THEMOVE+ Podcast Summary

Episode: Can Pogačar Crack the Cobbled Code? | Paris-Roubaix Preview
Date: April 10, 2026
Host: Spencer Martin
Guests: Johan Bruyneel

Overview

This episode of THEMOVE+ dives deep into the world of professional cycling with a special focus on the upcoming Paris-Roubaix and reflections on recent races. Host Spencer Martin and guest Johan Bruyneel analyze current form, team tactics, rider psychology, and the elusive nature of victory in cycling's most iconic cobbled classic. They break down whether Tadej Pogačar can add Paris-Roubaix to his palmarès, the continued dominance of Mathieu van der Poel, and the prospects for the chasing pack. The episode also features an in-depth look at the Tour of the Basque Country (Itzulia), standout young talents, and a quick review of the Scheldeprijs sprint classic.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Tour of the Basque Country (Itzulia)

[00:49–19:35]

• Paul Seixas’s Dominance:

  • 19-year-old Paul Seixas is taking the cycling world by storm, having won three stages and leading the GC by two and a half minutes.
  • "I have never seen a 19-year-old do this. This is unbelievable." – Spencer Martin [01:24]
  • Seixas’s confidence and composure are more reminiscent of a seasoned veteran than a teenager.
  • His time trial and climbing abilities are at the elite level, making him a potential Grand Tour contender.

• Race Tactics Gone Wrong:

  • Critique of Florian Lipowitz’s tactics in the queen stage—collaborating with Seixas despite being unlikely to out-sprint or drop him.
  • "This guy needs to learn how to win races. It's not easy for him because he's not fast in the sprint." – Johan Bruyneel [05:57]

• Physical Analysis:

  • Seixas’s climbing wattage (estimated 6.7–6.9 W/kg over 25 minutes) is directly compared to the output of Tour winners.
  • Discussion over how a tall rider like Seixas (approx. 64–65kg, tall frame) could join the ranks of the tallest Tour winners, such as Bradley Wiggins, if his progression continues. [10:53–11:29]

• Comparisons to Vingegaard and Pogacar:

  • "At this moment I see him... up there with Vingegaard. This Seixas is the Vingegaard level." – Johan Bruyneel [13:37]

• Young Stars & Cross-Sport Talent:

  • Noted that several leading GC contenders (Lipowitz, Roglic, Romo) came to cycling from other sports, highlighting the increasingly diverse backgrounds of cycling’s elite. [14:15]

• Three-Week Grand Tour Uncertainties:

  • "How is he gonna perform during three weeks? Still something we need to see, something he will need to discover." – Johan Bruyneel [15:43]

2. Sprint Classic: Scheldeprijs

[19:35–22:43]

• Tim Merlier’s Third Straight Victory:

  • Merlier is praised as “the purest sprinter in the world,” winning the Scheldeprijs in a dominant display, showing impeccable timing, positioning, and speed.
  • "He just never gets his timing wrong. It's crazy…when he goes, it's game over." – Johan Bruyneel [20:41]
  • Consistent with a strong lineage of legendary sprinters who've won this race.

• Grand Tour & Paris-Roubaix Prospects:

  • Discussion of Merlier’s underappreciated record and his addition to the Paris-Roubaix start list, with the caveat that Roubaix typically doesn’t end in a bunch sprint.

3. Paris-Roubaix Preview

[23:24–39:16]

• Race Characteristics and Favorites:

  • Emphasis on Roubaix’s unique demands: power, size, bike handling, and sheer resilience over the cobbles.
  • Betting odds reflect two clear favorites: Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogačar (both +175), followed by a top tier of classics specialists—Pedersen, Van Aert, Philipsen, Ganna, Vermeersch.

• The Core Debate: Can Pogacar Win Roubaix?

  • Johan picks van der Poel for a record-tying fourth win, calling him “Mr. Paris Roubaix.”
  • "I think Van der Poel will make it four in a row." – Johan Bruyneel [01:17 & 26:55]
  • Bruyneel asserts Roubaix is still a race where sheer absolute power is more decisive than w/kg, tilting things toward van der Poel.

• Tactical Factors:

  • Headwind is forecasted, which favors conservative, wheel-sitting tactics and makes it harder for solo attacks to stick. [28:45]
  • Dangers of mechanicals, crashes, and flats always present—Roubaix’s ‘lottery with legs’ aspect.

• How Does Pogacar Win?

  • Pogacar’s path to victory likely involves a small group or solo move capitalizing on chaos.
  • Both experts agree dropping the heavy classics specialists won't be easy.
  • "If Pogacar wins here, that’s all five contiguous monuments… that would be impressive." – Spencer Martin [31:27]

• ‘The Chasers’ and Dark Horses:

  • Outside favorites include Pedersen, Van Aert, and Filippo Ganna (who is skipping Flanders to be top shape here, a historic rarity)—but soft-pedaling the chance of a real wild card. [31:53; 33:52]
  • "You can say Philipson, you can say Jasper Stuyven, Florian Vermeersch... but a lot would need to happen for an underdog to win." – Johan Bruyneel [33:04]

• Roubaix vs. the Other Monuments:

  • Uniquely punishing, often defies expectations; modern GC men rarely contend but Pogačar’s performance last year (2nd place, first attempt) changes the equation.
  • "Listen, Paris-Roubaix is a different animal … you have to see it in real life to believe the state of those sectors." – Johan Bruyneel [37:51]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On young star Paul Seixas:
  "I've never seen a 19-year-old do this. This is unbelievable."
  — Spencer Martin [01:24]

• On tactics gone awry:
  "This guy [Lipowitz] needs to learn how to win races … when you're away with one guy, you know if you can drop him or not."
  — Johan Bruyneel [05:57]

• On winners’ characteristics in Roubaix:
  "It's more the absolute power that primes compared to the power to weight."
  — Johan Bruyneel on the Van der Poel vs. Pogacar dynamic [26:53]

• Roubaix’s unpredictability:
  "There's always something to be said at Roubaix—just go to the finish and see if you can win the sprint. Weird stuff happens on that velodrome."
  — Spencer Martin [30:27]

• On what it takes to win Roubaix:
  "Paris-Roubaix is a different animal… you have to see it in real life to believe the state of those sectors. It's crazy."
  — Johan Bruyneel [37:51]

• On Pogacar’s progress:
  "He can win, though...if we take into account that Pogacar this year is better than last year's Pogacar, he has the experience, his team fully believes in him… He can definitely win it."
  — Johan Bruyneel [36:56]

• On the magnitude of the classics:
  "You don’t really appreciate that until you’re sitting through the entire thing, start to finish… some of these monuments are significantly longer."
  — Spencer Martin [39:31]

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Tour of the Basque Country Analysis: 00:49–19:35
• Scheldeprijs and Sprinting Discussion: 19:35–22:43
• Paris-Roubaix Preview & Odds: 23:24–31:47
• Classic Tactics, Weather & Race Dynamics: 28:45–36:56
• History, Wild Cards, and the Uniqueness of Roubaix: 33:52–37:51

Tone and Language

The podcast is engaging, insider-focused, and animated by deep tactical understanding and mutual banter between the hosts. Both acknowledge the uncertainty and drama inherent in cycling classics, mixing data, history, and personal anecdotes to paint a vivid picture for listeners at all levels of familiarity with the sport.

In summary:
This episode provides a nuanced, point-by-point breakdown of the state of the men’s peloton heading into Paris-Roubaix, framed by Pogačar’s audacious ambitions, Van der Poel’s dominance, and all the factors—luck, weather, teamwork, and sheer brutality—that make the Hell of the North so special. Whether you’re a casual fan or a cycling lifer, it’s a discussion full of insight, opinion, and reverence for the suffering and spectacle of the sport.