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Giro d'Italia Week 2 Breakdown | THEMOVE
00:48:59
Johan Bruyneel, George Hincapie, and Spencer Martin break down Sunday's stage 15 of the Giro d'Italia, which saw Carlos Verona take the win with a long-range solo attack and the GC come to life with UAE's Isaac del Toro easily defending his race lead...
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- [00:00]
George Hincapie
But it could also be that perhaps they're not fully confident in Del Toro's third week. You know, power. After being such a young guy that has never been in this position, being in the pink jersey every day, having to do press conferences, getting back to the hotel later than everybody else, 21 years old. There's got to be some questions there as well. I would. I would guess.
- [00:26]
Spencer Martin
Everybody, welcome back to the Move. I am Spencer Martin. I'm here with Jo George Shankappe and Johan Berniel. We are discussing how the second week of the Giro d' Italia played out and what we expect to happen in the third week. Just a quick primer in case you haven't been following along. The last stage was stage 15 yesterday. A mountain stage, kind of a strange mountain stage with the hardest. Another one of these stages, but the hardest climb right in the middle. And then a long climb, a 16k climb, but up to a plateau, finishing in Asiago. We've done this a few times in the recent past is. It's always a chase between the breakaway and the GC group. But Carlos Verona from Little Track won with a 44.44kilometer solo breakaway for little track sixth win of this Giro Italia. But the big news was behind. Isaac Del Toro was following every move, being chased by his UAE team, and eventually dislodging Primus Raglich, who lost, I believe, 90 seconds by the finish line. And we're going into a brutal third week, apparently the hardest third week at the Gird Italia in 25 years. We will get George and Johan take on how this is going to play out. But first, let's take a quick ad break to hear from our partners, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Element. One thing keeps us going at the Tour de France when we're in Aspen, doing the show in person. Real tough times, you know, doing a show a day, having to go out and ride our bike in the summer sun. And that's the Element electrolyte drink mix. It's packed with 100 milligrams of sodium, 200 milligrams of potassium, and 60 milligrams of magnesium. No sugar, no gluten, no BS. And while they send it along for Lance and George, full disclosure, the rest of us, we're swiping it. We're taking. We're taking a few packets from that box. I've got some right here in my hand. I brought it home from the Flanders Live show in Austin. And they're sparkling water. That's also an electrolyte drink mix that's fantastic way to fuel yourself after a long day of podcasting before you go out for a ride. And I don't know if I could give a bigger endorsement of this product than to say I'm a real life paying customer. Customer development and my personal favorite is the Citrus Salt Electrolyte Drink Mix. But the sample pack is a perfect place for you to start. You get one of every flavor. Citrus, raspberry, orange, watermelon, and even chocolate. It's great if you want to try them all and hook a friend up if you don't like some of them. And best of all, if you don't like it, you can just say it and Element will refund you. There's literally no risk. Get your free 8 count sample pack with element with any element purchase at drink element.com the move that's drink and then literally lmnt.com themove spelled out T-E M O V E. Be sure to try their new Elementi or Element Sparkling water, a bold 16 ounce can of Sparky sparkling electrolyte water. It's fantastic. I'm just gonna go off script here and just say, just don't even think about it. Just buy it because it's that good. Hey everybody. This episode is brought to you by Tushy. What if I told you the most luxurious seat in your house might actually be your toilet? I've been using the Tushy Cloud plus bidet and it's complet changed the game. Installation took me less than 10 minutes and I can't do anything. No plumber, no drama and it instantly upgraded the entire vibe of my bathroom. The design is sleek. This seat is heated in the warm water spray. Way more effective and way more comfortable than toilet paper. Honesty. Honestly, it feels cleaner, faster and better for my skin. Another thing people don't realize that toilet paper, those wipes that's clogging up your toilets. So whether you are a homeowner, you don't want that. You're going to have to deal with that problem eventually. You get one of these installed, not a problem. And if you're a landlord, put it in your rental units so your your tenants aren't clogging up the pipes. You don't want that. And the Cloud plus even deodorizes the air the moment you sit down, which is a level of luxury I didn't know I needed. Tushy's lineup includes includes options for everyone like the aura which opens for you automatically when you walk into the room. Yes, please. And every model uses Fresh water, no harsh chemicals to clean you more thoroughly than toilet paper while cutting down on your usage by up to 80%. Think of all the money it'd save on toilet paper.
- [04:24]
George Hincapie
Here.
- [04:25]
Spencer Martin
It's hands free, hygienic and yes, kind of fun. Reclaim your comfort zone in the bathroom. For a limited time, our listeners get 10 off their first bidet order when they use code the move 10 at checkout. That's 10 off your first bidet order@hellotushy.com with promo code themove10 spelled out T H E M O V E and then the letter sorry and then the number 10 T H E M O V E 10@hellotushy.com for 10 off your first order, everybody. This episode is also brought to you by Peak Poor Teas. As a cyclist, I've learned the hard way. Energy, endurance and digestion can make or break a ride. When I'm training hard, I can start to feel really bloated after meals, sluggish mid ride and totally crash by the end. That's all changed when I started you using Peak Poor Teas. Their PO Te Bundle is a performance duo. Fermented green and black teas designed to reset your gut, boost your metabolism and deliver long lasting clean energy. Now I'm starting every big ride with the green po. It gives me calm, focused energy without the jitters or crashes I used to get from too much coffee. And after a ride, black PO is my recovery secret. It helps reduce bloating, supports digestion and even leaves me feeling light and ready to go again. Which is the most important thing about training. Doing it day after day, stacking those days together. That's what get you fast. Like these guys at the zero. What sets us apart. It's wild, harvested from 250 year old trees, toxin screened and made with cold extraction technology for maximum absorption. It dissolves instantly in hot or cold water. Perfect for cyclists on the go. Perfect for when you wake up. You want to throw some morning electrolytes in. You can do that. You don't need to heat up your tea. It's fantastic. Trust me, I never leave home without it. And for a limited time, you get 20% off for life. Plus a free starter kit which includes a rechargeable frother and a glass beaker. When you grab the poor bundle with our link peaklife.com the move and with peaks 90 day money back guarantee, you've got nothing to lose. Try it now@peak life.com themove and feel the difference on your next ride. All right, Johan, let's have you go first. What was your big takeaway from yesterday's Stage 15, and what do you think it means for the upcoming stages?
- [06:34]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, first of all, six stage wins for Little Trek.
- [06:38]
Spencer Martin
That's not bad.
- [06:39]
Johan Bruyneel
Amazing. Pretty amazing. And especially, you know, the day after they lost their GC guy, Julio Ciccone, due to the crash. What a way to. To come back of that team. And especially also Carlos Verona, only his second win in his pro career. One of the guys who always selflessly works for the team, for anybody who wants his support. And you could see clearly within the team how happy everybody was that Carlos won that stage. Very strong performance. You know, he was initially, he was not in the big break, then he came back with a little group of six riders and then took off far from the finish and won the battle against the guys behind him. So, yeah, it was super nice to see. And, you know, as often, you know, you see that little track, when things start to really go in there in their. In the way the team wants it to be, then the wins keep coming. Right. I think they were fully focused on Mats Petersen and on Chicone for gc, but they won two stages with two domestiques with Dan Hool and. And Carlos Verona. So. And then, yeah, what else? We could clearly see that Primos was having problems. We don't know exactly the reason. He did go down three times already in this Giro, so I've seen some.
- [08:04]
Spencer Martin
Is it more? More than three, though?
- [08:06]
Johan Bruyneel
No, three times three. That's.
- [08:08]
Spencer Martin
Including the time trial crash.
- [08:10]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [08:11]
Spencer Martin
Are there more we didn't see? Maybe at night?
- [08:14]
Johan Bruyneel
I think three times is a lot in. In two weeks, especially, you know, if you need to recover. And yesterday he was on. On a day that you could clearly see, he was pedaling squares. He was always out of position. You could see every time there was a slight acceleration, he. He went back a little bit, and finally when. When Bernal attacked and then Karapas attacked after that, he was found out and couldn't stay with the group of favorites. The only one, the only rider of all the GC riders that wasn't able to keep up. So that says a lot about the state he was in yesterday. Luckily, he had two teammates with him and, you know where he got dropped. I actually feared that he was going to lose a lot more time. Ultimately, he lost one and a half minutes. It's too much. And, you know, we'll see. We'll see tomorrow if Primos is at the start or not, but I think it's fair to say that he's out of contention now for doing this Giro after the time loss yesterday. What do you think, George?
- [09:19]
George Hincapie
Well, I mean, let's go back to, like you mentioned, Johan Carlos Verona. Second pro win, first ever Grand Tour stage win. He's been close before, I think. Second in the welter, third and one other Grand Tour. But what a great guy. I mean, this is one. This is a guy that anybody would want on their team. Super nice. I've chatted with him a bunch. He was going to come to the US a few years ago, had his family at the finish line. Like, it doesn't get better, any better than his victory yesterday. Solo 40k solo ride, family waiting for you at the finish line. Six stage win for the team. Just incredible to watch and super, super pumped for him. But yeah, lots of drama. I usually had the mechanical right at the bottom of the. What's the climb called? Motor. Not the. It's not the motor. So just imagine, for most people that happens like day is over. But he stayed super calm, rode within himself. Any ineos, goes to the front. A little bit of drama there. People asking, why are they doing this? That's racing. I mean, yeah, everybody's got to keep working.
- [10:24]
Johan Bruyneel
It was planned.
- [10:25]
George Hincapie
Yeah, yeah, it was planned. And they're not going to divert their plan because another member of another, different team has a mechanical. It's just, just. That doesn't work that way. Then fast forward a bit. Del Toro is up in the front with the best GC guys. UAE is behind chasing also. People questioning that tactic. But Johan, you said something in the pre, pre, pre show notes that I found very interesting. Wanted to repeat it to our listeners.
- [10:51]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, I mean, there's been. There's been a debate, you know, whether. Because Del Toro was following the attacks of Bernal and Carapas and he had his teammates, he had four teammates behind. And the team with Ayuso, who was having some kind of, I mean, problem or, you know, couldn't follow, and. And so UAE chased down Del Toro with Bernal and Carapas and a few others I think aren't there too. And I think, you know, especially because it was so far from the finish. I think it was the right thing to do because you could have Del Toro together with these guys. But it's still, you know, it's Bernal and Carapas, Grand Tour winners. You don't know what's going to happen in the last week. And at that point, the. The majority of riders of UAE was too big to give that up because not nothing was going to happen. But if, if, for example, if those four riders or five riders go away, then Del Toro is all by himself, and if something happens, he has nobody with him. So I think it was the right thing to do. It might, it may seem a bit, you know, controversial to, to chase down the guy in pink, but, and, and people say, yeah, you know, they're protecting. Are you? So I, I don't think that was the, that was the reason. It was basically to maintain the team together so far from the finish. So I, I, I, I agree with what they did.
- [12:13]
George Hincapie
I mean, so I, I agree with you, Johan. That definitely makes sense. But it could also be that perhaps they're not fully confident in Del Toro's third week, you know, power. After being such a young guy that has never been in this position, being in the pink jersey every day, having to do press conferences, getting back to the hotel later than everybody else, 21 years old. There's got to be some questions there as well. I would, I would guess probably, but.
- [12:40]
Johan Bruyneel
I, I, I would have confidence for after what I've seen until now. Yeah, I, I think, I think the guy is gonna stay on this level. He's so easy. I mean. Well, yeah, go ahead.
- [12:53]
Spencer Martin
Should I list. I realized I didn't list the GC just to provide people context for what we're talking about. Isaac Del Toro is leading the race, and then Simon is a big lead. Simon Yates, second, 120. Wanna use a third? 126. Richard Carap has fourth, 207. Derek G, fifth, 254. And then Igor Bernal. I'm skipping over some eager. Bernal's 8th, 338. Primus Ragoch, 10th, 353. I would say he's looked easy, Johan, but we haven't really raced in the mountains. We've had three kind of mountain days. And then Del Toro. It's not only that he's not had the pink jersey before, he's not even really raced high alpine stages before in his career, like, with over 4,000ft of vert. And that's pretty much all we have for the rest of this race.
- [13:34]
Johan Bruyneel
4,000 meters. Yeah.
- [13:35]
Spencer Martin
4,000Ft of. Yeah, that would be kind of surprising if he's not raised that.
- [13:40]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, I know, I know.
- [13:42]
Spencer Martin
But, you know, I mean, there's always.
- [13:43]
Johan Bruyneel
A first time, you know, when a young guy like that, he's discovering himself day by day. But he, he has shown that he has talent. And I go, I especially go off the, what I see the way he writes. He Is flying. He is always in the good position. He, you know, whenever there's a gap to be closed, he's on it, like, without even trying. I think this gu.
- [14:07]
Spencer Martin
We could see.
- [14:08]
Johan Bruyneel
We could. I mean, we could see the. The zero winner and that he keeps it through. Through the final week.
- [14:15]
George Hincapie
Johan, what about these little. Like, for instance, the other day? I don't know if it was yesterday or two days ago. Pretty hard bonus sprint when Del Toro's going full gas for it, and you saw Pimpson at the line. I mean, that's not a great look. What do you think about that?
- [14:28]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, we talked about it. We talked about it with Spencer in the other show. Yeah, I mean, I don't think it was more UAE was. Was leading it out. So they were making the tempo, and Del Toro passed his teammate. And then at the end, Ayushu came. It looked like to me like. Like he let Ayusho pass. It's clear that I used to. Listen, we've said this already. Are you. So in his mind, is the only leader of the team in this Giro. He came to this zero to win it, and he's still riding as if that is the case. And rightful mean he's in good shape. He had a great season so far. He was already third in the Vuelta a few years ago, so he's still a serious candidate to win this Giro. So. Yeah, I don't know what's going on between them. You know how the atmosphere is. Del Toro seems like a very nice guy, super relaxed, you know, he said, yeah, you know, I'll just take it as it comes. But let me tell you, deep down inside, he believed that he can win this Giro d'. Italia. He won't say it, and the team won't say it, so I think it's right. It's right, because it doesn't put any pressure on them. But I think UAE is in a great situation. They have two candidates, and for the moment, they have their chances intact. But are you sure? Needs to take time. I mean, it's a one, one and a half minute. He needs to get back to Del Toro, so.
- [15:54]
Spencer Martin
Well, did he look good? T on stage 15? I thought he looked like the worst rider outside of Primus. Rockledge, he was struggling a lot at the back.
- [16:02]
Johan Bruyneel
Are you so. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
- [16:07]
Spencer Martin
He was back at the team car. That hard start, and he's back at the team car. Like, what's going on?
- [16:11]
Johan Bruyneel
Today's a rest day. Yeah, I think I. I think I used to. Is okay. I would if If I would be a user, I would be worried. And they're not, they're not blind. They see in the peloton these little accelerations, you know, when something happens, you know exactly. You know, straight away, oh, this guy has a little bit more power than me. So I think. Are you so still a very serious candidate to do to win this zero, by the way?
- [16:42]
George Hincapie
Yeah. We have a crazy last week coming up, so, I mean, I don't know, I don't think I, I agree. Del Toro looks incredible. He's going after all these attacks like fingers in the nose. But I mean, Spencer's going to break down what we have coming up this week. You know, that's completely different ball game. And we've seen, we've seen catastrophic breakdowns by other riders, young riders, or even experienced riders. In that third week of the Giro, it really starts, the fatigue really starts building up in these riders. So I think still anything can happen.
- [17:16]
Spencer Martin
Like Johan, what if. Let's say I'm riding for you. I'm. I'm a star. I'm 21 year old superstar. I'm winning the Giro. George is on my team. He's super dedicated, strong, domestique. And it's stage 15 with a hard third week coming up. And I'm chasing down every move, personally. For riders that are three and four minutes back in the gc, what would you tell me as a director?
- [17:34]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, it's not. I mean, you have to. You're Chasing down is a big word. Spencer, you know, he's basically always in.
- [17:43]
Spencer Martin
Front, but he's snatched, closing that, it seems like.
- [17:46]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, but he's following the wheels, man. He's follow. I haven't seen him do. The biggest effort he has done in the last few days is when he got up from the crash and sprinted back to that first group. That's been his most violent effort. Other than that, you know, he was always well positioned, which is, you know, he's the only one who's always well positioned from all the, all the GC riders. I mean, you could maybe Simon Yates also, because he's silently there and he's, you know, he's, he's not been much in the picture, but he's in second for, for a reason. But, but I don't think, I mean, those bonus prints, obviously that's, those are accelerations that, that cost energy. But I mean, you know, today they have a rest day. He's young, he doesn't. Yeah.
- [18:37]
Spencer Martin
I mean, there's a few things he.
- [18:39]
Johan Bruyneel
Did that he probably shouldn't have done. Is it going to matter in the end? We don't know.
- [18:45]
Spencer Martin
I think it tends to matter, though. There's a reason GC contenders have teams and they aren't.
- [18:50]
George Hincapie
And I like. I like a guy like Simon Yates. I mean, he's on an experienced Grand Tour team, winning team. He's. He's been there in the third week of Grand Tours many times. He looks like he's just gotten stronger and stronger throughout this Euro. I'm only a minute and something change ahead of him. I'm a little bit nervous, that's for sure.
- [19:09]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, he's definitely. He's definitely growing in this Giro. Yeah, it's been a while. You know, it's been a long time since we've seen Simon Yates at the front in a. In a Grand Tour like this, but, you know, he's won the Tour of Spain. He was on his way to winning the Giro where when he did these. Yeah, crazy attacks. Unnecessary. And. Yeah, I mean, you know, if he's in second right now, definitely somebody that they have to take into account for the podium. And I agree.
- [19:45]
George Hincapie
He's got an ax to grind. Like, he lost that zero, probably because he did too much, but he was. He was dominating that zero. So I'm sure he's back in his mind, knowing, learning from the mistakes he made and playing a whole different ball game in this zero. And he's as in good of a position as you can be in leading coming into the last week of the Giro.
- [20:06]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, it's a long time ago. You know, it's a long time. If I'm not mistaken, Spencer, you. You can find it out quickly. But that 0, he lost and the Vuelta, he won. Wasn't that in the same year?
- [20:20]
Spencer Martin
It is.
- [20:20]
Johan Bruyneel
Good memory was 2019.
- [20:22]
Spencer Martin
Right.2018, because it was the year from. Came back at the Giro. And then he wins the VTA later in the year.
- [20:30]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, yeah. It's seven years ago.
- [20:34]
Spencer Martin
Notable how differently he's riding these two zeros. You know, he was del Toro in the Giro, and then now he's the Invisible man. I'm like, yeah, you forgot he was there. I would say a secret. Really good result, because I was thinking the same thing, Johan. I was like, simon Yates, can he really win this race? He always get dropped. He doesn't get dropped big time, but he leaks time when really good riders attack in the mountains. But fourth at the 2023 Tour, you don't really remember it because it was Pagacha or Vindigo Vinegard. But fourth at that tour is really good. That's almost. It sounds ridiculous. That's almost like winning another Grand Tour because. Oh, yeah, Adam Yates Vindegaard. So that's decent result. That shows he can climb consistently. Really good. I would be super worried about that.
- [21:19]
Johan Bruyneel
If I was uae.
- [21:21]
Spencer Martin
Do you think the stitches and I use his knee, is that going to play a part?
- [21:25]
Johan Bruyneel
Johan? Definitely not a good thing. You know, the body needs to heal. It doesn't heal in, you know, three, four days. You know that there's a little bit produces little inflammation. Who knows? I've heard, you know, that after the time trial, the stitches were open again. So I don't know if they had to put them back in or if they had to. I don't know what they did, but it's obviously bothering him. That's far from ideal.
- [21:54]
Spencer Martin
So let's take a quick. George, you want to say something really quick?
- [21:58]
George Hincapie
Yeah, I was gonna say any kind of. Any. Even a minor crash in a Grand Tour is definitely not ideal. But stitches in your knee is a big deal. And yes, he's a young rider, probably recovers a lot quicker than. Than most riders, but I would, I would guess it's. It's definitely taken a few percentage points away from his performance right now.
- [22:19]
Spencer Martin
So on that great topic, because we're going to talk about someone else who's having some hard problems with crashes and it adding up when we come back from this quick ad break, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Ketone iq. If you're like me and constantly on the go, training, traveling, podcasting, you know how hard it can be to stay sharp and energized without overloading on sugar caffeine. And that's why here at the Move, we've been reaching for Ketone IQ. Personally, I love the Ketone IQ Classic Shot. It's 10 grams of pure ketones, no sugar, no caffeine. Just clean, high performance fuel. I take one before a long recording session, early morning ride. And even while flying, it gives me a calm, focused energy without the crash. Just like my brain clicks on and not off later like it does with, with a caffeine and coffee. I've also noticed that the Giro, a lot of riders are taking a shot of a little tiny bottle after the stage. I believe that to be ketones because it is great for recovery. If you are a coffee person like myself, they have ketone IQ plus caffeine, which pairs 5 grams of ketones with 100 milligrams of caffeine from green tea. It gives you A quick boost up front and then keeps you in that steady groove for hours. I recommend Ketone IQ to anyone who's looking to optimize focus, endurance, or just stay locked in without relying on junk and stimulants. And if you're doing hard rides day after day, it appears that the pros are using it to recover. So it's gotta be good for you if they're doing it. There's no sugar, no artificial ingredients, just pure ketones in a convenient bottle. Save 30% off your subscription order. Now head to ketone.com themove to get yours right away. That's ketone.com themove everybody. This episode is also brought to you by Square, the all in one platform that helps you run your business smarter, not harder. Whether you're running a bike shop, a coff spot or a bar, Square gives you everything you need. A point of sale, payments, inventory, even customers tools. All in one place. One thing I love about Square, it just works. I've seen it firsthand in my favorite coffee shop in Boulder. It makes everything from checkout to customer service way smoother. No systems, no friction. Just fast, easy payments and more time to focus on what matters. It's fantastic. If we're a business owner like our friends at Mellow Johnny's, they're. They're probably using Square and it's great. If you're a customer, I'll literally go out of my way to go to bars and restaurants that have Square because it's so easy. Let me tap and go. Square lets me do that. Why am I doing math when I'm buying a beer carrying the one who remembers how to do that? Okay, just get, get with it. Get square. Let people tap and go. I cannot recommend it enough from both, both the customer and a business owner perspective. Square's flexibility is a game changer too. You can sell in person, online from a single location or 10. Set up a full online store in just a few clicks and be up and running in minutes. As someone who runs the WEDO online store, I cannot tell you how nice that sounds. Square keeps up so you don't have to slow down. Get everything you need to run and grow your business without any long term commitments. And why wait? Right now you can get up to 200 off square hardware at square dot com. Go/themove that square s q u a r e dot com go slash themove and run your business smarter with Square. Get started today. Again, that's square.comgo/themove. So George. Yeah, you were mentioning a Crash is a single crash is not good while crashing three times. And one of them on stage 14 right before hard stage 15 probably doesn't help. And that's Primus Roglich, who. I mean, what's funny is yesterday was one of the hardest stages of the race we've had so far. And it was one of the only stages where the top five didn't have a time change because they all finished on the same time behind at the time bonuses. Primos Roglic though, comes in 90 seconds down. He is now 353 down on Del Toro. Doesn't look good, I will say though, the Gird Italia known for big riders coming back. Like for example, let's go to 2020. Tao Gaganhart, 257 behind on going into the final rest day, 28 to 2018. Chris Froome 452 behind going into the final rest day. Vincenzo Nibali, he was 443 down after stage 16 in 2016. The reason I think you see this, it's less so with Gaganhart, because these big riders, they don't care about what fifth of the zero. And then the terrain gets harder so you like put them in a corner like a wounded animals in a corner and they have no choice but to like react in a major way. And that kind of sets up these comebacks. Having said that, I don't know if I see that happening with, with Primos. What do you guys think?
- [26:57]
George Hincapie
Yeah, I think we've seen it in the past with the Tour. I mean, when he's, he gets, he's. The more he crashes, the more it affects him. Every year he's a bit older. I don't see him coming back. But it is Primos Rogulic, you never know. But I feel like these, he, he. The time that he lost yesterday really indicates that those crashes are taking this toll. And I don't see him recovering on one rest day from that.
- [27:21]
Johan Bruyneel
No, I, I think the same, you know, I mean, before, before yesterday I didn't really realize how much damage the crashes had done. You know, I, I was still believing that he was biting his time and waiting for the last week. But yesterday he looked really bad. He looked pale. He looked, I mean, I don't know if he's sick or, or obviously Georgian. I mean, you know this better than anybody. If you crash three times, the recovery is not the same. You don't sleep the same. It. It catches up with you. Right? We could see he paid the price for that. So, yeah, I think I think I haven't seen enough from Primo Roglic in this giro to believe that he has another joker to play. You know, it's, he's been on the back foot a bit too much to, to, to really believe that he can, he can turn this around, in my opinion.
- [28:17]
George Hincapie
Yeah, I mean, think about that, just a sort of minor crash and then warming up for the time trial. I mean, that still hurts and you still put your body through that little bit of trauma and then go full gap. He did a great time trial, a decent time trial, but I think a day or two later then that actually really starts affecting him where he's just, yeah, it's a grand tour. I mean, you need every bit of your body's recovery you can get out of it. And crashing like that in a warm up for a time trial then going full gas is just a lot of those things are gonna, he's gonna pay dividends on that. We saw that yesterday by losing that time.
- [28:52]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, I, I, let's wait until tomorrow morning and see if first of all, if he takes the start, you know, I think they use the Red Bull, they use the rest day of today to really assess the situation. Let him rest and let him recover a little bit. And if there's already doubts if he's gonna take the start or not. I think, I think it doesn't look good for Primos. Not at all.
- [29:20]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Pains me to say it, I think it might be done. But right when we say that is when he's going to come back. So you never know. I mean, I will say I don't think it's going to happen. I, I was shocked going back and looking at Chris Froome and Nibali, like, I cannot believe those guys won those Euros. That's a, those are big deficits with just a few stages remaining. So I guess technically it's happened. I don't see it happening this time. Partly because we're art. Like, what, how would Primos come back? He would attack mid stage on a big climb. But we're already seeing that happening with, with Ineos and Egan Bernal. What do you guys make of this? Is it just because they need time? They're 338 down. Are they, is it like psychological terrorism now? UAE is worried about attacks coming from any point because when you look at these, like, let's say Bernal gets away yesterday, it's like, so he's 100k from the finish line. What's he gonna do with a full UAE team behind Him, I, I don't.
- [30:11]
Johan Bruyneel
Really understand those tactics either. He obviously, you know, he feels good. I think Bernal is trying to get confidence back in three week stage races. It's been a long time, you know, since the accident. It's been, he's been struggling. He, I read an interview. He said it's the first time that in a long Grand Tour that he doesn't have any back pain anymore. And obviously he feels great. He must feel great because every time there's an opportunity, he attacks. But yeah, there's been two or three of those attacks to question a bit, you know, the moment because it's far from the finish and especially with such a strong UAE team, there's not much they're gonna, they're gonna do, you know, the, the purpose could be okay, maybe they, I mean, they see Primos is not good. Maybe they see Ayusu has some trouble, try to eliminate those guys early on. That could be, you know, and then if he finds Karabas, for example, and then, and aren't Sman was there yesterday to help him, but Del Toro's over. Del Toro is going to be there, you know, so. Yeah. And also especially because the terrain of Bernal has to come. These are the, these are, this is the, the last week. That's his terrain now. So if he feels that good, I would have probably waited a little bit longer and just, you know, hide and, and just follow.
- [31:37]
George Hincapie
Yeah, like, like Johan said, he's, he's, he's close to his top level. He, he started losing some confidence. I, I went to his grandfundo in November and he's like, man, the numbers these guys are doing is just incomprehensible. But he stayed in Bogota a long time, trained at that high altitude. And we see it now. He's back to being confident, back to attacking, back to his team, having confidence in him and riding at the front for him. And we're getting, like Johan said, we're getting to his terrain, we're getting to the high altitude mountains, which is his backyard, so to speak. And I like, I like how good he's looking and I think we're gonna see a lot more aggression out of him in this finals week. As well as Carapots, also a really good high altitude rider. Already won a stage, an epic stage, rode away from the best guys in the world on that climb. So we're gonna see a lot, a lot more from those two, I believe.
- [32:28]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [32:30]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. On that note, actually, now that I'm thinking about it, you know, who tried to Snap respond to that. Instead of staying with her team, Isaac Del Toro probably actually gave Carapaz a little bit more of a gap. But on, on this third week we've been dancing around discussing just to give people context on this. So the hardest stages of this race, vertical meters wise, first is stage 19. Second is stage 16. Third is stage 20. Fourth is stage 15, which just happened yesterday. Fifth is stage 17. So four of the hardest. Four of the five hardest remaining stages we have not raced yet. So we really, it, it sounds ridiculous after the second rest day, but we really haven't raced a lot of the terrain that will decide this year. Natalia, if you're Bernal. Yeah, Johan, I'm the same. It's like maybe we just save that for the, the third week. And then the concerning thing is he's losing time. Like this is these are riders who gained and lost time in week two on Del Toro. So Del Toro zero, he's the baseline. Derek G, he took a minute and five. Simon aids took 2,22 seconds. 1A lost 13 seconds. Carap has lost 27 seconds. Eagan Renault lost a minute 41 seconds on Del Toro in the second week. So it's like, well, and maybe instead of putting resources into these big attacks, we just focus on like holding serve until we get to the third week. But they're trying something. It's, I mean, it's kind of interesting to watch and maybe it's setting something up later in the race. Like people will think that it's a silly move and they won't chase. I don't know. I don't know. Even as I say that, it doesn't sound so plausible.
- [34:01]
George Hincapie
No, I like it. I mean, mean, you know, seeing a team at the front all day long controlling the pace sometimes gets a little boring. So I don't mind seeing other big teams mixing it up and trying to be aggressive and trying to get some time where most people may not think it's a great idea. But I think, yeah, like we said, Bernal is getting more and more confident and I think we're going to see more and more of that.
- [34:23]
Spencer Martin
Did you guys notice this, just how hard the stages have been? So like stage 15, I believe it was like one of the fastest stages, stages like of all time. Over 180 kilometers or something. And it was a mountain stage. But Antonio Tiberi, he's sitting seventh overall, dropped at the beginning of the stage. It was that hard, that.
- [34:43]
Johan Bruyneel
And also he went down pretty hard. He was, he was, I think he was one of the first guys who went down the day before. Yeah.
- [34:49]
Spencer Martin
Last to get up too, so.
- [34:51]
Johan Bruyneel
Didn't have a great day yesterday. Actually. Caruso looks better than Tiberi at this very moment. But. But yeah, I mean, listen, there's 24, 000 vertical meters left. That's close to half of the whole Grand Tour. What Was it total of 56, 000 or something?
- [35:10]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, 56. So. So, yeah, like.
- [35:15]
Johan Bruyneel
It'S. That's massive.
- [35:17]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. Yeah. Like that's half of a hard Grand Tour. Would have 50, 000 meters of climbing and so that's half remaining, which is pretty daunting. Do you guys have anything else to say on yesterday before we move on to tomorrow's stage? Hopefully predict it a little bit better than we did last time.
- [35:32]
George Hincapie
I don't have anything to say about yesterday's stage, but we do need to shout out Casper as green former Tour Flyers winner.
- [35:38]
Spencer Martin
Yes.
- [35:39]
George Hincapie
I mean, had a couple quiet years. Is a. Is a. As an occasional listener of our show and actually promised that he would come on our show at some point. So I was personally very happy to see him win. An epically hard stage. Very tactical breakaway. They kept control of their speed the whole time and he was able to pull off an incredible stage victory. And arguably Casper is back to his top level. I was really happy to see that.
- [36:02]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, we did. We did compliment him in our. In our show.
- [36:05]
Spencer Martin
George.
- [36:06]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, that was an amazing performance. You know, one of those stages that when Oscar is, you know, in the mood and has the legs, there's not many people who can pull it off in that way. And he did it. So, yeah, was. That was a great win. That was a great win for him.
- [36:24]
Spencer Martin
Another crazy stage. By the way. Average speed was about 29 miles an hour. 29. Almost 30. So that's like almost 50k an hour or that's a little.
- [36:32]
George Hincapie
They never got much time right from the breakaway.
- [36:34]
Spencer Martin
Minute and a half was the max.
- [36:36]
George Hincapie
I believe, which is crazy. Yeah. I mean they were right there the whole time.
- [36:41]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [36:41]
Spencer Martin
And I mean really, it just like clever move. I was saying after that stage, George's last three World Tour wins are that stage a stage of the Tour de France and the Tour of Flanders. So yeah, the quantity is not high, but the quality is. Is pretty impressive.
- [36:56]
George Hincapie
It's as good as it gets.
- [36:57]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. So let's take a quick break and then we will predict stage 16 and talk about who we think is going to win this overall. Everybody. This episode is brought to you by Saily. When I'm traveling Abroad for bike races, like when I was at the Tour de France last year. It can be really difficult to watch because you need to watch on your phone, because when you're, when you're at the race, you don't see a lot of it. And what do you need to watch on your phone? You need data. How do you have? Well, you can use roaming with your plan in the us, but that can get really expensive really fast. And that's why I've started using Saily. And it's a game changer because it is a mobile esim app that lets you grab a local data plan in over 150 countries right from your phone. No swapping SIM cards, no more hunting down phone stores in France trying to speak French when you're jet lagged and you don't really understand the phone system there. This lets you just immediately, like that, have a local number and be operating from the country as though you have a plan there. You land in a new country, open the app and boom, you're connected. When you're on the move as much as I am, especially covering races where you need a ton of data to stream, upload and stay in touch with your team, you cannot afford to lose connection. And with Saily, I have not. It's fast, affordable, reliable and built by the same people behind NORDVPN heroes of this show. So you know it's secure. Whether you're following a grand tour or off on your own adventure. Ditch the roaming drama and check out Saily. It's simple, it works and makes travel way smoother. I cannot recommend it enough. It's way better than using your roaming data. Download the Saily app or head to sailly.com themove that's Saly S A I L-Y.com themove and use code themove at checkout to save 15 off your data plan. All right, back to the show. So stage 16, tomorrow's stage, it's. We're still like floating around the Veneto. We cannot leave. We feel like we've all moved to the Veneto. We cannot get out of this place. We, we are back there. For the start of tomorrow's stage, we go into the mountains above Lake Garda, which are steep and long. But we're still not in the high altitude alpine climbs. We have 1, 2, 3, 4 categorized climbs. Here's the catch though. They're all over 10k long and the last second to last climb averages 8.3% for 12.6 kilometers. And then the last climb, it looks Almost deceptively easy because it's 18 kilometers long at six and a half percent average. But the last half of it is about. Every time it's going uphill, it's about 9% average for the last half. There's a small descent in there with actually, which actually couldn't make the race harder because it's just going to disrupt rhythm and like if you're struggling and there's a descent and slight flat, you might actually lose more time. But I'll list off the favorites from Unibet for the the stage and then we'll predict the stage and then we'll also predict who we think is going to win the overall. I tend to think it's probably going to be the same rider who wins tomorrow who wins the overall. But Isaac Del Toro is the heavy, heavy favorite at +250. I thought this was overall odds. That's how heavy of a favorite he is. Richard Carapaz. Plus 450. Juana, you so. Plus 500. Julio Pelizari. Plus 1400. That's an interesting one. Egan Bernal. Plus 2000. Primus Raglich. Plus 2200. Simon Yates. Plus 2500. Wow. Poles plus 2500. J Vine. Plus 3300.
- [40:06]
Johan Bruyneel
I'm.
- [40:06]
Spencer Martin
I'm skipping some or Michael Storr. Plus 3300. Naira Cantata. Plus 3300. Derek G. Plus 4000. Danny Martinez. Plus 5000. Johan, you go first. Who do you think is going to win the stage?
- [40:17]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, I think it's going to be GC day tomorrow. Stage is too hard. You know, 4700 meters of climbing. The last climb is very hard. The others are not easy either. I'm going to predict Isaac Del Toro. I think tomorrow he's gonna make a statement and say, hey, I'm the pink jersey, I'm the leader and I'm winning. This thing is AGD El Toro. Even at plus 250, I'm gonna pick him to win the stage.
- [40:45]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, it's a good, it's a good pick. I mean, it's such a weird situation because just bait. If you just watched the stages and you had no information about who these people were or their history or the coming stage, you'd say, well, obviously, yeah, because he's the strongest guy in the race. It's just such a different stage than we've raced. I, I will say. And this, this further bolsters your point. I went back and I watched the 2019 Volta Espana with a 20 year old rider storming through that Third week. So it's not like, by the way, so it's not like automatic that these young guys get worse in the third week. Like, Pagatra was probably the strongest rider in that third week at the Vuelta. So it is. Was positive, obviously, in the. In the next year at the Tour. He was very good in that third week and won the Tour. But it's not a guarantee that they get worse. I would say I would be surprised. I wouldn't be shocked. I'd be surprised if he won, because that I think he would probably. He could pencil him in for the overall if he won tomorrow.
- [41:42]
George Hincapie
Yeah, for sure.
- [41:43]
Spencer Martin
George, who's your pick?
- [41:45]
George Hincapie
I'm gonna go with Carapace. I think the tax he's made, the win he had, he's. He's clearly full of confidence and full of power when it gets to the climbs. And I. I think arguably last week climbs suit him even better. And the team is on a roll. I mean, they got the stage with. With Casper, so for me, I'm going to go with carts tomorrow.
- [42:07]
Spencer Martin
It's a good pick. It's. Yeah, it's kind of interesting, and it does feel like any of these guys could win. I'm going to go a little f. Further down. Simon Yates plus 2500. Like, I'm actually surprised he's not more highly ranked here on this because he's a very good climber. We're getting into his terrain, and I do think probably whoever wins tomorrow wins the overall because this is a hard stage. You can't hide on these climbs. There's no nuance, there's no texture on them. It's just, can you go really hard for a long time uphill, and if you can't, you'll win, and you'll probably win the overall, But I'm going to pick Simon Yates to win that.
- [42:44]
Johan Bruyneel
Okay.
- [42:45]
Spencer Martin
Who do you guys think will win the overall?
- [42:50]
Johan Bruyneel
You can go first, George.
- [42:51]
George Hincapie
I'm gonna go with Simon Yates. You know, he's got an axe to grind with the Giro. He was very close a few years ago. I think maybe perhaps road way too aggressively, showed his cards a bit too much. And we haven't even really seen him except him climbing up the. The standings this whole last two weeks. And a guy like that's got the experience, got the legs to climb with the best, and got the. The legs to beat them in sprints many times as well. So I'm gonna go with Simon Yates, and he's got an experienced Grand Tour team winning team behind him.
- [43:26]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, okay. Yeah, I Mean, I like, I like the fact that we haven't seen him and he's in second position. That's. That's really good, you know? Yeah. Yeah. Spencer, you gonna go next?
- [43:37]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, I gotta. I got a real kooky one, I will admit, just to say up top. I think people are probably overlooking one at you. So he's in third and we're acting like the guy's like, been limping through this race. Terrible. And he really has lost time to his teammate. He's outperformed his teammate who's leading the race in time trials and climbs and only lost time with. With crashes but. And time bonuses. I'm gonna go Derek G. To win the overall. I admittedly a bit of a kooky pick plus 3,300, but a couple data points here. He's lost to Isaac Del Toro. He's lost 3 minutes, 22 seconds on flat stages and he only trails him by 254. So he's actually gained time outside of those stages. We have none of those flat stages remaining or as flat stages. Well, difference will be made, most likely. So. And I do think it's a little like, less romantic. But I think modern cycling too is just about can you get a real big guy to put out real big watts for a real long time and they'll do well on these hard climbs. It's. I mean, Pagachar is not big, Vinegar's not big. But those guys put out massive, massive watts for a long time. But I think in the absence of them, if, if G, who looks fit, can just be turning over. So, like, just so much power, it could be hard for some of these, like, more climbers to keep up with him.
- [44:56]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah, well, I don't see him winning. He'll, he'll, he'll be, he'll be good. I mean, one thing, I, I mean, I'm sure you saw it yesterday. Spencer, he's very, very easy. I mean, he's riding very comfortably. You saw that image with the guy with the fox and he is touching the fox.
- [45:13]
Spencer Martin
Yeah, that was when Elios was attacking, by the way.
- [45:15]
Johan Bruyneel
That was. And it was, it was going very fast. Yeah, yeah. I'm, I'm gonna predict the podium. 1, 2 and 3. So I think Del Toro keeps pink. He's winning the Giro. Karapa second. That's my podium. I, I think there's nobody stronger than El Toro right now. You know, we have to see the last week, but I think he can do it.
- [45:48]
Spencer Martin
Let's say that happens. Johan, what's the path forward for uae. I mean I also can't stay. Right. Because now I mean.
- [45:56]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. I mean because he has a huge contract. Long term contract. The big buyout clause.
- [46:04]
Spencer Martin
Leader Grand Tour at some point. Right.
- [46:06]
Johan Bruyneel
Well not every, not every year is the same. I mean Del Toro was obviously not in the plans but here we go, here we are.
- [46:12]
Spencer Martin
You know Del Toro wins this for race. I mean it's so rare for a 21 year old to win a Grand Tour. We're talking all time greats. I mean that's, that's a bit of a crowded team. Do you think they all three can stay plus Almeida Pagacha Del Toro ao Joao Almeida. This is like four of the best problems to have in the sport.
- [46:31]
Johan Bruyneel
It's a nice problem to have as a team. As a team.
- [46:34]
George Hincapie
And don't forget about Adam. Adam Yates, he's also there.
- [46:38]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [46:39]
Spencer Martin
Who's probably going to be on teammate duty in this third week.
- [46:41]
George Hincapie
Which is yeah.
- [46:42]
Spencer Martin
Nice. Nice thing to have for sure.
- [46:44]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [46:46]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. I mean what would be hilarious if Simon Yates wins this visma wins a Grand Tour and a Grand Tour none of us expected beats this all star team from UAE that I'm kind of secretly pulling for that just because I think it would be interesting.
- [47:01]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah. I think Simon Yates is riding a smart race but you know he's, he has shown weaknesses at several, several times. Anyway the last week is completely, completely different but he's lost a little bit of time here and there.
- [47:19]
Spencer Martin
Yeah. You don't have to dig too deep in the tapes to find Simon he's weaknesses. That sounds rude but, but he has been so I mean I actually was surprised how rock solid he's been and like kind of how invisible he's been. That's, that is who tends to win these backloaded races.
- [47:35]
Johan Bruyneel
One of, one of the, one of the really and big statements he made is that mean it, it was difficult to see because the weather changed in the time but he did a really good time trial.
- [47:45]
Spencer Martin
Really good.
- [47:46]
Johan Bruyneel
Compared to all the other GC guys. I think it was only Roglic who did better than him in the time trial.
- [47:52]
Spencer Martin
Well, Derek G. Yeah, he did better than him.
- [47:57]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [47:57]
Spencer Martin
I, I. Johan's on an anti Derek G camp. I don't know what Derek G did to you, but nothing.
- [48:04]
Johan Bruyneel
Nothing. I mean I actually, no, I, I actually the guy but he hasn't you know he was.
- [48:10]
Spencer Martin
And he was top.
- [48:11]
Johan Bruyneel
10 in the tour. You know we haven't seen anything else at that at this level. Right.
- [48:15]
Spencer Martin
I'm extrapolating a lot to get him to winning this. We're skipping a lot of steps if he wins this race.
- [48:22]
Johan Bruyneel
Yeah.
- [48:24]
Spencer Martin
All right, well, anything else, guys, before we take off?
- [48:27]
Johan Bruyneel
That's it.
- [48:29]
Spencer Martin
All right, well, have a great day, and I'm. I'm excited for this third week. If you're. If you haven't watched the race yet, it's on Max in the US So find it there. Buckle in. This is. It's good. Should be a great few stages of racing.
- [48:42]
Johan Bruyneel
Okay, thanks, guys.
- [48:43]
George Hincapie
All right, guys. Thank you. Bye, guys.