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- [00:00]
A
This episode is brought to you by State Farm. One minute the crowd's cheering, the next the scoreboard flips. Sports are full of surprises and life isn't much different. That's where State Farm comes in with their easy to use digital tools and over 19,000 local agents who can help you call the right play. Because when you know someone's ready to assist, you have the confidence to take on the unpredictable. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Price and eligibility vary by state. All right, coming up on the Zach Lowe show, the postseason is here and what a postseason it has been so far. Just the first few games of the play in tournament epic almost across the board minus Orlando kind of petering out in Philadelphia. And we have six first round series set. You know what that means. It's six by six, eight by eight, whatever we want to call it time with Kurt Goldsberry. We're going to rapid fire preview every first round series X's and O's adjustments, adjustments to the adjustments predictions. We're going to put our, our our names on the line with these predictions. We're going to predict the play in games that are remaining for the eighth seed on Friday. Phoenix, Golden State. Holy smokes, the warriors. Giving us another memory. Stephen Draymond. We'll break down all the playing games that have happened. And then of course Orlando, Charlotte for the eighth seed in the East. We're going to predict those games and we get to react to some news live on the air. Cade and Luka eligible for all NBA MVP et cetera. They have won their appeals. Anthony Edwards has not. We'll react to that. And just why does the play in feel so different than the regular season? We'll talk about that. Clippers future after a loss. Heat future after a loss. Orlando staring into the abyss. All coming up with Kurt Goldsberry on the Zach Lowe Show. We're loaded. The playoffs are here. Let's go. The Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA postseason is here and FanDuel knows the only thing better than watching your favorite team win is winning along with them. FanDuel is the best place to bet the teams players and plays during their playoff run. Build a same game parlay or try live betting and jump in after tip off. And don't forget with FanDuel you get paid instantly when you win. Download the FanDuel sportsbook app now and play your game 20 or over in select states 18 and over in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut. Welcome to the Zach Lowe show. The Play in Tournament halfway over the playoffs six series said Kurt Goldsberry is here to help me talk about the Play in. Look ahead to Friday's games for the 8th seed and my annual 8 by 8 which is now 6 by something preview of every first round series. What a wild week in the NBA. We have a night off tonight. I might be a hu. Maybe I'll watch a movie. Maybe I'll just sleep for 12 hours. I feel like I need a break after 3.75 epic play in games. KG how you doing?
- [03:13]
B
I'm doing great. It's the most wonderful time of the year for people like you and me. Not only do we have this triumph that we call the Play in tournament entertaining us all week, we get ready to look ahead to the granddaddy of them all. With all due respect to the Rose bowl, the NBA playoffs is the best sporting event in the world and I can't wait for it.
- [03:32]
A
Let's review the four playing games so far. Charlotte, Miami Bill called it the drunkest game of the season. Fitting LaMelo Bad 3 back cut on defense Bad 3 turnover against full court press fouls. Tyler Herro somehow wins the game on a layup. Should maybe probably be suspended for this next game after tripping bam out of bio and injuring him. A super dirty play to a beloved player. A loss that thrusts the Heat into off season chaos and question marks galore. Then we have Phoenix Portland coming out party for Denny Abdia. Not coming out party but like stating correct me if I'm wrong, Kirk is a voter stating his all NBA case even though you should be done considering the evidence. But you also don't have the ballots because a group of litigators and or Ernst and young accountants are deciding who's actually eligible for these awards. What a freaking disaster of disorganization for the NBA. This 65 game rule has turned into and you're what are you supposed to do? You're just a human being. You're supposed to just tell your brain brain ignore this game. It doesn't even exist statistically. It's not a regular season game. It's not a playoff game. It just happens and that fritters away into outer space. First of all, just call it a playoff game. You just have to include it in the stats. It's a playoff game. Just call it what it is. Second of all you really just haven't even got the ballot yet. That's where we are with this.
- [04:56]
B
We haven't gotten them unless they've landed since I've gotten on this Zoom podcast. But you're exactly right. Watching Con Caniple really struggle in that game, which I would say not only the drunkest game, I think it was drunk and high. Zach Lowe, to your point, drunk and high. And then watching Denny do what he did. I'm supposed to not be affected by this as a voter. I'm. I'm going to do my best. Zach Lowe. I also already had Cooper Flag. I talked about that on Bill's show the other day, but this.
- [05:25]
A
Was he, Maddie, was he mad at you? I haven't listened to yet.
- [05:28]
B
Well, I told him there's. There's a woman in Maine named K. Kelly Flag who was asking me what Bill's vote for Rookie of the year was. And I said, hey, just so you know, people are watching you, Zach or Bill Simmons. And he wasn't mad at me, but I think it was good that I was there to make the case for Cooper, who I think has a solid case for Rookie of the Year. I don't think anybody can argue that. But long story short, the plan's been awesome. A great Steph moment, which I know we're going to talk about next, but just hats off to the league. I know we give them a hard time on a lot of things, Zach, but the plan tournament deserves some flowers.
- [06:04]
A
First of all, I also flipped to Cooper Flag, Rookie of the Year by the end, before. Before the playing games. And I turned my brain up. Even though I don't have a ballot. I just. I respected the process. I told my brain, brain, brain, this game doesn't count. Brain shut it down. And then, of course, last night, the Magic, you know, couldn't even beat the Sixers without Joel Embiid in Philly. Has. I mean, I know the answer to this, but, like, has a coach ever been fired between the two playing games before? What a mess. And then the old Lions of Golden State, why bother get a lottery pick? Why is Steph even coming back? You know why? Because Steph Curry and Draymond Green touched Magic for us. Maybe one last time. Maybe they got a little bit more in them, but boy, what a thrill to see these two guys, and Steph in particular, coming off that runner's knee, raging against the dying of the light. Draymond Green 2 all time vintage Draymond Green defensive plays against Kawhi Leonard late in the game two Steals that ice the game. And Steph Curry, an explosion in the second half. Three is over everybody. Threes in everybody's face. You get a three. John Collins, you get a three. Brook Lopez, you get a three. Chris Dunn, everybody on the Clippers gets threes in that one last one, the one that put him up by three. The one where he fell out of bounds and asked the fan like, yeah, that went in, right? I'm Steph Curry. That went in.
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B
I don't.
- [07:25]
A
I need. I don't even need verification, but just, just. I'm playing with you. That was a classic Steph Draymond Green pitch back play that they've run 10,000, 20,000, 50,000 times. How glorious to see it again. And boy, oh, boy, the Clippers. An absolute catastrophe of a season for the Clippers, which they kind of salvage with the hardened Darius Garland trade. And we'll see, yeah, how the lottery treats them with the Pacers pick that they get for Zubots, but they start 6 and 21. Great. They recovered from that. You know what the basketball gods reward you with? You're gone. You're out. The Thunder have a lottery pick because of you. And now you almost have to root for your own humiliation. Because if the Thunder move up in the draft via your pick, the Pacers might move down in the draft and you might get the Pacers pick, which you only get if it's five to nine. And Kawhi, look, you can tell me. Draymond was playing sensational defense on him the entire game. He was. Where the hell was he in the fourth quarter of the game? Did they run one action other than like a high screen now and then? Where were the cross screens for Kawhi Leonard? Since when is any defense stopped for Kawhi Leonard? From getting to his spot at the elbow and rising up. He was completely invisible. I have no idea what happened. An absolute disastrous ending for the Clippers. But takeaway number one. Oh, and I forgot to mention, by the way, courtesy of Danny Abdia, the Bulls get Portland's first round draft pick. Congratulations to the Chicago Bulls. Late season all around. Hire somebody. Spend money. I don't know. You're the Bull. You're only the Bulls. It's only Michael Jordan's team. Takeaway number one, as you said, the play in is amazing. Long live the play in. But here's my question for you, Kirk. And Ethan Strauss wrote about this in his newsletter, and it was the number one thing that stuck out to me. It's like a different sport has emerged already. Like the Stakes are so different. The crowds are so different, the intensity is different, the chess match is different. And as delightful as it is going from the end of the regular season where half the games are trashola to this, I do think we have to have a conversation. The regular season is never going to feel like this. The stakes are never going to be that high. But there is a big gap. And it's just like the regular season has to feel a little bit more like this. How do we get the regular season games, the outcome of regular season games, how do we get it so that it feels like it actually matters that there are actually stakes in those games? Because the transition from regular season to play in not even playoffs should not be this stark.
- [10:01]
B
Yeah, I agree. I think, you know, the obvious answer for me is we're playing over 1200 regular season games and that's simply too many to, to bring that kind of emotional stakes to these events. And you know, one idea I think I pitched to you if the league expands to 32 teams, is let's go to a 62 game schedule. Everybody plays everybody twice. You have a home and away with every team. It's a completely balanced schedule. You can have an NBA cup in the middle. That's a single elimination 32 team tournament. And then that way every time the Clippers play the warriors, it's the only time Steph's coming to LA for the Clippers. The only time. And I think that would help. I think scarcity is the business school professor answer to the question is like the product is diluted when there's this many games. Not to mention, as you already sort of referenced, the crapola of 10 teams not necessarily trying to win those games has polluted the intensity of a huge amount of the league's inventory during the regular season. So for me, the answer is clear. Scarcity, thinning out the schedule. I just don't know if that's realistic, Zach, for the league, its owners and its players to agree, hey, let's go from 82 games to 62 games. So I'd be curious what your answer to that question would be other than just, hey, let's, let's thin out the games and make it more interesting per game.
- [11:27]
A
Well, first, before I answer that question, Mr. Goldsberry, we have breaking news that affects you as an awards voter. Do you want a plot twist? We got. This is like a usual suspect level plot twist. The NBA, according to Sham Strania, has ruled in and the union. I don't know how the NBA and the union have Ruled. I guess they're ruling on this. No one knows how this works. In favor of Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham, Both of them on their extraordinary circumstances challenge for the 65 game award rule, making both eligible for all season honors. Okay, so I was pro Luca winning his appeal, parenting for the win, being there for the birth for the win. I know he missed other games. He got suspended. That's the point of the rule. Blah, blah, blah. This is an acknowledgment of the end by the NBA. First of all, redo your ballot again. Turn your brain. Turn half your brain on. Leave the play in part of your brain off. Redo your ballot again. Or you don't even have a ballot yet. You're going to get it soon. Maybe. Number two, this is the NBA shitting on a rule that it made up and collectively bargained with the union in real time, telling you, hey, we think this is nonsense. Have a backbone. I'm glad they won. You don't even have a backbone to defend it because Luka Doncic got suspended and injured. It's just unbelievable. But I'm happy for the players. They both deserve to be all NBA, probably first team. So get your ballot ready.
- [12:53]
B
Well, that's how many players are now affected by this. Right? So we have Lucas Slotting in. So there's one less person. All NBA. Cade, which I did not expect. Zach Lowe.
- [13:03]
A
I didn't expect either of them to win because you know what? You made a rule and you're supposed to enforce the rule. But I'm glad they didn't. I'm just surprised that they caved like this.
- [13:10]
B
Well, I was on the Zach Lowe show the morning after we found out or the morning we found out about his collapsed lung, which is a terrifying injury. And I remember thinking with you at that time, like, is he going to be eligible? This is one of the best players in the league this season. It's a great story this season. And then I sort of filed that away. He's not going to get to the game total because of an injury because of the collapsed lung, which is again, terrifying. Now I have to go back. Okay, Lucas first team, all NBA with the other three foreigners. I have Jaylen Brown in that fifth spot over Cade, mostly. Now you got.
- [13:44]
A
Now we got it. So I had my first team. Now you need a matrix of like four different ballots at the same time. Who's eligible, who's not. My first team, with Luka and Kate ineligible, was Wemby, Jokic, Shay, Jalen Brown, Donovan, Mitchell, Luca, Bumps Donovan Mitchell for sure. And then I'd have to sit down and do I have to look at Cade's numbers again? Anthony Edwards, by the way, his appeal, according to Shams was denied, so he's not eligible. What a. What a mess. But congratulations to both players. They both deserve it. That's awesome. Yeah.
- [14:15]
B
And then to your other point. Now I have to pretend I didn't see that Kawhi fourth quarter last night. I have to pretend I didn't see the Denny fourth quarter, 41 point outburst. I have to pretend that Con Knippel didn't play his probably his worst game of the year in the playing game and go fill out my ballot. But you know, when it comes to these two gentlemen in the headline with Cade and Luca, this is the right call. This is the right call. These dudes deserve to have these seasons memorialized and honored to. They were both great players for their teams. They're both huge reasons why those are both top three seeds. This is the right decision. I wish it just didn't involve lawyers and it involved common sense.
- [14:57]
A
Amen. Okay, back to the play in and the regular season. The shortening the season is the obvious answer, right? And shortening the season combined with disincentivizing tanking so that you have to have games on the simplest terms. Winning has to mean something and losing has to mean something bad. Winning has to mean something good and losing has to mean something bad. What a fucking concept. Shorten the season, mess up the tanking stuff which they're trying to do, I don't know how effective they're going to be, and every game would suddenly feel more meaningful. At the very least now all the people will tell you, well, that's. You can't do that. People will lose money. Okay, like really? Are you sure? Are you sure that over 25 years, if you went down just to 60 to 65 games, that when you factored in ticket prices could probably increase because of scarcity? Television ratings could increase because of scarcity, which would increase your TV deal. Is it 100% set in stone that you would lose money in the long run? Do you only care about the short run NBA owners because you want to sell your team asap? Do you care about the health of the game at all? Great. You increase the stakes with the in season tournament. No one actually cares about the in season tournament. Really. I mean, it's cute, but no one actually cares about it. And I also think like, it's worth considering in the tanking dialogue, the proposals that are still out there that don't just disincentivize losing, but that actually incentivize winning. So winning after a certain date or the one I reported on last week where it was something like the bottom two or three teams cannot pick in the top two of the draft or something like that. And so they, everyone is incentivized to beat each other and win games. I think all of that works. And the other thing is I was glad a couple weeks ago that Mark Cuban brought up the concept of the 40 minute game. 12 years ago, 13 years ago at Grantland, I wrote, I kind of tried to make the case for the 40 minute game and it's a controversial subject. Would stars hog all the minutes? What would that do to the middle class of players? Historical records would be a little messed up and all of that. I just like the idea of a more intense game and a little bit more unpredictability. Right. The shorter the game, the better the chances for an upset. And I think that is part of this too is you have to be careful with how predictable you make the game. So Bill and I were talking about is one way to raise the stakes in the regular season to give the top seeds more power in the like, more home games, more of an advantage in the playoffs. And actually the more I think about it, I'm pro, the top seeds picking their own opponent. I don't want to give them too much more of an advantage like with an extra home game or whatever because I want. The NBA is already the most predictable sport. I want to inject a little bit more upset possibility. But like they just. These games feel so different than the regular season games and it shouldn't be that different. Okay, play and takeaway number two, biggest current crisis in the aftermath of the first playing games. Miami, Clippers, Orlando.
- [17:57]
B
Orlando. And it's not close for me. I think Miami can look at that game and say man, if Bam Adebayo was healthy, we have a different result in that game and we're still playing. The Clippers always they've had sort of a nightmare season off the court which I think sort of pollutes their, their vibe Anyway. Orlando is the biggest crisis of a team. We thought if you look at over unders before this season, what their expectations were internally and externally, this is a disaster. The coaching is a disaster. The executives are feeling pressure. The superstar or superstars on their roster depending on a classified, Paolo and Franz are feeling pressure. And if they lose this games act to Charlotte, man, it's going to be a really dark, really newsworthy Spring and summer in Orlando.
- [18:49]
A
Well, and they're healthy now, right? And so how long can we just hang our hat on? Well, when we get healthy, our starting five is plus eleven per hundred possessions, which we just need to get healthy. Anthony Black's back, Franz is back, and the offense still looks clunky. Count. Count the number of possessions where there are no passes or one pass and then someone just dribbles into a long two. Watch the possessions where Palo and Franz stand on opposite corners as if they're effective floor spacers, which. While Jalen Suggs runs the offense or Bain runs the offense, neither of them is an effective floor spacer. In fact, you know, the commentators were totally on point last night, Paolo, just not even looking at some open threes. And where is the synergy? Where is the split action? Where's the, where's the cutting? Where's all of that? And, and just like nothing from De Silva, Isaac is gone. Nothing from Jed Howard, nothing from Jace Richardson. Where are the young guys? They're not even there. This game against Charlotte is. I mean, we're at the last stand of the Orlando Magic is over. Like the fact that they're sitting here begging for their life as the eighth seed and having to win a home game over the Hornets, they couldn't even like they lost by double digits to the Sixers without Embiid. Thrilling performances from Maxi and Edgecomb for sure. But like, you should be able to win that game if you're Orlando. I guess that's the right answer. Miami, I think, is super interesting because they just, they've already had the come to Jesus moment of like, this is just what the team is. We're, we're in the play in again. We decided that we cannot play Hero and Norm Powell together, like ever anymore. They staggered their minutes so dramatically that clearly one of them, if not both of them will be off the team next year. And they have at their disposal, depending on a few things, up to four first round picks to trade this summer. I expect them to be all in on Giannis again. They went semi in on Durant, didn't get him. They went semi in on Lillard, didn't get him. Are they going to be precious about it again? I understand it because if they trade everything for Yan, let's say they trade Hawkes, where Hero picks. You have Giannis and bam. And then like, what? Do we actually have enough? But they may have reached a point where the do we have enough? Question is, is less pressing to them because they know they don't have Enough now. And why not take a shot at something different? And the Clippers. We already just talked about what a disaster it is.
- [21:15]
B
By the way, on the Clippers front. Uh, did you see that Chris Paul trolled the Clippers on Instagram after that game? That's. That's an incredible punctuation mark on the Clipper season.
- [21:25]
A
I did not sure. It makes Chris Paul look as. As clever and great as he thinks it might be. It is, it is funny.
- [21:33]
B
It's. Yeah. I think it's noteworthy when the best player in your franchise history trolls you after you lose.
- [21:38]
A
And Blake Griffin was on. I was on TV last night with Blake Griffin. He, he was sort of, you know, mentioning it too, at one point. And I, I think. You know what? I think you take it to the next level. If you' I think you go to the game dressed like the funeral guy and you sit court side. I think that's what you do. Call your shot before the game, dress like that and sit courtside for the game.
- [22:00]
B
That's classic Zach Low. All right, great. Great one, Zach.
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A
Let's talk about the playing games real quick. Where do you want to start? You want to do Golden State Phoenix or Orlando Charlotte,
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B
dude. Dealer's choice, baby.
- [22:16]
A
Do golden state Phoenix. The 10 seed versus the 7 seed. Phoenix is at home. What intrigues you about this game? Other than the obvious? Can the warriors just give us another moment of magic and get in and get the eighth seed and get whooped by the Thunder? But still, this is fun. And Phoenix, it's been a feel good season for them. They've made a lot of changes in their lineup in the last couple of weeks. Starting Jordan Goodwin, bringing Gillespie off the bench. Gillespie was their primary guy on Steph Curry in the regular season. I think Goodwin will get the assignment. Ryan Dunn has guarded him a little bit. He's been in and out of the rotation. Wouldn't shock me if we get like a starting lineup change for one of these teams. Like if you're the Suns. Iguidaro, you clearly sort of feel safer with him as the starting five than you do with Mark Williams. And he's a. He's a more steady defensive option, guarding Stephen, pick and rolls. I what intrigues you about this game other than the Al Horford renaissance, which you already should have mentioned as well.
- [23:13]
B
Yeah. And the Porzingis. So I'll do that. I'll say that the sort of vintage Celtics front court coming back to life. Like, I think that this is the front court that Mike Dunleavy had imagined Playing this type of this time of year when he made these deals. So can they do that again? Al Horford was absolutely massive. His biggest basketball moment in a minute in that game with those corner threes especially. One of the big reasons we're talking about Golden State playing Phoenix as opposed to the Clippers playing Phoenix is Al Horford's clutch shooting the 43 points in the fourth quarter. Porzingis also doing it on both ends. He had a couple of big threes, he had a couple of massive put back dunks, Some pickle action with Steph.
- [23:55]
A
The put back dunks were like, whoa man, you must be. It's so great to see because of how the last two seasons have been with him with this illness. To see that level of bounce and like joy that he had after those was like, okay, I like that this is a guy that the warriors are legitimately interested in. Resigning does fit with Butler and Green and how they play. Assuming all those guys are back might be gettable on not super expensive contract because he's just been so unreliably available for various reasons. But that was awesome last night. Yeah.
- [24:27]
B
And that for me the question for you would be, can, can those old guys do this one more time in Phoenix? Because if that's the Porzingis we're getting and that's the Horford we're getting, I feel pretty comfortable taking Steph Curry and the warriors to win this game in Phoenix and steal the eight seed. But I'd ask you, how do you feel about that matchup specifically those old guys in the front court doing this again?
- [24:50]
A
I think they can make shots for sure. Poor Zane. They get a day off, right. They're not on a back to back. They don't have to travel far. I think the schedule is good for them. To me, as always with the warriors, they were 26th in turnover rate on offense and they're facing the team that forced the third most turnovers on defense in Phoenix. They have to take care of the ball. That's step one. And I'm just interested in like how they match up with Booker. Obviously Phoenix's best player, Jalen Green's been kind of ant. Was okay in the first playing game. Scored a lot of points in their new starting five with Curry. Santos Pajemski, by the way, Pajemski sneaky, really good season for him. And then Green and Porzingis, they don't have like their ideal Booker matchup which has been Melton or Moody or Butler. It makes me wonder if would they start Gary Payton II or the Anthony Melton? Would they just start the game with Draymond Green on Devin Booker and put somebody else on? Dylan Brooks robbing us of the Brooks vs. Green inevitable flare up. I put the over under on like three and a half minutes into the game. I'm going to go ahead and do it. Kirk. I'm going to say the warriors have one more night of magic in them and they beat Phoenix and get the eighth seed. That's my official prediction.
- [26:06]
B
Yeah, I wish I could make interesting content for the podcast, but that's what I see too. I see. I just, I think there's too many champions on that team like Al Horford, Christophe Porzingis, Draymond Green, Stephen Curry. If two of them rise up and look Jalen Green taking 29 shots and Devin Booker taking 19 shots, that's the wrong order and I need, I need to see Devin Booker be the best player in this game. I need to see Dylan Brooks be a little bit better and a little bit smarter than he was last game. Those things could happen. But yeah, right now I'm picking the Golden State warriors to steal the eighth seed Orlando Charlotte.
- [26:44]
A
Charlotte won the regular season series three one. Franz missed three of the games. Read into it what you will. A bunch of guys missed a bunch of games.
- [26:51]
B
Yeah,
- [26:53]
A
Charlotte obviously survived in advance. They are on the road going to Orlando. I think this is like a pretty straightforward game in terms of matchups and X's and O's. Like LaMelo has has tried to hide on like Da Silva types in previous games. Da Silva's not starting anymore. They're healthy. He'll probably guard Suggs so we'll see a lot of Palo Suggs two man game. Both ways to try to hunt hunt Lamelo. The Hornets are going to run and try to shoot threes. The Magic are to try to out physical a Hornets team that's a little smaller than them. What. What say you on this one?
- [27:28]
B
Yeah, I just don't see Orlando being able to score the number of points it's going to take to keep up with an average night from Charlotte. Now Charlotte had a nightmare night shooting the basketball which as you know is their signature skill in this sort of revival. They ranked first or second in both three point volume and efficiency down the stretch, which I've never seen in years covering the league. They were blending volume and they. Long story short, they're the best shooting team in the league. They had a nightmare and still won the other night. So if they can just have an average night if Khan can make a couple of threes. Lamelo was what, two of 16 from three and they still won. So if they get to 110, 120, 125, I just don't see the offense I watched against Philadelphia keeping up with that. I think Desmond Bain, by the way, played incredible basketball for Orlando. It looked like a great transaction and then I have it in front of me. The rest of the magic were 3 of 21. And unlike that shooting night I just called out about Charlotte, that can happen with the Orlando Magic. That's their kind of shooting. They do not shoot the basketball. And so if you can take away two point offense from Orlando, and I think Charles Lee's a good enough coach to do that or at least contain it, I just don't see on the scoreboard the most basic stat of them all. The point total for Orlando getting high enough to beat Charlotte.
- [28:48]
A
Paolo had six turnovers last night, a lot of it just due to stagnancy and getting ripped in the lane on ISOs. By the way, credit Maxi and Edgecombe. They both ripped him at various times. Maxey had an awesome chase down block late in that game. He's made a huge level up on defense this year. I'd have to look back and see who gets bumped the third team, all NBA and who gets bumped off my all NBA teams now that Luka and Kate are eligible. But I think Maxi should be a shoo in for third team. He probably gets bumped. I'm saying I'm thinking the third team and I think off the top of my head, Cat and Scotty Barnes would be the casualties off my third team, but so be it. I'm with you. Why would I have any faith that Orlando wins this game? Why would I have any faith that the team is going to come together in a moment of adversity and crisis and put all the tension, all the obvious stylistic tension, all the obvious coach player tension, all of that aside for one game against a team that has been objectively significantly better than them for 50 plus games. The one matchup I am watching is Brandon Miller, Franz Wagner, which we have not seen much. I think that's an interesting pivot point for this game. And whoever wins that, like I think Orlando needs a big Franz game. Brandon Miller's off ball defense can sometimes waver a little bit. He can get back cut, he can lose track of his guy, but he's an awesome player and he hasn't been tested at this level with the game of this stakes in a while. So I'm watching that matchup, but I will take Charlotte. So we take both the road teams in in the eight seed games. Why not?
- [30:20]
B
I don't feel great about it because of that. Home teams usually win these kinds of things, but yeah, I think we're in unusual times.
- [30:27]
A
All right, let's take a break and then we're going to go. Six playoff series, six predictions, six look aheads the Zach Lowe show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NBA play In Tournament is back and you can get better payouts this NBA play in on FanDuel. All FanDuel customers can claim a profit boost every day of the tournament. Plus you can also enter FanDuel's play in Palooza for a chance to win a share of $2 million in bonus bets every day of the Play in tournament. All you have to do is place a live bet using your Play in palooza token. Visit FanDuel.com Low play your game with FanDuel, official sportsbook partner of the NBA 21 over in select states or 18 and over in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. No purchase necessary. Opt in required limit 1 entry profit boost bonus issued as non withdrawal Profit Boost Token prizes issued as non withdrawable bonus bets which expire seven days after receipt. Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincut this episode is brought to you by Men's Warehouse. So you've looked at all the data, you've looked at your lineup and yep, you need to freshen up your wardrobe. So check out Menswearhouse. They've got you covered for every occasion with a huge variety of clothing and styles from tailored clothing like suits, sports coats, dress shirts, tuxes for more formal events to casual clothing like polo shirts, shorts and jeans for everyday wear. The Men's Wearhouse experts can help you find the right look while their on site tailors guarantee your clothes have the right fit for your body, Men's wearhouse has over 600 locations nationwide. The they are here and nearby when you're ready to love the way you look. Okay, Today's favorite first round series to watch is presented by State Farm on the court. You can't expect everything to go as planned, from upsets to buzzer beaters. Uncertainty is just part of the game and life is no different. Unexpected things happen. That's why State Farm is there with the assist, but more on that later. For now, I'm here to assist you with the NBA Playoffs and Kurt Goldenberry. We're going to go in my personal order of how entertained I expect to be by these series and that's why the State Farm favorite first round series is Minnesota Denver Roman Numeral 3, Revenge of the Jamal Murray or something like that. 202341 Denver in the first round. The Nuggets on their way to the title called it the toughest series of their run. Real turning point for Kat. I thought even though the Wolves lost, he kind of found himself in that series. Now is not on the Timberwolves 2024 the next year seven game epic Minnesota with a huge rally on the road in Game 7 against Denver. Some characters remain, some characters are gone. We got Jada McDaniels guarding Jamal Murray. We got Rudy Gobert probably guarding Nicole Jokic, but maybe they're going to monkey around with the matchups. We got Aaron Gordon healthy, we got Peyton Watson as a maybe and he's big because he's their best defender. I think on Anthony Edwards. Apologies to Christian Brown who will get the nod in the starting five. What interests you my friend about Denver Minnesota 3 well, a lot and I'm
- [33:34]
B
glad you picked it first. I can't wait for it. I wish it were a 17 game series for all of these. I have my pick. I have the best player in the series. I have a big question for Zach Lowe and the X factor.
- [33:46]
A
I like it. Let's go.
- [33:47]
B
So I am going to do some solid content here for the Zach Lowe Show. I'm going to pick Minnesota in seven games so I'm going to start with that and here's why. I don't know if Denver can stop Minnesota's offense. I think the biggest red flag in the whole Western Conference contender picture is the defense of the Denver Nuggets and is it real? Is it fake? I leaned heavily into that 2024 series and my big question for you in this series and you can convince me to change my pick to Denver if you do a good job. Who is going to guard Anthony Edwards and slow down Anthony Edwards in this series?
- [34:28]
A
Ecklo well, it's going to start with Christian Brown. It's going to be some if Peyton Watson's healthy. That's a big X factor coming off the bench and we might see some Watson plus Gordon minutes, which I like for Denver and has been wildly successful in limited minutes. But it's a team effort, right? So they're going to attack Jokic in the pick and roll a lot as every team does and Ant is really good at this. Watch for this one pick and Roll, though, like run first. First screen with Gobert, let's say Ant Gobert. Jokic comes out to the level of the screen. He's got his arms out. He likes to be aggressive against the pick and roll. He doesn't like to drop back, although they will do that some against Minnesota and have. And they will actually have him drop sometimes and help inside and dare Julius Randle to make shots. Big X factor in the series. The Wolves do not win this without an A minus, at least from Julius Randle. But that first pick and roll gets Jokic up. Ant will ping the ball back to Gobert and run right into a handoff and make Jokic defend two or three screens right in a row and change positions. And that's where they get him in some trouble sometimes. He's also going to go at Jamal Murray. He's going to go at Tim Hardaway Jr. And try to leverage that post game, try to leverage his force and physicality over them, draw the defense, dish it out and, and when the Nuggets do blitz him with Jokic, he's been pretty, pretty good all year about just making this simple play. Like if it's Gobert on the roll, fine. Trust Rudy to make the next play. We'll see how it. If it's just hit somebody on the wing to get the machine moving, the machine moves pretty well. So, I mean, I don't, I don't see any unexpected wrinkle there in terms of just like they need Ant to be toe to toe with Jokic as the best player in the series, they need Randle to have a good series and they need their role players to make a requisite number of threes because I could. Another thing they need to do, by the way, is Minnesota. If they're going to win, they are 25th in defensive free throw rate and Denver is fourth in offensive free throw rate. If Denver has an avalanche of free throws, that's a problem in Minnesota. You know, I could flip this around on you and say, how is Minnesota going to stop Denver's offense, the number one offense in the league, one of the 15 best offenses in the history of the NBA. And one ingredient for not doing that is fouling. And another is this is a team that can get sloppy with its transition defense and they're playing and absolutely lethal when they want to be transition team. So I would flip it around to you and say, how are the, how are the Wolves stopping Denver's offense?
- [36:52]
B
Well, I would say they can only hope to contain it. To paraphrase the old sports center bit. I don't know if anybody can stop this offense and I think Nicole Jokic of History is a guide is going to get his if history is a guide then I have for the biggest X factor here is Jalen is Jamal Murray versus Jaden McDaniels. So to me the answer here is Jaden McDaniels levels up and is able and we've seen this before to give Jamal Murray fits and then it puts more offensive burden on the edge for Denver. The last thing I'll say is I think they played each other in March. Aaron Gordon didn't play but it was pretty healthy teams except for Aaron Gordon and I think it was 326 to your point in transition. So if if Minnesota can get going on offense and start getting early offense against this team, particularly before Jokic can get back down the court and we have our attacking athletic wings, everybody From Randall to McDaniels and obviously the ant man attacking the teeth of the defense before it's set. I think there's a path for Minnesota to keep up with Denver. So those are my two big things. They have to be great in transition like they were in that March game and then they have to use Jaden McDaniels. He has to be effective to see a lesser version of Jamal Murray because you're exactly right. In a world where Joker and Murray are both going full speed, this team is unstoppable. So nobody's stopping Joker. But can Jaden McDaniels slow down Jamal Murray?
- [38:33]
A
That's a question for me and that's the more interesting end of the floor to me is that chess match between Minnesota's defense and Gobert in particular and Jokic and the Jokic Murray two man game. If you flash back to when the Wolves had Cat, they somewhat famously put Cat on Jokic and had Gobert on Aaron Gordon or a non shooter on the floor and just had him roam around. It's a strategy that Oklahoma City likes to imitate with Chet Holmgren not guarding Jokic and just roaming around. Cat's gone and Julius Randle can't guard Jokic so Gobert is typically on Jokic. There has been an exception. I'll get there in a second. And then you run into the Murray Jokic two man game and how they want to guard that and they're going to mix it up a lot. Sometimes they just let Murray drive and just they just basically hug. Yic say you're we're under no circumstances are we letting you pass the ball to him we're going to let you drive and then we're going to send help from everywhere else on the floor to try to contest you at the rim Jamal Murray or force you to kick it out to Christian Brown. And so that's sort of one strategy you'll see. Or if Jokic does catch a pocket pass, they'll do the same thing and say, we're not letting you shoot a floater. Here's 15 defenders flying at your face. And then when they post Jokic against Gobert, do they leave him single, covered? I think that's death. And he'll score 45 points. If they, if they. He's kind of figured out that matchup. Where do they help? Can they. Can he. They like to help, like from the blind side, from behind him a little bit. Can. Can they. Can they sort of rig it, rig it that way and then just if you go back and watch the Christmas game, just an interesting rink when jokic had like 50 something, an interesting wrinkle to watch. Fourth quarter and overtime of that game, they tried to sort of redo the Gobert as a Roamer strategy and they put Jaden McDaniels on Jokic and just said, front him, beat him up, Rudy, you're going to be elsewhere. And it took Denver a little bit of time to kind of figure that one out. And since then, tons of teams have put smaller guys on joke. It's. I think we'll see that as a little wrinkle. I think we'll see Jokic hide when he can hide on defense away from Gobert, like if, if, you know, I think Terence Shannon Jr. Is going to be part of the rotation for Minnesota. Wouldn't surprise me if they hide Jokic over there. Jalen Clark, if he plays, is a Murray stopper. I don't necessarily see that happening, but there's a lot of interesting wrinkles. Like bones Highland is a big X factor and I think Jamal Murray will go at him and Jamal has a nice little post op game. There's a lot of fun wrinkles and fun one on one matchups in this series. Like, does Gobert have to be on the floor? Every second that Jokic is on the floor is another question I have because who else is going to guard him? I think it's a, it's a, it's a really fun series in the end. It's just been such an up and down, weird year for Minnesota to the point that Chris Finch actually said we have to flip the switch now. I don't want to be a flip the switch team. But. Or switch but. But we have to. I think that's really hard to do against a Denver team that's humming like this. And if Peyton Watson comes back, I feel pretty good about Denver. I'm going to take Denver in six.
- [41:29]
B
Yeah, I think I made my choice for the content. I'm not going to show my cards, but I'll stick with it. I'll stick with it. I think Nikola Jokic is the best player in the series, but I wouldn't want to be the person to tell Anthony Edwards that. So I think Anthony Edwards would take a lot of pride in going in Denver and stealing Game one or Game two. Right. I could see that happening and that's the kind of stuff it's going to take. We're going to have to be on the Zach Lowe show on a morning being like, I can't believe ant man had 52 points and, you know, 12 assists and he hit 11 threes. Right. And that's one of the biggest things I'd give him credit for since the 2024 series is Anthony Edwards is a better player, especially as a jump shooter and a scorer. He's come a long way in that department. I think Nikola Jokic has never been more savvy. Almost an annoying he's learned the dark arts of foul baiting a little bit in the last few years, which could get Gobert or whoever they throw at him in foul trouble. But yeah, I got a lot of eggs in the Ant Man's basket heading into the series. I guess if I'm picking the Minnesota
- [42:39]
A
Timberwolves, they could definitely win the series. I mean, Minnesota has a ceiling that's pretty goddamn high and they've proven it in the playoffs the last two years. It's just been a weird season for them and, and we'll see sort of how much they show up. And if we get the Randle from the last six weeks, I think they're almost drawing dead in this series. Watch for Denver to play some zone as well here and there. So if they can rediscover the defense they played in the first 20 games, look out for the Nuggets. Okay, today's favorite first round series to watch was presented by State Farm. State Farm is there to assist in life's uncertain moments with neighborhood State Farm agents and easy to use digital tools like the State Farm Farm app. Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there with the assist. Coverage options are selected by the customer. Price and eligibility vary by state. Okay, on to entertaining Rank number two Series. I'm going east and I'm going Knicks hawks in the 36 series. A series that came together on a strange last day of the season. A lot of pressure on the Knicks, obviously, after firing Tom Thibodo, hiring Mike Brown, having their owner go on the radio and say we should not only make the Finals, that we should win the Finals. And the Hawks. One of the great stories of the last 40 games of the season has been have been as good as anybody in the east outside of Boston in that span. Weird, unpredictable, different kind of combinations of players. Wait this. Jalen Johnson's running pick and rolls with the small guys screening for him. They play super fast. They did a little wrinkle today. They announced Jock Landale, their backup center, is out for two weeks. So he'll probably miss the entirety of this series. Could be a big deal against particularly Mitchell Robinson and and the way the Knicks rebound the ball. Where do you want to start on this one?
- [44:15]
B
Well, I think a lot of this, these series don't have relevant regular season matchups, but we just saw these two teams play pretty healthy. And so I think it was a great game. It epitomized why I'm picking the Knicks. I think the best player in this series is Jalen Brunson. And we saw it. That was a classic. Give both teams 100 and put two minutes on the clock and see what happens. NBA game. And what happened was Jalen Brunson went and won the game and CJ McCollum just wasn't enough. And for me, that's where I would go right away. Zach and I I love what Atlanta's done since the All Star break. They are a different animal. Much like Charlotte sort of turned it around this year, but that's where I'm zeroing in as a clutch and Jalen Brunson and this core does deserve the respect for winning big games in the clutch. I think they were 21 and 13 in clutch games this year. And that's where I think there is a real weakness with Atlanta, especially on offense. So I'm picking the Knicks in large part because of close games at the end. I think they're going to be a lot of them. I just like the DNA at the end of games of the Knicks better.
- [45:21]
A
And Brunson is going to hunt and he's going to hunt CJ McCollum when the best lineups are on the floor. And that was the game winning shot he had. C.J. actually defended him pretty well. You're right about the clutch pedigree Right. Like where does Atlanta want to run its offense through? Bill has, Bill has talked about that a lot. Do we trust Jalen Johnson? Do we trust Atlanta shooting in general when they. Particularly when they play Kaminga, Jalen Johnson and sometimes Dyson Daniels. Altogether, the Knicks allow the second most threes in the entire NBA. Part of that is they've sort of made a deal with the devil. Like we're going to protect the rim. And if that's the cost, that's the cost. Is Atlanta the right team to exploit that kind of weakness? I'm. I'm interested to see game one possession one who is guarding cat because Onyeka Kongu has guarded cat for most of these matchups in the regular season, including the one you're referring to. And I just think every, every time the opposing team puts its center on cat and not Josh Hart, it unlocks the Brunson cat pick and roll. And that game was the second most pick and rolls. The Knicks ran with that combination the entire season. And it's just so much easier to get cat going with threes with rolls to the rim, blah, blah, blah. With the congu trying to drop. Sometimes they switched to try to prevent cat from shooting threes. And Jalen Brunson can cook a congu on switches. It just made me wonder, is Quinn Snyder saving a little bit of a card with putting a congu on Josh Hart and putting Jalen Johnson or somebody like that or Dyson Daniels on cat and getting a little more switchy? The Knicks know the counters to that. You just can use Josh Hart in the pick and roll and use Kat as a spacer like we, we. They understand that. But it's, it's has gummed them up in the past and made me kind of wonder, are they saving that card for this series if it happens? And now it's happening and on the other end the floor like the Knicks do the opposite. They put cat on Dyson Daniels like a lot of teams do, and they put wings onyeka Kongwu and can the Hawks exploit that? Dyson Daniels, one of the best screen setters in the entire NBA, just like flips, the angle of his screen, changes directions, slips out, then he sets a hard screen like he's very hard to pin down. And Atlanta's entire offense is very hard to pin down. They're fast, they're unpredictable, they make snap decisions when they come together and fly apart. And if you're not like dialed into what you're switching, what you're not switching, they get free pretty Easily. But I'm interested to see where Kat is defensively and who is on Cat on the other end of the floor. I think it's going to be like Atlanta is a feisty, together just hard to grasp kind of team. I think this is going to be a competitive series.
- [47:58]
B
Yeah, I agree. I think Atlanta will win one, two or three games in this series and you could see a world where they'd win four games. I mean, I think Quinn Snyder with the chance to really zero in on how to minimize Cat or defend the pick and roll with his incredible defensive options. By the way, Dyson Daniels one of the options. Nikhil Alexander Walker, Jalen Johnson, there's the Akongu himself. Just length everywhere, athleticism everywhere. And we're going from checkers to chess. And you're exactly right. Jalen Brunson in the pick and roll in that March game just diced up this defense both with Cat and Mitchell Robinson as his pick and roll partner in that game. I will give Quinn Snyder a little bit of grace here and expect him to be smarter about how he guards that action in a playoff series where that's all he has to wor for two weeks. And if he can slow that down, I think they have a chance because this team has again, the way you look at this since the All Star break, Zach Atlanta is fourth in net rating, 11th in offense and second in defense. The post Trey Young Atlanta Hawks are not the October Atlanta Hawks by any means. And people are going to see that on defense especially. Another thing I'd like to ask you about with the series. Both of these teams post Trey Young Hawks and the New York Knicks pride themselves on. On cleaning up the glass. And so I think a lot of this series is going to be won in those sort of unglamorous moments where a ball ricochets off the rim. Will Mitchell Robinson be able to do what he's done in big moments and just sort of torture an opponent with rebound after rebound after rebound or will the Hawks win that battle? And I think what you said at the beginning of the segment bears repeating. Jacques is not playing. Is that. Is that correct? We're not going to see him at all.
- [49:48]
A
I mean, they just said he's going to be re evaluated in two weeks. That came out right before it recorded. So they just signed Tony Bradley off the street. They play mo gay at backup 5 sometimes I think he's just too small for Mitchell Robinson. And Mitchell Robinson is maybe the biggest reason to have faith that the Knicks actually could make the Finals is That he's been pretty healthy and really, really productive all year, both alongside Cat. And when Brunson and Mitchell Robinson play together and Cat is resting, that's been very effective for them because it just simplifies their offense. But yeah, that the rebounding is a big, big X factor that the Hawks.
- [50:24]
B
Dude, I'll tell you the most impressive game I saw the next play all year was the NBA cup. And Kat also gets into foul trouble a lot. All right, so we know this. So he wishes they had eight fouls allowed, but they only have six. And in the world where that happens a lot, Mitchell Robinson becomes very important. But Mitchell Robinson in the NBA cup final in Vegas just absolutely deflated the Spurs. That young ascendant spurs team with what I'm describing, just oh my God, he got another rebound. The spurs were trying to get back in the game and it was just there were no stops because Mitchell Robinson kept giving them second and third chances. So I'm watching the rebounding a little bit too in this series, but I got the Knicks in seven.
- [51:07]
A
A couple other things to watch. Nixon seven. I like it. Game seven.
- [51:13]
B
Dude, I think that I. What's not to love? No column in the clutch is the reason. I mean and he's not bad. He's better than a lot of guys we're going to see try to win these games at the end.
- [51:21]
A
He's been a great acquisition for them. And it's. I've said this before, it's very hard to hide a bad or weak link perimeter defender against the Hawks and this reconfigured Hawks team to that point. If you're going to guard Dyson Daniels with Cat and that's going to be where you park Cat. You've. You've taken one of the safer hiding places. Although Dyson Daniels been amazing at manufacturing two point shots this year. And you're forcing Jalen Brunson to guard CJ McCollum and that I think plays into into the Hawks hands. A couple other things to watch. Can a congu hurt small guys in the post if the Knicks invert the matchups like that? We saw glimpses of that in that game and you mentioned Cat fouling. He's also falling a lot and the Hawks want to run and if you give them too much oxygen in transition, you turn a team that's pretty guardable in the half court. If you're diligent into one that can get you 10, 12 extra points before you know what happened and then they're in these games. I will go Knicks in six. I just think the Knicks are are better and deeper and have more optionality, particularly the deuces. McBride now is back as well. Okay, next series in the entertainment rankings. This might surprise you Kurt Goldsberry because it looks like a mismatch on paper and it probably is a Mismismatch. The number two seed San Antonio spurs against the new number seven seed Portland Trailblazers. I just think this series is kind of fun for a couple of reasons. Number one obviously the Wemby factor, his playoff debut and and on both sides of the floor. Does Portland guard him with Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams Jr. Or do they try to play around a little bit and hide those guys on Stefan Castle? That's not a great that hasn't worked very well but we've seen teams try it. Or Keldon Johnson, Harrison Barnes off the bench and try to put like a Jeremy Grant type on Victor Wembanyama. And on the other hand does Wemby guard clinging and Robert Williams and stick around near the rim and be in the pick and roll? Probably because those guys are rim bound guys cling and shooting more threes. Even Robert Williams shooting more threes. We'll see. Or do they try to hide him on like Tamani Kamara who's been pretty hot lately or Chris Murray or a guy like that and just say you you him around. It's also Scoot Henderson's playoff debut and this starting five that the Blazers have been using with Jeremy Grant and Shaden Sharpe coming off the bench now has been has been really good. And just between Jrue Holiday and Matisse Stibel and Chris Murray and who am I forgetting they have just an Tomani Camara. Obviously they have an army of perimeter defenders who can make life pretty tough for the spurs army of ball handling guards. But this just comes down to the simple a talent and B how can Portland score enough points to actually hang in the series? And that's the question I don't have an answer for.
- [54:11]
B
Oh well, that was my question for Zach Lowe. As God is my witness, I have the spurs and six I have the best players. Victor Womenyama My big question for Zach Lowe is how will Portland get to 100 points right there in my notes because Portland has the defense of a conference finalist. They are a very very physical, athletic defense. Tiago Splitter, by the way, what a job by the Spurs. Great.
- [54:35]
A
I'm glad you said that because new ownership in Portland, right just took over interim coach and I just hope they give him a real honest look at the permanent job because this team's solid, they play hard, they're weird in terms of their team construction and how. And they've had a lot of injuries and he's made the most of it. And they're the seventh seed. They're not going to win this series. But this is like an objectively very good outcome for them and a rising team. And I hope they give Thiago Splitter a real shot at the actual job.
- [55:07]
B
I'll go further. I hope they give him the job because what else could you have wanted from this team this year? This was supposed to be an in between year and they go into Phoenix and win the playing game. Now they're the seventh seed and he has something to build around. You have Denny in defense. So surround. We need a little more shooting, we need a little more offensive versatility. But yeah, I love Thiago Splitter. Maybe I'm biased. I don't know how The Blazers score 100 points. I have for the biggest X factor here, the officials on Denny's drives. And one of the biggest things we always say this time of year is what are the rules in NBA basketball? What is the content allowance? What's going to be a shooting foul in May compared to March. And Denny is a master at the dark arts of getting that whistle. There's a world where he gives the spurs headaches because he gets Wemby and foul trouble driving to the rim and colliding with him. Or there's a world where the refs are just like, we're not doing that this time of year. So I think that's a big X factor. If the spurs can protect the paint, which they can. I just don't see the perimeter offensive Portland being dynamic enough, Zach, to get to 110, 115 points and beat the Spurs.
- [56:25]
A
By the way, I should have mentioned this up top. Wemby missed all three games. The teams played together played against each other this season. So this is Wemby's like Portland and playoffs debut. Avdia obviously is the fulcrum of everything for the Blazers. I think it's going to be Castle guarding him primarily. And holy smokes, is that going to be fun. Just give me all of that matchup of Castle going, you know, punch for punch with Denny Abdia. He'll obviously try to hunt de' Aaron Fox. I mean, like, good luck with that with Wemby lurking behind you. And to your point about rim, the rim and the basket area, this is a. These are reasons to be also pessimistic. About the Blazers. The Blazers are a top 10 free throw team. The spurs defense has the lowest free throw rate allowed in the entire league.
- [57:09]
B
I had that. That was one of my big notes. Yeah, that's why I think the refs. What's going to happen with that exact thing? Are we going to hear whistles on that end of the court or not?
- [57:18]
A
The Blazers are fourth in the league in offensive rebounding primarily thanks to Donovan Klingan and they're actually not very good defensive rebounding team when he rests. The spurs are first in the league in defensive rebounding. So a strength of Portland again that they can neuter a little bit. The Blazers take the fifth most shots at the rim. The spurs allow the sixth fewest shots at the rim. And you'll be shocked to know that when B is on the court that number even goes down further. I just don't see any hope for Portland scoring enough points. Even though their shooting has been on a bit of an uptake. Even though Jeremy Grant just came back and made a bunch of big corner threes in that game in Phoenix. Even though Shaden Sharp is back, his three comes and goes. Even though Scoot Henderson's three looks much better. I just don't see how they score enough. I will give them a game and say spurs in five. I am tempted to say spurs in four, but I'll give the Port The Blazers again.
- [58:09]
B
Yeah, I think they're going to get a game. I have spurs in six. I think the spurs are going to learn a little bit in this this first two weeks of this real playoff run for them. The stat of the year for Victor Wembanyama. Defensive player of the year. Is it the only question is he going to be unanimous which he should be Is every NBA team this year? Zach Lowe has an effective field goal percentage between 52 and 58. Whenever Victor Wembanyama is on the court, the opponent's effective field goal Percentage is below 50. He is the most impactful. He turns every offense in the NBA phases into something less efficient than the Brooklyn Nets offense this year which is just a stunning demonstration of what's going to happen for the years to come. And we're not really good at quantifying defensive impact but he just, you know, he just takes away so many two point opportunities for for opponents. And again with Denny specifically as the offensive engine of Portland, I think that's especially relevant in this series.
- [59:15]
A
Good call on all fronts. We shall see. I'll give the Blazers a game series number four in my entertainment value Rankings. This may surprise you given the injuries, but I'm going Houston Lakers in the four or five series in the West.
- [59:27]
B
That does surprise me.
- [59:29]
A
No Luca for now. No Reeves for now. I am working under the assumption that they will not play in this series. We shall see. I would love to be wrong about that. Obviously I'm happy again that Luca was ruled eligible, as was Cade for all the offseason awards. Here's the reason why I have this on here. It's not just the classic like does LeBron have one last like I'm still LeBron James, I could carry us across the finish line by myself Series and him. I don't think that he does. It's more how are the Lakers undermanned going to try to junk this series up, Particularly on defense where they've been just throwing everything at the wall. Zones, switches and double teams, half zones, hybrid zones, man to man here and there. How are they going to junk it up defensively? Blitzes. Blitzes and force the Rockets to pass out of blitzes and sort of like okay Sengun, can you find Amanda Amen Thompson with this interior pass and then we're going to swarm him and can you blah blah. Can the Lakers junk it up and sort of nudge the Rockets offense to its worst and most stagnant impulses and actually make this somewhat of a series? And the Rockets have had an ugly crunch time offense all season. They play some lineups that are a little bit at a shooting deficit. I think they took the third fewest threes in the league and the Lakers and JJ Redick find a way to junk it up a little bit and ugly it up and just take away the easy stuff from the Rockets. I don't know but I'm interested to see.
- [60:58]
B
I'll be cynical. I think the Zach Lowe show needs me to be very cynical and negative about the Lakers right now. So that's what I'm going to do. I think the Rockets found something late in the year with Reed Shepherd. He finally got the third pick of
- [61:13]
A
the draft from last year who can make threes from 30ft away and is a really good passer. Yeah, I hope so. It's about time.
- [61:19]
B
And he deodorized that three point stank that this team has all year. But beyond that, bringing that hot run the Rockets had at the end of the season into this playoff series. The Lakers just don't have anybody at the point of attack who can do what other Western Conference teams will do. To read shepherd maybe later in this playoff run is just Punish him on defense and exploit him. I just don't think the Lakers can really leverage or arbitrage the Reed shepherd experience like better Western Conference teams.
- [61:53]
A
I mean, LeBron will try, right? We're going to see like if he's on, for instance, Canard has been starting. Now if Reed Shepherd's on Canard, I would almost put. Be tempted to put Reed shepherd anywhere but Canard. Just because if I'm the Lakers, I'm like, yeah, please guard our best shooter. And we can put you in two man games with LeBron and make you switch and rotate, but they'll try. But I, you know, LeBron is 41 years old and they don't really have a ton of great offensive talent around him right now.
- [62:19]
B
So I'm picking the Rockets. I gave the Lakers two games. I like Bill's joke that there's going to be one game with 61 Lakers free throws. Regardless, I think the best player in the series is Kevin Durant. My big question for you, Zach Lowe on this series, who will be the Lakers second best player in this first round series?
- [62:41]
A
So who are my choices dominating? Marcus Smart, Rui Hachimura, Jake Laravia, Bronnie James, Jackson, Hayes, Drew, Timmy. I will go with Rui Hachimura. I think him and Marcus Smart. We'll see if both of them start or if Laravia starts. I suspect both of them will start. Will start. They'll split the KD assignment. I think KD will be trying to hunt Luke Canard at all costs, just like the Lakers will be trying to hunt Reed Shepherd. I'll, I'll go with, I'll go with Riya tomorrow. I don't feel, I don't feel great about it. And we'll see. Like again, the Lakers will chuck it up. They'll put eight and Amen Thompson now and then and try to put Marcus Smart up in Shangun's shit and switch everything and just. The Rockets just should have enough solves to make this a relatively easy. Not, I mean easy in terms of length. I think some of the games could get like a little 106, 101 rockets just sneak it out. I will go, I'll go Rockets in five. I'll go a little, I'll go a little shorter. They've been playing well lately and obviously that is asterisks depending on Luca and Reeves.
- [63:57]
B
Yeah. And I think to go Back to the 40 minute game thing, another reason to have 40 minute games in the NBA is the calf strain and hamstring epidemic that is killing the league and killing players like Austin Reaves and Luka doncic. You know, 40 minute games. We have less injuries. That's, that's rocket science. No pun intended. But yeah, this is a series that would have been freaking awesome if everybody's healthy. And it kind of feels shitty that we're sitting here being like, well, maybe the Spanish hamstring treatment is going to get to enable, you know, Luka Doncic to come back. But you're right. I reserve the right to change my prediction if I start to see Luka Doncic getting closer and closer to coming back because that would be awesome. Even just give me Luca in this series and I would have a different answer. I could see this being a sweep if none of those guys play, but I'm saying Rockets in five or six.
- [64:54]
A
I still don't really understand why the spurs didn't try to hammer Denver down into the fourth seed on the last day of the season. The Rockets say more has been has been have been gifted the easiest possible route. If they win this series, it's going to allow them to sort of maybe postpone some of the harder choices they have to look in the mirror and face because of how up and down and weird and wonky the season has been at times. Obviously Van Vlietz missed the whole season. Steven Adams has been out for a while. Those are big things. Finney Smith has given them zero. I just, I don't know why wemmy didn't play that last game. I would have tried to hammer Denver down out of my half of the bracket but here we are.
- [65:31]
B
Here we are. I think that's a great point. And as a Spurs homer former employee, I don't have a good answer for it. It's sort of annoying to me too.
- [65:40]
A
Just a couple other notes on the series. Rockets number one in offensive rebounding so the Lakers will be tested there without Reeves and Doncic. Much harder for the Lakers to get to like viable small ball lineups with Rui or LeBron at the 5, which is a look they'd like to go to now and then. Just worth noting in about 500 minutes this year. I don't know how relevant it is LeBron without Reeves and Luca According to Cleaning the glass, Lakers plus 11 and a half per hundred possessions did not expect that when I looked it up. I don't expect it to sustain against a team that can throw. Durant will guard LeBron a lot. Jabari Smith Jr. Will guard LeBron. They'll switch Tari Eason onto him when they don't have Reed shepherd on the floor. Just going to switch everything and just make it very difficult. Rockets in five. Okay.
- [66:24]
B
Yeah. And for all one. One more note for all the consternation about the Rockets offense, they ended the year as the number eight offense in the NBA. Just throwing that out there.
- [66:33]
A
They did. All right, let's take one last break. We have two series to go, including what I will call the Indiana Pacers Memorial NBA TV series, which will be the least entertaining of the six. We'll be right back with Kurt Goldsberry. This episode is brought to you by Michelob Ultra. When you pull off a superior play, like blocking a winning shot to push the game into overtime, it feels good. It even gives you shivers sometimes. All the best moms are served ice cold like that. Just like Michelob Ultra, the official beer partner of the NBA. Ultra is a superior light beer with only 95 calories and a crisp, refreshing taste. And you know what makes it even more superior? Michelob Ultra is giving fans like you the chance to win some incredible prizes, including courtside seat tickets. Michelob Ultra Superior is worth playing for. Enter now@michelob ultra.com Courtside Michelob Ultra Courtside 25 to 26. No purchase necessary. Open US residents 21 or over. Begins on October 1, 2025, and ends on June 30, 2026. Multiple entry period. See official rules@michelobaltra.com Courtside for free entry, entry deadlines, prizes and details.
- [67:34]
B
No one goes to Hank's for his spreadsheets. They go for a darn good pizza. Lately, though, the shop's been quiet, so Hank decides to bring back the $1 slice. He asks co pilot in Microsoft Excel to look at his sales and costs and help him see if he can afford it. Copilot shows Hank where the money's going and which little extras make the dollar slice work. Now Hanks has a line out the door. Hank makes the pizza. Co pilot handles the spreadsheets. Learn more@m365copilot.com Work
- [68:07]
A
series number five, an old school Eastern Conference clash. Give me highlights of the Boston Strangler. Andrew Toney. Give me Wilt versus Russell. Give me Tatum versus Harden. Wait, that happened at one point. It didn't go well. Embiid. I mean, we're not going to get Embiid. Probably Appendicitis. Just unbelievable. Unbelievable that in the span of two years and three playoff seasons, Bell's palsy and appendicitis have struck one of the most skilled and monstrous players in the history of the NBA. Jason Tatum missed all four regular season games between the Celtics and the Sixers. Paul George also missed all four. So throw those games in the trash. Boston, number two in offense, number four in defense against the Sixers, likely without Joel Embiid. Just, you know, can you, can you talk me into how did the Sixers make this a series?
- [69:03]
B
Not without Joel Embiid. No way. It's that simple. I have the Celtics in 5.5 games. The 05 is for the uncertainty around Joel Embiid. I have the best player as Jason Tatum, which is controversial. Some people might say that he's not even the best player on his own team anymore. But regardless, I think the biggest question obviously is, will Joel Embiid play any games this series?
- [69:27]
A
Eklo, I mean, based on what I read about appendicitis timetables, I'm again going to just assume no. But I would love to see him play because I don't think without him that they have nearly enough juice to compete with the Celtics. And it's just such a heavy lift for Maxi and Edgecomb, who, by the way, Edgecombe, had a couple of massively awesome self created buckets in the lane last night against Orlando. You know, Paul George had to ISO, you know, try to hunt some switches and take 18 foot fadeaways over smaller guys. It's just, it's hard work without that gear, without that element of the offense. I think they're minus 3 per 100 possessions for the season when Maxi plays without Embiid. Something like that. I do. Maxi has kind of turned the corner on the Celtics and he averaged 30 a game this year. His speed gives them problems in, in past matchups. Again, we haven't seen the fully healthy Celtics against the fully healthy Sixers this year. And so as a result, the bulk of the Maxi assignment has gone to guys like Hugo Gonzalez, Baylor, Scheierman. And in a landmark Boston win, Jordan Walsh played like, made the name. Basically made his rotation spot by guarding Tyrese Maxey. Right now none of those guys are in the starting five. And so I'm just sort of curious. I, my guess is Derek White will start on him because it's, it's White, Brown, Tatum, Houser, who I think Maxi will try to hide on on the other end, and Keita. So that, that's at least, you know, an interesting wrinkle to start with is like, who guards Maxi? Where does Maxi try to look for his offense? He'll try to hunt Hauser, I would imagine, and invite Boston to switch. It's just going to be tough sledding.
- [71:09]
B
It's going to be tough sledding. Was tough sledding for Philly against Orlando last night. It was a decent defense, but Boston's a better defense. And what I have in my notes is like this is a classic two versus seven. And even if Joel Embiid were healthy, I want to be clear I would pick the Celtics pretty easily in this series. Maybe not four or five games, but six or seven. And he's not. And so I think the Celtics enter the series as the better offense, one of the best offenses in the NBA. I'm not sure that the Sixers will be able to slow that down by any means. And then on the other side of the court, I think the Celtics enter the series as a top five defense. And I'm not sure the Maxi Edgecomb, Paul George offense will be able to do anything significant against this really cohesive great rebounding defense that Boston has put together again as they reinvented their front court on the fly this season. And great job by by Joe Missoula Ultimately, I agree this is not going to be very entertaining. Not because there's not good players on both teams, but just because one team is so, so much superior and so deep compared to the other couple.
- [72:18]
A
Other interesting things. Boston gives up the most threes in the league by design and they, they skew above the break obviously also by design. Philly does not take a lot of threes, so they're not really built to exploit what is not really a weakness but is a design feature of Boston's defense. Philly also gives up a lot of threes on defense and boy do the Celtics like to play teams who give up a lot of threes. And I think, you know, Boston is absolutely merciless when they have when they smell blood in the water. And Maxey, as I said earlier, has really made a jump defensively. He's just undersized going up against Tatum and Brown and they're going to find him wherever he is and whatever other weak link they think they can find on defense, maybe put Drummond in the pick and roll in open space. But if Maxi's on Hauser or Gonzalez or Shireman or wherever he is, they're going to bring him up and they're going to put him in the action. If he's on Peyton Pritchard, that's a big problem for the Sixers because that unlocks a really deadly two man game between the Jays and Peyton Pritchard or the Jays and Derrick White. And Boston is also like an Elite, elite, elite transition defense team. And Philly with BJ and Tyrese Maxey and I refuse to fucking call them BJ Max because it sucks is they need to fly in order to have a chance in these games. And they will fly. They're like Vijay Edgecomb is already top five transition player in the NBA. Like he's utter, utterly uncontainable in the open floor. The combination of speed and like a surprising amount of power and verticality. But the Celtics are just such a disciplined machine of transition defense. So those are some of the things I'm watching. It's also a. Vuch began his career with the Sixers coming full circle and wow. I think this is maybe like a good the Vuch Garza question. Like I haven't loved the Vucci experience for Boston. I actually think Garza has been better than him. This is kind of a good dip your toe in the water series for Vuch because you have just a bear of a rebounder in Drummond and someone who just needs to be boxed out. And I think that that is why they got Vucovic and just always going to be interesting to see does he make enough threes that the defense actually responds to him popping for three? Do they rotate another guy at him? Do they switch? Do they? Because if I were coaching against the Celtics, I would not, I would just let him shoot semi contested threes. But those are the, some of the, some of the things I'm looking for ultimately like no Embiid. I just think no, no shot.
- [74:46]
B
Yeah, there you go. I was talking to one coach about the Celtics the other day and he was saying like one of the, one of the good things Joe Missoula is really good at is not just putting a weak link defender at the point of attack and attacking, but to put him where he would need to rotate in an off ball role. And I think there are so many weak links. What you're talking about, Drummond or whoever, just Joe is just Missoula is going to be able to exploit these weaknesses and get that spin cycle going and we're going to see a lot of open threes from the Boston Celtics.
- [75:18]
A
But I'm glad you brought up Drummond again because it's so funny how his career has evolved. So when Bona's on the floor and holy smokes, Bona, I thought Bono was going to smash the glass on the backboard.
- [75:28]
B
I thought there was going to be a fight last night when he was out there.
- [75:31]
A
I mean he, I thought he was going to deflate the basketball. He smashed it so hard against the backboard when he's out there. He's a traditional pick and roll dive guy.
- [75:40]
B
Yeah.
- [75:40]
A
They've turned Drummond into. Just stand in the corner and get out of the way and let our guards have the floor to isolate or let Paul George isolate against a smaller guy. I, I'm very curious to see how Missoula responds to that. Like, does he just put. If you're going to do that with Andre Drummond, is he just going to put like a guard on Andre Drummond and have Keda somewhere else? He's not, he's not falling for any of that. Because Missoula is also the meanest, cruelest coach at. If we think you have a non shooter on the floor anywhere, we are not going to guard that guy like at all. It's. And, and Drummond has been a decent corner three point shooter. I don't think the Celtics are going to care. I don't think they're going to be like, all right Nemes, Katie, you've got to be like a little just outside the paint. I think they'll just be like, you do, do whatever you want over there and we'll see. But it's interesting how Drummond has evolved in that sense and it fits how these fast guards want to play. Just clear the lane, unclutter the lane and let these guys, let these guys fly. All right, one more series to go. You ready?
- [76:41]
B
I am. So is it fair to say that you have Cavs, Raptors as the lowest ranked series?
- [76:48]
A
I do. Which is. I think, look, I'm a sucker for a good 80s NBA rivalry, Boston, Philly. I'm a sucker for just like I, I'm just continually fascinated by how Tatum looks and now we're going into the playoffs and so that's sort of a subplot and I don't like. I think if we are awarding the NBA TV Indiana Pacers Memorial NBA TV series, you. Because there was always one like Pacers, Hawks was just like a lock for like 6pm NBA TV. It's not going on national TV. I guess that's technically national TV. It can't be like a big market team like the Lakers or the Celtics or the Knicks. I just think you're banned from putting the top seeds. So it can't be Detroit. Detroit, whoever. And. And obviously not Oklahoma City, San Antonio. I think this would have to be. I think this would have to be the one. Apologies to my brothers to the north. It's also just, it's a weird. Toronto is a weird team. They're just big and they hunt mismatches. And Cleveland's a weird team in that they have to decide how often do we want to play Mobley and Allen together against what lineups do we want to play them together? And the one thing I don't want to hear to Toronto people are going 3, 0. We swept Cleveland in the regular season. They were all in the fall. Harden played none of them. Mitchell played, missed one of them. Jared Allen missed two of them. Completely meaningless. I just think this could be kind of a slow, methodical series on both ends of the floor in terms of just Harden sifting around trying to find where to attack the Raptors defense. The Raptors trying to. Okay, where's Scotty? Can we get Scotty into a mismatch? Can we get bi into a mismatch? Particularly when the Cavs are small and have only one big guy. I just don't feel like this is going to be super fun to watch. Despite some star power,
- [78:41]
B
I'm. Maybe I'm more into it than you. I think the Cavs are going to win this series. But I'm excited to see this young Raptors group and the ferocious defense they have really throw everything at this offense, which hasn't had a lot of time together, obviously, since acquiring James Harden. And all the guys have been in and out of the lineup. So I think the Raptors are going to have a chip on their shoulder. I think they're going to want to play as hard and as fast as they can against sort of an older team, especially with Harden on the floor. I'm picking the Cavs in six. I think the best player in the series is Donovan Mitchell. And my big question for us, Zach Lowe, is do you think Scotty and Ingram will be able to be effective scorers against this exact Cavs defense?
- [79:31]
A
I do. I do think so. I mean, effective is a relative term. I think they'll be fine. Mobiley. I think we'll get to Scotty Barnes assignment a lot, if not all the time. But the Cav, the Raptors are going to be smart about using him as a screener in the pick and roll. Using as the ball handler, trying to hunt, you know, streuss, Mitchell, Harden trying to get mismatches. And then you just, then you just start going through the math like who's guarding Brandon Ingram when the starters are in the floor. If Mobley is on Barnes and Allen is on Purdle, who's guarding Ingram? Is it Dean Wade? Is he. Is he going to start the series as the fifth starter? I think he probably will, but they'll go smaller than that a lot. And can Brandon Ingram just manufacture some buckets over Max Strust? Donovan Mitchell. Sam Merrill has guarded Brandon Ingram a lot. I think the Cavs are like fine with that. Like Brandon Ingram, you go ahead, man. You want to take a bunch of mid range isos over our guys. Like we're going to live with that. But I think, I think they'll make a fair bit. And then it just becomes interesting to me like what kind of lineups do the Raptors play? Do they play less Pearl and more like Scotty Barnes and Mamu? Scotty Barnes and Colin Murray Boyles. And how do the Cavs respond to that? I think there's some interesting chess matches but like flip it around. The Raptors have a very good fifth in defense for the year for the Raptors is super impressive. RJ Barrett has been the primary guy on Donovan Mitchell. Unlimited action, obviously. And if you Barnes is on Mobley, who's guarding James Harden? I don't know the answer to that question. We'll see. Scotty Barnes has guarded him some. Jamal Shed has guarded Donovan Mitchell quite a bit and done pretty well against him. And he's also guarded Harden a little bit. Murray Boyles can guard anybody. I just for the Raptors quickly is dealing with this hamstring thing. We'll see if he plays or not. Obviously the Cavs will go at him, but if the Raptors have to play Shed more and Murray Boyles more, can they score enough dang in these games? I don't know the answer to that, but they do need to get turnovers from Cleveland and Cleveland's transition defense has been like average to slightly below average and a little bit worse, not surprisingly, since Harden came aboard. So like if you want to open the door to Toronto, that's a good way to do it is give them free points in transition because that's. They want to press you, they want to put pressure on you, they want to run you off the line. They want to make you throw a lot of passes under duress and get out in transition. And Cleveland, you know, just be a careful. That's all I'm saying.
- [81:53]
B
Yeah, I think Toronto can muck it up. I think on one end of the court when Cleveland has the basketball and Toronto's playing defense, it's going to be a really high level series. Those are both great units. But I think on the other end, specifically something you brought up, which I think is smart to watch, is are we going to finally see Jared Allen and Evan Mobley playing a lot of basketball together because that gives Cleveland, I think, their most competent defensive look, especially against a team that can't shoot very well. And so Toronto, I think is fourth in the NBA in points in the paint per game. They need to get to the rim to be effective on offense. And if you can take that away like this too, big lineup in theory can do. And if you look at the numbers of Jared and Evan together, the defensive rating for Cleveland in those at 41 games or 2714, it's, it's 639 minutes, Zach. That defensive rating goes 108.2, which is about the best you're going to see out of a Cleveland team this season. Jared Allen, to me, is the biggest X factor not only for the series but for these playoffs for Cleveland. He hasn't been a great postseason player. I think that's fair to say. His health has been up and down. But if he can, if he can snap into form and let Evan Mobley sort of roam around and be the free range, free safety type defender, I think Cleveland could, could be who they thought they were going to be at the beginning of the season and not only win this series pretty easily, but give teams in the second, maybe in third round, some, some, some trouble.
- [83:27]
A
Cleveland is just sort of existing under the radar and they have as high a ceiling almost as anyone in the East. There's just a lot. I'm not, I don't want to say a lot not to trust, but there's Harden's playoff track record. There's this team's playoff track record of being out toughed when, when things get, when adversity strikes, whether it's Mitchell Robinson just murdering them under a pile of offensive rebounds, whether it's a couple injuries strike them in the Pacer series and they just seem to lose their, their cool and let go of the rope a little bit and start blaming other outside factors. And woe is usually there's the lack of minutes that the core four guys have played together. Now I do think this is a good double big series for Cleveland, like a good starting place for them. If Barnes Purdle, that's a good, you know, Mobley can guard Barnes, Allen can guard Portal, or they'll flip it around sometimes and have Jared Allen guard Scotty Barnes and just sit back. They will dare Scotty Barnes to shoot. They're going to go way under all the screens for Scotty Barnes. Scotty Barnes and cmb. CMB and Purdle. Those are all pretty like interior Oriented lineups that you can go too big against gets a little interesting. Like if they ever just go Scotty at center with perimeter players or Scotty and Mamu Brandon Ingram at the four with one of the centers that then you might see the one big lineup. So I think this is like a good stable defensive starting point for Cleveland. That said, I think Toronto's size and ferocity if quickly can play, I think they might be a little bit more competitive in this series than people are giving them the credit for. They have some levers to pull that can stress Cleveland out. And if there's one series that just as an objective fan, I'm rooting for the underdog to steal game one or game two on the road, it's this one. Because I want to see how Cleveland responds right away to like, all right, we're in Toronto. This crowd's insane. We're under an enormous amount of pressure. We played the most, paid the most luxury tax in the league. We traded our 26 year old point guard for a 36 year old point guard. But like it's win now and all of we have this history, this baggage and we got to deal with it right away. I kind of want to see that.
- [85:38]
B
Yeah, I do too. And they're a five seed. They deserved it. They held off some really ascendant teams at the end of the season, namely Atlanta for that fifth position. They were winning all year. This isn't a seven seed, this isn't an eight seed. And the east is deeper than I think you or I thought it would be six months ago. And, and when you have a five seed against the four seed, I think it's that simple sometimes. Like you shouldn't expect the four seed to walk all over the five seed. I'd put Cleveland in this category of teams trying to sort of build the plane in the air at the hardest time of the year to do that. Oh, we're finally healthy. We finally got Minnesota's trying to do that. And I think on the other side Cleveland is trying to do that and that doesn't always work. Sometimes a player gets re injured who's coming back. Sometimes there's just not that cohesion that it takes time to build, especially when you're trying to get James Harden assimilated on the fly. So I do think there are cracks in the Cavs foundation and it's a lot to ask to assume they're going to go ahead and win four of these games in a row. So I think Toronto has a better chance than, than most People, did you
- [86:42]
A
make a pick yet? I can't remember.
- [86:44]
B
I have picked the Cavaliers in six
- [86:46]
A
games so I haven't picked a seven game series yet. You picked Hawks Nicks in seven, right?
- [86:51]
B
I picked Hawks Nicks and then I have my upset my Wolves pick for the good of the Zach Low show.
- [86:58]
A
I want to pick Cleveland in six, but I'm going to have fun and say I'm going to pick Cleveland in seven. I'm going to say Toronto pushes them the distance the way Orlando did a couple of years ago. This is just other than the Miami series last year where like I don't even know what happened. The Cavs shot 900% from three and Miami just died. So the team that doesn't make their life easy in the playoffs, I'll say Toronto gets under their skin a little bit and it makes it a long series. But Cleveland wins. All right, so to review, we are both picking Charlotte and Golden State in the playing games. Yeah. I'm 3:1 in my play in picks so far. I foolishly picked the Magic to win in.
- [87:36]
B
Idiot.
- [87:37]
A
Yeah, I know. And then I'm going to Minnesota. Denver in six. You're going Wolves in seven.
- [87:44]
B
Yes.
- [87:46]
A
I'm going Knicks in six over the Hawks. You're going Knicks in seven.
- [87:51]
B
I am.
- [87:52]
A
I am going Cleveland in seven over the Raptors. You're going Cleveland in six.
- [87:58]
B
I am. Yes.
- [88:00]
A
I'm going spurs in five over the Blazers. You went spurs in.
- [88:05]
B
I went six. Maybe that's a reverse jinx and I want these boys to learn a little bit.
- [88:10]
A
Rockets in five over the Lakers. What were you again?
- [88:15]
B
I think I had six. But five seems right. If after we've talked it through, I
- [88:21]
A
don't know if I made a pick in Boston Philly, but I'm gonna go Boston and five.
- [88:25]
B
Did I say that? That sounds right to me too. Zach. I don't wanna be too controversial, especially with no Joel Embiid and again yes
- [88:33]
A
injury related exceptions and there are inj always going to be plot twists. This is the playoffs. This is the best. Like these, these Saturday and Sundays coming up are we get to see there's no more messing around. Whatever you don't, coaches are not going to hold stuff for Game 3 or 4 of a playoff series. They're going to do what they think is best option. Step one strategy right away in game one and then counter from there and that the chess match is going to begin. Even if some of these series don't look competitive, they're going to be fun to see how coaches sort of conceive of how to adjust what players weaknesses are exploited, what players show us stuff that maybe we didn't think they had. And then we'll get one or two series that go longer than expected and get crazy and we'll see what happens. And then the second round is shaping up to be absolutely epic. But the journey, the regular season slog is over and the playoffs are here. Kurt Goldsberry, any parting thoughts on what we have seen in the play in and or the play in matchups or the Cade and Luca news that hit while we were recording?
- [89:35]
B
Oh, that's good. No, my parting thought is, man, this is a big game for Paolo Banchero coming up. If you want something else to talk about on Friday, this guy has to play really well. I think he's the most interesting player. Before we get to the weekend, I'm
- [89:50]
A
glad that you brought that up because we talked a lot about Miami and their off season decisions. We talked about the Clippers and the lottery gods and what has to happen for them and what it would just clusterfuck this year has been on every front and we talked about that with Orlando. But the stakes if this team misses the playoffs.
- [90:10]
B
Right.
- [90:12]
A
What an all time bad catastrophe of a season for a team that had a 50 and a half over under, traded four first round picks for Desmond Bain, got a good Desmond Bain season and is just mired in this, whatever this is. Everyone will focus on Mosley. Rightfully so if they lose this game, even if they win and get rolled in the first round.
- [90:34]
B
Right.
- [90:35]
A
All bets are off to me across the board. If they lose to Charlotte like all like Paolo trade, Franz trade, like everything is on the board to me. And so yeah, those are the stakes because if that team gets lapped by Charlotte, Toronto, Philadelphia with their health issues, Atlanta, Atlanta, like that's just flat out embarrassing for everybody involved.
- [91:02]
B
Yeah, I mean an Atlanta team that sort of blew itself up in the middle of the year. This was supposed to be a three seed, right? Best young ascendant team in the east and here we are. If they don't make the playoffs. I couldn't agree more. I think the front office should be worried. I think the roster should be insecure and I think obviously the coaching staff is. So yeah, I mean that's a really high stakes game and, and, and I think you alluded to this earlier but maybe they've already had their last stand. Maybe with the, the people there have already seen what they wanted to see and they've seen enough. But dude, yeah, this this Charlotte game, it could be a real sort of ribbon on the top. What am I trying to say? The cherry on top of the. The bad Sunday for this season for the Magic.
- [91:43]
A
By the way, do you think Lamelo should have been suspended? Were you surprised he wasn't?
- [91:47]
B
Dude, kind of. When I was. When I saw SPO go to the ca. The post game because he doesn't do that shit and he said all that, I was like, okay, I've never seen him that fired up and bam deserves better. We don't want to set a precedent that it's okay to do that to a star player in this league. So yeah, I'm kind of surprised we didn't see more from the league on that one.
- [92:09]
A
Oh yeah, it's gonna be a fun game to watch. And like I like before the season when the Giannis stuff was already out of control, I floated Paolo for Giannis as a fun trade construction. Obviously you'd have to add a lot to Palo even then. And then I corrected myself because Paolo's been. Was poison pilled this year because of his contract extension kicking in, which is. It's very. Just mathematically hard to trade. Well, that poison pill expires once the season is over. But like if I'm Milwaukee, is that that interesting to me anymore? And you can't add that much because you traded so many picks for Bane. It just, it's just the. It's just a mess. But you know, those. Franz and Paolo just haven't. The Magic have looked their best this year with Bain, Suggs Black, one of the two forwards and a center. And they can't play Palo at the five. They don't trust it defensively, which would be a way to get all five of those players on the floor. And they just seem still 82 games later, 83 games later, still just confused about how does all this work. So that's the stakes for Friday. Kurt Goldsberry, you wrote a big piece on theringer.com that we should have already talked about about sort of what net rating and other stats tell us about the predictive value of who could win the title. Do you want to. Do you want to talk about that piece at all real quick?
- [93:25]
B
Yeah, it's sort of an extension of stuff that I stole from you 10 years ago, which is like, hey, what are the regular season key metrics? So the Dean Oliver, the. The net rating, offensive rating, defensive rating, spoiler alert. Net rating is very predictive. That's good news for the Celtics and the Pistons and the Thunder and The spurs and shooting is the other one that I would say if you can't shoot, you're not going to win this tournament. That's bad news for the Pistons. So I think that if you look at history as a guy, there are three clear favorites. The Thunder, the Spurs and the Celtics right now. And I think that smells right. And for me it just feels like this is the Thunders year to, to win again. I'm not predicting they will easily, but the stats from the regular season seem to suggest that they're. They're most likely to win it all.
- [94:15]
A
Yeah, I had a very smart front office guy say to me yesterday I think there are only three teams and maybe just two that can win the title. Thunder, Spurs, Celtics. And I immediately said don't, don't take the Nuggets out of that group. I did not get scored too on Detroit. Is it fair? Like we didn't, we didn't mention them at all because they don't have a set playoff matchup yet. I mean I think whoever faces the Thunder, I will pick Thunder in four or five, probably four. Pistons, Hornets just can, can we, can the basketball guys just give us that. That's what we need. I don't want to watch Pistons, Magic. It's going to be ugly and sloggy and physical and foully and every game will take three hours. Give me Pistons, Hornets, Diabate, Duran, Lamelo against that front line. Just give that. The world needs to see that. That's what we need.
- [95:02]
B
Yeah, that offense versus that defense. There's some bad blood there. I was going to say, you know, at the NBA TV Indiana Pacers Memorial Series. I do think it could be a one seed in a world where either Phoenix or Orlando wins these last games and we have Detroit versus Orlando. That would be an NBA TV candidate. And I also think OKC Phoenix could be an NBA TV candidate. So that's another reason I'm rooting for the road teams on Friday. Zach Lowe. But yeah, I want, I wanted to see Charlotte in the playoffs like a lot of us since March. And so yeah, Detroit's the only way they can get there. I'd love to see the Detroit Pistons incredible defense with a healthy Cade Cunningham take on this ascendant Charlotte team.
- [95:47]
A
I'll just say this. If that's what we get, I think that's going six at least. That's all I'll say. But we'll see what, we'll see what we get. Kurt Goldsberry, you're the man. Thanks for your time, bud.
- [95:56]
B
Thank you brother. Enjoy the playoffs
- [96:01]
A
all right, that's it for today's edition of the Zach Lowe Show. Enjoy the weekend. The craziness is here. Four games Saturday, four games Sunday. I will be back early next week on Tuesday as usual to break down everything that's happened in the playoffs. Look ahead to the key games coming up. Thank you to the great Kurt Goldsberry for helping us preview all the action. Thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production and thanks to you all for listening to and or watching the Zach Lowe show. Enjoy the playoffs. 21 or over and President select states for Kansas in affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President, D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or 1-800-MY RESET. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chatincenetic or is it mdgamblinghelp.org and Maryland? Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY in New York. For Louisiana, call 1-877-770-7867.