THEMOVE Podcast Summary: Tour de France Stage 16 Preview | OŪTCOMES
Release Date: July 21, 2025
Host: Lance Armstrong
Introduction
In the Tour de France Stage 16 Preview episode of THEMOVE, hosted by Lance Armstrong, the discussion centers around predicting the outcomes of Stage 16 of the Tour de France. Armstrong is joined by co-hosts Spencer Martin and Johan Brunel, who delve into the complexities of the upcoming stage, analyze rider performances, and explore betting strategies.
Overview of Stage 16
Spencer Martin sets the stage by outlining the specifics of Stage 16:
"First day out of the second and last rest day. 171km. It's basically 134km on rolling terrain to flat terrain into the hardest climb in pro cycling on Von 2 or that's debatable."
— Spencer Martin [01:04]
Johan Brunel concurs, emphasizing the difficulty of the Mont Ventoux climb:
"I agree with Lance. For me also, Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb. I mean, especially because it's the most. It's difficult to understand. It's like it's two climbs in one."
— Johan Brunel [00:49]
Mont Ventoux: The Ultimate Challenge
The Mont Ventoux climb is highlighted as a pivotal point in Stage 16. Johan describes its dual nature:
"You have the first nine kilometers that are really, really, really steep. And then you come to Charlotte and then it's open and it's still hard."
— Johan Brunel [03:03]
Spencer adds context about the environmental challenges:
"High, hot, windy, all that... it's the windy mountain."
— Spencer Martin [03:34]
Predictions and Betting Strategies
The hosts transition into predicting the stage outcome and discussing betting odds. They consider various riders' chances based on current form and stage profile.
Favorites for the Stage:
- Tade Pagacha (-230)
- Jonas Virtanen (+700)
- Florian Lipowitz (+2500)
- Timon Ahrensman (+2800)
- Lenny Martinez (+3300)
- Felix G (+4000)
- Mike Woods (+5000)
- Mateo Jorgensen (+5000)
Spencer outlines his primary pick:
"All UAE has to do is keep the break at five minutes."
— Spencer Martin [05:19]
Johan supports this strategy, suggesting that controlling the breakaway will be crucial:
"If you're in the break, as we saw the other day... Sepkus gets to the line in front of it."
— Johan Brunel [08:41]
They also discuss wild card bets, with Johan proposing Florian Lipowitz for the podium:
"Lipowitz for the podium plus 150 is going to be my wild card."
— Johan Brunel [09:40]
Head-to-Head Betting Highlights
The episode features a segment on head-to-head betting scenarios on FanDuel:
- Florian Lipowitz (-260) vs. Felix G (+186)
- Spencer: "This is probably one of the more interesting battles of the stage." [12:20]
- Tade Pagacha (-700) vs. Jonas Virtanen (+390)
- Spencer: "I might just bet on Pagacha for the stage win." [13:42]
- Sepkus (-164) vs. Simon Yates (+118)
- Spencer: "Let's take Sepkus." [14:59]
- Lenny Martinez (-192) vs. Mike Woods (+100)
- Johan: "Logically, Lenny should not try tomorrow." [15:24]
- Ben Healey (+118) vs. Carlos Rodriguez (-176)
- Johan: "I think it's important for him and for the team to be top 10." [17:17]
The Green Jersey Race
A significant portion of the discussion revolves around the Green Jersey standings:
"Currently the standings are Jonathan Milan, 271 points. Tati Pagachar plus 253. Matthew Vanderpool plus 225."
— Spencer Martin [18:05]
Spencer expresses skepticism about Jonathan Milan's ability to secure the Green Jersey:
"I almost think it's going to be difficult for him to win this."
— Spencer Martin [19:02]
Johan anticipates a shift in the jersey competition:
"I think Bogachar wins the green jersey."
— Johan Brunel [19:11]
They analyze the point distribution and potential strategies that could influence the final standings, considering intermediate sprint points and stage finishes.
Conclusion
As the episode wraps up, Spencer and Johan reflect on their betting strategies and the unpredictable nature of cycling races:
"Most of these starts have been really unpredictable. Like, who would have thought this was even recognizable as a bike race."
— Spencer Martin [07:40]
They emphasize the importance of flexibility in their predictions and express anticipation for the upcoming stages.
Notable Quotes:
- "Mont Ventoux is the hardest climb... it's like it's two climbs in one." — Johan Brunel [00:49]
- "All UAE has to do is keep the break at five minutes." — Spencer Martin [05:19]
- "I think Bogachar wins the green jersey." — Johan Brunel [19:11]
This episode of THEMOVE provides an in-depth preview of Tour de France Stage 16, blending expert analysis with strategic betting insights. Armstrong and his co-hosts offer listeners a comprehensive understanding of the race dynamics, key contenders, and the nuances that could influence the outcome of both the stage and the Green Jersey competition.