Does Tadej Pogačar Even Need Modern Tech to Win the Tour? | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE+ – Does Tadej Pogačar Even Need Modern Tech to Win the Tour?

Host: Lance Armstrong | Guests: Spencer Martin, Johan Bruyneel

Date: November 7, 2025

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Episode Overview

This episode dives deep into whether Tadej Pogačar, cycling’s superstar, could win the Tour de France on older equipment, exploring how cycling technology (especially bikes and tires) has evolved—and how that affects performance at the highest level. Hosts Lance Armstrong, Johan Bruyneel, and Spencer Martin also unpack Pogačar’s recent Tour win (and an under-the-radar knee injury), and discuss broader issues such as the economics of pro cycling and the future sustainability of the sport.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Pogačar’s 2025 Tour de France: Injury and Dominance

• Context: Pogačar wins his fourth Tour, seemingly without being threatened, but it’s later revealed he raced the final week with a knee injury from a crash.
• Discussion:
  • Pogačar and his team kept the injury quiet during the race, only recently disclosing it via interviews (notably Tim Wellens in Belgian media).
  • Hosts reflect on how this changes perceptions of Pogačar’s more conservative, less animated ride in week three.
  • Johan Bruyneel:

    “He is human. He can also be fragile. That can have an impact on, you know, the next Tours if he gets sick or injured. On the other hand … if you can't even beat him when he's injured, what are you going to do when he is not injured?” [07:31]

  • Memorable Point: Even with an injury, Pogačar was never in trouble when responding to attacks.

2. Old Bikes vs. Modern Tech: Would Pogačar Still Win?

• Catalyst: A discussion from the Luke Rowe & Geraint Thomas podcast, debating if Pogačar could win the Tour on a bike from five or ten years ago.
• Bike Evolution:
  • Shift from prioritizing lightness to prioritizing aerodynamics, especially once aero bikes can be made near the 6.8kg weight limit.
  • The biggest advance? Tires and wheels.
• Johan Bruyneel:

  “A lot has changed. The aero bikes, the tires, the wheels… I think the tires and the wheels is the biggest one.” [00:01], [19:59]

  • Modern tubeless tires are not just more comfortable but significantly faster (up to 20 watts lower rolling resistance vs. old tubulars).
  • Modern gearing also allows for easier high-cadence climbing, which was unavailable on 2015 hardware.
• Conclusion:
  • Spencer Martin: “That's wild that it can make that much of a difference… maybe he wins a hill climb, but day after day, you're putting out so much more effort than everybody else.” [24:45]
  • Shared agreement: Pogačar probably could not win the current Tour de France on a bike from a decade ago, given the cumulative performance disadvantage.

3. Personal Anecdotes About Cycling’s Changing Wisdom & Tech

• Johan: Reminisces on outdated practices, like not being allowed to shower between stages to avoid “bloating” (a superstition from his first pro years).

  “I did not take a shower. I did. [laughs] …This is how bad information can spread and stick.” [12:33]

• The Psychology of Tire Choice:
  • Some top pros (e.g., the Schleck brothers, Cancellara) insisted on riding ludicrously narrow tires (21mm) as recently as 2012, even though wider was already proven safer and faster.

4. Pro Cycling’s Financial Sustainability & Team Economics

• Recent News: Jayco-AlUla’s last-minute scramble for their UCI deposit spotlights economic fragility.
• Systemic Issues:
  • Cycling teams are heavily dependent on external sponsorship. No revenue is shared with the teams/riders from the sport’s own profits—unlike F1 or American sports.
  • Is charging spectators a solution? Johan:

    "A sport cannot survive if the main players are exclusively depending on external sponsorship. There is nothing in this sport for the riders and the teams that is generated by the sport.” [33:07]

  • Cyclocross is cited as a more sustainable model (fans pay, riders receive appearance fees). Road racing lacks any analogous, direct revenue-sharing system.
  • Armstrong ponders asset value:

    “The problem with cycling is there's nothing to sell… Think about F1—what does an F1 team own? … they own like a franchise spot in the sport that gives them access to revenues from that sport. So you might have to start thinking about that for cycling.” [35:28]

5. Comparing Pogačar’s Dominance to Other Stars

• Collected Stats:
  • Over the last two years, combining grand tours, monuments, and other victories, Pogačar matches or outstrips the combined haul of superstars Van der Poel, Roglič, Vingegaard, and Evenepoel.
  • “That is unbelievable… Crazy how good he is.” (Armstrong & Johan, [37:50])

6. Listener Q&A: The Three Grand Tours Challenge

• Question: Could Pogačar attempt to win the Giro, Tour, and Vuelta in one season?
  • Johan: Purely physically, Pogačar is capable, but logistically and in terms of team depth, it’s nearly impossible—especially while meeting sponsor/media obligations and keeping teammates motivated.

  • “He’s able to do it, but the more important question is: can you have a strong team around him [for all three]?... I think it’s possible, but logistically, it’s not easy.” [38:12]

  • Other teams' morale and the burden on key domestiques are also major obstacles.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Bruyneel, on the injury revelation:

  “It’s a miracle if you never have any kind of injury in the Tour.” [05:38]

• Spencer, on modern tires:

  “These modern tubeless tires are 20% faster… 20 fewer watts versus the tubulars, which, you know, 10 years ago, that’s what everyone would have been riding.” [23:37]

• Johan, on outdated pro cycling beliefs:

  “Back then [1987]… My director told me not to shower between stages or I’d get bloated. And I believed him!” [12:33]

• Spencer, on the massive divide in tech:

  "If you describe these tires these guys are on and then how much faster they're going now than then, it shows you the penalty everybody was taking with those small tires." [30:25]

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Important Timelines

| Timestamp | Topic/Segment | |:---|:---| | 03:12 | Pogačar’s strange Tour and the revelation of his knee injury | | 07:31 | Pogačar’s resilience; no one could touch him, even injured | | 14:00 | Could Pogačar win on a bike from 10 years ago? | | 19:59 | The “biggest” change in tech: wheels and tires | | 23:37 | Modern tires vs. old tubulars—a 20 watt difference | | 25:10 | Advances in gearing and their impact | | 30:25 | Tire size evolution: 21mm to 30-32mm, the performance leap | | 33:07 | Cycling’s unsustainable economic model—dependence on sponsorship | | 35:28 | No asset value for cycling teams (unlike F1, US sports) | | 37:50 | Pogačar’s dominance compared to the rest of the peloton | | 38:12 | Could he win all three Grand Tours in a single year? | | 40:41 | Team depth and logistics are the true limiting factor |

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Episode Takeaway

The conversation concludes that technology in pro cycling—especially the massive gains from modern tires, wheels, and aerodynamics—makes a profound difference. Even the most talented rider of our era (Pogačar) would likely struggle to win on a decade-old bike against modern equipment. At the same time, the sport is overdue for a reckoning on its financial model, needing new ways to distribute revenue and reward the stars and teams that carry its global appeal.

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For in-depth analysis and exclusive listener questions, subscribe to THEMOVE+ for the full weekly conversation.

Transcript

[A]

I think a lot has changed. The aero bikes, the tires, the wheels.

[B]

I think is the biggest one. I think it's the tires and the wheels.

[A]

Oh. I mean, I don't think you need to be a rocket scientist, Spencer, to know that that's the most component, the most important component of every single bike. Right. It's the one where the wheels are right. It's what touches the ground first and that's what puts you in motion.

[B]

Everybody, welcome back to the Move Pl Spence. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel for our usual weekly show. We're going to be covering a few of the news topics that have been coming out. Speculate on if Tadepagacha could win the Tour de France on a bike from just a few years ago or even from back in Johan's management days. But. And then we'll get into questions from.

[C]

Listeners and if you're a premium listener.

[B]

You can ask us questions live. And we'll get to those first before we get to the ones sent to Infoado team.

[C]

But first, Johan, let's hear from today's sponsor.

[B]

And then we'll get right into the episode.

[C]

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[B]

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[B]

All right, first thing I want to ask you about, Johan, is I trust you've been well.

[C]

Is this true?

[A]

Very good. Right.

[B]

You're riding, getting those miles in, getting the K's in.

[A]

I am getting closer again, Spencer. I checked this morning. The gap is getting closer. I'm. I think I'm 100 kilometers behind now.

[B]

Oh, my.

[A]

So. So, yeah, I mean, you're lucky. Just started raining here in Madrid, so that might complicate things for me a bit. So, yeah, check the weather report.

[B]

We're going to have to do a live stream of the final day of the year just on us. It's going to come down to the wire. But speaking of coming down to the wire, speaking of not coming down to the wire, the Tour de France 2025. Tata Picachar wins. Cruises to victory through the final week. But if we cast our minds back, a lot of consternation, let's say, about what is wrong with Pagachar.

[C]

Is he sad?

[B]

Is he like an orca in captivity? What is going on? He's not winning stages. He was not racing aggressively.

[C]

I thought he was racing pretty smart.

[B]

Pretty conservatively, got the job done, wins his fourth career Tour with the massive margin. No reason to attack, but it comes out. Now he is saying him, him and the team around him that he had a knee injury in the final week of the Tour de France. And if you remember, he crashed on, what was that, stage 10 or 11. And you, the day before, he just destroyed everybody and won the race. But if you crash, you know, like that, you can often hit your knee in a way that will cause you problems a few days later or a week or two later. I would guess that's what happened. I feel like people just totally glossed.

[C]

Over the crash and don't mention that.

[B]

But what is going on with this? Is this Pagatjo just giving us context for that? I still. He did not look in any way beatable. He said he had a scan and that his continuation in the race was.

[C]

Maybe even at risk.

[B]

What do you make of this, this.

[C]

Not leak, but announcement?

[A]

Well, I think it's true. It's. I mean, he did say it in an interview, I think a few weeks ago in Slovenian media. But now Tim Wellens has come out also confirming that story and he gave an interview and he talked about it, that, yeah, there was a moment where he's you know, and I would. I would suspect that, you know, a leader like Pogacar in a team like uae, you know, initially, I think he probably kept it to himself and maybe just the medical staff to not worry your teammates, who have to basically empty themselves every single day to keep you safe and bring you where you have to be. But I do definitely give credibility to that story. And now looking afterwards, having this information, I think it kind of makes sense because the information is that it started at the moment or after the Montvatout. And I think that's probably the. The last time he has attacked, because the Alps were. The Alps were after the move on to. Right?

[B]

Yes.

[A]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, I think so.

[B]

The Alps are in the final week where he was.

[A]

Yeah, so he. He attacked a few times there.

[C]

Couldn't.

[A]

Couldn't shake Jonas. And I mean, listen, you know, he's human, you know, I mean, it's. It's. Something is gonna happen at some point, whether it's because of a crash or because of, you know, they're always on the limit. Your. Your body reacts and, you know, the little pains here and there are always there. It's, you know, it's a miracle if you never have any kind of injury. And so now looking at. Looking back on that and knowing this, it kind of explains a little bit of. You know, we saw him ride conservatively, but also his energy, his demeanor. You know, initially we said, yeah, you know, he's tired of all the questions and. Which is true. You know, you're there. It's always every day the same thing. You know, how do you feel? Why didn't you attack? You know, I mean, you get annoyed. But on top of that, if you have. I mean, listen, if we have a little tiny injury, little pain, you know, we are annoyed the whole day because it's there. It's a nagging little pain that's there, and it has an impact on your mood. I mean, at least I'm that way. I mean, if I have a little pain, I mean, my hip hurts when I walk up the stairs, and it keeps hurting, and I'm pissed off the whole day. You know, I'm not really enjoyable. And I think that explains a lot. So, yeah, I mean, listen, hats off on how he managed it, both publicly not speaking about it, and, you know, they said he was sick a little bit. Also. We had. I remember he said they said he was sick, but especially the way he defended his jersey. You know, never. Every time. I mean, he didn't have to attack. And any Attempt of an attack by Jonas. He was never in trouble. So you know, I would say on the one hand that, I mean the conclusion or what we take away from this is okay, you know, he is human. He is, he can also be fragile. That can have an impact on, you know, the next tours if, you know, if he gets sick or injured. On the other hand, the bad news is if you can't even beat him when he's injured, what are you going to do when he is not injured?

[B]

You're not going to beat them. So can't get any worse than that. It, it does show you that the race could have been over for him on stage 11. I mean it's that, that's how it happens. It's across of wheels in the final 5K. And yeah, it's over.

[A]

Well, I mean I, I, I remember seeing that crash, you know, where he, where he went down and then he hit the curb. The day before the first big mountain stage. I mean I was, my first reaction is, oh shit, this is bad. You know, I mean, I, if I would have been the team director and my leader has a crash the day before the first big appointment, I would say, wow, this is, you know, we're gonna be, we're gonna be holding on for dear life tomorrow. And you know, it was the opposite. But sometimes the consequences of a crash manifest themselves, you know, a few days later. And you know, we don't know if it's because of the crash or if it's because, you know, he had a little injury with David, managed to, you know, heal before the Tour and came back up. We don't know, you know, but, but I definitely think that the story is true and it explains now a lot better what we saw in the second part of the, of the Tour de France.

[B]

Yeah, why he only won four stages, Johan. I mean, what, what a disappointment. Four stages in the overall. I, I still think it's so funny that and just like what, what a disappointing tour. It's like the guy was still really good in the Alps. He just was following. Do you remember why he said he got sick still? I can't tell if he's joking. And this is a classic. If you're an American who spends a lot of time in Europe, one thing you notice because of the ice or something. Ice, not a lot of ac. And he said, oh, maybe the air conditioning got me sick. We still, they're getting the young generation, Johan. The young guys still think the AC makes you sick also.

[A]

Did you ever.

[B]

Is this an old wives tale? That Belgian directors don't let you have plants in your room because the plant is going to take oxygen from you.

[A]

I've never heard that one. It would not surprise me. It would not surprise me.

[B]

You could absolutely.

[A]

I remember, I don't know if I ever told this story, but, you know, I remember my first year professional was in 1987. You know, there was absolutely no knowledge, no Internet. You know, we had basically magazines and TV programs and then whatever people told you, right. And so I remember my first stage race I did was three days of the Pana. I was on a small Belgian team. And so basically back then, you know, you had these. My director was a very big champion in the past, Ferdinand Braca. He won the Tour of Spain. He was third in the Vuelta. He had our record, was a massive champion. And so first time with the professionals professional. I mean, we, I mean my, my team back then would not qualify even as a one of like a bad development team nowadays. But.

[B]

Oh, I've been on, I've been on some of those.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

So, so, you know, there was a double day, the last day. And so there was a race in the morning and then a time trial. And I, the year before I had won the, the, like the Grand Prix Eddie Mercs, which was the time which was equivalent to the Belgian Championships time trial in, in the under 23 category. And so I had, you know, my, my goal was to perform well in the time trial. So like, I remember I came off the bike in that morning stage and we had, we had no buses, you know, that we, we basically there was, there was like a, a sporting complex football field with, with, with showers. And then there would, there was like a restaurant next to it. And so I get off my bike, put the bike there, go to the showers. And the guy said, hey, where are you going? I said, I'm going to take a shower. He said, no, no, you can't take a shower. I said, what do you mean? He said, well, you know, you need to, you need to write perform this afternoon. So, you know, like the, the, the swan year is just going to clean your legs and you wipe you off with alcohol. You put on your, your tracksuit and you go to, you go to lunch. Because if you go to the shower, you know, you need to understand that right now your body is, you know, warmed up, your pores are open and the, the water's gonna go inside and you're gonna be blow bloated. And I believed it. I believe this. I believe this. And I did not take a shower. I did.

[B]

You know this is actually a great, yeah, it's like you how bad information can spread and stick.

[A]

But, but also, I mean this is what he had been told before, you know, and it had worked for him. So yeah, those were the days, man.

[B]

I definitely, I know I can, I can like picture perfectly the scent too of what everyone smells like when they have not showered. They've only been run, rubbed down and changed. Exactly. That's an incredible story. But let's take, let's take a quick break and then I'm going to ask you if, you know, if, if injury's not going to stop Pagachar is racing on an old bike going to stop, stop them. But we'll be right back. This episode is brought to you by Huell. My mornings have been busy with school drop offs and pickups. That's why I was late for this very show. And to make sure I'm getting everything I need to eat, I've been reaching for Huell's Black Edition High Protein on.

[C]

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It's like a carbonated can. It's delicious. I'm having it right now. Products today with 15 off your purchase for new customers with our exclusive code the [e-mail] the move that's h u e l.com themove link will be in show notes as well. All right, Johan, back to the episode. So Luke Rowe and Garrett Thomas were talking on their podcast. We're not going to name it. We don't want to give them free publicity. But I thought it was an interesting conversation. It was a question they got. We've resorted to stealing questions they've gotten on their show for content. That's how slow it is in pro cycling right now. But they get a question. Could Tade Pagat, chair, I believe it was, win the Tour de France on a bike from 10 years ago? Luke Row ratchet things up and said, I don't think he could win the Tour on A bike from five years ago, which is when Tada Picacho was winning the Tour on a rim brake colonago bike. Let's just start there. Do you think if he starts this 2025 Tour de France on his 2020 Col, does he still win the race? Yeah, yeah, I think so too. I think it's probably not that much slower. I mean, maybe the time trial bike.

[A]

Is, if I remember correctly, Spencer and when he was still on, I mean, I think Colnago and some of the riders on the team decided to keep rim brakes, but I think the majority of the teams, the riders were already on disc brakes then also.

[B]

Yeah, he was one of the last riders to go disc. The reason for that is the lateness of the bike. What's funny is. But what did we learn this year? So interesting. So how smart, how much smarter we are, Johan, than a year ago that you went and dug around like a real journalist, found out that UAE has now shifted from thinking lightness is important to. And also how much. Man, we spent two decades trying to get lighter bikes. Now that doesn't really matter at high speeds if you're going over 18k an hour.

[C]

The superior aerodynamics of their aero bike.

[B]

Actually makes you faster on climbs.

[A]

Well, yes, I mean.

[C]

Yes.

[A]

Yeah, you're kind of right. But I think to an extent, I mean, they made that decision when they knew that they could get the weight down to 7.1 kilos, which is basically, you know, you can only go to 6.8.

[B]

Yeah.

[A]

And, and now I think that the bike of Pcar, the bike that he used in the, in the time trial to pay good was 6.9 kilos. The, the, the aero bike because they took the. No handlebar tape, whatever, you know. But yeah, I mean, apparently that's, that's the, the knowledge they have now that from. From a certain moment, from above 18k an hour arrow does take the upper hand. Overweight if it's. Of course, if it's not too much. But yeah, I mean these, they get these bikes down now to, to even the aero bikes, they're getting them down to the limit. You know, I've seen, I mean, I've seen a few videos in the last few weeks about the UK national champion hill climb and the bikes. Yeah. Coming up there like 4.5 kilos or something. So you can actually, with the right components, you can. I mean, I know for example, in.

[C]

Uae.

[A]

Like the seat posts. I mean, I don't know if this new aero bike now, what's it called? The.

[B]

Yeah, the Y, man, it's like Y1.

[A]

Or something like that. I think so.

[B]

I never get it right.

[A]

Yeah, but, but you know, they gotcha. Especially Pugacha. But I think, you know, the majority of the riders, they actually, you know, they source light components. Like there's one, there's one component manufacturer from Spain actually. He does seat posts and stamps and they are using like from a real boutique manufacturer. There's a seat posts because they're just so much lighter. So, yeah, if you can get an aero bike down to the, the weight, which is super close to the limit, then of course you're going to use the aero bike. I think, I think one of the thoughts behind it is also how much you actually save energy. You save in between the climbs, you know, I mean, on the climbs, you know, but the leader, first of all, the leaders are mostly protected. So I think that's also a trade off, which sometimes it's maybe focused too much on Arrow, because if you're, if you're not aero, but you're protected all the time, doesn't really matter that much if you're in that, you know, vacuum of the peloton with three riders of your team around you. Does that really matter then if you are on aero bike or not on the flats?

[B]

Yeah, but what did we see at the end of the year? A lot. It'd be Pagacha going solo before the final climb. So he's by himself on the flats. And I guess you have to take that into account. Yeah, but let's ratchet this up. Okay. Five years ago, he's winning what, about 10 years ago? 2015. So that's Froome's Pinarello. Let's say he's writing that from 2015. Does he win the Tour?

[A]

Yeah, well, I mean, if, listen, if I'm nobody to say different than, than, than Garain Thomas and Luc Rowe, you know, because they are there in it. So they've seen the evolution themselves of the bikes they rode. Both of them rode 10 years ago. Right. And they know how fast the bikes are now. So they said that Bogachar wouldn't have won. I kind of tend to agree. I think a lot has changed. The aero bikes, the tires, the wheels.

[B]

I think the biggest one, I think it's the tires and the wheels.

[A]

Oh. I mean, I don't think you need to be a rocket scientist, Spencer, to know that that's the most component, the most important component of every single bike. Right. It's the one where the wheels are entire time. Right. It's it's what touches the ground first and that's what puts you in motion. Other than the wheels, you know, if you look at, I mean there's. There's three main component builders. You have Campagnolo, Shimano and sram. They're all good. So independently of which bike brand you're on, you're using one of those three grupos. But the wheels, I mean the wheels and the tires, it's massive, the change. And I sent a photo, a picture here in the chat if Gabriel can publish it. This is a picture of. We, we had this. We have a group, a group chat amongst, you know, all the ex U.S. postal writers. It's called the Blue Train Rides Again. Which you know is ultimately it's a goal that at some point we're going to get back together and all ride again together. But it's, it's been talked about a lot, but it hasn't happened yet. But there was a picture shared this week from the Tour de France 2004 which was staged with some, some of the cobble sections of Paris, Dubai. And we see here, we see Ekimov and George Hinkapie and Lance getting the first three riders onto the first cobbled section. If you look at those tires, Spencer, you know, those are just the normal, usual considered the wider, Wider ISH diameter, 23 millimeters which you know, they had, I think they had. I don't know if they had aero wheels or. Probably. Yeah, but, but yeah, I mean you see Ekimov coming in here first and if you see the size of those tires and you know, then we thought, or you know, people thought that for time trials and specific events, the narrow you went the better.

[D]

Yeah.

[B]

This is ridiculous. But I do remember thinking that.

[A]

Yeah. And now it's the opposite. You know, now I mean, I, if I'm not mistaken, I think Bogaccia rides 30 millimeter all year round. The standard, you know, is more or less 28 millimeter tires. Don't tell anybody now to go on 25 millimeter tires, which back then, at the moment of that picture were the tires we were used. We were using for the cobbled classics, the 25 millimeter Hutchinson tubulars. So yeah, I mean, listen, we, we both ride Spencer. We have, you know, we have good equipment. We have our ventums, we have our zip wheels. We have, you know, decent, you know, diameter tires. I Personally, I ride 32 millimeter tires on the road and I mean it's not for performance but in terms of comfort, it's amazing. What do you ride.

[B]

So I have 32s, just moved up to the 32s. I love them. Like, I don't. I can't imagine going back. I will say I'm not in shape currently, and I did a group ride with some pretty good guys, like Scott Monagar. The guy's won a race or two, and we were fast. We're going faster on sections, like flat sections, than I was 10 years ago when I was in very, very good shape.

[A]

So it shows you with a worse bike.

[B]

With a far worse bike. And it shows you just the. You're all rolling so much faster, and it has to be making a difference. I heard a pro say that the tubeless. These modern tubeless tires are 20% faster. Like 20. You put out 20% fewer watts. Sorry, 20 fewer watts versus the tubulars, which, you know, 10 years ago, that's what everyone would have been riding. I heard Cofitus was riding tubulars until last year. I mean, 20 fewer watts is a lot of watts. I mean, so these tires are significantly faster than the old ones.

[A]

Yeah. I think this year is the first year ever that every single team. There's no more teams. Is on tubulars. Everybody's on tires. And whether it's tubeless or not, that's up to the rider to choose. But, yeah, listen, I mean, it's a massive difference. So, I mean, to come back to the question, Would Pogacha have won? When? Nowadays, Tour de France with a bike from 10 years ago? I. I would. I would say probably not.

[B]

That's wild. That's wild that it can make that much of a difference. I mean, their argument, too, is maybe a hill climb, he wins. But day after day, you're putting out so much more effort than everybody else.

[A]

And also, I think Spencer would. Okay, you know, you would need to. Need to. He has the equipment of 10 years ago, and everybody else has today's equipment, which includes the gearing.

[B]

The gearing, yeah.

[A]

You know, that has changed massively. You know, I mean, if today you're. I mean, every. Every bike you ride, whether it's Ram or Shimano, you can ride 34 in the front, 34 in the back if you want. You know, I mean, 10 years ago would have been. Was there even a 3410 years ago?

[B]

I don't think so. Probably 28 was like. Yeah, 28 was crazy to have that. And that makes a huge difference on climbs. But let's take a quick break, and then we're gonna talk about fairness and how. How the sport can be unfair in ways that might not be obvious. Everybody, this episode is brought to you by Caldera Lab.

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[B]

So Johan, we're back. You, you actually to call back to what we were just about. You said the, you went to the, you went to leopard Trek in 2012 and the Schlex insisted on riding 21 millimeter tires.

[A]

Yeah, I remember, I remember we were, I mean I was always of the idea with, you know, with Postal and Discovery and, and then Radio Shack, we started radio shack that 23 millimeter tires were just the safe option. You know, you exclude, I mean especially for, I mean we always raced to 23, but also for the time trials and especially for the team time trials. You know, I just wanted to eliminate risk. And I remember so I brought, I don't know how many, 10 riders from radio Shack into the Leopard organization where they had, you know, they were riding track. But I remember we were riding Hutchinson, they were riding Schwalbe and they were insisting the whole clan around, the Schleck brothers and Cancellara, they were, they, they didn't want to ride 23 tires. They were insisting on riding 21 tires, which they did. You know, they had this whole stock of schwalbe tires of 21, which, you know, and it's always up to the rider. The riders can choose as long as you have, you know, the different sizes on offer. But yeah, turns out that there was obviously not, not the right way, the right thinking. It was more of a psychological. I, I just thought that also even in the downhills you will have less grip. It is more dangerous and especially when it's, when it's wet, it's, it's, you know, it's more dangerous.

[B]

So.

[A]

But yeah, I remember they were insisting on 21 tires.

[B]

You actually another thing, you must be right that he wouldn't win the tour with the bike from 10 years ago because you describing these tires these guys are on and then how much faster they're going now than then.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Shows you the penalty everybody was taking with those small tires. But I think we touched on it last week, but Jaco Alulua got. It was happening almost as we were podcasting. But they, they got their application in for the World Tour late because there was a delay with the UCI. The security deposit, basically, they have to put down, you have to put down a certain amount of money at the beginning of the year in case you stiff everybody on wages. It's like three months of your budget has to be tied up right now.

[A]

It's three months of the salaries.

[B]

Okay, three months.

[A]

Not the budget, the salaries. So the staff and rider salaries, 25% of that need to be covered with a deposit at the UCI and it stays there until, you know, you finish your year and then it gets released.

[B]

And we can kind of guess what. When I think you talked about how much Jerry Ryan is putting into the team, he allegedly covered that last second security deposit so they wouldn't go under. This is also, I heard that they're going to like going back to Kofedis being on Tubulars. What a big disadvantage to everybody else, by the way, like two years ago where you have like Guillaume Martin climbing, doing all these races on slower tires. But Jayco is apparently going to cut back some of their altitude camps. They just have to cut corners to try to make ends meet. If they wanted a sponsor to come on, that wasn't a Lula. Like if they wanted to replace JCO because JCO is Jerry Ryan's company, I mean, what would they need, like 10.

[C]

Million euros, something like that for more 15 million?

[B]

Yeah, yeah, it's like 15 for a co title sponsor, maybe even 20.

[A]

Well, I mean, you know, if, if Alul. I don't know, but I don't know how much ALULA is paying. But yeah, I mean to replace Jerry ryan, it's. It's 15 million.

[B]

And think of the pool of companies willing to do that. Not very many. I mean, what you're. We talked about last week, what we're seeing now is companies bring the teams in house because they're like, well, it's not worth paying that as a marketing expense to somebody else. We might as well own it. But is this unsustainable? It, it just has me worried. Like we're seeing a few teams with very big budgets that are state backed.

[C]

And then you have a few teams like INEOS with Jim Ratcliffe, who is.

[B]

A wealthy individual but then you think about teams like Jayco and you're like, where are they left in this? And is it really realistic for them to command that amount of money on the open sponsorship market? I really.

[A]

It is unsustainable, Spencer, in the long run, this sponsorship amount is trending upwards. It's not going to stop. It's what's fundamentally wrong with the economic model, the business model of cycling. A sport cannot survive if the main players are exclusively depending on external sponsorship. There is nothing in this sport for the riders and the teams that is generated by the sport. It goes to aso, to the organizers, into the UCI, which makes no sense. So, you know, I've seen reports now lately that, you know, they're talking about, would it be a good idea to, you know, make spectators pay for. To be a spectator? It's not a. It's not a popular answer, but my opinion is, yes, it makes sense. I mean, it is. I mean, name one. I mean, if you look at the Tour de France, for example, and put that in perspective with other big events, there is no other event which is free. If you want to be there, you have to pay. And you know, you can. I think that you don't. It doesn't need to be paying the whole. Of course you cannot make everybody pay, but in specific areas where you want to be, it's going to need to change. And especially that income. I mean, if they do that, for example, Tour can do that, guess where the money's going to go? Do aso.

[B]

Well, I was just going to say there are races that charge you to be there, like Tour of Flanders. But I mean, what a great business, right? Think about cyclocross. They charge, but all that money goes back to our good friends at Flanders Classics collects all that money that doesn't go.

[A]

If you look at cyclocross, for example, Spencer, it's different because, I mean, it's. Obviously, it's a small ecosystem. Yeah, but. But you have to.

[B]

But it's sustainable. I mean, that is actually.

[A]

But. But the riders are getting paid. The 10 top riders are getting paid to start there.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

You know that. That's. That's money that doesn't come from the team.

[B]

Yes.

[A]

You know, so they get a salary, but they're getting a starting fee too, which is what ultimately cycling will have to do.

[B]

People laugh at it, make fun of it, lampoon it. But cyclocross, the business model of it, is very good. Yeah, it's. It has a defined product, you pay for it, there's profit Sharing essentially with the top talents because they have to be paid to show up. I think there's something to be learned from looking at cyclocross. I mean, also think about Jerry Ryan. You talked about how much he spent 150 million euros about over 10ish years. That happens in US sports. Sometimes owners, they have to eat losses, they put money into the team, but it's worth it because eventually when you sell the asset, you'll make that back. The problem with cycling is there's nothing to sell. There's no. Think about an F1. What does an F1 team own? They don't really own that much except they own like a franchise spot in the sport that gives them access to revenues from that sport. So you might have to start thinking about that for cycling.

[A]

Yeah, I mean the difference with cyclocross is cyclocross makes it easier because it is a closed, very reduced surface which you cannot, you cannot do on in road cycling.

[B]

I mean even to go to the Tour is a. And I say this with love and people have disagreed with me. The level of, I would say like let's call it F and B. They call it in the industry, food and beverage. It is like you can't buy a water. It's like impossible to get a water.

[A]

It's.

[B]

It's unbelievable. Like there, there are revenue streams that they could put in. Johan, question for you before you have to get going. Well, someone actually put out like an analysis of. We were talking about who's better, Pagaccio or Vanderpoel. I think it was. Yeah. In the classics last week and someone sent us something where they actually combined Van der Poel, Jonas Rimco and this is the last two years versus Piga chart. So this is three of the best writers versus him. Grand Tours. Pagatra has won three. They've won one combined. Grand Tour stages. This is from a nice gentleman named David Brown, by the way. Grand Tour stages. Pagatra's won 16. Those three have won eight monuments. Five pagoda for the rest of them other one day races. Ten pagachar seven the rest of them in other stages, three pagoda two the rest of them. That is unbelievable.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

When you.

[A]

Yeah.

[B]

Bucket.

[A]

That's crazy. Crazy how good it is.

[B]

We just have time for one question before you have to take off. And this is a little. This is like just a. Let's just go along with it. I don't think it's going to happen this year. But does Johan think Pagachar could try to win all Three Grand Tours in the same year.

[A]

I think physically he's able to. It would need a special calendar, you know, not, not, not ride much else, you know, no classics.

[B]

Of course.

[A]

He'S able to do it, but it's not going to happen. You know, there's sponsor commitments, you know, he needs to be. I don't know if he's going to do the UAE Tour or not. I think I saw somewhere that he wants to start in two down under his season at his own request.

[B]

Why?

[A]

So? I don't know. I don't know.

[B]

Vacation free vacation.

[A]

I think to be far away from the Europe. I mean, anyways, guess what? Today, if you go to two down under, guess who's going to be there? The European media is going to go, you know, but, but yeah, I mean, this. Yeah, he's able to do it, but then the next question is, and probably the more, the more important question is, can you have a strong team around him to defend all those three races? Which is, you know, if, if Bogacha races, he's the favorite. You need to control the race. Do they have the manpower? I mean, initially you would say yes, it's the only team who can actually think about that. But they cannot have the same strong team in all those three races, because if Bogachar does the three Grand Tours, these other riders, they have to swap. Riders like guys who do the Giro will have to save themselves for the Vuelta. And then no matter what, you have to have the strongest team in the Tour. So, you know, you would say, well, nobody who does the Tour, or maybe one or two will do the Giro. Logistically, it's not an easy. It's not an easy exercise.

[B]

Well, think of the damage it would do to the morale of the team, because then he's hoarding every Grand Tour for himself. There's no chances for anyone else. And then you're asking those people to work for you.

[A]

I don't see a problem. I don't see a problem in that. With, with the riders that are there now. I don't think del Toro would have a problem. I don't think Ayuso would have a problem. I don't think Adam Yates would have a problem.

[B]

You don't think del Toro. What about Almeida?

[A]

I mean, I, I think I'll made is one of the best teammates I've ever seen. He's pretty selfless.

[B]

But I guess these guys are selfless because they know that they get a chance. I mean, I think he could have done this in 2024. I think he would have won that VTA, but then he probably doesn't win the Worlds. Right. Is that a bridge too far?

[A]

I don't know.

[B]

Yeah, yeah. And this is a sister question to that. This is from me. Are they, is the Vuelta starting in Monaco next year? To try to get him to do the race because it's right next to his house.

[A]

I, you know, I saw an interview of the, the director of the Vuelta, Javier Guillen, who said, you know, well, you know, it's close to his house. It's as close as possible. So if there's any year, this is the year. But I personally think that Bogacha is going to be more and more selective with, with his races and you know, all the races he's doing, he's writing them to win. I don't know, it depends. I think the Vuelta is always, I mean, especially for riders like, like today and Jonas. And it's always a last minute decision. First focus on the spring and the Tour and then we see what we have left. So this is a decision that will be made on the go, in my opinion. He's not doing the Giro. So it is possible to earn Vuelta.

[B]

Yeah, I, yeah, I mean, it's a fun thing to think about. I think it's probably. You would never recommend it for someone. It's just too physically taxing and then too taxing on the team, like you say.

[A]

Yeah, yeah.

[B]

Three, three week races probably would have to shrink them for someone to, to go for that. But anything else? Johan, before we take.

[A]

Okay. No, I have to, I have to go, Spencer. I'm running late, so. Okay. So thanks and speak next week.

[C]

All right, talk to you soon.

[A]

Okay, bye.

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