he's the reason that you went to the NBA Finals. And by the way, like, defense wasn't the problem in the NBA Finals. I know Luka did not play particularly well and Kyrie did not play particularly well on that end, but you were going against a team that was like a really terrible matchup for you that didn't have a great offensive series. So I just, I think like, fundamentally this is so ridiculous and I'll never really get over it. And I wrote a column at like 2am My first reaction to the trade when it happened, calling it the worst trade in NBA history. I still believe that, maybe even more so in hindsight after all of these injuries have happened. It's been just a worst case scenario for the Dallas Mavericks. I feel for their fans terribly and I think that that press conference is another like just notch on a long string. A continuum of absurdity in the post Luca Dallas Mavericks existence.
- [31:45]
Zach Lowe
So we've long passed the point where quotes come out from the Mavericks about this trade. And I have to my, I'm like, is it fake? Is it real? Is that a real thing? It really peaked with the, the Babe Ruth comparison being really, quote, really cool or Kind of cool. That's not, it's not cool. Like it's a lot of things, but it's not cool. And then yesterday I saw this like Rick Weltz, who, God bless him, has been a lifetimer in the NBA, a Hall of Famer. He is, I don't even know what he is, the CEO of the Mavericks or something now. He was with the warriors forever and ever. All time legend in the business. He's a CEO and many, many people have made the same joke to me in the last two months or three months, whatever, since the trade. Been like, well, it's a good, it's a good thing. Rick Welts got paid a crap ton of money to go be the CEO of the Mavericks is presumably his last lap in the NBA. This quote comes out where he's comparing the trade of Luca to when the warriors, when he was with the warriors, traded Monte Ellis for Andrew Bogut. And it was wildly unpopular and Joe Lakob and Chris Mullen got booed on the court at right after the trade. And look how well that turned out in the end. And my assumption, I saw it on Twitter, I'm like, well that's fake. Like there's just no, there's zero percent chance that could be real. And I'm googling it now. That appears to be a real quote. That appears to be an actual comparison that Rick Welts, who knows more about the business of basketball in one brain cell than I do in my whole brain, said. Even if that thought entered my mind at the very word conjuring of the word Monte, I would have been like, no, you know, no, I can't. It's. Luka tantic is a 5 time first team all NBA player who has been to the NBA finals. I. It's just really unbelievable. Look, there are multiple championship. Nico. Nico's right in this sense. There's multiple ways to win an NBA title. I kind of like the idea of tripling down on defense in an era where we're not far removed from the whole discussion is like, have the NBA made defense impossible? Is defense even important anymore? I love that the Thunder are going all in on that end too. I don't mind like sort of stamping that as that's what we're going to be about. We are zigging in that direction when the league is zagging in the other direction. The reality is you need to be good at both to win an NBA championship and you generally don't get to decide to this degree which you are elite at if you can't be absolutely elite at both. You got to be elite at one and good at the other, right? And you don't generally get to decide, go to the team building grocery store and pick out whatever model fits you. You generally just step one is get the top five guy in the NBA and just build what makes sense around him and what makes sense around Luka. Is elite offense good enough defense? Much like the Denver Nuggets when they won the championship around Nikola Jokic and they had that model down. They had it. It was already there for them. Their defense was very good in 2022 and they made the conference finals. Their defense was quite good again in 2024 when they made the NBA Finals. Like not far from defense wins championships. The last word of that is championship. Three games away from championship. That model is a proven model. It works. And to swap it out in chasing this other model, which would presumably be good on offense, great on defense, is just needless when you consider the cost and the return of this particular trade. There is a very good chance that if healthy with Kyrie, with ad, with lively, with a burgeoning young cast of interesting players around them that does not include Quentin Grimes anymore, by the way. They could have absolutely landed on a team that is, let's say, eighth in offense, second on defense, championship worthy, near championship worthy if everything goes right. Well, everything hasn't gone right. And as I keep saying, this trade squeezed your timetable so narrowly that you can't afford really anything going wrong to the level that it is going wrong. And you know, we'll see when Kyrie comes back and in what condition he's in. But this year's a wash. Next year's tbd, the history of ACL tears would not make me super duper optimistic about it. But we'll see. But that's that. I just. I can't believe it. The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA play in tournament gives some teams one last shot at making the playoffs. I see you Miami Heat. But FanDuel is giving all new customers a shot at $250 in bonus bets. Join FanDuel today. You'll get started with $250 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. From three pointers to steals to assists, FanDuel has so many ways to bet your favorite player props. Plus, after the game tips off, you can even combine live prop bets into a same game parlay. For a chance to win big, just visit FanDuel.com low my last name L O W E that's FanDuel.com low for your shot at $250 in bonus bets. Make every moment more with FanDuel. Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 or over in President select states or 18 and over in President D.C. first online real money wager only $5 deposit required. Bonus issued is non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after a seat restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800- gambler or visit RG all right, should we. Should we talk about some playoff series?
- [37:22]
Michael Pina
Absolutely. Can't wait.
- [37:25]
Zach Lowe
We're going to preview the two set series that I have not previewed yet that have become set in stone since Monday's podcast with Bill and Mo De Kill. And we're going to start with the headliner. The Golden State warriors win the playing game against Memphis and they draw the Houston Rockets. A lot has been said. Michael Pina, that boy. The warriors may have actually lucked in to a good playoff route for them. They get the inexperienced, sometimes offensively challenged Rockets in the first round, although you wouldn't guess. But Houston had a higher offensive rating this year than the Warriors. Just FYI. Although they were 21st I think in half court offense, which is quite pertinent now they are on the opposite side of the bracket from Oklahoma City, the red hot Los Angeles Clippers, the team close to your heart and the Denver Nuggets. So that's good and I can squint and I can see that actually. But this ain't going to be no picnic against the Houston Rockets. These teams played five times in the regular season, twice after the Jimmy Butler trade. Overall it was an absolute defensive SlugFest across the board. 104 offensive rating for the Warriors, 103 for the Rockets, both of which would rank dead last in the NBA. There's a ton to unpack here. These are both great rebounding teams. That's going to be an interesting battle to watch. We have the warriors offense which takes the second most threes in the NBA against the Rockets defense that gives up the third fewest. I think warriors role player threes are going to be a bellwether in this series. They need Pajemski and Moody and Peyton and Buddy Heald if he can survive defensively to make enough shots because shots are going to be funneled in those directions. There's a lot to unpack here, but I would start here. I think this is going to be a tough series. It's going to be an Exhausting series. Regardless, the warriors against length, athleticism and youth has always been a challenge for them that they have to puzzle solve with their, you know, veteran guile and shooting and skill. Big picture question number one, how do the Rockets score enough to win four games in this series?
- [39:40]
Michael Pina
It's a great question. I think that the key for Houston all season long has been the possession game, right? So Houston does not turn the ball over. And they are the best offensive rebounding team in the league. They averaged five more shots per game than their opponent this season, which was second only to the Oklahoma City Thunder. And I think that maintaining that, if not increasing it on a team in Golden State that forced the most turnovers in the NBA since the trade deadline and had the best defensive rating in the NBA since the trade deadline is just absolutely critical. And I know that since the trade deadline, the Rockets have been just average in offensive turnover rate. But a lot of that is because of them not having Fred Van Fleet, who I think will be huge on both ends for them in this series. But yeah, offensive generation in the half court is going to be really tough for them. And pounding the offensive glass with Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, Changun Adams. Just being incredibly physical, just saying those.
- [40:45]
Zach Lowe
Four names in a row in the context of offensive rebounding. My spine, I felt a shiver down my spine. Like, how unpleasant would that be again? I always think it's at summer league they should have these challenges for media. Like get around a screen from Steven Adams would be a challenge and like box out. Tari Eason would be another one. Just forget Adams and Shengun, who are huge and mean and Adams will just beat the crap out of you. Just. How about Tar. Tari Eason's coming from half court. Box him out. I would. I would. No chance. I'd be helpless.
- [41:16]
Michael Pina
I had to lift my son in his stroller up this out of the subway two days ago and my back is ruined. So that exerc I'm tapping out of right now, I just want to let you know, it's absolutely not something I'm. I'm interested in doing.
- [41:30]
Zach Lowe
All right, continue.
- [41:31]
Michael Pina
I'm sorry, but I will say that I think Shingoon is just really important. I mean, obviously is their best player. I think he's really important in this series. Offensively, I think whether he is posting up Draymond Green, using his size, using his quickness, drawing fouls, that's huge. Drawing double teams, potentially creating open looks for okay outside shooters on his team, or just even finding mismatches Mismatches with inverted pick and rolls that they do a little bit of. You know, there was a play where in their most recent meeting where he got Pajemski on him around the nail and he started to back him down and Jimmy Butler helped early off Aman Thompson in the corner. Aman Thompson, baseline cuts for a dunk. I think that this is the type of offense that Houston can generate sometimes. I think fundamentally like why it's so difficult to pick them though is not that I won't, but it's tough just because it comes down to like tough shot making and who are the tough shot makers on this team? And like can Jalen Green go off in two or three games? Can Dylan Brooks shoot well over 40% from behind the three point line? Can they survive if Fred Van Fleet has another like clunker? Like, I don't think that they can. So there's a lot of stuff they can do, a lot of pieces they can or like areas they can poke at. But generating good offense for this team is going to be tough. And I will also say that the double big lineup, which I think has been much ballyhooed deservedly with Sengun and Steven Adams, you know, the last time they played, Ime Udoka plays that, that duo, it had a lot of success in that game, but he also played it when Steph Curry was on the bench intentionally. And so you can't really do that. Like how much are you going to squeeze out of that if Curry is playing more minutes? I mean we're in the, we're in the post season, so I think that that's really fascinating. They go zone a lot when those two are on the court. Can't really do that against the Golden State warriors when Steph Curry is out there. So I, I don't really have a good answer. I hope that was a good answer. I don't know what the answer is. I don't know how they.
- [43:55]
Zach Lowe
I mean the first answer is obviously they need to defend the warriors as well as they did in the regular season to give their offense a chance to just score enough points. You nailed it with the double big lineup. They intentionally avoided Steph with it completely. We'll see if they do that in this series. Look, I think for Houston to win this series, a number of things have to happen. One of which is they take care of the ball, as you mentioned. Another of which is they need to, they need to win the rebounding battle. The warriors are actually a sneakily really good rebounding team on both ends. Of the floor.
- [44:25]
Michael Pina
Yeah.
- [44:27]
Zach Lowe
And I think hovering above all that is we'd get to the end of the series and there would be have to be a debate about was Shen Gun the best player in the series? Because I just think he is the. He's going to have to be. The answer to this question of how do the Rockets not even just generate buckets late in games? How do the Rockets bend the defense late in games? How do they draw two on the ball late in games? And that's been tough sledding for Shen Goon against Draymond Green. The warriors have mostly led Draymond guard him straight up. They'll, they'll like surprise attack with the double or a half help here and there. And this season Shengun post ups against the Warriors, 0.6 points per possession. When he shoots out of the post or passes to a guy who shoots right away, 0.89 points per possession. Overall, those are horrid, horrid numbers. Draymond's been very physical with him, has stood him up. He can't back him down. That's a little bit worrisome to me. And beyond that, like the pick and roll with Jalen Green and Shen Goon and Van Vliet and Sengun, the warriors just kind of drop back on that and Draymond is as good as it gets at, at playing two at once. Defensively, they haven't gotten a ton of traction there and then the next place they go is, well, if heels on the floor, if Steph's on the floor, can we hunt him at all with our guards? So you'll see like Jalen Green, he's. Steph will often guard Dylan Brooks sometimes. I'm in. Thompson, Dylan, come up, set a screen for me. I'll get a switch and then it'll be Jalen Green or Fred Van Vliet trying to attack Steph one on one. And they'll have moments. I just don't think that's good enough in the half court without a massive Sengun series. One thing I noticed from Jalen Green is like when he gets that switch with Curry, if there's an angle, if Steph switches in a way that gives an angle even slightly, Jalen Green has success when he just goes right away, see the angle go to the rim. The minute you start dancing with the ball, it's a win for the Warriors. It's going to be a tough shot. And so I just, I do worry about their half court offense in this series, but I also worry about the warriors half court oh, one thing about Sengun, by the way, I mentioned Draymond on him, he's often. Sengun is often not going to guard Draymond Green on the other end of the floor. Even though they are matched up at center. They will put him on Moses Moody a lot and sort of dare the warriors say, okay, you want to involve Shin Gun in the pick and roll, you're going to have to use your least dangerous starting offensive player to do it, your least creative starting offense. So now I think Moody's had a nice season, but if I have my choice, I'm going to choose Moody to have to play making the pick and roll in all of this. And the result of that, there are lots of trickle downs of that, but one is if they ever catch the warriors on defense with Moody stuck on Sengun or anybody but Draymond and Kavon Looney stuck on Sengun, the whole possession has to whatever your plan was, scrap the plan and give the ball to Sengun because you're not going to have many opportunities to do that. But look, the Rockets have a lot of answers against the Warriors. Defensively, we know what the warriors answers are going to be. They're going to lean into their split actions, their off ball movement. You know, you might see like some Steph pick and rolls to hunt Jalen Green and try to go against him one on one. But the Rockets don't have a lot of weak points to pick at. Amen. Thompson is as good as it gets defending Steph and Fred Van Vliet is as good as it gets after that. And we saw that in the last game they played. Steph couldn't even get the ball basically. What else are you looking at when the warriors have the ball, when the.
- [47:58]
Michael Pina
Warriors, I mean, how do we get Steph going? My mind is recency bias off of that last game that I watched rewatched a couple of days ago. But you know, you mentioned the. Well, first of all I want to say like yeah, the warriors, they got some good stuff doing typical warriors stuff in crunch time of that game. You had Jimmy Butler back screening Curry and then back cutting, Draymond hits him out of the post for a layup. You have Curry cutting through the paint, Ahmed Thompson trailing him, Dylan Brooks for whatever reason, abandoning Jimmy Butler and leaving him wide open under the rim for a layup. But I, I think like there is a possibility that Amin Thompson, who his first team, all defense for me and someone I flirted and considered with for defensive player of the year, that he is a true nuisance on the level we have never seen in a playoff series for Steph Curry. And in that case, the reason that you got Jimmy Butler is that you can tilt your offense more towards Jimmy Butler. And one of the great questions that I have going into this and one of the, it's one of the more existential questions I've had about the Houston Rockets since they've become pretty good, is how does Jalen Green hold up defensively in a playoff series? And I think that we haven't seen a lot of it when these two teams have matched up. But Jimmy Butler hunting mismatch, hunting mismatches is kind of his calling card in the postseason when he wants to make something happen and make himself felt. And I feel like Jalen Green is the obvious weak link there. They did it one time, I believe in the last meeting it was a pistol action. Brandon Pajinski sets a ball screen, step up screen for, for Jimmy forced the switch and Gary Payton cuts from the weak side, hits a floater. But that action right there is something that I think like hunting Jalen Green fundamentally with either Steph or more so I think with, with Jimmy and his physicality and his size, I think that that's something that could create a lot of ripple effects for Houston's defense and just really be disruptive because they need Jalen Green's offense. But at the same time, he may be unplayable on the defensive end.
- [50:20]
Zach Lowe
Well, I mean, he's going to have to play and I think he's made strides defensively enough that I trust him to play heavy minutes in the series. But, you know, sometimes someone is the weak link almost by default. Yeah, the matchups. Amen. Thompson is going to guard Steph a lot and Dylan Brooks is going to guard Jimmy a lot. Part of the benefit of that is if you even try a two man game on or off the ball between those two players, you are size wise programmed to switch now. Amen. Thompson was clearly instructed, don't switch, don't do anything. Just stay on step at all times, disregard everything else. And he did that excellently. Which is another reason why I just think they're going to have to use every trick in the warriors book to get space for Steph. Sometimes that's just going to be like, you know what, we're not a heavy pick and roll offense, but Sengun is on Draymond dispossession. Like, let's run a Steph Draymond pick and roll, see what they do. If there's two on the ball, boom. We know how to play out of that. Our guys are just going to have to finish. And like, that's what I mean about shots being funneled to the shooters and to Gary Payton the second, who is going to get a lot of those moody minutes, I think is the fifth guy in that starting lineup or closing lineup or whatever. They ran a couple of plays against the Rockets where they essentially like clear the side of the floor for Steph, pick and rolls with the war against the Rocket center to create like easier passing angles, easier four on threes, run a half court pick and roll for Steph when he's bringing the ball up. Just run to just spring a few of those every game, get him going downhill. And Jimmy was quiet in the two games he played against Houston for the Warriors. I don't expect him to be quiet in this series. By the way, we should mention, should have mentioned off the bat, bigger picture stuff here. First of all, it's a renewal of one of my favorite rivalries in the NBA of the last 15 years, Rockets, warriors, which during the height of the James Harden Maury gate about the officials releasing the report and the mathematics behind it and all that was just one of these rivalries that elevated beyond just Warriors, Rockets, and somehow became like a battle for the soul of basketball and how it should be played and what was the right way to play. And then just two weeks ago, IME Odoka sitting there talking trash to all the warriors and after the game says, oh, they were crying. Steph was crying. They were crying. That's when we know we had him. All right, okay. You called your shot, man. You said they're crying. You didn't say they're complaining or whining. You intentionally use the term crying like they're babies. And now you got to face them seven times, maybe in two weeks. Who would you pick to win the series? You don't have to make a pick. I'm going to make a pick. But you don't have to.
- [52:51]
Michael Pina
No, I'm not a coward, Zach. I'll do it. I'm going to say. I'm going to say Rockets in seven is what I'm going to say. And I don't feel great about that. But I have a lot of faith in this team's self. I know it's their first time. A lot of them, it's their first time, not everyone's first time on the team, but I have a lot of confidence in their self, belief in that they know their identity. They do not beat themselves. They are poised and I think as, as we know from our last segment, you know, defense wins championships.
- [53:35]
Zach Lowe
So Rockets in seven things could be a long series. I can't. I can't abandon the old heads yet.
- [53:46]
Michael Pina
It's entirely understandable.
- [53:47]
Zach Lowe
I'm going. I'm going. I'm going. Warriors and seven, and they have a history of gut punch eliminations of the Rockets on the Rockets home floor in both 2018, the 27 consecutive missed threes in 2019, the late game meltdown where Steph went insane in the second half and made three after three after three on the same exact play in the same exact spot, right wing. Time after time, I see a. I see a third one coming. No disrespect for the Rockets, and we know the implications of that. Will that accelerate the Rockets team building if indeed they do lose in the first round? I would. We'll see. We'll see how it goes.
- [54:25]
Michael Pina
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- [54:49]
Zach Lowe
All right, you want to do an awards interlude?
- [54:53]
Michael Pina
Sure.
- [54:54]
Zach Lowe
All right. I mentioned we started doing all defense, so I've changed my all defense and defensive player of the year. I think when our ballots actually do. By the way, I don't have a ballot.
- [55:03]
Michael Pina
They were due yesterday, I believe.
- [55:06]
Zach Lowe
So they're due. Great. So what I say has no impact at all. Defensive player of the year. I flipped back to Evan Mobley. At the end, I went Mobley, Draymond Green, Lou Dort. I don't think Mobley is a perfect defender. I don't think he's an A plus defender yet. I think he's a solid A. And with Wemby not eligible, I think start to finish, he had the cleanest campaign beginning to end. I went with Mobley again. I did all these awards previously, so if you want deeper analysis, you can find it on earlier episodes. First team, all defense. I went this. There was a couple agonizing ones. Here I went Mobley, Draymond Dort. My top three on the ballot, Amen Thompson and Dyson Daniels. I shifted Jaren Jackson Jr. To second team. The fouling and the late season slide started to irritate me to the point that I put him on second team and I moved Dort to first team as a deserving Oklahoma City representative. The heartbreakers on my second team were I badly wanted a first team spot for Avitza Zubots and I badly wanted a first team spot for Ogn and Obi, whose name I have not seen mentioned enough in the first team all defense debate. Just an incredible defensive season. Steals, blocks taken on whatever assignment, playing a ton of minutes. Obviously as a Knick, that's sort of job description number one. I just. Who am I taking off for those guys? I can't take off the top three on my defensive player of the year. I feel like I should reward a Thunder player. And Amin Thompson is just like a phantom on the court. I can't take any of those guys off. And so my second team was Jaren Jackson Jr. Zubots and Anobi, Rudy Gobert and Jalen Williams from the Thunder. That's where we are with that six man of the year, Peyton Pritchard, Malik Beasley, Nas Reed. Unchanged from when I did this on my prior podcast. Most improved player. I have not done yet. Who was your most improved player ballot?
- [57:06]
Michael Pina
Most improved player I had. Let's see. Because I had Ty Jerome in as the fake. Just that is.
- [57:14]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, you made a protest.
- [57:16]
Michael Pina
Yeah, I actually voted for Zubots number one and then I had Kate Cunningham second which I didn't feel great about. But honestly there aren't, there weren't a lot of great. So let me, let me my quick caveat like I don't vote for guys who are in the first three years of their career. I don't consider them for this award. So you know Dyson Daniels, fantastic, obvious improvement, deserving to win. Christian Brown is someone else who I believe made a huge leap, really filled his role, scaled up in a lot of wonderful ways. He does not qualify for my personal ballot for my personal reasons. So I had Cade second and Peyton Pritchard third.
- [58:01]
Zach Lowe
All defensible. There's a million guys that you could pitch for this award. First, second, third, fourth, fifth, you know, whatever. I went Dyson Daniels one. I just think the offensive improvement is what, is what swung it for me. The fact that he's a reliable 15 point a game guy who when he scores 20, 22, 23, it's like, oh wow, his floater was really on today. Now the three point shot isn't quite where they want it to be, but he's just become a very artful bully ball. Get it to his spot, elevate and the defense speaks for itself. I just didn't see that level of two way play coming even in an elevated role coming from New Orleans to Atlanta, that it's. It's legitimately shocking some nights to me how effective he is as an offensive player. So I went Daniels, Zubots and then third place. I just. You could have gone a million different directions with Ty Jerome not eligible. I went with Quentin Grimes. I think his late season stuff in Philadelphia, I don't think he's going to score 25 points a game. But it didn't feel to me watching those games like it was ball hoggy or like out of regular NBA context, improvement. He looked like a real player doing real stuff. His passing, he was like averaging six, seven assists a game. I'm just going to give him the nod for like making the most. He was already starting to play better in Dallas and what he did in Philly felt real to me. So I'm giving him the nod. I knew Cade Cunningham was going to be good. I always thought Kate Cunningham was already going to be good. You could see this coming. So I wasn't. He's not on my ballot. Okay. Coach of the year. I went Kenny Atkinson, J.B. bickerstaff, Ty Lu. Apologies. I already did all my apologies to Ime Udoka, many others. All right, let's get to the big one. I took this one to the wire. You voted for Jokic, right?
- [59:47]
Michael Pina
I did.
- [59:49]
Zach Lowe
I legitimately couldn't decide. Like legitimately. I've texted 40 people in the NBA who I really trust ish. In the last 48 hours. Nobody can decide. I mean the amount of responses I've gotten from GMs, coaches, scouts, whoever that ref that that start with. Well, it's 4,951, 51, 49 or one person said to me, this is not a Russ or Derrick Rose situation. Anyone. Either of the two you pick is fine. I thought that was a little disrespectful. Even though I didn't vote for either of those guys in those particular years. I would say the response is leaned, Shay. But more is just the shoulder shrug of like, well, they won the most games. This is the rare time when I think both choices are right and I think both choices are okay. And when you really you. We can get bogged down in the numbers and this and that and who's got the edge here? I would say the stats are relatively equal. Jokic has a slight edge. I think in the aggregate. If you take all the counting stats, all the advanced stats, all of it, like teensiest edge to Jokic, but such a small edge that I don't really care all that much. These are historically two of the best seasons of all time. I do find it ironic that the Thunder of all franchises are arguing against a guy winning who averaged a triple double in an NBA season when all those years ago was like, well, it's simple. It's all. It's just. It's just reductive. Triple double equals mvp. So in the end it comes down to. If you zoom way out, my brain goes to two different places, two different arguments, one for each player. Just the dumbest zoom out arguments that are not dumb, actually that resonate when you get to it. Over here is we all know who the best player is. Every one of those 40 people who I polled, everyone, even the 28 who were like, we're leaning. Shay would say Jokic is the best player, every one of them. I feel. I don't think there's one that would not say that. Maybe one. One said one gave me the cop out of Jokic is the best offensive player. Shai's the best two way player. I guess that counts as saying Shay's the best player. I don't know. So that's over here. Over here on the other side is 18 wins.
- [62:17]
Michael Pina
It's a lot.
- [62:19]
Zach Lowe
That's the gap.
- [62:21]
Michael Pina
Yeah.
- [62:22]
Zach Lowe
Between Shea and the Thunder and Jokic and the Nuggets. And I know the nuggets are plus 10 and a half with Yokich on the floor. That's an elite number. That's first, second in the NBA most years among teams like I'm a team level and minus nine when he's on the bench. Catastrophic. The Thunder are plus five with Shai on the bench. That would be top five in the NBA for teams. Most times they're plus 17 with him on the floor. Obviously his supporting cast is better, more reliable, more stable. And you just get into this endless sort of spiral of what is the appropriate amount, if any, to quote unquote, reward Jokic for stabilizing what has been a not functional team with him. I mean, just call it what it is. They're not. It's not a functional team with him off the floor. And are you there for punishing SGA for the sin of having a functional team when he's off the floor? What's interesting about Denver is we know their bench stinks. Jamal Murray's numbers, like you net out this Jamal Murray season, it's just like kind of another Jamal Murray season. It feels like it hasn't been a great season. And it was a bad. It was a bad beginning. And an injured ending and the middle was sensational. He ends up at 21 a game on 47% shooting, 39% from threes. Like that's a normal Jamal Murray season. It's like even a little better than normal. Statistically. It didn't feel that way. Here's where I went in the end. And again, I don't care. I don't care who wins. Like I can't. I am Team Jokic all day long, every day. He's been my favorite player ever to cover probably. I think 68 wins needs to be respected. It's not the 18. It's not the 18. It's the 68. This was a 70 win team, almost with a net rating that is flirting with the best ever in the regular season. I know it's all meaningless if they shit the bet in the playoffs and we'll see if they do or not. I don't think they're going to, but we'll see. I think 68 wins needs to be respected. And I think when you look at the on off numbers, they suggest to you that A, this team still has no viable offense without Shay Gilgis Alexander and B, he is the reason that they are not just a good regular season team, not just a great regular season team, but an all time great regular season team. He is helping them on defense. Helping them. He's not surviving because of everybody around him. He's actively helping them. We don't need to talk about the offense. It's incredible. And I think what has kind of been missed in all the rigmarole of, you know, Aaron Gordon played 51 games. Jamal Murray wasn't himself at the start of the season. The bench was bad. And then Julian Strother got hurt and it got worse. Zeke Najee had a hot second where he was productive and then he's gone. Like Chet played 32 games. I think Hartenstein played 57 games. Caruso just, I guess is on just permanent load. Management played 50 something games and just like 8 minutes here, 16 minutes there. Like when you take Chet and or Hartenstein out of that group, it's not like they're loaded with incredible offensive talent in Oklahoma City. He is making those guys better by getting them easy shot after easy shot after easy shot. And I say that knowing that he's not as good of a playmaker as he might need to be for this team to go all the way. Now maybe he proves that wrong this, this coming postseason. I will say this. Look, The Thunder had 111 offensive rating with Shay off the floor. That would be like 25th in the NBA. That could be your case. Just interestingly, with Chet and J Dub and no shay, they scored 121 points per hundred possessions, about 90th percentile of all lineups. According to Cleaning the Glass. That would seem to be like, huh. Does that undercut Shay's argument a little bit? And maybe it does. If those guys had played more, that's 180 minutes about for the full season. So in the end, I don't feel good about it. I never feel good not voting for Jokic because he's the best player. I think they've been close enough to the best for this. 82 games is close enough, like best players to build a team around. Best player in the world. Best player for game seven. It's Jokic. Jokic, Jokic. For these 82 games, who was best is close enough that I am going to go with Shay because I just think 68 wins need to be respected. If they were 59 and 23, 60 and 22, 57 and 25, I think it's Jokic. Jokic, Jokic. 50 wins, by the way, for Denver, considering their turmoil is a shit ton of wins in the Western Conference. I don't. There's no wrong or right answer as long as you have these two guys first and second on your ballot. I just think 68 wins is so many goddamn wins and he's the reason they win that many games. I would. I would vote Shay 1. Jokic 2. Giannis 3, Tatum 4, Mitchell 5. And then I throw this away forever and never have to think about it again as Jokic runs roughshod through the playoffs. I am scarred from voting Embiid two years ago.
- [67:45]
Michael Pina
You are.
- [67:47]
Zach Lowe
I mean, I think it was a defensible choice, right? Like it's. It just that season and the way that Jokic kind of tanked the end of the season, almost as if he didn't want to win the mvp. I think gave it to Embiid, who was sensational and the best scorer in the league that year. But you knew as you were voting it, like playoffs could really go the other way. But I think I would feel fine voting SGA and I think there's just something to 68 wins. The story of the season. Ty goes to. Ty goes to 68 wins.
- [68:19]
Michael Pina
Thoughts?
- [68:20]
Zach Lowe
That's.
- [68:20]
Michael Pina
That's totally fair. I agree with you saying that these are two historically great seasons and Shea being on such a historically great regular season team as their leading scorer and the leading scorer in the entire NBA by a significant margin is incredible. Hats off to him. I also think that if I'm giving credit to the Oklahoma City Thunder for all their success, it is Shea one and probably two and maybe three. But also like having one of the great defenses of the last 25 years and also being one of the deepest teams in the NBA and saying that makes me sound like I'm denigrating sga. And that's like the last thing I want to do in comparing these two guys. But I also just am so enamored with the season that Jokic had and I wrote it in depth about it, so I don't want to go long here at all.
- [69:24]
Zach Lowe
But I just think they're both. This is a one of a kind season from Jokic and I. Or I feel queasy in my stomach. Where else would I feel queasy?
- [69:34]
Michael Pina
Do you feel queasy anywhere else?
- [69:36]
Zach Lowe
Not voting for him? You know, you mentioned winning with defense and this is. This gets back to like Harden's all NBA case. I ultimately put Harden on third team. It's like the Clippers are winning. If you had to boil it down to one reason, it's because their defense has been sensational all year. Is James Harden really contributing to that? Is like that really? How much credit are we going to give him? But they had to survive on offense and he trended the right way. And he trended the way when Kawhi came back and I think he ended up in a place where I had him on my ballot. Thunder, you're making the same kind of argument in terms of like, well, the reason they're F168 games is because of their defense. How. How critical is Shea in that? I would say he's actually important enough that I'm giving him a chunk, some size chunk of the credit for the fact that they're number one in defense. And I say that because when you're weakest or second weakest defender is a good defender who's helping your defense and not. And you're not like working around him in any way.
- [70:37]
Michael Pina
Sure.
- [70:37]
Zach Lowe
I think that's like massively valuable. And again, their offense was bad without him and their offense overall was in a virtual tie with Boston for second in the NBA. So they may be winning with defense. Hashtag defense win championships. They're also winning with what in the regular season is an incredible like if I told you they were roughly equivalent with Boston, I think people would be like, whoa, that's it. The three point shooting machine in Boston. And So I, I, I, look, I went back and forth. Bill and I discussed this all the time. There were days where we were both Jokic. I don't know where he ended up. I, I was Jokic yesterday. I just at the end set on nsj. That's all. Speaking of the Celtics, last thing we got to do. Boston, Orlando, Round one. Not a lot of relevant footage between these two teams this year. Only played three times. One was the season finale where Boston sat almost everybody. Other guys missed games. Paolo, Franz, Tatum. Along the way I even watched footage of last season's Celtics Magic matchups to prep a little bit for this. Obviously Celtics second in offense, fourth in defense plus 9.4 second net rating. Magic 27th in offense, second in defense, flat zero net rating. 17. There's an interesting contrast in styles here, both in free throws and turnovers. Most sort of dramatically. Boston never gets to the line in Orlando fouls the hell out of everyone. Boston is dead last in free throw rate on offense. The Magic are dead last in free throw rate on defense. I don't know who that helps or hurts. Maybe it helps the Magic because their weakness is irrelevant. Maybe it helps Boston because hey, there's like seven extra points that we normally don't get because they're hitting us all the time. Orlando's offense is second in free throw rate. Boston's defense is first in free throw rate. That would seem to obviously help Boston to me. Not that they need any help to win this series. I mean, I think we'd all agree this is a 4:1 type gentleman sweep. Maybe, maybe something less than that. I'm just trying to help Orlando. Like can I make this interesting? And then, you know, the most interesting one is Boston takes the most threes. Orlando allows the fewest threes. Can they coax the Celtics at all into settling for mid range shots? Basically the only way the Magic compete is bad offensive series for Boston. Some of which is foisted onto Boston by the Magic's great defense. Win the offensive rebounding, take care of the ball, which is a weakness for Orlando. But Boston doesn't force any turnovers and get insanely lucky. And some of those things are plausible, some not. I don't really know that, you know, they have a chance here but. Or Boston is ideally suited to defend almost every team and they are certainly ideally suited to defend Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. They have guarded them with any combination of Jrue Holiday, Jalen Brown, Jason Tatum, Al Horford will chip in and they will switch a lot of they'll Switch a ton and put Derrick White on Palo or put Kristaps Porzingis on Paolo. And you know why they do that? Because they don't care if they have to send help towards Paolo Banchero in a bad matchup because they are happy to let everybody else on the Magic shoot threes, particularly with the injuries that the Magics are facing. I just don't know how Orlando scores enough to make this a competitive series. Can you talk me into that at all? Besides Cole Anthony's. Cole Anthony's back, baby.
- [74:08]
Michael Pina
Yeah. I will say in their first meeting, Jayson Tatum did not play and Franz Wagner and Paulo Benchero did not play either. Boston attempted 33 threes in that game, which was their lowest number for the entire season. In the second game, no fronds. But every Celtic played, they took 37 threes, which was tied for their fourth fewest this season.
- [74:35]
Zach Lowe
And I think how did Orlando do that on the film? What are they doing to limit Boston's threes?
- [74:42]
Michael Pina
So they switch everything first and foremost and then they do not help. And so. And they don't meaning they don't help off the three point line. They don't dig, they don't hard double. If Cole Anthony switches on to Kristaps Porzingis or Anthony Black switches onto Chris as Porzingis, they don't care. They want to play that matchup one on one. They'll stay home on the three point line and they'll make Kristaps Porzingis either draw a foul or make his 12 foot turnaround. And this is kind of how they play this entire season against everyone. This is their style. And so in the game that I rewatched was, I think was the second game, the one where Tatum did play every time they switched and Tatum got a matchup that he liked and isolated, they did not help. And Tatum had like four. It was a second quarter of like three or four straight possessions of driving to the rim and finishing. Jalen Brown had multiple plays in that game where he got Wendell Carter on him on a switch, drove Wendell Carter right to the basket and there was no help, no dramatic rotation. And so eventually in that game, the Magic bent and the Magic started to help. The Magic started to double, the Magic started to over rotate and the Magic were not switching as much in the perimeter as they were early on. And that's when the Celtics kind of blew it open and got the threes that they do against every other team. And so what I would say is if you are the Orlando Magic, your only chance in this series and it's not like a great one, but it's to not deviate at all from your core philosophy on defense and to play like guard your yard as best you can. Sprint to run three point shooters off the line, which is something they're very good at. Best team in the league at, like, they'll follow you when they're running. Like they, like before you can even get the shot up, they don't care. That's what they, that's what they do. That's their personality. And I think like once you kind of shift and defend like everybody else and you're put into rotation, you're dead. So don't do that. As hard as it is and how painful it is to watch Jason Tatum destroy Corey Joseph or whoever, it's going to be like, I think Franz Wagner, his size and he's a pretty good defender, pretty good help in on ball. He'll help in this, in this scheme. And you might see more Jonathan Isaac than normal, but I just wouldn't deviate. I think that that's like the, the key thing here that I'm, I'm living and I'm dying by how I've defended all season and I can't fall into the trap of playing how Boston wants me to play is what I would say.
- [77:41]
Zach Lowe
Well, and what you really have to hope for is that through some combination of malaise, disrespect, whatever is going on with Jaylen Brown's knee, if anything, still, you know, Ramona at ESPN reported that he had gotten painkilling injections. That was since confirmed. He's talked openly about the pain he's felt through combination of all those things. They just get into a pattern of, oh, yeah, we're going to settle for step back 20 footers. We're just going to, we don't respect you. We're having fun out here. And all of a sudden like the Magic is stolen the game, stolen the quarter, stolen the half, stolen the game, whatever it is. You mentioned Anthony Black. You know, the absence of Suggs is huge for the Magic all the time, but particularly in this series because they have used Suggs on Tatum and they've used Suggs on Brown and you know, look, he's giving up size in those matchups, but he's a fire hydrant. He's unmovable. He's an incredible defender. And that has allowed them to play around with. Can we put Banchero on Jrue Holiday? Can we, can we mess around with matchups in different ways without him? They have a little bit less flexibility that way. And they don't quite have the answer unless it's Anthony Black of a fifth guy in their starting lineup who helps you on offense without hurting you on defense. If they're continuing to start Corey Joseph, Boston has a place they can pick at every single possession. If Cole Anthony's got to play 35 minutes a game because no one else can score, Boston has a place they can pick every single possession. Anthony Black has been playing really well, including on offense the last couple of months. He's big, he's tough, he's an incredible defender. If they get enough offense out of him, it could be a big series as the sort of Suggs replacement. In that sense, I'm just skeptical that they're going to get enough out of him nearly enough against this defense. Gary Harris maybe helps you a little bit. I don't think more Gary Harris is a hugely productive answer for them. So I don't know sort of how they, how they, how they stop Boston in that regard. It will be interesting to see the matchups because they've, like you said, they switch a ton. Even Wendell Carter Jr. Will switch. So maybe the matchups don't matter. They have toyed in the past with putting Wendell Carter Jr. On Jrue Holiday and a wing on Porzingis and trying to take away the poor Zingis pick and pop game that way. I just, again, if you, if you just start doing the math, okay, if Wendell Carter Jr. Is on Drew Holiday, who's on Porzingis? Well, if that's Ben caro, then where's KCP? Oh, KCP's on Jalen Brown. Like, that's not terrible, but that's a size advantage for Jalen Brown. Bottom line is this. I just don't think the match can score enough to make this a competitive series. I'm going 4:1. I'm giving him a game and that's it.
- [80:20]
Michael Pina
Yeah, I think even just going back to the Carter on Drew mismatch or matchup, I should say, like, it took the Celtics three or four minutes to put have Jrue Holiday come up, flip a ball screen for Jason Tatum and he drills the pull up three. So like, they just have an ant. They're a very smart team. Obviously they're defending champions. I don't think that they can't solve this defense. And I mean, I think, to be honest with you, after watching them play and just, I don't even like, I guess, tricking myself into thinking that Paulo and Franz could have some type of Offensive awakening on this stage. I've kind of talked myself into it being like a competitive four or five game series where like after three quarters in every game the score is tied type of deal. But beyond that it's, it's yeah, the Celtics are going to win in advance and they are much better. And it's just a huge bummer for Orlando that did not have, you know, the team that they envisioned before the season started with Suggs, kcp, Paolo, Franz.
- [81:38]
Zach Lowe
Like those Wagner Bogner's is a big, big deal to this team and now.
- [81:44]
Michael Pina
He'S dressed as an assistant coach seated in the second row every game and it's a bummer. And they had depth and they had continuity and they had chemistry and I thought that they were really good before the season. I thought that they were the biggest threat to Boston in the Eastern Conference like I had. I thought so highly of them. So huge bummer for them. And not having Suggs in particular, as you highlighted in this matchup, makes it almost or definitely untenable.
- [82:15]
Zach Lowe
I previewed the other four series earlier in this week. I made broad predictions on a few of them. I want to make specific predictions now. You can join in if you wish. In the east when we recorded Dame's status was unclear. It has since been reported that he is going to miss the start of the playoffs. I was going to pick Indiana either way. As I said on the podcast, with DAM status uncertain, I will go Pacers over Bucs in six. What about you?
- [82:41]
Michael Pina
I agree with that and I think that there's. Let me ask you, what if that were to happen? What is the like. I don't know if panic is the right word or just like existential self examination as an organization with regards to Giannis Antetokounmpo and his status with the team.
- [83:04]
Zach Lowe
We're like three years into that. It's just, it's been DEFCON somewhere between DEFCON 1 and DEFCON 3 forever. Knicks, Pistons, Detroit, great story, very good team, very bright future. I'm going Nixon 5.
- [83:20]
Michael Pina
Oh wow. Okay. I, I think Nixon 7.
- [83:29]
Zach Lowe
Oh I love it. I hope you're right. And now the two hardest ones to predict and the two most anticipated ones probably Lakers, Wolves, Clippers, Nuggets previewed them extensively with Bill not going to get into the X's and O's and all that. I'm going to go Lake, I'm going to start Lakers Wolves. I'm going to go Lakers in seven. I just can't pick against Luka and LeBron in the first round. Can't. I can't do it with the extra rest with home court advantage. Don't feel good about it. I went through it with Bill. Minnesota scares the hell out of me. They can absolutely win this series in multiple series if they draw the right matchups. Luka hasn't been like a. A Luka since coming to the Lakers. With the exception of a couple of games, including the vengeance game in Dallas. I'm going Lakers in seven.
- [84:17]
Michael Pina
I'm going Lakers in six. And I'm not a huge fan of the construction of this team for the purpose of a playoff run, but I'm with you. I can't bet against Luka Doncic, and I don't want to be mean, but picking a team that has Luca to lose versus a team that has Julius Randle to win just doesn't feel right.
- [84:39]
Zach Lowe
That was mean. You did. You did want to be mean. You were mean.
- [84:44]
Michael Pina
So Lakers in six.
- [84:46]
Zach Lowe
All right, now the big Kahuna. For me, the most interesting series, the one I'm most excited about, and the one I'm least decisive on. Clippers, Nuggets. The four or five series. Nuggets have home court is the four seed. Wish we had seen more Jamal Murray toward the end of the season. Coming back from yet another hamstring issue, we all saw the Clippers, man. You want to argue the Clippers have been the second best team in the west for the last 40 games. Awesome. I don't disagree with you. Kawhi has been unbelievable as a longtime kawhi. Stan slash MVP voter back in the 2017 MVP race. Couldn't be happier. I'm picking the Nuggets. Denver in seven. In seven. Game seven at home. They have the best player. They seem pretty hungry to. To. To galvanize around David Adelman and get out of this organizational chaos that they've been in. I. I will reluctantly pick Jokic at home in Game 7 against the Clippers. No. Almost no outcome would surprise me in this series, though.
- [85:56]
Michael Pina
This has been like asking me to choose between my son and my daughter. I love these two teams so much. I love Jokic. I love Kawhi. I wrote a column in August. The headline was, I can't quit the Los Angeles Clippers.
- [86:13]
Zach Lowe
After they. I remember it, I was like, well, he's obviously lost his mind.
- [86:18]
Michael Pina
And I love a lot of the things that they do. I love so much of how they built this team. I think Kawhi looks so fantastic on both ends to be like, which is really telling and important. And I also am going Nuggets in seven. Because it pretty much boils down to home court for me. Honestly, I had such a difficult time with just kind of delineating the advantages and disadvantages between these two. They're so good. And it's. It's like an unjust basketball crime that we don't get this matchup in the conference finals. And. Yeah, so Nuggets and seven and I don't feel super pumped about that pick, to be honest.
- [87:07]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, look, the west is going to have minimum one first round series every year, often to where you feel like, well, this is. This sucks that these two teams are meeting one. Like, these are two teams that could easily make the conference finals and maybe the finals. And that's just life in the West. And there is no way to fix that unless you want to totally realign the league. Not realign the league, but do the one to 16 in the playoffs. And that is an issue that I don't feel like debating in depth right now. It has a lot of interesting sides to it, a lot of interesting arguments on both sides, but that's just life in the West. Okay, those are the. Those are my predictions for all the series and my awards, my breakdowns. Michael Pena, I know you're. You're watching the film and really diving into these matchups, so it's been really fun to have you on. I'm glad to be teammates in the world of Spotify slash the Ringer. What do we got coming up from you? What do we got? What do we got to look for?
- [87:56]
Michael Pina
I have a piece coming out tomorrow on Just Matchups Breaking Down. It aligns with this conversation dovetails very nicely. Just fun matchups to look out for in the first round. So check that out. And again, this was a true honor. I know you hate that word. It was. I've listened to basically every episode that you've ever recorded. Huge fan. You're the Michael Jordan of what we do. I know you don't want to hear that.
- [88:22]
Zach Lowe
I don't know. I've never had a gambling.
- [88:25]
Michael Pina
But yeah, this was great and I truly appreciate you having me on. Zach.
- [88:30]
Zach Lowe
Michael, Peanut checked out the playoff matchups, X's and O's preview at the Ringer. It's one of those things where, like, if you want to know what's going to happen in this series, like what's actually going to happen and not who's clutch and who has guts and who rises to the moment like that. Some of that stuff is real people. I actually know it's gonna happen. Read that column. Thank you, sir. All right. Hope you guys enjoyed that. Buckle up. A big weekend of playoff games is coming up. We got the two play ins tomorrow. Hurrah. And then eight playoff games Saturday and Sunday. Say goodbye to your loved ones. Enjoy the games. We will catch up on Monday. Reviewing all the weekend action and looking ahead to some of the best game twos on the Zach Lowe Show. Thanks, Everybody. Must be 21 and over and present in select states. For Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over and present in D.C. gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or visit fanduel.com rg call 1-887-89-7777 or is it ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or is it mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland? Hope is here. There's a gambling helpline M or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 Sport in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8H O P E N Y or text hopeny in New York.