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Giro d'Italia Stage 16 Analysis & Stage 17 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:44:31
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin break down the explosive action from Stage 16 of the Giro d'Italia, where the race's first true mountain stages exploded the GC, with UAE's Isaac del Toro finally showing signs of weakness as he struggled to hold the...
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- [00:00]
Johan Berniele
A Grand Tour remains a Grand Tour, and it's an effort of three weeks. And if you think that the efforts you do in week one don't come with a price, then you don't understand anything about cycling. I'm sorry you have to say it, but that's the way it is.
- [00:18]
Spencer Martin
Everybody, welcome back to the move. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniele. We are talking about stage 16 of the Giro d' Italia before predicting tomorrow's stage 17. Before we get into that, though, let's take a quick break to highlight our partners for the show, everybody. This episode is brought to you by NordVPN. No doubt you've heard of VPNs, but what are they? Well, a VPN is a service that helps protect your Internet connection and privacy online VPNs and creates an encrypted tunnel for your data, protect your online identity and hide your IP address. This allows you to use publicly available WI spy hotspots safely while logging into sensitive portals. But what else does it allow you to do? Well, it allows you to mask where you're browsing from. What does this allow you to do? It allows you to watch whatever content you want, no matter where you are in the world. So, as you saw today, if you watch the JIRA to tell you one of the best stages in modern in Modern Geo history. And what did we enjoy? We enjoyed the, the wonderful TNT sports coverage. You had Adam Blythe on the Moto giving us, giving us the the Primus Roglich and Richard Carapace crash. Before anyone else had it, we had Orla Shin and we in studio, we had fantastic announcers with Rob Hatch and Robin mc. But you're going to lose them for the tour. Well, if you really want to keep them, you could look into NordVPN. They're easy to use. It's an incredibly easy to use service. I cannot stress how easy this is. I use it all the time for almost for every race. You just download the app, connect in one click and you are online wherever you want to be. From 7,500 servers in 118 different countries. You can change your virtual location easily. It has an amazing speed. It's one of the fastest VPNs out there. And it can be used on 10 different devices. So you can be watching on your TV, you can have a race on your laptop, on your phone, and you don't really have to understand how VPN works. I think a lot of people get tripped up with that. All you have to do is download NordVPN. Turn it on and you're good to go. You can browse from wherever you want in the world and get your exclusive NordVPN deal here@nordvpn.com themove. It's risk free with this 30 day money back guarantee. The link is in the show notes or just go to NordVPN.com the move to activate it right now, everybody. This episode is brought to you by One Skin. Dry skin and deep wrinkles. These are just a few of the visible signs of aging, something today's sponsor, One Skin knows all about. I'm not overly concerned with aesthetics, but if you're out there riding a lot like you saw at the zero today, zero today with the rain, the sun, it's just beating on you. You're getting hammered by the road spray. Your skin is going to age faster than someone who isn't riding a lot. But luckily you have one skin in the os. One peptide in all of their products is scientifically proven to decrease lines and wrinkles, boost hydration and help with the thinning skin that often comes with age. And don't just take my word for it. They've got over 4,000 five star reviews for their full line of face, body, sun and travel size products. You're going to want all of those if you're into riding because you might be flying, you don't want to check a bag. So their travel size products can take care of it for you. Oneskin is the world's first skin longevity company. By focusing on the cellular aspects of aging, One Skin keeps your skin looking and acting younger for longer. Get started today with 15% off your order using code the move at one skin co. That's 15% off. Using code the move at one skin co dot that's o n e s k I n co using code the Move. All right, let's get into the show. All right, Johan. So stage 16 just wrapped up. Christian Scaroni from XDIA Sistana 1. Lorenzo Fortunato, his teammate second. But behind them was absolute GC chaos. Like we knew it was going to be an important GC day because kind of the first mountain stage, you would say. I did not expect this though. It starts off rainy, cold, rainy mountain day. UAE lets the gap go out to the breakaway really far. There's some jostling. You know, maybe Ineos is going to pull it back to contest the stage, but Primus Raglich, Richard Carapaz. Crash. Primus Raglic goes home not even quite sure why he started the stage since he couldn't ride on the rest day. Never a good sign. Later in the stage, Eagan Bernal crashes. Ineos comes off the front, UAE goes to the front. Kind of interesting, maybe just keeping things under control. They get to the second to last climb though, where this was a brutally hard climb. 12 kilometers long, 8.3% average. EF gets to the front, starts pacing. Juana Uso, who had been back to the team car and kind of tailed off on an earlier climb, is officially dropped here. He's sitting very far back. You're like, yeah, this isn't right. He's dropped. Egan Bernal dropped. Get the catches back on. Richard Carapaz looks not good. I think, oh, ef's messed up here. Well, they get to the final climb, which is extremely long, like 18km long. Not so steep at the bottom. And by not so steep, I mean 7 to 8%, which is still pretty hard. Wild Bernard, who's been in the breakaway, is caught, reeled in, starts pacing on the front for Simon Yates. If, if it looked hard, it was hard. Cuz he was pacing at 510 watts average for 10 minutes. That's a, that's a pretty good little lead out. He pulls off, but he's been pulling so hard that stuff starts to kind of unravel at this point. Julio Pelizar attacks because Rafa Micah comes to take over for uae. He can't keep up the same pace w Vanarts been riding at Pelizar from Red Bull. Bora Hansgro now given freedom because Roglic crashed out, gets a little gap and then stuff gets interesting. Simon Yates attacks, pulls a little group with himself and Richard Carapaz free. Derek G tailed off, but then Carapaz, smart, smart man, knows how to race. He waits about a. A kilometer. Yates is stuck on the front carapace, goes to the opposite side of the road, which is exactly what you're supposed to do. Attacks over there. Yates hesitates. Probably tired from that attack he just did. And Jerich G had just caught up to them. He responds, but he can't close the gap right away. So G's kind of stuck in the middle. Yates still has Isaac del Toro on his, on his wheel like within 2k though Richard Carapaz almost has a minute on him eventually. 3.7km to go. Isaac del Toro dropped. We, you know, he had been swinging. It wasn't completely shocking. I thought he was going to melt down, but he actually holds the gap pretty well. By the finish line, the the two xtus Astana riders finish and then Julio Belizari who, who started the final climb minutes behind these leaders is only 55 seconds back. Like would have caught them if it was any longer. Richard Carapaz is 15 seconds behind him. Derek G 13 seconds behind Carapaz. And when all said and done, Simon Yates loses 42 seconds on Richard Carapaz. Damian Caruso loses 121 who's now moved up into the top five. Isaac Del Toro loses 136 on Carapaz retains the race lead though by 26 seconds over Simon Yates. 31 seconds over Richard Carapaz. 1 minute 31 seconds on Derek Garrett 2 minutes 40 over Domina Cruzo. Eager Murnau loses time. Michael Storr moves into seventh place overall. Antonio Tiberi loses time. Julio Pelizarri moves into ninth overall, 436 back. Adam Yates in 10th at 508 back. I don't know how significant that will be, but Johan, a lot happened today. What, what was your initial takeaway?
- [07:38]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, well, we also need to add a part of the crash of Roglich also. Josh Darling crashed and is out. And especially Martinelli from vf. That was a scary crash. He went down over the rails down afterwards. I was happy to see the report that he doesn't have any serious injuries. So he was super, super lucky. But it was a horrible climate in the beginning to do such a long mountain stage. You know, if you see the guys with rain jackets on and then, and you know they have four or five climbs to do, it's like this is miserable, really miserable. Luckily for the last part of the ray of the stage it cleared up and it was even sunny. But yeah, as you say, we saw a lot, you know, a big group. I was initially convinced, you know, that the break, the breakaway is going to make it. They did in the end. But then we see sometimes a few strange things. One of the, one of the things that I remarked is once again, I'm not going to say strange tactics but, but the tactics of ineos, you know, starting to set the pace and then Bernal attacks with in my opinion, way too far from the finish. And then, and on two stages he has paid for it at the end. I personally think Bernal is, is in really good condition and I don't actually understand why he keeps doing these attacks, putting his whole team on the far out from the finish. Because it's, it's, it's never going to work. He's never going to make it to the finish by himself or Even without, without some of the favorites, he must probably have seen that Ausso was in trouble. So, you know, that could be one of the reasons. But it's still not up to him to, to and his team to do that. It would be Karapas or, or Visma with, with, with Simon Yates who should increase the pace if they see that one of the favorites is in trouble, in my opinion. So that's a bit of a question mark for me why they do that. It adds to the, you know, spectacle of the race, of course, but it's not very efficient. Also, Spencer, if you think about we, we're now 16 stages down in today in one day, the two number one favorites. That was basically when we started the Giro. We were talking there was nobody else who could win the Giro except Rog or Ayusu. The Roglich is out of the race and Ayusu is out of the pacification. He lost more than 13 minutes today. So, you know, it's. A lot of things can happen in a Grand Tour, right? And especially in this, in this Giro. The Giro is famous to have a hard last week, but this is extreme. All the mountains and all the difficulties are concentrated in the last six stages. So today we saw the first time really big carnage in gc. And this is only a taste of what we still have to go. We still will. Okay, today was definitely a very hard stage, but there are other hard stages and the accumulated fatigue. I'm always talking, Spencer, about accumulated fatigue. And today I want to repeat, you know, what I said already many times I said it on social media, I said it here in the podcast. People need to understand that a Grand Tour is a three week effort. It's an effort that you every day need to measure having in mind that it's three weeks. Today is a good example that the last week is gonna. It's. It's the people who have raced smart and have, you know, they were biding their time looking, you know, to conserve energy, you know, and there's, you know, there's people. I'm not going to name it by name, but there's one specific podcaster, for example, who says that he doesn't believe that efforts and attacks you do in week one will have an impact in week two or week three. That's absolutely not true. That's absolutely not true. I can tell you. And even if cycling has changed the way they race, the way they train, the way they prepare, a Grand Tour remains a Grand Tour. And it's an effort of three weeks. And if you Think that the efforts you do in week one don't come with a price, then you don't understand anything about cycling. I'm sorry I have to say it, but that's the way it is. And we will see now, in week three, I mean, Kara Pass, for example, was. I don't think he was one of the big favorites before the race. You know, we haven't seen much from him during the season yet. He's. He came into the. Into the Giro. He was straight away. He was in good form, but he was not very prominent. He did one big attack, and I've always said, if you make. If you make an attack, you. It better. It better bring some benefit. And he did one big attack before today, and he won the stage. And he took some time. Right. We haven't seen much else from him since then. He's always been there, but never spent any bullets. Today was a big bullet, and, you know, it was very, very good for him. He gained a lot of time, and he's now becoming, in my opinion, the biggest favorite doing the Giro after what I've seen today. But still, we have a week. I mean, or, you know, we have five or six days of racing to go, and a lot can still happen. Today's effort, for example, can be. It can be that he pays for it in the next stages. The last week is different, you know, because it's always. You race against the five, six same guys all the time, right? It's the. Always the best guys in front. So I expect that kind of possible, stay on that level, if not get better, because he's very famous to get better. And he always has a great third week. And then, let's not forget, you know, he. He won this race already. It's been a while, but he's been up there second, third in other ground Tours. So that was an amazing race of carapas today.
- [14:19]
Spencer Martin
It was. It was amazing. And I think I should probably apologize to Richard Carapaz. I thought his GC days were done. I think I've said that multiple times.
- [14:26]
Johan Berniele
Me too.
- [14:27]
Spencer Martin
On the record.
- [14:28]
Johan Berniele
Me too.
- [14:28]
Spencer Martin
He did. He did get fourth at the most recent Grand Tour. He did the vault. The most recent Grand Tour that happened, the Vuelta Espana. Pretty good result. Think about Richard Carapaz. I mean, he could still. Would it be funny if he falls apart? And we're like, see, that's why you shouldn't attack. He burned too much energy. But, like, this guy is really even. Especially in Grand Tours where he has bad luck or he's not in Great form coming into the race. He has really good third weeks. And like, think of the. I'm looking at the 20, 22 Vuelta. Guy was unbelievable in the third week. Same thing at the Tour last year. Kind of had some stumbles. Unbelievable in the third week. I hate to use the word, it's overly general, but class he is, He's a classy rider because I heard maybe some of his preparation is not. He's not embraced the ultra scientific monkish preparation that it takes to be a modern Grand Tour winner. But my theory for this third week is, okay, maybe he doesn't come in as fully cooked as everybody else, but then things get equalized and as the race goes on like his natural class just. I mean, how many riders can race for three weeks? Not very many. You know, there's not many people that can physically win a Grand Tour. And he's just so good in that third week, which would bode well first chances to win because he's only what, 20, 31 seconds behind, five seconds behind. Simon Yates still has to beat him, but he looked pretty dang strong today, I'd say. And just as the.
- [15:49]
Johan Berniele
His ability, no more time trials, which is his weak point. So that's also good.
- [15:54]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, like, this has worked out perfectly for him because I thought too, I was like, well, even if he has a good climbing Grand Tour, he can't time trial, and that's going to catch up to him. But it's funny, it's like if. If they had the same number of time trial kilometers, but space differently, maybe it keeps them from winning, but because they got him out of the way early, it kind of all comes out in the wash. I. Yeah, I guess anything could still happen. Like, let's just highlight Derek G. For example.
- [16:21]
Johan Berniele
Yeah. Spencer, I need to apologize to Derek G. Not believing in his. Because yesterday you, you put him forward as maybe your candidate to win the Giro. I mean, I still think that's a stretch, but man, he is, he is riding really strong, very strong. And, and today he was. I mean, he, he reacted to Karapas was not in the way, but he didn't lose that much time, you know, and he was gaining up on a.
- [16:50]
Spencer Martin
Kilometer and quite drastically.
- [16:52]
Johan Berniele
Yeah. And another, another thing I noticed today, Spencer, is. And, and there you could see that Del Toro didn't have the legs that we have seen from him until now is. It's the first time, the first attack that Del Toro didn't jump on the wheel and sat on the wheel. It's the first time in this whole Giro that this has happened. So this was obviously, you know, a sign that he was. He was gonna. He was gonna struggle. I still think he did amazing. Kept, you know, kept his pace. He lost what. He lost one and a half minute on Karapas. 1, 135, 136, I believe. Okay. It's a lot, but it could have been worse. We'll see now. We'll see now in. In the last week, what. What happens with Del Toro. What's clear is that this is changing the. The whole dynamics of the race in terms of the strategy of uae. I think they're going to be aggressive with other riders now to. To. To wear out. I mean, maybe to try to win a stage or. Or to wear out the teams of. I mean, Visma doesn't really have a team when it's uphill, and Garabas, Yeah. I mean, ef, they're not the strongest team, neither in the mountain stages. So we'll see what that will do. Now, the. The. You know, are you so. Being out of GC to be seen what's wrong with him? You know, if. If he can recover and stay in the race and. And be used to go in breakaways. Personally, I think. I think at some point, I think we're going to lose Ayuso in this race. You know, once he's. Once he's out of gc, it's going to be difficult now to mentally bounce back for him, because this guy came into the Giro to. To win, and until this morning, I'm pretty sure he thought he had a chance.
- [18:54]
Spencer Martin
Well, something's not been right for a few days. Like, if you. If you. Knowing what, you know now, if you go back and watch stage 15, it's just, like, not. He's at the car a lot. He had the mechanical, but he's kind of taking his time to get back. He's always the last wheel suffering when. When Del Toro is attacking. Like, I don't know if it's sickness, I don't know if it's the knee, but something's not quite clicking right there.
- [19:15]
Johan Berniele
Yeah. And also, you know, one thing we have to also take into account, I think we can only really judge, especially Del Toro, you know, we'll see tomorrow. We'll see tomorrow how he is. Some people. And this is also something you need to, you know, get experience with. Like, the day after a rest day is different, especially when it's in the mountains. So some people react differently to a rest day. So this could also be one of the explanations While that Toro had a bit of a weaker day, I'm thinking more towards his youth and getting really tired right now. But, you know, having no experience with rest days is obviously also something that we have to take into account.
- [20:04]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, yeah, the youth. And then even I'm thinking of stage 18, 20, 2018. Simon Yates been in the lead, been looking fantastic. He loses a little bit of time, like 30 seconds, you're like, oh. But he's still. Okay. He's still in the race lead. And then the next day he just falls apart. So if I had to put money on it, I would say that. Having said that, you're right. After. It's. It's the first day after rest day, and then the beginning of the stage was freezing cold. Like, people had two pairs of gloves on. That must have affected the riders later. And then you're stripping everything off, and then you're racing hard and it's sunny. Like, that has to affect people, especially young writers. Maybe not used to that. So I don't know.
- [20:44]
Johan Berniele
Maybe.
- [20:45]
Spencer Martin
Maybe he's fine, but I would imagine he's gonna.
- [20:48]
Johan Berniele
I wish he did. Yeah. Looks scary strong, Spencer.
- [20:55]
Spencer Martin
And he believes, you know.
- [20:56]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, he's seen.
- [20:57]
Spencer Martin
Oh, yeah. Toro go off his wheel.
- [20:59]
Johan Berniele
There is no doubt in Karapas's mind that he can win this. 0.
- [21:06]
Spencer Martin
What do you do if you're UAE here? It's such a weird situation because they're. They were on top of the world. They've now completely collapsed, but they're still in the race.
- [21:14]
Johan Berniele
They're still in the lead and they have completely collapsed. I mean, they're still.
- [21:17]
Spencer Martin
Emotionally, though, it probably feels like that.
- [21:19]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Definitely, definitely. Listen, they. They're still in the lead. They still have to control the race. That's why I think probably that breakaways will have a chance in the next few stages, But. But still, they just. They need to believe in Del Toro. You know, he can. He can find his legs back and. And he's still in the lead. They still have to take the time back. It's not because he's dropped today that he's going to be dropped every day, but. Yeah, I mean, I personally think it's going to come down all to the last, to stage 20, to quality finestre. I think it's. There's. That's where this. That's. That's where the year is going to be decided.
- [22:10]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I. I could see that. Especially Since, I mean, EF's actually been decently strong at this race, but, I mean, all of these teams could Rise to the occasion. But like Visma EF Israel, like, they want this jersey as late as possible if they're going to get it, because what's not interesting. So Eagerman all sixth. 3:30 to 323 back. Does any of us just keep trying this aggressive racing? Like, how do they adjust?
- [22:36]
Johan Berniele
They need to. I mean, listen, egg on the. Bernal needs to raise differently. He can't go from that far. It's. It's not gonna. He can eliminate one guy, but then, you know, there needs to be enough interest to. From other riders. So, I mean, he can crack one guy, but he's never going to crack all of them in front of him. So he needs to, you know. I don't know. I don't know. It's strange, you know, he got dropped and then he came back and he was hanging on and his, his basic form is really. His endurance is really good because he, he never really cracks. He can keep going. So I would prefer to see him save himself a little bit in these earlier climbs and try to do it on the last climb.
- [23:28]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, like today's last climb seemed like that was perfect for Eagan Bernal. I don't fully get why they're so anxious. They've got ants in their pants. They can't sit still until the final climb. Another just observation. Derek G. Fourth place, 131 back. I'm obviously very biased for Derek G. I'm running the G fan club in my spare time. But if he doesn't get caught behind the crashes on stage nine, he loses 222 to Del Toro and then about a minute and a half to Carapaz. He's winning this race, right? He's leading this race right now.
- [24:00]
Johan Berniele
Plus, plus I think he lost almost a minute on stage one. He started his giro really bad.
- [24:05]
Spencer Martin
Like he's trying to make it fair for everybody.
- [24:12]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, I mean he's, you know that image yesterday, Spencer. Or was it two days? I don't remember when it was. You know, yesterday. Two days ago when this crazy fan idiot was running next to the guys with this fox, you know, and Derek G is making fun and touching the fox when. And then I, I watched it afterwards again. I mean, everybody was on the limit there. They were going crazy fast uphill and he was joking with this guy. So yeah, that's. That was definitely a sign that Derek G has, has really good legs.
- [24:48]
Spencer Martin
And so one more crackpot theory for you. It's a. I'm flying high for my G prediction. Julio Pelizar it won't really ever be remembered because XDS Astoni goes 1, 2. Pillazari dropped Richard Carapaz after Richard Carapaz reeled him in. And then he drops him. Finishes 15 seconds in front of him. Almost wins this stage. Like, they started the final climb like four minutes behind these leaders. Pelizarry is now 436 back. Lost a good portion of that because he's been working for Primos and.
- [25:20]
Johan Berniele
Yeah.
- [25:21]
Spencer Martin
And pulling for him. The rest of the race is climbing. He appears to be the strongest climber in the race.
- [25:28]
Johan Berniele
Well, today, today.
- [25:30]
Spencer Martin
Should we keep an eye on him? Is he going to keep moving up? And he's like just far enough back that it's like, what happens. He's going to keep attacks.
- [25:37]
Johan Berniele
He is going to keep moving up for sure. He's in great shape now. I see him rather win a stage. He's going to keep moving up, but he can't win this Giro.
- [25:50]
Spencer Martin
I mean, that would be absurd. 21 year old in the third week coming back to win the Giro. I do hope he wins the stage because I still am sad that he lost that stage last year. I still can't believe Pagachar took that from him in that fashion.
- [26:03]
Johan Berniele
That's the guy who got the pink jersey from Pogacha. No.
- [26:07]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Okay.
- [26:08]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, now I remember. Yeah, I was on Monte Grappa.
- [26:13]
Spencer Martin
Wait, wasn't it that in like. Are you sure that wasn't in, like St. Ulrich where they went over and. Because they were down in the valley in like Selva, and then they climb up to a ski resort and it was just kind of like a stage that shouldn't have been a GC day, but. Gotcha. Pulled everything back.
- [26:28]
Johan Berniele
Could be. Could be. I don't remember.
- [26:30]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it was. Yeah, I remember being like, that guy got.
- [26:35]
Johan Berniele
He's.
- [26:35]
Spencer Martin
He's never going to get. Get over that. But clearly he's gone on to great things. I'm just trying to go through any other notes we have before we move on to tomorrow's stage. I mean, I think we should say wout Van Art probably safe to say he's back. That was a pretty impressive.
- [26:52]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, yeah, he's definitely, definitely in good shape. He's. Yeah. I mean, this. A big engine like that. Just once they. They get rid of all their troubles. They just keep steady, you know. So we're gonna see Bob Bernard in more breaks. Obviously he has a big task now with. With Simon Yates riding so well and being in second. So, I mean, if you. If you see today Spencer. Yeah. You know, in, in the third week, it is 510 watts for 10 minutes. There's not many people who can do that, you know.
- [27:28]
Spencer Martin
Well, after being in the breakaway, going over, they'd already gone over 1, 2, 3 climbs. Like big climbs.
- [27:36]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, well, I mean, we have to take into account his weight. Right? So he's what, like he's 75? No, he's more, more. I think he's 77 kilos or something. He's tall. You know, he's very tall. And I think Walt van Art in the Tour will probably be 75, but he's still a little bit. I mean, definitely not overweight, but you know, that's just his, you know, his body composition, but still huge power and, and yeah, maybe I'm just gonna be tomorrow in the break too and, and.
- [28:11]
Spencer Martin
Try to win the stage.
- [28:12]
Johan Berniele
Who knows?
- [28:14]
Spencer Martin
I was wondering about that. I mean, just to give people an idea about like how good Pagachar and Vinegar are. So fin Art, he posted on the rest day yesterday his like training peaks from the race so far. And I think it was the stage where he got second to Mads Pedersen on the uphill sprint. It was his best all time. 10 minute power, 518 watts. Like. Well, that's, that's pretty good. I actually think this 510 is more impressive because it comes at the end of a hard mountain stage. But that 518, at his weight, he's still not going quite as fast from a watts per kilo perspective as Pagachar was on the final climbs of like those Kyrenian stages of the Tour last year. So that's why those guys are really good and no one can challenge them in the GC Other thing before we move on. XDS Astana wins. I mean, they're clearly getting promoted. This is unbelievable.
- [29:05]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, there's no stopping. There's no stopping that anymore. Spencer. That's. Yeah. You know, today only today. What is it? Or today they got like 200 something points. No more than 200 points. The stage one is 183.
- [29:19]
Spencer Martin
180 seconds. 130.
- [29:21]
Johan Berniele
So that's okay. So yeah, 310. Yeah.
- [29:24]
Spencer Martin
And yeah, 3:10 and I read an interesting article. We don't have to dwell on it here and some of it sounds silly and like common sense, but apparently they sat down in the off season and they just took everyone's like training files and like this person's good at five minute power. Let's look at a race where they could do we utilize that skill and do well and get results and it's clearly worked and. Yeah, but I kind of wonder if that will become normal because normally you think like we need every point possible probably.
- [29:54]
Johan Berniele
I mean, this is different also for them because they need to go to races where it's easier to score points. Right. And they did a great job. But I do know they hired one or two people specifically for this issue and they designed the calendar based on, I mean you say to the, their, their, their power output for certain amount of time and, but especially, you know, design the calendar to, to optimize the, the chances to, to take points and it works. But you know, one thing would be that they get the majority of their points in all like let's say Mickey Mouse races, but this is not the case. They're. They're up there in the big races too. Yeah.
- [30:40]
Spencer Martin
And what's weird is because I would have said that three months ago, two months ago. What's weird is those Mickey Mouse results have almost helped them get results here. I don't fully know how to explain it, but it's just like given the team so much confidence. And you think Scarroni would be fried by now because he was so strong in January and February, but.
- [30:58]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, well, I think Scaroni got saved by his crash instead of Bianchi and he was out for quite a while. He was unbelievable. In the first month and a half of racing, it was kind of almost unbeatable. He was the best rider in the world actually at some point, points wise in this season. But then he got, he got a pretty bad crash. But honestly, I have to say, Spencer, I, I thought Astana, the way they started this season, I said, well, they, they won't be able to keep this up for many months. They're still there. They're still very, very strong. Okay. We're only the month of May, so, you know, we still have half of the season left. Right. But still amazing job what they're doing and they're definitely staying in the World Tour, which I would not have wanted to bet one euro on it before the season.
- [31:55]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I, I think I said it was impossible, but they're doing it. It's impressive. So let's take a quick ad break or before we go, do you think Carapaz is going to win this race overall?
- [32:10]
Johan Berniele
The way I see, the way I saw it today, I think so. I think so. Yeah. I think he's, you know, based on what we know of how he writes in the last week, usually, you know, we've seen him extremely strong in the last week of Grand Tours when he had some trouble in the beginning of the, the Grand Tours and he's out of contention for gc. But yeah, listen, if you have these legs in stage 16, there's no slowing down anymore. He's gonna, he's going to stay at this level at least even. And with the experience he has and the motivation he has and the mindset, I think he's still going to go faster.
- [32:52]
Spencer Martin
Well, I mean, I guess technically I've picked Derek G. But he is, he does have a time deficit. But if we just look at the two guys I think are most dangerous based on form and time at Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz, pretty interesting that they're both Grand Tour winners. So most likely this race will be won by a rider who's already won a Grand Tour. It's like that fits with people that have won Grand Tours tend to win other grand Tours in the Future, both over 30. So in a race that we saw like, oh, the kids are taking over, like a 21 year old and 22 year old are going to go into, you know, I said this was a two man race too, so clearly that was a silly statement. But we're probably going to have a 30 plus year old winner of this race.
- [33:34]
Johan Berniele
Well, let's see, let's see. You know, we don't know with Del Toro if this was his bad day and yeah, I'm, I'm a bit worried though about Stage 24, Del Toro. That's gonna be a tough one.
- [33:48]
Spencer Martin
I mean, I'm not a scientist, I'm not a training scientist. I also believe that if you're fatigued and you go to higher altitude, not good for you. And that's what we're doing. Which is, yeah, it could just get more complicated. But let's take a quick break and then we'll predict tomorrow's stage. This episode is brought to you by Troscriptions. Here's a question to consider. What do you need right now on your path to health optimization? For some days it's better focus, other days it's deeper sleep or just a clean boost without reaching for another coffee. That's why I've been using troscriptions, a company that's rethinking supplements from the ground up. Their formulas are pharmaceutical grade physician designed and delivered in a completely new way through something called a buccal chokey, a small loss lozenge that dissolves between your cheek and gum and gets to work fast because it bypasses your digestive system and goes straight to your bloodstream. It also makes sure you don't have an upset stomach because you do not have to digest it. Need energy, better sleep, less stress. Troscriptions has you covered and it's all backed by science. Made in the usa. Made in the USA and designed to help you feel your best fast. So to take advantage of this completely new way to optimize your health by heading, head to troscriptions.com themove or enter the move at checkout for 10 off your first order. That's Troscriptions T R O S C R-I P T-I-O-N S.com themove for 10 off your first order. Again, troscription themove for 10% off your first order link in the show Notes.
- [35:21]
Johan Berniele
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- [35:24]
Spencer Martin
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- [35:37]
Johan Berniele
Not everyone trapped by alcohol is an alcoholic.
- [35:40]
Spencer Martin
Families and friends are suffering too. Al Anon and Alatene can help. Call 1-866-2000223 or visit al anon.org help all right, back to the show. All right, so tomorrow stage 17 is 100. I've lost it a 155km long. We start to get into what kind of resembles more traditional high mountains. It is only three categorized climbs but it's a lot of elevation gain. It is a total of 3,800 meters. That is a lot of feet. 5th hardest stage in this race by meters gained and this is one of the easier stages of the third week. That's how hard this third week is. The big highlight is we go over the the Motorola 12.7 km long, 7.6% average. The easy side of it that's still pretty hard climb. Then we descend down into a valley and we kind of climb up and over a little. It's still a tough climb, 3 kilometers long, 8% and then we have a stair step to set down into Borm know to finish the stage which is at the base of the Stelvio. Gonna be tough to actually predict this one. I'll list off the the odds on Unibet and we'll get Johan's take on how it's going to play out. Richard Carapaz is the favorite now. Plus 1100 Julio Pelizar Plus 1200 Isaac del Toro Plus 1400 wow Polls Plus 1400 Tom Pitcock. Plus 1600 Roman Noir Day. Plus 2000 Wild Benar. Plus 2000 Christian Scorroni. Plus 2500 Derek G. Plus 2500 Marco Frigo. Plus 2500 Nicholas Prudhomme. Plus 2500 Pelo Bilbao. Plus 2800 it goes on and on, but the markets think GC Day. What do you think, Johan, and who's going to win?
- [37:22]
Johan Berniele
I think breakaway day. You know, you have Paso del Tonale, who is. Which is a long climb, not very steep. And then the backside of the Mortirolo, which is, as you say, even if it's considered the easier side, is still very hard. And then the terrain afterwards is. Is very lumpy, you know. But I think after today's battle, it's. I. I don't know. I mean, UAE is in pink. They are going to control the gc, but not necessarily the whole race. I don't think so. So I can see a breakaway, a big breakaway. Obviously it's going to be with climbers. I have to be climber to win tomorrow stage. After what I've seen in a few breakaways, and he's been trying a few times. I'm going to pick Payo Bilbao to win the stage. Plus 2800. He was in the break today. He's gonna keep trying. And this is a guy, he's so experienced, he's a veteran and knows how to, how to race and, and go from break breakaways and win from Breakaways. So bow +2800 is my pick to win the stage tomorrow from the break.
- [38:39]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's a good pick. I mean, it's hard if you're, if you're predicting breakaway. It's. It's hard to zero in on a specific rider. I mean, but just looking at this profile, first thing I thought when I saw this two weeks ago, breakaway day. It's going to be hard to control. I don't really know who would want to control it or like, if EF would have the firepower to do so. Pillable bow is a good pick. I'm going to go back to the well, though. The Roman Bardet well, plus 2000. He was, he. I picked him on stage 15. He was actually pretty good on that stage. And I'm just trusting that a rider like that, it's just gonna get better and better. Better, maybe not get better. Everyone else will get worse. The terrain is actually getting better for him. That wasn't a perfect day for him on stage 15. So I'm gonna go Barde from The breakaway.
- [39:22]
Johan Berniele
Okay. Yeah. I mean, he's, he's in there a lot of times, so I think. Yeah. But there is one of those guys who. I think he's in good enough shape to still win one of these stages. Smart rider. So. Yeah, I, I like that. My second pick is also going to be a breakaway rider, Spencer, because I think it's fairly. I mean, if it's gc, it's still gonna be difficult because they're gonna. There's gonna be attacks amongst each other. It's difficult. So I'm gonna go for the second way breakaway. Great writer Marco Frigo Israel Premier Tech. He's been a few times close already to a stage win. He's plus 2500. I think he's in good shape. He was. He tried two days ago, which was his home region, to go in the break, and he tried for a while and finally didn't make it. But he's gonna try again. So he's my second choice to win the stage tomorrow.
- [40:24]
Spencer Martin
I like that pick a lot. Plus 2500. I don't know if you noticed on that stage, but he saw the breakaway, like, was gonna get reshuffled, so he, he had the strength to, like, just rip off the front and then could be part of the second version of the breakaway. Very hard to do that. So, you know, he's in incredibly good shape. My hedge, my wild card, Richard Carapaz plus 1100. Just. We think this is going to be breakaway, which means probably something goofy will happen and it won't be. I, I, it's just, it's. Anytime you're like, it's impossible for it to be GC day, like, you have to be prepared to. For the fact that it will be. And I think he's so good at this type of finish. I think part of the reason it won't be GC is because it is so good for Richard Carapaz in the finish that if you're Simon Yates, like, why you don't want to bring him to the line with time bonuses, and this could be a tight race. These time bonuses can matter. So I'm gonna go carapaz just in case it happens at plus 1100.
- [41:17]
Johan Berniele
Okay.
- [41:19]
Spencer Martin
That's also just been the zero of massive odds for the favorite. Like multiple days where the favorite's been over a plus a thousand, which is interesting.
- [41:29]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, well, I mean, plus plus 1100 for one of the favorites. That's. That's a good price.
- [41:33]
Spencer Martin
So for a writer that we know is probably the strongest writer in the race, in the mountains?
- [41:39]
Johan Berniele
Yeah. Right now. Yeah.
- [41:42]
Spencer Martin
Well, anything else, you know, or. How do you. What do you think's going to happen to Del Toro.
- [41:48]
Johan Berniele
Tomorrow? Yeah, I think tomorrow he's not gonna. No, tomorrow's not gonna, it's not gonna happen. It's. It's too far from the finish and I, I think. How far is the Martirolo from the finish?
- [42:05]
Spencer Martin
It's a problem because it's 50km from the finish.
- [42:08]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, 50k. He's gonna have teammates if he gets in trouble, so I think he'll make it back if that was, that was to happen.
- [42:18]
Spencer Martin
Will they all be working for their top 20s, though? Actually, it's like, it's been a great example of why having four riders in the top 10 actually cannot, can be. Not useful. Yeah, because it's like, think of, think of Carapaz, think of Yates. Like everyone's, there's just no ambiguity in the team. They're the clear GC leaders. Everyone is kind of bought in. Like, think of Wout Van Art takes a lot of buy in to do what he did today.
- [42:44]
Johan Berniele
Well, I think, I think uae they should have, you know, they should have always. I think it was right to have a USO keep going, maybe even with, with, with Del Toro in pink. But the others, you know, like, like Adam Yates and, and Brandon McNulty, they shouldn't have been, I mean, I haven't checked where they are now, but they shouldn't have been so close in gc, you know, once you see that you don't have the legs to podium, then you need, you need to make a choice in a team. And having two guys for GC is plenty. It already creates problems sometimes. So it, you know, it makes things easier also with breakaways, you know, because if you have a guy in the breakaway, you can always decide and at the end, whether he, you know, tries to hang on and try to go for the stage, or ultimately you call him back because you need him in the group of favorites.
- [43:39]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean, let's, let's say Del Toro does hang on to win this. Presumably it will be close because he's what, 30, 26 and 31 seconds in front of the rest of the podium. If you go back to stage 11, they're chasing Carapaz, one of the guys that might end up beating them by a few seconds. Brandon McNulty and Adam Yates are doing that chasing, but they don't chase so hard that they blow up like they are preserving their GC positions. That would be. If he does end up losing this by a little bit. You'd point to that and say that would. That's where it would be helpful to have guys that are just totally bought in. Like, let's pull this back because we don't want to give this guy time. Yeah, for sure. You know, I'm looking at the Motorola. It is very steep at the top. They say it's the easy side. The last 3k are all over 10 average. And it's very high. You know What? It's like six over 6000ft, 1800 meters. But even if you get dropped there, I mean, it would take such an effort to hold someone off to. To bore meo. I don't see it happening. I think he stays in the group.
- [44:44]
Johan Berniele
Yeah, me too.
- [44:45]
Spencer Martin
All right, Johan, thanks. And we will be back tomorrow to break this stage down and then predict stage 18.
- [44:51]
Johan Berniele
Okay, Spencer, speak soon.
- [44:53]
Spencer Martin
All right, bye. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today. Smart choice. Make another smart choice with Auto Quote Explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once. Try it@progressive.com Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy.