Giro d'Italia Stage 14 Analysis & Stage 15 Preview | THEMOVE+

Summary

THEMOVE: Giro d'Italia Stage 14 Analysis & Stage 15 Preview | THEMOVE+

Release Date: May 24, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Guests: Spencer Martin and Johan

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1. Introduction

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan delve deep into the intricacies of Giro d'Italia's Stage 14, offering a comprehensive analysis of the day's events and setting the stage for Stage 15. Skipping over the advertisements, the conversation kicks off at 00:49, focusing solely on the race dynamics and strategic maneuvers that unfolded.

2. Stage 14 Breakdown

Spencer Martin initiates the discussion by recounting the day's race trajectory:

"It was a 195-kilometer stage that I thought would be routine, perhaps ending in a bunch sprint. However, the day took an unexpected turn with a significant super breakaway led by Wout Van Art and Casper Askren." (01:26)

The initial breakaway saw aggressive participation from teams like Tudor and VF Bardiani, leading to a frantic chase. Despite the efforts, the break was eventually caught. The stage intensified with shifting dynamics, including a sudden rain shower and a crash that significantly impacted the General Classification (GC) contenders.

3. Caspar Askren’s Impressive Stage Win

A pivotal moment in the discussion centers around Caspar Askren's stage victory:

"Askren holds on for a really incredible stage win. Super impressive stage. When he was actually gaining time in the final kilometers, I thought he had no chance at the middle." (03:00)

Johan highlights the rarity and significance of Askren's win:

"Today was a stage win in real Askren fashion. Purely, he was the motor of those three guys. He did the majority of the work." (04:36)

They commend Askren's strategic prowess and physical endurance, noting his ability to seize opportunities even in seemingly routine stages.

4. Impact on the General Classification

The episode delves into the repercussions of the crashes on the GC:

"The fact of the day is another crash which impacts heavily the GC. There are two big crashes—the gravel stage and today's stage—that have significantly influenced the GC standings." (14:00)

Key takeaways include:

• Isaac Del Toro and Richard Carapaz remained largely unscathed, with Del Toro extending his lead.
• Primoz Roglic and Juan USO found themselves in a chase group, losing valuable time.
• Antonio Tiberi suffered the most, losing approximately 1 minute and 44 seconds (16:03).

Spencer reflects on the day’s outcome:

"If Del Toro can't make up six seconds, Simon Yates wins this Giro because Del Toro collapses and ISO can't make up six seconds on him. That's a bigger problem." (17:34)

The discussion underscores the unpredictable nature of cycling races, where crashes and weather conditions can dramatically alter the standings.

5. Corrections and Updates

The hosts address an earlier mistake regarding the location of the Mountain Bike World Cup:

"We mentioned the mountain bike World Cup race in Novo Mesto. There's actually two Novomestos. This one is in the Czech Republic." (23:48)

Additionally, they clarify that Matthew Vanderpool did not race in the short track due to insufficient points, with Christopher Blevins and Puck securing victories in the men's and women's categories, respectively.

6. Stage 15 Preview

Looking ahead, Stage 15 promises to be a 220-kilometer challenge featuring:

• Monte Grappa: A 25-kilometer climb at an average of 5.7%.
• Additional Climbs: A subsequent 16.6-kilometer climb at 5.3% with a bonus second sprint.
• Asiago Plateau: Rolling terrain reminiscent of the 2017 Giro, potentially setting up a GC group finish.

Spencer outlines the stage's demands:

"Monte Grappa is a long, arduous climb that will test the riders' endurance and strategic planning." (28:09)

7. Predictions and Strategic Insights

Johan shares his expectations for Stage 15, suggesting a breakaway victory and naming Wout Poles as a potential stage winner:

"My pick tomorrow for the win from the breakaway is Wout Poles. He's an experienced rider who knows how to manage breakaways effectively." (30:25)

Spencer, however, leans towards Roman Bardet, praising his recent form and motivation:

"Roman Bardet looks very fit and motivated. I think he could win the stage." (31:45)

The conversation also touches upon the strategic decisions of teams, particularly the UAE team's confidence in Del Toro, and the implications of weather conditions on the upcoming stage.

8. Closing Remarks

As the episode wraps up, the hosts mention the weather forecast, with a 20% chance of precipitation and reminisce about the unpredictability of cycling races:

"Mountain stages with bad weather are never fun. Let's hope they stay dry for Stage 15." (35:36)

They also provide a brief update on the podcast schedule, noting a rest day show on Monday before returning to regular programming on Tuesday.

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Notable Quotes:

• "Caspar Askren holds on for a really incredible stage win. Super impressive stage." – Spencer Martin (03:00)
• "Today was a stage win in real Askren fashion. Purely, he was the motor of those three guys." – Johan (04:36)
• "The fact of the day is another crash which impacts heavily the GC." – Johan (14:00)
• "Roman Bardet looks very fit and motivated. I think he could win the stage." – Spencer Martin (31:45)

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This detailed analysis provides listeners with a thorough understanding of the pivotal moments in Stage 14, the shifting dynamics in the General Classification, and insightful predictions for the challenging Stage 15. Whether you're a seasoned cycling enthusiast or a casual fan, this episode offers valuable perspectives from insiders deeply entrenched in the racing action.

Transcript

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan]

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[Johan]

Fiverr.Com the fact of the day is another crash which impacts heavily the gc. You know, if you look at the GC today where it stands, it's two big crashes who have made the stage. The crashes in the gravel stage and today's stage that have impacted ggc. And the majority of, I mean the bulk of the wins and losses in time come from those two stages and those two crashes. So that's unfortunate. But you know, that's part of bike racing.

[Spencer Martin]

Everybody. Welcome back to the movie Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin, I'm here with the Ohan Branil and we are breaking down stage 14 of the Giro d' Italia before predicting tomorrow's stage 15. Before we do that, let's walk through what happened early in today's stage. It was 195 kilometer stage I thought would be a routine boring one from the Pope Plain of Italy into the light hills of Slovenia that we might get a little just routine bunch sprint. But no, the day started off odd. There was a big super breakaway with Wout Van Art, Casper Askren, a bunch of other strong riders up there. Of course the teams like Tudor and VF Bardiani who missed it, didn't like that, chased it down. It was a frantic chase. They finally get caught. Casper Askren goes clear again, this time with a smaller group of you you'd say like more routine breakawayist like Mirko Mastriati, Mastery Masterati on Pulte visit Malta Mirko Maestri and then Martin Marc. What's his last Marucelli on VF Bardiani, VF group Bardiani and they never really got much of a gap, Johan. They were just being held at about a minute and a half, and I thought, well, this is it. This is over. Then it starts to rain. Then they get into this little finishing circuit. And you texted me this could get a little sketchy. And right after you texted me that, there's a crash in the group right at the front of the group, and. And a lot of GC riders are caught up in it. Isaac Del Toro and Richard Carapaz are at the front. They jump back into the lead group, which I guess Visma got through almost unscathed. They don't miss a beat because they have Olaf Koi. They've been chasing all day. They want to get to that finish line and contest the sprint. But Primo's Roglic, Juan USO and a bunch of other GC contenders take some longer to get up. They're now in a chase group. And then we have the Visma group with Del Toro chasing the breakaway, which is soon just to be Casper Askren. Casper Askren because he drops everybody else. And then you have the Roglich Juan USO group chasing them, and then behind them you have the Tibery Antonio Tiberi group chasing the Roglich group. So we have multiple pursuits going on. What happens is the Visma group runs out of riders, and as soon as they do that, the. The chase loses some juice. Askren holds on for really incredible stage win. Like, super impressive stage. When he was actually gaining time in the final kilometers, I thought he had no chance at the middle. In the middle, middle of that stage. Juana USO loses time to his teammate Isaac Del Toro in the race lead, who just keeps gaining time every day. It's becoming actually quite impressive how much time this guy can gain on seemingly in innocuous stages. And Primos Roglic loses time with Juana uso. But before we get into the GC stuff and the crashes and whatnot, Johan, let's talk about Caspar Askren for a second. His first win since 2023. I actually just saw a thread on Reddit. It's like, what happened to breakaways and grand Tours? Like, we have really haven't had one since. Since Askren did it in the Tour de France a few years ago. But this was vintage breakaway. Didn't have much of a gap. Like, how did they hold on? Like, I guess they got lucky with the crash, but still, like, yeah, well, you know, lucky.

[Johan]

You know, a guy like Ask Green. It's true. He won his last stage in 2020. Three, if I'm not mistaken, it was a stage in the Tour de France also. You know, miss or hit or miss at the last moment. He won from a sprint. But, but, you know, a rider like that, from that kind of caliber, you can never really write them off. You know, when they have their day, they're able to do some incredible things. And today was one of them. You know, today was a stage, a stage win in real Ask Green fashion. You know, pure, purely, you know, he was the motor of those three guys. He did the majority of the work, you could say. Well, you know, the, the, the crash contributed a bit. I don't think so, actually, because, you know, they also had to be careful, the three guys in front. It was also sketchy through those corners on the circuit. And as soon as the crash happened, I mean, Visma went to the front and I mean, they were, they were at the front. They, it was clear goal was to try to win the stage with Olaf Koi. And of course, you know, they, they didn't look back. There was only Groves who was there from all the other sprinters. Plus they had Simon Yates and they were already on their mission. It's not like, you know, the race was full on. It's not like they, they took advantage of the, the crash. They were doing already what they were doing. So I've seen some debates on social media, you know, well, they shouldn't have done this. They should have waited. No, I think they did what they had to do. There' absolutely no blame on, on Visma at all. But yeah, I mean, Ask Green. Today was, as you say, vintage as Green. It's been a while, but today was, you know, he's a huge engine. He looked great. He's probably also pretty good in the bad weather. It was not, it was not. I mean, it was not extremely bad weather, but I saw a lot of guys with rain jackets on at the beginning of the stage, so. Or in the middle of the stage, so, you know, it was not, it was not hot. And yeah, this was, this was a perfect stage for him. At the end he was motoring. I mean, he was taking time on, on, on a guy like Walt von Aert. And then at the end, even Simon Yates himself had to pull for Olaf Koi because he was the only guy left and he was, he was, he kept gaining time after having been in the breakaway the whole stage. So, you know, hats off to him was an incredible, incredible stage win for ASC Green. Long time since he hadn't won. But, you know, once in A while these guys pull off something incredible. Today was one of those days.

[Spencer Martin]

Joe's last three World Tour wins are Girard Italia stage Tour de France STAGE Tour of FLANDERS yeah, that's not, let's not forget Spencer.

[Johan]

Let's not forget this guy beat Matthew Vanderpool in a one on one sprint in the Tour of Flanders. And I guess it was 20, 21. Right. So it's, I mean it's, it's four years ago, but still this was already more or less prime Matthew Vanderpool back then. And because I think van der Poel had one already. Tour of Flanders that was champion. Yeah, yeah. And as Green also was second in the Tour of Flanders another year. So you know, it's, he has, he's still a great writer. It's just, you know, we just would like to see him a little bit more consistent. But today he had a great day and deserved that win.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, yeah, the cons, he's clear because he's clearly great. Like you don't do what he did today. As you said, wout Bernard was pulling as hard as he could to the point that, you know, he blew up and he wasn't really bringing back Askren. I think he would, he wrote him off like did you see. Kind of was on the descent. He just like rode the other two off his wheel with 6K to go. 14 second gap, you think, well, 6K to go, 14 seconds. I don't know if that's enough. But the weird thing is this gap like wasn't coming down in a linear fashion. Like with. I'm just looking back now with you know, 30, with 45k to go, it's a minute 22 and then it goes, starts dropping fast to the point where it's down to 45 seconds with 30k to go. But then by the time the crash occurs and they get it's like 54 seconds. So it's going back up and then it's coming down fast, but then it doesn't stay down, you know.

[Johan]

I know.

[Spencer Martin]

I wonder if Visma was even getting concerned before the crash that they were like, that's why they were at the front and that's why they didn't even pause when the crash happened because like we got to get this guy because we might not get him. And if you notice he was wearing an arrow helmet, like a super arrow helmet. So clearly this was, this was a plan they had.

[Johan]

Yeah, they had, they were definitely prepared for this, that's for sure. Yeah, I saw a message somewhere from the sport director Let me see if I can find it. Yeah, I mean, it said, okay, this is the plan. It was a message he sent to the team. This is the plan. I've motivated Casper. I think he can go in the break. There's. There's not a lot of wind. The team, the teams will not chase too hard and he can pull it off at the end. So, yeah, they had this plan from the start, and I'm sure they even.

[Spencer Martin]

Looked at the circuit and thought, there's a possibility this isn't clean.

[Johan]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I mean, the circuit, you know, of course, you know, these are circumstances, right? The weather, you can't predict this. But this was dangerous, Spencer. I mean, remember, I sent you a message. Hey, this is going to be tricky. I think you just got the text and there they went on the floor. So I think this is obviously a part of the great win victory of Caspar Hasbreen. The fact of the day is another crash which impacts heavily the gc. If you look at the GC today, where it stands, it's two big crashes who have made the crashes in the gravel stage and today's stage that have impacted gcc. And the majority of. I mean, the bulk of the wins and losses in time come from those two stages and those two crashes. So that's unfortunate. But, you know, that's part of bike racing. And we have to say that a guy like Del Toro, as young as he may be, he is racing like an experienced veteran. You know, he's always where he has to be. He's always in good position. Now, talking about the crash, Spencer, I would like to make a little pause here and, and look at this picture, which I've, you know, I've screenshotted it. It's not high definition, but if you look at the picture, this is the moment of the crash and you see the two guys with the green circle. So the. The one on top is Isaac Del Toro in pink. The one next to him is Richard Carapaz. Those two are the GC riders, plus Simon Yates, who made it in the front group. So they were stopped, but they were not on the ground and they could move forward. The two guys in the red circle, the one to the right is Egan Bernal. He's on the floor and his bike is somewhere there in between. And then the other guy is on the floor and his bike is nowhere to be seen. That's Primoz Rogli. So those two guys. And then we have Juana Yousso, who is not in the picture, but he must have been behind these guys who also couldn't pass. So, you know, it was based on pure luck. Also, because the crash happened really in the front of the peloton. I think it was the Little Track guys who went down. I've been told that seven of the eight riders of little track were on the floor. The only one who didn't crash was Carlos Verona. Unfortunately, Chikone was. Was quite damaged and we'll see what the damage is finally. But I fear that with tomorrow stage, especially that I don't know if he's gonna make it through tomorrow's stage, if he, if he even gets at the start. So that's unfortunate. Max Patterson went down, wasn't too badly hurt, I think, but it was completely in the front of the peloton. And, you know, if you see courses like, you know, as I said, you know, it's when it's flat, flattened, cobbled gobbles and it rains, that's the worst, Spencer. That's like. That's like ice skating. I actually think, you know, like real cobbles, like more rounded cobbles or sometimes in these cases, better, because the guys have to go slower. These, these flat cobbles, it feels like normal pavement, but it's just extremely slippery. And then, you know, the question is, I've seen a quote from Walt Van Aert who said, you know, some teams need to. Need to step back and think about what they're doing. You know, they're taking too many risks. You know, it's easy to say that if you're in the front and you are, you're driving the pace at that moment. But the GC teams have to be in the front. You know, they all need to fight for position because, you know, there was, what was it? 25k to go. 24k to go. You know, it's normal that they try to be in the front, so there's only that much space. And yeah, it was completely in the front of the peloton, so there was really nowhere you could go. It was a question of pure luck. And Del Toro and Carapas and Simon Yates made it to the front. Those are, I think, the three GC guys of any revelance, relevance. And then Roglich and Bernal and Ayusu and Tiberi lost real valuable time. Tiberi most, most of all, he was not even with. With Rocklit, so he can forget about his GC. He lost a minute. A minute 40, I guess today.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, a minute 44, I believe. And then the rest of them lost 48 seconds. He also forgot my guy, Derek G, who was in that front group, who now moves up.

[Johan]

Okay. Yeah. So, sorry, sorry, sorry.

[Spencer Martin]

Six place. Watch out for G, everybody. Yeah, I. So. Yeah, so that I'm just trying to think of. We need to give everyone the information. Yeah. So they lost 48 seconds. TB lost 144, I believe. Is this. Was this a bad day or good day for uae because they have Del Toro extend his lead. I uso loses time to Del Toro, but in theory, they don't care about that, and then really only loses time to Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz and I guess Derek G. Is that necessarily that bad?

[Johan]

I. I don't think. I mean, on. On Spanish tv, they were debating and they were saying, yeah, it's a bad day for uae. I don't think so. And I actually think that, you know, if you look at what happened during the stage, you have. At some point, you have three groups. Yeah. You have the front group. I mean, the. The. You have the breakaway. Then you have the group with. With Del Toro and Simon Yates in Carapace. Then you have the group Bernal, Ayuso, Roglic, and then behind that, there's a. There's another group with three. Four UAE guys. Three. At least three UAE guys who were chasing the moment those two groups get together. Group two and three. So the. So then Ayusu has three teammates. At no point did they go to the front and started to chase, which means, to me that UAE has the confidence in Del Toro compared to the guys like Simon Yates and Karapas and Derek G. They have the confidence in them. And are you sure Stays equal with the big favorite from before the. At the beginning of this, zero. Primo Roglic. So I think it's a good day. They don't seem to have any damage from the. From the crash. The pink jersey extends his lead to the big favorites. And are you so And. And Roglich or Status quo? I think it's a good day for them. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And if. If AISO can't make up six seconds, Simon Yates wins this Giro because Del Toro collapses and ISO can't make up six seconds on him. That's a. That's a bigger problem. And then if Carapaz, who is now roughly 30 seconds behind him, 31 seconds, maybe if he overtakes him, then he's being overtaken by more than just character. So it is a good position. I mean, I don't know how deep we wanted to get into this right now, but right now it looks like it's like, well, this race is over. Del Toro.

[Johan]

Oh, no.

[Spencer Martin]

But I hate just. But he has lost time in both time trials, which I feel like is not insignificant. He's really gained time as. As you said on crashes, which is because he's very good at positioning and.

[Johan]

Positioning. Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Positioning, time bonuses. But so far at this year, just to highlight how much this Euro has even yet to begun, we haven't had a single stage with more than 3, 900ft of climbing meters. Start. Meters. Yeah, you know, that would be a flat, flat race starting on Monday, Sunday. Or, sorry, Tuesday. We only have one stage with less than 300ft of. No, no, two stages. One.

[Johan]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

No, one stage with less than 3,800 meters of climbing and multiple stages of 4,400 and more meters of climbing. Isaac del Toro, in his entire career, has only raced over 4,000 meters in a World Tour race. And it, like, gained more than 4,000 meters in a World Tour race three times in his career. And one of those, he got six in a breakaway at the vault of Espanya, where he got dropped. But he was probably sick with Coke. So it's kind of a bad.

[Johan]

I don't think we can take this as a stand, Spencer. This guy, you know, he's. He's completely capable of. Of doing this. You know, if he. If. If he loses the pink jersey, it's going to be because he cracks completely. Every day, it's a day less. Every day, it's a day closer to Rome. And he has not shown too much weakness for the moment.

[Spencer Martin]

So, yeah, he's not. He's not shown weakness, but it is a unique zero in that the stages that we've had almost don't even resemble the same sport as the stages we will have. Like, no stages like this. Yeah, that's true.

[Johan]

There's four extreme hard mountain stages starting actually tomorrow already. Tomorrow is. Tomorrow is also a hard stage. It's not a mountaintop finish, but it's. It's already hard. And, you know, we have accumulated fatigue by now. Two weeks of racing. So, yeah, tomorrow we'll. We'll see a different. A different game already. Although maybe not decisive. Not decisive? I don't think so, but, yeah, I mean, it's. It's. It's a cliche, but, you know, I would say the real Giro still has to start. The writers will hate to hear that, but.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, and I hate that. I hate that, like, so much. It's like, well, okay, sure, but in this case, it actually is kind of true. Like, this is A really bifurcated Grand Tour. It's wild. If you just go look at the profiles and you really look at these stages, they're so different than the stages we've had and it's almost slight of hand cuz we've had some climbing. But then you start to look at the climbs and you're like, well, they don't really resemble the climbs that we have to come. Even like we just, once we get to the north, we rise up like literally in elevation and then everything changes. When you're doing multiple climbing, you know, you have four or five first category climbs in a single day. It's with no flat in between and not so easy. A couple questions, One thing, one thing.

[Johan]

I also want to point out, Spencer. You know, we've had different scenarios of, of riders who were in a position that they were behind Roglich. But now the Berry mainly these three, you know, and I've seen that they had teammates around them and they, you know, I'm of the point of view that a leader, when he's in a situation like this, when it's really, you know, like it either you come back or you lose too much time. The leader also has to pull. You know, it's not just your teammates who pull and you're sitting in, in third or fourth position and then you start to pull. Whenever your teammates blow up, your teammates are not going to close the gap, you know, so they need help because they're going to ride until they blow up and at most, at most they're going to maintain the gap. So in order to decrease the gap, the leader has to pull. And I've not seen, I mean Roglic, I mean they didn't show too much footage of the pursuit, right? But I've seen the teammates of Roglic pool, the teammates of Bernalpool Tiberi with three teammates, but they only, these guys only started pulling when their teammates were gone. That's never going to work. You can't then all of a sudden, unless they get you to the bottom of a climb and you fly up that climb and you close the gap, that's different. But this today was not the case. So I think they often make the mistake to not collaborate with their teammates and contribute to the chase. It's not because, I mean, you can't just stay there in the wheel until they blow up. You know, you have to, you have to help them. And I haven't seen that today, thinking.

[Spencer Martin]

About that when I was watching it because in theory the leader is the strongest Writer in the group, you would imagine.

[Johan]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And a group of teammates, the leader should be the strongest. And if, if your teammates are rotating through, but then wout Bernard is, is pulling in the group ahead, they're not going to be faster than Walt Bernard.

[Johan]

Probably.

[Spencer Martin]

They're best the same speed. So you need the strongest guy to actually come forward to start chopping.

[Johan]

Yeah, I mean, and at least, at least, you know, I mean, and, and the leader doesn't even have to go 100, because if his teammates are pulling 100, he's at 80. He's still gonna come true.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I, I, Yeah, I was curious about that, Johan. Thanks for mentioning it. Also, where would, where would Rugos be without Julio Pelizari? Speaking of teammates pulling today, today, traffic was back. Was back.

[Johan]

Maybe it was because in Slovenia. By the way, Spencer, I forgot to mention at the beginning of the show, we made a mistake yesterday. We mentioned the mountain bike World cup race in Novo Mesto. There's actually two Novomestos. This one is in Czech Republic.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan]

Yes, there is a Nova.

[Spencer Martin]

A lot of sense.

[Johan]

Yeah. So there is. It's not in Slovenia, the mountain bike. It's in Czech Republic. When I googled Novo Mesto, the first thing that showed up was Slovenia. But some attentive listeners or viewers of our podcast have mentioned in the comments that it's in Czech Republic. So apologies for that. And also, Matthew Vanderpool didn't race today, the short track, because he's not qualified. He doesn't have points. He can only race tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I saw another.

[Johan]

I wanted to correct that.

[Spencer Martin]

Didn't race today because they didn't have the points. I didn't know that was so restrictive. But Christopher Blevins, an American, won the short track. Yeah.

[Johan]

Very impressive. Very impressive.

[Spencer Martin]

Puck won the women's short track, I believe. Okay, I'm sorry for the spoilers on the short track, but if you're working, if you're saving your day around the short track, I apologize, but I think that's it on today.

[Johan]

Right.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, it really sets the stage for. It's, it's unfortunate. It kind of sets an interesting stage, though, for the rest of this race.

[Johan]

Yeah, but I think I, you know, listen, it's still, it's great for Del Toro.

[Spencer Martin]

But it's still wide open.

[Johan]

Especially we just now in the, in the. Preparing the podcast. We've previewed a little bit some of the stages to come, and, yeah, we have not seen anything compared to what they still have to go over these multi, multi, multi climb stages. When we did four or five climbs, that's, that's, that's horrible. That's. It's really, really hard.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, Del Toro is going into a situation where like even just the raw climbing vertical, like he won't have done, you know, he will, I guess. He did one. He's done one stage. It's 5, 000 meters of climbing, stage 20 of the wealth last year. But just being an uncharted territory like that probably isn't ideal if you're trying to defend it.

[Johan]

Well, you know, that's not. I keep. The pressure is not on him, you know, I mean, it's. Sorry. I mean, if he leaves the jersey, no, everybody's gonna say, hey, man, great job, Great job. You know, you did amazing. It's not like the pressure's on him so this guy can climb. Spencer, okay, it was Tour de la veneer, but man, the way I saw him climb there, that was impressive in the last, in the last stage. And it was a hard, hard climb. I don't remember the name of the climb was in the Alps, I think, but he was, he. I mean, he destroyed the field there.

[Spencer Martin]

I guess it's. I guess you can't dispute. Of course he can climb, but then it's like situational climbing. Like, you know, it's like how long was that stage would be? Or like what was the normalized power going into that final climb like once you start, you know, There's a reason 21 year olds so rarely win grand Tours.

[Johan]

But you know what, Spencer? I'm pretty sure that Del Toro right now in this Giro, he's breaking all of his records. He's breaking all of his power. His best, best power day by day. I'm pretty sure of that.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, yesterday was probably his top one minute power, if I had to guess.

[Johan]

Speaking of yesterday, speaking of yesterday, Spencer, another, another listener of our podcast mentioned that before, I don't know if before this 0 or in the preparation of the, of the season that Mats Pedersen broke his personal record. One minute power. 1000 watts for one minute.

[Spencer Martin]

What?

[Johan]

1000 watts for one minute.

[Spencer Martin]

Jesus. Wow. There you go. Jeez.

[Johan]

Yeah, Wow.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, I guess that's why he won that stage yesterday.

[Johan]

Exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

That explains it. That's a lot. That's a lot of power. My God.

[Johan]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

A thousand watts for a minute. Whoa. But I guess it kind of makes sense now that I hear it, considering how much better he was than everybody else on that finish. But let's take a quick ad break and then we'll talk about tomorrow's stage 15.

[Johan]

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[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan]

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[Spencer Martin]

Families and friends are suffering too. Al, Anon and Alatene can help. Call 1-866-200-0223 or visit al anon.org help okay, Johan, so stage 15, as you said, this is the. The beginning of the end game. We. We dip our toes a little, amuse, amuse, bouche into that. Where I guess you would call it like pre Alps if you've ever been to Monte Grappa. It's silly to call it a foothill, but it kind of is like, it's functionally just like right at the plane. It's very hard climb, though, but they get about 100k of, you know, they're back in like the rolling Veneto landscape. It's a 220 kilometer stage, though, so this is like real Giro distance. They do Monte grappa, which is 25k long at 5.7% average. Not the steepest climb, because it's the easy ascent, I guess, but that is very long. That's. That's a lot of kilojoules in your legs. Then they descend down the other side, a little valley, and then they start climbing again. 16.6, 16.6 K at 5.3% again, not crazy steep, but there's a bonus second sprint in the middle of the climb, which will complicate it. And then they have this rolling kind of plateau into Asiago. If you remember, I believe it was a 2017 Giro. They came here late in the race, the year that Tom Dumlan won, and it was a GC group finishing together. If I. If I'm remembering correctly. But I'll list off the favorites on Unibet and then we'll get your take on who's going to win. The favorite, Isaac del Toro plus 600 Pelo Bell plus 1100 Tom Pickock plus 1400 Roman Barde plus 1600 Wout Poles plus 1600 Giulio Ciccone plus 2000 Luke Platt plus 2000 Max Poole plus 2500 Christian Scarroni plus 2800 Matthias Vodsek, who I don't think is going to win, plus 2800. But it goes on and on. We'll list them if we need to how's this going to play out, Johan? GC or breakaway? And who's going to win?

[Johan]

Yeah, difficult. Difficult choice. You know, that last climb, Spencer, I.

[Spencer Martin]

Think it's a lot.

[Johan]

A lot more difficult than we expect. You know, it's. I've watched the. The map a little bit. There's a lot of switchbacks, you know, so switchbacks usually is never good news. So, yeah, it's 17 kilo, 16 kilometers, more or less, 6% average, I would say. I expect the breakaway, and then it depends how far the breakaway is ahead. I also expect some people in the GC group who will try, one of them being Eran Bernal, because he's tried at every single stage there was an opportunity. So I still gonna go for. I mean, and also, Spencer, it's the day before the rest day, so I think some of the GC guys may actually give it a try. You know, you never know. I'm still gonna go for a breakaway, though. And my pick tomorrow for the win from the breakaway is Walt pools. He's plus 1600. It's another experienced guy who knows how to go in breakaways, how to manage his effort in breakaways, and then pull it off with a stage win. So, yeah, it's plus 1600. I think that's an interesting choice. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm split on if this is GC or not the last time, as I said, the last time they mentioned and not the last time they finished here. At least the last time I remember them finishing here, it was a GC group. But, yeah, Wild polls, I. I could see this being. Because if UAE doesn't want this to be a GC day, I assume because they're happy, they got to be happy with that lead that Del Toro has. So if they don't want it to be a GC day, I don't think anyone else is going to take it up and force that issue. So Wild Polls is a good pick, but I'm going to go with someone who's looked really good lately and finished in that first Chase group today, Roman Bardet. Plus 1600. Same price as Wild Poles, I think. I mean, I. I kind of hate to invoke this, but it's like it's his last Grand Tour because it's like, yeah, sure, I'm sure he's wanted to win a stage in every Grand Tour he's ever done. Like, it's not like, it's my last one, so I gotta win now. But he will be very motivated. He looks very fit. More importantly, and I think he could win the stage.

[Johan]

Yeah. He was also one of the two last guys with. With Valcyk. Was it yesterday? Yeah. So yesterday.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan]

Yeah. He's starting to have good legs in this Giro. Yeah, I. I think that's a good choice. My second pick will be a guy from the GC group, and especially because. Because of the price. But I could see a battle between GC guys coming back together and a late attack of Richard Carapas. He's plus 5,000 for the win, so I think it's worth a shot. It would be another EF win and the second stage win for Karapas in this Giro, but I think he has the legs to do it, and it.

[Spencer Martin]

Would kind of serve dual purposes because he's, you know, still got to be thinking, overall, podium, even win. And, you know, he's 207 back. It gets to take time. It kind of. They look at the finish, it is kind of carapazi. It has. It's rolling. And then the last 3k are kind of downhill, but it's a flat final K. There's a little. Few launch pads. Like, you could see it get weird, actually, like, if he launches again, like, what does UA do?

[Johan]

And also ef. EF must be on a high. You know, two stage wins on those, two stage win. Already got a pass, obviously, is getting in the. In the game. He has good legs. So. So, yeah, I think that's. That's worth. Worth a bet.

[Spencer Martin]

And then on the. In the same vein, like, you could see this stage, hard for a breakaway to get away because it's flat, it's peg back. They don't get enough of a gap. Riders do have to, like, the GC has to open up at some point because we are running out of stages. As you say, the days are ticking down to Rome. So if people get frisky, they want to take that lead from Del Toro. If, you know, if they force the issue, it could be a GC day. I think, though, that would be a mistake, because I think if it's a GC group at the finish, I think Isaac del Toro, plus six, 600 wins. So he would be my wild card to win if they do bring it. The GC group to the finish. Because he's so fast. I mean, he's, like, so much more powerful than the rest of these GC guys. Like we saw yesterday.

[Johan]

Yeah, he's punchy. You know, he. He has this, you know, acceleration. Even today. Spencer, if you look. If you look at where he was, we could see. We could see it on the picture we showed before where he was. He was stopped.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan]

Had to go through. And then the way he came back to that group because Visma did not hesitate for a second. They kept going and straight away he was in the front of the group. So he must have like really like he has a big acceleration.

[Spencer Martin]

And so any. Any other thoughts on tomorrow, Johan?

[Johan]

No, that's it. I mean, what's the weather like? I hope. I hope they stay dry and they can race, you know, without having to take too many risks. Because, you know, mountain stages with bad weather, that's never fun.

[Spencer Martin]

It's kind of been a tough one because it says a 20 chance of precipitation. I believe today was 40%. But like there was a lot of the day where they weren't getting rained on, you know.

[Johan]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And then there was day where the part of the day where they were and then it was wet where they crashed. So I mean, especially this part of the world, this time of year can. It can be rainy, it can be dry, like all in the same hour. So you never really can be sure it's not going to rain.

[Johan]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And then just programming note, we will not have a show right after tomorrow's stage. We will have a show coming out on the rest day on Monday though. And then we'll be back as normal on Tuesday when the race gets really interesting.

[Johan]

Okay, thanks, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thanks, Johan. Talk to you soon.