← The Zach Lowe Show
The Zach Lowe Show
Playoff Comeback or Collapse?! NBA Breakdowns With Fred Katz and Adam Mares. Plus, a Draft Lottery Preview With J. Kyle Mann.
01:49:43
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- [00:00]
Zach Lowe
You're listening to the Zach Lowe show, sponsored by FanDuel, America's number one sportsbook has made it easier than ever to get in on the action during an NBA playoff game. That's right. Now, even after tip off, just look for the live SGP tab on the FanDuel Sportsbook app and build your bet slip. Then sit back, relax and track the outcome of your parlay right in the app. And if you don't already have it, download the FanDuel app today to make every moment more the ringer is committed to responsible gaming. Please visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of the episode for additional details. Must be 21 and over in President Select State's gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by Lifelock. Not everyone is careful with your personal information, which might explain why there's a victim of identity theft every five seconds in the U.S. fortunately, there's LifeLock. LifeLock monitors hundreds of millions of data points a second for threats to your identity. If your identity is stolen, a US Based restoration specialist will fix it, guaranteed or your money back. Save up to 40% your first year by visiting lifelock.com podcast terms apply. All right, coming up on an absolutely loaded Zach Low Show. Oh my God, Nick Celtics. Steph's injured. Cavs collapse. Indiana comeback. We got Fred Katz, we got Adam Morris, and we got J. Kyle man to preview the draft lottery, which, yes, is coming up on Monday. That's all next on the Zack Low Show. Welcome to the Zach Low show, where the wildest second round in recent NBA playoff history rolled on last night. Fred Katz from the Athletic, how are you?
- [01:50]
Fred Katz
I'm doing great. I'm doing great. I'm. I'm, I'm exhausted from apparently never ever getting to cover a normal basketball game for probably the rest of my life at this point.
- [02:01]
Zach Lowe
Well, I'll tell you this, Fred. The great thing about the playoffs is it's stressful. The other team is 100% focused. They're scheming for you in ways that they would not do in the regular season. All the attention's on you. The environments are crazy. If there's an issue with your team, if there's a weakness with your team, if there's something wrong with the inner fortitude of your team, it will get exposed in the playoffs. The Boston Celtics last year. Incredible season. Incredible championship run. Unimpeachable, unimpeachable no, no, no. No notes. But they were. The reality is this, they did not face an opponent until maybe the finals that was good enough to push them to that point where whatever issues might have been there, and maybe there were none last year came out into the open for the world to see. This is a different year and the Knicks are really good. And what has happened to the Boston Celtics in the first two games blowing 20 point leads at home in both games is absolutely astonishing. First of all, credit to the Knicks. Okay, we got to get that out of the way before the fun part starts. Josh Hart, Just two amazing games. You're going to put your centers on me like every team does. I'm going to hurt you. I'm going to get offensive rebounds, I'm going to kick out the three point shooters. I'm going to play great defense. I'm going to do all the annoying Josh Hart shit that I do that makes you mad. Carl Anthony Towns. How many threes at Carl Anthony Towns take last night, Fred?
- [03:40]
Fred Katz
Carl Anthony Towns I feel like is yet to take a three in the series.
- [03:42]
Zach Lowe
Zach, he took one and it was an end of quarter 70 foot heaven.
- [03:47]
Fred Katz
One and he took one in. And he took one in game one also and it was an end of shot clock three.
- [03:53]
Zach Lowe
The Celtics have vaporized everything. That is a plus plus about Carl Anthony Town's game. And what did he do last night? 21 points, 17 rebounds, beat the living hell out of Al Horford in the post. Not some little shrimpy guard, not a skinny guy. Al Horford beat him up. And ones offensive rebounds, put backs, good defense. When the Knicks switched him onto Jalen Brown or Jason Tatum, which they are doing and doing much more effectively than I envisioned they could do. When I talked about can anyone do to Boston what Orlando is doing and switching everything and trying to limit their three point volume. Now that is not happening. The Celtics are like, you're not going to limit our three point volume. We're going to keep taking them. There's no one under the basket. How about I take a 3? We'll get to that, Fred. We'll get to that. Carl Anthony to Towns. Great job on switches. Jaylen Brunson, great job on switches late in the game. You're going to hunt me. Yeah, I've been a pushover in some matchups against you. Yeah, I want to hedge out and not switch late in the game. If you switch on, if I get switched on to Jaylen Brown, I'm going to make you take a 12 footer or a 15 footer. I'm going to let our, our, our defenders on your corner shooters who are sitting there salivating at the thought of yet another contested corner three. They're not getting the ball. We're staying home. Knicks were awesome. Mikhail Bridges. Hello. Hello. Five first round picks. Hello. I'm here. Present fourth quarter comeback. Amazing by the Knicks. Amazing mental fortuit. Fortitude. Amazing mental toughness to stick with the game. All of that Tibbs shouts to Tibbs, lambasted in a lot of corners. Is uncreative, afraid to make adjustments. Scrap the Nooks based defense for this series and was like, we're going to try something else. We're going to make it work. We're going to see what happens. Great job all around. Any other Knicks notes, Fred, before we really get, we really get revved up here.
- [05:49]
Fred Katz
No, no, I'm, I'm ready to see what you have left. I I what's amazing about the Knicks in particular with what they're doing right now is that it almost felt like that unbelievably wonky and insanely ugly Detroit series changed their, their character and their personality as a team completely. Having watched them the entire season, so much of what they struggled with was physicality and that sort of fortitude that you're talking about. And that was true, I think, across the roster for the most part. And it was certainly true on the defensive end. And that Detroit series was so wild. I was, I was in the locker room after game one when they came back from 20 points the first time against Boston and Cameron Payne kind of, kind of joked to me, he was in jest, but he says to me, thank God for Detroit. And that Detroit series was so. There was so physical and so much went wrong for both teams at any given point in that series. At least one team had completely and utterly forgotten how to play the sport. And I think there was some truth in what Cam was saying. He was, he was joking around, he was being funny, but he said it because it was kind of true. The Knicks are playing very differently now. They did in the regular season stylistically, and I think they're playing very differently than they did in the regular season. Even from a personality standpoint in terms of how they're grinding. You know, the reason that some of those switches are working, why Brunson is fighting against those switches. I don't think I've ever seen him be this just. It's not that he shies away from contact ever defensively, but I don't think I've ever seen him say you know what? I am the tinier guy here. They are not going to call anything against me. I am just bumping my chest into Jason Tatum when I'm far away from the rim every time. Certainly Mikhail Bridges has never been this physical all year. I should say not never in his career, but just this season navigating screens, especially so much of this season where there was just discombobulation. Bridges would. Would have a ball screen up against him and, and he'd pull up short or there'd be miscommunication on the. From the back end or something like that. And I do think the one guy who, who deserves to be mentioned also I think you didn't mention was Mitchell Robinson, who has been so big for them on the defensive end. They are winning his minutes by a landslide in this series. I don't think that's a coincidence. He is so much better on switches than he used to be when he would foul like crazy.
- [08:17]
Zach Lowe
And they didn't want to do that in game one. They're like, you know what? You're not a switch guy. We're going to drop you back. Like traditional coverage that didn't work so well anytime the Knicks have played. Cat has been okay in drop coverage in this series, but a lot of the stints when the Celtics offense finally gets a rhythm, it's when the Knicks revert to traditional pick and roll defense. And you get like, Porzingis hard roll dunk, Cornette hard roll layup. Tatum driving right by Cat with an in n out dribble. The Mitchell Robinson thing. And this is before I get to the meat and potatoes, outstanding. The big lineup has been working in limited doses all year, and yet I'm watching the game and I'm still like, so they're fouling to get Ogn and Obi back into the game. Like they're fouling Mitchell Robinson to get him out of the game. They're this scared of him that the guy who was the best player on the floor in Game one, who's on the bench right now, is going to come back into the game. And the Celtics are essentially choosing that. I still thought that was some galaxy brain insanity by Joe Missoula, who did not. Okay, all right. Enough with that. The Celtics offense was disgusting again. And I thought it was even more disgusting in game two than it was in game one when they took 60 threes. I don't know how many they took last night, but it wasn't 60. I don't even know where to start, Fred. You know what? I do Know where to start. I'm going to start a couple places. It's as if they've lost any layer below the first layer of their offense. Like, I promise you that at some point this was a team that could run multiple things on the same possession. I promise you it happened. Here are just like three possessions from down the stretch last night. Just going to narrate what happened. Okay, Fred, you were there, you saw it. 2:25 in the fourth quarter. They run the Tatum staggered pick and roll with Towns's guy and Brunson's guy. Hey, bring your weak links up to me. One of them is going to switch on to me. No, OG Anunoby navigates fine. Jason Tatum comes to the other end of that pick and roll. Ogn and Obi's right in front of him like, hey, I'm here. Your play failed. There's 13 seconds left on the shot clock. Jason Tatum's like, you know what the best I can think of is? I'm just going to dribble around a little bit and take a fade away jumper over Ogn and Obi, the best defender on the other team on the baseline. Miss. Number of passes on the possession, Fred? Zero. Next possession, Jalen Brown, Jrue Holiday. Pick and roll. Drew Holiday is being guarded by Jalen Brunson. Hey, come up, come up. By the way, Drew Holiday beat the hell out of Jalen Brunson in the first four minutes of the game. Got the Knicks to switch Jalen Brunson onto Derrick White, which should be a huge win for Boston's offense. And yet we never saw it again. Ever, ever. They put him back on Drew Holiday at the end of the game. And the Celtics players coaches were like, did they even realize? Did they remember what happened to the first four minutes of game? Anyway, 1:50 left in the fourth quarter. Jaylen Brown rejects the screen, gets the switch. Jalen Brunson's on him, takes a leaning, falling like 8 to 10 footer from the dotted line. Miss. Not a terrible shot. Number of passes on the possession, 0. Switch again occurs with 13 on the shot clock. Shot clock, for those who are unfamiliar, Fred is 24 seconds. So there are 13 seconds on it. Not even half of it has elapsed. I promise you, you're allowed to do something else. You're allowed to run a second action. 115 in the fourth quarter. Sideline out of bounce play. Brown, Holiday, pick and roll again. Brunson switch again. Jaylen Brown with I don't know how many on the shot clock. I didn't write it down. Probably enough time takes. I'm going to say the worst shot I've ever seen Jaylen Brown take in a basketball game. Leaning forward into Jalen Brunson's chin from the left elbow, I guess, grifting for a foul. By the way, you're the same guy who bullied Josh Hart seven times in the first half of the game and you're taking this shot. Number of passes on the possession, Fred.
- [12:18]
Fred Katz
Zero.
- [12:19]
Zach Lowe
Zero. I promise you, this is a team that used to have layers to its offense that used to be like, oh, that thing failed. How about Derrick White, who's being guarded a lot by Jalen Brunson? Set a flare screen, run a split action with Jason Tatum. See what happens. Get the Knicks moving. What the hell happened to your team? It devolved into a puddle of nothing. It's on the coaches, it's on the players. It was disgusting. You're allowed to pass. Like I, it's. I sound like an old man. It was gross. And the Knicks were fully up for whatever shit Boston was throwing at them. Credit Brunson and Kat for holding up and not being the Wheat Links. By the way, flashing back a year ago, that Minnesota first round series again, Phoenix told us something about Cat and it kind of got lost in the shuffle because the Minnesota Denver series was so epic. He guarded Durant in that series because he had to. That was the only matchup that really made sense. And he did okay. Like, he didn't do great, but it wasn't embarrassing. And he actually had some really good stretches. That's been on my mind watching him switch into series. That's just a stretch run, Fred. What am I missing? And then the Knicks are scoring. Bridges is going crazy. Hart's going crazy. Brunson does what Brunson does. Basket, foul at the end of the game. Tatum, of course, doesn't even get a real shot off at the end. Am I missing any, any other notes from the last four minutes of this grotesque sham mockery of Boston crunch time offense?
- [13:46]
Fred Katz
So Boston averaged 26 assists a game during the regular season. They have 35 total over the.
- [13:52]
Zach Lowe
They have nine baskets in the fourth quarter. In two games, they are nine of 45.
- [13:58]
Fred Katz
It's unbelievable. And I do think we've mentioned the switching a bunch of times and I do think a lot of it has to do with not even necessarily the quality of the Knick switches because I think the Nick. The execution on the Knick switches kind of been up and down depending on which guys we're talking about. But just the fact that it's actually happening. I mean, look, Orlando switched so much against Boston and this is not the first time that a team has just switched a bunch against Boston. Boston saw more switching than pretty much any other team in the league during the regular season. But they are reacting to these switches completely differently. And I think when the Celtics offense is going at its best over these last however many years, they've been really good. It's because of their side to side action. Once the ball, they are, they are as good as any other offense in the league, if not the single best in the league.
- [14:45]
Zach Lowe
To side. Is that how you pronounce that?
- [14:47]
Fred Katz
Yeah, yeah.
- [14:48]
Zach Lowe
To see day or how do I say that?
- [14:51]
Fred Katz
It's when the ball is on one side of the court and goes to.
- [14:55]
Zach Lowe
The other, you're allowed to go to the side. Like from one side. That's allowed.
- [14:59]
Fred Katz
It's unbelievable. And you could do it without dribbling as well. And, and the Celtics, when they, when they go swing from right to the left side of the court, they, they are deathly. When they can go side to side twice in the same possession, they are better at executing off of that than any other team in the NBA until three days ago. And, and I think what's happening with the switching is, it's not. We focus so much on the individual matchups that are created from switching. Okay, Jalen Brunson has switched on to Jason Tatum, or Cat has switched onto Jason Tatum, and now it's Tatum versus Brunson. And that's a mismatch. But there's the way you can fan out and there's the way that it affects the rest of the defense. And what's happening here is the Knicks are able to stay at home on Boston's perimeter shooters a lot more. And it's closing up passing lanes, it's closing up the ability to take threes even though Boston took 60 in the first game. But a lot of those were, I mean, Jayson Tatum took 14 threes off the dribble in in game one. Like a lot of those are not the Boston esque threes that we're used to seeing. Even though they're unquestionably missing good looks throughout this entire series. I think the way that the Celtics are responding to the Knicks defensive strategy is something that I've wondered if the Knicks have banked on this because the Celtics, if they have a flaw, it is. It is that they know their identity and they know their strategy is to go out and get threes. And I Think at times they, it can slip their mind that as important as shooting threes is, creating threes is more important. I think the Celtics have been really good at shooting threes in this series. They've taken a hundred over the first two games on the dot.
- [16:38]
Zach Lowe
Do they get a trophy for that, by the way? Do they get any awards? Because I, I looked at the tracking data today. Guess who has won the shot quality battle according to the algorithms on Second Spectrum through two games? Boston. Boston has a higher expected field goal percentage when you account for who is taking the shots, and they have underperformed that field goal percentage by 16 percentage points. When you account for again, who's taking the shot, how much distance there is. The Knicks are a little bit below them and have also underperformed by three points. You know how many wins you get credited for for winning the shot quality battle? Fred? Zero wins. Congratulations. You won the shot quality battle. You are down.02. Porzingis is absence, not absence. He played 14 minutes and he played okay, but 14 minutes is like, not what you brought him in for. It's a big deal because when the Knicks do switch and make it a, a one on one or two versus two kind of game, what they're betting on is, yeah, Tatum, you might beat whoever off the dribble and penetrate. You might be Cat off the dribble or Mitchell Robinson off the dribble and penetrate into the lane. If Cornet's there, we're going to have a defender there. Even if Horford is there sometimes Horford's not always spaced the way Porzingis is. There's going to be a defender there and it's going to be two on two. And sometimes you're going to win, and sometimes we're going to win. We're going to make a force you to take a tough shot at the rim, block, deflection, whatever. And everyone else can stay home. If Porzingis is out there spotting up around the perimeter, that becomes a one on one battle and it becomes a dunk. So that's a big, that's a, that's a big factor here. And the fact that, like, no one seems to know what the hell is going on with him is kind of a, like, it's a crazy story that, I don't know, I haven't been able to get an answer. It's. It's crazy. I, I want to, I want to, I want to go off more on the threes. Can I do that, please?
- [18:29]
Fred Katz
It's your podcast. You've. You've Been waiting. We've been waiting all year, Zach, to hear about you go off on different topics. Please be my.
- [18:37]
Zach Lowe
It's not even just the.
- [18:38]
Fred Katz
Be my guest.
- [18:39]
Zach Lowe
So I take notes, running notes during all these games to help me go rewatch them. And I have a little shorthand that I use is remember this if. And it's my way of saying this was like a little interesting swing here. Remember this if the Knicks come back to win the game. 7353. Boston's up 20. Derek White takes a three, misses rebound comes right back to him. He takes another three. This one tightly contested. It's a miss and I think the Knicks got to run out out of it and hit a three. I just, I just hit that as a. Remember this if. Because I'm watch. There's like three minutes left in the third quarter or something like that. 15 minutes left in the game. You're up by 20 points. You're allowed. You don't there. There's a big gap between shooting an instantaneous three with a hand in your face and playing prevent offense. Huge middle ground. You're allowed to play time and score a little bit when you're up by 20 in a finite game. Second half, ones and twos help you. They're good. The Knicks need you to get zeros. You are doing a favor when you waste no time and get a shot up. That is percentage wise. Yes. The expected points for possession on that is higher than a short two or a rim attack, whatever. Great expected points per possession gets you nothing. It got you zero. Another one. Fourth quarter, nine minutes left. They're still up 16. Al Horford catches an airball, puts it back in to put them up by 16. There's like nine minutes left. Steals the inbounds pass from Josh hart. He's like 12 to 15ft from the rim on the left wing. Dude, you're 38. It's cool. It's a big moment. It's a great play again. Time and score. Instead of like kicking it out, resetting, he just wildly throws his body at Josh Hart and takes this like eight foot hook shot. And I wrote down, remember this if because it's just. Why are you always going for the knockout punch? You are ahead on every judge's scorecard in the 10th round of a 12 round fight. Just hit some jabs, settle the hell down and play the time and score. And the example everyone highlighted was when Tatum, up seven, gets the ball in the right corner on a transition chance and there is nobody between him and the Basket. It's just like, you could not have more space. Everyone's highlighted it. Brunson's under the rim with Al Horford. It's a dunk. It's a drive and kick. It's something other than an instantaneous. Up seven. Time and score. Time and score. Just drives me insane. And the Knicks. The Knicks deserve credit a for executing all their stuff well on both ends of the floor, because you can't have a comeback like this. It's not a comeback only, and it's not a collapse only. It's both. The Knicks deserve credit for executing on both sides of the floor and defending in a way that has clearly unnerved the Celtics. I have never seen Tatum this out of sync. He's driving into crowds that are obvious. He's driving into Kristaps Porzingis, rolling to the rim. He's driving at Al Horford, at OG Anunoby. He threw. I can't remember who he beat off the dribble, but he beat someone off the dribble, got in the lane, and it was one of those two on two battles at the rim. And Cat was starting to rotate over to him. He reacted like Cat was Victor Wembanyama and was like, oh, my God, Cat's coming. I gotta get rid of this ball. And threw a horrible, inaccurate lob pass to Luke Cornett that was behind him like, it's Carl Anthony Towns, man. It's not freaking Tekembe Mutombo. Rest in peace, go at him. It's. They are. It's disgusting. And the Knicks are the mentally tougher, stronger team right now. I'm done. And that was it. That was all my. That was all my. All my notes.
- [22:35]
Fred Katz
Don't be done. Don't be done. There's got to be. There's got to be something else in there.
- [22:39]
Zach Lowe
Hey, man, look, you spent all last playoffs hearing people. You spent all last regular season hearing people talk about, well, you know, Is this real? 66 wins. Is this real? All last playoffs and offseason hearing people say, Miami injured, Indiana injured, Cleveland injured, Dallas overmatched. And you own, to your credit, you owned it. You were like, we're going for the repeat this year. Joe Missoula leaned right into it. That answers every question. The repeat answers all the questions. And this is the effort you're putting forth in the first two games of your first real playoff series. My God, we talk about the three.
- [23:15]
Fred Katz
Ball as a high variance way to win all the time, and I think sometimes we don't talk about it enough in the other direction too, which is what you're getting at right now, right? Like we look at NCAA tournament upsets and every time an 11 seed beats a 3 seed and goes to the final Four or whatever, so often it's because some random dude who you've never heard of hit nine threes and that swung the game. And we talk about it so much. I've received so many texts from friends and people who don't work in basketball. Why are all these comebacks happening in the NBA now? And so much of that is because, well, the three ball changes things. And you think about that is like a team can get hot. They hit three threes on three straight possessions and all of a sudden the 12 point game is a three point game and you're right back in it. And a double digit lead isn't what it used to be. The opposite is true too because the variance goes in the other direction. And I totally agree with you. I think sometimes when we look at the shot quality and we look at the shot profile and just to break down more what you were saying, like the, the shot quality data on second Spectrum, which accounts for the, the player who's actually taking the shots, like they're vastly, like the Celtics are vastly undershooting what they're at. Their effective field goal percentage is like according to Those, this is 100 game series, right.
- [24:29]
Zach Lowe
It'll even out by game 57. Exactly right.
- [24:32]
Fred Katz
The whole point of that stat, it is a, it's a projection of if you continue this process over a very large sample size, this is most likely where the numbers will regress, improve to that is the point of that stat. But at some point, like you got to actually make the shots. And if you're not making the shots, you got to take ones that are lesser variance when you're up 20, because you don't want high variance when you're up 20, you want high variance when you're down 20. And if you're not the ones creating the high variance, which by the way, the Knicks are, aren't. The Knicks are a team that finished like bottom 10 in the league in free throw rate. They were a team that finished 28th in the league in three point attempt rate. Like they aren't a very high variance team. They were fifth in the league in offensive rating, but after January 1st, they were 13th, 14th in points per possession. Like this is, this is a team that is good at what it's good at, but it does not play a high variance form of basketball. If you're down 20 and you're the Knicks. And you are. You are just. You are glowing at the fact that the Celtics are the ones creating the high variance basketball for you, because that's.
- [25:41]
Zach Lowe
The only way you're coming back from.
- [25:42]
Fred Katz
Down 20 in the second half is to create some sort of element of that. And it's just in some ways, the Celtics are the ones who are doing themselves in with that sort of decision making.
- [25:52]
Zach Lowe
Well, look, hey, this is all fun and cool to talk about. Jason Tatum is 12 of 42 for the series. 12 of 42. Now, the risk, Zach, can I give you one? Maybe the risk is what we should say. Maybe the wrist is bothering him. We don't know the extent to which that may or may not be true. But 12 of 42, all this other stuff is cool. Like, if he doesn't make shots, give me the other one. Then we'll finish up on this.
- [26:14]
Fred Katz
Jason Tatum and Jalen Brown have isolated 37 times in this series as a second spectrum. They've isolated 37 times in this series over the first two games. Directly off of those isolations, the Celtics have scored 30 points. That's an 81.
- [26:30]
Zach Lowe
I'm off. I'm surprised that it's that high. I thought you were going to be like 16. And again, Jaylen Brown did beat up Josh Hart a little bit earlier in the game. Hey, look, look, we're a lot. We're about to learn a lot about the Celtics. We all know what's at stake for them both, you know, in semi, validating last year's title in the eyes of whatever group of fans you want to talk about and what's coming in the off season in terms of potential roster changes, financial crunch. Like, it's a tight window. Tight window. This is a great road team. Some of the best road teams in recent NBA history. Sure, they can bank on a game that's coming, maybe where they make 20 threes. That's one win, right? They still got to get three more, and they're not going to get three more unless they play better. They are fully capable of winning this series. They are fully capable of winning the next four games in a row in this series. That's how good they are now. They're probably not that. That good. Peak Celtics good because of whatever's going on with Porzingis. Brown's a little banged up. Tam's a little banged up. Drew's a little banged up. Everyone's a little banged up. The Knicks guys have played like the equivalent of five seasons in one season. The way Tibbs plays them in minutes. Are there things the Celtics could do? Absolutely. You know what I like last night, Fred? When Jalen Brunson was on Derrick White, you got to reorient your whole offense around that because Derek White's your most creative, unpredictable offensive player. There was a sequence when they said, you know what, Jason Tatum, you having the ball is not going great. Derek White's got Jalen Brunson on him. We're going to run White, Tatum, pick and rolls and use you as a screener. Do more of that. Get a little more creative. If Mitchell Robinson's on Kristoff's Porzingis, which I don't know why the Knicks are matching up that way. When it's Horford Porzingis, I'd put him on Horford, Spam, Porzingis, pick and pops, see if you can get him going. There's stuff they can do, but if they don't get out of their own way with these zero past possessions and just crazy decision making Whether they're up 20 down, the Knicks are going to win this series because the Knicks are the steadier, steelier team right now. And I, I think the last time I was in this much shock at an ongoing playoff collapse was Nuggets Clippers in the bubble in 2020 when I just sat like, what is so. The Clippers are just disintegrating game after game after game. That's how bad this is. And the Knicks are like, hey, let's keep playing. You want to play a fifth quarter, sixth quarter? Like, we're good. Unbelievable. Any party thoughts before I move on to some other stuff?
- [28:59]
Fred Katz
No, let's. Let's do this.
- [29:01]
Zach Lowe
We should briefly note, resuming tonight, the only game. One game tonight, Fred, what am I going to do?
- [29:08]
Fred Katz
You're going to have to get a life, Zack. Have to get lives.
- [29:11]
Zach Lowe
You know what I'm doing today? I'm driving the swim practice carpool. Actually, it's me and. Me and three 10 year old girls. It's a great time. It sounds it, everybody, I'll tell you, everybody who told me the carpool is where you learn all the real stuff. I really underestimated how true that is. I just drive and they are so unconcerned with adults. Like they just think every adult is lame and stupid and uncool that they just don't even realize you're there. And they start having these conversations where it's like you're all insane, like all of your ideas. They had one long conversation where one of the girls said, oh my God, a white van. Pass, guys, I'm afraid of white vans. And my daughter was like, why are you afraid of white van? And the other person was like, well, because that's where. Like people who drive white vans kidnap children. And then the third girl was like, but what about blue vans? Do people in blue vans kidnap children? Why is it just white? And it just went on for eight minutes. So that's what I have in store for me.
- [30:10]
Fred Katz
This is the pregame locker room availability of swim practice. This is what it is. We go in the locker room pregame and we walk around and people think we're just interviewing people, but we're not. We're just.
- [30:20]
Zach Lowe
They had a one conversation like six minutes long. That was. What is diabetes? Like, what? I don't. Someone had heard of diabetes. And they were like, it's when you have too much sugar. No, it's when you don't have enough sugar. And you. And it was. Anyway, we should mention Warriors Wolves is that game tonight. And Steph Curry will not play in it. Hamstring strain. He's going to be reevaluated in a week, which, as you know, does not mean he's necessarily going to play in a week. The earliest he would come back is game five under that timetable. And look, injuries are a part of it. They've been a. They've been. The warriors have benefited from injuries and gotten slammed by injuries in playoff runs during this semi dynastic period they've had. And we don't need to go through all of them. It's part of it. It's. It still really sucks because they go to Minnesota, they steal game one. Pat Spencer hits a sky hook at some point in the game. And it's just such a delight watching this dude at 37 who's one of the most beloved teammates in the history of the NBA. Obviously a one of one player, both in quality and style, still doing it at this level, still just breaking down the keel. Alexander off the dribble for eight. Eight dribbles and jab steps and drilling a three in his face. Still improbably getting to play meaningful second round basketball with a shot at going to the conference finals with the whole team other than Draymond Green and Steve Kerr essentially turned over around him from the glory years. And now he's out a week. And look, opportunity knocks for Minnesota. You answered it with 9,000 missed three pointers for the second game in a row in game one. Opportunity knocks. They should be able to beat the warriors without Curry and the Big question is, how are the warriors going to score without Curry? How are they going to score when Butler's on the bench? But this is the Jimmy Butler time, and he tried to summon it in game one late when it got close. Ran a lot more pick and rolls than he's been running as a Warrior. Had one of his trademark reject the screen and with everything I got accelerated to the basket. He's dealing with that glute injury, right? Roasted Rudy Gobert on a switch one time and he's guarding Rudy Gobert a lot on the other end. And so he'll have that cross match. I just don't. I, I'm, I'm a little. I, I need to see it. Because the Jimmy Butler I've seen in the last two weeks does not have enough in the gas tank to do what he needs to do now. Like, he couldn't do really anything with Dante DiVincenzo, who was guarding him as the primary guy. Ant guarded him a lot. One of the benefits of Curry being out from Minnesota is they can shift the assignments so that Julius Randall doesn't have to guard Jimmy Butler and they can move everyone around. And Demons Shenzel is the smallest guy on the floor when they take Mike Conley out and when Mike Conley is on the floor, they're just going to have to go at him every single possession and not waste any possessions that could be anything. Like, just like if they, they just have to be calculated about what they do. There are possessions where if a small guys on Ant run the Ant, I assume Gary Payton the second will start or Moses Moody will start. Moses Moody is not playing well. It's probably going to be GP2 to guard Ant. Try some Ant, Randall pick and rolls. Try some Randall. Whoever Buddy healed his guarding pick and rolls. Just like be calculated about it. And if they're calculated about it, you know Quentin Post is on the floor. Play him off the floor, go at him. They should be able to do it. But Jimmy Butler, man, he's in my notes. I'm starting to call him the finagler. He just finagles points like you watch these games and he finishes with 20 points. I'm like, how did he do that? And they're like, well, there was an airball that he saw coming and nobody else saw coming, and he rebounded and put it back in the basket. There was a loose ball that squirted to him with Divincenzo on him. He catches it, realizes he's got momentum, elbows DiVincenzo out of the way. Short jumper. He seizes opportunities because he sees them before other people do and he just finagles these points. But finagling by the finagler is not going to be enough. He's going to have to be playoff Jimmy, I think for the warriors to do something here.
- [34:22]
Fred Katz
Yeah, I agree. And he tried to take that over a little bit late late in that game. As you mentioned, more pick and rolls, more isolations against Steven Chenzo. And I think he did a pretty good job getting switches onto him too. There's even a play earlier in that game where he's got Jaden McDaniels on him and he runs a little, a little around, a little pin down and ends up getting it on at the top of the key. And, and, and then he ends up going at kind of weaker defenders. The thing is with, with Minnesota is they just have an insane amount of strength on the perimeter. Defensively, Nikhil Alexander Walker is as good. I mean, people talk about McDaniels who's awesome and Ant who fights and Divince is feisty. Nikhil Alexander Walker is. I love the way that he guards, screens. He, he is, he gets in this insanely low defensive stance and he's like a spider. He just springs by a screener and he always executes the screen coverage properly. He's been struggling with his shot as every single Timberwolf has apparently. You know, you talk, want to talk about shot variant Zach? The, the worst shot quality. The, the, the most the team has underperformed its shot quality in a single game during the playoffs was Minnesota against the Lakers in that clincher when I think they went one for 100,000 from three. And this is on three point shot quality and the SEC. And the second worst was a Memphis game against the Thunder. And then the third worst performance was Minnesota game one when they shot 5 of 29 from three. Eventually some shots will go in. Eventually. Anthony Edwards is not going to start a game over 11 from the field or whatever he was.
- [36:02]
Zach Lowe
Finish strong to his credit.
- [36:04]
Fred Katz
Finish strong to his credit. I do think what Curry's absence allows, allows Minnesota to do is it allows them to make sure that those sorts of matchups with Butler, they can load up on him a little bit more. And they have so many strong perimeter defenders there that it's, it's really going to have to open up Butler's ability to be able to create on the perimeter. And they're already, they're not guarding Gary Payton the second and Moody is struggling. And if they're going to have to Guard Payton played the most minutes off the bench for Golden State during game one, but they're not guarding him. And to his credit, he hit a huge three during crunch time, which kind of staved off like a sort of kind of fake comeback late in that game. But they are just sinking guys into the lane. They are sinking Julius Randle into the lane and, and they are sinking Rudy Gobert into the lane. And not even, it's not even that they're helping off of him. It's like just nobody is guarding him. And it's going to be very difficult for Jimmy Butler to create when he's got an awesome on ball defender on him basically all the time. And they've got guys packing the paint like crazy and other guys are going to have to hit shots. And I, I do think like the Jimmy Butler finagling is going to have to happen to a degree because the finagling happens when he's on the ball too. It's a good way to describe Jimmy Butler happens when he's got the ball. Also because the Jimmy Butler, the Jimmy Butler free throws are, are finagling the way that Butler will.
- [37:31]
Zach Lowe
But they're earned. They're not, they're not grifted. I think that's an important distinction. Like, he just has such a great sense of angles and timing and anticipation that when he doesn't have it, when he doesn't have his A plus juice and legs, he just finds these little creases. That's why he's a great cutter too. He just senses these opportunities to get a tiny advantage. And once he has that advantage, he's going to ring something out of it.
- [37:56]
Fred Katz
Yeah, and, and look, six. He had 67 front court touches in game two. He was averaging 40 front court touches a game during the playoffs going into that. Like Steph went down and they were like, you gotta run things. But on the other side, like Draymond Green might not hit a ton of threes during game two like he did in game one. You might not have that sort of stuff. And especially if you've got like Draymond and, and, and, and Peyton on the court together, the spacing is going to be interesting. And Butler is excellent in tight spaces. He is going to have to figure out ways to be able to create out of those tight spaces, not just for himself, but he's going to have to figure out ways to do it. And, and, and can I just add one more thing? I know you love Jonathan Kuminga.
- [38:40]
Zach Lowe
It's, it's not going Great. He did make a three. And the lights, the lights flickered in Kaminga keys. The lights flickered and they went off again.
- [38:47]
Fred Katz
I want to credit a Jonathan Kaminga thing because he did something which I don't know. I'm not, I'm not at those games. I've been, I've been on the Knicks games, but I, I, I famously and proudly have no life at all. So I will watch every single game that is in existence. And there was a moment with Kamingo where I'm like, I put myself into Steve Kerr's shoes and I'm like, Steve Kerr must be so thrilled. There is a play where Kuminga's off the ball. They help off of him. He's on the left wing and he, he just, he notices his defender turns away from him. The second he notices defender turn his head, he cuts the lane. He ends up getting a dunk and a half court possession. And that's the.
- [39:28]
Zach Lowe
It's almost like he's not a dope, Fred. It's almost like he's not a dope and maybe you shouldn't have ruined his confidence for an entire half season, but here we are.
- [39:37]
Fred Katz
That's the kind of stuff that the warriors want to see out of him. That's, that's the kind of stuff that, like, okay, you're going to play this complex offense with a lot of cutting and a lot of recognition, a lot of just. You have to be able to improv properly kind of on both ends, because that's what. How Draymond sets up the defense, too. And you have to be able to improv properly. Like, they're going to need that kind of stuff, too. The off ball movement of just like we notice. Okay, you're helping off of me. You're, you're packing the paint like crazy or you're locked in on Jimmy or whatever it is. I'm not just going to cut because I think, people think, okay, you're open cut. There are so many times where, where players will say, oh, I'm open cut. And Kaminga does this sometimes where it's like, all right, I'm open cut. And they cut right into the driving lane. And all of a sudden now the driving lane is somehow even more crowded than it was before. And what you want to do is you want to cut with pace and you want to cut with playing with speeds and you want to cut to the actual right spot. That was a really good play by Kuminga. The warriors are generally really good with that. But all that stuff is going to be so much more important because all those crazy cuts that we see in warriors games all the time, so many of them happen because the defense is having a nervous breakdown about the fact that Stephen Curry just exists and is there and now that Curry's not there, they are going to have to find ways to be able to take advantage of those holes without those sorts of nervous breakdowns. Is even when Buddy Heals is draining all of his threes. Like nobody creates that sort of effect. Nobody creates that kind of pull other than Curry.
- [41:16]
Zach Lowe
And the way Minnesota, the way Minnesota was matching up was going to unlock some Curry green pick and rolls that were not really available to them or that effective against Houston because of the where Shen Goon was guarding and now, now he's gone. Somehow amid all we haven't addressed the most heartbreaking loss in a series of heartbreaking losses, which was Cavs Pacers Game two. That series actually resumes tomorrow. It's Thursday morning. Right now we don't know the status of Evan Mobley and Darius Garland and DeAndre Hunter and it's kind of pointless to like deep dive into Game three without knowing who the hell is going to play. I will just say I don't really understand what happened at the end of the game. Still having watched it five times, lane violations galore, just botched inbounds plays, wasted timeouts, Halliburton heroics. It was one of the more unbelievable collapses, slash comebacks I've ever seen and a total gut punch for the Cavs, who looked as if they were going to get the spirited home Game two win. Just like the Celtics did. By the way, Celtics cavs being down O2 is just unbelievable. You ready for like a Knicks Pacers conference finals? Like it's 1994.
- [42:28]
Fred Katz
I was going to say it's 1999. We got to get Larry Johnson in the building and and and we'll be good to go. He would Reggie Miller calling the game.
- [42:35]
Zach Lowe
He would be in the building. Reggie Miller seems to have developed a soft spot for the Knicks, which I kind of like is a good late career turn for him anyway. Like stress goes bananas. Donovan Mitchell, honestly, I don't say this lightly. His Game 2 performance conjured the image of Michael Jordan in Game 7 of the 1998 Conference Finals between the Bulls and the Pacers, where the Bulls had nothing and the Pacers were winning the game. And all Michael Jordan could do is like, I'm just going to get to the line over and over again. I'm just going to throw myself at the rim going to throw myself into contact and I'm going to will us over the finish line. And Donovan Mitchell, forget the absolutely nuclear dunk on Pascal Siakam which was unbelievable. He was willing them to victory and they still should have won the game. Ty Jerome turned into a pumpkin. No trash talking, no chest puffing, didn't even want to shoot the ball by the time he was bench. He needs to g be unpumpkin. And can I just give you a stat you can before we quickly exit here? Andrew Nemhard, pull up three Andrew Nemhard pull up three pointers. Okay, regular season 12 of 44. So made 12 pull up threes in however many games he played lots of games last season. Regular season 8 of 36. So that's 20 combined in probably something like 150 games. 2025 playoffs 8 of 15. He's made as many pull up threes in how many playoff games have they played now? 7 as he has in the entire regular season last year and almost as many as in the entire regular season this year. And I just want to give the Pacers a shout out because people are going to remark again at the injury luck they have benefited from against Milwaukee last season, against New York last season when the Knicks basically ran out of players by the end of the series against Milwaukee again this season and now against the Cavaliers with three of their top six players hurt or at least hurt for game two. We'll see who plays in game three. You got to beat the team that's in front of you and they beat the team that's in front of them and they're just a really good, well constructed team. We have a long sample size now of this team being really good and if you go back and you just trace the tentacles of like the Paul George trade and on their asset management has been like really underrated. How pristine it is. Like Oladipo becomes Lavert becomes the draft picks to get them. Nemhard and Shepherd. I believe Oladipo comes in the Paul George trade. They get n Smith and I, I am an original niece Smith island resident to the point that when he was being benched by Boston, I ran into the Celtics in the playoffs that year in Miami and I ran into him and his agent. I've told this story before and I said look man, I'm not kissing up to you because we just met. We're talking like I've been saying they should play you and he's freaking good. And by the way, remember this if that, that, that remember this if end of third quarter, Cleveland in total control of the game. 10, 6 seconds left or something. Carlisle brings Halliburton in for the last play of the. Of the quarter. He runs like a fly pattern down the middle. Inbounds pass to him, kick to NE Smith, corner three. Just. That's the stuff. That's the stuff. Every possession matters, that stuff. So Indiana has done an amazing job and it just is shitty that the Cavs have this absolutely magical season. They actually kind of rest everyone and manage minutes and all of this. And at the worst possible time, it is being undone partially by injuries, partially by self imposed errors, and partially by a very good Pacers team. And I just, again, it's, it's. We don't know who's playing. I just want to see the healthy teams play. I want to see Cleveland have a real honest chance at this because it's a bummer. But what a, what a freaking finish the other night. I mean that was one where it was like, I mean, when niece Smith got that dunk on a free throw, I was like, was he, was he fouled? Did he commit a foul? How many people committed lane violations? Are we just not going to call that anymore? Because I'm cool. Like if someone dunks and we're like, you know what, That's a cool dunk. Like, I guess we're just cool with that. Unbelievable.
- [46:51]
Fred Katz
Zach. Niece Smith is, is so physical now. And I remember when he came out in the preseason last year and he was just guarding dudes in the preseason, I was like, damn, Neesmith got really good. Nemhard's very similar. Nemhard defensively is one of the most underrated players in the league.
- [47:11]
Zach Lowe
You know what's interesting about that though, Fred, is. I agree with you. And he's very good and everyone sings his praises. And then once in a while, hint, hint, he comes into a matchup and it's like, oh, he can't do that. And one of those was Jalen Brunson in the playoffs last year was like, they, we're gonna have to put someone else on Jalen Brunson. Just put a little, little pin in that.
- [47:29]
Fred Katz
And Niecemith did a great job on him. Nismit did a great job on Brunson. Like, I thought Neesmith was one of the best Brunson defenders that, that I've seen since Brunson kind of hit elite status. I mean, to your point, on Nemhard's jump shooting, I don't know, maybe, maybe playoff. Nemhardt's a thing like Last year game seven on the road at MSG. He literally shot 100% in a game seven in a game that the cell that the Pacers literally broke the record for field goal percentage in any playoff game, not just the Game seven. And they did it on a road Game seven in a crazy MSG environment. The thing with the Pacers that I think a lot of people forget and obviously the fact that the Cavs are missing guys is the most important thing here. I also find Darius Garland's importance to just be unbelievably underrated in terms of success.
- [48:18]
Zach Lowe
He's an All Star point card, but.
- [48:20]
Fred Katz
It'S even more than that. Like, yes, he's an All Star, but people talk about the Cavs as if like this is Donovan Mitchell's team. And I get it from a status standpoint, it is. And if you ask me who the best player on the Cavs is, I will tell you. Donovan Mitchell, however, who runs more pick and rolls than anybody else on that team? Darius Garland. Who's their leading facilitator? Darius Garland. Who's the one who creates the most threes for his teammates? Darius Garland. Who's the one who basically runs as many isolations as Donovan Mitchell? Darius Garland. Who's the one who gets into the paint and has those jump passes that create all these corner threes, which is like part of the strength of the Cleveland offense. It's Darius Garland. And not having that guy is kind of like not having your engine. That being said, that being said, one thing that really intrigued me about this matchup and I'm not going to sit here and say I thought Indiana was going to win. But one thing that really intrigued me about it is as much as Indiana's reputation is this high powered, fast paced offensive team. Since they started out 10 and 15 to the year, they've been a really good defensive team. They've been a really good defensive team. And even when they weren't a very good defensive team last year, one thing that they have been really good at for the last two years is preventing three point attempts. They gave up, I think the lowest three point attempt rate in the NBA last year. They are schematically designed in order to not give up threes. They don't really like helping, they like staying on corner shooters. And I think one of the stories of the Eastern Conference playoffs right now is we just talked about it with Boston and New York. Cleveland and Boston are the two best three point shooting teams in the NBA. Cleveland was I think fourth in volume, second in percentage. Boston took more Threes made more threes in a single season than any team ever has in a single season ever. And and right now those two teams are down two zero and Cleveland is like 10 for 38 in per game over these first two games. Three and that was after they just annihilated Miami from three. Just, just destroyed Miami from beyond the arc. And I think the Pacers have done a really excellent job at the point of attack being able to keep guys away from being able to create threes. And I think schematically they've done a wonderful job in being able to help on drivers but still being able to kind of scurry out to the three point arc, run guys off the three point arc, prevent attempts and, and contest really well. Which is something that I think the Knicks have done really well too as well. Like we talk about not all three point attempts being created equal. Like the Knicks are doing an excellent job.
- [50:56]
Zach Lowe
Well they mentioned I I'm glad you mentioned that because to wrap up like I mentioned, those switching two on two battles in the paint, the three wings around Brunson and Cat are doing an unbelievable job just taking up space and sliding this way and sliding that way and making Boston's ball handlers sink. Wait, is that, is that driving land? Oh no it's not. Is that guy over there? Oh no he's not. And that's big two Pacers things. Then we're wrapping up number one. Tyrese Halliburton most overrated player was ridiculous. The players are wrong. I had him second team all NBA until the very end. I flipped him for Cat. He was a no brainer all NBA player this year. I'm very curious to see if he's going to make it. I to me he was a must have number two and this is my concluding thought and I'm going to save most of it for another day. There's a wonderful story to be written about Miles Turner who has been in trade rumors all the time, has been almost traded at least one time that I can think of, is always somehow coming up short of the player everybody dreams him to be and yet is just rock fucking solid. More so on offense even than defense at this point, but is just helping you in lots of different ways all the time. And I kind of hope now that he's a career Pacer after all the trade rumors he's like Mr. Pacer now. That's for another day. Fred Katz at the Athletic does great work covering the entire NBA but he's on this wild Nick Celtic series Madison Square Garden is going to be rocking on Saturday, sir. Enjoy it.
- [52:26]
Fred Katz
Yes, I'm. I'm it's going to be crazy. Those playoff games get wild. Thanks for having me, Zach. I appreciate it.
- [52:33]
Zach Lowe
The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA playoffs are underway, so don't miss your chance to bet on all the clutch shots and legendary performances with FanDuel, America's number one one sportsbook. FanDuel is the best place to find all your favorite player props. And now you can make a heads up play with player performance trends. That means whether you want to bet on a player to score 30 points or put up a triple double, you can check out the latest stats and see who's hot without leaving the app. Plus, after the game tips off, you can combine live prop bets into a same game parlay for a chance to win big. If you don't already have FanDuel, it's not too late to get in on all the playoff action. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins. So visit FanDuel.com low to join today. Make every moment more with FanDuel. Official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 or over in President select states or 18 and over in President D.C. first online real money wager only five dollar deposit required bonus issues Bonus issued is now withdrawable Bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by HubSpot. Growing a business can feel impossible, but HubSpot's customer platform can help. It's powered by a suite of AI tools called Breez, so you can generate more leads, close more deals and scale your service fast with breeze agents handle the busy work. Customers are cutting sales cycles in half and saving hours on work each week. Best of all, you can see results in days, not months. Visit HubSpot.comai to learn more or just tap the banner. All right, it's time for an interlude between playoff series talk because we are 7296 hours. Something like that from my favorite event of the NBA calendar and for sure the stupidest event of the NBA calendar. The NBA draft lottery where 15, 14 highly educated, Uber competitive, top of their field. Outthink everybody, search for every edge to get this player in the on a two way contract because maybe he could become a whatever. Sit in a room and watch ping pong balls fly around a 40 year old lottery machine like you see on the local TV news and see whether their franchise gets Cooper Flag or whether their franchise gets somebody who's less exciting than Cooper Flag. But they're all geniuses and they're all great team building experts. They're at the mercy of a stupid lottery machine. Jay, Kyle, man, how are you, sir? It's such a pleasure to have you on.
- [55:04]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah, it's a pleasure to be here. You know, it's a little weird for me. I've, I've had the privilege in my like basketball career coming to this later in life of just meeting a lot of people that I enjoyed over the years like Bill and, and this one, you know, is, yeah, just getting to talk to you is a little, is a little surreal. Not trying to weird you out. But I was like, oh, Zach Lowe's in my life now. This is awesome. And we start talking about the Simpsons immediately. Of all things, right?
- [55:27]
Zach Lowe
I 90s Simpsons. I I'll say it again. It's the best thing that's ever been on television. Don't at me. If people at anymore at him, I'll jump in.
- [55:36]
J. Kyle Mann
It's fine.
- [55:38]
Zach Lowe
I love the lottery so much. I'm going to be in the room, the secret room again. It's not a secret. I'll be in the drawing room again as everyone sits there and watches the stupid machine. And this is a good one because we have a legit awesome number one pick. And then so here I, I, I am not a draft guy. You are. I'm not a college basketball guy. You are. I do, however, talk to NBA all the time who have been gearing up for this draft and I've talked to more of them in the last 72 hours to gear up for this podcast. And I will say the general consensus, if there is one, is this. And I want to see if you agree with this consensus. One is locked in. It's become as deep as the draft is. It's starting to become a one and gigantic gap to everybody else. Two is probably locked in at Dylan Harper. You get a little like, but probably. And then everyone's like 3 to 10 is just kind of like complete eye of the beholder. Depends on the how the lottery falls. Wouldn't be shocked if this guy goes six spots higher than he's mocked. I wouldn't be shocked if that guy goes six spots lower than he's mocked. Do you agree with that or do you think there's a clearer sort of like 3, 4, 5 pecking order just in terms of like talent than that.
- [56:52]
J. Kyle Mann
I think the top four guys on the board, I mean, Cooper obviously has distinguished himself and he is, you know, over way over here. And I've talked about him ad nauseam all over the place. People are probably sick of it by now. But I think you're right and I agree with, I agree with these NBA execs and I'll validate their opinions. I mean, Harper, over the course of the year, you did feel some resistance to people, you know, boxing out any kind of discussion about like, is he sort of unassailably there at that number two spot? Because he does a lot of obvious things that translate to the way we watch the playoffs, which I always still Rossillo's thing about painting a masterpiece, it's like you can, you can watch these guys and get excited about all these little quirky things they do that at the end of the day. And end of the day it comes down to will they be a liability that can be ignored on offense? And can they, Are they going to be picked on on switches? You know, and those are the two things. And if, if you check those two boxes, that's just how we have to look at it. And Harper is a big guard at 6. 6. I made this argument in the mock draft that we're getting ready to put out to plug that he in the half court. He's, he's a guard that doesn't depend on sort of the momentum of transition or just the momentum of game flow to get in the paint if the game slows down. He has incredible feet around the basket in the half court and he can score and continue to do the things that he does. But if you look at these guys, Ace Bailey profiles as a big shot maker, you know, Vijay Edgecombe, these are high level athletes overall. There are some guys that there are to speak to what you're talking about. There are a few guys that have the talent to really, really jump up higher. You know, one here is Trey Johnson. I don't know if you've gotten to look into him at all.
- [58:30]
Zach Lowe
Oh, oh. I did 10 minutes of YouTube film on a bunch of prospects, which means I am the most dangerous kind of person possible. I have very little knowledge and a lot of takes. And Trey Johnson, you know, look, seems pretty thirsty to me. I get the Cam Thomas comp that everyone throws out. But again, I don't know the context. I don't know the context of the teams, right? So I watch him. I watch like a lot of Vijay Edgecomb because I'm like, I Don't know anything about this guy. Let me watch him. And what I watched was like fairly unremarkable to me other than the athleticism stands out. He made a lot of threes in the highlight. Really did not shoot the three that well in college. And then I would talk to NBA people who are pretty high on him and they're, they would be like, well his floor should be like good three and D guy. That's the floor right off the bat. That's with insane athleticism. That's a great floor. And then they're like, if you watch Baylor, like their point guard was hurt, they have no spacing. No, she was like a very unfavorable environment for him to function. And so like that's the stuff that I need to sort of have taught to me. But yeah, Trey Johnson was a lot of, lot of shots, A lot of shots were taken.
- [59:34]
J. Kyle Mann
I, I, he is an interesting, you mentioned the context of college and I think that is the thing that people, you really have to dig into because even juxtaposing it against some of these high level programs, like Liam McNeely is a guy that I don't know if you've gotten to, he's a little further down the list. But he played with Cooper at Montverde and Montverd last year could have beaten some like lower level D1 teams. They were so talented. They have like five guys that could have, that are first rounders essentially. But Trey in particular, I'm always kind of on the lookout for these guys who in the process of their development and their, their growth, once their first post college year is the first time that they're on a team where they're not the best guy. And you know, like Gigi Jackson had some pretty hilarious quotes where he was talking about, I've never stood in the corner. It was like for some of these gu, they've never done it. So Trey, I, I think the, the, the just temptation of the fruit of I should shoot every single time led to some overeating on his part and some anxiousness I think, to shoot the ball. Whereas if you put him into a situation and you just said this is your compartment, this is your lane, you're going to shoot movement threes, you're going to be a gravity piece. We'll worry about the other kind of stuff later. If he gets picked by like the Sixers, say hypothetically, that's something that's just going to work immediately because he hit threes in every which way, every type of action and yeah, but you just kind of have to watch out for guys like that.
- [61:00]
Zach Lowe
I'm glad you mentioned the Sixers because obviously this is the most delicious subplot of the lottery. I don't know who's going to be in the back room for the Sixers because it's been a while. I don't know who they're going to send. I'm hoping it's Daryl Morey, because I just, I want to see the guy with the most at stake, the top guy in the job, a guy who is an incredibly competitive and nervous game watcher in that environment. Because as people may or may not know, if the pick falls in the top six, they keep it. If it falls out of the top six, they give it away. It's like 65, 35 or 60, 40 or something like that. I remember the odds. Like that's, you can talk yourself in and out of 65, 35, 60, 40. Like, oh, there's a 60% chance I'm going to win this game. That sounds great. Like, wait, 40%. There's a, there's a 40% chance I'm going to get struck by lightning if I go outside today. That seems like a lot. That seems like a big percentage. I, I'm. That I am going to be. I'm going to pick my seat in the room based on the best view of whoever the Sixers representative is, and I'm just going to watch that person the entire time.
- [62:07]
J. Kyle Mann
This is the best part of the. You were talking about just the absurdity of all this preparation. Just coming down to. I don't. It reminds me of this feature somebody did one time about this one man who was on track to live to be 150 years old. And they were showing him and he was like 70 years old and he looked. And I was like, what if that guy just steps outside after all that preparation, it gets hit by a car. That's kind of the equivalent of what we're talking about here, where you sit there and watch some of these people. One of my favorite clips of all time, and I know you've seen this one, is, is Jerry west suppressing the, the death inside when he realizes he's not going to get to take LeBron. I retweet this clip every year and put Needle in the Hay by Elliot Smith over it because you just watch these people die on national television. So I agree with you.
- [62:51]
Zach Lowe
And by the way, I don't want my GM to hold it in. I don't care if he's on national tv. I don't care if he's in the secret drawing room. I want to see the full. I want to see someone like flip the freaking deus over when the, when it doesn't go their way. I want to see F bombs. I want to see like accidental unbleeped F bombs. Okay, you're, you're the latest mock draft I haven't seen. But you go in the one that's up now. Flag Harper Edgecomb 3. Ace Bailey for Trey Johnson 5. Derek Queen, who I saw play in the tournament. So I actually saw him play a real basketball game. And very predictably it was like, oh, this guy's so fun. I like this guy. I don't know how it's going to translate to the NBA, but he's very fun. I had not seen at all. No clue. He's absolutely gigantic. Okay, let's go to Ace bailey. I watched 20 minutes of film on Ace Bailey. That's really all I'm going to do. The playoffs are going on. I might do more if the playoffs slowed down and I got instantly. Why he's this like mystery box of a player. And I will tell you this. I don't know if you've heard this. Ace Bailey's measurement at the combine I think is going to be one of the most anticipated measurements in recent prospect history. Because is he 610 or is he 68 or is he 6 7? There are NBA people who are like I'm not actually sure he's 610 and if he's not 6 10, if he's 6 8, he's like that matters a lot to me.
- [64:20]
J. Kyle Mann
I have some intel from some. He's been measured before. This is one of my favorite parts of the draft world is the just the people trading, oh, where'd this measurement come from? Is this credible? Blah, blah, blah. I've heard he's six, eight and a quarter. So we'll put a pin in that and we'll see if that's true.
- [64:36]
Zach Lowe
I mean if he comes in at 67 or 6 8, I don't know what that does to the draft order, but there are definitely some team the, the, the name Cam Reddish was throwing at me. If he comes in at 67 or 6 8, which I watch him and I'm like this dude's making spinning one legged like up and unders. Like yeah, I didn't get that.
- [64:53]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah, he's, he's a way, he's, he's an, he's one of those interesting, more shot maker than shooter types. It's it's an odd thing where he, he seems to like to. Rhythm is just an interesting thing with shooting for me. It's like some guys just aren't comfortable without the dribble, without moving. When they don't have that rhythm, it just seems like their whole flow into their shot is different or their comfort level is. But yeah, I mean he's, he also, I've heard, has a 611 and a half wingspan. He's. I don't worry so much about that. I think he's, he's athletic. Like his one step jump is pretty good. He's. He's pretty explosive. The main thing is that he just can't leverage it right now because he can't dribble. I mean any skinny. So those are, those are kind of the outlier questions, outlying questions.
- [65:37]
Zach Lowe
Okay, give me the elevator pitch on Jeremiah Fierce.
- [65:45]
J. Kyle Mann
That's a good one. This is one of the more polarizing subjects because you'll talk to scouts who'll be like, I don't want to watch him anymore. That's one of those. They'll be like, wow, I feel like I'm being waterboarded. But then you'll know. I mean, but you can kind of see both sides of it. The people who really value, you know, on ball juice is a, is a jargony thing people say. I mean he's, he has a really connected connective and fast vocabulary with the ball in his hands. Like he, he can, he can string together these kind of improvised. And you'll, you'll watch younger guards sometimes who clearly have what I call trainer brain where they get into a sequence and they've memorized this pattern and they're. And once that pattern gets disrupted, once they're off book, they're like an actor who can't go off script. They're like, I don't, I can't. They can't improvise. If you watch Fears, he's really good with the ball in his hands and he just, he just prints paint touches. I mean like he threw some passes.
- [66:38]
Zach Lowe
Where I was like, ooh, that's an NBA pass right there.
- [66:42]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah. The main thing is just can he sort of. I, I compared it to. He needs that bonding agent of being able to shoot the ball to kind of tie it all together because he can get in the pain at will. I think he'll be a creative enough finisher. It's just you got to be able to shoot the ball or else you end up becoming one of these guys that you can't Become a primary if you're not a threat at the point of attack with the ball.
- [67:05]
Zach Lowe
There is somebody mocked in the top 10 of your latest of the one that's available now online, not the newest one. There's one guy in your top 10 who again, this is based on me doing the stupid thing, which is taking very little information and taking too much out of it. I fully realize that and I'm almost.
- [67:26]
J. Kyle Mann
I like these though. I like these because you can get too close to the canvas and I'd be like, I'm like staring at one tile and you'd be like, I see the, the picture. You're too close. I like hearing this stuff.
- [67:36]
Zach Lowe
Well, but, but I, I should like, a lot of this is tongue in cheek. Like, I would never make actual decisions or like real predictions based on the limited information that I have consumed. But it is interesting. There's one guy in your top 10 who's just like, way different than I assumed he would be. And I like him way better than I thought I would because of the ways in which he is way different than I incorrectly and stupidly assumed him to be. Can you guess who it is?
- [68:02]
J. Kyle Mann
Is it Yakachonis? Is it Casperus? Yakachonas?
- [68:05]
Zach Lowe
No, he's exactly what I assumed he would be. A clever tall Pat. Yes.
- [68:09]
Fred Katz
Con.
- [68:10]
Zach Lowe
Canipple. Wow. Just didn't really expect the kind of. He's got a little physicality and nastiness to his game on offense.
- [68:19]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah, I can't, I couldn't think of a comp for him, honestly, because I was going through and I was like, I can't remember a movement shooter like this who is built like him. I. Can you think of any? I, I was, I was just pouring through. Basketball reference.
- [68:32]
Zach Lowe
Well, look, I mean. And I. So I asked all a bunch of my scout friends, like, so I guess the book, the, the, the hit on him is just lateral speed defensively and is he going to be able to hold up and like, yeah, that's it. And, But I'm like, I mean, he's got, and he's got a level of nasty and physicality and creativity on offense that I frankly did not expect. And I was like, okay, that's interesting. I even had a guy tell me if he went top five, I wouldn't be shocked. And I was like, okay, I might be a little shocked at that, but maybe not. I don't know. Like, there are some people who really like him and some people who are really skeptical.
- [69:04]
J. Kyle Mann
Speaking against struck by lighting, I'm going to Say something. When I watch him, I watched him in eybl, that's. I usually try to kind of know who these guys are before, to get an idea of how to contextualize what they do in college. I'm not going to act like I'm a high school expert. I'm not. But I saw him a lot and when he would play in the paint, he has that ability to sort of dole out punishment with that big frame and play at a pace off of two feet. I'm not saying they're the same player. I've invoked this guy before, but he has some Devin Bookery stuff. When he gets to the, to the elbow where he can hit somebody and then he has a gorgeous mid range shot, he can create it for himself. I don't know that he's going to be like getting downhill, but he's a pretty good connective passer. I think he's going to be somebody. It's just what you said. If he can, if he can hold up defensively, he adds a lot of stuff. I was like Gordon Hayward. I'm. I just, I wasn't sure quite who to compare him to. He's pretty unique.
- [69:56]
Zach Lowe
Like you said, you do run into the old Daryl Morey rule where you know was like, you can't. You, you have to do cross racial comparisons. You can't compare white players to white players. You run into some of. When you talk to scouts about Knipple, you get that like, like very clearly he's comp to all the people you think he's going to be comp to. This is an unfair question because I'm springing this on you. Who needs to win the lottery most urgently, the Jazz or the Wizards? Not that they're the only two who can win it. Anyone can win it. I'm just saying up to two teams in that sort of bottom four who there's no deserve, people are like, I deserve this, this team. Deserve that. Deserves got nothing to do with it. As they said in the Wire, Utah or Washington, who has a more urgent need for the basketball gods to smile upon them.
- [70:44]
J. Kyle Mann
I feel like, I feel like the Jazz need to win this. I brought this up because since Harper, if they do end up with the second pick, I, if I were them, I would consider maybe moving it because of the dissonance that they're going to have among, not because they won't be able to figure it out. Because I do think that Dylan Harper is going to be a better player than Isaiah Collier and, and Colin Sexton. And, and Keonte George, I just think that, that having him as the implied and he might be able to play them all together. Will, Will Hardy is a brilliant guy. He could figure it out. I just think it would create some questions and in this era where questions are just more difficult to answer than ever in terms of moving people and, and I think that Flag would just. They've been bad for a while now in this post Mitchell Gobert era and I think that Flag would just kind of set them off moving. I think the Wizards will be okay if they end up with Dylan Harper. He fits with the guys that they have and it'll be great. So I think it's the Jazz.
- [71:38]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, the Jazz are really interesting because, you know, they've done this thing the last couple of years where they were overperforming expectations and then pulled the rug out from their own team halfway through the season and as a result never ended up where they are right now in the lottery. And you look at, they have a bunch of young players and you look at them, Cody Williams, I mean that did not go great one year. We'll see. Keonte George, you know, I thought about him watching fears just because, not that they're that similar, but that George will do stuff on an NBA floor where you're like, that's an NBA pass right there. Like, I was a left handed laser beam pass into the lane, but he's just been so bad defensively and hasn't been able to shoot it well enough that you're like, what is this amounting to? And what it amounted to this year was he got, he got demoted to the second unit halfway through the season or whatever. Filipowski's all right. I, I had him second team all rookie. Not sure what he's going to become. Kessler's pretty good. Like, like I don't know what he's going to be. He's like pretty good. Hendricks I had really was really intrigued by before the injury. My point is like, and Collier, Collier was good. Collier trended the right way. The start was so bad that it was alarming, but he trended the right way. My point is like, like just not sure what all this really amounts to. All these bites at like the 8th, 10th, 7th pick in the draft and it might amount to like not all that much so far. I don't know.
- [73:02]
J. Kyle Mann
You need a map is what I always say. These, these teams that are trying to get the, to crawl out of the nothingness to somethingness, they just need a map and a player and a Player like Cooper Flag, like when the. When the Magic got Paolo, it was like, we have a map to build our team. When the Pistons got cad, it was like, we have a clear plan. We need these pieces. And the great thing about Cooper is he checks that box in terms of. Yes, he gives you an idea of who you can build around, but he's so versatile that you can go a number of different directions because he doesn't have any kind of implied, I have to play this way in his game, which I think is what makes him such a special prospect. He could go a number of directions and for the Jazz, they need. There's nothing on here that is a map to me forward. It's like any. You could keep any of this or get rid of any of this. I don't know which direction they're going. It's fine. But it's just kind of middling. And I think Cooper would be. He would be just an explosion in the right direction.
- [73:57]
Zach Lowe
I'll tell you though, I'm just. I'm just saying spurs are going to have two lottery picks in like a 7% chance or something at the number one pick. I'm just like. I think on that one, spurs win the lottery. I think I'm stepping in as commissioner and being like, do it again. Draw it again. We can't. It's just. That's not fair. Do it again. I know it's supposed to be luck and the lottery is a lottery. And like, you know, teams of the Magic won it two years in a row and the Cavs have won it a million times. Just do it. Do it again. It's Weapon, Yama and Flag. That's not fair.
- [74:32]
J. Kyle Mann
Well, well, wait a minute though. I mean, is. Does your. I want to see this part of your brain kind of haven't play any part in this. Because I'm curious for you, watching the NBA as intensely as you do, is there any team, regardless of karma or whatever that in the Zach Low. I just want to see this rankings where. Who would you like, who would in the basketball sense you would like to see Cooper Flag play with. That's in the lottery. This is your show. I did this to you.
- [74:57]
Zach Lowe
That's good. That's good. I mean, there are some obvious ones, right? It's almost like boring to send him to the bad teams because he's just going to like. Like, you know, they're going to lose, but he's going to do. I mean, the great thing about Cooper Flag is and the thing that makes him so rare as A prospect, as you have said, is like the on ball stuff is almost less advanced than like everything else about his game, including playing hard as fuck all the time, and which is a very valuable thing. So I don't know what he looks like on a bad, bad team, but like, you know, I mean, the Sixers would be interesting. The Pelicans, just because I have no idea what they're doing or who's going to play for them, are interesting. Spurs, you, you know, you, you outlined it. You put it with like scoot and shade and sharp in Portland. I don't know what that looks like.
- [75:42]
J. Kyle Mann
Can we talk about this just for a second? I saw the Blazers up close in person. Just seeing them at eye level, I don't think people are tracking how defensively they are. Just a couple tweaks I feel like away from being a mega pain in the ass as a defensive team. And if they ended up getting flag, I don't know, I just, I don't know that that's being talked about as much, you know, as it probably deserves because the Rockets came along really quickly and it wouldn't shock me if the Blazers get the right piece. If they sort of accelerate their time line in a way where people are like, oh, yeah, and. Cause they're huge, dude. In person.
- [76:19]
Zach Lowe
Well, and I thought, you know, it's easy to sort of wave away a late season surge is like, oh, that's like February, March, basketball, you know, April, people start tanking, whatever. And they, they did not make the sort of play in chase that was briefly flickering as a hope for them. But I thought their surge was pretty real. Like, I didn't, I didn't think this was like a fake. The team as a whole kind of made a little bit of a leap. And so, yeah, I'd be curious. Okay. There is one guy who in all my phone conversations with front office, not all of them, some of them, the conversations like shrunk to a whisper, like they were afraid. Someone maybe, maybe Zach's on an Amtrak train. He's someone some. And there's an NBA scout on the Amtrak train who's going to overhear this conversation. But Zach, Zach, there's a guy. I'm just going to get. I'm just going to say a name, just keep an eye on him. And I heard it from a bunch of people, say a name. And they're all going to be mad that I say the name because they all think they're the only ones on it. They're not. Because he's mocked in the first round of your mock draft. Cedric Coward is. If all of these scouts are on him like this, you have it mocked at 29th. I think he's going to get picked higher than that just based on my conversations.
- [77:30]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah, we talked about this on the draft show last week. It's come up. Yeah, it's, it's sort of the, the Leonard Malton secrets out kind of thing. That's. Wow, where did that reference even come from in my brain? Yeah, yeah, it's. You talk to NBA people and you're right. It's. They're all kind of. They get serious and they get quiet. Carter Bryant is similar in that way and that people are like don't, don't, don't go talking about that one. Coward is, he's interesting because he, if you just watch him with like in like an, just an idiot optics basketball like this resembles. He has big broad shoulders. He has long arms. He has a body that's pretty similar to Shay Gilgis Alexander. Just to put it. Quite frankly. It wouldn't shock. He's 6, 6. It wouldn't shock me if he has a 71 or a 72 wingspan. He has huge hands, he has big wide shoulders. He's not a super explosive athlete, but he's one of those long kind of methodical guys who I'm not. This is. I, I don't want to get struck by lightning again, but he has that Kawaii kind of thing where he's so big and long and strong that he imprisons you with his footwork rather than like exploding by you. The big thing is he just can't dribble right now. So it's, it's not a disaster. But he can really hit threes. He's competitive as hell, makes out of area defensive plays. Yeah, I mean it wouldn't shock me if he, and he's young. He, he's a young senior. He's only 21 years old. So he's, he's going to have a lot of room to get better.
- [78:50]
Zach Lowe
All right, you have, I'm just, just. I've heard his name a lot. I, to the point where I watched some clips on him. You have queen at six and again you may change this now when the next one comes up but you have Queen and at 6 and you have a guy that enough people flagged for me that I watched a little bit of him. Colin Murray Boyles at 20. Pick somebody, one or two guys in that range six to 20 and, and like that I should dive in. I'd Be like, you're gonna like that guy or that guy. Super polarizing or I really like that guy more than most people. Just give me a couple names to flag.
- [79:30]
J. Kyle Mann
Just from listening to your basketball preferences over the years, I'm not gonna act like I'm an expert on this. I. You seem that pretty familiar with Yaka Chonis. I'm lower on Rasheer Fleming than our mock is, but I kind of feel like he's gonna get picked higher.
- [79:46]
Zach Lowe
So I haven't, I haven't dove in on him yet. Tell me about him.
- [79:49]
J. Kyle Mann
Pretty simple proposition. I mean he's. He's a big long forward who's pretty strong. He's probably going to be able to guard two through four and he can hit open threes. That's it. I mean he's not going to do a whole lot much more than that, in my opinion. But that's. That's fine, you know, that's. That's worth having on your team. I think that you're going to find. I said this to my buddy Ben Taylor too. Danny Wolfe is just an interesting specimen as a basketball player because He's. He's probably 6 11, but he ran an incredible amount of pick and roll at Michigan. He can really pass the ball. He's one of those guys. I said that he shows little flourishes of. Of hedo ness in his game where he. He plays facing the basket and he's a legit, you know, four or five. He's interesting. And then another one just looking in the range. You said if I had to pick. I think Jaegor demons really fascinating, but we'll see. I think Nick Clifford is. Is probably. I think the Nick Clifford, Cedric Coward conversation is one that probably needs to be had. But I think Clifford's probably have it.
- [80:50]
Adam Mares
I don't know.
- [80:50]
J. Kyle Mann
I don't know that conversation because he's older.
- [80:53]
Zach Lowe
Have the conversation.
- [80:54]
J. Kyle Mann
He's. Well, I just think Coward's a little bit younger. He didn't get to develop at the high. In the high major, you know, scene the way that Clifford has and people are giving him the benefit of that and. But I, I think Clifford is somebody who is just going to be a good team defender. He can hit threes. I don't, I don't. It might be a little boring, but it's going to be. He's going to hold the line, I think and be able to plug into a team because we've seen like the Sixers try to do that with older or not. The Sixers. The Nuggets do that with older players with you know, Jalen Pickett and these guys and you can kind of see it's like, it's nice in theory. I don't think it's in theory really with Clifford I think he's going to be able to play. But Wolf, I think you should check out.
- [81:32]
Zach Lowe
All right. Well, it's funny, you know, watching you, you mentioned the, the Fleming kid and I was watching Murray Boyles yesterday. These, these like 6, 8 to 6, 10 big guys who are skilled and can switch but their shooting is eh. To not good and they're too small to play center and protect the rim on defense. Like they're, it's very easy to talk yourself into them because they do they creative and I guess Queen would be like a high level version of this. Very creative clever passers. They're switching on defense and the inevitable sort of like Draymond Green archetype comes up for those players. But like more often than not they, it's, it unfolds like like the name that came to my head was Jonathan Mobo who's like fine. Like Jonathan Mobo is fine. And like on the right night you see him do stuff and it's like, wow, that guy's like really exciting. Like he can guard fives and fours and threes and he like made a three and then you just like five years later it's. He's been traded three times and doesn't. And doesn't play because the size and the shooting are just not there. It's just, it's a very tricky piece to draft. Particularly high on the board.
- [82:46]
J. Kyle Mann
Yeah, it's sort of the. I mean Jared Vanderbilt is another one like that who people. Everybody loves him, but they're just these problems that you can't escape eventually. You know, I used to love Jordan Bell for similar reasons. Murray Boyles. Murray Boyles. I, I thought you might like him. He. Yeah, he's, he's a little more offensively challenged I think. But he's, he's going to be like an assignment guy. I said that. He's more of a dissuader than a disruptor. Like he doesn't make those like home run defensive plays where he flies in and does something incredible. Athletically. He's just, he's a wall on defense. He walls guys up. He's just like, no, you're going up the lane, you're not going towards the basketball. He just mercilessly and cruelly just takes the ball away from people. He's got huge hands. He'll just Palm the ball and take it. He's just sort of, I think that he's going to be an analytics darling. Darling. I think people who really want it's going to be subtle and quiet. But yeah, and I would differentiate Queen a little bit there. Queen has great hands. Queen has great hands. But he's, he's more of a sort of a lazy lion type of guy. He doesn't really, he's, he's not high motored but then he'll make a really, really smart play and you'll be like, are you just slower paced or are you just choosing to be slower? What's going on with you? That's been the war with me, with him is I might just kind of have to accept that he's one of these slow moving, bring you into my world offensive players. He just drives me a little nuts sometimes. But he's very clever passer.
- [84:14]
Zach Lowe
Well, this is great. We might have to reconvene after the lottery is over and we see who's picking where and I'm going to watch more film on these guys and get more uninformed opinions and hot takes. When's the next mock draft coming out?
- [84:29]
J. Kyle Mann
Early next week actually. So we're going to be, it's going to respond to the, to the lottery.
- [84:33]
Zach Lowe
So yeah, it's such a pleasure to have you on and finally e meet you and whatever term people use for that these days. I'm going to lean on you for draft stuff and Danny as well. Ringer. Mock draft is just, it looks beautiful, it reads beautiful. It should be your number one go to resource for all things draft. Jay Kyle, man, thanks for joining us.
- [84:54]
J. Kyle Mann
Thanks for having me.
- [84:57]
Zach Lowe
All right, let's wrap up with the one series we haven't talked about yet, which went from incredibly dramatic game one to whoa, game two. That was boring and a blowout. A brilliant basketball mind. From Dnvr Sports from the All NBA's podcast in the all City Network. Adam Morris. How are you, sir?
- [85:16]
Adam Mares
I'm doing fine today. I was doing a little bit better before last night's blowout.
- [85:22]
Zach Lowe
Yes. So let's talk Nuggets Thunder. Not really that much to say about game two, which had all the makings of classic. Home team loses, game one comes out roaring in game two, road team is like, ah, we got the split and oh my God, they're going to play this hard and the refs are going to let all this go and they're going to take the ball from us all time. All right, what's. What time's the flight back to Denver. But let I'll just, we'll ask you generally did anything as you look ahead to game three, did anything that happened in game two or even game one or changes from game one to game two strike you as okay? I'm going to be watching for that. Or that's interesting. The Thunder did that and it worked. What's the Nuggets counter, anything like that?
- [86:02]
Adam Mares
Well, I think the physicality part is meaningful because I think Oklahoma City will bring that physicality to every game. They have to based on their front court size deficit. But the biggest strategic adjustment, at least on Denver's end of the floor, which I think in the early go Denver was not scoring and that's what opened up the game. And I and Oklahoma City, you know, you get him in the half court, I think Denver's going to be okay. You get them. They got a lot of points in transition last night. What I, what I saw was that they were leaving Christian Brown open, Russell Westbrook, Aaron Gordon, and I think they were because they are so undersized in the front court because it takes so much and because they're vulnerable on the defensive glass. They said, listen, that's the thing. We're not going to lose. We're going to, we're going to put everybody in there and stack it and Christian Brown's going to get three open threes in the first quarter and we'll live with it. And last night he went over three.
- [86:51]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, the role players missed their shots before the game got out of hand and then some people got hot late in the game. I think you make a great point because in general, I thought Oklahoma City went into game one thinking about their half court offense and specifically thinking, okay, we're going to put Shet on Jokic because Chet has had one good defensive game on Yokage last season when he got a bunch of blocks. We like that sort of matchup. And then maybe we'll get Jokic stuck on Chet on the other end and we can get into his pick and pop game and force Denver into rotation play. Cheddar center quite a bit as the only big man on the floor. And in game two, they flipped the matchups in a way that I frankly thought they would to open the series, which is Hartenstein on Jokic, Chet as the Gobert rover on Aaron Gordon, sometimes Christian Brown. I just think that makes a lot more sense. Not only that, they paired other Jalen Williams with Chet a lot and had, I mean talk about a guy who is physical with yogic Big jail Williams is beating the hell out of him. And if the refs are going to let go, do it, it like both teams should do it. And. And they sort of just were like, you know what, we're not going to hunt this like Chet Jokic thing on offense. We're going to trade that for size and rebounding. And to your point that the similar open threes thing was, was allowing those open threes was the same trade off. They just decided we're going to get bigger, we're going to get tougher. And that meant a change in minutes patterns and a change in when. Like even putting Chet back into the rotation when Shea rests, which was the way they started the season, was anytime Shea's on the bench, good, better. Jalen Williams and Chet are going to be on the floor. Then they gradually sort of shifted Chet out of that a lot and put Hartenstein back on the floor, which I didn't really get why they were doing that. But in this series, doing that aligns the shed at center minutes to when Jokic is on the bench. I think they just sort of made a general trade off that made sense for them and used matchups that made more sense for them. And I, I would assume, I mean, I assume they were going to play that way to start the series. I assume they will come out and play that way again in game three.
- [88:51]
Adam Mares
I think so too. And I kind of like your point about them doing this in the regular season, kind of mixing it up. Because one of my beliefs about success in the playoffs is you're going to need different rotations and different matchups and different things for different series. And it was almost like preparation. Okay, what happens if we get into this series? They have a big front court we're going to have to match up. So that, that's something I've just seen across the entire NBA is the teams that have sort of positioned themselves to play a couple different styles and being prepared for it. So I agree with you. The thing about leaving shooters open, you know, we saw this in Denver Clippers in the first series. Chris Dunn was below the threshold where Denver would live with his hot quarters. Makes three, four in a row. They'll live with it. Denver tried that in game one with Caruso and with Dort. Those guys, I think are above the threshold, especially Lou Dortmund. They're above the threshold of how much you can just leave a guy open. I think Oklahoma City realizes they can make that bet. Bet with Denver shooters and they might lose one of these next two games in Denver Denver gets hot, but I think they'll feel comfortable knowing we'll lose every time on the offensive glass if we try to play this straight up. And we'll lose every battle in the paint in the half court if we try to play this straight up. So that trade off is, is worth it. And you'll get games like last night where every time you get stops on Denver, you have a huge advantage in transition going the other way.
- [90:07]
Zach Lowe
Well, and that's, I mean, baked into it is, you know, they were guarding and have been guarding Michael Porter Jr. With Jalen Williams perimeter. Jalen Williams. I really don't like doing this Jalen Williams thing. It's very annoying. And so there's a cross match on the other end when they get a stop. And I, I still don't think they're hunting Porter Jr. Enough. Although I liked very early in the game they went to a Shay Chet pick and roll to poke at Michael Porter Jr. And Chet rolled to the rim, which is, is, I think smart even if Hartenstein's on the floor. And I think they hit him on the short roll and then he lobbed to Hartenstein for a dunk. But yeah, I mean, that's a good way to get Jalen Williams going, who had a bad first game and a much better game last night. Another thing chet on the second or non Shea unit did is like DeAndre Jordan can't play against that lineup. I mean, that was rendered very, very clear. They put him on Kason, Wallace, Kayson Wallace just feasted on open threes and that's what you just can't. If Wallace and Wiggins and Joe are going to come off the bench and make shot, you have no chance, like just no chance to beat this team. But yeah, I thought, I thought, I mean, look, frankly, like I thought Oklahoma City overthought game one. I thought they overthought the matchups by getting too cute and flipping the big man matchups the way they did. And they definitely overthought the fouling up three on crunch time. I have not had a podcast. I went on Bill's podcast and talked about it. I could not understand what they were doing. I'm a foul up 3 guy. My line of demarcation is like 8 seconds. Anything more than that. And then they thought they put in their rebounders. Like they think Jokic is going to miss the free throw on purpose. Like he's not going to miss it, he's going to make it. Then they have a chance to continue play with Jokic on The bench like Denver takes joke. It's out down one with what, 13 seconds left or something, right? And because they have to foul and Yokich has five fouls and they don't even foul, Shade just gets a dunk. The game's going on. Denver has no timeouts. They can't bring Jokic back in the game. And rather than make Denver figure out how to get a three or foul them with four seconds left and no Jokic, they foul and let Jokic. I just could not believe it. And they, they. Mark Dagnal mismanaged that game. It was a bad game. I think they should be up 2 0. And if they lose this series, they're going to look back at Game 1 and be like, man, and Chet misses, the free throws and the dunked and everything. That was a credit to Nuggets. They were awesome. Aaron Gordon, you mentioned helping off Aaron Gordon. He's like a knockdown shooter now. It's not just like he's always good on open shots. He's. He is going to knock down open threes, period.
- [92:43]
Adam Mares
Like, unbelievable development story, especially in transition. He's been really good. I mean, I think one of the things you like about Aaron Gordon in Denver is that he seems to know where his touches are going to come in the rhythm of the offense and he really hones in on those. So he takes the ones that are good for him. Transition is part of that. You know, getting to the corners has been part of that. But yeah, I mean, there's no question they mismanaged that one. What? And I like the way you phrased it, that maybe they overthought this because Oklahoma City, especially coming after game one. But I thought this about them all year. They're very strategically mind minded. They think a lot about how can we tilt things in our favor. And I think that's important. You want to build that, bake that into the DNA of your team. But oftentimes that that's only half the battle. The other part of it is just sort of the, the will and the. In the physicality and the, in the deliberateness to which you approach different things. And I thought game one became a little bit of a chess match, so to speak, and game two was just a street fight. They came out and said, okay, we have to do these things. We're going to overwhelm them athletically and that's their real advantage. I mean, Denver has a great tactician on the floor at all times. And Nikola Jokic, you're not going to win that chess Match, you know, it's not, that's not necessarily the angle you have to go. But they are the more talented and certainly the more athletic team. And the athleticism, I think, is one of the things that has popped in both games, but it really popped in game two.
- [93:59]
Zach Lowe
Yeah. Just how do you feel about the series? Denver got to split. It's 1 1. They're going home. They've had a nice, very good playoff series win over the Clippers, won the opener on the road. They have home court. I zoom out. You know, I put my notes down. I just like, how do I feel? And every series has a certain feel to it. This one I'm like, I'm not sure who. I guess I should feel better about Denver because they got the split. I picked Oklahoma City in six. I don't know if you made a pick. I can't remember, but I don't really know how to feel about it after two games. How do you feel about it? Like, what's your gut saying?
- [94:33]
Adam Mares
I mean, I think Oklahoma City is a lot better than Denver. And Denver, to me, this year reminds me more of the 2023 Miami Heat than anybody else in that I think they can beat you with execution, they can beat you with toughness, but there are teams that are more talented than them, and there are teams. And you look at, we talked about DeAndre Jordan last night. Denver doesn't have any levers to pull. They have five, six guys, and one of them has one shoulder at the moment, you know, Michael Porter can't really lift his left hand above his head, by the way.
- [95:02]
Zach Lowe
It's a big reason why I picked the Thunder. I think the Thunder are better. But like every other day, I, I, I just worry about how, how long can you go just playing these guys, this many minutes when one of them is already injured.
- [95:14]
Adam Mares
Yeah. And it's not even the depth of it, which I think would be its own issue. You know, Peyton Watson maybe gives him minutes. I think. I actually think he's been good lately. So you can say six and a half guys, so. But the problem is more the versatility. In the playoffs, you have to solve problems. You have to go to different lineups. And you saw last night, I mean, DeAndre Jordan, it's tough to play him in any series because he can only really play that pick and roll drop coverage. He can't really do anything else. But against a team as versatile and as smart as Oklahoma City, you saw last night, he guards the pick and roll. They get a wide open three, they flip it they put him on, I think Case and Wallace saying, okay, well, we're. We'll get ahead of the pick and roll. They just use Case and Wallace as the screener and ran pick. Like they know how to attack every type of coverage. When you have a liability like that, Denver's going to have to play somebody to give Jokic some kind of breath. And I just don't know that Denver has any levers to pull there. So Denver is at this disadvantage, I think, from a talent and adept standpoint. And then on top of that, you see last night they make some adjustments and. And met them physically. And this is why I think you asked me how I feel in the series. I buy Denver's toughness. I buy Jokic. I buy their connection, the way they've been playing connected over the last eight. You know, basically this playoff run is very impressive, and that's a hallmark of what makes them great. But you're still going to have to get open, make open shots from guys that I don't really trust to make them at a right volume. You're going to have to find guys to defend in positions. I don't trust them to defend at volume, and that's why I was not very confident coming into the series.
- [96:41]
Zach Lowe
Well, look, I mean, obviously Jokic can score one on one against Holmgren. You can just put him in the basket. Holmgren will get a block with his length every once in a while. He can score one on one to Hartenstein. He can score one on one on everybody. Hartenstein and Jalen Williams are at least strong. And the Thunder are going to present the biggest challenge probably Jokic has ever faced in terms of mind games. Space clogging, arms everywhere, guys digging down, then leaving. And you've seen him have a couple of flustered turnover, flustered turnovers in the first couple of games. He's the best player in the world. If you show him the same look over and over again, he's going to figure it out immediately. If you show him the same look three times, he's going to have it figured out. They can show him lots of different looks with lots of different people. And that's where Denver's lack of shooting is just a killer because, you know, you take one of Murray or Porter off the floor and it's just you reach a level of disaster like. And Jokic has the ball. So he's one of your shooters. He's got the ball. There's just not enough space for all the guys cutting into each other. But look, Denver has proven its metal and its toughness and Christian Brown is going to make four threes in a game and Aaron Gordon's a knockdown shooter and Russell Westbrook is shooting well. Like I don't know what's really happening, but he's shooting well. He's always shot corner threes pretty well. But you, you, and by the way, you mentioned Case and Wallace, one thing I will, I will say that's if there's a battleground that we haven't seen much of yet and who knows if we'll see much of it based on how Oklahoma City adjusted, this is the best guard guard screening role team in the NBA.
- [98:10]
Adam Mares
Yep.
- [98:10]
Zach Lowe
It's what elevated their offense last year. And it's what's so interesting in those Chet is the only big man minutes versus Jokic minutes is the Nuggets have decided we're not even going to put Jokic on Chet. We're going to put him on Dort or Caruso or Wallace or someone who we just don't deem a threat. And that battle barely got off the ground in Game 1. And the Nuggets were able to sort or when he was on Chet, when he was stuck on Chet, he would drop back, someone else would rotate up to Chet on the pop and Jokic would figure out someone else to go guard down in the corner. And Denver executed that well. Another thing you could do is if he's on Caruso or Dort, just have those guys set the screen and see what happens. That's a battle that no matter what Oklahoma City does rotation wise, whether it's because of foul trouble or need or the way the game is flowing, we're going to see that over a more extended period. I think at some point in these Denver games and I'm very curious to see how it's handled by the Nuggets and who kind of comes out ahead there.
- [99:09]
Adam Mares
The thing about Denver, if you get into a half court battle, I think Denver feels good about these things because they're so efficient in the half court. You know when you can slow that game down like that. But what you're talking about here with these guard to guard screens or putting Jokic on door, getting door to open shot is a good option, but it's an uncomfortable one when you're going up against Denver in the half court. Cause you know Denver's going to get great looks every single time and I think that's a gamble. Denver's willing to play with a team is good.
- [99:34]
Zach Lowe
You have, you have to play with that gamble against Oklahoma City, this is like your only path.
- [99:38]
Adam Mares
And you saw this against the Clippers too, by the way, where Denver said but how comfortable are you giving the ball to Dunn four possessions in a row wide open because he might make them. And even statistically speaking, a wide open Chris Dunn corner three is not that bad in the half court, but teams don't want to do that. Oklahoma City can beat you a lot of ways, but they don't necessarily want to just keep feeding Caruso open threes. They'll do it. They're tough team, but that's not their comfort zone. And I think Denver can make that gamble because of the pressure they put on you. But last night became a transition game, especially early on. And to your point, I think Denver looked up and said we're down 20 in the first quarter. How much energy do we want to expend trying to come back in this one?
- [100:15]
Zach Lowe
I honestly was surprised that they didn't pull the plug sooner in that game. To your point about Dort and Caruso, one thing I will credit those guys on is they will keep taking the shot like Dort will. Dort will miss five in a row and keep shooting, whereas Dunn, if he misses two in a row is probably going to bag it and then your whole offense kind of stalls out real quickly. Before we get big picture, what do you think of Denver's zone? Not overall in the playoffs and so far in this series.
- [100:42]
Adam Mares
Well, so far in this series is more interesting to me because that was another one of the takeaways. Like how much can you read into last night's game. But one of the things was Oklahoma City was very prepared for that zone. It's kind of a. It was lazy last night, but they would overload the side that Jokic was on. You know, rather it's not even a balance. I think Denver can make adjustments to this, but it wasn't even a balanced attack. It was just we're going to send three guys over to the side and Jokic is not going to run out on the perimeter for it. So it was. I don't know what the numbers said last night, but I would guess it was the Thunder were incredibly efficient in the zone possessions that Denver had. I mean it had no chance. And I thought the Oklahoma City spent clearly spent the last 48 hours kind of preparing for that exact defense.
- [101:22]
Zach Lowe
Well, you got, you also got the a couple of offensive rebounds. Hartenstein had a put back. I can't. I think one of their guards snuck in for a put back and you. I'm Looking up the numbers right now and corner threes. Wiggins got a couple wide open corner threes. You give up above the break threes, that's fine. You start giving up wide open corner threes and it doesn't go well.
- [101:48]
Adam Mares
And overloading Yokich's side. Either he's not going to run out or you're taking your best defensive rebounder out of position now. And I think that's the gamble they're willing to make is even best case scenario we're going to miss a shot and we have a good chance here at the second chance point.
- [102:02]
Zach Lowe
Thunder scored 1.23 points per possession against Denver Zone last night, which is pretty good. It's not amazing, but it's good enough. Big bigger picture. We have now lived in this reality for a few weeks of the post Malone, no pun intended post Malone, post booth world. The sudden but not quite that sudden if you've been in connection with the team firings, but still surprising because of the timing you were mentioning to me offline. Like it it really sort of is a line of demarcation in their season. Like this is. This is a strange season. How much has changed and like what has that been like up close?
- [102:44]
Adam Mares
I think it's a complete reset culturally, emotionally, psychologically. The team is different since the the 80th game of the season. You almost have to throw out the first 79. I mean I always tell this story that I knew something was off with this team. You know, obviously the way it ended last year. But at the very first day at media day you could tell like okay, things are not good here. And you know, nobody showed up to pre camp workouts. Nobody was in the gym this summer there it was like every. Nobody wanted to be in Denver until the last possible second. And you saw and felt that as you watched this team the entire year was this is a team that get becomes connected through the course of the season. They work because they. They get five guys kind of working in sync and you just never had that. You had friction, you had tension, you had unhappiness and you had bad play when you knew that that I knew that that move was coming. I did not know it was coming with three games left. That was a very bold move by Josh Kroenke and to according to him that firing was we don't want to waste the season. This team is better than what we look. Let's just see if this gives some juice. And it did. I think Adelman is very different than Malone. Malone is in that by the way.
- [103:53]
Zach Lowe
People were skeptical, that is that really. They really believe in the team and that's why they're doing this. They. It was true. That was legit. There was a. There was a sense of this team is actually still a great team in there somewhere, and we can't get it out unless we make these changes.
- [104:06]
Adam Mares
And I do think it was layered. I think that was the facing but really true reason. But I'm sure there were other reasons as well. What happens if you get a nice little conference finals run? Somebody gets injured, you make a. Now it's harder to make a firing in the off season. So I think it was a layered decision. But I do believe that they looked at this and said, we can't waste a year of Yokich's prime. And even though things aren't looking like they're going to break our way, why not give ourselves a chance? And it worked because this team, I think David Adelman is a strategist. He's a very smart coach. And this is a veteran team. I don't know that they need a ton of emotional coaching and inspiration. I think they need a blueprint. And also there's been this vacancy. I think Michael Malone takes up a lot of space as a leader in the locker room. And I've actually thought this for a long time. He'd always say, I want Jokic to be a leader. I want him to be more. I'm telling him to speak up. And sometimes I think you can't order that. Sometimes you have to read what's happening. I think David Adelman is not that guy. He's not an emotional rah rah speech guy. And it's almost like he's opened up space for Jokic to become more vocal to be. To really lead this team and direct them in certain ways. So there was a shot in the army. I think it has a lasting effect for this team that they're playing differently. Denver is good. Even in their championship year, talent was pretty good. They were one of the more talented teams, but they won because they were connected. They became more than the sum of their parts with how they moved. And I think over the last 12 games, whatever it's been, they've moved in that direction quite a bit. But they're still at a talent deficit in the fact that they have about six and a half rotation players.
- [105:32]
Zach Lowe
They're at a talent deficit, but they have the best guy and they have home court advantage. And you can throw the scoring margin out just like you did against the Clippers, who I believe had the positive scoring margin for the series. Denver's just taking a game by game and if it's close, you can give Jalen Brunson the Mr. Clutch award. He's been unbelievable. Nicola Jokic is the best late game player in the NBA. If it's close, they've got a chance. Adam Morris, if you're not listening to the All City Podcast with Adam and Tim Legler, boy, what a delight that is. I can't say I listen to every episode cause I just don't listen to daily podcasts that often. But anytime I get a chance, I pop it on legs is the best. You're the best. Who knows, maybe I'll see you in Denver. Adam Maris, thank you everybody. Thank you, sir.
- [106:13]
Adam Mares
Thank you.
- [106:16]
Zach Lowe
All right. Well, enjoy the weekend. If it's anything like the last week, it's going to be wild. We'll be coming back on Monday from Chicago, Illinois, where I'll be for the lottery to recap everything that happens and look ahead to whatever is coming next. Thank you to producers Jesse, Chris, Bobby and on graphics, Oscar. I will see everybody on Monday. Must be 21 and over and present in select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. gambling problem called 1-800- gambler or visit FanDuel.com RG call 1-887-897777 or is it ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or is it mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland? Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 Sport in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York.