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- [00:00]
Zach Lowe
This episode is brought to you by the NBA on Prime. Hey, Zach Lowe here. The NBA on Prime is back this Friday with another action packed doubleheader. The night starts with Jaylen Brown and the Boston Celtics going toe to toe with Pascal Siakam and the Indiana Pacers. Then James Harden and the Los Angeles Clippers head north to face Drew Holiday and the Portland Trailblazers. And if you're not a Prime member, that's not a problem. Sign up for a 30 day free trial to get started today. Celtics, Pacers, Clippers, Blazers. Two good games. The gap year team. Celtics, Pacers, Celtics. Not so much of a gap year. They've been a top team in the East. Pacers, they're getting healthier. They're getting a little friskier. Clippers, can they save their season? Blazers, can they get healthy at the point guard spot? They're frisky on defense, too. Coverage starts Friday at 7pm Eastern only on Prime. Restrictions apply. See Amazon.com Amazon prime for details. All right, coming up, we got a loaded Zach Lowe show with the one and only Kurt Goldsberry and his Portland Sea Dogs hat. I wasn't planning to do an episode today. It's the day after Christmas, but too much stuff is happening. The Christmas games were mostly awesome and raised a lot of questions. JJ Redick, pretty cranky about the Lakers defense. What do we see in that game? What did the Rockets learn? The Cavs? Knicks? A barn burner in New York. Do you feel better as a Cavs person after that loss than you did before? Do you feel worse feeling like the Knicks have your number? How am I supposed to take that loss? The Nuggets, Jokic. What? What is that stat line? Beat the Timberwolves in overtime without three of their starters. Is Jokic the MVP again? I think so. We're going to talk about it. But the biggest story in the NBA, I don't know enough about the other American sports right now to say in all of American sports is the San Antonio Spurs. Not only that they're 237 and a true blue title contender already somehow, but that in two weeks they have changed the entire landscape of the NBA. From the Thunder versus the field, the Thunder versus 73 wins to we're three and oh, against this team. We are beating their ass twice in the last 10 days. We have their number. The whole NBA has flipped on its head because of what Wemby and these guards are doing to the Oklahoma City Thunder. We're going to talk about it all coming up on the Zach Lowe Show. With Kurt Goldsberry. This episode of the Zach Lowe show is presented by Amazon Prime. The holidays are here and they move quick. Luckily, Prime's fast free delivery is your miracle play. Getting whatever you need there fast. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and it just can't wait. From stocking stuffers to that perfect gift for the MVP in your life. It's on Prime. Head to Amazon.com prime to shop now.
- [02:47]
Kurt Goldsberry
Foreign.
- [02:54]
Zach Lowe
Of the Zach Lowe Show Kurt Goldsberry is here putting in overtime. How you doing, sir?
- [03:00]
Kurt Goldsberry
I am doing well. Happy holiday, Zach Lowe.
- [03:03]
Zach Lowe
We had a hell of a Christmas start to finish. We had let's do it in order. We had Knicks, Cavs, barn burner. We had the game of the day for me, Spurs, Thunder, the one I was most looking forward to. And the spurs made another statement. We are going to pivot right back there. We had a little. It's always nice to have a little interlude. A little like, okay, it's like, you know, I maybe can have this one on in the background. Mavs Warriors AD gets hurt again. Trade implications. What should the Mavs do? We'll get there. Then we pick right back up Rockets, Lakers or shifting over to abc. Maybe the. Maybe the other one was on abc. I don't know. It's the headliner. The Rockets make a starting lineup change. The Lakers disintegrate. On defense, JJ Redick goes full on like military drill sergeant. Everyone stinks. Nobody cares. We gotta care. Nobody cares. Meltdown, post game. And then to cap it off, you're ready to go to bed. You ready to have a little Bailey's little glass of wine? Whatever you like. No, no. Nikola Jokic reclaims his Status as the MVP favorite. 56, 15 and 16. Beating the Nemesis one time. Nemesis Minnesota Timberwolves for the third time this year without three starters.
- [04:14]
Kurt Goldsberry
One.
- [04:14]
Zach Lowe
What a day. Kirk Goldsberry.
- [04:17]
Kurt Goldsberry
A great day. A great day. And like you, I was zeroed in on Oklahoma City. I felt like the Thunder had had enough of these up and coming spurs and this was their chance at home to just remind everybody that they're still in charge of the NBA. And the opposite happened. Everybody who's listening to this probably knows I'm biased, but it was an incredible game for San Antonio. But like you said, just an incredible NBA Christmas day capped with, I mean, one of the best regular season performances I've ever seen. Nicole Yic winning that game. I he set a record, Zach for points in overtime ever scored as he carried the broken Denver Nuggets to to a victory against their nemesis. It was just a great day.
- [05:01]
Zach Lowe
They're not a nemesis anymore. Three, three times three. And oh, this year. Not that the Nuggets have solved that. That's a tough matchup for them. But you know, I haven't seen a team more casually come back from being down 9 almost halfway through overtime, just like, sure, I'll come out, hit a three out of a timeout. We're fine. We're down nine with two and a half minutes to go in overtime. But the story of the, of the year in the NBA is the San Antonio spurs and specifically their comfort against the Oklahoma City Thunder. In two weeks, they have flipped the entire NBA season on its head. In two weeks, we have gone from Oklahoma City over the field. Oklahoma City 73 wins. Oklahoma City chasing history to. Wait a second, have they found their kryptonite? Can they even beat the San Antonio Spurs? The spurs are three and oh, in two weeks against Oklahoma City and they have obliterated all those narratives. If one team in the field can beat you three times in two weeks in games that we all agree were meaningful games or big stage stage games, the field by definition gets the edge over you. 73 wins. Goodbye. We can table that discussion. Unless they go on a massive winning streak soon. Mvp. Not only is the door open, Jokic is now the favorite and the leading candidate to win mvp. There's only a three game gap in the loss column between the Nuggets and the Thunder. We can come, come back to that. And the Spurs. I think, I think the Thunder are better than the Spurs. Against 29 other NBA teams, the spurs have looked straight up better than the Thunder. One on one. These last two games have been beat downs. I didn't see, I didn't think we'd see a team be able to beat down the Oklahoma City Thunder multiple times in a short span. Once at home, once on the road. This is a matchup. That is a problem for the Thunder. That's obvious. Beyond that, the spurs are officially right now, way ahead of schedule. Inner circle championship contenders. When I said after the first game against Oklahoma City, the Cup game, you know, there was this discussion, are they contenders? And I said, well, it kind of depends how you frame that. Like, am I ready to call them like inner circle championship? Denver, Oklahoma City level contenders? Not yet. They're kind of in that conference. No, I was wrong. They are improbably against all historical precedent about aging curves and whatever, they are inner circle championship contenders right Freaking. Now, here's where I want to start. Kirk. What's been so startling in these three games is how comfortable the spurs look on offense against Oklahoma City. We all knew the spurs were going to be a defensive juggernaut with Wembanyama and oh, my God, I mean, just, oh, my God, they're a top 10 offense overall right now. That's by itself at a schedule. We had concerns. I had concerns, even though I was way high on the spurs over lock it in. Didn't expect anything like this because I had concerns about their level of outside shooting around Wembanyama that has been crushed to smithereens. They're totally fine. They have scored 121 points per 100 possessions against Oklahoma City in three games. No other team this year has A season average above 108 against the league's best defense by far. So let's just start there because that's the headline. Why are the spurs so comfortable against Oklahoma City on offense? What is it about this matchup that the league's best defense, this infallible element of the game can no longer hold up?
- [08:46]
Kurt Goldsberry
You got to start with de' Aaron Fox and the guards and specifically Fox and. And when they beat OKC that first time in Vegas, Zach, I got on a plane. I was like, I have to go see the Spurs Knicks game. And I was sitting with some spurs friends before that Knicks game, and they're like, hey, it's time to give some shine to de' Aaron Fox. I know there was some awkwardness around when the spurs started five and, oh, was this a good move? Should they trade de' Aaron Fox? Well, to me, this incredible spurs run, I do mean incredible, started in mid November when Wemby went out and Castle missed a bunch of games. And it was Deer and Fox, dude, they're in the middle of the group of death. And they win at Denver, they win at Portland, they go to the corner finals and win at the Lakers to get to Vegas in the first place before Wemby was back. And that was all de' Aaron Fox. So I think it's time for the NBA community, the audience of the Zach Lowe show, and us to be like, yeah, the Deer and Fox thing look like it looks like it's working out. And when you ask that key question, it's like, I've never seen a set of guards look as comfortable against the Caruso, Dort, SGA, Wallace sort of apparatus as I have these last three games. The spurs are young. Some of them are faster than anybody on the Thunder, Deer and Fox, they have a size play and a physicality play with Castle and Harper. But for me, it's their ability to do something that no other team in the NBA has been able to do, is get into the paint with their guards and start making plays. And that has been Darren Fox, who was their offensive leader yesterday and has been really the big stat with Fox that I think people need to know is when Wemby goes out. Last year, the spurs were a dumpster fire. This year, when Wemby goes out, their offensive efficiency goes up because de' Aaron Fox is competent at that point guard spot leading this offense. So he's brought this new element. So my answer to you is like this fleet of guards, but I'd center it around dear.
- [10:50]
Zach Lowe
And Fox Wemby has only played 70 minutes in these three games. That's another thing that kind of needs to be noted. And yes, he's been at full terror level defensively in those games, but offensively it's. It's come and gone. It seems like every three he hits is an absolute dagger. And the offensive rebounding he's brought to this matchup. You know, it's funny, I don't know the terminology for this. We talk about second jumps a lot and third jumps a lot. Like Zion has an incredibly fast second jump. Wemby has like a second tiptoe or like a second and third tiptoe because he knows I'm so tall I don't even need to load up for a second jump. I just need to kind of bounce a little bit and I'm above everybody else. And he's just like towering over everyone on these offensive rebounding possessions. You nailed it in two ways. Number one, the guards, and number two, speed. Particularly when Dort and J Dub are at the 2 and the 3. The spurs have a very visible speed edge against the Thunder that no other team has really been able to leverage. And the Thunder have not been able to extract a size penalty on the other end. They just don't like jdubs hit some push off mid Rangers and all that. But it's not like he's taking de' Aaron Fox, who has been his primary assignment a lot, down to the block and bullying him. And Castle and Harper are as physical as anything. The Thunder might not be as strong as Lou Dort, who's built like a offensive lineman, but Castle, like, you try to go under screens against him and you could see the Thunder trying to do that more. They even switched some big guys onto him now and then to Try to keep him out of the paint. Guess what? He's getting into the paint anyway. He's beating you to the spot. He's knocking you off bounds, he's hitting floaters, he's in mid Rangers. And Dylan Harper has this sort of just I'm going to drive into you, get all herky jerky, spin pivot, knock you off balance, hit a mid Ranger, bully you with my shoulder, hit a layup like there. But the guard play has been the story and it's the speed. And here's the thing that Fox has in common with Tyrese Maxey. They don't turn the ball over. They've always been extremely low turnover players and in these three games their turnover rate against the Thunder who forced more turnovers than anybody, everybody knows that the spurs have only turned the ball over on 13.8% of their possessions for the season. Like among all 30 teams that would rank like sixth or seventh to do that against this defense. It's basically unheard of for a team to not turn the ball over like this. And the last thing is the free throws. And everyone whines about the Thunder getting all the calls. They're like getting away with everything on defense and blah blah. Spurs have taken 77 free throws to 59 for the Thunder. You put all that together and just more broadly there's something about this group of guards and their level of speed that gives. Like Fox is getting wherever he wants and kicking the ball to three point shooters for wide open shots. That this is giving the Thunder legit, legit real problems that they don't know how to. You can tell like they don't know how to solve this right now.
- [13:53]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, it's been stunning. I think you mentioned the turnover thing. Denying them that sort of oxygen, that defensive run ability that they have with off live ball turnovers. You know Stephan, Stefan Castle does throw the ball away a lot. I know that's something he's got to get better at. But in this three game arc you're exactly right. They haven't given them those easy sort of pick six plays that, that we all associate with this Thunders defense. You mentioned those 70 minutes when I did a deep dive on the spurs for the ringer around the NBA Cup. I think the biggest difference from last year is when Wemby was off the court. The spurs were terrible this year they're not great but they're competent and we've seen it in this sort of three game run against the Thunder. And you mentioned those 70 minutes. I logged the score in those 70 minutes with Victor in the game, the spurs are ahead 175 to 128. So that net rating is 32 against the Oklahoma City Thunder. When Wemby's in the game and when he goes out, that goes to negative three, which isn't terrible. It is. We're treading water here in these non Wemby minutes, which is a huge accomplishment against the defending champs. But you mentioned the Wemby defense. And I do want to say as much, as much shine as I want to give to the other spurs and the front office and the coaching staff for building this competence around their superstar. The Wemby minutes are just stunning. Like, he's changing the geometry of what SGA wants to do on the basketball court. He's changing everybody's offensive strategies. These guys who are making U turns. It's been a thing, but it's crazy to see just the defensive impact of Wemby. And I still think that's the biggest thing, Zach, is when Wemby is on the floor, the paint is pretty much off limits. And that is the definitive thing Here in these 70 minutes, the stats bear it out. The Thunder turn into a bad offense with Victor Wembanyam on the floor.
- [15:58]
Zach Lowe
The irony is his block streak ended against the Thunder in the second game because no one wants to even try it anymore. And it's not just you mentioned the U turns and we all see the, like the. I call them the oh nos, like oh no, oh no pump fake and get the hell out. It's the drives that don't even really become drives. So yesterday there was a Thunder possession. I don't remember when it was. I think it was the third quarter when they got the Spurs. It wasn't a blender, but the ball was moving around. And it got to Casen Wallace in the left corner and he started a drive. He attacked to close out, beat the guy who was closing out on him. And this is the sequence you see dozens of times in every NBA game. Floor spread, get teams in the blender, drive, get to the rim, kick it out, blah, blah. It's not that Casen Wallace didn't shoot. It's that he saw Wemby and he stopped his drive eight feet before he even touched the paint. And when you stop drives like he wasn't even planning to shoot, there was no part of case. And Wallace was like, this is going to be the end of the possession. It was. It's my job to keep the machine moving, draw in the help and make the next Pass. He couldn't even draw on the help because he stopped so short of the paint that the spurs other defenders could be like, oh, our job is done. Like, that's the Wemby effect too. It's drives that don't happen. But going, let's zoom out before we go back to the spurs office because I think there's more being on that bone. There's all this talk about, is it a rivalry? You know, I don't know if it's a rivalry. We got to play. This is a. This is not only a rivalry, it is the rivalry.
- [17:32]
Kurt Goldsberry
Right?
- [17:32]
Zach Lowe
It is the defining rivalry of the NBA now. It has a chance to be like the Bird Magic of team rivalries for the next X amount of years. And it got me thinking, like Oklahoma City 1.0 with Durant and Russ and Harden and Ibaka and then not Harden. They had like little pieces of rivalries with teams most of which were older than they were. The spurs, the Clippers, the Grizzlies a little bit with the Mavs. And they didn't really have like a. On our level of age rising with us, we're going to be punching each other in the mouth every year in the playoffs kind of rivalry. Could have been Houston after Harden got there, could have been the Warriors. Both of those things were aborted because of the decision that Kevin Durant made to go join the warriors, which, fine, whatever. He did it. This is a higher level version of what, like Bull's Heat was supposed to be in the Eastern Conference before Derrick Rose's career was went sideways. Like, I like, it's obviously a rivalry. There's obviously tension. There's obviously frustration with among the Thunder that they can't figure this out. Like Shay shoved Wemby in the first half of the game yesterday in semi transition. That was a clear, like, we're wobbling as a team, confidence wise. Like, this is not. This is not only a rivalry. It is the rivalry. This is the defining rivalry of the sport right now. And fingers crossed that this is the case for the next five years because this is so much fun. It's ridiculous.
- [19:02]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I hadn't seen that. I'm so glad you pulled that Shay moment out. I hadn't thought about that, but I'd never seen him lose his cool like that. He's one of the coolest customers in the league. That's one of the reasons he's so great. But he lost his poise there for a second going up the court. But it's clear that this is a rivalry. And I said to R.C. buford, When I ran into him in Vegas, I said, hey, this is like. And I work for the team. But I was like, this seems like a new rivalry. He's like, new rivalry. We. They feel like they've been rivals with these guys forever. I mean, Sam Presti's been there. He comes from the spurs. They. In 2012. You know, when I first started covering the NBA with espn, I thought that was the greatest spurs team of the era, and that might be the greatest team. Remember that?
- [19:45]
Zach Lowe
And then they won 20 games in a row.
- [19:47]
Kurt Goldsberry
The Thunder send them home. James Harden and Serge Ibaka. Yeah, they end that incredible run the spurs were on in 2014. Old man Tim Duncan goes in there and turns back the clock and sends the Thunder home with a legendary performance on their way to that championship. So this is a rivalry. This has been a rivalry, and it's just a new iteration. There's some new faces out there, but it is great. And I share the sentiment. It's just great basketball. But, man, I did not see it coming this fast. I thought when they got to that semifinal, I was like, okay, this is. This is crazy. Okay, the nice run by the spurs and, like, hand up. I did not think the spurs were winning that game in Vegas. The next game. Well, now you got your attention back in San Antonio. They're going to give it to you. Oh, my God. They win by 20. And now here we go to Christmas Day. Well, now they're in Oklahoma City. Let's see what happens now. And they win that one. It's just been crazy rapid change. 12 days. Zach Lowe, three Spurs wins against the team that we both thought was the buzzsaw of the NBA two weeks ago.
- [20:57]
Zach Lowe
I want to go back to the spurs offense because another thing that's happening is. And this is not a new thing is, you know, the game starts off thunderstar double big, and then they almost sometimes never go back to it. And they go one big the rest of the way. One of Chet, one of Hartenstein. We saw some Kenrich Williams at center, more of it yesterday, I think, trying to space Wembanyama out, trying to find an answer to a Spurs defense that they're having trouble. But when the spurs have the ball and Holmgren and Wembanyama are the only two big men on the floor, the only two true bigs on the floor for one for each team, which is really the sort of headliner alignment here. Like, that's the alignment we want to see. The Thunder have generally made a decision and the spurs have made the same decision. We'll talk about it. Where we don't want Chet on Wembanyama. We're going to put Chet on Keldon Johnson, we're going to put Chet on Harrison Barnes. And I think the reason for that is twofold. Number one, we want Chet to roam. Number two, if you're going to go at our big man in the pick and roll, you're not going to be able to do it with Wembanyamba. You're going to have to use Harrison Barnes as a screener or Keldon Johnson as a screener. And if you want to use Wembanyama as a screener because he's Victor Wembanyama, well, we're going to be able to switch that because we're going to have Caruso on him or J. Dub on him. And I would posit that that ploy has failed against the spurs so far for a couple of reasons. Number one, Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson have been sensational. If you're going to leave them open, they're drilling every corner three in your face. If you're to close out hard on them, they're going to blow by you and make enough plays at the rim to hurt you. And then when the spurs do use Wembanyama as a screener and the Thunder, like cool, will switch between Dort and Caruso, Dort and J Dub, Caruso and Wallace. The spurs are finding ways to punish that. Because you know what? Fox and Wembanyama, if that's the two man game, they're awesome. They've seen every scheme. They know what to do with switches, they swipe screens. Fox will reject the screen and go hard and beat the switch that way. And all of this is a long winded way of saying should Cheche's guard Wemby more? Is that, is that part of the answer here? I understand the reasoning for it. I wonder if that's something we see them try a little bit more Oklahoma City the next time these two play.
- [23:13]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I think they were born to guard each other and there's a rivalry there. Speaking of rivalry, sort of a microcosm of this is certainly this years long Chet Wemby rivalry. And it is interesting that they don't match them up and all the things that the Thunder are throwing at at Wemby. But ultimately like I just looked at some stats, you know, the, the spurs won the paint battle, they won the three point shooting stats. And that was another interesting thing here on the other side of the court. I'm sure we'll get to. But there it all starts with that blender. And you were talking about it a few minutes ago. The spurs are getting into that blender no matter who's at the point of attack, no matter who's on Wemby, no matter who's setting screens against this Thunder team in a way that I haven't seen the balls. Finding Harrison Bards wide open in ways you wouldn't expect against the Thunder Champagne. The ball is just finding open shooters regardless of who is stirring the drink for San Antonio. And I think it goes back to that. There's a team now with younger, faster, more aggressive guards than Oklahoma City, and that's the San Antonio Spurs. So to me, Zach, it starts at the point of attack with that driving machine. I haven't looked up the advanced stats on drives. Maybe you have, but the spurs are able to do that regardless of the matchup science at the point of attack in a way that I think helps them create clean looks against this team that other teams just simply haven't been able to achieve.
- [24:44]
Zach Lowe
It can't be stated enough how awesome Harrison Barnes and Keldon Johnson have been for the spurs this year. I don't think anyone outside Harrison Barnes, immediate family thought he had this much juice left in the tank on a legit great team. He's been sensational both ends of the floor. Keldon Johnson is a six man of the year candidate. This is a guy the spurs could have traded a thousand times by now and in a lot of other universes they would have traded him a thousand times by now. They would have traded him in the same, you know, sort of kick off the rebuild trades dejante Murray, Derek White, all of that. No. And now he's the sixth man of the year candidate, Vesel, who we barely talk about. I love the Vesel subsection of the spurs offense. Coming off screens, catching, going right into a pick and roll. All the stuff they do with him. He's an A plus kind of shoot, an A shooter. He's been. He's been really, really good. Can't say enough about all of those guys on, on the other end of the floor. The same thing is happening where the spurs are not putting wembanyama on Chet Holmgren. And that feels much more like a weapon than it does like a shoulder shrug, act of surrender. And they're putting him on, you know, pick whoever when it's one big versus one big Caruso, Dort, whatever. And Caruso couldn't make a three yesterday. And the Thunder in fairness, as we laud, the Spurs Thunder is shooting 29% on threes against the spurs in these three games, underperforming. AJ Mitchell missed the last two. And you actually felt. You actually felt like when Shay was off the floor, the void of A.J. mitchell a little bit. That's not to say that he would have swung these games. He would not have just the thing. But putting Wemby on, Caruso, Dort, whoever, Aaron Wiggins, whoever happens to be out there, just being like, don't guard that guy. Just roam everywhere. It's working. And it has left me with two questions. I think the spurs are just wildly unafraid of Chet Holmgren. And you texted me after the first quarter of that game last yesterday saying, this is a big 36 minutes for Chet Holmgren. I don't really think he answered the bell. He's been. He's been fantastic this year. Not in this matchup. So what. What did you mean by that text, and what do you want to see from Chet Holmgren?
- [27:00]
Kurt Goldsberry
I think the alarm in Oklahoma City has a lot to do with the two and three in that rotation. J Dub does not look the same. All right. From the wrist, he. He, He. He has not looked the same. And I'm not raising an alarm just yet, but it is it. I'm getting ready to press the button. The Chet thing is bigger, especially in this context. Against Victor 1, he looks like he's. He's losing the mind game to Victor, and Victor is sort of asserting himself as this sort of mental presence over him. But, dude, when you look at the advanced numbers, Chad Holmgren is supposed to protect the paint. He is the rim protector for this team, and it just feels like he's not doing that as much as these guards. We said once those. Once those guards get into the paint, that's where Chet's supposed to show up. He's supposed to assert himself. He hasn't done that. He's missed some huge free throws in this three game run, much to the delight of Victor Wembanyama. But it just. It just feels like, look, SGA has been great. SGA has been playing like an mvp. But really the question mark in OKC is. Is south of the SGA line in the rotation, specifically with two and three. And I think Chet is the most impactful defender, obviously interior defender on that team. And if he's not setting a tone there, man, it just feels like Wemby is, you know, in the heads of okc, starting with the head of Chad Holmgren, and that's why I said that The spurs had 41 points in that first quarter, Zach. 41 points against the Thunder. It's like you don't see that. And, and again it was with Wemby barely playing. I don't even remember if he got in much for the first quarter yesterday. But Chet needs to be their defensive quarterback, particularly in the paint. And if he's not going to do that, the question marks around the Thunder, especially in some of these matchups, get a lot bigger.
- [28:55]
Zach Lowe
The bottom line is this. The Wemby only for San Antonio. So four Wings guards in Wemby versus four Wings guards in Chet. The spurs are winning those minutes and those are supposed to be the lineups where each team reaches its zenith. Kind of of two way ability. Maybe that's less true for the Thunder because Hardenstein's been awesome for them. If the spurs continue to win those minutes, Oklahoma City has to do one of two things. Number one, find a solution. And we've pitched some of them back and forth. I'm about to pitch another one or two or pivot in a different direction. Play two bigs more. They tried Kenrich Williams at the five more did they? And they can see them trying that the one thing that I do, you know, I mentioned on the other end, should Chet guard Wemby more? The spurs don't have to make that decision. Wemby parked on Caruso, etc. Has been fine. When I watch these games, one of the things I've wondered is instead of letting Wembanyama hang out on the baseline waiting to help and not guarding those guys, should they try to involve him in the action more? Bring Caruso up as a screener in the pick and roll Run a pick and roll with Alex Crusoe, who has played some point guard in his life and in his NBA career, get him engaged and away from the rim. Now they've tried it here and there and the Thunder or the spurs are very smart about when they see it coming. When Benyama will point and be like, you go up, I'm going to stay back here and toggle onto another guy. And maybe these rules don't even apply to him because bringing him into the play does not necessarily make me excited either because then I just have to deal with this dude in the pick and roll who's like eight foot wingspan all in my face. But it is a question that I've asked myself is do they need to try to bring him to the ball more? It's, it's, it's counterintuitive like I want the best defender on the planet in the action more. But I, I think maybe they do. Maybe it might just be 10% more, 20% more. But letting him hang out over there is not working unless Caruso starts making shots and Dort starts making shots.
- [30:58]
Kurt Goldsberry
Is there an ecological factor too? Like when we let Caruso shoot it and now Wemby's the free safety. Maybe the other shooters just aren't as open. Maybe that 30, 32, 34% three point line. Now I'll point to the shooting luck. Okay, C fans. Yeah, you guys had some bad nights shooting the ball and three bad nights.
- [31:20]
Zach Lowe
Three bad nights now.
- [31:21]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah. And it's fair to say the A.J. mitchell point is also very valid. But we're going to see this again. And when Wemby is free to roam because they're leaving Caruso wide open like the rest of the offense. The four guys have is not as potent either. Right. Including closeouts are easier and drives are harder and so forth. So I think there's an ecological impact. But you said you had a few other suggestions. I'm eager to hear what you're thinking, Zach.
- [31:49]
Zach Lowe
Well, the only one that we haven't talked about is there were a couple of possessions where Jalen Williams was sort of running point and they would start the possession with Jada bringing it up and, and Shay in the corner rocketing off a pin down, catching the ball on the move and getting into the paint that way. And I feel like that has to be part of the point of having a second all NBA level offensive player ball handler on your team is to just spice up your offense a little bit. Make the spurs sort of look around like, okay, where's Shay now? Get him moving in different spots on the floor. We he's been like you said, he's carried his weight in these games. Shay has. But it's been very, very hard for him. And when it's hard for him, that means he's dribbling a lot. Other people are standing around a lot and the spurs have a level of comfort of it. We at least know what's coming. Those couple of possessions where they sprinkled that in like put him in the post against Fox if Fox is on him, see how that looks. Just put J Dub in the post when Fox is on him, see how that looks. But just mix it up a little bit with Shay off the ball. But again there's like you still have the 8 foot wingspan dude lurking around somewhere shutting off water.
- [33:01]
Kurt Goldsberry
And as much as that is the Biggest impact, and I'll call it out. Look at the on off numbers if you don't believe me. In these three games when Victor's on the court, the spurs are a juggernaut when he's off the Thunder winning those minutes. That said, one of the things I didn't anticipate here in December of 2025 is talking about these teams below the star line, so below Wemby. And we already talked about Keldon Johnson. Champagne.
- [33:28]
Zach Lowe
Champagne is good, man. I'm glad you keep checking in.
- [33:30]
Kurt Goldsberry
He's good. Those guys, those sort of less famous players on in these rotations, the spurs guys have outplayed the Thunder equivalent in that category, the depth, which I thought the Thunder have been the deepest team over the last few years in the NBA, man. One other thing to watch is the spurs depth. We haven't even talked about Luke Cornett, like, oh, my God, these guys just look better than the Thunder equivalent, which is crazy. And I think spurs fans have a right to have a smile on their face right now because the competence starts with Wemby, don't get me wrong. But it doesn't stop there. And it had stopped there as they were getting better last year, man. But Fox and then the rotation below those guys has been great.
- [34:13]
Zach Lowe
I'm really jealous about whoever coined French Vanilla as their nickname because it's very, very good in every way that VJ Max is terrible for the Philadelphia Guards.
- [34:24]
Kurt Goldsberry
Oh, yeah.
- [34:27]
Zach Lowe
I'm glad you mentioned Cornette, because he's been perfect. It's a signing that I lauded when it happened. It's been even better than I thought. And it's an important point because I think as the spurs ascend, there's going to be a snark brigade who rightfully, as people talk about how genius the spurs are and oh, my God, after this sort of Brief Interregnum, after 20 years of being toward the top of the league, they're going to be back for another, whatever, 15, 2010, five, whatever it ends up being. They're going to say, well, I mean, I could draft Victor Wembanyama and win the lottery. I could draft Stephon Castle and move up a spot in the lottery. I could draft Dylan Harper and move up seven spots in the lottery. And it's undeniable that just as it was with Tim Duncan in 1996 or whenever, whatever draft that was, none of this happens without lottery luck. And yet other teams have had lottery luck. I think of the Pistons under Troy Weaver, had lottery luck, drafted well and fucked up the supporting cast around their young players so badly that it took a whole entire regime change and roster overhaul to make it work as they asked. The young guys improved and got better. The spurs have managed the pieces around the guys they semi first of all, you have to take Stefan Castle and you have to take Dylan Harper. And maybe those decisions were easy, maybe they weren't. The Harper one I think was pretty easy. But you have to take them. You have to take Victor Wembanyamaker. You can't overthink that one. You got to nail that one at the top of the draft. But they haven't messed up the supporting cast around them and even the coaching decisions. Like we talked about how Barnes and Vassell and Keldon, Johnson and Champagne have been really good punishing this scheme of hiding homegrown on them. It's probably not been an easy decision for Mitch Johnson, but mothballing Jeremy Sohan has been the right call. Like the Sohan Wimbanyama mix has not worked because teams put their centers on him and he was unable to punish them in the same way these guys can. So anyway, A plus this is the biggest story in the NBA and it's not close. The spurs in 12 days have taken the entire NBA season and flipped it on its head. I don't remember anything like this happening. It's as if the 2000 it's as if the 73 win warriors lost to the Clippers three times in a row in 10 days or whoever would have been the team then. And just like it doesn't happen. Any parting thoughts on this matchup?
- [36:53]
Kurt Goldsberry
It's the 12 days of spurs miss. I think that has been the greatest gift in Central and South Central Texas. We've had a complete vibe shift. A lot of us are surprised by it. I would want to end this segment with a question though to you because we are all losing our minds here in spurs land. What is the ceiling for the Spurs? Zach Low that's the question I'd end the segment with.
- [37:20]
Zach Lowe
Well, I mean look, they are 23 and 7. They are two games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder in the lost column. They are fifth in offense and fifth in defense and fourth in net rating, tied with the Knicks. I saw some breakout overnight where all their guys you mentioned Fox missed games here and there. Wemby's missed games here and there. Their record with everybody is whatever it is, is very strong or not everybody. But even three quarters of everybody. Fox and Wembanyama. I think the ceiling is they win the championship. I don't really think we need to go above that and put a win total on it or whatever. But they're 23 and seven, top five, fifth on both ends of the floor. And I said before, they're inner circle title contenders. Like, the ceiling is they win the championship. Were you looking for another answer? I'm sorry to disappoint you with the boring answer.
- [38:16]
Kurt Goldsberry
I just wanted to hear you say it. I think I just wanted to hear you say it because, like I said, I don't trust it. But, you know, I did not think this was going to happen this year. And it's happening very fast. Like you said, they're over.
- [38:27]
Zach Lowe
Under was like 44 and a half or something. Like nobody thought this was going to happen.
- [38:32]
Kurt Goldsberry
It's crazy. It's crazy. But it is the biggest story in the league. And they're also fun to watch, is the last thing I'd say. I love watching the guys.
- [38:42]
Zach Lowe
It's the holidays, special time of year. We couldn't get Mike Tirico for this segment, but we're going to do it anyway. Zach Lowe's insights to mediocrity coming from a guy with a lot of experience in how to beat be a really elite, mediocre husband, father, parent, family, man, citizen, all of it. Spilling my secrets to you. Insights to mediocrity is here. It's the holidays. Sports are on 24 7. You're gonna want to watch the sports. Let's be honest, my doors closed back here. I'm gonna whisper this. No matter what your family wants you to do, you're gonna want to watch the sports. So here's how you do it. Here's how you get away with it. Number one, stay sober. Because if you're staying sober, you're going to be able to do all the other things I'm about to do. Maybe not all the way sober, but sober enough. Number two, you got to pop out. You got to pop out a lot. And when you pop out, you got to be engaged. So it could be, hey, you want to play cards, you want to play a game, you want to play uno, you want to play Monopoly. And for that 20 minutes, 30 minutes, you are locked in, engaged. Number two, find a chore that you can do on your breaks. That's easy, but makes other people think you're really contributing to the household. Could be unloading the dishwasher, wash a few dishes, make coffee for somebody, refill a wine glass, slice cake, whatever it is. People say, oh, man, that's really nice. He came out and did stuff. Number three, for dinner, you got to be on your A game. When it's time to actually take a break and sit down, you got to be a have conversation topics ready. Be super engaged, make eye contact, refill everyone's glass, help everyone clean up afterwards. And then people wow. Then you disappear and you watch the night games for four hours. But everyone is left with good memories of you. That is a holiday insight to mediocrity. And I'm going to give you a bonus related insight to mediocrity. Find in your life a chore that you don't mind doing, doing that doesn't take very long to do, but that your spouse and or significant other hates doing. And make that one of your things. I'll give you two examples from the life of an elite mediocre person. Unloading the Dishwasher My wife hates unloading the dishwasher. Something about the clanking, the process, the fact that some of the dishes aren't dry when they get out of here. The mugs. The water coagulates the bottom of the mug. Guess who does it?
- [41:07]
Kurt Goldsberry
Me.
- [41:07]
Zach Lowe
I do it as often as I can. Love unloading the dishwasher. What's it going to take me six minutes? Dry some things off. You organize things. You got to get. Got to make sure they're clean. You put one or two dirty spoons in there because you're not paying attention. It undoes the entire effect. You take that on, you're kind of a hero. Number two Carpool to practice first of all, I love the carpool. You know why I love my daughter? I'm not that mediocre. Love my family. Love my daughter. Love eavesdropping on what she's doing with her friends. I even love to watch her sports practices. I'll pop in for 15 minutes of swim practice, see what they're doing. I'll pop in for 30 minutes of water pole practice, see what they're doing. Soccer practice. It's outside. It's delightful. But here's what, here's the trick. You can get work done. You take your laptop. There's a little conference room somewhere in the YMCA or wherever you are. You take your phone. If it's a nice soccer practice, you do a walk and talk around the field. You get your steps in. You call a source or two. You get work done. But it feels to everyone else that you've contributed a lot. Wow. I was out for two and a half hours taking care of the carpool, the practice, this and that. This. It's just. You just score the points this has been a holiday version. Zach's insights to mediocrity. You can't get this anywhere else. You can't get it anywhere else. Insights to Mediocrity. This episode is brought to you by Loom. Feeling a little stuck at work lately? Stuck in email, back and forth, stuck in endless meetings? Get your team unstuck with Loom by Atlassian. Just record your screen, your face, your voice and send quick videos that actually get the message across. Unstuck your process projects and teams with video communication from Loom. Try Loom today@loom.com. that's L O O M.com Loom. The holidays mean more travel, more shopping, more time online and more personal info in more places that could expose you more to identity theft. But LifeLock monitors millions of data points per second. If your identity is stolen, our US based restoration specialists will fix it, guaranteed your money back. Don't face drained accounts, fraudulent loans or financial losses alone. Get more holiday fun and less holiday worry with Lifelock. Save up to 40% your first year. Visit lifelock.com podcast terms apply. Are you ready to do a rapid fire around the league Christmas reaction? Hot takes. Let's get them off.
- [43:23]
Kurt Goldsberry
Okay, wait, you want hot takes? Cause I'll give you hot takes.
- [43:26]
Zach Lowe
All right, well, I'm just gonna. I'll start. You can respond or give your own hot take. All right. Hot take number one. Christmas uniforms. I don't need them. I'm happy they're gone. I don't want them ever again. The snowflake on the back is good enough for me. It makes it special enough for me. We have enough uniforms. I don't have any faith in the powers that be to not make them stupid in some way. So I'm okay. I saw an outcry. Oh, I missed the Christmas uniforms. And this. I'm cool. No more Christmas uniforms.
- [43:52]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, in fact, I'd add on. They showed a montage of like Spurs Christmas games. And like there was this awful shot of Tony Parker wearing the sleeve jersey with this giant spurs logo. And I was like, oh, get it off the screen. Yeah, I like the uniforms normal.
- [44:08]
Zach Lowe
Do you want to throw a hot take on? If you've got something you're ready to get off.
- [44:11]
Kurt Goldsberry
Go JJ Redick, dude. He says he's not going to put up with this for 53 more games.
- [44:19]
Zach Lowe
He's mad at the children. Everyone's grounded.
- [44:22]
Kurt Goldsberry
The hot take is. I'm not sure he has a choice. Zach Lowe. I don't think this defense. I think they can get better than 28th or 29th where they've been over the last 10 games. But at the point of the attack, when you have Luka and Austin Reaves, I'm not sure you can stay in front of the guards in this league, especially in the Western Conference. I don't know what the realistic expectation for the ceiling of the Lakers defense is, but I'm worried Our friend JJ is going to be very frustrated over these last 53 games because the defense of the Lakers simply isn't good enough to compete for the NBA championship.
- [44:59]
Zach Lowe
Yeah, no, no screen time for the next week. Okay? Your phones are gone, you're grounded. Very bad loss for the Lakers yesterday. Austin Reeves left the game in the first half with the calf injury. It's. It's like 10 in the morning right now. We don't have an update on that. Knock on wood. It's not serious, obviously. He just missed a week with a calf injury, so it's something to monitor. Look, we all knew the model for the Lakers coming in was like top three offense, 15th defense, Nuggets model from two years ago. That's the only hope. Yeah, I've said consistently like they're the punchers, chance team for me, like they can win any, they can compete in any single playoff series in the west. But the idea that they could win three seems far fetched to me because of their defense and the fact that their best player that their best. Let me walk that back. It's not my. LeBron comes into my head and words come out. Their second or third, probably best player. We'll see where depending on what you think of Reaves, is about to turn 41. The bottom line, and this was like really laid bare against the Rockets last night is ideally for the Lakers. You should probably work your rotation where you start all three of those dudes, Reaves, Luka and LeBron. Because you can't politically bring any of them off the bench. Reeves cannot. You can't average 29 points a game and be an all star and like be demoted six man. When you're about to become an unrestricted free agent, that's just like not a realistic thing that can happen. But it should be a rotation where you play first four minutes of each half, one comes out and then it's max two out of three on the court till crunch time, depending on the circumstances, because that's the only way we can survive defensively. The flip side of that is with only two with, with all three on the court, they kind of had to have this superpower of Somewhere we're going to be able to find a mismatch on the perimeter. Like we're going to be able to do two and three man actions where all of a sudden a little guy is on LeBron or a little guy's on Luka or. Well, when it's just two of them, it's harder to engineer that. And it was impossible for them to engineer that against the Rockets. Who, when Reed Shepherd's on the. Not on the floor, just don't play any little guys anyway. And that's the dilemma the Lakers are trapped in. I don't really know what the solution is. I also. Kirk, I know J.J. redick cares. It's his job to care for 82 games. Is it okay that I just don't care? And here's why. I just don't care. None of this was ever supposed to happen. This team was never supposed to exist in this way. And once it was enabled to exist in this way by Nico Harrison.
- [47:37]
Kurt Goldsberry
It.
- [47:37]
Zach Lowe
Was never intended to be a title contender. Right now you don't have one type of mid tier title contender, which is how the Lakers fancied themselves with Anthony Davis. And LeBron luck in to this gift from the heavens of, of completely rearranging one mid tier title contender, creating another. Except some of the leftover pieces don't. They only match team A, but not new team B and all of a sudden contend for titles in a loaded Western Conference. When you were built around LeBron, but now you're built around Luka, this is all like gravy. And yeah, they got to figure out how to build going forward if Reaves is going to be part of the core. What to do post LeBron? Do they need to make any big giant trades now? Will they only have one pick to trade? And do you really want to trade Austin Reeves? Is that really what you want to do? What are you getting in return? But like this is, this is all still gravy from the loot. The gravy Luca train is still. The Luca gravy train is still flowing.
- [48:38]
Kurt Goldsberry
Slovenian gravy, great this time of year. But I think you're right. I think this is. But it's just, it's interesting how it's manifesting. I mean, you're saying there's three teams that are have the worst defense over the last 10 games. The Wizards, check, Utah, check. And then the Lakers, like they have to be better than that. But here we are. You're not going to win a lot of games when you're giving up that many points per possession. But I think. I think it's becoming clear that this team is just flawed architecturally in a way.
- [49:11]
Zach Lowe
They haven't had time to build the house.
- [49:13]
Kurt Goldsberry
Fair enough. Yeah. And so. So I think that should affect how they look at the trade deadline. Do you extend Austin Reeves so you can just. He becomes at least a more tradable asset at that point post LeBron, what are we doing? Is he sticking around? But yeah, I think as a Laker observer, I'm starting to look towards the summer as being the most interesting part of 2026 for that Lakers organization.
- [49:36]
Zach Lowe
Now, I know Gabe Vincent was out last night and Jackson A was out last night, but I actually wrote this down because my brain was like, am I seeing this correctly? They played a lineup at one point last night that was Jake laravia, Luka Doncic, LeBron James, Jared Vanderbilt, and Maxi Kleba. And I'm like, I don't even know what that is. I mean, it's so enormous, but so slow and old that it can't. It's like a lot of these big lineups are like, oh, it's switchy. That's cool. It's so versatile. This one was like, what is this thing? It's so slow. And we should give some shine to the other team, the Rockets, who came into this game off a horrible loss to the Clippers, having lost a couple of really bad crunch time games. Lot of questions swirling about, I don't know, is this team too stagnant late in games? Are they too predictable? Do they not have enough shooting? And those are fair questions and they are predictable. And there's a lot of standing around and there's a lot of like, sengun. Save us, kd. Save us. I think what's going to get lost in the Christmas sort of hoopla of all these games is the move to start Tari Eason over. Josh Akogi is potentially a really big deal. And I kind of joked on this podcast a few episodes ago that I'm not sure how seriously I can take you when Joshua Kogi is like this heavily involved in your team and he's making shots and all that, but when you have a Kogi plus a center plus Amen Thompson, it's just so cramped that no matter how many of your own misses, you rebound, it just becomes a little too tough to score. Eason for a Kogi solves that issue. Not only that, it unlocks lineups where when Aman Thompson rests and boy, was he incredible, just eviscerating the Lakers every Matchup he wanted big, small, whatever when he rests now they can play lineups with the center is the only guy on the floor who's a non shooter. And it's like, oh my God, look at all this space the Rockets have to work with. I think Eason, his health is a big deal. Finney Smith came back like rounding out their team like that is. Don't sleep on that. That was a big deal.
- [51:44]
Kurt Goldsberry
Huge deal. And they are much better at offense than I thought they would be this season. No matter if it's a Kogi or Eason. Like the Reed shepherd thing is another thing we should call out. He looks really good. He looks like he's one of the best shooters in the NBA, period. And he's given them offensive competence, particularly as a jump shooter next to Kevin Durant. That gives that, that group actually some firepower from the perimeter, which is one of the big concerns when Van Vliet went down. So the Reed shepherd stuff, you know, I think Eme didn't really want to see this much Reed shepherd but it is worked. And look, one of the big hand up moments for me this year is I didn't think this Houston Rockets offense was going to be very good without Fred Van Vliet and they've been very good. So you know, hand up. But a lot of that has to do with Reed Shepherd. Now they get Tar Eason back who isn't emerging like is he a good catch and shoot guy? I'm still looking at the numbers, but they're starting to look promising and like he gives them another corner, but they're just a deeper team. The stat of the night though last night and I think what JJ lost his mind about was the starting front court of the Lakers, Hatchimora LeBron and who started it at the center point dominating. Those three dudes combined for six rebounds. Zach Lowe, Albertson Goon had 12. So just they got their ass kicked the old fashioned way in the Moses Malone sense on the glass. And I think that just really, you know, when you play the Rockets, you know you have to rebound and they just didn't, didn't answer the bell there.
- [53:18]
Zach Lowe
Well, LeBron's 40 rui has never been a good rebounder and dominating. Just look Alper and Shengun and Steven Adams are going to beat the shit out of you. And you're either ready for that or you're not. And you either want all that smoke or you don't because it's not, it's not fun. Eason. One thing Ethan's catching 23 has been amazing. I'll tell you this. And he reminded everybody why it was the Terror Twins last year. And not just Amen Thompson. That dude will take the ball from you. You're a little casual with it. Like hold it like a little loaf of bread. That dude's stealing it. And going the other way. He will take your cookies.
- [53:52]
Kurt Goldsberry
Four steals last night.
- [53:54]
Zach Lowe
Hot take. Christmas takeaway. Stupid Christmas takeaway. Number number two for me. We need a floor. We need a floor for teams promoting their own players for All Star. I'm sorry, Indiana Pacers. I can't see a tweet where it's like vote Benedict Matheran. Your. Your count. Your votes count triple today. Charlotte Hornets, I'm calling you out. Vote Brandon Miller, who's barely played the entire season. Your votes count triple today. Cavs.com vote the entire core four for all star. Don't ignore. Just ignore the fact that Jared Allen gets benched in crunch time every game. And Darius Garland, who's barely played. Here's the case for Darius Garland. We need a floor. We need Adam Silver to impose a floor of just like this is the worst player that can be tweeted for All Star votes. That's all.
- [54:43]
Kurt Goldsberry
Do you have a candidate? We need to name this.
- [54:45]
Zach Lowe
The.
- [54:46]
Kurt Goldsberry
The. The blank threshold. Is it like a Zach Levine? I'm trying to think of who else it could be.
- [54:53]
Zach Lowe
No.
- [54:53]
Kurt Goldsberry
If your team.
- [54:54]
Zach Lowe
If your team is. Is more than five games below.500, you're disqualified from any kind of tweets. So I will say I would call it either the Dylan Brooks or Josh Hart rule. Very good. Players like you could make actual cases for those guys to be Fringe All Stars. Anything below that, I just don't want to see it.
- [55:19]
Kurt Goldsberry
I have a hot take.
- [55:20]
Zach Lowe
Christmas. Take number three. Four. Nicole Jokic is the MVP of the league again.
- [55:26]
Kurt Goldsberry
I had that. That was mine.
- [55:28]
Zach Lowe
Okay, go.
- [55:29]
Kurt Goldsberry
I just looked at the betting markets. Whether you're looking at FanDuel or you're one of these, you know, these whiz bangs is looking at Poly Market. Yeah. We have a horse race again, and one of the horses is gaining on the other one. Or we have a two horse race past them. Yeah. And then according to Zach Lowe, Nicole Jokic past sga. As the Thunder have gone through this three game slide against the Spurs, Nicole Jokic, with many of his comrades in.
- [55:56]
Zach Lowe
In.
- [55:56]
Kurt Goldsberry
In street clothes, has looked as good as ever. 56, 16 and 15. I know we said that earlier, but that's insane. That's. That's an absolutely crazy stat line. 18 points in overtime on a Christmas night win fouled out Rudy Gobert. The assists are insane. The mid range game, his ability, as you pointed out earlier, to hit two huge threes down the stretch in that game, that's not even the strongest part of his portfolio. But when he needs it, oh, I'll be a 45, three point, 45% three point shooter right now. That's fine. He's the best player in the world. It's not close. And you're right, he is now the MVP favorite.
- [56:36]
Zach Lowe
He was the best player last year. I think we all agreed he was the best player last year. Most valuable has always allowed that V word, has always allowed for a little bit of fun cognitive wiggle room. And what happened last year was A Shay had an unbelievable, historic Jordanesque season in which he was neck and neck with Jokic and sometimes a little bit ahead of him in all the advanced stats that Jokic usually laps the field in by a mile and B the Thunder won like 18 more games than the Nuggets or some crazy number of games. And at some point, if it's that close statistically, and it was close last year, it was actually close. And one team wins that many more games, even if that team is built in ways that the other team can't dream about to win regular season games, the historic significance of the win total to me just becomes the tie breaking deciding factor. What's happened this year is there is no big win gap. Right now it's three games and three fifths of Denver's starting lineup is injured. Two fifths of it has been injured for quite a while and now Cam Johnson's going to be out four to six weeks according to Chris Haynes, which is a big blow for them. He had just started to get going so the wins gap thing has vanished. And if you look at the advanced stats that that sort of neck and neck thing is not the case this year. Whether it's Vorp or Bipham or Schnorps or Windshares or whatever per whatever thing you want to do. It's not neck and neck. Jokic has a big edge in pretty much all the you can find one here and there like the dunks and three is adjusted plus minus. Shay's still a little bit ahead. But this is a different landscape than last year where we all understand who the best player is and all the other arguments have now it's just one day past Christmas, tons of stuff could happen but Jokic has reclaimed the throne. We agree.
- [58:29]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, no notes. My Hot take. Sort of related to the Spurs. The NBA is talking about changing their tanking rules. And I'm just going to say, can we please get it right this time? Let's fix tanking for real this time. It's a scourge on the league. Yes, I believe the spurs have sort of inspired this with their number one, number four, number two picks and consecutive drafts and sort of taken the fast lane to the top of the NBA. But it came out last week. I know you briefly addressed it on your last show, Zach, but dude, this is a big deal. Tanking is an embarrassment to the NBA and I want to get your thoughts on. You know, is there a solution that you're really sort of excited about or in favor of? Do you think there's anything the league can do? It's a very hard problem, but they got to get it right. What are your thoughts?
- [59:25]
Zach Lowe
I would like to hear more from experts who can model this idea that the lottery positions are determined by some formula where you up until a certain date it's losses like it is now, the losing, his teams have the best odds and then after that date you get some form of credit for wins. I don't know exactly how that would work, but there's something about that that I like. Because the last two months of the season are so abysmal in so many places in the NBA, I need to learn about the ripple effects of that more. I don't know how I feel about this idea that you can't pick in the top whatever two years in a row or three years in a row because that might have some unintended consequences that I'm not sure have been thought through all the way, including if I'm team B and I know that team A who's wor in me is prohibited from picking in the top three or whatever. Does that make me more likely to then tank? Does it just sort of shift the tanking incentives the other way? The odds I like. I like where the odds are now, how they. How they squeeze them a little bit so that it's less profitable to be the worst team. Even though it hasn't really changed teams behavior all that much. Is there room to squeeze them a little bit more? I don't know. I don't like a totally equal lottery. I don't like the more radical idea that all 30 teams have an equal chance at every pick or that the even more radical idea that the best team should pick first. Because I think those, to me I've always said they sound like good Ideas until the Thunder get the first pick in the draft. Now, ironically, the Thunder may end up getting the first pick in the draft, but. But I agree. But the overall, the overall solution to all of the NBA's problems is not alcohol, like Homer Simpson once said, although that is a great solution. Cause of and solution to all of life's problems is shortening the season. It's the silver bullet for everything. And you might ask, like, well, how does this impact tanking? It impacts tanking because if it's a 55 game season and I'm the Jazz and I get off to like a much better start than I anticipated, I'm not bailing out with 30 games left versus 60 games left when I have actual time to bail out. So I don't know. Do you have any that you like? Because I. This is, this problem is going to keep happening, obviously.
- [61:58]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I don't. And like, I know the people who are working on at the league office and I would just say that's a hard problem, but we got to get it right. I think we're the only league in the world where teams aren't trying to win every game on purpose. Like, that's, that's a big issue. And when you watch youth sports, you watch college sports, the idea that a team would be losing on purpose is insane. And we have to get out of that somehow. So I don't have one. And I would, I would also add, like, the current CBA has made free agency harder and made trades harder. So building through the draft and first round picks are more valuable than ever. Zachary. And so that is only sort of steering more tanking behavior. So I think there's this macroeconomic sort of thing that they've set up where, okay, it's harder to trade for good players, it's harder to get free agents. So it's almost steering more of us towards the bottom of the standings in the top of the draft. So I don't have a solution. I know it's a hard problem, but I want to see it more than anything. That's. That's my Christmas wish, I guess.
- [63:03]
Zach Lowe
Okay, two more Christmas quick Christmas questions and then we'll go number one. Do you feel if you are Kenny Atkinson or Kobe Altman more confident in your team or less confident in your team after coming in a couple nice wins of Charlotte? I don't really care you beat Charlotte and the Pelicans. Whatever rickety season for the Cavs I've been at. I went to the Bulls, lost last week when the Bulls embarrass him and ran them out of the gym. Put me up to DEFCON 1. I'm officially going down to DEFCON 2. But how much do you feel more confident? Better? Worse. After competing against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden and ultimately blowing a lead to Tyler Kolek, Jordan Clarkson, Mitchell Robinson and the rest of the Knicks, how are you feeling today?
- [63:49]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I'm feeling better. I think I feel much better. We're getting healthy, you know, we haven't had our whole team much. I don't feel great. So it's not like, hey, everything's great here, but I feel much better, dude. And if they would have won that game, which kind of got either way last night or yesterday afternoon in New York City, I would feel great. But I feel good. Let's see everybody. Garland making plays, Mobley making plays. Less load on Donovan. Mitchell. Let's get back to hole. They've played 32 games. There's 50 left. Can we win 30 or 32 of those 50 and feel good about it going into the playoffs? I feel much better than I did a few weeks ago or I guess a week or two ago.
- [64:31]
Zach Lowe
I feel. I feel better, too. I'm officially going to Defcon 2. They win their next game. I'm going to. I'm going to call it CavsCon. I'm going to CavsCon 3 if they win their next game. Garland, this is about a week and a half now of him looking like Darius Garland. Now I need to see it sustain without these setbacks that happen for two, three weeks, a month, whatever, before I really get confident. I think they know if the Knicks are the measuring stick in the east, which I think they are along. Maybe the Pistons are right there with them. But I think the Cavs know a good plan of attack for the Knicks. They go at towns on the pick and roll with all their guards. They have screen the screener plays where they make him run through a gauntlet and move his feet and all that. They hunt Brunson. I think they have a pretty good offensive game plan. And Merrill getting healthy has sort of reinforced the idea that movement shooter in the starting five, eventually Max Schuss is a better fit than DeAndre Hunter in the starting five. Obviously, Mobley came back okay. All of those. And by the way, it feels like Donovan Mitchell's effective field goal percentage when the Cavs are down by six in the last minute of the game is like 5,020%. It's just like he just never misses. And he dunked the entire entirety of Madison Square Garden late in that game. It's not just every shot there spectacular.
- [65:46]
Kurt Goldsberry
In a possession that's supposed to be like a lockdown defensive possession, he goes in like video game dunks it. It's on the easiest level. I do agree with that. He is one of the guys you want to have with the ball at the end of a of a clutch game. Now they are at Houston, at San Antonio in the next few days, then home for Phoenix, Denver, Detroit. So this five game span is a real test. We'll see when next time I'm on the Zach Low show What level of CavsCon we're both on. But keep your eyes on the Cavs. I think they're the right team to watch over the next week or two.
- [66:18]
Zach Lowe
Can I make the counter argument about why I can only go down to Cavscon 2 and not Cavscon 3 after a very strong Christmas showing?
- [66:26]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, of course.
- [66:28]
Zach Lowe
Number one, I blew a lead. Number two, Mitchell Robinson ate Jared Allen's lunch on the offensive glass for like the seventh consecutive season it feels like. And Jared Allen had seven points only a couple times where he asserted his size. He had a post up against Josh Hart and a face up drive by Mitchell Robinson. Other than that, I've seen this movie before with Mitchell Robinson. Obviously Mitchell Robinson's health is a little bit of a question mark for the Knicks, but like I don't feel and cat with the Knicks, I think up two in the last minute of the game just zooms right around Evan Mobley for an offensive rebound on the left baseline and a put back to put the Knicks up by four. The way they lost, falling from ahead and getting bullied by a team that the Knicks. The Knicks aren't perfect. The Knicks wouldn't be the favorites in the finals against whoever comes out of the West. The Knicks are going to have a hard time getting out of the East. Even though they've been my pick, they always leave you wanting a little bit. Obviously they have defensive issues and all of this. The one thing you could not question about them is they are a resilient, tough effing team who is never out of a game and there's something about their spirit that I find irresistible. But the manner of that loss, getting bullied on the glass by the Knicks big guys is like PTSD for me if I'm a Cavs person.
- [67:43]
Kurt Goldsberry
Oh, that's a good point. And just a quick shout out to Mitchell Robinson who turned the NBA cup final around with his incredible activity on the glass in Vegas. And again on Christmas. Like he's one of my favorite rotation players. Just the American, Stephen Adams. Many are calling him just a great offensive weapon on the glass for the Knicks and turning missed shots into second chances as well as anybody this side of Stephen Adams is. It's incredible and he gives them just a huge energy piece for a team that doesn't really have that when he's off. And colect too, by the way. So the Mike Brown era in New York, some of this depth is changing the looks at the end of game. Some options with Josh Hart or whatever. But Mitchell Robinson, man, what a run he's had the last week or two.
- [68:32]
Zach Lowe
Well, Josh Hart went out too at the end of that game. Hopefully. Again we're recording this in the morning. We don't know the news. Hopefully it's not serious. Josh Hart seems to be one of those people who falls and tweaks something and gets right back up. The last thing that we need to address is Anthony Davis got injured. Groin spasms against the warriors left the game early. I don't really even know what to say because growing spasms. Again, we don't know the news. It could be day to day. It could be two weeks. It could be a month. I'm beginning to. I don't even think worry is the right word. I'm beginning to think this is just it for the Mavs this year, that just doing nothing is the right move across all fronts. I don't think. Look, if he's out a month, there's not going to be an Anthony Davis trade. No team is going to give you major stuff for a guy who's injured yet again. I never thought there was going to be a huge market for him. Anyway, as I've discussed, I just think the Mavs are everyone is fretting in Dallas because this is the only draft pick they control for the next five years. This is their one chance to tank and get a high draft pick. And so that sort of fueled the trade. AD this and that. I just don't think there's a really good ad trade. They're 7 and 5 in their last 12 games. There's something fun happening with Cooper and Anthony Davis together and no matter what they did, I don't think they could out lose any of the following teams. I don't think they can out lose Utah because of the pick that Utah owes. I don't think they could out lose Sacramento because they're Sacramento. I don't think they could out lose the Wizards. Wizards. I don't think they can out lose the Pacers, who are in the greatest one year tank position since the spurs tank for Tim Duncan. And I actually, despite the fact that they're playing really frisky ball and some of the young guys are starting to pop a little bit, I don't think they can out lose the Nets. And so if I'm stuck in that netherworld, I'm not making an Anthony Davis trade that sucks just to make it, particularly now since he's injured. I'm riding it out. I'm going to sort of organically soft tank my way and hope the lottery guards are kind to me like they were last year. Maybe not this kind. And I'm coming back next year with AD and Kyrie and Cooper Flag. And I'm actually not. Not that I'm taking a shot, but I'm fine with that as the outcome and postponing this, but it just sucks to see this dude limp off the floor like once every whatever weeks. It just sucks. I'm sorry.
- [71:05]
Kurt Goldsberry
It sucks. I think that's where this lands. I think they, they don't do anything major with Kyrie or ad. Obviously they have Cooper flag. He looks better every week. By the way, the Nets have the best defense in the NBA over the last.
- [71:19]
Zach Lowe
In the last month. In the last month they're second. I think they might be first now after what's happened with the spurs of the Oklahoma City.
- [71:25]
Kurt Goldsberry
Yeah, I just did my efficiency landscape post and I noticed that they'd won six through the last 10. Their defense is better than the Thunder over the last 10 games, which is a stunning stat. So maybe they're not tanking. But look, I think the last few drafts we've seen guys teams move up, whether it's the spurs to get Harper or obviously the Dallas Mavericks themselves to get Cooper Flag. So the soft tank, letting Cooper develop. You know, I think in a Western Conference, that's the best you can hope for. And then maybe you luck out again and you come back with an incredible new rookie next year and you have Kyrie healthy and AD ready to go and Cooper Flag in year two and. And you could make some noise. I do think that's where this lands. I do think that's how they should approach it. Now maybe Gafford or PJ Washington, there's a different answer there and they're able to get some assets back. But yeah, in terms of ad, I don't think there's anything coming down the pike.
- [72:20]
Zach Lowe
Kurt Goldsberry, it's a pleasure to podcast with you as always. Happy holidays. I hope Santa was good to you other than the NBA games that we got. And I will see you soon, my friend.
- [72:32]
Kurt Goldsberry
Happy New Year, Zach Lowe.
- [72:35]
Zach Lowe
All right, that's it. Hope everyone had a great holiday. Hope everyone's having a great holiday. Stay safe out there. Behave on New Year's Eve. Thanks to Mike, Billy and Jonathan on production. Thanks to the one and only Kurt Goldsberry for joining. Thanks to you for listening to and watching the Zach Lowe show. Must be 21 or over in president select states for Kansas and was it affiliation with Kansas Star Casino or 18 and over in President D.C. kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem. Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org chat in Connecticut or visit mdgamblinghelp.org in Maryland. Hope is here. Visit gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24. 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-867-78-HOPE NY or text HOPE NY in New York.