THEMOVE+ – Does Tadej Pogačar Even Need Modern Tech to Win the Tour?

Host: Lance Armstrong | Guests: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel

Date: November 7, 2025

Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into whether Tadej Pogačar, cycling’s superstar, could win the Tour de France on older equipment, exploring how cycling technology (especially bikes and tires) has evolved—and how that affects performance at the highest level. Hosts Lance Armstrong, Johan Bruyneel, and Spencer Martin also unpack Pogačar’s recent Tour win (and an under-the-radar knee injury), and discuss broader issues such as the economics of pro cycling and the future sustainability of the sport.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Pogačar’s 2025 Tour de France: Injury and Dominance

• Context: Pogačar wins his fourth Tour, seemingly without being threatened, but it’s later revealed he raced the final week with a knee injury from a crash.
• Discussion:
  • Pogačar and his team kept the injury quiet during the race, only recently disclosing it via interviews (notably Tim Wellens in Belgian media).
  • Hosts reflect on how this changes perceptions of Pogačar’s more conservative, less animated ride in week three.
  • Johan Bruyneel:

    “He is human. He can also be fragile. That can have an impact on, you know, the next Tours if he gets sick or injured. On the other hand … if you can't even beat him when he's injured, what are you going to do when he is not injured?” [07:31]

  • Memorable Point: Even with an injury, Pogačar was never in trouble when responding to attacks.

2. Old Bikes vs. Modern Tech: Would Pogačar Still Win?

• Catalyst: A discussion from the Luke Rowe & Geraint Thomas podcast, debating if Pogačar could win the Tour on a bike from five or ten years ago.
• Bike Evolution:
  • Shift from prioritizing lightness to prioritizing aerodynamics, especially once aero bikes can be made near the 6.8kg weight limit.
  • The biggest advance? Tires and wheels.
• Johan Bruyneel:

  “A lot has changed. The aero bikes, the tires, the wheels… I think the tires and the wheels is the biggest one.” [00:01], [19:59]

  • Modern tubeless tires are not just more comfortable but significantly faster (up to 20 watts lower rolling resistance vs. old tubulars).
  • Modern gearing also allows for easier high-cadence climbing, which was unavailable on 2015 hardware.
• Conclusion:
  • Spencer Martin: “That's wild that it can make that much of a difference… maybe he wins a hill climb, but day after day, you're putting out so much more effort than everybody else.” [24:45]
  • Shared agreement: Pogačar probably could not win the current Tour de France on a bike from a decade ago, given the cumulative performance disadvantage.

3. Personal Anecdotes About Cycling’s Changing Wisdom & Tech

• Johan: Reminisces on outdated practices, like not being allowed to shower between stages to avoid “bloating” (a superstition from his first pro years).

  “I did not take a shower. I did. [laughs] …This is how bad information can spread and stick.” [12:33]

• The Psychology of Tire Choice:
  • Some top pros (e.g., the Schleck brothers, Cancellara) insisted on riding ludicrously narrow tires (21mm) as recently as 2012, even though wider was already proven safer and faster.

4. Pro Cycling’s Financial Sustainability & Team Economics

• Recent News: Jayco-AlUla’s last-minute scramble for their UCI deposit spotlights economic fragility.
• Systemic Issues:
  • Cycling teams are heavily dependent on external sponsorship. No revenue is shared with the teams/riders from the sport’s own profits—unlike F1 or American sports.
  • Is charging spectators a solution? Johan:

    "A sport cannot survive if the main players are exclusively depending on external sponsorship. There is nothing in this sport for the riders and the teams that is generated by the sport.” [33:07]

  • Cyclocross is cited as a more sustainable model (fans pay, riders receive appearance fees). Road racing lacks any analogous, direct revenue-sharing system.
  • Armstrong ponders asset value:

    “The problem with cycling is there's nothing to sell… Think about F1—what does an F1 team own? … they own like a franchise spot in the sport that gives them access to revenues from that sport. So you might have to start thinking about that for cycling.” [35:28]

5. Comparing Pogačar’s Dominance to Other Stars

• Collected Stats:
  • Over the last two years, combining grand tours, monuments, and other victories, Pogačar matches or outstrips the combined haul of superstars Van der Poel, Roglič, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel.
  • “That is unbelievable… Crazy how good he is.” (Armstrong & Johan, [37:50])

6. Listener Q&A: The Three Grand Tours Challenge

• Question: Could Pogačar attempt to win the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta in one season?
  • Johan: Purely physically, Pogačar is capable, but logistically and in terms of team depth, it’s nearly impossible—especially while meeting sponsor/media obligations and keeping teammates motivated.

  • “He’s able to do it, but the more important question is: can you have a strong team around him [for all three]?... I think it’s possible, but logistically, it’s not easy.” [38:12]

  • Other teams' morale and the burden on key domestiques are also major obstacles.

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bruyneel, on the injury revelation:

  “It’s a miracle if you never have any kind of injury in the Tour.” [05:38]

• Spencer, on modern tires:

  “These modern tubeless tires are 20% faster… 20 fewer watts versus the tubulars, which, you know, 10 years ago, that’s what everyone would have been riding.” [23:37]

• Johan, on outdated pro cycling beliefs:

  “Back then [1987]… My director told me not to shower between stages or I’d get bloated. And I believed him!” [12:33]

• Spencer, on the massive divide in tech:

  "If you describe these tires these guys are on and then how much faster they're going now than then, it shows you the penalty everybody was taking with those small tires." [30:25]

Important Timelines

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |:---|:---| | 03:12 | Pogačar’s strange Tour and the revelation of his knee injury | | 07:31 | Pogačar’s resilience; no one could touch him, even injured | | 14:00 | Could Pogačar win on a bike from 10 years ago? | | 19:59 | The “biggest” change in tech: wheels and tires | | 23:37 | Modern tires vs. old tubulars—a 20 watt difference | | 25:10 | Advances in gearing and their impact | | 30:25 | Tire size evolution: 21mm to 30-32mm, the performance leap | | 33:07 | Cycling’s unsustainable economic model—dependence on sponsorship | | 35:28 | No asset value for cycling teams (unlike F1, US sports) | | 37:50 | Pogačar’s dominance compared to the rest of the peloton | | 38:12 | Could he win all three Grand Tours in a single year? | | 40:41 | Team depth and logistics are the true limiting factor |

Episode Takeaway

The conversation concludes that technology in pro cycling—especially the massive gains from modern tires, wheels, and aerodynamics—makes a profound difference. Even the most talented rider of our era (Pogačar) would likely struggle to win on a decade-old bike against modern equipment. At the same time, the sport is overdue for a reckoning on its financial model, needing new ways to distribute revenue and reward the stars and teams that carry its global appeal.

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