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Zach Lowe (0:00)
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Better nail is higher. And then it's an NBA final smorgasbord. I already did my deep dive preview with Kurt Goldsberry on Monday on the Zach Lowe show, but we're going even further because it's the NBA Finals. The Pacers, they're huge underdogs. Caitlin Cooper of the basketball she wrote Patreon of Pacers, genius X's and O's. The whole thing tells us where can they attack? Are there little places in the Thunder defensive juggernaut to prick at? Do they have any hope? What about on offense? How can they stop Shay Gildress Alexander? How are they going to do it? She's going to tell us. You're going to come out of this so much smarter. You're going to know what to look for, what the Pacers are going to try to do to make this a series. And then some Oklahoma City alumni tell good stories about the good old days in Oklahoma City and what it means for them to see the Thunder back in the NBA Finals all these years later. We might roll out a couple more of these as the as the Finals goes on. That's all coming up on today's Zach Lowe Show. You're listening to the Zach Lowe show, presented by FanDuel. America's number one sportsbook has made it easier than ever to get in on the action during the NBA Finals. And with live betting, the tip off is just the beginning. Look for the live SGP tab on the FanDuel Sportsbook app and build your bet slip. Then sit back and enjoy the game as you track the outcome of your parlay right in the app. If you don't already have it, download the FanDuel app today and make every moment more the ringers committed to responsible gaming include. Visit rg-help.com to learn more about the resources and helplines available and listen to the end of this episode of her Additional details must be 21 over in President select states or 18 and over in President DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800- GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com welcome to the Zach Low Show. It's a special Wednesday edition given the schedule and I was going to open this with some big picture NBA thoughts, focusing on some teams that have maybe been under the radar for interesting coming off seasons. Utah was going to be one of them. After the Austin Ange hiring, we're going to scrap that because the NBA news cycle rolls on. The Knicks, 72 hours after losing in the Eastern Conference finals, their first Eastern Conference finals in 25 years, fired the coach who stewarded them there. Tom Thibodeau, is out after five years as the Knicks head coach. Surprising? Maybe. Shocking? Not so much. Bill hinted that he could see this coming earlier in the season before the playoffs. Tibbs career winning percentage stands at.579 exactly, tied with Eric Spoelstra. Some irony in that that SPO is now the has been since Pop stepped down, the longest tenured head coach in the NBA and it's not close and Tibbs was actually climbing up those rankings. And in a symbol of the sort of chaos of coaching in the NBA, you win sometimes you get coach of the year, you get fired, you win, you get to the Eastern Conference finals for your Sad Sack franchise's first time in 25 years, you get fired. And also the SPO connection is is interesting because I think SPO is regarded as one of the elite quarter to quarter, game to game, minute to minute playoff tacticians. A guy who can take you over the top in that sense, much like Rick Carlisle has done for the Pacers. And Tibbs I think is viewed as more of the floor raiser archetype who maybe is not on that SPO level as a playoff, game to game, quarter to quarter, minute to minute tactician. Is that fair? We'll talk a little bit about that. By the way, it's not like unprecedented for a coach with this level of winning percentage to get fired. Here are some coaches who outrank Tibbs on all time winning Percentage that have been fired lots of times. Mike Brown, similar, sort of pigeonholed as a floor raiser guy. George Carl got fired a whole bunch of times. Doc Rivers fired a whole bunch of times. Mike Budenholzer fired right now. So not unprecedented. A couple of things went into this. Number one, I think it's. It's a statement from the Knicks front office and yeah, from James Dolan, too. And by the way, rule of thumb, any time it's leaked through reporters that, oh, no, no, this was a GM's decision, not an owner's decision. You may have been sitting in the exit interviews, but trust me, this is a Leon Rose decision. It means that the owner did have a role in the decision, whether he wants to do it or whether he wants to say it or not. But a couple of things. Number one, I think it's a statement that we don't think we are as close to being a championship team as the cliche two wins from the finals would typically indicate. And I think that's probably fair, if not correct. Maybe correct, too. Remember, we're about to see this in 24 to 48 hours. The Pacers aren't the bar. The Thunder are the bar. And that bar is really, really, really high. And, you know, look, the Pacers have some chance at an upset, but it's higher than anything that the Eastern Conference can provide. And the Knicks path through that Eastern Conference was not easy. Their plus or minus for the playoffs was exactly 0, 10 and 8 with a 0 scoring margin. The Detroit series, kind of a struggle, the Boston series, you know, some people would chalk that up as a Boston collapse. In the first two games. It's always some of one and some of the other. Some collapse, some comeback, some meant some instability and wobbling under pressure and some thriving under pressure and seizing opportunities that come to you. The Knicks seized that that series and they were on track to go up 3, 1 before Jayson Tatum's awful, awful injury that's going to submarine the Celtics and really flip the east on its head for the next couple of years. Their offensive rating for the playoffs. This is an offense for his team. It's built to be a scoring juggernaut that does enough to survive on defense for the playoffs. They scored 112.7 points per 100 possessions. That was about five points below their regular season average and would have ranked 20 in the regular season. Now, is that entirely fair? Not really. They faced two, and then the two very good defensive teams and then a third. Okay, to good defensive team in Indiana. That they actually scored pretty well against. But I think there was a sense that the offense was a little stuck in the mud and a little bit uncreative given the talent on hand, particularly in those first two series, both of which the Knicks won, by the way. We'll get back to the offense. The Pacers are. It is really interesting to think about the Pacers. I think the Pacers are leaving in their wake. In the wake of their just rampaging fun and gun choke sign dance around, outrun you. Siakam a blur in transition in their wake. They are leaving just a pile of organizational existential crises behind them. And I think it's like, I think that's two pronged. I think it's two pronged in terms of the way teams interpret the Pacers opponents interprets Pacers. One prong is really the Pacers. Are they that good? Who's their third best player? We can't beat that team. Like Pascal Siakam's that good as a number two guy. Like, we're overwhelmed. We're overwhelmed by the pace and fury and spirit and depth of like Andrew Nebhart, Aaron Neesmith like this. What Neesmith was like a cast off. Obi Toppin was our cast off. The Knicks cast off. We're overwhelmed by these guys. And on the flip side, number the second prong is. Cuts exactly the opposite direction. And it is very relevant, I think, to the Knicks, whatever they're doing. Can we get some of that? Like, that's pretty effective and it's a style of basketball that doesn't look like how we play. And yeah, our players are not those kinds of players. We have a very different kind of point guard, very different kind of set of players. But like, can we have a little bit of that? Because that shit's fun to watch and hard to play against and it's balls flying. Can we get a little bit of that Pacers, man? Just leaving people befuddled and questioning everything they thought they knew about themselves. Credit to the Pacers, I think number two, it's also a statement by the Knicks, a statement of reality that if you want to make a change, and I think the Knicks feel like they need to make a change, much harder to change the players than it is to change the coach. Even if you owe the coach $30 million. And I would implore Tibbs, take a year, man. Take a vacation, go visit your buddies, spend James Dolan's money, live it up anyway. It's particularly harder to change the players once you have gone all in to acquire two of them, the last two of the puzzle piece. Five first round picks from Mikhail Bridges and Randall DiVincenzo and another pick for Karl Anthony Towns making a gazillion dollars and eligible for an extension. By the way, they don't have much left to trade. They have a Washington first round pick that is essentially a fake first round pick that will become two second round picks. Now they're Washington second round picks. Those are pretty good. Sorry Wizards. Not, not a lot great going on in Washington and some swaps and all that. But look, we, we all know that they went all in for this team and those two players I think factor into this obviously very closely. Bridges, the five first round picks are going to hang around his neck forever. And it's not his fault. It's just the reality. And I, I think it's fair to suggest that in making that trade they expected the Knicks for Mikhail Bridges to be more than a three and D guy, limited offensive role player that he was for. Not all the season, not all of individual games you would see glimpses of Brooklyn, McHale bridges, glimpses of Phoenix, McHale bridges. But there was a sense, I think that a sense of incompleteness about this offense centered around Mikhail Bridges and his role. And that obviously needs to sort of change and round out in a way that the Knicks apparently have concluded. Tom Dippedo is not the coach to do. And then Towns second team, all NBA by any measure. Fantastic offensive season. Fantastic offensive playoffs too. Defensively, look, it's always, it's just always going to be a puzzle. It's always going to be a problem. And the Knicks, just like the Minnesota Timberwolves before them, got to the end of their first season in the Towns experience, shrugging their shoulders and being like, is he a center? Is he a power forward? How do we build this team around him? Is a lineup with Brunson at point guard and Cat at center dead on arrival defensively because of the lack of rim protection, the lack of switchability. No matter who the three wings are in between those two guys and those three wings are really, really good. Do we need to make this Mitchell Robinson starting alongside Cat thing a permanent feature of our team? Whether it's a 15 minute a game feature, a 20 minute a game feature, a 5 minute a game feature. Is that Mitchell Robinson? Is it another center? That's the reality of Cat. Offensively, that's all the defense stuff is just. It's just going to be a problem that you have to work around. Offensively, the numbers are great. It was just always. It was Hard man. It was grimy, it was tough. It was cat pumping and driving and just jitter bugging his way in with like elbows flying over here, limbs flying that way, bodies falling over. It was like bowling. It's like cat bowling pins just falling, including cat falling a lot. And nobody punishes you when you fall at the rim like the Indiana Pacers. By the way, that's an automatic basket. The other way his threes were down too. Too few threes. And look, part of that is we know, we know, we knew from before they even played a game and then when they played their opening game against Boston. Part of that is teams are going to put smart teams are going to put their centers on Josh Hart and wings on towns and do everything they can to switch and take away his pick and pop, which is the trump card, which is the ace in the, in the hole for them. And he didn't get as many of those as I thought. The Knicks probably needed him to get another relevant stat. Brunson CAT pick and roll. Regular season, 27 picks per 100 possessions. That's like fairly high. It was, I'm looking at it right now on tracking Data. It was 25th in frequency among 138 duos who ran at least 200 pick and rolls 27th. That's like pretty high. It's right next to in the rankings the Tyrese Maxey Andre Drummond two man game. The Devin Booker Mason Plumlee two man game. The Scoot Henderson, deandre Ayton two man game, probably not enough, but not, not terrible. Great efficiency across the board in the playoffs that dropped to 18 per 100 possessions. That's just like too few. I don't care what the matchups are. I don't care who's guarding Josh Hart, I don't care who's guarding Carl Anthony Downs, I don't care who's guarding Jalen Brunson. That's not enough. And yeah, smart teams put their centers on Josh Hart. Well, Indiana didn't do that. All that much credit to Miles Turner. He was able to scramble, corral Brunson, corral the ball handler, get back to cat. Detroit spent damn near the entire series with Jalen Duran on cat. And people who listen to this podcast know that I was yelling about it the entire time. How are you not spamming the Brunson Cat pick and roll when Detroit is gifting you the exact matchup that you want over and over and over again? And I just never really got a great answer for it. And I think that kind of that question kind of encapsulates why we're here with the Knicks. Look, there are other things going on with this team. Bill alluded to some of them in his. In his thing about the Tibbs thing yesterday. A lot of interesting personalities on this team, a lot of it. You know, big personalities with big roles and big goals and big ideas of what they are in the league thrown together at semi, like, not that long ago. Even the and Anoby trade is like, not that long ago. And having to figure it all out on the fly in one year together. Cat, obviously, right before the season started comes in. I think the Rick Brunson dynamic, which Bill brought up is certainly a unique one within the NBA. And, you know, I would imagine it's. It's awkward for some people to have the best player's dad on staff. That's just a reality. And like, let me tell you, when this happened, the secondary wave of texts and calls to my phone was, is Rick Brunson coming back? What are they going to do with Rick Brunson? I don't know the answer to that question. It's a tough conversation with Jalen one way or another. But I think beyond that, I think there's just a sense of this roster is really, really good. It wasn't good enough this year. We think maybe with some. A different voice. That's the phrase everybody always uses, a new voice. Tibbs can't change his voice. He's always going to talk like this. We have more than enough to win. Different voice, different imagination, that maybe the ceiling can budge just enough higher to. To get you to a Finals level, to a puncher's chance against OKC level. Is that true? Well, we're. We're about to find out. And there's no, by the way, there's no denying that Tibbs is a very, very good NBA coach. That's the risk here. Tibbs is like. It's unassailable. If you want to win a lot of basketball games, hire Tom Thibodeau as your coach. Has he. Has he made the Finals as a head coach? No. Has he won a championship as a head coach? No. Would life be different if Derrick Rose didn't get injured? Maybe. But, you know, we don't need to revisit that whole thing. There's no denying that. And the risk here is I don't know who they're going to hire. All the names have already been thrown out there. I don't know how many of them are realistic. Not realistic. It's a little early and it's a little fresh. The risk here is chaos. Like, we have seen teams move on from coaches who get you to here and go up. That's the Steve Kerr, Larry Brown. There's. There's a model for that. We've also seen teams move on from coaches to get you here and you go down to here and then you're just here hovering in mediocrity for like 10 years and eight coaches and you wake up and you're like, what the hell just happened to our franchise? That's the risk. But you know, I don't think it's like wrong for the Knicks to conclude we just were not. We might go a little bit down if we make a mistake with this hire, but we need to risk it for the chance that we go up a level. And we don't think Tibbs is the guy to take us up a level. Why would they think that? Number one, I really think going to Landry Shammit and Delon Wright late in the Pacer series when their backs were against the wall, I think that was a big deal. Now you can spin it as like he adjusted, he brought these guys in. My guess is internally it was regarded as too little, too late. Why did we have to reach a crisis point for you to play the bench? One of the reasons that Tibbs is an elite floor raiser and regular season wins machine is he plays his best players tons of minutes. We don't need to litigate the minutes issue. I don't really think it's arguable that he plays the starters too many minutes. It just is. It's a thing. It's real. I'm sorry, coach, but it's just too many minutes. And I keep harping on that game against Charlotte in December, which they won by 24 points and Tibbs played McKill Bridges the first 46 minutes and 30 seconds of the game consecutively. I'm sorry, you can't do it. You can't do it. And it's not even just because of the minutes load. Forget the minutes load. Mikhail Bridges is an Ironman. He's very proud of being an Ironman. You can't do it because you need to arrive at the playoffs knowing that guys 7 to 11 on the roster in the right matchups can give me 13 minutes. Like I need to know that Landry Shammit and Delon Wright can give me 14 minutes against the Pacers and for the Knicks, who are going to be pressing up against the second apron may be able to duck at this offseason by the way, it's a big reason that trading Towns for Durant, for instance, is very, very difficult. If it's two second apron teams, it's damn near impossible. And maybe they will have an easier time ducking at the next season, but they need Tyler Kolek and Pascom Daddy and guys like Huck Porty. They need some of one of those guys, two of those guys to arrive at next April with a track record just big enough to be like, that guy can give us 13 minutes in a playoff series. And I think they justifiable, like we don't know if we're going to get that if we stick with this coach. The other thing is the offense. And it's funny because Tibbs has been sort of pigeonholed as a defensive coach and he is, he revolutionized NBA defenses with the scheme that he, he deployed in Boston for their championship run in 2008. You look at the numbers, his teams have always been really good offensive teams. And that's what gets Thibodeau's allies within the league upset when he gets criticized for being uncreative, predictable, slow, whatever, on offense and then gets fired is because they look at the numbers and they say, look, this offense. Minnesota ranked number seven. The Bulls were like top 10 three times a row. The Knicks were top 10 this year. And that's, that's very fair. Like Tibbs is. Tibbs is. The numbers are what they are. And it was funny a month or two into this season when I was not working at all. I mean, I was watching games and talking to people, but I had no outlet to say or write anything. I thought about like, this is an interesting start for a Tibbs team because the classic Tibbs offense is just a battering ram of efficiency. It's, it doesn't, it doesn't ever look pretty. It's, it doesn't ever look fast. It doesn't ever like confuse defenses with crazy play calling or quick adjustments. It's offensive rebounding, free throws, slow pace, lots of isolation, which results in low turnovers. And all of that turns into efficiency. Just a battering ram of simple straight down the middle, pounding toward efficiency. And early in the season I was curious because when you play cat at the five, you lose some of that. You lose the just interior, just pound, pound, pound, offensive glass, pound, pound, pound, all of that. You become more of a five out team. And early in the season I was like, good for Tibbs. There's like some adaptation here. Towns was sort of lifted up and used as a passer. And Anobi and Bridges were getting these cutting, cut, cutting baskets off cuts and Brunson was an all false screener now and then and you know they just sort of looked like a non tibs offense in some ways and they were, they were producing at a, at a good level and then and in the end they still ended up looking like a Tibbs offense. To wit, 4th and free throw rate, 9th in offensive rebounding rate, 7th lowest turnover rate, 27th in 3 point rate. So despite how it looked, they still sort of profiled in the end as a Tibsy offensive team. And I think the Knicks just said there's a ceiling on that. We need to be more creative, we need to be faster, we need to be more unpredictable. There's an idea that they need maybe to play true five out lineups more. In other words, if cats at center can we have every everyone else on the team be a three point threat so that teams can't put their centers on Josh Hart? Could we. If that's miles of right, if it's Landry Shamit, if it's player X that we sign with the taxpayer baby mid level exception, can we get to that lineup and look, every team wants that lineup type. It's really hard to build a five out offensive lineup that does not suck on defense. It's why the Pacers are in the finals. They built that kind of lineup. Who are you going to hide your center on in that lineup? Aaron Neesmith. He'll run around and make 40% of his threes. Andrew Nemhardt, good luck. He's a very creative player. The Celtics won the championship with that kind of lineup. Five out, good on defense, very hard to build. Maybe the Knicks had the personnel in house to at least try it for a few minutes here, a few minutes there. I never thought it was realistic that Tibbs was suddenly going to cut Josh hart's minutes to 18 minutes a game. He's been the heart and soul of the team for two years. I didn't hear a lot of Knicks fans clamoring for less Josh Hart until like two weeks ago. Certainly not in last year's playoff run where everybody loved the team. I think just as another example, like one of the fun things about Robinson coming into the starting five and being a role man like a hard roll man screen dive, which Cat doesn't do all that often. And I think could do more in those five out lineups if we ever see them. It's effective is that it kind of unlocked bridges as more of a secondary ball Handler when you have a real role, man. And Bridges coming off screens on the left wing with that role, man, all of a sudden it was like, this is why we traded for Mikhail Bridges. And that's the thing about this is like the hints were there. The hints of a more creative, more diverse, higher ceiling offense. You'd see them. They were there. They were there at the beginning of the season, they were there in the playoffs, but they were just hints. And I think the Knicks decided we can't have it be hints. It's gotta be something that's baked into the DNA of our team, despite the fact that our point guard plays a ball pounding ISO heavy style despite that. And Tibbs got Brunson moving off the ball a little bit in the playoffs and all that. We. It can't be baked in. It's gotta. It can't be hints. It's gotta be baked in. It's gotta be in our DNA. And Tibbs isn't the guy to do that. We need a new guy to do that. And I honestly, like, I think that's fair. I think that's fair. I will say this. A, he wins games. B, how can I say this? If you talk to Tibbs about all this, you would be. If you're. If you're a Tibbs critic, you would be pretty goddamn surprised and impressed by his responses in this theoretical conversation. Because here's the thing about coaches. The coaches that you all think suck and are dumb and slow to adjust. You have that conversation with them, you're going to realize real fast how out of your depth you are. The counters that Tibbs would have to all of this shit that I'm saying now. I would be like, oh, oh, so you actually thought about all of this and then charted it out five steps ahead and have a. If I do that, they're going to do that. Like, these are not original ideas to this coach. He knows more about basketball than I will ever know. He forgot more about basketball today than I will ever know. So just remember when you are levying all of these, like, I wish they would do this, I wish they would do that. He's thought a lot about it. That said, I think stubbornness is one of Tibbs sort of defining traits. And even if you see hints of it, even if he's thought about it, even if he's had staff meetings about it, you default back to what's comfortable to you. And the Knicks have decided that defaulting back to the comfort zone is not where they want to go. And now you got to nail the hire. That's all. Got to nail the hire because the pressure is going to be on. You've. You've said conference finals is not good enough. You fired the winningest coach you've had in a gazillion years. And you better get this higher right, because you've made a pretty strong statement here. And as I said before, the downside is chaos. And Tibbs did a good job in New York. You can't tell me otherwise. He did a good job. I get the issues that they had. In the end, I get the decision. Even. It's hard. These things are hard. It sometimes requires pain and losing the news cycle and being criticized for decisions you make if you want to try to get to the next level. It's complicated. And here we are. And now we just have to see who they hire. The Knicks, man. Whoo. Conference finals and out. You just wonder. Game one, Game one. Was it Tibbs fault that they missed all the free throws? I'd have to go rewatch the end of game one to really see what coaching errors may have occurred there because that game goes the other way. Tyrese Halliburton shot blows the wind blows it. The leprechauns. If the Madison Square Garden had leprechauns like Boston's arena blows a little bit to the right, we may be in a totally different place. Okay, let's talk about the finals. All right, check this out. FanDuel has a promotion called Tail or fade. The idea is pretty simple. Bill Simmons, heard of him? Makes a bet and you can either tail the bet if you think it's going to win or fade it if not. And best of all, you can get a 50% profit boost to make your choice with. That means you can boost your winnings on whichever side you pick. So make sure you head over to the FanDuel app to tail or fade. Bill's bet with a 50% profit boost must be 21 or older in President select states or 18 and older and President in DC, Kentucky or Wyoming. Opt in required bonus issued as non refundable profit boost tokens. Restrictions apply including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms@sportsbook.fanduel.com Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com this episode is brought to you by HubSpot. Growing a business can feel impossible, but HubSpot's customer platform can help. It's powered by a suite of AI tools called Breez, so you can generate more leads, close more deals and scale your service fast. With breeze agents handling the busy work, customers are cutting sales cycles in half. That's a lot. And saving hours on work each week. Best of all, you can see the results in days, not months. Visit HubSpot.com AI to learn more. All right, it's time to talk NBA Finals. Oklahoma City is a favorite. We're going to have some Oklahoma City nostalgia coming up. But the Pacers are in the Finals. And if I've learned one thing in the playoffs, it's don't doubt the Pacers. The Pacers. Rick Carlisle is up there cooking up something. One of the greatest coaches in the game, Tyrese Halburn, maybe the one of the two or three most creative players in the game. They're cooking up something. And if there's anyone in media who knows what they might be cooking up, it's Caitlin Cooper, who runs basketball. She wrote a Patreon that you should subscribe to. I am a subscriber. Caitlin. My daughter wore your Basketball She Wrote T shirt yesterday and has declared it already one of her favorite T shirts. And let me tell you, that's a, that's a tough inner circle to get into. So tough she's not above reaching into the hamper for one of her favorite T shirts, even if it's dirty because she doesn't want to wear any of the 45 that are sitting in her closet. It's a tough, it's a tough inner circle to crack. Caitlin, how are you doing?
