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[00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by Claude from Anthropic. Picture this. You're still hours into trying to make the perfect trade for your fantasy team, and somehow you're still trying to narrow down your list. Classic Claude gets that. It won't hand you a neat answer, but it works with you. Until you land on one that holds up their research mode. Scours the web so you don't have to in Anthropic. Just committed to not putting ads in Claude so your conversation stays yours. Try Claude for free at Claude AI Lo and see why problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner. Coming up on the Zach Lowe show, the Mets have no one who plays their normal position. Is that a problem? Just kidding. It's a busy week in the NBA. Spurs, Pistons lived up to the hype. What a physical game. And Victor Wembanyama was ready for all of it. Didn't love it. He fell over a lot. He was mad at the rest. But he never snaps. He always gives it right back to you with some timely threes, some defense and the spurs, in a statement win, go on the road and beat the Pistons by 11. Does this game say more about the Pistons or the Spurs? Michael Pina is here to help break down all the fun stuff that happened in that game and then have the larger discussion that is now hovering around the league of you know, both of these teams lack the traditionally requisite playoff experience to be true Blue contenders. Are we worried about that? Does that apply to these teams who, who should be more worried about that? Or is this season just different? Is the level of parody and in the NBA just different? That that sort of precedent no longer applies? We're going to talk about all that. And then three to seven in the west, kind of a mess. Houston, Denver, Lakers, Wolves, Suns. Now Suns beset with injuries with the Dylan Brooks broken hand all hovering around.500 in their last 20 to 35 games, depending on which team you look at. Not great. We're going to look at what's gone wrong with either of them. Who is the best bet to actually make a Finals run among those teams? What's going on and who's just crossed off? If any of those teams are totally crossed off, then Zion Williamson, remember him? He hasn't missed a game in like quite a while in two plus months. But something feels wrong. Something doesn't feel quite right with Zion. What's going on with Zion? What should other teams look for if they're looking at trading for him this summer? We're going to talk about that and then one nice thing about a tanking team. Each of us picked a nice tanking team. That's all coming up on the Zach Lowe show with Michael Pena. This episode of the Zach Lowe show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless, just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers. Whether it's online or in person. State Farm's your teammate when you need help making your next play. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show. It's Tuesday morning. A blizzard happened. A blizzard's over and there was a blizzard of Victor Wembanyama blocked shots last night in Detroit in a potential maybe finals preview. If you believe that inexperienced teams can make the finals with minimal to no playoff scars will get there. A very exciting, very physical Spurs, Pistons game. Michael Pina is here to discuss that and a lot more. How you doing, sir?
[03:30]
B
I'm doing great, Zach. How are you?
[03:33]
A
Oh, I'm good. I'm good. All right. Spurs, Pistons. Spurs win by 11. 114, 103. Creeping closer to not only the number one seed in the west, which is in play for them, but now there's a three way battle for the number one overall seed in the playoffs between the Thunder, the Spurs and the Pistons. The spurs now have a five game cushion on the three seed in the west. And we're going to talk later about how the teams in the three to seven spots have all been basically 500 teams for a long time now. So that looks like a cemented status for the Spurs. Minimum at number two. This was a much hyped game in part because there were only two other games on the schedule last night. One of them was a tank off and one of them was a half tankoff between the Jazz and the Rockets. So everyone was paying attention to this game. National TV Peacock lived up to the hype. Very physical. Just right off the bat they're bodying up Victor Wembanyama. Cade shoulder check. Three minutes into the game, I think picked up a foul and was in foul trouble. It did end up playing 35 minutes. Did this game say more to you about the spurs and their legitimacy as a title contender? If you believe they are a title contender and and specifically their toughness and Wembanyama just, he responds every time like he may not like the physical play. Jalen Duran would Adam very first play of the game. They called a cross screen for Jalen Duran to drive in to Eman. Got a layup. They're bodying him up, they're hitting him. He may not like that. Got worked on the boards a couple times by Duran, who's like a freaking Greek God in there. But he always responds, he always brings it back to you and his defense travels every game. And this was one of his most dominant defensive performance of this of the season. Or did it say more to you about this was like a perfect distillation of what, if anything, one might be worried about the Pistons who are running away with the East a bad offensive game. 7 of 36 from 3 couldn't seem to decide who to play, how much to play a Sar Thompson, how much they could get away with playing. Three non shooters at the same time. Went all offense toward the end of the game, as much shooting as they could put on the floor. Which meant no Thompson, no Holland, no Javante Green. Cade, 5 of 26 did have 10 assists. Five stocks sort of a nightmare offensive game for the Pistons and that's the concern everyone has. Do they have enough shooting? Do they have enough spacing? Do they have enough secondary creation around Cade? So does this game say more to you about the spurs or the Pistons?
[06:13]
B
I like both of these teams. I'll start there and I don't really buy into the neither team or both teams are too inexperienced to go to the Finals. I think they're both verifiable contenders. To answer your question, I think it's Detroit because my concern with Detroit or my lack of optimism is more couched in most of what you just talked about, which is their complete lack of three point shooting, their inability to space the floor in the playoffs. I think that, you know, obviously the floor is, you know, a floor feet become inches in terms of space for shooters. And they are so reliant on, you know, Duncan Robinson is critical to their team and we've seen in past seasons when he was on the Miami Heat him get played off the floor for his defense. So I think that the outside shooting that they have, the fact that when Cade goes to the bench, they really don't have anyone that they can lean on to generate good offense. Those have always been my concerns with Detroit. I love Detroit. I love their defense, their toughness. The team that they remind me of the most, Zach though is the 2022 Memphis Grizzlies where the recipe there was, you know, very inexperienced team, had just lost in the first round to the Utah Jazz in 2021. They win 56 games in 2022. And their recipe was basically elite ball handling, all star franchise player John Morant, plus defense, toughness, offensive rebounding, and we don't have any outside shooting. And they win a playoff series, disturbingly close one, against the Minnesota Timberwolves in round one, and then lose to the Golden State warriors in round two. And so that's the team that I kind of think about a lot when I think about these Detroit Pistons. So this game did distill a lot of the concerns that I have. And granted they went up against one of the most ridiculous defensive players of our lifetime, but I think that that those concerns will still hold in the Eastern Conference throughout those teams as well.
[08:19]
A
So here's the difference between these Pistons and those Grizzlies. Or some differences. Number one, they're in the east and the Grizzlies are in the West. Big help. Big help. And I can't wait. We haven't really talked about expansion much on this podcast because I'm waiting to see if and when it gets sort of officially greenlit. But the battle royale to move from west to east is going to be one of the great pieces of theater in recent NBA history. Number two in Moran. Those Grizzlies had at least one weak link defensively. And I don't think these Pistons really. I mean, they have Duncan Robinson, he's less at the point of attack automatically than John Morant was. And I think actually Duncan Robinson has had a pretty decent defensive season for the Pistons. Number three. Those Grizzlies kind of exposed his front runners in every playoff run and over the long run. Now they had injuries both in that, in that playoff run you're talking about. Moran had injuries, their big guys had injuries. And they had injuries the next year when they lost to the Lakers in the first round. I don't think the Pistons are front runners. I think the Pistons, like, there's no Piston that's going to hip check Victor Wembanyama and get into an altercation with LeBron James and then duck the media after the game every time. That's not happening. These Pistons legitimately want all the smoke. That said, I. Look, I think the offensive concerns are pretty real. They've been a top 10 offensive team for most of the year. And it looks like they had a crazy offensive rebounding game last night. 20 offensive rebounds, but on 66 misses, that's like an average offensive rebounding, right? You'll take that if you're the spurs, if the shooting is what it is. And you know, down the stretch, I just made note of their layups. They're trying to come back. They play Cunningham, Dennis Jenkins. One of the great stories of the season. Kara Slivert, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed. Cause Duran is in foul trouble. And then they put Duran in. So that's like as much shooting as this team can put on the floor. That's J.B. bickerstaff being like, you know, Asar Thompson, 18 minutes. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. Javante Green, 13 minutes, 05 from the field. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. Ron Holland, spark plug, just outworking everyone from the second he gets in the game. One of six on threes. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. And then they went even smaller and they put Duncan Robinson in for Tobias Harris trying to max out on shooting. And you know, I think these are real issues that they can overcome with toughness, rebounding and defense. And they were in this game up until the end against a team that played pretty well. It. It doesn't change. One game is not going to change my opinion of the Pistons. This was a nightmare shooting game for them. I still think they can win the East. We can argue whether they should be favorites in the East. They're clearly going to be the number one seed. But I do think this is the reason why their ceiling to me tops out as finals team that probably wouldn't have a chance against anyone coming out of the west if that west team is healthy. I mean, maybe like a Minnesota snuck out of the West. You give the Pistons a chance because Cade is that good. Their defense is that good. But I think this is the. They could eat. They could make the finals because the east is what it is. But this is a real thing that they didn't really address. I mean, Kevin Herder has basically just not played. He's played just spot minutes. Did not play at all last night. And that was their big trade deadline acquisition. I suspect he will get a chance. And we should also mention beef stew, still suspended, has shot the three pretty well this year. That double big lineup has been pretty good for them. So, you know, just, they're going to have games like this and they're going to win some of them because they just outwork everybody. And, and you know, there's this, there's this thing about like, does effort and toughness, does it shrink as an Advantage in the playoffs when everyone is playing at full throttle. And I think that trope is a little overstated. Like, I think effort and toughness remains an advantage for the teams who really tap into it more than anybody else, even in the postseason. But it's an interesting thought. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't really change my opinion to the Pistons. I've been worried about their offense and they had a nightmare game.
[12:20]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think back to the recent win that they had over the New York Knicks without Jaylen Duran. And you know, in that game they were pretty creative in the way that they were using Cade Cunningham offensively, not like out of the norm with how they do, but less pick and roll, more off ball stuff. You know, pick the picker actions to try to get cat uncomfortable and out of the paint. And I was kind of waiting for more stuff like that to happen in this game and it just kind of never really materialized. They did a little bit of it, but it just didn't really work. And to your point, like once, you know, near the end of the first half, once like you put Wemby on Asar Thompson, it was really difficult. He played three minutes in the second half. It was really difficult to kind of play him going forward after that. And I just think that they needed to kind of diversify their offense a little bit. Like the K Durin pick and roll, like going at Wemby. And Wemby is able. He did this so many times in, in last night's game where he's just guarding two people at the same time and he does that all the time. But to do it against that pick and roll tandem, which I think is probably the second best two man combo in the NBA, forcing Cade into really tough shots, taking away the lobs. He, I mean, he was so destructive and I would love to just chat more about him and why like again, one game doesn't really change my opinion. I was already very bullish about the spurs, but watching him in a game that the spurs clearly wanted to win, he played his Victor Webanyama played his most minutes in that game since November 14th against the Golden State Warriors. They were so pumped in the fourth quarter when they were kind of extending their lead. They clearly wanted it. They clearly responded to the physicality on the road. Fearless Stefan Cassel, just absolute monster. So yeah, I just, I shout out to the Pistons. Very good team. Could easily make the finals. I don't want to hate on them at all. I just, I also just love the San Antonio spurs and what they showed last night.
[14:27]
A
Well, Castle had a great game, 16 and 11. I mean, I guess a good game, 7 of 16. And he really benefited from the gravity Wembanyama has on offense as a roller and a lob threat because he. And then Fox later in the game. Fox was 4 of 17, I think, in the game. And I still kind of liked the way that he played. I like he. He deserves a lot of credit for Castle has it rolling and Fox would be like, I'll just be in the corner over here if you need me to do a dribble handoff or shoot a corner three. And then at the end of the game, if you need me to do some Fox stuff, I'll be ready to do it. But you could see like, Duran was just staying attached to Wembanyama on the pick and roll. And like, when I say staying attached, I mean, not even helping at all, not even moving off him. And Castle would just drive into the lane and he's too big and too explosive to let him do that. And he would finish at the basket. But, yeah, WEMBY 2117, four assists, six blocks. Eight of his 17 rebounds were offensive rebounds, tipping everything. And the Pistons came in with a game plan. We're going to beat the shit out of him and we're going to see how he responds. And just. It's my favorite thing about him is he just. Every time he's not going to, he. He gets mad. And you could see him get mad. You can see his facial expressions. You can see him kind of flail around on the ground when he gets knocked over and he doesn't get a call, but he doesn't snap, or at least he hasn't snapped yet. Or his version of snapping is, I'm going to make a couple threes and I'm going to block everything. And he had. I mean, I'm not exaggerating. One of the craziest block shots I've ever seen was on a Cade Duran empty side pick and roll in the second half, a play they ran three or four times in a row. And he played the cat and mouse game where he kind of stabbed at Cade to make him think and pause, and then went back to Duran and he did this weird thing where he crouched really low to the ground, so low, bending at the knees that I thought, did he get hit in the stomach or something? Like, what is he doing? Is this a trick? And then Cade went up to take a shot, sensing, I guess he's bending over or touching his toes or something, and he Sprung up like a goddamn superhero and pinned it on the glass at the top of the, at the top of the box. And I was like, I don't. I rewound it. And I was just laughing in my office by myself because it was just absolutely preposterous. And then this is another thing. They ran that same play again and Kate hit a pocket pass to Duran and during dunked on Wemby's face for an and one. And then they ran it again and Wemby was like, I'm here for all of it. And he blocked Kate into oblivion on the next one. I loved it. But to your point, on his defense, when Duran was in the game, he guarded Duran. When Paul Reed was in the game, they messed around and put him on a Sar Thompson or Ron Holland and just said rove. And not only in the two man game was he able to guard two people. When in Cade's two man game there were a number of possessions where late in the shot clock disperse just straight up doubled Cade Cunningham or beyond the three point arc and just said, we're going to trust Victor to guard everybody at once. If you throw this thing in the paint to Ron Hollander, Asar Thompson and Asar got him for a layup, Ron Holland missed a floater. But it was just like you have too many non shooters on the floor. Like if you play Holland plus Thompson or Holland plus Green plus a center, we're just letting Victor guard everybody because we don't think those guys can beat us. And their calculation was, was mostly right. It was an. It was an awesome game. Any other final notes before we get into the big picture here?
[17:49]
B
No. I mean you hit it. A lot of it. I think that Stefan Castle's performance, you know, the way he bothered Cade full court got under his skin. You know, you mentioned earlier the hip check Kate had early on Wemby, that was a foul. Another foul that he picked up that was kind of foolish was when he shoved Castle to the ground.
[18:09]
A
And you know, downside, downsides of being the Pistons, like Now he played 35 minutes, right? But it wasn't distributed the way that you'd ideally want the 35 minutes to be distributed. And like downside of being the Pistons. Isaiah Stewart suspended. Cade picks up two dumb fouls. Like you gotta, it's what makes you who you are. But when the stakes get high, and they're not high yet, but when the stakes get high, you gotta be a little bit more calculated with it, 100%.
[18:35]
B
And just. I think Castle's defense Was great. Full court on Cade. I think that his playmaking, you know, he had a few turnovers here and there, but 11 assists. His play in the pick and roll was pretty excellent at times. I mean he started the game with a skip pass to Devon Vassell. And we should say one of the reasons that the spurs won this game was that they went 11 for 18 from the corners. That was a huge factor. Devin Vassell I think was their leading scorer. 7 for 11 from 3. As many threes as the Detroit Pistons team Champagne has been awesome this entire season for them. Just a critical player like their shooting was on point. But Castle, he had like that no look lob to to Luke Cornett that completely faked out Caris Levert. A couple of his assists were because the Pistons closed out hard on him behind the three point line and let him get downhill and he sprayed it out to corner three point shooters on those plays as well. So I think that like the defensive discipline there a little bit by Detroit was a little bit off. And in the playoffs that's what I'm really looking forward to seeing Stefan Castle against defenses that won't do that. And I think he's obviously found ways to mitigate the his inability to shoot one of them. You hit it earlier with the fact that de' Aaron Fox is totally fine like hanging out off ball which lets step on Castle be on ball and kind of does, you know, that doesn't mitigates the issues that he has off ball as a shooter, but he'll crash the offensive glass. He does all that stuff. But I just think he had a really impressive two way game and has become just Austin Rivers called him a star on the broadcast last night. He's just been so awesome and was so fearless in that game and so I just wanted to shout him out.
[20:31]
A
Yeah, a couple of things that you jotted my memory about number one, both of these teams and I was at that Knicks Pistons game last week and this really stood out in that game. The Pistons play with a togetherness and a pace in the half court that helps compensate for their shooting issues. They make quick decisions, they cut hard, they pass fast, they're good. Like all of their role players are pretty heady passers. Like even Ron Holland is a decent like connector passer. Javante Green is unselfish. They play an unselfish fast style where the ball and bodies are moving and that sort of makes up for their lack of shooting. And the spurs have really improved as a passing team. Castle's a good passer a very good passer already. Fox, we know Wemby's a good passer. Vassell threw. I mean, Vassell, I think only had. He had four assists last night. He threw some passes in that game where, like, they were doing this thing where he would set a back screen for Wembanyama and to start a lot of possessions, which, like, holy shit, is that a threatening action? Because if you don't help on Wembanyama, he's dunking. If you help too much, Visell can curl around and hit a three and they'll reverse it and have, like, Wembanyama set a backstreet for Bissell, too. And he, on one of those came off. No, it was actually a Visel Wembanyama pick and pop where he drove. Vassell drove to his right. Wembanyama popped. He saw the third defender stunting at Wembanyama and ad libbed and hit that guy. That guy's man cutting to the rim. I think it was Castle. Castle swung it to Fox for a corner three. I'm like, man, that was a good pass by Devin Vasilo. So both of them are good passers. And to your point on Castle, this is the playoffs, and how the playoffs are going to be different. I go back to a game the Grizzlies, back when the Grizzlies are a real team, played against the Spurs a couple of months ago, and I believe Edie may have actually been healthy for that game. It may have been a rare Triple J Ed game. They were like, all right, Harrison Barnes, at that point, you're. You're hitting so many threes that we're. We're not going to do the thing where we hide our center on you and guard Wemby with the wing. And now the spurs have since taken Harrison Barnes out of the starting five and put Champagne in to make that even harder. But what the Grizzlies did was, you know what we're going to do? We're going to put Jaren Jackson Jr. On Stefan Castle, and we're going to go under every screen and dare you to shoot. And you're probably going to make some shots, but we're going to mess with your head a little bit. We're going to take your offense out of rhythm. And you also just may have a cold shooting game. And by the way, if you try to beat us to the spot, like when we go under screens, you're trying to beat a former defensive player of the year who can block a ton of shots. And it threw the spurs off in that game. And I do think both they and the Pistons are going to see more kinds of these gimmicky defenses in the playoffs to sort of leverage whatever shooting issues they have. So let's go there right now because in the lead up to this game, and Bill and I talked about this a little on Sunday, we're now entering the stretch run. And so there's going to be a lot of talk about who's a real contender and who's not. And there's no question that these two teams, if you go by NBA history, do not have the requisite postseason experience that a typical championship team has. And I went back and I looked at every finals team since 2000, so like loosely, the post Jordan era to see like is playoff experience. And let's be clear, the spurs largely have none other than a couple of role players on other teams who have now imported to the spurs. No postseason experience at all. The Pistons have basically one postseason loss to the Knicks last year. Have not won a playoff series together. That's about as minimal as it gets for teams that legitimately think they can make the Finals. So champions is one thing. I went back and I looked at all the Finals teams and I got to tell you, it's actually hard to find a team that made the Finals with this little postseason experience. That said, I'm not that worried for a couple of reasons, but here are the teams that sort of like, if you're looking for analogs, teams that suddenly popped into the Finals and were not like microwave free agency teams. So I'm not counting the 2008 Celtics, the Ray Allen KG team, the first LeBron Heat team, and the first LeBron Cavs team. Those are sort of the microwave veterans. Like all these guys have been here before, super team kind of things. The closest analogs are the 2020 heat, who had guys who had made the playoffs before with the Heat, like young Bam Goran Dragic, but like with a previous iteration of the Heat and then were bad and then suddenly we're in the bubble finals. That was Jimmy Butler's first year with the Heat. The closest one is probably the 2021 Suns who lost in the finals to the Bucks, who went from like nothing to 80 in the bubble but didn't make the playoffs to oh my God, they're in the Finals. That was Chris Paul's first year with the Suns. You can go all the way Back to the 2002 and 2003 Nets, who went from 26 wins to back to Back finals. That's the Jason Kidd trade. So every time we're introducing a major superstar level player into these teams, I actually think, just as a thought exercise, last season's Pacers are kind of interesting because they had one prior year together of playoff experience where they made the conference finals in Pascal Siakam's first like half season with the team. They traded for Siakam and they got the Bucks who were injury riddled, and they got the Knicks who were injury riddled and they beat both of them. And then they were overmatched against the Celtics in a pretty competitive slash short series. So one playoff loss and you can find a couple other teams that had like one year of playoff experience. Like the first LeBron team that made the finals had one year of playoff experience with LeBron. They lost in the second round in 2006. And so you look at all of that together and you're like, boy, there's really no analog for a Spurs team with no playoff experience to make the finals or a Pistons team with one playoff loss to make the finals. I actually, I, I'm not. I think both of these teams can make the Finals. I think the spurs could flat out win the championship. And here's why. To me, the spurs, despite the no experience thing, are, are not far from the archetype of the 2020 Heat, 2021 Suns, 2025 Pacers, who again had a year of playoff experience. Because to me, healthy Wembanyama plus Fox is sort of like the equivalent of just adding a superstar player to your team, like in, in a, in a more traditional way that those teams did. I am a little worried that they have literally zero playoff experience and they're in the west and they, they have this sort of like, I guess Harrison Barnes is just coming off the bench now and Champagne is starting and who's, you know, they're relying on a rookie as their seventh or eighth man in Dylan Harper and another rookie in their 10th man and Carter Bryant, who played four minutes last night. I'm a little worried about that, but I just think Wembanyama is so good. And the teams below them are scuffling in the standings and the team above them in Oklahoma City, who I would pick to be clear to beat the spurs in a playoff series. But the spurs clearly brings something to the table that gives Oklahoma City a little bit of trouble. The Pistons, you know, they have the one year of playoff experience. It was a loss, but it was a tough physical, like, this is what it's like loss. They didn't really wilt under. Nothing scared them about the playoffs. They were a little skittish with turnovers earlier in that next series and they calmed down a little bit. They clearly are like, we want just we'll fight everybody. We're game for anything. Nothing scares us. They're in the east and you know, they are a little different in that they don't have like a major talent import that's happened to them. That would, would sort of in NBA history suggest that's the kind of thing that vaults a team from no playoff series wins to the Finals. But you know, like I there's also a chicken egg thing going on where like, yes, anytime you make the playoffs, your most likely outcome is to lose somewhere in the playoffs because the playoffs are really hard. So of course it's going to be hard to find a team that just gets into the playoffs for the first time and wins. I wouldn't pick either of these teams to win the title. I think the spurs can win the title. I'm not sure the Pistons can, but the experience factor doesn't bother me quite as much as it normally would. All of that said, I think when we talk about playoff experience, we talk about pressure and all these like testy moments. Like, you know, last year, Denver, Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City's down 2:1 in Denver facing a crisis moment. Their offense isn't really working. Denver's in his own. They're not making shots and they need these role players like Kayson, Wallace and Isaiah Joe to step up and make these monster threes under huge pressure. Did it help them that they had been in the playoffs the year before? Probably it did. But there's, there's some of that. Like I don't really worry about Wembanyama and Vesel and Castle. Like those guys seem up for it. I'm more worried about like it's just such a grind physically and mentally to get through four playoff rounds that you be that the wear down factor is real. The level of exhaustion once you start playing every other game is real. So I'm a little worried about it. But it's not a disqualifier for either team. For me making the Finals despite what NBA history says. And it's not even a disqualifier for me for the spurs to win the title. I think the spurs can flat out win the title. I'm not going to pick them. I'm not going to pick them to win the west if the Thunder are healthy. But that's sort of where I stand and I Look through it, it really is hard to find a perfect analog that would say, oh yeah, these guys can look back to this team that made the finals with no experience, but there's, there's enough closeness that I'm not disqualifying either one.
[30:33]
B
I totally agree about the Spurs. I think they can definitely win the championship. And I would say that Victor Wembanyama's unprecedentedness kind of eclipses the downside of youth and inexperience. I just think his defense is so overwhelming. If you told me that he will be healthy throughout the entire run and he'll be able to play 36 to 38 minutes a game, then like good luck to whoever has to play the San Antonio spurs because he completely alters basketball games. He, his defense defined that game against the Detroit Pistons. And by the way, only one mid range jumper for him, which, you know, I like his mid range game but sometimes he falls too in love with it. And so that I thought, you know what I like?
[31:20]
A
You know what I like? When Stefan Castle just throws the ball at the rim and he jumps from like the dotted line or he barely jumped. And by the way, Castle, Castle is an incredible lob passer and this area 51 chemistry is a real thing in that specific sense. Like he's a better lob passer than Foxes. To Wembanyama. He's, he's a. They have incre. He has just an incredible feel for when and where to throw lobs to Wemby.
[31:46]
B
Yeah, so I, that's a huge part of it. Um, I, you know, they aren't invisible, invincible I should say. Um, but like I love their, their defensive numbers and what they're good at. Like they rebound, they don't foul, they protect the rim. I think all that stuff will carry again. A lot of it is on Victor's ability to play and stay upright and you know, bring the same intensity and late in games with all of the beat, I mean he's going to take such a pounding. That's going to be a part of the game plan that every team that faces him is going to have. But I also think like if the spurs like a huge part of this is the path and matchups and matchups are so central to success in the playoffs these days. And if they get the one seed, there's a good chance that they. Not definite, but a good chance that they will be able to avoid a path that has them playing both the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I think that is critical and that's why I think that getting the one seed is so important and wins like that really matter. And then on the other side of it, Detroit, what I'll just say about Detroit is like, I look across the Eastern Conference and you said it before when I compared them to the Memphis Grizzlies, like who in the Eastern Conference is standing up and puffing their chest out and really declaring themselves as the team to beat? And there's a lot of variables. There's Jason Tatum. Have no idea what he's going to look like, have no idea how he's going to integrate. All that stuff is totally unknown. And you have the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think that's the other team that I would probably put in this conversation. Also the Knicks too. But I'd say like Cleveland Cavaliers are this team that is really interesting and just how they've played so far. And obviously they have basically no experience of playing Harden and Mobley and Mitchell together. That's been very, extremely small sample size so far with that. But that's a team I think has a high ceiling and can be really interesting in the playoffs. But yeah, that's a factor. Just like the weakness and the questions in the Eastern Conference are probably why I would be more optimistic about the Detroit Pistons than I would in a normal season.
[34:07]
A
Well, and the experience thing is, is so interesting. The Pistons do have that one series of experience was an important proving ground for them. I mean, they lost, but they went toe to toe with the Knicks. Really scared. The Knicks scared Knicks fans. Like, the Knicks fans were like, in my life were like, oh my God, this team is kind of terrifying physically.
[34:22]
B
Very close series. Very, very close series.
[34:25]
A
The Celtics, I think, you know, they've won a title and they have a ton of guys on that team who are on the championship team. They just have a professionalism to them that I think that experience is a huge benefit to them. They know what it like. They play like a championship team day in and day out, just in terms of their effort, their habits, their professionalism. The Tatum thing is a question, but he's also been there, done that. I guess the Knicks experience is a plus. Even though it seems to end with two years ago, it was massive, just wave of injuries against the Pacers. Last year it was heartbreak against the Pacers, but I guess it's a feather in their cap that they've gotten to the conference finals. You know who hasn't in this iteration, the Cavaliers in is their experience. Is it good that they have experience choking in the playoffs and getting out worked in the playoffs and getting out muscled in the playoffs and getting out injured, I guess, in the playoffs. Is that good? Is it good? That is James Harden's playoff experience, like a good thing for them? I don't know. Like, it can cut both ways. I think the Pistons can make the Finals. I picked the Knicks to make the Finals before the season. I don't know, man. We'll see how the east unfolds. I definitely think the spurs have the ability to win the title, but will be underdogs in my book, to the Thunder, assuming the Thunder are fully healthy. And they might be underdogs to the Denver Nuggets, too. Although the Nuggets, like everybody below the spurs in the west, is scuffling. And we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to talk about the next five teams in the Western Conference. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer of the NBA. Part of why we all love watching the game is the superior talent on the court. Spurs, Pistons. Wembanyama getting knocked all over the floor. Cade's hip checking them. Paul Reed's elbowing him. Jalen Dern's going right at him. And he just gets up and gives it back and has six of the most spectacular blocks you will ever see a player have, including one of the best I've ever seen on Cade Cunningham at the rim, leading the spurs to a statement win on the road. That's why we watch the NBA, to see guys like that do things like that. But superior plays aren't just for the NBA. Try Michelob Ultra, a superior light beer with only 95 calories. Even better, with Michelob Ultra, you could win courtside seats. Ooh, and more. Michelob Ultra. Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at michelobultro.com courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open U.S. residents 21 or over. Begins on October 1, 2025, and ends on June 30, 2026. Multiple entry period. See official rules@myclobeultro.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. Okay, the spurs, with that win, 41 and 16, they are five games ahead in the loss column of the number three seed in the West. Three to seven in the West. Sort of a mishmash chaos. Just a weird zone right now of teams with huge hopes. And like, these aren't just like, oh, second round, we'll be happy. These are teams that had big, big ambitions coming into the season. Or at Least their fan bases in Los Angeles did. Okay, here's where we are. The Rockets 35 and 21. They are 19 and 15 in their last 34 games with an average offense and an average defense. And an offense that seems to turn into mush in every single close game, including one of the ugliest fall from a head losses you will ever see a team with a superstar like Kevin Durant have at Madison Square Garden against the knicks on Saturday. So 19 and 15 in their last 34. At least they're over.500 in that stretch that I cherry picked. The Nuggets 3622 with the second hardest remaining schedule in the entire Western Conference. Although a lot of home games in hand for them. 16 and 16 in their last 32 games. My math says that's.500 over a pretty significant span of the season. Jokic was out, but they were over.500 in that stretch. They are 4 and 6 since Jokic came back. In those 32 games they are fourth in offense. This is just an unbelievable offensive team. It almost doesn't even matter as long as Jokic is playing. Who else is available, how many turnovers that they have, what they shoot from three. If they shoot 23s or 53s, they're an unbelievable offensive team. 25th in defense in those 32 games. 22nd in defense for the season. Oh, the Lakers 34 and 22 tied in the lost column with Denver, fifth in the West. They are 15 and 15 in their last 30 games. Another.500 stretch. 11th in offense for the season. That's a red flag. 24th on defense. That's a more predictable red flag. 15 and 15 in their last 30. The Minnesota Timberwolves 35 and 23 clinging tenaciously to six in the West. Hard schedule remaining, Lots of road games in it. They've played four more home than road. They are also 10 and 10 in their last 20 games and they are for the season ninth in defense, 10th in offense. So they're like very much grasping to top 10 on both ends of the floor, but we're kind of 10th. It's not that exciting. And then Phoenix also 10 and 10 in their last 20 games. Now two games behind Minnesota for the sixth seed, the all important sixth seed. They are 18th in offense for the season, eighth in defense. And over that 20 game stretch where they are 10 and 10, they have the fifth worst offense in the NBA and are dead last in shots at the rim. Let's start with this power rank. These teams on the spot. Michael Pina in Terms of Finals chances, chances to reach the Finals power rank these five teams, I'm going to snap, do it too. And we'll see how close we are. I'm going to predict we have the exact same ranking. One to five. You go first.
[40:16]
B
A lot of pressure. Okay. Denver Nuggets number one. Minnesota Timberwolves number two. Here's where it gets disgusting. Lakers three, I guess. Lakers three, Rockets four. And then was the 15. The Suns.
[40:41]
A
Yeah, the Suns. Just pencil the Suns in at five. With Dylan Brooks having broken his hand and Booker's dealing with some injuries, Jalen Green's being reintegrated. I think the Suns are headed for the play in which is a completely awesome outcome for them. But I absolutely, given their health situation and they announced yesterday or there was reported, I can't remember which. The Dylan Brooks is going to be out four to six weeks. That's more or less the rest of the regular season. You know, with maybe a few games at the end. Hard to see them climbing up to 6. My power rankings for finals chances would be 1. Denver 2. Minnesota 3. Houston 4. Lakers 5. Grizzlies. I'm out on the Lakers and I have it like no one's been in on the Lakers for a while as like this team can actually make the Finals. They just look so bad on bad nights and we'll get to them. Let's just like bounce through these teams in order that we just did it. Denver defense not good enough. Christian Brown's back a little rusty, I think. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson. So both their core power forwards are out. They're playing small as a result. A ton with four guards on the floor at once. And even if Watson were playing, he would help in terms of his length and his shop blocking, his rim protection and versatility. He doesn't play with the same force of Aaron Gordon. And I'm tired of saying that Aaron Gordon's legs are the biggest X factor in the entire NBA season because I don't think the Nuggets can win the title title without him at something like 80 to 100% because he just brings like, oh, we're playing Kawhi. Who's guarding Kawhi on our team? Like, Peyton Watson's not strong enough. He'll give it a go. Christian Brown, Cam Johnson, like, it's like, I guess we should mention Cam Johnson among their core quote power forwards. He's. He's also back not playing, by the way. Cam Johnson is just not. He's shooting okay from three, but he just, he just doesn't feel like as much of a presence and a threat as as he needs to be for this team. But without Aaron, Gordon's like, just, oh, I can exploit little guys by just sealing deep in transition and mashing you under the basket and drawing fouls and guarding and guarding guys like Kawhi, I just don't see it for them. But their defense, even beyond the guys who are absent right now, is just a fucking mess. Like, it's just a mess of communication mistakes. You know, I said this with Bill on Sunday. They reacted to Al Horford pick and pops and Quentin Post pick and pops like they had never seen a big man screen and pop out for a three before. Like they just didn't even know what to do. Wait, am I supposed to veer over there? But who's rotating behind me? They've had so many breakdowns of communication in transition where they are a train wreck. And in the half court where someone will post up against them and it'll be like a bad matchup so somebody will come to help and then that guy's man will just cut to the rim and nobody will guard him and he'll just catch a pass and dunk and everyone on Denver will be like, wait, but I thought you were supposed to help him. And it's for a team that started the season with the top 10 defense that we all knew was playing a little bit above its head, but was so connected and not making mistakes and, and making the right rotations behind the rotation, behind the rotation, they look like they're in total disarray. And I can't tell if it's rotation has been kind of in chaos because of injuries, guys in and out of the lineup, resulting rust for guys who are returning. If it's just they're missing too much good defensive personnel between Gordon and Watson or, or maybe it's all three of these things. It's just like wake us up in the playoffs where the Denver Nuggets, we won a title three years ago, which is like, you know, we won one title and we've been there before. I'm guessing it's a little bit of three, which makes me optimistic, but it's also a lot of one and two and the way they're playing right. And they've also like, I think this maybe is the downside of David Adelman being pretty experimental defensively with zones and hybrids between man and zone. Like, there's just a little bit of confusion that I'm assuming will lift in the playoffs. But even if it does lift if Aaron Gordon's not Aaron Gordon, I really just would have a hard time picking this team over Oklahoma City.
[45:06]
B
So I, I, I agree with a lot of what you said. I personally just never wary about The Denver Nuggets 22nd defense. Definitely not ideal, not what you want. When they won the title, they were 15th in the league going into the playoffs and I think a lot of people were not writing them off, but that was seen as their defense is just not good enough to win an NBA championship. That was the big question. And so to be 22nd right now, not great to me, like they still have the best offense in the NBA. An offense that is just otherworldly when the best player in the world is on the court. And like, yeah, it just, it's not to be reductive, but I think health is a huge factor here. And you know, there's, they play these pretty small groups right now because of Gordon's absence and Peyton Watson's absence. And like, you know, if Gordon is not available, they probably can't get to the finals unless another team that they're playing is snake bitten as well. So that's just kind of what it is. And so I think in the playoffs this team has a lot of experience. I think that top to bottom, the roster is better than the one that won the NBA championship a few years ago. And I, you know, I like their depth, I like their outside shooting more. So yeah, I'm just not, I'm not too concerned with the Nuggets. I still think they're definitely a championship contender. I still think no one wants to play them in a seven game series. And I would hope that some of the, like, the less forgivable defensive issues are correctable when you know you're at full strength and you're more focused on each possession because it's the postseason. I guess we'll see. But I don't really worry about the Denver Nuggets.
[47:02]
A
I'm a little worried about the defense because it's reached a critical point of like, you just can't be this bad no matter how great Jokic is and how great your offense is. The competition in the west is too good. Like Christian Brown's point of attack defense, their point of attack defense, top to bottom has not been good enough. They're getting blown by on the perimeter a lot and like Christian Brown's just not a stopper in that sense. But I assume some of that is also just like he's coming back from an ankle injury that compromised his mobility a bit. He's definitely looked more explosive and engaged offensively lately. Tim Hardaway Jr. Is a minus defender. They're just playing a lot of small guys who are eh defenders now. Jokic's turnovers are way up. That's part of the reason why they're 4 and 6 since Jokic came back. And they're a team that is not built to turn the basketball over because their transition defense is not great. Jokic is not the fastest guy and they don't force any turnovers on defense. I think they're last in the league enforcing turnovers on defense. So if that equation flips too far to their disadvantage, it's not good. So I'm a little worried. But you know, they will definitely play better as guys get healthier and as the stakes get higher. I'd also just like no more sitting Jokic and Murray at the same time. Like. And I think they know that. I think it's something they do in the regular season. It's cost them in a bunch of games lately. That's an easy thing to clean up. It has nothing to do with their defense. It's an easy thing to clean up. And yeah, offensively they're just unassailable because of Jokic. I do want to take this opportunity though, and I said this at the time when the trade happened, I thought Michael Porter Jr. Was like wildly disrespected in the narrative about that trade. Everybody viewed that trade as just like not even setting aside the cap implications and how it freed them to get balance units and whatever they did afterwards. Even in a vacuum. The consensus was great trade. Michael Porter Jr. Is a knucklehead. He can't play any defense. He's got health issues. He played the playoffs with one arm. He's got these back issues that are lingering. Cam Johnson is plug and play. And I was like, I like Cam Johnson fine. He's a very good shooter. And I just, I just think people did not give enough respect to this dude is 610 and is an A plus plus 3 point shooter and what a boon that is for any team. With Jokic, his rebounding was A plus. Yeah, he's a minus defender. When did Cam Johnson become fucking Scottie Pippen that we're talking about him like this? And also Cam Johnson doesn't play very much and Cam Johnson has been okay this season. Michael Porter Jr. Is in a slump now. Part of the reason is in his slump. He's playing with 9,000 rookies on a Brooklyn team that doesn't want to win. I just, like, I think this trade has been a net loss for the Nuggets so far. Even. Well, I mean, they got Valentunas. He's been big for them. So I guess I have to walk that back a little bit. But I think they miss Michael Porter Jr. And it's not just Aaron Gordon being an X factor. If Cam Johnson doesn't give them a little more on offense, a little more oomph, a little more threat, a little more on ball, this was like he was supposed to be the guy who keeps the offense moving by attacking closeouts and running secondary pick and rolls. And you see like glimpses of that. Like, I don't know. I thought at the time people were talking about Michael Porter Jr. Like he was a bum. Like he was just an appendage that the Nuggets carried to the title. He was an important part of their team and I think that has. Now their offense is. Is top two anyway, so it doesn't matter. But anyway, I don't know. I just need more from Cam Johnson. Okay. Our second in the power rankings. Both of us had Minnesota despite the fact that they are sixth. I don't know, man. They've been my sleeper title contender all year. There was a point where they were top six on both ends of the floor, and I was pretty happy. Now they're top 10, 9th and 10th. Defense has slipped to 14th overall in their last 20 games. Not a crisis. They're giving up more shots at the rim. Teams are shooting well from three. That's probably luck. They will get more consistent in the playoffs. This is a team with a track record of playoff success two straight conference finals. It's not a fluke. They're a good team. They haven't sustained a high level of play for long enough yet this season. And I'm starting to worry that this sort of scattershot nature of their play. Oh, they played down to their competition and everyone assumes that will not be a problem when there is no down competition in the playoffs. I would just like to see like these last 25 games, IO's in. He's a huge part of their bench now. He's played pretty well since they've got. They got him. He's a perfect player for their team. Randle's been for. We really up and down for the last six weeks. I need to have my. My faith is like 15% chipped away at and I need to have that 15% one back in these last 25 games for me to look at this team and say, yeah, they can win three playoff series in the West. They need to show me a level of consistency that I have not seen in a while now.
[52:07]
B
I haven't been as optimistic about the Minnesota Timberls as you have. I, I like what I've seen from IO Desumu. So that's, I think that that has been, you know, I want to see a little bit more from him, but his just, you know, way more than a spot up shooter. He's attacking in transition. He'll bring the ball up the floor occasionally. He'll come off a screen in the corner and run a little second side pick and roll. He'll attack closeouts, keep his dribble alive in the paint, make something happen. He doesn't panic. So I think just the upgrade of having that on your team as opposed to just being so overly reliant on Bones Highland, you know, playing those two together, you're a little bit more dynamic when Ann is on the bench and just obviously, you know, not having the. To also rely on, you know, Mike Conley or Rob Dillingham. So I think that just the element of his impact, his size as well has been good and bodes well for the future and I think he'll show up in a playoff series and really be a plus otherwise like this is such a high variance team throughout the regular season and I do agree with you that things will stabilize hopefully in the playoffs and they'll be able to kind of lock in and focus and be the team that has gone to back to back Western Conference finals. But man, like some of the losses that they have really just stick in my head that are just so like mind melting. And I know that they didn't have Rudy Gobert or Nas Reed in that game against the Sixers. So I want to cross it off. But just like getting blown out like they did just like I don't know. So yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't. I would be very, very, very surprised if they came out of the west because I have a lot of respect for the teams above them. But I also just, man, some of the losses, I just, I just, I don't know what to say. So the Minnesota Timberwolves, everyone.
[54:12]
A
Yeah, I'm getting a little tired of post game press conferences where they're like, yeah, we just weren't focused tonight and we just got to be focused next time. And yeah, you know, I've got to be, you know, I wasn't paying attention off the ball on defense. I got to focus this time. And Rudy Called them out a couple of weeks ago for just basically not playing hard or just like, you know, they had a lot. I can't remember who it was. It was a game I watched. I think it was against the Clippers maybe, where they just decided like, collectively, just every single player on the team, just without speaking about it. Just, it just happened. And the Lakers have games like this too, where it just happens to their offense. Like, we're just not going to play with any flow. We're not going to play our system stuff. We're just going to kind of go through the paces and walk around and just like you ISO then I ISO and they get to the end of the game and they lose. They're like, yeah, we can't play that way. It's not the way we play. We didn't have our flow today. It's like, all right, okay. I mean, can you just bring that like 70 of the 82 games of the year? Because you're going to need it in every single playoff game. I still, I just have. The track record of playoff success is real. Their defense with Gobert on the floor is going to be borderline elite no matter what. And I just have a ton of faith in Ant. I just think he's a killer. He's. He. You cannot really stop him. He can score from anywhere, in any manner. And I think his decision making as their sort of de facto point guard has been good. He's a little overburdened in that role. But their offense with him on the floor is unbelievable. Their starting fives offense, offensive numbers is unbelievable. So I don't really think it's a detriment. I just need to see a little more consistently consistency. I would rank them though, fourth now in the West. If we're talking like, can they make the finals power rankings now that could also be fourth in the can they win the championship power rankings. If we're talking east versus West. So someone in the east has to make the finals and someone will deserve it. There are good teams there. Let's do the Lakers and Rockets together. I am, I have. I crossed the Lakers off as a finals team a long time ago. I think they could win a playoff series. Two, it seems like unlikely, but you know, those, the talent of those three offensive players is undeniable. And the Rockets, it just feels like the offense is a little broken and they are 20th, 22nd in crunch time offense and 29th in turnover rate in crunch time. It just feels like there isn't enough juice offensively and there isn't enough creativity. They don't shoot a lot of threes. We know that. It's just too much of their offense. And again Fred Van Vliet injury hovering over all of this. Something that I thought was undersold as an impact on a championship team because there was so much like, well we could see Reed Shepard and Amen Thompson and yeah, those guys have advanced in their games. It turns out you kind of need a player like Fred Van Vliet. At least one did. Email Doka is going to trust late in games because when Reed shepherd is not out there late in games and we saw this against the Knicks, it's kind of just like Sengun do something Durant do something and it's just really tough sledding for them. Teams are going to hide their weakest defender on Tari Eason the next that's where the the Knicks put Jalen Brunson and they Houston through Tar Eason into some two man stuff in that game and said we're going to, you know, use him as a screener, even use him as a ball handle. And it worked now and then, but it's not something they're going to go too late. Shingoon's jumper, I think an under an underplayed storyline of the season is his jumper just has kind of fallen off the face of the earth. Remember he like shot threes out of the gate. He was like oh my God, is he going to be a high volume good three point shooter? No. And teams guard him as such and there just isn't enough stuff going on offensively or enough depth of offensive talent for me to trust them. That said, and I said to the Bill on Sunday, every crunch time loss like the one against the Knicks, I'm just sitting there watching being like dude, will you put Reed shepherd in the game? I'm not like a Reed shepherd is some kind of savior offensively. What he is is a quick twitch ball handler who can pull up from three and run a fast paced pick and roll that just gets shit moving offensively in a way that no one else on the team is really going to do. And I think in those minutes where they're stalled out, where they're melting down, where they're committing every variety of turnover imaginable and he's rotting on the bench because IME Odoka doesn't trust his defense with some justification, he's undersized, he's going to be hunted. Yeah, he makes plays with his hands, he's active, he's smart. But like There are certain physical realities that are not going away. I just feel like the trade offs of what he's going to do to the offense outweigh the weaknesses on defense and you just need to bring him in the game to loosen things up. But it just doesn't feel, this feels like a. It's not their year year for the Rockets, which it's easy to kind of excuse that as well. Van Vliet injury, sort of. If he doesn't come back, that's sort of just a gap in the roster and they save their ammo for trades for the off season. And that's all well and fine, except Kevin Durant is 37 years old or whatever and playing the most minutes on the team. I don't know, man. Doesn't seem like it's their year. You have any faith left, you're out. You told me you're there. You're just totally out.
[59:31]
B
I'm 100% out. Watching that Knicks game, I was, I was. That was it. That was the nail in the coffin for me. I agree about Reed. I think he can help. I, I don't think that he is the Magic skeleton key to save their season or save their woeful crunch time offense. I just, I think that the combination of Fred VanVleet and then also Steven Adams, who was just so critical.
[59:58]
A
Thank you.
[60:00]
B
And not having him just takes away so much of their identity and just what they were about and you know, the second chance opportunities obviously that he helped create. I think he was an underrated defender for them as well. So it just, it's too much to overcome. Like there's no shame in that. I thought that. But you know, their inactivity at the trade deadline spoke volumes. They obviously wanted to keep everything, all their assets for another run at it in the off season. And you make a great point about Kevin Durant's age and how there's risk there as well, but I just didn't. I don't think there was a move to be made that could have vaulted this team to, to winning the championship this season. I don't think that they are particularly close. I think their offense is just so elementary when it matters the most. And maybe next year with Fred and with hopefully Steven Adams is healthy, they can come back and Kevin Durant can stay healthy as well and everyone's a year older, a year more mature and they kind of, you know, give a hearty performance in the playoffs and don't embarrass themselves like that would be. That's something to look forward to. But this year I just, I'm totally out on the Houston Rockets in the
[61:19]
A
west even at full health, even with Stephen Adams giving you a 45% offensive rebounding rate when he's on the floor, which is what they had. Be tough and big is just not enough of an identity to win three playoff series in the West. And you just need more creativity on offense, more to your team DNA than just that. Now you can get like even now without Stephen Adams. They could absolutely win around in the west depending on who they draw because they are that tough, their defense is that good, they are that menacing on the glass. 2 depending on again matchups and health. Like it's hard for me to see them beating Denver, San Antonio or Oklahoma City or Minnesota in a second round series, whoever that is possible again, but it's hard for me to see. And the Adams thing, you know, the flip side of Adams being out is they now toy with smaller lineups with Jabari Smith Jr. At center or even like like they put Finney Smith at center. Finney Smith has given them nothing and has no confidence offensively right now and that needs to change. Those lineups, particularly with Jabari at center and not Reed shepherd on the floor, are interesting because they're so switchy defensively. Like legitimately 1 to 5, no weaknesses, no small guys, no slow guys, like a legit 1 to 5 switchy team. Not enough juice offensively though. And that's the sort of endless issue. And the Lakers, if you want to get just distill the Lakers experience in two games. The Clippers game over the weekend, which they won by three. The Clippers missed a buzzer, beat Batum. I think Mr. Buzzer beating three at the end of the game after LeBron threw an inbounds pass away. And then the Celtics game after that, complete opposite performances against the Clippers. Reeves, LeBron and Luca reunited in the starting five. By the way, that trio minus 10 per 100 possessions so far this season. Be that as it may, reunited in the starting five, they played with some real synergy and vigor among the three of them. And what I mean by that is like sets where Luca, I'm sorry, LeBron and Austin Reeves run a two man game that gets a mismatch. LeBron posts up, Luca relocates and attacks a closeout. When the help comes to him, LeBron and Austin Reaves run a two man game on one side of the floor. And the whole point of it is just to tilt the defense over there, swing to Luka, catapult into a Luka DeAndre Ayton pick and roll with the defense already scrambled, running Luka off flare screens so he catches the ball on the move like they were working to all the split actions that JJ Redick always talks about and loves where you enter the ball to LeBron and Luka and Reaves run a split screen or luka handles and LeBron and Reaves run a split screen and they hunt the littlest guy on the floor and things are moving around all of that against the Clippers full throttle. They score 125 points. They beat a team that's been the hottest team in the NBA for two months. Look like a really, like an offensive team that, yeah, the defense is not good, it's never going to be good. Don't have the personnel to be good, but we're dangerous. Then they play the Celtics. Biggest rivalry in the NBA. Landmark national TV game. The Celtics got the green uniforms on, everybody's watching. And the Lakers big three looks like. No interest in playing together, no interest in running anything. Collectively they score some pathetic amount of points. Luka plays Luca ball and it's not going great. Everyone's disengaged and they just get completely outworked and outclassed by a professionalized Celtics team who goes on the road and beats their ass. And it just leaves you in the end with no faith that this team can win multiple playoff rounds, no faith in their defense, and just the lingering feeling that everyone around the league has had for a year now that this Lakers team is about 20, 27 and beyond. And this is a fun, nice little placeholder that can win some games despite a negative point differential, despite the fact that the Luca, The Luca, Reeves, LeBron, it's not just that they're minus 10 per 100 possessions, minus something big for the season. They've only played I think 12 games together. Those three, their numbers as a team, when they're on the court, they are in the zero percentile, which I'm not even sure that's a thing. Like the lowest possible percentile in offensive rebounding rate. When those three play together, they're in the 8th percentile for all lineups of free throw rate. When those teams play together, they don't get to the rim at all. They don't shoot threes at all. They're entirely dependent on mid range jumpers. There's just no like no force, no oomph. It's just Luka playing Luca ball and he's amazing, but I just, it's, it's not, it's not happening
[66:01]
B
totally out on the Lakers have no chance. I man, that it's happened kind of all season. But it kind of hit me watching the them against the Celtics where Luka Doncic's defense, it's gotten to a point where, like, do you remember when Harden was like, you know, in the 17, 18, maybe 16 era, when very good player, incredible MVP candidate, ridiculous numbers, but like, once a week there would be a meme where he would just glitch out on defense and just be standing still and action would be happening around him.
[66:42]
A
Not only do I remember that it still happened. Just watch. Just watch a Cavs game and you'll get a meme. One meme.
[66:49]
B
Yeah, very fair. But that's happening with Luka quite a bit in a way. That is for someone who is so. The way he plays on offense, where you made a really interesting point recently with Bill about his shot selection and just kind of, I guess, like, correct me if I'm wrong, but kind of just like the volume he was shooting at and he was taking shots that maybe he wasn't in the past, as opposed to looking for the lob or looking for the skip. And obviously the surrounding personnel impacts that. But ever since you said that, I've been looking out for it. And for someone who will take like, a contested step back three with 17 on the shot clock and his team down like, 12 points in the third quarter, just like a shot that his team just, like, doesn't need for him then to turn around. And you know, there was one play where against the Celtics where he's supposed to be guarding him and Jake Laravia are. The ball's inbounded to Peyton Pritchard, and Jake Laravia is standing in front of Peyton Pritchard. He points at Jaylen Brown for Luka to go cover Jalen. Luka just stands still and he's basically like, waving Jake to go pick up Jalen. So Peyton Pritchard sees this, throws the ball to Jalen Brown. Jalen scores. Stuff like that is just. It's got to be so annoying to play with him, let alone just like some of the. Obviously we don't need to go into, like, the antics, but it's just like,
[68:22]
A
oh, no, let's go. Let's go into the antics.
[68:25]
B
Let's go into them.
[68:27]
A
The whining is back at just peak slash Nadir Dallas levels. It's every fucking play. Just play, man. Not everything is a foul. And it's almost like, are you playing to draw a foul or are you playing basketball like, which one are you doing? Are you playing one on one and like with the refs or are you playing a game? It's every single possession now. It's completely out of control. It's back to Dallas levels. It's just unwatchable and I hate it because he's a genius. He's a literal basketball genius who can get any shot and any pass he wants. And what you're talking about, what I've said is something is just not sat right with me this year and that there is, it just doesn't. The numbers are unbelievable and they'll always be unbelievable. It doesn't feel as unsolvable as Dallas, Luca. It doesn't. It feels like some of the predatory passes where he's, he's out, he's passing two steps ahead of the defense and he's, and you can tell he's enjoying passing two steps ahead of the defense. Like I am going to use my passing as a predatory weapon and not as a last resort, not as like, well, I guess I can't get a shot this time and I have every pass in the bag. Here's the over the head pass to the corner. Those passes just. He's not as manipulative from two steps ahead. He's not as selflessly manipulative as he was in Dallas. And some of that again is the personnel, they don't have the lob threats, they don't have the level of shooters, they don't have the kind of personnel that might motivate him to be selflessly manipulative. But he's, it just feels like he's hunting points now. And one of the differences between that Clippers game and that Celtics game, the two different games I mentioned is the Luka hero ball threes went in against the Clippers. And when they go in, it's like, you just like, wow, unbelievable. The guys just made five step back threes in my face. They didn't go in against the Celtics. And it just feels different. And none of this says that he's not a first team all NBA player, that he's not an MVP candidate. He's all those things. But something is different about the way he's playing with the Lakers versus when they made the finals in Dallas. And it's, it's hard to describe and hard to see, but it's there. And it's. Again, some of it is beyond Luka and it's roster construction. I just haven't enjoyed it. His defense is just what it is, that the whole team is hopeless Defensively, we knew that. I don't know, man. I just. I would like to see a little more synergy between these three guys together. It just. It's not, it's not going to happen this year. It seems like it's not about this year and that's fine. And we'll see where LeBron plays next year.
[71:15]
B
Yeah, I mean, and I don't really want to put all of their struggles at the feet of Luka Doncic because I do think that just the roster is so poorly constructed around him and there are reasons for that that are out of a lot of people's control and it just kind of is what it is. But yeah, defensively, 28th in field goal percentage at the rim, 28th from the mid range. And some of that is bad luck and some of it is because they switch a lot and the people who are switching onto the ball aren't good and so the ball handler is able to create a good shot for himself. And they're 27th on non corner threes. Give up a ton of corner threes. Terrible in transition, turn the ball over a bunch. So yeah, I just, I don't think it's a very good team. Negative net rating, their wind differential has them winning 38 games or something like that. 39 games this season. So their record is what their record is. They're just not a very good basketball team. I'd say they're an average basketball team with a very bad defense. And Luka on offense really makes a lot of this passable. And he masks up a lot of the issues. So shout out to him. This is not meant to. I don't really want to criticize him a ton.
[72:39]
A
He's still shooting like 80% at the rim and 63% on mid range shots. It's absolutely insane how efficient he is as a scorer. The rest of it has left me a little bit wanting. And it's not about like he's a first team all NBA candidate. He's an MVP candidate. It like none of this is different. It just doesn't feel right. And a lot of it is the roster like Ayton hasn't been good enough. The center rotation hasn't been good enough. They're way too reliant on Marcus Smart. Jake Laravia is miscast. Is like, I guess he's guarding Kawhi and like the best guy on the other team now sometimes, like that's not a thing. Rui Hachimura has kind of been a little bit more of an afterthought than you'd want him to be and is now not starting and I don't think that's going to help his confidence. It's just a little bit of a mess. And a mess that reminds you like this was never supposed to be their team. They they lucked in to a transformative trade that upended one team midstream and made them another sort of team without much time to build that team. And their attempts to get a center that they really wanted haven't worked and there was a rescinded trade for Mark Williams and all of that and sort of Ayton as a placeholder and he's been okay in a very deandre Ayton ish way anyway. And the Suns, I don't even want to spend too I want to do a separate thing on the Suns sometime because they're one of the feel good stories of the season, but they're just so injured now that we need to see them at full strength. Let's take a quick break because there's a couple other of issues around the league that I want to get your take on that I feel like are not being talked about enough. So we'll do that when we get back. This episode is brought to you by Lincoln Whether you're watching highlights while parked or heading out for a Drive, the 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid keeps you connected with smart tech that helps tie your on screen and off screen worlds together. So help turn every drive into an opportunity for discovery with a 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid. Learn more at lincoln.com available connectivity features and functionality vary by model. Package pricing, trials and term lengths vary by model. Video streaming and games are only available while parked. This episode of the Zach Low show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless. Just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers. Whether it's online or in person, State Farm's your teammate. But when you need help making your next play, State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. This message is brought to you by Apple Card It's a great time to apply for an Apple Card. You'll love earning unlimited daily cash on every purchase. That includes 3% daily cash when you buy the latest iPhone, AirPods and Apple Watch at Apple through this special referral offer. When you get a new Apple Card, you can earn bonus daily cash. To qualify, you must apply at Apple Co Guest Net Daily Cash Apple card issue at Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch offer may not be available elsewhere Terms limitations apply I think it's worth talking about Michael Pina that in the background, in an NBA backwater that nobody really pays attention to, that is as ever, decimated by injuries, that is living the painful reality of an inexplicable trade that robbed them of their first round pick in a year where they're going to be in contention for the worst record in the league. Thank God for the Kings, baby. Zion Williamson has not missed a game since December 14th. I just feel like that needs to be noted. He does not come up at all in all Star conversations, all NBA conversations, really, any conversations at all anymore. And that's partly because the Pelicans stink and everyone is obsessed with this trade that they made for Derrick Queen. It's partly because I think the main curiosity about the team are the young guys. Even though Fiers Jeremiah Fierce is no longer starting, it's Fiers and Queen with a dash of Trey Murphy III who's been injured lately, and Sadiq Bay's Dunala Sadiq Bay things. You know, Zion has been consistently available for as long as he's been consistently available in a very long time. He's played 30. He's played 42 games this season, that is, and I'm not kidding, the third most games he's ever played in an NBA season already and the second most he's played since 2021 in any season. He's averaging 22 points a game. He's shooting 59% on twos, which is basically all he shoots now, which is on par with Peak Zion. And yet he just never ever comes up. So I want to take 10 minutes and do State of Zion Williamson. Is he still Zion Williamson? Why is nobody talking about him? Why is his scoring and usage down a little bit? He's averaging 22 points a game. That's down from like 25, 26, 26 at his peak. Three and a half assists. That's down from like five at his peak. And I said this when I had Mahoney on a couple weeks ago when we did our most confusing teams, I picked the Pelicans. I'm not confused. They're bad. I'm confused about other things. And one of the things I'm confused about is it seems like they're stuck between identities. An old identity centered around Zion and a new identity centered around Queen and less so fierce. And Zion is one of Zion as consistently productive Star is One of the casualties of that dissonance built into their team is, you know, his pick and rolls are down. His post ups are at a career low number according to the tracking data. His ball screen numbers as his pick and roll play as a screener is down. And all of that is because they're like we have this new identity with Queen and the high post and running our offense through him and then Sadiq Bay isos thrown in. And on those possessions, Zion is just not a particularly useful player. He's like standing 18ft from the rim along the baseline, not a spacer, not really guarded, a somewhat of a threat to get offensive rebounds and cut in for baskets. But it's just not the way he plays. He's a. I don't know, it just feels like something's off and it's making me think. It doesn't feel like something's off. Something's off and it's making me think that we're going to get to the end of the season and we're going to get Zion trade rumors pretty fast and I just have already started thinking about like what team should trade for Zion because it feels like New Orleans is halfway to moving on to a new way of playing basketball that doesn't necessarily have a place for him.
[79:10]
B
Yeah, I thought that was really well said. The New Orleans Pelicans have passed him by. I think that's what I see when I watch them. They are -4.5 net rating when he's on the court. The offense is below league average. The defense is atrocious to what you were just saying. Zion's true usage rate has dropped 15.1 percentage points this season, which is the biggest year over year reduction in the entire league. He's averaging the fewest points per game of his career. He's never averaged fewer shots at the rim per 100 possessions. It's at 15 right now and it was 19.2 in 2021. The spacing around him is terrible and yet like his True shooting is 6% above league average, as high as it's been in years. His free throw rate is a career high. He's fouled on a higher percentage of his shots than any player in the league.
[80:08]
A
He's second in the entire NBA among, among. Let me see how many it is. It's among 206 players have run at least 100 pick and rolls this season. As the ball handler, he is second in the percentage of time he draws. He's actually tied for first. I'm looking at now tied for first in percentage of those plays in which he as the ball handler draws a shooting foul, 14% of the time. About first out of 206 guys. And if I gave you 40 million guesses, I guess if I gave you however many players are in the NBA to guess who he's tied with for first again, you have had to run a hundred pick and roll. So, like, it's not some dude who's come up. It's not Ty Jerome who's come off the bench and barely played. You'll never get it. It's not even worth it. It's Gigi Jackson Jr. Anyway. But yeah, like, he's still. But I wanted to just throw that setting because it, it the power and the ability to get fouled at the basket and get to the basket is like very much still there.
[81:09]
B
Yeah, no, totally. And I still think that at the same time, he reads the game really well. His last game they played, he basically was like the point guard because they played DeAndre Jordan and Derek Queen and him in the starting lineup.
[81:24]
A
We'll get to that. I think that's actually instructive. I think that's like, not, not just a. I mean, I think that's probably a one game fluke, but I, I think it. I think that actually gets it. Something that the Pelicans are thinking about as a franchise.
[81:39]
B
Yeah. And so, like, he will force things sometimes. He'll put his head down, he'll try to find the crack in the wall. But like, by and large, when defenses load up to stop him, he'll still get off the ball. He'll still create advantages for other players that can capitalize. And unfortunately, his teammates aren't really able to do that in a lot of circumstances. You know, defensively, it's a whole different conversation. Just, it kind of is what it is. And his defense is such a mixed bag, mostly bad. And one of the things that really intrigues me when I think about, okay, what is he in a winning context because he's never played in the playoffs. Just. It's mysterious.
[82:21]
A
He was so. He was so close, man, so close. We won't remember. What a performance. But that whole season, what Was that? The 2024 season? It was the 2024 season when he got hurt in the playing the Lakers, when he had reached a rare plane of existence as an NBA superstar in a high leverage, like, must win kind of game where nobody could stop him. He just was like, just give me the ball. No one on this floor can do anything with me. And that whole season had crescendo to that moment like that had a landmark that season down the stretch. Had a landmark game in it. And I'll never forget. It's one of those random regular season games. Stick in your head. But they played the Clippers and he demanded to guard Kawhi and guarded him well in that game. And I was like, maybe things are really changing for Zion. And to your point, his defense is a complete disaster this season. He is an atrociously bad defensive rebounder as Bill has nitpicked over and over again incorrectly. So he doesn't move his feet well. His effort waxes and wanes and mostly wanes and he and Queen together is a completely untenable defensive front court. The Pelicans know that obviously it's why they started DeAndre Jordan in this game to see what it looks like when we have something resembling a rim protector. Because Zion needs a rim protector and Queen needs a rim protector and they both need it from the position at which the other plays. And so there's just. I do wonder. Dejounte Murray's about to come back. That introduces another ingredient. I do wonder if they will ever try to separate them in some way. It's a little awkward because like I don't think they want to start Zion at the three like they did in that game. I could see a world in which all right Queen, you kind of have hit the rookie wall a little bit. Your production has been a little bit of a slide. We're going to try to bring you off the bench for the next 10 games and start Eves and BC and just sort of see what that looks like. I don't know. But Zion's defense has just never recovered to that moment of his NBA career.
[84:18]
B
Yeah, I will say to what you were just talking about with kind of splitting him up with Derek Queen In 657 minutes of Zion, no Queen. The Pelicans net rating is 2.1 and their offense and their defense are slightly above league average. Just I just something to to note because I just you kind of look at him and you just, you know, the overarching question which you hit at the top is like why isn't he in all star conversations? Why isn't he in an all NBA conversations and what can he be in a winning situation and what is his related to that? What is his value to other teams? And there's so much baked into that beyond just how good or how good of a basketball player is what his shortcomings are. There's you know, the availability issue, of course, but he's just really fascinating in that I still think his ceiling is like borderline unstoppable. And I would love to see him in a situation that kind of accentuated a little bit more, put the ball in his hands a little bit more. I don't know where that is. I don't know what it is, what it'll look like in what organization. But I feel like, as I said at the top, his time with the Pelicans just feel like it feels like it has run its course despite him having two more years on his contract. They're not guaranteed, but two more years on his contract. I just, I when you said that the trade rumors are probably going to kick up after the season, I couldn't agree with you more as I was kind of watching the film and, and looking at his numbers and kind of seeing the New Orleans Pelicans like cap situation and the fact that they're basically rolling everybody back on this year's team to next season. It makes absolutely no sense to do that. So there has to be some, some shift here and I feel like he is the most likely player to, to be on the move for obvious reasons.
[86:14]
A
Now, they also control their pick next season, which they infamously do not this season. Now, next season's draft is not supposed to be anywhere near this season's draft, but you know, it's nice to control your own pick if you're going to contemplate a decision like trading your, I guess, best veteran player. I mean, I don't know if Trey Murphy has taken that mantle from him yet, but it's now close enough to be somewhat of a discussion. All right, so let's like to your to the point on Zion sort of being not lost in the shuffle, but different. Just here's the tracking data on genius sports second spectrum stuff. Post ups per 100 possessions, 2.9 per 100 possessions. In his peak years that was 6, 7, 8. Pick and rolls as the ball handler he is at 13.7 per hundred possessions. Peak years that was 20. Interestingly, on those, on those plays, if you really parse the data, he is I mentioned that how often he's drawing fouls. His his rate of taking shots like the percentage of pick and rolls in which he shoots as the ball handler is at a career high by a decent amount. His rate of passing and generating assists as the ball handler is at a career low by a decent amount. And I think that's what has also stuck out to me is he walked into the league as a good and fairly selfless passer. I don't think he's really advanced as a passer and in fact this season he's playing with not quite tunnel vision, but something like more just I'm here to score and not here to distribute the ball than he used to. By the way, I call it when I sort by ball handler, field goal attempt per pick and roll, I call that the Dylan Brooks list because Dylan Brooks is always number one or number two with a bullet and he is number one this year. When that dude runs a pick and roll, it is going up for better or worse. Get healthy soon. Dylan Brooks, his ISO. Zion's ISOs are more or less at his career average down from his peak. And interestingly, as the screener in a pick and roll, his numbers are also down in terms of the frequency being used as a screener. And that's one area where it doesn't ever. It doesn't really seem like he's ever been super interested in being a role like hit me in the pocket and I'll make the next pass kind of player. That doesn't really seem like he's something he's been super interested in doing to the point about his passing kind of stagnating and so it just feels like it's kind of stagnated. The other thing about point Zion, which has been this sort of thing we all are obsessed with and when his pick and rolls are at his highest, he looks like point Zion. It is very taxing on him physically. And that's something that I think that the Pelicans have been cognizant of is it's just hard work for a guy who's been injured a lot.
[89:04]
B
Yeah. If they could track like percentage of minutes in a defensive stance, I think he would probably rank worst in the league by a fair margin for sure. That's just. It's kind of funny when you watch him uncertain possessions. But yeah, no, I thought your point about his injury history lining up with the fact that he's being used less makes a lot of sense and I didn't even put two and two together. The fact that his true usage is the lowest it has been and has dropped significantly may have something to do with the fact that he's able to play in all these games and play in all these back to backs as well.
[89:48]
A
Yeah, I have no intel. I've done heard no rumors of Zion trade calls. I've done no reporting on it. I've not asked anybody about it. My gut just says Like, I'm not going to be surprised if he gets traded this summer. Especially with the Pelicans controlling their own pick and his weird contract structure that like starts off non guaranteed or partially guaranteed every year. All right, last thing. I gave you a homework assignment. I want to make the bad teams feel better. I said pick one thing on a tanking team. Could be anything. Could be uniforms, could be a player, could be a tactic, could be anything. One nice thing to say about one of the tank brigade. I have mine. But I'm gonna let you go first.
[90:29]
B
I'm going with Nolan Trore, rookie for the Brooklyn Nets.
[90:35]
A
You're staying home in your home borough of Brooklyn, New York.
[90:38]
B
Gotta rep your hook. 19 years old, 19th pick in the draft. I didn't think that he would be in the league this year, to be honest with you. Based on, I mean, he's. He might be the lightest, as in least heavy, thinnest player in the entire NBA. And it's like a serious issue when you watch him defensively, it's just plastic bag in the paint. So I thought he would spend most of his time in the, in the G League, but he started the last 11 games over that stretch. He's eighth in the entire NBA in total drives. He's getting into the paint, which is what the Brooklyn Nets really stress to everyone on their team, but in particular their rookies. They want them to get into the paint. They want them to spray out to the three point line. When Nolan is doing that, when he gets into the paint on a drive, 30% of the time, it's a kick out that creates a three pointer, which is one of the highest marks in the league. So he has been.
[91:42]
A
He's definitely fast.
[91:43]
B
He's fast. He's not afraid to get knocked down, which happens a lot. Turnover rate is really high, not efficient, all that sort of stuff. Of course the team is very bad right now, but I think just he's really kind of surprised me every time I watch them play. In terms of his poise with the ball, running a team, being a point guard, it's. It's been fun for them. So shout out to Nolan.
[92:17]
A
It's been fun for them. Very similar to when Joe Johnson said, it's not that bad here. And I said the Nets should just make that their slogan for, for the 20, 25, 26 nets. It's been kind of fun. It has not been kind of fun. And. But Traore has been all right. Joman has been better than advertised. His shooting is legit. I Like him, Wolf is an adventure in a, in a good way. You know, Powell does some stuff, obviously a good defender and Saraf has not played very much. So Shout out to the Nets. Interesting offseason, interesting off season coming up. Notable to me that Michael Porter Jr. Is still on the team. I don't mind the decision to keep Michael Porter Jr. Anyway. Mine was Jairus Walker for the Tanky Pacers. Jairus Walker, in 13 games since January 21st, 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists a game, 47% shooting, 38% on threes. Now his two point shooting for the season is a train wreck. He's up to 36% on threes and he's had some really high assist games lately. That made me go back and was like, I want to watch all these guys passes. He's got some flashy assists, like I'm talking one handed touch passes with either hand in traffic and the kind of assists that you want him to be making when the team is at full strength, when Halliburton's back and Zubots is back. And by that I mean he has placed, he's, he's become pretty, pretty sly attacking closeouts and then making the next play. And he's got good touch with both hands. He have these like pump and go and like really soft lefty lob pass to Jay Huff for a dunk and he's doing a jet. And it's the kind of pass you can see, it's the kind of connective passing you could see him making when they blitz a Halliburton, Zubot's pick and roll. And instead of hitting Zubots on the roll, because that's covered, Halliburton looks for an outlet, you know, above the three point line and shorts it and hits Jairus Walker and it's his job to make the next play. These are the kind of connective passes I'm talking about. Drive into a gap and like make the next right read. And he's also just got some straight up like flashy pick and roll passes because he's getting a little more responsibility. He had one, it was top of the key pick and roll with Huff. He drove right, the defense dropped and the pocket pass to Huff was not there if he made it with his right hand because he'd had to go through all the arms that were in the passing lane. So instead he went behind the back and made it with his left hand and hit J. Huff in the lane for like a floater or dunk. I was like, God damn, Jairus Walker. But if he can shoot threes at a decent clip, 36% for the season after an ice cold start and he can make passes like this and he can play defense. Remember this is a guy they drafted in the top 10 and traded up I think to draft. Was it? Did they trade up or trade one spot down? I can never remember that. That particular trade I think it was with Washington and like exactly the kind of complimentary player they need when they're full health and in a season when Ben Shepard has not really made any progress. Obi Toppin's been hurt the whole season. Johnny Furfee was starting to make progress and then towards acl. Like the Pacers really could have used this season to see a young player step into the kind of role that carries over into next season when the real team is back and it looked like are they just not going to get that at all? I think they're starting to get it with Jairus Walker. So that's my tanky nice thing.
[95:51]
B
Michael Pina, based on absolutely nothing coming out of the draft that year, he was my favorite player. I don't watch college basketball. I like that he played for Houston and Houston defended from what I read and saw a tiny bit in the NCAA tournament. So he was my favorite. So it's good to see you highlight him and make me feel good about an opinion I had several years ago.
[96:15]
A
Yeah, it was a Jairus Walker, Bilal Koulibaly swap where the Pacers I think actually moved down and got two second round picks for moving down, if I'm remembering it right. Anyway, that's my nice thing. Michael Pino, what do we got on the ringer this week out of you?
[96:31]
B
I think I'm doing something on the Cleveland Cavaliers and as I said earlier, I think that their ceiling is very high and I might say that they should be the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. We'll see.
[96:48]
A
Just going to end the podcast by disrespecting the Detroit business. Just like that. Look, if it goes to, if any series goes to Game seven, at least they have James Harden on their team. Michael Pina theringer.com must read everything he writes. Thank you for your time, buddy.
[97:03]
B
Thank you, Zach.
[97:06]
A
All right, that's it for today's edition of the Zach Low Show. We'll be back on Thursday per usual. Thanks to Michael Pina for his time and insight. Thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan as always on production. Thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe Show. We will see you later this week 21 are over and president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky, Oman gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chattinconenetic or is it mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland? Hope is here. Visit G gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050. For 24. 7 supportive Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867. Monster Energy Everybody knows White Monster Zero Ultra, that's the OG. It kicked off this whole zero sugar energy drink thing, but Ultra is a whole lineup now. You've got Strawberry Dreams, Blue Hawaiian Sunrise, and Vice Guava. And they all bring the Monster Energy punch. So if you've been living in the White can, branch out. Ultra's got a flavor for every vibe, and every single one is Zero Sugar. Tap the banner to learn more.
[98:31]
B
Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts
[98:41]
A
in time for this class.
[98:42]
B
I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw
[98:50]
A
the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste.
[98:55]
B
Visit 1-800-contacts.com today to save on your first order. 1-800-contacts.

Summary9 min read

The Zach Lowe Show (The Ringer)

Episode: Spurs Withstand the Pistons Physicality and Sorting Through the Middle of the West
Date: February 24, 2026
Host: Zach Lowe
Guest: Michael Pina

Episode Overview

Zach Lowe and guest Michael Pina break down a highly physical, high-stakes Spurs vs. Pistons game—a matchup billed as a potential NBA Finals preview. They discuss what the game revealed about each team's title caliber, examine the broader debate around playoff experience and contender legitimacy, and then shift to the chaotic middle of the Western Conference, analyzing the cases for (and against) the Rockets, Nuggets, Lakers, Wolves, and Suns. Later, they take an introspective look at Zion Williamson’s puzzling status in New Orleans before ending with "one nice thing" about a tanking NBA team.

1. Spurs vs. Pistons: High-Intensity, High-Profile Showdown

[00:00–20:30]

Main Discussion Points

Why This Game Mattered: With limited games on the calendar, all eyes were on this matchup. Both teams, largely viewed as young and "inexperienced," are leading their respective conferences.
Game Recap:
- Spurs win 114–103 in Detroit.
- The game is marked by physical play, with Detroit targeting Victor Wembanyama, attempting to rattle him.
- Wembanyama responds with "one of his most dominant defensive performances this season," finishing with 21 points, 17 rebounds (8 offensive), 4 assists, and 6 blocks.
- Pistons struggle with offense: 7-of-36 from 3, awkward lineup shuffling, and Cade Cunningham inefficient on 5-of-26 shooting (but 10 assists).
Physicality as a Narrative:
- "They came in with a game plan. We're going to beat the shit out of him and we're going to see how he responds...my favorite thing about him is… he gets mad…but his version of snapping is, I'm going to make a couple threes and I'm going to block everything." – Zach Lowe [14:27]

Key Insights

Spurs Prove Their Toughness:
- Wembanyama's ability to "absorb physical punishment and not fold" is a key sign of playoff readiness.
- Stefan Castle shines with 16 points, 11 assists, and tight defense.
Pistons’ Concerns Exposed:
- Their biggest red flag is perimeter shooting and offensive creation behind Cade Cunningham.
- "This was like a perfect distillation of what...one might be worried about the Pistons." – Zach Lowe [03:32]
- Pina draws parallels to the 2022 Memphis Grizzlies: “Elite ball handling, defense, toughness, rebounding, but no outside shooting.” [06:13]
- Pistons’ defense and effort still legit, but limited spacing could be fatal against elite playoff defenses.

Notable Quotes

“He responds every time…May not like the physical play…But he always brings it back to you and his defense travels every game.” — Zach Lowe on Wembanyama [03:32]
“I don’t buy into the ‘too inexperienced’ narrative… Both these teams are contenders.” — Michael Pina [06:13]

2. Playoff Experience: Does It Matter for Contenders?

[20:30–34:25]

Historical Perspective

Zach combs through recent NBA history: Very few title teams have succeeded with so little shared playoff experience. Exceptions (“microwave” superteams or sudden breakthroughs) are rare.
- Closest analogs: 2020 Heat, 2021 Suns, 2002/03 Nets, 2025 Pacers.
- Spurs: “No real postseason experience.” Pistons: “Basically one playoff loss.”
Yet both believe these teams can survive — and possibly thrive — despite their inexperience, particularly with transcendent talents like Wembanyama.
- “To me, the Spurs...are not far off from those archetypes [like] the 2020 Heat, 2021 Suns.” – Zach Lowe [28:25]

Playoff Experience: Pressure vs. Fatigue

Not as worried about pressure or stage fright for young stars, more concerned about “the grind physically and mentally to get through four playoff rounds.”
In the East, the Pistons’ path seems more plausible given conference weakness. Spurs have a harder road in a stronger West.

Quotables

“Victor Wembanyama’s unprecedentedness kind of eclipses the downside of youth and inexperience.” — Michael Pina [30:32]
“I think both of these teams can make the Finals. I think the Spurs can flat out win the championship.” — Zach Lowe [29:55]

3. Sorting Through the Western Morass: Seeds 3 to 7

[34:25–72:39]

Standings and Trends

All teams in a “chaotic .500 zone” over the last month or two.
Key Teams & Recent Records:
- Rockets: 19–15 last 34 games.
- Nuggets: 16–16 last 32 games. Offense: Top 5, Defense: 22nd in NBA.
- Lakers: 15–15 last 30. Offense and defense both mediocre.
- Wolves: 10–10 last 20, but recent playoff pedigree.
- Suns: 10–10 last 20 plus major injury woes (Dylan Brooks out with broken hand).

Finals Contender Power Rankings

Key Soundbites

Nuggets: Defense a Crisis?
- “Their defense, even beyond the guys who are absent right now, is just a f***ing mess… For a team that started the season with a top-10 defense, they look like they’re in total disarray.” — Zach Lowe [40:15–45:05]
- “I still think they’re definitely a championship contender. Their offense is just otherworldly.” — Michael Pina [45:05]
Timberwolves: Still for Real?
- “Their defense with Gobert on the floor is going to be borderline elite, no matter what… But I just have a ton of faith in Ant [Edwards].” — Zach Lowe [54:12]
- “Some of the losses just stick in my head that are so mind-melting... I’d be very, very surprised if they came out of the West.” — Michael Pina [52:06]
Rockets/Lakers: Chalk Them Off
- Rockets: Offense “elementary when it matters most,” plagued by injuries (notably VanVleet and Steven Adams), lacking a true half-court creator.
  - “Just doesn’t seem like it’s their year.” — Zach Lowe [59:30]
  - “Their offense is so elementary when it matters the most. Maybe next year.” — Michael Pina [59:58]
- Lakers: Moments of synergy among Reeves, Doncic, and LeBron, but far too many disappearances, especially on defense and against serious competition.
  - “No faith that this team can win multiple playoff rounds... Negative net rating, just not a very good basketball team.” — Zach Lowe [66:01–72:39]
  - “Totally out on the Lakers, have no chance.” — Michael Pina [66:01]
  - On Luka’s defensive “memes”: “It’s got to be so annoying to play with him.” — Michael Pina [66:49]
  - On Luka’s offense: “Something’s just not sat right with me this year... It doesn’t feel as unsolvable as Dallas-Luka.” — Zach Lowe [68:26]

4. Spotlight: Zion Williamson and Puzzling Pelicans

[73:00–89:47]

Context: Zion has played 42 games so far—third most in any season for him—but is MIA from the national conversation, as are the Pelicans in general.
Declining Role/Usage:
- Scoring, usage, assists all down. “His true usage rate has dropped 15.1 percentage points this season, which is the biggest year-over-year reduction in the entire league.” — Michael Pina [79:09]
- Team moves away from Point Zion in favor of rookie Derrick Queen, muddling the Pels’ identity and reducing Zion’s screen/roll and post-up opportunities.
- “It feels like something’s off... and it’s making me think we’re going to get to the end of the season and we’re going to get Zion trade rumors pretty fast.” — Zach Lowe [77:00]
- Still uniquely efficient: “He’s fouled on a higher percentage of his shots than any player in the league.” — Michael Pina [80:07]
Defensive and Playmaking Questions:
- Defensive effort waning, poor rebounding, “complete disaster” as a partner with Queen in the frontcourt.
- Offensively, reads and playmaking seem to have stagnated.

5. Positivity Break: “One Nice Thing” About a Tanking Team

[89:47–96:15]

Michael Pina: Nolan Traore (Brooklyn Nets Rookie)
- 19-year-old point guard gets into the paint, “not afraid to get knocked down,” high on drives and kick-out creation.
- “He’s really surprised me every time I watch them play. His poise with the ball, running a team, being a point guard—it’s been fun.” — Michael Pina [91:43]
Zach Lowe: Jarace Walker (Tanking Pacers)
- Impressive growth over the last 13 games: passing, defense, increasing three-point shooting.
- “He’s got some flashy assists… the kind of connective passing you could see him making when they blitz a Halliburton pick and roll.” — Zach Lowe [92:16]
- Hopeful that Walker can be a long-term piece for Indiana.

Key Timestamps

| Time | Segment/Topic | |-----------|-------------------------------------------------------------------| | 00:00 | Episode and game setup, stakes for Spurs/Pistons | | 03:32 | Physicality, Wembanyama’s resilience, Pistons’ shooting woes | | 06:13 | Pina: Parallels to 2022 Grizzlies, Pistons’ problems | | 12:19 | Pistons’ offense, missed opportunities, roster limitations | | 14:27 | Spurs’ gravity, Castle’s breakout, Wembanyama block highlights | | 20:30 | Team passing, playoff experience debate, historical analogs | | 30:32 | Spurs/Pistons: Can they win with no playoff experience? | | 34:25 | Western Conference middle-tier chaos (3–7 seeds) | | 40:15 | Nuggets’ crisis, defensive struggles, Aaron Gordon X-factor | | 52:06 | Timberwolves’ up-and-down season, recent cold stretches | | 59:30 | Rockets’ crunch time offense, injury fallout, capped ceiling | | 66:01 | Lakers: Defensive issues, Luka’s “meme” defense, fit quandaries | | 73:00 | Zion Williamson: Usage, fit, trade speculation | | 89:47 | Tanking team “nice things”: Traore (Nets), Walker (Pacers) | | 96:15 | Wrap-up, Michael Pina’s teaser: Cavs as dark horse in the East |

Memorable Moments & Quotes

On Wembanyama in Adversity:
“He just gets up and gives it back and has six of the most spectacular blocks you will ever see… it was just absolutely preposterous… I rewound it and I was just laughing in my office by myself.” — Zach Lowe [14:27]
On Playoff Experience Debate:
“I’m not that worried [about their lack of experience] for a couple reasons.” — Zach Lowe [28:25]
“Victor Wembanyama’s unprecedentedness kind of eclipses the downside of youth.” — Michael Pina [30:32]
On Rockets' Playoff Prospects:
“I’m 100% out. Watching that Knicks game… that was the nail in the coffin for me.” — Michael Pina [59:30]
On Luka Doncic and the Lakers:
“Something is just not sat right with me this year… It doesn’t feel as unsolvable as Dallas-Luka.” — Zach Lowe [68:26]
On Zion & The Pelicans:
“It just feels like something’s off and it's making me think that we're going to get to the end of the season and get Zion trade rumors pretty fast.” — Zach Lowe [77:00]
“The New Orleans Pelicans have passed him by.” — Michael Pina [79:09]

Takeaways

The Spurs and Pistons may be outliers in NBA history, potentially contending with almost no playoff experience, thanks to transcendent star power and conference weakness.
The middle of the West is unsettled and uninspiring, aside from the top two or three teams; deep playoff runs appear unlikely for the Lakers, Rockets, and injury-hit Suns.
Zion Williamson’s future in New Orleans feels increasingly murky as the franchise reorients.
Glimmers of hope for tanking and rebuilding teams can be found—if you look hard enough.

For Full Game Nerds

This episode is packed with X’s and O’s: passing chains, defensive coverages, lineup nuances and historical deep dives, all with the classic Zach Lowe enthusiasm and precision. If you love learning how the NBA’s tectonic plates are shifting—both this season and for the years to come—you’ll find this a high-value listen or read.

Next episode: New pods drop weekly on Mondays and Thursdays.

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Transcript62 lines

[00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by Claude from Anthropic. Picture this. You're still hours into trying to make the perfect trade for your fantasy team, and somehow you're still trying to narrow down your list. Classic Claude gets that. It won't hand you a neat answer, but it works with you. Until you land on one that holds up their research mode. Scours the web so you don't have to in Anthropic. Just committed to not putting ads in Claude so your conversation stays yours. Try Claude for free at Claude AI Lo and see why problem solvers choose Claude as their thinking partner. Coming up on the Zach Lowe show, the Mets have no one who plays their normal position. Is that a problem? Just kidding. It's a busy week in the NBA. Spurs, Pistons lived up to the hype. What a physical game. And Victor Wembanyama was ready for all of it. Didn't love it. He fell over a lot. He was mad at the rest. But he never snaps. He always gives it right back to you with some timely threes, some defense and the spurs, in a statement win, go on the road and beat the Pistons by 11. Does this game say more about the Pistons or the Spurs? Michael Pina is here to help break down all the fun stuff that happened in that game and then have the larger discussion that is now hovering around the league of you know, both of these teams lack the traditionally requisite playoff experience to be true Blue contenders. Are we worried about that? Does that apply to these teams who, who should be more worried about that? Or is this season just different? Is the level of parody and in the NBA just different? That that sort of precedent no longer applies? We're going to talk about all that. And then three to seven in the west, kind of a mess. Houston, Denver, Lakers, Wolves, Suns. Now Suns beset with injuries with the Dylan Brooks broken hand all hovering around.500 in their last 20 to 35 games, depending on which team you look at. Not great. We're going to look at what's gone wrong with either of them. Who is the best bet to actually make a Finals run among those teams? What's going on and who's just crossed off? If any of those teams are totally crossed off, then Zion Williamson, remember him? He hasn't missed a game in like quite a while in two plus months. But something feels wrong. Something doesn't feel quite right with Zion. What's going on with Zion? What should other teams look for if they're looking at trading for him this summer? We're going to talk about that and then one nice thing about a tanking team. Each of us picked a nice tanking team. That's all coming up on the Zach Lowe show with Michael Pena. This episode of the Zach Lowe show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless, just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers. Whether it's online or in person. State Farm's your teammate when you need help making your next play. State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. Welcome to the Zach Lowe Show. It's Tuesday morning. A blizzard happened. A blizzard's over and there was a blizzard of Victor Wembanyama blocked shots last night in Detroit in a potential maybe finals preview. If you believe that inexperienced teams can make the finals with minimal to no playoff scars will get there. A very exciting, very physical Spurs, Pistons game. Michael Pina is here to discuss that and a lot more. How you doing, sir?
[03:30]
B
I'm doing great, Zach. How are you?
[03:33]
A
Oh, I'm good. I'm good. All right. Spurs, Pistons. Spurs win by 11. 114, 103. Creeping closer to not only the number one seed in the west, which is in play for them, but now there's a three way battle for the number one overall seed in the playoffs between the Thunder, the Spurs and the Pistons. The spurs now have a five game cushion on the three seed in the west. And we're going to talk later about how the teams in the three to seven spots have all been basically 500 teams for a long time now. So that looks like a cemented status for the Spurs. Minimum at number two. This was a much hyped game in part because there were only two other games on the schedule last night. One of them was a tank off and one of them was a half tankoff between the Jazz and the Rockets. So everyone was paying attention to this game. National TV Peacock lived up to the hype. Very physical. Just right off the bat they're bodying up Victor Wembanyama. Cade shoulder check. Three minutes into the game, I think picked up a foul and was in foul trouble. It did end up playing 35 minutes. Did this game say more to you about the spurs and their legitimacy as a title contender? If you believe they are a title contender and and specifically their toughness and Wembanyama just, he responds every time like he may not like the physical play. Jalen Duran would Adam very first play of the game. They called a cross screen for Jalen Duran to drive in to Eman. Got a layup. They're bodying him up, they're hitting him. He may not like that. Got worked on the boards a couple times by Duran, who's like a freaking Greek God in there. But he always responds, he always brings it back to you and his defense travels every game. And this was one of his most dominant defensive performance of this of the season. Or did it say more to you about this was like a perfect distillation of what, if anything, one might be worried about the Pistons who are running away with the East a bad offensive game. 7 of 36 from 3 couldn't seem to decide who to play, how much to play a Sar Thompson, how much they could get away with playing. Three non shooters at the same time. Went all offense toward the end of the game, as much shooting as they could put on the floor. Which meant no Thompson, no Holland, no Javante Green. Cade, 5 of 26 did have 10 assists. Five stocks sort of a nightmare offensive game for the Pistons and that's the concern everyone has. Do they have enough shooting? Do they have enough spacing? Do they have enough secondary creation around Cade? So does this game say more to you about the spurs or the Pistons?
[06:13]
B
I like both of these teams. I'll start there and I don't really buy into the neither team or both teams are too inexperienced to go to the Finals. I think they're both verifiable contenders. To answer your question, I think it's Detroit because my concern with Detroit or my lack of optimism is more couched in most of what you just talked about, which is their complete lack of three point shooting, their inability to space the floor in the playoffs. I think that, you know, obviously the floor is, you know, a floor feet become inches in terms of space for shooters. And they are so reliant on, you know, Duncan Robinson is critical to their team and we've seen in past seasons when he was on the Miami Heat him get played off the floor for his defense. So I think that the outside shooting that they have, the fact that when Cade goes to the bench, they really don't have anyone that they can lean on to generate good offense. Those have always been my concerns with Detroit. I love Detroit. I love their defense, their toughness. The team that they remind me of the most, Zach though is the 2022 Memphis Grizzlies where the recipe there was, you know, very inexperienced team, had just lost in the first round to the Utah Jazz in 2021. They win 56 games in 2022. And their recipe was basically elite ball handling, all star franchise player John Morant, plus defense, toughness, offensive rebounding, and we don't have any outside shooting. And they win a playoff series, disturbingly close one, against the Minnesota Timberwolves in round one, and then lose to the Golden State warriors in round two. And so that's the team that I kind of think about a lot when I think about these Detroit Pistons. So this game did distill a lot of the concerns that I have. And granted they went up against one of the most ridiculous defensive players of our lifetime, but I think that that those concerns will still hold in the Eastern Conference throughout those teams as well.
[08:19]
A
So here's the difference between these Pistons and those Grizzlies. Or some differences. Number one, they're in the east and the Grizzlies are in the West. Big help. Big help. And I can't wait. We haven't really talked about expansion much on this podcast because I'm waiting to see if and when it gets sort of officially greenlit. But the battle royale to move from west to east is going to be one of the great pieces of theater in recent NBA history. Number two in Moran. Those Grizzlies had at least one weak link defensively. And I don't think these Pistons really. I mean, they have Duncan Robinson, he's less at the point of attack automatically than John Morant was. And I think actually Duncan Robinson has had a pretty decent defensive season for the Pistons. Number three. Those Grizzlies kind of exposed his front runners in every playoff run and over the long run. Now they had injuries both in that, in that playoff run you're talking about. Moran had injuries, their big guys had injuries. And they had injuries the next year when they lost to the Lakers in the first round. I don't think the Pistons are front runners. I think the Pistons, like, there's no Piston that's going to hip check Victor Wembanyama and get into an altercation with LeBron James and then duck the media after the game every time. That's not happening. These Pistons legitimately want all the smoke. That said, I. Look, I think the offensive concerns are pretty real. They've been a top 10 offensive team for most of the year. And it looks like they had a crazy offensive rebounding game last night. 20 offensive rebounds, but on 66 misses, that's like an average offensive rebounding, right? You'll take that if you're the spurs, if the shooting is what it is. And you know, down the stretch, I just made note of their layups. They're trying to come back. They play Cunningham, Dennis Jenkins. One of the great stories of the season. Kara Slivert, Tobias Harris, Paul Reed. Cause Duran is in foul trouble. And then they put Duran in. So that's like as much shooting as this team can put on the floor. That's J.B. bickerstaff being like, you know, Asar Thompson, 18 minutes. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. Javante Green, 13 minutes, 05 from the field. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. Ron Holland, spark plug, just outworking everyone from the second he gets in the game. One of six on threes. I'm not sure we can play you when we're trying to come from behind. And then they went even smaller and they put Duncan Robinson in for Tobias Harris trying to max out on shooting. And you know, I think these are real issues that they can overcome with toughness, rebounding and defense. And they were in this game up until the end against a team that played pretty well. It. It doesn't change. One game is not going to change my opinion of the Pistons. This was a nightmare shooting game for them. I still think they can win the East. We can argue whether they should be favorites in the East. They're clearly going to be the number one seed. But I do think this is the reason why their ceiling to me tops out as finals team that probably wouldn't have a chance against anyone coming out of the west if that west team is healthy. I mean, maybe like a Minnesota snuck out of the West. You give the Pistons a chance because Cade is that good. Their defense is that good. But I think this is the. They could eat. They could make the finals because the east is what it is. But this is a real thing that they didn't really address. I mean, Kevin Herder has basically just not played. He's played just spot minutes. Did not play at all last night. And that was their big trade deadline acquisition. I suspect he will get a chance. And we should also mention beef stew, still suspended, has shot the three pretty well this year. That double big lineup has been pretty good for them. So, you know, just, they're going to have games like this and they're going to win some of them because they just outwork everybody. And, and you know, there's this, there's this thing about like, does effort and toughness, does it shrink as an Advantage in the playoffs when everyone is playing at full throttle. And I think that trope is a little overstated. Like, I think effort and toughness remains an advantage for the teams who really tap into it more than anybody else, even in the postseason. But it's an interesting thought. Yeah, I mean, it doesn't really change my opinion to the Pistons. I've been worried about their offense and they had a nightmare game.
[12:20]
B
Yeah, I mean, I think back to the recent win that they had over the New York Knicks without Jaylen Duran. And you know, in that game they were pretty creative in the way that they were using Cade Cunningham offensively, not like out of the norm with how they do, but less pick and roll, more off ball stuff. You know, pick the picker actions to try to get cat uncomfortable and out of the paint. And I was kind of waiting for more stuff like that to happen in this game and it just kind of never really materialized. They did a little bit of it, but it just didn't really work. And to your point, like once, you know, near the end of the first half, once like you put Wemby on Asar Thompson, it was really difficult. He played three minutes in the second half. It was really difficult to kind of play him going forward after that. And I just think that they needed to kind of diversify their offense a little bit. Like the K Durin pick and roll, like going at Wemby. And Wemby is able. He did this so many times in, in last night's game where he's just guarding two people at the same time and he does that all the time. But to do it against that pick and roll tandem, which I think is probably the second best two man combo in the NBA, forcing Cade into really tough shots, taking away the lobs. He, I mean, he was so destructive and I would love to just chat more about him and why like again, one game doesn't really change my opinion. I was already very bullish about the spurs, but watching him in a game that the spurs clearly wanted to win, he played his Victor Webanyama played his most minutes in that game since November 14th against the Golden State Warriors. They were so pumped in the fourth quarter when they were kind of extending their lead. They clearly wanted it. They clearly responded to the physicality on the road. Fearless Stefan Cassel, just absolute monster. So yeah, I just, I shout out to the Pistons. Very good team. Could easily make the finals. I don't want to hate on them at all. I just, I also just love the San Antonio spurs and what they showed last night.
[14:27]
A
Well, Castle had a great game, 16 and 11. I mean, I guess a good game, 7 of 16. And he really benefited from the gravity Wembanyama has on offense as a roller and a lob threat because he. And then Fox later in the game. Fox was 4 of 17, I think, in the game. And I still kind of liked the way that he played. I like he. He deserves a lot of credit for Castle has it rolling and Fox would be like, I'll just be in the corner over here if you need me to do a dribble handoff or shoot a corner three. And then at the end of the game, if you need me to do some Fox stuff, I'll be ready to do it. But you could see like, Duran was just staying attached to Wembanyama on the pick and roll. And like, when I say staying attached, I mean, not even helping at all, not even moving off him. And Castle would just drive into the lane and he's too big and too explosive to let him do that. And he would finish at the basket. But, yeah, WEMBY 2117, four assists, six blocks. Eight of his 17 rebounds were offensive rebounds, tipping everything. And the Pistons came in with a game plan. We're going to beat the shit out of him and we're going to see how he responds. And just. It's my favorite thing about him is he just. Every time he's not going to, he. He gets mad. And you could see him get mad. You can see his facial expressions. You can see him kind of flail around on the ground when he gets knocked over and he doesn't get a call, but he doesn't snap, or at least he hasn't snapped yet. Or his version of snapping is, I'm going to make a couple threes and I'm going to block everything. And he had. I mean, I'm not exaggerating. One of the craziest block shots I've ever seen was on a Cade Duran empty side pick and roll in the second half, a play they ran three or four times in a row. And he played the cat and mouse game where he kind of stabbed at Cade to make him think and pause, and then went back to Duran and he did this weird thing where he crouched really low to the ground, so low, bending at the knees that I thought, did he get hit in the stomach or something? Like, what is he doing? Is this a trick? And then Cade went up to take a shot, sensing, I guess he's bending over or touching his toes or something, and he Sprung up like a goddamn superhero and pinned it on the glass at the top of the, at the top of the box. And I was like, I don't. I rewound it. And I was just laughing in my office by myself because it was just absolutely preposterous. And then this is another thing. They ran that same play again and Kate hit a pocket pass to Duran and during dunked on Wemby's face for an and one. And then they ran it again and Wemby was like, I'm here for all of it. And he blocked Kate into oblivion on the next one. I loved it. But to your point, on his defense, when Duran was in the game, he guarded Duran. When Paul Reed was in the game, they messed around and put him on a Sar Thompson or Ron Holland and just said rove. And not only in the two man game was he able to guard two people. When in Cade's two man game there were a number of possessions where late in the shot clock disperse just straight up doubled Cade Cunningham or beyond the three point arc and just said, we're going to trust Victor to guard everybody at once. If you throw this thing in the paint to Ron Hollander, Asar Thompson and Asar got him for a layup, Ron Holland missed a floater. But it was just like you have too many non shooters on the floor. Like if you play Holland plus Thompson or Holland plus Green plus a center, we're just letting Victor guard everybody because we don't think those guys can beat us. And their calculation was, was mostly right. It was an. It was an awesome game. Any other final notes before we get into the big picture here?
[17:49]
B
No. I mean you hit it. A lot of it. I think that Stefan Castle's performance, you know, the way he bothered Cade full court got under his skin. You know, you mentioned earlier the hip check Kate had early on Wemby, that was a foul. Another foul that he picked up that was kind of foolish was when he shoved Castle to the ground.
[18:09]
A
And you know, downside, downsides of being the Pistons, like Now he played 35 minutes, right? But it wasn't distributed the way that you'd ideally want the 35 minutes to be distributed. And like downside of being the Pistons. Isaiah Stewart suspended. Cade picks up two dumb fouls. Like you gotta, it's what makes you who you are. But when the stakes get high, and they're not high yet, but when the stakes get high, you gotta be a little bit more calculated with it, 100%.
[18:35]
B
And just. I think Castle's defense Was great. Full court on Cade. I think that his playmaking, you know, he had a few turnovers here and there, but 11 assists. His play in the pick and roll was pretty excellent at times. I mean he started the game with a skip pass to Devon Vassell. And we should say one of the reasons that the spurs won this game was that they went 11 for 18 from the corners. That was a huge factor. Devin Vassell I think was their leading scorer. 7 for 11 from 3. As many threes as the Detroit Pistons team Champagne has been awesome this entire season for them. Just a critical player like their shooting was on point. But Castle, he had like that no look lob to to Luke Cornett that completely faked out Caris Levert. A couple of his assists were because the Pistons closed out hard on him behind the three point line and let him get downhill and he sprayed it out to corner three point shooters on those plays as well. So I think that like the defensive discipline there a little bit by Detroit was a little bit off. And in the playoffs that's what I'm really looking forward to seeing Stefan Castle against defenses that won't do that. And I think he's obviously found ways to mitigate the his inability to shoot one of them. You hit it earlier with the fact that de' Aaron Fox is totally fine like hanging out off ball which lets step on Castle be on ball and kind of does, you know, that doesn't mitigates the issues that he has off ball as a shooter, but he'll crash the offensive glass. He does all that stuff. But I just think he had a really impressive two way game and has become just Austin Rivers called him a star on the broadcast last night. He's just been so awesome and was so fearless in that game and so I just wanted to shout him out.
[20:31]
A
Yeah, a couple of things that you jotted my memory about number one, both of these teams and I was at that Knicks Pistons game last week and this really stood out in that game. The Pistons play with a togetherness and a pace in the half court that helps compensate for their shooting issues. They make quick decisions, they cut hard, they pass fast, they're good. Like all of their role players are pretty heady passers. Like even Ron Holland is a decent like connector passer. Javante Green is unselfish. They play an unselfish fast style where the ball and bodies are moving and that sort of makes up for their lack of shooting. And the spurs have really improved as a passing team. Castle's a good passer a very good passer already. Fox, we know Wemby's a good passer. Vassell threw. I mean, Vassell, I think only had. He had four assists last night. He threw some passes in that game where, like, they were doing this thing where he would set a back screen for Wembanyama and to start a lot of possessions, which, like, holy shit, is that a threatening action? Because if you don't help on Wembanyama, he's dunking. If you help too much, Visell can curl around and hit a three and they'll reverse it and have, like, Wembanyama set a backstreet for Bissell, too. And he, on one of those came off. No, it was actually a Visel Wembanyama pick and pop where he drove. Vassell drove to his right. Wembanyama popped. He saw the third defender stunting at Wembanyama and ad libbed and hit that guy. That guy's man cutting to the rim. I think it was Castle. Castle swung it to Fox for a corner three. I'm like, man, that was a good pass by Devin Vasilo. So both of them are good passers. And to your point on Castle, this is the playoffs, and how the playoffs are going to be different. I go back to a game the Grizzlies, back when the Grizzlies are a real team, played against the Spurs a couple of months ago, and I believe Edie may have actually been healthy for that game. It may have been a rare Triple J Ed game. They were like, all right, Harrison Barnes, at that point, you're. You're hitting so many threes that we're. We're not going to do the thing where we hide our center on you and guard Wemby with the wing. And now the spurs have since taken Harrison Barnes out of the starting five and put Champagne in to make that even harder. But what the Grizzlies did was, you know what we're going to do? We're going to put Jaren Jackson Jr. On Stefan Castle, and we're going to go under every screen and dare you to shoot. And you're probably going to make some shots, but we're going to mess with your head a little bit. We're going to take your offense out of rhythm. And you also just may have a cold shooting game. And by the way, if you try to beat us to the spot, like when we go under screens, you're trying to beat a former defensive player of the year who can block a ton of shots. And it threw the spurs off in that game. And I do think both they and the Pistons are going to see more kinds of these gimmicky defenses in the playoffs to sort of leverage whatever shooting issues they have. So let's go there right now because in the lead up to this game, and Bill and I talked about this a little on Sunday, we're now entering the stretch run. And so there's going to be a lot of talk about who's a real contender and who's not. And there's no question that these two teams, if you go by NBA history, do not have the requisite postseason experience that a typical championship team has. And I went back and I looked at every finals team since 2000, so like loosely, the post Jordan era to see like is playoff experience. And let's be clear, the spurs largely have none other than a couple of role players on other teams who have now imported to the spurs. No postseason experience at all. The Pistons have basically one postseason loss to the Knicks last year. Have not won a playoff series together. That's about as minimal as it gets for teams that legitimately think they can make the Finals. So champions is one thing. I went back and I looked at all the Finals teams and I got to tell you, it's actually hard to find a team that made the Finals with this little postseason experience. That said, I'm not that worried for a couple of reasons, but here are the teams that sort of like, if you're looking for analogs, teams that suddenly popped into the Finals and were not like microwave free agency teams. So I'm not counting the 2008 Celtics, the Ray Allen KG team, the first LeBron Heat team, and the first LeBron Cavs team. Those are sort of the microwave veterans. Like all these guys have been here before, super team kind of things. The closest analogs are the 2020 heat, who had guys who had made the playoffs before with the Heat, like young Bam Goran Dragic, but like with a previous iteration of the Heat and then were bad and then suddenly we're in the bubble finals. That was Jimmy Butler's first year with the Heat. The closest one is probably the 2021 Suns who lost in the finals to the Bucks, who went from like nothing to 80 in the bubble but didn't make the playoffs to oh my God, they're in the Finals. That was Chris Paul's first year with the Suns. You can go all the way Back to the 2002 and 2003 Nets, who went from 26 wins to back to Back finals. That's the Jason Kidd trade. So every time we're introducing a major superstar level player into these teams, I actually think, just as a thought exercise, last season's Pacers are kind of interesting because they had one prior year together of playoff experience where they made the conference finals in Pascal Siakam's first like half season with the team. They traded for Siakam and they got the Bucks who were injury riddled, and they got the Knicks who were injury riddled and they beat both of them. And then they were overmatched against the Celtics in a pretty competitive slash short series. So one playoff loss and you can find a couple other teams that had like one year of playoff experience. Like the first LeBron team that made the finals had one year of playoff experience with LeBron. They lost in the second round in 2006. And so you look at all of that together and you're like, boy, there's really no analog for a Spurs team with no playoff experience to make the finals or a Pistons team with one playoff loss to make the finals. I actually, I, I'm not. I think both of these teams can make the Finals. I think the spurs could flat out win the championship. And here's why. To me, the spurs, despite the no experience thing, are, are not far from the archetype of the 2020 Heat, 2021 Suns, 2025 Pacers, who again had a year of playoff experience. Because to me, healthy Wembanyama plus Fox is sort of like the equivalent of just adding a superstar player to your team, like in, in a, in a more traditional way that those teams did. I am a little worried that they have literally zero playoff experience and they're in the west and they, they have this sort of like, I guess Harrison Barnes is just coming off the bench now and Champagne is starting and who's, you know, they're relying on a rookie as their seventh or eighth man in Dylan Harper and another rookie in their 10th man and Carter Bryant, who played four minutes last night. I'm a little worried about that, but I just think Wembanyama is so good. And the teams below them are scuffling in the standings and the team above them in Oklahoma City, who I would pick to be clear to beat the spurs in a playoff series. But the spurs clearly brings something to the table that gives Oklahoma City a little bit of trouble. The Pistons, you know, they have the one year of playoff experience. It was a loss, but it was a tough physical, like, this is what it's like loss. They didn't really wilt under. Nothing scared them about the playoffs. They were a little skittish with turnovers earlier in that next series and they calmed down a little bit. They clearly are like, we want just we'll fight everybody. We're game for anything. Nothing scares us. They're in the east and you know, they are a little different in that they don't have like a major talent import that's happened to them. That would, would sort of in NBA history suggest that's the kind of thing that vaults a team from no playoff series wins to the Finals. But you know, like I there's also a chicken egg thing going on where like, yes, anytime you make the playoffs, your most likely outcome is to lose somewhere in the playoffs because the playoffs are really hard. So of course it's going to be hard to find a team that just gets into the playoffs for the first time and wins. I wouldn't pick either of these teams to win the title. I think the spurs can win the title. I'm not sure the Pistons can, but the experience factor doesn't bother me quite as much as it normally would. All of that said, I think when we talk about playoff experience, we talk about pressure and all these like testy moments. Like, you know, last year, Denver, Oklahoma City. Oklahoma City's down 2:1 in Denver facing a crisis moment. Their offense isn't really working. Denver's in his own. They're not making shots and they need these role players like Kayson, Wallace and Isaiah Joe to step up and make these monster threes under huge pressure. Did it help them that they had been in the playoffs the year before? Probably it did. But there's, there's some of that. Like I don't really worry about Wembanyama and Vesel and Castle. Like those guys seem up for it. I'm more worried about like it's just such a grind physically and mentally to get through four playoff rounds that you be that the wear down factor is real. The level of exhaustion once you start playing every other game is real. So I'm a little worried about it. But it's not a disqualifier for either team. For me making the Finals despite what NBA history says. And it's not even a disqualifier for me for the spurs to win the title. I think the spurs can flat out win the title. I'm not going to pick them. I'm not going to pick them to win the west if the Thunder are healthy. But that's sort of where I stand and I Look through it, it really is hard to find a perfect analog that would say, oh yeah, these guys can look back to this team that made the finals with no experience, but there's, there's enough closeness that I'm not disqualifying either one.
[30:33]
B
I totally agree about the Spurs. I think they can definitely win the championship. And I would say that Victor Wembanyama's unprecedentedness kind of eclipses the downside of youth and inexperience. I just think his defense is so overwhelming. If you told me that he will be healthy throughout the entire run and he'll be able to play 36 to 38 minutes a game, then like good luck to whoever has to play the San Antonio spurs because he completely alters basketball games. He, his defense defined that game against the Detroit Pistons. And by the way, only one mid range jumper for him, which, you know, I like his mid range game but sometimes he falls too in love with it. And so that I thought, you know what I like?
[31:20]
A
You know what I like? When Stefan Castle just throws the ball at the rim and he jumps from like the dotted line or he barely jumped. And by the way, Castle, Castle is an incredible lob passer and this area 51 chemistry is a real thing in that specific sense. Like he's a better lob passer than Foxes. To Wembanyama. He's, he's a. They have incre. He has just an incredible feel for when and where to throw lobs to Wemby.
[31:46]
B
Yeah, so I, that's a huge part of it. Um, I, you know, they aren't invisible, invincible I should say. Um, but like I love their, their defensive numbers and what they're good at. Like they rebound, they don't foul, they protect the rim. I think all that stuff will carry again. A lot of it is on Victor's ability to play and stay upright and you know, bring the same intensity and late in games with all of the beat, I mean he's going to take such a pounding. That's going to be a part of the game plan that every team that faces him is going to have. But I also think like if the spurs like a huge part of this is the path and matchups and matchups are so central to success in the playoffs these days. And if they get the one seed, there's a good chance that they. Not definite, but a good chance that they will be able to avoid a path that has them playing both the Denver Nuggets and the Oklahoma City Thunder. I think that is critical and that's why I think that getting the one seed is so important and wins like that really matter. And then on the other side of it, Detroit, what I'll just say about Detroit is like, I look across the Eastern Conference and you said it before when I compared them to the Memphis Grizzlies, like who in the Eastern Conference is standing up and puffing their chest out and really declaring themselves as the team to beat? And there's a lot of variables. There's Jason Tatum. Have no idea what he's going to look like, have no idea how he's going to integrate. All that stuff is totally unknown. And you have the Cleveland Cavaliers. I think that's the other team that I would probably put in this conversation. Also the Knicks too. But I'd say like Cleveland Cavaliers are this team that is really interesting and just how they've played so far. And obviously they have basically no experience of playing Harden and Mobley and Mitchell together. That's been very, extremely small sample size so far with that. But that's a team I think has a high ceiling and can be really interesting in the playoffs. But yeah, that's a factor. Just like the weakness and the questions in the Eastern Conference are probably why I would be more optimistic about the Detroit Pistons than I would in a normal season.
[34:07]
A
Well, and the experience thing is, is so interesting. The Pistons do have that one series of experience was an important proving ground for them. I mean, they lost, but they went toe to toe with the Knicks. Really scared. The Knicks scared Knicks fans. Like, the Knicks fans were like, in my life were like, oh my God, this team is kind of terrifying physically.
[34:22]
B
Very close series. Very, very close series.
[34:25]
A
The Celtics, I think, you know, they've won a title and they have a ton of guys on that team who are on the championship team. They just have a professionalism to them that I think that experience is a huge benefit to them. They know what it like. They play like a championship team day in and day out, just in terms of their effort, their habits, their professionalism. The Tatum thing is a question, but he's also been there, done that. I guess the Knicks experience is a plus. Even though it seems to end with two years ago, it was massive, just wave of injuries against the Pacers. Last year it was heartbreak against the Pacers, but I guess it's a feather in their cap that they've gotten to the conference finals. You know who hasn't in this iteration, the Cavaliers in is their experience. Is it good that they have experience choking in the playoffs and getting out worked in the playoffs and getting out muscled in the playoffs and getting out injured, I guess, in the playoffs. Is that good? Is it good? That is James Harden's playoff experience, like a good thing for them? I don't know. Like, it can cut both ways. I think the Pistons can make the Finals. I picked the Knicks to make the Finals before the season. I don't know, man. We'll see how the east unfolds. I definitely think the spurs have the ability to win the title, but will be underdogs in my book, to the Thunder, assuming the Thunder are fully healthy. And they might be underdogs to the Denver Nuggets, too. Although the Nuggets, like everybody below the spurs in the west, is scuffling. And we're going to take a quick break and then we're going to talk about the next five teams in the Western Conference. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra, the official beer of the NBA. Part of why we all love watching the game is the superior talent on the court. Spurs, Pistons. Wembanyama getting knocked all over the floor. Cade's hip checking them. Paul Reed's elbowing him. Jalen Dern's going right at him. And he just gets up and gives it back and has six of the most spectacular blocks you will ever see a player have, including one of the best I've ever seen on Cade Cunningham at the rim, leading the spurs to a statement win on the road. That's why we watch the NBA, to see guys like that do things like that. But superior plays aren't just for the NBA. Try Michelob Ultra, a superior light beer with only 95 calories. Even better, with Michelob Ultra, you could win courtside seats. Ooh, and more. Michelob Ultra. Superior is worth playing for. Enter now at michelobultro.com courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open U.S. residents 21 or over. Begins on October 1, 2025, and ends on June 30, 2026. Multiple entry period. See official rules@myclobeultro.com courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details. Okay, the spurs, with that win, 41 and 16, they are five games ahead in the loss column of the number three seed in the West. Three to seven in the West. Sort of a mishmash chaos. Just a weird zone right now of teams with huge hopes. And like, these aren't just like, oh, second round, we'll be happy. These are teams that had big, big ambitions coming into the season. Or at Least their fan bases in Los Angeles did. Okay, here's where we are. The Rockets 35 and 21. They are 19 and 15 in their last 34 games with an average offense and an average defense. And an offense that seems to turn into mush in every single close game, including one of the ugliest fall from a head losses you will ever see a team with a superstar like Kevin Durant have at Madison Square Garden against the knicks on Saturday. So 19 and 15 in their last 34. At least they're over.500 in that stretch that I cherry picked. The Nuggets 3622 with the second hardest remaining schedule in the entire Western Conference. Although a lot of home games in hand for them. 16 and 16 in their last 32 games. My math says that's.500 over a pretty significant span of the season. Jokic was out, but they were over.500 in that stretch. They are 4 and 6 since Jokic came back. In those 32 games they are fourth in offense. This is just an unbelievable offensive team. It almost doesn't even matter as long as Jokic is playing. Who else is available, how many turnovers that they have, what they shoot from three. If they shoot 23s or 53s, they're an unbelievable offensive team. 25th in defense in those 32 games. 22nd in defense for the season. Oh, the Lakers 34 and 22 tied in the lost column with Denver, fifth in the West. They are 15 and 15 in their last 30 games. Another.500 stretch. 11th in offense for the season. That's a red flag. 24th on defense. That's a more predictable red flag. 15 and 15 in their last 30. The Minnesota Timberwolves 35 and 23 clinging tenaciously to six in the West. Hard schedule remaining, Lots of road games in it. They've played four more home than road. They are also 10 and 10 in their last 20 games and they are for the season ninth in defense, 10th in offense. So they're like very much grasping to top 10 on both ends of the floor, but we're kind of 10th. It's not that exciting. And then Phoenix also 10 and 10 in their last 20 games. Now two games behind Minnesota for the sixth seed, the all important sixth seed. They are 18th in offense for the season, eighth in defense. And over that 20 game stretch where they are 10 and 10, they have the fifth worst offense in the NBA and are dead last in shots at the rim. Let's start with this power rank. These teams on the spot. Michael Pina in Terms of Finals chances, chances to reach the Finals power rank these five teams, I'm going to snap, do it too. And we'll see how close we are. I'm going to predict we have the exact same ranking. One to five. You go first.
[40:16]
B
A lot of pressure. Okay. Denver Nuggets number one. Minnesota Timberwolves number two. Here's where it gets disgusting. Lakers three, I guess. Lakers three, Rockets four. And then was the 15. The Suns.
[40:41]
A
Yeah, the Suns. Just pencil the Suns in at five. With Dylan Brooks having broken his hand and Booker's dealing with some injuries, Jalen Green's being reintegrated. I think the Suns are headed for the play in which is a completely awesome outcome for them. But I absolutely, given their health situation and they announced yesterday or there was reported, I can't remember which. The Dylan Brooks is going to be out four to six weeks. That's more or less the rest of the regular season. You know, with maybe a few games at the end. Hard to see them climbing up to 6. My power rankings for finals chances would be 1. Denver 2. Minnesota 3. Houston 4. Lakers 5. Grizzlies. I'm out on the Lakers and I have it like no one's been in on the Lakers for a while as like this team can actually make the Finals. They just look so bad on bad nights and we'll get to them. Let's just like bounce through these teams in order that we just did it. Denver defense not good enough. Christian Brown's back a little rusty, I think. Aaron Gordon and Peyton Watson. So both their core power forwards are out. They're playing small as a result. A ton with four guards on the floor at once. And even if Watson were playing, he would help in terms of his length and his shop blocking, his rim protection and versatility. He doesn't play with the same force of Aaron Gordon. And I'm tired of saying that Aaron Gordon's legs are the biggest X factor in the entire NBA season because I don't think the Nuggets can win the title title without him at something like 80 to 100% because he just brings like, oh, we're playing Kawhi. Who's guarding Kawhi on our team? Like, Peyton Watson's not strong enough. He'll give it a go. Christian Brown, Cam Johnson, like, it's like, I guess we should mention Cam Johnson among their core quote power forwards. He's. He's also back not playing, by the way. Cam Johnson is just not. He's shooting okay from three, but he just, he just doesn't feel like as much of a presence and a threat as as he needs to be for this team. But without Aaron, Gordon's like, just, oh, I can exploit little guys by just sealing deep in transition and mashing you under the basket and drawing fouls and guarding and guarding guys like Kawhi, I just don't see it for them. But their defense, even beyond the guys who are absent right now, is just a fucking mess. Like, it's just a mess of communication mistakes. You know, I said this with Bill on Sunday. They reacted to Al Horford pick and pops and Quentin Post pick and pops like they had never seen a big man screen and pop out for a three before. Like they just didn't even know what to do. Wait, am I supposed to veer over there? But who's rotating behind me? They've had so many breakdowns of communication in transition where they are a train wreck. And in the half court where someone will post up against them and it'll be like a bad matchup so somebody will come to help and then that guy's man will just cut to the rim and nobody will guard him and he'll just catch a pass and dunk and everyone on Denver will be like, wait, but I thought you were supposed to help him. And it's for a team that started the season with the top 10 defense that we all knew was playing a little bit above its head, but was so connected and not making mistakes and, and making the right rotations behind the rotation, behind the rotation, they look like they're in total disarray. And I can't tell if it's rotation has been kind of in chaos because of injuries, guys in and out of the lineup, resulting rust for guys who are returning. If it's just they're missing too much good defensive personnel between Gordon and Watson or, or maybe it's all three of these things. It's just like wake us up in the playoffs where the Denver Nuggets, we won a title three years ago, which is like, you know, we won one title and we've been there before. I'm guessing it's a little bit of three, which makes me optimistic, but it's also a lot of one and two and the way they're playing right. And they've also like, I think this maybe is the downside of David Adelman being pretty experimental defensively with zones and hybrids between man and zone. Like, there's just a little bit of confusion that I'm assuming will lift in the playoffs. But even if it does lift if Aaron Gordon's not Aaron Gordon, I really just would have a hard time picking this team over Oklahoma City.
[45:06]
B
So I, I, I agree with a lot of what you said. I personally just never wary about The Denver Nuggets 22nd defense. Definitely not ideal, not what you want. When they won the title, they were 15th in the league going into the playoffs and I think a lot of people were not writing them off, but that was seen as their defense is just not good enough to win an NBA championship. That was the big question. And so to be 22nd right now, not great to me, like they still have the best offense in the NBA. An offense that is just otherworldly when the best player in the world is on the court. And like, yeah, it just, it's not to be reductive, but I think health is a huge factor here. And you know, there's, they play these pretty small groups right now because of Gordon's absence and Peyton Watson's absence. And like, you know, if Gordon is not available, they probably can't get to the finals unless another team that they're playing is snake bitten as well. So that's just kind of what it is. And so I think in the playoffs this team has a lot of experience. I think that top to bottom, the roster is better than the one that won the NBA championship a few years ago. And I, you know, I like their depth, I like their outside shooting more. So yeah, I'm just not, I'm not too concerned with the Nuggets. I still think they're definitely a championship contender. I still think no one wants to play them in a seven game series. And I would hope that some of the, like, the less forgivable defensive issues are correctable when you know you're at full strength and you're more focused on each possession because it's the postseason. I guess we'll see. But I don't really worry about the Denver Nuggets.
[47:02]
A
I'm a little worried about the defense because it's reached a critical point of like, you just can't be this bad no matter how great Jokic is and how great your offense is. The competition in the west is too good. Like Christian Brown's point of attack defense, their point of attack defense, top to bottom has not been good enough. They're getting blown by on the perimeter a lot and like Christian Brown's just not a stopper in that sense. But I assume some of that is also just like he's coming back from an ankle injury that compromised his mobility a bit. He's definitely looked more explosive and engaged offensively lately. Tim Hardaway Jr. Is a minus defender. They're just playing a lot of small guys who are eh defenders now. Jokic's turnovers are way up. That's part of the reason why they're 4 and 6 since Jokic came back. And they're a team that is not built to turn the basketball over because their transition defense is not great. Jokic is not the fastest guy and they don't force any turnovers on defense. I think they're last in the league enforcing turnovers on defense. So if that equation flips too far to their disadvantage, it's not good. So I'm a little worried. But you know, they will definitely play better as guys get healthier and as the stakes get higher. I'd also just like no more sitting Jokic and Murray at the same time. Like. And I think they know that. I think it's something they do in the regular season. It's cost them in a bunch of games lately. That's an easy thing to clean up. It has nothing to do with their defense. It's an easy thing to clean up. And yeah, offensively they're just unassailable because of Jokic. I do want to take this opportunity though, and I said this at the time when the trade happened, I thought Michael Porter Jr. Was like wildly disrespected in the narrative about that trade. Everybody viewed that trade as just like not even setting aside the cap implications and how it freed them to get balance units and whatever they did afterwards. Even in a vacuum. The consensus was great trade. Michael Porter Jr. Is a knucklehead. He can't play any defense. He's got health issues. He played the playoffs with one arm. He's got these back issues that are lingering. Cam Johnson is plug and play. And I was like, I like Cam Johnson fine. He's a very good shooter. And I just, I just think people did not give enough respect to this dude is 610 and is an A plus plus 3 point shooter and what a boon that is for any team. With Jokic, his rebounding was A plus. Yeah, he's a minus defender. When did Cam Johnson become fucking Scottie Pippen that we're talking about him like this? And also Cam Johnson doesn't play very much and Cam Johnson has been okay this season. Michael Porter Jr. Is in a slump now. Part of the reason is in his slump. He's playing with 9,000 rookies on a Brooklyn team that doesn't want to win. I just, like, I think this trade has been a net loss for the Nuggets so far. Even. Well, I mean, they got Valentunas. He's been big for them. So I guess I have to walk that back a little bit. But I think they miss Michael Porter Jr. And it's not just Aaron Gordon being an X factor. If Cam Johnson doesn't give them a little more on offense, a little more oomph, a little more threat, a little more on ball, this was like he was supposed to be the guy who keeps the offense moving by attacking closeouts and running secondary pick and rolls. And you see like glimpses of that. Like, I don't know. I thought at the time people were talking about Michael Porter Jr. Like he was a bum. Like he was just an appendage that the Nuggets carried to the title. He was an important part of their team and I think that has. Now their offense is. Is top two anyway, so it doesn't matter. But anyway, I don't know. I just need more from Cam Johnson. Okay. Our second in the power rankings. Both of us had Minnesota despite the fact that they are sixth. I don't know, man. They've been my sleeper title contender all year. There was a point where they were top six on both ends of the floor, and I was pretty happy. Now they're top 10, 9th and 10th. Defense has slipped to 14th overall in their last 20 games. Not a crisis. They're giving up more shots at the rim. Teams are shooting well from three. That's probably luck. They will get more consistent in the playoffs. This is a team with a track record of playoff success two straight conference finals. It's not a fluke. They're a good team. They haven't sustained a high level of play for long enough yet this season. And I'm starting to worry that this sort of scattershot nature of their play. Oh, they played down to their competition and everyone assumes that will not be a problem when there is no down competition in the playoffs. I would just like to see like these last 25 games, IO's in. He's a huge part of their bench now. He's played pretty well since they've got. They got him. He's a perfect player for their team. Randle's been for. We really up and down for the last six weeks. I need to have my. My faith is like 15% chipped away at and I need to have that 15% one back in these last 25 games for me to look at this team and say, yeah, they can win three playoff series in the West. They need to show me a level of consistency that I have not seen in a while now.
[52:07]
B
I haven't been as optimistic about the Minnesota Timberls as you have. I, I like what I've seen from IO Desumu. So that's, I think that that has been, you know, I want to see a little bit more from him, but his just, you know, way more than a spot up shooter. He's attacking in transition. He'll bring the ball up the floor occasionally. He'll come off a screen in the corner and run a little second side pick and roll. He'll attack closeouts, keep his dribble alive in the paint, make something happen. He doesn't panic. So I think just the upgrade of having that on your team as opposed to just being so overly reliant on Bones Highland, you know, playing those two together, you're a little bit more dynamic when Ann is on the bench and just obviously, you know, not having the. To also rely on, you know, Mike Conley or Rob Dillingham. So I think that just the element of his impact, his size as well has been good and bodes well for the future and I think he'll show up in a playoff series and really be a plus otherwise like this is such a high variance team throughout the regular season and I do agree with you that things will stabilize hopefully in the playoffs and they'll be able to kind of lock in and focus and be the team that has gone to back to back Western Conference finals. But man, like some of the losses that they have really just stick in my head that are just so like mind melting. And I know that they didn't have Rudy Gobert or Nas Reed in that game against the Sixers. So I want to cross it off. But just like getting blown out like they did just like I don't know. So yeah, I don't, I don't, I don't. I would be very, very, very surprised if they came out of the west because I have a lot of respect for the teams above them. But I also just, man, some of the losses, I just, I just, I don't know what to say. So the Minnesota Timberwolves, everyone.
[54:12]
A
Yeah, I'm getting a little tired of post game press conferences where they're like, yeah, we just weren't focused tonight and we just got to be focused next time. And yeah, you know, I've got to be, you know, I wasn't paying attention off the ball on defense. I got to focus this time. And Rudy Called them out a couple of weeks ago for just basically not playing hard or just like, you know, they had a lot. I can't remember who it was. It was a game I watched. I think it was against the Clippers maybe, where they just decided like, collectively, just every single player on the team, just without speaking about it. Just, it just happened. And the Lakers have games like this too, where it just happens to their offense. Like, we're just not going to play with any flow. We're not going to play our system stuff. We're just going to kind of go through the paces and walk around and just like you ISO then I ISO and they get to the end of the game and they lose. They're like, yeah, we can't play that way. It's not the way we play. We didn't have our flow today. It's like, all right, okay. I mean, can you just bring that like 70 of the 82 games of the year? Because you're going to need it in every single playoff game. I still, I just have. The track record of playoff success is real. Their defense with Gobert on the floor is going to be borderline elite no matter what. And I just have a ton of faith in Ant. I just think he's a killer. He's. He. You cannot really stop him. He can score from anywhere, in any manner. And I think his decision making as their sort of de facto point guard has been good. He's a little overburdened in that role. But their offense with him on the floor is unbelievable. Their starting fives offense, offensive numbers is unbelievable. So I don't really think it's a detriment. I just need to see a little more consistently consistency. I would rank them though, fourth now in the West. If we're talking like, can they make the finals power rankings now that could also be fourth in the can they win the championship power rankings. If we're talking east versus West. So someone in the east has to make the finals and someone will deserve it. There are good teams there. Let's do the Lakers and Rockets together. I am, I have. I crossed the Lakers off as a finals team a long time ago. I think they could win a playoff series. Two, it seems like unlikely, but you know, those, the talent of those three offensive players is undeniable. And the Rockets, it just feels like the offense is a little broken and they are 20th, 22nd in crunch time offense and 29th in turnover rate in crunch time. It just feels like there isn't enough juice offensively and there isn't enough creativity. They don't shoot a lot of threes. We know that. It's just too much of their offense. And again Fred Van Vliet injury hovering over all of this. Something that I thought was undersold as an impact on a championship team because there was so much like, well we could see Reed Shepard and Amen Thompson and yeah, those guys have advanced in their games. It turns out you kind of need a player like Fred Van Vliet. At least one did. Email Doka is going to trust late in games because when Reed shepherd is not out there late in games and we saw this against the Knicks, it's kind of just like Sengun do something Durant do something and it's just really tough sledding for them. Teams are going to hide their weakest defender on Tari Eason the next that's where the the Knicks put Jalen Brunson and they Houston through Tar Eason into some two man stuff in that game and said we're going to, you know, use him as a screener, even use him as a ball handle. And it worked now and then, but it's not something they're going to go too late. Shingoon's jumper, I think an under an underplayed storyline of the season is his jumper just has kind of fallen off the face of the earth. Remember he like shot threes out of the gate. He was like oh my God, is he going to be a high volume good three point shooter? No. And teams guard him as such and there just isn't enough stuff going on offensively or enough depth of offensive talent for me to trust them. That said, and I said to the Bill on Sunday, every crunch time loss like the one against the Knicks, I'm just sitting there watching being like dude, will you put Reed shepherd in the game? I'm not like a Reed shepherd is some kind of savior offensively. What he is is a quick twitch ball handler who can pull up from three and run a fast paced pick and roll that just gets shit moving offensively in a way that no one else on the team is really going to do. And I think in those minutes where they're stalled out, where they're melting down, where they're committing every variety of turnover imaginable and he's rotting on the bench because IME Odoka doesn't trust his defense with some justification, he's undersized, he's going to be hunted. Yeah, he makes plays with his hands, he's active, he's smart. But like There are certain physical realities that are not going away. I just feel like the trade offs of what he's going to do to the offense outweigh the weaknesses on defense and you just need to bring him in the game to loosen things up. But it just doesn't feel, this feels like a. It's not their year year for the Rockets, which it's easy to kind of excuse that as well. Van Vliet injury, sort of. If he doesn't come back, that's sort of just a gap in the roster and they save their ammo for trades for the off season. And that's all well and fine, except Kevin Durant is 37 years old or whatever and playing the most minutes on the team. I don't know, man. Doesn't seem like it's their year. You have any faith left, you're out. You told me you're there. You're just totally out.
[59:31]
B
I'm 100% out. Watching that Knicks game, I was, I was. That was it. That was the nail in the coffin for me. I agree about Reed. I think he can help. I, I don't think that he is the Magic skeleton key to save their season or save their woeful crunch time offense. I just, I think that the combination of Fred VanVleet and then also Steven Adams, who was just so critical.
[59:58]
A
Thank you.
[60:00]
B
And not having him just takes away so much of their identity and just what they were about and you know, the second chance opportunities obviously that he helped create. I think he was an underrated defender for them as well. So it just, it's too much to overcome. Like there's no shame in that. I thought that. But you know, their inactivity at the trade deadline spoke volumes. They obviously wanted to keep everything, all their assets for another run at it in the off season. And you make a great point about Kevin Durant's age and how there's risk there as well, but I just didn't. I don't think there was a move to be made that could have vaulted this team to, to winning the championship this season. I don't think that they are particularly close. I think their offense is just so elementary when it matters the most. And maybe next year with Fred and with hopefully Steven Adams is healthy, they can come back and Kevin Durant can stay healthy as well and everyone's a year older, a year more mature and they kind of, you know, give a hearty performance in the playoffs and don't embarrass themselves like that would be. That's something to look forward to. But this year I just, I'm totally out on the Houston Rockets in the
[61:19]
A
west even at full health, even with Stephen Adams giving you a 45% offensive rebounding rate when he's on the floor, which is what they had. Be tough and big is just not enough of an identity to win three playoff series in the West. And you just need more creativity on offense, more to your team DNA than just that. Now you can get like even now without Stephen Adams. They could absolutely win around in the west depending on who they draw because they are that tough, their defense is that good, they are that menacing on the glass. 2 depending on again matchups and health. Like it's hard for me to see them beating Denver, San Antonio or Oklahoma City or Minnesota in a second round series, whoever that is possible again, but it's hard for me to see. And the Adams thing, you know, the flip side of Adams being out is they now toy with smaller lineups with Jabari Smith Jr. At center or even like like they put Finney Smith at center. Finney Smith has given them nothing and has no confidence offensively right now and that needs to change. Those lineups, particularly with Jabari at center and not Reed shepherd on the floor, are interesting because they're so switchy defensively. Like legitimately 1 to 5, no weaknesses, no small guys, no slow guys, like a legit 1 to 5 switchy team. Not enough juice offensively though. And that's the sort of endless issue. And the Lakers, if you want to get just distill the Lakers experience in two games. The Clippers game over the weekend, which they won by three. The Clippers missed a buzzer, beat Batum. I think Mr. Buzzer beating three at the end of the game after LeBron threw an inbounds pass away. And then the Celtics game after that, complete opposite performances against the Clippers. Reeves, LeBron and Luca reunited in the starting five. By the way, that trio minus 10 per 100 possessions so far this season. Be that as it may, reunited in the starting five, they played with some real synergy and vigor among the three of them. And what I mean by that is like sets where Luca, I'm sorry, LeBron and Austin Reeves run a two man game that gets a mismatch. LeBron posts up, Luca relocates and attacks a closeout. When the help comes to him, LeBron and Austin Reaves run a two man game on one side of the floor. And the whole point of it is just to tilt the defense over there, swing to Luka, catapult into a Luka DeAndre Ayton pick and roll with the defense already scrambled, running Luka off flare screens so he catches the ball on the move like they were working to all the split actions that JJ Redick always talks about and loves where you enter the ball to LeBron and Luka and Reaves run a split screen or luka handles and LeBron and Reaves run a split screen and they hunt the littlest guy on the floor and things are moving around all of that against the Clippers full throttle. They score 125 points. They beat a team that's been the hottest team in the NBA for two months. Look like a really, like an offensive team that, yeah, the defense is not good, it's never going to be good. Don't have the personnel to be good, but we're dangerous. Then they play the Celtics. Biggest rivalry in the NBA. Landmark national TV game. The Celtics got the green uniforms on, everybody's watching. And the Lakers big three looks like. No interest in playing together, no interest in running anything. Collectively they score some pathetic amount of points. Luka plays Luca ball and it's not going great. Everyone's disengaged and they just get completely outworked and outclassed by a professionalized Celtics team who goes on the road and beats their ass. And it just leaves you in the end with no faith that this team can win multiple playoff rounds, no faith in their defense, and just the lingering feeling that everyone around the league has had for a year now that this Lakers team is about 20, 27 and beyond. And this is a fun, nice little placeholder that can win some games despite a negative point differential, despite the fact that the Luca, The Luca, Reeves, LeBron, it's not just that they're minus 10 per 100 possessions, minus something big for the season. They've only played I think 12 games together. Those three, their numbers as a team, when they're on the court, they are in the zero percentile, which I'm not even sure that's a thing. Like the lowest possible percentile in offensive rebounding rate. When those three play together, they're in the 8th percentile for all lineups of free throw rate. When those teams play together, they don't get to the rim at all. They don't shoot threes at all. They're entirely dependent on mid range jumpers. There's just no like no force, no oomph. It's just Luka playing Luca ball and he's amazing, but I just, it's, it's not, it's not happening
[66:01]
B
totally out on the Lakers have no chance. I man, that it's happened kind of all season. But it kind of hit me watching the them against the Celtics where Luka Doncic's defense, it's gotten to a point where, like, do you remember when Harden was like, you know, in the 17, 18, maybe 16 era, when very good player, incredible MVP candidate, ridiculous numbers, but like, once a week there would be a meme where he would just glitch out on defense and just be standing still and action would be happening around him.
[66:42]
A
Not only do I remember that it still happened. Just watch. Just watch a Cavs game and you'll get a meme. One meme.
[66:49]
B
Yeah, very fair. But that's happening with Luka quite a bit in a way. That is for someone who is so. The way he plays on offense, where you made a really interesting point recently with Bill about his shot selection and just kind of, I guess, like, correct me if I'm wrong, but kind of just like the volume he was shooting at and he was taking shots that maybe he wasn't in the past, as opposed to looking for the lob or looking for the skip. And obviously the surrounding personnel impacts that. But ever since you said that, I've been looking out for it. And for someone who will take like, a contested step back three with 17 on the shot clock and his team down like, 12 points in the third quarter, just like a shot that his team just, like, doesn't need for him then to turn around. And you know, there was one play where against the Celtics where he's supposed to be guarding him and Jake Laravia are. The ball's inbounded to Peyton Pritchard, and Jake Laravia is standing in front of Peyton Pritchard. He points at Jaylen Brown for Luka to go cover Jalen. Luka just stands still and he's basically like, waving Jake to go pick up Jalen. So Peyton Pritchard sees this, throws the ball to Jalen Brown. Jalen scores. Stuff like that is just. It's got to be so annoying to play with him, let alone just like some of the. Obviously we don't need to go into, like, the antics, but it's just like,
[68:22]
A
oh, no, let's go. Let's go into the antics.
[68:25]
B
Let's go into them.
[68:27]
A
The whining is back at just peak slash Nadir Dallas levels. It's every fucking play. Just play, man. Not everything is a foul. And it's almost like, are you playing to draw a foul or are you playing basketball like, which one are you doing? Are you playing one on one and like with the refs or are you playing a game? It's every single possession now. It's completely out of control. It's back to Dallas levels. It's just unwatchable and I hate it because he's a genius. He's a literal basketball genius who can get any shot and any pass he wants. And what you're talking about, what I've said is something is just not sat right with me this year and that there is, it just doesn't. The numbers are unbelievable and they'll always be unbelievable. It doesn't feel as unsolvable as Dallas, Luca. It doesn't. It feels like some of the predatory passes where he's, he's out, he's passing two steps ahead of the defense and he's, and you can tell he's enjoying passing two steps ahead of the defense. Like I am going to use my passing as a predatory weapon and not as a last resort, not as like, well, I guess I can't get a shot this time and I have every pass in the bag. Here's the over the head pass to the corner. Those passes just. He's not as manipulative from two steps ahead. He's not as selflessly manipulative as he was in Dallas. And some of that again is the personnel, they don't have the lob threats, they don't have the level of shooters, they don't have the kind of personnel that might motivate him to be selflessly manipulative. But he's, it just feels like he's hunting points now. And one of the differences between that Clippers game and that Celtics game, the two different games I mentioned is the Luka hero ball threes went in against the Clippers. And when they go in, it's like, you just like, wow, unbelievable. The guys just made five step back threes in my face. They didn't go in against the Celtics. And it just feels different. And none of this says that he's not a first team all NBA player, that he's not an MVP candidate. He's all those things. But something is different about the way he's playing with the Lakers versus when they made the finals in Dallas. And it's, it's hard to describe and hard to see, but it's there. And it's. Again, some of it is beyond Luka and it's roster construction. I just haven't enjoyed it. His defense is just what it is, that the whole team is hopeless Defensively, we knew that. I don't know, man. I just. I would like to see a little more synergy between these three guys together. It just. It's not, it's not going to happen this year. It seems like it's not about this year and that's fine. And we'll see where LeBron plays next year.
[71:15]
B
Yeah, I mean, and I don't really want to put all of their struggles at the feet of Luka Doncic because I do think that just the roster is so poorly constructed around him and there are reasons for that that are out of a lot of people's control and it just kind of is what it is. But yeah, defensively, 28th in field goal percentage at the rim, 28th from the mid range. And some of that is bad luck and some of it is because they switch a lot and the people who are switching onto the ball aren't good and so the ball handler is able to create a good shot for himself. And they're 27th on non corner threes. Give up a ton of corner threes. Terrible in transition, turn the ball over a bunch. So yeah, I just, I don't think it's a very good team. Negative net rating, their wind differential has them winning 38 games or something like that. 39 games this season. So their record is what their record is. They're just not a very good basketball team. I'd say they're an average basketball team with a very bad defense. And Luka on offense really makes a lot of this passable. And he masks up a lot of the issues. So shout out to him. This is not meant to. I don't really want to criticize him a ton.
[72:39]
A
He's still shooting like 80% at the rim and 63% on mid range shots. It's absolutely insane how efficient he is as a scorer. The rest of it has left me a little bit wanting. And it's not about like he's a first team all NBA candidate. He's an MVP candidate. It like none of this is different. It just doesn't feel right. And a lot of it is the roster like Ayton hasn't been good enough. The center rotation hasn't been good enough. They're way too reliant on Marcus Smart. Jake Laravia is miscast. Is like, I guess he's guarding Kawhi and like the best guy on the other team now sometimes, like that's not a thing. Rui Hachimura has kind of been a little bit more of an afterthought than you'd want him to be and is now not starting and I don't think that's going to help his confidence. It's just a little bit of a mess. And a mess that reminds you like this was never supposed to be their team. They they lucked in to a transformative trade that upended one team midstream and made them another sort of team without much time to build that team. And their attempts to get a center that they really wanted haven't worked and there was a rescinded trade for Mark Williams and all of that and sort of Ayton as a placeholder and he's been okay in a very deandre Ayton ish way anyway. And the Suns, I don't even want to spend too I want to do a separate thing on the Suns sometime because they're one of the feel good stories of the season, but they're just so injured now that we need to see them at full strength. Let's take a quick break because there's a couple other of issues around the league that I want to get your take on that I feel like are not being talked about enough. So we'll do that when we get back. This episode is brought to you by Lincoln Whether you're watching highlights while parked or heading out for a Drive, the 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid keeps you connected with smart tech that helps tie your on screen and off screen worlds together. So help turn every drive into an opportunity for discovery with a 2026 Lincoln Nautilus Hybrid. Learn more at lincoln.com available connectivity features and functionality vary by model. Package pricing, trials and term lengths vary by model. Video streaming and games are only available while parked. This episode of the Zach Low show is brought to you by State Farm. Life's better when you've got the right help. Think of that perfect pass that sets everything up. Smooth, effortless. Just what your team needed. That's the kind of assist State Farm offers. Whether it's online or in person, State Farm's your teammate. But when you need help making your next play, State Farm with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Availability and eligibility vary by state. This message is brought to you by Apple Card It's a great time to apply for an Apple Card. You'll love earning unlimited daily cash on every purchase. That includes 3% daily cash when you buy the latest iPhone, AirPods and Apple Watch at Apple through this special referral offer. When you get a new Apple Card, you can earn bonus daily cash. To qualify, you must apply at Apple Co Guest Net Daily Cash Apple card issue at Goldman Sachs Bank USA Salt Lake City Branch offer may not be available elsewhere Terms limitations apply I think it's worth talking about Michael Pina that in the background, in an NBA backwater that nobody really pays attention to, that is as ever, decimated by injuries, that is living the painful reality of an inexplicable trade that robbed them of their first round pick in a year where they're going to be in contention for the worst record in the league. Thank God for the Kings, baby. Zion Williamson has not missed a game since December 14th. I just feel like that needs to be noted. He does not come up at all in all Star conversations, all NBA conversations, really, any conversations at all anymore. And that's partly because the Pelicans stink and everyone is obsessed with this trade that they made for Derrick Queen. It's partly because I think the main curiosity about the team are the young guys. Even though Fiers Jeremiah Fierce is no longer starting, it's Fiers and Queen with a dash of Trey Murphy III who's been injured lately, and Sadiq Bay's Dunala Sadiq Bay things. You know, Zion has been consistently available for as long as he's been consistently available in a very long time. He's played 30. He's played 42 games this season, that is, and I'm not kidding, the third most games he's ever played in an NBA season already and the second most he's played since 2021 in any season. He's averaging 22 points a game. He's shooting 59% on twos, which is basically all he shoots now, which is on par with Peak Zion. And yet he just never ever comes up. So I want to take 10 minutes and do State of Zion Williamson. Is he still Zion Williamson? Why is nobody talking about him? Why is his scoring and usage down a little bit? He's averaging 22 points a game. That's down from like 25, 26, 26 at his peak. Three and a half assists. That's down from like five at his peak. And I said this when I had Mahoney on a couple weeks ago when we did our most confusing teams, I picked the Pelicans. I'm not confused. They're bad. I'm confused about other things. And one of the things I'm confused about is it seems like they're stuck between identities. An old identity centered around Zion and a new identity centered around Queen and less so fierce. And Zion is one of Zion as consistently productive Star is One of the casualties of that dissonance built into their team is, you know, his pick and rolls are down. His post ups are at a career low number according to the tracking data. His ball screen numbers as his pick and roll play as a screener is down. And all of that is because they're like we have this new identity with Queen and the high post and running our offense through him and then Sadiq Bay isos thrown in. And on those possessions, Zion is just not a particularly useful player. He's like standing 18ft from the rim along the baseline, not a spacer, not really guarded, a somewhat of a threat to get offensive rebounds and cut in for baskets. But it's just not the way he plays. He's a. I don't know, it just feels like something's off and it's making me think. It doesn't feel like something's off. Something's off and it's making me think that we're going to get to the end of the season and we're going to get Zion trade rumors pretty fast and I just have already started thinking about like what team should trade for Zion because it feels like New Orleans is halfway to moving on to a new way of playing basketball that doesn't necessarily have a place for him.
[79:10]
B
Yeah, I thought that was really well said. The New Orleans Pelicans have passed him by. I think that's what I see when I watch them. They are -4.5 net rating when he's on the court. The offense is below league average. The defense is atrocious to what you were just saying. Zion's true usage rate has dropped 15.1 percentage points this season, which is the biggest year over year reduction in the entire league. He's averaging the fewest points per game of his career. He's never averaged fewer shots at the rim per 100 possessions. It's at 15 right now and it was 19.2 in 2021. The spacing around him is terrible and yet like his True shooting is 6% above league average, as high as it's been in years. His free throw rate is a career high. He's fouled on a higher percentage of his shots than any player in the league.
[80:08]
A
He's second in the entire NBA among, among. Let me see how many it is. It's among 206 players have run at least 100 pick and rolls this season. As the ball handler, he is second in the percentage of time he draws. He's actually tied for first. I'm looking at now tied for first in percentage of those plays in which he as the ball handler draws a shooting foul, 14% of the time. About first out of 206 guys. And if I gave you 40 million guesses, I guess if I gave you however many players are in the NBA to guess who he's tied with for first again, you have had to run a hundred pick and roll. So, like, it's not some dude who's come up. It's not Ty Jerome who's come off the bench and barely played. You'll never get it. It's not even worth it. It's Gigi Jackson Jr. Anyway. But yeah, like, he's still. But I wanted to just throw that setting because it, it the power and the ability to get fouled at the basket and get to the basket is like very much still there.
[81:09]
B
Yeah, no, totally. And I still think that at the same time, he reads the game really well. His last game they played, he basically was like the point guard because they played DeAndre Jordan and Derek Queen and him in the starting lineup.
[81:24]
A
We'll get to that. I think that's actually instructive. I think that's like, not, not just a. I mean, I think that's probably a one game fluke, but I, I think it. I think that actually gets it. Something that the Pelicans are thinking about as a franchise.
[81:39]
B
Yeah. And so, like, he will force things sometimes. He'll put his head down, he'll try to find the crack in the wall. But like, by and large, when defenses load up to stop him, he'll still get off the ball. He'll still create advantages for other players that can capitalize. And unfortunately, his teammates aren't really able to do that in a lot of circumstances. You know, defensively, it's a whole different conversation. Just, it kind of is what it is. And his defense is such a mixed bag, mostly bad. And one of the things that really intrigues me when I think about, okay, what is he in a winning context because he's never played in the playoffs. Just. It's mysterious.
[82:21]
A
He was so. He was so close, man, so close. We won't remember. What a performance. But that whole season, what Was that? The 2024 season? It was the 2024 season when he got hurt in the playing the Lakers, when he had reached a rare plane of existence as an NBA superstar in a high leverage, like, must win kind of game where nobody could stop him. He just was like, just give me the ball. No one on this floor can do anything with me. And that whole season had crescendo to that moment like that had a landmark that season down the stretch. Had a landmark game in it. And I'll never forget. It's one of those random regular season games. Stick in your head. But they played the Clippers and he demanded to guard Kawhi and guarded him well in that game. And I was like, maybe things are really changing for Zion. And to your point, his defense is a complete disaster this season. He is an atrociously bad defensive rebounder as Bill has nitpicked over and over again incorrectly. So he doesn't move his feet well. His effort waxes and wanes and mostly wanes and he and Queen together is a completely untenable defensive front court. The Pelicans know that obviously it's why they started DeAndre Jordan in this game to see what it looks like when we have something resembling a rim protector. Because Zion needs a rim protector and Queen needs a rim protector and they both need it from the position at which the other plays. And so there's just. I do wonder. Dejounte Murray's about to come back. That introduces another ingredient. I do wonder if they will ever try to separate them in some way. It's a little awkward because like I don't think they want to start Zion at the three like they did in that game. I could see a world in which all right Queen, you kind of have hit the rookie wall a little bit. Your production has been a little bit of a slide. We're going to try to bring you off the bench for the next 10 games and start Eves and BC and just sort of see what that looks like. I don't know. But Zion's defense has just never recovered to that moment of his NBA career.
[84:18]
B
Yeah, I will say to what you were just talking about with kind of splitting him up with Derek Queen In 657 minutes of Zion, no Queen. The Pelicans net rating is 2.1 and their offense and their defense are slightly above league average. Just I just something to to note because I just you kind of look at him and you just, you know, the overarching question which you hit at the top is like why isn't he in all star conversations? Why isn't he in an all NBA conversations and what can he be in a winning situation and what is his related to that? What is his value to other teams? And there's so much baked into that beyond just how good or how good of a basketball player is what his shortcomings are. There's you know, the availability issue, of course, but he's just really fascinating in that I still think his ceiling is like borderline unstoppable. And I would love to see him in a situation that kind of accentuated a little bit more, put the ball in his hands a little bit more. I don't know where that is. I don't know what it is, what it'll look like in what organization. But I feel like, as I said at the top, his time with the Pelicans just feel like it feels like it has run its course despite him having two more years on his contract. They're not guaranteed, but two more years on his contract. I just, I when you said that the trade rumors are probably going to kick up after the season, I couldn't agree with you more as I was kind of watching the film and, and looking at his numbers and kind of seeing the New Orleans Pelicans like cap situation and the fact that they're basically rolling everybody back on this year's team to next season. It makes absolutely no sense to do that. So there has to be some, some shift here and I feel like he is the most likely player to, to be on the move for obvious reasons.
[86:14]
A
Now, they also control their pick next season, which they infamously do not this season. Now, next season's draft is not supposed to be anywhere near this season's draft, but you know, it's nice to control your own pick if you're going to contemplate a decision like trading your, I guess, best veteran player. I mean, I don't know if Trey Murphy has taken that mantle from him yet, but it's now close enough to be somewhat of a discussion. All right, so let's like to your to the point on Zion sort of being not lost in the shuffle, but different. Just here's the tracking data on genius sports second spectrum stuff. Post ups per 100 possessions, 2.9 per 100 possessions. In his peak years that was 6, 7, 8. Pick and rolls as the ball handler he is at 13.7 per hundred possessions. Peak years that was 20. Interestingly, on those, on those plays, if you really parse the data, he is I mentioned that how often he's drawing fouls. His his rate of taking shots like the percentage of pick and rolls in which he shoots as the ball handler is at a career high by a decent amount. His rate of passing and generating assists as the ball handler is at a career low by a decent amount. And I think that's what has also stuck out to me is he walked into the league as a good and fairly selfless passer. I don't think he's really advanced as a passer and in fact this season he's playing with not quite tunnel vision, but something like more just I'm here to score and not here to distribute the ball than he used to. By the way, I call it when I sort by ball handler, field goal attempt per pick and roll, I call that the Dylan Brooks list because Dylan Brooks is always number one or number two with a bullet and he is number one this year. When that dude runs a pick and roll, it is going up for better or worse. Get healthy soon. Dylan Brooks, his ISO. Zion's ISOs are more or less at his career average down from his peak. And interestingly, as the screener in a pick and roll, his numbers are also down in terms of the frequency being used as a screener. And that's one area where it doesn't ever. It doesn't really seem like he's ever been super interested in being a role like hit me in the pocket and I'll make the next pass kind of player. That doesn't really seem like he's something he's been super interested in doing to the point about his passing kind of stagnating and so it just feels like it's kind of stagnated. The other thing about point Zion, which has been this sort of thing we all are obsessed with and when his pick and rolls are at his highest, he looks like point Zion. It is very taxing on him physically. And that's something that I think that the Pelicans have been cognizant of is it's just hard work for a guy who's been injured a lot.
[89:04]
B
Yeah. If they could track like percentage of minutes in a defensive stance, I think he would probably rank worst in the league by a fair margin for sure. That's just. It's kind of funny when you watch him uncertain possessions. But yeah, no, I thought your point about his injury history lining up with the fact that he's being used less makes a lot of sense and I didn't even put two and two together. The fact that his true usage is the lowest it has been and has dropped significantly may have something to do with the fact that he's able to play in all these games and play in all these back to backs as well.
[89:48]
A
Yeah, I have no intel. I've done heard no rumors of Zion trade calls. I've done no reporting on it. I've not asked anybody about it. My gut just says Like, I'm not going to be surprised if he gets traded this summer. Especially with the Pelicans controlling their own pick and his weird contract structure that like starts off non guaranteed or partially guaranteed every year. All right, last thing. I gave you a homework assignment. I want to make the bad teams feel better. I said pick one thing on a tanking team. Could be anything. Could be uniforms, could be a player, could be a tactic, could be anything. One nice thing to say about one of the tank brigade. I have mine. But I'm gonna let you go first.
[90:29]
B
I'm going with Nolan Trore, rookie for the Brooklyn Nets.
[90:35]
A
You're staying home in your home borough of Brooklyn, New York.
[90:38]
B
Gotta rep your hook. 19 years old, 19th pick in the draft. I didn't think that he would be in the league this year, to be honest with you. Based on, I mean, he's. He might be the lightest, as in least heavy, thinnest player in the entire NBA. And it's like a serious issue when you watch him defensively, it's just plastic bag in the paint. So I thought he would spend most of his time in the, in the G League, but he started the last 11 games over that stretch. He's eighth in the entire NBA in total drives. He's getting into the paint, which is what the Brooklyn Nets really stress to everyone on their team, but in particular their rookies. They want them to get into the paint. They want them to spray out to the three point line. When Nolan is doing that, when he gets into the paint on a drive, 30% of the time, it's a kick out that creates a three pointer, which is one of the highest marks in the league. So he has been.
[91:42]
A
He's definitely fast.
[91:43]
B
He's fast. He's not afraid to get knocked down, which happens a lot. Turnover rate is really high, not efficient, all that sort of stuff. Of course the team is very bad right now, but I think just he's really kind of surprised me every time I watch them play. In terms of his poise with the ball, running a team, being a point guard, it's. It's been fun for them. So shout out to Nolan.
[92:17]
A
It's been fun for them. Very similar to when Joe Johnson said, it's not that bad here. And I said the Nets should just make that their slogan for, for the 20, 25, 26 nets. It's been kind of fun. It has not been kind of fun. And. But Traore has been all right. Joman has been better than advertised. His shooting is legit. I Like him, Wolf is an adventure in a, in a good way. You know, Powell does some stuff, obviously a good defender and Saraf has not played very much. So Shout out to the Nets. Interesting offseason, interesting off season coming up. Notable to me that Michael Porter Jr. Is still on the team. I don't mind the decision to keep Michael Porter Jr. Anyway. Mine was Jairus Walker for the Tanky Pacers. Jairus Walker, in 13 games since January 21st, 17 points, seven rebounds, three assists a game, 47% shooting, 38% on threes. Now his two point shooting for the season is a train wreck. He's up to 36% on threes and he's had some really high assist games lately. That made me go back and was like, I want to watch all these guys passes. He's got some flashy assists, like I'm talking one handed touch passes with either hand in traffic and the kind of assists that you want him to be making when the team is at full strength, when Halliburton's back and Zubots is back. And by that I mean he has placed, he's, he's become pretty, pretty sly attacking closeouts and then making the next play. And he's got good touch with both hands. He have these like pump and go and like really soft lefty lob pass to Jay Huff for a dunk and he's doing a jet. And it's the kind of pass you can see, it's the kind of connective passing you could see him making when they blitz a Halliburton, Zubot's pick and roll. And instead of hitting Zubots on the roll, because that's covered, Halliburton looks for an outlet, you know, above the three point line and shorts it and hits Jairus Walker and it's his job to make the next play. These are the kind of connective passes I'm talking about. Drive into a gap and like make the next right read. And he's also just got some straight up like flashy pick and roll passes because he's getting a little more responsibility. He had one, it was top of the key pick and roll with Huff. He drove right, the defense dropped and the pocket pass to Huff was not there if he made it with his right hand because he'd had to go through all the arms that were in the passing lane. So instead he went behind the back and made it with his left hand and hit J. Huff in the lane for like a floater or dunk. I was like, God damn, Jairus Walker. But if he can shoot threes at a decent clip, 36% for the season after an ice cold start and he can make passes like this and he can play defense. Remember this is a guy they drafted in the top 10 and traded up I think to draft. Was it? Did they trade up or trade one spot down? I can never remember that. That particular trade I think it was with Washington and like exactly the kind of complimentary player they need when they're full health and in a season when Ben Shepard has not really made any progress. Obi Toppin's been hurt the whole season. Johnny Furfee was starting to make progress and then towards acl. Like the Pacers really could have used this season to see a young player step into the kind of role that carries over into next season when the real team is back and it looked like are they just not going to get that at all? I think they're starting to get it with Jairus Walker. So that's my tanky nice thing.
[95:51]
B
Michael Pina, based on absolutely nothing coming out of the draft that year, he was my favorite player. I don't watch college basketball. I like that he played for Houston and Houston defended from what I read and saw a tiny bit in the NCAA tournament. So he was my favorite. So it's good to see you highlight him and make me feel good about an opinion I had several years ago.
[96:15]
A
Yeah, it was a Jairus Walker, Bilal Koulibaly swap where the Pacers I think actually moved down and got two second round picks for moving down, if I'm remembering it right. Anyway, that's my nice thing. Michael Pino, what do we got on the ringer this week out of you?
[96:31]
B
I think I'm doing something on the Cleveland Cavaliers and as I said earlier, I think that their ceiling is very high and I might say that they should be the favorites to come out of the Eastern Conference. We'll see.
[96:48]
A
Just going to end the podcast by disrespecting the Detroit business. Just like that. Look, if it goes to, if any series goes to Game seven, at least they have James Harden on their team. Michael Pina theringer.com must read everything he writes. Thank you for your time, buddy.
[97:03]
B
Thank you, Zach.
[97:06]
A
All right, that's it for today's edition of the Zach Low Show. We'll be back on Thursday per usual. Thanks to Michael Pina for his time and insight. Thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan as always on production. Thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe Show. We will see you later this week 21 are over and president select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky, Oman gambling problem call 1-800-gambler or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org Chattinconenetic or is it mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland? Hope is here. Visit G gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050. For 24. 7 supportive Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPE NY or text Hopeny in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867. Monster Energy Everybody knows White Monster Zero Ultra, that's the OG. It kicked off this whole zero sugar energy drink thing, but Ultra is a whole lineup now. You've got Strawberry Dreams, Blue Hawaiian Sunrise, and Vice Guava. And they all bring the Monster Energy punch. So if you've been living in the White can, branch out. Ultra's got a flavor for every vibe, and every single one is Zero Sugar. Tap the banner to learn more.
[98:31]
B
Close your eyes, exhale, feel your body relax and let go of whatever you're carrying today. Well, I'm letting go of the worry that I wouldn't get my new contacts
[98:41]
A
in time for this class.
[98:42]
B
I got them delivered free from 1-800-contacts. Oh my gosh, they're so fast. And breathe. Oh, sorry. I almost couldn't breathe when I saw
[98:50]
A
the discount they gave me on my first order. Oh, sorry. Namaste.
[98:55]
B
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