TheMOVE Podcast Summary
Episode: Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview | THEMOVE+
Release Date: May 21, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Guests: Spencer Martin, Johan Bernil

Introduction

In this episode of TheMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bernil delve into an in-depth analysis of Stage 11 of the Giro d'Italia, followed by a preview and predictions for Stage 12. The discussion provides listeners with expert insights into team strategies, rider performances, and the overall dynamics shaping the race.

Stage 11 Recap

Overview of Stage 11:
Stage 11 was a challenging mountainous stage featuring the formidable San Pellegrino climb, renowned for its steep gradients and length.

• Spencer Martin (01:04):
  "It's probably one of the hardest climbs in the race. Just smacked right in the middle of this."
  The stage was characterized by a deceptive flat start, followed by the intense climb of San Pellegrino, which significantly impacted the race's outcome.

Key Events:

• Breakaway Dynamics:
  An initial breakaway failed to establish a significant gap, primarily due to UAE Team Emirates' (UAE) strong tempo control, preventing the break from gaining momentum.

• Richard Carapaz's Attack:
  Near the end of the stage, Richard Carapaz launched a decisive attack on the final climb, managing to secure a 10-second gap over the main group. This move not only earned him the stage victory but also a crucial time bonus, elevating him to sixth place overall.

  • Spencer Martin (02:00):
    "He wins, gets a 10-second time bonus, so he's moved up into sixth place overall."

Team Performance:

• UAE's Strategy:
  UAE demonstrated remarkable team strength, maintaining group unity despite the stage's grueling demands. Johan highlights UAE's disciplined approach:

  • Johan Bernil (05:00):
    "UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever there were attacks or selections, they had three or four guys, if not more."

• Mads Peterson's Effort:
  Mads Peterson played a pivotal role by single-handedly closing a significant gap, showcasing his endurance and commitment.

  • Johan Bernil (06:30):
    "They chased Mats Peterson by himself, doing the work of like half a team for Chikone. He was incredible today."

Insights on UAE Team Performance

UAE Team Emirates exhibited exceptional coordination and resilience throughout Stage 11. Their ability to control the race tempo and maintain group cohesion was crucial in neutralizing breakaway attempts.

• Johan Bernil (05:00):
  "UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever there were attacks or selections, they had three or four guys, if not more."

This strategic prowess ensures UAE remains a formidable force in the race, balancing both team defense and individual ambitions.

Rider Performances

Richard Carapaz:
Carapaz's aggressive move on the final climb was both tactical and timely, allowing him to capitalize on a ripe opportunity.

• Spencer Martin (03:13):
  "Richard Carapaz's win? I would say pretty impressive."

Egan Bernal:
Despite a crash in the time trial, Bernal demonstrated strong recovery and form, attacking strategically to test the leaders.

• Johan Bernil (03:50):
  "Egan Bernal tried to attack. Great recovery by the way, from yesterday's bad performance."

Isaac Del Toro:
As the race leader, Del Toro showcased leadership by responding promptly to attacks, ensuring the GC remains competitive.

• Spencer Martin (10:15):
  "Isaac Del Toro was at one point in the early breakaway. That doesn't seem great, doesn't seem relaxed."

Race Leader Analysis

The current GC leader, Isaac Del Toro, faces pressure to defend his position amidst strategic attacks from rivals. The episode discusses the implications of recent moves on the overall standings.

• Spencer Martin (35:11):
  "Juana Usos plus 150. The favorite kind of interesting."

The interplay between Del Toro, Primos Roglic, and Richard Carapaz adds layers of complexity to the GC battle, with each rider employing different strategies to gain or defend time.

Stage 12 Preview

Stage Characteristics:

• Route: Modena to Viadana, spanning 172km through the Po Valley with minor detours into the surrounding mountains.
• Profile: Likely a sprint stage with categorized climbs, sprint points, and bonus seconds.
• Challenges: Technical sprint finish with a tricky corner approximately 300 meters from the finish line.

Predicted Outcome:
Both hosts anticipate a bunch sprint finish, albeit with potential tactical surprises due to the stage's technical demands.

• Spencer Martin (28:41):
  "I think he's fast, he's a strong rider who after 10, 11 days of racing will still be good enough. Big engine."

Top Contenders:

• Olaf Kio (+115): Favored due to his speed and strong team support.
• Kaden Groves (+275): Considered a value pick with impressive recent performances.
• Casper van Uden (+1800): Noted for his sprinting prowess despite longer odds.

Notable Strategies:
Teams with sprint specialists, such as Alpecin, Picnic, and Visma, are expected to control the race and set up their sprinters for the final dash.

• Johan Bernil (30:14):
  "If they can repeat what they did at the first week, then he's my second choice, especially because 18 + 1800 is a very interesting price."

Predictions and Odds

• Spencer Martin's Picks:

  • Primary: Olaf Kio (+115)
  • Secondary: Milan Fritton (+1400)
    "I'm gonna go Fritton. Just, that's my pick."

• Johan Bernil's Picks:

  • Primary: Olaf Kio
  • Secondary: Casper van Uden (+1800)
    "Casper van Uden is one of those guys, and this is one of those teams who have been waiting for a number of stages now for this particular stage."

Both hosts emphasize the unpredictability inherent in sprint stages, citing past instances where unexpected riders capitalized on race dynamics.

Conclusion

Spencer Martin and Johan Bernil provide a comprehensive analysis of Stage 11's outcome, highlighting strategic maneuvers and team performances that shaped the race's current landscape. Looking ahead, their insights and predictions for Stage 12 offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the Giro d'Italia's unfolding drama. The episode underscores the ever-present tension between individual ambitions and team strategies, setting the stage for an exhilarating continuation of the race.

Notable Quotes:

• Spencer Martin (01:37):
  "It's going to say, if this wasn't the real one, I don't want to meet the real one because this thing was ridiculous."

• Johan Bernil (06:30):
  "Mads Peterson was incredible today."

• Spencer Martin (12:31):
  "Every effort you make in a Grand Tour has to net you something and it takes something out of you."

• Johan Bernil (23:04):
  "Primos Roglic cannot be forgotten. He's tough."

• Spencer Martin (35:39):
  "They're gonna figure it out. They're not too worried about the paper airplanes at the press conference."

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