Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

TheMOVE Podcast Summary
Episode: Giro d'Italia Stage 11 Analysis & Stage 12 Preview | THEMOVE+
Release Date: May 21, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Guests: Spencer Martin, Johan Bernil

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Introduction

In this episode of TheMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bernil delve into an in-depth analysis of Stage 11 of the Giro d'Italia, followed by a preview and predictions for Stage 12. The discussion provides listeners with expert insights into team strategies, rider performances, and the overall dynamics shaping the race.

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Stage 11 Recap

Overview of Stage 11:
Stage 11 was a challenging mountainous stage featuring the formidable San Pellegrino climb, renowned for its steep gradients and length.

• Spencer Martin (01:04):
  "It's probably one of the hardest climbs in the race. Just smacked right in the middle of this."
  The stage was characterized by a deceptive flat start, followed by the intense climb of San Pellegrino, which significantly impacted the race's outcome.

Key Events:

• Breakaway Dynamics:
  An initial breakaway failed to establish a significant gap, primarily due to UAE Team Emirates' (UAE) strong tempo control, preventing the break from gaining momentum.

• Richard Carapaz's Attack:
  Near the end of the stage, Richard Carapaz launched a decisive attack on the final climb, managing to secure a 10-second gap over the main group. This move not only earned him the stage victory but also a crucial time bonus, elevating him to sixth place overall.

  • Spencer Martin (02:00):
    "He wins, gets a 10-second time bonus, so he's moved up into sixth place overall."

Team Performance:

• UAE's Strategy:
  UAE demonstrated remarkable team strength, maintaining group unity despite the stage's grueling demands. Johan highlights UAE's disciplined approach:

  • Johan Bernil (05:00):
    "UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever there were attacks or selections, they had three or four guys, if not more."

• Mads Peterson's Effort:
  Mads Peterson played a pivotal role by single-handedly closing a significant gap, showcasing his endurance and commitment.

  • Johan Bernil (06:30):
    "They chased Mats Peterson by himself, doing the work of like half a team for Chikone. He was incredible today."

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Insights on UAE Team Performance

UAE Team Emirates exhibited exceptional coordination and resilience throughout Stage 11. Their ability to control the race tempo and maintain group cohesion was crucial in neutralizing breakaway attempts.

• Johan Bernil (05:00):
  "UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever there were attacks or selections, they had three or four guys, if not more."

This strategic prowess ensures UAE remains a formidable force in the race, balancing both team defense and individual ambitions.

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Rider Performances

Richard Carapaz:
Carapaz's aggressive move on the final climb was both tactical and timely, allowing him to capitalize on a ripe opportunity.

• Spencer Martin (03:13):
  "Richard Carapaz's win? I would say pretty impressive."

Egan Bernal:
Despite a crash in the time trial, Bernal demonstrated strong recovery and form, attacking strategically to test the leaders.

• Johan Bernil (03:50):
  "Egan Bernal tried to attack. Great recovery by the way, from yesterday's bad performance."

Isaac Del Toro:
As the race leader, Del Toro showcased leadership by responding promptly to attacks, ensuring the GC remains competitive.

• Spencer Martin (10:15):
  "Isaac Del Toro was at one point in the early breakaway. That doesn't seem great, doesn't seem relaxed."

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Race Leader Analysis

The current GC leader, Isaac Del Toro, faces pressure to defend his position amidst strategic attacks from rivals. The episode discusses the implications of recent moves on the overall standings.

• Spencer Martin (35:11):
  "Juana Usos plus 150. The favorite kind of interesting."

The interplay between Del Toro, Primos Roglic, and Richard Carapaz adds layers of complexity to the GC battle, with each rider employing different strategies to gain or defend time.

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Stage 12 Preview

Stage Characteristics:

• Route: Modena to Viadana, spanning 172km through the Po Valley with minor detours into the surrounding mountains.
• Profile: Likely a sprint stage with categorized climbs, sprint points, and bonus seconds.
• Challenges: Technical sprint finish with a tricky corner approximately 300 meters from the finish line.

Predicted Outcome:
Both hosts anticipate a bunch sprint finish, albeit with potential tactical surprises due to the stage's technical demands.

• Spencer Martin (28:41):
  "I think he's fast, he's a strong rider who after 10, 11 days of racing will still be good enough. Big engine."

Top Contenders:

• Olaf Kio (+115): Favored due to his speed and strong team support.
• Kaden Groves (+275): Considered a value pick with impressive recent performances.
• Casper van Uden (+1800): Noted for his sprinting prowess despite longer odds.

Notable Strategies:
Teams with sprint specialists, such as Alpecin, Picnic, and Visma, are expected to control the race and set up their sprinters for the final dash.

• Johan Bernil (30:14):
  "If they can repeat what they did at the first week, then he's my second choice, especially because 18 + 1800 is a very interesting price."

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Predictions and Odds

• Spencer Martin's Picks:

  • Primary: Olaf Kio (+115)
  • Secondary: Milan Fritton (+1400)
    "I'm gonna go Fritton. Just, that's my pick."

• Johan Bernil's Picks:

  • Primary: Olaf Kio
  • Secondary: Casper van Uden (+1800)
    "Casper van Uden is one of those guys, and this is one of those teams who have been waiting for a number of stages now for this particular stage."

Both hosts emphasize the unpredictability inherent in sprint stages, citing past instances where unexpected riders capitalized on race dynamics.

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Conclusion

Spencer Martin and Johan Bernil provide a comprehensive analysis of Stage 11's outcome, highlighting strategic maneuvers and team performances that shaped the race's current landscape. Looking ahead, their insights and predictions for Stage 12 offer listeners a nuanced understanding of the Giro d'Italia's unfolding drama. The episode underscores the ever-present tension between individual ambitions and team strategies, setting the stage for an exhilarating continuation of the race.

Notable Quotes:

• Spencer Martin (01:37):
  "It's going to say, if this wasn't the real one, I don't want to meet the real one because this thing was ridiculous."

• Johan Bernil (06:30):
  "Mads Peterson was incredible today."

• Spencer Martin (12:31):
  "Every effort you make in a Grand Tour has to net you something and it takes something out of you."

• Johan Bernil (23:04):
  "Primos Roglic cannot be forgotten. He's tough."

• Spencer Martin (35:39):
  "They're gonna figure it out. They're not too worried about the paper airplanes at the press conference."

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For more detailed analysis and future race previews, subscribe to THEMOVE on your preferred podcast platform.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan Bernil]

Kept going in uae. And finally after the climb, after the downhill, some groups came back together and they had all eight riders together. I mean, you don't understand, Spencer, how that feels as a team. The comfort it gives to see, okay, guys, listen, everybody's suffering, everybody's tired. We have all eight guys here. That sounds safe. You know, that feels really safe as a team who's in the lead. So, yeah, UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever, whenever there was attacks or a selection, they had three or four guys, if not more.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernill. We are breaking down stage 11 of the Giro d'. Italia, and then at the end, we'll preview stage 12 and Johan will give his pick on who's going to win and how it's going to play out. First, a quick little primer on the stage. Richard Carapaz wins. First of all, going even back further than that. It's a mountainous stage, deceptively hard, like a flat opening. Flat 2, false flat opening section. Probably one of the hardest climbs in the race. Just smacked right in the middle of this. The outbay San Peno. Not quite sure. Still not sure if this is the real.

[Johan Bernil]

It is.

[Spencer Martin]

It is.

[Johan Bernil]

It is the. It is the real hard San Pellegrino.

[Spencer Martin]

It's going to say, if this wasn't the real one, I don't want to meet the real one because this thing was ridiculous. 14k long. It said 9.9% average on the TV. Graphic here, it says 8.8% average and then descent and then a few climbs to the finish. There was a final climb, about 6k long with 6% average and then rolling to the finish line. We thought breakaway, and initially there was a breakaway, but it didn't go until the climb. And that the problem that created is it couldn't create a gap because UAE was riding tempo back in the group to deter attack. So their gap never got high enough and they got reeled in at the end. He had EF up there thinking, what? What's EF doing at the front of this race? And then Richard Carapaz attacks on the final climb, a little bit of Almost hesitation from UAE and Carapaz holds them off by 10 seconds. His gap was getting eaten into in the rollers at the end there. But he Wins, get a 10, gets a 10 second time bonus, 10 second gap. So he's moved up into sixth place overall, 156 behind Isaac Del Toro, who's still in the lead, who actually puts a little bit of time in everybody because he gets second, gets that six second time bonus. But all the major contenders finish in the group behind. It's an 18 rider group. The breakaway was Nairo Quintana, Pella, Bill Bal, Luke Plapp and Lorenzo Fortunato. So strong riders. And also W polls. Don't forget W polls. You're almost right there, Johan, with your pick. But first of all, what were your thoughts on how the stage was won? Richard Carapaz's win? I would say pretty impressive.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, that was an impressive final as you say, Spencer. You know, once you saw that the, from the beginning there was a lot of attacks, big groups even, but you know, if there's big groups, you cannot give them much time. And then finally these four riders, five riders went away on, on the San Pellegrino and, and by definition, you know, it's, it's, it's good climbers. You know, if you, if you look at the names, Quintana, Pulse, Fortunato, Luke, Plap, Payo, Bilbao. But UAE was in a position that they had, I think on the San Pellegrino. I still had four guys together on the climb. Primo Roglic was isolated, nobody else had many teammates around and so we could see that they were setting a pace basically to, to, to avoid any other attacks. Egan Bernal tried to, to attack. Great recovery by the way, from, from yesterday's bad performance. We sat in the show and then afterwards I saw Ego. Bernal did crash yesterday in the time trial pretty hard. So you know, he had that as an excuse for his counter performance. But today he looked back on, on good shape. He attacked. And so after that UAE just set a tempo because with attacks they, you lose the, the unity in your team. I could see again, I mean since it's been a while ago since we've seen him on such a high level. But Rafael Mika today looked like he was back in his prime. He set a tempo that nobody could attack. And so I think UAE today, they wrote very strong. They also wrote very conservative because if you look at what happened after the climb, so the big climb was in the middle, the San Pellegrino. It's, it's normal that your Team is going to fall apart. But everybody kept going in UAE and, and finally after the climb, after the downhill, some groups came back together and they had all eight riders together. I mean, you don't, you, you don't, you don't understand, Spencer, how, how that feels as a team. The comfort it gives to see, okay, guys, listen, everybody's suffering, everybody's tired, but we have all eight guys here. That sounds safe. You know, that feels really safe. As a team who's was in the lead? So, yeah, UAE was incredibly strong today. Whenever, whenever there was attacks or a selection, they had three or four guys, if not more. And then, so, yeah, I mean, then finally the breakaway was reeled in. They kept a good pace. Nobody else could attack. And finally the, the also we need to, we need to mention a part of UAE chasing Mats Peterson by himself did the work of like half a. Half a team for Chikone. He was, he was incredible today.

[Spencer Martin]

Closed like a 2 1/2 minute gap to the breakaway.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. Basically by himself. Yeah, he was incredible. He was incredible. Yeah. I mean, the atmosphere in the track must be unbelievable. They won four stages already. Everybody's there, it's there, euphoric, you know, and, and really good ambiance for sure. At the dinner table, in the bus, nothing. They don't, there's no more pressure. They don't have to do anything, but everything that comes is a bonus. So Mads Peterson, what a teammate. And then, yeah, on the last climb, EF set a really fast pace, preparing an attack from. From Carapas. It was clear he was going to attack. Was it Steinhausen who was. Wasn't Houser? Yeah. And you could see Karapas on the radio. Everybody sees that also. So I was a bit surprised that nobody else tried to go with him. I mean, UAE didn't have to go with him because they are defending pink and they, they just want to keep their guys together. He kind of took advantage right of the fact that he attacked at the moment that the breakaway was caught and so he went on the inside. But anyways, yeah, it was a matter of legs. If anybody else would have had something left, they would have tried to go with him or bridge up to him. He took 20, 30 seconds in 2, 3 km time and then lost a little bit in the end. But, but yeah, I mean, great win. First of all, the stage win itself. It's. It's a great stage to win. And he's. Yeah, he's moving up in GC again. He didn't do a good time trial yesterday, but in all the other stages, he's been up there without making too much noise. So, yeah, he's definitely has the podium in mind. I, I, I heard his interview after the stage. He then doesn't even exclude winning. I think that's probably a bridge too far. But he's a stage racer and he's a specialist in three week stage races. So I think Carapas is only going to improve now in this Giro.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it was super impressive.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

To answer your question, I, I too was surprised no one else went. I thought Tom Pickock would contest the stage in the same way Carapaz did. The reason no one went with them, though, is they were too, too tired. They did not have the energy because that was a hard stage. Guys like Pitcock, they were swinging mid stage, you know, just barely hanging on. So he's not going to be able to go. I look like think about Derek G, Einar, Rubio Tibery. These guys are just, they, I don't think they could do it. And even Carapace himself looked so. He had a pretty big gap going over the top of the climb and it was evaporating and he was dead at the finish line. So I think he is just really strong. He always looks like he's going hard, but sometimes he's not going as fast as he would want to be going. But today wasn't one of those days. On the UA notes, yes, they, they had everyone together. Super impressive couple. Couple things I have questions about. Isaac del Toro, the race leader was at one point in the early breakaway. That doesn't seem great, doesn't seem relaxed. And then on the climb, as you, you say, Rafa Micah is in career best form. Egan Bernal attacks. And mind you, we are 110km from the finish line. Egan Bernal attacks Juan so takes his arm, pushes Rafa Micah out of the way and sprints up to the rear wheel of Egan Bernal. And then of course, Isaac Del Toro says, well, I don't want that guy to get time on me. I'm going to go up soon, too. The question I would have for all of those people is, where is he going? We're 110km to the finish line. Like, just stay with your team. Yeah, dad, it was a little confusing to me.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, I know, I know. Listen, they're two young guys. You know, there's, let's not forget they're both in the classification. I mean, they're the first and second in the white jersey competition, as we, as we mentioned yesterday. Yeah, I mean, in that case, you should probably not. Not react straight away. Stay with your team, keep the team together. On the other hand, it's also a way of closing down Bernal. You know, if he sees that Del Toro and Ayusu are there, he's not going to keep going. And then the teammates can kind of keep going at their own tempo and come back. So, you know, there's benefits to both strategies. But, you know, we see. I mean, they have the luxury UAE to have so many guys up there that actually, no matter the tiny mistakes they're making, it doesn't really affect the outcome of the stage. On the contrary.

[Spencer Martin]

For example.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, on the contrary. For example, if you see how Primoz Rokovich is racing and he has to do it by force, he is forced to do it because he has no teammates. This guy doesn't spend any unnecessary efforts. You know, he's never completely in the front. He's like always, you know, like between 5th and 10th or sometimes in 10, 12 position looking. And whatever gap he has to close, he either waits until somebody else closes it or in case of emergency, he closes himself, but always progressively never with a violent acceleration, which in my opinion, in the last week will pay off.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I was. I mean, you sat here on this podcast after Stage three and said, every effort you make in a Grand Tour has to net you something and it takes something out of you, especially snap accelerations on a 12% climb. At the top of the climb, it might not affect the outcome of the stage, it might not affect them tomorrow or the day after, but you have a finite number of those explosive moves in you over the course of three weeks. And you see Roglich, like Roglich is who's won more than anyone in this race. Primus Rogue, he has five ground tours and he's not wasting any energy. Yeah, he's slowly closing everything down.

[Johan Bernil]

You know, on that note, we also have to say he has no other choice, Spencer. He's gone down twice already in this year also, which is also something you have to. You have to take in mind. And we'll see. I mean, I think today, specifically today, Primus Roglic and Juana, you saw, didn't have a great day. They were. They. They didn't have. They didn't have the luxury to attack or follow attacks or, you know, even when. Even when Del Toro went, Ayusho could not follow. I mean, he had to. He had to go on the side and wait until somebody else closed the gap. So if Ayushu just have followed the wheel, you Know, if he. If he has. If he's comfortably in the wheel there, then he would have done it. So he couldn't. Roglic, the same. Roglic was a little bit back, didn't react straight away. It was still far to go also. I mean, at least there's. There's always going to be. I mean, when del Toro went on the last climb. No, was on the last climb, I think.

[Spencer Martin]

So the five kilometer climb. It would be too far if it was the other climb.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, yeah. But still, when Del went, Caruso and Tiberi were straight away on the wheel, so it was not like it was a super violent attack. It was. I don't really know why he did it. You know, I think it's the pure inexperience and the adrenaline and the excitement that makes him do these things. What's for sure is he's incredibly strong. I mean, once again, he got second. He had the most punch at the end, but it was really impressive at the end.

[Spencer Martin]

Like, yeah, was almost coasting into second.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. Yeah. So, yeah. I mean, didn't have a great time to all yesterday, but in these kind of stages, it's the second or the third time already that we see that, you know, he rides around like, as they say, no chain, you know, doesn't feel the pedals. Is. Is. Yeah, he's scary strong. I would not be comfortable if I'm one of his rivals, including.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, yeah, he is very strong. Scary strong. I. I totally agree with that. If he was your rider and he's jumping into the early move, attacking on the final climb, sprinting for second is totally good because you get six seconds. That's worth it. What would you tell him? Would you say, keep it up? Or would you say, this is not sustainable?

[Johan Bernil]

It depends. I mean, you know, I mean, depends. In the case of. In the case of UAE and Machin, it may be good for Machin because he's obviously promised the leadership to Ayuso, and, you know, he sees this young Mexican guy who's strong, making these little mistakes, so he maybe can say, okay, guys, listen, just do. Just keep doing it. We're in the lead. And in the same time, the guy that I want to win the Giro is saving himself. I'm just talking. I mean, I don't know. I don't know. I'm just. This is a hypothesis, but I would. I would recommend him to. To. To take it. I mean, not take it easy, but be conservative and. And really save. I mean, he's in the lead now. It's the other guys who have to attack. And he will need every single bit of energy in the last week. So I would recommend him to, you know, just follow and rely on his team.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, this is the easiest part of the race. Like, it only gets harder from here and on. Iuso and Roglich, I, I agree. I don't think they looked amazing today. Doesn't really. They're kind of lucky because then I don't think the next few days are going to be that GC decisive. Even Sunday stage to Asiago, you got to do Monte Grappa, but then it's this long. There's a lot of K's to race after Monte Grappa and then I think week threes where it's going to go down. So they have a lot, you know, a lot of time to let Del Toro run on that line, that fishing line, while they get better. Yeah, I, I'm sitting.

[Johan Bernil]

It can happen, Spencer. It can happen that the day after a big time trial and they both went very, very deep, that you're not. You're not feeling great. You know, they both gave it everything they had yesterday. The day after, it can happen that you feel like, okay, this is not a great day. Let me just try to, you know, stay where I am and, and, and not be seen. Both of them could. I mean, we've saw. We've seen a little. A few details that could say maybe they were not great today, but they could hide it pretty well. It was not extremely obvious, I would say.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I mean, that's why they're both. I guess ISO's not. He's clearly younger and not one as much as Primus Raglich, but very like, I was impressed by his. He's almost like a veteran savvy.

[Johan Bernil]

He's a race. Race savvy. Race savvy.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, he is.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Except when he's pushing his dub mystiques out of the way so he can close that. That's what they're there for. That's what they make the money for. A couple more UAE questions for you. So after Carapaz attacks, Carapat's attacks, they. They got real the move. Fans will know what I'm refere to the front and Adam Yates and Brendan McNulty are pacing and they do a fine job. They get within 10 seconds, Carapaz gets 20 seconds. Like, that's kind of not ideal, but it probably is going to be fine. Yeah. So, I mean, no notes on the chase. The only thing is they don't. They lose A little bit of time in the gc, but they don't totally like blow up. I mean, is this sustainable? Like what's the plan for these two guys that are still in the top 10? They'll probably continue to leak time, but will they fully sell out for their domestic duties because of that GC position? Will that not matter?

[Johan Bernil]

It's great to have them up there, you know, because in the stages that are not, not coming, I mean in case there's a big group, you can put one of those two in there, you know, that's going to be their job to cover the moves. Like, like groups of 20, 25.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, but we saw that today with like, I think we saw like a group of 30 or something go up the road. Yeah, more than 30, more than 30 can't control, so.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, well you can, you can't. You can. If it's, if it's hard and you know, if it's a hard stage, you can control it. But if it's not hard, the group in front, I mean, and then if you all of a sudden you have a situation where everybody looks at you and say, okay, uae, come on you guys. You know, the good looking boys, it's up to you. Now we're all, you know, we're not, nobody's going to help you. Then you're kind of in trouble. So in that, in those cases, it's interesting to have these guys like Adam Yates and McNulty because if one of them is in there, they're always in a good, in weird situation. There's no other team who's going to be better than them.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay, I'm sold.

[Johan Bernil]

All right, so for the next four stages, that's going to be very handy.

[Spencer Martin]

And on, on Roglich watch, people might have noticed he had an additional teammate with them today. So instead of having one rider with them over the top of that mid stage climb, he had two riders with them, which still 2 versus 7, I guess I use. It was a little different because he had eight teammates, but really six helpers because one of the teammates is now racing for the overall as well. Yeah, that's not a great ratio. Like Red Bull still has not put it all together.

[Johan Bernil]

No, no, no, no, no, no. Definitely not. So they, I mean as we said, you know yesterday, they, they, they had five guys in the crash. They have now a few days to lick their wounds and try to be better. But it's not easy to improve in a grand tour. Once you're struggling, it's, you know, you're Hurt, you have wounds, you don't sleep well, you don't recover during the races. You're suffering more than usual. So it's more difficult to recover from that. Yeah. I mean, maybe one or two guys can turn it around, but we're not going to see the whole Red Bull team firing on all cylinders for the rest of this. Zero.

[Spencer Martin]

Any other thoughts on the stage before we go to the preview for tomorrow?

[Johan Bernil]

What else was there? Yeah, I mean, Fortunato. Fortunato is clearly going for the kom. Did it, you know, had a big day today with. Was it 40 points at the top, I think. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And he looks a lot better than he did a few years ago.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. So it's clear that. I mean, it's still not. There's a lot of climbs to become, but, yeah, it's. Once again, I think the KOM is going to be won by a breakaway rider, which, you know, it's not. It's not. It's a shame that it's not the best climber in the race who wins the kom. That's, in my opinion, a classification that they should rethink a little bit.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. The Giro tends to have this where it's not the best climber, it's someone who games it. The Tour has had the opposite problem where it's the best climber, but that is the guy who's just winning the gc. Except last year. I thought last year was a really good. That was almost the best version of the KOM you can get because you had Carapaz doing everything he could do to take it from Pagachar, who didn't even really care about it. But know, like, there was that stage 20 where he had to sneak into the. He had to, like, bridge up to the breakaway to seal the jersey, which was kind of thrilling to watch.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And obviously a good climber, like, not someone that's a Panakan, as you guys would say.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. But still, he. He also won it with breakaways.

[Spencer Martin]

With breakaways. But, I mean. Yeah. Yeah. But bridging out of the. The lead group on a mountain stage and then up to the breakaway and then still competing for the. When, like, I'll give you.

[Johan Bernil]

Well, it's also. Spencer, listen, it's very simple, you know, that, like, the. The guys for GC are obviously also the best climbers, but they don't care about the kom. It's not. It's not something that they go for at the expense of their gc if they're a podium or top Five candidate.

[Spencer Martin]

They could. Yeah, it could be kind of interesting if this would just make it worse. But if there was like triple the UCI points available to the winner of the KOM jersey. You can see some really weird stuff out there.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, no, I think the KOM should, at least in the big mountain stages, should have double points on the, on the, on the final climb.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Bernil]

Then you're, then you make sure that the best climber has the, the kom.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that would make sense. I mean, what do you think about the design of the stage generally? Like, that was an awesome climb, but it's in the middle, so it kind of blunts. It's.

[Johan Bernil]

Well, you know, it's, it keeps the suspense. Right. Because if today, if today is finished on the San Pellegrino. Yeah. The GC would be different. You know, it would be a race between three riders already.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Bernil]

Now there's still, you know, there's still a bunch of riders within two minutes, two and a half minutes. So that's good.

[Spencer Martin]

I think that's good. Yeah. I mean, I don't know if this is interesting to the general public, but even just saying like, oh, they have two and a half minutes, like, is the peloton gonna chase? And then Matt's Patterson gets the front and blows up the gap and then you have a pretty thrilling race for the stage win and some GC implications. Not pretty exciting. So. Yeah, worked out well. Well, let's take an ad break, Johan, and then we'll predict stage. Tomorrow's stage 12. The first partner we have today is Maui Nui. Maui nui's line of 100 wild harvested red meats is. It is an extremely healthy option that delivers the highest protein to calorie ratio available. 53% more than grass fed beef. Their sugar free peppered stick packs offer 10 grams of protein at just 55 calories per pack and are loaded with essential nutrients, vitamins, healthy fats, and are the perfect snack to stay fueled between meals pre or post workout or pre podcast. I had one right before coming down to the studio, so I feel fueled up. I also. This might just be. What are they? Placebo effect. But I've been having these, these packs throughout the day and I feel like I'm snacking less and then eating healthier at meals, but that's not scientifically backed up. I just feel that that's true. And one of the best parts of ordering from Maui Nui venison is that you're not only getting healthy, delicious, ethical meals delivered directly to your door, but you're playing a key role in their mission to reclaim the abundant food system and preserve the delicate native ecosystems on Maui. As a former resident on the island of the island I know that a, it's difficult just to get food there. Usually you're paying a lot for imported food. Doesn't make a lot of sense because you can grow a lot of food and harvest food there. And that's what Maui Nui is doing, providing a local food source. And the issue of the axis deer overpopulation is real and Maui Nui is doing their best to ethically solve that problem. So now that you know Maui Nui offers 100% wild harvested meat that's completely stress free and responsibly sourced. It's, and it's perfect for anyone looking to elevate their meals with delicious high quality protein. You're, you're in luck because the move listeners are offered a limited collection of their favorite cuts and products, but supply is limited by the nature of their work. All you have to do is head to Maui newevenison.com the move to secure your access now that's Maui newevenison.comThe move to get that now. And the link is in the show notes if you just want to follow it there. And our last partner for the day is Saly. When I'm traveling abroad for bike races when I was in France for the tour last summer, it's a, it's tough because you're trying to watch the race. You're running around. Johan, you know this. You can burn through so much data when you're trying to, when you're at the race, it's hard to see the race so you have to watch it on your phone. If you're using your, your like local US plan abroad you might get some data but you're gonna, you're not gonna be able to watch that much of the race and you're gonna eat through your allotment quickly. And that's where Saily helps. It's a mobile ESIM app that lets you grab your local data plan in over 150 countries right from your phone. No more swapping SIM cards, no more hunting down phone stores and a jet lagged haze. You land in a new country, open the app and boom, you're connected. This is, I can't say enough about this. You don't have to go to like a phone store in France and try to speak French and buy a SIM card. It's, it's not a pleasant experience. And with an ESIM you can just do it directly on your phone. It's fast, affordable and reliable and built by the Same people behind NordVPN who we use a lot on this podcast to watch a lot of the races. So you know it's a good product. Download the Sally app or head to saily.com themove that's s a I L Y and use code themove at checkout to save. To save 50% on your data plan. Again, that's saily.com themove and use code the move at checkout for 15% off your data plan. All right, Johan. Stage 12. Tomorrow we get a likely sprint stage from Modena to Viadana. We'll. We'll call it. It's one of these confusing ones where you have two names up here. I'm just going to pick the first one. 172km. It is in the Po Valley. It could be Pancake Flat, but they take a little detour into the mountains around Modena. Modena. So there's a few categorized climbs, there's some sprint points, some bonus seconds. I think this is probably going to be a bunch sprint. I will. And then you have a very Giro circuit in town that's probably overly difficult. The odds for the stage are Olaf Coy is the heavy favorite at + 115. Kaden Groves + 275. Mads Pedersen + 1100. Sam Bennett + 1100. Milan Freton + 1400. Paul Monnier + 1600. Casper van Uden. + 1800. Matteo Muschietti + 1800. Wout van Aert + 2500. It goes on and on. We'll call him out if we need to. But, Johan, who do you think is going to win this stage?

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, well, first of all, we expect it to be a bunch print. It's not 100% sure, Spencer, because the first part of a stage is quite hard. There's going to be a break of riders who are strong riders. Now, this is obviously a stage where teams with sprinters have been waiting for. So normally there's going to be two or three teams that will try to control. I expect a bunch print. It's flat at the end, could be a bit technical. There's. There's a tricky corner with. With about 3 or 400 meters to go, but still, I think there's. There's enough interest amongst certain teams with sprinters, Alpecin, Picnic, Visma and others who actually only are here for this, you know, around the sprinter. So I'm going to pick. Although he hasn't been, I mean he's been, he's been one time, second, I guess Olaf Koi, you know, he's had some bad luck in some of the sprints, didn't really go his way. But he's fast, he's a strong rider who after 10, 11 days of racing will still be good enough. Big engine. So Olaf koi is only 115 plus 115, but I think he is my best choice tomorrow for doing the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, that 365 which is available in the US he's plus 125 so that's slightly better.

[Johan Bernil]

He's, he's fast.

[Spencer Martin]

Obviously the market thinks he's really fast. I guess the thing is that second place, he didn't really get a chance to show it because he was boxed in. The only thing is, right, you know who looked pretty good when Olaf Coy got second was Kaden groves. And he's plus 275. So I would probably go Groves just because of the price. And he's looks, he looked fast.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And he's got the motivated, dedicated team. So right there that's a pretty good combination. I'm not saying Coy isn't going to win, but I do think they probably should be.

[Johan Bernil]

No, I agree, I agree with you. Spencer Groves looked fast. He looked incredibly fast. A lot faster than everybody else. The stage he won and then there's at least one stage that I can remember that I saw him come from behind and had the highest speed of all the sprinters. Didn't make it to the first or second. But I'm just, you know, a little bit more leaning to Olaf Koi because I think Walt von Aert is back to decent form and he's going to be the lead out guy for Olaf Koi tomorrow. So if Walt Van Aert can bring him in good position, I think Olaf Koi has a good chance.

[Spencer Martin]

You know what we sometimes see on stages like this and we see it more and more every year and did I feel like it didn't used to happen that much. So you say it's hard in the beginning, teams get nervous. They say, oh, breakaway, could stay away. Keep the breakaway on a tight leash. And we've been waiting forever for this stage. We're here to win. These sprints, they keep the gap too small and then a, they either catch it too early and then a fresh group of writers go. That happened at the zero, I want to say three years ago or two years ago. And then I believe Magnus Court won that stage or he Got second. And then what happened at the Tour two years ago is where you get it too close, and then people bridge up to the breakaway from the peloton, and then you have now fresh blood in the breakaway. Like, you have this little launch pad with about 100. You know, it's about. With like 70k to go. Stuff could get weird there. And then you, like. I do worry about them keeping this too tight, but then trying to pick who would win out of that is probably too difficult. But do you have another pick in case.

[Johan Bernil]

Well, I'm gonna. My second pick is also going to be a sprinter, and especially because of the price. Casper von Wooden/1800 won a stage already showed that he is really fast. His team is the only thing they have to do here. They're out of gc. You know, Bardet is not. Not in great shape. Max Pool is also fading, I think definitely not good enough to be with the first group. So I think Casper van Uden is one of those guys, and this is one of those teams who have been waiting for a number of stages now for this particular stage. So if they can repeat what they did at the. In the first week, then he's my. He's my second choice, especially because 18 + 1800 is a very interesting price. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And that final hairpin, it's like a negative or decreasing radius turn. It's ridiculous. That could play a big part. It's probably 400, 300 meters to go. Whoever has the best lead out there, it's going to have a huge advantage. Casper Van Newton, he had that really impressive picnic lead out, who timed it perfectly last time. I'm gonna go. Milan Fritton, though, he got second to. Actually, no, he got. Yeah, he had second in Napoli. Groves got second to Van Uden. I'm gonna go Fritton. Just. That's my pick. If. If people crash like, or if people are out of position. They're not turn.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And then, like, you see this all the time at the zero, and you're like, what. How's that the outcome of the sprint. So.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, no, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

It's.

[Johan Bernil]

It's typical. And especially for this Giro. We've said it already before, Spencer, you know, there's. There's not one team that really has the power to maintain that speed of the sprint train and make it, like a real lead out. They're always bunched up. And Fred is one of those riders who knows how to navigate and all of a sudden sees an opening to win the stage. It's a Bit of a stretch, I think, but it's not impossible.

[Spencer Martin]

And just before we go, these odds have been moving quite a bit even since the time trial. This is to win the overall. Juana Usos plus 150. The favorite kind of interesting. Isaac del Toro second plus 200. Primos Roglic plus 300. Richard Car plus 800. It's interesting that Roglic has gotten worse since the time trial, but nothing has changed other than Del Toro getting that time bonus and then Carapaz getting 20 seconds back.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. And. And once again today, you know, the weakness of Roguelicious team versus the strength of uae, I think that was kind of very obvious today. So that's maybe why it has changed.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Yeah. The strength of uae, I feel like that cuts both ways, though. I. I was not. I was just so. And I know I'm making too much of it, but you rarely see a leader, a leader's jersey.

[Johan Bernil]

I think, Spencer, when it really matters. I think you're going to figure it out. They're gonna figure it out.

[Spencer Martin]

They're not too worried about the paper airplanes at the press conference.

[Johan Bernil]

Hey, listen. No, because let's not forget these guys. Two years ago, they were teenagers. They're kids. They are kids. It's different. They have other priorities. You know, it's like, okay, let's have fun. Let's make a paper plane, you know?

[Spencer Martin]

Well, here's a crazy thing I was in about last night.

[Johan Bernil]

The.

[Spencer Martin]

The age gap between Primus, Raglitz and Del Toro is almost the same as between Del Toro and my son, who is, like. Who was born, like, right after Pagachar won his first tour, which doesn't feel that long ago. So.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

The maturity difference must be ridiculous.

[Johan Bernil]

I know. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Bernil]

I have to say, though, I have to say, though, I mean, both are you so. And Del Toro, I mean, they're totally different characters, but, man, in the. In their interviews, they are extremely mature. Extremely mature. I listened to an interview with Del Toro in Spanish. Yeah, I mean, hats off. It's. It's nice to see, you know, they're young, they want to have fun. You know, they're on Tick Tock, whatever, but they know what they want, man. They. They're really, really, really. They have. Both of them have a good head on their shoulders.

[Spencer Martin]

I used to almost seems media trained, like, at that very young age. Like, it's. His answers are very good. Who would you pick, those three to win if you had to pick right now?

[Johan Bernil]

I'm still gonna go with Primos Primos cannot be forgotten. He's. He's tough. He's done some really, really good things in the last week of a Grand Tour already, several times. And, yeah, I'm. I'm. I'm. I'm a. I'm. I'm a pretty WAS fan.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm. Yeah, I'm wearing a Primo shirt right now, so maybe don't listen to my advice, but I'm surprised.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah. Yeah, I see. I see. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Plus 300 on this. That. It seems a little. If you wanted to bet Primos, now's the time to bet them, because it's not going to get better than this even. What's funny is it was the other day I saw Del Toro was like, plus 200 to finish in the top 10, which I must have been a mistake. I bet it. But I would imagine he finishes in the top 10 at this point.

[Johan Bernil]

If he doesn't finish in the top.

[Spencer Martin]

10, he probably doesn't finish the race at all.

[Johan Bernil]

Yeah, it's gonna be. It's easy. That's even, you know, either a complete meltdown or. Or sickness. Other than that, he's definitely finishing at top 10.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Well, yeah, even with, like, a sickness. Like, you know, it's crazy. Is like Pagachar had that meltdown at the 20, 23 tour, and then he still finishes second. Like, that shows you, like, some of these guys are so much better that they can still salvage really good results when they have terrible days, but. Anything else, Johan, on tomorrow stage before we take off?

[Johan Bernil]

No, that's it for me, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, well, we will talk tomorrow about stage 12 and look forward to stage 13.

[Johan Bernil]

Okay, thanks.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.