THEMOVE Podcast Summary

Episode: Is Jonas Vingegaard Targeting the Giro/Tour Double a Mistake? | THEMOVE+

Host: Spencer Martin
Guest: Johan Bruyneel
Air Date: January 16, 2026

EPISODE OVERVIEW

This episode focuses on Jonas Vingegaard’s ambitious aim to race both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in 2026, with hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Bruyneel breaking down the logic and potential risks behind the decision. They cover big headlines from Visma–Lease a Bike’s media day—including Matteo Jorgenson’s revised calendar, Wout van Aert’s fast recovery from injury, and how the team's support philosophy may shift. The crew also discusses peculiar tactics at the Australian National Championships, the evolving economics of pro cycling, and their personal mileage challenge. Throughout, they combine inside perspective, tactical analysis, and humor for a comprehensive look at the state of elite cycling.

KEY DISCUSSION POINTS

1. Jonas Vingegaard’s Giro/Tour Double Ambition

Announcement and Rationale

• Vingegaard confirmed at Visma–Lease a Bike’s Costa Blanca training camp that he intends to tackle both the Giro d’Italia and the Tour de France in 2026.
• Johan Bruyneel (04:44):

  "He is the second best stage racer in the world. There's no doubt about that. Today is going full gas for the Tour... If you have the opportunity to win all three Grand Tours and you can finish your career saying, hey, I'm one of the very few who have won all three Grand Tours... that's pretty big."

• The move is seen as a way for Vingegaard to diversify his Grand Tour wins and potentially cement his legacy among the few riders who've won all three.

Risks and Tactics

• The physical and psychological challenge of targeting two consecutive Grand Tours has traditionally been considered risky.
• Bruyneel (10:48):

  "...Back in the days... if they do the Giro, they're not going to be 100% at the Tour. That's gone. That doesn't exist anymore... If Jonas goes to the Giro and wins it, he starts the Tour with almost no pressure."

• The current era’s scientific training and depth of support staff mean the double is less daunting than in previous generations.

The Pogacar Factor

• Both hosts agree Tadej Pogacar is currently the Tour de France favorite.
• Martin (10:23):

  "Jonas is so much better than everybody else that's not Pogacar that he can do the Giro, win the Giro and still be in position to be best of the rest..."

• The implication is that, barring crashes or surprises, Vingegaard is unlikely to beat Pogacar, but puts himself in the best possible position if opportunity arises.

Team Tactics

• There's significant discussion about how to manage the support team for both races, with the realization that some riders, like Sepp Kuss and Jan Tratnik, want to attempt both as well.
• Bruyneel (12:29):

  "These are big engines, but the support team around them... you have to change them, mix them up... they do have a pretty deep team."

2. Visma–Lease a Bike's 2026 Race Programs

Matteo Jorgenson’s Reshuffled Calendar

• Jorgenson to focus on the Ardennes classics, forgo cobbled races, and enjoy a leadership role in the Tour de France, especially with Simon Yates out.
• Martin (15:11):

  "I like it. I mean, Paris-Nice, he's won twice in a row... but does that accomplish his goals as a rider? ...I think it's important [he targets the Tour]."

• Strategically, Jorgenson’s flexibility gives the team options and increases tactical pressure on rivals.

Cobbled Classics & Young Talent

• Matthew Brennan to take on a major role in the northern classics alongside van Aert, signaling the team’s transition to developing new classics leaders.
• Bruyneel (19:31):

  "Brennan is ready to step up, after the amazing season he had in 2025... now I think he's ready to have responsibility in the team and to have a protected role."

3. Wout van Aert’s Fast Recovery

Injury and Outlook

• Van Aert sustained a serious ankle fracture at the season’s start, yet returned to road cycling far sooner than expected.
• Bruyneel (23:35):

  "It's a very clean break and a clean surgery also. It's broken, yes, but it's together... he started riding again so quickly... at the media day, he was walking without crutches."

• By Day 11 post-surgery:
  • 144 km ride with 2,800m climbing
  • Broken personal Strava records
  • Next day: 184 km, 3,300m elevation gain

Van Aert’s Mindset

• Bruyneel (24:31):

  "He sounds extremely confident. There's no doubt in his mind that he's going to be full ready for the classics."

Broader Trend

• Discussion opens up on top stars (e.g., Mathieu van der Poel) reducing cross-discipline racing to maximize road performance.

4. Tactical Breakdown: Australian National Championships

• A controversial finish saw Luke Plapp (Jayco–AlUla) chase down teammate Luke Durbridge, only to be outsprinted by Patrick Eddy, a lesser-known rider from a continental team.
• Bruyneel (37:11):

  "One of the most stupid tactics you can think of... you have a teammate in front, even if Durbridge was dying, you are not the one to instigate that chase unless you are absolutely sure you're gonna blow everybody off your wheel."

• The episode connects Plapp’s miscue to a classic 1982 World Championships team error, highlighting how lack of radio communication and poor racecraft can cost big results.
• Spencer and Johan discuss the psychological barriers some riders face when transitioning from domestic dominance to racing in Europe, particularly around positioning and awareness.

5. Pro Cycling's Economic Shifts & Media Rights

Richard Plugge’s Comments

• Visma–Lease a Bike’s manager publicly urged the UCI to regulate team budgets, hinting that reforms from the teams themselves (e.g., the "One Cycling" project) are stalling.
• Bruyneel (49:49):

  "Richard Plugge requests the UCI to take initiative and make moves to change the business model of cycling. I can guarantee you that's not going to happen. That is never going to happen."

• The hosts suggest these interviews are strategic PR as top teams try to nudge reforms (or at least protect themselves) amid a ballooning arms race for talent.

US TV Rights

• The Giro d’Italia still lacks a US broadcasting deal weeks before the race—a symptom of the sport’s slow-moving commercial structure.

6. THEMOVE Mileage Challenge

• Spencer and Johan compare their 2025 Strava totals:
  • Spencer: 12,501 km
  • Johan: 12,804 km (real total, including private rides)
• Wout van Aert also joining in, showing discipline and camaraderie among cycling insiders.

7. Grand Tour Statistics: How Rare Are Stage Wins?

• 61 Grand Tour stages in 2025 (with 2 cancelled in the Vuelta).
• Only 40 unique winners; just 12 riders won multiple stages.
• Bruyneel (56:17):

  "Winning a stage in a Grand Tour is and has always been extremely difficult... I had the feeling that was like, it could not get any better than this. I had attained the maximum."

• Mads Pedersen won the most as a percentage of available stages (8.2%), ahead of Tadej Pogacar (6.6%), illustrating the rarity and value of success.

MEMORABLE QUOTES & SEGMENTS

• On Taking Risks in Team Leadership:

  "You have to be there and just try. And then, hey, there's always circumstances...if the big favorite crashes, somebody's gonna win. So it might as well be [you]." — Bruyneel (09:47)

• On Next-Gen Training vs. Past Eras:

  "It's completely changed... Back in the days... they do the Giro, they're not going to be 100% at the Tour. That's gone. That doesn't exist anymore." — Bruyneel (10:48)

• On the Realities of Winning in Cycling:

  "Try to win one first!" — Bruyneel, on teams claiming they're "targeting stages" at Grand Tours (56:08)

TIMESTAMPS FOR IMPORTANT SEGMENTS

• 00:51 – The reality of "waiting for the favorite to falter" in modern cycling
• 04:44 – Vingegaard’s decision to target the Giro-Tour double analyzed
• 10:23 – Evaluating the depth of both fields & Vingegaard's place within them
• 12:29 – How teams can support a double Grand Tour attempt
• 17:22 – Jorgenson’s shift to Ardennes and the potential tactical advantage
• 23:35 – Wout van Aert’s fast return from ankle surgery
• 37:11 – Tactical critique of the Australian National Championships finish
• 49:49 – Why structural reform in cycling (from UCI) may never happen
• 56:08 – Grand Tour win statistics: just how rare are stage victories?

TONE & STYLE

Friendly, lightly irreverent analysis blending insider knowledge with skeptical humor. Both hosts freely offer strong opinions but maintain respect for current riders’ ambitions and achievements.

LISTENERS' TAKEAWAYS

• Vingegaard’s double is ambitious but timely given his rivals and team support.
• Team structure and psychological resilience often matter as much as raw talent.
• Winning even a single Grand Tour stage is extraordinarily rare and career-defining.
• Cycling’s commercial future remains uncertain, with top team managers voicing the need for economic changes even as progress stalls.
• The cycling landscape for 2026 is shifting, with both established and new names poised for key roles in classics and stage races.

For cycling fans, this episode encapsulates the complexity, calculated risk, and evolving tactics at the highest level of the sport, presented with the wit and perspective only insiders can deliver.