Can Pogačar Crack the Cobbled Code? | Paris-Roubaix Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE+ Podcast Summary

Episode: Can Pogačar Crack the Cobbled Code? | Paris-Roubaix Preview
Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Spencer Martin
Guests: Johan Bruyneel

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Overview

This episode of THEMOVE+ dives deep into the world of professional cycling with a special focus on the upcoming Paris-Roubaix and reflections on recent races. Host Spencer Martin and guest Johan Bruyneel analyze current form, team tactics, rider psychology, and the elusive nature of victory in cycling's most iconic cobbled classic. They break down whether Tadej Pogačar can add Paris-Roubaix to his palmarès, the continued dominance of Mathieu van der Poel, and the prospects for the chasing pack. The episode also features an in-depth look at the Tour of the Basque Country (Itzulia), standout young talents, and a quick review of the Scheldeprijs sprint classic.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tour of the Basque Country (Itzulia)

[00:49–19:35]

• Paul Seixas’s Dominance:

  • 19-year-old Paul Seixas is taking the cycling world by storm, having won three stages and leading the GC by two and a half minutes.
  • "I have never seen a 19-year-old do this. This is unbelievable." – Spencer Martin [01:24]
  • Seixas’s confidence and composure are more reminiscent of a seasoned veteran than a teenager.
  • His time trial and climbing abilities are at the elite level, making him a potential Grand Tour contender.

• Race Tactics Gone Wrong:

  • Critique of Florian Lipowitz’s tactics in the queen stage—collaborating with Seixas despite being unlikely to out-sprint or drop him.
  • "This guy needs to learn how to win races. It's not easy for him because he's not fast in the sprint." – Johan Bruyneel [05:57]

• Physical Analysis:

  • Seixas’s climbing wattage (estimated 6.7–6.9 W/kg over 25 minutes) is directly compared to the output of Tour winners.
  • Discussion over how a tall rider like Seixas (approx. 64–65kg, tall frame) could join the ranks of the tallest Tour winners, such as Bradley Wiggins, if his progression continues. [10:53–11:29]

• Comparisons to Vingegaard and Pogacar:

  • "At this moment I see him... up there with Vingegaard. This Seixas is the Vingegaard level." – Johan Bruyneel [13:37]

• Young Stars & Cross-Sport Talent:

  • Noted that several leading GC contenders (Lipowitz, Roglic, Romo) came to cycling from other sports, highlighting the increasingly diverse backgrounds of cycling’s elite. [14:15]

• Three-Week Grand Tour Uncertainties:

  • "How is he gonna perform during three weeks? Still something we need to see, something he will need to discover." – Johan Bruyneel [15:43]

2. Sprint Classic: Scheldeprijs

[19:35–22:43]

• Tim Merlier’s Third Straight Victory:

  • Merlier is praised as “the purest sprinter in the world,” winning the Scheldeprijs in a dominant display, showing impeccable timing, positioning, and speed.
  • "He just never gets his timing wrong. It's crazy…when he goes, it's game over." – Johan Bruyneel [20:41]
  • Consistent with a strong lineage of legendary sprinters who've won this race.

• Grand Tour & Paris-Roubaix Prospects:

  • Discussion of Merlier’s underappreciated record and his addition to the Paris-Roubaix start list, with the caveat that Roubaix typically doesn’t end in a bunch sprint.

3. Paris-Roubaix Preview

[23:24–39:16]

• Race Characteristics and Favorites:

  • Emphasis on Roubaix’s unique demands: power, size, bike handling, and sheer resilience over the cobbles.
  • Betting odds reflect two clear favorites: Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar (both +175), followed by a top tier of classics specialists—Pedersen, Van Aert, Philipsen, Ganna, Vermeersch.

• The Core Debate: Can Pogacar Win Roubaix?

  • Johan picks van der Poel for a record-tying fourth win, calling him “Mr. Paris Roubaix.”
  • "I think Van der Poel will make it four in a row." – Johan Bruyneel [01:17 & 26:55]
  • Bruyneel asserts Roubaix is still a race where sheer absolute power is more decisive than w/kg, tilting things toward van der Poel.

• Tactical Factors:

  • Headwind is forecasted, which favors conservative, wheel-sitting tactics and makes it harder for solo attacks to stick. [28:45]
  • Dangers of mechanicals, crashes, and flats always present—Roubaix’s ‘lottery with legs’ aspect.

• How Does Pogacar Win?

  • Pogacar’s path to victory likely involves a small group or solo move capitalizing on chaos.
  • Both experts agree dropping the heavy classics specialists won't be easy.
  • "If Pogacar wins here, that’s all five contiguous monuments… that would be impressive." – Spencer Martin [31:27]

• ‘The Chasers’ and Dark Horses:

  • Outside favorites include Pedersen, Van Aert, and Filippo Ganna (who is skipping Flanders to be top shape here, a historic rarity)—but soft-pedaling the chance of a real wild card. [31:53; 33:52]
  • "You can say Philipson, you can say Jasper Stuyven, Florian Vermeersch... but a lot would need to happen for an underdog to win." – Johan Bruyneel [33:04]

• Roubaix vs. the Other Monuments:

  • Uniquely punishing, often defies expectations; modern GC men rarely contend but Pogačar’s performance last year (2nd place, first attempt) changes the equation.
  • "Listen, Paris-Roubaix is a different animal … you have to see it in real life to believe the state of those sectors." – Johan Bruyneel [37:51]

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On young star Paul Seixas:
  "I've never seen a 19-year-old do this. This is unbelievable."
  — Spencer Martin [01:24]

• On tactics gone awry:
  "This guy [Lipowitz] needs to learn how to win races … when you're away with one guy, you know if you can drop him or not."
  — Johan Bruyneel [05:57]

• On winners’ characteristics in Roubaix:
  "It's more the absolute power that primes compared to the power to weight."
  — Johan Bruyneel on the Van der Poel vs. Pogacar dynamic [26:53]

• Roubaix’s unpredictability:
  "There's always something to be said at Roubaix—just go to the finish and see if you can win the sprint. Weird stuff happens on that velodrome."
  — Spencer Martin [30:27]

• On what it takes to win Roubaix:
  "Paris-Roubaix is a different animal… you have to see it in real life to believe the state of those sectors. It's crazy."
  — Johan Bruyneel [37:51]

• On Pogacar’s progress:
  "He can win, though...if we take into account that Pogacar this year is better than last year's Pogacar, he has the experience, his team fully believes in him… He can definitely win it."
  — Johan Bruyneel [36:56]

• On the magnitude of the classics:
  "You don’t really appreciate that until you’re sitting through the entire thing, start to finish… some of these monuments are significantly longer."
  — Spencer Martin [39:31]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tour of the Basque Country Analysis: 00:49–19:35
• Scheldeprijs and Sprinting Discussion: 19:35–22:43
• Paris-Roubaix Preview & Odds: 23:24–31:47
• Classic Tactics, Weather & Race Dynamics: 28:45–36:56
• History, Wild Cards, and the Uniqueness of Roubaix: 33:52–37:51

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Tone and Language

The podcast is engaging, insider-focused, and animated by deep tactical understanding and mutual banter between the hosts. Both acknowledge the uncertainty and drama inherent in cycling classics, mixing data, history, and personal anecdotes to paint a vivid picture for listeners at all levels of familiarity with the sport.

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In summary:
This episode provides a nuanced, point-by-point breakdown of the state of the men’s peloton heading into Paris-Roubaix, framed by Pogačar’s audacious ambitions, Van der Poel’s dominance, and all the factors—luck, weather, teamwork, and sheer brutality—that make the Hell of the North so special. Whether you’re a casual fan or a cycling lifer, it’s a discussion full of insight, opinion, and reverence for the suffering and spectacle of the sport.

Transcript

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[Johan Berniele]

Since everybody's going to say Pugachar, I'm going to say Mathieu Van der Poel. He's Mr. Paris Roubaix. I think he's the most skilled rider on cobbles by far. And especially Paris is the one race that against Van der Poel versus Pugachar. It's more the absolute power that primes compared to the power to weight.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniele]

So I think Van der Poel will make it four in a row.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniele. We are going through the past week in cycling action mainly Tour of the Bass country with Paul Seychelles winning three stages, taking the GC lead into the final stage tomorrow. Tim earlier winning his third straight skilled price and then previewing Sundays, Perry Roubaix going through, who's going to win it, how it's going to play out, everything about that race. Johan, before we get into Roubaix, let's take it. Let's take a quick moment to reflect on some things that have been happening this week. Let's start. We'll start with Bass country, then we'll go to skeletal price. So just what, what's going on at Scale or at Bass Country? Paul say shots. Looks unbelievable. I have never seen, I take back every bad thing I've ever said about the guy. I've never seen a 19 year old do this. This is unbelievable. He's winning the GC by two and a half minutes having won three stages dominating the opening time trial. He wins today again over Flying Lipowitz. Before we get into Seychelles's dominance, you had a, you had a comment like today was a what it was a lesson in how not to win a bike race. Do you want to go through what you meant by that?

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah. I mean, today was obviously, it was the Queen stage, the hardest stage.

[Spencer Martin]

It was very hard. It was typical.

[Johan Berniele]

I mean, all the stages have been hard in the Basque country, all of them. But today was, I mean, might not have changed anything, right. But we saw the race breaking up quite early. Then there was a group of, I mean, a group of 10, 15 riders on the, on the hardest climb of the day, the second last climb, which everybody knows, you know, they've been doing this climb a lot of times in the Basque Country. And Seychelles basically starts as soon as he's out of teammates, he starts to set the tempo. And it's. There's four riders initially, I think it's. It's Seychas, Lipovitz, Roglic and Utterbrooks. Then, I mean, first Roglic tries to make a move, doesn't go anywhere. Then Lipovic goes, the other two are dropped. And then Seychelles basically pulls all the way to the top with Roglic behind. Then from the back, Javier Romo came out out of nowhere. Impressive. Catches up, passes Roglic, catches up with the two guys in front. The moment he catches up, he touches the wheel of Lipovic, crashes and never makes it back. But at that moment, it was Lipovic and Cesas in front and Roglic and Romo behind. And, you know, I, I don't know if it's Lipovic himself or is. If, if it's directions from the car that would even be worse. I'm assuming it's Lipw himself. He just starts working with, say SAS after the downhill when he has. He knows that first of all, he's not going to take two minutes on, on say sas at that time.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Riding away from him on the flat, giving.

[Johan Berniele]

You should already know that. Okay, if I can stay with him, this is going to be great. And let's try to win a stage here. Let's try to win a bike race, right? So you have your teammate behind, working together with Romo. And then all of a sudden I see Lipovitz collaborating with Seychelles. I said, how? How is this possible? Then the car came for a moment, then he stopped working, but then he started working again. And then to finish it off, he starts to sprint with like 700 meters to go, thinking on a false flat, he's going to drop. Paul, say sas. I mean, you know, I've said this many times, Spencer, you know, and everybody who has raced at whatever level knows that when you're away with one guy and you guys take turns, they know who's the strongest rider and you know if you're going to be. Be able to drop him or not. So it's clear that Lipovic was not going to get, you know, so, I mean, I don't know, man. I mean, I, you know, I said, yeah. How to not win a bike race. I mean, listen, there's a reason that Florian Lipovic has not won many bike races. He's a very, very good GC rider. He's very good up there in all the big races, he's top three, top five. But he only won, I think, a stage in. Was it Tour of Slovenia or. No, it's the Cebu Tour and the GC, I think. Right.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, and. Okay, no, you're right. GC and the Cebu Tour. GC at the Czech Tour. The only non GC he's ever won is stage two of the Check Tour 2023.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah. So, you know, I mean, this guy needs to learn how to win races. It's not easy for him because he's not fast in the sprint. And it was, I mean, he was still not going to win against, against Jose Shas, unless. Unless he was collaborating full gas and they made a deal. But that's not being, that's not done anymore. Especially not with a young rider like Seychelles. That's not going to happen. Or it must be a deal in the car between the two cars of Red Bull and, And Decathlon. But that's also not happening. So. Yeah, I don't know, man. I was, I was surprised to see these tactics. It was a guarantee not to win the race for sure.

[Spencer Martin]

What's he being told? Like what's coming from the car when this is happening?

[Johan Berniele]

I mean, you know, you would think. I think it's Pachi Villa in the car. You know, he's Basque, he's experienced, he's seen many things. I don't know. I don't know. It was first he was riding, then he was told to stop when the car came up. And then he started writing again. I don't know, man.

[Spencer Martin]

Are they just trying to secure second place because. And now he's over a minute ahead of Juan is a Giri who was in the group behind.

[Johan Berniele]

Well, they, they had second place already. I mean, they were already in second and third before, before the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

I guess now they have a buffer in case

[Johan Berniele]

us would have pulled anyway.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, I know that. Yeah, yeah. That's the only thing that. And that's the beauty of having a teammate in the chase group, you don't have to worry about. Yeah, exactly, exactly.

[Johan Berniele]

So, you know, I mean, first they. They do everything they can to isolate Sayas. I don't know if that's actually better or worse for the guys who are on the limit, because once the strong guy we see. We always see this with Pogacha also. I mean, with Pogacha is dominant. They all say, okay, we need to isolate.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah.

[Johan Berniele]

And what happens when he isolates? He attacks and everybody's, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that's a very. It's a very good point that. Yeah, isolate them. It's like, I.

[Johan Berniele]

All right, isolate him so he doesn't attack.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes. Because now you've given him no option and you've made the race hard by dropping his teammates, which then helps him attack you. What are you doing? I actually remember Pachavilla. There was a movie star documentary and they were like, hey, we've got to make the race hard before the final climb. And Pache Villa is like, no, because that does not help us. We. That is hurting us more than it's hurting anybody else. It's like. That's actually a pretty good point. I thought it was a bit. A bit strange. I mean, Lipowitz looks very good. Paul say shots. Looks very good.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Paul Sejas is going to win this race. I think he's two and a half minutes up on Lipowitz. Three and a half on.

[Johan Berniele]

What's really surprising Spencer to me is, you know, we've all seen he looks incredibly strong in the time trial. That was clear already. That was like, okay, basically race over. Right? I mean, if you're able to do that performance on that short climb and then on top of that winning in the way he won stage one or stage two, it was clear that nobody was able to follow him uphill. But today they were able to follow him. Lipovitz followed him. Right. He was able to stay with him. We don't know if went full gas or not, but that, that's irrelevant. He stayed with him. But also, what's really, really remarkable is, man, his, his confidence in his interviews. It's something for a 19 year old. I mean, he sounds like a seasoned professional in his interviews also. And he is so confident. You would say, you would think, yeah, you know, a 19 year old, you know, it all comes to him. It, you know, it's a bit overwhelming. It's not overwhelming for him. That's where he expects to be. I could hear also in. In an interview three Days ago, you know, that they had gone to the. To preview some stages. They knew where they would. They knew that stage one, they wanted to attack. So, I mean, yeah, they came into this race really, really believing and thinking that he would win. And they were right.

[Spencer Martin]

You know what blows my mind about him? He's so good in the time trial at 19, like, that's usually what comes along later. Like to come out and do that time trial. Super impressive. So stage one, stage two, the first road stage, he attacks and rides away. 25 minute climb, essentially. And I don't know if you watch this Johan, he didn't get out of the saddle. He just rode. Rode away from everybody. So 25 minutes. I estimated his power at around 440 watts. So like 6.8, 6.9 watts per kilo.

[Johan Berniele]

6.7 watts per kilo.

[Spencer Martin]

That's like, I. What I don't like about those numbers is they assume everyone weighs 60. That when you see those numbers on Twitter, it's normalizing everyone's weight. But they do it so low that the watts per kilo are actually a little bit lower than they are if you're more than 60 kilos, which Sesha says.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah, yeah, yeah. And how heavy is he? 65, 66?

[Spencer Martin]

60. He's listed at 64, so we could assume 64. 65, probably. Yeah.

[Johan Berniele]

He's tall. He's tall.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he is tall.

[Johan Berniele]

Tall.

[Spencer Martin]

He would be like one of the. I think he'd be the tallest tour winner since maybe.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah, well, he's not won the tour yet.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, I'm penciling him for the tour. I actually put a little bet on him to win the tour after stage two.

[Johan Berniele]

Who would be the tallest.

[Spencer Martin]

The tallest tour winner this year?

[Johan Berniele]

No, no. Who would be the. The tallest tour winner ever?

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, ever. I mean, Wiggins has got to be up there. That guy in real life is so tall.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah, yeah, I would think, exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. He might be the top.

[Johan Berniele]

He's taller. He's taller than Induran. He's taller than Induran.

[Spencer Martin]

He's taller than George, who's very tall.

[Johan Berniele]

Froome is pretty tall too, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, probably. I mean, Paul says Wiggins. Wiggins is shocking.

[Johan Berniele]

Wiggins is tall. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And Wiggins looks like he could play in the NBA right now. So pulsation. 6.8 watts per kilo. In the comments, people are like, oh, man, that stinks. Not even more than seven, to put this in perspective. Seven. Like, first of all, this is a 25 minute climb. Like, they're like, well, at Fonardes she was better. It's like, well that's a 16 minute climb and he did 7.2 watts per kilo. That's quite a bit longer. Like over 20 minute climbs. You actually don't see that many of them in pro cycling because these guys go so fast. Like I'm looking at Pagachar Otacom, last year at the Tour to Tour winning performance that was 6.8 watts per kilo. So this is not some like dud performance. And you got to remember Paul Seas is riding as hard as he needs to to win this race. He's not riding to impress us with his power output. Like he did what he needed to get a lead. Yeah, he basically sealed the win on stage two today.

[Johan Berniele]

I think that by the way, he, he's not, he's not just good uphill. You see how he goes downhill.

[Spencer Martin]

He was flying downhill.

[Johan Berniele]

It's unbelievable. He's unbelievably good and unbelievably good descender. So he has it. I mean he can climb, he can downhill, he can time trial. He's not slow. He's pretty fast. Also, man, the guy has it all. Yeah. I think, I mean in my opinion, Spencer, I don't know, maybe we're looking ahead a bit far. But at this moment I see him assuming he does the Tour. But he's gonna do the Tour. There's no, there's no other way. I think unless something unexpected happens. I see him up there with Vingegaard. This, this takes us. Is a. Is the finger guard level? I think.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And yes, I agree physically, absolutely. I, I think he is. He's already slotted into that second level of like. Well, everyone's below Pagachar and then he's right there with Vindegaard. We should say Jonas Vinegar is very good at racing, especially for three weeks. I mean this is, I'm looking at Jonas.

[Johan Berniele]

Three weeks is different. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

He's not finished lower than second in a grand tour since 2020. So Jonas got that figured out and like. But man, Paul, as you say, with this descending, like he's just such a complete writer. I, I've never seen anything like this. He's a far more complete writer than for Gacha was at 19.

[Johan Berniele]

You know, there's another, another thing today noteworthy. Spencer, my, my friend commentator at Eurosport, Antonio Alix made me aware of something very unique. So we, at some, at some point we had four riders in front. So we had Cesas Lipovic, Roglic and Romo. So Cesas obviously is a phenomenon, right. He's a super talented rider. Other three riders come from different sports. Other sports. Lipovitz comes from biathlon, Rogli was a ski jumper and Romo was a triathlete until Covid.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniele]

So, you know, and, and, and, and Roglic and Romo and, and Lipowitz actually came relatively late to professional cycling. You know, we're all, there's all this hype about, you know, the 17, the 18, the 19 year olds, all these guys came to, to cycling much later. So, you know, it shows that if you're a good athlete, there is a possibility.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, Romo, very good to call that out. That guy. That was a super impressive ride. Yeah. Came late on this young rider thing. We didn't mention it in the Perry Rube show. Do you know who the youngest rider in the top 10 was at Roubaix. Sorry, not at Flanders. It's Remco Evole. And you know, the second youngest writer was Tadupagachar, which is kind of a funny thing that these young writers.

[Johan Berniele]

It's monuments different. It's a different animal. It's a different animal monument. It's, you know, 270k. It's different. Yeah, that's. And the question mark, of course, around Paul Seychelles. Right. How is he gonna perform during three weeks still, you know, something that we need to see, something that he will need to discover. You know, if he goes really good for 10 days and then falls apart, you know, it could be a normal thing to be expected. But maybe it doesn't, maybe it doesn't happen. Maybe he just goes all the three weeks, the whole three weeks. We'll see.

[Spencer Martin]

I, I would say it's not likely because I was trying to explain this to someone who was a young writer themselves at one point. His experience is nothing like our experience because to him it's. And I mean, frankly, when he's in the group, it's probably easy, right? Because he's so much better than everybody else. He's not on the limit when normal people would be on the limit. So I, I don't know if he's going to fall apart, you know, like Egan Bernal, not as talented, but kind of a similar situation where like, he's too young to be at the Tour and then you're just so much better than the average rider. You're not pressed to the same point as the average rider is. So it's easy. That's why the best writers win Grand Tours. But just a couple other notes from this Isaac del Toro crashes out. Who knows? Maybe he would have won. Get. I'm getting some heat on Instagram about Isaac del Toro not winning this. But who he could have won, we don't know, but he crashed out with a torn. It was like a torn hip flexor. What was this injury? Was not.

[Johan Berniele]

Did not say somewhere a torn muscle. Yeah, it sounded. I mean, when you read the report, it doesn't look good. I think he's going to be fine for the Tour, but definitely, you know, it's definitely a bummer for. For him and for the team. For the Basque Country. Listen, he was not gonna challenge Bogachar at all. Counter performance in the time trial and then not there in stage one. Even got dropped from the second group at the end. So he was not at the top of his game. I think, you know, same with Juana.

[Spencer Martin]

You.

[Johan Berniele]

So who, you know, did a really bad time trial, did. Then did a few bad stages and had to abandon with stomach problems. I think so, yeah. I mean, they have to just go home and rest and recover and prepare for the next goal. These two guys.

[Spencer Martin]

Someone on the commentary pointed out del Toro, like, just del Toro. And I used those two examples very like, started the season super hot and then almost looked to be paying for it. But what's crazy is I USO beat Paul Sechas at Algarve and then flash forward to Bass Country. They don't even look like they're in the same conversation. Like, Seychas is significantly better than he did earlier this year, which is. That's. That's a scary progression.

[Johan Berniele]

And he looked really good in Strada Bianche. And let's not forget that I USO had a pretty severe crash in Paris. Nice. While he was in the lead, you know, so we don't know what the consequences are. But at the same time, then I would think, okay, if he starts in Pais Vasco or it's Itulia, we need to say it's Julia. You know, we keep calling it the Tour of the Basque country, but if he starts, I think it's because he thought that he. He would be performance, you know, performance. So, yeah, who knows?

[Spencer Martin]

And yeah, who knows? Yeah, he did crash hard at bearing east that it looked. Is Zulia mean Tour or Basque Country?

[Johan Berniele]

I don't know. I don't know what it means. Actually, it's Julia.

[Spencer Martin]

We'll just call it Idzulia. We will defer to the Basques.

[Johan Berniele]

I just keep calling it Vuelta Pais Vasco.

[Spencer Martin]

I remember some TV network asked me what should we list this as in the what's on TV right now. And it's like, I don't know what to tell you. It changes every year. So before we get to rebase Scala, Price was on Wednesday midweek. Cobbled classic kind of always ends in a sprint.

[Johan Berniele]

There's a few cobbles, but it's, it's, it's pretty flat. So this, it's the Sprint World Championships, basically.

[Spencer Martin]

And it's not, that's not just, that gets thrown around a lot. This is truly, if you look at the past winners, it is almost always the top sprinter winning. Tim earlier wins it for the third year in a row, beats Pavel Bitner. A pretty impressive result by Bitner. But like, if you look at the past winners of this, it's mere. Philipson. Kristoff Philipson Caleb Ewan Jakobson. Jakobson Kittle. Kittle. Kittle. Kristof Kittle. Kittle. Kittle Cavendish. So those are, those are the world's best sprinters in the year that they've won. This is only Tim Miller's second race of the year. He's had knee problems. I, I, he won this, Johan. And I could just hear you in my head being like, tim, Tim earlier is the best sprinter in the world.

[Johan Berniele]

So this is the purest sprinter in the world. He's, you know, he just never gets his timing wrong. It's crazy. I mean, he has this, this jump. I mean, when the other guy started sprinting, the sprint was over already. Yeah, he just came from the back. He's so good at surfing wheels. There was nobody there for him. He was just finding his way. At some point it looked like he was boxed in for some reason. He always finds an opening and then he's able to judge this distance and just when he goes, it's, it's, it's, it's game over. It's crazy. I mean there was not even, I mean it was, it was me. Nobody was second. And then, and then the third guy, the third guy was second, but there was no, there was nobody in second place because he was so far ahead.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And he's just kind of had some weird luck in Grand Tours and like even weird luck getting to Grand Tours. Like there was years where he wasn't even really racing a lot of them. I'm curious of. He won two stages of the Tour last year. So if this guy shows up the Tour, watch out. He could win a lot of stages flying.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah. And, and, and now at the last moment, they also added him to Parube in, in I mean, that's not, I don't think that's a race specifically for him. But, you know, I mean, obviously par is not going to be a bunch print, so. But anyway, he does par. He was surprised, surprised by his win. He said, you know, I know that physically I'm not 100%. I was just, you know, saw, saw the, the finish. I just, I said, okay, this is my distance. I'm going. He, he didn't understand how he won. He was extremely surprised.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, I know, I know how he won because he was, he went really fast. Way faster than anybody else in that sprint. I mean, he's just very good at positioning. Very good. If you want to learn how to sprint, just watch Tim earlier. You're right. He's the best pure sprinter. The most pure sprinter in the sport. Let's take a quick ad break and then we'll talk about Paris Roubaix. Talk about how Tim earlier is going to do there in one minute.

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[Spencer Martin]

Okay, Johan, we're back. Paris Roubaix. This Sunday we will have a show with hopefully Lance Armstrong and George H. Cappy. I've not confirmed with both of them, but I trust they'll be here. It is a long race. 260.

[Johan Berniele]

George will be on the ground.

[Spencer Martin]

Oh, yeah. Yeah. George is on the ground.

[Johan Berniele]

George is there with his team. His team is invited. Modern adventure. So that's big for them. And I guess we'll just have to wait until George arrives at his hotel. But I think we, we need to. I think we need to accommodate the schedule for George to be on. I mean, he's Mr. Par on our team.

[Spencer Martin]

He is.

[Johan Berniele]

Nobody can talk better about Parido better than him.

[Spencer Martin]

You know, I think we did this last year where he had to go to Paris and we waited for him and then he, he like hadn't eaten dinner and he was so hungry. Yeah, but 260k long race. You probably know Perry Roubaix if you're listening to this episode, but if you don't not. Here's the Cliff Notes. Not too hilly. Mini cobbles, very hard. Bigger writer is good here. Power, power is key. Climbs are not as important, but you also have to be a great bike handler and riding over the cobbles is incredibly unique. The favorites. This is just from. I just pulled this from DraftKings just now. Here's the favorites in the betting market. Tadipa God chart. Plus 175. So if you bet $175, you would win a profit of 100. Sorry, no, that's the opposite if you bet it. If you bet $100, you would win a profit of 175. Matthew Vanderpoel's the same. Plus 175. Mads Patterson plus 700. Wild Bernard. Plus 700. Jasper Phillipson plus 1200. Phil Alipo, Ghana. Plus 1200. Florian Vermeerse plus 1600. Kristoff Laporte plus 3000. Johnny Vermeesh plus 8000. This used to be a harder race to predict, but it's, it's gotten almost it's favors. I feel like the favorites more than it used to. As an example of that, the last three winners are Matthew Vanderpoel. Matthew Vanderpoel. Matthew Vanderpoel. So you tend to get, you tend to know it's between, you know, a handful, two or three riders. A reason for this is the race is just getting harder and harder. It's like what we talked about last week at Flanders. You know, last year I went back and watched this race. Johan. The, the, the moves essentially were being set up at 170k, out by 100k to go. The top three out of the Arenberg Forest, which is a key cobbled sector in the peloton, were Matthew Vanderpoel, Tada Pagatra and Mads Pedersen, which was the final podium. I expect the same thing to happen this year, but who do you think is going to win and how is this going to play out?

[Johan Berniele]

The easy thing would say okay, Pagachar, you know, but, but I think Paris, Dubai is different. And then. And that's taken out of the equation. Bad luck. Because that can happen and it will happen. Yeah, we don't know which of the favorites will be affected by that. Just remember last year when the decisive move was going with Bogachar and van der Poel and Philipson Pedersen flatted, had a flat at this at the very same moment. But since Everybody's going to say Pugach. I'm going to say mat Vanderpoel. He's Mr. Parub. I think he's the most skilled rider on cobbles by far. And especially par is the one race that against Vanderpool versus Pugach, it's more than the absolute power that primes compared to the power to weight.

[Spencer Martin]

Yes.

[Johan Berniele]

So I think Vanderpool will make it four in a row which will be unique. This will be, he's not, it's not going to be the record holder. There's two riders who won it four times, Tom Boonen and Roger de Vlaming. That's the record. But I think Vanderpool will join them and win it four times in a row.

[Spencer Martin]

He would be the fastest to four. No one's ever won four in a row. I mean I think you say he's the best writer on the cobbles in this race. I think he's the best rider on the cobbles of all time. I mean to have four to get four Flanders, to get three Flanders wins as fast as he did and let's say he wins on Sunday to get four Rubaix wins in four years, that's absurd against very good competition.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah. Now the thing is Spencer, you know, we, what we already see is that Pugacha for Pugach to win P needs a hard race. So you know, the best for that is that it's man against man and that the race explodes early. I would say, I would say although after a hard race of 260k you never know because if it's a two man up sprint, you never know. You can't say if it's Vanderpool is going to win. Logically it should be van der Poel especially because needs to try and drop Matthew Vanderpool. But what if he doesn't and he just saves a bit and they ride together and Vanderpool is always going to ride with Pogachar, especially on the flats and then it's a two man sprint. But I still think, and also another thing, Spencer for it, I mean, and I think it's actually, you can take it both ways but for Pugachar to be, to be a hard race, it needs to be a fast race and it will be a slow race and a long race because they predict cross headwind the whole day.

[Spencer Martin]

Interesting.

[Johan Berniele]

It's going to be dry, good weather, 15 degrees dusty and cross headwind. So obviously when you're sitting on the wheel it's, it's easier when it's you know, kind of in generally headwind than, than when it's tailwind because then on the, they go a lot faster. People may think, okay, stale and it's easier. It's not. If it's tailwind you get dropped easier on the cobbles and if it's headwind, yeah, they go so much faster.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Tailwind favors the attacking rider, especially tail cross. So here, here's, here's my thoughts on this. I think you're, I think you're, I tend to think you're right. I, I, it's actually a hard assignment here for Pagacha because as you said, what power is more important than watts per kilo than like weight averaged power? How does Pagato drop Matthew Vanderpoel? That's not going to be so easy. I mean frankly. How does he drop Matt's Pedersen? How's he dropped Wild Bernard? How's he dropped Felipe Pagana? Like that's not going to be easy to drop any of these guys. I think the days of Jasper Phillipson finishing second are over because the, the increased pace has just stretched the race out. As we saw last year, it was a little too hard for Phillipson even though he made that initial selection with them. But to drop these guys is going to be so difficult for Pagachar. I tend to think if he wins, he's going to have to win by either. Remember the year it was 2023 where Vanderpoel was with Vanart and Ben Art flatted. Like that's always, that's why you work with someone at Rebate. Right. Because something could happen.

[Johan Berniele]

Listen, don't go further than last year. Spencer Pogacha crashed, was pursuing Vanderpool, but then Vanderpool had a flat while he was alone in the front.

[Spencer Martin]

So yeah, you know, I actually forgot about that until yesterday. I was like, I didn't remember Vanderpoel flattening, but remember 2016 where Matt Hayman goes to the line with Tom Boonen and wins the sprint. So there is always something to be said at Rebe to just, just go to the finish and see if you can win the sprint. It happens. Weird stuff happens on that velodrome. I'm going to pick Pagachar because I need him to win all five monuments because that's what I picked. The thing about this though is Pagoda, I, I went back and calculated if you like, let's say the last year's worth of major one day races. You know, we always say like, oh wow, the odds aren't Very good. If you had just bet, like, if you bet a million dollars on Pagachar every time, your return would be like, the best hedge fund in the world. Like, it doesn't seem that hard in retrospect. You're like, oh, someone should have done this. So it seems silly to bet against Bogacha. If he wins, he will have won five contiguous monuments. Basically, like a calendar sweep.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And I think it sets him up for. To win all five in the year and then the last seven consecutive monuments. I believe if he wins all the way to Lombardia, that would be impressive. But I, I do, I'm acknowledging, I think it could be hard to beat Vanderpoel here. This is like Vanderpoel's super bowl as well. Like, his whole season is built around this.

[Johan Berniele]

I.

[Spencer Martin]

If Vanderpoel doesn't win, who do you think could win out of the group behind or like that cluster behind?

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah, I mean, you listen, Walt Van Aert is in good shape. Pedersen is going to be, I think, better than in Flanders. You know, he was already at a good level there, but he's, he's getting better by the day. And then people Ghana, you know, people Ghana set out Flanders on purpose to be top in Paris. He showed that he was in great shape in, In Waddingham, Dwarfs of London. And I think he's somebody that they have to have in mind, you know, that you can't give people Ghana like on one of those sneaky, you know, trying to get away attacks once. Once he gets 10, 15 meters, go get. Go find. Go get him, you know. Yeah, especially I think Peterson and Moat, Van Art, those five, you know, you can say Philipson, you can say Jasper Stiven was up there. Florian Vermeers, there's other riders, but, you know, a lot would need to happen with one of those five riders for an underdog to win.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I would say that a lot. A lot would need to happen. The thing about Roubaix, too, is it's space constraint. So let's say we mentioned seven top favorites. There's this, like, not physically that much more space for someone else to be there because you can't be sitting 20 wheels back going into these cobble sectors. You're going to get dropped. So not many people are going to make that front group. I do think if Pagatra and Vanderpoel look at each other, you could have Pedersen, Van Art, Ghana. I like those guys to maybe right away, these are not. You would not say they're wild cards, but in Modern cycling they might be. The thing about Ghana is, okay, so he skipped Flanders to prepare. Kind of makes sense, right? You hear that? You're like, all right, I get it. Almost never happens. Do you know the last rider to not race to win Roubaix without racing Flanders?

[Johan Berniele]

Well, was it Matthew Heyman?

[Spencer Martin]

Matthew Heyman. Only because he had a broken wrist.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. So I don't know. I, I mean, you should never do things because history tells you to do things. Like, you should use data and come to your own conclusion. But that does make me a little. Just makes me think twice about if

[Johan Berniele]

that was a good decision. Also, Spencer with Buddy do bit compared to all the other races we've seen. If it's, you know, G are attacking, getting away in, in Paridou, it is easier to organize a group behind, behind the guy who's escaped than in any other race we've seen. Especially a lot easier than in Flanders because it's flat in between the, the sectors and you know, let's say envision a scenario where, I mean, the. On the hardest part, for the hardest sector is, is the Armberg Forest, right? So let's say P gets away there, V Pool in Ghana and Peterson and Vanart get together. They're catching him. He's not, he's not staying away.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, that's a good point. I mean, I, I forgotten too that Pagatra attacked with like 70k to go last year and then started to whittle it down. But you bring up a good point of. I mean, so I'm just going back to 20. 20, 2024. Vanderpoel attacked from 60k out and won by three minutes.

[Johan Berniele]

When he was world champion. Right?

[Spencer Martin]

When he was world champion. Why, why was the chase. What happened there? Was he just that much faster on the cobbles?

[Johan Berniele]

Did you see that attack? I mean, that attack was like. Was it like a different race? It was crazy. When he attacked, I remember Johnny Vermeers was pulling and he was like, surprised. All of a sudden he saw a white thing pass in the rainbow stripes and it was. He was like going double speed. But again, you know, I mean, then check behind. You always need to see who is there. Like if, you know, if we're talking about these five riders here, if it's Pugachar by himself against Vanderpool, Ghana, Peterson and Van Aert, you know, he's not going to stay away. The thing is that normally when Pogacha attacks, you know, it's a race of attrition. Everybody's, you know, slowly Slowly getting drained and then Pogacho goes and there's, there's not much left to chase behind. Right. No matter how you want to collaborate, they're all dead already.

[Spencer Martin]

When he goes, yeah, yeah, you, you are right though. This is the race that it would happen. And now that I'm looking at it, Vanderpoel's first two solo wins. He's won it solo three times, which is kind of unusual. His first two solo wins, Philipson was an anchor in the chase group. So who in their right mind is going to chase with Phillips and sitting there like nobody because you're going to lose that sprint. So yeah, you are right that it could come back together. I tend to think this is going to be strung out like from the moment most people turn on the tv, the race is essentially going to be almost over, like at Flanders. But I, I do think this is going to be the, I think this is the trickiest one for him to win. I think if he wins this, it's.

[Johan Berniele]

He can win though. He can win. Last year we. Listen, Spencer, last year we said, ah, you know what? No way. It's first time, man, he was second. And he, without the crash, he would have sprinted for the victory. So, you know, if we, if we take into account that pugach of this year is better than last year's pugach, he has the experience, his team fully believes in him. I mean, he's, I mean the fact that he's equal favorite with Vanderpool says says it all. You know, he can win it. You know, he can definitely win it.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, he left his team camp to go preview this in December. So yeah, he's definitely taking it seriously.

[Johan Berniele]

There's an ex winner, a Multiple winner of Parub 3 Tang winner Yam who sent me a message today and he's convinced Bogacha is going to win.

[Spencer Martin]

There you go. And yeah, I'm so, I'm sure the Belgian media is talking about this. If RCO was starting, how much would he win by a couple minutes?

[Johan Berniele]

Probably the fact that he didn't even consider going says it all. That's a different, that's. Listen, Parido best is a different animal, Spencer. It's, it's, it's completely different to any other. I mean, we tended to think that Flanders and Brube were different. You know, these guys have gotten so good now and they're so skilled on their bikes that Flanders is becoming a race of the strongest guys are there no matter how much experience you have. But Party Dubai is different. It's, it's, it's. It's. I mean, you have to see it in real life to believe the state of those sectors. And how is it possible that they can go over there with these road race bikes? It's crazy.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, before Pagacha last year, we didn't even think it was possible for a modern GC rider to just roll up and do well. So, yeah, yeah, it. It is different. I would second that. It's not the same. Well, Johan, anything else before we take off?

[Johan Berniele]

No, I think that's it. I'm excited to watch it on Sunday. I. I mean, I think on Eurosport, they. They show it from start to finish.

[Spencer Martin]

No, I think definitely show up from start to finish. Yeah, it's on Peacock in the US which, yeah, we'll have it start to finish as well. It starts early. Like, if you're East coast, probably 4am is when it's gonna roll off. I mean, what is locally is it they start at like 10:30, 11:00am, right?

[Johan Berniele]

10:30, I think.

[Spencer Martin]

10:30.

[Johan Berniele]

Yeah, 10:30. It means 260k. So it's gonna be five and a half hours at least. Um, so, yeah, I think maybe 11. I don't know, maybe it could be 11 finished by five.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. One thing you don't realize when you're not in Europe and then you go to Europe is it gives you a sense of scale of these races. Cause you're like 10:30am to dinner time is how long the race is happening. You're like, wow, this is a really. You know, some of these tour stages could start at 1:30 and they're over by 4:30, you know, 5pm but these monuments are significantly longer. You don't really appreciate that until you're sitting through the entire thing, start to finish.

[Johan Berniele]

Okay, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, Talk to you later, Johan.

[Johan Berniele]

Talk to you soon. See you on Sunday. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Bye.

[Johan Berniele]

Bye.

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