THEMOVE Podcast Summary
Episode: Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OUTCOMES
Release Date: July 18, 2025
Host/Author: Lance Armstrong
Introduction
In the "Tour de France Stage 14 Preview" episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve deep into the intricacies of one of cycling's most challenging mountain stages. This episode offers listeners an insider's perspective on the upcoming race, blending expert analysis with strategic predictions to paint a comprehensive picture of what to expect on this pivotal day.
Stage 14 Overview
Spencer Martin kicks off the discussion by highlighting the formidable nature of Stage 14, describing it as "one of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far" despite the Tour's overall tough terrain. The stage features a grueling 20-kilometer climb at Coldu Tourmalet, followed by a challenging ascent to Lucien Superbanier, both classified as Hors Catégorie (HC) climbs. The hosts emphasize the stage's difficulty, noting the extensive elevation gain and the technical demands it will place on the riders.
Key Predictions and Betting Insights
The conversation swiftly transitions to betting odds and predictions for the stage's outcome. Spencer Martin shares the current odds:
- Niels Pollatzek: +110
- Jonas Vingegaard: +1100
- Mateusz Koniuk: +1400
- Sepkus: +1600
- Simon Yates: +2000
- Florian Lipowitz: +2200
- Tobias Armsman: +2200
He explains the betting terminology, clarifying that a "+110" means a $100 bet would yield $110 in profit. Johan Berniel concurs with Martin's top pick, reaffirming his confidence in Niels Pollatzek to secure the stage win. At [02:03], Berniel states:
"I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again. Plus 110. He's my pick for doing."
Spencer echoes this sentiment, expressing surprise at Pollatzek's favorable odds:
"I'm actually surprised he's +110. The reason I'm so convinced it's today is not because people want to challenge today. This race is pretty much over the way it is currently." [03:20]
Rider Performance and Team Strategies
The hosts analyze the performance of key riders like Remco Evenepoel, who has been struggling in the stage's second and third segments. Berniel observes:
"If Remco sees that tomorrow again, he doesn't have good legs and he gets gapped, it's not going to need a lot of drilling." [05:07]
They draw parallels to Evenepoel's past performance in similar stages, recalling his difficult experience on the Tourmalet during the Vuelta:
"Reminds me of the stage a bit." [05:13]
Spencer adds context about Evenepoel's current standing and the strategies of dominant teams like Red Bull:
"The team I think about Red Bull needs something from this Tour. Big, big team. They're going to drill it on the Tourmalet because they're going to try to drop Remco as early as possible." [03:20]
Potential Breakaway Scenarios
A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the likelihood of a successful breakaway. Johan proposes Simon Yates as a wild card entrant from the break, citing his recent stage win and tactical acumen:
"Simon Yates at +2000 is my wild card to win from the breakaway." [09:28]
Spencer considers other potential breakaway heroes, including Luke Plapp, although he remains skeptical about their chances:
"I'm picking someone, really, Just because of the price and the fact that they were the fourth fastest climber on the climb section of the time shell today." [09:52]
Points Classification and Jersey Contention
The hosts shift focus to the points classification, debating the prospects of contenders like Carlos Rodriguez and Ben O'Connor. Johan supports Rodriguez for his improved performance:
"Carlos Rodriguez over Ben O'Connor." [12:19]
They also discuss the challenges faced by Jonathan Milan in maintaining his lead in the points jersey, attributing his struggles to the aggressive nature of breakaways depleting his point-scoring opportunities:
"I don't think they understand how hard it's going to be for Milan to score points from here on end." [15:31]
Jersey Ambitions and Rider Motivations
A compelling segment of the episode explores the ambitions of Pogacar, who aims to become the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys (Green, Yellow, and Polka Dots). Berniel reflects on Pogacar's relentless drive:
"What may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys." [06:27]
Spencer admires Pogacar's dedication, emphasizing his willingness to sacrifice personal comfort for victory:
"He's not going to come here and be like Niels politics, away from his family at altitude camp. He wants me to win. This is what we need to do." [07:14]
Conclusion and Final Thoughts
As the episode wraps up, Spencer and Johan reaffirm their predictions and provide final betting tips, encouraging listeners to engage with the race strategically. They anticipate that Pogacar will dominate the stage unless a breakaway successfully counters his formidable prowess.
Johan concludes with a strong endorsement of Pogacar's chances to secure the green jersey:
"I think Bogacha wins the green." [15:24]
Spencer agrees, critiquing the bookmakers' undervaluation of Pogacar's abilities:
"I think the books have not correctly weighted this." [15:31]
Final Remarks
This episode of THEMOVE offers a nuanced and expert-driven preview of Stage 14 of the Tour de France, blending tactical analysis with strategic betting insights. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide listeners with a thorough understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and potential outcomes, making it an invaluable resource for both casual fans and avid followers of professional cycling.
Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the transcript have been excluded to focus solely on the episode's substantive discussions.