Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary
Episode: Tour de France Stage 14 Preview | OUTCOMES
Release Date: July 18, 2025
Host/Author: Lance Armstrong

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Introduction

In the "Tour de France Stage 14 Preview" episode of THEMOVE, hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel delve deep into the intricacies of one of cycling's most challenging mountain stages. This episode offers listeners an insider's perspective on the upcoming race, blending expert analysis with strategic predictions to paint a comprehensive picture of what to expect on this pivotal day.

Stage 14 Overview

Spencer Martin kicks off the discussion by highlighting the formidable nature of Stage 14, describing it as "one of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far" despite the Tour's overall tough terrain. The stage features a grueling 20-kilometer climb at Coldu Tourmalet, followed by a challenging ascent to Lucien Superbanier, both classified as Hors Catégorie (HC) climbs. The hosts emphasize the stage's difficulty, noting the extensive elevation gain and the technical demands it will place on the riders.

Key Predictions and Betting Insights

The conversation swiftly transitions to betting odds and predictions for the stage's outcome. Spencer Martin shares the current odds:

• Niels Pollatzek: +110
• Jonas Vingegaard: +1100
• Mateusz Koniuk: +1400
• Sepkus: +1600
• Simon Yates: +2000
• Florian Lipowitz: +2200
• Tobias Armsman: +2200

He explains the betting terminology, clarifying that a "+110" means a $100 bet would yield $110 in profit. Johan Berniel concurs with Martin's top pick, reaffirming his confidence in Niels Pollatzek to secure the stage win. At [02:03], Berniel states:

"I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again. Plus 110. He's my pick for doing."

Spencer echoes this sentiment, expressing surprise at Pollatzek's favorable odds:

"I'm actually surprised he's +110. The reason I'm so convinced it's today is not because people want to challenge today. This race is pretty much over the way it is currently." [03:20]

Rider Performance and Team Strategies

The hosts analyze the performance of key riders like Remco Evenepoel, who has been struggling in the stage's second and third segments. Berniel observes:

"If Remco sees that tomorrow again, he doesn't have good legs and he gets gapped, it's not going to need a lot of drilling." [05:07]

They draw parallels to Evenepoel's past performance in similar stages, recalling his difficult experience on the Tourmalet during the Vuelta:

"Reminds me of the stage a bit." [05:13]

Spencer adds context about Evenepoel's current standing and the strategies of dominant teams like Red Bull:

"The team I think about Red Bull needs something from this Tour. Big, big team. They're going to drill it on the Tourmalet because they're going to try to drop Remco as early as possible." [03:20]

Potential Breakaway Scenarios

A significant portion of the discussion focuses on the likelihood of a successful breakaway. Johan proposes Simon Yates as a wild card entrant from the break, citing his recent stage win and tactical acumen:

"Simon Yates at +2000 is my wild card to win from the breakaway." [09:28]

Spencer considers other potential breakaway heroes, including Luke Plapp, although he remains skeptical about their chances:

"I'm picking someone, really, Just because of the price and the fact that they were the fourth fastest climber on the climb section of the time shell today." [09:52]

Points Classification and Jersey Contention

The hosts shift focus to the points classification, debating the prospects of contenders like Carlos Rodriguez and Ben O'Connor. Johan supports Rodriguez for his improved performance:

"Carlos Rodriguez over Ben O'Connor." [12:19]

They also discuss the challenges faced by Jonathan Milan in maintaining his lead in the points jersey, attributing his struggles to the aggressive nature of breakaways depleting his point-scoring opportunities:

"I don't think they understand how hard it's going to be for Milan to score points from here on end." [15:31]

Jersey Ambitions and Rider Motivations

A compelling segment of the episode explores the ambitions of Pogacar, who aims to become the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys (Green, Yellow, and Polka Dots). Berniel reflects on Pogacar's relentless drive:

"What may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys." [06:27]

Spencer admires Pogacar's dedication, emphasizing his willingness to sacrifice personal comfort for victory:

"He's not going to come here and be like Niels politics, away from his family at altitude camp. He wants me to win. This is what we need to do." [07:14]

Conclusion and Final Thoughts

As the episode wraps up, Spencer and Johan reaffirm their predictions and provide final betting tips, encouraging listeners to engage with the race strategically. They anticipate that Pogacar will dominate the stage unless a breakaway successfully counters his formidable prowess.

Johan concludes with a strong endorsement of Pogacar's chances to secure the green jersey:

"I think Bogacha wins the green." [15:24]

Spencer agrees, critiquing the bookmakers' undervaluation of Pogacar's abilities:

"I think the books have not correctly weighted this." [15:31]

Final Remarks

This episode of THEMOVE offers a nuanced and expert-driven preview of Stage 14 of the Tour de France, blending tactical analysis with strategic betting insights. Spencer Martin and Johan Berniel provide listeners with a thorough understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and potential outcomes, making it an invaluable resource for both casual fans and avid followers of professional cycling.

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Note: Advertisements and non-content sections from the transcript have been excluded to focus solely on the episode's substantive discussions.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

The, the record is within reach here. The all time record for stage wins. Like he has. He has to do this.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, yeah, okay, well that's, I don't think that's really on his mind, Spencer. You know what, what may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddy Merckx to win all three jerseys. Green, yellow and polka dots.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a GAM problem, seek help from a professional resource. Host and guests may have financial interests in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Bernal. We are predicting stage 14 of the Tour de France, one of the hardest mountain stages we've had so far, which isn't saying much because we've only really had one mountain stage, but probably one of the hardest mountain stages in the race period. We go over the Coldu Tourmalet to kick things off. 20 kilometer climb, cold Aspen, Paris, Sword and then finishes at Lucian Superbanier, which is another extremely long HC climb. Not going to be an easy day. I'll list off the odds before I do that. If you want to bet and you're confused how to do it, do not worry, we have a partnership with Next bets. Go to nxtbets.com BET outcomes. It will show you exactly where to bet, where you live and the best signup bonuses and the best offers at each book. For example, you go to FanDuel in Colorado. You, you open an account, you bet $5, you're getting 150 free dollars sent your way. I would recommend, like I said yesterday, to put it on our favorite for today. The favorite for the for the books is tied up a at +110. Jonas Vinegard + 1100. Mateuszkamoza + 1400. Sepkus + 1600. Simon Yates + 2000. Florian Lipowitz + 2200. Time and Armsman + 2200. It goes on and on. For example, if you don't know what we're talking about, plus 110 would mean if you bet a hundred dollars, you win $110 of profit, which is probably exactly what I'm going to do. But Johan, how do you see this playing out and who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

As you say, Spencer, it's a hard stage. You know, it's 180 kilometers, 5,000 meters of elevation and especially two monster climbs, horse category from the long side. So, you know, there's a debate, I had a debate with Bradley about it actually. What, what he thinks is the, he thinks this is the hardest side. I, I remember the other side being the hardest side from, from Langi. It depends how you look at it. It's super long T, super high. And then we have Aspen and we have Per, which is part of what they did today. And then Super Banier, which is also a very hard horse country climb. Taking that into account, I don't think it really matters much if there's a break or not. Unless there's a really, really, really stop fire in the peloton and there's like 20, 30 guys up the road and they get 10, 15 minutes and even then it's gonna need to be a really good climber to make it over the turmoil and then super one year with those two other climbs in between. So I'm afraid I have to say it's going to be today again. Plus 110. He's my pick for doing.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's a good pick. He's my pick as well. I actually can't believe he's +110. The reason I'm so convinced it's today is not because people want to challenge today. This race is pretty much over the way it is currently. But we saw a man by the name of Remco Evenepoel do very, very bad in the second and third section of today's time trial. Still in third place overall. People want that third place spot. The team I think about Red Bull needs something from this Tour. Big, big team. They're going to drill it on the Tourmalet because they're going to try to drop Remco as early as possible, put him in trouble, and they're not going to want that break. That breakaway is going to get caught because people will be pressing the pace trying to get that third place spot. I think it all ends up. I don't even think Bogacha really even tries to win the stage. I think it just gets close and he puts some. He's going to put Niels Pollitt on the front. Niels Pollitt nails it back and he's going to win the stage. It's hard actually to imagine any, anyone else winning.

[Johan Berniel]

I have two thoughts about that. Spencer, what you said, the Red Bull drilling it, you know, first of all, they're going to drill it with who you know, they have Lipowitz and, and, and Primos. So they need to get, make sure that they get over the turmale with, you know, spending the least amount of energy. It may actually be that they don't need to drill it because, you know, knowing Remco, we all know he's a fantastic rider. Right. But something may be up. Something may be up. And, and once you get into that downward spiral, if Remco sees that tomorrow again, he doesn't have good legs and he gets gapped, it's not going to need a lot of drilling. And I think he's just gonna, just. Yeah, mentally, I think it's going to be difficult for Remco because he's used to be in the front all the time.

[Spencer Martin]

This is also bad memories for him. Remember there was a tourmaline stage in the Vuelta and he got dropped in the first climb.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, exactly.

[Spencer Martin]

Reminds me of the stage a bit.

[Johan Berniel]

Right. That was, was they finished on top of the turmoil, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And the. Yeah, I mean it's all, you know, it's kind of all the same roads like he got.

[Johan Berniel]

Was it Sepkus who won or was it Jonas who won? Jonas, Jonas. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Jonas won. But yeah, so that's number one. And then secondly, I think what we should, you know, have in mind when we talk about that this is going to be Pugachar. I just read an interview of him where he said, you know, this is, you know, this is the Tour de France. There's no, no, you're not even a question of giving away stage. Whenever we, we can win a stage, we have to go for it. If I would give away a stage or let someone else win, my team and my sponsors won't be happy. I get paid to win.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, he's also going for the, the record is within reach here. The all time record for stage wins. Like he has, he has to do well.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, okay, well that's, I don't, I don't think that's really on his mind, Spencer. I, you know what, what may be on his mind is, you know, being the first rider since Eddie Merckx to win all three jerseys. Green, yellow and polka dots.

[Spencer Martin]

I'm actually surprised he hasn't done it before.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, well, green, I mean, green was. I guess he's never been close to Queen. No.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. It's how he.

[Johan Berniel]

Mercks 1969 was the last rider who did that. The difference is that back then there was not a white jersey competition yet. But he was also the best young Rider. There was no. There was no. Just no jersey for it. But he would have won all four jerseys. You know, those are the things that today may be looking at. Yeah, I mean, yeah. I mean, you know, another stage, the record. I don't think. I just think. But today he just wants to win all the time. For no reason. For no reason. He just wants to win.

[Spencer Martin]

He likes to win. That's what he's here for. I mean, you do make sacrifice. We think of him as a fun loving guy, but you make sacrifices to be in as good a shape that he's in. He's not going to come here and be like Niels politics, away from his family at altitude camp. He wants me to win. This is what we need to do.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, that's what he says. And also he says, because the journalist asked, well, you're not afraid to make too many enemies. He said, well, it's not my purpose to make enemies. But he says, once I finish my career, I will have my friends and my family and I'm not ever going to Talk anymore with 99% of these people here.

[Spencer Martin]

That's the anti George right there. It's funny we're even having this conversation. Did anyone ever say at the height of Cavendish, like, oh, he shouldn't try to win this stage, he's winning too much? No, I don't ever recall that being talked about.

[Johan Berniel]

But that's different because it's a sprinter. He's not dominating the event, actually. Right. This is different because Pogacha is actually owning the whole event. He's owning the Tour. Right. A sprint.

[Spencer Martin]

Going to win every stage. Probably we'll talk about that a little bit more later, but. Or he's going to win every jersey. Maybe he could win every stage. That would be. If he was in the breakaway on Sunday. Winning the stage, that could be a little egregious. The yellow jersey getting clear. They'd probably let him go because they're all racing for second and third. But if Bogacho does not win, I think it has to be breakaway. I don't think anyone from the GC group can beat him. I mean, we saw this movie in the Alps last year. Like, he's just gonna mow them down when he comes to the finish line. I think it has to be breakaway. Who do you think could stay away and win if they get in the breakaway?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Not easy. Not easy. They have to have a lot of time. But, you know, I. I think I could see, you know, a guy like Simon Yates, for example, he's already won a stage, so he could get his second stage win. But. And in that case, you know, it will also fit the situation, because if Simon's in the. In the break, he could potentially have an excuse of saying, hey, you know what? I have my team behind. You know, we have a plan.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Not work too much. And Visma could say, okay, let's. Let's get safe for our money and go for the stage win. Right. Because so. And on top of that, I saw that Simon Yates took it really easy today on the time trial.

[Spencer Martin]

Really easy.

[Johan Berniel]

Might be for a reason. So Simon Yates at +2000 is my wild card to win from the breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. It's not a bad pick. You could imagine that happening. He would need a lot of time, but he does have the excuse. And I think on the stage like this, people were asking about the units. Like, I would bet a unit on Pagachar and then, like, 0.1 on the breakaway. So that'd be like $100. And then $10 on your wild card, if not 5. I'm picking someone, really, Just because of the price and the fact that they were the fourth fastest climber on the climb section of the time shell today. Luke Plapp, plus 10,000. Wow. I don't know where that ride came from, but we did see him getting a breakaway at the Giro and win. It's not. I mean, he has the engine to win. I'm acknowledging it probably won't happen, but if you just think about riders with the ability to physically get up the climbs in front of everybody tomorrow and his team. I mean, his team did this at the Giro with Chris Harper on the hardest stage. So it's not.

[Johan Berniel]

And also. And also, look, block himself. Also look, bluff himself. And he also won a stage. So the guy has a big engine, that's for sure. And so, yeah, I mean, if he. If he gets in the break and. Yeah. I mean, this ride is for a reason. You know, this performance today is for a reason. So he must be in really good shape.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Someone wrote into the move. I didn't have time to read the question, but they're like, why would Luke Plapp even try on this time trial? Probably. I mean, Bradley was saying, like, these guys are warming the legs up. Like, if they're going hard, they have other. They're thinking about the following mountain stages. So it does indicate he's thinking about getting in the breakaway.

[Johan Berniel]

It would be huge, man, for him.

[Spencer Martin]

What do you think?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, Team J, cold on. He needs a stageman.

[Spencer Martin]

They do they do. Yeah, I guess. Like, but even finished today. And he's like, yeah, I can't get the stage win. So that tells us that he's thinking about later in this race. Let's take a quick break and then we'll do Head to Heads, which you aced yesterday. Pretty good. You don't see that very often. And then I have a question about the points jersey are. Johan. We're back Head to Heads on Fanduel. Ben O' Connor, minus 116 versus Carlos Rodriguez, minus 116. We had the same one yesterday. Who do you think wins this. This matchup?

[Johan Berniel]

Let's see.

[Spencer Martin]

Rodriguez was actually not.

[Johan Berniel]

He was not terrible today.

[Spencer Martin]

No, no.

[Johan Berniel]

So I'm gonna go Carlos Rodriguez.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay.

[Johan Berniel]

Ben Connor will probably be bringing the breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

Probably driving another.

[Johan Berniel]

Another thing. Also, Spencer, what we need to have in mind, you know, for tomorrow. Um, yesterday for hotam, we saw extreme high temperatures. It's not going to be the case tomorrow. It's a lot cooler tomorrow. A lot cooler.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. I noticed today the high was like 22 or something.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, it's going to be the same, more or less, and even less so that some people probably can't deal with the extreme heat. I don't know if Ben o' Connor is one of those, but, you know, he. He was in the break yesterday and got dropped way too early. I mean, yeah, Rodriguez did a better time job, but not that much. You know, he was 33 seconds faster. No, actually, no. A little bit more. A little bit more. So, yeah, Carlos Rodriguez over Ben o'. Connor.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. And then this one. Another one. Don't. It's like. I don't know why this is on here. This is a total trap. Tatty Pagacha versus Jonas Vindergaard. Just bet on and it's minus 700 versus plus 410. Just bet on one of them to win stage. Yeah. And if you think it's going to be a breakaway, then bet on. You think it's going to win from the breakaway and hope they win. Primus raglich, minus 235. Actually, I don't know. To revisit that. Let's say a break wins. They'll still race to the top of that climb.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, it's still going to be Pogachar.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's still going to be. So Primus Raglich minus 235 versus Felix Gall, plus 172.

[Johan Berniel]

Primos.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, Primos. For sure. That guy's going for the podium, Tad. Epic.

[Johan Berniel]

Oh, I hope he. I hope he Put his socks on tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

I heard that might have been a Dan Bingham special, because that Dan didn't.

[Johan Berniel]

Really work that well.

[Spencer Martin]

No. Well, maybe he didn't overheat yesterday because of the socks and that's why he was so good today. Florian Lipowitz, minus 450 versus Remco Evanopol plus 300.

[Johan Berniel]

Floria.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Oscar Onley, minus 186. Plus Tobias Holland Johansson, plus 138.

[Johan Berniel]

Oscar only.

[Spencer Martin]

Oscar. Yeah. Oscar, I'm gonna, I'm gonna reach out to you on Instagram. We're gonna try to get you on the show. You're our new favorite rider on the move.

[Johan Berniel]

He, yeah, he, he, he took 50 seconds today on Johansson.

[Spencer Martin]

I know he is. Guys, that Tour of Switzerland is like an oddly predictive race. And in retrospect, so before you go, we had a little debate on the move about this, but I think Jonathan Milan personally is in big trouble in the points classification because it's not going to be, it's not like they're not rolling into these sprint finishes and doing a casual sprint. Like the breakaway is going to be fighting hard to get away and they could eat up these points. Milan is minus 290 to win. Tadipogato, this is your pick from the beginning of this, of the race. You got him at plus 700. He's at plus 360 right now. I'm thinking about betting on him. What do you think about that price?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah, I, I, I think, I think, I think Bogacha wins the green.

[Spencer Martin]

I think so, too. I think the books have not correctly weighted this. I don't think they understand how hard it's going to be for Milan to score points from here on end.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

And even these, like, flat stages are quite tricky. And it's like, even the Champs Elysees might not be a sure thing for sprinter.

[Johan Berniel]

Oh, no.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

I mean, it's different, it means different than the Olympics, you know, but. Yeah. How far is it from the moment from Martha to the Chaus to the finish on CH?

[Spencer Martin]

Actually, I wrote it 10k or something. Or recently it is. And they go straight there. I think it is like 10k.

[Johan Berniel]

Uhhuh.

[Spencer Martin]

Like, it's not. They, they just plunge straight down to the finish.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. The thing is, Spencer, you know, the thing is it's, you know, after three weeks, the peloton of the Tour, man, there's not going to be much fighting for position there. You know, like, it's not like the whole bunch is gonna.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

You know, What? Whatever. Do whatever you want. We're out of here.

[Spencer Martin]

Dive bomb in corners. It's actually shorter. It's only 6k to the finish line. Oh, wow.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Wow. That is. Yeah, that is going to be an interesting stage to watch. All right, Johan, anything else before we take off?

[Johan Berniel]

Nope, that's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thank you and we will be back tomorrow.

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