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Giro d'Italia Stage 8 Analysis & Stage 9 Preview | THEMOVE+
00:42:08
Johan Bruyneel and Spencer Martin discuss today's stage of the Giro d'Italia, which Jayco-AlUla's Luke Plapp won with a long-range breakaway and saw Primož Roglič intentionally cede the race lead to XDS-Astana's Diego Ulissi. They discuss Plapp's...
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- [00:00]
Spencer Martin
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- [00:21]
Johan Bernille
I would say the win for Ayuso is another one more mentally than the time gap. It's only one second, but again he gets a little bit of time. Not much, but it's time on on Roglic and if Roglic has really good legs and he's in good position, he would never let that happen. So it's a bit of a mental victory of UAE over Red Bull and of are you so over Roglic. But it doesn't have a big impact on. On what's. What's to come.
- [00:55]
Spencer Martin
Everybody, welcome back to the Move Plus. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernille. We are breaking down stage eight of the Giro d', Italia, which was won by PLA with Wilco Kelderman in second, Diego U in third. Oi took the overall lead from Primos Roglich or was gifted it, however you want to look at it with Lorenzo Fortunato, his XDS Asana teammate, moving into second. And then Roglich now 17 seconds back. And then we'll preview tomorrow's critical stage nine and we'll get Johan's take on how it's going to play out, who's going to win and how it will affect the gc. First, I'm going to give us a little primer. Johan was busy today at the Yan Ulrich the. The preamble to the Yan Ulrich Cycling Festival tomorrow in the Black Forest. So he didn't really catch a lot of the stage. So I will. I will catch him up on the key details, then we'll talk. I have a few questions for him about why. About what happened and then why it happened. But the stage started. This was probably the hardest stage of the race so far, just because the break. It's 197 kilometer long stage. The break doesn't go until about 110k to go. So it's almost a. Not what almost a 90 kilometer fight for the breakaway, which is brutal because they're going all out that entire time. Interestingly, Mads Pedersen, one of the first riders out the front, puts a really impressive turn of work in until the first sprint at 147k to go. And then while this is happening there, it's the washing machine effect behind riders are attacking. Riders are getting pulled in. While Van Art was quite active, Pedersen picks up max points at that sprint point sits up in the issue is all these moves are going, but if you're a team like Pulte, visit Malta. If you're not in the break, you're not allowed on the team bus. So all these moves are just going to get pulled back. Everyone knows Roglic wants to give the jersey up, so they know the breakaway is going to have a chance to stay away. It was almost like a lot of the tension of the race so far was being unleashed because the breakaway riders were thinking, now's the. Now's the time. Now's the time. Big break finally goes. With about 110k to go, Luke Plat Bridge is up a little late and that, that proved to be the. The winning move of the race. There was two VMA was quite active. Two Visma riders. Dylan Van Barrel pushing the pace pretty hard. The. The br. The problem is the break went and then they hit the hardest climb of the day. It was like a 13 kilometer long climb right in the middle of the stage. Dylan Van Barle says this, this group's too big. They're never going to work together. So he's trying to break it up on the climb. Wilco Kelderman eventually ends up in the front split of that breakaway. They Visma probably feels pretty good about it. Unfortunately, Luke Plapp bridges up to that move and then Luke Bla attacks. And it was impressive. He was in a massive gear, just like it was. 45.6k to go, I believe. And he soloed from there. It was really an impressive move. Like he looked to me if you told me like that guy's going to win a Grand Tour someday. I'm not saying he's he is, but I would say that that sounds about right. He looked that strong because he held off a chasing group, which was motivated because Wilco Ketterman was behind him with Diego Ulisi, who was riding for the overall lead because his teammate Lorenzo Fortunato was with him at one point and he was the highest on the GC in the breakaway. Two and a half minutes back on the race lead. The problem is Fortunato's dropped and then Elise became the leader, the leader on the road or the virtual leader. So Alici is working with Kelderman because he wants the the pink jersey. They still can't pull in. Plap PLA wins by with the 38 second gap. Kilderman and then Alici were in that group very strangely. Igor Arieta from UAE fourth a minute and 22 back. And then kind of things kept interesting, things kept being doled out to us because UAE takes the front probably to try to keep Red Bull in the jersey. They're pressing the pace on some of the final climbs. Tom Pitcock is attacking with Juo on the last climb back in the GC group. And then Juana USO attacks into the finish line. He. He ends up getting one second on Roglic who looked, probably should have been right on his wheel. He looked quite easy pulling back to a. Doesn't quite get back to him. But the end effect is Red Bull does not get the gap they wanted, I assume because now they're only 17 seconds out of the race lead. They'll probably just have it back, I guess if everything goes well in the time trial. That can't be exactly what they wanted out of the stage. But Johan. But before we get into like any of the, I guess the, the moves within moves, the wheels within wheels. Like, what was your take on Luke Plapp winning the stage? He's super talented writer. Shockingly, this was not only his first World tour stage win, it was only his second win in his career outside of Australian national championship. So it's been a long time coming for him. Very good rider. Like, I know it gets overused, but he's a classy rider. He looked very, very good off the front. I still can't believe he stayed away so easily.
- [05:46]
Johan Bernille
Yeah. Well, first of all, Spencer, apologies to you and to our viewers and our listeners. I haven't been able to watch the stage, but thank you for just bringing me up to speed with the play by play of events. So, I mean, I have a pretty good idea now of how the stage developed. Luke Plop, great win, as you say. I think this guy has a huge engine. His lack of winning races in Europe for the moment. I, I have heard that he has some issues riding in the peloton. His background, he's a track rider and especially individual pursuit and team pursuit. You know, he's. He's able to push, you know, great Watts. Multiple Australian champion time trial on the road. We all know that Luke Plop is considered to be one of the big engines of the peloton and, and strangely enough hasn't won a lot of races outside of Australia. He's been a few times close. I've seen him already a few times in the Giro. Precisely to be second, third. Was beaten by usually a smarter guy would. I wouldn't say a stronger guy, but a smarter guy. And today was a display of power. You know, he, as you mentioned, he bridged up to the break when everybody else was out of legs. And then he goes with considerable, I mean, like 48 kilometers to go. That's. That's very far from the finish to go from already a select group. I did see a flash of his attack on that climb. As you say, massive gears, big power. But it was clear that at that moment, I think he already dropped Bardet, if I'm not mistaken. Yeah, you know, to drop Barde on a climb, you have to be good, good legs. Even if Bardette is, you know, not at his best for the moment. But when he went, it was clear that everybody was dead. You know, they all tried. Nobody could follow him. Even Calderman couldn't follow him, who was, in my opinion, the guy that Visma had put forward to try to win the stage. And Galderman is a very good rider. So it's nice to see Luke Plop win a big, big race like this, especially if you consider, if I'm not mistaken, he's been dealing with quite a bit of injuries. And especially this year, he was in good shape as usual in Tour down under. It was fifth, sixth or something. And then for some reason, he had a crash, injured his wrist. I don't know if it was a fracture or. But he already had problems with his wrist before, the year before. I seem to remember somewhere that he had to have some kind of surgery to correct either this injury or an old injury. And he came into the game quite late. Then he won a stage in Greece in a, you know, a smaller race, but for some reason he couldn't really continue on that form. Had a bit of a disaster of a start because he crashed in the time trial on his own. He's a time trial specialist and I know that he went into that time trial with big ambitions to do a top result. He crashed, had to recover from that. And now finally, you know, in. After. After a week of racing, he gets that, that nice win. It was also nice to see him really speak very highly of Matt White, who, as we know, has left the team all of a sudden about a week ago, just before the Giro. I think White was supposed to be at the Giro as the head ds, and Luke Plop was very, very. Speaking very highly of Matt. His support he had from the beginning when he went to the Australian team, and now in the last year and a half when he had some struggles. So that was nice to see I mean as we all know, Matt White is, is one of my ex writers on Postal. And yeah, I, I wish him all the best in, in the future after this surprising change of situation. But it was nice to see one of the top riders of Jake Walula appraise Matt White and his impact and his influence he had on the team. But yeah, I mean it was in the makings for a few years already. You know, this, this, this stage win in a ground tour with Luke Plapp and now finally he gets it in a very spectacular way because attacks from so far, not a lot of people can do that.
- [10:51]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, no, he made it look like a tap in too. But I was thinking when he attacked, I just, I told my family, I was like, well, race is over, like he's got it. But then if you think about it like 50k after a race that hard, that's not easy. Crazy fact about Luke Plapp, he's 24 years old. I mean I've never seen a Palmares like this. He's 24. He had not won a professional race. Like if we don't count national championships as a professional race, he had won one until this year. But he had three career Australian road titles, which is a very good cycling country, and three career individual time trial titles from Australia. So that's really impressive. And just like, I mean to sum up the good and the bad of Luke Plapp, I think it was last year at Milano, San Remo. I think he entered the Poggio. He entered Chapressa. Maybe the last wheel obviously dropped. Right. Because you can't. That's such a technical climb. You have to be placed well, catches back on before the Poggio and then his last wheel and then I, he gets dropped. But it's just like to be last wheel on those climbs coming down the road, I mean you're putting out like race winning power to do that. And then he showed today he does have that race winning power. I mean, I feel a little bad. Like Visma clearly had a plan. Like they did everything right but nothing they could have done would have won them the stage because Luke Blapp was just that strong. Like they did as well as they could. Kelly. If Platt would have missed the move, Kelderman would have won. But Luke Plapp just too strong. Great. It's great for the team. Yeah, it's a little bittersweet about the Matt White situation, I felt.
- [12:23]
Johan Bernille
Yeah. You know, I mean, also, I mean speaking of Luke Plop, I think if you would take a closer look at his results on the track in individual pursuit and stuff. And see the times he has produced there. That's the real proof of his big engine. He's, he's been a super, super powerful velo drum rider, track rider and yeah, I mean if a guy like that, if things are right for once and they have a good day, then yeah, they go and just doesn't look back and did 48, so 48 kilometers. So that's basically yeah, 12, 12 individual pursuits after each other of four kilometers.
- [13:10]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, just stack 12 IPs. Actually kind of reminds me a little bit of our colleague Bradley Wiggins. Just that type of pure track power unleashed on the road. I don't know if he'll go on to the same success, but just a few odds and ends. Mads Pedersen, after Today he is 153points in the points classification. Second place is 59. So he's almost wrapped it up. As long as he stays in this race and stays healthy, he will win the points jersey. Kom a little bit. Lorenzo Fortunato continues to add. He has 98, Juan Uso 50 in second place. So it's not, the book is not closed on that. ISO has more points actually than I would expect at this point. But just to have that be our transition to go back to the GC group further down the road, I mean if I'm going to be honest, we didn't see it. We didn't see as much of it. Maybe I should have had the multi camera view on. But we saw a lot of the breakaway, the GC group. They had Jens Voight call. I think he like called Ralph Dank mid stage and asked him if they're trying to give the jersey away. Ralph Dank confirmed. Yes, they are trying to give the jersey away. But they almost. It got complicated because I think they wanted to give it to Fortunato. They had it. It was almost a six minute gap at a certain point. But Fortunato gets dropped from the front group in the breakaway and is minutes behind the front group. So at a certain point it was touch and go about whether they were going to be able to successfully give the jersey away. At a certain point it looked like they were going to give it to Fortune Auto and Fortunato would hold it through the time trial, which would have been ideal because then you don't have it for that monotonous second week.
- [14:46]
Johan Bernille
Yeah.
- [14:47]
Spencer Martin
But then Bahrain, I think they start to think Red Bull might not get rid of this. They could start going to the front, setting a little pace back in the. In The GC group and then UAE comes to the front, setting a pace complicates it. And then they only have it by 17. They only have given it away by 17 seconds. If you were a director here, Johan, like, what would your plan have been going into this and would you be.
- [15:10]
Johan Bernille
That's not, that's not a great situation. You know, you lose it, but it's as if you haven't lost it. Because with the two stages now, I mean with the gravel stage tomorrow, it's going to be nervous. You need to be in front. You need to have your team make tempo to make sure that Primos and especially Primus is in front on those gravel sectors. And then the time trial, there's no way Ulissi and Fortunato are going to keep that, that slight advantage on, on Primo. So it's basically back to square one. I think the plan was to, to, to get rid of the jersey, but as you say, probably to Fortunato a lot better. He was the best placed in gc. And it also shows that, you know, these battles for these other classifications, like the, the mountains jersey takes, it's tall. You know, like Fortunato is in great shape, but he's been sprinting, he's been going in attacks day after day. And then you come into a situation where there's a few strong guys in the breakaway and finally you just don't have the legs to follow the strongest guys anymore. If you look at the composition of the breakaway, initially you would say, okay, ideal. You know, this is, this is an Italian rider in good shape. You know, he sure he can go up decently uphill, but he's not a threat for GC in the final week. XDS are going to try to defend this jersey every day they can. And so yeah, that didn't turn out the way they wanted it to turn out. It's still xds, but it's too Lee and it's not enough time.
- [16:54]
Spencer Martin
Okay.
- [16:54]
Johan Bernille
You know it, you can, you can try. I mean, it doesn't always work that the work out the way you think it's going to work out. And nobody foresee that Fortunato would not be able to follow the first three, four riders of the stage today.
- [17:09]
Spencer Martin
Well, he finished. There's this climb, it's called the Sasso. Sasso.
- [17:12]
Johan Bernille
Tetto Teti.
- [17:14]
Spencer Martin
I assume that's like close to the Grand Sasso. Same, same region of the country. Big climb in the middle of the stage. Fortunata's first over. It gets 40k points, which is A lot. And I think that just sapped him. And it's like we're kind of talking about that yesterday, where these writers who are going for the kombucha, that's hard for them to contest the stage. I wouldn't say disaster. I mean, he could always slow pedal the time trial. I guess Roglich could that. Would he get out of the jersey if he did that? Just see it a few minutes to. Are you. So then have to worry.
- [17:45]
Johan Bernille
Never gonna happen. Never gonna happen. I mean. No, I. I hope you're joking.
- [17:50]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I was thinking of, like, really dumb tweets I could send out and be pretending to be serious. I mean, that was one of them that he could. Yeah. Just give it away in the time trial. What's the big deal?
- [18:01]
Johan Bernille
Yeah, no, I mean, their plan was to not defend the jersey, but didn't turn out the way they hoped. But hey, you know, it's. It's not the end of the world.
- [18:15]
Spencer Martin
What. What did you think of. What if I told you Tom Pickock is attacking on the final climb, five minutes behind the race lead? What would you say about that?
- [18:26]
Johan Bernille
That's weird.
- [18:28]
Spencer Martin
I didn't get it.
- [18:29]
Johan Bernille
Yeah. Is he trying to test his legs for tomorrow? I don't know. I don't know. I don't know. You know, it makes. Doesn't make much sense to me, especially if, you know that the stage win is gone. It's hard for me to. To think that Pitcock really believes that he's going to be top NGC and tomorrow's a great stage for him. So I. I don't really understand why he was attacking at the end.
- [19:00]
Spencer Martin
Maybe they thought they won't chase me, but. What. Something interesting happened because Juan was riding his wheel. Roglich was further back, like in the group, maybe caught a little off guard, like, whoa, what's going on here? And then we get to the final kilometer and we don't see a lot of it because we're just focused on, you know, it's like classic. Like, oh, the. The breakaway is coming in, all these riders are coming in. GC group is coming in. And you see Juan come to the final corner with a few hundred meters to go. Like, he's. The guy's coming down the straight at Tulsa. Tough Brady Village Criterium. Like, flying through the corner and then just starts sprinting as hard as he can out of the saddle. Has kind of a sizable gap. Roglich is on the wheel of Chacone. Probably should have been on the wheel of ISO, but we don't know. Maybe ISO came from deep in the field, and it caught him by surprise. Varagas does a pretty good job. He never gets out of the saddle. He just is kind of in the saddle, doing his rockledge spin, gets close to Iuso, but he does lose a second to him. AO gains a second sprinting for 11th place. You think, okay, I guess mathematically that's good. I to go by my own code. I did say every second could count here, so let's chalk that up. Good. You got a second. That's a big old effort, though. And it kind of reminded me a little bit of Tadipogacha 2023 tour, where he's like, you know, sprinting for 11th place, 12th place to beat Jonas Vindigo, but no time bonuses available. Like, that's not usually when you want to be using a sprint effort. Like, what did you make of that?
- [20:28]
Johan Bernille
Well, obviously, I think. Are you. So when he went. I don't know if the same situation was like yesterday, that he saw Roglic a bit out of position, he would obviously have. His attack was intended. Intended to have more seconds, four or five seconds. I would say the win for A is another one more mentally than the time gap. It's only one second, but again, he gets a little bit of time. Not much, but it's time on. On Roglich. And if Roglic has really good legs and he's in good position, he would never let that happen. So it's a bit of a mental victory of UAE over Red Bull and of over Rogulate, but it doesn't have a big impact on. On what's. What's to come.
- [21:20]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I mean, second day in a row.
- [21:22]
Johan Bernille
It's the second day in a row that Roglich is not able to follow. Are you so.
- [21:27]
Spencer Martin
But true or false, the Giro to tie will be decided by sprints on stages seven and eight. It's probably false. Correct.
- [21:35]
Johan Bernille
No, false. Yeah.
- [21:36]
Spencer Martin
And then if you. If we. I think we had this conversation off mic, but if you assume energy is finite. No, we were talking about this on the show. Any energy you spend in this first week, if you don't get something for it, it's not well spent. So that, I mean, the.
- [21:53]
Johan Bernille
He got a second. He got us.
- [21:55]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, he got a second. Yeah. Yeah. Well, we'll talk about. Actually, I think these intermediate bonuses probably are literally more of like. Like, think when, like, I use. Or del Toro came in on the intermediate sprint in front of a. That actually would be a better way to be Giving Iuso seconds to not have that happen. But an interesting thing that almost happened is it almost meant Roglic was stuck in the jersey because it was tight enough at that point. And I uso surging, pickax surging on the final climb. I used to surgeon in the final. Almost ate away the gaps advantage, the brakes advantage to the point where it almost stuck Roglich back in the jersey. I don't even know if they knew that was a possibility or if they were thinking.
- [22:38]
Johan Bernille
Yeah, no, I don't. I mean, I don't. I don't think so. I mean, you can't calculate that precisely in the final of a stage. But listen, it's. It's another confirmation that Ayuso is in great shape, that UAE is very present in the front of the race all the time with several riders, and that Roglic is a little bit on his own except for Pizzari. I mean, I haven't seen the stage, but I assume Palizzari was the only guy the final with with Roglic, right?
- [23:12]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. And it's just like yesterday, he was there and he looks good, but he looks green, you know, sometimes almost like I don't know what I'm supposed to be doing. And I don't say that in like, a mean way. Just like yesterday, it was like, okay, I'm here, Roglic, like, where. What. What should I do? Which makes Sense because he's 21 years old and he has not been on a big team before. Also, what if I told you UAE put a rider in the breakaway, Igor Arieta, and he was. He was riding hard even when the wind was up the road. I don't know if I fully understand that.
- [23:40]
Johan Bernille
I don't understand either, Spencer. Makes no sense. Okay. I did hear Arieta's interview after the stage. It was not the purpose that it was not the plan. It. You know, it, then it's possible, you know, especially if there's good. If there's big groups, that you're following the moves and that you're in it by accident. I would say, you know, sometimes people have difficulties understanding, oh, I'm in the break, and I didn't want to be in the break, but I'm in it anyway. It does happen, right? If you have. If you're you. If your job is to follow the moves, to make sure that big group, there's no big groups going, and all of a sudden you're in it, and then it's up to the, you know, what the decision is, has to be made. This is a young rider. You also want to give them certain opportunities in certain stages. If you look at the composition of the breakaway, it's kind of hard to. To. To imagine that Igor Arieta was going to win the stage with these snipers present with. With lots of experience for stage wins, so you can be in it. But in this case, I think the.
- [24:54]
Spencer Martin
You know, UAE should maybe have called.
- [24:57]
Johan Bernille
Him back or otherwise have him sit on because it's. It's a young rider. The effort of today's stage, which was a hard stage and they have been a long time out there and the guy has raced full gas in the final. He will, he will feel that in the recovery, maybe tomorrow he's not fully recovered when they really need him. It's a possibility. So thinking long term, I am not a fan of sending a guy in the break. If you're the theme of one of the big favorites and you kind of are almost sure he's not going to win the stage.
- [25:37]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, he's exactly the writer, the type of writer they need to do work. They have a lot of big names. Igor Arizona should be first in the list of. Are you ready to do your job today? I'd also say, like opportunity. Shm opportunity. Like we're here trying to slay a vampire like Prima's Ragodic. It's impossible to beat this man. Like this guy wins more than anyone. Like he could win. He could make chicken salad out of chicken shit. Like he's such a good bike racer. Like, we all need to be focused on beating this guy. Like we can't be going in breakaways doing our own thing. Like we're in a dog fight here. So I just. I thought it was a strange. Maybe. Maybe it was an accident like you said, and they just decided to roll with it.
- [26:17]
Johan Bernille
Yeah, yeah, that's most likely what happened. I mean, especially if you hear him after the stage. He said this was not the plan. I was in it. And then once they saw the situation, then they gave him the free card to. To go for it. But yeah, I'm not a fan of this tactics.
- [26:36]
Spencer Martin
Well, do you have anything else on today, Johan, before we move on to preview stage nine?
- [26:42]
Johan Bernille
I mean, the only thing I can say is that a stage like today and yesterday and tomorrow, so it's accumulates the fatigue. These are three not very easy stages. It's not mountain stages, but they're hard and this is difficult to recover from. So yesterday's effort over a very hard stage. Today, hard stage, especially with the fast speeds in the beginning of the stage could have their toll tomorrow for certain riders. When. I mean, tomorrow is a really important stage. I'm not expecting huge differences. You know, it's, it's. There's a few sectors of Strada Bianche. It's not Strada Bianche. Let's. Let's be clear. It's not Strada Bianche and it's not the same peloton, Estrada Bianca. And usually what happens is you can see it also sometimes in the Tour when there's a stage with cabos or some sectors of Paridobe. It's never Paridobe. It's a completely different race. And tomorrow will be the same thing, I think.
- [27:48]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, that's a good point. It is really different in a way that's kind of even hard to articulate. But just to move on to tomorrow. Well, let's take a quick break to hear from some partners and then we will preview stage nine and Johan's going to tell us who's going to win it. All right, Johan. So stage nine from Jubio Gubio to Siena. I assume this is in Tuscany. 181km. The big. The big things you need to know. There are four gravel sectors, maybe a little bit more, but for three big ones, one of them, the first one is downhill, pretty interesting. And this, the third one is like 10 kilometers long. Net uphill. Quite a bit net uphill. The favorites I will list in a second, but we should say it's going to be incredibly important for GC favorites to be at the front because anything could happen. And then it finishes on. I know we were discussing if this has ever happened at the zero. I don't remember it ever happening. But it finishes in the Piazza del Campo, which is where Strada Bianchi finishes. The reason this is important is because that climb is. Is seriously hard up to the. The Piazza. Like, that's a really. I think it's about a kilometer long. I don't know how steep it is, but it's. It's steep enough that Wild Bernard fell off his bike with cramps the first time he did this race. So, you know, it's. It's quite difficult and it is cobbled. It's not easy. You really have to be well positioned going into it. People will be nervous about this day. This day could be quite significant for the GC. The favorites on BET365 to win, as you would imagine. Tom Pickock plus 450. Big heavy favorite, Matus V plus 900 W Vanart plus 1000 Mads Petterson plus 1200 Juana Uso plus 1400 Isaac del Toro plus 1400 Primos Roglich. Plus 1800 Pello Bilbao. Plus 1800 Egan Bernal. Plus 2500 Eduardo Zambonini. Plus 2500 Julia Chone. Plus 3300 Christian Scron. Plus 4000 Quentin Herman's plus 4000. Have not heard his name in a minute, but I think the win probably comes from one of those. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out and who's going to win?
- [29:52]
Johan Bernille
As I said before, Spencer, you know it's not Strada Bianche, right? I know. And even if we all know the final climb into Siena, this is also not the same as at the end of a one day classic Strada Bianche, which is now more than 200km with a lot of gravel sectors. And everybody arrives dead at that last climb. This is completely different. Personally, I don't expect huge problems for the GC guys. The last climb, it's. It's not like, it's not like yesterday, for example, the last kilometer of, of that climb, it's not as steep. So I, I don't think that there will be big differences. This is not a climb, for example, where I could see, are you so do what he did yesterday. So I think it's more a stage where it's going to be very nervous. It could be amongst the guys from gc, especially because the gravel sectors are long. The peloton is going to be nervous if there's a breakaway only by the stress in the peloton. The speed will go up and they will not be very far ahead. I think, you know, if you look, as you said, the first gravel sector, in my opinion is the most important one. It's 8km long. You come into it downhill and then so that's going to be very fast, very nervous. And then it goes uphill. And then the last gravel sector, it's only 2.3km long, but there's some steep, steep, steep parts in there. Yeah. I also have to mention, Spencer, I am, I am not a fan of these things. In ground tours, I know people want to see spectacle and they want to see, you know, different kind of racing. But this is nervous for everybody, the teams, the mechanics, you know, the choice of equipment, for example, is a difficult one because there's three long sectors. But are they really going to be decisive in the race? So what do you do with tire. With tire pressure? The majority of the race is on Good roads, and then you have three sectors of around 9km. So it's a lot of stress. And somebody can lose the Grand Tour on a stage like this because of bad luck. So I'm not a fan of this, but, hey, that's what people want to see. I'm going to choose Vatsek again to win the stage tomorrow. I think he can win in both scenarios. Even if it's all together, he's strong. He can. This, this, this kind of course is based. Is way within his capacities, and he can win from a breakaway. He's my favorite to win tomorrow.
- [32:54]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's really good pick. Plus 900. So the, the obvious one, Tom Pidcock, I, I do not like this pick because he's close enough in the gc. I don't think he can get in the breakaway. I, I just. I think people don't trust his intentions at this race, and he's not a guy you'd want to give time to voluntarily because you don't know what's going to happen, especially if you're going for podium, you're going for top five, and you get that whole situation where people start chasing people that might challenge their top 10. That's a real thing, especially with points on the line. Also, I, I frankly think if he comes to the line with Vatsek, he does not win. I think Vyck is stronger than him. I think he could beat him on that final climb. W Benart good today. I don't know if he's good enough to win. I'm going to go. This might be crazy. Mads Pedersen plus 1200. I think Petterson, I mean, he looked really good today off the front. Getting those points just like, made it look clinical. The final climb could be a little too hard for him. But I guess it just depends, you know what? You don't have to be if you're running from a bear. You don't have to be faster than the bear. You have to be faster than the person you're against. So we don't know who he's coming to the line with. I think if he comes to the line with the right group of people, he could win this at plus 1200. And it's. He's a very powerful writer. I think he won't be so bothered by the, the gravel. The gravel sections.
- [34:18]
Johan Bernille
Yeah. And he could also be in a breakaway.
- [34:21]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. And no one's going to care if he is, which is the important part.
- [34:26]
Johan Bernille
So you realize, you're realizing, Spencer, we're picking the little Tech guys all the time.
- [34:31]
Spencer Martin
Well, there's an expiration date on this. They will. They will get tired eventually. Yeah, it might be around tomorrow. So where we are playing with fire today, I mean, a little. Makes me a little uneasy, actually, today, where it's like, no little trek in the breakaway was that intense, intentional. Like, is this. Were they saving up, or are they already running out of energy because of everything they put in so far?
- [34:55]
Johan Bernille
Yeah, it could be. I'm sure that they focused on the first week of this zero. We're already past the week now, so it's gonna end at some point. But anyway, even if they don't win anything anymore for the rest of the zero, and, you know, Patterson, if, you know, except accident or illness will most likely win the points jersey. And they won three stages already, so their Giro is a big success already. Second choice, I think. I think I'm gonna go for Pitcock. He's not going to be in the break, but if. If it's all together, I think that the gravel sections, sectors, he will have no problem. Let's not forget, he was the only guy who could follow today. Pogacha and Strada Bianche until he couldn't follow anymore. But. And that last climb is. Should not be a problem for him. He won't get dropped there. Question is, can he win in a sprint? But I think we have to. We have to consider and value the. The. The talent of Tom Pidcock. He's a classy rider and has a huge talent, so he's going to be my second choice to win the stage.
- [36:17]
Spencer Martin
Well, the thing is, let's imagine that scenario. I don't know if he beats the UAE boys. That's. That's my big concern. So my wild card, Isaac del Toro plus 1400 only because I think they're getting way too cute with this race. And they're going to say, well, Juana, you so won a stage. So it's now Del Toro's chance to win a stage. And probably Del Toro or probably ISO should go for it because the time bonus. But both these guys look so powerful to the point where, if I was working for Red Bull Aura, I would be having nightmares about how powerful they look. I think either of them could, because, you know, it's that steep climb, and then it kind of like, flattens out. Like, both of those guys could really do some damage where it flattens out going into the piazza. I'm going to pick Del Toro. I think he's really. And this stage is kind of perfect for him if you can get through the gravel. One thing I heard about Mets Pederson yesterday is from Brian Nard. So he would know. Apparently, Pederson, after he wasn't selected for the Tour, said, it's going to suck for the team because I'm going to win all the stages. They're going to lose so much money on all the stages. I went at the Giro to tell you that they're going to have to pay me in time in bonuses. So.
- [37:22]
Johan Bernille
Okay. Okay.
- [37:23]
Spencer Martin
He's. He's motivated away.
- [37:26]
Johan Bernille
Good attitudes. I like that.
- [37:27]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Yeah. But, yeah, I think Del Toro, if he wins a stage, I mean, this one obviously. This obviously has Pidcock written all over it, but I just don't think he's more powerful than these two UAE guys at the moment.
- [37:44]
Johan Bernille
Yeah. And Vatsic.
- [37:47]
Spencer Martin
And. I mean, Vatsic. Yeah. And. And can pick up. I. I don't know. I don't fully understand what's. If I was him, I'd be saying, like, oh, I personally think.
- [37:56]
Johan Bernille
Spencer, if it's. I personally think if it's. If it's still. And. And Peterson and Vatsic are there. Pedersen sacrifices himself for Vatsek to try to win stage.
- [38:07]
Spencer Martin
That's probably right.
- [38:09]
Johan Bernille
Yeah.
- [38:09]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I would. I could see that happening. I'm switching Vodsik. Better climber, probably. I mean, he. He was even. I was rewatching yesterday's stage. He was there until, like, a K to go. So very good climber. Will not, as you say, this is not nearly as hard as yesterday's stage, so he won't be as bothered by it.
- [38:29]
Johan Bernille
Yeah.
- [38:30]
Spencer Martin
Anything else about and you're not a fan of it? I think I'm getting older because I think I'm becoming less of a fan of these stages, too. They feel a little bit like a gimmick. I used to love them. I am curious to watch this, and I think it will be an exciting stage.
- [38:44]
Johan Bernille
Spencer. I repeat myself every single time when a stage like that comes up in a Grand Tour. But I would invite everybody to ask around in the peloton, riders and teams and staff, what they would prefer. And they would. 90% would say, oh, no, we don't want stages like this in a Grand Tour, especially the teams who have a GC ambitions, because the risk is so high that something happens and you lose everything you've been working for for months. Yeah. And we're talking about road racing, man. Scrabble.
- [39:22]
Spencer Martin
I will say. Do you know what the most popular stage was from the Tour last year? The One like everyone was buzzing about. Yeah. The TWA stage. On stage. Yeah, the gravel stage.
- [39:33]
Johan Bernille
Yeah, yeah, I understand, I understand. It is spectacular. It's. It's nice. But it's nice for those who are not in it.
- [39:44]
Spencer Martin
Or can you imagine the staff too? It's. Yeah.
- [39:46]
Johan Bernille
No, it's, it's.
- [39:47]
Spencer Martin
Even the equipment would be a pain. Yeah, yeah.
- [39:49]
Johan Bernille
And you know, I mean every time you, especially every time you had either a cobble sector or a gravel sector, you're first of all with the car, you're helpless. There's nothing you can do. You're far behind, there's dust, you don't see anything and you just hope that they don't call your numbers. With mechanical problems or crashes, it is very, very stressful.
- [40:15]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. I mean that some one of these guys in the GC will get a flat on a gravel sector. It will be a problem.
- [40:23]
Johan Bernille
Yeah.
- [40:24]
Spencer Martin
I guess. I assume the team cars are ordered Astona's first. Yeah.
- [40:29]
Johan Bernille
You see the GC and the up and reverse.
- [40:33]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Which does matter. But I guess the big ones, uae.
- [40:38]
Johan Bernille
Red Bull and also, and also logistically for teams and especially because it's. These gravel sectors are so long. They will have people, staff. Staff members covering these gravel sectors and probably on certain sectors at several points, you know, one. One in the middle and one at the end to have people there with wheels. At least with wheels to, to. Actually, I don't know if you're allowed to take a wheel from, from the side of the road in a Grand Tour. I haven't checked the rules, but something.
- [41:16]
Spencer Martin
Question.
- [41:17]
Johan Bernille
Something tells me that it's not allowed. Used to be in a one day. In a one day race it is, but I'm not sure. Actually, I'm not sure.
- [41:28]
Spencer Martin
Well, let's watch for that. Now I'm curious to see if there's anyone out there, but I. Yeah, I think it will be exciting, I guess. Is it. Is it ethical? We could debate forever, but Johan, thanks for. For jumping in and just programming note we won't have a show tomorrow. There will be a regular. The move on the rest day on Monday and then we'll be back to our normal schedule after that.
- [41:51]
Johan Bernille
So the move on the rest day which will be a recap of week one.
- [41:58]
Spencer Martin
Yes.
- [41:58]
Johan Bernille
In this case the first nine stages.
- [42:03]
Spencer Martin
Probably an emphasis on tomorrow's stage. Unless it's a total snoozer. I guess we don't know what's going to happen. Yeah. It will be us explaining to George what has happened so far in this race. All right. Well, thanks, Johan.
- [42:17]
Johan Bernille
And okay, thanks.
- [42:19]
Spencer Martin
All right, bye.