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Can UAE Realistically Challenge Vingegaard at This Vuelta? | Vuelta a España Stage 10 Analysis & Stage 11 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:43:00
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Jay Vine's performance to win his second stage at this Vuelta a España on a summit finish, where the GC group once again traded light blows behind before coming in just over a minute down. Johan also...
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- [00:00]
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C
Win for Jay vine, super strong writer who is been given the freedom to go in breakaways. I think that kind of fits into the strategy of UAE I think I mean if they're really really honest they know that it will take a small miracle for Almeida to beat Jonas Vingengaard in this welta. And you know we've been very critical about UAE for different reasons but if you look at today done 10 stages and UAE has won 4 stages in this Vuelta so not bad. It's not bad at all. And so they're in second. They're they're most likely going to be on the podium in this Vuelta and they're most likely going to win the kom.
- [01:40]
A
Everybody welcome back to the Move Plus I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bruneil. We are breaking down stage 10 of the Vuelta Espana won by Jay vine, his second stagement of this race. 4th well to win of his career. Stage win of his career and the light GC action behind that. Joel Ometa tried to make something happen with the help of Juana you so shockingly but the main guys came in together. We we know pretty much the same as we knew before the stage Johan but we did see Juana you said working for the team so we will talk about that. We will talk about the situation. The befuddlement from IUSO about why was announced he was leaving the team on the rest day instead of after the race. But after we do that we will also preview stage 11 give our picks. I will do a short recap of the stage. It was kind of a funny stage because we turn it on. The TV coverage starts, no breakaway away. I thought for sure there would be a breakaway. There was. You could, like, see the formation happening. But this is a hundred kilometers after the race start. Race starts. A move finally gets clear who. Who bridges across, though, other than one or not. Jonas Vinegaard with Victor Campenaerts with them. Kind of a strange move. Don't quite know what that was about, but that kills the breakaway. Another move eventually goes, and then Jay vine smartly sits back, lets it form, and when he realizes, well, that's the movie. Bridges up with his teammate Miko Berg pulling him. Once vine is in the move, they don't know it, but the race is over because he is going to smoke them on the final climb. They get to the climb, vine said he was. He was playing possum. And this guy, Javier Romo for Movistar, incredible writer. Like, this guy is really strong. He broke away from the breakaway. He gets chased down. And then Pablo Castrilo, if you remember, he won two stages of the Volta last year on Firm Kern, Firma Pharma. I forget the name of that team. Karen Pharma. He looks like he's going to take it, but then vine kind of attacks behind, methodically reels him in, passes, and wins the stage behind that. In the GC group, you have. Who do you have at the front, other than UAE actually looking organized. Lining up a pace line at the bottom of the climb, making Cheryl Made is not out of position, not vulnerable to attacks. And then he has Juana. You so lead him out with a. With a strong pace for an attack. He goes. Jonas Finnegaard's right on him, can't drop him. And. But it was. Notice it was notable that he had Tom Pitcock right behind him and then Mateo Jorgensen. And the only other rider that could stay with him was Matthew Bricatello, bridging up away from Jul Lazari, who he's in a white jersey battle with. But once Almeida realizes he can't drop Vinderard, he sits up. Kind of a funny thing, because you have y. You have made it going hard in the GC group, and they're chasing down Jay vine up ahead. So I don't know if it was a calculation of like, well, I don't want to keep pressing because we're going to catch my teammate and he's not going to win the stage. Or should his teammate drop back and help him pace so he can drop these guys. I think they eventually realize we're not going to do Anything on this climb, we can't drop them. They take the stage, win. The GC guys come in together. Julia Chicone, who was dropped with Almeida. Almeida's attack is like sprinting into the finish. I don't really understand these GC group sprints when there's nothing on the line but they're doing it. They sprint in. Everyone is on the same time. I would say I was most impressed with Tom Pidcock, Johan not getting dropped, but also Felix Gall was distanced and then Ben o' Connor is fading away as. As well as Egan Bernal. But what was your takeaway of the day?
- [05:18]
C
Well, you recapped it well, Spencer, but my takeaway is of course, second stage win for Jay vine, super strong rider who has been given the freedom to go on breakaways. I think that kind of fits into the strategy of uae. I think. I mean, if they're really, really honest, they know that it will take a small miracle for Almeida to beat Jonas Fingergard in this welta. And you know, we've been very critical about UAE for different reasons, but if you look at Today, we've done 10 stages and UAE has won four stages in this VTA. So not bad. It's not bad at all. And so they're in second. They're. They're most likely going to be on the podium in this vta and they're most likely going to win the kombucha. I don't know about. I would have to look at the team classification, but anyways, they're doing well. So obviously Jay vine winning state the stage again and then, you know, other takeaway, not of the stage but of the whole day, is the continuation of the Juan Ayuso saga. As we said yesterday live on the show, we got the news during the recording that UAE had put out a statement on the rest day and today the aftermath was quite dramatic. So for me, that was kind of the event of the day, the whole Ayusu drama. You know, UAE makes a statement yesterday that, yes, they confirmed that they've come to an agreement with Juana Yusu to part ways after this season. And there's a few wordings in there. I think it was quite. I mean, there was nothing really, I would say nothing aggressive or nothing attacking. You could. I mean, if you know the situation, you can read in between the lines that one of the things said, for example, that, you know, for the harmony of the team or something like that, or, you know, we. We defer in our team vision, whatever. But apparently Ayuso took big Issue with the fact that the statement was put out yesterday and then also with the wording. And so he also gave an interview to the Spanish media at the start, at the team, at the team bus, and he was extremely, extremely on fire. He said that he didn't agree with the content and he also didn't agree with the timing. They had agreed before the Vuelta to issue the statement at the end of the Vuelta. So I don't know exactly what has been going on behind the scenes, but it's clear that Ayuso came to the Vuelta knowing that he was leaving and that he said that yesterday at 6:30 in the afternoon, he got told that the press release was going out at seven. So he said that he thinks that the intention of the team direction. He says the team direction. So I don't know, I mean, he must be referring to Giannetti and Macin, to their intention is to damage his image with the wording of this statement and that, you know, he's been trying to. To find common grounds, but calls the team like it's run as a dictatorship. I don't know. I don't know if that's the case. I don't think so. I think it's probably the income. Income incompatibility. How do you say that? They're not compatible.
- [09:00]
A
Not compatible?
- [09:01]
C
Yeah, the character of A. And the way he sees cycling and his position in cycling with the team. I think that's the issue. And then of course, if. If a rider like Ayuso doesn't get his way most of the time, he's going to say, well, you know, these guys are dictators. I. From a distance, right. I repeat, I'm saying this from a distance because I don't know what's going on within the team. I can just judge on what I see and mainly what I see in races, the behavior of Ayuso in races and then his interview. So that's a little bit my conclusion. I think one of the. One of. I mean, not a lot of people have picked up on it, but Almeida's statement, Almeida's interview after the race was quite telling. They asked him also about Juo. He said, you know, well, you know, he. He has to look for his own interest, you know, for his future. He's my teammate, he's not my friend. He said he's my teammate. That is, man, I mean, that little, that. That little phrase that he's not my friend. I think that says a lot. That says a lot. Yeah. Spencer, I don't know if you remember Last year in the Tour de France, the stage over the Galibier, where finally Pogachar 1 ran away, rode away on the Galibier. But I heard from someone, I can't remember who told me this, but there was already some tension in UAE because UAE was setting the pace. Ayuso was there at the beginning, then dropped back, but hung on, didn't get dropped from the group. And I think it was Almeida who was shouting over the radio something in along the lines as Juan, get your fat ass up here and pull. So I mean, it must have been somebody in that group who, who heard that, who I know it from. I don't remember who it is, but, you know, I mean, it's. It's clear that, that I think for Ayuso, it's probably the best that he. He leaves that team. You can't go on in, in a team if you feel like, you know, you're. You're a. Is the kind of rider. It's him. It's about Juana USO all the time or most of the time. And thing is, also, UAE doesn't need Juana Yusu. They have plenty of other writers. So. So, yeah, I mean, these statements came out today. Then there was this interview about Macin. Macin waited quite. I think. I don't know if the interview of Macin was before or after the stage, but he was very like, no, no, you know, we came to an agreement. It's a situation that. It is what it is. Juan is with us until the 31st of December of this year. He will do a great job in this Vuelta, blah, blah, blah, as if everything was okay. Everything's not okay, that's for sure. So we'll see now what happens. Obviously, we don't know right now what Ayuso's destination is going to be. There's a lot of talks about Little Trek could be a good option, I think, because they don't necessarily have a dominant GC rider. Is it the right environment? I'll say. I'll say. I'd say it could be okay. You know, they're obviously this Little Trek have made incredible step four steps forward the last few years. They're one of the best teams in terms of the infrastructure, the environment, all the people they have around the team. I personally also think that for Juanayuso Movistar could actually also be a good option. I know people are gonna say, yeah, you know, it's old school, it's, you know, they don't. They're not in the game. I Mean, if Juana Yusu goes to Movistar, there's a few things that we should consider. First of all, as far as I have been informed, they do have a bigger budget in the future with a new external investor coming in. External owner, co owner, they have a commitment until 2029. And he would be the number one rider all year long. Anytime he shows up, he would be the flagship of the team. And something tells me that in Movistar they're catching up and they're also hiring a lot of new people in the. I'm pretty sure I also would also have his say in that. So I don't know. I mean, I think it's going to be a matter of, of the contract. We're still in the unknown. Also, if there's now finally a buyout or not for Ayuso and if in case there's a buyout, then we can already say his team is decided already. Juana, you so has already made an agreement with another team if the buyout is agreed upon, because the buyout is not going to come out of a user's pocket, it's going to come out of the team's pocket. So we don't know that. But. But yeah, I mean, listen, we'll see. Well, I'm curious to see what's going to happen now. We're now, you know, in the middle of, of the Vuelta, just at the, at the, at the middle there's still, what is there, 11 stages to go. Curious to see how he's gonna move on in this Vuelta. Is he gonna be at the service of the team today? He tried. I mean, he, at least he showed intention. I think he could have done a lot better. But at least he was there and did a nice pull for, for Almeida. I just saw the interview of Machin that Machin says, you know, well, if there's an opportunity, he's gonna get another opportunity to win a stage. I personally think. I personally think he should just. I think I would not let Ayusu go and breakaways anymore. He needs to work for the team now. But do they have that power and authority over him? That's still an unknown to me.
- [15:19]
A
Well, that takes me. My question was going to be also we should say two things, two bits of housekeeping I didn't mention. At the top, Jonas Vinegar takes the race league back. So yeah, Torsten Trine probably should have said that. It was kind of very. It was weird. It was. His train didn't finish that far back. He's still second overall. But Vinegar just took just enough time to take the GC lead. Also, I've moved locations since Johan started his point. I lost WI fi at my house. So do not panic if you see me in a different location on. On YouTube. But Johan, my question would be, why is he still here? Like, what's the upside for UAE keeping him in the race if things have gotten so bad that they rushed? I kind of felt bad for ISO. It's saying, like, I didn't know going to release that. Well, that. That kind of stinks for him. But why even keep.
- [16:08]
C
Why do you think they released it all of a sudden, Spencer and not. And not waited at the. At the end. I ma. Just said, I just watched the. While you were gone, I just watched the interview. And he said, you know, the communication team decided to release it today. I don't really know the reason why.
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A
Oh, I don't know.
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C
So it must be. Must be a bit of a mess in there.
- [16:29]
A
I mean. I mean, if I was going to read between the lines, they agreed before the Vuelta that this would. That he would go. They took him. He was supposed to work for the team and then he sat up on Sunday. So just middle finger, I'm not gonna work. And then they got upset and they said, this is enough. And they released a statement would be.
- [16:50]
C
Yeah, do they actually. What. Okay, yeah, I can understand that in, you know, in the heat of the. Now you're pissed off and. But what do they gain? What does UAE gain by this, by releasing this? I can't see the upside.
- [17:04]
A
Well, did you not have Ayuso at the front of the peloton today? I mean, I don't know. I don't know what to think of it, but it did seem like maybe it put him in his place, for lack of better word. And then he's at the front working today. So clearly, like.
- [17:17]
C
Well, he was working. He was working because he's pissed off and he's. Yeah, it's definitely. I mean, he's working because he's pissed off. And he said, I'm going to show you guys that what I can do. We'll see if that. I mean, I think it's also possible that I used to just all of a sudden in the last week says, you know what? I'm out of here. I'm going to prepare for the world's.
- [17:40]
A
I feel like they would be fine with that. And I don't know. I mean, they're losing potential. Very big pieces of help. Right? Because at his best, if he's motivated he can help a lot. Also, if they don't release it, what are we talking about for the rest of this vault?
- [17:56]
C
I'm happy they released it, that's for sure. But. But also, you know, even if they lose Ayuso Spencer, it's not like he's not, you know, he's not key. He's not key in this Vuelta, you know. And it's clear that UAE will not have to be at any point in this race. The team that will have that has to wear the weight of the stage. It's going to be Visma and UAE is going to be, depending on how Almeida feels, will try to attack. Whether that's with or without a uso. Will that make a big difference, you think?
- [18:37]
A
No. Frankly, I'm not even quite sure why they brought him here. Like, what was the upside from the beginning because they said in their statement before the race that he's the co leader, but then they say that and it doesn't seem like he agreed with that because then he sat up on the first time it finished and said, well, I was never going to compete for the GC here.
- [18:56]
C
It's like, well, now all of them, you know, when we going back then, knowing what we know now, now it's kind of more clear. We said this in another podcast, right. That the whole Vuelta team, plus the young riders that went to Tour de la Veneer were on an altitude camp.
- [19:13]
A
Yeah.
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C
In Andorra and I USO was at home. So he was already doing his own thing.
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A
Yeah. Which tells you probably some agreement was made before the race.
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C
Yeah, yeah, for sure, for sure. Now the agreement was made before the race, but I think they brought him for two reasons. First, when finally Pogachar decided to not do the Vuelta because I think initially it was on his program and then. And then secondly, they brought him because they said, okay, you, you come to the Vuelta and, and you are at the service of the team all the time in exchange for us, you know, agreeing for your way out of the team, which then you saw, didn't. Didn't really do by. By sitting up. I think the sitting up part is the drop that, that really, you know, what is it? The, the straw that broke. Whatever.
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A
Yeah, the straw that broke the camel's back.
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C
Yeah, yeah, exactly. Yeah.
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A
That was pretty egregious. I would say that was one of the more aggressive, passive aggressive, maybe just aggressive aggressive moves I've ever seen from a disgruntled writer on a team just sitting up on the sprinters.
- [20:19]
C
There's been a Lot more than. There's been a lot worse than that.
- [20:21]
A
Well, I mean, I guess Lopez getting in the car and going home would be number one. That was pretty intense. What is with the Vuelta? Why does this always come out at the Vuelta? Just because end of the year, the heat's driving people insane. We don't know.
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C
Yeah, I don't know.
- [20:38]
A
But anything else you learn from the summit finish today? I think we were. I don't think this was on the show. This is just a private conversation. But we're impressed with Pitcock. Maybe have some questions about Pitcock, but I would say he's climbing well and I. There's harder climbs to come. Like I think we've seen who's the best climbers here. I, I don't know if Pitcock's gonna fade away.
- [21:02]
C
He'll probably.
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A
I think he'll probably finish on the podium.
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C
I think. I think Pitcock's performance today is. It's a confirmation of mean. He. The first time, the first apple finish, he was good, really good. This is a confirmation. Okay. It is not. Those two climbs that we had now, they're not the hardest climbs. Right. We went over all the stages left. There's still a few. I mean, there's at least three stages with a mountain top finish which are incredibly hard, much harder than what we have seen now. You know, the Angiru, you have the Alto Farapona and then you have the Bola del Mundo here in Madrid. Those three, at least. And then there's one or two others that are equally hard or more hard than today. But it is definitely starting to look really good for Tom Pidcock, I would say. I mean, I don't know. I think he can be on the podium. It's still long. You know, we haven't seen Tom Pidcock perform over three weeks yet in his career, you know, for gc. But he looks, he looks on, he looks on. Good form. I mean, I was impressed by. I mean, I don't know if you saw that. There's. There was two attacks of Almeida, I think two times Vinga, but the second time, I don't know if you saw that, Spencer, how Pitcock took the interior, like in the. In. I mean, it's not the gutter, but it was like concrete a lot harder than on the asphalt. And he followed quite easily. I, I'm gonna, I'm gonna guess he's not agree. He's not gonna agree it didn't feel easy, probably, but it looked like he was responding quite comfortably. So when Everybody else was on the limit. So now if Pitcock rides conservatively and stays within himself, I think he can be on the podium.
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A
That would be.
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C
I definitely a lot better than I would have predicted before this welter.
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A
Way better. I mean, this is hugely impressive what he's doing. I would also say, yeah, the climbs might be harder, but the flip side of that is if Phil Skull, Julia Ciccone, Jai Henley are having a hard time keeping contact on these climbs. Well, they, I don't think they're going to be better on the harder climbs.
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C
Yeah.
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A
So they might.
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C
Yeah. And as you, as you say, Spencer, I think you remarked that at the beginning of the Vuelta that Pidcock looks extremely skinny. So he's obviously, I mean, the proof is there he's climbing very well. Yeah.
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A
And he has a. I don't know, he's a funny character. You don't, you don't see characters like him that much in pro cycling. Like you. He really is like, comes across as a big personality in post race interviews and kind of seems like someone like, if he's interested, he's very, very good. But if his interest wanes, he can, you know, he's not hitting, you know, someone like Jonas feels like the guys, you send them anywhere and he's like, can just apply the same level of interest and effort all the time where a lot of people aren't like that and Pitcock feels interested, I think he'll want to see this through. I have to say, I'm just, I'm very impressed. I'm. I was a little disappointed Riccatello didn't take any time on Pilizzari today, but he does look like he's maybe the best climber. This is kind of a funny Grand Tour as well. Like, there's not many grand Tours where someone like Matthew Riccatello might, it might, he might be able to beat Mateo Jorgensen. Like, this is potentially the worst grand tour you could ever come up with. Mateo Jorgensen's for GC aspirations.
- [24:33]
C
I mean, he's, he looks in good shape. I mean, he's up there with the four, five, six best riders. Matteo, Matthew Riccatello also, I mean, I think it was, it was nice to see today that when there was a selection, he was the fifth best rider there. Belizari, who's in white now, had to let go. He came back. But I think, I mean, I've said it already twice and I'm gonna repeat it. I think Riccatello is the favorite for the white jersey versus Belizari. I briefly did a check before we. Before we started the podcast, Spencer, and you know, with the steep climbs we still have is 66 kilos for Pelizari and it's 55 kilos for Ricky, though. That's 11 kilos difference on those steep climbs, man. That's. That's a lot. It's a lot, a lot, a lot.
- [25:27]
A
Yeah. It's the worst possible parkours.
- [25:30]
C
Obviously, the time travel is going to be an issue, but. But yeah, I mean, those steep climbs, man, I think. Plus it's also. It's the first. Is it the first. It's the first Grand Tour for the Catello. No. He didn't do the Giro. No. Or did he?
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A
I don't think he did. No.
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C
No, I think he was. Berlizari was really good at the Giro.
- [25:52]
A
I thought he did. I think I tipped him to potentially win.
- [25:55]
C
I think. I think he finished fifth in the gym.
- [25:58]
A
He was sixth overall. Sixth was Caruso. Holy smokes.
- [26:03]
C
Yeah.
- [26:04]
A
Yeah, that guy is impressive. But what's the deal? Why are these GC sprinters so sprinting in? We kept talking about the Tour. We didn't fully understand it. There's no time bonuses and they're sprinting like all out at the end of these stages.
- [26:17]
C
I guess it's just to avoid losing time in case somebody just. I don't know. I don't know. I mean, I mean, obviously the climbs we've seen now, I mean, it's basically a mini bunch print, right between the. Between the 10, 15 best climbers.
- [26:35]
A
Yeah.
- [26:38]
C
Yeah. I don't know. I. I mean, modern cycling.
- [26:41]
A
And then we got a shout out. Archie Ryan, 23 years old. I did not expect a lot from him at this beginning of this race. He gets fourth today. Third day in the breakaway, I believe. Really? To get in the breakaway today. I mean, that was an unbelievably hard start. Yeah, yeah, that.
- [26:59]
C
That.
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A
That's impressive. Like, that is not easy to do. So super encouraging from him. Movar, do you think they're disappointed? Second and third, probably not what they wanted.
- [27:08]
C
Obviously.
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A
This is.
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C
This is the. The area of. This. Of the sponsor of movistar headquarters is in that area. So. So. Yeah, yeah. Also, Spencer, we said. We said before, you know, four stage wins. Four stage wins for UAE. Out of 10 stages, but 77 wins this season already. Yeah, for UAE. That's crazy. I mean, it's. I think it's like. It's almost double, right? The. The second team. The second team is probably in the 40s somewhere.
- [27:36]
A
I think it's 43 little track. Yeah.
- [27:39]
C
So. And so they've said publicly, they said publicly that they're going for the record, which is 85 wins in 2009 by Team Columbia HTC. I remember, I remember they won all the time, but yeah, 77. So there's still eight wins down.
- [28:01]
A
That might be the answer to our question. Johan, why is, are you so here? Because they want that record, you know.
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C
Okay, well, maybe so maybe they do let him go in another breakaway.
- [28:12]
A
Yeah, I wouldn't be shocked.
- [28:13]
C
Why not?
- [28:13]
A
I mean, if they, if they're serious about it, they need, they need a couple stage wins because there's not, you know, I guess they could win five or six races like at those one day races in Italy maybe.
- [28:25]
C
Well, they, they can win Lombardy, they can win the worlds, they can win.
- [28:29]
A
Canada, this world for the team. I guess technically. I guess it probably does.
- [28:34]
C
I think so. Yeah.
- [28:36]
A
Yeah.
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C
That seems a little. It does, it does.
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A
That's a little.
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C
And then National Nationals count.
- [28:43]
A
Yeah.
- [28:44]
C
Yeah.
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A
All right, well, we don't have to. They'll probably get it, I guess, now that I think about it. But I do wonder if that's played into their decision to keep Ayuso here.
- [28:54]
C
And also, I mean that, that now, I mean, no, probably not one of the reasons why he came, but it's, I mean, listen, it would be a nice benefit if, you know, you let him go in another. And actually for Ayuso it would be amazing. Amazing statement also like saying, okay, hey guys, listen, you're giving me all this, but in this, in the meantime, I'm winning another stage. How about that?
- [29:16]
A
Well, and I assume his contract's not signed, right? It's like still being worked on, man.
- [29:23]
C
If there's, if there's a buyout involved, his contract is signed. I mean, obviously, I mean, and, and it winning a stage for you. So it's not going to change anything in his contract. It's not. I mean, yeah, he's at the level that he's expected to win multiple stages.
- [29:39]
A
You know, I would say. We thought you talked about Movistar. I didn't respond to that. I, I do think it would be intriguing if you're Spanish and you can go be the man at Movistar. And Movistar could be on the up, but. And if you were Grand Tour, if you have Grand Tour aspirations, you just look, you look at the list of teams that win Grand Tours, it's the same teams. I mean, part of that too is like I would just be focusing almost solely on Their nutrition department.
- [30:05]
C
Because Turtle Track hasn't won any Grand Tours.
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A
They have not. But. But Red Bull had neither. And then they signed Primo's Roglic and they won the vault last year, so.
- [30:15]
C
Yeah, but they have. They had won the Giro with Jay Vine, I guess.
- [30:19]
A
Yeah.
- [30:20]
C
Jay Hindley. Sorry, Jay.
- [30:21]
A
Jay Hindley, not Jay Vine. We're getting that. The spoilers for next year's hero. But yeah, I. It's so like, nutrition is like. Is so key. Like, that's like all I would be paying attention to if I was trying to go to a new.
- [30:33]
C
It's not the only thing, but it's, it's, it's.
- [30:36]
A
But there I. You notice though, like, maybe. Maybe it's not as big of a deal with the new feed zones, but last year at the Tour, like, it was visibly different how many more vans Visma had than other teams. And you're just getting like constant feeds from the side of the road and like Cous is starving it out, you know, while Visma's getting all this food.
- [30:57]
C
Like, they've changed that. This. They've changed this. No, no.
- [31:00]
A
I guess, yeah, they want, like, they. They want you to take food in feed zones. Because if I can afford a bunch of buses and people or vans and people, that's not fair, I guess. But, yeah, you do notice. I would say that's the biggest thing you notice between teams is.
- [31:17]
C
I've wondered. You know, I was. When I was in Belgium, I rode a few times with Dirk. With Dirk the Mole, you know, so we had a lot of time to talk. And he's still. He's still a director. He's in Lotto for the moment. And I actually asked him about this, about these feed zones, and I said, so. And he said, you know, yeah, they've changed it. I don't. I don't. I mean, I didn't get the details, but so I said the question. So you're saying that because in order to give a feed or a bottle to a rider, you have to have a UCI license and you have to be identifiable as with the team jersey. So basically, if you have a family member standing on the side of the road, you can't take a bottle? That's my question.
- [32:00]
A
Well, I guess not. I've definitely seen it happen at the Tour. There was definitely riders taking nutrition at the top of climbs, like outside of the feed zones. Yeah. And I would probably think that's worth it. It. Maybe they won't catch you, but anything else on this stage before we move on to our predictions.
- [32:17]
C
Well, I mean, you know, Thorson train finally out of red. I think it was. I mean, he. There was a possibility he could hang on today, but he would have. He would need a really good day. He had an okay day. I mean, he didn't completely blow up, but. So Jonas is. I mean, I think Jonas is in red now and until Madrid. Right. I mean, he's not gonna. He's not gonna lose it anymore now.
- [32:41]
A
Probably.
- [32:42]
C
Yes.
- [32:43]
A
But, yeah, it is worth noting. Jonas is very good tomorrow. We'll. We'll factor into that, probably. But Amanda's 38 seconds back. Pitcock's 58 seconds back. It's not like he's not, like, put the nail in the coffin yet. This isn't an overwhelmingly large. This isn't a pagachar post oticom situation. Like.
- [33:03]
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Then. Then you could also ask the question, has Jonas already really tried 100%.
- [33:11]
A
You know, I'm gonna get spit coming down his face on stage. What was that? Stage nine. So it looked like he was trying pretty hard.
- [33:19]
C
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay.
- [33:21]
A
Not a great climb for him, though. There are better climbs coming up where he could turn the screw. Yeah. Has he not. I'd love that take. Has he not even tried yet? That would be so devastating if you're in this race.
- [33:36]
C
And on the. On the climb, he. He. He attacked. He definitely tried. I mean, 100% that, you know, he gave it his all.
- [33:45]
A
I mean, he did hold them off for 10 kilometers, which.
- [33:48]
C
Yeah.
- [33:49]
A
Is not easy to do. Yeah.
- [33:51]
C
Mm.
- [33:53]
A
We'll see. I do think you're right. I do think he probably holds it till Madrid, as unfortunate as that is, for suspense, but he just kind of looks a level above the rest of the GC contenders here.
- [34:06]
C
Yeah. And, you know, also, what I've. What I've seen is that he looks really calm. He looks. I mean, I've seen. I've seen a view, you know, like, out of race interviews. You know, I saw something there with an interview with the Danish guy from. From Eurosport, Anders Milke, who's good friends with. With Mats Petersen. And so there was a little reunion. Mats Pedersen and Jonas and Michael Bjerg and Milke interviewing them, and they were joking around, and he looked really relaxed, you know, joking and, you know, definitely not the stress level. Not even close to what's happening at the Tour de France. He seems to be enjoying being at the race, which is super important.
- [34:50]
A
There's no tattoo that would put you in the mood right there.
- [34:53]
C
Well, there's not. There's not the same media circus. There's not the same. I mean, like at the two at the Tour, it's like you win. It's like you're over, you know, like invaded with mics and people all over you. This is not the case, you know, and you're not invaded by people, by spectators and not by the media.
- [35:11]
A
You're definitely not invaded by spectators.
- [35:14]
C
It's.
- [35:15]
A
It's seems to be the only people on the roadside are people with Palestinian flags at this point, that is.
- [35:22]
C
And people from the organization.
- [35:24]
A
Yeah, I mean, we should say it's a. These are not like easy places to get to.
- [35:28]
C
No, that's.
- [35:29]
A
They are great for bike racing on television. It's. I would probably not be cruising up.
- [35:33]
C
From plus also, Spencer, listen, I mean, you know, we cannot compare the two. I mean, in the Tour, you know, half of the people are on holiday. You know, people have started work, school have started again, you know, so everybody's back active into their daily routines. You know, that's. It's obviously a huge difference.
- [35:52]
A
It's actually talking like a businessman about this who's like, why doesn't the Tour should move? It doesn't make sense. It should be at the end of the year. But it's like. Well, a. The climbs need to be free of snow. So if you want to go to the high Alps, July's good option. And holidays like they are, it's such an advantage to line up with like key holiday season, that is.
- [36:13]
C
Yeah, yeah. That's why the Tour. That's why the Tour will always be the big dominator. It's. You know, it's in the summer, everybody's on holiday, you know, listen, great scenery. The great country, dude. Yeah. To shoot. Shoot footage.
- [36:29]
A
So yeah, shout out France. It is a great country. But. Let's take a quick commercial break. France. This episode brought to you by France. And then we'll predict stage 11. The move is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Fiscally responsible financial geniuses, monetary magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations. All right, Johan. Stage 11. 100 is a tough stage. 157 kilometers. So not that long. In the bass country. Bilbao to Bilbao. It looks like a stage straight from the Tour Itzulia, the Tour of the Basque country. It has 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7 categorized climbs, all Cat 3 or 2, the final climb and this is like San Sebastian, the final climb. 2k long 9.2% average. Even steeper in the last 2/3 though like all over 11 12% and then it descends down for the finish. How do you. I'll list off the favorites and then we'll get your thoughts on how this plays out. Jonas Vinegard's the favorite. Plus 400. Tom Pitcock plus 700 Juani USO plus 1000 Julia Chacone plus 1400 Joelameda plus 2000 Mark Solaire plus 2000 David. Go to plus 2200. It goes on and on. We'll comment. We need to. If you want to bet and want to understand this more, go to nxtbets.com BET outcomes. It will tell you where to bet wherever you live and the best prices and sign up bonuses on each sportsbook. But Johan, how does this play out and who's who wins?
- [38:12]
C
Yeah, difficult stage, you know, all these climbs, you know, little detail. The Alto de Pique or I'm gonna guess it's Pique. It's P I K E so you would say pike, but I think it's a Bast name and the one before. So the last two climbs are identical to the stage one in the Tour de France 2023 when it was starting finish in Bilbao and the Yates brothers went together to the finish. If you remember, there was this super steep climb at the end where actually Jonas and Tadei went away. If I remember correctly, when it would be Victor Lafay who was with them. French guy Lafay. And yeah, you're right. Yeah. And then the Yates brothers came back and they attacked over the top. So it's, so it's, I remember it's extremely steep, very steep I think because I mean there's 3,000 meters of elevation in 158 kilometers. It's not a mountain stage but it's extremely hard because it's up and down, up and down. I'm going to go for Johannes Vinegar guard. Straight, straight. I mean, I think it's going to be difficult for a breakaway to make it especially also because, because of the, the, the way this course is. I mean the, the last few climbs in the Basque country there's, there's narrow road. Positioning is super important so nerves in the peloton. I think a breakaway won't make it that far. And I think on that last climb Jonas rides away. It's deep enough and I think Jonas comes in solo. He's my pick for the win.
- [40:04]
A
Yeah, I could definitely See that happening. Interestingly, this could be one of the best GC stages of the race because the climbs aren't so hard as to be disqualifying. They're now I kind of worry about some of these big climbs later on that it's going to be the top guys riding five seconds apart, like as hard as they can go at a single speed. There's no dynamism. This is a super dynamic stage. Like the way you race, the way you position really important, you know, if you get over the climb four seconds in front of someone, that could blow open on the descent and then the following climb. Jonas is the strongest rider. Makes sense he would win this race. I'm going to go though, and I can't believe I'm doing this. Tom Pidcock plus 800. This is a good. If Jonas doesn't win this stage, it's because Pitcock outsprints him at the end or drops him on one of these descents because that guy is an unbelievable descender. So I'm going Pitcock.
- [40:57]
C
Okay, good one. Good one. I can see that. I can see that happening. My wild card is Jaw Almeida for the same reason. Probably not being able to follow Jonas coming back. And then a late. A late surge or something. If it's the same finish, which I think it is, it's kind of uphill also falls flat 2 and a half, 3%. I remember the Yates brothers came in that together. Then one dropped the other. I actually don't remember which one. Was it Adam who won in front of Simon. Simon or the other way around? I think it was Adam who won. Yeah.
- [41:33]
A
This is actually a mind melter. It was Adam winning over Simon.
- [41:37]
C
Yeah. Yeah.
- [41:37]
A
Twin on. Twin violence.
- [41:40]
C
Yeah. Adam on UAE and Simon on Decor.
- [41:44]
A
Is it. Maybe he's got nothing left. I like that pick what, by the way, Joao made a one similar stages in the Basque country to this. You would you think you think of as a bad descender, bad bike handler, but he has actually gotten very good at stages like this. Johan, is it crazy to think Javier Romo wins from the breakaway? Yeah, I think too much of a triathlete. He can't.
- [42:09]
C
Can't navigate for some reason. I mean, I don't know. For some reason. I mean, today he was good. Today he was good. If you're very good, actually. But I haven't seen Javier Romo good since Tour Down Under.
- [42:22]
A
Yeah, he's had a bit of a cold period.
- [42:24]
C
Tour down under. He was amazing. I think he did another stage race where he was still Pretty good. And then kind of haven't seen him in any results that I was expecting him to see. So, I mean, today obviously was the proof that his, his shape must be coming back. But I think it's difficult for a breakaway to make it with those last few climbs. The effort you have and the energy you have to spend to stay up front. And then these last few climbs are steep. Yeah, you can lose a lot of time there. And the peloton usually is going very fast for positioning into those climbs at the end, so that you're going to lose a lot of time there.
- [43:07]
A
Well, I'm gonna go Julio Ciccone, I believe he's plus 1400. I think I've picked Chacone like five times this tour. This Welton, he's not one. But did he. He won San Sebastian. Am I right thinking that?
- [43:21]
C
Yeah.
- [43:21]
A
And this is not San Sebastian, but it's similar terrain. Similar. Yeah, I'm gonna go Chicone.
- [43:28]
C
Yeah. I mean, I think you could easily compare the last climb in San Sebastian where he dropped Del Toro. I think. Yeah, he dropped Del Toro and. And Jan. Kristen, two UE riders. It's very similar to tomorrow's last climb.
- [43:46]
A
Yeah. And so I'm gonna go him. You're going out. Maida, anything else on this stage before we go?
- [43:53]
C
Nope, that's it.
- [43:54]
A
And Omada's+2000, that's pretty interesting. Well, we'll see. And then we'll be back tomorrow to talk about the stage and preview the next one.
- [44:03]
C
Okay, Spencer, thanks.
- [44:05]
A
All right, thanks.
- [44:12]
B
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