The Zach Lowe Show — NBA Playoff Preview Guide With Kirk Goldsberry
Episode Air Date: April 16, 2026
Host: Zach Lowe
Guest: Kirk Goldsberry (ESPN analyst, stats guru)
Episode Overview
Zach Lowe and Kirk Goldsberry deliver an in-depth, rapid-fire breakdown of the upcoming NBA Playoffs. They review play-in tournament drama, react to breaking All-NBA eligibility news, debate regular season reforms, and preview each first-round series with tactical Xs & Os, predictions, and plenty of spicy takes. This episode is designed as your all-in-one playoff companion, offering both big-picture insight and granular analysis for diehard hoop fans.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Play-In Tournament Review and Takeaways
Play-In Tournament Recap:
- Discussed the chaos and excitement of the play-in so far, highlighting the intensity compared to the regular season.
- Notable Games: Charlotte-Miami ("drunkest game of the season" – 03:32), Golden State’s vintage Steph & Draymond performance, and Orlando’s collapse in Philly.
The Play-In Energy:
- The play-in already “feels like a different sport”—stakes, crowds, and intensity are at another level compared to the regular season. (09:12)
Memorable Quote:
"The regular season is never going to feel like this... But there is a big gap." —Zach (09:25)
Biggest Crises Out of the Play-In:
- Orlando: “It's not close for me. Orlando is the biggest crisis… If they lose to Charlotte, it's going to be a really dark, really newsworthy spring and summer in Orlando.” —Kirk (17:56)
- Miami & Clippers: Facing big offseason decisions, but not at Orlando’s level of existential angst.
2. Breaking News: All-NBA Award Eligibility
Major Update (Live Reaction):
- Luka Doncic and Cade Cunningham both win their appeals on the 65-game rule, making them eligible for All-NBA/MVP awards. Anthony Edwards’ appeal is denied. (11:26)
- Sparks conversation about how this undermines the league's own rules and process.
Memorable Quote:
"This is the NBA shitting on a rule that it made up... Have a backbone. I'm glad they won. But you don't even have a backbone to defend it..." —Zach (12:41)
3. The “Regular Season Problem”: Solutions and Ideas
Main Issue:
- The regular season lacks stakes and intensity compared to the play-in/playoffs.
Proposed Solutions:
- Kirk: Dramatically reduce the schedule, e.g., to 62 games if/when the league expands to 32 teams. (10:00)
- Zach: Add more scarcity, further anti-tank reforms, consider creative tweaks like reducing games to 40 minutes, or letting top seeds pick their opponents. (14:57)
4. Upcoming (Friday) Play-In Games Preview & Predictions
Phoenix Suns vs. Golden State Warriors
- Both pick Golden State for “one more night of magic” thanks to the championship DNA—Steph, Draymond, Porzingis, and Al Horford (Steph’s chemistry with Draymond praised).
- Key: Can Phoenix's improved defense force turnovers vs Warriors’ turnover-prone attack? (24:49)
- Prediction: Warriors win, steal the 8th seed. (25:24)
Orlando Magic vs. Charlotte Hornets
- Both skeptical Orlando’s offense can keep up with Charlotte’s 3-point shooting if the Hornets merely have an average night. (27:28)
- Noted the potential meltdown if Orlando loses—a franchise-altering game.
- Prediction: Charlotte wins on the road. (29:53)
5. Deep Dive: First Round Series Previews, Insights & Picks
A. Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets ("Series of the Round")
- Third consecutive postseason meeting ("Denver-Minnesota III"). Minnesota believes their offense (and Anthony Edwards’ leap) can finally overwhelm Denver’s shaky D. (33:47)
- X-Factors: Who can guard Anthony Edwards? (Jaden McDaniels on Jamal Murray could swing things.)
- Jokic vs. Gobert matchup—Minnesota sometimes tries to “hide” Gobert away from Jokic; chess match in the making.
- Pick: Kirk—Wolves in 7 (“for the content”); Zach—Denver in 6 (best player, defending champ edge). (41:28)
B. New York Knicks vs. Atlanta Hawks
- Knicks have the proven clutch scorer (Brunson) and advantage on the boards (Mitchell Robinson crucial with Landale out for ATL). (45:21)
- Atlanta’s improved defense and unpredictability are real but scoring in the clutch remains an issue.
- “Jalen Brunson went and won the game” (Knicks as safe clutch bet: 21-13 in the clutch).
- Pick: Zach—Knicks in 6; Kirk—Knicks in 7. (51:12)
C. San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
- Spurs debut Wembanyama in the playoffs after he missed all games vs. Portland in regular season.
- Portland: Fierce, upwardly-trending defense (“Defense of a conference finalist”), but can they score enough?
- Denny Avdija’s reliance on free throws; officiating as X-factor.
- “I just don't see any hope for Portland scoring enough points.” —Zach (57:08)
- Pick: Zach—Spurs in 5; Kirk—Spurs in 6. (58:09)
D. Houston Rockets vs. Los Angeles Lakers
- No Luka or Reaves (injury) means a vastly undermanned Lakers against a peaking Rockets team (late-season emergence of Reed Sheppard).
- Question: Can LeBron “junk up” the series on defense? Unlikely.
- “Rockets should have enough solves to make this a relatively easy series” — Zach (62:19)
- Both take Houston: Zach—Rockets in 5; Kirk—Rockets in 6. (63:57)
E. Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
- No Embiid (appendicitis): “No way. It's that simple. I have the Celtics in 5.5 games.” —Kirk (69:02)
- Maxi has improved vs. Boston but Philly just lacks enough weapons in Embiid’s absence.
- Boston’s transition D and three-point barrages likely decisive; Boston too deep and disciplined.
- Pick: Both—Celtics in 5. (74:45)
F. Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Toronto Raptors ("The NBA TV Series")
- Raptors have length, defense, and flexibility to mix up lineups; Cavs not a lock, especially given playoff track records and Harden’s assimilation.
- Can Allen-Mobley two-big lineups lock down Toronto’s paint-reliant offense?
- “If there's one series that... I'm rooting for the underdog to steal game one or game two... it's this one. Because I want to see how Cleveland responds.” —Zach (83:26)
- Pick: Zach—Cavs in 7; Kirk—Cavs in 6. (87:44)
6. Additional Season/Playoff Dynamics
State of the Contenders:
- Prediction models, net rating: "There are three clear favorites: Thunder, Spurs, Celtics right now. And I think it smells right. For me it just feels like this is the Thunder’s year to win again." —Kirk (94:00)
- Nuggets—“Don’t count them out of the title mix.” —Zach
Magic’s Existential Crossroads:
- If Orlando loses to Charlotte, everything is on the table: “Even if they win and get rolled in the first round... all bets are off to me across the board.” —Zach (90:35)
- Frustration with Paolo Banchero-Franz Wagner fit and coaching questions.
Lamelo Suspension Debate:
- Kirk surprised Lamelo Ball wasn’t suspended for a flagrant foul on Bam Adebayo. (91:46)
Notable Quotes & Moments
- On the Play-In: “The play-in tournament deserves some flowers.” —Kirk (05:25)
- On Steph & Draymond: “Steph Curry and Draymond touched magic for us. Maybe one last time.” —Zach (06:03)
- Kirk's Big Fix for the NBA: “Scarcity is the business school professor answer to the question... the product is diluted when there's this many games.” (10:00)
- On Orlando’s Stakes: “If they lose to Charlotte... it's going to be a really dark, really newsworthy spring and summer in Orlando.” —Kirk (17:56)
- Minnesota-Denver Series Prediction: “I'm going to pick Minnesota in seven games so I'm going to start with that and here's why: I don't know if Denver can stop Minnesota's offense.” —Kirk (33:47)
- Knicks-Hawks Clutch Factor: “Jalen Brunson went and won the game and CJ McCollum just wasn't enough.” —Kirk (45:21)
- On Portland’s Offense: “How will Portland get to 100 points right there in my notes because Portland has the defense of a conference finalist... I just don't see the perimeter offensive Portland being dynamic enough.” —Kirk (54:11)
- On Cleveland: “Cleveland is just sort of existing under the radar and they have as high a ceiling almost as anyone in the East. There's just a lot... not to trust." —Zach (83:26)
Timestamps for Key Segments
- 03:32 — Chaotic play-in tournament review
- 09:12 — The regular season vs. play-in/playoffs intensity gap
- 11:26 — Cade and Luka All-NBA appeal breaking news
- 17:56 — Biggest franchise crises post play-in (Orlando focus)
- 24:49 — Golden State vs. Phoenix play-in breakdown/prediction
- 29:53 — Orlando vs. Charlotte breakdown/prediction
- 33:47 — Denver-Minnesota in-depth preview
- 45:21 — Knicks-Hawks tactical breakdown
- 54:11 — Spurs-Blazers tactical breakdown
- 62:19 — Houston-Lakers, LeBron/defense, Reed Sheppard X-factor
- 69:02 — Boston-Philly (No Embiid) preview
- 74:45 — Boston’s offensive/defensive machine vs. weakened Philly
- 78:40 — Cavs-Raptors, two-big strategy, Toronto's levers
- 87:44 — Series predictions recap
- 94:00 — Kirk's playoff stats piece/Celtics-Spurs-Thunder as favorites
Final Playoff Predictions Recap
| Series | Zach’s Pick | Kirk’s Pick | |--------------------------------|------------------|--------------| | Warriors vs. Suns (Play-In) | Warriors | Warriors | | Hornets vs. Magic (Play-In) | Hornets | Hornets | | T-Wolves vs. Nuggets | Nuggets in 6 | Wolves in 7 | | Knicks vs. Hawks | Knicks in 6 | Knicks in 7 | | Spurs vs. Trail Blazers | Spurs in 5 | Spurs in 6 | | Rockets vs. Lakers | Rockets in 5 | Rockets in 6 | | Celtics vs. Sixers | Celtics in 5 | Celtics in 5 | | Cavaliers vs. Raptors | Cavs in 7 | Cavs in 6 |
Episode Tone & Style
- High energy, stats-driven, and irreverently sharp
- Balances granular tactic talk ("How will Denver guard Ant?") with league-wide big picture debates (regular-season reform, award eligibility fiasco).
- Brimming with wisecracks, playful ribbing, and nuanced context that keeps the analysis both rigorous and fun.
For Further Reading
- Kirk’s Piece on Net Rating and Title Favorites: Net rating still predicts playoff success; Celtics, Thunder, Spurs stand tall in the data. (93:25)
- Zach on Trade/Franchise Crossroads: Especially regarding the Orlando Magic's dramatic inflection point.
Bottom Line:
This episode is the ultimate NBA playoff primer—brimming with tactical breakdowns, bold predictions, league-wide context, and the wit and wisdom that makes the Lowe Show essential listening every spring.