Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OŪTCOMES - THEMOVE

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary
Episode: Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OUTCOMES
Release Date: July 18, 2025
Host/Author: Lance Armstrong

Introduction

In the "Tour de France Stage 14 Preview" episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve deep into the intricacies of one of cycling's most challenging mountain stages. This episode offers listeners an insider's perspective on the upcoming race, blending expert analysis with strategic predictions to paint a comprehensive picture of what to expect on this pivotal day.

Stage 14 Overview

Spencer Martin kicks off the discussion by highlighting the formidable nature of Stage 14, describing it as "one of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far" despite the Tour's overall tough terrain. The stage features a grueling 20-kilometer climb at Coldu Tourmalet, followed by a challenging ascent to Lucien Superbanier, both classified as Hors Catégorie (HC) climbs. The hosts emphasize the stage's difficulty, noting the extensive elevation gain and the technical demands it will place on the riders.

Key Predictions and Betting Insights

The conversation swiftly transitions to betting odds and predictions for the stage's outcome. Spencer Martin shares the current odds:

Niels Pollatzek: +110
Jonas Vingegaard: +1100
Mateusz Koniuk: +1400
Sepkus: +1600
Simon Yates: +2000
Florian Lipowitz: +2200
Tobias Armsman: +2200

He explains the betting terminology, clarifying that a "+110" means a $100 bet would yield $110 in profit. Johan Berniel concurs with Martin's top pick, reaffirming his confidence in Niels Pollatzek to secure the stage win. At [02:03], Berniel states:

"I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again. Plus 110. He's my pick for doing."

Spencer echoes this sentiment, expressing surprise at Pollatzek's favorable odds:

"I'm actually surprised he's +110. The reason I'm so convinced it's today is not because people want to challenge today. This race is pretty much over the way it is currently." [03:20]

Rider Performance and Team Strategies

The hosts analyze the performance of key riders like Remco Evenepoel, who has been struggling in the stage's second and third segments. Berniel observes:

"If Remco sees that tomorrow again, he doesn't have good legs and he gets gapped, it's not going to need a lot of drilling." [05:07]

They draw parallels to Evenepoel's past performance in similar stages, recalling his difficult experience on the Tourmalet during the Vuelta:

"Reminds me of the stage a bit." [05:13]

Spencer adds context about Evenepoel's current standing and the strategies of dominant teams like Red Bull:

"The team I think about Red Bull needs something from this Tour. Big, big team. They're going to drill it on the Tourmalet because they're going to try to drop Remco as early as possible." [03:20]

Potential Breakaway Scenarios

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the likelihood of a successful breakaway. Johan proposes Simon Yates as a wild card entrant from the break, citing his recent stage win and tactical acumen:

"Simon Yates at +2000 is my wild card to win from the breakaway." [09:28]

Spencer considers other potential breakaway heroes, including Luke Plapp, although he remains skeptical about their chances:

"I'm picking someone, really, Just because of the price and the fact that they were the fourth fastest climber on the climb section of the time shell today." [09:52]

Points Classification and Jersey Contention

The hosts shift focus to the points classification, debating the prospects of contenders like Carlos Rodriguez and Ben O'Connor. Johan supports Rodriguez for his improved performance:

"Carlos Rodriguez over Ben O'Connor." [12:19]

They also discuss the challenges faced by Jonathan Milan in maintaining his lead in the points jersey, attributing his struggles to the aggressive nature of breakaways depleting his point-scoring opportunities:

"I don't think they understand how hard it's going to be for Milan to score points from here on end." [15:31]

Jersey Ambitions and Rider Motivations

A compelling segment of the episode explores the ambitions of Pogacar, who aims to become the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys (Green, Yellow, and Polka Dots). Berniel reflects on Pogacar's relentless drive:

"What may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys." [06:27]

Spencer admires Pogacar's dedication, emphasizing his willingness to sacrifice personal comfort for victory:

"He's not going to come here and be like Niels politics, away from his family at altitude camp. He wants me to win. This is what we need to do." [07:14]

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Spencer and Johan reaffirm their predictions and provide final betting tips, encouraging listeners to engage with the race strategically. They anticipate that Pogacar will dominate the stage unless a breakaway successfully counters his formidable prowess.

Johan concludes with a strong endorsement of Pogacar's chances to secure the green jersey:

"I think Bogacha wins the green." [15:24]

Spencer agrees, critiquing the bookmakers' undervaluation of Pogacar's abilities:

"I think the books have not correctly weighted this." [15:31]

Final Remarks

This episode of THEMOVE offers a nuanced and expert-driven preview of Stage 14 of the Tour de France, blending tactical analysis with strategic betting insights. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide listeners with a thorough understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and potential outcomes, making it an invaluable resource for both casual fans and avid followers of professional cycling.

Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the transcript have been excluded to focus solely on the episode's substantive discussions.

Transcript

Spencer Martin (0:00)

The, the record is within reach here. The all time record for stage wins. Like he has. He has to do this.

Johan Berniel (0:06)

Well, yeah, okay, well that's, I don't think that's really on his mind, Spencer. You know what, what may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys. Green, yellow and polka dots.

Spencer Martin (0:21)

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a GAM problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are predicting stage 14 of the Tour de France, one of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far, which isn't saying much because we've only really had one mountain stage, but probably one of the hardest mountain stages in the race period. We go over the Coldu Tourmalet to kick things off. 20 kilometer climb, cold Aspen, Paris, Sword and then finishes at Lucian Superbanier, which is another extremely long HC climb. Not going to be an easy day. I'll list off the odds before I do that. If you want to bet and you're confused how to do it, do not worry, we have a partnership with Next bets. Go to nxtbets.com BET outcomes. It will show you exactly where to bet, where you live and the best signup bonuses and the best offers at each book. For example, you go to FanDuel in Colorado. You, you open an account, you bet $5, you're getting 150 free dollars sent your way. I would recommend, like I said yesterday, to put it on our favorite for today. The favorite for the for the books is tied up a at +110. Jonas Vinegard + 1100. Mateuszkamoza + 1400. Sepkus + 1600. Simon Yates + 2000. Florian Lipowitz + 2200. Time and Armsman + 2200. It goes on and on. For example, if you don't know what we're talking about, plus 110 would mean if you bet a hundred dollars, you win $110 of profit, which is probably exactly what I'm going to do. But Johan, how do you see this playing out and who do you think is going to win?

Johan Berniel (2:03)

As you say, Spencer, it's a hard stage. You know, it's 180 kilometers, 5,000 meters of elevation and especially two monster climbs, horse category from the long side. So, you know, there's a debate, I had a debate with Bradley about it actually. What, what he thinks is the, he thinks this is the hardest side. I, I remember the other side being the hardest side from, from Langi. It depends how you look at it. It's super long T, super high. And then we have Aspen and we have Per, which is part of what they did today. And then Super Banier, which is also a very hard horse country climb. Taking that into account, I don't think it really matters much if there's a break or not. Unless there's a really, really, really stop fire in the peloton and there's like 20, 30 guys up the road and they get 10, 15 minutes and even then it's gonna need to be a really good climber to make it over the turmoil and then super one year with those two other climbs in between. So I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again. Plus 110. He's my pick for doing.