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- [00:00]
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This episode is brought to you by State Farm. The best passers see every angle of the floor to make the perfect assist and State Farm is no different. They know the game inside and out and look at every angle to help set you up with a plan that fits your life and budget. Get the coverage that's right for you. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. Coming up on the Zach Lowe show, we got a special Friday show why Game seven is happening in the Western Conference Finals. The San Antonio spurs blew out Oklahoma City last night. In Game six in San Antonio, everyone gets an off day to travel. Or I guess the travel probably already happened for them last night. Back to Oklahoma City for the most eagerly anticipated game of the year so far, Game seven, Spurs, Thunder Last four have been double digit wins. Game two was a nine point win for the Thunder. I want a classic. I'm getting greedy. Enough double digit wins. Let's have a classic. It's Game seven. It's Shay versus Victor. It's the MVP versus the unsolvable riddle. We got J Dub back into the series. Did not look great. We'll talk about whether he even plays in Game seven. De' Aaron Fox working his way back. Dylan Harper had a huge game, just a really fun series. But let's hope that we get a classic. And waiting in the wings, the New York Knicks. Kurt Goldsberry is here. He was at Game six. He's going to tell us about the atmosphere in San Antonio. We're going to talk about what happened in that game, what the big trends in the series through six games have been, what adjustments we might see for Game 7, even maybe a starting lineup change. And who should the Knicks want to win? Should they even care? We kind of look a little bit at how the Knicks match up with both teams and then we discuss Mitchell Robinson's broken pinky finger, potentially a big deal. Quick takes on lottery reform which expectedly passed the Board of Governors on Thursday. All coming up after this on the Zach Lowe Show. The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. The conference finals are here. Thinking of how it'll go down? Take your shot with FanDuel and get closer to the action. FanDuel is the best place to bet the teams, the players and plays during the NBA postseason. Build the same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout or try live betting and jump into the action after tip off. Dave, download the Fan Bill Sportsbook app now and play your game 21 or over in President select states 18 or over in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org ChatInCenetic. Welcome to the Bonus Zach Lowe show and bonus because we are going to Game seven. It's in the Western Conference finals. We made it. We're getting a winner take all. Game seven. The first Game seven the west has offered us so far in the playoffs this year, I believe after the spurs blew the doors off the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game six in San Antonio. Fourth straight double digit outcome in this series and though game two was a nine point outcome. So we haven't had a thriller since the all time epic Game one. I tried to speak a thriller into existence for game six. Didn't work. I did predict the spurs win. I thought it was going to be close. It was not close. I'm going to try to speak a thriller into existence for game seven because we all need it. And the Knicks, the New York Knicks, just waiting, watching. Do they even care? The biggest story coming out of there is Mitchell Robinson's broken pinky finger and his potential availability for the Finals, which is a huge, huge deal for the Knicks. We'll talk about that. Kurt Goldsberry, you were at game six in San Antonio last night. What are you going to remember from the atmosphere, from the conversations after, from whatever?
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Yeah, this young team keeps answering the bell. I didn't know what I was going to get going down there. I have such a great respect for okc. The vibes in San Antonio are always reliable. That showed the nuns on the Jumbotron, coincidentally or not, that sparked a massive third quarter run. But for me, in all seriousness, like, this is a team that's too young to be putting up this kind of fight. So they get beat real good up there in Oklahoma in Game five. You don't know what you're going to get from these guys and they come and they answer the bell. So all playoffs long, Zach Lowe, this team has responded to losses against Portland, losses against Minnesota, and now losses against the defending champs. And they did it again last night. So I'm just struck again by how young these dudes are, but then how sort of ready they are to make these responses. And they did it again last night.
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A
It's interesting how the narratives flip game to game. So Game five they lose in Oklahoma City, a game that was there for them to at least make close in the fourth quarter and they couldn't do it. They Committed a bunch of dumb fouls and the whole like, well, this is the experience. This is the experience factor we've all been talking about. They're too young. The Thunder have the experience edge. And then in Game 6, season on the line, Wempy comes to the game dressed as a freaking monk, and they blow the hell out of the Thunder and force Game seven. And so if they lose Game seven and a couple of their young guys have, you know, shaky shooting performances and the Thunder role players who have struggled to shoot from three the entire series, we'll talk about Dort and whether he should even start Game seven in a second, have an outlier shooting game. Will the narrative flip back to, well, look, the experience carried the day in the end. Or like this team of young guys in de' Aaron Fox and Harrison Barnes and a little Lou Cornette has taken the Thunder to Game seven of the conference finals. Is the experience thing just over? Have the spurs debunked it? Or is Game seven going to be sort of stupidly, narratively determinative? Because to me, if you get to Game seven and you win a game like that with your backs against the wall, I kind of think you've already proven you're. You're pretty much ready to win the championship. Game 7 is a coin flip, whatever.
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B
Yeah, I think so. I think this team, they've proven a lot. And if, and if you talk to any fan, anybody around this organization, a coach, even a player, if you say, hey, back in October, we're going to have Game seven in Oklahoma City to go to the Finals, they would have been like, let's go. How do I. Where do I sign? This is. This is beyond expectation. This team has had a first playoff run. That is just incredible. And the conventional wisdom. You've said it. I've said it for the last few months as a team usually has to take their lumps. Bill has said it, and maybe they will. And I think that's what Game seven is really about. Right? Are they going to be the first team in a very long time to just go from, hey, we've never been in the playoffs to now, now we're in the finals? Or are they going to have one of these teaching moments that a lot of these young teams have? Either way, though, Zach, to your point, they've already done a lot. They're playing with house money to some extent. I know the players and coaches don't want to think like that, but when we look back at what we were talking about with this group in October, I think that is where we're at with them.
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A
I mean I, I guess we'll see in game seven. But one, one thing's clear, like everybody, and this has been clear for months now. The idea that they're doing something dramatic to mess with this core, to chase a star is like so far long gone. Like this, this, these three guys. Harper, who was sensational last night, jumpers forceful takes to the rim, changed the entire game after a couple, a couple of quiet games. Castle, who I bet he's not going to be talked about that much today in the wake of game six. Just a calm chill. 17, nine and five with one turnover. By the way, the reason this thing is going seven is that the spurs after a catastrophically bad game one and two turnover wise. And we know you can't turn the ball over against the Thunder and hope to win. They have five fewer turnovers than the Thunder. Game three to game six. Credit their guards for chilling out a little bit. And then WEMBY, of course, 28, 10 and 2. And for all the talk of like, well, he's got to get to the rim, he's got to get to the interior. Settle for too many jumpers. It was never going to be just that because the modern game for all, but maybe like two guys just doesn't work. Like throw it into the post and let him attack. And Wemby is big and tall and skinny and it's not going to work like that. It's always going to be a mix of outside and inside. His threes are going to have to fall here and there for the spurs to win. They fell last night. Four of nine announced himself right. He had three in the first six minutes of the game. And then the rolls to the rim started the isolation attacks where he was clearly focused on like, can I get one extra step, one extra reach, one extra pivot to the rim. Came just an awesome performance by the Spurs. And then you know, the Thunder. The spurs are now plus 18 for the series total points. Thunder's offensive efficiency for the series is 107 points per 100 possessions. That would have ranked last in the regular season more than ever. Regular season versus playoffs is like apples to apples to broccoli, basically. But still it's not great. And J Dub, who looms is a huge X factor. If the Thunder win this series and go to the finals against the Knicks and because of the way they match up. We'll talk a little bit about that later. Was a complete non factor in trying to gut out his return from a hamstring injury. We'll see if he even plays in Game 7. AJ Mitchell did not play. We have not really heard a whisper about his potential availability. And Shay, gilders, Alexander.
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B
Yeah.
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A
6 of 18, 15 points. Can we, can we just, can we, before we move on to the actual series, can we just put the 20 game, 20 point game streak to bed? Like, I just don't care anymore because it doesn't carry over into the postseason and these postseason games don't count, I guess. But anyway, he's just facing a riddle that he hasn't been able to solve. And I think for the Thunder to win game seven at home, they're going to need at least one of the following three things to happen and probably two of the following three things to happen. Number one, Shay is going to have to have a decent efficiency game. Decent to good efficiency game. And we just, he's shooting 37%, I think for the series. 38%, 26% on threes. And you see it, Kirk, it's just, it's a really hard riddle for him because the spurs have elite one on one defenders across the board. And he, he knows that if I get by that guy, or even if I don't get by that guy, I know who's looming once I get into the pain, the alien. And so he's taking just a ton of tough mid range shots that are one on one, designed to just be shots that get off before. Like I just gotta shoot before Wemby comes into the play and he can't. Like Vassell's a good one on one defender. Obviously Castle, Harper, Bryant, you know, Fox is the one I would go at a little bit more, maybe Kelvin Johnson. But even so, if Wemby's on the floor, right, it's just a riddle he's not been able to solve. So that's one. Number two, they were 10 of 40 from three last night. And it just feels like, it doesn't feel like Shay. Now Shay could come out and score 35 in Game 7, I wouldn't be surprised. But it feels like the more likely thing of these variables that flips the Thunder way is he starts spraying the ball out and they make more threes. And so that's variable number two. They were 10 of 40 last night. They did not make enough threes. And variable number three is the turnovers. And that's the ultimate solution for Oklahoma City to this half court defense that they can't solve is do they have one more game in them where they force 19 turnovers and get out on the break before that defense can set. I think the spurs are so good. I think the Thunder need two of those three things to happen. And it feels after six games like a Shea explosion is almost like the least likely of those three things to happen. But that's how good the spurs are. I mean, I don't, I don't. I don't think Shea has a magic formula to solve what the spurs are doing to him now that they've stopped trapping him at half court.
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B
I mean, you hit on all the things. I have notes on all of them. The turnovers for the spurs, just quickly. A lot of that has to do with. Not Emanuel quickly, but just quickly. Dear and Fox coming back and the, The, The. The turnovers that Castle had, just the nightmarish numbers we saw. A lot of that had to do with him being asked to do too much. And a lot of the eyeballs of that Thunder defense just locking in on that young man. As soon as de' Aaron comes back, Dylan Harper's bouncing around again. They can't just be as laser focused on him, but he's also done a good job of taking it. But that's a great point of something that has changed. That stat you pulled about the turnover differential since, I would say since Dear and Fox returned to the series in game three, that's a really big point. Because when you look at the splits in this series, and I don't usually look at splits, but there's six games now, and we can start to tell a story here and to the point about the turnovers, the single biggest differential, the variance in this series is all on one end of the court. Zach is all on the Thunder end. When they have the ball, they are scoring 124 points in their wins and 96 points in their losses. The spurs are pretty good for 1121-131141-12113, whatever that is. But the variance there and what that's. Why am I bringing that up now? Turnovers are the lifeblood of this team, and we've said it for years. Bill coined the concept like, hey man, this is the first defense I really remember that can go on a run by itself. They get a turnover, they turn into a bucket. They get a turnover. If you can control the turnovers and the chaos against the Thunder, when you have the basketball, that really reduces their ability to score on the other end. So I think what you pointed out, the first part of that thing, they Thunder absolutely need to get those turnovers in Game 7. And the spurs, on the other hand, need to prevent it. I think the SGA stuff you called out is the biggest story right now. I mean, this is a guy that me, you, everybody else was saying was the best player in the world just coming into the playoffs. He gave us no reason to change that after the first two rounds. He is averaging. His last four games have been the worst four games of his sort of time as a superstar in this league. He's averaging six buckets on 17 shots in the last four of these games. That's not good enough. And I went in, I was like, well, what's going on? The shot quality is way down. And why is the shot quality way down? Yeah, Stefan Castle, the Spurs defense. But what's not there? It's really a story of what's not there. He was averaging 9.2 layups and dunks in the regular season per game attempts. That's down to 4.9 in this series.
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I wonder what's going on.
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B
Well, and that's what it is. Like we can. The stocks and all the Wemby stats are great, but it's those kinds of metrics for the, for the dorks that just be like, yeah, Victor Wembanyama is the most valuable player in the series. He changes everything. Yeah. Shay Gilgeous Alexander, 9.2 layups and dunks during the regular season per 100. That's 4.9. He's making 41% of them down from 67% of them in the regular season. They're taking away his bread and butter at the rim. And then the last thing I'll say, dude. And this is the red meat for the toxic Internet right now, by the way. The toxic Internet.
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Is there any. Is there another Internet? Can I join that one?
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There was, wasn't there. It wasn't NBA Twitter, briefly. The non toxic Internet.
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Nope. You know when the toxic Internet took over from the non toxic Internet, Remember the hamsters that were like the dancing hamsters that were a huge meme and they had that funny high pitched song that was playing that I think was the end. Like that was non toxic Internet. And I don't know what happened to those hamsters if they all got hit by a car, but they're dead. And now it's a toxic Internet.
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B
Well, I'm going to flirt with the red meat for the toxic Internet here. Shea had three free throws last night. He had 17 in game five. And again, that's a stat to watch. Are the Thunder getting to the line? What did they have last night? And then I'll.
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12 attempts, I think 11 or 12, I think they were.
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Yeah. So that aggression on offense, and if you look at the splits, again, it's. All the things that keep coming up in my notes are on that Thunder end of the court. Zach.
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A
Well, you mentioned the rim shots, right? And that's the biggest change that's happened to Oklahoma City's offense in terms of its shot distribution, is they've essentially traded a bunch of shots at the rim for a bunch of really hard jump shots. And, like, it sounds stupid, but part of that is also transition. Right. Like, that's. That's where you get rim shots. Yeah, a lot of the time. And so by taking care of the ball. And Fox has not had a good series otherwise. And that's kind of what's a little scary for the Thunder is that Fox is averaging 10 points a game on 33% shooting. And a lot of his looks are like. They look kind of like de'. Aaron. Fox looks slightly. Maybe more difficult because he's a little bit lacking in his usual explosion with the high ankle sprain. But if he has a big game in him, that changes things. But all the easy buckets that you fatten up your efficiency on, that turns a shaky jump shooting game into an efficient Shay game. They're just vaporized because of the rim defense and because the Thunder are not getting their normal diet of transition stats. You mentioned the free throws. I do want to. I do want to say this. I think one of the. One of the sadder crowd moments of recent NBA history was the Thunder fans trying to throw the flopper chant back at Wembanyama. I was like, yeah, you know what, guys? I might. I might just. I might bag that one. I don't know if I want to be a Thunder fan and start magnifying flopping as an issue in the series and trying to draw a false equivalence between my guys and Victor Wembanyama.
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B
They call that what about ism and political discourse. Speaking of the toxic Internet, the what about ism, what about your guy? And I'm like, no, this is. You got. You got Neymar over there. You got the king of this stuff over there. All due respect, but in reality, in the arena last night, there's a few moments where Shay hits the ground, Caruso hits the ground, and, you know, like, Zach. You're just watching Zach Zarba. For better or for worse, we start to. Are they gonna. Is the whistle going to come? And it didn't come. Uh, so I think that's a bigger part of Game seven too than I would like it to be. Who's going to be the official? Will those whistles come when those dudes inevitably fall to the floor?
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So you mentioned all the offensive stats for the Thunder and the variation. I just brought up their game log on cleaning the glass, which I meant to do last night and forgot. Their two worst offensive efficiency games of the entire season, regular season and playoffs Combined are games 4 and 6 of this series. 1, 2, 3, 4. Five of their nine worst scoring efficiency games of the season are against the Spurs. So this is like just we knew it was a thing in the regular season. We knew the playoffs would be a little bit different because everyone's more or less available. The stakes are higher, everyone's focused and playing their peak minutes and all that, but it is really sustained. Like the spurs defense has strangled this offense and they're going to have to figure it out one time and I don't even really know what the answer is other than they just are going to have to make more threes because I just either Shay is going to just make a bunch of miraculous jump shots and have a great game or he's going to have an okay game or a bad game efficiency game like he's had and the other guys are going to have to make shots. To wit, I do wonder if Game seven is finally the time where we see a starting lineup change.
- [19:54]
B
Oof.
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A
Hartenstein and Holmgren are minus 45 in 60 minutes. Wemby didn't play Hartenstein off the court, not by a long shot. Hartenstein has actually become even more important as the series is going on. What he has played off the court is the Thunder's ability to play Hartenstein with any other big man because there's just not enough space on the floor. He's got to be the only big man on the floor or. Or not. Or just the Chet plus big Jalen Williams combo because both can shoot threes. I maybe they stick with it and start it again because I don't really like you can't bring Chet off the bench and I don't think you can bring Hardenstein off the bench. The move would be you can you just not play them with Dortmund. Dort is minus 54 in the series. That trio is minus 38 in just 38 minutes together. Dort is 4 of 22 on threes. He doesn't have an awesome defensive matchup in the series. That's been clear since you and I were podcasting on Christmas or the day after Christmas about This, this matchup. And with J Dub looking limited, I don't know if you start him. I think you probably just have to start McCain and Kayson Wallace or McCain and Caruso. But maybe they don't. Maybe they just say, we're the Oklahoma City Thunder. We're champions. We're the best team in the league. We have the best record in the league. Lou Dort is a homegrown cultural, cultural touchstone of our team. We're rolling with them. Role players play better at home. And like, you know, you could get a game seven where he goes four of eight from three and that role players play better at home. The whole narrative shifts in one game. I, I do. This is. This feels like the lineup change to make. Wouldn't surprise me if they just rolled with Dort hopes he has a better three point shooting game. I thought a lot of the threes he took last night were early clock too long, atrocious shot selection. But that, that lineup, I mean, they're getting boat raced at the start of every single game and playing from, from a hole.
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B
Yeah. And I think Lou Dort could have that Grant Williams game where everybody's just like, oh, man, I didn't, I didn't see Lou Dort hitting seven threes to put the series away. That can definitely happen with a role player in a game seven. We've seen it. Like I said with Grant Williams, there's the Peter principle concept here too, with Lou Dort. And last night I was, I was sitting on Meteor Row and I was talking to the guy next to me. It's like, playmaker Lou Dort. Not a great look. And why are we seeing, like, Lou try to make plays off the bounce act? It's because J Dub is limited. It's because AJ's not out there. And I want to give some flowers just to the Thunder depth too. Because, like, how many teams would even be going to a game seven on their side of this transaction without J Dub and without aj? How many teams could survive whatever your favorite team is, take two of your four best players out of the rotation and then see if you can go hang with the spurs in the conference finals. Like, they are so impressive. And one of the other ways that depth shows up is like, even when Dagnal throws the proverbial white flag at the beginning of the fourth last night, I'm sitting there talking to Isaac from the ringer next to me. I'm like, is this their white flag lineup? Because it's like, all these guys are good even when they're down there, it's like, hey, there's still like really good NBA players out there, so they're surviving. I do think that the door. I think the starting lineup will stay the same. But the other name that I think we have to bring up is Chet Holmgren, who simply has been invisible for too many stretches in this series, particularly in a series with J Dub being so limited and he hasn't been good enough. You mentioned that Wemby obviously takes a lot of personal pride in reducing Chet Holmgren's efficiency and God help anybody who he takes that sort of pride with. But he was, you know, he shot the least amount of their starters. Last night. You had Shea take 18 shots. You had Jared McCain take 11, and then Dort and Hartenstein 11 and 10. So you'd like to see something more from Chet, right?
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A
Well, I mean, and that's the thing. You watch, you rewatch all, all the Shea Hartenstein pick and rolls when Wenby is playing man defense against Hartenstein. And they're leading to a lot of floaters, which he's fantastic at. The Hardenstein. The Hardenstein push shot is a miracle of basketball. And a lot of three point shots for Lou Dort or Chet Holmgren or whoever they want to shoot. And the Spurs, Hardenstein can make five of six of those. They're not going to change the way they defend. Those are wins. Not that they go in and that's great. But the spurs are going to be happy in the aggregate with the shot diet that they're getting out of those plays on Chet. I mean, look, let's not mince words. He's averaging 12 points a game. He's the fourth leading scorer on the Thunder in this series. The second and third leading scorers are Alex Caruso and Jared McCain. It's not even that he's shooting 27% from three. It's that he's taking 1.8 threes per game. I don't understand how he's unable to get any open looks or take any open looks. And I don't want to hear like, well, it's just a bad series for him. You know, they're guarding him with wings. Tough. He had that one play last night where he had that really nice spin move, step through lefty layup against Vassell where he kind of bullied Vassell, his version of bullying Vasel. He had a couple of those plays in, in game five and he missed the layup. But Wemby had to come over and help and Hardenstein got a Put back. It's like you in a series where Lou Dort is taking a thousand threes. I can't get a little bit more of that every game from you. And he's also started and this is a very interesting push pull. He got a couple, a few put backs last night or a few like offensive rebounds where he crashed pretty hard from the perimeter because he knows he has a sides advantage. And I think that's almost a sign of the Thunder realizing like we're kind of desperate for points in the half court and we're actually willing to risk having a fourth guy crash the offensive glass from the perimeter because we think he can get it and we think that's our best shot at offense. But he has not done nearly enough. And Shay, it's going to be really interesting what happens on a micro and macro level if the spurs win game seven and Shea has like another six of 18 game. Because I do think in a lot of corners and with some justification I don't some, at least some justification, it's going to make people not rethink. It's going to be a slight taint on what has otherwise been a pretty spotless rise to number one or number two in the NBA two time mvp. If he can't figure out this defense and they go down in seven to a team that is way ahead of schedule. I do think it's going to change his perception around the league at least a little bit. Fair or unfair and I think probably a little bit of both. I think there'll be some over the top unfair reaction and some oh well, it's all Wemby. It's not Shay's fault and that will not be entirely true either. I do think a lot of it is he has come up, he has come up against a riddle that he just can't solve and his team can't solve. And a lot of it is just about wembanyama. Which makes the fallout of a Thunder loss more interesting than the fallout of a Spurs loss. The spurs are going to spurs. They're young, they're awesome, they have draft assets. They're not doing anything crazy. I do think, I have no idea how the Thunder would react to a Game 7 loss. People want to do fake Giannis trades and this and that. That's against Sam Presti's playbook. But I do think the way this is happening, with the unsolvable riddle of the alien, with J Dub's injury and ineffectiveness, with Chet's relative ineffectiveness, with the financial crunch that is Coming for a team that I think is going to be like $40 million over the second apron or something like that next year. Like I think have the highest tax bill in the history of the NBA. I do think it raises some interesting questions. But we're not, we're not there yet because they're at home for Game 7. Home teams don't win Game 7 as often as they used to. I think it's. It's two, two in four game sevens all in the east this year. But those two guys with J Dub not really being super available in the series are supposed to be the two best guys on the team. And, and Shay hasn't had a series up to his standards. And Chet is just like, I know it's tough, man. This is an elite defense, the second best defense in the league behind you guys. They have this alien that gives you fits. It really likes to embarrass you a little bit. I just got to get more like, I can't have you taking fewer shots than Lou Dort. I can't have averaging fewer points a game than like two reserve guards. It can't happen.
- [28:30]
B
Let me. That's such an excellent point. On. If the spurs lose game seven, we got to get a bit of. We got to get a better bench. We got. These Cornet Keldon minutes have not been great. We've learned something. We're ahead of schedule, quote, unquote. They're not changing it. The most stunning stat for me in this series when I looked it up this morning, is in 222 minutes on the court this series. Shea Gilgeous Alexander has a net rating of -7.6. That.
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A
That is part of. That is a. I looked up this today and I think that's part of. He's starting this game in a lineup that is not working. Now part of it is him, but part of it is like that combination is just not. Is not working.
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B
Yeah. That ultimate caveat is like, yeah, dude, this is the Bulls without Pippen and KU Coach, like what do you. However you want to say it, it's like, okay, don't forget Jdub was barely. He was technically available last night, but that was. His minutes were. Were not good. And so yeah, I'm not roasting sga, but some of these numbers are stunning. And he looked like the third best guard in the game last night because Dylan Harper had a marvelous game. And I'm not just talking about his scoring, which was hyper efficient. He had one of the best loose ball gathers and saves in a critical moment. Under the rim early in the game and just set the tone that we were going to get the loose balls, we're going to make the smart plays and then Castle is playing great. And so when you have to your point about the team building thing, if certain things happen in Game seven, you look at the guards in San Antonio too. It's not just Wemby. It's like these guards are incredible. Dylan Harper, as Bill likes to say, this is the worst he's ever going to be and he was marvelous last night. So I think it would be soul searching for a team that we thought was just so built for war. I don't think they'll do a lot. I think they're too sort of cool headed for that. I think they would look at this and be like, yeah, AJ was hurt and J Dub was hurt and that's what smart teams would do. I said the same things to my Celtic fan friends. Yeah, you lost Game seven. Jayson Tatum was hurt. Like don't go crazy, don't go trading your superstars because you lose a Game 7 in the playoffs when your best players hurt. Long story short, so much on the line for Game seven. So much to watch. But yeah, I'm watching SGA and Chad. If they're not good, I can't see a path for OKC to win.
- [31:05]
A
All right, let's take a quick break, talk about a couple other wrinkles and then the Knicks Are you looking for
- [31:11]
C
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- [32:41]
B
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- [33:12]
A
Awaiting A couple other things I wanted to get to just in this game, in this series. Looking ahead to Game seven, Number one on Chet. It's interesting to me that Chet as the only big man on the floor is just been something the Thunder have decided they're not doing anymore in the series and maybe that's just about their lack of perimeter depth. They're not playing Wiggins or Joe really at all and obviously J.U.B. and A.J. have been hurt, but they're playing Hardenstein as the only big man here and there. They're playing big. Jalen Williams is the only big man here and there. Their best lineups upside wise have always been four wings and guards and Chet and we just haven't seen that at all. And I don't quite know why that is thing number two and I wonder if you you talked about this with anybody after the game. I thought one thing the spurs changed last night that was smart was their zone with Wemby, which is basically a one man Wemby zone, was much less obvious, much more well disguised. Sometimes he would start possessions playing straight man to man and then fade back into his own in the second half. He just sort of played man to man like regular defense, even switched a couple of times because I think the Thunder had found some ways in game five to okay, we know where he is, we know it's coming. It starts at the beginning of every possession. He just runs to the baseline near a corner and Stays there. And I think the spurs very smartly were like, we're still going to play that here and there, but we're not going to play it all the time. And we're going to disguise it a little bit and be a little bit more unpredictable on defense. Even with Cornet in the second half especially they stopped playing zone with Kornet and just played straight man to man, which I think is smart. I think the Cornet zone stuff has not worked for them. Did people talk about that at all during the game? Because that was a subtle change that I think was important.
- [35:01]
B
No, but I'm glad you mentioned Cornett. People were talking about how Cornett had his best game of the season by far. He was plus 13 in those 13 minutes, which if you've been following that, I've been posting about it over and over. Not just because, boom, Wemby's out off the court. The spurs have just gotten blown out. It looks like a layup line for the Thunder. It started in the Wolves series. Portland really couldn't take advantage of it. But as soon as Luke would come in and Wemby would go off the Timberwolves, their eyes would get big and they would start attacking. And Whether it was AO or Ant man or Jade McDaniels, here come the drives. And it looks like Luke might have, might be hurt a little bit. But for whatever reason, the Thunder were able to start doing that again. And last night I didn't pick up on any exact adjustments, Zach. But those Cornet minutes were very good for the San Antonio spurs. And that's another sort of wonky thing to watch in Game seven. The Thunder absolutely need to win those Cornet minutes because when you look at Wemby's on off splits, he has a net rating of 11. The offensive rating for the spurs is right at 112 when he's on, but the defensive rating of the team is 102. And so they've needed to go out and just destroy those Cornet minutes on the Thunder side to make up for that difference. And when they didn't do that in the first quarter and then again in the third quarter, that's when this game got out of hand. So I wasn't smart enough to pick up on any sort of defensive adjustments specific to the one man zone. By the way, did you come up with that? I was listening to you and Mo yesterday. Is that your term, the one man zone?
- [36:42]
A
I don't know. No, it's not my. I don't think I made that.
- [36:44]
B
Take credit for it, it's great.
- [36:46]
A
It is a one man zone though. Everyone else plays normal defense and Wemby just sort of passes along his assignment. But they didn't do it as much last night.
- [36:53]
B
It's a perfect description of what's going on out there. But yeah, when, if, if Luke Cornett is a zero, a plus minus zero in Game 7. I love the spurs chances of winning that game.
- [37:04]
A
I'll say that it was. And a lot of those minutes are coming with Shea on the floor. And those are the minutes the Thunder absolutely have to win and they did not win last night. And, and one of the reasons they had a lot of Shay on Victor off minutes was Victor's sub pattern was a little bit different last night than it had been in the previous two or three games. He came out much earlier in the first and third quarters and came back in. So they were going quicker. Shorter stints with him. Couple other notes, J Dub. I mean obviously 10 minutes at one point, didn't talk to the media after the game, didn't look great, didn't impact the game at all. And I thought also notable, they did not put him in the game when Shea rested at the beginning of the second and the fourth quarters. And that's always J Dub and AJ Mitchell's time to sort of carry the offense. And I thought that, that said a lot to me of we're not over taxing him yet and we're just sort of seeing what he's got in the tank. And other than that, you know, I think Vassell's had a really nice series, just sort of unsung hero. Champagne's had a nice, had a nice series for them defensively and on offense. And a lot of their most successful pick and rolls disperse with Wemby rolling, which is always good. Champagne is the only guy on the weak side of the floor because that, that is the hardest rotation, the more stressful rotation for the Thunder to make. And I'm trying to think if I have any other, any other notes other than man, I'm excited. I'm excited. Obviously everyone's excited. I hope we get a classic. The stakes are enormous historically for individual players for a Thunder team that's trying to end the no repeat streak in the NBA. And by the way, if the Thunder lose game seven, we are guaranteed to have our eighth different NBA champion in eight seasons.
- [38:44]
B
That's right.
- [38:45]
A
Continuing that streak too. So. So a lot on the line, I guess. My other question for you is the Knicks. The Mitchell Robinson thing is we'll see Obviously, having a broken pinky is suboptimal. I immediately texted my guy, Jeff Stossman, Streetclothes, and I said, fire up the database. What does it say about pinky fingers? And he tweeted it. He texted me, and then he tweeted it. Time loss for pinky fractures is dependent on treatment needed. Average time lost for none. Operative pinky fractures is nine days, three and a half games normally. But nine days is exactly how much off time the Knicks are gonna have before the final start. And obviously, if you need surgery, it's a month. I feel like we'd have heard if it was gonna be surgery by now. Maybe not. I don't know. So my guess is he's gonna play. Easy for me to say. If I had a broken pinky finger, I would be like, I need someone else to type up my research. It just hurts me too much to type. It would seem hard for him to be a worse free throw shooter. So maybe the pinky finger is like a secret antidote to his free throw shooter. Yeah, but this is a guy who swings at a lot of shots, gets a ton of offensive rebounds. The Knicks offensive rebounding rate with him on the floor in the playoffs is 40%. Without him, it's 30%, which is still good. But it's like it's. It's mortal versus. Oh, shit. We. We are. This is a whole other lever of our offense. He and Kat can play together, I think, in either of these matchups a little bit, so. And they don't have. I mean, their backup is Huckporty or playing an obi at center, which they have done against both of these teams in limited minutes. So a big deal. But do you think, zooming out, who should the Knicks be rooting for on Saturday?
- [40:28]
B
Oh, that's tempting. The basketball gods. To borrow one of Zach Lowe's famous phrases. I think you don't do that. You don't root for anybody. But I'll engage. I'm not going to. I'm not going to hide from the question. If they were to root for somebody, you root for the Spurs. Like I technically a first year head coach, a bunch of young guys and a team that you beat in the NBA Cup. And you can roast me for calling the NBA cup relevant here. That's fine, but we don't get a lot of regular season precedent. That was a game that both of those teams really wanted to win, and they did it. And it was. It was an emphatic win that featured Mitch Robinson just being so great on the glass. And really just punking the spurs front court. So just a lap around the track on Mitch here. If you had to pick one player if you're a Knicks fan to break their pinky and still play that's the guy. To your point about the free throw numbers, he doesn't. He. It's not Jalen Brunson's pinky we're talking about out there but he is really good for two reasons. One, I think he is a tremendous vibe shift on the glass. And then two, our man Cat is a human foul. Right. He is the human whistle.
- [41:38]
A
That's a big X factor.
- [41:40]
B
And against Wemby who has drawn 44 fouls in the six games so that's over seven a game.
- [41:48]
A
Good math.
- [41:49]
B
There will be whistles in the front court if it's the spurs and if nothing else Mitchell Robinson is six more fouls for the New York Knicks front court to have to play with against the Wemby or a Hartenstein Chet combo. That'll be a much better combo when when Wimby's not there. So this is a big deal. Who should they be? I. I would definitely say they want to see the inexperienced team that they beat. The San Antonio Spurs.
- [42:14]
A
So that's historically the correct answer and probably actually the answer. They were 2 and 1 against the spurs in three games including the cup finals. Their the third game was in March at Madison Square Garden. Pre this Whatever the hell has happened to the Knicks in the playoffs it might have been their overall performance of the season. They blew out The spurs at MSG and the one loss was on New Year's Eve. Champagne hit 11 threes and set the record for most points off the bench.
- [42:45]
B
Oh that's right.
- [42:46]
A
Without even attempting a two and then they were.02 against the Thunder. Both games were pretty competitive games. One the Thunder ended up winning by 11. Pulled away a little bit in the last minute or so of the game. My answer is the Knicks have reached a point where I don't think they should care. I think they're they have as good a chance against either team. They can absolutely win the title. They might enter given the Thunder self situation as favorites or co favorites against either one of these teams. That's how good the Knicks have been playing. And I think both of them present some sort of inner. I went back and I prepped the Thunders Knicks finals just in case the Thunder won last night. Obviously they did not. I will do the same for the spurs later today. But you know both. Both teams put their bigs on Josh Hart and put wings on Kat Wemby guarded Josh Hart a lot and Hartenstein guarded Josh Hart a lot and so did Chet Holmgren. And that's why JDub, if the Thunder win is a huge X factor because he was their number one choice to guard Cat and switch the Brunson Cat pick and roll. They put Dort on Brunson and J Dub on Cat and try to switch that. And honestly, like going back and watching it, watching that film back, like, I think the Knicks are ready for all those tactics now in a way that they were. They were showed a pretty high level of sophistication tactically against both teams. They're just at another level now. They have more layers to their offense now. I think they're going to be ready for anything. But interestingly, if you look back and see the most screens Josh Hart set in any game this season was in that game against the, against the spurs in March because they put Wemby on him and they were like, you know what? We're going to, we're going to use Josh Hart as our screener. Cat, space the floor. And it worked. The second most was in March against Oklahoma City for the same reason. And the eighth most was another game against Oklahoma City. So that, that is clearly an interesting thing. Thunder also. Thunder. Thunder. Knicks is also the team that takes the most corner threes against the defense in Oklahoma City that allows the most corner three. So that's an interesting wrinkle. Anyway, we won't belabor the finals because, you know, we don't know who's playing, but I think the Knicks are ready for either one. And like I talked about the Chet solo minutes, Wemby obviously is the only big man on the floor for most of the minutes he plays, unless we get a little hint of French vanilla, which we haven't got much of in this, in this series. And the Knicks have often moved Cat around, particularly against the Thunder. They'd put him on Dort or Caruso like we see teams do and try to switch their action. So I think the Knicks, I think The Knicks, despite being 02 against the Thunder, rewatching those games, I didn't think the Knicks looked uncomfortable at all in them. I think they know where to push on offense as best they can. And, and Obviously they were 2 and 1 against the Spurs. Everyone's different now than they were then. But I think the Knicks should be comfortable in either one of these matchups. And man, boy, oh boy, man, I don't, I don't know. I don't Even know who's going to be favored in the Finals. I think the Thunder would definitely be favored. Yeah, but the Knicks are. The Knicks are ready and waiting, and I'm expecting Robinson to play in Game one. Effectiveness level, tbd. But we'll see who they play. Man, we got game seven. Any other Knicks thoughts before we go?
- [46:04]
B
Yeah, I think if there's one red flag. It's like, man, I bet the spurs and Thunder wish they could have played the Sixers and Cavs in these last two rounds, but that's.
- [46:15]
A
That's. I'll tell you this. They wouldn't have played him any better than the Knicks just did, because the freaking Harlem Globetrotters can't play the Washington Generals any better than the Knicks just played the rest of the Eastern Conference.
- [46:24]
B
Well, that's what I keep thinking about analytically, and I'm like, yes, okay, so before the Knicks fans come after me, they have peaked at the right time. They're starting. Five is great. Mike Brown has come in and done exactly what he was supposed to do. He's found depth. They made a good move at the deadline. They have Alvarado, Mitch Robinson and Landry Shamut. And Deuce McBride. The bench is deeper.
- [46:46]
A
Yes.
- [46:47]
B
But, man, the other seven teams in the Eastern Conference playoffs didn't exactly entertain me in the last few weeks. Okay. I'm not. I'm not. I'm not. The Hawks series may have been their toughest series, Round one, and definitely was their toughest.
- [47:02]
A
Yeah.
- [47:02]
B
Yeah. So, I mean, for a Knicks fan, I'd be a little bit worried about rust and the oh, shit factor. Here comes a team that is throwing a lot of heavier punches than who I've played for the last month, and I think that is a real thing. I don't know who's going to win Game 7, but either one of those teams is going to be like, man, we are. We are playing very hard. We've just won one of the hardest series in years in this league. And here we come. We're hosting games one and two on our own floor. We're sleeping our own beds. So the Knicks are going to have to sort of snap out of this sort of gleefulness, celebration mode that they've been in and come into a Western Conference arena and beat a really good team in game one. I think they can do it, don't get me wrong. But it is one of the more dramatic. Hey, we're celebrating. The vibes are immaculate. Oh, shit. We have to play the final sort of weeks that we've had in this league in a while.
- [47:57]
A
I think I said this with Mike Breen the other day. I think the fact that they just wiped the floor with the east is helpful in that regard. The fact that it was anticlimactic sort of reinforces to them that the job is not close to done. Like this was actually kind of an easy job and we have internalized how easy it was. Let's be happy that we did it. But the real job is coming and I expect whoever wins game seven, I expect a super long and competitive finals. And I can't wait. Any parting thoughts, Any thoughts on lottery reform which passed yesterday? I already had my take on that with Hollinger. But do you have any thoughts on this as a former team executive yourself?
- [48:37]
B
Yeah, quickly, the Mike Breen podcast you did this week was incredible.
- [48:41]
A
Oh, stop. Well, that's all my.
- [48:43]
B
That's not me. Well, if you're a Nick, I always love when a play by play guy gets on a podcast. Like when Al Michaels would go on with Bill, it was just like electric because they would. He would pull out these stories from Al's career. But Mike's ability to talk about Nick's history, Nick's culture, having the front row seat for all of these games, the dark years, the stories he would tell about his interactions with fans, I thought it really set the stage really well for the finals. I'm just buttering you up cause I want you to send me your notes for the finals preview. I have to write a finals preview and since you retired from writing, these things fall upon me.
- [49:18]
A
I'm on sabbatical. I don't know if I've ever. I haven't either announced.
- [49:20]
B
Send me your notes. What about a co written finals preview? I'll do most of the work, but a couple of Zach Lowe bullets, that would be really cool in there. What do you think?
- [49:29]
A
How about this? I will send you a screenshot of this paper, which is where I wrote my hand notes on. And if you can decipher them, I will.
- [49:36]
B
I'm Claude and I'll be like, hey, Claude, turn this screenshot into a Zach Lowe finals preview.
- [49:45]
A
I was going to say something about Claude that I shouldn't have said. The only thing I'll say about lottery reform because I covered it, is there are a lot of concerns. We'll see how it plays out. I'm largely okay with this proposal. The one thing that I'm very curious about is there's a lot of angst about this cliff between, like would I rather be the eighth seed than the seventh seed because as the eighth seed I get one ball and as a seven seed I get none. Would I try to engineer it so I just duck out of the play in tournament entirely and get three balls rather than make the play in tournament and get two. Two balls as the ninth or tenth seed I have. I just don't think any team is going to do that. I may be wrong. I may be naive. Maybe I am naive because teams game the system all the time. I just think the delta between play in excitement for your fans and your team and your I just. That is such a loser mentality and you're ducking out of something that's actually real and meaningful that I just don't see that as much of a significant. That's the only take I want to get off today is I don't. I don't see teams doing that to the degree that the Freders are worrying about.
- [50:58]
B
I'll give you one more that I wish I had come up with. But I talked to one of the smart executives in the league yesterday and he told me this. This current three two one era is set to sunset in 2029 and I wish I would have come up with this idea but there's some uncertainty about those future firsts. What are the rules going to be? Are we going to snap back to this system? So does it change how teams value those first round picks? Is it going to reduce teams willingness to part with future first? Because we don't know what the rules will be in a world where three two one exists. Like being the worst team in the league like San Antonio was or near the bottom like Washington and Utah where that's devalued. Obviously if we're going back to that, we'll see how these next three years play out. But one person told me, hey, we don't know how to think about our 2030 first round pick anymore if we're going to be bad. And I think that's a really relevant point of this rule system.
- [51:55]
A
Not only that, but the more unpredictable the lottery is and this get just got a lot more unpredictable, the more likely our pick might just randomly be a top five pick one year or whatever. All right, Kurt Goldsberry, buckle up. We got a day of respite and then Saturday night, tomorrow night, the biggest game of the year. The Knicks are awaiting the winner. Thunder spurs game seven. It's been an interesting series. I hope we get a classic kg. Thank you for your time and enjoy, enjoy tomorrow night.
- [52:24]
B
Thank you, Zach.
- [52:27]
A
All right, that's it for today's show. I will be on Bill's show live Saturday tomorrow after game seven of Spurs Thunder and then we'll be on to previewing the finals next week on the Zach Lowe Show. Thank you as always to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production. Thanks to Kurt Goldsberry. Thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe Show. Stay tuned. We'll be back next week from a site TBD. Enjoy. Game 721 are over and President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem, call 1-800- GAMBLER or 1-800-MY-RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincenetic or visit mdgamblinghelp.org In Maryland, Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5505, oh for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867.