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Can Pro Cycling’s Relegation System Be Fixed? | Vuelta a España Stage 8 Analysis & Stage 9 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:44:17
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jasper Philipsen's eighth stage win of the Vuelta a España on a quiet sprint stage into Zaragoza. Outside of Philipsen's dominance, they discuss the relegation of Elia Viviani, and Johan gives his thoughts...
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- [00:00]
Johan Berniel
Well, it's also, I mean obviously due to the, the fact that little track comes here with a team also with around Ciccone.
- [00:07]
Spencer Martin
So there's who's now looking like he could maybe win the whole thing so.
- [00:12]
Johan Berniel
Well, we'll see. No, we don't know but we don't know that yet.
- [00:15]
Spencer Martin
But they kind of have to believe that though.
- [00:18]
Johan Berniel
He looks good. He looks good. I think he looks good. He looks good for podium.
- [00:24]
Spencer Martin
Everybody. Welcome back to the Move Plus I'm Spencer Martin, I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are breaking down stage eight of the Vuelta Espana won by Jasper Phillip over Ethan Vernon and Arne Marit in a pretty not routine bunch sprint. It was not the most exciting day but the final kilometers were quite hectic. Johan, I'm, I'm excited to get your take on that and when we are done with that, we will preview tomorrow stage nine a summit finish. Before we get into it, let's take a quick break to hear from our partners and then we'll get your thoughts. Johan on the stage, everybody. Our partner for Today's show is AG1, the daily foundational nutrition supplement that supports whole body health. I drink it every day. I gave AG1 a try because I was tired of taking so many supplements and wanted a single solution that supports my entire body and covers my nutritional bases every day. 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Where you heard about them. Please say us so that they know where you came from and you can support us that way. All right, let's get into the show. So, Johan, the today's stage rundown will be short. It started there was a three rider breakaway with John John Boo and two other people I whose names escape me. But they were out there. They were being pulled in by the peloton. The GC teams were at the front, very active coming into the finish. It was a circuit finish, if I'm not mistaken. I was not watching this stage Maybe close as I have others. When it got to the final kilometers it was pretty hectic. We had picnic post and L up there. Interesting to me, like Alpecin does this thing where they stay. They just like stay back until like 4 or 5 kilometers to the line. You don't even see them. They come forward. The only wrinkle of the day, I don't know if you've noticed like throughout the whole year, it's the playbook is Alpecin or whatever the sprint team is, gets to the front one. They have three riders in a row. They launched their sprinter first. Their sprinter wins. No one can come around them because the speed is so high. Today it was so hectic. Alpecin had two riders at the front. Phillipson was buried though. He was back behind Elliot Viviani. So his leadouts completely disconnect from him. They pull off, Viviani goes, Phillipson has to follow. Viviani sees a gap on the left hand side of the road, goes through the gap. He's getting squeezed by a floating weaving Viviani who is um, let's just say in a veteran move trying to pin him against the barriers so he can't pass them. Phillipson gets around though, like three, something like three pedal strokes in the last 25 meters and he just shot around him on that left hand side wins the stage. Viviani though gets relegated. He was always going to get relegated even if he won that on the line. And then Vernon is promoted to second, Marit third. Other notes are Matt Pedersen gets the full points at the intermediate sprint and then finishes outside the top 10. So like yet again it's kind of like two steps forward for Pedersen, one step back. So he's still. Only. He's nine points ahead of Ethan Vernon. Like it's not a blowout lead at the moment in the green jersey classification. But Johan, what are your big takeaways from the stage?
- [06:28]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, well, as you said Spencer, you know, uneventful stage. I saw exactly the same as you did. Lotto was in my opinion the best lead out team today with with Alex Sigart who did an impressive pull and then Jasper the best launching Elia Viviani. Alpecin was good also with Rikard and, and Blancard as usual. But as we said, Philipson loses the wheel drafts of Viviani and comes around. I mean there's no surprises, right? I didn't see Viviani. I mean we hadn't talked about him yet and we didn't even mention him in, in as one of our potential winners yesterday. But it's Still, Elia Viviani, it's not, definitely not the Viviani anymore we have seen. He will never, I don't think he will ever reach that level again. But I was quite impressed with him, you know, I mean he was a part of the fact that he got DQ'd and I would like to debate a bit about that a bit later. But it would have been nice man. For Viviani, this is obviously not a super strong sprinters field and for him, I mean it was telling because I don't know if you saw how disappointed he was after the finish. I mean he, I think he was, I think he was crying seeing him so close. I mean this is probably going to be his last year as a professional cyclist on the road. At least we all know he got this last minute chance at Lotto to get, you know, a shot at another season and, and for him to, you know, to be so close to a stage win in, in the Vuelta is, would be, would have been nice. I mean, what about his disqualification, Spencer? Obviously, when you look at it, I, I straight away also thought, okay, they're going to disqualify him. Was it really that bad though what he did?
- [08:30]
Spencer Martin
I think in another era he probably gets away with it. Right?
- [08:33]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I want, I mean, I'm gonna say it differently, Spencer. It definitely was not deliberate. Viviani is known in the bunch, as far as I understand, as a very straightforward sprinter. You've hardly seen him implicated in any controversy in sprints. And he was actually also quite open about it. He says this is not the way, if I win, this is not the way I win usually or if I want to win. So I think the way sprints have been judged in the last few years, this is obviously, this was clear that you know, it was going to be a dq.
- [09:16]
Spencer Martin
But still he did that.
- [09:18]
Johan Berniel
I think, I think, yeah, go ahead.
- [09:20]
Spencer Martin
Like he could get through Phillipson. So that would be the argument, if you think he shouldn't be relegated, that he did not close them fully against the barriers. There was still a lame. He did not.
- [09:32]
Johan Berniel
But also if you look, Spencer, I mean, you know, the way these finishes are this, I mean, I just don't mean there was this bend again, right?
- [09:40]
Spencer Martin
What is going on with that and.
- [09:44]
Johan Berniel
How do you think we can avoid this in the future? Obviously, listen, I mean there was a few weeks ago we saw Donnie Van Poppel getting relegated in stage in the Tour of Germany, which in my opinion was not a relegation at all. So you know, if you, if I thought about, okay, Van Popo got relegated this is going to be the same thing. He's going to get relegated. There's no way they could let it pass. But how can they actually. How can cycling find a way to apply the same kind of judgment in sprints is what I'm curious about? Because it's always depending on, you know, a judge. I've asked the question a few days ago to a very high cycling official I met, and I asked him, I said, you know, how do you guys judge this? You know, and I. I was suggesting that there always has to be. And not just in a commission, but actually on the spot. This is, this is. Do you know what the VR VAR is like in football? The var?
- [10:55]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah. Oh, yeah.
- [10:56]
Johan Berniel
This is the var.
- [10:57]
Spencer Martin
Right.
- [10:57]
Johan Berniel
In cycling, there needs to be a freshly retired sprinter present at the various, in my opinion, to make that call or to at least advise the people, the commissars. I think that would be a great first step. That's not the case, as far as I understand. How can they. How could cycling find a formula that it's consistent and that the judgments are always more or less in the same. I mean, this. It's the same kind of conditions that, that are applied.
- [11:37]
Spencer Martin
They probably should have, like the NHL. I hope they still do this. So I don't sound like I'm wrong, but at least a few years ago, they would. They just like have people sitting in a room in Toronto, like ex professionals. A controversial call happens.
- [11:50]
Johan Berniel
Boom.
- [11:50]
Spencer Martin
Like they're reviewing it, you know, like where no matter where the game is happening, they make a ruling, they call back to the refs. That's it. That's the ruling. Like, they probably need something like that where there's ex professionals sitting in Switzerland just with like a big monitor and it's like, oh, call them in. What's the ruling? And then they call back and they say what it is. If you look at the language of the, the letter of the law, it says something like, you're not supposed to deviate from your lane. Not your line, your lane. Well, you get the point.
- [12:19]
Johan Berniel
I'm glad you bring that up, Spencer. I've, I've been talking about already in the past, but I've been thinking about this today. You know, I mean, how difficult would it be? Not. It's not difficult at all. Every stage. Not not. I mean, every stage. Because you could also have a sprint probably in a, In a, In a, In a mountain stage. The mountain stages is more difficult. But, you know, at least the stages that are, you know, planned to be a sprint Stage and, you know, and then if they don't turn into sprint stage, no big deal. But the word lane, not line, lane. Okay, so you have lanes, like in, like on a track and field. Yeah. You know, so lanes. And in my opinion, there's two things that would need to happen. Number one, you can go from one lane to the other, but not two. So there's different lanes. Right. And you can move from one lane to the next one. Because you never know if you're close to the line. You know, you may have. You may be pushed or you may have to, but you can never move two lanes. Once you get out of two lanes, you're cute. And then on top of that, in order to get that system, we need. And this, this is something that should be imposed on every single organizer. Every stage that is a sprint stage, the last 300 meters need to be a straight line. It's not that difficult. It's not that difficult. You know, I mean, they can say whatever they want. Yeah, we need to do it there. No, no, it's the safety of the riders first. And it's, you know, bends, even slight bends in a sprint stage, you know, they say, yeah, we've always done it. Well, we're not doing it anymore because there's a lot of other things that are not. Are done.
- [14:10]
Spencer Martin
A lot of things used to happen.
- [14:12]
Johan Berniel
That don't happen anymore. So I think, you know, at least 300 meters straight, it needs to be a certain width that needs to be the norm and needs to be imposed on the organizers. And then lanes, it's simple. And then it would take probably a season or two, but once the riders are used to it, it's super, super simple to always apply the same conditions for judgment. What do you think? I'm at 2.
- [14:39]
Spencer Martin
No, I was going to say the problem with lane is, well, the road's moving all over the place. So how do you stay in the same lane? And then the only problem with your solution is, did you see the finishing straight today? Could you tell where the finish line was? There's like lines everywhere. Yeah, they gotta, like, they would have to.
- [14:57]
Johan Berniel
It's what we see. But, you know, the riders see the arch, you know.
- [15:00]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah. So they would have to like, I guess pave or paint over the existing. I mean, it was a beautiful road. Looked great, but yeah, I like that because I was in Colmar, France, which is very old, very old town. Not many straight roads. And I know a tour stage finished there recently and I went out and looked where it finished. They Picked the straightest road in town. It's like. Well, that's how it should be like. Every town's got a pretty straight road. You could probably find Viviani, do you know when the last time he went a Grand Tour stage, what the year was? Wow. It's actually not as long ago as I thought.
- [15:45]
Johan Berniel
Didn't he when a stage in the Tour three, four years ago.
- [15:50]
Spencer Martin
I, I remember that as well. That was not three, four years ago. That was 2019.
- [15:55]
Johan Berniel
Oh wow.
- [15:55]
Spencer Martin
That's how fast time is moving.
- [15:57]
Johan Berniel
Oh wow.
- [15:57]
Spencer Martin
He hasn't won a World Tour stage in a World Tour race in Europe since 2019 either. The Homburg Classic, which is now. Yeah. So this would have been huge for him. Really disappointing that he didn't actually. Super impressive from Phillipson that he still won it but another relegation that no one will notice. Brian Kakard got six.
- [16:16]
Johan Berniel
I've. I've checked that. Yeah, that was going to be a difficult one for Cofitis.
- [16:20]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, the point system because the other day they were only leading unox by three points and that was 45 points for sixth place out the window. That's to me. I. I didn't see. I, I don't even. I wasn't staring at six. The sixth place sprint. But I didn't check.
- [16:36]
Johan Berniel
I didn' Stuff happened. But yeah. Yeah. Well also Spencer. 15th Grand Tour stage for Jasper Philipson.
- [16:46]
Spencer Martin
Well, I was gonna have us take a quick ad break and then come back and, and shower Philipson with praise because this is pretty impressive. Okay, we'll be right back everybody. This show is brought to you by hims. If you're watching this, this VTA closely and you are losing your hair, it is tough because you're seeing Joala made out there with. With an all time mop. You're seeing Juana you so with just effortlessly effortless great hair. The guy has a helmet on all day. Takes his helmet off after the stage. Still looks good. So if, if you want to match these guys, you, you used to not be able to, but now you can with hims because through hims you can take the next step with confidence and you can access treatments made with clinic clinically proven ingredients like finasteride, minoxidil to stop hair loss and regrow hair in three to six months. No waiting rooms, no hoops, just ingredients with a track record of results. HIMS offers convenient access to a range of prescription hair loss treatments with ingredients that work including chews, oral medications, serums and sprays. It's doctor trusted clinically proven Ingredients like finasteride and minoxidil that can stop hair loss and regrow hair in as little as three to six months. For simple online access to personalized and affordable hair to care for hair loss, ED, weight loss and more, visit hims.com themove that's him. Himshims.com themove for your free online visit today. Individual results may vary based on studies of topical and oral minoxidide and finasteride, minoxidil and finasteride prescription required. See website for full details, restrictions and important safety information. Everybody. This episode is also brought to you by our fantastic partner, ketoneiq. One of the teams in this race leading the favorite to win this Valtespana team Visma Lisa bike is using Ketone iq. So if you're out there seeing Jonas Vinegard just, just effortlessly getting up these climbs, you know he's, he's weaving a web that he hopes Joalameda will fall into along with Felix G and Julio Ciccone. And he's doing it with the recovery and energy provided to him by Ketone IQ. If you want to try Ketone IQ, there are two great options. Ketone IQ Classic Shot, a high performance energy shot with 10 grams of ketone, A clean, a clean energy with no sugar or caffeine. But if you need a little kick, they have ketone IQ plus caffeine, 5 grams of ketones, 100 milligrams of caffeine from green tea, a two stage energy shot with caffeine to get you going and ketones for longer sustained mental energy. We were using ketone IQ in the studio at the Tudor France. The days get long. We're down there, there's no sunlight. You can, you can start to feel tired in the afternoon. It's the, the, the doldrums of the day. But we were using it and all of us reported back we did not feel tired after using ketone IQ in our normal dead spots of the afternoon. So that would tell you that, that it, that it's working, especially that longer sustained mental energy which can be the toughest thing to get. And coffee will, will not give that to you, unfortunately. So take your shot, get 20% off your order@ketone.com themove and use code the movement for your 20% off today. Okay, Johan? Yeah, you're right. 15th Grand Tour stage win. Do you know the last? Really? I, I would say I was more impressed with the sprint the second, third, fourth, fifth time I watched it because he does not have much time to get around Viviani. And it's like couple pedal strokes, boom, flips by like the guy is just clearly the best Grand Tour sprinter we have currently. Do you know the last Grand Tour he raced where he did not win a stage? It was kind of a devastating race for him, if you recall, because he was getting consistently second placed by Mark Cavendish.
- [20:41]
Johan Berniel
Oh yeah. Tour de France. No.
- [20:44]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. 2021 is the last time. That's the last year he started in a Grand Tour and did not.
- [20:49]
Johan Berniel
I think he won 10 stages in the Tour and this is now his fifth stage in the, in the Vuelta. He's never won a stage in the Giro.
- [20:58]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, he's never started.
- [21:00]
Johan Berniel
He'd never ridden the Giro, I think.
- [21:02]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Which I mean who are we to give notes to Jasper Phillips calendar.
- [21:08]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, you can say what you want. I mean he crashes hard out of the Tour de France, was most likely going to be winning several stages. Also in the Tour trains again, you know, wins two stages already now, now the question is how is, how long is he going to keep going? Because I checked the stages, Spencer, there's nothing left.
- [21:32]
Spencer Martin
I was going to ask you. Yeah. Is this the last we've seen of Philipson?
- [21:36]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Also another thing I saw today, you know we. Because yesterday we spoke about Philipson and Pedersen. Pedersen was, was not in the mix today but I mean he's been up there with sprints the last 20 times that Phillipson and Pedersen sprinted against each other together. Jasper Phillipson won 16 times over Phillips, over.
- [22:02]
Spencer Martin
Over Patterson.
- [22:02]
Johan Berniel
Wow. And Mats three times ahead of Phillipson.
- [22:09]
Spencer Martin
And I would bet I used to have a subscription to like the service that would tell you this but like I would wonder what the gradient of the final kilometers were of those Pederson wins over Phillipson. Wow. That's. That. That would have been good to know yesterday when we were doing.
- [22:25]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I didn't know that yesterday.
- [22:27]
Spencer Martin
Wow, that's impressive. I mean Pedersen kind of interesting you, you perceive him to be a sprinter but today when it's really this was kind of an old school sprint like Philipson had to freelance off a rival's wheel. You don't see that so much.
- [22:41]
Johan Berniel
It's also I mean obviously due to the, the fact that little track comes team also with around Chicone.
- [22:47]
Spencer Martin
So there's this who's now looking like he could maybe win the whole thing so. Well, we'll see.
- [22:54]
Johan Berniel
No, we don't know but we don't know that yet.
- [22:55]
Spencer Martin
But they kind of have to believe that though, right?
- [22:59]
Johan Berniel
He looks good.
- [22:59]
Spencer Martin
I think he looks good.
- [23:00]
Johan Berniel
He looks good. For podium.
- [23:03]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, he does. He does. Which would be. Which would be really big for him. Couple things we missed yesterday or we didn't. We didn't miss them. We were editing ourselves as we were doing the show. David Godu loses, like, 14 minutes yesterday. Santiago Butchago loses a ton of time yesterday as well. And then another writer today. Who. Did you notice this? Who's who? He must have sat up. I cannot imagine. He was dropped. Juana, you saw. What do you make of that?
- [23:31]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, he. I mean, you know, there was this steep. There was this steep little climb on the local circuit, and so he just let it go. So it's clear that he wants to go another time for our stage.
- [23:45]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, that's kind of what made it. Made me think the only thing about that. And, yeah, it's like, gonna.
- [23:52]
Johan Berniel
Right.
- [23:52]
Spencer Martin
That's awesome. If he wants another stage, it's like I. In my mind, I was like, oh, now he's only like six and a half, seven minutes behind the GC guys. Like, what if he stays that close and gets into a move? Does that start to pressure the other GC riders? That's probably why he sat up. So he's not pressuring them. But do you think for UAE it would have been better just to not give up that time and then maybe things start to get complicated if he gets in two more breaks and then suddenly he's challenging for the race lead?
- [24:19]
Johan Berniel
No, I think. I think they're very realistic about that. I think Ayuso knows that he's not in the form to be rivaling with at least the levels of Almeida, Vingegaard, Chicone. He feels that, so he knows that. Sorry.
- [24:37]
Spencer Martin
It shows you how hard it is to be a GC contender when you think, like, how hard I used to win on that climb, like, how hard it rode to win that stage.
- [24:46]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [24:47]
Spencer Martin
And that. That's still not fit enough to survive. Like, the violence of the final climb in the GC group.
- [24:52]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [24:54]
Spencer Martin
You know, someone I. We. I should have called him out yesterday, and I didn't. We give him a lot of crap on the show. I was saying I. I want to see Iuso, like, holding on and finishing 40 seconds back. You know, who's been doing that all year, and people, even myself, have been perplexed by it. Tom Pidcock, like, teaching himself to, like, I'm dropped, but I'm not going to sit up and chase stages. Like, Pidcock actually has quietly been kind of showing a discipline I didn't know he had. And he's writing, he's.
- [25:22]
Johan Berniel
He's riding well. I. I mean, the way it's going right now, I think Pitcock is on track to be top 10 in. In the world. I mean, not that it's. I mean, it's obviously not an unbelievable result, but, you know, he needs to start somewhere.
- [25:42]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [25:42]
Johan Berniel
And I think he. I think he focused on his welta for gc. He climbs a lot better than I've ever seen him climb, except that one time he went on, but that was from a breakaway, so. And now, for the moment, he's up there with the top GC guys on the climbs. So, yeah, I think Pitcock is doing well.
- [26:07]
Spencer Martin
I mean, another example of GC climbing being so much different than breakaway climbing. Before we move on to tomorrow stage, what do you think happened to David Godu?
- [26:17]
Johan Berniel
Like, how does that moment.
- [26:19]
Spencer Martin
How does that happen?
- [26:20]
Johan Berniel
I don't know. I don't know. He looked amazing in the beginning of the Vuelta, was up there with the climbers, took the red jersey also. And then now all of a sudden, he's 15 minutes down. I don't know. He was. You know, he was this unbelievable talent. I remember when he came to the pros, you know, he.
- [26:47]
Spencer Martin
He was.
- [26:47]
Johan Berniel
He was pictured as the. At this guy with this unbelievable VO2, Max Watts, per kilo, champion, whatever, won the Tour de la Veneer, I think, just before he turned pro. And, yeah, I mean, he's just this. I don't know. He's just so inconsistent. You know, I don't know if it's because of his position at Groupoma fdg. I mean, he's there as, you know, the. The flagship rider basically for gc.
- [27:20]
Spencer Martin
But.
- [27:20]
Johan Berniel
For some reason, always falls apart. I mean, I've said it already a few times, you know, like, it's.
- [27:29]
Spencer Martin
It's.
- [27:29]
Johan Berniel
It is typical for young French talents who are on one of those typical French teams. And, you know, the typical French team by excellence is Groupon, my fdg. That's like.
- [27:40]
Spencer Martin
It's.
- [27:41]
Johan Berniel
You become. You become a employee of a government company.
- [27:48]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [27:49]
Johan Berniel
It's the truth. And. And, you know, and go do reportedly, you know, I mean, man. Yeah, now and then he does something good. But, you know, for a 2.5 million contract per year, he should do a bit more.
- [28:02]
Spencer Martin
You know, I was gonna say he's probably the highest paid government employee in the country. I mean, I think about. Actually, this shows you. We get so excited. We. Not we specifically, just like. We as a group, like a young rider comes along with a great. You were Just saying. Paul Seychas with six point. It was like 6.63 watts per kilo for 25 minutes. I looked that up, by the way. I think Juan. Not Juan, you. So Joao made a Tour of Switzerland for the final time trial, which was about 25 minutes and it was a climb, was like 6.8. So that's almost, almost the same level as the guy that was going, that won the Tour. Switzerland was going to the Tour to support, but. Gotcha. But you like, you can hear these numbers, you see these performances and you can project out what their career should be. Go do is a great example of like, well, you can have all the tools. It just isn't coming together in the way it needs to. Like, you don't never really know how people are going to project out as finished professionals.
- [28:58]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, yeah, definitely, definitely disappointment. I mean, I, I thought, I thought that Cody was looking to do a decent Vuelta, even the top five. I mean, he's been, I think close to top five in the past when several stages already. So in this field, I think I was thinking he would be up there, but I mean he's probably going to be in one of this in the next stages in a breakaway and win a mountain stage. So.
- [29:27]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. And am I right in thinking I'm just off the top of my head. The most successful French writers recently come from non French teams. Right. Like Philippe Gilbert. Not Philippe Belgian. Like when Ale Philippe was chasing that Tour success. That was. Yeah, he was, yeah. Like, am I missing a French rider on a French team? But probably even think of.
- [30:00]
Johan Berniel
I mean, look, I mean even. It's not even about the Tour, but I mean, okay, he was sick this year, but you know, last year and the year before. Christophe Laporte on Visma.
- [30:08]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, exactly. Some really good races, you know, Great example.
- [30:12]
Johan Berniel
One guy in the game was European champion.
- [30:15]
Spencer Martin
Yep. His first altitude camp was after he left. Just hard to imagine. But anything else on the stage, Johan, before you want to go preview tomorrow?
- [30:29]
Johan Berniel
No, I think, I think that's it. I think we've, we've. I mean, it's not, not much about it except the sprint and the DQ or the relegation. It's not a disqualification. It's a relegation.
- [30:40]
Spencer Martin
Right? Not. But they do get yellow cards. Which.
- [30:44]
Johan Berniel
Did he get a yellow card?
- [30:46]
Spencer Martin
They both got yellow cards. Viviani and Kakard.
- [30:49]
Johan Berniel
So if they have another. If they get another one, they're out.
- [30:53]
Spencer Martin
I believe it's two in one race, three in one month, six in one year. So.
- [31:00]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, I think, I think the risk of getting kicked out is small because the. Probably. The next bunch print is probably going to be in Madrid, so. Well, you still need to make it till there.
- [31:10]
Spencer Martin
So I would be if. Well, I guess these guys don't have the luxury. They probably have to stay in the race, but that would be bleak. Can you imagine that? Being a sprinter on the first rest days, thinking the next sprint stage is the last day of this race. Yeah, that would be hard. Any sprinters that stay in the race, I, I'm impressed. And that explains why, like, Tim earlier is not here. Like, they don't. They don't. That, that's a, That's a tough sell.
- [31:36]
Johan Berniel
That's also probably why, you know, the, The, The. The biggest rival for Mats Pedersen for Green will be one of the GC riders and not another sprinter.
- [31:46]
Spencer Martin
Yep. Yeah, that's a good point. I, I am curious. I mean, Vernon just can't climb like Pedersen as we saw yesterday. Like, that was. What you say that was the most cumulative climbing meters.
- [31:57]
Johan Berniel
Well, actually there's one. There's one state. Just today I found out there's one stage that is almost identical. So stage 20, the. The stage in. In Madrid over Nava Serrada and Lavola del mundo has like 10 or 20 meters more than. Than yesterday stage.
- [32:12]
Spencer Martin
Okay. Yeah, but the fact that Pedersen was there until the final climb shows you. Yeah, he could. He's not going to be beaten by another spinner. Probably it will come from vinegard, who is 50 points back. Sounds like a lot, but if Vinegard starts winning these mountain stages, that gets complicated. Might not, though. We don't know how that's going to play out, but. Okay, let's go. Let's take a quick break and then we'll preview tomorrow's stage nine. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by Element. You hear, you hear him talk about it all the time, but Lance is a big sweater. And you know what? So am I. I'm not as vocal about it, but he, he has come out and, and pronounced himself a sweater. So it's not so embarrassing for me. And I, I'm not gonna lie. This is. I'm obsessed with element. I would use element whether they were our partner or not. It's one of my favorite products I buy for. For my own rides. It has 1000mg of sodium, 200mg of potassium, and 60mg of magnesium. 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I come home and I'm seeing on my Garmin, my sleep scores are immediately better. Helix mattresses have changed the way I sleep. I cannot recommend them enough. And if you want a Helix mattress but you don't know which one to get, you just go to the website, you take their personalized sleep quiz and they'll tell you which one to buy. It's. It's genius. You don't have to even make a decision. So if this sounds interesting to you, if you want to sleep better, if you want to ride better as a result, if you want to function better as an employee, a partner, a father, mother, whatever you are. Their Labor Day sale is ending soon, so make sure you check it out now. 27% off. All orders on the site go to helixsleep.com themove make sure to enter our show name after checkout, so they know we sent you. That's helixsleep.com themove for 27% off your order. Okay, Johan. Tomorrow, stage nine. We are. We're out of the oddly time sprint stages. The Saturday prime time sprint stage. Not quite sure why that happened, but this is a classic vault of stage. It is first categorized climb is the last categorized climb. It's the. It's the final climb. 13.33 kilometers long, 5.2% doesn't sound that hard. But the first half, it's really climbing two halves. The first, let's say 7 kilometers all over 7% with some kilometers over 8% average. And then the last half is like 4% or lower average with the last kilometer being like 2 and a half percent. So either you get away in the first half and stay away from. Or you're with the GC group and you're sprinting out of a small GC group. The odds currently are Jonas Finnegaard. Once again, I don't understand these odds. Jonas Finegaard plus 550. He's not a known summit finish sprinter. Juan Uso, second at plus 700 Jvine plus 900. Julio Ciccone plus 1400. David Gadu plus 1800 Mark Solaire plus 1800 J plus 2000 Tom Pickock plus 2000. Antonio Tiberi plus 2200. It goes on and on. Marco Frigo plus 2500. That's another guy that's been good, but we'll call him out. We need to once again go to nxtbets.com bet outcomes if you want to actually lay some action down, it will tell you how to do it and where to get the best price and the best signup bonus. But Johan, how's this going to play out? Break away your GC and who's going to win?
- [37:20]
Johan Berniel
Difficult one, you know, Valdescaray. It's as you said, a 13 kilometer climb. Hard, harder at the beginning. The. The last 3K are easy. I mean easy depends on the speed, of course of the. Of the group. But it's like, you know, 2%, 3% max. I checked. Actually, it's.
- [37:41]
Spencer Martin
It's.
- [37:41]
Johan Berniel
This is in Larioja, in the. The wine. The famous wine area in Spain. It belongs to Larioja Valdis Karay.
- [37:49]
Spencer Martin
It's a small ski station.
- [37:53]
Johan Berniel
A stage with just one big climb. So a Uni Puerto Mono Puerto stage, as they call it. I think I think breakaway is a potential outcome. As long as it's okay for Thorsten Train and Warain, I think they will let the group go. I'm gonna go for Jay vine again. He's plus 700. I think a breakaway can make it, especially because that last climb is not super, super difficult. And I think a breakaway can get enough. It's going to depend. It's going to depend on Visma, what Visma wants to do. And since, since the climb is not ideal for you and us.
- [38:35]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [38:36]
Johan Berniel
I would think that they're not going to put too much effort into absolutely wanting to bring the brake back. And as long as the brake is okay with the time difference to the red jersey, I think Thorsten Train can hang on tomorrow on red again. Jane. Jay vine for me seems like a good option. At plus 700.
- [38:57]
Spencer Martin
He might be plus 900 now. I refreshed the page. Well, I. I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go super J Vine. I, I the same exact thought. I don't think Visma is going to pull it back because I don't think the final down. I bet they don't like the final climb. They don't think the juice is worth the squeeze. That's the phrase we've been hearing all week. I'm gonna go. Juana E. So plus 700. The fact that he was sitting up today tells me he is targeting the stage. He's trying to win another stage. He's probably stronger than Jay Vine. I think I said two days ago I didn't think he was, but that was really. That was a really impressive stage win. So I'm gonna go. I use so to win out of.
- [39:35]
Johan Berniel
The breakaway and how much.
- [39:38]
Spencer Martin
What's.
- [39:38]
Johan Berniel
What are his odds?
- [39:39]
Spencer Martin
He's plus 700.
- [39:41]
Johan Berniel
Okay.
- [39:43]
Spencer Martin
I mean, pretty good. You could honestly bet both of these guys if you want.
- [39:47]
Johan Berniel
How much did he lose, actually? Are you. So are you. So I don't find him in the results. So he didn't.
- [40:01]
Spencer Martin
Well, if he didn't finish, that's bad. He lost five and a half minutes today.
- [40:07]
Johan Berniel
Oh, wow. So second to last. Yeah. Okay. And J Vine last. Yeah, yeah. Jayvine lost six minutes, so both of those guys are going for it. So. Yeah. I think there's another possibility, Spencer, that if it is gc, I think it's going to be difficult. We're going to see a group again, in my opinion. There might be some attacks at the beginning of that climb, but then they won't get far enough away. And especially if, if it's. If it's again, Jonas and. And Chicone and Almeida. You know, they're not going to ride full because they will be wary of. Okay. Somebody might attack from behind. So I could see if it's a gc. I could see, for example, Chiconi winning this because he's probably one of the fastest guys of the GC guys. And especially at + 1600, I'm gonna pick him as my second choice in case it's this GC riders. I was just fighting it out.
- [41:10]
Spencer Martin
I. I agree. I was just looking at him thinking, I kind of like that rider better than the one I was gonna pick. I do think Chcone probably. This is. This is the Chicone stage. I guess the question is, does a little track hole for him? Probably not, because now they're thinking about gc. It would have to. Visma would have to decide they want it back. But if it is, I mean, you.
- [41:31]
Johan Berniel
Know, also, if you think about little track, I mean, and especially on the clan, who are they going to pull with? Right. You know.
- [41:38]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Matt's Pedersen.
- [41:40]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Matt's Patterson can basically do everything. Yeah.
- [41:44]
Spencer Martin
But it is kind of. It's. The problem is the climb is inverted. If it was the opposite.
- [41:48]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [41:48]
Spencer Martin
And it was 5% for the first half, Mads Pederson would be great. Matt's Pedersen probably won't be there after that. And then you could imagine actually getting close and then this breakaway dangling, and no one. No one in the GC group has the firepower left to pull it back. And it's just like you're watching this frustrating, excruciating, excruciating moment. If you've bet on the GC group, I'm gonna go Al Mada plus 2000 thought. He looks pretty. Pretty strong, pretty punchy yesterday. And he kind of. He's not a great sprinter, but at the top of these climbs, sometimes he's like. It just has, like, such a big engine. You can just kind of get on the front and no one can get around him. So that's what I would be betting on happening.
- [42:28]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [42:30]
Spencer Martin
Why. Why is Jonas Vinagard at +550? I mean, is this. He has. I guess he's looked pretty fast in the first week.
- [42:40]
Johan Berniel
I mean, and also. I mean, he also. In the Tour, he also showed. I mean, he was also going fast. I mean, he didn't. He was up there in some of the sprints.
- [42:49]
Spencer Martin
Yeah.
- [42:50]
Johan Berniel
You know, so anytime. Anytime that today went, he was basically almost on the wheel, so. But he's not here.
- [43:00]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. But I guess being on a wheel is a little different than. Yeah, like, how many times have we really seen him, like, smoke people in sprints? We did.
- [43:09]
Johan Berniel
Not many.
- [43:09]
Spencer Martin
Yes. I guess not many times.
- [43:11]
Johan Berniel
But I think he's the favorite because of his pedigree. You know, it's. That's. I think.
- [43:15]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, that's.
- [43:18]
Johan Berniel
And he did win a stage in the sprint here already.
- [43:21]
Spencer Martin
True. That was like 8%, though. That was quite steep.
- [43:24]
Johan Berniel
Yeah.
- [43:24]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's like 2 1/2%. That's. That's a different ball game.
- [43:28]
Johan Berniel
Yeah, for sure.
- [43:29]
Spencer Martin
But, yeah, you're right. He has one in sprint. It's his pedigree. So that makes sense why he's the favorite. Chicono and Chicone. That would actually be fun to see them sprint against each other. I don't think it's going to happen. I think it's breakaway. Well, anything else before we go?
- [43:45]
Johan Berniel
No, Spencer, that's it.
- [43:47]
Spencer Martin
All right, well, thanks, Johan. And we will be back tomorrow for stage nine and stage nine. No, sorry, we won't be back tomorrow. We will be back.
- [43:55]
Johan Berniel
Yeah. Back on the move. On the move recap on Monday. Yeah.
- [43:59]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Yes. Don't listen to what I just said. Anybody. We will not be back. We're taking Sunday off and then we'll be back on Monday.
- [44:07]
Johan Berniel
Okay.
- [44:07]
Spencer Martin
All right.
- [44:08]
Johan Berniel
On.
- [44:08]
Spencer Martin
Thanks and we'll talk soon.