The Zach Lowe Show: The Annual Most Confusing Teams Podcast With John Hollinger
Date: October 6, 2025
Host: Zach Lowe
Guest: John Hollinger

Episode Overview

Zach Lowe kicks off his annual "Most Confusing Teams" episode – a fan-favorite tradition where he and a guest select and discuss the five NBA teams they find the hardest to make sense of before the season begins. The confusion can come from extreme variance in possible win totals, odd roster constructions, uncertain player fits, or general volatility. This year, Zach welcomes John Hollinger (The Athletic) as his new tag team partner. They each pick five teams (with a little overlap), debate the logic (or lack thereof) behind these franchises, and what might actually happen when the real games start.

Main Themes and Discussion Points

What Makes a Team "Confusing"?

• Zach’s Criteria:

  • “Confusing could mean high level of variance in a team’s win total. Are they going to be much better than expected? Much worse than expected? Or just like what is this going to look like on the floor? How is this all going to fit together?” (03:45, Zach)

• Both Zach and John agree that the topic isn’t about “good” or “bad,” but about teams with the widest range of believable outcomes, or the least clear identity.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

1. Philadelphia 76ers

(Picked by Hollinger, not Lowe) [05:07–12:45]

• Why Confusing: Riddled with uncertainty around Joel Embiid’s health, a mix of intriguing young role players, and a history of dramatic variance.
• Hollinger: “The Philadelphia 76ers who will win anywhere between 13 and 60 games this season.” (05:07)
• Possible for the Sixers to be surprisingly resilient in Embiid’s absence thanks to improvements in supporting depth, like Grimes, Edgecombe, and Watford.
• Lowe:
  • Fatigued by the “if Embiid is healthy” angle.
  • Consumed by roster questions: “Does Bona get the Drummond minutes or do we have to suffer through more Drummond minutes?” (07:12)
• Notable Roster Contracts/Decisions:
  • The Quentin Grimes negotiation signals Philly's tight salary situation and willingness to slow-play assets, in classic Daryl Morey fashion.
  • Hollinger: “This is a franchise—Daryl Morey in particular—I’d say of the league’s GMs, he’s probably the most comfortable with being uncomfortable.” (10:54)

2. San Antonio Spurs

(Picked by Hollinger, not Lowe) [12:56–17:33]

• Why Confusing:
  • How will De’Aaron Fox fit after a puzzling trade and underwhelming first impression?
  • Questions about maximizing Victor Wembanyama’s otherworldly talent.
  • “No player in the league makes you just cackle in the middle of watching a game like Victor [Wembanyama] does.” (13:03, Hollinger)
• Coaching transition from Popovich to Mitch Johnson: Is it Pop’s old system or something new?
• Shooting still a glaring issue despite immense talent and interesting rotational pieces.
• Lowe: “Their depth worries me a little bit… Their shaky three-point shooting to me is the biggest one.” (16:19)

3. Boston Celtics

(Picked by Lowe, not Hollinger) [17:59–21:53]

• Why Confusing:
  • Roster is extremely polarized: “They never get to the rim, never get to the free throw line, take a million three pointers… How do they do it without your entire big-man rotation from last year?” (18:42, Lowe)
• Notable quote: “I think they’re going to be worse than people expect because of that sheen of like ‘the Celtics, they just win a lot of games’. Like, I just don’t see it.” (20:16, Lowe)
• Frontcourt depth is unproven after off-season changes; question marks abound.
• Jalen Brown’s role: Is he ready to become an efficient #1 option? Lowe wants to see the offense adjust away from “Missoula ball” and experiment more.

4. Toronto Raptors

(BOTH picked, major overlap) [22:25–30:53]

• The Gold Standard for Confusing Teams:
  • “The most confusing mishmash in the entire NBA, possibly… your 2025-2026 Toronto Raptors.” (22:25, Lowe)
• Payroll signals “win now,” but win projections hover around .500.
• Starters: Ingram, Barnes, Barrett, Poeltl, Quickley—talented but an awkward mix.
• Fit issues: overlapping ball skills (Barnes/Ingram), shooting, and bench concerns.
• Notable quote: “What the hell are these guys even doing?” (24:53, Hollinger)
• Could this defense be legitimately elite, and is there any roadmap for an above-average offense?
• “The case [for optimism] would be: the defense is real-ish and they’re like the 9th or 10th best defense in the league…” (27:39, Lowe)
• Likely move: Need for a Barrett trade or breakout by a young shooting guard.

5. Houston Rockets

(Picked by Hollinger, not on Lowe’s radar) [31:17–37:24]

• Why Confusing:
  • "Does it not trouble you that like 11 of the 15 roster spots are for fours and fives?" (31:31, Hollinger)
• Very big, perhaps overly so, with questionable shooting and perimeter playmaking.
• Injury to VanVleet—lessons or disaster?
• Depth and fit of new additions in question (Finney-Smith, Capela, Durant).
• Lowe: Sees huge defensive floor, but after John’s critique, admits: “You have changed in five minutes my perception of the team.” (37:02)

6. Dallas Mavericks

(Picked by Lowe, near-miss for Hollinger) [37:31–45:58]

• Why Confusing:
  • Roster construction: “...Another weird team that leaned into being too big.” (37:34, Hollinger)
• Can Anthony Davis really play the four satisfactorily?
• Faith in stand-in options while waiting for Kyrie’s return.
• "Anthony Davis extension eligible this summer is one of the more fascinating pivot points that I can remember..." (43:36, Lowe)
• Is now the time to pivot around Cooper Flagg instead of AD/Kyrie era?
• Notable quote: “You gotta be ready to make a real hard decision as a franchise.” (44:39, Lowe)

7. Miami Heat

(Picked by Hollinger, not Lowe) [46:37–52:27]

• Why Confusing:
  • Few elite stars, persistent offensive struggles, Herro injury, and organizational confusion.
• “What are the Miami Heat right now?” (46:37, Hollinger)
• Roster moves (Pala, Fontechio) help, but internal improvement unclear.
• Can Bam become more than a mid-range shooter? Is Davion Mitchell really a starting PG?
• Both agree that Heat’s culture and Spoelstra's magic keep hope alive but little roster hope for leap.

8. Indiana Pacers

(Picked by Lowe, not Hollinger) [52:30–57:47]

• Why Confusing:
  • Perpetual over/underachiever; don't fit expectations of a rebuilding or contending team.
• Halliburton and Turner gone after Finals run; identity reboot needed.
• “The whole identity of the team flowed from one player… that’s obliterated on arrival.” (56:23, Lowe)
• Are Nembhard, Siakam, Matherin ready for more responsibility? Massive drop-off in shooting and half-court creation worries.

9. Phoenix Suns

(Picked by Lowe, not Hollinger) [57:51–64:27]

• Why Confusing:
  • Aftermath of the failed Beal/Durant/Booker era—roster now a bizarre mix.
• "Who's on this team and how is this going to look on the floor?" (57:56, Lowe)
• Glaring lack of shot creation without Booker on the court.
• Roster packed with hybrid-forwards/bigs; “Nine players who are either three and a halves, fours, or fives.” (59:13, Lowe)
• Is there a roadmap to relevance or is a Booker trade in the future?
• Defensive optimism tied only to scheme and “just being kind of big across the backcourt.” (63:58, Hollinger)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Lowe, on confusion: "I'm going to set the over/under on how many teams we both picked at two and a half. And I'm going to take the under." (04:25)

• On Philly:

  • Hollinger: “I'm holding out like the tiniest sliver of possibility [they could make the finals].” (08:48)

• On San Antonio:

  • “No player in the league makes you just cackle in the middle of watching a game like Victor does. Right?” (13:03, Hollinger)

• On Toronto:

  • “What the hell are these guys even doing?” (24:53, Hollinger)—summarizing the perplexing Raptors approach.

• On Houston:

  • Lowe: “You have changed in five minutes my perception of the team.” (37:02)

• On the Lakers/Mavericks (window):

  • "That's the window you made and it's a small window. When you did the LUCA-AD trade, you admitted it publicly. We're all in for now." (43:10, Lowe)
  • “Anthony Davis extension eligible this summer is one of the more fascinating pivot points that I can remember...” (43:36, Lowe)

Timestamps for Major Segments

• 76ers/Philly segment: 05:07–12:45
• San Antonio Spurs: 12:56–17:33
• Boston Celtics: 17:59–21:53
• Toronto Raptors: 22:25–30:53
• Houston Rockets: 31:17–37:24
• Dallas Mavericks: 37:31–45:58
• Miami Heat: 46:37–52:27
• Indiana Pacers: 52:30–57:47
• Phoenix Suns: 57:51–64:27

Tone & Final Thoughts

Lowe and Hollinger approach the podcast with wry humor ("comfortable being uncomfortable" jokes about Daryl Morey), friendly debate, and a deeply analytical lens. If you want forecasts and strong takes, this isn't the podcast—it's about curiosity, uncertainty, and the wild cards that might blow up NBA conventional wisdom.

Each team's segment avoids easy answers, instead offering a range of possible outcomes and detailed player/coach/roster dynamics. Even the championship contenders are not above scrutiny, and the podcast is loaded with specific role player and rotation insight.

Bottom line:
If you care about how NBA teams are really built (and sometimes fail), this is the annual episode you can’t miss.

For more:

• Read John Hollinger on The Athletic
• Listen to The Zach Lowe Show weekly
• Follow for fearless (and increasingly confused) season predictions