THEMOVE: Protests Overshadow a Massive Comeback Win | Vuelta a España Stage 16 Analysis & Stage 17 Preview

Host: Lance Armstrong (absent), Spencer Martin & Johan Bruyneel
Date: September 9, 2025
Theme: An in-depth breakdown of the controversy-filled Stage 16 at the Vuelta a España—dominated by climate protests, an abridged finish, and Egan Bernal’s remarkable comeback victory. Includes tactical post-mortem, the wider impact of protest actions on the race, and a detailed look ahead to Stage 17.

Episode Overview

This episode dives into the chaos that overshadowed Stage 16, where well-organized protests forced the finish line to be moved mid-stage, scrambling both race outcomes and GC strategies. Spencer and Johan discuss Egan Bernal’s emotional win in the context of his recent challenges, analyze team and rider decisions under disrupted conditions, and ponder the future of the race as protests threaten its completion. A rigorous preview of Stage 17 closes the conversation, complete with betting odds and predictions.

Key Discussion Points

1. Stage 16 Recap: The Race That Wasn’t

• Breakaway Dynamics & Unseen Drama ([01:30], [04:23])
  • Early breakaway included Egan Bernal, Mikel Landa, and UAE’s Marc Soler.
  • Spencer: “I’ve ceased to be amazed and confused by [UAE’s tactics]. I’m just going with it.” ([01:30])
  • Nico Denz, as the heaviest and fastest rider, was well-positioned if the finish had stayed at the bottom.
• Protest Disruption & Route Change
  • A mass of protesters on the penultimate climb forced race organizers to stop the race and move the finish ~3 km early.
  • Johan: “There was a lot, a lot, a lot [of protesters]...It was basically impossible for the organization and even the extra police to keep it under control.” ([05:07])
• Unusual Victory: Bernal’s Win Amidst Chaos
  • Egan Bernal and Mikel Landa outlast FDJ riders, who suffered a mechanical.
  • Johan: “It’s not the same feeling. There’s no victory salute...no podium. But it’s a win. Somebody had to win, and Bernal won it." ([04:53], [05:07])

2. Team UAE Tactics: A Pattern of Confusion

• Soler’s Role and UAE’s Strategy Under Scrutiny ([06:28] - [13:13])
  • Marc Soler was in the break for a stage win, not strictly as Almeida’s backup.
  • Johan: “He didn’t need to be in there...What they need to focus on now is how to put the pressure on Jonas and on Visma.” ([06:28])
  • The UAE team lost valuable support for Joao Almeida on crucial climbs, as domestiques pursued personal objectives.
  • Spencer (on Jay Vine): “It’s like he went out partying...Now the drinking is a problem. The breakaways have become a problem. They’re affecting the life of UAE.” ([10:11])
• Leadership and Decision Making
  • Johan: “From now on, nobody goes in the break. We stay with our leader...But that was not the case.” ([10:49])
  • Discussion on the negative impact of repeated solo efforts in the break for GC ambitions.

3. Wider Ramifications: Are the Protests Winning?

• Impact on Race and Rider Safety ([13:33] - [18:37])
  • Organizers and UCI unable to guarantee a safe, full stage finish.
  • Johan: “If the security of the riders is in danger and you can’t guarantee it, there’s not that many options, in my opinion.” ([16:19])
• Possibility of More Cancelled/Modified Stages
  • Both express concern that protest groups will be emboldened after repeated disruption success.
  • Spencer: “Are we going to see another successful uphill finish at this race?” ([13:33])
  • Question raised: if safety cannot be guaranteed, should the race be called off?
• Financial Implications
  • Johan confirms start and finish towns pay fees, but ASO’s deep pockets make those losses less critical compared to the Tour.

4. Highlights and Notable Performers

• Impressive Rides Despite Circumstances ([19:08] - [21:20])
  • Nico Denz: Rode impressively to nearly seize a mountain stage as a heavier rider.
  • FDJ’s Young Guns: Bria Roland and Brass Alfonso
    • Spencer: “Roland...This is the second time I believe he's come [in top three],...super impressive ride. He's 22 years old.” ([19:39])
  • Groupama-FDJ’s development system praised for producing strong neo-pros.

5. Stage 17 Preview: Tactical Dilemmas & Betting Picks

• Profile and Difficulty ([24:54] - [29:28])
  • Short (143km), mountainous, with ~3250m of climbing and a brutal final ascent (first 5km averaging 11%).
  • Likely outcome: Teams must decide between defending current GC and targeting a stage win.
• Predictions and Odds
  • Johan’s Pick: Joao Almeida (+300) in a sprint—"He has to win...if he still wants a chance.”
  • Spencer’s Pick: Jonas Vingegaard (+200)—“I could see him attacking at the bottom...and holding them off.”
  • Johan’s Wildcard: Jai Hindley (+1400) as the third-strongest climber.
  • Spencer’s Wildcard: Finlay Pickering (+12,500)—top breakaway prospect if race is again truncated.
• Persistent Protest Threat
  • Both question if the stage will even finish as intended.
  • Spencer: “If they're in the breakaway tomorrow, like, what, what are we doing here, guys?” ([13:13])
  • Johan: “Are we going to have a mountaintop finish tomorrow? We don’t know.” ([28:34])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Bernal’s Comeback Win:
  • Johan: “Listen, obviously it’s great for Egon Bernal to win the stage...after his horrible accident. Of course, it’s not the same feeling. There’s no victory salute...But it’s a win.” ([05:07])
• On UAE’s Tactics:
  • Spencer: “It’s like he went out partying. Okay, great. But are you going to show up to work? No, he overslept, missed the alarm, didn’t show up to work.” ([10:11])
• On Protest Impact:
  • Johan: “There was already a lot of police today, and they still, they can’t keep it under control. I’m just thinking that this movement is going to get bigger and bigger.” ([18:15])
• On Potential Solutions:
  • Johan: “We’re going to end up doing circuit races in the future, Spencer. Something that is completely controllable.” ([30:24])
  • Spencer: “Are they gonna have to find a car racing track in Spain and do the last five stages on that? Not a good prospect at the moment.” ([30:31])

Important Timestamps

• Protest Disruption & Race Reroute: [04:53]–[05:07]
• Bernal’s Win & Landa’s Comeback Discussed: [05:07]–[06:30]
• UAE Tactics Breakdown, Vine’s Role: [10:09]–[13:13]
• Protest Analysis & Organizer Response: [13:33]–[18:37]
• FDJ Young Talent: [19:39]–[21:20]
• Stage 17 Odds & Predictions: [24:54]–[29:28]
• Future of Racing and Security: [30:24]–[30:31]

Episode Tone & Style

The discussion is analytical, frank, and occasionally bemused, mixing deep cycling insider perspective with plain-spoken criticism—true to THEMOVE’s “ultimate insider” promise. The mood turns somber and reflective when considering the protests’ threat to cycling itself but lightens up when spotlighting young talent and making stage predictions.

Takeaways for Listeners

• Stage 16’s result is overshadowed by unresolved questions about protestor disruption and race security.
• Egan Bernal’s victory, though under unusual circumstances, is a testament to resilience.
• Tactical uncertainty reigns in top teams, particularly UAE, as internal and external chaos takes its toll.
• Stage 17’s outcome—and possibly the entire Vuelta—is hostage to whether the organizers can keep the race route secure.
• THEMOVE’s unvarnished opinions and real-time tactical analysis make for a compelling “insider’s look” when Grand Tour cycling is anything but predictable.