Tour de France Stage 16 Preview | OŪTCOMES

Summary

THEMOVE Podcast Summary: Tour de France Stage 16 Preview | OŪTCOMES
Release Date: July 21, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong

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Introduction

In the Tour de France Stage 16 Preview episode of THEMOVE, hosted by Lance Armstrong, the discussion centers around predicting the outcomes of Stage 16 of the Tour de France. Armstrong is joined by co-hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Brunel, who delve into the complexities of the upcoming stage, analyze rider performances, and explore betting strategies.

Overview of Stage 16

Spencer Martin sets the stage by outlining the specifics of Stage 16:

"First day out of the second and last rest day. 171km. It's basically 134km on rolling terrain to flat terrain into the hardest climb in pro cycling on Von 2 or that's debatable."
— Spencer Martin [01:04]

Johan Brunel concurs, emphasizing the difficulty of the Mont Ventoux climb:

"I agree with Lance. For me also, Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most. It's difficult to understand. It's like it's two climbs in one."
— Johan Brunel [00:49]

Mont Ventoux: The Ultimate Challenge

The Mont Ventoux climb is highlighted as a pivotal point in Stage 16. Johan describes its dual nature:

"You have the first nine kilometers that are really, really, really steep. And then you come to Charlotte and then it's open and it's still hard."
— Johan Brunel [03:03]

Spencer adds context about the environmental challenges:

"High, hot, windy, all that... it's the windy mountain."
— Spencer Martin [03:34]

Predictions and Betting Strategies

The hosts transition into predicting the stage outcome and discussing betting odds. They consider various riders' chances based on current form and stage profile.

Favorites for the Stage:

• Tade Pagacha (-230)
• Jonas Virtanen (+700)
• Florian Lipowitz (+2500)
• Timon Ahrensman (+2800)
• Lenny Martinez (+3300)
• Felix G (+4000)
• Mike Woods (+5000)
• Mateo Jorgensen (+5000)

Spencer outlines his primary pick:

"All UAE has to do is keep the break at five minutes."
— Spencer Martin [05:19]

Johan supports this strategy, suggesting that controlling the breakaway will be crucial:

"If you're in the break, as we saw the other day... Sepkus gets to the line in front of it."
— Johan Brunel [08:41]

They also discuss wild card bets, with Johan proposing Florian Lipowitz for the podium:

"Lipowitz for the podium plus 150 is going to be my wild card."
— Johan Brunel [09:40]

Head-to-Head Betting Highlights

The episode features a segment on head-to-head betting scenarios on FanDuel:

• Florian Lipowitz (-260) vs. Felix G (+186)
  • Spencer: "This is probably one of the more interesting battles of the stage." [12:20]
• Tade Pagacha (-700) vs. Jonas Virtanen (+390)
  • Spencer: "I might just bet on Pagacha for the stage win." [13:42]
• Sepkus (-164) vs. Simon Yates (+118)
  • Spencer: "Let's take Sepkus." [14:59]
• Lenny Martinez (-192) vs. Mike Woods (+100)
  • Johan: "Logically, Lenny should not try tomorrow." [15:24]
• Ben Healey (+118) vs. Carlos Rodriguez (-176)
  • Johan: "I think it's important for him and for the team to be top 10." [17:17]

The Green Jersey Race

A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the Green Jersey standings:

"Currently the standings are Jonathan Milan, 271 points. Tati Pagachar plus 253. Matthew Vanderpool plus 225."
— Spencer Martin [18:05]

Spencer expresses skepticism about Jonathan Milan's ability to secure the Green Jersey:

"I almost think it's going to be difficult for him to win this."
— Spencer Martin [19:02]

Johan anticipates a shift in the jersey competition:

"I think Bogachar wins the green jersey."
— Johan Brunel [19:11]

They analyze the point distribution and potential strategies that could influence the final standings, considering intermediate sprint points and stage finishes.

Conclusion

As the episode wraps up, Spencer and Johan reflect on their betting strategies and the unpredictable nature of cycling races:

"Most of these starts have been really unpredictable. Like, who would have thought this was even recognizable as a bike race."
— Spencer Martin [07:40]

They emphasize the importance of flexibility in their predictions and express anticipation for the upcoming stages.

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Notable Quotes:

• "Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb... it's like it's two climbs in one." — Johan Brunel [00:49]
• "All UAE has to do is keep the break at five minutes." — Spencer Martin [05:19]
• "I think Bogachar wins the green jersey." — Johan Brunel [19:11]

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This episode of THEMOVE provides an in-depth preview of Tour de France Stage 16, blending expert analysis with strategic betting insights. Armstrong and his co-hosts offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and the nuances that could influence the outcome of both the stage and the Green Jersey competition.

Transcript

[Spencer Martin]

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[Johan Brunel]

I agree with Lance. For me also, Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most. It's difficult to understand. It's like it's two climbs in one. You know, you have the first nine kilometers that are really, really, really steep.

[Spencer Martin]

And it's like a forest, right?

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, in the forest.

[Spencer Martin]

And.

[Johan Brunel]

And then you come to Charlotte and then it's open and it's still hard.

[Spencer Martin]

Hi, I'm Spencer Martin along with Johan Brunel and this is Outcomes. Outcomes is for informational entertainment purposes only. Nothing in this podcast should be considered financial advice. Please gamble responsibly and if you or someone you know has a gambling problem, seek help from a professional resource. Hosts and guests may have financial interest in the bets discussed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Everybody. Welcome back to Outcomes. I'm Spencer Martin. I'm here with Johan Berniel predicting stage 16 of the Tour de France. First day out of the second and last rest day. 171km. It's basically 134km on rolling terrain to flat terrain into the hardest climb in pro cycling on Von 2 or that's debatable. Lance Armstrong says it's the hardest. Well, we'll trust his word on this one. 16k long about almost 9% average with pitches significantly steeper than that. So very hard day critical for the gc. I will list off the favorites, then Johan and I will predict who's going to win and how it's going to play out. Before we do that, remember, we have a partner if you want to bet. Next, bets go to nxtbets.com betoutcomes it shows you where you can bet where you live, walks you through the process, shows you the best bets on each book. Sign up bonuses like bet $5 on FanDuel, get $150 free dollars. So if that sounds. If 150 free dollars sounds interesting to you, check out nxtbets.com Johan the favorite for the stage. If anyone wants to guess. Taddy forgot your minus 230. That's wild for a mountain stage. Jonas Vinegard plus 700 Florian Lipowitz plus 2500 Timon Arensman plus 2800 Lenny Martinez plus 3300. Felix Gall plus 4000 Mike woods plus 5000 Mateo Jorgensen plus 5000. It goes on and on. We'll call him out if we need to. But Johan, how do you think this is going to play out? I. I don't really know. And who do you think is going to win?

[Johan Brunel]

Well, I think the books are pretty clear. By the way, I, I agree with Lance. For me also, Mont Ventou is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most. It's difficult to understand. It's like it's two climbs in one. You know, you have the first nine kilometers that are really, really, really steep.

[Spencer Martin]

And it's like in a forest, right?

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, in the forest. And. And then you come to Charlotte and then it's open and it's still hard. So anyway, Mont Ventou, you know, and hot somehow.

[Spencer Martin]

High, hot, windy, all that.

[Johan Brunel]

It's the windy. It's the windy mountain. Right? Is wind in French. That could be a factor tomorrow apparently there's going to be strong winds. Could be headwind from. I mean, before that it's not really. It doesn't really matter, the wind because it's very protected. But once you get to Charlotte Renat, it's all open. So anyways, that epoga charge, winning this Spencer, I mean, it's. It's an easy stage to control for uae. The day after is, you know, a transition stage so they don't have to worry about that. They come off a rest day. And I think that, I mean, something tells me. I don't know if it's. If I'm right or not, but something tells me that he has this. These points where he has been defeated in the past. One of them was on the vaunt. I mean, he didn't lose the tour there, but he got dropped by Jonas Ringegaard. I mean, he came back afterwards. I think that's one of the things that he wants to win. Called the La Luz is in my opinion, also something he wants to win. So, yeah, since it's such a simple stage to control, I'm gonna go with that. Epogachar.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. His friend Moo would. Would suggest that that's correct. I'm kind of susceptible to that argument as well. I do think it means a lot. It's always hard to measure this. Like, how much does it mean to Tate Pigacha to win him on month 2? I have no idea. Does anyone know? Except for Tade? Maybe, maybe not. But it would seem a silly one to let slip through your fingers, especially with such a simple, straightforward run into it. I mean, really, all UAE has to do is what, Keep the break at five minutes.

[Johan Brunel]

All UAE needs to do is put. Put Neil spotted on the front.

[Spencer Martin]

That's it. Because the breakaway would need so much time to stay away, especially on a headwind. We were talking about that where headwind hurts attacking, but it also hurts the breakaway because it means if it's a tailwind, everyone's going fast. So the delta between a motivated group behind and the breakaway is less than a headwind. If you are hurting, you're going to be stuck in the mud and Bagatra is going to be ripping up behind you. I also think tied up A at minus 230. And if you do take a wild card today, make sure you weight that wild card much lower than normal because the chances are much less. Also, one wrinkle I was thinking about Johan. Jonathan Milan needs this sprint point. Lance and George think it's as simple as we just want to just put little track on the front, no breakaway, he'll win that sprint. I don't know if it's going to be that simple, but it's not simple.

[Johan Brunel]

It's not simple in, you know, the way we see the stages now, there's not been. I mean, it's always been 1 1/2 to 2 hours at 50k per hour. Yeah, it's not easy to control it. Also, of course, if the break goes 50 and the peloton goes 49, there's never big gaps and it takes a long time until the breakaway is established. So. But anyways, yeah, I mean, I would say the same as in. And we said the former podcast, you know, Jonathan Milan needs to go in the break. Something tells me that he's getting a bit tired and yeah, he looked gas yesterday. Vanderpool is going to be in the break, although I do have information that he's not really focusing on the green jersey. That's not the same as not being interested in the green jersey. It's a little. But that's not his main objective. He wants to win another stage. So.

[Spencer Martin]

So, yeah, combine those, just win the final stage in Paris. Boom. Done. Yeah, you're welcome, Matthew. There's your strategy. Yeah, well, we're actually going to talk about that after the break. I have some questions for you, but I think that set tells us like if Little Truck is at all interested in controlling this. UA is interested. It's just going to be hard for a breakaway to get away and win.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah. So I'm going get sufficient or to get sufficient advantage points, you know.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. Or like what if it's a four man break in UAE and little check say that's pretty good. Let's lock it down because we know we can catch four riders and the points behind those four riders are still pretty good at the intermediate sprint. I am, however, I am. I'm preparing in case of emergency. I don't want to be sitting here tomorrow saying, what were we thinking? I'm going to sprinkle a little bit of money on time. And Ahrensman plus 2800 is the wild card just in case a break does get away. These starts have been really unpredictable. Like, who would have. Like you turn on the TV yesterday and it's like that's not even recognizable as a bike race. You're like, what is happening right now? Just in case that continues to happen. Because I think, sure, there could be a break. There could be anybody in there. There's only like three riders strong enough in this race to stay away and win and aren'tman is one of them. So I'm picking him at 2800 just in case.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, that's a good. I mean, you know, it's covering another scenario. There's not that many riders that, you know, A, can go in the break and then B, even more, more important, can make it to the top of the line too. You know, it's.

[Spencer Martin]

You got to make it on the break on a flat opening, which is not easy for a climber.

[Johan Brunel]

No, but I, I like that. I like that. I mean, in case. But you know, the Ironsman will need to have, I don't know, five, six minutes at the bottom and still going to be a stretch.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. The thing about ineos is they are very committed to stage wins. Like they won stage 14, they missed a move on stage 15. They put their whole team on the front, keep that gap close enough that they can bridge two guys across like that's. That shows that like they'll have riders in there. With Orangeman driving that break tomorrow, who knows if it works? Probably not. But if it's just a small percentage, it's worth it at that price.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, I agree.

[Spencer Martin]

And do you have a wild card or are you passing on a wild card?

[Johan Brunel]

I'm not, I don't have a wild card. The only thing I can, I can see interesting to put some, a little bit of money in is Florian Lipovitz for the podium is positive plus 115. If, if, if it's all, I mean if it's the favorites and it will be probably then Florian Lipovitz in my opinion is the third strongest rider. And especially on a climb like the Montvantou, this is like this is for his type of riding. It's pushing, pushing, pushing. So yeah, Lipowitz for the podium plus 150 is going to be my, my wild card.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, it's a good idea. I actually like that because you could win both bets. You could win your stage and Lipowitz could be third. The thing about, I mean the thing we saw in Superbanier, Pagacha and Vinegar are going to be 1, 2 and Lipowitz looks like the third strongest rider in this race. So stands to reason he would be third tomorrow. I, I don't, I don't hate that pick. I like it. Plus 115 Lipowitz. Let's take a quick ad break, Johan, and then we'll get into head some head to heads. We got some really interesting ones and we'll touch again on that green jersey. But this episode of Outcomes is brought to you by Caldera Lab. Let's be honest, being a cycling, being a cyclist is not great for your skin, especially during the Tour de France months because your skin is exposed to summer sun on those big rides. But whether you're training for the Tour or you're up in Aspen cooking in the dry air or putting in those weekend miles, Caldera Lab has your back. Their high performance skincare is made specifically for men and a few of my favorites are their clean slate. It's their ph balance cleanser that uses probiotic ferments and plant based ingredients to gently clean and exfoliate my skin without drying me out. Also, the eye serum is a key building block for podcasters who wake up early in the morning to watch these stages and then have to go on Peacock afterward. And they don't want to look like a monster. So the eye serum is keeping those bags off my eyes as Much as you can. We're not, we're not promising perfection here when you're waking up at 4:30 every morning. And the base layer is their nutrient rich moist moisturizer that absorbs fast, hydrates deep and leads a clean matte finish. No shine, no grease. This is what is getting me through these dry days up in the high mountains. Without it, I might just dry up and blow away mid tour. So the base layer has been key. Skincare does not have to be complicated, but it should be good. Upgrade your routine with Caldera Lab and see the difference for yourself. Go to caldera lab.com themove and use code the move at checkout for 20% off your first order. Again, that's calderalab.com themove the link is in the show notes. All right, Johan, the head to heads on FanDuel in the US I'm sure you can find them anywhere if, if you are not in the US Florine Lipowitz minus 260 versus Felix G plus 186.

[Johan Brunel]

Gal looked good the other day, I have to say. Didn't he ride away from Lipwitz again at the end?

[Spencer Martin]

He did, but he wasn't marked and you have to because they weren't at the front of the race. Right. So if they're at the front of the race, what happens, I guess is the question.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, yeah, but Gal is coming. Gal is coming. It's not the same, you know, because he's. They're not going to let him go anymore now and he's going to have to race with the big guys. I have to go. Olympowitz.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. I mean if you thought this was golf and I guess in theory you should do golf for the podium at like plus 460. I mean, the thing is, Lipowitz almost caught Gall and Gall had a head start because he clipped off early. But yeah, this is actually, this is probably one of the more. More interesting battles of the stage. But we'll pinch you in, pencil you in for lipwoods. Tade Pagatra minus 700 versus Jonas Finnegaard plus 390. I might just bet on Pagatra for the stage win.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, yeah, minus because they're gonna race it anyway.

[Spencer Martin]

Minus 700.

[Johan Brunel]

Okay. No, I don't want.

[Spencer Martin]

You don't want to do that. Okay, next one. Sepkus minus 164 versus Simon Yates plus 118. Poof. And both these guys will be in the breakaway.

[Johan Brunel]

It's difficult, you know, I mean.

[Ryan Seacrest]

I.

[Johan Brunel]

Mean once they get caught then.

[Spencer Martin]

I.

[Johan Brunel]

Mean if they're in the break, as we saw the other day, which was a bit disappointing, which is why I'm thinking that there's something off with Visma. You know, both of those climbers, they're great climbers. They were in the break. They were not able to follow the best climbers of the break. That's already telling. And then when they got back to the. To the group of favorites, there's nothing they could do for Jonas. Maybe give a bottle. That's it, you know?

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunel]

I'm still gonna go Sepkus. Sepkus gets to the line in front of it. And also, I mean, once they get. Once they get caught, then they're probably going to go up easy.

[Spencer Martin]

The thing is. Sup? Goose never really goes up as easy as Simon Yates, so that would be one reason to pick Goose.

[Johan Brunel]

Okay. Yeah, let's take Sepkus. Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

So Lenny Martinez, the most tired man in the world, minus 192 versus Mike woods, plus 100.

[Johan Brunel]

I think it makes no sense for Lenny Martinez tomorrow to. To.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah, there's no points to grab.

[Johan Brunel]

Not going to be top 10. Not Lenny or not Mike woods, unless they're in a break and the break gets far enough ahead. So for Lenny, doesn't make sense. If he still wants to have a go for the polka dots. He needs to get in breaks where there's mountains before the last climb, you know, so the two. The two other mountain stages, he needs to get on top on the first climb and the second climb in both of those stages, and then he can win. He can win the pocket up.

[Spencer Martin]

So what he really needs to do is rest until stage 18 and win stage 18, because that's how someone's going to win it.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah, well, you know, if. If he gets. If he gets over those. I mean, there's three climbs in every. In every stage, you know, 18 and 19. If he gets first over both of the first climbs and then he's not going to be there for the last climb, can he win it?

[Spencer Martin]

Maybe because it's double points at Lowe's. So if he gets the two HC climbs before, he's probably finishing roughly on par with Pugachar, who's going to win that stage. And so, yeah, he probably still would be in it. Well, I guess the complicated thing is if Pugachar wins this, then he'll have to get in the breakaway on stage 19. Yeah, but there are point. A lot of points on offer before.

[Johan Brunel]

I mean, logically, Lenny should not try tomorrow.

[Spencer Martin]

It's a terrible stage for him.

[Johan Brunel]

If that's if that's his goal. So we're going to say Mack Woods.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. All, all his team has to do is send someone up the road to beat Pagacha for the win and keep from getting those points. Wouldn't be too hard. You could, you could hear that I bet. Argument on a few cycling podcasts. Ben Healey plus 118 versus Carlos Rodriguez minus 176.

[Johan Brunel]

Carlos looked not bad. You know, Carlos is in front of Ben Healy now in the D.C. i guess, barely.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah.

[Johan Brunel]

I think we have to go with Ben Healy. He's just, I mean, he's. I think it's important for him and for the team to be top 10. It's also. It's equally important for Carlos, but. Well, let's go. Let's go. Carlos Rodriguez, I think he's okay. He's a more pure climber than Van Healy.

[Spencer Martin]

Looked good yesterday.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay. Oscar only. Minus 350 versus Primus Roglich plus 240. That's wild. That, that's the line.

[Johan Brunel]

Oscar only.

[Spencer Martin]

All right. Tobias Holland Johansson minus 350 versus Kevin Vauclan plus 240. Johanneson. Okay. All right. So before we go, Johan, Green jersey. This is fascinating. This listener, Jim Balinsky sent me a model he's created to figure out who's going to win this thing. Currently the standings are Jonathan Milan, 271 points. Tati Pagachar plus 253. Matthew Vanderpool plus 225. And if you go over to FanDuel, the odds are Milan minus 320. Picachar plus 500. Matthew Vanderpoel plus 500. So Milan's the heavy, heavy favorite, but to me, Milan looks just about cooked. Like. I almost think it's going to be difficult for him to win this. But what do you think?

[Johan Brunel]

How many, how many points are for a mountain. Mountain. Mountain stage. Is it 20?

[Spencer Martin]

So normal. Normally it's 20. Tomorrow is 30.

[Johan Brunel]

30.

[Spencer Martin]

And the final stage is. Is 50. Yeah, because.

[Johan Brunel]

And I think Bogachar wins the green jersey.

[Spencer Martin]

Okay, I, I agree. And I, we took a bath up here. We, we got some information from Gabriel about a fight and we, we put all our DraftKings money into that and lost, of course. So we need, we need this plus 500 to pan out. Okay. I think this is how we get back on top. But I, I think so too, Johan, because I don't think Milan gets intermediate points tomorrow. I don't think he gets them on 17. I think you can Easily look at these profiles and say, hey, it's just 30k after it starts. All you have to do is get in the breakaway. It's going to be wild on these mountain stages, what these starts are like. He might not get an intermediate sprint point until Paris and then he has to win the stage, which I don't know if he can do, probably.

[Johan Brunel]

What if. Although, you know, the last stage is. It's different. I mean, it's not a one day race. Right, so. But still, if. If Matthieu is still in the running for the green jersey on the last stage, he's going to go ballistic on mo MRE and there's no way Milan can follow him.

[Spencer Martin]

Well, if he's in contention, he's going to get second to Milan at the intermediate sprint. So he's only going to lose three points.

[Johan Brunel]

Yeah.

[Spencer Martin]

What's. Is Vanderpoel going to get every intermediate sprint point from here on in is my concern.

[Johan Brunel]

Well, if he's in the break, which he has been doing, we've seen now, the last two times he was in the break, he got the points without even contesting them. They just let him take the points.

[Spencer Martin]

Yeah. And on stages 18 and 19, it's just the start of the climb, so he would, in theory just have to get in the. I know, I just said this is harder than it sounds. He would just have to get in the breakaway, get those, and then he could drop back and be in the Groupetto the rest of the day. Yeah, that's my concern, is that he hoovers up these intermediate points, but if he doesn't, then it actually gets hard for him. Okay, forgot chart plus 500. All right, anything else, Johan, before we take off?

[Johan Brunel]

That's it for me, Spencer.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, thank you. And we will be back tomorrow to predict that stage.

[Johan Brunel]

Okay.

[Spencer Martin]

All right, bye.

[Ryan Seacrest]

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[Spencer Martin]

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