Tour de France Stage 15 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

Podcast Summary: THEMOVE – Tour de France Stage 15 Preview | Outcomes

Episode Details:

• Title: Tour de France Stage 15 Preview | Outcomes
• Release Date: July 19, 2025
• Host: Lance Armstrong

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Introduction to Stage 15

In this episode of THEMOVE, hosted by cycling legend Lance Armstrong, the focus is on previewing Stage 15 of the Tour de France, a 169-kilometer transition stage leading to Carcassonne. Armstrong, alongside co-host Johan Berniel, delves deep into the strategic elements of this classic stage, discussing the critical components that could influence the outcome.

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Race Dynamics and Breakaway Strategies

Johan Berniel opens the discussion by analyzing the stage's terrain, emphasizing the challenging Category 2 climb composed of 3 kilometers at a 10% gradient. He states:

"There is no sprinter who makes it over there." (00:19)

This steep climb sets the stage for a likely breakaway scenario, as sprinters would struggle to maintain their efforts. Berniel predicts a breakaway group of 10 to 15 riders, asserting that the stage will not favor a sprint finish due to the intense uphill segments.

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Favorite Predictions and Betting Insights

The conversation transitions into betting odds for the stage winner. Armstrong and Berniel discuss various contenders, highlighting Wout van Aert as the favorite at +600, followed by Matthew Vanderpoel (+800), Quinn Simmons (+1600), Kaden Groves (+2000), Arno De Le (+2200), and Victor Campenaerts (+2200).

Berniel confidently backs van Aert, noting his strategic approach and recent form:

"Walt has been quiet the last few days. He's obviously had this stage in mind... I think Van Aert is in the break tomorrow and winning the stage." (02:46)

However, Armstrong introduces an alternative pick:

"I'm going to go Matthew Vanderpoel at +800 because he's always up there, and he will be up there tomorrow, and he may win." (03:32)

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Historical Performance and Rider Form

Berniel reflects on previous performances, mentioning a conversation with Quinn Simmons' father, which highlighted Simmons' awareness and tactical nous in breakaways:

"He knew at the end. He knew right at the end. I spoke actually when I was at in Toulouse, I spoke to Adri, to his dad..." (05:11)

This insight reinforces Simmons' potential to leverage his experience for a stage win despite the strong competition.

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Strategic Considerations for Teams

The hosts discuss the implications of team strategies, particularly how teams like Trek might struggle to control the race due to the course's demands. Armstrong points out the difficulty in managing 60 kilometers of potential attacks, which could lead to a fragmented race dynamic:

"They're not going to try that hard today... Tomorrow is different... the break that goes can make it to the end." (07:58)

Berniel concurs, suggesting that riders like Victor Campenaerts could capitalize on the situation if given the freedom by their teams.

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Wildcard Contenders and Dark Horses

Armstrong introduces Ben Healy as a potential dark horse for the stage, noting his impressive form:

"Ben Healy will be in the break tomorrow. He's like climbing. He's in the top 10." (10:00)

While acknowledging his current standing (9th overall), Berniel dismisses concerns about his position, emphasizing his capability to influence the stage outcome regardless of general classification standings.

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Final Predictions and Conclusion

As the episode draws to a close, Berniel and Armstrong solidify their predictions:

• Wout van Aert (+600)
• Matthew Vanderpoel (+800)
• Quinn Simmons (+1600)
• Victor Campenaerts (+2200)

Berniel emphasizes the unpredictability inherent in breakaways, while Armstrong highlights the tactical depth and endurance required to secure a stage win in such a demanding profile.

"Quinn Simmons has already given a lot. He's been in a lot of breaks. Let's not forget he's still super young." (13:03)

The hosts conclude by hinting at the next episode, which will provide a preview of Stage 16 following the rest day.

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Key Takeaways:

• Stage 15 is anticipated to feature a significant breakaway due to the challenging climbs.
• Wout van Aert and Matthew Vanderpoel are the primary favorites, with personal insights supporting their chances.
• Quinn Simmons and Victor Campenaerts present strong alternatives, potentially disrupting the expected outcomes.
• Team dynamics, especially the ability to control or disrupt breakaways, play a crucial role in determining the stage winner.
• Ben Healy emerges as a noteworthy dark horse with potential to impact the stage despite his general classification position.

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This comprehensive analysis by Lance Armstrong and Johan Berniel offers listeners a nuanced understanding of Stage 15, blending tactical insights with betting perspectives, making it invaluable for both avid fans and casual followers of the Tour de France.

Transcript

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[Johan Berniel]

I cannot think of any other scenario than Breakaway. You know, especially after today's stage. Sprinters. I don't think sprinters can make. Would take a big effort from a team to keep this together and especially with that Cat 2 climb, which is, I mean, it's not, it's not long. It is, I mean, 3 kilometers at 10%, 3 kilometers at 10%. There is no sprinter who makes it over there.

[Spencer Martin]

And you keep going up after that.

[Johan Berniel]

And you keep going. So yeah, this is Breakaway.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spitzer Martin along with Johan Berniel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel. We are predicting stage 15 of the Tour de France, 169km to Carcassonne, the classic Tour de France transition stage. Going into the rest day, 2300 meters of climbing, sprint point about 2 or 1 third of the way through, which will be critical. I'll list off the odds and then we will predict who we think is going to win. W Benard is the favorite at plus 600. Matthew Vanderpoel at plus 800. Quinn Simmons at plus 1600. Kaden Groves at plus 2000. Arno De at plus 2200. Victor Campinart at plus 2200. It goes on and on. But Johan, well, before, before I kicked you, Johann, if you guys, if anyone listening wants to bet and they're confused about how to do it, Remember, go to nxtbets.com bet outcomes. You'll see where you can bet where you live and the best signup bonuses for each book. So even if you're like me and you've, you're already betting, maybe there's some sign up bonuses on a book I'm not, I'm not signed up for yet and I'm going to get free money. So I'm going to check that out right after the show. But Johan, how do you think this is Going to play out, I assume breakaway. And who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah, yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Spencer.

[Johan Berniel]

I cannot think of any other scenario than breakaway, you know, especially after today's stage. Sprinter says. I don't think sprinters can make. Would take a big effort from a team to keep this together. And especially with that Cat 2 climb, which is. I mean, it's not. It's not long. It is. I mean, three kilometers. Three kilometers at 10%. Three kilometers at 10%. There is no. There is no sprinter who makes it over.

[Spencer Martin]

And you keep going up after that.

[Johan Berniel]

And you keep going.

[Spencer Martin]

It's.

[Johan Berniel]

So, yeah, this is breakaway. Probably going to be a big group, you know, 10, 15 riders, probably. So I think we have to go to the usual subject suspects, Spencer, and I'm going to pick Walt von Aert at plus 600 to win the stage. You know, I think Walt has been quiet the last few days. He's obviously had this stage in mind, and there was not much he could do in this in the mountain stages. A part of, you know, going in a breakaway, but he couldn't go in breakaways. Definitely not on the Ventou, on the. On the tour. Malay. So I think Van Aert is in the break tomorrow and winning the stage.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, I think you're right. I think it's gonna be a breakaway. I was thinking about today because time in iron's been one, and I didn't pick him, and I had picked him in the past, and it made me realize, and this happens every Grand Tour we do. It's always the same people in these breakaways, and we pick someone that'll win. We don't pick them again. Some they win, and we're like, oh, wow, we're so stupid. So I'm going to go Matthew Vanderpoel at +800 because he's always up there, and he will be up there tomorrow, and he may win. And at that price, there's probably a greater chance of him winning than not winning. And he has to be in the breakaway because now he's committed to the green jersey fight. So obviously not a sure thing. Van Art could win, but I'm going to go. Matthew Vanderpoel.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, we don't. If they're both in there, we don't. I mean, and they come together to the finish. We don't know. Also worth noting, Spencer, a breakaway with both of them in there is definitely not a guarantee that one of them will win because, you know, they're the heavy favorites. And there's going to be anticipation and they have to carry the weight of the breakaway because everybody is saving a little bit when they're in there. But. But I think those two are the big. The big two favorites, Walt and Matthew. I agree.

[Spencer Martin]

Like what we saw just a few days ago, right where they're both up there. Quinn Simmons attacks them. Vanderpoel. I mean, the thing, I still am impressed by Vanderpoel chasing like, just dropping Simmons chasing down, almost chasing down the auburnsome and the other fellow. Yeah, Martin Schmidt. And not even knowing they were up the road, thinking he was off the front. So imagine if he knows the race situation, how good he could be.

[Johan Berniel]

He knew at the end. He knew right at the end. He knew. I spoke actually when I was at in Toulouse, I spoke to Adri, to his dad, and he told me the story that initially when he attacked from that, he thought that was an attack for the win because the guys he had in front of, he thought that those were the guys and that he was gonna catch them. And then he came over and he saw more motorbikes over there and then saw those two guys in the distance. So he knew that it was gonna be very difficult.

[Spencer Martin]

And I guess it doesn't really matter, right, because if you're away, you're gonna go really hard. If you're chasing someone, you're gonna go really hard in that situation. So probably didn't actually cost them, but you're right. I mean, they. It is tough for these guys when they're in there. Which brings me to my next question. If they get marked out of this move, who. Who benefits and who wins?

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I'm going to pick another. Another guy who's really, really riding really strong for the moment. Another Belgian and also a guy on Visma, Victor Campenaerts plus 2200. He definitely has the form to be in the break. If he has the freedom, and I guess he will have the freedom from Visma to go in the break, he could be the one of those guys who's good enough and could even take advantage of the presence of Vanart or Van der Poel. Let's say, for example, if Van der Poel is in it and vanart is not and Victor is in it, I think he has a chance to get away.

[Spencer Martin]

He definitely has a chance. That guy is an incredible form. Remember, he won a stage. It's a little later, but it was not dissimilar to this part of the race last year. And he won it from a sprint. So, yeah, he doesn't have to go solo. You actually could imagine him clipping off the front, winning at plus 2200. That's pretty good. But I'm going to go. As I said, it's going to be the same people. Quinn Simmons has been up there. Quinn Simmons is looking good. Quinn Simmons is +1800 on FanDuel. I'm going to pick him to finally come through and win a stage.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah. I had a chat with Quinn when I was there, and I told him, you know, I told him that he should be very confident because he has a stage win in his legs, the.

[Spencer Martin]

Way he's running now.

[Johan Berniel]

So, yeah, I backed that choice completely.

[Spencer Martin]

Before we go to our break, the only thing that concerns me about Quinn Simmons, and then I'm curious to get your take on it, is how is a sprint point going to be managed? It's like 60k in, you know, when I'm on the move, George and Lance are always like, the sprinters are going to go for it, but it's going to be pretty tough to control 60 km worth of attacks for Little Trek. Right.

[Johan Berniel]

Tomorrow is definitely different. Today was different because, you know, you have a big climb, you kind of know that you're not going to go to the end. So any breakaway that went on the flat knew that there was going to be extremely difficult. You have four brick climbs. Tomorrow is different. Tomorrow, the break that goes can make it to the end. So I personally think it's going to be extremely difficult to control. So I'm. I'm going to guess that Milan only has one choice. He has to go in the break.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

And Quinn will probably be there too.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. So that makes me feel better about Quinn Simmons, that I don't think. I don't even think they're going to try to control it, because I don't think they can control it. They didn't even really try that hard today. It just worked out for him. You're right, too, because today, if you know you have the legs to win, you know you can get away on the tourmaline, so you're not going to burn bullets. My pick loop plap immediately out there on the front on the fastest part of the course. And I thought, ooh, I don't know about this pick. Maybe wait for the massive climb that's coming up to try to get away. But let's go to a quick break and then we will go through your head. Heads.

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[Spencer Martin]

Heads. You got all but one right today, yesterday, however, whatever day it is. That's impressive. You're on a heater here. Keep it going. This is on FanDuel in the US Ben O' Connor - 116 vs Ben Healy. The Battle of the Bends, - 116.

[Johan Berniel]

Tomorrow, definitely Ben Healy.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, he'll be. Probably be in the breakaway.

[Johan Berniel]

He's a guy we should actually consider for stage win also, you know, I mean, Ben Healy will be in the break tomorrow. I mean, almost positive.

[Spencer Martin]

The only thing is he's. He's so good at getting a breakaways. He's like climbing. He's in the top 10.

[Johan Berniel]

Is he now in the top 10?

[Spencer Martin]

He's ninth overall. Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, that's not.

[Spencer Martin]

Obviously not good because he's 19 minutes back, though. So you're like.

[Johan Berniel]

Doesn't matter. It doesn't matter. That's, that's, that's irrelevant because the 7, 8, 9 and 10th are gonna, you know, if he's in the break, whose intent is it? Carlos Rodriguez.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Berniel]

And eighth and seventh.

[Spencer Martin]

Eighth is Johansson, who's like seven minutes in front of six minutes in front of him. Phyllis Gaul is in front of Johansson.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay. Yeah, that's okay. He has a chance to be in the break.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Because if you, if the break wins by three minutes.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

He doesn't even move a position, which is. It's crazy how spread out our GC is.

[Johan Berniel]

Healy. But listen, let's add Ben Healy as a wild, like the way they say La Fuga. De La Fuga. The wild card of the wild cards.

[Spencer Martin]

He's plus 4,000.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

I mean, he looked freaking strong today, like he finished one of the hardest stages of the race. 7th impressive from Ben Healy. All right, Kaden Groves. So Ben Healy, Kaden Groves, minus 260 versus Alberto Dianese plus 184.

[Johan Berniel]

Pain Groves.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. Julian Alaphilippe minus 126 versus Clemu Champusan, minus 108.

[Johan Berniel]

Shampoo San has like been very anonymous the last few stages. Right. So, I mean, it's going to come down to who is in the break, because those are. That are not in the break. They're not going to insist. You know, it's going to be. They're going to probably going to get dropped on that cat to climb 3km 10%. I don't think anybody else is going to insist there. So. Ah, let's get for. Let's go for. For Alafili.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Funny aside on Champuzan just because he's on Astana. We spent all this time in Astana, spent all this time figuring out how not to get relegated and then we find out two World Tour teams are merging for next year. So there's going to be an extra.

[Johan Berniel]

SP that's going to be good for.

[Spencer Martin]

Cos. Yeah, I think.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, unless. Unless, you know, X is.

[Spencer Martin]

We should keep an eye on that actually.

[Johan Berniel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Uno X is not. Especially if they top 10 at this race is not too far out of there. W. Vanart minus 260 versus Arno de Le plus 184W. All right, and then Mateo aka Matthew Vanderpol minus 235 versus Quinn Simmons plus 172.

[Johan Berniel]

I think I'm gonna have to say Matthew, he's just. And Quinn Simmons could get. Could be in the break and get away and everybody's watching Mathieu, but logically it should be mature.

[Spencer Martin]

He also. I'm still, I still am on your side on who's the more talented writer, him or Wild Van Art. But he's very talented and sometimes I feel like in Grand Tours focus is an issue. But now he's locked in on green and like, focus will not be an issue. Like, so he will minimum be in this breakaway and probably finish top five because he wants his points. Yeah, Quinn Simmons, I mean, he's just. I. I feel a little less confident in his ability to like automatically make a breakaway.

[Johan Berniel]

Well, I mean, listen, Quinn, Quinn Simmons has already given a lot. You know, he's. He's spent a lot. I mean, he's been in a lot of breaks. He's been working. Let's not forget he's still super young. Matthieu has, you know, obviously a better resistance.

[Spencer Martin]

He's.

[Johan Berniel]

He's a stronger, more, more, more. I mean, more endurance athletes because he's doing it so many years. So I think in the last week that comes to the forefront, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. All right, well, do you have anything else, Johan?

[Johan Berniel]

That's it.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, let's take off and we will not be back tomorrow. We'll be back on the rest day to preview stage 16.

[Johan Berniel]

Okay, thanks.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thank you.

[Johan Berniel]

Bye. Sat.