THEMOVE+: "Pogačar Not Done Yet! - Predicting 2026’s Biggest Races"
Date: December 29, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong (A), with Spencer Martin (A) and Johan Bruyneel (B)
Theme: Deep-dive predictions for the 2026 cycling season—across Monuments, Grand Tours, World Championships, and the evolving pro-cycling scene. Plus: behind-the-scenes insights into cyclocross, athlete progression, multi-million euro transfer fees, and the hosts’ annual Strava mileage rivalry.
Episode Overview
This season-wrap episode puts the future of pro cycling under the microscope. With the weekly race calendar on pause, Spencer and Johan engage in wide-ranging conversations and spirited predictions for 2026’s top races. They analyze the dominance of Tadej Pogačar, Mathieu van der Poel, and Remco Evenepoel; debate record-approaching feats; unpack mega-transfer fees; and explore the nature of talent and progression in the current era. Warm banter and sharp analysis deliver a must-listen for cycling aficionados.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Cyclocross: Van der Poel’s Untouchable Run
- Van der Poel is “miles ahead” of Wout van Aert and the rest. Jaw-dropping skills and power have rendered cyclocross outcomes predictable unless illness or accident intervene.
- Memorable Moment [08:41]:
Johan: “It would take an accident or an illness for him to not become for the eighth time world champion, which is unbelievable.”
- Memorable Moment [08:41]:
- Speculation that Van der Poel may retire from CX after potentially clinching his eighth world title:
- Johan [09:39]: “If he wins the worlds, that’s it for cyclocross for him… there’s nothing else to win.”
- Van der Poel’s tech flex: racing in aero overshoes at Havre, signaling confidence he wouldn’t need to run.
- Johan [12:08]: “I think that’s the first man in cyclocross with aero overshoes.”
2. Efforts and Preparation: Cyclocross vs. Road Fitness
- Discussion on whether heavy winter CX racing aids or hinders spring classics success. Van der Poel, all-in, and Van Aert, perhaps less hungry, are prime examples; riders like Mads Pedersen prep exclusively for the road.
- Johan [13:11]: “Van der Poel remained the big specialist and Wout, by doing it less and less, is technically losing a bit of his skills.”
3. 2026 Monuments Predictions
- Both believe the Monuments are increasingly a two-man show: Van der Poel and Pogačar.
- Johan [22:28]: “There’s two riders who will win all five monuments... For me, it’s Mathieu van der Poel and Pogačar.”
- Spencer [23:49]: “It is exactly the same as 2025. Van der Poel—San Remo, Pogačar—Flanders, Van der Poel—Roubaix, Pogačar double—Liège, Lombardia.”
- Spencer predicts a once-unthinkable possibility:
- Spencer [24:18]: “I think he’s going to sweep the monuments. I think we’re going to see something—It’s not impossible, though, which is wild.”
- Historical note: Only three riders have ever won all five Monuments in their careers (Merckx, De Vlaeminck, Van Looy); sweeping a single season remains the stuff of legend.
4. Grand Tour Predictions (Giro, Tour, Vuelta)
- Giro: If Jonas Vingegaard starts, unanimous lock for victory.
- Johan [34:40]: “If he’s at the start, he wins the Giro d’Italia.”
- Tour: Both agree—Pogačar remains the favorite unless injury or bad luck intervene.
- Vuelta: Toss-up, but Primos Roglič gets Johan’s nod (in absence of Jonas/Pogačar), while Spencer believes Pogačar wins if he starts.
- Discussion of Roglič’s longevity; question if he’s crossed the Grand Tour winner’s “point of no return.”
- Spencer [38:30]: “I’m a little worried he’s done winning Grand Tours… these Grand Tour winners, they turn a corner and then they can’t win anymore.”
5. Tour de France Green Jersey
- Johan: Jasper Philipsen’s route repeat.
- Spencer: Gamble on Mads Pedersen, citing his versatility and fighting spirit.
6. World Championships (Montreal 2026)
- Both pick Remco Evenepoel to dominate the time trial—perhaps the best ever.
- Johan [44:30]: “For the World Championships TT, Remco. At the moment, I don’t think anybody can beat him.”
- Road race likely for Pogačar if he targets it; course may encourage an open contest.
7. Mega Transfer Fees & Industry Trends
- Skyrocketing buyouts: Oscar Onley’s €6M move to INEOS, Ayuso’s €10M to Lidl-Trek, Remco’s €7M to Red Bull, Derek Gee’s big coming payday.
- Debate: Is it sustainable or remotely rational? Oscar Onley’s price vs. Remco: “How is Oscar Onley €6M and Remco only €7M?”
- Johan [52:08]: “I would have thought for Oscar Onley… two and a half, three [million] maximum as a transfer. But six million plus…”
- What’s the actual return-on-investment calculus? For Ayuso/Lidl: “He needs to win a Grand Tour… maybe multiple.”
- Johan [54:32]: “He needs to win a Grand Tour. Maybe multiple.”
8. Rider Development & Potential vs. Production
- The cycling world’s obsession with “potential” is dissected. Are teams (and fans) overrating youth and underrating currently productive riders?
- Spencer [61:17]: “Pro cycling at the moment… overvalues potential and undervalues current production.”
- Paul Seixas vs. Isaac Del Toro: Which is preferable—the U23 prospect, or a young but proven race-winner? Both hosts side with the latter:
- Johan [59:08]: “I’m taking Del Toro over Paul Seixas all the time.”
- Discussion of how “prospect obsession” shapes expectations, often unrealistically.
9. Alternative Talent Sources
- Spencer ponders: Why aren’t more gravel/ultra-endurance stars (e.g., Cam Jones of New Zealand) being snapped up by pro teams, especially with colossal wattage and performances that could prove value at a bargain price?
- Johan [65:38]: “You have to be skilled, man. And whether you’re a mountain biker or a gravel racer… it’s completely irrelevant once you’re in a big bunch in the top races.”
10. Hosts’ Strava Mileage Challenge
- Year-end numbers: Both within a few dozen kilometers past 12,000 km, but Johan’s (slightly disputed) total has him on top.
- Spencer [67:25]: “This might have to go to CAS … I don’t think I can outride you by 66 kilometers for the next three days, if you’re also riding 100k a day.”
- Friendly rivalry underlines the importance of routine and getting out on the bike, regardless of professional status.
- Johan [68:39]: “Independently, Spencer, I think we’ve both done well… and have had fun on the bike.”
Notable Quotes & Moments
On Van der Poel's Cyclocross Dominance
- Johan [08:41]: “It would take an accident or an illness for him to not become for the eighth time World Champion, which is unbelievable…”
Predicting a Pog Monster Year
- Spencer [24:18]: “I think he’s going to sweep the monuments. I think we’re going to see something. It’s not impossible, though, which is wild.”
Transfer Market Reality Check
- Johan [52:08]: “For Oscar Onley, he’s a great rider…but six million plus? I don’t know.”
On Cycling’s Prospect Obsession
- Spencer [61:17]: “It’s almost a disease of the mind…we just assume everyone’s going to be the next Pogačar, when that’s actually very unlikely.”
Timestamps to Key Segments
- [00:00–07:00] – UAE camp impressions; off-season riding in Costa Blanca & Maui
- [07:21–20:30] – Cyclocross deep-dive; Van der Poel’s dominance; young talents; technical discussion on position and running in CX
- [22:11–32:00] – 2026 Monuments predictions, rarity of monument sweeps, historical context
- [34:40–41:30] – Grand Tour winners for 2026; stress of media scrutiny on stars
- [41:41–45:00] – Tour de France Green Jersey and World TT/road picks
- [46:25–53:36] – Transfer market, Oscar Onley & big-money moves dissected
- [59:08–62:12] – Young talent vs. current production; comparison of top neo-pros
- [62:44–66:51] – Alternative backgrounds: why not more gravel/mountain bike phenoms in the WT peloton?
- [67:25–70:13] – Strava mileage, training culture, and year-end camaraderie
Final Tone and Takeaway
Lively, self-deprecating, but keen-eyed, this conversation-turned-prediction-bonanza lays out the likely shape of cycling's 2026 elite season. As always, Armstrong's circle bring a blend of blunt realism, affectionate ribbing ("I already told [Lance] his saddle was too high—when he was a pro he listened, now he doesn’t"), and reverence for the magic moments the sport consistently offers.
Whether you’re plotting fantasy cycling teams or just savoring pro bike racing’s rich, unpredictable landscape, this THEMOVE+ episode gets you ready to witness history—whatever shape it takes.