The Zach Lowe Show: “The Hawks Have Reached Their Limit With Trae Young, and the End of the Warriors”

Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Zach Lowe
Guest: Howard Beck
Podcast Network: The Ringer

Episode Overview

In this episode, Zach Lowe is joined by veteran NBA writer Howard Beck to dive into several of the league’s juiciest current situations. The centerpiece topics are the spiraling Atlanta Hawks—specifically their long-term future with Trae Young—and whether the Golden State Warriors’ dynasty has officially reached its conclusion. The episode also offers sharp breakdowns of the NBA’s chaotic lower tier, trade market speculation (Anthony Davis, Giannis, etc.), the implications of various lottery pick protections, and the surprising state of teams like the Jazz, Clippers, Nets, and Celtics. This is an episode for NBA obsessives—rich with stats, honest apologies, roster analysis, and philosophical questions about how teams should chart their paths forward.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Hawks Existential Crisis: The Trae Young Conundrum

[04:36–16:00]

Zach Lowe’s Apology Tour

• Zach admits to repeatedly falling for offseason “Hawks Hype,” believing that Atlanta’s moves, especially defensive upgrades and coaching tweaks, would elevate them (“I think I owe the world…an apology about the Atlanta Hawks…I should have known better…they’re just a tease.” [06:25]).
• Hawks currently at 15–18, mediocre both with and without Trae Young, and can’t escape league-average status (“five straight years of mediocrity since the 2021 run to the conference finals” [07:56]).
• Frustration with the annual plea for patience: “I’m sick of giving you time. Your time’s up. You’re a mediocrity.”

Trae Young Analysis

• Howard Beck: “Trey Young is in Year eight. He’s not growing—literally. The size issue is fixed…But could he ever grow as a ball mover, as a non-ball stopper, as a defender?” [09:56]
• Defensive and offensive advanced stats cited (119 points scored, 126 allowed per 100 with Trae on the floor—“they were better without Trey”).
• No extension offered; “writing has been on the wall” for possible split.
• Speculation: “It does feel like we are moving toward an inevitable divorce between the Hawks and Trey Young.” [11:35]

Trade Market and Asset Management

• No obvious blockbuster Trae Young trade available; player option and looming free agency muddy the waters.
• AD rumors: “I just don’t know…what the point is” in pursuing Anthony Davis, with his age, injury history, and contract demands. [14:10]
• Pelicans pick value ambiguous with league’s bottom constantly shifting.
• Howard on Anthony Davis: “It doesn’t feel like the right move at the right time for that team.” [18:30]
• Multiple franchise paths game-theorized: chase Giannis? Stand pat for lottery revenue? Gamble on Anthony Davis? (“Doing nothing may be the smartest path” [21:30]).

2. Lottery Chaos & Tanking Dilemmas

[33:21–56:00]

Valuing the Pelicans Pick: Reading the Bottom of the Standings

• Lowe sorts teams into “tiers of despair,” separating true tankers from squads just bad by circumstance (Washington, Indiana, Kings, Pelicans at the bottom, but Pelicans “frisky,” could climb).
• Teams like Charlotte, Brooklyn, Dallas, Utah, Clippers, Portland, Bucks, Grizzlies, and the Hawks add to the chaos in a crowded middle.
• Jazz’s Quandary: Their first-round pick is top 8 protected to OKC, so a razor-thin margin could determine whether they keep a decent asset or “give OKC the 10th pick in the draft.” [37:28]

What Should the Jazz Do?

• Jazz are too good to bottom out organically. Should they tank to keep their pick? (“It’s a very stark cliff between seventh or eighth in the lottery, ninth in the lottery.” [37:28])
• Can’t “blatantly tank” again; NBA eyes are watching.
• Debates (with real sympathy) whether to trade Markkanen now or push forward organically: “If you trade Markkanen, you might be ten years into the morass of being a losing team…and that isn’t palatable in that market.” [46:33]
• Tanking era context: “This is the system. If the NBA didn’t want it, they could do away with it...We all end up endorsing this, right?” — Howard [49:21]
• General tanking climate: “Do we actually need more anti-tanking measures? How many teams are truly tanking right now?” [50:55]

3. State of Other Fringe Teams: Clippers, Nets, Charlotte

[57:30–68:41]

Clippers

• Clear incentive for Clippers to try to win, now “playing way below their talent level” earlier in the year.
• Harden, Kawhi surging. “Their team should just be way better than their record.”
• Beck floats possibility of “selling high” on stars, but doubts the market for Kawhi or Harden exists; likely the team stands pat (“I want to see what then next month looks like for me…” — Lowe [60:46]).

Nets & Hornets

• Nets’ defense rated #1 in last month, beating expectations; Hornets now fun, especially with LaMelo, Brandon Miller, and Con Knippel healthy together (“Fun Charlotte stat for you…” [33:59]).
• Both teams could trade vets to further tank—Sexton, Claxton, Michael Porter Jr. for the Nets—but odds against truly bottoming out.

Takeaway

• League’s competitive balance means less incentive (and less ability) for pure tanking.
• Praise for the lottery odds: “I like this odds system has actually done its job…to be abysmally bad on purpose… the payoff just isn’t there anymore.” [54:57]

4. The End of the Warriors’ Dynasty

[68:41–81:39]

Anatomy of a Collapse

• Lowe offers a visceral account of the brutal OT Warriors loss in Toronto (“That’s as rough a loss as a team really reaching to find itself can have” [68:43]).
• Warriors still competitive but “window’s closed”—“There’s honor in raging against the dying of the light.” [71:49]
• Steve Kerr’s recent introspective comments, acceptance of the end (“We’re a fading dynasty, and there’s beauty in the struggle.”)

Trade Market & Roster Futures

• No obvious move to make them contenders again.
• “You cannot squander the last great years of a superstar who still has greatness left in them. And Steph does.” — Beck [74:49]
• Discusses possible small deals (Claxton, other role players) to keep them “good” rather than blowing it up for a star.
• Kuminga’s future: “He has not played well enough this season…he’s going to get traded.” — Lowe [76:15]
• “This was always it, man. I still love watching them play …they’re a good team and on the right night they can beat anybody…and that’s fine. There’s honor in that.” [78:12]

5. Celtics’ Resiliency & the Intrigue of the East

[82:02–90:38]

Jayson Tatum’s Achilles Rehab

• Boston playing better than anyone expected without their star (“Jalen Brown’s been so freaking good that…Should Jason Tatum…come back as soon as possible from the Achilles is in play…” [82:16]).
• Cites improved recovery times, but predicts Tatum will be 80% of himself at best this year; “huge asset” even in a secondary or hybrid role (“…this team is actually constructed for him to be apex role player Jason Tatum for two months.” [88:10])
• Praise for Derrick White (“best 39% shooter in the history of the NBA” [88:34]) and Joe Mazzulla (“Unbelievable. Jalen’s been unbelievable. They play super, super hard across the board.”).
• Celtics can still “make a lot of hay in the regular season by having one elite offensive player…if you play your asses off and everybody defends, you can be pretty competitive.” — Beck [89:28]

Memorable Quotes & Notable Moments

• Zach Lowe on the Hawks: “I’m sick of giving you time. Your time’s up. You’re a mediocrity. And the only thing left to do is accept that you’re a mediocrity.” [08:37]
• Howard Beck on Trae Young: “Maybe it’s just time for everybody to conclude, including the Hawks themselves, that there isn’t a higher ceiling with Trae Young as a key piece.” [11:35]
• Lowe on Anthony Davis trade rumors: “That just feels like a sort of last gasp at what exactly, I don't know.” [14:36]
• Howard on the Jazz: “It’s become a quandary, and in part, it's because they should have traded Lauri Markkanen 50 times by now and haven’t.” [40:06]
• Lowe on tanking: “This is the system. If the NBA didn’t want it, they could do away with it…We all end up endorsing this, right?” — [49:21]
• Lowe on Warriors’ decline: “There’s honor in raging against the dying of the light. There’s honor in giving Steph a competitive team … but the window’s closed.” [71:49]
• Kerr’s comments: “We’re a fading dynasty, and there’s beauty in the struggle.” [71:49, paraphrasing Steve Kerr]
• Howard on maximizing Steph’s window: “You cannot squander the last great years of a superstar who still has greatness left in them.” [74:49]
• Lowe, on the Celtics' resilience: “This team is actually constructed for him (Tatum) to be apex role player Jason Tatum for two months.” [88:10]
• Howard Beck on the new NBA landscape: “You can play your asses off around the one supreme offensive player and win a lot of games.” [89:28]

Timestamps for Key Sections

• Hawks' situation, apology & Trae Young: 04:36–17:36
• Anthony Davis, Giannis, and Hawks' directions: 12:59–22:36
• Lottery chaos, Pelicans pick, Jazz dilemma: 33:21–47:47
• Tanking, league-wide analysis: 49:21–56:30
• Clippers, Nets, Hornets, new-look bottom: 57:30–68:41
• Warriors existential crisis, collapse in Toronto: 68:41–81:39
• Celtics, Jayson Tatum’s return calculus: 82:02–90:38

Tone & Style

• Lively, self-deprecating (“I stink! I blew it! I’m the worst!” — Lowe [11:35]); deeply knowledgeable; a blend of humor and hard truths.
• Genuine chemistry and frankness between Zach and Howard—able to both roast franchises and express sharp sympathy for fans, GMs, and even aging warriors.
• Stats-rich but always driving toward the big existential NBA questions.

Summary Takeaway

This episode delivers peak Zach Lowe Show: unflinching evaluations (Hawks, Warriors), big-picture team-building debates (Lottery chaos, trade calculus), and up-to-the-minute observations on league dynamics. For fans of any flavor—analytics nerds, armchair GMs, or just pure NBA drama lovers—it’s an essential, entertaining listen.