Tour de France Stage 11 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Episode Summary Title: Tour de France Stage 11 Preview | OŪTCOMES
Host: Lance Armstrong
Release Date: July 15, 2025

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Introduction

In this episode of THEMOVE, Lance Armstrong delves into a comprehensive preview of Stage 11 of the Tour de France, offering listeners a deep dive into the complexities and strategic elements that could determine the stage's outcome. Alongside host Spencer Martin, guest Johan Bruneil joins the conversation to provide expert analysis and predictions, transforming enthusiasts from mere spectators into informed insiders.

Course Analysis

Stage 11 presents a challenging 157-kilometer route from Toulouse back to Toulouse, immediately following a rest day. Unlike the typically straightforward Toulouse stages favoring sprinters, this stage introduces "lumpy terrain" characterized by multiple climbs averaging between 10% to 12% gradients. Notably, there are seven climbs in the last 45 kilometers, with the final ascent stretching 8.9 kilometers at an impressive 12.4% grade. This demanding profile sets the stage for potential breakaways and strategic maneuvers.

Predictions and Strategies

Spencer Martin opens the discussion by listing the betting odds for potential stage winners:

• Matthew Vanderpoel at +450
• Wout Van Aert at +600
• Jonathan Milan at +1600
• Caden Groves at +1800
• Tadipogacha at +2000
• Romain Gregoire, Axel Lawrence, and Quinn Simmons each at +2200
• Binyam Girmaya at +4000, among others.

He emphasizes the unpredictability of the stage, suggesting the possibility of both Vanderpoel and Van Aert making significant moves.

Johan Bruneil responds by recognizing the stage's accessibility for sprinters post-rest day but underscores the challenge posed by the seven demanding climbs. He posits, “...some of the sprinter teams will try to keep it together and hope that their sprinter can get over it” ([02:25]). Despite this, he highlights Caden Groves as a potential dark horse due to his form in stage races.

The conversation shifts to favoring Matthew Vanderpoel and Wout Van Aert as primary contenders. Bruneil argues, “Matthew van der Poel is my favorite to win the stage tomorrow” ([02:25]), citing Vanderpoel's versatility in both breakaways and sprint finishes. He notes that Vanderpoel can effectively navigate the final climb, positioning himself well for a sprint victory if comparable sprinters falter.

Spencer Martin expands on the strengths of Van Aert, recognizing his exceptional sprint capabilities. He muses, “I think Van Aert gets it” ([05:52]), suggesting that in a head-to-head sprint against Vanderpoel, Van Aert might edge out due to his Tour-specific form and experience.

Key Riders Discussion

Quinn Simmons emerges as another intriguing option. Spencer mentions, “Quinn Simmons was [odds] 2200” ([07:25]), highlighting Simmons' recent performance and his knack for late-stage breakaways. Bruneil concurs, adding that Simmons' eagerness and strong legs make him a viable contender, especially if team strategies allow him to operate freely in the breakaway.

Romain Gregoire is also brought into the conversation with odds of +2200. While Bruneil acknowledges Gregoire's potential, he expresses skepticism about whether Gregoire maintains his early race form. Nevertheless, he remains cautiously optimistic about Gregoire's chances, especially after a rest day that could rejuvenate his performance.

Betting Analysis

The hosts delve into the intricacies of stage betting, discussing how different rider profiles align with the stage's demands. Spencer articulates the strategic considerations, such as the impact of intermediate sprint points at 100 kilometers and their relevance to riders like Jonathan Milan, who might seek these points to stay competitive against advancing contenders like Tadipogacha.

Johan brings a seasoned perspective, analyzing how team dynamics, particularly from powerhouse teams like Team Vingard, will influence the breakaway's composition and the peloton's ability to control the race pace.

Historical References and Insights

A brief historical segment touches upon the legacy of American riders in the Tour de France. Spencer reflects, “The last American to win a Tour de France stage in the National Champions jersey was Lance Armstrong in 1993” ([09:28]), acknowledging Armstrong's iconic status while correcting a minor factual error regarding past stage winners. This segment serves to contextualize current race dynamics within the broader history of the sport.

Final Thoughts and Conclusion

As the discussion wraps up, both hosts underscore the unpredictability introduced by the stage's challenging profile and the riders' varied capabilities. Spencer humorously shares his personal fatigue from the rest day, likening it to the riders' potential struggles: “I feel more tired on this rest day than I have at any point during this tour” ([15:28]), emphasizing the human element behind the competition.

Johan hints at his plans to attend the stage's start, promising on-the-ground insights for future episodes, thereby maintaining listener engagement and anticipation for subsequent analyses.

Key Quotes

• Johan Bruneil [02:25]: “It's probably going to be easier if they're in a breakaway because they could make a smaller selection on that last climb... But if it's still together, I'M going to pick... Matthew van der Poel.”

• Spencer Martin [05:52]: “I think Van Aert gets it.”

• Spencer Martin [15:28]: “I feel more tired on this rest day than I have at any point during this tour.”

Conclusion

This episode of THEMOVE offers a nuanced and in-depth preview of Tour de France Stage 11, blending tactical analysis with engaging discourse on rider form and team strategies. Armstrong, Martin, and Bruneil collectively provide listeners with valuable insights, enriched by expert opinions and supported by real-time data such as betting odds and course specifics. Whether you're a die-hard cycling fan or a casual observer, this episode equips you with the knowledge to appreciate the strategic layers of one of cycling's most grueling stages.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

That's the reason why Vanderpoel is a good pick, because he can be in the breakaway or from. He can win from the peloton. I'm going to go just a slight variation on that. I'm going wout benart plus 600. I think in theory he can sprint fast. As we saw the other day, he was one of the fastest sprinters in the race. He has some sort of. There's something happens when he's sprinting against Matthew Vanderpoel and he seems to forget how to sprint. But if we just assume Vanderpolz for some reason is not there at the finish, I mean, as you said with van der Poel, like both these guys can get over that climb even with the front group and would be very, very hard to beat in the sprint. So I'm going wild. Ben arc plus 600. Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Bruneil, and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing on this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody, I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 11 of the Tour de France. 157km from Toulouse to Toulouse, right after the rest day. Instead of the straightforward Toulouse stage that's usually a sprint finish, we have some lumpy terrain around the city and then multiple climbs with a 10% average. Johan saying even maybe 12% average.8k from the finish into the city center. For the finish. I will list off the the odds and then we'll get Johan's take on who's going to win, how it's going to play out. Matthew Vanderpoel is the favorite at plus 450. Wout Van Art at plus 600. Jonathan Milan, plus 1600. Kaden Groves plus 1800. Tadipogacha plus 2000. I would be surprised if that happens. Roman Gregoire, plus 2200. Axel Lawrence, plus 2200. Quinn Simmons, plus 2200. Binyam Girmaya, plus 4000. It goes on and on. We'll call him out when we need to. But if you're still not like an expert in sports betting or you even want to check out the best signup bonuses in your area, make sure to check out NextBets. That's nxtbets.com betoutcomes. We have a partnership with them Naval show you where you can bet, where you live, where the best signup bonuses. Like, for example, you could bet $5 on FanDuel in Colorado and get 150 free dollars to gamble with. So you cannot afford to not. Check this out. Nxtbets.com betoutcomes Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? It seems probably like a breakaway stage, but. And then who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, it's a difficult one. You know, if you look at the overall elevation, 1700 meters, it's very accessible for the sprinters after a rest day also. So I would assume that some of the sprinter teams will try to keep it together and hope that their sprinter can get over it. I'm thinking about probably like one of the sprinters that can could make it over, if I have to name one, would be probably Caden Groves. Kaden Groves. You know, he's a solid rider. He usually gets better through the stage races, but I still think it's going to be difficult. You know, there's seven climbs in the last 45 kilometers and that last climb, it's 8, 900 meters. And it does say on the official profile, it does say 12.4%. That's steep. So, you know, if guys like, I mean, we'll see also, I mean, if it's together, Bogacha would probably try there. I think it would be not, not wise to do that. Why would he. But still, a guy like Matthew van der Poel, well, von Art, explosive riders can probably drop the sprinters there. So I'm going to go for Mathieu van der Pool. The last time I checked, he was at 450. I don't know if you find him anywhere better than that. 500 maybe somewhere. But especially because Matthew van der Poel can be in the breakaway and if it's still all together, he can, he can. He will be in the front on that, on that last climb. And if some riders, some sprinters don't make it back, he can win in the sprint also. So Matthew van der Poel is my favorite to win the stage tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

He's plus 450 on Caesars. The logic is sound. I agree with you that. The only thing that I can't quite figure out is there's a sprint point pretty late in the race, like 100k in, and it's a short stage, so that's 57k to the finish line. Basically, Milan kind of needs those points because he's not that far ahead of Pagacha and Pagacha is going to start racking him up here in the next few stages. So either little check will control or Milan will get into the breakaway to get those. That's the reason why Vanderpoel is a good pick, because he can be in the breakaway or from. He can win from the peloton. I'm going to go just a slight variation on that. I'm going Wout Van Art plus 600. I think in theory he can sprint fast. As we saw the other day, he was one of the fastest sprinters in the race. He has some sort of. There's something happens when he's sprinting against Matthew Vanderpoel and he seems to forget how to sprint. But if we just assume Vanderpoel for some reason is not there at the finish, I, I mean, as you said, with Vanderpoel, like, both these guys can get over that climb, even with the front group, and would be very, very hard to beat in the sprint. So I'm going wild. Ben Aert plus 600.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, that's a good one.

[Spencer Martin]

Even.

[Johan Bruneil]

I think even you can't compare Walt Van Aert in the Tour against Mathieu Van der Poel versus, you know, other occasions in Classics. Right. I think Walt Van Aert is a Tour de France rider. He usually gets to his best form during the Tour. So I'm not even excluding if, If Van Aert is there and Van der Poel is there and they sprint, I think. I think Van Aert gets it.

[Spencer Martin]

And we know that Visma will not have an issue with him going in the breakaway. So he'll be active. I'd assume Vanderpoel is going to do the same thing.

[Johan Bruneil]

Visma won't, but. Visma won't. But will Trina Vingard be okay with it?

[Spencer Martin]

Can you imagine Simon Yates's DMs? She must have been upset with them, just all over him. But if it's not one of these two, I mean, the danger is it's a breakaway. Both these guys are there. Multiple people get over the climb, or they get over the climb with each other and they start staring at each other. Is there anyone else who could win? Because that is how someone else would win.

[Johan Bruneil]

It's a possible scenario. And even. Even from a, Even from a breakaway, if both of them are in the breakaway, it's still no guarantee. It's probably going to be easier if they're in a breakaway because they could make a smaller selection on that last climb. Right. Those two riders. But. But if it's still together, I'M going to pick. I mean, and even from a breakaway, Romain Gregory from Groupama FDG + 2200. He's been trying a few times. My only doubt a bit is, is he still as fresh as the first three four stages? Because the first three four stages, he was really, really good. We're stage 11 now. It was a break. It was a rest day today, so that could obviously be in his favor, but there's some really tired guys already, so. But still, I think Romain Gregory is the type of rider who could win this stage.

[Spencer Martin]

I feel more tired on this rest day than I have at any point during this tour, so if these guys are anything like me, they're going to be struggling tomorrow. He's 22 years old, pretty young. I'm going to go with another young rider. Similar vein, Quinn Simmons, 24 years old, plus 2200 for the win. We saw on Monday that he was incredibly strong. And assuming George and Cappy has freed him from his teamwork at Little Trek, he'll be out there in that break, even if it's a. I mean, I don't think he'll be working for Jonathan Milan on that final climb. I think he'll just be trying to follow the, the top guys over. And he is a knack for getting away at the end of stages like this. So I'm going. Quinn Simmons was 2200.

[Johan Bruneil]

Okay, well, that's. Yeah, I think, I think, you know, he showed, he definitely showed his, his, his strength yesterday. You know, he has really good legs. He's eager for a stage win. It all depends. It depends what what Little Track wants to do tomorrow with. With Jonathan Milan and if he's going to be on, on duty or not.

[Spencer Martin]

He could be in the break with Milan. I mean, yeah, I guess they could. They could burn him controlling the stage, but I, if I was little check. I'd prefer to have him up there with Milan for the intermediate intermed.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, the problem is, Spencer, it's the Tour de France and, you know, half the peloton wants to go in the breakaway tomorrow because they know this breakaway is gonna. In the next three, four days, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's gonna take forever for that thing to get going. You know, the last American to win a Tour de France stage in the National Champions jersey, Bradley Wiggins. Knew the answer to this, I was sure.

[Johan Bruneil]

Last American to win a stage in the tour in.

[Spencer Martin]

In the National Champions jersey in the.

[Johan Bruneil]

National Championships jersey, Jonathan Boyer.

[Spencer Martin]

Lance Armstrong. Lance Armstrong, 1993. I didn't know.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, In. In the voyage. Somewhere in. Yeah, I remember. Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. I. I didn't get that one either. He looked at me like I was an idiot. Well, let's take. I was in.

[Johan Bruneil]

I was in that race, so I should have known. He beat Raul Alcala.

[Spencer Martin]

It was his first year pro, right?

[Johan Bruneil]

It must have been like 20. It was 93. So his second year. Yeah. First year pro. Yeah. First full year pro. Yeah. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

That's pretty impressive.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow. Let's take a quick break and then we will do your head to heads when we come back, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Manu Kora Honey. Are you looking for something simple and delicious to add to your wellness rout? Well, look no further because Manukaura honey puts all other honeys to shame. It's rich, creamy and has a deep, complex flavor that makes you want to eat it straight off the spoon. Which is the first thing I do when I wake up at 4:45am to watch the beginning of every Tour de France stage. And what really sets Manukur apart is what's inside. It's packed with powerful nutrients that support immunity and gut health, thanks to the bioactive rich nectar the bees collect from the Manuka tea tree in New Zealand, which is where manukura is harvested. This is honey with superpowers, ethically produced, wildly delicious and a real upgrade from your average sweetener. If this sounds interesting, head to manukora.com themove to save up to 31% plus $25 with the free gifts with the starter kit which comes with an MGO850 plus Manuka Honey Jar 5 Honey Travel Sticks which I have with me here in Aspen. A wooden spoon and a guidebook. That's manukora.com themove to save 31% plus $25 worth of free gifts. See the in the show notes, everybody. This episode is brought to you by Mint Mobile. You know what doesn't belong in your epic summer plans? Getting burned by your old wireless bill. While you're planning your beach trips, barbecues, long weekends, or even going to the Tour de France, your wireless bill should be the last thing holding you back. That's why I've recently switched to Mint Mobile. As you should too. With Mint, I get the same great coverage and speed I'm used to, but for way less money. All their plans come with high speed data and unlimited talk and text on the nation's largest 5G network. And I love that I could keep my own phone number. It made switching super easy. What am I going to get a new number that no one knows how to get in touch with me. No thank you. I also use 5G data way more than your average person because I often do this podcast and my newsletter on 5G data. So Mint is incredibly important to my everyday life. And this year, skip breaking a squat and and breaking the bank. Get this new customer offer and your three month unlimited wireless plan for just 15 bucks a [e-mail] themove that's mintmobile.com themove for three months. For just 15 bucks a month. You've got to do this upfront payment of $45 required equivalent to $15 a month limited time customer offer for first three months only. Speeds may slow above 35 gigs on the limited plan. Taxes and fees extra. See Mint Mobile for details. All right, back to the show. All right, Johan, so your daily head to heads. You did pretty well last stage. So let's see if you can continue your hot streak. The first one, I don't think, I don't think this one should be picked, but I'll leave it up to you.

[Johan Bruneil]

Wow.

[Spencer Martin]

Wout Bernard minus 116 versus Matthew Vanderpoel. Minus 116. I think you're better off betting on both of them that win the stage.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. So John or Tim earlier plus 300. Jonathan Milan minus 450. Pretty interesting one, especially if you consider Milan might be in the breakaway.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, but normally Milan always finishes ahead of of Melier in this one. Whether it's from a break or if it's in the.

[Spencer Martin]

If it's the game, I guess Merlier.

[Johan Bruneil]

Won'T care, won't make it over the climb.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And Milan will have to fight for everything. Yeah. Minus 450. I guess we have to go with him. Remco Evanopole -172 vs Primos Roglich -120. 126.

[Johan Bruneil]

Primos didn't look mad, you know, yesterday. I'm starting to feel better about Primos bit by bit. Not, not for the win obviously, but you know, for a good, good Tour de France. Finally I'm going to go Primos.

[Spencer Martin]

I like that. He looked really good yesterday. He's not crashed. I feel like, I guess we're part of the media, so we're part of the problem. But no one's talk. We have an uncrashed primos.

[Johan Bruneil]

Uhhuh.

[Spencer Martin]

10 days into the Tour like that podium. Don't, don't write him off for that podium. T paar minus 220 versus Jonas Verd plus 162.

[Johan Bruneil]

Jonas.

[Spencer Martin]

Interesting. All right, I like that. Ben Gai minus 172 versus Paul Pinhut plus 126.

[Johan Bruneil]

I don't know, I mean, I. I just, I mean, it's just hard to. Hard for me to think that the sprinters will make it over those seven climbs.

[Spencer Martin]

They probably won't, which makes this even more interesting. So then how do they finish in the pack?

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah, well, I mean, if they don't make it, then it's basically a lottery, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Then I guess you should pick Paul. Right. Because if it's a lottery, if it's a coin flip and he's better than 100, mathematically, that's the one you should pick.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah. Open way.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. All right. Anything else before we take off and prepare for tomorrow's stage?

[Johan Bruneil]

Going to bed because I have an early wake up tomorrow and I'm going to the Tour de France.

[Spencer Martin]

Exciting.

[Johan Bruneil]

So I will report from there to you guys.

[Spencer Martin]

So you'll be at the finish tomorrow in Toulouse?

[Johan Bruneil]

I don't know, maybe. Could be.

[Spencer Martin]

And then you'll definitely be at Otacom.

[Johan Bruneil]

I'll be at the start of the stage. I'm not going to the finish on Otacom because I have still nightmares from my days to make it back down.

[Spencer Martin]

I was gonna say it's a total trap.

[Johan Bruneil]

It. It could take two to three hours to get down from that glam. So no, I won't, I won't go up.

[Spencer Martin]

I was going to go to Isla 2000 last year and I didn't go at the last second. And the people that went, these guys told me they didn't get back until 2am it is because it's just one way up, one way down. I mean, it is a disaster leaving these summit finishes.

[Johan Bruneil]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, well, thanks, Johan. We will be back tomorrow to predict the OTICOM stage. Stage 12.

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