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Giro d'Italia Stage 12 Analysis & Stage 13 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:34:44
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down Olav Kooij's sprint win on Stage 12 of the Giro d'Italia, where Wout van Aert continued his comeback by providing an incredible leadout and Isaac del Toro grabbed two more time bonuses to extend his race...
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- [00:00]
Spencer Martin
My concern here is actually not a concern. This would be fascinating to see. Like, what if they can't get them? But I use, I USO can. And then we're with like a Vuelta 2023 situation where the only rider capable of mowing you down is your own teammate. What then happens like that, then are.
- [00:18]
Johan Bruyneel
You so doing it for sure is going for it? Yeah, yeah, he's, he, he's the winner. He's the leader. In his mind, it's, he's, he's winning in his mind. Yeah, he's not gonna, if he has the legs, trust me, he's not gonna be, he's not gonna be told, hey, del Toro has to win because he's in pink. No, I use is going for it.
- [00:45]
Spencer Martin
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin, I'm here with Johan Brunel. We are breaking down stage 12 of the Giro d', Italia, which was won by Olav Koi in a sprint over Casper, Ben Uden and Ben Turner. And then we'll predict tomorrow's stage 13. Before we do that, let's walk through. Not the most action packed stage of the race, you'd say. Started off with some climbs, came out of the Po Valley around Modena and then we raced towards Viadana. The only action really along the route was Isaac del Toro taking third in the Red Bull kilometer sprint. Right as they caught the breakaway. It was kind of early to catch it, like 30 something kilometers. No one else even really contested it. Telling us that Primoz Ragwich and Juan Uso are probably racing against each other while del Toro picks up these time bonuses. Then they come into the final kilometer. Wout van Aert's on the front, you think, well, he's there a little bit too early. But no, he pulls Coy all the way to the point where they get jumped by Casper Van Uden ends up being the perfect leadout for Coy who comes around van Uden for the win.
- [01:54]
Unknown
Kind of pretty straightforward.
- [01:56]
Spencer Martin
Probably the most straightforward stage we've had.
- [01:58]
Unknown
Of the Giro so far.
- [01:59]
Spencer Martin
Johan, what were your major takeaways from the stage?
- [02:03]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, as you said, Spencer, you know, a typical three man breakaway. Very easy for the other teams with sprinters to control. So we saw Alpecin and Visma and Decathlon basically control the three man breakaway each with one rider. You know, it doesn't take any more. The next thing is what happened basically is, yeah, as you said, del Toro jumping for, for the sprint. As I said, I've said it already a few Times, but he has unbelievable legs. Everything goes smooth, easy. Yeah. It doesn't mean a lot. You know, what he did today. But. And you can say, you know, why. Why waste that energy? He didn't waste that much energy. You know, he. I think he. He came out of a corner and then. And was by himself, and nobody else followed, so it's only two seconds. I just. I just think that this guy becomes more and more, is probably not going to win. But, man, I don't exclude it anymore. A guy, I mean, he's only 21, takes it day by day. Nobody knows how far he can get. He doesn't know. But the fact that he takes it day by day, he grows and grows and grows into that pink jersey. And the easiness with which I see him ride on climbs through the peloton, fighting for position. Yeah, he's becoming a serious candidate. Said that Del Toro can win this Giro. This guy has already won the Tour and the Giro. Right. Of course. I think they have some, you know, some relationship. They're both Latin American. They obviously hang out in the peloton. I mean, whenever they can. Today, for example, was a great day to hang out in the peloton. When these three men breakaway, and in the peloton, it doesn't go that fast. But I saw the reporter presenting Bernal's statement to Del Toro, and he said, wow, Bernal says that he's my idol. When he was a junior, he looked up to Bernal. You know, he was his idol. Probably a guy. He had posters in his. In his room. And now this guy.
- [04:39]
Spencer Martin
This is weird, because he's not that old.
- [04:41]
Johan Bruyneel
No.
- [04:41]
Spencer Martin
Like, how is this happening?
- [04:42]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, no, but Spencer, listen, if you're. If you're. If you're 15, 16, then. And Bernal must have been 21. He's right. Yeah.
- [04:52]
Spencer Martin
He's like eight years older than.
- [04:54]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. Bernal was winning the tour with 22 years old.
- [04:58]
Spencer Martin
Wow. Yeah.
- [04:59]
Johan Bruyneel
Right. So, yeah, he was surprised. And he said, oh, wow, that's great. You know, he said, I don't want to be too ambitious. I'm here. You know, we ride as a team, but, man, day by day goes by. And we've seen it in the past. We've seen it in the past. Remember, for example, what's his name again? Damio Damiano Kunigo. A long time ago, similar. Similar situation, you know, was also very young, 22, probably 23 maybe. But, you know, he was in the pink, and he just kept growing, and when it became stronger and became unbeatable, Actually in this, in the zero he won. I remember. So we'll see, you know, we'll see this zero. Of course there's still a lot of moments to come. And then, yeah, you know, then the sprint, that was the next thing. As expected, great win for Olaf Koi with an unbelievably strong Vanart and Eduardo Afini. You know, they were both. I mean if you have those two guys, that's basically a whole team as your lead out Train Afini was the, he lives there in that area. He did a really, really good pull. And then Von Aert. When I saw Von Aert come to the, to the front with 1k to go, I said wow, that's too early, that's too early. But man, he went so fast. He went unbelievably fast. He went through that corner with Koi. I mean there you see how Koi is a master at positioning himself. Initially he was not on the wheel of Vanart. He was like there was two riders in between. And just before he went to that wheel, Vanart accelerated a little bit. He looked back and it was basically single file from then on the first 10 riders there was almost no fighting for position in that corner. Coming out of the corner, Vanart accelerates and takes it very, very far. I have a stat here. We can put up the picture which was published by villain. The last 54 seconds of an art were 760 watts average with a turn.
- [07:26]
Spencer Martin
You know, zeros from the turn.
- [07:28]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, with a turn in there. So, so yeah, last, the last kilometer was average power 760 watts, maximum power 1320, average speed 57.7 because of the turn and maximum speed 65. So not one of the fastest sprints. You know, the real fast sprints are 70 and above 73, 74 if it's really fast. But that's in ideal conditions. This was a pure sprint and Visma was the only team with a lead out and they did it perfect. It was lined up. Everybody else was fighting for the wheels and so yeah, I mean well deserved and great to see Olaf Koi win again. His 40th victory for a 20 year, 23 year olds. 23 year old guy. 40th win professionals.
- [08:24]
Spencer Martin
He's leaving, right? He's going somewhere else.
- [08:26]
Johan Bruyneel
He is leaving and it's not confirmed. But unofficially it's decathlon.
- [08:32]
Spencer Martin
Nice pickup. Yeah, I, I hesitate to even like spend too much time on this because there's almost no lessons to be learned because what wow. Vinhart did by the way, a horsepower is like 740 watts. So Vinhart did more than a horsepower for the final minute. When you're training, it's like. It's called the Stallion Club, if you can do more than a horsepower for a minute. And like most people, you just. You, like, build a month around hitting a horsepower for a minute. Van Aert's doing it at the end of a stage in the middle of a Grand Tour, which is super impressive with a turn in there. But he hits the front with the K to go too far right. I thought the same thing, Johan. You're like, well, this isn't going to work. But it was smart because he almost used the turn as his end point. Like, I just have to get to the turn. I go faster. The turn, they use it to their advantage because him and Coy created a gap during the. The hairpin. And then after, like, you know, what is it? Two, three seconds of rest. Then Van Art's like, okay, I'll give it a little bit more. Casper van Uden, there's a gap in. Turner actually doesn't get gapped from ineos, which is why he ends up on the podium. Casper van Uden, like, sprints into the slipstream and then goes around him. I think the right decision, even though it was a little far out, like 250 meters out. But anytime you have a chance to sprint into a slipstream like that, you probably should go around because you're traveling so much faster than the other people when you get by them. Coy comes around him, but he holds on for a second. It's pretty good. Could have won that stage if Koi wasn't like, if Koi wasn't Coy, he wins that stage.
- [09:58]
Johan Bruyneel
And. And. And also, Spencer, if Van Uden is not. Because Van Uden was on a gap after the turn.
- [10:04]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, if he's.
- [10:05]
Johan Bruyneel
If he's not on a gap, he could have. I mean, if, if, if. Right, but it's.
- [10:10]
Spencer Martin
It's true what you say.
- [10:11]
Johan Bruyneel
He did the right thing because he had to sprint to the wheel. So he came with more speed. And then you get into the slipstream, then you have to go, listen, this guy, man, it's a guy. It's a name we need to remember because he has a sprint of 300 meters. Incredibly, incredibly steady. Once he goes, he doesn't slow down. He's beaten by Koi because Koi was just faster. But to go from this far and still finish second against guys like Pedersen and Groves and Freda, Yeah, that's also still young, you know, not. He's also 23, I guess.
- [10:52]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Really young.
- [10:54]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [10:54]
Spencer Martin
And he gets a second, which is a big deal. I mean, just, just a big deal in general. I don't think he, I think that's only a second World Tour podium of his career. But then it's also big for his team because that's a lot of UCI points. So going early and as we've seen at this Euro, it's usually the rider that goes first that wins. So no shame in doing that. We still have this run of. It's not rocket science. The rider who's positioned in second wheel with a really strong lead out rider in front of them tends to win these sprints because they're not fighting. If you look at the last K, like Pederson and, and Kaden Groves are just fighting, you know, fighting for the win, for the wheels. They're in the wind. It's like, that's going to hurt your sprint.
- [11:32]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [11:33]
Spencer Martin
So, yeah, get a really strong guy like Matthias by check or Wild Van Art to lead you out and you'll win sprints. That's, that's, that's what we have learned so far. Not exactly useful to a lot of teams, but I thought it was, I mean, super impressive from Ben Aert. Like, he's back, he's over whatever sickness.
- [11:50]
Johan Bruyneel
He had and also, you know, see how happy he was. It was the plan, you know, it's, it's always great if you can execute the plan exactly as, as it's talked about in the bus in the morning. Right. Or in the, in the, in the evening. I don't know when they do their meetings, but normally before the stage in a, stage in a Grand Tour and they executed perfectly. You know, they had one rider, was it Gross Wake, Gross Wake. Who helped these other two teams. And then they had Afini and Vanart. A little thing. I mean, it's a funny, funny thing. I mean, it's, it's actually ridiculous that a rider, I mean, in this case Van Aert had to think about that. So you have the sprint, right? Van Aert was on the right completely not minding his own business. Didn't bother anybody. And so he was looking. When Coy raises his arms, Vanhart wants to raise his arm. And he put it down straight away. Thinking about the fine, thinking about the fine that the UCI gives to teammates who celebrate the victory of a teammate. Ridiculous. So even Art was, was very professional. He, he was excited. But he, straight away, he said, he said, okay, I don't want to pay 500 Swiss francs.
- [13:11]
Spencer Martin
Well, it goes out of the pot. They gotta build. It's like, you see these breakaways, like, today, you're like, why is anyone up there? It's like, these guys are making money. You're getting cash. Every time you go through those checkpoints, you got to get that. That kitty up by the end of the race. But. But just my thoughts on the GC you were talking about that earlier. Clearly, two seconds is not going to decide the race. So those. That sprint is kind of insignificant, but we're getting to the point where he's racking up a lot of bonus seconds. He has 30 so far. Primo has two. Like, is there a chance he beats Primus rock, which by 28 seconds? There is for sure. Like, he is racking them up quite substantially. And, like, another thing I'm. I'm thinking about, he's 33 seconds, so it's like, oh, he's only 33 seconds in the lead. That's not that high. But he's 69 seconds to the next non UAE rider. Like, that's starting to get significant. 111 to Simon Yates. 126 to Primos. My concern here is actually not concerned. This would be fascinating to see. Like, what if they can't get them? But I. I uso can. And then we were with, like, a VTA 2023 situation where the only rider capable of mowing you down as your own teammate. What then happens like that?
- [14:24]
Johan Bruyneel
Then are you so doing it for sure is going for it? Yeah. Yeah. He's the. He. He's the winner. He's the leader. In his mind, it's. He's. He's winning in his mind. Yeah, he's not gonna. If he has the legs, trust me, he's not gonna be. No, he's not gonna be told, hey, Del Toro has to win because he's in pink. No, I use. Is going for it.
- [14:50]
Spencer Martin
I kind of like that. I mean, I like to see the best rider winning, but it's generally not a great look when you're. I mean, you know how that was crazy, like, the fanfare around when Primos and Jonas were dropping in the jersey at the vault that, like, did not go over well, so would be fascinating to see that. And, I mean, obviously, if Del Toro gets second at this race, that's a really big deal. If he gets fifth of this race, it's a big deal. The guy's never had a. A significant GC result in the Grand Tour before, so.
- [15:17]
Johan Bruyneel
Right. It's only. It's only a second it's only.
- [15:20]
Spencer Martin
Come on, Del Toro. What's going on? You finished 36th and one grand tour at the age of 20. Geez. On behind Pagacha already. But any other thoughts on this stage before we move on?
- [15:31]
Johan Bruyneel
I guess that's it, Spencer. Not much else to say. You know, it's one of those stages we know you kind of know what's going to happen. And it was a great sprint. Yeah. And, and, and I think, I think Koi is probably one of the three fastest sprinters in this. In this race. Maybe one of the two fastest printers in this race. And so it's. It's only right that he. He wins. He. I mean, not that. Not that I think it's gonna happen, but he stays in contention for the points jersey. You know, he. He reduces the difference with Pedersen a bit. So Pedersen cannot, Cannot slow down. You know, I mean, he had. He does have a good cushion, but. And there's. There are stages where Pedersen is going to score points and Koi doesn't. But that race is not over.
- [16:19]
Spencer Martin
You know, it's really not. I mean, kind of hurt him is the Napoli stage because there was no points at the finish there. So like Pedersen crashed in that stage. Who knows how he would have sprinted. Coy got a pretty high finish on that day, but he doesn't get any points from that. But yeah, you're right, he does close that gap quite a bit. Um, another thing to note is Vanart's max power 7, 13, 20. So like when you look at these lead out riders, like, that's a lot of watts. Like go out tonight and try to do 1300 watts on your. On your little evening ride. It's not easy to do. Like, it looks like you're not going.
- [16:54]
Johan Bruyneel
That fast, but never in my life can I get that. What's your maximum power, Spencer?
- [17:00]
Spencer Martin
You know, my, my right now or I mean probably at my best like 15, 1600.
- [17:07]
Johan Bruyneel
I. I didn't know how to look for this, but my son. My son showed me. Let me see. Oh man, this is bad. 904.
- [17:29]
Spencer Martin
It's hard to do. Go out and do 900 watts right now. It doesn't.
- [17:32]
Johan Bruyneel
Hey, listen, I'm. I'm almost 61 years old. I think that's good. Fine. I don't, I don't have. I. I did more once in my life.
- [17:41]
Spencer Martin
The thing I find that become like I could probably get close to 1500 if I really had to right now. But you know, I used to be able to hold like 1300 watts or 15 seconds. But now I could probably do it for like four seconds. That's unless you really work on that.
- [17:56]
Johan Bruyneel
Let me tell you, when age catches up with you, it's, It's. It's depressing the numbers. It's better not to look at them.
- [18:04]
Spencer Martin
900 watts.
- [18:05]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [18:05]
Spencer Martin
In your 60s, that's got to be. It's not much world class.
- [18:10]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [18:11]
Spencer Martin
Well, anything else on. On this stage? Well, you know, it was an action packed stage. When we're going through our max watts from.
- [18:21]
Johan Bruyneel
We need. I need to. I need to check your. Yes, yes, yes. Your stats on Strava. Spencer. I think I'm catching up with you a bit.
- [18:29]
Spencer Martin
This has been a. Yeah, I've not been riding much this week, but.
- [18:32]
Johan Bruyneel
But you're gonna ride a lot in the summer? I suspect so, yeah. But we're there. I'm not too far off. I'm not too far off. I'm working on. We'll keep it. We'll keep it close until. Until December.
- [18:45]
Spencer Martin
I have to hope that Zwift bike is in the studio. I mean, rack up those miles in Watopia. Anything else on stage 12? Johan, before we move on?
- [18:55]
Johan Bruyneel
No. No.
- [18:57]
Spencer Martin
All right, so let's take a quick ad break and then we will predict. Super hard to predict stage 13. Kind of an interesting stage that I hadn't quite noticed until recently.
- [19:05]
Johan Bruyneel
Everybody.
- [19:05]
Unknown
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- [19:07]
Spencer Martin
No doubt you've heard of VPNs, but.
- [19:09]
Unknown
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- [19:10]
Spencer Martin
Well, a VPN is a service that.
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- [19:31]
Spencer Martin
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- [19:42]
Spencer Martin
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- [19:42]
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- [20:39]
Spencer Martin
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- [22:46]
Spencer Martin
Okay, Johan, stage 13 tomorrow is 180 kilometers. It's through the Po Valley from Rovigo to Vincenza and it's, it's like really flat area, but they find seemingly every climb they can along the way. So there's a few categorized climbs, but the highlights are this final circuit at the end where they have 1, 2, 3 categorized climbs with one that seems to be uncategorized but is 2k long at 6.6% average and has bonus seconds at the top. They do the final climb twice. They, they go up and over the first time, then they finish at the top on the second time. It doesn't look that hard when you just glance at it like, okay, a kilometer at 7.6% but when you, when you zoom in on it, the last 700 meters averages 10% with a 12% max. So what went from what I thought would be an uphill sprint stage starts to get a little bit more interesting in GC terms the closer you look. The odds have been changing as we've been doing the show. I'll read this is from Unibet in Europe and there is some slightly different prices on US Books. I'll call out when I need to, but Isaac del Toro is the favorite at plus 400. Mads Pedersen plus 400 as well. Wout Benart plus 500 Tom Pickock plus 1200 Primus Raglich plus 1400 Juana you so plus 1800 Mateus Vadsek plus 1800 Giulio Ciccone plus 2200 Eduardo Zambanini plus 2500 Andrea Vandrame plus 3300 Corbin Strong plus 3300. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But Johan, how do you think this, this is going to play out and who's going to win this thing?
- [24:23]
Johan Bruyneel
Also, Spencer noting, It's. There's a 20 kilometer circuit at the end and, and I just looked at the map, it looks kind of twisty. So it's going to be fast. You know, if they, first of all, they're going to come up the finishing climb and then they do a 20 kilometer circuit or. I mean, yeah, I think it's 20 kilometers, so it's going to be stretched out. You know, I mean, first of all, the first time of the climb, it's 10%. It's, you know, the sprinters are not going to be there anymore and UAE has such a strong team that in my opinion they will set a fast pace. So I don't think anybody has a chance to really get away. Maybe an attack a la Richard Carapas or something could be an option, but I don't think so. You know, this, this, this is going to be UAE drilling it with the strength they have. And I think, you know, on the last climb, it's going to be amongst, amongst the GC guys and some punchers. Personally, I think it's maybe a risk, but I think a guy like Pedersen has a chance tomorrow. You know, one kilometer, 10% he can do that. I mean, he's the second favorite on the books. It's for a reason. So I'm gonna, I'm gonna go for Matt's Pedersen tomorrow to win the stage.
- [25:58]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's in true, in true jiro fashion, it kind of the, the gradients appear to change depending on what book you're looking at. So one of them has it at 8.9 with a 4.6% grade before the finish. So it starts to seem like that could suit Mads Betterson a little bit better, which is probably why the odds are changing so fast. I don't disagree. I think he could win this stage. The only thing is the multiple climbs, the twisty running, as you say. I'm looking at it right now. Just with that, I mean, it's tough. This is a really tough one to predict. I think I would probably go. Isaac del Toro, the co favorite at +400 just because, I mean, man, the uphill finish, he didn't win it. But the one where he got second on stage 11 looks so easy to him. Like, that was, that was wild. That was a harder stage than tomorrow is going to be, but just being with his team probably at the front, and then it's going to be a lot easier for him to be where he needs to be than Pedersen, who's going to have to give everything, just even get to the final few hundred meters. But I'm not saying Matt's better than can't win, but I would just give the edge to Del Toro because I think it is going to be a hard run in.
- [27:08]
Johan Bruyneel
It is. You know, if you look at, I mean, I look here at the. I don't know if it's the official road book, the Giro road book profile, but yeah, it's like a 2% when you get into the last kilometer and then it's 10. There's a maximum of 12% at some point with about 500 meters to go. Yeah. Listen, if there's one guy who beats better Sen is Del Toro. Yeah.
- [27:44]
Spencer Martin
Because even if you start thinking the math on this, so 700 meters at 10%. I mean, what, what do we think that is time wise? That's like 20 seconds, 30 seconds, right?
- [27:57]
Johan Bruyneel
What do you mean?
- [27:59]
Spencer Martin
Like, how long is that going to take them or 40 seconds to complete?
- [28:01]
Johan Bruyneel
Oh, no, no, no, no, no, no. It's going to take them a lot more. Spencer. 700 meters at 10%. That's, that's two minutes.
- [28:10]
Spencer Martin
Two minutes?
- [28:11]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. Yeah, for sure.
- [28:12]
Spencer Martin
Well, even at two minutes. So, yeah, like, what's the two minute power differential between Pederson and Del Toro? Pederson can probably put out a lot of power for two minutes.
- [28:23]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [28:24]
Spencer Martin
Probably enough to overcome the watt per kilo disadvantage.
- [28:26]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. But still, you know, it's. They need. They do it twice and then this, this climb before in the middle there, that's, that's not easy. You know, I think that's going to be, that's going to be Mats Patterson's problem. The, the Red Bull, The Red Bull climb, because there's a sprint there. It's this, what's it called, Arcuno or Arcunano climb. So that's two, two and a half kilometers average, 5%. But there's 1km in the middle, which is 9% and there's bonus seconds on top. So I think that's the difficult part for Mats Petersen, where it's also difficult.
- [29:14]
Spencer Martin
For Del Toro is if he sprints for those seconds, then he's sprinting twice. He's so strong right now, it doesn't.
- [29:21]
Johan Bruyneel
Matter for he, he Del Toro can do this.
- [29:24]
Spencer Martin
That is crazy. Yeah, he's very good. I do think Matt's Pedersen is probably One of the only riders that can challenge him. I. I know we just talked about Wildfin Art. I don't know about Wout van Art on this. This seems. This would be ridiculous if you, like, this is so hard and against a rider like Del Toro, I guess he technically beat him, but that was a much easier final pitch than they're gonna have tomorrow.
- [29:45]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. If you. You know, if you think about the Walt Vanart we have seen, like the. The prime Wild Vanart of the Tour de France, I'd say no, absolutely no doubt he can win this, but this is not the same yet. You know, he's. He's still improving. And. Yeah, no, on a climb like this, I think it's going to be very difficult for my second choice. It's also a risky pick, but especially because he's shown already some unbelievable form is Matthias Vatsek. He's especially because he's plus 1800 and he can do this. He has the power to. To do these 1km climbs at 10%.
- [30:32]
Unknown
Yeah, I actually.
- [30:34]
Spencer Martin
I think I. @ + 1800. That's kind of wild. He's down there. I do think he could win. I do kind of worry, and we don't really know, like, what. Where he is right now. I do. At some point, does he have to pay the toll?
- [30:46]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. Yeah, exactly. You're right. So. Yes, and you're right. These guys are gonna fade. You know, they came in. They came into the first week, like, all guns blazing. Yeah, it's gonna. It's gonna fade away at some point. Their. Their power and their. Their punch. But, man, you know, that. That stage where he. Where he bridged up to those riders, to those three riders. Well, it was. Yeah, it was the gravel stage.
- [31:15]
Spencer Martin
No, Stage nine.
- [31:16]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [31:17]
Spencer Martin
It was impressive.
- [31:17]
Johan Bruyneel
He was strong there, man. He was so strong and uphill. He was strong. He paid for his big effort, you know, because he had to chase really hard, but if he still has a little bit of that left, he could. Yeah, I mean, that. That's a guy who really would deserve to win a stage, man.
- [31:35]
Spencer Martin
Well, you almost could see Pedersen leading him out if he feels good.
- [31:39]
Johan Bruyneel
Because also, I mean, it would be stage with number five. Whether Patterson or Watsek wins for Little Track is maybe a bit too much.
- [31:48]
Spencer Martin
Come on, guys, settle down. It's too much. I think I. In this, I'm hesitant to even pick them. But Tom Pickock, just because he's + 1200. He's + 1000 on BET 365. 1200 on Unibet. That's a pretty good price for someone he wasn't. He's not like I. The thing I worry about Tom Pickock is, is he just going to always get to these finales where someone else is faster like Del Toro or Pedersen, and then he can't. Can't get in solo breakaways because he's still up in the GC technically, so. But the thing on Pickock is eventually. I just feel like eventually he will win a stage, and this is, like, this would be the perfect stage for him, because if you're Mads Pedersen, maybe it's a little too hard. If you're Del Toro, you're focused on other things like the bonus sprint, and that might leave enough room for Tom Pickock to come through. He's extremely talented writer, and sound like he's. He's not in terrible shape if he's still high up in the GC here. So, yeah, I'm gonna go. Pick is my wild card.
- [32:47]
Johan Bruyneel
Okay. All right. And nobody. Funny, nobody picks Primos.
- [32:52]
Spencer Martin
I think why. There's like, an Andreas Clear quote. He's like. It's just been stuck in my head for 20 years where he's like, we do our race. Not riding now. It's like, I think Primo's wins the race. Not riding now. I don't think the uphill finish on stage 13, it's a little explosive, even for Prime Primos. It's a little, like, Sprint D against some really fast guys. I don't think. I don't think he wins this.
- [33:16]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. Okay.
- [33:17]
Spencer Martin
We'll see.
- [33:18]
Johan Bruyneel
We'll see. I mean. Yeah.
- [33:21]
Spencer Martin
I don't know that you say it like, maybe Prime V. Like, think of 20, 21 Vuelta Primos. Does he win this? Maybe. But some of these guys are so fast.
- [33:30]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. And also, you know, it's. It's. It's. It's a hard finale, but the rest of the stage is not hard. So, you know, it's not going to be like everybody gets to the final worn out, you know, which is in the favor of a guy like Peterson and Vladic, actually, because the state. The rest of the stage is not super hard.
- [33:49]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. And if you remember this last. I was just going through it last night. I'd kind of forgotten some of it. The last Giro he won, he was so subdued through a lot of that race and, you know, just kind of trusted that the time would come and seemed like he understood how hard the race was gonna be at the end. And maybe other people didn't fully understand that assignment. And I think Primos thinks the same. This. I'm just looking at this third week right now. This thing is brutal. Like, I think Primo's is in a little bit of hibernation mode.
- [34:20]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, I agree. I agree. He's banking everything on the last week, and he knows what he's doing.
- [34:27]
Spencer Martin
All right, Johan, anything else before we take off?
- [34:30]
Johan Bruyneel
That's it for me, Spencer.
- [34:31]
Spencer Martin
All right, thanks. And we'll be back tomorrow to talk about how the stage plays out.
- [34:36]
Johan Bruyneel
Okay, thanks.
- [34:37]
Spencer Martin
Okay.
- [34:37]
Johan Bruyneel
See ya.