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Can Anyone Challenge Jonas Vingegaard? | Vuelta a España Stage 2 Analysis & Stage 3 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:28:55
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jonas Vingegaard's statement performance to win the second stage of the Vuelta a España, which sees him ride into the race lead and build up a small early lead on his GC rivals. Before they go, they...
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- [00:00]
A
And then also Jonas Vinegard. Were you surprised he celebrated so early, like he knew he had it and that was a pretty close finish.
- [00:07]
B
Yeah, I mean, if you, if, then if you see the photo finish, it's, it's actually not that big of a margin. But they know, you know, these guys know and especially it's a small margin. But also, let's not forget, you know, they're not going super fast on an uphill finish. So they know, they know it's. If it's a high speed sprint and it's such a small margin, you can say, okay, I didn't really. But you know, this is just that fraction of a millise second longer that you have. So I mean, both of them. Chona knew he didn't win and Jonas knew he won.
- [00:41]
A
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are breaking down stage two of the Valta Espano won by Jonas Finagard ahead of Julio Chone and David Godu and Egan Bernal and Jalameda, with Vinegar taking an early and slight race lead. And then at the end, we will predict tomorrow's stage three. But Johan, just right off the top, what were your main takeaways from today's, let's call it a mini summit finish in the Piedmont region of Italy? Yeah, well, surprise.
- [01:10]
B
I mean, first of all, I was surprised that it stayed together such a long time with such a big group. I mean, when I looked at the stage yesterday, I would have expected there be a bigger selection. The climb was not as hard as I expected, at least not the majority of the climb. But still, you know, we still have the result that we kind of were expecting. We thought Ciccone could win this. He almost got it. Jonas won the stage with a very small margin. But then if you think about, you know, what happened a month ago, let's not forget Jonas Winkegaard was the only rider who was able to follow today Pogacher in the last week and actually sometimes really match him. We don't know whether that was because Pugacha was sick or he was tired or he was, you know, but anyways, he was at the level of Pugacha. So if you look at that Jonas from a month ago and compare him to the field that is here, it's, you could say it's only logical he wins. Right? The only thing we didn't know, and we still don't know, but is what he did between the Tour and the Vuelta and, and how in. In which Shape, he would show up. Obviously, today those questions are answered. He's in good shape. It's. It's a hard, It's a hard way to start a Grand Tour. Yesterday's sprint stage, but still today, uphill finish. Everybody's nervous. Nobody really knows what to expect or how your legs will respond after a break. And so I think most, some of those answers are. We have those answers today, not just, not just about Jonas. Also, you know, go do ego Bernal. That's. I think for Bernal, that's a great result for his morale at least. And then, you know, all the other favorites, Almeida, you saw o', Connor, Jay Hindley, Jorgensen, they're all up there. They're two seconds behind. Not a big deal. The only rider who lost some time is Antonio Tiberi, lost 21 seconds. Not a great start. Not a disaster either. It has happened in the past that somebody has kind of, you know, difficulties to get going, especially early in a Grand Tour. So, yeah, I think, you know, the, how do you say that? The, the picking order of the favorites has been respected. More or less, I would say.
- [03:43]
A
Yeah. I mean, the thing I was most impressed about. Yeah. The funny thing about Vinegar is we don't really know, like, he could have. He could actually be quite a bit weaker than he was in the third week of the Tour, but it looks like he's stronger because he's not racing against Pagatjar. But he looked, he looked pretty, pretty stinking good today, especially since with like 28k to go, I mean, the big takeaways from the stage before the final climb. Q 36.5 Tom Pickax team worked pretty much all day to control the breakaway. I don't know, I, I never really bought into the Pitcock hype for the stage win, but at the same time, what else are they going to do? You know, you came to this race to win stages like this. Maybe you gotta put the team on the front, even if you're not the favorites. Then with around 26k to go, the. Almost the entire Visma team and a good chunk of the Q36.5 team, they're riding on the right side of the road. It's raining like, it starts raining quite hard. It's slippery going through a roundabout. They crash. It looks pretty bad for a little bit, like, you know, like Axel Zingle was really slow to get up. Vinderard is bleeding on his elbow and he, I thought he looks pretty dinged up. He gave a thumbs up as he was chasing back on to the to the camera as he was chasing back onto the peloton. I kind of thought that was a bluff, but clearly it wasn't because they hit the funnel climb, as you say, so fast. Like going over 30k an hour on the 4 and a half to 5% pitches at the bottom didn't even. I didn't even notice they were on the climb for a long time because they were going so fast and the peloton was so big. But right when it starts to get steep with around 4k to go, Visma gets Jonas right to the front. Like he's sitting second wheel basically from 4K to go to when he comes around Chicone to win the stage with two meters to go. So super, super impressive. Like you have to be fit to do that. You have to be focused. Like, even though the team crashed quite close to the final climb, they were able to regroup mentally and physically and pull that off. I was really impressed by that. I was also equally unimpressed by it's. I'm already worried about my Almeida pick because UAE when Pagacho's not there, they just kind of look lost. Like, Ayuso and Almeida were in pretty good position. You know, they're kind of freelancing in the group mark SOL with 600k to go or 800k to go and it all kind of goes sideways from there. It's like, well, what is Solaire doing? I guess he's pulling out Sepkus and forcing him to pull earlier than he wanted to. But the group kind of gets shuffled. Almeida and AO are never in good position after that. And they lose time. They lose 2 seconds of real time, 10 seconds of time bonus. So that's 12 seconds they lose to vinegar. Not really what you want to do on a stage that you're probably physically equal to someone on. And then also Jonas vinegard. Were you surprised he celebrated so early. Like he knew he had it and that was a pretty close finish.
- [06:26]
B
Yeah, I mean, if you, if, then if you see the photo finish, it's. It's actually not that big of a margin. But they know, you know, I mean, these guys know and especially it's a small margin. But also, let's not forget, you know, they're not going super fast on an uphill finish. So they know, they know it's. If it's a high speed sprint and it's such a small margin, you can say, okay, I didn't really. But you know, this is just that fraction of a millisecond longer that you have. So I mean, both of them. Chicono knew he didn't win and Jonas knew he won. So I mean, it's impressive to.
- [07:00]
A
To see.
- [07:00]
B
I mean, after that crash. Spencer. Okay, it looks spectacular. Of course. And, you know, when it was actually Jonas who went down first. Right. He looked like kind of.
- [07:13]
A
It's a helicopter shot. It was hard to see. Exactly.
- [07:16]
B
I saw some images from. From an onboard camera of the guy who was in Jonas, and so you could see him go down and then a few other guys. These kind of crashes and, you know, at. At like higher speeds, but with a lot of water on the road, they tend to be okay as long as you don't hit a curb. It's. It's not bad. I don't know if you saw the story, by the way of Axel Zangle, Spencer. I just, I mean, I read that. I mean, he was. He was occupied quite a bit there with the ambulance and then got going again. So apparently he. He has a history of having to pop, pop in his shoulder sometimes, like, he dislocates his shoulder. It's a weak point, and he knows how to put it back into place. So I read. I read an interview of him after the finish that said that he was at the ambulance, so they were kind of assisting him to put his shoulder back into place so he could keep going, which is already unbelievable if you think about it.
- [08:19]
A
He looked like he was in a lot of pain.
- [08:20]
B
Yeah. And so he said that before he went in the ambulance, he. There was somebody there talking to him, you know, so it must have been a spectator. He said, okay, hold my bike. You know, gets in the ambulance. He comes out of the ambulance, bike stolen. The guy, the bike was gone. So the bike disappeared in the middle of the race. Only in Italy. Only in Italy.
- [08:46]
A
Bike stuff is out of control in that region, man.
- [08:48]
B
And so, yeah, he must have gone on with a. With a. With a spare bike, I imagine. But. But yeah, that was. That was quite the story. That.
- [08:58]
A
That is quite the story. Can you. I don't think I'd feel very good if an injured pro cyclist gave me his bike and I stole it. Yeah, I'd feel pretty bad about myself. But what, what were your. Like, how do you feel about the gc like, so, obviously, Jonas is very concerningly strong for me. I thought he looked. I think he looked good. I'm afraid at this point, Chicona gets second. I. I thought he would win. Our picks yesterday were chicone and vinegard, so we weren't really surprised. Do you think Chicone is A serious, I'd say podium contender in the gc. Based on this.
- [09:32]
B
No, I mean, nothing points into that. I mean, he's in great shape. And let's not forget, you know, he had a bad crash into Giro, had to readjust and, you know, prepared really well after the Giro and during the Tour. The proof, you know, he came back one San Sebastian was great in Burgos, but I think he's going for stage wins, man. I mean, he's never been, you know, he's never been in a great position in overall in a Grand Tour.
- [10:00]
A
Never finished top 10. So.
- [10:01]
B
Okay. So, hey.
- [10:02]
A
Yeah. In his 30s.
- [10:04]
B
Yeah. You know, this is always going to be your first time. Right. When somebody does it. So in this field, I. I think he can. He can do great. But for some reason. Oh, something always seems to happen to him. Yeah. I mean, today, today, listen, isn't. He did a great race. His team did a great lead out at the end and he just got beaten by Jonas Winkegaard. There's no shame in that. Right. But no, I don't. I don't think Chicona for. For the podium is at. As for now, based on what we've seen in the past, I think there's other writers for that. There's, you know, there's. There's, of course, there's Jonas, there's almeida, there's Ayuso, S.J. hindley, there's Ben O'. Connor, there's, you know, even Matteo Jorgensen. Guys who have been on the podium or close to the podium already, some of them even Grand Tour winners. So I think we have to consider those always before Julie Chicone.
- [11:08]
A
Yeah. I mean, I wouldn't even have notes for Ciccone on the just. I thought he launched at a good spot. I thought everything was good. And then vinegar's just too strong, too fast. People are saying like, oh, a newfound speed. But I don't know, he's kind of always been pretty strong. Right. If you're getting the KOM on the Colder Rats, you're pretty good.
- [11:25]
B
Yeah, pretty good.
- [11:26]
A
Power uphill. Yeah.
- [11:29]
B
He's the second best stage racer in the world. So what. I mean, nobody should be surprised by today's result.
- [11:37]
A
I would say 2. 2. I was really surprised by David Godu. Egan Bernal, same time, third and fourth. Very good finishes. Just because I had so many question marks about both of them and they both look so sharp. Someone I. I also. Speaking of.
- [11:52]
B
Sorry to interrupt. Spencer, before I forget. Go. Do you know, we. And I. I don't want to start you know, I don't want to open a can of worms, but, you know, go do. I've seen the picture of him, whether it was before this. I think it was before the start. He is unrecognizable. He looks so skinny. He's never been like, his face looks like a knife. He's like, he's unbelievably skinny. You know, didn't do the Tour because he was. He didn't feel great. You know, is this gonna, you know, tie into the debate? You know, there's been all these debates about Pauline and losing the weight and, you know, other of the competitors. I wouldn't say criticize, I mean, being critical of it, which is something I still don't understand, but that's another debate. But Godu looks sharper than ever. So, you know, we all know he's a talented rider. He's done really well in the Vuelta already in the past, guess he's been top five. He's won a few stages already, so. And he's. He needs to, he needs to get a result, you know, because he's one of the highest paid writers of his team, if not the highest paid writer, and had no results this year or very results.
- [13:17]
A
Terrible year. Terrible year. He moved, I think to the south of France or something last year. And then what's funny about the Pauline Ferrand Prevost is one of someone on production Team Colton after the first stage of the femmes was like, she looks really skinny. Like, should we bet on her? And I, I didn't do it. But then I was like, oh, yeah, that makes sense. So, yeah, like, we probably should pay attention to that. With Godu, like, he looks really. I don't want to say good. I don't want to like deify being skinny. Just look sharp. Looks ready to go.
- [13:44]
B
Yeah.
- [13:45]
A
Jai Henley finished in seventh. For someone I had a lot of question marks about. I was pretty impressed by that. Should we be concerned about uae Johan, how do you feel about their performance from the day?
- [13:57]
B
I think they're where they have to be. I mean, a guy like Almeida also, you know, crashed in the Tour, comes back now, has trained, but, you know, losing two seconds is. It's more a mental meaning than anything else. You know, it's like, okay, you know, it's when you're up there and you're. When their guy. When the few big engines start going, all of a sudden you kind of have to say, oh, wow, my legs are not here. I can't go. I don't have that Sixth gear or that seventh gear that a race. Race car has. I'm not reading too much more into it. I think they're where they have to be. It's not another big deal. I mean, it's more a mental. I mean, for Vingegaard, it's a mental game. I mean, it's a mental win. And for those two guys, it's okay, yeah, we're here, but we lost two seconds. It's not the end of the world. No big deal, but we would have preferred to be in the same time.
- [14:56]
A
I almost think they. It almost looked at their struggles were structural versus fitness, like, just even being in the right. They just seem to always struggle to be in the right position. It was. It was chaotic. It was a fast, chaotic final kilometer. They're just like, I don't really. I'm worried about the team. I'm just like. I don't fully get, like, why is Mark Solaire not just looking after them? Like, why is he adding chaos to.
- [15:20]
B
An artistic situation that was. I cannot imagine something like that. That's not a command that. That comes from the car. That's just the rider.
- [15:29]
A
Yeah.
- [15:30]
B
You know, acting on instinct, which, you know, didn't really make any difference. Well, I'm. The guy I'm really surprised about today is Egan Bernal, because this is not a finish for him. This is an explosive last kilometer. He's more of a diesel on the. So, I mean, him being up there, not losing any time, knowing where, you know, he was. I think he was sixth in Tour of Burgers or something, but never really in the. In the race to win. And, you know, now the first appointment, being up there with. With the other. With Chicone and Godu and Bernal, that's. That's good for his morale. That's mental win for him.
- [16:12]
A
Yeah. Not to pour too much cold water on that, but I thought that's. This all seems very familiar. And then we're back to stage seven of the Jira d'. Italia, like, explosive uphill finish. Bernal was third, and we're like, whoa, this guy's flying. And then they get to the hard climbs, and he. He's underperforming relative to his explosive climbing at the Giro. So I don't. I do want to. I do want to see him in. In Andorra. Before we get too excited about that.
- [16:36]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [16:37]
A
One quick question for you before we go to the preview for tomorrow. So Tom Pitcock teamworks all day for this finishes. He was in perfect position, finishes 10th. It's just didn't have the horsepower to go with those guys. Like what, what's the path forward here for Pidcock? And because he's going to pay a lot of money on that team, that team's putting a lot behind him. I'm sure they came to this race with the idea of stage wins, plural. But Pidcock, I look, he's only won one Grand Tour stage in his career. Like are these unrealistic expectations at a certain point for him?
- [17:10]
B
I think he's exploring, you know, what, where his, where his limits are. I mean, he said stage wins and, and the top 10, which I think is possible. I mean Pitcock can be top 10 in the world. That is, there's no doubt about that in my mind. Whether he will do it or not, that's different. I think it's going to be, have a lot to do with his mental determination, you know, because once he sees that, let's, let's, let's, let's be clear that, you know, podium would be extremely surprising. I don't see that happening over a whole podium. No, no, no, I don't, I don't see that happening.
- [17:48]
A
He's never been top, he's never been top 10 in a grand Tour before.
- [17:51]
B
But he's never gone for it either. Yeah, you know, maybe in the Giro, but this Giro he did, he did not prepare for the Giro. Has he prepared now specifically for the Vuelta? I also don't think so.
- [18:06]
A
But at a certain point you have to prepare. You can't just.
- [18:09]
B
Well, he did mountain bike races and stuff. So, you know, I, I'm, I keep saying that Pidcock is obviously a huge talent. He has tremendous potential, including for Grand Tours, I think. But he needs to focus on it. He needs to prepare for them and not just a few months. This is like a two, three year career decision. If he wants to explore that, he needs to change his calendar, he needs to change his style of racing. This, this, you know, the only, the only thing that I can see where it could be a weak point is the time crawling. Because he's, you know, he's super light but he's small, so he's aerodynamic. But the way he climbs on one day races or sometimes and you know, like he, on, on, on like arctic race, he, you know, he won that, he won that uphill finish in the Saudi Tour. Okay. It's not against the biggest field, but the guy has potential to climb. Yeah, he's a huge engine. He, he's slight, he's light and he's a Damn good bike rider. Now, to me, it seems like it's a focus. I mean, he needs to focus and make up his mind whether he wants to do this or not. He's given interviews already that said. Yeah, I don't want to really be focusing on three weeks now. The question is, and I don't have the answer, I don't have the information. Is he here because his team got invited? And the condition for his team to be invited at the Vuelta and at the Giro, he got two invitations for both of those races is obviously depending on his presence. They're not going to invite Q36.5 without Tom Pitcock. So he's also a bit stuck in that situation. Right. Obviously, if the team Q36.5 gets the invitation, they're going to take it and then Pitcock needs to go.
- [20:04]
A
So it's.
- [20:06]
B
Yeah, it's, it's a question mark whether he, whether. I mean, he said in interviews he wants to go for top 10 and, and stage wins. Now, would you be impressed or if Pidcock is seventh or eighth in the Vuelta, is that really something that adds to his curriculum? My answer is no. It doesn't add anything.
- [20:27]
A
But, but as a smart cycling man, Johan, you would be impressed because you would say you can't go from nothing to everything. You have to have stepping stones in your career. And he has to at some point finish sixth. Seventh, yeah, fifth. He can't just like, show up and win after never having, Never having a result.
- [20:46]
B
Well, I'm not saying about winning. I'm saying going for podium, you know, but then, then again, you know, I personally think, I mean, and I don't know Tom Pitcock personally at all. I'm just going off what I think he is, how he think, how I think he is as a, as a character and what I read in interviews, this guy's a winner, you know, podium, even, even third place. It's, it's not what Pitcock make. It does not make him tick. This guy wants to win races.
- [21:16]
A
I don't think he has the attention span for three races is my personal.
- [21:20]
B
That's diagnosis. That's what I think. That's what I think. It would take a shift in his mind and, and a whole turnaround of his program and the way how you plan towards a Grand Tour. And then the question is, what's the possibility of success? It's, it's, it's an unknown territory, so is it worth it?
- [21:43]
A
So if you're always thinking like, ah, it could be a mountain bike worlds that seems nice. Like, you're never gonna. It's just gonna seem like an annoyance. I mean, I'm confused because I remember him speaking in November saying, I didn't ever want to go for gc. Ineos made me do that.
- [21:57]
B
Yeah. Yeah.
- [21:57]
A
And then this rolls around and suddenly he's going for top 10. It's like. It does seem like maybe that's what Q 36.5 wants, not what he wants.
- [22:07]
B
Yeah.
- [22:08]
A
The stage wins is tough because today it's kind of perfect.
- [22:12]
B
Today was a Bangkok stage. Today was a Bangkok stage. Yeah.
- [22:15]
A
He's not going to win if it's a tougher finish.
- [22:17]
B
And so it's also. I mean, if you look at the stages he's won this year, that kind of stages, and you see the competition. You see the competition here, it's a different game.
- [22:29]
A
Yeah. Yeah. Well, do you know who finished on the same time? Edison and his Arctic Tour win.
- [22:34]
B
Yeah. Corbin Strong.
- [22:35]
A
Corbin Strong. So Corbin Strong is like a. Like a sprinter.
- [22:39]
B
He's a versatile sprinter.
- [22:41]
A
Yeah.
- [22:42]
B
Yeah.
- [22:42]
A
Just. Yeah. It's. At some point, I wonder, like, are these just unrealistic expectations on him? It's clearly not. Today did not look like a guy locked into the gc.
- [22:53]
B
Yeah. But, yeah, I think I. I still think, you know, if. Listen, until you don't. I mean, at the end of the day, he's there. He's only lose. He's only two seconds behind. That's, you know, that's the difference between great legs and good legs. Right. There's always a chance there could have been a chance. I think they were right to try to go for it, because until you don't get to that final and that final sprint of the last 300 meters, you don't know everybody. All those guys like, you know, Jonas and Chacone and go do Bernal, Almeida, you saw Pitcock, they all thought they could win until 3, 400 meters to go.
- [23:35]
A
Yeah, I mean, yeah, you do. You have to go for it, especially a team like that. You came for this stage, you have to do it. You have to go all in. So let's take a quick break and then we'll predict tomorrow's stage, which is kind of a difficult stage to ride and predict are. Johan, we are back. We're predicting tomorrow. Stage three, we're actually getting closer to Torino where we started. We're moving in the wrong direction away from Spain. It's 134 kilometers. So short. Two categorized climbs. One of those is in the middle. Cat 2, 6K, long 6.5% average. So not easy, right? Like right before a descent into the intermediate sprint. That will be interesting. And then a Cat 4 finish. It's listed at 2.5 K long at 3% average. But the. The real meat of that is the final k is about 5% average. So we're stuck between. Probably won't be breakaway, especially at that distance. Probably will be some sort of sprint because it's not hard enough to get rid of the sprinters. I'll list the favorites. Mads Pedersen at minus 155. So that means you have to bet $155 to win. A hundred dollars of profit if he Wins. Jasper Phillipson, plus 500. Ethan Vernon, plus 1400. You said his name yesterday, and I forgot already. Plus 1800. Actually, he could win. Ben Turner, plus 2500. Philippe Ogana, plus 2500. Brian Kakar, plus 3300. Tom Pitcock, plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call them out if we need to. And if you have questions about how to actually bet, we have a partner. Next Bets, go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes. You'll see where you can bet wherever you live and the best signup bonuses for each book. Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? Breakaway or peloton? And who do you think is going to win?
- [25:18]
B
No, I think it's Peloton. 134km short stage, early in the race. Still lots of riders who are, you know, lots of teams who want to go for it. Everybody's still full of energy. I already know who you're gonna pick, so I'm gonna pick someone else. I. I think, you know, I think your guy's gonna win, but since I can't pick him, I'm gonna pick Jasper Phillipson. I think Jasper's in good shape. He can. He will be there, I think, in the final. And then, you know, if. If the strong, uphill sprinters start too early, Philipson could potentially win that. I mean, he's done it already in the past. That kind of finishes is my pick to win the stage tomorrow.
- [26:13]
A
Well, I'm gonna pick Mads Pedersen even at minus 155. But I just think, Matt, if Mads Pedersen came to the race to win stages like this, we know he's on good form because we've seen him destroying races very recently. I think he wins it, especially since we saw similar. It was that very similar finish, actually, at this Giro where he beat Del Toro in Wout. Ben Art.
- [26:34]
B
Yes.
- [26:35]
A
If I remember, right. Yeah. So I think he's got it, but at first I thought, I don't know. Why is Phillipson even second? I don't think this guy's a chance, but, you know, this is a guy who. He won't. Milano, San Remo. He finished second twice at Per Roubaix. Like, you have to be pretty versatile rider to do that. It is. He will be there. He will not get dropped before the finish, and it probably is not crazy to think he wins. So I like that pick, but I'm going to go with Petterson.
- [27:03]
B
Okay. Yeah. I mean, Patrick is the favorite. There's no. There's no doubt. Doubt about it.
- [27:08]
A
And there's a special complication or special circumstance at the fault of these intermediate sprints. So there's bonus seconds, I think. 3, 2, 1 available in addition to points. The points only go to five spots. So, like, if you're in the intermediate sprints. Yeah, in the intermediate sprint. So if a five rider breakaways up the road, the peloton doesn't even.
- [27:29]
B
There's no point worry about that.
- [27:31]
A
Yeah, but Pedersen, like, has to start making up ground here with the. With the intermediate sprint points because he didn't win any today, I think. And he's 50 points behind his main rival, Jasper Phillips. And one thing to keep an eye on. Ethan Vernon scored 10 points at the intermediate sprint point today. So he's now at 40 points, 10 points behind Jasper Phillips. And, like, that would just be someone I would keep an eye on, like a dark horse for the points classification, Ethan Vernon. But Matt's Betterson could come in and just win this tomorrow. And now he's. Then he's. I guess he wouldn't be even because Phillipson probably finishes somewhere in the top 10. You would have to imagine. So I guess he won't be leading tomorrow. But I'm curious to see how this points shakes out because Vernon. Vernon was impressive for him to get those points today. And mathematically, it's just a more difficult race to manage in the Tour because you can't just get like, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th in the intermediate sprints and still get points. Yeah. Well, Johan, anything else before we take off?
- [28:37]
B
No, that's it for me.
- [28:40]
A
All right, thank you. And we will be back tomorrow to break down this uphill sprint and preview stage four.
- [28:45]
B
Okay, Spencer, thanks. Speak soon. Bye.